Trump's defence lawyer not only denies the charges but denies his client even had sex with Stormy Daniels, a risky strategy as that may be a tall order too far for the jury. Judge not happy about some comments 'defence lawyer Todd Blanche was reprimanded for a comment he made to the jury about the prospect of sending Trump to prison.
Prosecutor Joshua Steinglass objected to the prison comment, and claimed it was a "blatant" and "inappropriate" effort to garner sympathy for Donald Trump.
Justice Merchan rebuked Blanche, saying his conduct was "outrageous".
He called it "highly inappropriate" and "simply not allowed."
Defence concludes '"If you focus on the evidence... this is a very, very easy and quick not guilty verdict," he tells the jury."
So Labour are around 10-15 points ahead, as I sort of expected. The Tories will like it as they think they can get close and Labour will use it as "get out the vote".
So across the three polls the lead change is: +1 to Labour +2 to Labour +3 to Tories
... a balanced conclusion is that there's been no significant change from the campaign so far.
And remember JL Partners reallocates don't know to how they voted last time, so we should expect them to be at the lower end of the range. And similar to the recent 14% Opinium lead that has a similar approach.
I think I might take a little step back from this site for a bit. It’s getting just a trifle silly when respected posters are leaping on 1% or 2% movements either way, especially when in the process they are breaking Mike Smithson’s Golden Rule.
The fact is that so far nothing has happened.
Your kidding, right? It is precisely the forensic analysis + wishful thinking + abject fear that makes this site so acutely important in the run up to the GE.
Looking at all the comments allows you to construct your own view. No one is asking you to go along with anyone about anything.
What do you want - somewhere that says "well who knows...?"
Edit: but of course feel free to head off any time you want.
Edit II: plus if you're going to go, go. Don't make a big song and dance about it.
So it wasn't Con+Ref>Lab but it is Con+Ref=Lab which is psychologically important and can make CCHQ happy. Now the message can be to Farage and Reform "Give us your votes and we can stop the socialists taking over." It's a good message to campaign on.
Yes. 'Vote Reform, get Labour. Vote Tory get hanging for sheep stealing'. Should work all right.
Not so much hanging but those stocks aren't going to re-commission themselves.
To add some context to this modelled vi: @JLPartnersPolls uses a MLM to impute the DKs using policy and leadership assessments. We *also* model turnout along similar lines - an MLM that takes policy and leadership assessments, along with a whole host of other stuff.
I think I might take a little step back from this site for a bit. It’s getting just a trifle silly when respected posters are leaping on 1% or 2% movements either way, especially when in the process they are breaking Mike Smithson’s Golden Rule.
The fact is that so far nothing has happened.
Not quite nothing, Heathener. I've just seen my first billboard of the campaign here in wonderful downtown Winchcombe, and it is for......The Yellow Peril!
Can it be this that has caused Sporting Index to up their spread on the LDs by five points?
Seriously, you don't get excited at any poll unless it is accompanied by some major electoral event that has clearly cut through to the public, or is supported by most of the others polls trending in the same direction - and preferably both.
The surprising thing about the JLP poll is that it was already a good outlier for the Tories before this modest shift further in their direction. This is in contrast to both the other polls published today which trend the other way.
Latest JLP polling for @restispolitics has the Labour lead at 12 points.
Only one poll, so let's see if the trend continues. But what is behind this tightening since April is the Tories going from a 8-point lead to a 20-point lead with over-65s.
So across the three polls the lead change is: +1 to Labour +2 to Labour +3 to Tories
... a balanced conclusion is that there's been no significant change from the campaign so far.
And remember JL Partners reallocates don't know to how they voted last time, so we should expect them to be at the lower end of the range. And similar to the recent 14% Opinium lead that has a similar approach.
Opinium’s been basically flat at 16% since March. Six or seven consecutive Labour leads of 16% before a small rise to 18% and back down to 14% in the most recent. FWIW I think Opinium are about right.
