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Your reminder the betting markets are frequently wrong – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,801
edited June 16 in General
imageYour reminder the betting markets are frequently wrong – politicalbetting.com

This shows the betting on Betfair overall majority market over the last three and a half a years. We can see a Labour majority traded as low as an 8.3% chance in May 2021, now they are a 91% chance.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,857
    They are not generally *that* wrong, TSE.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,401
    All betting markets are wrong, but some are profitable.
  • Options
    ClippPClippP Posts: 1,783
    Yes.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,464

    They are not generally *that* wrong, TSE.

    I was thinking Brexit where Leave went 14/1 30 mins after the polls closed after Farage conceded.
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,857
    edited June 2

    They are not generally *that* wrong, TSE.

    I was thinking Brexit where Leave went 14/1 30 mins after the polls closed after Farage conceded.
    Fair point, but that had a lot to do with misinformation and a febrile atmosphere.

    I can't recall a duller election than this one.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,464

    They are not generally *that* wrong, TSE.

    I was thinking Brexit where Leave went 14/1 30 mins after the polls closed after Farage conceded.
    Fair point, but that had a lot to do with misinformation and a febrile atmosphere.

    I can't recall a duller election than this one.
    2001 was the dullest election.

    Only bit of excitement was when 2 Jags became 2 jabs.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 13,112
    Morning all :)

    As we saw in the London Mayoral election, there is a hyper sensitivity to "rumour" and "gossip" put out as tweets. We had some journo on the Thursday evening claiming "a source at CCHQ was very confident Hall had won". No evidence, just speculation and to be fair CCHQ quickly stamped that out.

    A lot of it was in my view mischief-making by those opposed to Khan - whether there was an active attmept to manipulate the markets I don't know but of course we had no exit poll as we will have after the GE. 1992 tells us exit polls aren't foolproof but they are a good indication of the direction of travel and the scale of the victory/defeat.

    It's also helpful for those playing the Next Conservative Leader market - you might be looking at a different set of runners and riders if 50 MPs survive rather than 100, 150 or 200.

    Will the debates move the markets significantly? Recent experience suggests not.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,878
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    As we saw in the London Mayoral election, there is a hyper sensitivity to "rumour" and "gossip" put out as tweets. We had some journo on the Thursday evening claiming "a source at CCHQ was very confident Hall had won". No evidence, just speculation and to be fair CCHQ quickly stamped that out.

    A lot of it was in my view mischief-making by those opposed to Khan - whether there was an active attmept to manipulate the markets I don't know but of course we had no exit poll as we will have after the GE. 1992 tells us exit polls aren't foolproof but they are a good indication of the direction of travel and the scale of the victory/defeat.

    It's also helpful for those playing the Next Conservative Leader market - you might be looking at a different set of runners and riders if 50 MPs survive rather than 100, 150 or 200.

    Will the debates move the markets significantly? Recent experience suggests not.

    The London market was quite illiquid. The GE will have loads more money piling into it. That should reduce volatility.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,408
    How is the order of manifestos decided? Still can’t find anything on the net about this .

    I would have thought going last would be an advantage as you might be able to tweak a few things in response .

    I still can’t believe Labour won’t have anything new in there besides the policies they’ve announced already .
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,864
    edited June 2
    Farooq said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    As we saw in the London Mayoral election, there is a hyper sensitivity to "rumour" and "gossip" put out as tweets. We had some journo on the Thursday evening claiming "a source at CCHQ was very confident Hall had won". No evidence, just speculation and to be fair CCHQ quickly stamped that out.

    A lot of it was in my view mischief-making by those opposed to Khan - whether there was an active attmept to manipulate the markets I don't know but of course we had no exit poll as we will have after the GE. 1992 tells us exit polls aren't foolproof but they are a good indication of the direction of travel and the scale of the victory/defeat.

    It's also helpful for those playing the Next Conservative Leader market - you might be looking at a different set of runners and riders if 50 MPs survive rather than 100, 150 or 200.

    Will the debates move the markets significantly? Recent experience suggests not.

    The London market was quite illiquid. The GE will have loads more money piling into it. That should reduce volatility.
    Yet again the Brexit referendum vote where the odds went to 14-1.

    That is the perfect example of a liquid market with incorrect information driving it
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,878
    eek said:

    Farooq said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    As we saw in the London Mayoral election, there is a hyper sensitivity to "rumour" and "gossip" put out as tweets. We had some journo on the Thursday evening claiming "a source at CCHQ was very confident Hall had won". No evidence, just speculation and to be fair CCHQ quickly stamped that out.

    A lot of it was in my view mischief-making by those opposed to Khan - whether there was an active attmept to manipulate the markets I don't know but of course we had no exit poll as we will have after the GE. 1992 tells us exit polls aren't foolproof but they are a good indication of the direction of travel and the scale of the victory/defeat.

    It's also helpful for those playing the Next Conservative Leader market - you might be looking at a different set of runners and riders if 50 MPs survive rather than 100, 150 or 200.

    Will the debates move the markets significantly? Recent experience suggests not.

    The London market was quite illiquid. The GE will have loads more money piling into it. That should reduce volatility.
    Yet again the Brexit referendum vote where the odds went to 14-1.

    That is the perfect example of a liquid market with incorrect information driving it
    Aye, but there'll be no direct repeat of that in the GE because we'll have an exit poll.
    In the EU ref, if memory serves, there was a private exit poll so a lot of people thought Farage has better information than they did. And, perhaps he did and he just said the opposite of what he knew.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,291
    nico679 said:

    How is the order of manifestos decided? Still can’t find anything on the net about this .

    I would have thought going last would be an advantage as you might be able to tweak a few things in response .

    I still can’t believe Labour won’t have anything new in there besides the policies they’ve announced already .

    What do you mean? They can publish them whenever they want. They can be published all at the same time for example.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,579
    Farooq said:

    eek said:

    Farooq said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    As we saw in the London Mayoral election, there is a hyper sensitivity to "rumour" and "gossip" put out as tweets. We had some journo on the Thursday evening claiming "a source at CCHQ was very confident Hall had won". No evidence, just speculation and to be fair CCHQ quickly stamped that out.

    A lot of it was in my view mischief-making by those opposed to Khan - whether there was an active attmept to manipulate the markets I don't know but of course we had no exit poll as we will have after the GE. 1992 tells us exit polls aren't foolproof but they are a good indication of the direction of travel and the scale of the victory/defeat.

    It's also helpful for those playing the Next Conservative Leader market - you might be looking at a different set of runners and riders if 50 MPs survive rather than 100, 150 or 200.

    Will the debates move the markets significantly? Recent experience suggests not.

    The London market was quite illiquid. The GE will have loads more money piling into it. That should reduce volatility.
    Yet again the Brexit referendum vote where the odds went to 14-1.

    That is the perfect example of a liquid market with incorrect information driving it
    Aye, but there'll be no direct repeat of that in the GE because we'll have an exit poll.
    In the EU ref, if memory serves, there was a private exit poll so a lot of people thought Farage has better information than they did. And, perhaps he did and he just said the opposite of what he knew.
    Or perhaps it was just MOE stuff. Less than 4% margin?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,063
    It's more that they overreact to information that confirms what they're already inclined to believe.

    I think there's much more money to be made this time in betting on 40-50 key constituencies than playing the main market. Hell, even Joe Biden dying inside 10 weeks is considered more likely than Labour falling short.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 13,112
    eek said:

    Farooq said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    As we saw in the London Mayoral election, there is a hyper sensitivity to "rumour" and "gossip" put out as tweets. We had some journo on the Thursday evening claiming "a source at CCHQ was very confident Hall had won". No evidence, just speculation and to be fair CCHQ quickly stamped that out.

    A lot of it was in my view mischief-making by those opposed to Khan - whether there was an active attmept to manipulate the markets I don't know but of course we had no exit poll as we will have after the GE. 1992 tells us exit polls aren't foolproof but they are a good indication of the direction of travel and the scale of the victory/defeat.

    It's also helpful for those playing the Next Conservative Leader market - you might be looking at a different set of runners and riders if 50 MPs survive rather than 100, 150 or 200.

    Will the debates move the markets significantly? Recent experience suggests not.

