Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
I'll believe that when I see it.
I'm not sure I'll believe it even then.
It wouldn’t be a huge surprise given their last poll. You just need some movement from Reform and a small drop in Labours share .
I mean that I'd need to show up in multiple polls to believe it.
I genuinely think pollsters have a real problem this time - the electorate want to decisively eject the Tories but also not grant Labour a totally open goal.
I think it's perhaps slightly more fluid than we think.
It's the old problem - we each only get one vote.
If I definitely want a change but don't want to give Labour a 100+ landslide, and I am in a marginal, what do I do?
Labour 46% (+1) Conservative 23% (–) Reform UK 13% (+1) Lib Dem 9% (-1) Green 5% (–) SNP 3% (+1) Other 3% (+2)
R&W
Labour +1, sample size: 12000. Cross tabs will be interesting.
How do the Tories get themselves up to 30% and avoid total disaster?
I’m convinced they will poll over 30% as there’s more bungs coming to their core vote . Some movement from reform , and DKs should see them get there .
You may be right.
However, to keep this factual, they polled 30.7% in 1997. On almost any metric the last 5 years have been worse, and the Party less popular, this time than in 1992-7 and in opinion polling they are currently 6-9% below where they were in the equivalent period. And there’s a Reform squeeze issue this time too.
So how exactly they’re going to beat their 1997 share at this stage I don’t readily see?
Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
I have a certaind degree of confidence building in my Labour 38%, Con 33% prediction...
Hearing via several Con MPs that the response out there is nowhere near as bad as the 20% Labour leads.
I'm still at 39 30 or thereabouts. Con may struggle to get to 30 but I'm pretty confident Labour are massively overstated in polling generally atm
Why do you think Labour leads are overstated?
They are the default 'not happy' response as opposition, Labour % is usually overstated in polling when they are 'flying', they are not getting 'personal' ratings commensurate with mid 40s, the LE results, local by elections, the london mayoralty figures
Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
I'll believe that when I see it.
I'm not sure I'll believe it even then.
It wouldn’t be a huge surprise given their last poll. You just need some movement from Reform and a small drop in Labours share .
I mean that I'd need to show up in multiple polls to believe it.
I genuinely think pollsters have a real problem this time - the electorate want to decisively eject the Tories but also not grant Labour a totally open goal.
I think it's perhaps slightly more fluid than we think.
It's the old problem - we each only get one vote.
If I definitely want a change but don't want to give Labour a 100+ landslide, and I am in a marginal, what do I do?
Vote Labour ! If too many worry about a landslide you could end up traumatized when the exit poll comes out .
00:00 Intro 04:50 Would you pass the Eton entry exam today? 06:36 Parental heritage and upbringing 11:25 In simple terms what was good and bad about the British Empire 13:29 Why has the British Empire taken such a hold on the right wing psyche 19:33 Rory and Kwasi weren't popular at Eton 21:05 What are the pros of Liz Truss? 23:58 How Boris Johnson's premiership started good but lost its way 28:18 Why did you want a career in politics? 33:08 Would you give advice to Rachel Reeves? 36:32 Thoughts on Keir Starmer going more left and now being more right 40:41 Why there has to be an element of populism in the Conservative Party 41:46 Talk us through ethnicity in British Politics 45:23 Do you think the Rwanda plan is working? 46:25 Net Zero climate goals and how can we financially make it 49:46 Importance of not being so reliant on China 51:15 Rory and Kwasi entered parliament at the same time but had different experiences, one is a romantic and the other a realist 1:00:06 What was a bigger mistake, backing Liz Truss or backing Boris Johnson? 1:00:55 Did you not have an operation to become Prime Minister? 1:02:45 Role as Chancellor - the pace was absurd and it moved 150 mph 1:22:14 Why didn't you support Rishi Sunak? 1:23:48 Can you see a way that Labour won't win at the next General Election? 1:30:30 Who are the historians that have impacted you? 1:36:54 Do you believe in virtue? 1:38:23 Outro 1:39:27 Debrief
I haven't listened to it, but "13:29 Why has the British Empire taken such a hold on the right wing psyche" could also be phrased as: "13:29 Why has the British Empire taken such a hold on the left wing psyche," given how some seem to put all the world's ills onto the British empire.
It'll be interesting to listen to see who asked the question...
Otherwise, it looks like an interesting set of questions. I despise Campbell, but even a sh*t can enlighten at times. As long as you remember he's a sh*t...
Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
I'll believe that when I see it.
I'm not sure I'll believe it even then.
It wouldn’t be a huge surprise given their last poll. You just need some movement from Reform and a small drop in Labours share .
I mean that I'd need to show up in multiple polls to believe it.
