It's possible. It requires the remaining Conservative vote in Clapton to go over to Reform, so it becomes a Labour / Reform marginal. Not a slam dunk in my view and not a situation that is easily replicable elsewhere - the current Reform support isn't big enough for that.
The election where Carswell got in as UKIP is worth looking at -
Party Candidate Votes UKIP Douglas Carswell 19,642 Conservative Giles Watling 16,205 Labour Tim Young 6,364 Green Chris Southall 1,184 Liberal Democrats David Grace 812
Vs last election
Party Candidate Votes Conservative Giles Watling 31,438 Labour Kevin Bonavia 6,736 Liberal Democrats Callum Robertson 2,541 Green Chris Southall 1,225 Independent Andy Morgan 1,099 Independent Colin Bennett 243 Monster Raving Loony Just-John Sexton 224
Carswell was a popular and active local MP.
FWIW I don't think Farage can win Clacton, not does he want to. Five years of being a sole invisible Reform backbencher dealing with the good people of Jaywick's complaints about buses, pensions, library books, bingo nights, ice-cream vans, the snobbishness of Frinton, the cashless society, foreigners, dogs and neighbours. I don't think so.
The secret of Farage's success as a an effective politician is actually because he is perceived to care about these door step issues
No, the secret of his success is moaning about the modern world to a bunch of other pub bores, and never having run even a whelk stall. It's easy being a critic, hard actually doing anything.
TBF to the gent, wasn't he a commodities trader for some years?
He can certainly outshine the chuckle brothers by a mile
I have to wonder how much longer Sunak will carry on going on TV and parroting the line ‘anything but a vote for me is a vote for Starmer’. It is pretty clear that not many people consider he has a hope of winning so it sounds desperate and hollow.
Most people on here know that because of polls etc . You will be surprised at the level of ignorance there is in the general public about politics .
Jesus wept! The Deltapoll has VI for 18 to 24 yo of 81% for Labour!!
Natty Serves proving popular....
Nobody in that age group would be impacted by it.
Speak to them about it though. They hate the idea. They don't like being told that their degrees are "Mickey Mouse" either.
Interesting you should talk about a Micky Mouse degree. They interviewed someone from Bristol about their BA course in Circus Arts.
I loved the idea!
We can't all be ballroom dancers
They take this stuff more seriously in France. My neighbour over there had a clowning degree having studied under the great someone or other at some elite clowning academy.
I have to wonder how much longer Sunak will carry on going on TV and parroting the line ‘anything but a vote for me is a vote for Starmer’. It is pretty clear that not many people consider he has a hope of winning so it sounds desperate and hollow.
Most people on here know that because of polls etc . You will be surprised at the level of ignorance there is in the general public about politics .
Most of the public struggle to name ministers / shadow ministers.
Does anyone know why George Galloway isn't even getting a mention on the MRPs?
Everywhere I look Rochdale is shown as a safe Labour hold, but no mention of The Workers Party at all. Do they just ignore them as they've not got the data?
I see one of their candidates contested the same seat for UKIP a few elections back, which is an interesting journey.
Not much of a journey at all, judging by Galloway’s policy positions on 99% of topics.
Shogun is the best tv series I have seen this year.
Just a good story, and there is actual unpredictable danger of leading characters. Nobody is safe.
And if "woke" stuff in modern tv / film (looks at Leon) something that really grinds your gears, there is none. No needless race or gender swapping characters, no Mary Sue girl bossing, no box ticking the character list to ensure it fits the awarding bodies criteria.
Where as Assassin Creed video game seems to have walked straight into this minefield with their future game set in a similar time period.
I missed the film of the Leeanderthal Man and Nigel Farage in the charabanc at (I think) the Rifle Volunteer in Ashfield.
Interesting pub to choose - chemical beer only if my info is still accurate, and noisy, middle-aged, bald customer base.
In Ashfield Labour still on at 8-13 ->2-5, Reform have come in slightly to 3-1 ish. Ashfield Independents at about the same on 9-2. Tories out at 20-1 in a range of 10-1 to 33-1.
Where's the value - not sure but perhaps on the lay side?
Shogun is the best tv series I have seen this year.
Just a good story, and there is actual unpredictable danger of leading characters. Nobody is safe.
And if "woke" stuff in modern tv / film (looks at Leon) something that really grinds your gears, there is none. No needless race or gender swapping characters, no Mary Sue girl bossing, no box ticking the character list to ensure it fits the awarding bodies criteria.
Where as Assassin Creed video game seems to have walked straight into this minefield with their future game set in a similar time period.
what channel /site is it on
Disney+ (but it was made by FX who obviously made great shows like Justified, Sons of Anarchy, The Shield). Its not like most of the Disney+ shitfest.
Angie Rayner confirms she has not changed her position on Trident. Snicker. Red Queen on maneuveres
If true one of Starmer Rayner has to resign
Why?
He's hopecasting. Yet again. She doesn't need to resign. She backs Trident. I think in an ideal world she would support multilateral disarmament. But wouldn't we all?
"Wouldn't we all".
Jesus H Christ no!
Why the hell should we support disarmament that allows a rogue state like Russia to arm themselves and leave us defenceless?
What a suicidally stupid idea.
The clue is in the term multilateral.
The clue is in the term rogue.
So Russia claims it will disarm, we actually do, they don't. Or they surreptitiously re-arm. Now what?
Who the hell is bloody stupid enough to trust the Russians or Chinese on anything so important?
Multilateral disarmament died when nothing was done about the “coach and horses” violation of the Biological Weapons Treaty by the USSR.
Multilateral disarmament was never a serious idea.
Its game theory.
If everyone else disarms and you don't, then you can defeat everyone else. If you disarm and others don't, then you can be defeated.
So there is no rational reason to disarm. Especially for rogue states that don't give a shit about what you think about that. And we need to be ready to defend ourselves from those rogue states.
Multilateral, verified, disarmed worked. For nuclear weapons. As Herman Kahn predicted*.
When it became clear that the USSR had ignored the Biological Weapons treaty, nothing was done. If the Americans had said “OK, we are going to put a full load of MIRVs back on the missiles, and double conventional forces in Europe”, then disarmament would have survived.
But US Presidents were too busy trying to “build a relationship with Russia”. And then found there were no votes in the Senate for further treaties.
*American nuclear strategy from the late 60s to the end of the Cold War was cribbed directly from Kahn. Given that “On Thermonuclear War” is simply a copy of the lecturers and briefings he gave at the Pentagon…
Jesus wept! The Deltapoll has VI for 18 to 24 yo of 81% for Labour!!
Natty Serves proving popular....
Reform should look at some of the policies that parties on the continent are using to attract younger voters and try to outflank the Tories.
That is one way that we are unlike our continental neighbours. Our youngsters are on the other side of this Tory culture war, particularly the women. Reform is the only party in Britain with even worse age demographics than the Tories. Its double or quits on a losing hand.
In part I think it that migration to Britain is 75 years old, but much more recent on the continent, so our youngsters have always known it, and our communities less segregated. Partly it is much lower unemployment particularly amongst the young.