    The London market was quite illiquid. The GE will have loads more money piling into it. That should reduce volatility.
    Yet again the Brexit referendum vote where the odds went to 14-1.

    That is the perfect example of a liquid market with incorrect information driving it
    I'm not sure a market with more liquidity reduces volatility - I think it depends on the herd mentality. IF we got an exit poll, as we did in 2017, which suggested something outside the range of many of the immediate pre-election polls, you would see everyone rushing to protect/enhance their positions and that would ramifications through the associated markets.

    The first results might not help as they would be in strong Labour areas - remember how the swing in Sunderland South in 1997 was much smaller than the polls were suggesting but within an hour we were seeing an 18% swing in Crosby. Until we get a better idea of who will be declaring and when it'll be difficult to judge the point at which we'll be seeing the wood for the trees.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,408
    Andy_JS said:

    nico679 said:

    How is the order of manifestos decided? Still can’t find anything on the net about this .

    I would have thought going last would be an advantage as you might be able to tweak a few things in response .

    I still can’t believe Labour won’t have anything new in there besides the policies they’ve announced already .

    What do you mean? They can publish them whenever they want. They can be published all at the same time for example.
    Normally in the past we get one a week from the main parties in the run up to the election . I thought there was some communication between the parties so we don’t get a clash .
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,640
    FPT on VAT and the regressive thing which pitted Farooq against the IFS (and the IMF amongst others https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2002/06/ebrill.htm), a bit like the “Met Office are woke conspirators, May wasn’t warm” twitter thread yesterday.

    VAT has been developed and refined by the EU for decades precisely so that it does not have the regressive effect that any tax linked to spending would ordinarily have. That’s where exemption and zero rating come in. The Labour private schools policy is an example of an exemption that favours those higher up the spectrum, so removing it - for better or worse politically - is consistent with the sort of tinkering that has been done at European level for years.

    No tax is perfect but it is mad not to look at one of the real workhorses of the tax system, especially when other sources are giving diminishing returns. VAT and employer NI are two taxes where our rates are lower than a few peers.

    https://www.cityam.com/tax-rises-are-coming-and-these-are-the-ones-to-look-out-for/
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,329
    These dates were all before private school fees blew up on the doorsteps.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,202
    edited June 2
    FPT

    EPG said:

    Is it that weird that Labour has policies that don't appeal to £150k earners, the private education industry and people who think the latter-day Tory Party are milquetoast lefties?

    OK, so maybe I'll fuck off and take all my tax revenue with me, if that's your attitude. Then see who's going to fill your coffers for your class war.

    How about that?
    What did Theresa May say about citizens of nowhere?
    I have no desire to stay here to be exploited by a resentful and vengeful populace pursuing policies I think will be destructive to the country at my personal expense.

    It's better I take action that will show up their bankruptcy as fast as possible, so the scales fall from people's eyes and the country sobers up as fast as possible.
    1. You're paying 62% tax
    2. They trashed the economy
    3. They trashed public services

    But you'd have to leave if Labour got in because they will be destructive to the country...
    It’s not completely illogical that Labour might be even worse - and TBF Casino was responding to a hypothetical.

    It is going to be a problem for Labour that almost the only people who’ve done OK under the Tories are the wealthy, and that they tend also to be the most internationally mobile.
    Plucking the goose without making it take flight will be a necessary balancing act. Winding up people Casino is not entirely beside the point if that’s how they’re going to govern.

    Is he being selfish ? Perhaps; perhaps not.
    But again, your judgment of him really doesn’t make any difference.

  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 982
    I've always assumed that because the Labour and Lib Dems have got a formal process for approving the manifesto there's a little bit of the WWI railway timetable constraints on shifting the date of their manifesto launch. The Conservative one just seems to emerge (question for PB Tories, who does need to sign off the manifesto?) and so the launch date for them can be more flexible.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,401
    stodge said:

    eek said:

    Farooq said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    As we saw in the London Mayoral election, there is a hyper sensitivity to "rumour" and "gossip" put out as tweets. We had some journo on the Thursday evening claiming "a source at CCHQ was very confident Hall had won". No evidence, just speculation and to be fair CCHQ quickly stamped that out.

    A lot of it was in my view mischief-making by those opposed to Khan - whether there was an active attmept to manipulate the markets I don't know but of course we had no exit poll as we will have after the GE. 1992 tells us exit polls aren't foolproof but they are a good indication of the direction of travel and the scale of the victory/defeat.

    It's also helpful for those playing the Next Conservative Leader market - you might be looking at a different set of runners and riders if 50 MPs survive rather than 100, 150 or 200.

    Will the debates move the markets significantly? Recent experience suggests not.

    The London market was quite illiquid. The GE will have loads more money piling into it. That should reduce volatility.
    Yet again the Brexit referendum vote where the odds went to 14-1.

    That is the perfect example of a liquid market with incorrect information driving it
    I'm not sure a market with more liquidity reduces volatility - I think it depends on the herd mentality. IF we got an exit poll, as we did in 2017, which suggested something outside the range of many of the immediate pre-election polls, you would see everyone rushing to protect/enhance their positions and that would ramifications through the associated markets.

    The first results might not help as they would be in strong Labour areas - remember how the swing in Sunderland South in 1997 was much smaller than the polls were suggesting but within an hour we were seeing an 18% swing in Crosby. Until we get a better idea of who will be declaring and when it'll be difficult to judge the point at which we'll be seeing the wood for the trees.
    The new boundaries will create a degree of uncertainty too. I asked a while ago for suggestions of seats which might declare early, have minimal boundary changes and be good pointers to what will follow. I had some good responses too, which I should collate somewhere.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,464
    EPG said:

    These dates were all before private school fees blew up on the doorsteps.

    Have we done this poll?

    Would it be a good thing or a bad thing if some private schools have to close because they cannot afford to operate if their VAT tax breaks are withdrawn? The public are divided:

    Good thing: 25%
    Bad thing: 28%
    Neither: 29%


    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1796569827886154153
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,202
    They’re still doing this ?
    (It’s not as though Ukraine hasn’t also on occasion blundered - everyone does in war - but they do tend to learn from their mistakes.)

    Russians are claiming they made a column of armor and began to march forward from Kursk. During the march, they were struck, they say the first and last vehicles were destroyed, and then the middle was systematically destroyed. They say the manner of their march was in the style of 2022, and that the damage was catastrophic. Ukrainians aren't saying this, Russian milbloggers are.
    https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1796998318624481346
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    I see that things is kicking off in SA as Zuma sulks that his intervention in the election hasn’t caused enough disruption so wants the election rerun. He’s particularly upset that he doesn’t get to run his home region as a fiefdom so it seems.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,640
    Nigelb said:

    FPT

    EPG said:

    Is it that weird that Labour has policies that don't appeal to £150k earners, the private education industry and people who think the latter-day Tory Party are milquetoast lefties?

    OK, so maybe I'll fuck off and take all my tax revenue with me, if that's your attitude. Then see who's going to fill your coffers for your class war.

    How about that?
    What did Theresa May say about citizens of nowhere?
    I have no desire to stay here to be exploited by a resentful and vengeful populace pursuing policies I think will be destructive to the country at my personal expense.

    It's better I take action that will show up their bankruptcy as fast as possible, so the scales fall from people's eyes and the country sobers up as fast as possible.
    1. You're paying 62% tax
    2. They trashed the economy
    3. They trashed public services

    But you'd have to leave if Labour got in because they will be destructive to the country...
    It’s not completely illogical that Labour might be even worse - and TBF Casino was responding to a hypothetical.

    It is going to be a problem for Labour that almost the only people who’ve done OK under the Tories are the wealthy, and that they tend also to be the most internationally mobile.
    Plucking the goose without making it take flight will be a necessary balancing act. Winding up people Casino is not entirely beside the point if that’s how they’re going to govern.

    Is he being selfish ? Perhaps; perhaps not.
    But again, your judgment of him really doesn’t make any difference.

    Interesting discussing the behavioural effect of the non-dom reform so far with private clients colleagues: tax is typically fairly low down most people’s list of variables when deciding where to live and work. It tends to become a tipping point when it’s either extremely material to the individual (eg if the ultra wealthy non doms can no longer shelter estates from IHT), or the straw that breaks the camel’s back alongside other factors like capital markets access, employer location, geopolitics and so on.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,408

    EPG said:

    These dates were all before private school fees blew up on the doorsteps.

