Jesus wept! The Deltapoll has VI for 18 to 24 yo of 81% for Labour!!
Natty Serves proving popular....
Reform should look at some of the policies that parties on the continent are using to attract younger voters and try to outflank the Tories.
That is one way that we are unlike our continental neighbours. Our youngsters are on the other side of this Tory culture war, particularly the women. Reform is the only party in Britain with even worse age demographics than the Tories. Its double or quits on a losing hand.
In part I think it that migration to Britain is 75 years old, but much more recent on the continent, so our youngsters have always known it, and our communities less segregated. Partly it is much lower unemployment particularly amongst the young.
All the polling confirms this. Britons are one of the least racist nations in Europe, and numbers citing immigration as an issue much lower than old codgers like @Leon, or indeed the PB Median.
Older liberals equating opposition to immigration with racism is quite self-serving because their financial interests are served by importing workers, but the financial interests of the young are different.
I don't think you're right on the history either. There was post-war immigration to France, Germany, the Netherlands, etc, as well. What was unique about the UK was the fairly long period from the late 1960s to the late 1990s when net migration was around zero and it became a fringe issue.
As much as you try to blame the younger generations problems on migration, that is bullshit. Our population is growing at a very slow rate compared to historical norms.
The problem is the lack of construction, not migration.
Especially since even without migration we'd still need construction that we aren't getting anyway.
A family of 4 moving into the country only need one house between them. 6 grandchildren growing up and becoming adults require 6 houses between them.
In the past decade our over 50s population has grown (net) by more than net migration. That's the real main reason why we need so many more houses
Are you arguing that with a stable national population, we would still need to increase the number of houses exponentially because if you look at an individual nuclear family, there are more grandkids than kids?
I am arguing that with a stable national population we would still need to increase the number of houses dramatically because if you look at national demographics our demographics are changing, yes.
Children typically live with their parents. Parents typically live with their children. (Great-) Grandparents typically don't live with either.
Even if our population numbers are stable, our demographics are not. People are living longer, we have more alive grandparents and great grandparents than ever before who are living in a house without any young people with them.
We need massive construction because of demographics alone.
Sounds like what we need is sheltered accommodation and care homes.
Should people who are fit, healthy and able to live in their own home but are simply old be forced into sheltered accommodation in your eyes?
I suspect a lot of people would be better off long term if they moved to sheltered accommodation sooner rather than later..
A lot of people leave things 1 or 2 years too late…
Sheltered accomodation yes. But not care homes. As I mentioned last week I have seen the inside of a lot of (don't) care homes over the years and I would do everything in my power to prevent my loved ones going into one.
I would just comment that we have lived in our home for 48 years and the youngest of our 3 children was just 18 months old when we moved in
It is the family home and is far too big for us, but we will not move from it and indeed our children and grandchildren would do whatever they could to keep us in our home
Someday, maybe soon, a life changing event will happen to my wife and I, but even then it is possible our youngest may buy his siblings out and continue it as the family home
There's absolutely nothing wrong with you continuing to live in your family home, good for you. But other people also need family homes and that means we need massive construction, even without any population changes just due to demographic changes.
Do you mind if I ask how many years ago it was when your last child moved out of the home? Unlike in the past its not unusual now for people to live in what was their family home for decades beyond their children no longer living there and we need construction for the children to have somewhere to live.
He bought his own home in 2001 so it is 23 years since any of our children lived with us
I said earlier this was great news for the LibDems:
Tories have been tacking hard right to see off RefUK. Thought they had caught the Nigel on the hop. Tory campaign heavily set in winning over Fukkers and wayward Tories. Forget your common or garden Tory, and especially forget your 2019 first time red wall Tory, this is hang em and flog em only. Various mad policy announcements have gone down like a bucke of warm sick - National Service a prime example. Despite this that Tory chasm remains gargantuan. It isn't working Now The Nigel (for it is He) comes back. On a mission to become the next leader of the Conservative Party. Sunak in a mad panic will now try and tack even harder to the right to see him off. The madder the Tories get, the harder they lose. They can't out fUK RefUK, and in trying they lose even more of middle England.
And this is why the Nigel is manna from heaven for the Liberal Democrats. The Tories will unveil ever madder and more repugnant policies over the remaining month, and that just lets us pick up more seats.
"us"?
I take it you're back in the Lib Dems then? I thought you had left them. Sorry if you've already discussed this, not been on here much lately.
PS I agree with your logic entirely. Sunak is ensuring I'll vote for either the Lib Dems or Labour rather than the Tories.
The Lib Dems are going to get far more seats than the Fukkers.
If you were Farage would you want to win in Clacton?
South Thanet 2015 was a perfect result for him, close loss, he could argue that he would have won if the Tory machine hadn't cheated. But if he gets elected, then he'll be stuck at Westminster in the most depressing of positions, an opposition backbencher, he'll have to do constituency surgeries, actually handle people's problems. That doesn't sound like Farage stuff to me.
He won't do surgeries, and MPs are under no obligation to do them. He'll have a shitty attendance record and he'll be constantly swanning around with the latest fash-flavoured politicians in whichever country has most recently voted 17% far right. He'll be in the country less than Leon.
Leon could be made a roving trade envoy, get the best out of him as an MP.
How low the Tories have sunk..... shitting themselves about a man who has failed to be elected 7 times and is not popular in polling with voters to any eye catching extent. Utter Clowns.
Prediction: Farage is yesterday's news and won't shift the dial for Reform very much, even if he does stand and win in Clacton.
The last desperate hope the Tories had of closing the gap was to squeeze the Reform vote. Farage's intervention today makes that long-shot significantly less likely.
How low the Tories have sunk..... shitting themselves about a man who has failed to be elected 7 times and is not popular in polling with voters to any eye catching extent. Utter Clowns.
Prediction: Farage is yesterday's news and won't shift the dial for Reform very much, even if he does stand and win in Clacton.
The last desperate hope the Tories had of closing the gap was to squeeze the Reform vote. Farage's intervention today makes that long-shot significantly less likely.
Exactly so - it was very apparent that some people have been very keen for this announcement, the Guidos of the world for example, and I can see many waverers following their hearts here.
Hm. That wording. 'Multiple' is ambiguous - deliberately? Could be a serial killer, or it could be >=2 in one incident. The two have somewhat different issues of potential false conviction.
How low the Tories have sunk..... shitting themselves about a man who has failed to be elected 7 times and is not popular in polling with voters to any eye catching extent. Utter Clowns.
Prediction: Farage is yesterday's news and won't shift the dial for Reform very much, even if he does stand and win in Clacton.
I suspect the biggest effect might be to make the CCHQ campaign team panic, which could result in further missteps becoming more likely.
Tory candidates would be well advised to ignore them, keep their heads down, and concentrate on working their own patch as hard as they can.
Could they panic themselves into agreeing to a head-to-head debate with Farage?
I said earlier this was great news for the LibDems:
Tories have been tacking hard right to see off RefUK. Thought they had caught the Nigel on the hop. Tory campaign heavily set in winning over Fukkers and wayward Tories. Forget your common or garden Tory, and especially forget your 2019 first time red wall Tory, this is hang em and flog em only. Various mad policy announcements have gone down like a bucke of warm sick - National Service a prime example. Despite this that Tory chasm remains gargantuan. It isn't working Now The Nigel (for it is He) comes back. On a mission to become the next leader of the Conservative Party. Sunak in a mad panic will now try and tack even harder to the right to see him off. The madder the Tories get, the harder they lose. They can't out fUK RefUK, and in trying they lose even more of middle England.
And this is why the Nigel is manna from heaven for the Liberal Democrats. The Tories will unveil ever madder and more repugnant policies over the remaining month, and that just lets us pick up more seats.
"us"?
I take it you're back in the Lib Dems then? I thought you had left them. Sorry if you've already discussed this, not been on here much lately.
PS I agree with your logic entirely. Sunak is ensuring I'll vote for either the Lib Dems or Labour rather than the Tories.
The Lib Dems are going to get far more seats than the Fukkers.
I said earlier this was great news for the LibDems:
Tories have been tacking hard right to see off RefUK. Thought they had caught the Nigel on the hop. Tory campaign heavily set in winning over Fukkers and wayward Tories. Forget your common or garden Tory, and especially forget your 2019 first time red wall Tory, this is hang em and flog em only. Various mad policy announcements have gone down like a bucke of warm sick - National Service a prime example. Despite this that Tory chasm remains gargantuan. It isn't working Now The Nigel (for it is He) comes back. On a mission to become the next leader of the Conservative Party. Sunak in a mad panic will now try and tack even harder to the right to see him off. The madder the Tories get, the harder they lose. They can't out fUK RefUK, and in trying they lose even more of middle England.
And this is why the Nigel is manna from heaven for the Liberal Democrats. The Tories will unveil ever madder and more repugnant policies over the remaining month, and that just lets us pick up more seats.
"us"?
I take it you're back in the Lib Dems then? I thought you had left them. Sorry if you've already discussed this, not been on here much lately.
PS I agree with your logic entirely. Sunak is ensuring I'll vote for either the Lib Dems or Labour rather than the Tories.
The Lib Dems are going to get far more seats than the Fukkers.
On a serious note, these guys are from very privileged world. You can see why Cameron hired Coulson, an Essex lad from a normal background to tell him what to order at a Nandos.