All the polling confirms this. Britons are one of the least racist nations in Europe, and numbers citing immigration as an issue much lower than old codgers like @Leon, or indeed the PB Median.
Older liberals equating opposition to immigration with racism is quite self-serving because their financial interests are served by importing workers, but the financial interests of the young are different.
I don't think you're right on the history either. There was post-war immigration to France, Germany, the Netherlands, etc, as well. What was unique about the UK was the fairly long period from the late 1960s to the late 1990s when net migration was around zero and it became a fringe issue.
As much as you try to blame the younger generations problems on migration, that is bullshit. Our population is growing at a very slow rate compared to historical norms.
The problem is the lack of construction, not migration.
Especially since even without migration we'd still need construction that we aren't getting anyway.
A family of 4 moving into the country only need one house between them. 6 grandchildren growing up and becoming adults require 6 houses between them.
In the past decade our over 50s population has grown (net) by more than net migration. That's the real main reason why we need so many more houses
Does anyone know why George Galloway isn't even getting a mention on the MRPs?
Everywhere I look Rochdale is shown as a safe Labour hold, but no mention of The Workers Party at all. Do they just ignore them as they've not got the data?
None of the indies or workers are being properly taken into account despite the Locals and mayoralties. Adjust expectations according to your own research
Curiously you can bet on the constituency on Betfair, but no sign of Galloway there either.
Shogun is the best tv series I have seen this year.
Just a good story, and there is actual unpredictable danger of leading characters. Nobody is safe.
And if "woke" stuff in modern tv / film (looks at Leon) something that really grinds your gears, there is none. No needless race or gender swapping characters, no Mary Sue girl bossing, no box ticking the character list to ensure it fits the awarding bodies criteria.
Where as Assassin Creed video game seems to have walked straight into this minefield with their future game set in a similar time period.
what channel /site is it on
Disney+ (but it was made by FX who obviously made great shows like Justified, Sons of Anarchy, The Shield). Its not like most of the Disney+ shitfest.
Angie Rayner confirms she has not changed her position on Trident. Snicker. Red Queen on maneuveres
If true one of Starmer Rayner has to resign
Why?
He's hopecasting. Yet again. She doesn't need to resign. She backs Trident. I think in an ideal world she would support multilateral disarmament. But wouldn't we all?
Just wondering which is the bigger crisis for Labour - 20mph zones (esp. now the locals have started deciding they quite like them after all, and while we await the first deaths in 20 restored to 30 mph) or this?
PS Not a reflection on BigG s\pecifically but the UK political scene and media generally.
Is there data on that?
(As a contrast there is currently a large LTN in Exeter at risk of being cancelled.
All the usual poisonous local politics, but the 'consultation' was 80% against continuing.
It's a strange one - an LTN with 17k people in it, which seems impractically large to me. Better to be smaller in several pieces with physical modal filters like every new housing estate snice 1965, rather driving it from technology.)
EATF funding rounds encouraged councils to go big, quickly. It's a similar story in Oxford - it would have caused much less heartache to put in LTNs one-by-one, as they historically have been, rather than slapping them all down in a couple of tranches.
There was a food festival on Magdalen Road, the achingly trendy East Oxford street with an LTN, last weekend. The anti-LTN party had a stall. At a festival that was only made possible by an LTN.
My favourite LTN story from Oxford was the prominent anti-LTN campaigner who whines about not being able to get anywhere, and had a sidestreet next to his restaurant closed off so that people can sit outside.
Worth noting the MRPs VI from YG and MiC are much more in line with the adjuster averages than the nowcaster averages. As were previous YG MRPs..... let's see what the likes of Survation etc find in MRPs. I think focaldata have an MRP tomorrow, a normal poll if not
I'm seeing enough to move the probable Lab majority up to 150-175 from 75-100. Largely due to the tone-deaf and at times frankly incompetent Con GE campaign. I'm no fan of the No 10 munchkins but even I can't believe how poor they have been.
It should be noted that YouGov DO re-assign don't knows on their MRP polls. The MoreInCommon MRP was conducted through May including the pre-election period and it is pretty clear that the Cons have continued to drift since the local elections. Gaining a few Reform voters does not help if Lab have gained more.
Cons on 150 looks about right to me.
Good post. Well argued. Sensible.
I predicted
CON180 LAB379 LDM48 REF0 GRN1 SNP21 PLD4
From
CON33 LAB39 LDM16 REF3 GRN3 SNP3
Today’s MRPs with far wider polling gaps are spectacularly rubbish with how effectively 60% LLG will tactically vote in this Genny Lec, despite all the evidence from all the actual elections this parliament. If these MRPs are in paper copy, drop them in a bin.
PS this is the first time I have used the phrase Genny Lec, I dedicate this one to Anabob.
CON 180 LAB 379 on a 33-39 split is quite plausible cos we know the swing will be greater in the marginals.
In 1997 it was CON 165 LAB 419 on a 11% LAB lead for this reason.
But if the Reform unwind and Con Swingback up to 33 doesn’t happen, and Labour do poll as high as 43% - they DEFINITELY won’t poll higher than that - 25-43 with the surgical tactical voting could take it way below 180 for Conservatives. 🫣
They should have dumped Rishi. He shouldn’t even be in politics. He wasn’t even any good at Chancellor. He’s the psychology of someone no one has ever said “no you Can’t have that” to his entire life. It’s his decision making, and the decision making of those he has surrounded himself with, that can needlessly cost Conservatives 100 or More seats!
Shogun is the best tv series I have seen this year.
Just a good story, and there is actual unpredictable danger of leading characters. Nobody is safe.
And if "woke" stuff in modern tv / film (looks at Leon) something that really grinds your gears, there is none. No needless race or gender swapping characters, no Mary Sue girl bossing, no box ticking the character list to ensure it fits the awarding bodies criteria.
Where as Assassin Creed video game seems to have walked straight into this minefield with their future game set in a similar time period.
what channel /site is it on
Disney+ (but it was made by FX who obviously made great shows like Justified, Sons of Anarchy, The Shield). Its not like most of the Disney+ shitfest.
Cheers
It based on a book that is a fictionalised set of stories of a real guy. The actual real story is crazier than the fiction.
Does anyone know why George Galloway isn't even getting a mention on the MRPs?
Everywhere I look Rochdale is shown as a safe Labour hold, but no mention of The Workers Party at all. Do they just ignore them as they've not got the data?
None of the indies or workers are being properly taken into account despite the Locals and mayoralties. Adjust expectations according to your own research
Curiously you can bet on the constituency on Betfair, but no sign of Galloway there either.
Does anyone know why George Galloway isn't even getting a mention on the MRPs?
Everywhere I look Rochdale is shown as a safe Labour hold, but no mention of The Workers Party at all. Do they just ignore them as they've not got the data?
None of the indies or workers are being properly taken into account despite the Locals and mayoralties. Adjust expectations according to your own research
Curiously you can bet on the constituency on Betfair, but no sign of Galloway there either.