I genuinely think pollsters have a real problem this time - the electorate want to decisively eject the Tories but also not grant Labour a totally open goal.
I think it's perhaps slightly more fluid than we think.
It's the old problem - we each only get one vote.
If I definitely want a change but don't want to give Labour a 100+ landslide, and I am in a marginal, what do I do?
Bear in mind that, if the Tories have any sense, they'll launch a full-scale assault on Labour in the last 3 weeks on tax and spend: pension freedoms/allowances, ISAs, council tax and inheritance tax allowances that might be for the chop etc.
Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
Their most recent poll on 2nd-5th May was Lab 41%, Con 26%, Ref 13%, LD11%. I can just about see how that might change to something like Lab 38%, Con 29%.
Way out of line with other pollsters. Do they have much of a track record?
I believe they're fairly new, the chap running it used to run polling for the government?
They ran some very questionable polling making constituency conclusions from four or five focus groups.
A betting op! Put the house the car and the yacht on Labour!
There are currently 650 Parliamentary constituencies in the UK. Fully 48% (310) had already reached the gerontocratic [defined as 55+] midpoint in 2020, with more than 50% of the weighted vote share in each having gone grey.13 By the next election, [Now] we will certainly have reached the point where the majority of constituencies have gone grey.
Strength of support/opposition in the YouGov poll is also interesting though. In all age groups, including the over 65s, those who "somewhat" support the idea are greater than those who "strongly" support it.
Whereas the opposite is also true for opponents of all age groups: if you oppose it, you're more likely to "strongly" oppose it.
So it might not move the needle in terms of attracting supporters to vote Conservative as much as it does getting opponents of the policy to vote for other parties.
Labour 46% (+1) Conservative 23% (–) Reform UK 13% (+1) Lib Dem 9% (-1) Green 5% (–) SNP 3% (+1) Other 3% (+2)
R&W
Labour +1, sample size: 12000. Cross tabs will be interesting.
How do the Tories get themselves up to 30% and avoid total disaster?
I’m convinced they will poll over 30% as there’s more bungs coming to their core vote . Some movement from reform , and DKs should see them get there .
You may be right.
However, to keep this factual, they polled 30.7% in 1997. On almost any metric the last 5 years have been worse, and the Party less popular, this time than in 1992-7 and in opinion polling they are currently 6-9% below where they were in the equivalent period. And there’s a Reform squeeze issue this time too.
So how exactly they’re going to beat their 1997 share at this stage I don’t readily see?
Because neither Labour nor the LDs are the parties they were in 97 either
I think BatteryCorrectHorse is probably right about seats like Basingstoke going to Labour. Another one might be the new Earley and Woodley seat which is just outside Reading.
Yes, agree with that think the seat profile is critical. That one and some of the Sussex coastal seats. And Reading decisively.
Closer to London, in the posh commuter belt in Surrey, it will get quite Lib Demmy.
I think seats like Portsmouth North and the IoW will stay Tory.
Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
I have a certaind degree of confidence building in my Labour 38%, Con 33% prediction...
Hearing via several Con MPs that the response out there is nowhere near as bad as the 20% Labour leads.
I'm still at 39 30 or thereabouts. Con may struggle to get to 30 but I'm pretty confident Labour are massively overstated in polling generally atm
Why do you think Labour leads are overstated?
They are the default 'not happy' response as opposition, Labour % is usually overstated in polling when they are 'flying', they are not getting 'personal' ratings commensurate with mid 40s, the LE results, local by elections, the london mayoralty figures
According to Electoral Calculus they are due to increase from eight to 44 seats ffs! Where does that come from/how does that work??!
Errr, the LDs got 11 seats at the last General Election.
R U sure.
I am.
But I understand the difference is due to boundary changes. On new boundaries, the LDs only got 8 seats.
Correct, boundary changes always seem to screw up Lib Dems as they tend to be pockets of yellow in a blue or red sea. The ward just outside the Lib Dem constituency doesn't get worked at all because every Lib Dem activist in a 40 mile radius is camped in the target seat. It appears like the Lib Dem seat is taking in a massively anti-LD ward or losing a massively LD ward and so the notional winner changes.
Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
I have a certaind degree of confidence building in my Labour 38%, Con 33% prediction...
Hearing via several Con MPs that the response out there is nowhere near as bad as the 20% Labour leads.
I'm still at 39 30 or thereabouts. Con may struggle to get to 30 but I'm pretty confident Labour are massively overstated in polling generally atm
Why do you think Labour leads are overstated?
They are the default 'not happy' response as opposition, Labour % is usually overstated in polling when they are 'flying', they are not getting 'personal' ratings commensurate with mid 40s, the LE results, local by elections, the london mayoralty figures
That's quite a compelling argument.