So it wasn't Con+Ref>Lab but it is Con+Ref=Lab which is psychologically important and can make CCHQ happy. Now the message can be to Farage and Reform "Give us your votes and we can stop the socialists taking over." It's a good message to campaign on.
Yes. 'Vote Reform, get Labour. Vote Tory get hanging for sheep stealing'. Should work all right.
Except only 20% of the Reform vote is ex Tory - most are ex Brexit and if they didn't vote for Bozo to get Brexit done they aren't voting for this Tory party.
Recent YouGov: 19% of 2019 Tories are for Reform at the moment. That's over 2 million potential Tory voters. And they all support the death penalty for sheep stealing and imprisoning all young people just in case and national service for everyone under 40.
So across the three polls the lead change is: +1 to Labour +2 to Labour +3 to Tories
... a balanced conclusion is that there's been no significant change from the campaign so far.
And remember JL Partners reallocates don't know to how they voted last time, so we should expect them to be at the lower end of the range. And similar to the recent 14% Opinium lead that has a similar approach.
That would make sense if the 2019 was a normal campaign but it wasn't - it's enough for me to question their methodology here
Looking at their will vote figures and discounting Don't knows (now I have the data the raw JLP figures for those who intend to vote are)
Sam Freedman breathlessly tweeting what JLP poll would be without adjustments (43 26 fwiw) but for some inexplicable reason doesn't think to show what R&W or Survation would be with them whilst Ben Riley Smith just declares it an outlier because its not like the other two today. Absolute pillocks. Freedmans tweet replies are all nutters claiming its a push poll or its confirmation bias just cos their poll was in favour of NS (ignoring the YouGov poll today confirming very slight net support in a poll of 4000)
Latest JLP polling for @restispolitics has the Labour lead at 12 points.
Only one poll, so let's see if the trend continues. But what is behind this tightening since April is the Tories going from a 8-point lead to a 20-point lead with over-65s.
On the Lib Dems only having 8 seats held notionally from GE19, here's the seats that they have notionally lost.
Westmorland and Lonsdale (sitting MP Tim Farron). Taking around 20,000 new voters from Penrith and the Border (home of Rory the Tory's favourite Pret) and losing around 15,000 voters to Morecambe and Lunesdale. That notionally turns a 2,000 LD majority to a 4,000 Con majority.
North East Fife (Wendy Chamberlain). Takes around 7,000 new voters from Glenrothes which notionally changes a 1,300 LD majority to a 1,000 SNP majority
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross (Jamie Stone). This was a very small population constituency in 2019 with only 47,000 electors. It has taken around 27,000 voters from the dismembered Ross, Skye and Lochaber (former seat of Charles Kennedy) which notionally moves a slim LD majority of 204 to an SNP majority of 4,000.
Times - Diana Abbott will not be allowed to stand for Labour...
That is ridiculous. This is the sort of thing that can cause a butterfly effect. On what basis can Natalie Elphicke join the Party but Diane Abbott cannot? What an unprincipled shit Keir Starmer is. I hope he loses his seat
To add some context to this modelled vi: @JLPartnersPolls uses a MLM to impute the DKs using policy and leadership assessments. We *also* model turnout along similar lines - an MLM that takes policy and leadership assessments, along with a whole host of other stuff.
Each of these appears to reduce the least by a handful of points independently. Generally the DKs split evenly between the Cons and Lab, but turnout (as always) favours the Conservatives.
- and that's the problem, I simply don't see the Tory voters coming out come election day, SKS will win, Labour's Manifesto is sane, may as will sit in the Garden a bit more...
All MoE stuff. I originally thought 40/30, the disastrous campaign I thought no chance, maybe the Tories do squeeze it out enough with some more quadruple lock-age type policies for the olds e.g. IHT threshold rise.
Their campaign isn’t disastrous, it’s unconventional. It doesn’t look good on TV because it doesn’t have to. It just has to stir things up in the socials and get out the vote. Quite successful I reckon.