Off topic: Those interested in Boeing's failures may want to read a long article in yesterday's Seattle Times, by Dominic Gates, who has been covering Boeing approximately forever. (And well, as far as I can tell.) Gates has much from a senior quality control engineer, Martin Bickeboller, who is quitting (and suing Boeing). In his first 27 years with the company, the engineer's lawyer says his devotion to safety never conflicted with his loyalty to Boeing, but then things changed, gradually.
Angie Rayner confirms she has not changed her position on Trident. Snicker. Red Queen on maneuveres
If true one of Starmer Rayner has to resign
Why?
He's hopecasting. Yet again. She doesn't need to resign. She backs Trident. I think in an ideal world she would support multilateral disarmament. But wouldn't we all?
"Wouldn't we all".
Jesus H Christ no!
Why the hell should we support disarmament that allows a rogue state like Russia to arm themselves and leave us defenceless?
What a suicidally stupid idea.
The clue is in the term multilateral.
The clue is in the term rogue.
So Russia claims it will disarm, we actually do, they don't. Or they surreptitiously re-arm. Now what?
Who the hell is bloody stupid enough to trust the Russians or Chinese on anything so important?
Multilateral disarmament died when nothing was done about the “coach and horses” violation of the Biological Weapons Treaty by the USSR.
Multilateral disarmament was never a serious idea.
Its game theory.
If everyone else disarms and you don't, then you can defeat everyone else. If you disarm and others don't, then you can be defeated.
So there is no rational reason to disarm. Especially for rogue states that don't give a shit about what you think about that. And we need to be ready to defend ourselves from those rogue states.
Multilateral, verified, disarmed worked. For nuclear weapons. As Herman Kahn predicted*.
When it became clear that the USSR had ignored the Biological Weapons treaty, nothing was done. If the Americans had said “OK, we are going to put a full load of MIRVs back on the missiles, and double conventional forces in Europe”, then disarmament would have survived.
But US Presidents were too busy trying to “build a relationship with Russia”. And then found there were no votes in the Senate for further treaties.
*American nuclear strategy from the late 60s to the end of the Cold War was cribbed directly from Kahn. Given that “On Thermonuclear War” is simply a copy of the lecturers and briefings he gave at the Pentagon…
I see no evidence any form of multilateral disarmament worked. The USSR and USA both remained armed to the back teeth with enough nukes to annihilate the world regardless of any form of disarmament.
Does anyone know why George Galloway isn't even getting a mention on the MRPs?
Everywhere I look Rochdale is shown as a safe Labour hold, but no mention of The Workers Party at all. Do they just ignore them as they've not got the data?
None of the indies or workers are being properly taken into account despite the Locals and mayoralties. Adjust expectations according to your own research
Curiously you can bet on the constituency on Betfair, but no sign of Galloway there either.
Does anyone know why George Galloway isn't even getting a mention on the MRPs?
Everywhere I look Rochdale is shown as a safe Labour hold, but no mention of The Workers Party at all. Do they just ignore them as they've not got the data?
None of the indies or workers are being properly taken into account despite the Locals and mayoralties. Adjust expectations according to your own research
Curiously you can bet on the constituency on Betfair, but no sign of Galloway there either.
How low the Tories have sunk..... shitting themselves about a man who has failed to be elected 7 times and is not popular in polling with voters to any eye catching extent. Utter Clowns.
He's about 25 points more popular with their own voters than Sunak!
Shogun is the best tv series I have seen this year.
Just a good story, and there is actual unpredictable danger of leading characters. Nobody is safe.
And if "woke" stuff in modern tv / film (looks at Leon) something that really grinds your gears, there is none. No needless race or gender swapping characters, no Mary Sue girl bossing, no box ticking the character list to ensure it fits the awarding bodies criteria.
Where as Assassin Creed video game seems to have walked straight into this minefield with their future game set in a similar time period.
what channel /site is it on
Instead of being told from the Western perspective, it’s updated to be told from the Japanese perspective, and full of top Japanese acting talent. This puts the emphasis on the political manoeuvres rather than “Englishman abroad” hokum.
Does anyone know why George Galloway isn't even getting a mention on the MRPs?
Everywhere I look Rochdale is shown as a safe Labour hold, but no mention of The Workers Party at all. Do they just ignore them as they've not got the data?
None of the indies or workers are being properly taken into account despite the Locals and mayoralties. Adjust expectations according to your own research
Curiously you can bet on the constituency on Betfair, but no sign of Galloway there either.
I expect it to go back to Labour. Suspect GG won't bother campaigning - he only sees it as worth it if the TV cameras are on him.
He launched his campaign there Saturday evening.
Remains to be seen how much effort he puts in.
He's aiming for at minimum 200,000 votes across the UK to get State support levels for the WPB, the WPB crowdfunder is running at about 34% of the 100 grand target and he's standing about 350 candidates. He will make the effort.
I missed the film of the Leeanderthal Man and Nigel Farage in the charabanc at (I think) the Rifle Volunteer in Ashfield.
Interesting pub to choose - chemical beer only if my info is still accurate, and noisy, middle-aged, bald customer base.
In Ashfield Labour still on at 8-13 ->2-5, Reform have come in slightly to 3-1 ish. Ashfield Independents at about the same on 9-2. Tories out at 20-1 in a range of 10-1 to 33-1.
Where's the value - not sure but perhaps on the lay side?
I think Reform might win that - The local indie has a good base but he is controversial in some eyes and also boundary changes never are good for indies who need to build some new wards up from scratch .Indie vote to swing to reform which might let reform win
1. More voters are naming Rishi Sunak as a reason they have changed their mind, and he is coming more to the surface as a hesitation amongst voters for voting Tory. In the words of one voter, they changed their mind because of “what people have been saying about rishi all over social media”
2. National Service: it led to a more negative perception of the Conservatives with all voters, with 32% saying it had a more negative impact on their view than a positive one (23%). It was only *net neutral* for those Tories who now say they don’t know, pushed switchers further to Labour, and only marginally helped with Con-to-Reform switchers”
The Tories are doomed. And PB was right about National Service.
Shogun is the best tv series I have seen this year.
Just a good story, and there is actual unpredictable danger of leading characters. Nobody is safe.
And if "woke" stuff in modern tv / film (looks at Leon) something that really grinds your gears, there is none. No needless race or gender swapping characters, no Mary Sue girl bossing, no box ticking the character list to ensure it fits the awarding bodies criteria.
Where as Assassin Creed video game seems to have walked straight into this minefield with their future game set in a similar time period.
what channel /site is it on
Instead of being told from the Western perspective, it’s updated to be told from the Japanese perspective, and full of top Japanese acting talent. This puts the emphasis on the political manoeuvres rather than “Englishman abroad” hokum.
I thought it was great that 90% of it is in Japanese. It would have been so much easier for American market just to do the classic everybody speaks English (even when they know they are conversing in another language) most of the time.
Shogun is the best tv series I have seen this year.
Just a good story, and there is actual unpredictable danger of leading characters. Nobody is safe.
