Looks like Ukraine have begun to push the Russians back in Northern Kharkiv. That offensive turning out to be a costly disaster for Russia.
The pointless slaughter for a few metres of ground which is then taken back by a counter attack is very world war one and very depressing to see in modern times.
They destroyed a town of 15,000 or so, and got to shoot dead a bunch of civilians, so there are some metrics of success to report to Putin.
It's possible. It requires the remaining Conservative vote in Clapton to go over to Reform, so it becomes a Labour / Reform marginal. Not a slam dunk in my view and not a situation that is easily replicable elsewhere - the current Reform support isn't big enough for that.
The election where Carswell got in as UKIP is worth looking at -
Party Candidate Votes UKIP Douglas Carswell 19,642 Conservative Giles Watling 16,205 Labour Tim Young 6,364 Green Chris Southall 1,184 Liberal Democrats David Grace 812
Vs last election
Party Candidate Votes Conservative Giles Watling 31,438 Labour Kevin Bonavia 6,736 Liberal Democrats Callum Robertson 2,541 Green Chris Southall 1,225 Independent Andy Morgan 1,099 Independent Colin Bennett 243 Monster Raving Loony Just-John Sexton 224
Carswell was a popular and active local MP.
FWIW I don't think Farage can win Clacton, not does he want to. Five years of being a sole invisible Reform backbencher dealing with the good people of Jaywick's complaints about buses, pensions, library books, bingo nights, ice-cream vans, the snobbishness of Frinton, the cashless society, foreigners, dogs and neighbours. I don't think so.
Firstly, he can employ a caseworker. Secondly, he doesn't really need to bother cultivating a reputation as a diligent constituency MP (like, say, Caroline Lucas in Brighton). He'll either be off in five years, or he'll succeed in doing a reverse takeover of the Tories, in which case the seat's his for life even if he totally ignores all casework (where is Clacton going to go? They aren't going to vote for the Lib Dems on the basis that the MP didn't answer some emails).
Being diligent about casework is a relatively recent and not universal thing. There are some MPs (and more historically) who just aren't at all.
I personally don't think he'll win either, but it's not impossible.
Angie Rayner confirms she has not changed her position on Trident. Snicker. Red Queen on maneuveres
If true one of Starmer Rayner has to resign
Why?
He's hopecasting. Yet again. She doesn't need to resign. She backs Trident. I think in an ideal world she would support multilateral disarmament. But wouldn't we all?
Nonsense - if she rejects Trident renewal against her leader than one of them is in an impossible position
However, it seems from the original report it may be more nuanced
It’s a political act to claim this election is boring. The Tories will try anything to lower turnout or disillusion voters. So we take claims that this boring with a pinch of salt. Doesn’t seem boring to folks that want to kick the buggers out.
Indeed. Remarkable how non-boring lots of my mates are finding it.
It's certainly noticeable that so many of our PB Tories have told us that they've been finding the campaign dull!
What if Con voters remain bored enough to stay at home on election day? Could differential turnout actually boost Labour for a change?
Labour are home and dry and if today's polls are accurate with a huge majority
But today's polls are now irrelevant.
We need to assess the impact that today's announcement. It may take a few days to impact, and a few more to settle down, but the old has just been torn up.
It's possible. It requires the remaining Conservative vote in Clapton to go over to Reform, so it becomes a Labour / Reform marginal. Not a slam dunk in my view and not a situation that is easily replicable elsewhere - the current Reform support isn't big enough for that.
The election where Carswell got in as UKIP is worth looking at -
Party Candidate Votes UKIP Douglas Carswell 19,642 Conservative Giles Watling 16,205 Labour Tim Young 6,364 Green Chris Southall 1,184 Liberal Democrats David Grace 812
Vs last election
Party Candidate Votes Conservative Giles Watling 31,438 Labour Kevin Bonavia 6,736 Liberal Democrats Callum Robertson 2,541 Green Chris Southall 1,225 Independent Andy Morgan 1,099 Independent Colin Bennett 243 Monster Raving Loony Just-John Sexton 224
Carswell was a popular and active local MP.
FWIW I don't think Farage can win Clacton, not does he want to. Five years of being a sole invisible Reform backbencher dealing with the good people of Jaywick's complaints about buses, pensions, library books, bingo nights, ice-cream vans, the snobbishness of Frinton, the cashless society, foreigners, dogs and neighbours. I don't think so.
The secret of Farage's success as a an effective politician is actually because he is perceived to care about these door step issues
Might be worth finding a second source for that rather than relying on the Twitter account of someone who recently posted "Keir Starmer sucks the blood of dead children."...
It's possible. It requires the remaining Conservative vote in Clapton to go over to Reform, so it becomes a Labour / Reform marginal. Not a slam dunk in my view and not a situation that is easily replicable elsewhere - the current Reform support isn't big enough for that.
The election where Carswell got in as UKIP is worth looking at -
Party Candidate Votes UKIP Douglas Carswell 19,642 Conservative Giles Watling 16,205 Labour Tim Young 6,364 Green Chris Southall 1,184 Liberal Democrats David Grace 812
Vs last election
Party Candidate Votes Conservative Giles Watling 31,438 Labour Kevin Bonavia 6,736 Liberal Democrats Callum Robertson 2,541 Green Chris Southall 1,225 Independent Andy Morgan 1,099 Independent Colin Bennett 243 Monster Raving Loony Just-John Sexton 224
Carswell was a popular and active local MP.
The difference this time is Labour is almost certainly going into the Farage switcheroo with a massively higher vote share in Clacton than in those elections. As many of those new Labour supporters will have voted Conservative and UKIP previously they are at risk of going Farage, but I'm doubtful that these will be big numbers.
I went for a stroll with a friend, and we brainstormed some policies the Conservatives could unveil next:
- 3 hours per week in the national curriculum to instil national pride - History lessons to focus on key events: Dunkirk, D-Day, Agincourt - Enforce the wearing of hats, like in the good old days - Make “gay” mean “happy” again - BBC to encourage traditional gender roles (e.g. female presenters to make a cup of tea for the male presenter) - 80% minimum of music played on the radio to be of British origin (excluding London) - Re-name foods: croissant to become flaky crescent, etc.
I think we are all going to be fascinated to see the polls taken with fieldwork after today.
Every other GE where there is someone trying to outflank the Conservatives on the right. The old Euros arent relevant to this and its not as if Reform romped home in the locals recently either. Its possible damage to the Consertvatives but it wont be anything akin to a breakthrough vote figure wherever they stand.
Farage is doing a publicity run, the man couldnt giove a fiddlers for the country or in fact whether it is Clacton or somewhere in Cornwall its pure ego, again. Him and Galloway are two sides of the same coin in that regard.
This morning, I saw some erroneous poll figures giving the Tories 19% and Reform 17%, and out of curiosity I Baxtered them. Gave me seats of 24 and nil respectively.
That is an indication of just how far Reform have to go before they become a significant Parliamentary Party.
