Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Your reminder the betting markets are frequently wrong – politicalbetting.com

1789101113»

Comments

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,889
    Andy_JS said:

    guybrush said:

    Eye opening article:
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/jun/02/did-you-pay-for-that-what-is-driving-the-massive-rise-in-shoplifting

    The Guardian saying "shoplifting effectively decriminalised in the UK".

    Because security guards are afraid of apprehending shoplifters.
    No as the article says they detain them and ban them from the store but the police take hours to arrive and if a major crime is taking place elsewhere often won't attend at all and go there instead.

    Shoplifting less than £200 worth won't even get a fine now at most a caution. Though assault of a shop worker does now carry a six month sentence
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    Radiohead are at number two.

    "TEN BANDS I SHOULD LOVE .... but just don't!
    Classic Album Review"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HfnPDoJ1asA
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,067
    ToryJim said:

    Andy_JS said:

    New:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/02/save-conservative-party-oblivion-scrap-net-zero-year/

    "Save party from electoral oblivion by offering to scrap 2050 net zero target, advises Tory faction

    Group of MPs including Liz Truss and Jacob Rees-Mogg issues five pledges for manifesto, having ‘listened to grassroots’"

    The Tory Party isn’t more important than the planet.
    PlanetJim

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    edited June 3
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    LOL

    We found out why Russia and China can't agree on the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline.

    China wants to pay close to the subsidized Russian domestic price and will only commit to buying a fraction of capacity:

    https://x.com/maxseddon/status/1797360255304663377

    Russia is now just an economic dependent of china, in the same way half of Africa is...
    It should also be concerning to us that a totalitarian regime has a similar global economic power and influence to that which, until very recently, was unique to the US.
  • Danny_FortDanny_Fort Posts: 5
    edited June 3
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    guybrush said:

    Eye opening article:
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/jun/02/did-you-pay-for-that-what-is-driving-the-massive-rise-in-shoplifting

    The Guardian saying "shoplifting effectively decriminalised in the UK".

    Because security guards are afraid of apprehending shoplifters.
    No as the article says they detain them and ban them from the store but the police take hours to arrive and if a major crime is taking place elsewhere often won't attend at all and go there instead.

    Shoplifting less than £200 worth won't even get a fine now at most a caution. Though assault of a shop worker does now carry a six month sentence
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-launches-retail-crime-crackdown

    "The government is also stepping up action to clamp down on offenders who repeatedly target the country’s high streets, with serial offenders forced to wear tags to track their movements.

    These tags will be a constant and physical reminder to offenders that the Probation Service can find out where they have been and when, and that they risk being sent to prison if they refuse to obey the rules. Under an amendment to the Criminal Justice Bill, if an offender is found guilty of assaulting staff 3 times, or is sentenced for shoplifting on 3 separate occasions, they should be made to wear a tag as part of any community order.
    (...)

    The government is also ramping up the use of facial recognition technology to help catch perpetrators and prevent shoplifting in the first place. Backed by a £55.5 million investment over the next 4 years, the police will be able to further roll this new state of the art technology. This will include £4 million for bespoke mobile units that can be deployed to high streets across the country with live facial recognition used in crowded areas to identify people wanted by the police – including repeat shoplifters."


    Xinjiang, here we come!

    Only a few thousand people in Britain are electronically tagged right now. I think it's less than 5000. They could shift that to 100000 "local prolifics". The discourse already seems to be about differentiating them from middle class types who are bit forgetful, feeling a bit oppositional, or understandably annoyed at being inconvenienced at checkout time - too posh to scan without becoming passive-aggressive. The second group won't get tagged.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    guybrush said:

    Andy_JS said:

    guybrush said:

    Eye opening article:
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/jun/02/did-you-pay-for-that-what-is-driving-the-massive-rise-in-shoplifting

    The Guardian saying "shoplifting effectively decriminalised in the UK".

    Because security guards are afraid of apprehending shoplifters.
    Any suggestion from the political parties how they might address this?
    I listened to Triggernometry's interview with Braverman yesterday - said that less serious crimes (property crimes effectively) have been de-prioritised to focus on violent, organised, crimes against the person etc. Suggested she'd tilt the balance back...
    What did she do about that when Home Secretary ?