They’re playing electoral Bazball.
Yes, we all imagine that the Tory campaign is what we see on the news. Wrong. They will be blowing their massive war chest on targeted Facebook ads telling all kinds of fibs and it will no doubt be highly effective as it usually is.
Not quite as Earth shattering as I’d been led to believe
If it's true, though, *and* RefUK get down to 8% with the balance largely going Tory you've then got the Tories in the low 30s and a much narrower gap.
I can just about see how the MM prediction comes to pass.
I think BatteryCorrectHorse is probably right about seats like Basingstoke going to Labour. Another one might be the new Earley and Woodley seat which is just outside Reading.
Here in Basingstoke, Labour have opened a campaign office in the town centre and feels pretty visible as a campaign at the moment. Never seen an Lab campaign office before in previous GEs. No sightings of any Tory campaign or Maria Miller yet.
Sam Freedman breathlessly tweeting what JLP poll would be without adjustments (43 26 fwiw) but for some inexplicable reason doesn't think to show what R&W or Survation would be with them whilst Ben Riley Smith just declares it an outlier because its not like the other two today. Absolute pillocks. Freedmans tweet replies are all nutters claiming its a push poll or its confirmation bias just cos their poll was in favour of NS (ignoring the YouGov poll today confirming very slight net support in a poll of 4000)
Wouldn't Survation and R&W be closer to JL if applying the same modelling.
So basically, there's been very little change. But we should know quite soon how good the models are, assuming the pollsters that don't model, begin to have their polls drop and go towards JL?
On the Lib Dems only having 8 seats held notionally from GE19, here's the seats that they have notionally lost.
Westmorland and Lonsdale (sitting MP Tim Farron). Taking around 20,000 new voters from Penrith and the Border (home of Rory the Tory's favourite Pret) and losing around 15,000 voters to Morecambe and Lunesdale. That notionally turns a 2,000 LD majority to a 4,000 Con majority.
North East Fife (Wendy Chamberlain). Takes around 7,000 new voters from Glenrothes which notionally changes a 1,300 LD majority to a 1,000 SNP majority
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross (Jamie Stone). This was a very small population constituency in 2019 with only 47,000 electors. It has taken around 27,000 voters from the dismembered Ross, Skye and Lochaber (former seat of Charles Kennedy) which notionally moves a slim LD majority of 204 to an SNP majority of 4,000.
Explains why Ed Davey was campaigning in the Lakes today.
That's margin of error movement - the fact the Tories are celebrating that is worrying (for them)...
But if maintained for the next 5 weeks....Labour are stuffed.
Er... not really, that's a 3% move in 3 weeks or a 6% move in 7 weeks, so at this rate the lead would be down to 7% by polling day, still enough for Starmer to be PM.
Alternatively we could look at Survation in which Labour's lead has increased by 5% in four weeks to 23%, so by polling day would be 29%, with the Tories on 21% and Labour on 50%. Now in that scenario... the Tories are close to extinct.
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
I've just been (sent) down to the WI Hall to fix the toilet. Apparently copious intake of Jam and Jerusalem wreaks havoc on the plumbing. It was a real up-to-the-elbow horror show to unblock it.
Vibe check from the undead right wing hags...
They like the Sunk Volksturm policy. I knew this was good politics.
SKS is going to bring Corbo into government. No idea where this came from. Maybe GBN.
Something about how SKS is going to tax houses. No, me neither.
Most amazingly, one particularly withered specimen with hair lacquered into the shape of a Stahlhelm insisted the current massive wave of immigration is the responsibility of Labour. "They approved it."
Conclusion: the more nutty and superannuated vote is drifting back from Fukker to tory. They loathe but mainly fear SKS.
The millions and millions that the Tories are spending on virtual advertising, is starting to pay off then.....
I think I might take a little step back from this site for a bit. It’s getting just a trifle silly when respected posters are leaping on 1% or 2% movements either way, especially when in the process they are breaking Mike Smithson’s Golden Rule.