The only caveat I would put on that is that if people start to think Reform are a viable vote there may be certain seats which are more vulnerable to them than others. It’s hard for Baxter’s model to adapt to them, because the Brexit Party didn’t stand in a number of constituencies last time.
But FPTP is a cruel mistress and you are right they’d have to get some significant national attention and focus on certain seats to be guaranteed of a good haul. LD/Con/Lab have had the benefit of many elections and proper resourcing to understand seat targeting. Reform don’t have anything like that infrastructure.
Reform’s problem is that there is next to no-one who would vote for them tactically to keep the Tories out.
And even I, as a Never Conservative voter, would vote Tory to keep Reform out. Although thinking about it, in my case that would mean voting for Andrew Bloody Rosindell. As there would be no difference in practice I would sit it out.
I have a vote in the Irish local elections this Friday, and for a long time I'd assumed that I'd vote for the centre-right Fine Gael and Fianna Fail as a vote against various far-right independents.
But now I'm thinking that I'd rather signal my disprovable of them by stopping my preference votes earlier on the ballot.
Another view we might consider. Farage not standing had no discernable polling effect, why would him now saying the opposite....... it assumes there are a cohort out there just waiting for Nigel
I went for a stroll with a friend, and we brainstormed some policies the Conservatives could unveil next:
- 3 hours per week in the national curriculum to instil national pride - History lessons to focus on key events: Dunkirk, D-Day, Agincourt - Enforce the wearing of hats, like in the good old days - Make “gay” mean “happy” again - BBC to encourage traditional gender roles (e.g. female presenters to make a cup of tea for the male presenter) - 80% minimum of music played on the radio to be of British origin (excluding London) - Re-name foods: croissant to become flaky crescent, etc.
Reintroduce the Imperial measuring system for everything....
Angie Rayner confirms she has not changed her position on Trident. Snicker. Red Queen on maneuveres
If true one of Starmer Rayner has to resign
Why?
He's hopecasting. Yet again. She doesn't need to resign. She backs Trident. I think in an ideal world she would support multilateral disarmament. But wouldn't we all?
"Wouldn't we all".
Jesus H Christ no!
Why the hell should we support disarmament that allows a rogue state like Russia to arm themselves and leave us defenceless?
Totally overshadowed by Farage etc and totally dropped off the news cycle, but apparently past few days in Ukraine / Russia war, Russia have taken huge losses in hardware and highest daily casualty for a very long time. Also in the report, apparently ~1000 Russians causalities every day for a total of 500k.
Might be worth finding a second source for that rather than relying on the Twitter account of someone who recently posted "Keir Starmer sucks the blood of dead children."...
Apologies, I didn't realise the account was that dodgy when I posted the link.
Jesus wept! The Deltapoll has VI for 18 to 24 yo of 81% for Labour!!
Natty Serves proving popular....
Nobody in that age group would be impacted by it.
Erm...18 year olds would. It it would compel people by law to complete a community programme over a 12-month period, or enrol in a year-long military training scheme, when they turn 18. That's the whole point.
Just to clarify as someone mentioned Woking. The prediction there is LD 45, Con 24
On the LDs there at 11/8
Theft. You should donate the winnings to charity!
Wish I'd put more on, Peter!
I will be very happy, for the possibly the first time ever, if the LDs clinch Epsom.
@Casino_Royale for what it is worth, as a local, I think your bet on Woking is good. I think it is going very well for the LDs there. I really don't expect them to take Epsom. I know it has been predicted recently, but if it happens I will be gobsmacked. I am obviously hoping to be wrong and you make a killing.
More details off line if you are interested.
That’s my view too. It’s never been fertile territory for the LDs, though perhaps that was the point of Casino’s outside punt.
Locally, the Residents have been dominant for so long the LDs have never been able to get a toehold on the Council to build on. And in any case until recently it has been such a safe Tory area that nobody would bother in a GE either, and most of the Residents local vote goes Tory anyway. Or at least - used to. But it means there is no obvious challenger, even though there is no real reason why it should be very different to Esher and Walton electorally.
And for those reasons, seems like a good outside punt.
I think we are all going to be fascinated to see the polls taken with fieldwork after today.
Every other GE where there is someone trying to outflank the Conservatives on the right. The old Euros arent relevant to this and its not as if Reform romped home in the locals recently either. Its possible damage to the Consertvatives but it wont be anything akin to a breakthrough vote figure wherever they stand.
Farage is doing a publicity run, the man couldnt giove a fiddlers for the country or in fact whether it is Clacton or somewhere in Cornwall its pure ego, again. Him and Galloway are two sides of the same coin in that regard.
This morning, I saw some erroneous poll figures giving the Tories 19% and Reform 17%, and out of curiosity I Baxtered them. Gave me seats of 24 and nil respectively.
That is an indication of just how far Reform have to go before they become a significant Parliamentary Party.
The only caveat I would put on that is that if people start to think Reform are a viable vote there may be certain seats which are more vulnerable to them than others. It’s hard for Baxter’s model to adapt to them, because the Brexit Party didn’t stand in a number of constituencies last time.
But FPTP is a cruel mistress and you are right they’d have to get some significant national attention and focus on certain seats to be guaranteed of a good haul. LD/Con/Lab have had the benefit of many elections and proper resourcing to understand seat targeting. Reform don’t have anything like that infrastructure.
Reform’s problem is that there is next to no-one who would vote for them tactically to keep the Tories out.
And even I, as a Never Conservative voter, would vote Tory to keep Reform out. Although thinking about it, in my case that would mean voting for Andrew Bloody Rosindell. As there would be no difference in practice I would sit it out.
My wife and I will vote conservative to keep Reform out and I expect many others will
They are wholly unacceptable to my politics
Reform don't have a hope in the North Wales seats Big_G - they are all going Labour imo.
It's possible. It requires the remaining Conservative vote in Clapton to go over to Reform, so it becomes a Labour / Reform marginal. Not a slam dunk in my view and not a situation that is easily replicable elsewhere - the current Reform support isn't big enough for that.
The election where Carswell got in as UKIP is worth looking at -
Party Candidate Votes UKIP Douglas Carswell 19,642 Conservative Giles Watling 16,205 Labour Tim Young 6,364 Green Chris Southall 1,184 Liberal Democrats David Grace 812
Vs last election
Party Candidate Votes Conservative Giles Watling 31,438 Labour Kevin Bonavia 6,736 Liberal Democrats Callum Robertson 2,541 Green Chris Southall 1,225 Independent Andy Morgan 1,099 Independent Colin Bennett 243 Monster Raving Loony Just-John Sexton 224
Carswell was a popular and active local MP.
FWIW I don't think Farage can win Clacton, not does he want to. Five years of being a sole invisible Reform backbencher dealing with the good people of Jaywick's complaints about buses, pensions, library books, bingo nights, ice-cream vans, the snobbishness of Frinton, the cashless society, foreigners, dogs and neighbours. I don't think so.