    It's as though she and her party haven't been in government.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    Zero Republicans who have spent the past few weeks calling Merchan biased will say there's any danger of bias here.

    The 2 judges overseeing Hunter Biden’s trials have a lot in common. For starters, they were both appointed by Trump.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/02/hunter-biden-trial-judges-00161158

    Unlike Merchan, neither have much experience as trial judges.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,067
    edited June 3

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    guybrush said:

    Eye opening article:
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/jun/02/did-you-pay-for-that-what-is-driving-the-massive-rise-in-shoplifting

    The Guardian saying "shoplifting effectively decriminalised in the UK".

    Because security guards are afraid of apprehending shoplifters.
    No as the article says they detain them and ban them from the store but the police take hours to arrive and if a major crime is taking place elsewhere often won't attend at all and go there instead.

    Shoplifting less than £200 worth won't even get a fine now at most a caution. Though assault of a shop worker does now carry a six month sentence
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-launches-retail-crime-crackdown

    "The government is also stepping up action to clamp down on offenders who repeatedly target the country’s high streets, with serial offenders forced to wear tags to track their movements.

    These tags will be a constant and physical reminder to offenders that the Probation Service can find out where they have been and when, and that they risk being sent to prison if they refuse to obey the rules. Under an amendment to the Criminal Justice Bill, if an offender is found guilty of assaulting staff 3 times, or is sentenced for shoplifting on 3 separate occasions, they should be made to wear a tag as part of any community order.
    (...)

    The government is also ramping up the use of facial recognition technology to help catch perpetrators and prevent shoplifting in the first place. Backed by a £55.5 million investment over the next 4 years, the police will be able to further roll this new state of the art technology. This will include £4 million for bespoke mobile units that can be deployed to high streets across the country with live facial recognition used in crowded areas to identify people wanted by the police – including repeat shoplifters."


    Xinjiang, here we come!

    Only a few thousand people in Britain are electronically tagged right now. I think it's less than 5000. They could shift that to 100000 "local prolifics". The discourse already seems to be about differentiating them from middle class types who are bit forgetful, feeling a bit oppositional, or understandably annoyed at being inconvenienced at checkout time - too posh to scan without becoming passive-aggressive. The second group won't get tagged.
    Britain in the 2020s. A Conservative Prime Minister authorises and rejoices in the tracking of every person in public thru security cameras and computers. What the hell happened to the Conservative Party - a party that used to rejoice in freedom - that would allow it to even conceive of such a thing.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,643
    edited June 3

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    guybrush said:

    Eye opening article:
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/jun/02/did-you-pay-for-that-what-is-driving-the-massive-rise-in-shoplifting

    The Guardian saying "shoplifting effectively decriminalised in the UK".

    Because security guards are afraid of apprehending shoplifters.
    No as the article says they detain them and ban them from the store but the police take hours to arrive and if a major crime is taking place elsewhere often won't attend at all and go there instead.

    Shoplifting less than £200 worth won't even get a fine now at most a caution. Though assault of a shop worker does now carry a six month sentence
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-launches-retail-crime-crackdown

    "The government is also stepping up action to clamp down on offenders who repeatedly target the country’s high streets, with serial offenders forced to wear tags to track their movements.

    These tags will be a constant and physical reminder to offenders that the Probation Service can find out where they have been and when, and that they risk being sent to prison if they refuse to obey the rules. Under an amendment to the Criminal Justice Bill, if an offender is found guilty of assaulting staff 3 times, or is sentenced for shoplifting on 3 separate occasions, they should be made to wear a tag as part of any community order.
    (...)

    The government is also ramping up the use of facial recognition technology to help catch perpetrators and prevent shoplifting in the first place. Backed by a £55.5 million investment over the next 4 years, the police will be able to further roll this new state of the art technology. This will include £4 million for bespoke mobile units that can be deployed to high streets across the country with live facial recognition used in crowded areas to identify people wanted by the police – including repeat shoplifters."


    Xinjiang, here we come!