    Have we done this poll?

    Would it be a good thing or a bad thing if some private schools have to close because they cannot afford to operate if their VAT tax breaks are withdrawn? The public are divided:

    Good thing: 25%
    Bad thing: 28%
    Neither: 29%


    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1796569827886154153
    It’s really a wash looking at that polling . And the question is quite loaded anyway . If you ask a different question you’ll probably get a strong majority for the Labour policy .
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,291
    ANC saying that coalition parties can't demand that Ramaphosa stands down as part of a deal is interesting when the opposition parties will control 60% of seats.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 13,112

    It's more that they overreact to information that confirms what they're already inclined to believe.

    I think there's much more money to be made this time in betting on 40-50 key constituencies than playing the main market. Hell, even Joe Biden dying inside 10 weeks is considered more likely than Labour falling short.

    To an extent, that's correct but no one wants to be left high, dry and poor if the rumour turns out to be true.

    As for constituency betting, I wouldn't get involved unless I had very good intelligence on the ground as to what was happening and seeing if the tissue I created of the chances matched the bookies' odds.

    In 1997, local bookmakers caught a cold when trying to bet without that intelligence - simply applying UNS and hoping that's what happens is another fast route to the poorhouse. Yes, 1/500 Labour to hold East Ham is a pretty safe bet but most of us don't have £5k lying round to pick up another £10.

    I think bookmaker intelligence is better now but there are undoubtedly some good bets if you are in the know.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,669
    edited June 2

    EPG said:

    These dates were all before private school fees blew up on the doorsteps.

    Have we done this poll?

    Would it be a good thing or a bad thing if some private schools have to close because they cannot afford to operate if their VAT tax breaks are withdrawn? The public are divided:

    Good thing: 25%
    Bad thing: 28%
    Neither: 29%


    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1796569827886154153
    Would it be a good thing or a bad thing if a tax was raised on the richest 5% to fund investment in schools? The public are not divided:

    Good thing: 95%
    Bad thing: 5%
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,063
    stodge said:

    It's more that they overreact to information that confirms what they're already inclined to believe.

    I think there's much more money to be made this time in betting on 40-50 key constituencies than playing the main market. Hell, even Joe Biden dying inside 10 weeks is considered more likely than Labour falling short.

    To an extent, that's correct but no one wants to be left high, dry and poor if the rumour turns out to be true.

    As for constituency betting, I wouldn't get involved unless I had very good intelligence on the ground as to what was happening and seeing if the tissue I created of the chances matched the bookies' odds.

    In 1997, local bookmakers caught a cold when trying to bet without that intelligence - simply applying UNS and hoping that's what happens is another fast route to the poorhouse. Yes, 1/500 Labour to hold East Ham is a pretty safe bet but most of us don't have £5k lying round to pick up another £10.

    I think bookmaker intelligence is better now but there are undoubtedly some good bets if you are in the know.
    I overrate ground intelligence- it's frequently wrong, and only really good at the count or if the canvassing returns are unambiguous and overwhelming.

    I compensate for any lack of knowledge by seeking out real value on the markets where the price is at odds with the data.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,401
    Andy_JS said:

    ANC saying that coalition parties can't demand that Ramaphosa stands down as part of a deal is interesting when the opposition parties will control 60% of seats.

    The opposition parties are unlikely to be able to all work together. I don't see the Democratic Alliance forming a coalition with Zuma, for example.

    But if the ANC insist on Ramaphosa staying on they will have to make some petty hefty concessions elsewhere.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,138
    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    Nigelb said:

    They’re still doing this ?
    (It’s not as though Ukraine hasn’t also on occasion blundered - everyone does in war - but they do tend to learn from their mistakes.)

    Russians are claiming they made a column of armor and began to march forward from Kursk. During the march, they were struck, they say the first and last vehicles were destroyed, and then the middle was systematically destroyed. They say the manner of their march was in the style of 2022, and that the damage was catastrophic. Ukrainians aren't saying this, Russian milbloggers are.
    https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1796998318624481346

    One presumes it’s the problem with basing your military operations on pressganged convicts and highly unmotivated conscripts. You can only get them to do the bare minimum of disciplined tasks so the best way to move is in column. It probably doesn’t help that Russia has rarely put a high value on the lives of its soldiery. There has to come a point where there is a widespread collapse of even bad military effectiveness, I’m staggered that with half a million casualties we still haven’t had a full mutiny.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,559
    Andy_JS said:

    ANC saying that coalition parties can't demand that Ramaphosa stands down as part of a deal is interesting when the opposition parties will control 60% of seats.

    They are still trying to adjust to a world where the ANC doesn’t get what it wants, automatically
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,669
    edited June 2
    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    Why is his ethnicity or sexuality important?

    I've come across people of all backgrounds and sexual preferences with similar attitudes to taxation as CR. Look at Malcolm; he's Scottish.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761

    stodge said:

    eek said:

    Farooq said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    As we saw in the London Mayoral election, there is a hyper sensitivity to "rumour" and "gossip" put out as tweets. We had some journo on the Thursday evening claiming "a source at CCHQ was very confident Hall had won". No evidence, just speculation and to be fair CCHQ quickly stamped that out.

    A lot of it was in my view mischief-making by those opposed to Khan - whether there was an active attmept to manipulate the markets I don't know but of course we had no exit poll as we will have after the GE. 1992 tells us exit polls aren't foolproof but they are a good indication of the direction of travel and the scale of the victory/defeat.

    It's also helpful for those playing the Next Conservative Leader market - you might be looking at a different set of runners and riders if 50 MPs survive rather than 100, 150 or 200.

    Will the debates move the markets significantly? Recent experience suggests not.

    The London market was quite illiquid. The GE will have loads more money piling into it. That should reduce volatility.
    Yet again the Brexit referendum vote where the odds went to 14-1.

    That is the perfect example of a liquid market with incorrect information driving it
    I'm not sure a market with more liquidity reduces volatility - I think it depends on the herd mentality. IF we got an exit poll, as we did in 2017, which suggested something outside the range of many of the immediate pre-election polls, you would see everyone rushing to protect/enhance their positions and that would ramifications through the associated markets.

    The first results might not help as they would be in strong Labour areas - remember how the swing in Sunderland South in 1997 was much smaller than the polls were suggesting but within an hour we were seeing an 18% swing in Crosby. Until we get a better idea of who will be declaring and when it'll be difficult to judge the point at which we'll be seeing the wood for the trees.
    The new boundaries will create a degree of uncertainty too. I asked a while ago for suggestions of seats which might declare early, have minimal boundary changes and be good pointers to what will follow. I had some good responses too, which I should collate somewhere.
    Nuneaton, usually the first bellwether constituency to declare, around 1am, and unchanged in the boundary review.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuneaton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 982

    stodge said:

    eek said:

    Farooq said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    As we saw in the London Mayoral election, there is a hyper sensitivity to "rumour" and "gossip" put out as tweets. We had some journo on the Thursday evening claiming "a source at CCHQ was very confident Hall had won". No evidence, just speculation and to be fair CCHQ quickly stamped that out.

    A lot of it was in my view mischief-making by those opposed to Khan - whether there was an active attmept to manipulate the markets I don't know but of course we had no exit poll as we will have after the GE. 1992 tells us exit polls aren't foolproof but they are a good indication of the direction of travel and the scale of the victory/defeat.

    It's also helpful for those playing the Next Conservative Leader market - you might be looking at a different set of runners and riders if 50 MPs survive rather than 100, 150 or 200.

    Will the debates move the markets significantly? Recent experience suggests not.

    The London market was quite illiquid. The GE will have loads more money piling into it. That should reduce volatility.
    Yet again the Brexit referendum vote where the odds went to 14-1.

    That is the perfect example of a liquid market with incorrect information driving it
    I'm not sure a market with more liquidity reduces volatility - I think it depends on the herd mentality. IF we got an exit poll, as we did in 2017, which suggested something outside the range of many of the immediate pre-election polls, you would see everyone rushing to protect/enhance their positions and that would ramifications through the associated markets.