The secret of Farage's success as a an effective politician is actually because he is perceived to care about these door step issues
Angie Rayner confirms she has not changed her position on Trident. Snicker. Red Queen on maneuveres
If true one of Starmer Rayner has to resign
Why?
He's hopecasting. Yet again. She doesn't need to resign. She backs Trident. I think in an ideal world she would support multilateral disarmament. But wouldn't we all?
"Wouldn't we all".
Jesus H Christ no!
Why the hell should we support disarmament that allows a rogue state like Russia to arm themselves and leave us defenceless?
It's possible. It requires the remaining Conservative vote in Clapton to go over to Reform, so it becomes a Labour / Reform marginal. Not a slam dunk in my view and not a situation that is easily replicable elsewhere - the current Reform support isn't big enough for that.
The election where Carswell got in as UKIP is worth looking at -
Party Candidate Votes UKIP Douglas Carswell 19,642 Conservative Giles Watling 16,205 Labour Tim Young 6,364 Green Chris Southall 1,184 Liberal Democrats David Grace 812
Vs last election
Party Candidate Votes Conservative Giles Watling 31,438 Labour Kevin Bonavia 6,736 Liberal Democrats Callum Robertson 2,541 Green Chris Southall 1,225 Independent Andy Morgan 1,099 Independent Colin Bennett 243 Monster Raving Loony Just-John Sexton 224
Carswell was a popular and active local MP.
The difference this time is Labour is almost certainly going into the Farage switcheroo with a massively higher vote share in Clacton than in those elections. As many of those new Labour supporters will have voted Conservative and UKIP previously they are at risk of going Farage, but I'm doubtful that these will be big numbers.
A constituency poll will be incoming, given Farage.
But consider - if Labour *double* their vote, they are on 13k.
I would bet against Farage doing better than Carswell. Farage appears to have absolutely no idea how to run an election campaign or team, nor does he work with people who do. Which is why he has had so little impact before.
This is in contrast to Galloway who is an expert at elections. Hence his record.
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
Yeah, no, just look at France, Italy, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Hungary and probably the USA. And maybe even Germany. And multiple other western nations
Britain is BEHIND the curve. Is all. The backlash against multiculturalism and mass migration is real and it is happening everywhere
Nah
You’re living in your echo chamber. It’s nonsense.
I’ve watched the LePens for 20 years flattering to deceive and likewise the MAGA nutters.
It’s always the same. You wank away vigorously but all that’s left is spilled semen.
The difference is that Le Pen has now totally eclipsed Les Republicains, and other rival right wing parties. French voters no longer use the two-round voting system to keep out her candidates.
Indeed Mme Le Pen is now so establishment she is in danger of being outflanked on her right
My guess - right now, early doors - is that she will finally win the next POTFR elex
You said that last time.
i don’t believe I did. In fact I am sure i didn’t
But we all misremember. I remember quoting some supposed expert who CLAIMED she was gonna win, but that is different
This time I will be come out and say it, as things stand (a long long way to go) she will win. But, evenements, dear garçon, evenements
Like you told us the marvellous Liz Truss was the diamond in the rough, the real deal, who would defeat Starmer you mean?
There are many brilliant forecasters on here. Some of whom I politically disagree with strongly but I admire and respect them as punters. Look at @Casino_Royale with the Epsom 14/1 as one example of many brilliant tipsters on this site.
But honestly Leon, and in the friendliest way, you’re not one of them.
It's possible. It requires the remaining Conservative vote in Clapton to go over to Reform, so it becomes a Labour / Reform marginal. Not a slam dunk in my view and not a situation that is easily replicable elsewhere - the current Reform support isn't big enough for that.
The election where Carswell got in as UKIP is worth looking at -
Party Candidate Votes UKIP Douglas Carswell 19,642 Conservative Giles Watling 16,205 Labour Tim Young 6,364 Green Chris Southall 1,184 Liberal Democrats David Grace 812
Vs last election
Party Candidate Votes Conservative Giles Watling 31,438 Labour Kevin Bonavia 6,736 Liberal Democrats Callum Robertson 2,541 Green Chris Southall 1,225 Independent Andy Morgan 1,099 Independent Colin Bennett 243 Monster Raving Loony Just-John Sexton 224
Carswell was a popular and active local MP.
FWIW I don't think Farage can win Clacton, not does he want to. Five years of being a sole invisible Reform backbencher dealing with the good people of Jaywick's complaints about buses, pensions, library books, bingo nights, ice-cream vans, the snobbishness of Frinton, the cashless society, foreigners, dogs and neighbours. I don't think so.
The secret of Farage's success as a an effective politician is actually because he is perceived to care about these door step issues
Key word being 'perceived'.
To be fair I think he probably does care about them. You need to differentiate between whether he believes in this stuff and whether what he believes in is good or bad.
It is entirely possible for him to deeply care about something which we perceive as bad.
Angie Rayner confirms she has not changed her position on Trident. Snicker. Red Queen on maneuveres
If true one of Starmer Rayner has to resign
Why?
He's hopecasting. Yet again. She doesn't need to resign. She backs Trident. I think in an ideal world she would support multilateral disarmament. But wouldn't we all?
"Wouldn't we all".
Jesus H Christ no!
Why the hell should we support disarmament that allows a rogue state like Russia to arm themselves and leave us defenceless?
What a suicidally stupid idea.
The clue is in the term multilateral.
The clue is in the term rogue.
So Russia claims it will disarm, we actually do, they don't. Or they surreptitiously re-arm. Now what?
Who the hell is bloody stupid enough to trust the Russians or Chinese on anything so important?
I looked at the overall record in Sunak Vs Starmer by elections and compared to Major Vs Blair:
So, Major and Blair fought 8 by-elections, including a Scottish one (Perth & Kinross), a LD victory (Littleborough & Saddleworth, with Labour competitive), some solid Labour seats (Inc Islwyn, Barnsley East, both where Blair's Labour actually lost vote share, plus some big boom Tory defeats.
A decent mixed bag.
Average Tory to Labour swing was around 14%, but interestingly average polling ahead of each of the contests suggested a 17.5% swing, so over reported the Labour lead by around 7%.
That was pretty much the polling miss ahead of election day.
Moving forward to Starmer, the 13 by-elections fought included Somertin, Rutherglen & Hamilton West, Rochdale and 3 other Labour defences, Uxbridge, plus the spectaculars. Again, a lot of bases covered.
Average Tory to Labour swing was 15.0%. Polling ahead of the BEs predicted a 16.2% swing, so again polling gives a higher Labour lead than the elections did, but this time only 2.5%.
How good might this be? They reckon you get the final swing to within 1% from the first 20 results on GE night. Given these trend urban and North-Eastern, they are not a representative sample but still give a decent indication.