Hilarious quote from the article, in the light of today's political situation.
"Rishi Sunak, the UK’s chancellor, is widely deemed to be doing a stellar job. Not only that, he’s doing a stellar job in the most unlikely, demanding and critical of circumstances. He’s been dubbed ‘a style hero’, has now entered popular consciousness as ‘dishy Rishi’ (largely thanks to his tabloid nickname) and is touted as the ‘next Prime Minister’.
Now, drilling down, who are the movers and shakers who can be credited for promoting and finessing Brand Rishi? Meet Cass – Cassian – Horowitz, the 29-year-old son of the author Anthony Horowitz (of the hugely successful Alex Rider series and a number of James Bond books). His job title is ‘special advisor to the Chancellor at HM Treasury’ but he’s also a co-founder of creative agency The Clerkenwell Brothers (alongside his own brother, Marlborough-educated Nicholas Horowitz, another video whizz). The agency works across multifarious projects, from ITV’s Peston to a CBD product, and Cass is known to be a tried and tested social media guru."
How low the Tories have sunk..... shitting themselves about a man who has failed to be elected 7 times and is not popular in polling with voters to any eye catching extent. Utter Clowns.
Prediction: Farage is yesterday's news and won't shift the dial for Reform very much, even if he does stand and win in Clacton.
I suspect the biggest effect might be to make the CCHQ campaign team panic, which could result in further missteps becoming more likely.
Tory candidates would be well advised to ignore them, keep their heads down, and concentrate on working their own patch as hard as they can.
Good advice, which they almost certainly won't take.
Tory Party loves to panic.
The bigger question is to what extent local campaigns are "controlled" by the central party. Do they, for example, have to push particular issues on particular days or are local associations allowed to campaign as they see fit?
Back in 1997, John Major had the problem of local candidates going against agreed Party policy on the single currency. My understanding then was a candidate's Election Address was their statement and didn't need to be approved centrally - it may be different now.
I said earlier this was great news for the LibDems:
Tories have been tacking hard right to see off RefUK. Thought they had caught the Nigel on the hop. Tory campaign heavily set in winning over Fukkers and wayward Tories. Forget your common or garden Tory, and especially forget your 2019 first time red wall Tory, this is hang em and flog em only. Various mad policy announcements have gone down like a bucke of warm sick - National Service a prime example. Despite this that Tory chasm remains gargantuan. It isn't working Now The Nigel (for it is He) comes back. On a mission to become the next leader of the Conservative Party. Sunak in a mad panic will now try and tack even harder to the right to see him off. The madder the Tories get, the harder they lose. They can't out fUK RefUK, and in trying they lose even more of middle England.
And this is why the Nigel is manna from heaven for the Liberal Democrats. The Tories will unveil ever madder and more repugnant policies over the remaining month, and that just lets us pick up more seats.
"us"?
I take it you're back in the Lib Dems then? I thought you had left them. Sorry if you've already discussed this, not been on here much lately.
PS I agree with your logic entirely. Sunak is ensuring I'll vote for either the Lib Dems or Labour rather than the Tories.
The Lib Dems are going to get far more seats than the Fukkers.
I said earlier this was great news for the LibDems:
Tories have been tacking hard right to see off RefUK. Thought they had caught the Nigel on the hop. Tory campaign heavily set in winning over Fukkers and wayward Tories. Forget your common or garden Tory, and especially forget your 2019 first time red wall Tory, this is hang em and flog em only. Various mad policy announcements have gone down like a bucke of warm sick - National Service a prime example. Despite this that Tory chasm remains gargantuan. It isn't working Now The Nigel (for it is He) comes back. On a mission to become the next leader of the Conservative Party. Sunak in a mad panic will now try and tack even harder to the right to see him off. The madder the Tories get, the harder they lose. They can't out fUK RefUK, and in trying they lose even more of middle England.
And this is why the Nigel is manna from heaven for the Liberal Democrats. The Tories will unveil ever madder and more repugnant policies over the remaining month, and that just lets us pick up more seats.
"us"?
I take it you're back in the Lib Dems then? I thought you had left them. Sorry if you've already discussed this, not been on here much lately.
PS I agree with your logic entirely. Sunak is ensuring I'll vote for either the Lib Dems or Labour rather than the Tories.
The Lib Dems are going to get far more seats than the Fukkers.
Rochdale is the lib dem candidate in my seat
I respect your commitment to the sanctity of the voting booth by not stating 'and he has my vote'.
How low the Tories have sunk..... shitting themselves about a man who has failed to be elected 7 times and is not popular in polling with voters to any eye catching extent. Utter Clowns.
Prediction: Farage is yesterday's news and won't shift the dial for Reform very much, even if he does stand and win in Clacton.
The last desperate hope the Tories had of closing the gap was to squeeze the Reform vote. Farage's intervention today makes that long-shot significantly less likely.
Exactly so - it was very apparent that some people have been very keen for this announcement, the Guidos for the world for example, and I can see many waverers following their hearts here.
Yup, it was often remarked that it needed a black swan to change the course of events, and one has now arrived, but not in the direction that was assumed or hoped for.
Jesus wept! The Deltapoll has VI for 18 to 24 yo of 81% for Labour!!
Natty Serves proving popular....
Reform should look at some of the policies that parties on the continent are using to attract younger voters and try to outflank the Tories.
That is one way that we are unlike our continental neighbours. Our youngsters are on the other side of this Tory culture war, particularly the women. Reform is the only party in Britain with even worse age demographics than the Tories. Its double or quits on a losing hand.
In part I think it that migration to Britain is 75 years old, but much more recent on the continent, so our youngsters have always known it, and our communities less segregated. Partly it is much lower unemployment particularly amongst the young.
All the polling confirms this. Britons are one of the least racist nations in Europe, and numbers citing immigration as an issue much lower than old codgers like @Leon, or indeed the PB Median.
Older liberals equating opposition to immigration with racism is quite self-serving because their financial interests are served by importing workers, but the financial interests of the young are different.
I don't think you're right on the history either. There was post-war immigration to France, Germany, the Netherlands, etc, as well. What was unique about the UK was the fairly long period from the late 1960s to the late 1990s when net migration was around zero and it became a fringe issue.
As much as you try to blame the younger generations problems on migration, that is bullshit. Our population is growing at a very slow rate compared to historical norms.
The problem is the lack of construction, not migration.
Especially since even without migration we'd still need construction that we aren't getting anyway.
A family of 4 moving into the country only need one house between them. 6 grandchildren growing up and becoming adults require 6 houses between them.
In the past decade our over 50s population has grown (net) by more than net migration. That's the real main reason why we need so many more houses
Are you arguing that with a stable national population, we would still need to increase the number of houses exponentially because if you look at an individual nuclear family, there are more grandkids than kids?
I am arguing that with a stable national population we would still need to increase the number of houses dramatically because if you look at national demographics our demographics are changing, yes.
Children typically live with their parents. Parents typically live with their children. (Great-) Grandparents typically don't live with either.
Even if our population numbers are stable, our demographics are not. People are living longer, we have more alive grandparents and great grandparents than ever before who are living in a house without any young people with them.
We need massive construction because of demographics alone.
Sounds like what we need is sheltered accommodation and care homes.
Should people who are fit, healthy and able to live in their own home but are simply old be forced into sheltered accommodation in your eyes?
I suspect a lot of people would be better off long term if they moved to sheltered accommodation sooner rather than later..
A lot of people leave things 1 or 2 years too late…
Sheltered accomodation yes. But not care homes. As I mentioned last week I have seen the inside of a lot of (don't) care homes over the years and I would do everything in my power to prevent my loved ones going into one.
I would just comment that we have lived in our home for 48 years and the youngest of our 3 children was just 18 months old when we moved in
It is the family home and is far too big for us, but we will not move from it and indeed our children and grandchildren would do whatever they could to keep us in our home
Someday, maybe soon, a life changing event will happen to my wife and I, but even then it is possible our youngest may buy his siblings out and continue it as the family home
There's absolutely nothing wrong with you continuing to live in your family home, good for you. But other people also need family homes and that means we need massive construction, even without any population changes just due to demographic changes.
Do you mind if I ask how many years ago it was when your last child moved out of the home? Unlike in the past its not unusual now for people to live in what was their family home for decades beyond their children no longer living there and we need construction for the children to have somewhere to live.
He bought his own home in 2001 so it is 23 years since any of our children lived with us
Exactly.
So for decades now you've lived without children in the home and demographically that is becoming more and more normal, unlike in the past.
This is why we need vast housing construction.
Not intending to pry, but if its been decades presumably now not just your children don't live in your family home but instead have homes of their own, but many of your grandchildren now will be old enough to need homes of their own? And are parents themselves?
This demographics is not anecdotal, its representative of the demographic change across the country.
I said earlier this was great news for the LibDems:
Tories have been tacking hard right to see off RefUK. Thought they had caught the Nigel on the hop. Tory campaign heavily set in winning over Fukkers and wayward Tories. Forget your common or garden Tory, and especially forget your 2019 first time red wall Tory, this is hang em and flog em only. Various mad policy announcements have gone down like a bucke of warm sick - National Service a prime example. Despite this that Tory chasm remains gargantuan. It isn't working Now The Nigel (for it is He) comes back. On a mission to become the next leader of the Conservative Party. Sunak in a mad panic will now try and tack even harder to the right to see him off. The madder the Tories get, the harder they lose. They can't out fUK RefUK, and in trying they lose even more of middle England.