    Only a few thousand people in Britain are electronically tagged right now. I think it's less than 5000. They could shift that to 100000 "local prolifics". The discourse already seems to be about differentiating them from middle class types who are bit forgetful, feeling a bit oppositional, or understandably annoyed at being inconvenienced at checkout time - too posh to scan without becoming passive-aggressive. The second group won't get tagged.
    Yes, we had four different types of shoplifter at my shop:

    1) Professionals with a shopping list
    2) Drug users
    3) Middle aged, middle class people with a mixture of entitlement and/or mental health condition and/or convenient mistake
    4) Kids having fun

    But this was a high end retailer selling specialist/industrial kit. I know that food and basic clothing retailers have a very different cohort nicking stuff. Ordinary people basically.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Nigelb said:

    Zero Republicans who have spent the past few weeks calling Merchan biased will say there's any danger of bias here.

    The 2 judges overseeing Hunter Biden’s trials have a lot in common. For starters, they were both appointed by Trump.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/02/hunter-biden-trial-judges-00161158

    Unlike Merchan, neither have much experience as trial judges.

    Speaking as a Democrat, I hope they throw the book at Hunter Biden. He richly deserved it.

    Would HELP his daddy at this point.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Mexico 2024 election preliminary, unofficial results expected shortly.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    guybrush said:

    Eye opening article:
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/jun/02/did-you-pay-for-that-what-is-driving-the-massive-rise-in-shoplifting

    The Guardian saying "shoplifting effectively decriminalised in the UK".

    Because security guards are afraid of apprehending shoplifters.
    No as the article says they detain them and ban them from the store but the police take hours to arrive and if a major crime is taking place elsewhere often won't attend at all and go there instead.

    Shoplifting less than £200 worth won't even get a fine now at most a caution. Though assault of a shop worker does now carry a six month sentence
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-launches-retail-crime-crackdown

    "The government is also stepping up action to clamp down on offenders who repeatedly target the country’s high streets, with serial offenders forced to wear tags to track their movements.

    These tags will be a constant and physical reminder to offenders that the Probation Service can find out where they have been and when, and that they risk being sent to prison if they refuse to obey the rules. Under an amendment to the Criminal Justice Bill, if an offender is found guilty of assaulting staff 3 times, or is sentenced for shoplifting on 3 separate occasions, they should be made to wear a tag as part of any community order.
    (...)

    The government is also ramping up the use of facial recognition technology to help catch perpetrators and prevent shoplifting in the first place. Backed by a £55.5 million investment over the next 4 years, the police will be able to further roll this new state of the art technology. This will include £4 million for bespoke mobile units that can be deployed to high streets across the country with live facial recognition used in crowded areas to identify people wanted by the police – including repeat shoplifters."


    Xinjiang, here we come!

    Only a few thousand people in Britain are electronically tagged right now. I think it's less than 5000. They could shift that to 100000 "local prolifics". The discourse already seems to be about differentiating them from middle class types who are bit forgetful, feeling a bit oppositional, or understandably annoyed at being inconvenienced at checkout time - too posh to scan without becoming passive-aggressive. The second group won't get tagged.
    Britain in the 2020s. A Conservative Prime Minister authorises and rejoices in the tracking of every person in public thru security cameras and computers. What the hell happened to the Conservative Party - a party that used to rejoice in freedom - that would allow it to even conceive of such a thing.
    Repeat offending criminals should consider themselves lucky they are not behind bars.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061

    Nigelb said:

    Zero Republicans who have spent the past few weeks calling Merchan biased will say there's any danger of bias here.

    The 2 judges overseeing Hunter Biden’s trials have a lot in common. For starters, they were both appointed by Trump.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/02/hunter-biden-trial-judges-00161158

    Unlike Merchan, neither have much experience as trial judges.

    Speaking as a Democrat, I hope they throw the book at Hunter Biden. He richly deserved it.

    Would HELP his daddy at this point.
    I don't have any particular sympathy for him; that's not the point.

    Rather it's an illustration of how absurd is the claim - endorsed by large sections of the GOP and its leadership - that cases against Trump were and are fixed by the White House.

    Guilty or not (I'd say the former), Hunter Biden still deserves due process. And (FWIW) there's much more evidence that he's being selectively prosecuted than there is in Trump's
    case.
    The White House could have weighed in over that; it hasn't.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    WillG said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    guybrush said:

    Eye opening article:
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/jun/02/did-you-pay-for-that-what-is-driving-the-massive-rise-in-shoplifting

    The Guardian saying "shoplifting effectively decriminalised in the UK".