But, I reckon those samples are decent and it is important to take Labour's disasters with their triumphs. Rochdale, Uxbridge, Somerton all represent different types of seats the overall GE swing will be hewn from, and all represent valid demographic inputs, so provide an essential counterbalance to the big triumphs. If by-elections provide an exaggerated lens that can distort in different directions at times.
So, it wouldn't amaze me if Labour perform a little, but not that much, below their polling.
As, I say back of the envelope at the moment. I'm not ready to publish the paper.
Numbers: Con: 25.7 (-21.3 - on these constituencies in 2019) Lab 44.6 (+8.8) LD 8.9 (+1.1) RefUK ended with 5.8% bolstered by around 11% in the BEs fought in 2024.
I think we are all going to be fascinated to see the polls taken with fieldwork after today.
Every other GE where there is someone trying to outflank the Conservatives on the right. The old Euros arent relevant to this and its not as if Reform romped home in the locals recently either. Its possible damage to the Consertvatives but it wont be anything akin to a breakthrough vote figure wherever they stand.
Farage is doing a publicity run, the man couldnt giove a fiddlers for the country or in fact whether it is Clacton or somewhere in Cornwall its pure ego, again. Him and Galloway are two sides of the same coin in that regard.
This morning, I saw some erroneous poll figures giving the Tories 19% and Reform 17%, and out of curiosity I Baxtered them. Gave me seats of 24 and nil respectively.
That is an indication of just how far Reform have to go before they become a significant Parliamentary Party.
The only caveat I would put on that is that if people start to think Reform are a viable vote there may be certain seats which are more vulnerable to them than others. It’s hard for Baxter’s model to adapt to them, because the Brexit Party didn’t stand in a number of constituencies last time.
But FPTP is a cruel mistress and you are right they’d have to get some significant national attention and focus on certain seats to be guaranteed of a good haul. LD/Con/Lab have had the benefit of many elections and proper resourcing to understand seat targeting. Reform don’t have anything like that infrastructure.
Reform’s problem is that there is next to no-one who would vote for them tactically to keep the Tories out.
And even I, as a Never Conservative voter, would vote Tory to keep Reform out. Although thinking about it, in my case that would mean voting for Andrew Bloody Rosindell. As there would be no difference in practice I would sit it out.
My wife and I will vote conservative to keep Reform out and I expect many others will
They are wholly unacceptable to my politics
Reform don't have a hope in the North Wales seats Big_G - they are all going Labour imo.
They are but the more votes the conservative gains over Reform the better
Jesus wept! The Deltapoll has VI for 18 to 24 yo of 81% for Labour!!
Natty Serves proving popular....
Nobody in that age group would be impacted by it.
Erm...18 year olds would. It it would compel people by law to complete a community programme over a 12-month period, or enrol in a year-long military training scheme, when they turn 18. That's the whole point.
By the time it's enacted they'll not be eligible. And it won't apply in anycase to anyone who has already turned 18, but to a future set 'born after' date. So, no, it won't apply to any of them any more than votes for 16 and 17 'appeals' to the youth vote
Jesus wept! The Deltapoll has VI for 18 to 24 yo of 81% for Labour!!
Natty Serves proving popular....
Nobody in that age group would be impacted by it.
Erm...18 year olds would. It it would compel people by law to complete a community programme over a 12-month period, or enrol in a year-long military training scheme, when they turn 18. That's the whole point.
They would all be older than 19 by the time the policy came in. However, that hasn't stopped them spotting a truly shite idea when see one.
Yes, I think No.10 can be blamed for many things, but that's just sheer stupity as well as arrogance to assume no agency on Farage's part, and that it is by the whim of the Tory leader that there was a deal here.
It seems to be the kind of attitude some Tories have that Farage and Reform are just errant Tories, who whatever they say and do are actually controllable as part of some general Tory family or something. The same way some people assume the LDs or Greens should just do whatever Labour would like in order to beat the Tories, when they are their own entities and Labour are also their opponents, even if interests will align to some degree.
Jesus wept! The Deltapoll has VI for 18 to 24 yo of 81% for Labour!!
Natty Serves proving popular....
Nobody in that age group would be impacted by it.
Erm...18 year olds would. It it would compel people by law to complete a community programme over a 12-month period, or enrol in a year-long military training scheme, when they turn 18. That's the whole point.
They would all be older than 19 by the time the policy came in. However, that hasn't stopped them spotting a truly shite idea when see one.
Indeed any opposition will be generic it's shit opposition than 'I might be drafted' opposition
Angie Rayner confirms she has not changed her position on Trident. Snicker. Red Queen on maneuveres
If true one of Starmer Rayner has to resign
Why?
He's hopecasting. Yet again. She doesn't need to resign. She backs Trident. I think in an ideal world she would support multilateral disarmament. But wouldn't we all?
"Wouldn't we all".
Jesus H Christ no!
Why the hell should we support disarmament that allows a rogue state like Russia to arm themselves and leave us defenceless?
What a suicidally stupid idea.
The clue is in the term multilateral.
The clue is in the term rogue.
So Russia claims it will disarm, we actually do, they don't. Or they surreptitiously re-arm. Now what?
Who the hell is bloody stupid enough to trust the Russians or Chinese on anything so important?
Multilateral disarmament died when nothing was done about the “coach and horses” violation of the Biological Weapons Treaty by the USSR.
The first may be true, though I think the question of whether waiting that long would have been a good move remains hard to be sure of one way or another.
The second is definitely true. Has any figure ever been so admired and beloved by people he has openly sought to oppose for decades? You'd think Farage was a beloved Tory grandee the way some act towards him.
Pippa Crerar really should know better than to tweet half a story . Rayners full statement is much more nuanced and hardly s shock . Most people would like to see less nuclear weapons but that needs to be done multilaterally .
And given there are so many bad actors out there it’s not going to happen for a very long time .
It's possible. It requires the remaining Conservative vote in Clapton to go over to Reform, so it becomes a Labour / Reform marginal. Not a slam dunk in my view and not a situation that is easily replicable elsewhere - the current Reform support isn't big enough for that.
The election where Carswell got in as UKIP is worth looking at -
Party Candidate Votes UKIP Douglas Carswell 19,642 Conservative Giles Watling 16,205 Labour Tim Young 6,364 Green Chris Southall 1,184 Liberal Democrats David Grace 812
Vs last election
Party Candidate Votes Conservative Giles Watling 31,438 Labour Kevin Bonavia 6,736 Liberal Democrats Callum Robertson 2,541 Green Chris Southall 1,225 Independent Andy Morgan 1,099 Independent Colin Bennett 243 Monster Raving Loony Just-John Sexton 224
Carswell was a popular and active local MP.
FWIW I don't think Farage can win Clacton, not does he want to. Five years of being a sole invisible Reform backbencher dealing with the good people of Jaywick's complaints about buses, pensions, library books, bingo nights, ice-cream vans, the snobbishness of Frinton, the cashless society, foreigners, dogs and neighbours. I don't think so.