I might chuck a few quid on NOM.
I've laid NOM at 1.12 a bit because I think that's just too low at this stage in the campaign.
Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
I have a certaind degree of confidence building in my Labour 38%, Con 33% prediction...
Hearing via several Con MPs that the response out there is nowhere near as bad as the 20% Labour leads.
I'm still at 39 30 or thereabouts. Con may struggle to get to 30 but I'm pretty confident Labour are massively overstated in polling generally atm
Why do you think Labour leads are overstated?
They are the default 'not happy' response as opposition, Labour % is usually overstated in polling when they are 'flying', they are not getting 'personal' ratings commensurate with mid 40s, the LE results, local by elections, the london mayoralty figures
That's quite a compelling argument.
I might chuck a few quid on NOM.
I'm predicting high double figures majority Labour, I'd be gobsmacked if they fail to get a majority
I am instinctively very cautious about a Labour win as I think many of us are. It just doesn't feel like it will happen. I am trying not to let that or over-confidence make me lose in the betting.
My central forecast remains Labour largest party, around 300-310 seats, up to Labour 370 seats.
Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
I have a certaind degree of confidence building in my Labour 38%, Con 33% prediction...
Hearing via several Con MPs that the response out there is nowhere near as bad as the 20% Labour leads.
I'm still at 39 30 or thereabouts. Con may struggle to get to 30 but I'm pretty confident Labour are massively overstated in polling generally atm
Why do you think Labour leads are overstated?
They are the default 'not happy' response as opposition, Labour % is usually overstated in polling when they are 'flying', they are not getting 'personal' ratings commensurate with mid 40s, the LE results, local by elections, the london mayoralty figures
That's quite a compelling argument.
I might chuck a few quid on NOM.
I'm predicting high double figures majority Labour, I'd be gobsmacked if they fail to get a majority
Well there's the argument that Labour doesn't need a large winning voteshare anyhow because of the efficiency of their vote. But I am not as convinced by this argument as some others.
I think most of us were expecting the gap to narrow but what if it…. doesn’t?
Some time to go yet, but the idea that “a campaign will focus minds” doesn’t seem to have been true, at least yet.
At some stage we are either going to have to make a call that either a) the polls are wrong and overstating the Labour lead as it was for much of the time in 1997/2001 or b) the polls are right and… well, the Tories are properly stuffed aren’t they?
On one hand I want to see the Tories destroyed on the other it’s not good for democracy if a party has a massive majority.
I live in hope that one day we’ll get PR and then voters can just vote for whoever they like .
Would it be that 'bad for democracy'? That is, to have a total womping over a standard issue landslide. In both cases Labour has more or less free rein. Just in the case of a womping for the Tories they end up in a not undeserved competition for their future. They might even end up being replaced by a party who promotes PR or doing so themselves if do so badly it's existential.
If, and it's still a big if, the result is at the Keir Starmer's genie end of the spectrum there'll be plenty of stabilising corrections. Parts of the left that don't like him will feel freer to go off to the Greens or FBPE the Lib Dems.
It always works itself out. The main thing I want to see is the party that's caused so much chaos and misery taught a lesson they won't ever forget. Though they probably end up in a 1997 or Lab 2019 position where recovery their doesn't take nearly long enough.
Whilst I sympathise with the desire for parties that screw up to have extreme electoral vengeance visited upon them I think you have to be careful about it. Next to not getting what you wished for the saddest thing is getting it.
Arguably the Tories travails began with the glee with which they contemplated Corbyn being elected Labour leader. They got their desire and eventually the large majority they felt it would gift them but it did so without them having to do any of the hard work of working out the new electoral geography or coming to terms with changes in demography. The consequences could be near fatal.
Labour winning in such a way that they are unchallenged for a decade would be bad news particularly for the Labour Party.
I agree parties need challenging, but I don't see a huge FPTP-inflated majority as precluding that. It'll probably light a fire under Labour's rival parties on the left-liberal side of politics, and may even see a split in Lab, for example.
Functionally, it's not too different to having a sizeable majority - except perhaps on select committees. Though of course it isn't without problems.
Point being, it maybe worth those problems to ensure the Conservatives either change or die, rather than have a dominant Labour up against a hopeless Tory Party singing its same old discredited tunes.
I've just been (sent) down to the WI Hall to fix the toilet. Apparently copious intake of Jam and Jerusalem wreaks havoc on the plumbing. It was a real up-to-the-elbow horror show to unblock it.
Vibe check from the undead right wing hags...
They like the Sunk Volksturm policy. I knew this was good politics.
SKS is going to bring Corbo into government. No idea where this came from. Maybe GBN.
Something about how SKS is going to tax houses. No, me neither.