And if "woke" stuff in modern tv / film (looks at Leon) something that really grinds your gears, there is none. No needless race or gender swapping characters, no Mary Sue girl bossing, no box ticking the character list to ensure it fits the awarding bodies criteria.
Where as Assassin Creed video game seems to have walked straight into this minefield with their future game set in a similar time period.
what channel /site is it on
Instead of being told from the Western perspective, it’s updated to be told from the Japanese perspective, and full of top Japanese acting talent. This puts the emphasis on the political manoeuvres rather than “Englishman abroad” hokum.
Adds you to the post-election 'Farage special list'. As if other countries have agency without a stout yeoman quaffing a pint and gurning for a camera.
Goodwins loser polling says Exclusive polling from People Polling for GB News: Labour - 46 per cent Conservatives - 22 per cent Reform - 10 per cent Liberal Democrats - 8 per cent Green - 8 per cent
This MRP frankly shows how absurd the other one was. The lead is even greater but the Tories win 3x as many seats! 66 was just ludicrous. Don't know what had gone wrong there. These are much more believable.
looking into the detail there's a lot of seats which they refer to as 'tossup':(less than 5%)
if they lost most of the tossup seats they could be in a similar position to the other one.
That table accords with my assessment: Conservatives should probably win 40 seats or more, except in the direst circumstances. Maybe 120 further seats are statistical toss ups on current polling.
In summary, the Conservatives could easily get 40 seats if the polling goes further against them even slightly. The trend is still negative. Note they will lose their previously safest seats to the Lib Dems as well as to Labour in that situation.
I would also say 160 seats is toppy on current polling. On a win some, lose some basis I would expect a lower number than that
What did you expect? Pre tournament football is ALWAYS pointless. Players trying to avoid injury for the most part. Manager has picked the team for the first game already.
Ok so in among the UK campaign and a busy run of int'l elecs (SA & Mex done, Belgium & Euros on Sun), tomorrow sees the vote count in India, likely to be very fast if 2014/19 are anything to go by, with electronic counting.
Looks like counting starts 8am local time (3.30 UK) so I will be attempting to get up early, watch the first few hours then go into work
Obv almost certainly a 3rd Modi term, barring an epic polling failure.
Seems the grown ups are having an evening off editing the BBC News front page. Major stories on meme stocks, Sidemen reality tv shows and a raisin found up a toddlers nose. Its like reading the Sun.
ON topic. Does 3 Body Problem speed up? I’m halfway through episode 2 and it’s a slog. Does it get better?
If not, what else to watch?
The Expanse is a favourite of mine if you want hard sci-fi. I’m also enjoying Dark Matter.
Dark Matter is a great sci-fi read, albeit with a misleading title. I've not seen the TV series yet but looking forward to doing so.
I've not read the Dark Matter book, but am enjoying the series and - rather in reverse - now looking forward to the book.
(There is also an older Canadian sci-fi series called 'Dark Matter' which is well worth a go if you're after a bit more light-hearted character-driven scifi. Takes a couple of episodes to find it's feet - but then it's really quite enjoyable)
Jesus wept! The Deltapoll has VI for 18 to 24 yo of 81% for Labour!!
Natty Serves proving popular....
Nobody in that age group would be impacted by it.
Speak to them about it though. They hate the idea. They don't like being told that their degrees are "Mickey Mouse" either.
Interesting you should talk about a Micky Mouse degree. They interviewed someone from Bristol about their BA course in Circus Arts.
I loved the idea!
We can't all be ballroom dancers
They take this stuff more seriously in France. My neighbour over there had a clowning degree having studied under the great someone or other at some elite clowning academy.
Not sure on that about Circus Skills being Mickey Mouse - we have a big arts spectaculars scene here which that feeds into, a lot of films made etc.
Even the stuff we were talking about the other day on eg wake boarding are adjacent physical skills.
When I lived in Chiswick I knew someone who had married a reasonably famous ballerina by dint of being on the stage staff at the Royal Ballet; I watched her sance Swan Lake at the Royal Albert Hall as a guest. The sort of thing that generally does not happen in Ashfield or Bolsover !
Ok so in among the UK campaign and a busy run of int'l elecs (SA & Mex done, Belgium & Euros on Sun), tomorrow sees the vote count in India, likely to be very fast if 2014/19 are anything to go by, with electronic counting.
Looks like counting starts 8am local time (3.30 UK) so I will be attempting to get up early, watch the first few hours then go into work
Obv almost certainly a 3rd Modi term, barring an epic polling failure.
How low the Tories have sunk..... shitting themselves about a man who has failed to be elected 7 times and is not popular in polling with voters to any eye catching extent. Utter Clowns.
He's about 25 points more popular with their own voters than Sunak!
Nah, not amongst current VI He's more popular with 2019 Tories as a whole though
Jesus wept! The Deltapoll has VI for 18 to 24 yo of 81% for Labour!!
Natty Serves proving popular....
Reform should look at some of the policies that parties on the continent are using to attract younger voters and try to outflank the Tories.
That is one way that we are unlike our continental neighbours. Our youngsters are on the other side of this Tory culture war, particularly the women. Reform is the only party in Britain with even worse age demographics than the Tories. Its double or quits on a losing hand.
In part I think it that migration to Britain is 75 years old, but much more recent on the continent, so our youngsters have always known it, and our communities less segregated. Partly it is much lower unemployment particularly amongst the young.
All the polling confirms this. Britons are one of the least racist nations in Europe, and numbers citing immigration as an issue much lower than old codgers like @Leon, or indeed the PB Median.
Older liberals equating opposition to immigration with racism is quite self-serving because their financial interests are served by importing workers, but the financial interests of the young are different.
I don't think you're right on the history either. There was post-war immigration to France, Germany, the Netherlands, etc, as well. What was unique about the UK was the fairly long period from the late 1960s to the late 1990s when net migration was around zero and it became a fringe issue.
As much as you try to blame the younger generations problems on migration, that is bullshit. Our population is growing at a very slow rate compared to historical norms.
The problem is the lack of construction, not migration.
Especially since even without migration we'd still need construction that we aren't getting anyway.
A family of 4 moving into the country only need one house between them. 6 grandchildren growing up and becoming adults require 6 houses between them.
In the past decade our over 50s population has grown (net) by more than net migration. That's the real main reason why we need so many more houses
Are you arguing that with a stable national population, we would still need to increase the number of houses exponentially because if you look at an individual nuclear family, there are more grandkids than kids?
Shogun is the best tv series I have seen this year.
Just a good story, and there is actual unpredictable danger of leading characters. Nobody is safe.
And if "woke" stuff in modern tv / film (looks at Leon) something that really grinds your gears, there is none. No needless race or gender swapping characters, no Mary Sue girl bossing, no box ticking the character list to ensure it fits the awarding bodies criteria.
Where as Assassin Creed video game seems to have walked straight into this minefield with their future game set in a similar time period.
what channel /site is it on
Disney+ (but it was made by FX who obviously made great shows like Justified, Sons of Anarchy, The Shield). Its not like most of the Disney+ shitfest.