    The first results might not help as they would be in strong Labour areas - remember how the swing in Sunderland South in 1997 was much smaller than the polls were suggesting but within an hour we were seeing an 18% swing in Crosby. Until we get a better idea of who will be declaring and when it'll be difficult to judge the point at which we'll be seeing the wood for the trees.
    The new boundaries will create a degree of uncertainty too. I asked a while ago for suggestions of seats which might declare early, have minimal boundary changes and be good pointers to what will follow. I had some good responses too, which I should collate somewhere.
    Here's the list of constituencies with unchanged boundaries.

    Altrincham and Sale West, Bootle, Bradford West, Bromsgrove, Burton, Cannock Chase, Cheadle, Chesterfield, Coventry North West, Crawley, Derby North, Derby South, East Worthing and Shoreham, Epping Forest, Erewash, Forest of Dean, Gillingham and Rainham, Gosport, Gravesham, Great Yarmouth, Hartlepool, Havant, High Peak, Hove, Hyndburn, Ipswich, Islington North, Lincoln, Macclesfield, New Forest East, New Forest West, North Devon, North Warwickshire, Nuneaton, Oldham East and Saddleworth, Oldham West and Royton, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Portsmouth North, Portsmouth South, Scarborough and Whitby, South Holland and The Deepings, Southampton Itchen, Southampton Test, Spelthorne, St Helens North, Stalybridge and Hyde, Stretford and Urmston, Sunderland Central, Sutton Coldfield, Tooting, Tunbridge Wells, Walthamstow, West Lancashire, West Worcestershire, Wigan, Worcester, Wyre Forest, Wythenshawe and Sale East, Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock, Central Ayrshire, East Renfrewshire, Na h-Eileanan an Iar, Kilmarnock and Loudoun, Midlothian, North Ayrshire and Arran, Orkney and Shetland, West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, Ynys Môn

    Four of them are unchanged but with expanded names.
    Burton will be Burton & Uttoxeter
    Hove will be Hove & Portslade
    North Warwickshire will be North Warwickshire & Bedworth
    Oldham West & Royton will be Oldham West, Chadderton & Royton


  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,408
    Yvette Cooper refusing to put a target on net migration can hardly be jumped on by the Tories . Given they’ve overseen the largest ever figures and every target they’ve set has been missed .
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,063
    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,203
    EPG said:

    These dates were all before private school fees blew up on the doorsteps.

    Private school fees is no dementia tax.

    It predominately hits Tories.

    So thats all good.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,319
    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    You address this to lefties but surely it is righties who have reduced the country to this bloody mess in the last 14 years they have been running the show.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,559
    Nigelb said:

    They’re still doing this ?
    (It’s not as though Ukraine hasn’t also on occasion blundered - everyone does in war - but they do tend to learn from their mistakes.)

    Russians are claiming they made a column of armor and began to march forward from Kursk. During the march, they were struck, they say the first and last vehicles were destroyed, and then the middle was systematically destroyed. They say the manner of their march was in the style of 2022, and that the damage was catastrophic. Ukrainians aren't saying this, Russian milbloggers are.
    https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1796998318624481346

    Last thread, I believe.

    If you have poor logistics, forming up a large group takes lots of time. Poor roads make this worse, historically.

    Which is why when the American Army exploited their complete off road capability in 1991, the military world was a rather astonished. The ability to take the entire army, logistics and all, for a drive in the country was something quite startling.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,640
    Sandpit said:

    stodge said:

    eek said:

    Farooq said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    As we saw in the London Mayoral election, there is a hyper sensitivity to "rumour" and "gossip" put out as tweets. We had some journo on the Thursday evening claiming "a source at CCHQ was very confident Hall had won". No evidence, just speculation and to be fair CCHQ quickly stamped that out.

    A lot of it was in my view mischief-making by those opposed to Khan - whether there was an active attmept to manipulate the markets I don't know but of course we had no exit poll as we will have after the GE. 1992 tells us exit polls aren't foolproof but they are a good indication of the direction of travel and the scale of the victory/defeat.

    It's also helpful for those playing the Next Conservative Leader market - you might be looking at a different set of runners and riders if 50 MPs survive rather than 100, 150 or 200.

    Will the debates move the markets significantly? Recent experience suggests not.

    The London market was quite illiquid. The GE will have loads more money piling into it. That should reduce volatility.
    Yet again the Brexit referendum vote where the odds went to 14-1.

    That is the perfect example of a liquid market with incorrect information driving it
    I'm not sure a market with more liquidity reduces volatility - I think it depends on the herd mentality. IF we got an exit poll, as we did in 2017, which suggested something outside the range of many of the immediate pre-election polls, you would see everyone rushing to protect/enhance their positions and that would ramifications through the associated markets.

    The first results might not help as they would be in strong Labour areas - remember how the swing in Sunderland South in 1997 was much smaller than the polls were suggesting but within an hour we were seeing an 18% swing in Crosby. Until we get a better idea of who will be declaring and when it'll be difficult to judge the point at which we'll be seeing the wood for the trees.
    The new boundaries will create a degree of uncertainty too. I asked a while ago for suggestions of seats which might declare early, have minimal boundary changes and be good pointers to what will follow. I had some good responses too, which I should collate somewhere.
    Nuneaton, usually the first bellwether constituency to declare, around 1am, and unchanged in the boundary review.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuneaton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
    What time are you all planning on staying up till?

    I was 3.30am in 2010, similar in 2015 (no idea why, it was a miserable election for Lib Dems), only around 2am in 2017 and went to bed shortly after the exit poll in 2019 out of sheer despondency.

    Thinking this might be a 3.30-4am one.
  • Options
    megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    There was a Kate Mosse on R4 broadcasting house this morning, apparently an author of historical fiction, who thinks D Day was the same thing as Dunkirk. Extraordinary. Not clear whether the small ships rescued them from the Normandy beaches or loaded up with tanks and invaded.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,953
    edited June 2

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,559
    ToryJim said:

    Nigelb said:

    They’re still doing this ?
    (It’s not as though Ukraine hasn’t also on occasion blundered - everyone does in war - but they do tend to learn from their mistakes.)

    Russians are claiming they made a column of armor and began to march forward from Kursk. During the march, they were struck, they say the first and last vehicles were destroyed, and then the middle was systematically destroyed. They say the manner of their march was in the style of 2022, and that the damage was catastrophic. Ukrainians aren't saying this, Russian milbloggers are.
    https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1796998318624481346

    One presumes it’s the problem with basing your military operations on pressganged convicts and highly unmotivated conscripts. You can only get them to do the bare minimum of disciplined tasks so the best way to move is in column. It probably doesn’t help that Russia has rarely put a high value on the lives of its soldiery. There has to come a point where there is a widespread collapse of even bad military effectiveness, I’m staggered that with half a million casualties we still haven’t had a full mutiny.
    Well it’s the army where, according to pro state Russian talking heads, a bit of rape is just disciplinary. And not at all gay. No sir.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,063
    Eabhal said:

    EPG said:

    These dates were all before private school fees blew up on the doorsteps.

    Have we done this poll?

    Would it be a good thing or a bad thing if some private schools have to close because they cannot afford to operate if their VAT tax breaks are withdrawn? The public are divided:

    Good thing: 25%
    Bad thing: 28%
    Neither: 29%


    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1796569827886154153
    Would it be a good thing or a bad thing if a tax was raised on the richest 5% to fund investment in schools? The public are not divided:

    Good thing: 95%
    Bad thing: 5%
    Yes, but it's a facile question.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,390
    Eabhal said:

    EPG said:

    These dates were all before private school fees blew up on the doorsteps.

    Have we done this poll?

    Would it be a good thing or a bad thing if some private schools have to close because they cannot afford to operate if their VAT tax breaks are withdrawn? The public are divided:

    Good thing: 25%
    Bad thing: 28%
    Neither: 29%


    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1796569827886154153
    Would it be a good thing or a bad thing if a tax was raised on the richest 5% to fund investment in schools? The public are not divided:

    Good thing: 95%
    Bad thing: 5%
    People are always happy to increase taxes on other people.

    But they're a lot more doubtful as to whether VAT on private schools would be effective way of raising money.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,063
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,059
    Sandpit said:

    stodge said:

    eek said:

    Farooq said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    As we saw in the London Mayoral election, there is a hyper sensitivity to "rumour" and "gossip" put out as tweets. We had some journo on the Thursday evening claiming "a source at CCHQ was very confident Hall had won". No evidence, just speculation and to be fair CCHQ quickly stamped that out.