Most amazingly, one particularly withered specimen with hair lacquered into the shape of a Stahlhelm insisted the current massive wave of immigration is the responsibility of Labour. "They approved it."
Conclusion: the more nutty and superannuated vote is drifting back from Fukker to tory. They loathe but mainly fear SKS.
Today's We Think has Lab lead up 2 at 25 SKS landslide
Guido's confirmed a positive poll for the Tories
It shows Massive Johnson would be doing even worse?
Positive from the Tories' perspective then. Small blue lead?
Over whom?
Everyone else? Like, leading the polls? Certainly the rumour that Guido’s presenting
I am not seeing that on the Guido Twitter feed, just the report of a rumour there is a positive poll for the Tories. But maybe I am not picking all the Tweets up. Anyway, Survation would see to be the obvious contender as it had Labour on 48 last week with the Greens on 2, so that looked like a significant outlier and Labour's number is almost certain to go down. If ythat is accompanied by a rise in the Tory number, it would certainly be interesting.
Must R&W and/or JL Partners.
JL Partners is the most Tory-leaning of the pack at the moment, their last poll had Labour on 41%, Conservatives on 26% and Reform on 13% so maybe Con+Ref>Lab?
Con 29%, Reform 10% or something similar would be my expectation. That doesn't actually help the tories as much as they hope though
My guess is some people vote Tory with the biggest clothes peg on their nose in history, just to ensure Labour don't have a landslide with zero opposition.
It's going to take a lot of people doing that to solve the tory party problem - I can't see that many people willing to vote with a clothes peg on their nose...
I agree, I think this is quite a niche, political nerd position to take (I support it - in purely tactical terms I'd be more tempted to vote Tory this time than in any election I've voted in). It also presumes that the people who are doing this are in a sufficiently up-for-grabs constituency.
Nevertheless I think it could have an effect - especially as taking the position CR suggests can function as an updated version of shy Toryism: Yes, I know on all rational measures this is a bunch of incompetent fuckwits who will decimate this country if they keep the reins of power, but my gut still tells me that they're my sort of incompetent fuckwit and it's my duty to vote with my gut rather than let loose the rabid badger that is the Labour party.
It's approximately how I felt about the Greens for a few years.
I think most of us were expecting the gap to narrow but what if it…. doesn’t?
Some time to go yet, but the idea that “a campaign will focus minds” doesn’t seem to have been true, at least yet.
At some stage we are either going to have to make a call that either a) the polls are wrong and overstating the Labour lead as it was for much of the time in 1997/2001 or b) the polls are right and… well, the Tories are properly stuffed aren’t they?
Yes. Current polls regularly (like today) Baxter to the Tories getting 60-70 seats. On the face of it no-one on PB or in the general media world is discussing that sort of outcome with anything other than theoretical interest. Including me. What happens if and when (a) this starts getting widely discussed and (b) when it actually happens and we suddenly find that almost all well known Tories become unpersoned overnight and all sorts of Labour volk who stood to make up the numbers in Toryland St Hogwarts with Huish Episcopi are having to nip to M&S to buy a suit and a tie/women's powersuit?
It could be bollocks. Or it could be someone's got confused through Chinese whispers.
Maybe it's a single poll lead for Labour for the over 65s.
If you say standard MOE is +/- three percent and 1 in 20 polls are an outlier...
A "true" lead of fifteen ought to give a lead of nine from time to time (3 off one, 3 on the other closes the lead by six). Question is really whether the true lead is as small as that.
Labour 46% (+1) Conservative 23% (–) Reform UK 13% (+1) Lib Dem 9% (-1) Green 5% (–) SNP 3% (+1) Other 3% (+2)
R&W
Labour +1, sample size: 12000. Cross tabs will be interesting.
How do the Tories get themselves up to 30% and avoid total disaster?
I’m convinced they will poll over 30% as there’s more bungs coming to their core vote . Some movement from reform , and DKs should see them get there .
You may be right.
However, to keep this factual, they polled 30.7% in 1997. On almost any metric the last 5 years have been worse, and the Party less popular, this time than in 1992-7 and in opinion polling they are currently 6-9% below where they were in the equivalent period. And there’s a Reform squeeze issue this time too.
So how exactly they’re going to beat their 1997 share at this stage I don’t readily see?
Because neither Labour nor the LDs are the parties they were in 97 either
But that’s not really very empirical. I agree that Labour aren’t polling as highly right now as in the run-up to 1997 but the overall stats don’t support the notion that the Conservatives are in the right place to exceed their 1997 vote share. They might, and I’m not saying they won’t, I’m just pointing to the data.