Cheers
It based on a book that is a fictionalised set of stories of a real guy. The actual real story is crazier than the fiction.
I recently watched a 2012 Russian adaptation of Bulgakov White Guard, on Prime, it managed the complexities of the civil war politics very well.
In the first episode the Hetmen in Kiev lose the support of the Germans, so call up the Ukrainian Nationalist for support because the Ukrainian Socialists are closing in. After that it gets messy.
The pollsters seem to be converging either side of 20, people polling at 24 point lead is slightly better than before the election for Sunak/Con and the Tories 'highest' (22, lol) with them since December
Shogun is the best tv series I have seen this year.
Just a good story, and there is actual unpredictable danger of leading characters. Nobody is safe.
And if "woke" stuff in modern tv / film (looks at Leon) something that really grinds your gears, there is none. No needless race or gender swapping characters, no Mary Sue girl bossing, no box ticking the character list to ensure it fits the awarding bodies criteria.
Where as Assassin Creed video game seems to have walked straight into this minefield with their future game set in a similar time period.
what channel /site is it on
Disney+ (but it was made by FX who obviously made great shows like Justified, Sons of Anarchy, The Shield). Its not like most of the Disney+ shitfest.
Cheers
It based on a book that is a fictionalised set of stories of a real guy. The actual real story is crazier than the fiction.
I recently watched a 2012 Russian adaptation of Bulgakov White Guard, on Prime, it managed the complexities of the civil war politics very well.
In the first episode the Hetmen in Kiev lose the support of the Germans, so call up the Ukrainian Nationalist for support because the Ukrainian Socialists are closing in. After that it gets messy.
Jesus wept! The Deltapoll has VI for 18 to 24 yo of 81% for Labour!!
Natty Serves proving popular....
Reform should look at some of the policies that parties on the continent are using to attract younger voters and try to outflank the Tories.
That is one way that we are unlike our continental neighbours. Our youngsters are on the other side of this Tory culture war, particularly the women. Reform is the only party in Britain with even worse age demographics than the Tories. Its double or quits on a losing hand.
In part I think it that migration to Britain is 75 years old, but much more recent on the continent, so our youngsters have always known it, and our communities less segregated. Partly it is much lower unemployment particularly amongst the young.
All the polling confirms this. Britons are one of the least racist nations in Europe, and numbers citing immigration as an issue much lower than old codgers like @Leon, or indeed the PB Median.
Older liberals equating opposition to immigration with racism is quite self-serving because their financial interests are served by importing workers, but the financial interests of the young are different.
I don't think you're right on the history either. There was post-war immigration to France, Germany, the Netherlands, etc, as well. What was unique about the UK was the fairly long period from the late 1960s to the late 1990s when net migration was around zero and it became a fringe issue.
As much as you try to blame the younger generations problems on migration, that is bullshit. Our population is growing at a very slow rate compared to historical norms.
The problem is the lack of construction, not migration.
Especially since even without migration we'd still need construction that we aren't getting anyway.
A family of 4 moving into the country only need one house between them. 6 grandchildren growing up and becoming adults require 6 houses between them.
In the past decade our over 50s population has grown (net) by more than net migration. That's the real main reason why we need so many more houses
Are you arguing that with a stable national population, we would still need to increase the number of houses exponentially because if you look at an individual nuclear family, there are more grandkids than kids?
I'm not so sure that, even after today's frenetic headlines, Reform will have much of an impact come polling day. They're essentially a one-man band supplemented by Lee Anderson. Tice has made no headway, personally, at all. What else have they got? Ann Widdecombe? Which also leads me to suggest that Reform is very much a 'laddish' party that is likely to have limited appeal to women voters (though I confess I haven't seen any male/female breakdown of support for Reform - it's just a gut feeling).
Shogun is the best tv series I have seen this year.
Just a good story, and there is actual unpredictable danger of leading characters. Nobody is safe.
And if "woke" stuff in modern tv / film (looks at Leon) something that really grinds your gears, there is none. No needless race or gender swapping characters, no Mary Sue girl bossing, no box ticking the character list to ensure it fits the awarding bodies criteria.
Where as Assassin Creed video game seems to have walked straight into this minefield with their future game set in a similar time period.
what channel /site is it on
Instead of being told from the Western perspective, it’s updated to be told from the Japanese perspective, and full of top Japanese acting talent. This puts the emphasis on the political manoeuvres rather than “Englishman abroad” hokum.
I thought it was great that 90% of it is in Japanese. It would have been so much easier for American market just to do the classic everybody speaks English (even when they know they are conversing in another language) most of the time.
The original series practically taught the viewers Japanese - they made a big deal out of his slow learning of the language and culture.
They used the top Japanese talent of the day as well.
Shogun is the best tv series I have seen this year.
Just a good story, and there is actual unpredictable danger of leading characters. Nobody is safe.
And if "woke" stuff in modern tv / film (looks at Leon) something that really grinds your gears, there is none. No needless race or gender swapping characters, no Mary Sue girl bossing, no box ticking the character list to ensure it fits the awarding bodies criteria.
Where as Assassin Creed video game seems to have walked straight into this minefield with their future game set in a similar time period.
what channel /site is it on
Disney+ (but it was made by FX who obviously made great shows like Justified, Sons of Anarchy, The Shield). Its not like most of the Disney+ shitfest.
Cheers
It based on a book that is a fictionalised set of stories of a real guy. The actual real story is crazier than the fiction.
I recently watched a 2012 Russian adaptation of Bulgakov White Guard, on Prime, it managed the complexities of the civil war politics very well.
In the first episode the Hetmen in Kiev lose the support of the Germans, so call up the Ukrainian Nationalist for support because the Ukrainian Socialists are closing in. After that it gets messy.
That sounds interesting. What is it called?
White Guard. Banned in Ukraine as M. A. Bulgakov was notoriously Ukro-skeptical.
I'm not so sure that, even after today's frenetic headlines, Reform will have much of an impact come polling day. They're essentially a one-man band supplemented by Lee Anderson. Tice has made no headway, personally, at all. What else have they got? Ann Widdecombe? Which also leads me to suggest that Reform is very much a 'laddish' party that is likely to have limited appeal to women voters (though I confess I haven't seen any male/female breakdown of support for Reform - it's just a gut feeling).
Is the Moggster's sister standing for the ReFukkers? Against her bro would be entertaining.
Jesus wept! The Deltapoll has VI for 18 to 24 yo of 81% for Labour!!
Natty Serves proving popular....
Reform should look at some of the policies that parties on the continent are using to attract younger voters and try to outflank the Tories.
That is one way that we are unlike our continental neighbours. Our youngsters are on the other side of this Tory culture war, particularly the women. Reform is the only party in Britain with even worse age demographics than the Tories. Its double or quits on a losing hand.
In part I think it that migration to Britain is 75 years old, but much more recent on the continent, so our youngsters have always known it, and our communities less segregated. Partly it is much lower unemployment particularly amongst the young.
All the polling confirms this. Britons are one of the least racist nations in Europe, and numbers citing immigration as an issue much lower than old codgers like @Leon, or indeed the PB Median.