The fact is that so far nothing has happened.
Good evening
I tend to agree, with a little for everyone
IMHO Starmer is heading for a good working majority and all that remains is to see just how good
What is intriguing to me is that Redfield's poll seems to have don't knows splitting evenly between Labour and Tory. JL presumably don't, so I am interested to know in how that difference comes about.
Ben, it is not generally a good idea to let it be known you occasionally visit Guido's site, even for research purposes.
It would be fucking HILAIRE BELLOC-ARIOUS if Labour contrive go get a mere Hung Parliament out of their 48 point leads. However, it ain't gonna happen. Labour with a very very solid majority
On the Lib Dems only having 8 seats held notionally from GE19, here's the seats that they have notionally lost.
Westmorland and Lonsdale (sitting MP Tim Farron). Taking around 20,000 new voters from Penrith and the Border (home of Rory the Tory's favourite Pret) and losing around 15,000 voters to Morecambe and Lunesdale. That notionally turns a 2,000 LD majority to a 4,000 Con majority.
North East Fife (Wendy Chamberlain). Takes around 7,000 new voters from Glenrothes which notionally changes a 1,300 LD majority to a 1,000 SNP majority
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross (Jamie Stone). This was a very small population constituency in 2019 with only 47,000 electors. It has taken around 27,000 voters from the dismembered Ross, Skye and Lochaber (former seat of Charles Kennedy) which notionally moves a slim LD majority of 204 to an SNP majority of 4,000.
Explains why Ed Davey was campaigning in the Lakes today.
Times - Diana Abbott will not be allowed to stand for Labour...
That is ridiculous. This is the sort of thing that can cause a butterfly effect. On what basis can Natalie Elphicke join the Party but Diane Abbott cannot? What an unprincipled shit Keir Starmer is. I hope he loses his seat
On the Lib Dems only having 8 seats held notionally from GE19, here's the seats that they have notionally lost.
Westmorland and Lonsdale (sitting MP Tim Farron). Taking around 20,000 new voters from Penrith and the Border (home of Rory the Tory's favourite Pret) and losing around 15,000 voters to Morecambe and Lunesdale. That notionally turns a 2,000 LD majority to a 4,000 Con majority.
North East Fife (Wendy Chamberlain). Takes around 7,000 new voters from Glenrothes which notionally changes a 1,300 LD majority to a 1,000 SNP majority
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross (Jamie Stone). This was a very small population constituency in 2019 with only 47,000 electors. It has taken around 27,000 voters from the dismembered Ross, Skye and Lochaber (former seat of Charles Kennedy) which notionally moves a slim LD majority of 204 to an SNP majority of 4,000.
Explains why Ed Davey was campaigning in the Lakes today.
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
Sam Freedman breathlessly tweeting what JLP poll would be without adjustments (43 26 fwiw) but for some inexplicable reason doesn't think to show what R&W or Survation would be with them whilst Ben Riley Smith just declares it an outlier because its not like the other two today. Absolute pillocks. Freedmans tweet replies are all nutters claiming its a push poll or its confirmation bias just cos their poll was in favour of NS (ignoring the YouGov poll today confirming very slight net support in a poll of 4000)
Wouldn't Survation and R&W be closer to JL if applying the same modelling.
So basically, there's been very little change. But we should know quite soon how good the models are, assuming the pollsters that don't model, begin to have their polls drop and go towards JL?
Yes. It's different methodologies but neither can be said to be 'correct'. Freedman is a Labourite so he's unsubtly suggesting we ignore anything that doesn't show a mahoosive lead 'just cos'
Times - Diana Abbott will not be allowed to stand for Labour...
That is ridiculous. This is the sort of thing that can cause a butterfly effect. On what basis can Natalie Elphicke join the Party but Diane Abbott cannot? What an unprincipled shit Keir Starmer is. I hope he loses his seat
Keir Starmer is a liar. Diane Abbott investigation ended 5 mths ago. He's steamrolling 1st Black Female MP out for White Jewish Zionist vote. Her comments were neither antisemitic or racist. Offensive yes & she apologised. He didn't fix Labour party, he made it Zionist - WORSE.