There was actually a swing away from the LibDems in 1997 of 1%
Also a helpful reminder that in 1997 the Labour Party polled 43.2%
Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
I have a certaind degree of confidence building in my Labour 38%, Con 33% prediction...
Hearing via several Con MPs that the response out there is nowhere near as bad as the 20% Labour leads.
I'm still at 39 30 or thereabouts. Con may struggle to get to 30 but I'm pretty confident Labour are massively overstated in polling generally atm
Why do you think Labour leads are overstated?
They are the default 'not happy' response as opposition, Labour % is usually overstated in polling when they are 'flying', they are not getting 'personal' ratings commensurate with mid 40s, the LE results, local by elections, the london mayoralty figures
That's quite a compelling argument.
I might chuck a few quid on NOM.
I've laid NOM at 1.12 a bit because I think that's just too low at this stage in the campaign.
Labour 46% (+1) Conservative 23% (–) Reform UK 13% (+1) Lib Dem 9% (-1) Green 5% (–) SNP 3% (+1) Other 3% (+2)
R&W
Labour +1, sample size: 12000. Cross tabs will be interesting.
How do the Tories get themselves up to 30% and avoid total disaster?
I’m convinced they will poll over 30% as there’s more bungs coming to their core vote . Some movement from reform , and DKs should see them get there .
You may be right.
However, to keep this factual, they polled 30.7% in 1997. On almost any metric the last 5 years have been worse, and the Party less popular, this time than in 1992-7 and in opinion polling they are currently 6-9% below where they were in the equivalent period. And there’s a Reform squeeze issue this time too.
So how exactly they’re going to beat their 1997 share at this stage I don’t readily see?
Because neither Labour nor the LDs are the parties they were in 97 either
But that’s not really very empirical. I agree that Labour aren’t polling as highly right now as in the run-up to 1997 but the overall stats don’t support the notion that the Conservatives are in the right place to exceed their 1997 vote share. They might, and I’m not saying they won’t, I’m just pointing to the data.
There was actually a swing away from the LibDems in 1997 of 1%
Also a helpful reminder that in 1997 the Labour Party polled 43.2%
Their relative 'meh'ness will suppress their vote, Tories will match 97 % with fewer votes. This is 2001 not 1997 in nature I think
I think BatteryCorrectHorse is probably right about seats like Basingstoke going to Labour. Another one might be the new Earley and Woodley seat which is just outside Reading.
Here in Basingstoke, Labour have opened a campaign office in the town centre and feels pretty visible as a campaign at the moment. Never seen an Lab campaign office before in previous GEs. No sightings of any Tory campaign or Maria Miller yet.
So it wasn't Con+Ref>Lab but it is Con+Ref=Lab which is psychologically important and can make CCHQ happy. Now the message can be to Farage and Reform "Give us your votes and we can stop the socialists taking over." It's a good message to campaign on.
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
All MoE stuff. I originally thought 40/30, the disastrous start to the campaign I thought no chance, maybe the Tories do squeeze it out enough with some more quadruple lock-age type policies for the olds e.g. IHT threshold rise.
Still good chance the Tories post their worst % score in modern history.
Not quite as Earth shattering as I’d been led to believe
Stats wise it's the highest Tory VI since February and equal lowest Labour this year and lowest lead since February. Fieldwork Friday and Saturday so mainly before the Natty Serves (which YouGov tell us is 47-45 in favour in their poll conducted today) and super mega crusty lock
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 1m Understand Angela Rayner claiming she's been cleared by HMRC after investigation at her request. Fine. All she needs to do is publish the full communication to that effect to her from HMRC.
And the original documentation to be submitted for forensic analysis.
And her bank sort code and account number so that we can each individually access it to check the details.
That's margin of error movement - the fact the Tories are celebrating that is worrying (for them)...
Not just that- it's still a blooming awful score for the Conservatives. A single figure gap would have, perhaps, been game on. Twelve points behind isn't.
They still need something to happen, and the first week hasn't provided that something.
All MoE stuff. I originally thought 40/30, the disastrous campaign I thought no chance, maybe the Tories do squeeze it out enough with some more quadruple lock-age type policies for the olds e.g. IHT threshold rise.
Their campaign isn’t disastrous, it’s unconventional. It doesn’t look good on TV because it doesn’t have to. It just has to stir things up in the socials and get out the vote. Quite successful I reckon.
All MoE stuff. I originally thought 40/30, the disastrous start to the campaign I thought no chance, maybe the Tories do squeeze it out enough with some more quadruple lock-age type policies for the olds e.g. IHT threshold rise.
Still good chance the Tories post their worst % score in modern history.
They should be bold and propose abolishing NI and shift the burden further up the income/wealth scale. I'd also raise personal allowances for all - which would be consistent with their earlier commitment of no one on the state pension paying tax.