And this is why the Nigel is manna from heaven for the Liberal Democrats. The Tories will unveil ever madder and more repugnant policies over the remaining month, and that just lets us pick up more seats.
"us"?
I take it you're back in the Lib Dems then? I thought you had left them. Sorry if you've already discussed this, not been on here much lately.
PS I agree with your logic entirely. Sunak is ensuring I'll vote for either the Lib Dems or Labour rather than the Tories.
The Lib Dems are going to get far more seats than the Fukkers.
Rochdale is the lib dem candidate in my seat
I respect your commitment to the sanctity of the voting booth by not stating 'and he has my vote'.
I said earlier this was great news for the LibDems:
Tories have been tacking hard right to see off RefUK. Thought they had caught the Nigel on the hop. Tory campaign heavily set in winning over Fukkers and wayward Tories. Forget your common or garden Tory, and especially forget your 2019 first time red wall Tory, this is hang em and flog em only. Various mad policy announcements have gone down like a bucke of warm sick - National Service a prime example. Despite this that Tory chasm remains gargantuan. It isn't working Now The Nigel (for it is He) comes back. On a mission to become the next leader of the Conservative Party. Sunak in a mad panic will now try and tack even harder to the right to see him off. The madder the Tories get, the harder they lose. They can't out fUK RefUK, and in trying they lose even more of middle England.
And this is why the Nigel is manna from heaven for the Liberal Democrats. The Tories will unveil ever madder and more repugnant policies over the remaining month, and that just lets us pick up more seats.
"us"?
I take it you're back in the Lib Dems then? I thought you had left them. Sorry if you've already discussed this, not been on here much lately.
PS I agree with your logic entirely. Sunak is ensuring I'll vote for either the Lib Dems or Labour rather than the Tories.
The Lib Dems are going to get far more seats than the Fukkers.
Rochdale is the lib dem candidate in my seat
Wow I have missed news here then.
Good look @RochdalePioneers - we don't always agree on things, but I know you have your heart in the right place and think you'd be a good addition to Parliament.
gabyhinsliff @gabyhinsliff · 5m …I’m sceptical still about what Reform can deliver on the ground. Quite grateful we don’t have PR at this stage though.
Love The Way You Lie is the title to an Eminem track that best sums up Farage’s appeal to his knuckle-dragging, mouth-breathing, window-licking acolytes.
Eminem is a Woke Libtard. NOT a fan of Farage's heart-throb DJT.
Not sure of status under English (or Scottish) law, but this year Eminem sent a cease and desist letter to Vivek Ramaswamy for using his music without permission or consent.
I really think we should start to consider that the polls will not narrow.
Sunak should have called the election as soon as he took over. In hindsight Johnson should have gone in summer 2021...
(Actually less hindsight for one @CorrectHorseBattery who called the peak of Johnsonism)
The peak of Johnsonism was fairly obviously the day after the Hartlepool by-election. He should have called another general election then, despite it being less than 2 years since the previous one.
Whatever happened to the giant inflatable Bozo?
Probably now as flaccid as the Tories' poll ratings.
Love The Way You Lie is the title to an Eminem track that best sums up Farage’s appeal to his knuckle-dragging, mouth-breathing, window-licking acolytes.
Eminem is a Woke Libtard. NOT a fan of Farage's heart-throb DJT.
Not sure of status under English (or Scottish) law, but this year Eminem sent a cease and desist letter to Vivek Ramaswamy for using his music without permission or consent.
He also sued a party in New Zealand for using a soundalike of one of his songs, I think he's just generally litigious.
Love The Way You Lie is the title to an Eminem track that best sums up Farage’s appeal to his knuckle-dragging, mouth-breathing, window-licking acolytes.
Eminem is a Woke Libtard. NOT a fan of Farage's heart-throb DJT.
Not sure of status under English (or Scottish) law, but this year Eminem sent a cease and desist letter to Vivek Ramaswamy for using his music without permission or consent.
If DJT is looking for music then he should go for the Prodigy. Mr "grab em by the pussy" is surely more of a firestarter and a smack my bitch up kind of politician, while his voters seem to be from out of space.
I’m wondering about the chances Farage’s reemergence as Reform leader and candidate could be a damp squib.
Most likely his announcement today sees Ref jump up a few points in the polls this week at the expense of both Tories and Labour, and possibly the Lib Dems. But is the chance of there being no bounce definitely zero?
Reform were in the early stages of their polling descent as the 4th July date came into view. If Farage slows the decline a bit but they still decline, then what?
I don't understand who'd vote for the Tories? If you like the right wing rhetoric you'd look at the Tory Party's record immigration and culture war capitulation and go for Reform (this is before you factor in the fact that Farage is far better at speeches).
If you don't like the rhetoric you're going LD or Lab.
Yep, right-wing rhetoric mixed with centrist policies is a recipe for electoral disaster. Pleases no-one.
The thing is it’s not even that - every party has to throw red meat to their base from time to time. Indeed it is a bit of a political artform to successfully keep your right/left wings in check while tacking to the centre. The problem the Tories have is that they’re just flat out incompetent. Nobody listens to their right wing pandering, because right wing voters don’t trust them because they’ve made such a mess of it. Centrists don’t hold their nose and vote for them despite the right wing rhetoric, because they’re not competent centrist administrators either.
The biggest crisis facing the Tories is a competency crisis. They have put off so many different classes of voter by just being so bad at governing. When it comes to an election, why should anyone want to vote for them given their track record. This is the single biggest reason why nothing they do delivers any cut through.
Sunak’s basic problem is that most people hate him. But, he’s really carrying the can for the incompetence of May, Johnson, and Truss.
It's worse than that - he's carrying the can for them, and adding his own incompetence into the mix to aggravate matters.
So he deserves to lose, but the scale of the loss will probably be a bit harsh on him personally. But that is always the risk at coming in at the tail end of a long period of office.
Jesus wept! The Deltapoll has VI for 18 to 24 yo of 81% for Labour!!
Natty Serves proving popular....
Reform should look at some of the policies that parties on the continent are using to attract younger voters and try to outflank the Tories.
That is one way that we are unlike our continental neighbours. Our youngsters are on the other side of this Tory culture war, particularly the women. Reform is the only party in Britain with even worse age demographics than the Tories. Its double or quits on a losing hand.
In part I think it that migration to Britain is 75 years old, but much more recent on the continent, so our youngsters have always known it, and our communities less segregated. Partly it is much lower unemployment particularly amongst the young.
All the polling confirms this. Britons are one of the least racist nations in Europe, and numbers citing immigration as an issue much lower than old codgers like @Leon, or indeed the PB Median.
Older liberals equating opposition to immigration with racism is quite self-serving because their financial interests are served by importing workers, but the financial interests of the young are different.
I don't think you're right on the history either. There was post-war immigration to France, Germany, the Netherlands, etc, as well. What was unique about the UK was the fairly long period from the late 1960s to the late 1990s when net migration was around zero and it became a fringe issue.
As much as you try to blame the younger generations problems on migration, that is bullshit. Our population is growing at a very slow rate compared to historical norms.
The problem is the lack of construction, not migration.
Especially since even without migration we'd still need construction that we aren't getting anyway.
A family of 4 moving into the country only need one house between them. 6 grandchildren growing up and becoming adults require 6 houses between them.
In the past decade our over 50s population has grown (net) by more than net migration. That's the real main reason why we need so many more houses
Are you arguing that with a stable national population, we would still need to increase the number of houses exponentially because if you look at an individual nuclear family, there are more grandkids than kids?
I am arguing that with a stable national population we would still need to increase the number of houses dramatically because if you look at national demographics our demographics are changing, yes.
Children typically live with their parents. Parents typically live with their children. (Great-) Grandparents typically don't live with either.
Even if our population numbers are stable, our demographics are not. People are living longer, we have more alive grandparents and great grandparents than ever before who are living in a house without any young people with them.
We need massive construction because of demographics alone.
Sounds like what we need is sheltered accommodation and care homes.
Should people who are fit, healthy and able to live in their own home but are simply old be forced into sheltered accommodation in your eyes?
I suspect a lot of people would be better off long term if they moved to sheltered accommodation sooner rather than later..
A lot of people leave things 1 or 2 years too late…
Sheltered accomodation yes. But not care homes. As I mentioned last week I have seen the inside of a lot of (don't) care homes over the years and I would do everything in my power to prevent my loved ones going into one.
I would just comment that we have lived in our home for 48 years and the youngest of our 3 children was just 18 months old when we moved in
It is the family home and is far too big for us, but we will not move from it and indeed our children and grandchildren would do whatever they could to keep us in our home
Someday, maybe soon, a life changing event will happen to my wife and I, but even then it is possible our youngest may buy his siblings out and continue it as the family home
There's absolutely nothing wrong with you continuing to live in your family home, good for you. But other people also need family homes and that means we need massive construction, even without any population changes just due to demographic changes.
Do you mind if I ask how many years ago it was when your last child moved out of the home? Unlike in the past its not unusual now for people to live in what was their family home for decades beyond their children no longer living there and we need construction for the children to have somewhere to live.
He bought his own home in 2001 so it is 23 years since any of our children lived with us
Exactly.