So across the three polls the lead change is: +1 to Labour +2 to Labour +3 to Tories
... a balanced conclusion is that there's been no significant change from the campaign so far.
And remember JL Partners reallocates don't know to how they voted last time, so we should expect them to be at the lower end of the range. And similar to the recent 14% Opinium lead that has a similar approach.
That would make sense if the 2019 was a normal campaign but it wasn't - it's enough for me to question their methodology here
Looking at their will vote figures and discounting Don't knows (now I have the data the raw JLP figures for those who intend to vote are)
Ben, it is not generally a good idea to let it be known you occasionally visit Guido's site, even for research purposes.
It would be fucking HILAIRE BELLOC-ARIOUS if Labour contrive go get a mere Hung Parliament out of their 48 point leads. However, it ain't gonna happen. Labour with a very very solid majority
People are still forgetting in their polling euphoria that in historical terms, Labour still has a fucking mountain to climb to get a majority of one.
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Sam Freedman breathlessly tweeting what JLP poll would be without adjustments (43 26 fwiw) but for some inexplicable reason doesn't think to show what R&W or Survation would be with them whilst Ben Riley Smith just declares it an outlier because its not like the other two today. Absolute pillocks. Freedmans tweet replies are all nutters claiming its a push poll or its confirmation bias just cos their poll was in favour of NS (ignoring the YouGov poll today confirming very slight net support in a poll of 4000)
Wouldn't Survation and R&W be closer to JL if applying the same modelling.
So basically, there's been very little change. But we should know quite soon how good the models are, assuming the pollsters that don't model, begin to have their polls drop and go towards JL?
Yes. It's different methodologies but neither can be said to be 'correct'. Freedman is a Labourite so he's unsubtly suggesting we ignore anything that doesn't show a mahoosive lead 'just cos'
Well I can ignore his ramblings and look at his analysis which seems to be fairly objective, just posting what is in the poll.
We need to see more polls, these models intrigue me.
I'd also like to see the YouGov MRP which has been accurate in the last two GEs. Any news?
All MoE stuff. I originally thought 40/30, the disastrous campaign I thought no chance, maybe the Tories do squeeze it out enough with some more quadruple lock-age type policies for the olds e.g. IHT threshold rise.
Their campaign isn’t disastrous, it’s unconventional. It doesn’t look good on TV because it doesn’t have to. It just has to stir things up in the socials and get out the vote. Quite successful I reckon.
Why did they start using these models, they weren't around in 2019 from memory so wondered what brought on the companies using them this time. Does anyone have insight, I find polling an interesting topic.
I SAID the reaction on here was a load of geriatric bien pensant bollocks on acid with bells tied on by a trans hooker from Tirana on Ket with a belisha beacon fetish standing next to a labradoodle with herpes
Keir Starmer is a liar. Diane Abbott investigation ended 5 mths ago. He's steamrolling 1st Black Female MP out for White Jewish Zionist vote. Her comments were neither antisemitic or racist. Offensive yes & she apologised. He didn't fix Labour party, he made it Zionist - WORSE.
Starmer might be underestimating how toxic this will be for the wider left, including in America.
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
On the Lib Dems only having 8 seats held notionally from GE19, here's the seats that they have notionally lost.
Westmorland and Lonsdale (sitting MP Tim Farron). Taking around 20,000 new voters from Penrith and the Border (home of Rory the Tory's favourite Pret) and losing around 15,000 voters to Morecambe and Lunesdale. That notionally turns a 2,000 LD majority to a 4,000 Con majority.