That's margin of error movement - the fact the Tories are celebrating that is worrying (for them)...
But if maintained for the next 5 weeks....Labour are stuffed.
So you’re ignoring the other two polls out this afternoon including the 12,000 sample one? One of them had a 1% increase in Labour’s lead and the other a 2% increase.
If maintained for the next 5 weeks … the Conservatives are … oh wait. They already are.
All MoE stuff. I originally thought 40/30, the disastrous campaign I thought no chance, maybe the Tories do squeeze it out enough with some more quadruple lock-age type policies for the olds e.g. IHT threshold rise.
Their campaign isn’t disastrous, it’s unconventional. It doesn’t look good on TV because it doesn’t have to. It just has to stir things up in the socials and get out the vote. Quite successful I reckon.
They’re playing electoral Bazball.
Not sure I would call the weird announcement in the rain, no campaign video ready to go, nor loads of the candidates signed up, Bazball of campaigning.....
Bazball is actually incredibly well planned, it is just the normal commentators don't understand. It is just going against the norm in always going for the higher risk / higher reward strategy, but they have thought through all the decisions in a lot of detail.
In an ideal world you would have Lab in power with just sufficient rein on their ability to do bonkers things. The Cons must go but, like all (former and, like me) ex-Cons voters I am deeply nervous of Lab because they don't like me. And I don't trust them not to be vindictive about it.
I mean all's fair in love and war but I wouldn't mind a gentle hand of restraint on any more bonkers policies.
So polls narrowing to the point whereby enough people vote Lab but not too many would suit me perfectly.
Can't see it happening, that said - I can see no redeeming element of the Cons that would make someone march up to the polling booth and think - they're the party for me.
@Dura's mini-sample will always exist and good luck to rural WIs everywhere. But they, and the politicians who pander to them, shouldn't be running the country.
That's margin of error movement - the fact the Tories are celebrating that is worrying (for them)...
But if maintained for the next 5 weeks....Labour are stuffed.
If JLP are right anyway. They’re a new player and their only three polls have been 18, 15 and 12 point Labour leads respectively. If you extrapolate that it’s a Tory landslide. But they don’t have a track record and that is not reflected by any of the other companies.
All MoE stuff. I originally thought 40/30, the disastrous campaign I thought no chance, maybe the Tories do squeeze it out enough with some more quadruple lock-age type policies for the olds e.g. IHT threshold rise.
Their campaign isn’t disastrous, it’s unconventional. It doesn’t look good on TV because it doesn’t have to. It just has to stir things up in the socials and get out the vote. Quite successful I reckon.
They’re playing electoral Bazball.
Not sure I would call the weird announcement in the rain, no campaign video ready to go, nor loads of the candidates signed up, Bazball of campaigning.....
Bazball is actually incredibly well planned, it is just going against the norm in always going for the higher risk / higher reward strategy.
I think I might take a little step back from this site for a bit. It’s getting just a trifle silly when respected posters are leaping on 1% or 2% movements either way, especially when in the process they are breaking Mike Smithson’s Golden Rule.
All MoE stuff. I originally thought 40/30, the disastrous campaign I thought no chance, maybe the Tories do squeeze it out enough with some more quadruple lock-age type policies for the olds e.g. IHT threshold rise.
Their campaign isn’t disastrous, it’s unconventional. It doesn’t look good on TV because it doesn’t have to. It just has to stir things up in the socials and get out the vote. Quite successful I reckon.
They’re playing electoral Bazball.
Not sure I would call the weird announcement in the rain, no campaign video ready to go, nor loads of the candidates signed up, Bazball of campaigning.....
Bazball is actually incredibly well planned, it is just going against the norm in always going for the higher risk / higher reward strategy.
Did you see England play at the recent World Cup?
Nobody cares at 50 over cricket. The ECB have said themselves, not at all a priority and will very rarely play any games. Bazza is about winning Test, hence why Mott is the coach of ODIs.
All the insiders say that outside of a couple of teams in IPL, England Test and T20 have the best analytics in the game. That is all the focus. ODI they don't give a monkey about. However in T20, lots of other countries have caught up now and the margins are so thin not a given that it doesn't go well next month.
So it wasn't Con+Ref>Lab but it is Con+Ref=Lab which is psychologically important and can make CCHQ happy. Now the message can be to Farage and Reform "Give us your votes and we can stop the socialists taking over." It's a good message to campaign on.
Yes. 'Vote Reform, get Labour. Vote Tory get hanging for sheep stealing'. Should work all right.
I think I might take a little step back from this site for a bit. It’s getting just a trifle silly when respected posters are leaping on 1% or 2% movements either way, especially when in the process they are breaking Mike Smithson’s Golden Rule.