The secret of Farage's success as a an effective politician is actually because he is perceived to care about these door step issues
It's possible. It requires the remaining Conservative vote in Clapton to go over to Reform, so it becomes a Labour / Reform marginal. Not a slam dunk in my view and not a situation that is easily replicable elsewhere - the current Reform support isn't big enough for that.
The election where Carswell got in as UKIP is worth looking at -
Party Candidate Votes UKIP Douglas Carswell 19,642 Conservative Giles Watling 16,205 Labour Tim Young 6,364 Green Chris Southall 1,184 Liberal Democrats David Grace 812
Vs last election
Party Candidate Votes Conservative Giles Watling 31,438 Labour Kevin Bonavia 6,736 Liberal Democrats Callum Robertson 2,541 Green Chris Southall 1,225 Independent Andy Morgan 1,099 Independent Colin Bennett 243 Monster Raving Loony Just-John Sexton 224
Carswell was a popular and active local MP.
FWIW I don't think Farage can win Clacton, not does he want to. Five years of being a sole invisible Reform backbencher dealing with the good people of Jaywick's complaints about buses, pensions, library books, bingo nights, ice-cream vans, the snobbishness of Frinton, the cashless society, foreigners, dogs and neighbours. I don't think so.
The secret of Farage's success as a an effective politician is actually because he is perceived to care about these door step issues
Key word being 'perceived'.
To be fair I think he probably does care about them. You need to differentiate between whether he believes in this stuff and whether what he believes in is good or bad.
It is entirely possible for him to deeply care about something which we perceive as bad.
I disagree, I see him as a sharper and nastier version of Johnson. The only thing he cares about is what's best for himself. Ultimate grifter. It's a shame so many people fall for it. But that's his skill, I guess, and why he is probably the most influential politician of my generation, and why I am an IT Project Manager not a politician.
Angie Rayner confirms she has not changed her position on Trident. Snicker. Red Queen on maneuveres
If true one of Starmer Rayner has to resign
Why?
He's hopecasting. Yet again. She doesn't need to resign. She backs Trident. I think in an ideal world she would support multilateral disarmament. But wouldn't we all?
"Wouldn't we all".
Jesus H Christ no!
Why the hell should we support disarmament that allows a rogue state like Russia to arm themselves and leave us defenceless?
What a suicidally stupid idea.
The clue is in the term multilateral.
The clue is in the term rogue.
So Russia claims it will disarm, we actually do, they don't. Or they surreptitiously re-arm. Now what?
Who the hell is bloody stupid enough to trust the Russians or Chinese on anything so important?
Multilateral disarmament died when nothing was done about the “coach and horses” violation of the Biological Weapons Treaty by the USSR.
Multilateral disarmament was never a serious idea.
Its game theory.
If everyone else disarms and you don't, then you can defeat everyone else. If you disarm and others don't, then you can be defeated.
So there is no rational reason to disarm. Especially for rogue states that don't give a shit about what you think about that. And we need to be ready to defend ourselves from those rogue states.
It’s a political act to claim this election is boring. The Tories will try anything to lower turnout or disillusion voters. So we take claims that this boring with a pinch of salt. Doesn’t seem boring to folks that want to kick the buggers out.
Indeed. Remarkable how non-boring lots of my mates are finding it.
It's certainly noticeable that so many of our PB Tories have told us that they've been finding the campaign dull!
What if Con voters remain bored enough to stay at home on election day? Could differential turnout actually boost Labour for a change?
Labour are home and dry and if today's polls are accurate with a huge majority
But today's polls are now irrelevant.
We need to assess the impact that today's announcement. It may take a few days to impact, and a few more to settle down, but the old has just been torn up.
We've had some predictions of possible impacts already on this thread:
1. The Tories might damage themselves further over the question of whether to do a deal with UKIP, and what terms might be acceptable.
2. A 'Faragasm' might suck votes from both Con and Lab in parts of the red wall.
3. The Lib Dems in the blue wall / home counties might be boosted, hitting Con hardest but also limiting Lab to a 1997-style majority rather than anything bigger.
What else do PBers think might change as a result of today?
Edited to add: Er, do a deal with Farage, not UKIP!
It's possible. It requires the remaining Conservative vote in Clapton to go over to Reform, so it becomes a Labour / Reform marginal. Not a slam dunk in my view and not a situation that is easily replicable elsewhere - the current Reform support isn't big enough for that.
The election where Carswell got in as UKIP is worth looking at -
Party Candidate Votes UKIP Douglas Carswell 19,642 Conservative Giles Watling 16,205 Labour Tim Young 6,364 Green Chris Southall 1,184 Liberal Democrats David Grace 812
Vs last election
Party Candidate Votes Conservative Giles Watling 31,438 Labour Kevin Bonavia 6,736 Liberal Democrats Callum Robertson 2,541 Green Chris Southall 1,225 Independent Andy Morgan 1,099 Independent Colin Bennett 243 Monster Raving Loony Just-John Sexton 224
Carswell was a popular and active local MP.
FWIW I don't think Farage can win Clacton, not does he want to. Five years of being a sole invisible Reform backbencher dealing with the good people of Jaywick's complaints about buses, pensions, library books, bingo nights, ice-cream vans, the snobbishness of Frinton, the cashless society, foreigners, dogs and neighbours. I don't think so.
The secret of Farage's success as a an effective politician is actually because he is perceived to care about these door step issues
It's possible. It requires the remaining Conservative vote in Clapton to go over to Reform, so it becomes a Labour / Reform marginal. Not a slam dunk in my view and not a situation that is easily replicable elsewhere - the current Reform support isn't big enough for that.
The election where Carswell got in as UKIP is worth looking at -
Party Candidate Votes UKIP Douglas Carswell 19,642 Conservative Giles Watling 16,205 Labour Tim Young 6,364 Green Chris Southall 1,184 Liberal Democrats David Grace 812
Vs last election
Party Candidate Votes Conservative Giles Watling 31,438 Labour Kevin Bonavia 6,736 Liberal Democrats Callum Robertson 2,541 Green Chris Southall 1,225 Independent Andy Morgan 1,099 Independent Colin Bennett 243 Monster Raving Loony Just-John Sexton 224
Carswell was a popular and active local MP.
FWIW I don't think Farage can win Clacton, not does he want to. Five years of being a sole invisible Reform backbencher dealing with the good people of Jaywick's complaints about buses, pensions, library books, bingo nights, ice-cream vans, the snobbishness of Frinton, the cashless society, foreigners, dogs and neighbours. I don't think so.
The secret of Farage's success as a an effective politician is actually because he is perceived to care about these door step issues
Key word being 'perceived'.
To be fair I think he probably does care about them. You need to differentiate between whether he believes in this stuff and whether what he believes in is good or bad.
It is entirely possible for him to deeply care about something which we perceive as bad.
I disagree, I see him as a sharper and nastier version of Johnson. The only thing he cares about is what's best for himself. Ultimate grifter. It's a shame so many people fall for it. But that's his skill, I guess, and why he is probably the most influential politician of my generation, and why I am an IT Project Manager not a politician.