So for decades now you've lived without children in the home and demographically that is becoming more and more normal, unlike in the past.
This is why we need vast housing construction.
Not intending to pry, but if its been decades presumably now not just your children don't live in your family home but instead have homes of their own, but many of your grandchildren now will be old enough to need homes of their own? And are parents themselves?
This demographics is not anecdotal, its representative of the demographic change across the country.
My eldest granddaughter is 21 and is returning to Leeds University from Turin University for her final year and will be in student accommodation
Her brother is doing his GCEs and is looking to enter catering at our local college in September 2025
Our other 3 are 12, 10 and 18 months
I would just say they all live near us including our children though our eldest (57) lives in Vancouver
All our children have bought their own homes and are not far from completion of their mortgage term
I said earlier this was great news for the LibDems:
Tories have been tacking hard right to see off RefUK. Thought they had caught the Nigel on the hop. Tory campaign heavily set in winning over Fukkers and wayward Tories. Forget your common or garden Tory, and especially forget your 2019 first time red wall Tory, this is hang em and flog em only. Various mad policy announcements have gone down like a bucke of warm sick - National Service a prime example. Despite this that Tory chasm remains gargantuan. It isn't working Now The Nigel (for it is He) comes back. On a mission to become the next leader of the Conservative Party. Sunak in a mad panic will now try and tack even harder to the right to see him off. The madder the Tories get, the harder they lose. They can't out fUK RefUK, and in trying they lose even more of middle England.
And this is why the Nigel is manna from heaven for the Liberal Democrats. The Tories will unveil ever madder and more repugnant policies over the remaining month, and that just lets us pick up more seats.
"us"?
I take it you're back in the Lib Dems then? I thought you had left them. Sorry if you've already discussed this, not been on here much lately.
PS I agree with your logic entirely. Sunak is ensuring I'll vote for either the Lib Dems or Labour rather than the Tories.
The Lib Dems are going to get far more seats than the Fukkers.
I'm the Liberal Democrat candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East...
I’m wondering about the chances Farage’s reemergence as Reform leader and candidate could be a damp squib.
Most likely his announcement today sees Ref jump up a few points in the polls this week at the expense of both Tories and Labour, and possibly the Lib Dems. But is the chance of there being no bounce definitely zero?
Reform were in the early stages of their polling descent as the 4th July date came into view. If Farage slows the decline a bit but they still decline, then what?
A LOT of voters have no idea who Reform is (It is a crap own goal of a name and confusingly bland) - Most voters know who Farage is so Reform will become a lot more associated with UKIP/Brexit in voters eyes which will increase the vote amongst voters who like that
Is Lee Anderson perfectly positioned to broker a Farage Truss dream ticket after the election?
Surely a defeat of Sunak vindicates everything she stood for. 🤪
No
If Sunak goes down, he will take certain strands of Conservative thought with him. Expect Truss to claim that she was right. As an acolyte of Trump she and Farage are natural allies.
So a referendum on the ECHR and then the death penalty next.
Interestingly, Nigel Farage has always been personally against the death penalty. (Probably doesn't reflect the views of most of his party members).
Do we have the cross tabs on support for death penalty vs party?
Personally, I could never support it because the justice system is not infallible.
Tbh if we had an infallible justice system, I’d possibly be in favour of the death penalty for certain crimes. And I certainly understand the emotional desire for it.
But the simple fact that justice is not always done completely rules it out. Even if someone spends decades in prison, compensation and the knowledge of your name being cleared is possible. You can’t bring someone back from the dead, and the thought of someone being wrongly put to death, and knowing they were innocent as the my stepped up to the gibbet, is a nightmarish thought.
Meanwhile, the Met Office is saying May in the UK was the warmest since its records began (in 1884); I hope you all back home appreciated it,
What about before 1884?
The UK time series only goes back to 1884. The longest time series the Central England Temperature goes back to the 1600s. This year had the highest mean minimum temperature in the CET series but not the highest overall mean.
How low the Tories have sunk..... shitting themselves about a man who has failed to be elected 7 times and is not popular in polling with voters to any eye catching extent. Utter Clowns.
Prediction: Farage is yesterday's news and won't shift the dial for Reform very much, even if he does stand and win in Clacton.
The last desperate hope the Tories had of closing the gap was to squeeze the Reform vote. Farage's intervention today makes that long-shot significantly less likely.
Exactly so - it was very apparent that some people have been very keen for this announcement, the Guidos for the world for example, and I can see many waverers following their hearts here.
Yup, it was often remarked that it needed a black swan to change the course of events, and one has now arrived, but not in the direction that was assumed or hoped for.
That's the trouble with swans, you can't control the direction they move in.
Why doesn’t Matthew Goodwin run as an MP? He seems to know everything and just sits on Twitter all day. One wonders why he doesn’t do something useful with his life.
I said earlier this was great news for the LibDems:
Tories have been tacking hard right to see off RefUK. Thought they had caught the Nigel on the hop. Tory campaign heavily set in winning over Fukkers and wayward Tories. Forget your common or garden Tory, and especially forget your 2019 first time red wall Tory, this is hang em and flog em only. Various mad policy announcements have gone down like a bucke of warm sick - National Service a prime example. Despite this that Tory chasm remains gargantuan. It isn't working Now The Nigel (for it is He) comes back. On a mission to become the next leader of the Conservative Party. Sunak in a mad panic will now try and tack even harder to the right to see him off. The madder the Tories get, the harder they lose. They can't out fUK RefUK, and in trying they lose even more of middle England.
And this is why the Nigel is manna from heaven for the Liberal Democrats. The Tories will unveil ever madder and more repugnant policies over the remaining month, and that just lets us pick up more seats.
"us"?
I take it you're back in the Lib Dems then? I thought you had left them. Sorry if you've already discussed this, not been on here much lately.
PS I agree with your logic entirely. Sunak is ensuring I'll vote for either the Lib Dems or Labour rather than the Tories.
The Lib Dems are going to get far more seats than the Fukkers.
Rochdale is the lib dem candidate in my seat
Wow I have missed news here then.
Good look @RochdalePioneers - we don't always agree on things, but I know you have your heart in the right place and think you'd be a good addition to Parliament.
I imagine he would. However, I'm not convinced he is anticipating victory.
How low the Tories have sunk..... shitting themselves about a man who has failed to be elected 7 times and is not popular in polling with voters to any eye catching extent. Utter Clowns.
Prediction: Farage is yesterday's news and won't shift the dial for Reform very much, even if he does stand and win in Clacton.
The last desperate hope the Tories had of closing the gap was to squeeze the Reform vote. Farage's intervention today makes that long-shot significantly less likely.
Exactly so - it was very apparent that some people have been very keen for this announcement, the Guidos for the world for example, and I can see many waverers following their hearts here.
Yup, it was often remarked that it needed a black swan to change the course of events, and one has now arrived, but not in the direction that was assumed or hoped for.
That's the trouble with swans, you can't control the direction they move in.
And if you mess with one they can break your arm*, that is, campaign strategy.
I’m wondering about the chances Farage’s reemergence as Reform leader and candidate could be a damp squib.
Most likely his announcement today sees Ref jump up a few points in the polls this week at the expense of both Tories and Labour, and possibly the Lib Dems. But is the chance of there being no bounce definitely zero?
Reform were in the early stages of their polling descent as the 4th July date came into view. If Farage slows the decline a bit but they still decline, then what?
A LOT of voters have no idea who Reform is (It is a crap own goal of a name and confusingly bland) - Most voters know who Farage is so Reform will become a lot more associated with UKIP/Brexit in voters eyes which will increase the vote amongst voters who like that
Depends. Reform are not polling that much lower than UKIP were in 2015. But back then there was a clear issue on which people voted for them: Brexit. Likewise the BXP in 2019. Now they are relying on anti immigration and anti-woke. I’ve no idea what the ceiling for that vote is but I’m not sure it’s as high as the Eurosceptic vote was.
I said earlier this was great news for the LibDems:
Tories have been tacking hard right to see off RefUK. Thought they had caught the Nigel on the hop. Tory campaign heavily set in winning over Fukkers and wayward Tories. Forget your common or garden Tory, and especially forget your 2019 first time red wall Tory, this is hang em and flog em only. Various mad policy announcements have gone down like a bucke of warm sick - National Service a prime example. Despite this that Tory chasm remains gargantuan. It isn't working Now The Nigel (for it is He) comes back. On a mission to become the next leader of the Conservative Party. Sunak in a mad panic will now try and tack even harder to the right to see him off. The madder the Tories get, the harder they lose. They can't out fUK RefUK, and in trying they lose even more of middle England.
And this is why the Nigel is manna from heaven for the Liberal Democrats. The Tories will unveil ever madder and more repugnant policies over the remaining month, and that just lets us pick up more seats.
"us"?
I take it you're back in the Lib Dems then? I thought you had left them. Sorry if you've already discussed this, not been on here much lately.
PS I agree with your logic entirely. Sunak is ensuring I'll vote for either the Lib Dems or Labour rather than the Tories.
The Lib Dems are going to get far more seats than the Fukkers.
Rochdale is the lib dem candidate in my seat
Wow I have missed news here then.
Good look @RochdalePioneers - we don't always agree on things, but I know you have your heart in the right place and think you'd be a good addition to Parliament.
I imagine he would. However, I'm not convinced he is anticipating victory.