    A lot of it was in my view mischief-making by those opposed to Khan - whether there was an active attmept to manipulate the markets I don't know but of course we had no exit poll as we will have after the GE. 1992 tells us exit polls aren't foolproof but they are a good indication of the direction of travel and the scale of the victory/defeat.

    It's also helpful for those playing the Next Conservative Leader market - you might be looking at a different set of runners and riders if 50 MPs survive rather than 100, 150 or 200.

    Will the debates move the markets significantly? Recent experience suggests not.

    The London market was quite illiquid. The GE will have loads more money piling into it. That should reduce volatility.
    Yet again the Brexit referendum vote where the odds went to 14-1.

    That is the perfect example of a liquid market with incorrect information driving it
    I'm not sure a market with more liquidity reduces volatility - I think it depends on the herd mentality. IF we got an exit poll, as we did in 2017, which suggested something outside the range of many of the immediate pre-election polls, you would see everyone rushing to protect/enhance their positions and that would ramifications through the associated markets.

    The first results might not help as they would be in strong Labour areas - remember how the swing in Sunderland South in 1997 was much smaller than the polls were suggesting but within an hour we were seeing an 18% swing in Crosby. Until we get a better idea of who will be declaring and when it'll be difficult to judge the point at which we'll be seeing the wood for the trees.
    The new boundaries will create a degree of uncertainty too. I asked a while ago for suggestions of seats which might declare early, have minimal boundary changes and be good pointers to what will follow. I had some good responses too, which I should collate somewhere.
    Nuneaton, usually the first bellwether constituency to declare, around 1am, and unchanged in the boundary review.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuneaton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
    I remember in 1997 it was the early result from Birmingham Edgbaston (gained by Gisela Stuart) that told me Labour were going to win, and win big. At the time, it had been held by the Tories since the 1930s, and amazingly it has been Labour held ever since 1997.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,953

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    You address this to lefties but surely it is righties who have reduced the country to this bloody mess in the last 14 years they have been running the show.
    All of a sudden the supposed emigration, which is happening right now we are told, is blamed on a Labour Government?

    Something very odd going on with the causality nexus of the space-time continuum.
  • Options
    TresTres Posts: 2,333
    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    Lucky the main impact of 14 years of Tory rules makes it harder for people to easily leave the country.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105

    Andy_JS said:

    ANC saying that coalition parties can't demand that Ramaphosa stands down as part of a deal is interesting when the opposition parties will control 60% of seats.

    The opposition parties are unlikely to be able to all work together. I don't see the Democratic Alliance forming a coalition with Zuma, for example.

    But if the ANC insist on Ramaphosa staying on they will have to make some petty hefty concessions elsewhere.
    Not even sure the ANC will do a deal with Zuma. I mean there must be a reason that Ramaphosa succeeded in ousting him in the first place?

    As you say they will have to put a lot of other things on the table to get Ramaphosa off it.

    There are quite a few ways this result could be a disaster for SA given the balance of power could be held by a bunch of economically illiterate, revolutionary LARPing Marxists or the posse of a fragile egomaniac wannabe autocrat. There is a way by which this could finally fulfil the promise of a multiracial SA, but it is narrow and not yet clear if the ANC are mature enough to take it.
  • Options
    MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,517
    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    Casino can swivel.

    Like Andrew Neil he's a walking example that despite having won economically and politically for the last quarter of a century he's still fucked off.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,559

    EPG said:

    These dates were all before private school fees blew up on the doorsteps.

    Private school fees is no dementia tax.

    It predominately hits Tories.

    So thats all good.
    Judging by the parents I know, majority Lib Dem.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,063
    nico679 said:

    Yvette Cooper refusing to put a target on net migration can hardly be jumped on by the Tories . Given they’ve overseen the largest ever figures and every target they’ve set has been missed .

    This is the answer to every criticism of Labour, isn't it? "The Tories", "14 years". Etc.

    You are standing for office for 5 years.

    You have questions to answer about what you'd do. You don't get to not answer them.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,953

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    The concept of causality in time is evidently completely alien to you. Blaming Labour and everyone else for a Conservative government's policies and their results.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,390
    Nigelb said:

    They’re still doing this ?
    (It’s not as though Ukraine hasn’t also on occasion blundered - everyone does in war - but they do tend to learn from their mistakes.)

    Russians are claiming they made a column of armor and began to march forward from Kursk. During the march, they were struck, they say the first and last vehicles were destroyed, and then the middle was systematically destroyed. They say the manner of their march was in the style of 2022, and that the damage was catastrophic. Ukrainians aren't saying this, Russian milbloggers are.
    https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1796998318624481346

    Default to standard operating procedure.

    Experience doesn't matter if those getting the experience are killed before they can change the procedures.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,329
    The logical consequence of the private schooler, scrimp and save argument is that NO further tax take should come from six-figure earners - private schools simply being the current point of contention.

    Time for the £18k earners to pay up under a Labour government?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,559

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Also jobs moving.

    A company I worked with couldn’t recruit the people they wanted in Hamburg. The jobs are not now in Hamburg. They are where the staff can be retained.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,240
    edited June 2

    EPG said:

    These dates were all before private school fees blew up on the doorsteps.

    Have we done this poll?

    Would it be a good thing or a bad thing if some private schools have to close because they cannot afford to operate if their VAT tax breaks are withdrawn? The public are divided:

    Good thing: 25%
    Bad thing: 28%
    Neither: 29%


    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1796569827886154153
    I'm amazed that a question phrased like that only had 28% support. Is it a good thing or a bad thing if ANYTHING couldn't afford to operate anymore because their tax breaks were being withdrawn? We're a compassionate nation. We don't like people being forced into penury. Had it asked "Should private schooling lose their tax breaks" I suggest you'd have a very different answer
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,138

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    You address this to lefties but surely it is righties who have reduced the country to this bloody mess in the last 14 years they have been running the show.
    Fair. The Tories are equally to blame. Indeed MORE to blame in some ways - especially the isane immigration of the last 3 years. That’s entirely on them. That’s what they CHOSE

    So I agree and it why I’m not voting Tory

    Nonetheless as a society we need to ask these questions. Other countries are now competing hard for clever hard working people like @Casino_Royale who pays a LOT of tax. Why should he linger in Britain which does its best to sneer at him and say he a toxic white male?
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,408

    nico679 said:

    Yvette Cooper refusing to put a target on net migration can hardly be jumped on by the Tories . Given they’ve overseen the largest ever figures and every target they’ve set has been missed .

    This is the answer to every criticism of Labour, isn't it? "The Tories", "14 years". Etc.

    You are standing for office for 5 years.

    You have questions to answer about what you'd do. You don't get to not answer them.
    She told LK what she’d do . She refused to answer about a target because putting targets on net migration is a fools game.

    Any figure she gives will be jumped on .
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,559

    Nigelb said:

    They’re still doing this ?
    (It’s not as though Ukraine hasn’t also on occasion blundered - everyone does in war - but they do tend to learn from their mistakes.)

    Russians are claiming they made a column of armor and began to march forward from Kursk. During the march, they were struck, they say the first and last vehicles were destroyed, and then the middle was systematically destroyed. They say the manner of their march was in the style of 2022, and that the damage was catastrophic. Ukrainians aren't saying this, Russian milbloggers are.
    https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1796998318624481346

    Default to standard operating procedure.

    Experience doesn't matter if those getting the experience are killed before they can change the procedures.

    “Even winning battles isn’t important to you. Is it?” Goto Dengo looks the other way, shamefaced. “Haven’t you guys figured out yet that banzai charges DON’T FUCKING WORK?”

    Goto Dengo “All of the people who learned that were killed in banzai charges,”
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    edited June 2
    TimS said:

    Sandpit said:

    stodge said:

    eek said:

    Farooq said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    As we saw in the London Mayoral election, there is a hyper sensitivity to "rumour" and "gossip" put out as tweets. We had some journo on the Thursday evening claiming "a source at CCHQ was very confident Hall had won". No evidence, just speculation and to be fair CCHQ quickly stamped that out.