It is interesting to compare how easily he bats away the media attack questions compared to Sunak who looks like he might be revealing himself when he gets a pointed question.
Pippa Crerar really should know better than to tweet half a story . Rayners full statement is much more nuanced and hardly s shock . Most people would like to see less nuclear weapons but that needs to be done multilaterally .
And given there are so many bad actors out there it’s not going to happen for a very long time .
As mentioned above I am trying to determine the best value trading bets if there is a surge of bets on reform between now and after Friday’s Farage TV appearance in the debate.
High odds bets on Reform to get 7+ seats and to win ‘most seats without Labour’ - and then to trade out of these positions on Saturday.
Does anyone have similar proxy markets which might serve the above well?
Laying Reform 0 seats is another - sadly, I only did a small stake earlier when it was available for 1.67. Now around 3.5. Still something there I think.
Caveat to all the above is I will trade out of these positions within the week - I think they are unlikely to land, I am just counting on a big Reform surge on the markets, helped by less regular punters. I will only hold them if something earth shattering happens like mass defections to Reform.
Jesus wept! The Deltapoll has VI for 18 to 24 yo of 81% for Labour!!
Natty Serves proving popular....
Nobody in that age group would be impacted by it.
Speak to them about it though. They hate the idea. They don't like being told that their degrees are "Mickey Mouse" either.
I've seen the polling on it. The Deltapoll 18 to 24 VI bears no resemblance to any of the policy polling. I propose they are totally unrelated in any way and its a (very amusing nonetheless) sampling anomaly.
As mentioned above I am trying to determine the best value trading bets if there is a surge of bets on reform between now and after Friday’s Farage TV appearance in the debate.
High odds bets on Reform to get 7+ seats and to win ‘most seats without Labour’ - and then to trade out of these positions on Saturday.
Does anyone have similar proxy markets which might serve the above well?
Laying Reform 0 seats is another - sadly, I only did a small stake earlier when it was available for 1.67. Now around 3.5. Still something there I think.
Caveat to all the above is I will trade out of these positions within the week, unless something earth shattering happens like mass defections to Reform.
Lay Reform getting seats.
Lay Reform getting votes.
Basically lay Reform. Incompetent racists don't do well at General Elections in the UK.
Lay the people piling on backing Farage-mania today who are throwing their money away on a serial loser.
Jesus wept! The Deltapoll has VI for 18 to 24 yo of 81% for Labour!!
Natty Serves proving popular....
Where has this 'natty serves' thing come from? It's an awful construction. Sends my teeth on edge.
It’s a deliberate piss take. It’s meant to set your teeth on edge. The name should reflect the idiocy of the proposal.
That's like being deliberately annoying - it might succeed in it's aim, but at the end of the day it's still just annoying.
It just demonstrates the infantile level of debate in this many other areas.
The way the public debate goes in the media is pick the two extreme ends of where a policy can be taken and then spend a day creating a day of heat over these positions.
It’s a political act to claim this election is boring. The Tories will try anything to lower turnout or disillusion voters. So we take claims that this boring with a pinch of salt. Doesn’t seem boring to folks that want to kick the buggers out.
Indeed. Remarkable how non-boring lots of my mates are finding it.
It's certainly noticeable that so many of our PB Tories have told us that they've been finding the campaign dull!
What if Con voters remain bored enough to stay at home on election day? Could differential turnout actually boost Labour for a change?
Labour are home and dry and if today's polls are accurate with a huge majority
But today's polls are now irrelevant.
We need to assess the impact that today's announcement. It may take a few days to impact, and a few more to settle down, but the old has just been torn up.
We've had some predictions of possible impacts already on this thread:
1. The Tories might damage themselves further over the question of whether to do a deal with UKIP, and what terms might be acceptable.
2. A 'Faragasm' might suck votes from both Con and Lab in parts of the red wall.
3. The Lib Dems in the blue wall / home counties might be boosted, hitting Con hardest but also limiting Lab to a 1997-style majority rather than anything bigger.
What else do PBers think might change as a result of today?
Edited to add: Er, do a deal with Farage, not UKIP!
It won't improve my proofreading, that's for sure. Sorry about that.
Turnout will increase. Over 65% looks a good bet now.
It's possible. It requires the remaining Conservative vote in Clapton to go over to Reform, so it becomes a Labour / Reform marginal. Not a slam dunk in my view and not a situation that is easily replicable elsewhere - the current Reform support isn't big enough for that.
The election where Carswell got in as UKIP is worth looking at -
Party Candidate Votes UKIP Douglas Carswell 19,642 Conservative Giles Watling 16,205 Labour Tim Young 6,364 Green Chris Southall 1,184 Liberal Democrats David Grace 812
Vs last election
Party Candidate Votes Conservative Giles Watling 31,438 Labour Kevin Bonavia 6,736 Liberal Democrats Callum Robertson 2,541 Green Chris Southall 1,225 Independent Andy Morgan 1,099 Independent Colin Bennett 243 Monster Raving Loony Just-John Sexton 224
Carswell was a popular and active local MP.
FWIW I don't think Farage can win Clacton, not does he want to. Five years of being a sole invisible Reform backbencher dealing with the good people of Jaywick's complaints about buses, pensions, library books, bingo nights, ice-cream vans, the snobbishness of Frinton, the cashless society, foreigners, dogs and neighbours. I don't think so.
The secret of Farage's success as a an effective politician is actually because he is perceived to care about these door step issues
It's possible. It requires the remaining Conservative vote in Clapton to go over to Reform, so it becomes a Labour / Reform marginal. Not a slam dunk in my view and not a situation that is easily replicable elsewhere - the current Reform support isn't big enough for that.
The election where Carswell got in as UKIP is worth looking at -
Party Candidate Votes UKIP Douglas Carswell 19,642 Conservative Giles Watling 16,205 Labour Tim Young 6,364 Green Chris Southall 1,184 Liberal Democrats David Grace 812
Vs last election
Party Candidate Votes Conservative Giles Watling 31,438 Labour Kevin Bonavia 6,736 Liberal Democrats Callum Robertson 2,541 Green Chris Southall 1,225 Independent Andy Morgan 1,099 Independent Colin Bennett 243 Monster Raving Loony Just-John Sexton 224
Carswell was a popular and active local MP.
FWIW I don't think Farage can win Clacton, not does he want to. Five years of being a sole invisible Reform backbencher dealing with the good people of Jaywick's complaints about buses, pensions, library books, bingo nights, ice-cream vans, the snobbishness of Frinton, the cashless society, foreigners, dogs and neighbours. I don't think so.
The secret of Farage's success as a an effective politician is actually because he is perceived to care about these door step issues
Key word being 'perceived'.
To be fair I think he probably does care about them. You need to differentiate between whether he believes in this stuff and whether what he believes in is good or bad.
It is entirely possible for him to deeply care about something which we perceive as bad.