If he was wanting victory, he wouldn't have joined the Lib Dems.
Is Lee Anderson perfectly positioned to broker a Farage Truss dream ticket after the election?
Surely a defeat of Sunak vindicates everything she stood for. 🤪
No
If Sunak goes down, he will take certain strands of Conservative thought with him. Expect Truss to claim that she was right. As an acolyte of Trump she and Farage are natural allies.
The best thing that could possibly happen is Farage hitching himself to The Trusster…
She’s electoral poison and she’ll bring down anyone she’s allied to.
I'm also working for a few more weeks, juggling big client, YouTube, and the shop with a social media-led election campaign. With our MP away in hospital (in Glasgow) long term its a relatively quiet campaign locally.
Had to drive to Blantyre today for a meeting. Dropped into Tesla Glasgow to film a Cybertruck video (as they have one on display) - last week's video has been a monster so hoping I can make it 2 on the bounce.
What happens as I come out of Tesla Glasgow having shot the film? A bloke gets out of his car, says "hi Ian" and starts telling me how much he loves my channel and how my videos are a big driver as to why he decided to "Just Get a Tesla".
Blimey! It was nice to hear. If only I could expect a similar warm reception from a majority of the good people of ANME...
Is Lee Anderson perfectly positioned to broker a Farage Truss dream ticket after the election?
Surely a defeat of Sunak vindicates everything she stood for. 🤪
No
If Sunak goes down, he will take certain strands of Conservative thought with him. Expect Truss to claim that she was right. As an acolyte of Trump she and Farage are natural allies.
Truss can claim whatever she wants, but history will show that she handed Labour the biggest election gift ever in politics and should join Farage in Reform (though I expect him to lose and be on a plane to the US on the 5th July)
Why doesn’t Matthew Goodwin run as an MP? He seems to know everything and just sits on Twitter all day. One wonders why he doesn’t do something useful with his life.
He's a professor of government at Essex university.
Is Lee Anderson perfectly positioned to broker a Farage Truss dream ticket after the election?
Surely a defeat of Sunak vindicates everything she stood for. 🤪
No
If Sunak goes down, he will take certain strands of Conservative thought with him. Expect Truss to claim that she was right. As an acolyte of Trump she and Farage are natural allies.
The best thing that could possibly happen is Farage hitching himself to The Trusster…
She’s electoral poison and she’ll bring down anyone she’s allied to.
Journalists should be asking him about Putin and Trump. He’s a fan of both, and both are more toxic than Truss.
Is Lee Anderson perfectly positioned to broker a Farage Truss dream ticket after the election?
Surely a defeat of Sunak vindicates everything she stood for. 🤪
No
If Sunak goes down, he will take certain strands of Conservative thought with him. Expect Truss to claim that she was right. As an acolyte of Trump she and Farage are natural allies.
Truss can claim whatever she wants, but history will show that she handed Labour the biggest election gift ever in politics and should join Farage in Reform (though I expect him to lose and be on a plane to the US on the 5th July)
@PippaCrerar Oh dear. The Conservatives’ first election broadcast shows the union flag flying the wrong way up, which is a distress signal… (h/t @Markwmw_02 )
I’m wondering about the chances Farage’s reemergence as Reform leader and candidate could be a damp squib.
Most likely his announcement today sees Ref jump up a few points in the polls this week at the expense of both Tories and Labour, and possibly the Lib Dems. But is the chance of there being no bounce definitely zero?
Reform were in the early stages of their polling descent as the 4th July date came into view. If Farage slows the decline a bit but they still decline, then what?
A LOT of voters have no idea who Reform is (It is a crap own goal of a name and confusingly bland) - Most voters know who Farage is so Reform will become a lot more associated with UKIP/Brexit in voters eyes which will increase the vote amongst voters who like that
I wonder if they may lose a lot too? Low information voters hear Reform. Yes, that's what we need! Reform by Farage? Maybe not for everyone.
Is Lee Anderson perfectly positioned to broker a Farage Truss dream ticket after the election?
Surely a defeat of Sunak vindicates everything she stood for. 🤪
No
If Sunak goes down, he will take certain strands of Conservative thought with him. Expect Truss to claim that she was right. As an acolyte of Trump she and Farage are natural allies.
Truss can claim whatever she wants, but history will show that she handed Labour the biggest election gift ever in politics and should join Farage in Reform (though I expect him to lose and be on a plane to the US on the 5th July)
Sunak is worse than Truss.
Even Truss wasn't mad enough to talk about National Service.
Is Lee Anderson perfectly positioned to broker a Farage Truss dream ticket after the election?
Surely a defeat of Sunak vindicates everything she stood for. 🤪
No
If Sunak goes down, he will take certain strands of Conservative thought with him. Expect Truss to claim that she was right. As an acolyte of Trump she and Farage are natural allies.
Truss can claim whatever she wants, but history will show that she handed Labour the biggest election gift ever in politics and should join Farage in Reform (though I expect him to lose and be on a plane to the US on the 5th July)
Ah, but you see it would be Sunak’s defeat not Truss’s.
If you were Farage would you want to win in Clacton?
South Thanet 2015 was a perfect result for him, close loss, he could argue that he would have won if the Tory machine hadn't cheated. But if he gets elected, then he'll be stuck at Westminster in the most depressing of positions, an opposition backbencher, he'll have to do constituency surgeries, actually handle people's problems. That doesn't sound like Farage stuff to me.
I don't know. He might rather like it. Giving his oath of allegiance to the monarch. Being allowed to bad-mouth all the other politicians from the green benches - he enjoyed doing that whenever he showed up to the EU Parliament. Having access by right to the bars, etc. The history and pomp and ceremony. The thought that so many people (and other MPs) hated him being there, and just being there was two fingers up to them all.
He doesn't have to show up all the time. He gets to employ staff to help with the constituency work.
I’m wondering about the chances Farage’s reemergence as Reform leader and candidate could be a damp squib.
Most likely his announcement today sees Ref jump up a few points in the polls this week at the expense of both Tories and Labour, and possibly the Lib Dems. But is the chance of there being no bounce definitely zero?
Reform were in the early stages of their polling descent as the 4th July date came into view. If Farage slows the decline a bit but they still decline, then what?
Other than name recognition, what does he bring is the question. There's simply no Brexit on the ballot this time, so his 'USP' is shot. He might grab a few Tories, probably a few more of the former tories squatting in Labour because they dont know where else to go, it might add a bit but the nonsense about 'extinction level' ...... why? He's got nothing to grab the attention.
How low the Tories have sunk..... shitting themselves about a man who has failed to be elected 7 times and is not popular in polling with voters to any eye catching extent. Utter Clowns.
Prediction: Farage is yesterday's news and won't shift the dial for Reform very much, even if he does stand and win in Clacton.
The last desperate hope the Tories had of closing the gap was to squeeze the Reform vote. Farage's intervention today makes that long-shot significantly less likely.
Exactly so - it was very apparent that some people have been very keen for this announcement, the Guidos for the world for example, and I can see many waverers following their hearts here.
Yup, it was often remarked that it needed a black swan to change the course of events, and one has now arrived, but not in the direction that was assumed or hoped for.
That's the trouble with swans, you can't control the direction they move in.
Is Lee Anderson perfectly positioned to broker a Farage Truss dream ticket after the election?
Surely a defeat of Sunak vindicates everything she stood for. 🤪
No
If Sunak goes down, he will take certain strands of Conservative thought with him. Expect Truss to claim that she was right. As an acolyte of Trump she and Farage are natural allies.
The best thing that could possibly happen is Farage hitching himself to The Trusster…
She’s electoral poison and she’ll bring down anyone she’s allied to.
Journalists should be asking him about Putin and Trump. He’s a fan of both, and both are more toxic than Truss.
Although I don't agree with him on most things I actually think Farage comes across as pretty likeable much of the time, he does come across as different to our rather staid political class without being just performatively crass, but it's stuff like that which reminds you that is not a figure of fun.
I said earlier this was great news for the LibDems:
Tories have been tacking hard right to see off RefUK. Thought they had caught the Nigel on the hop. Tory campaign heavily set in winning over Fukkers and wayward Tories. Forget your common or garden Tory, and especially forget your 2019 first time red wall Tory, this is hang em and flog em only. Various mad policy announcements have gone down like a bucke of warm sick - National Service a prime example. Despite this that Tory chasm remains gargantuan. It isn't working Now The Nigel (for it is He) comes back. On a mission to become the next leader of the Conservative Party. Sunak in a mad panic will now try and tack even harder to the right to see him off. The madder the Tories get, the harder they lose. They can't out fUK RefUK, and in trying they lose even more of middle England.
And this is why the Nigel is manna from heaven for the Liberal Democrats. The Tories will unveil ever madder and more repugnant policies over the remaining month, and that just lets us pick up more seats.
"us"?
I take it you're back in the Lib Dems then? I thought you had left them. Sorry if you've already discussed this, not been on here much lately.
PS I agree with your logic entirely. Sunak is ensuring I'll vote for either the Lib Dems or Labour rather than the Tories.
The Lib Dems are going to get far more seats than the Fukkers.
Rochdale is the lib dem candidate in my seat
Wow I have missed news here then.
Good look @RochdalePioneers - we don't always agree on things, but I know you have your heart in the right place and think you'd be a good addition to Parliament.
I imagine he would. However, I'm not convinced he is anticipating victory.