The fact is that so far nothing has happened.
Which Golden Rule is that?
That the worst poll for Labour is the accurate one (broken: 2017).
That's margin of error movement - the fact the Tories are celebrating that is worrying (for them)...
But if maintained for the next 5 weeks....Labour are stuffed.
If JLP are right anyway. They’re a new player and their only three polls have been 18, 15 and 12 point Labour leads respectively. If you extrapolate that it’s a Tory landslide. But they don’t have a track record and that is not reflected by any of the other companies.
It's generally in line with Opinium, Savanta, More In Common and BMG, all of whom adjust or force choice
So it wasn't Con+Ref>Lab but it is Con+Ref=Lab which is psychologically important and can make CCHQ happy. Now the message can be to Farage and Reform "Give us your votes and we can stop the socialists taking over." It's a good message to campaign on.
Yes. 'Vote Reform, get Labour. Vote Tory get hanging for sheep stealing'. Should work all right.
Except only 20% of the Reform vote is ex Tory - most are ex Brexit and if they didn't vote for Bozo to get Brexit done they aren't voting for this Tory party.
Comments
You have to just take your best punt.
But I understand the difference is due to boundary changes. On new boundaries, the LDs only got 8 seats.
NEW: Scottish Greens to vote for 27 day ban and 54 day salary dock for Michael Matheson.
The SNP staring defeat in the face.
Has Labour soft-launched a house banger as its election campaign song to replace D:Ream?
However, to keep this factual, they polled 30.7% in 1997. On almost any metric the last 5 years have been worse, and the Party less popular, this time than in 1992-7 and in opinion polling they are currently 6-9% below where they were in the equivalent period. And there’s a Reform squeeze issue this time too.
So how exactly they’re going to beat their 1997 share at this stage I don’t readily see?
18-24: 32%
25-34: 38%
35-44: 32%
45-54: 27%
55-64: 15%
65+: 7%
It'll be interesting to listen to see who asked the question...
Otherwise, it looks like an interesting set of questions. I despise Campbell, but even a sh*t can enlighten at times. As long as you remember he's a sh*t...
LOWEST % to predict a Conservative Gov't.
What do voters think is the most likely outcome of the General Election on 4 July 2024? (25-27 May)
Labour Gov't: 64% (+4)
Conservative Gov't: 20% (-3)
Changes +/- 19 May
Who do British voters think will be the Prime Minister after the General Election? (25-27 May)
Keir Starmer 56%
Rishi Sunak 20%
Don't know 24%
https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1795496901996941618
You have to just take your best punt. Bear in mind that, if the Tories have any sense, they'll launch a full-scale assault on Labour in the last 3 weeks on tax and spend: pension freedoms/allowances, ISAs, council tax and inheritance tax allowances that might be for the chop etc.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
A betting op! Put the house the car and the yacht on Labour!
Whereas the opposite is also true for opponents of all age groups: if you oppose it, you're more likely to "strongly" oppose it.
So it might not move the needle in terms of attracting supporters to vote Conservative as much as it does getting opponents of the policy to vote for other parties.
PM tells Telegraph’s @DailyTPodcast his new scheme is aimed at instilling ‘shared sense of purpose’ in youngsters
They have a shared sense of purpose. Vote these ***** out of office...
You can do anything you want if
You've checked it's alright with the Pontiff
Closer to London, in the posh commuter belt in Surrey, it will get quite Lib Demmy.
I think seats like Portsmouth North and the IoW will stay Tory.
That's quite a compelling argument.
I might chuck a few quid on NOM.
going so wellNEW: Scottish Greens to vote for 27 day ban and 54 day salary dock for Michael Matheson.
The SNP staring defeat in the face.
https://x.com/paulhutcheon/status/1795496170048946382
A Con govt led by Rishi Sunak: 25%
A Lab govt led by Keir Starmer: 38%
https://x.com/YouGov/status/1795497765981818982
I am instinctively very cautious about a Labour win as I think many of us are. It just doesn't feel like it will happen. I am trying not to let that or over-confidence make me lose in the betting.
My central forecast remains Labour largest party, around 300-310 seats, up to Labour 370 seats.
Maybe it's a single poll lead for Labour for the over 65s.
Some of the leads from that time:
Functionally, it's not too different to having a sizeable majority - except perhaps on select committees. Though of course it isn't without problems.
Point being, it maybe worth those problems to ensure the Conservatives either change or die, rather than have a dominant Labour up against a hopeless Tory Party singing its same old discredited tunes.
Net support for national service as proposed
He's well-connected, informed and reliable.
They hold a notional 8 of the new constituencies.