I disagree, I see him as a sharper and nastier version of Johnson. The only thing he cares about is what's best for himself. Ultimate grifter. It's a shame so many people fall for it. But that's his skill, I guess, and why he is probably the most influential politician of my generation, and why I am an IT Project Manager not a politician.
It is interesting to compare how easily he bats away the media attack questions compared to Sunak who looks like he might be revealing himself when he gets a pointed question.
Some people no matter how polished or practiced just cannot pull off that kind of confident performance no matter the circumstances. Farage has always been marmite, but he has appropriate charisma for media.
It's possible. It requires the remaining Conservative vote in Clapton to go over to Reform, so it becomes a Labour / Reform marginal. Not a slam dunk in my view and not a situation that is easily replicable elsewhere - the current Reform support isn't big enough for that.
The election where Carswell got in as UKIP is worth looking at -
Party Candidate Votes UKIP Douglas Carswell 19,642 Conservative Giles Watling 16,205 Labour Tim Young 6,364 Green Chris Southall 1,184 Liberal Democrats David Grace 812
Vs last election
Party Candidate Votes Conservative Giles Watling 31,438 Labour Kevin Bonavia 6,736 Liberal Democrats Callum Robertson 2,541 Green Chris Southall 1,225 Independent Andy Morgan 1,099 Independent Colin Bennett 243 Monster Raving Loony Just-John Sexton 224
Carswell was a popular and active local MP.
FWIW I don't think Farage can win Clacton, not does he want to. Five years of being a sole invisible Reform backbencher dealing with the good people of Jaywick's complaints about buses, pensions, library books, bingo nights, ice-cream vans, the snobbishness of Frinton, the cashless society, foreigners, dogs and neighbours. I don't think so.
The secret of Farage's success as a an effective politician is actually because he is perceived to care about these door step issues
No, the secret of his success is moaning about the modern world to a bunch of other pub bores, and never having run even a whelk stall. It's easy being a critic, hard actually doing anything.
Difficult to know the challenger in St.Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire
Con 34% LD 27% Lab 26%
The Libdems have a Portillo Pot. Whilst polling companies crunch spreadsheets, I reckon they are completely missing what Labour and Lib Dem’s are actually doing. And that Swings likely larger where effort is targeted, not something I think the MRPs account for. There’s sure to be maximum tactical voting where there is smell of the blood of a big Tory beast, eg Mogg, Mourdant, Hunt that the way polling is done just won’t pick up.
There has definitely been secret deals between Labour and Lib Dem’s. Definitely. We are all sure of it. So many target seats have cosy local deals of you go easy here, we will go easy there next door. You can actually see it happening like that on the ground this far into a campaign, and from here it will only come more flipping obvious. That, and some seat polling will give tactical voters a very good steer by end of June making these MRP look way out.
If you're helping the Tories could you ask them what their last PPB was all about. I thought it was for labour. Are they doing it in-house?
Jesus wept! The Deltapoll has VI for 18 to 24 yo of 81% for Labour!!
Natty Serves proving popular....
Nobody in that age group would be impacted by it.
Speak to them about it though. They hate the idea. They don't like being told that their degrees are "Mickey Mouse" either.
If you are in that age group it must be very easy to empathise with the ones below you - say 16 year olds - who will be impacted. Indeed, for many of them they will be thinking about their own young siblings.
But anyway it just shows a general attitude of fuck the young in order to appease the 70+ year olds who claim to remember the 1950s as paradise lost.
Football on TNT Sports @footballontnt For the first time since 1994, England have named a starting XI without a player from Arsenal, Man United, Man City or Spurs
I went for a stroll with a friend, and we brainstormed some policies the Conservatives could unveil next:
- 3 hours per week in the national curriculum to instil national pride - History lessons to focus on key events: Dunkirk, D-Day, Agincourt - Enforce the wearing of hats, like in the good old days - Make “gay” mean “happy” again - BBC to encourage traditional gender roles (e.g. female presenters to make a cup of tea for the male presenter) - 80% minimum of music played on the radio to be of British origin (excluding London) - Re-name foods: croissant to become flaky crescent, etc.
National service to include gender monitors for changing rooms and lavs would work I think. Well, work in the sense of taking Team Tory’s increasingly demented fancy.
Jesus wept! The Deltapoll has VI for 18 to 24 yo of 81% for Labour!!
Natty Serves proving popular....
Nobody in that age group would be impacted by it.
But they know better than anyone how they would feel about it happening now, and so despise the idea of it happening to people of their age in future.
Nonsense. It's an artefact of where they are generally on the 'progressive' political scale and nothing to do with 'youth solidarity'
I don't say that the rating is a one to one correlation with the national service policy. But it is patently absurd to suggest there's no impact of the policy in encouraging and reinforcing the poll rating because they 'won't be impacted by it'.
Most people are not impacted by most policies, they can still react to it, and the idea young people in particular would not react as a result of a policy designed to impact their cohort, even if not specifically them right this instance, is simply absurd.
So the next desperate attempt to salvage the Tory campaign is to start droning on about the ECHR and even more ridiculous think of offering a referendum on leaving it .
Are the Tories really this thick . The public do not want another divisive referendum !
A different theory, and just a hypothesis. What if the Tories are already basically at their floor and have haemorrhaged as many votes to Reform as they will unless or until the average right winger perceives them to have crossed over.
That being the case, what if Farage starts to mostly drain Labour support? I can just about imagine 38/30, or even a bit closer, happening if the Tories perform at the high end of their polling and sneak some votes back via the debates.
Comments
Being diligent about casework is a relatively recent and not universal thing. There are some MPs (and more historically) who just aren't at all.
I personally don't think he'll win either, but it's not impossible.
We need to assess the impact that today's announcement. It may take a few days to impact, and a few more to settle down, but the old has just been torn up.
Ben Riley-Smith
@benrileysmith
·
1h
Tory fury being directed at No10 over Farage return
MP1: "I can’t express how angry I am on behalf of the members and MPs they have thrown to the wolves by their incompetence"
MP2: "We should have done a deal"
Tory rebel: "Their arrogance has cost them"
https://x.com/benrileysmith/status/1797666900593500596
Subs: Gomez, Ramsdale, Branthwaite, Quansah, Rice, Toney, Grealish, Maddison, Kane, Jones, Henderson, Wharton, Trafford
Is Foden injured?
- 3 hours per week in the national curriculum to instil national pride
- History lessons to focus on key events: Dunkirk, D-Day, Agincourt
- Enforce the wearing of hats, like in the good old days
- Make “gay” mean “happy” again
- BBC to encourage traditional gender roles (e.g. female presenters to make a cup of tea for the male presenter)
- 80% minimum of music played on the radio to be of British origin (excluding London)
- Re-name foods: croissant to become flaky crescent, etc.
But now I'm thinking that I'd rather signal my disprovable of them by stopping my preference votes earlier on the ballot.