    A lot of it was in my view mischief-making by those opposed to Khan - whether there was an active attmept to manipulate the markets I don't know but of course we had no exit poll as we will have after the GE. 1992 tells us exit polls aren't foolproof but they are a good indication of the direction of travel and the scale of the victory/defeat.

    It's also helpful for those playing the Next Conservative Leader market - you might be looking at a different set of runners and riders if 50 MPs survive rather than 100, 150 or 200.

    Will the debates move the markets significantly? Recent experience suggests not.

    The London market was quite illiquid. The GE will have loads more money piling into it. That should reduce volatility.
    Yet again the Brexit referendum vote where the odds went to 14-1.

    That is the perfect example of a liquid market with incorrect information driving it
    I'm not sure a market with more liquidity reduces volatility - I think it depends on the herd mentality. IF we got an exit poll, as we did in 2017, which suggested something outside the range of many of the immediate pre-election polls, you would see everyone rushing to protect/enhance their positions and that would ramifications through the associated markets.

    The first results might not help as they would be in strong Labour areas - remember how the swing in Sunderland South in 1997 was much smaller than the polls were suggesting but within an hour we were seeing an 18% swing in Crosby. Until we get a better idea of who will be declaring and when it'll be difficult to judge the point at which we'll be seeing the wood for the trees.
    The new boundaries will create a degree of uncertainty too. I asked a while ago for suggestions of seats which might declare early, have minimal boundary changes and be good pointers to what will follow. I had some good responses too, which I should collate somewhere.
    Nuneaton, usually the first bellwether constituency to declare, around 1am, and unchanged in the boundary review.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuneaton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
    What time are you all planning on staying up till?

    I was 3.30am in 2010, similar in 2015 (no idea why, it was a miserable election for Lib Dems), only around 2am in 2017 and went to bed shortly after the exit poll in 2019 out of sheer despondency.

    Thinking this might be a 3.30-4am one.
    I’m three hours ahead of the UK, so will stay up for the exit poll at 1am, then get sleep until about 6am.

    I tried staying up all night with a friend in 2015, and ended up very drunk and tired for days. My last memory before falling asleep, was Ed Balls losing his seat.
  • Options
    novanova Posts: 602

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    I think this has to win the award for cringiest election social media.

    https://x.com/kane_blackwell/status/1797194112593973755?s=61

    Why do they do this? Why!?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,559
    Tres said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    Lucky the main impact of 14 years of Tory rules makes it harder for people to easily leave the country.
    It’s actually easier for people to move countries for jobs than 10 years ago. I am continually astonished by how many places work is conducted in English. To the point of apologising if there is one English speaker in the room and someone starts talking in French or whatever.

    At 6 figure job levels, the visa stuff is sorted out for you by the company hiring, very often. For example, the big banks in New York. No Green Card lottery. Same for Germany and France.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,138
    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    And there it is. Why on earth should us white straight men stay in a country that despises us and wants fewer of us?
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 982
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    You address this to lefties but surely it is righties who have reduced the country to this bloody mess in the last 14 years they have been running the show.
    Fair. The Tories are equally to blame. Indeed MORE to blame in some ways - especially the isane immigration of the last 3 years. That’s entirely on them. That’s what they CHOSE

    So I agree and it why I’m not voting Tory

    Nonetheless as a society we need to ask these questions. Other countries are now competing hard for clever hard working people like @Casino_Royale who pays a LOT of tax. Why should he linger in Britain which does its best to sneer at him and say he a toxic white male?
    I'm getting a sense of deja vu, didn't we have the same topic of conversation (Labour waging a class war against Casino personally) last Sunday? Sod that for a game of soldiers, I'll come back tomorrow.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,953
    edited June 2
    Just to remind us all: this is what schooling has to be like for perhaps rather more than 7% of the population.

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/article/2024/jun/02/full-tummy-school-breakfast-labour-plan-pupils
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,464
    TimS said:

    Sandpit said:

    stodge said:

    eek said:

    Farooq said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    As we saw in the London Mayoral election, there is a hyper sensitivity to "rumour" and "gossip" put out as tweets. We had some journo on the Thursday evening claiming "a source at CCHQ was very confident Hall had won". No evidence, just speculation and to be fair CCHQ quickly stamped that out.

    A lot of it was in my view mischief-making by those opposed to Khan - whether there was an active attmept to manipulate the markets I don't know but of course we had no exit poll as we will have after the GE. 1992 tells us exit polls aren't foolproof but they are a good indication of the direction of travel and the scale of the victory/defeat.

    It's also helpful for those playing the Next Conservative Leader market - you might be looking at a different set of runners and riders if 50 MPs survive rather than 100, 150 or 200.

    Will the debates move the markets significantly? Recent experience suggests not.

    The London market was quite illiquid. The GE will have loads more money piling into it. That should reduce volatility.
    Yet again the Brexit referendum vote where the odds went to 14-1.

    That is the perfect example of a liquid market with incorrect information driving it
    I'm not sure a market with more liquidity reduces volatility - I think it depends on the herd mentality. IF we got an exit poll, as we did in 2017, which suggested something outside the range of many of the immediate pre-election polls, you would see everyone rushing to protect/enhance their positions and that would ramifications through the associated markets.

    The first results might not help as they would be in strong Labour areas - remember how the swing in Sunderland South in 1997 was much smaller than the polls were suggesting but within an hour we were seeing an 18% swing in Crosby. Until we get a better idea of who will be declaring and when it'll be difficult to judge the point at which we'll be seeing the wood for the trees.
    The new boundaries will create a degree of uncertainty too. I asked a while ago for suggestions of seats which might declare early, have minimal boundary changes and be good pointers to what will follow. I had some good responses too, which I should collate somewhere.
    Nuneaton, usually the first bellwether constituency to declare, around 1am, and unchanged in the boundary review.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuneaton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
    What time are you all planning on staying up till?

    I was 3.30am in 2010, similar in 2015 (no idea why, it was a miserable election for Lib Dems), only around 2am in 2017 and went to bed shortly after the exit poll in 2019 out of sheer despondency.

    Thinking this might be a 3.30-4am one.
    So I am sticking to my usual plan, take off the Thursday and Friday.

    Thursday wake up as normal, check the betting markets, do some PB threads.

    Got to bed at 2pm and wake up at 7pm.

    Vote at 7.30pm and ask the staff if voting has been brisk.

    Then stay up until middayish.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,842
    edited June 2
    Betting markets are essentially statements of probability. They’re saying at the moment that if this election were run 11 times the Tories would win once in those 11. One in 11 chances happen. Indeed two of them happened in 2016.

    Market assessment of the probability is open to question though. The polling in the EU Ref up to it happening wildly varied from the probabilities implied by the market, and bettors took far too much attention to Farage’s apparent “concession”.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    Well at least the worst any candidate in the uk can expect is some heckling or the unexpected delivery of produce. Imagine running in an election where 37 candidates have been murdered already.

    https://x.com/skynews/status/1797212119819022743?s=61
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,138

    Tres said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    Lucky the main impact of 14 years of Tory rules makes it harder for people to easily leave the country.
    It’s actually easier for people to move countries for jobs than 10 years ago. I am continually astonished by how many places work is conducted in English. To the point of apologising if there is one English speaker in the room and someone starts talking in French or whatever.

    At 6 figure job levels, the visa stuff is sorted out for you by the company hiring, very often. For example, the big banks in New York. No Green Card lottery. Same for Germany and France.
    Plus digital nomad visas
  • Options
    TresTres Posts: 2,333
    edited June 2

    Tres said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    Lucky the main impact of 14 years of Tory rules makes it harder for people to easily leave the country.
    It’s actually easier for people to move countries for jobs than 10 years ago. I am continually astonished by how many places work is conducted in English. To the point of apologising if there is one English speaker in the room and someone starts talking in French or whatever.

    At 6 figure job levels, the visa stuff is sorted out for you by the company hiring, very often. For example, the big banks in New York. No Green Card lottery. Same for Germany and France.
    Obv depends on the industry but the type of job I was doing 15 years ago that relied on FOM across Europe no longer exists.