As things stand, it's looking like 4th out of 4. No idea whether new candidates are incoming or not.
I've always said I'm voting against the Tories in the next election, which for the longest time looked like a nailed on SNP vote from me. But things are a little more exciting now. The FindOutNow MRP has it as SNP 31% Labour 24% Conservative 23% Green 8% Lib Dem 5% Other 9%
So Labour are very much in play again. But the Green and Other (Alba?) are interesting. Quite high numbers but no sign of any candidates yet. I still see the SNP as the best bet for unseating Duguid (and I hope he's recovering well from his health scare), but we've got weeks to go yet so no need to rush to a decision yet.
@PippaCrerar Oh dear. The Conservatives’ first election broadcast shows the union flag flying the wrong way up, which is a distress signal… (h/t @Markwmw_02 )
Few people watching it would have noticed, but it is the kind of amusement that will circulate quickly.
Why doesn’t Matthew Goodwin run as an MP? He seems to know everything and just sits on Twitter all day. One wonders why he doesn’t do something useful with his life.
He's a professor of government at Essex university.
Staggering that they pay him when bullshit is free.
Why doesn’t Matthew Goodwin run as an MP? He seems to know everything and just sits on Twitter all day. One wonders why he doesn’t do something useful with his life.
He's a professor of government at Essex university.
I’m wondering about the chances Farage’s reemergence as Reform leader and candidate could be a damp squib.
Most likely his announcement today sees Ref jump up a few points in the polls this week at the expense of both Tories and Labour, and possibly the Lib Dems. But is the chance of there being no bounce definitely zero?
Reform were in the early stages of their polling descent as the 4th July date came into view. If Farage slows the decline a bit but they still decline, then what?
A LOT of voters have no idea who Reform is (It is a crap own goal of a name and confusingly bland) - Most voters know who Farage is so Reform will become a lot more associated with UKIP/Brexit in voters eyes which will increase the vote amongst voters who like that
I'm making the left field suggestion that Farage's entry is a "Hail Mary" from the backers of Reform/Conservative right. Cons have been losing 2019 red wall voters to Labour, now they'll split Reform / Labour which could Cons to save a few seats. EC had Clacton as Lab/Con marginal, now it's Reform/Con.
Is Lee Anderson perfectly positioned to broker a Farage Truss dream ticket after the election?
Surely a defeat of Sunak vindicates everything she stood for. 🤪
No
If Sunak goes down, he will take certain strands of Conservative thought with him. Expect Truss to claim that she was right. As an acolyte of Trump she and Farage are natural allies.
Truss can claim whatever she wants, but history will show that she handed Labour the biggest election gift ever in politics and should join Farage in Reform (though I expect him to lose and be on a plane to the US on the 5th July)
Sunak is worse than Truss.
Even Truss wasn't mad enough to talk about National Service.
Nobody in history has been worse for the conservative party than Truss and that includes Johnson
I’m wondering about the chances Farage’s reemergence as Reform leader and candidate could be a damp squib.
Most likely his announcement today sees Ref jump up a few points in the polls this week at the expense of both Tories and Labour, and possibly the Lib Dems. But is the chance of there being no bounce definitely zero?
Reform were in the early stages of their polling descent as the 4th July date came into view. If Farage slows the decline a bit but they still decline, then what?
Other than name recognition, what does he bring is the question. There's simply no Brexit on the ballot this time, so his 'USP' is shot. He might grab a few Tories, probably a few more of the former tories squatting in Labour because they dont know where else to go, it might add a bit but the nonsense about 'extinction level' ...... why? He's got nothing to grab the attention.
I’m wondering about the chances Farage’s reemergence as Reform leader and candidate could be a damp squib.
Most likely his announcement today sees Ref jump up a few points in the polls this week at the expense of both Tories and Labour, and possibly the Lib Dems. But is the chance of there being no bounce definitely zero?
Reform were in the early stages of their polling descent as the 4th July date came into view. If Farage slows the decline a bit but they still decline, then what?
Other than name recognition, what does he bring is the question. There's simply no Brexit on the ballot this time, so his 'USP' is shot. He might grab a few Tories, probably a few more of the former tories squatting in Labour because they dont know where else to go, it might add a bit but the nonsense about 'extinction level' ...... why? He's got nothing to grab the attention.
The USP he is going with is immigration. He knows neither the Tories or Labour have a good record of getting immigration down, so he can bang on and on about it. He did it today at his announcement. Also, the media have done the racist / xenophobic angle for donkeys years and so I don't think it changes any minds now.
He then expands this into there is a Westminster consensus on other issues, which he uses as a wedge.
I’m wondering about the chances Farage’s reemergence as Reform leader and candidate could be a damp squib.
Most likely his announcement today sees Ref jump up a few points in the polls this week at the expense of both Tories and Labour, and possibly the Lib Dems. But is the chance of there being no bounce definitely zero?
Reform were in the early stages of their polling descent as the 4th July date came into view. If Farage slows the decline a bit but they still decline, then what?
Other than name recognition, what does he bring is the question. There's simply no Brexit on the ballot this time, so his 'USP' is shot. He might grab a few Tories, probably a few more of the former tories squatting in Labour because they dont know where else to go, it might add a bit but the nonsense about 'extinction level' ...... why? He's got nothing to grab the attention.
He thrives on disillusionment. His trick is to persuade people that things will be magically better if we wave a magic wand and make immigration and wokeism go away. It will be like the [insert decade here] where everyone got along, ate apple pie and rejoiced in being British.
Basically the parlour game of every populist in the West.
Talking of parties starting their descent towards the election landing strip, it looks like the Greens are well and truly past Canary Wharf and into the steep drop towards City Airport.
Not surprising, though I thought Gaza and the Starmer purges might keep them buoyant for a while. Main beneficiary probably Labour.
I said earlier this was great news for the LibDems:
Tories have been tacking hard right to see off RefUK. Thought they had caught the Nigel on the hop. Tory campaign heavily set in winning over Fukkers and wayward Tories. Forget your common or garden Tory, and especially forget your 2019 first time red wall Tory, this is hang em and flog em only. Various mad policy announcements have gone down like a bucke of warm sick - National Service a prime example. Despite this that Tory chasm remains gargantuan. It isn't working Now The Nigel (for it is He) comes back. On a mission to become the next leader of the Conservative Party. Sunak in a mad panic will now try and tack even harder to the right to see him off. The madder the Tories get, the harder they lose. They can't out fUK RefUK, and in trying they lose even more of middle England.
And this is why the Nigel is manna from heaven for the Liberal Democrats. The Tories will unveil ever madder and more repugnant policies over the remaining month, and that just lets us pick up more seats.
"us"?
I take it you're back in the Lib Dems then? I thought you had left them. Sorry if you've already discussed this, not been on here much lately.
PS I agree with your logic entirely. Sunak is ensuring I'll vote for either the Lib Dems or Labour rather than the Tories.
The Lib Dems are going to get far more seats than the Fukkers.
Rochdale is the lib dem candidate in my seat
Wow I have missed news here then.
Good look @RochdalePioneers - we don't always agree on things, but I know you have your heart in the right place and think you'd be a good addition to Parliament.
I imagine he would. However, I'm not convinced he is anticipating victory.
As things stand, it's looking like 4th out of 4. No idea whether new candidates are incoming or not.
I've always said I'm voting against the Tories in the next election, which for the longest time looked like a nailed on SNP vote from me. But things are a little more exciting now. The FindOutNow MRP has it as SNP 31% Labour 24% Conservative 23% Green 8% Lib Dem 5% Other 9%
So Labour are very much in play again. But the Green and Other (Alba?) are interesting. Quite high numbers but no sign of any candidates yet. I still see the SNP as the best bet for unseating Duguid (and I hope he's recovering well from his health scare), but we've got weeks to go yet so no need to rush to a decision yet.
I mean Labour lost their deposit in Banff in 2019 and haven't got above 14% in B and B since 1983, they ain't getting second there even withany boundary changes
I’m wondering about the chances Farage’s reemergence as Reform leader and candidate could be a damp squib.
Most likely his announcement today sees Ref jump up a few points in the polls this week at the expense of both Tories and Labour, and possibly the Lib Dems. But is the chance of there being no bounce definitely zero?
Reform were in the early stages of their polling descent as the 4th July date came into view. If Farage slows the decline a bit but they still decline, then what?
Other than name recognition, what does he bring is the question. There's simply no Brexit on the ballot this time, so his 'USP' is shot. He might grab a few Tories, probably a few more of the former tories squatting in Labour because they dont know where else to go, it might add a bit but the nonsense about 'extinction level' ...... why? He's got nothing to grab the attention.
I would suggest he changes the name of the party to 'Nigel Farage's Reform Party'. Nothing to lose. Those who hate NF will know which vehicle is his and avoid it anyway. Those well disposed to him 'seen him on the jungle' etc. will be more prompted to poll and vote for RefUK.
The killer for any political party is prolonged high inflation, high interest rates. It is nearly impossible to come back from that, as it hits everybody every day and the effects of the inflation aspect can't be reversed.
One thing that looks a bit strange with the YouGov MRP is the vote shares in Scotland (and the resultant seat scores in Scotland, I assume).