I've just been (sent) down to the WI Hall to fix the toilet. Apparently copious intake of Jam and Jerusalem wreaks havoc on the plumbing. It was a real up-to-the-elbow horror show to unblock it.
Vibe check from the undead right wing hags...
- They like the Sunk Volksturm policy. I knew this was good politics.
- SKS is going to bring Corbo into government. No idea where this came from. Maybe GBN.
- Something about how SKS is going to tax houses. No, me neither.
- Most amazingly, one particularly withered specimen with hair lacquered into the shape of a Stahlhelm insisted the current massive wave of immigration is the responsibility of Labour. "They approved it."
Conclusion: the more nutty and superannuated vote is drifting back from Fukker to tory. They loathe but mainly fear SKS.Nevertheless I think it could have an effect - especially as taking the position CR suggests can function as an updated version of shy Toryism: Yes, I know on all rational measures this is a bunch of incompetent fuckwits who will decimate this country if they keep the reins of power, but my gut still tells me that they're my sort of incompetent fuckwit and it's my duty to vote with
my gut rather than let loose the rabid badger that is the Labour party.
It's approximately how I felt about the Greens for a few years.
A "true" lead of fifteen ought to give a lead of nine from time to time (3 off one, 3 on the other closes the lead by six). Question is really whether the true lead is as small as that.
But that’s not really very empirical. I agree that Labour aren’t polling as highly right now as in the run-up to 1997 but the overall stats don’t support the notion that the Conservatives are in the right place to exceed their 1997 vote share. They might, and I’m not saying they won’t, I’m just pointing to the data.
There was actually a swing away from the LibDems in 1997 of 1%
Also a helpful reminder that in 1997 the Labour Party polled 43.2%
JLP/
@RestIsPolitics
🇬🇧 election poll, 24th-25th May 2024, change on early May
Labour: 40% (-1)
Conservatives: 28% (+2)
Reform UK: 12% (-1)
Lib Dems: 10% (-1)
Green: 5% (-)"
https://x.com/JLPartnersPolls/status/1795500304571490715
NEW: *Labour lead at 12 points*
JLP/
@RestIsPolitics
🇬🇧 election poll, 24th-25th May 2024, change on early May
Labour: 40% (-1)
Conservatives: 28% (+2)
Reform UK: 12% (-1)
Lib Dems: 10% (-1)
Green: 5% (-)
And so should we all be.
Keep it as empirical as possible unless you really have a good hotline e.g. Mike Smithson on Chesham & Amersham
From a betting POV. And remember there will already be people exposed on the Spreads who stand to lose.
Still good chance the Tories post their worst % score in modern history.
Stats wise it's the highest Tory VI since February and equal lowest Labour this year and lowest lead since February.
Fieldwork Friday and Saturday so mainly before the Natty Serves (which YouGov tell us is 47-45 in favour in their poll conducted today) and super mega crusty lock
That might mean nada, of course.
They still need something to happen, and the first week hasn't provided that something.
Nowcasters as you were
They’re playing electoral Bazball.
As it is I am ignoring it...
If maintained for the next 5 weeks … the Conservatives are … oh wait. They already are.
Probably.
Bazball is actually incredibly well planned, it is just the normal commentators don't understand. It is just going against the norm in always going for the higher risk / higher reward strategy, but they have thought through all the decisions in a lot of detail.
RACE TIGHTENS IN SHOCK POLL
https://x.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1795500548134780977
Eh? Shouldn't that be "I never doubted that Angela had done nothing wrong...."?
I mean all's fair in love and war but I wouldn't mind a gentle hand of restraint on any more bonkers policies.
So polls narrowing to the point whereby enough people vote Lab but not too many would suit me perfectly.
Can't see it happening, that said - I can see no redeeming element of the Cons that would make someone march up to the polling booth and think - they're the party for me.
@Dura's mini-sample will always exist and good luck to rural WIs everywhere. But they, and the politicians who pander to them, shouldn't be running the country.
Tories also getting closer at least to Major 1997 and Brown 2010 voteshare wise and Electoral Calculus gives them 170 seats, which would mean Sunak doing slightly better than the 165 seats Major got in 1997 and the 166 seats Hague got in 2001
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=28&LAB=40&LIB=10&Reform=12&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=14.7&SCOTLAB=37.1&SCOTLIB=7.7&SCOTReform=3.5&SCOTGreen=3.8&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=30.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
The fact is that so far nothing has happened.
All the insiders say that outside of a couple of teams in IPL, England Test and T20 have the best analytics in the game. That is all the focus. ODI they don't give a monkey about. However in T20, lots of other countries have caught up now and the margins are so thin not a given that it doesn't go well next month.
That the worst poll for Labour is the accurate one (broken: 2017).
Or that a rogue poll is one you disagree with?