    [edit] not strictly true you can go to Bermuda but who wants to live in bloody Bermuda [ edit]
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,138
    DM_Andy said:


    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    You address this to lefties but surely it is righties who have reduced the country to this bloody mess in the last 14 years they have been running the show.
    Fair. The Tories are equally to blame. Indeed MORE to blame in some ways - especially the isane immigration of the last 3 years. That’s entirely on them. That’s what they CHOSE

    So I agree and it why I’m not voting Tory

    Nonetheless as a society we need to ask these questions. Other countries are now competing hard for clever hard working people like @Casino_Royale who pays a LOT of tax. Why should he linger in Britain which does its best to sneer at him and say he a toxic white male?
    I'm getting a sense of deja vu, didn't we have the same topic of conversation (Labour waging a class war against Casino personally) last Sunday? Sod that for a game of soldiers, I'll come back tomorrow.
    Sorry, you’re quitting PB for the day because it is repeating an argument we had about a week ago? PB often repeats the same arguments eight times in a morning
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,375
    Good morning fellow voters?
    As a sometimes LibDem voter I’m always relieved that the problems of the last 14 years are blamed on the Conservatives, when during the first five of those years we had a Conservative-LibDem Coalition.
    Indeed the only time the LibDems get any criticism for those years is when the Post Office scandal is discussed!
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,202
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    You address this to lefties but surely it is righties who have reduced the country to this bloody mess in the last 14 years they have been running the show.
    All of a sudden the supposed emigration, which is happening right now we are told, is blamed on a Labour Government?

    Something very odd going on with the causality nexus of the space-time continuum.
    The debate isn't whether or not the Tories have failed utterly, on almost everything; that's pretty well a given at this point.
    It's about what happens next.

    Labour will quite rightly get a certain amount of political leeway to make mistakes. They're still going to be judged on outcomes, though.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,329
    DougSeal said:

    Betting markets are essentially statements of probability. They’re saying at the moment that if this election were run 11 times the Tories would win once in those 11. One in 11 chances happen. Indeed two of them happened in 2016.

    Market assessment of the probability is open to question though. The polling in the EU Ref up to it happening wildly varied from the probabilities implied by the market, and bettors took far too much attention to Farage’s apparent “concession”.

    It's a good point, but in fairness I recall that Trump's odds on election night were 3/1 (and I still have the pair of shoes it paid for). Earlier in the campaign - of course, the odds were better, but that's in the nature of a system where the field of candidates narrows.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,640
    Leon said:

    DM_Andy said:


    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    You address this to lefties but surely it is righties who have reduced the country to this bloody mess in the last 14 years they have been running the show.
    Fair. The Tories are equally to blame. Indeed MORE to blame in some ways - especially the isane immigration of the last 3 years. That’s entirely on them. That’s what they CHOSE

    So I agree and it why I’m not voting Tory

    Nonetheless as a society we need to ask these questions. Other countries are now competing hard for clever hard working people like @Casino_Royale who pays a LOT of tax. Why should he linger in Britain which does its best to sneer at him and say he a toxic white male?
    I'm getting a sense of deja vu, didn't we have the same topic of conversation (Labour waging a class war against Casino personally) last Sunday? Sod that for a game of soldiers, I'll come back tomorrow.
    Sorry, you’re quitting PB for the day because it is repeating an argument we had about a week ago? PB often repeats the same arguments eight times in a morning
    But to be fair those blanket 20mph limits in Wales are really annoying, and the trans issue is very important.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,138
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    DM_Andy said:


    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    You address this to lefties but surely it is righties who have reduced the country to this bloody mess in the last 14 years they have been running the show.
    Fair. The Tories are equally to blame. Indeed MORE to blame in some ways - especially the isane immigration of the last 3 years. That’s entirely on them. That’s what they CHOSE

    So I agree and it why I’m not voting Tory

    Nonetheless as a society we need to ask these questions. Other countries are now competing hard for clever hard working people like @Casino_Royale who pays a LOT of tax. Why should he linger in Britain which does its best to sneer at him and say he a toxic white male?
    I'm getting a sense of deja vu, didn't we have the same topic of conversation (Labour waging a class war against Casino personally) last Sunday? Sod that for a game of soldiers, I'll come back tomorrow.
    Sorry, you’re quitting PB for the day because it is repeating an argument we had about a week ago? PB often repeats the same arguments eight times in a morning
    But to be fair those blanket 20mph limits in Wales are really annoying, and the trans issue is very important.
    We haven’t done the cashless society for a while
  • Options
    MJWMJW Posts: 1,503

    EPG said:

    These dates were all before private school fees blew up on the doorsteps.

    Private school fees is no dementia tax.

    It predominately hits Tories.

    So thats all good.
    It is by definition the epitome of a niche issue. 7% of the nation's children go to private schools. Maybe a few more had some private schooling. Most people just don't care - not out of vindictiveness towards those affected but because it just doesn't affect them. It's smallest violin stuff.

    It just receives outsized attention because the limited number of people who are angry about it are some of the best connected people in the country, and in the media industry in particular.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,990
    I first came to PB because I had this idea that the markets would be better informed, whether by insider trading or otherwise, and could give you a better idea of the likely outcome than portentous pundits in their own echo chamber. I still think that has proven to be true, particularly in respect of outcomes I don't like where there is an inevitable temptation to read the pundits who share your view, but I am a lot less persuaded that they have any special insight.

    Fortunately, I have found a lot else on PB to amuse me.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,953
    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    You address this to lefties but surely it is righties who have reduced the country to this bloody mess in the last 14 years they have been running the show.
    All of a sudden the supposed emigration, which is happening right now we are told, is blamed on a Labour Government?

    Something very odd going on with the causality nexus of the space-time continuum.
    The debate isn't whether or not the Tories have failed utterly, on almost everything; that's pretty well a given at this point.
    It's about what happens next.

    Labour will quite rightly get a certain amount of political leeway to make mistakes. They're still going to be judged on outcomes, though.
    Absolutely right, your central point. I don't disagree at all. That's the debate we should have.

    Having said that, the debate on PB is actually partly on the former: for instance events happening *right now* are blamed on Labour policies. And the sort of whining we get from the right wingers that Labour will infallibly be a disaster isn't great given the current situation.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,863
    edited June 2

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    Hi Casino. I have mixed feelings re the private school issue and did use them for one of my children. I have been following your discussion and for clarity are you referring to just Income Tax and NI because I think you said you had a marginal rate of 62% which puts you in the taxable band of £100,000 - £125,000 (approx) but to pay the tax you have just quoted above, your marginal rate would have to be 47% (45 + 2) because you would have passed the 62% point.

    I agree with you that the current structure where the marginal rate goes up and down like a yo yo is bonkers (there is of course another one of these where the NI drops from 12% to 2% and others as well) I think the PA should go up each year and that the PA should be reclaimed from higher earners but it should be done in a smoother way so as not to deter people like you from working.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,559
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    Why is his ethnicity or sexuality important?

    I've come across people of all backgrounds and sexual preferences with similar attitudes to taxation as CR. Look at Malcolm; he's Scottish.
    There’s a special clause in the Barnet Formula to subsidise shortening pockets for those with short arms.
  • Options
    hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 643
    Roger said:

    EPG said:

    These dates were all before private school fees blew up on the doorsteps.

    Have we done this poll?

    Would it be a good thing or a bad thing if some private schools have to close because they cannot afford to operate if their VAT tax breaks are withdrawn? The public are divided:

    Good thing: 25%
    Bad thing: 28%
    Neither: 29%


    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1796569827886154153
    I'm amazed that a question phrased like that only had 28% support. Is it a good thing or a bad thing if ANYTHING couldn't afford to operate anymore because their tax breaks were being withdrawn? We're a compassionate nation. We don't like people being forced into penury. Had it asked "Should private schooling lose their tax breaks" I suggest you'd have a very different answer

    I think Labour will ultimately drop this policy or amend it dramatically. Reasons are in my mind as follows.

    1. It upsets a few people a lot but the majority dont really care
    2. It breaks EC law (kids education should not be taxed)
    3. It wont raise a lot of money. (Many people will put their kids school through their company and claim back the VAT)
    4. Some schools will close and this will look terrible in the press
    5. There are technical difficulties with this.

    In the UK, the provision of education by an “eligible body” is an “exempt” supply for VAT purposes. This means that goods and services that are closely related to education are also exempt from VAT, such as catering, transport, school trips, and boarding accommodation. So lets say an Oxford College such as New College also runs a choir school. Would it be an eligible or non eligible body?