The averages of the three polls in Scotland since the election announcement have been:
Con 17, Lab 36, LD 8.7, SNP 36
The average scores in the constituencies in Scotland in the YouGov has: Con 11.3, Lab 34.1, LD 5.3, SNP 32.7, Others 16.6 (7.1% Green, 4.1% Reform, 5.5% Other Others (Alba?))
Of course, as constituencies aren't identical sizes, the average of constituencies won't be the same as the average across Scotland, but it won't be far off at all.
This looks to boost Lab and SNP at the expense of Con and LD.
I’m wondering about the chances Farage’s reemergence as Reform leader and candidate could be a damp squib.
Most likely his announcement today sees Ref jump up a few points in the polls this week at the expense of both Tories and Labour, and possibly the Lib Dems. But is the chance of there being no bounce definitely zero?
Reform were in the early stages of their polling descent as the 4th July date came into view. If Farage slows the decline a bit but they still decline, then what?
Other than name recognition, what does he bring is the question. There's simply no Brexit on the ballot this time, so his 'USP' is shot. He might grab a few Tories, probably a few more of the former tories squatting in Labour because they dont know where else to go, it might add a bit but the nonsense about 'extinction level' ...... why? He's got nothing to grab the attention.
I’m wondering about the chances Farage’s reemergence as Reform leader and candidate could be a damp squib.
Most likely his announcement today sees Ref jump up a few points in the polls this week at the expense of both Tories and Labour, and possibly the Lib Dems. But is the chance of there being no bounce definitely zero?
Reform were in the early stages of their polling descent as the 4th July date came into view. If Farage slows the decline a bit but they still decline, then what?
Other than name recognition, what does he bring is the question. There's simply no Brexit on the ballot this time, so his 'USP' is shot. He might grab a few Tories, probably a few more of the former tories squatting in Labour because they dont know where else to go, it might add a bit but the nonsense about 'extinction level' ...... why? He's got nothing to grab the attention.
The USP he is going with is immigration. He knows neither the Tories or Labour have a good record of getting immigration down, so he can bang on and on about it. He did it today at his announcement. Also, the media have done the racist / xenophobic angle for donkeys years and so I don't think it changes any minds now.
He then expands this into there is a Westminster consensus on other issues, which he uses as a wedge.
Trouble is, if he wins a constituency he then has to follow the rules. I can't see the BBC inviting him onto so many QTs, for instance, without there being real trouble for them.
Is Lee Anderson perfectly positioned to broker a Farage Truss dream ticket after the election?
Surely a defeat of Sunak vindicates everything she stood for. 🤪
No
If Sunak goes down, he will take certain strands of Conservative thought with him. Expect Truss to claim that she was right. As an acolyte of Trump she and Farage are natural allies.
Truss can claim whatever she wants, but history will show that she handed Labour the biggest election gift ever in politics and should join Farage in Reform (though I expect him to lose and be on a plane to the US on the 5th July)
Sunak is worse than Truss.
Even Truss wasn't mad enough to talk about National Service.
Nobody in history has been worse for the conservative party than Truss and that includes Johnson
Rishi Sunak calling an early election and running on a platform of bringing back National Service nearly seventy years after it was rightly abolished is even worse than both Truss and Johnson.
A true right wing leader, Ronald Reagan, famously had a slogan that "the buck stops here" - well the buck stops here for Sunak too and this is his defeat when it happens.
Is Lee Anderson perfectly positioned to broker a Farage Truss dream ticket after the election?
Surely a defeat of Sunak vindicates everything she stood for. 🤪
No
If Sunak goes down, he will take certain strands of Conservative thought with him. Expect Truss to claim that she was right. As an acolyte of Trump she and Farage are natural allies.
Truss can claim whatever she wants, but history will show that she handed Labour the biggest election gift ever in politics and should join Farage in Reform (though I expect him to lose and be on a plane to the US on the 5th July)
Sunak is worse than Truss.
Even Truss wasn't mad enough to talk about National Service.
Well, who knows where she might have ended up had she the time, especially given the direction she has recently moved in, but that he had so much time and came up with that idea is in some ways worse than rushing through some idea out of a misplaced idea that urgency means you shouldn't prepare. It means he thought it through, or had time to, and that was his conclusion.
I don't understand who'd vote for the Tories? If you like the right wing rhetoric you'd look at the Tory Party's record immigration and culture war capitulation and go for Reform (this is before you factor in the fact that Farage is far better at speeches).
If you don't like the rhetoric you're going LD or Lab.
Yep, right-wing rhetoric mixed with centrist policies is a recipe for electoral disaster. Pleases no-one.
The thing is it’s not even that - every party has to throw red meat to their base from time to time. Indeed it is a bit of a political artform to successfully keep your right/left wings in check while tacking to the centre. The problem the Tories have is that they’re just flat out incompetent. Nobody listens to their right wing pandering, because right wing voters don’t trust them because they’ve made such a mess of it. Centrists don’t hold their nose and vote for them despite the right wing rhetoric, because they’re not competent centrist administrators either.
The biggest crisis facing the Tories is a competency crisis. They have put off so many different classes of voter by just being so bad at governing. When it comes to an election, why should anyone want to vote for them given their track record. This is the single biggest reason why nothing they do delivers any cut through.
This is spot on tbh.
It’s implicit throughout their lame excuse of a PEB as well (the quality of which is also a statement on the competence of his team).
I’m wondering about the chances Farage’s reemergence as Reform leader and candidate could be a damp squib.
Most likely his announcement today sees Ref jump up a few points in the polls this week at the expense of both Tories and Labour, and possibly the Lib Dems. But is the chance of there being no bounce definitely zero?
Reform were in the early stages of their polling descent as the 4th July date came into view. If Farage slows the decline a bit but they still decline, then what?
Other than name recognition, what does he bring is the question. There's simply no Brexit on the ballot this time, so his 'USP' is shot. He might grab a few Tories, probably a few more of the former tories squatting in Labour because they dont know where else to go, it might add a bit but the nonsense about 'extinction level' ...... why? He's got nothing to grab the attention.
I’m wondering about the chances Farage’s reemergence as Reform leader and candidate could be a damp squib.
Most likely his announcement today sees Ref jump up a few points in the polls this week at the expense of both Tories and Labour, and possibly the Lib Dems. But is the chance of there being no bounce definitely zero?
Reform were in the early stages of their polling descent as the 4th July date came into view. If Farage slows the decline a bit but they still decline, then what?
Other than name recognition, what does he bring is the question. There's simply no Brexit on the ballot this time, so his 'USP' is shot. He might grab a few Tories, probably a few more of the former tories squatting in Labour because they dont know where else to go, it might add a bit but the nonsense about 'extinction level' ...... why? He's got nothing to grab the attention.
The USP he is going with is immigration. He knows neither the Tories or Labour have a good record of getting immigration down, so he can bang on and on about it. He did it today at his announcement. Also, the media have done the racist / xenophobic angle for donkeys years and so I don't think it changes any minds now.
He then expands this into there is a Westminster consensus on other issues, which he uses as a wedge.
Trouble is, if he wins a constituency he then has to follow the rules. I can't see the BBC inviting him onto so many QTs, for instance, without there being real trouble for them.
As a canny operator he has long since branched out into YouTube and I presume GB News will happy to have him on given he is / was the presenter with the most viewers (regularly getting more than any other news channel at that time slot).
How many people even watch things like Newsnight and QT these days, which used to be essential for building some sort of awareness.
I said earlier this was great news for the LibDems:
Tories have been tacking hard right to see off RefUK. Thought they had caught the Nigel on the hop. Tory campaign heavily set in winning over Fukkers and wayward Tories. Forget your common or garden Tory, and especially forget your 2019 first time red wall Tory, this is hang em and flog em only. Various mad policy announcements have gone down like a bucke of warm sick - National Service a prime example. Despite this that Tory chasm remains gargantuan. It isn't working Now The Nigel (for it is He) comes back. On a mission to become the next leader of the Conservative Party. Sunak in a mad panic will now try and tack even harder to the right to see him off. The madder the Tories get, the harder they lose. They can't out fUK RefUK, and in trying they lose even more of middle England.
And this is why the Nigel is manna from heaven for the Liberal Democrats. The Tories will unveil ever madder and more repugnant policies over the remaining month, and that just lets us pick up more seats.
"us"?
I take it you're back in the Lib Dems then? I thought you had left them. Sorry if you've already discussed this, not been on here much lately.
PS I agree with your logic entirely. Sunak is ensuring I'll vote for either the Lib Dems or Labour rather than the Tories.
The Lib Dems are going to get far more seats than the Fukkers.
Rochdale is the lib dem candidate in my seat
Wow I have missed news here then.
Good look @RochdalePioneers - we don't always agree on things, but I know you have your heart in the right place and think you'd be a good addition to Parliament.
I imagine he would. However, I'm not convinced he is anticipating victory.
As things stand, it's looking like 4th out of 4. No idea whether new candidates are incoming or not.
I've always said I'm voting against the Tories in the next election, which for the longest time looked like a nailed on SNP vote from me. But things are a little more exciting now. The FindOutNow MRP has it as SNP 31% Labour 24% Conservative 23% Green 8% Lib Dem 5% Other 9%
So Labour are very much in play again. But the Green and Other (Alba?) are interesting. Quite high numbers but no sign of any candidates yet. I still see the SNP as the best bet for unseating Duguid (and I hope he's recovering well from his health scare), but we've got weeks to go yet so no need to rush to a decision yet.