Jesus H Christ no!
Why the hell should we support disarmament that allows a rogue state like Russia to arm themselves and leave us defenceless?
What a suicidally stupid idea.
Well done to rational GOPers in Congress for teaming up with Democrats to defeat Trumps and MTG etc and allow arms to flow once more.
Remarkable how arms flowing again results in Russian casualties again.
Mods: please delete if possible.
And for those reasons, seems like a good outside punt.
https://x.com/richardjmurphy/status/1797658134212927740?s=61
Where did all its supporters go?
Exclusive: Rishi Sunak’s aides are considering hardening the Tory party’s position on the ECHR, as Nigel Farage plunged their campaign into crisis
— senior party aides have sounded out moderate ministers on whether they could back a tougher stance
— some Tory aides want to commit to working with European nations to reform the ECHR if Rwanda is blocked, or failing that, leave it
— some Tories want a referendum
— sources stress nothing is finalised, but they say movement is possible
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1797692913302012245
But consider - if Labour *double* their vote, they are on 13k.
I would bet against Farage doing better than Carswell. Farage appears to have absolutely no idea how to run an election campaign or team, nor does he work with people who do. Which is why he has had so little impact before.
This is in contrast to Galloway who is an expert at elections. Hence his record.
@GavinBarwell
·
24m
Two reactions to this:
1. If Sunak had waited until the autumn, Farage would have been in the US fawning over Trump. Big mistake
2. All those Conservative MPs who pretended Farage was their mate: how stupid do you look now? He is trying to destroy you
https://x.com/GavinBarwell/status/1797687349452943741
There are many brilliant forecasters on here. Some of whom I politically disagree with strongly but I admire and respect them as punters. Look at @Casino_Royale with the Epsom 14/1 as one example of many brilliant tipsters on this site.
But honestly Leon, and in the friendliest way, you’re not one of them.
It is entirely possible for him to deeply care about something which we perceive as bad.
So Russia claims it will disarm, we actually do, they don't. Or they surreptitiously re-arm. Now what?
Who the hell is bloody stupid enough to trust the Russians or Chinese on anything so important?
I looked at the overall record in Sunak Vs Starmer by elections and compared to Major Vs Blair:
So, Major and Blair fought 8 by-elections, including a Scottish one (Perth & Kinross), a LD victory (Littleborough & Saddleworth, with Labour competitive), some solid Labour seats (Inc Islwyn, Barnsley East, both where Blair's Labour actually lost vote share, plus some big boom Tory defeats.
A decent mixed bag.
Average Tory to Labour swing was around 14%, but interestingly average polling ahead of each of the contests suggested a 17.5% swing, so over reported the Labour lead by around 7%.
That was pretty much the polling miss ahead of election day.
Moving forward to Starmer, the 13 by-elections fought included Somertin, Rutherglen & Hamilton West, Rochdale and 3 other Labour defences, Uxbridge, plus the spectaculars. Again, a lot of bases covered.
Average Tory to Labour swing was 15.0%. Polling ahead of the BEs predicted a 16.2% swing, so again polling gives a higher Labour lead than the elections did, but this time only 2.5%.
How good might this be? They reckon you get the final swing to within 1% from the first 20 results on GE night. Given these trend urban and North-Eastern, they are not a representative sample but still give a decent indication.
But, I reckon those samples are decent and it is important to take Labour's disasters with their triumphs. Rochdale, Uxbridge, Somerton all represent different types of seats the overall GE swing will be hewn from, and all represent valid demographic inputs, so provide an essential counterbalance to the big triumphs. If by-elections provide an exaggerated lens that can distort in different directions at times.
So, it wouldn't amaze me if Labour perform a little, but not that much, below their polling.
As, I say back of the envelope at the moment. I'm not ready to publish the paper.
Numbers:
Con: 25.7 (-21.3 - on these constituencies in 2019)
Lab 44.6 (+8.8)
LD 8.9 (+1.1)
RefUK ended with 5.8% bolstered by around 11% in the BEs fought in 2024.
It seems to be the kind of attitude some Tories have that Farage and Reform are just errant Tories, who whatever they say and do are actually controllable as part of some general Tory family or something. The same way some people assume the LDs or Greens should just do whatever Labour would like in order to beat the Tories, when they are their own entities and Labour are also their opponents, even if interests will align to some degree.
May not come off. But what odds.
The second is definitely true. Has any figure ever been so admired and beloved by people he has openly sought to oppose for decades? You'd think Farage was a beloved Tory grandee the way some act towards him.
Oh, the irony.
If the Tories try and suck up to Faragists, they deserve to be annihilated.
And given there are so many bad actors out there it’s not going to happen for a very long time .
Its game theory.
If everyone else disarms and you don't, then you can defeat everyone else.
If you disarm and others don't, then you can be defeated.
So there is no rational reason to disarm. Especially for rogue states that don't give a shit about what you think about that. And we need to be ready to defend ourselves from those rogue states.
1. The Tories might damage themselves further over the question of whether to do a deal with UKIP, and what terms might be acceptable.
2. A 'Faragasm' might suck votes from both Con and Lab in parts of the red wall.
3. The Lib Dems in the blue wall / home counties might be boosted, hitting Con hardest but also limiting Lab to a 1997-style majority rather than anything bigger.
What else do PBers think might change as a result of today?
Edited to add: Er, do a deal with Farage, not UKIP!
High odds bets on Reform to get 7+ seats and to win ‘most seats without Labour’ - and then to trade out of these positions on Saturday.
Does anyone have similar proxy markets which might serve the above well?
Laying Reform 0 seats is another - sadly, I only did a small stake earlier when it was available for 1.67. Now around 3.5. Still something there I think.
Caveat to all the above is I will trade out of these positions within the week - I think they are unlikely to land, I am just counting on a big Reform surge on the markets, helped by less regular punters. I will only hold them if something earth shattering happens like mass defections to Reform.
Lay Reform getting votes.
Basically lay Reform. Incompetent racists don't do well at General Elections in the UK.
Lay the people piling on backing Farage-mania today who are throwing their money away on a serial loser.
https://x.com/UKLabour/status/1797691790197137525
Turnout will increase. Over 65% looks a good bet now.
But anyway it just shows a general attitude of fuck the young in order to appease the 70+ year olds who claim to remember the 1950s as paradise lost.
Football on TNT Sports
@footballontnt
For the first time since 1994, England have named a starting XI without a player from Arsenal, Man United, Man City or Spurs
Well, work in the sense of taking Team Tory’s increasingly demented fancy.
Most people are not impacted by most policies, they can still react to it, and the idea young people in particular would not react as a result of a policy designed to impact their cohort, even if not specifically them right this instance, is simply absurd.
Are the Tories really this thick . The public do not want another divisive referendum !
That being the case, what if Farage starts to mostly drain Labour support? I can just about imagine 38/30, or even a bit closer, happening if the Tories perform at the high end of their polling and sneak some votes back via the debates.