  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    NEW: @faizashaheen tells me she's considering standing in Chingford as an independent. She says she wants to do it "for the right reasons."

    https://x.com/lewis_goodall/status/1797213249764557027?s=61

    One presumes those reasons are ego, attention seeking and a sense of entitlement. Would be mildly positive news for IDS.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,640

    Good morning fellow voters?
    As a sometimes LibDem voter I’m always relieved that the problems of the last 14 years are blamed on the Conservatives, when during the first five of those years we had a Conservative-LibDem Coalition.
    Indeed the only time the LibDems get any criticism for those years is when the Post Office scandal is discussed!

    The one other standout error of the coalition years was a sharp fiscal tightening during a period of very low interest rates when the opposite policy in the US catapulted them to much higher growth. But that wasn’t primarily Lib Dem policy: the LDs had the least austerity in any of the 3 main manifestos and the final cuts were somewhat less than either the Labour or Tory plans.

    The rest of the crap all happened post-2015.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,042

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    You address this to lefties but surely it is righties who have reduced the country to this bloody mess in the last 14 years they have been running the show.
    Fair. The Tories are equally to blame. Indeed MORE to blame in some ways - especially the isane immigration of the last 3 years. That’s entirely on them. That’s what they CHOSE

    So I agree and it why I’m not voting Tory

    Nonetheless as a society we need to ask these questions. Other countries are now competing hard for clever hard working people like @Casino_Royale who pays a LOT of tax. Why should he linger in Britain which does its best to sneer at him and say he a toxic white male?
    I am so old I remember when that Sean Thomas used to encourage traitorous Remainers to emigrate.

    Said we could cope without their taxes.
    Whatever happened to him?
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,059
    ToryJim said:

    I think this has to win the award for cringiest election social media.

    https://x.com/kane_blackwell/status/1797194112593973755?s=61

    Why do they do this? Why!?

    It’s tough finding a demographic inclined to support you when you’re the Tory candidate for Stratford and Bow. Abba fans is as good as any other.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,953
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    DM_Andy said:


    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    You address this to lefties but surely it is righties who have reduced the country to this bloody mess in the last 14 years they have been running the show.
    Fair. The Tories are equally to blame. Indeed MORE to blame in some ways - especially the isane immigration of the last 3 years. That’s entirely on them. That’s what they CHOSE

    So I agree and it why I’m not voting Tory

    Nonetheless as a society we need to ask these questions. Other countries are now competing hard for clever hard working people like @Casino_Royale who pays a LOT of tax. Why should he linger in Britain which does its best to sneer at him and say he a toxic white male?
    I'm getting a sense of deja vu, didn't we have the same topic of conversation (Labour waging a class war against Casino personally) last Sunday? Sod that for a game of soldiers, I'll come back tomorrow.
    Sorry, you’re quitting PB for the day because it is repeating an argument we had about a week ago? PB often repeats the same arguments eight times in a morning
    But to be fair those blanket 20mph limits in Wales are really annoying, and the trans issue is very important.
    Those speed limits really do affect life in Hartlepool, it seems. Though there is some merit in considering the Welsh railway network and the relative paucity of services between the north and the south - oh, sorry, not that kind, you say?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,559
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    DM_Andy said:


    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    You address this to lefties but surely it is righties who have reduced the country to this bloody mess in the last 14 years they have been running the show.
    Fair. The Tories are equally to blame. Indeed MORE to blame in some ways - especially the isane immigration of the last 3 years. That’s entirely on them. That’s what they CHOSE

    So I agree and it why I’m not voting Tory

    Nonetheless as a society we need to ask these questions. Other countries are now competing hard for clever hard working people like @Casino_Royale who pays a LOT of tax. Why should he linger in Britain which does its best to sneer at him and say he a toxic white male?
    I'm getting a sense of deja vu, didn't we have the same topic of conversation (Labour waging a class war against Casino personally) last Sunday? Sod that for a game of soldiers, I'll come back tomorrow.
    Sorry, you’re quitting PB for the day because it is repeating an argument we had about a week ago? PB often repeats the same arguments eight times in a morning
    But to be fair those blanket 20mph limits in Wales are really annoying, and the trans issue is very important.
    We haven’t done the cashless society for a while
    What happens if someone tries to pay their school fees by paying cash to the Chinese branch of the same school?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,138
    edited June 2
    Heart of stone. Laughter. Etc


    “Yvette Cooper refuses to rule out sending asylum seekers overseas if Labour win general election –
    Shadow home secretary says Labour would examine ‘offshore processing arrangements’”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/jun/02/starmer-sunak-migration-general-election-uk-politics-live-2-june

    I predicted EXACTLY THIS a few weeks ago. I said in the end Starmer will do a version of Rwanda because it is the only humane solution that might work. Labour will just tweak it and pretend it is something else

    Hilarious
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,059
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    DM_Andy said:


    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    You address this to lefties but surely it is righties who have reduced the country to this bloody mess in the last 14 years they have been running the show.
    Fair. The Tories are equally to blame. Indeed MORE to blame in some ways - especially the isane immigration of the last 3 years. That’s entirely on them. That’s what they CHOSE

    So I agree and it why I’m not voting Tory

    Nonetheless as a society we need to ask these questions. Other countries are now competing hard for clever hard working people like @Casino_Royale who pays a LOT of tax. Why should he linger in Britain which does its best to sneer at him and say he a toxic white male?
    I'm getting a sense of deja vu, didn't we have the same topic of conversation (Labour waging a class war against Casino personally) last Sunday? Sod that for a game of soldiers, I'll come back tomorrow.
    Sorry, you’re quitting PB for the day because it is repeating an argument we had about a week ago? PB often repeats the same arguments eight times in a morning
    But to be fair those blanket 20mph limits in Wales are really annoying, and the trans issue is very important.
    Brexit and AV are also under-explored topics here.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,953

    Roger said:

    EPG said:

    These dates were all before private school fees blew up on the doorsteps.

    Have we done this poll?

    Would it be a good thing or a bad thing if some private schools have to close because they cannot afford to operate if their VAT tax breaks are withdrawn? The public are divided:

    Good thing: 25%
    Bad thing: 28%
    Neither: 29%


    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1796569827886154153
    I'm amazed that a question phrased like that only had 28% support. Is it a good thing or a bad thing if ANYTHING couldn't afford to operate anymore because their tax breaks were being withdrawn? We're a compassionate nation. We don't like people being forced into penury. Had it asked "Should private schooling lose their tax breaks" I suggest you'd have a very different answer

    I think Labour will ultimately drop this policy or amend it dramatically. Reasons are in my mind as follows.

    1. It upsets a few people a lot but the majority dont really care
    2. It breaks EC law (kids education should not be taxed)
    3. It wont raise a lot of money. (Many people will put their kids school through their company and claim back the VAT)
    4. Some schools will close and this will look terrible in the press
    5. There are technical difficulties with this.

    In the UK, the provision of education by an “eligible body” is an “exempt” supply for VAT purposes. This means that goods and services that are closely related to education are also exempt from VAT, such as catering, transport, school trips, and boarding accommodation. So lets say an Oxford College such as New College also runs a choir school. Would it be an eligible or non eligible body?





    Four, at least, I would think. Different aims, so different charities. And you need to separate the commerical operating body (e.g. summer schools, conference accommodation) from the charity.
  • Options
    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,057
    VAT on private schools - why is it a bad thing? The state is very short of funds to pay the public services we need. Fact is, taxes need to go up. So now the question is, what taxes need to go up? Simples really…
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,356
    @Savanta_UK
    🚨NEW Best PM rating

    📈Starmer's biggest lead over Sunak ever in Savanta polling

    🌹Starmer 44% (+4)
    🌳Sunak 30% (-1)
    ◻️Don't know 27% (-2)

    2,239 UK adults, 24-28 May

    (Changes from 17-19 May)

    @DPJHodges

    I was told “Isaac Levido sees this election as a courts case. Opening arguments. Present case. Closing arguments”. Before opening arguments the voters were leaning 9-3 towards sending the Tories to the chair. After opening arguments it’s now 11-1.
This discussion has been closed.