I mean Labour lost their deposit in Banff in 2019 and haven't got above 14% in B and B since 1983, they ain't getting second there even withany boundary changes
I'm amazed to see them riding so high in that poll, but it strikes me as within the realms of possibility. I suspect that their ground game is non-existent here, though, which makes getting out the vote a tough prospect. The SNP and Conservatives have a presence here and have been out campaigning, which is part of the reason I'm still reasonably sure it's between the two of them. But there's ages to go. Anything could happen. When nominations close, there'll at least be clarity about who's on the table. I'm not quite sure which way "Green" VI will break. It won't all go SNP for sure.
I’m wondering about the chances Farage’s reemergence as Reform leader and candidate could be a damp squib.
Most likely his announcement today sees Ref jump up a few points in the polls this week at the expense of both Tories and Labour, and possibly the Lib Dems. But is the chance of there being no bounce definitely zero?
Reform were in the early stages of their polling descent as the 4th July date came into view. If Farage slows the decline a bit but they still decline, then what?
Other than name recognition, what does he bring is the question. There's simply no Brexit on the ballot this time, so his 'USP' is shot. He might grab a few Tories, probably a few more of the former tories squatting in Labour because they dont know where else to go, it might add a bit but the nonsense about 'extinction level' ...... why? He's got nothing to grab the attention.
I would suggest he changes the name of the party to 'Nigel Farage's Reform Party'. Nothing to lose. Those who hate NF will know which vehicle is his and avoid it anyway. Those well disposed to him 'seen him on the jungle' etc. will be more prompted to poll and vote for RefUK.
Wouldn't even need to change the party name I think, just register a party description to that effect?
Not sure if that is any easier or quicker, there isn't much time, but would presumably also allow them to selectively use it if they wanted.
Comments
I take it you're back in the Lib Dems then? I thought you had left them. Sorry if you've already discussed this, not been on here much lately.
PS I agree with your logic entirely. Sunak is ensuring I'll vote for either the Lib Dems or Labour rather than the Tories.
The Lib Dems are going to get far more seats than the Fukkers.
It took Checkley Cricket Club’s second team just one legal delivery to chase down their target and beat their opposition on Sunday.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2024/06/03/checkley-cricket-club-team-chase-target-one-ball-wedgwood/
"Rishi Sunak, the UK’s chancellor, is widely deemed to be doing a stellar job. Not only that, he’s doing a stellar job in the most unlikely, demanding and critical of circumstances. He’s been dubbed ‘a style hero’, has now entered popular consciousness as ‘dishy Rishi’ (largely thanks to his tabloid nickname) and is touted as the ‘next Prime Minister’.
Now, drilling down, who are the movers and shakers who can be credited for promoting and finessing Brand Rishi? Meet Cass – Cassian – Horowitz, the 29-year-old son of the author Anthony Horowitz (of the hugely successful Alex Rider series and a number of James Bond books). His job title is ‘special advisor to the Chancellor at HM Treasury’ but he’s also a co-founder of creative agency The Clerkenwell Brothers (alongside his own brother, Marlborough-educated Nicholas Horowitz, another video whizz). The agency works across multifarious projects, from ITV’s Peston to a CBD product, and Cass is known to be a tried and tested social media guru."
Back in 1997, John Major had the problem of local candidates going against agreed Party policy on the single currency. My understanding then was a candidate's Election Address was their statement and didn't need to be approved centrally - it may be different now.
So for decades now you've lived without children in the home and demographically that is becoming more and more normal, unlike in the past.
This is why we need vast housing construction.
Not intending to pry, but if its been decades presumably now not just your children don't live in your family home but instead have homes of their own, but many of your grandchildren now will be old enough to need homes of their own? And are parents themselves?
This demographics is not anecdotal, its representative of the demographic change across the country.
Surely a defeat of Sunak vindicates everything she stood for. 🤪
Good look @RochdalePioneers - we don't always agree on things, but I know you have your heart in the right place and think you'd be a good addition to Parliament.
@gabyhinsliff
·
5m
…I’m sceptical still about what Reform can deliver on the ground. Quite grateful we don’t have PR at this stage though.
https://x.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1797729491273625996
Not sure of status under English (or Scottish) law, but this year Eminem sent a cease and desist letter to Vivek Ramaswamy for using his music without permission or consent.
Probably now as flaccid as the Tories' poll ratings.
Most likely his announcement today sees Ref jump up a few points in the polls this week at the expense of both Tories and Labour, and possibly the Lib Dems. But is the chance of there being no bounce definitely zero?
Reform were in the early stages of their polling descent as the 4th July date came into view. If Farage slows the decline a bit but they still decline, then what?
The biggest crisis facing the Tories is a competency crisis. They have put off so many different classes of voter by just being so bad at governing. When it comes to an election, why should anyone want to vote for them given their track record. This is the single biggest reason why nothing they do delivers any cut through.
So he deserves to lose, but the scale of the loss will probably be a bit harsh on him personally. But that is always the risk at coming in at the tail end of a long period of office.
Her brother is doing his GCEs and is looking to enter catering at our local college in September 2025
Our other 3 are 12, 10 and 18 months
I would just say they all live near us including our children though our eldest (57) lives in Vancouver
All our children have bought their own homes and are not far from completion of their mortgage term
But the simple fact that justice is not always done completely rules it out. Even if someone spends decades in prison, compensation and the knowledge of your name being cleared is possible. You can’t bring someone back from the dead, and the thought of someone being wrongly put to death, and knowing they were innocent as the my stepped up to the gibbet, is a nightmarish thought.
However, I'm not convinced he is anticipating victory.
*this may be a myth.
She’s electoral poison and she’ll bring down anyone she’s allied to.
Had to drive to Blantyre today for a meeting. Dropped into Tesla Glasgow to film a Cybertruck video (as they have one on display) - last week's video has been a monster so hoping I can make it 2 on the bounce.
What happens as I come out of Tesla Glasgow having shot the film? A bloke gets out of his car, says "hi Ian" and starts telling me how much he loves my channel and how my videos are a big driver as to why he decided to "Just Get a Tesla".
Blimey! It was nice to hear. If only I could expect a similar warm reception from a majority of the good people of ANME...
Pippa Crerar
@PippaCrerar
Oh dear. The Conservatives’ first election broadcast shows the union flag flying the wrong way up, which is a distress signal…
(h/t
@Markwmw_02
)
Low information voters hear Reform.
Yes, that's what we need!
Reform by Farage? Maybe not for everyone.
Even Truss wasn't mad enough to talk about National Service.
He doesn't have to show up all the time. He gets to employ staff to help with the constituency work.
I could easily see him loving it.
LAB: 43% (+3)
CON: 26% (-2)
RFM: 12% (=)
LDM: 11% (+1)
GRN: 3% (-2)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via
@JLPartnersPolls
, 31 May - 2 Jun.
Changes w/ 24-25 May.
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1797702518635663472
I've always said I'm voting against the Tories in the next election, which for the longest time looked like a nailed on SNP vote from me. But things are a little more exciting now. The FindOutNow MRP has it as
SNP 31%
Labour 24%
Conservative 23%
Green 8%
Lib Dem 5%
Other 9%
So Labour are very much in play again. But the Green and Other (Alba?) are interesting. Quite high numbers but no sign of any candidates yet. I still see the SNP as the best bet for unseating Duguid (and I hope he's recovering well from his health scare), but we've got weeks to go yet so no need to rush to a decision yet.
I don’t think there’s a mole or a conspiracy at CCHQ. They are just really shit.
EC had Clacton as Lab/Con marginal, now it's Reform/Con.
He then expands this into there is a Westminster consensus on other issues, which he uses as a wedge.
Basically the parlour game of every populist in the West.
Not surprising, though I thought Gaza and the Starmer purges might keep them buoyant for a while. Main beneficiary probably Labour.
The averages of the three polls in Scotland since the election announcement have been:
Con 17, Lab 36, LD 8.7, SNP 36
The average scores in the constituencies in Scotland in the YouGov has:
Con 11.3, Lab 34.1, LD 5.3, SNP 32.7, Others 16.6 (7.1% Green, 4.1% Reform, 5.5% Other Others (Alba?))
Of course, as constituencies aren't identical sizes, the average of constituencies won't be the same as the average across Scotland, but it won't be far off at all.
This looks to boost Lab and SNP at the expense of Con and LD.
A true right wing leader, Ronald Reagan, famously had a slogan that "the buck stops here" - well the buck stops here for Sunak too and this is his defeat when it happens.
It’s implicit throughout their lame excuse of a PEB as well (the quality of which is also a statement on the competence of his team).
How many people even watch things like Newsnight and QT these days, which used to be essential for building some sort of awareness.
I suspect that their ground game is non-existent here, though, which makes getting out the vote a tough prospect. The SNP and Conservatives have a presence here and have been out campaigning, which is part of the reason I'm still reasonably sure it's between the two of them. But there's ages to go. Anything could happen. When nominations close, there'll at least be clarity about who's on the table. I'm not quite sure which way "Green" VI will break. It won't all go SNP for sure.
Not sure if that is any easier or quicker, there isn't much time, but would presumably also allow them to selectively use it if they wanted.
Genuine exchange from #STVLeadersDebate
Douglas Ross: Are you any different to your predecessors?
John Swinney: I'm John Swinney!