    Because security guards are afraid of apprehending shoplifters.
    No as the article says they detain them and ban them from the store but the police take hours to arrive and if a major crime is taking place elsewhere often won't attend at all and go there instead.

    Shoplifting less than £200 worth won't even get a fine now at most a caution. Though assault of a shop worker does now carry a six month sentence
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-launches-retail-crime-crackdown

    "The government is also stepping up action to clamp down on offenders who repeatedly target the country’s high streets, with serial offenders forced to wear tags to track their movements.

    These tags will be a constant and physical reminder to offenders that the Probation Service can find out where they have been and when, and that they risk being sent to prison if they refuse to obey the rules. Under an amendment to the Criminal Justice Bill, if an offender is found guilty of assaulting staff 3 times, or is sentenced for shoplifting on 3 separate occasions, they should be made to wear a tag as part of any community order.
    (...)

    The government is also ramping up the use of facial recognition technology to help catch perpetrators and prevent shoplifting in the first place. Backed by a £55.5 million investment over the next 4 years, the police will be able to further roll this new state of the art technology. This will include £4 million for bespoke mobile units that can be deployed to high streets across the country with live facial recognition used in crowded areas to identify people wanted by the police – including repeat shoplifters."


    Xinjiang, here we come!

    Only a few thousand people in Britain are electronically tagged right now. I think it's less than 5000. They could shift that to 100000 "local prolifics". The discourse already seems to be about differentiating them from middle class types who are bit forgetful, feeling a bit oppositional, or understandably annoyed at being inconvenienced at checkout time - too posh to scan without becoming passive-aggressive. The second group won't get tagged.
    Britain in the 2020s. A Conservative Prime Minister authorises and rejoices in the tracking of every person in public thru security cameras and computers. What the hell happened to the Conservative Party - a party that used to rejoice in freedom - that would allow it to even conceive of such a thing.
    Repeat offending criminals should consider themselves lucky they are not behind bars.
    What's that got to do with "rejoices in the tracking of every person.." ?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,321
    edited June 3
    SteveS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Tories are heading for 66 seats atm according to Electoral Calculus.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

    Nearly a quarter of people of good judgement think it will be between 185 and 232

    https://www.gjopen.com/questions/3486-how-many-seats-will-the-conservative-party-win-in-the-next-uk-general-election

    In the “Simple Models” method, uniform change in England, Scotland, and Wales separately, Tories get 193 seats.

    https://electionsetc.com/2024/05/30/first-combined-forecast-for-the-2024-general-election/#more-2777
    SpIn now at 136 to 144. I think this is too low and have bet accordingly.
    In which case I suggest you don't put the poll result from We Are into Electoral Calculus.

    No, I'm not taking it too seriously either, but I sure wouldn't be a buyer at 144.

    Btw, if that is your view you'd be doing much better using Betfair and going for one of their banded markets - seat or percentage bands for example. The odds would be relatively generous.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,321
    Andy_JS said:

    The Tories are heading for 66 seats atm according to Electoral Calculus.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

    23 according to We Are (Omnisis).
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Andy_JS said:

    The Tories are heading for 66 seats atm according to Electoral Calculus.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

    23 according to We Are (Omnisis).
    I'm with the PB Tory faithful here. This election is not an extinction event. Word from our PB correspondents on the campaign trail, they are getting a heating from the voters.

    Who knows?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,620

    NEW THREAD

  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,321

    Andy_JS said:

    The Tories are heading for 66 seats atm according to Electoral Calculus.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

    23 according to We Are (Omnisis).
    I'm with the PB Tory faithful here. This election is not an extinction event. Word from our PB correspondents on the campaign trail, they are getting a heating from the voters.

    Who knows?
    I am sure you are, MP. I would be the last one to dispute this because of a single poll, especially from a Pollster that hasn't done a GE survey for some considerable time.

    What I would do, as a punter of course, is have a look at the 23 survivors in that strictly hypothetical scenario and look for betting opportunities in the Next Conservative Laeader market. You gotta be in it to win it, and some of that small band of brothers don't really qualify for various reasons.

    So who would it be?

    Step forward Sir Christopher Chope! Your time has come.
This discussion has been closed.