Older liberals equating opposition to immigration with racism is quite self-serving because their financial interests are served by importing workers, but the financial interests of the young are different.
I don't think you're right on the history either. There was post-war immigration to France, Germany, the Netherlands, etc, as well. What was unique about the UK was the fairly long period from the late 1960s to the late 1990s when net migration was around zero and it became a fringe issue.
As much as you try to blame the younger generations problems on migration, that is bullshit. Our population is growing at a very slow rate compared to historical norms.
The problem is the lack of construction, not migration.
Especially since even without migration we'd still need construction that we aren't getting anyway.
A family of 4 moving into the country only need one house between them. 6 grandchildren growing up and becoming adults require 6 houses between them.
In the past decade our over 50s population has grown (net) by more than net migration. That's the real main reason why we need so many more houses
Are you arguing that with a stable national population, we would still need to increase the number of houses exponentially because if you look at an individual nuclear family, there are more grandkids than kids?
A lot of the increase in housing demand post WW2 has been driven by changes in lifestyle separate to any immigration issues. People mrrying later, divorce, kids wanting independence and the growth in second home ownership have all had a substantial impact on housing demand.
How low the Tories have sunk..... shitting themselves about a man who has failed to be elected 7 times and is not popular in polling with voters to any eye catching extent. Utter Clowns.
He's about 25 points more popular with their own voters than Sunak!
Nah, not amongst current VI He's more popular with 2019 Tories as a whole though
Jesus wept! The Deltapoll has VI for 18 to 24 yo of 81% for Labour!!
Natty Serves proving popular....
Reform should look at some of the policies that parties on the continent are using to attract younger voters and try to outflank the Tories.
That is one way that we are unlike our continental neighbours. Our youngsters are on the other side of this Tory culture war, particularly the women. Reform is the only party in Britain with even worse age demographics than the Tories. Its double or quits on a losing hand.
In part I think it that migration to Britain is 75 years old, but much more recent on the continent, so our youngsters have always known it, and our communities less segregated. Partly it is much lower unemployment particularly amongst the young.
All the polling confirms this. Britons are one of the least racist nations in Europe, and numbers citing immigration as an issue much lower than old codgers like @Leon, or indeed the PB Median.
Older liberals equating opposition to immigration with racism is quite self-serving because their financial interests are served by importing workers, but the financial interests of the young are different.
I don't think you're right on the history either. There was post-war immigration to France, Germany, the Netherlands, etc, as well. What was unique about the UK was the fairly long period from the late 1960s to the late 1990s when net migration was around zero and it became a fringe issue.
As much as you try to blame the younger generations problems on migration, that is bullshit. Our population is growing at a very slow rate compared to historical norms.
The problem is the lack of construction, not migration.
Especially since even without migration we'd still need construction that we aren't getting anyway.
A family of 4 moving into the country only need one house between them. 6 grandchildren growing up and becoming adults require 6 houses between them.
In the past decade our over 50s population has grown (net) by more than net migration. That's the real main reason why we need so many more houses
Are you arguing that with a stable national population, we would still need to increase the number of houses exponentially because if you look at an individual nuclear family, there are more grandkids than kids?
I am arguing that with a stable national population we would still need to increase the number of houses dramatically because if you look at national demographics our demographics are changing, yes.
Children typically live with their parents. Parents typically live with their children. (Great-) Grandparents typically don't live with either.
Even if our population numbers are stable, our demographics are not. People are living longer, we have more alive grandparents and great grandparents than ever before who are living in a house without any young people with them.
We need massive construction because of demographics alone.
MRP pollsters must be mildly annoyed to have dropped their polls on a day when there is some news that has genuine potential to shift the dynamic (not the phony so-called "gamechangers" we've had to date).
I'd had a strong assumption RefUK would fall away, but this makes it interesting and has potential to split the right wing vote in a catastrophic way for Sunak.
Goodwins loser polling says Exclusive polling from People Polling for GB News: Labour - 46 per cent Conservatives - 22 per cent Reform - 10 per cent Liberal Democrats - 8 per cent Green - 8 per cent
Looks pretty much like the other polls despite the fact it’s from Loser Goodwin.
How low the Tories have sunk..... shitting themselves about a man who has failed to be elected 7 times and is not popular in polling with voters to any eye catching extent. Utter Clowns.
He's about 25 points more popular with their own voters than Sunak!
I'm not so sure that, even after today's frenetic headlines, Reform will have much of an impact come polling day. They're essentially a one-man band supplemented by Lee Anderson. Tice has made no headway, personally, at all. What else have they got? Ann Widdecombe? Which also leads me to suggest that Reform is very much a 'laddish' party that is likely to have limited appeal to women voters (though I confess I haven't seen any male/female breakdown of support for Reform - it's just a gut feeling).
Is the Moggster's sister standing for the ReFukkers? Against her bro would be entertaining.
Annie's back in the Tory fold now, part of Truss's PopCon faction.
I'm not so sure that, even after today's frenetic headlines, Reform will have much of an impact come polling day. They're essentially a one-man band supplemented by Lee Anderson. Tice has made no headway, personally, at all. What else have they got? Ann Widdecombe? Which also leads me to suggest that Reform is very much a 'laddish' party that is likely to have limited appeal to women voters (though I confess I haven't seen any male/female breakdown of support for Reform - it's just a gut feeling).
Is the Moggster's sister standing for the ReFukkers? Against her bro would be entertaining.
No. Apparently, Annunziata is the Communications Chief for the PopCons, the weirdo bunch including her brother and other right-wing luminaries like David Frost.
Jesus wept! The Deltapoll has VI for 18 to 24 yo of 81% for Labour!!
Natty Serves proving popular....
Reform should look at some of the policies that parties on the continent are using to attract younger voters and try to outflank the Tories.
That is one way that we are unlike our continental neighbours. Our youngsters are on the other side of this Tory culture war, particularly the women. Reform is the only party in Britain with even worse age demographics than the Tories. Its double or quits on a losing hand.
In part I think it that migration to Britain is 75 years old, but much more recent on the continent, so our youngsters have always known it, and our communities less segregated. Partly it is much lower unemployment particularly amongst the young.
All the polling confirms this. Britons are one of the least racist nations in Europe, and numbers citing immigration as an issue much lower than old codgers like @Leon, or indeed the PB Median.
Older liberals equating opposition to immigration with racism is quite self-serving because their financial interests are served by importing workers, but the financial interests of the young are different.
I don't think you're right on the history either. There was post-war immigration to France, Germany, the Netherlands, etc, as well. What was unique about the UK was the fairly long period from the late 1960s to the late 1990s when net migration was around zero and it became a fringe issue.
As much as you try to blame the younger generations problems on migration, that is bullshit. Our population is growing at a very slow rate compared to historical norms.
The problem is the lack of construction, not migration.
Especially since even without migration we'd still need construction that we aren't getting anyway.
A family of 4 moving into the country only need one house between them. 6 grandchildren growing up and becoming adults require 6 houses between them.
In the past decade our over 50s population has grown (net) by more than net migration. That's the real main reason why we need so many more houses
Are you arguing that with a stable national population, we would still need to increase the number of houses exponentially because if you look at an individual nuclear family, there are more grandkids than kids?
I am arguing that with a stable national population we would still need to increase the number of houses dramatically because if you look at national demographics our demographics are changing, yes.
Children typically live with their parents. Parents typically live with their children. (Great-) Grandparents typically don't live with either.
Even if our population numbers are stable, our demographics are not. People are living longer, we have more alive grandparents and great grandparents than ever before who are living in a house without any young people with them.
We need massive construction because of demographics alone.
Jesus wept! The Deltapoll has VI for 18 to 24 yo of 81% for Labour!!
Natty Serves proving popular....
Reform should look at some of the policies that parties on the continent are using to attract younger voters and try to outflank the Tories.
That is one way that we are unlike our continental neighbours. Our youngsters are on the other side of this Tory culture war, particularly the women. Reform is the only party in Britain with even worse age demographics than the Tories. Its double or quits on a losing hand.
In part I think it that migration to Britain is 75 years old, but much more recent on the continent, so our youngsters have always known it, and our communities less segregated. Partly it is much lower unemployment particularly amongst the young.
All the polling confirms this. Britons are one of the least racist nations in Europe, and numbers citing immigration as an issue much lower than old codgers like @Leon, or indeed the PB Median.
Older liberals equating opposition to immigration with racism is quite self-serving because their financial interests are served by importing workers, but the financial interests of the young are different.
I don't think you're right on the history either. There was post-war immigration to France, Germany, the Netherlands, etc, as well. What was unique about the UK was the fairly long period from the late 1960s to the late 1990s when net migration was around zero and it became a fringe issue.
As much as you try to blame the younger generations problems on migration, that is bullshit. Our population is growing at a very slow rate compared to historical norms.
The problem is the lack of construction, not migration.
Especially since even without migration we'd still need construction that we aren't getting anyway.
A family of 4 moving into the country only need one house between them. 6 grandchildren growing up and becoming adults require 6 houses between them.
In the past decade our over 50s population has grown (net) by more than net migration. That's the real main reason why we need so many more houses
Are you arguing that with a stable national population, we would still need to increase the number of houses exponentially because if you look at an individual nuclear family, there are more grandkids than kids?
I am arguing that with a stable national population we would still need to increase the number of houses dramatically because if you look at national demographics our demographics are changing, yes.
Children typically live with their parents. Parents typically live with their children. (Great-) Grandparents typically don't live with either.
Even if our population numbers are stable, our demographics are not. People are living longer, we have more alive grandparents and great grandparents than ever before who are living in a house without any young people with them.
We need massive construction because of demographics alone.
Sounds like what we need is sheltered accommodation and care homes.
I'm not so sure that, even after today's frenetic headlines, Reform will have much of an impact come polling day. They're essentially a one-man band supplemented by Lee Anderson. Tice has made no headway, personally, at all. What else have they got? Ann Widdecombe? Which also leads me to suggest that Reform is very much a 'laddish' party that is likely to have limited appeal to women voters (though I confess I haven't seen any male/female breakdown of support for Reform - it's just a gut feeling).
You are correct. The party cross tabs are definitely older males obsessed with immigrants and genitals. Think @Leon.
Jesus wept! The Deltapoll has VI for 18 to 24 yo of 81% for Labour!!
Natty Serves proving popular....
Reform should look at some of the policies that parties on the continent are using to attract younger voters and try to outflank the Tories.
That is one way that we are unlike our continental neighbours. Our youngsters are on the other side of this Tory culture war, particularly the women. Reform is the only party in Britain with even worse age demographics than the Tories. Its double or quits on a losing hand.
In part I think it that migration to Britain is 75 years old, but much more recent on the continent, so our youngsters have always known it, and our communities less segregated. Partly it is much lower unemployment particularly amongst the young.
All the polling confirms this. Britons are one of the least racist nations in Europe, and numbers citing immigration as an issue much lower than old codgers like @Leon, or indeed the PB Median.
Older liberals equating opposition to immigration with racism is quite self-serving because their financial interests are served by importing workers, but the financial interests of the young are different.
I don't think you're right on the history either. There was post-war immigration to France, Germany, the Netherlands, etc, as well. What was unique about the UK was the fairly long period from the late 1960s to the late 1990s when net migration was around zero and it became a fringe issue.
As much as you try to blame the younger generations problems on migration, that is bullshit. Our population is growing at a very slow rate compared to historical norms.
The problem is the lack of construction, not migration.
Especially since even without migration we'd still need construction that we aren't getting anyway.
A family of 4 moving into the country only need one house between them. 6 grandchildren growing up and becoming adults require 6 houses between them.
In the past decade our over 50s population has grown (net) by more than net migration. That's the real main reason why we need so many more houses
Are you arguing that with a stable national population, we would still need to increase the number of houses exponentially because if you look at an individual nuclear family, there are more grandkids than kids?
I am arguing that with a stable national population we would still need to increase the number of houses dramatically because if you look at national demographics our demographics are changing, yes.
Children typically live with their parents. Parents typically live with their children. (Great-) Grandparents typically don't live with either.
Even if our population numbers are stable, our demographics are not. People are living longer, we have more alive grandparents and great grandparents than ever before who are living in a house without any young people with them.
We need massive construction because of demographics alone.
It’s also stupid to talk of “blaming” immigrants for needing housing.
If you want net immigration, you need somewhere for them to sleep. Somewhere to eat. Something to eat. Hospitals, schools…
To take the line that it’s about blame is to deny rational planning. Life is like that - if you want X, then you need to do Y.
Jesus wept! The Deltapoll has VI for 18 to 24 yo of 81% for Labour!!
Natty Serves proving popular....
Reform should look at some of the policies that parties on the continent are using to attract younger voters and try to outflank the Tories.
That is one way that we are unlike our continental neighbours. Our youngsters are on the other side of this Tory culture war, particularly the women. Reform is the only party in Britain with even worse age demographics than the Tories. Its double or quits on a losing hand.
In part I think it that migration to Britain is 75 years old, but much more recent on the continent, so our youngsters have always known it, and our communities less segregated. Partly it is much lower unemployment particularly amongst the young.
All the polling confirms this. Britons are one of the least racist nations in Europe, and numbers citing immigration as an issue much lower than old codgers like @Leon, or indeed the PB Median.
Older liberals equating opposition to immigration with racism is quite self-serving because their financial interests are served by importing workers, but the financial interests of the young are different.
I don't think you're right on the history either. There was post-war immigration to France, Germany, the Netherlands, etc, as well. What was unique about the UK was the fairly long period from the late 1960s to the late 1990s when net migration was around zero and it became a fringe issue.
As much as you try to blame the younger generations problems on migration, that is bullshit. Our population is growing at a very slow rate compared to historical norms.
The problem is the lack of construction, not migration.
Especially since even without migration we'd still need construction that we aren't getting anyway.
A family of 4 moving into the country only need one house between them. 6 grandchildren growing up and becoming adults require 6 houses between them.
In the past decade our over 50s population has grown (net) by more than net migration. That's the real main reason why we need so many more houses
Are you arguing that with a stable national population, we would still need to increase the number of houses exponentially because if you look at an individual nuclear family, there are more grandkids than kids?
A lot of the increase in housing demand post WW2 has been driven by changes in lifestyle separate to any immigration issues. People mrrying later, divorce, kids wanting independence and the growth in second home ownership have all had a substantial impact on housing demand.
They all play a role but people living longer than they did in the past absolutely dwarfs all of that.
Either way though, we need massively more houses which can only be done with a huge increase in construction. Even if there's no migration.
Comments
Interesting pub to choose - chemical beer only if my info is still accurate, and noisy, middle-aged, bald customer base.
In Ashfield Labour still on at 8-13 ->2-5, Reform have come in slightly to 3-1 ish. Ashfield Independents at about the same on 9-2. Tories out at 20-1 in a range of 10-1 to 33-1.
Where's the value - not sure but perhaps on the lay side?
Obv today's Farage news may have blown a hole in the thinking but hey ho.
Apart from UK 2017, there are very few elecs I can think of anywhere with the centre-right coming in below opinion polls, unlike say the Greens.
When it became clear that the USSR had ignored the Biological Weapons treaty, nothing was done. If the Americans had said “OK, we are going to put a full load of MIRVs back on the missiles, and double conventional forces in Europe”, then disarmament would have survived.
But US Presidents were too busy trying to “build a relationship with Russia”. And then found there were no votes in the Senate for further treaties.
*American nuclear strategy from the late 60s to the end of the Cold War was cribbed directly from Kahn. Given that “On Thermonuclear War” is simply a copy of the lecturers and briefings he gave at the Pentagon…
The problem is the lack of construction, not migration.
Especially since even without migration we'd still need construction that we aren't getting anyway.
A family of 4 moving into the country only need one house between them. 6 grandchildren growing up and becoming adults require 6 houses between them.
In the past decade our over 50s population has grown (net) by more than net migration. That's the real main reason why we need so many more houses
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.229310778
I think focaldata have an MRP tomorrow, a normal poll if not
Hmm
Yeah, that's plausible. Good luck
They should have dumped Rishi. He shouldn’t even be in politics. He wasn’t even any good at Chancellor. He’s the psychology of someone no one has ever said “no you Can’t have that” to his entire life. It’s his decision making, and the decision making of those he has surrounded himself with, that can needlessly cost Conservatives 100 or More seats!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zynd7r8Owpc&t=140s
Where has this horrible construction come from? It’s bloody awful.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Adams_(pilot)
(No link, since I have the dead tree version.)
• Sunny’s Henley launch being disrupted by the Liberals on a mucky boat
• An upside down union flag
• Michael Green calling and then hanging up live on Sophy Ridge
What will tomorrow bring?!?
He will make the effort.
*Labour lead up to 17 points*
Change on last week in brackets
LAB: 43% (+3)
CON: 26% (-2)
REF: 12% (-)
LDEM: 11% (+1)
GRN: 3% (-2)
Shocking that last week’s poll was an outlier.
“Two main reasons:
1. More voters are naming Rishi Sunak as a reason they have changed their mind, and he is coming more to the surface as a hesitation amongst voters for voting Tory. In the words of one voter, they changed their mind because of “what people have been saying about rishi all over social media”
2. National Service: it led to a more negative perception of the Conservatives with all voters, with 32% saying it had a more negative impact on their view than a positive one (23%). It was only *net neutral* for those Tories who now say they don’t know, pushed switchers further to Labour, and only marginally helped with Con-to-Reform switchers”
The Tories are doomed. And PB was right about National Service.
Netflix and chill...
Edit - ah, ok, I now see what you're saying
https://x.com/DUPleader/status/1797662088627994889/
UK broadcasters should take note.
Exclusive polling from People Polling for GB News:
Labour - 46 per cent
Conservatives - 22 per cent
Reform - 10 per cent
Liberal Democrats - 8 per cent
Green - 8 per cent
In summary, the Conservatives could easily get 40 seats if the polling goes further against them even slightly. The trend is still negative. Note they will lose their previously safest seats to the Lib Dems as well as to Labour in that situation.
I would also say 160 seats is toppy on current polling. On a win some, lose some basis I would expect a lower number than that
Ok so in among the UK campaign and a busy run of int'l elecs (SA & Mex done, Belgium & Euros on Sun), tomorrow sees the vote count in India, likely to be very fast if 2014/19 are anything to go by, with electronic counting.
Looks like counting starts 8am local time (3.30 UK) so I will be attempting to get up early, watch the first few hours then go into work
Obv almost certainly a 3rd Modi term, barring an epic polling failure.
Links:
https://www.ndtv.com/livetv-ndtv24x7
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC6RJ7-PaXg6TIH2BzZfTV7w
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/elections/results
Thanks,
DC
(There is also an older Canadian sci-fi series called 'Dark Matter' which is well worth a go if you're after a bit more light-hearted character-driven scifi. Takes a couple of episodes to find it's feet - but then it's really quite enjoyable)
Even the stuff we were talking about the other day on eg wake boarding are adjacent physical skills.
When I lived in Chiswick I knew someone who had married a reasonably famous ballerina by dint of being on the stage staff at the Royal Ballet; I watched her sance Swan Lake at the Royal Albert Hall as a guest. The sort of thing that generally does not happen in Ashfield or Bolsover !
The definition of madness is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
“Go hard right and squeeze Reform” failed before the campaign, it failed at the start of the campaign, so what’s the next move…?
“Go hard right and squeeze Reform”. 🙄
@alexwickham
Exclusive: Rishi Sunak’s aides are considering hardening the Tory party’s position on the ECHR, as Nigel Farage plunged their campaign into crisis
— senior party aides have sounded out moderate ministers on whether they could back a tougher stance
He's more popular with 2019 Tories as a whole though
In the first episode the Hetmen in Kiev lose the support of the Germans, so call up the Ukrainian Nationalist for support because the Ukrainian Socialists are closing in. After that it gets messy.
Which will probably be a nothingburger, but just might see a Prime Minister falling apart live on national TV.
They used the top Japanese talent of the day as well.
Children typically live with their parents. Parents typically live with their children. (Great-) Grandparents typically don't live with either.
Even if our population numbers are stable, our demographics are not. People are living longer, we have more alive grandparents and great grandparents than ever before who are living in a house without any young people with them.
We need massive construction because of demographics alone.
I'd had a strong assumption RefUK would fall away, but this makes it interesting and has potential to split the right wing vote in a catastrophic way for Sunak.
If you want net immigration, you need somewhere for them to sleep. Somewhere to eat. Something to eat. Hospitals, schools…
To take the line that it’s about blame is to deny rational planning. Life is like that - if you want X, then you need to do Y.
Either way though, we need massively more houses which can only be done with a huge increase in construction. Even if there's no migration.