North East Fife (Wendy Chamberlain). Takes around 7,000 new voters from Glenrothes which notionally changes a 1,300 LD majority to a 1,000 SNP majority
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross (Jamie Stone). This was a very small population constituency in 2019 with only 47,000 electors. It has taken around 27,000 voters from the dismembered Ross, Skye and Lochaber (former seat of Charles Kennedy) which notionally moves a slim LD majority of 204 to an SNP majority of 4,000.
Explains why Ed Davey was campaigning in the Lakes today.
Sam Freedman breathlessly tweeting what JLP poll would be without adjustments (43 26 fwiw) but for some inexplicable reason doesn't think to show what R&W or Survation would be with them whilst Ben Riley Smith just declares it an outlier because its not like the other two today. Absolute pillocks. Freedmans tweet replies are all nutters claiming its a push poll or its confirmation bias just cos their poll was in favour of NS (ignoring the YouGov poll today confirming very slight net support in a poll of 4000)
Wouldn't Survation and R&W be closer to JL if applying the same modelling.
So basically, there's been very little change. But we should know quite soon how good the models are, assuming the pollsters that don't model, begin to have their polls drop and go towards JL?
Yes. It's different methodologies but neither can be said to be 'correct'. Freedman is a Labourite so he's unsubtly suggesting we ignore anything that doesn't show a mahoosive lead 'just cos'
Well I can ignore his ramblings and look at his analysis which seems to be fairly objective, just posting what is in the poll.
We need to see more polls, these models intrigue me.
I'd also like to see the YouGov MRP which has been accurate in the last two GEs. Any news?
Accurate to an extent. It pointed to a small Tory majority in 2019 whereas the result was far more decisive.
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
All the Labour supporters on here can relax. Labour are still miles ahead and heading for a huge majority.
Probably!
What's interesting, though, is how bloody nervous they are.
Of course, we (as I still emotionally feel about them) are the Spurs of politics. If we can fritter a lead away we'll find a way to do it. There might be a left-right side to that too, Tories seem to me to be more optimistic about the future.
That's margin of error movement - the fact the Tories are celebrating that is worrying (for them)...
It also could be dangerous for the Tories, since if people think that the election isn´t a foregone conclusion, they will go all out to make sure that it is...
Ben, it is not generally a good idea to let it be known you occasionally visit Guido's site, even for research purposes.
It would be fucking HILAIRE BELLOC-ARIOUS if Labour contrive go get a mere Hung Parliament out of their 48 point leads. However, it ain't gonna happen. Labour with a very very solid majority
People are still forgetting in their polling euphoria that in historical terms, Labour still has a fucking mountain to climb to get a majority of one.
Were both parties in the mid 30%s you would be correct
Until the tories get to that point (and remember JLP are pulling tricks to get you to 28%) Labour don't need that many votes to win...
Keir Starmer is a liar. Diane Abbott investigation ended 5 mths ago. He's steamrolling 1st Black Female MP out for White Jewish Zionist vote. Her comments were neither antisemitic or racist. Offensive yes & she apologised. He didn't fix Labour party, he made it Zionist - WORSE.
Starmer might be underestimating how toxic this will be for the wider left, including in America.
Is Dr Shola Mos-Shogbamimu a household name in the States...or anywhere?
Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
I have a certaind degree of confidence building in my Labour 38%, Con 33% prediction...
Hearing via several Con MPs that the response out there is nowhere near as bad as the 20% Labour leads.
People are polite
I’m deeply suspicious at this stage of apparent doorstep canvassing messages being filtered back through party sources.
And so should we all be.
Keep it as empirical as possible unless you really have a good hotline e.g. Mike Smithson on Chesham & Amersham
From a betting POV. And remember there will already be people exposed on the Spreads who stand to lose.
I have a strong feeling your early- outlandish at the time-predictions of a massive Labour win is what's going to happen. I can't see anything that's going to shift this one
I think I might take a little step back from this site for a bit. It’s getting just a trifle silly when respected posters are leaping on 1% or 2% movements either way, especially when in the process they are breaking Mike Smithson’s Golden Rule.
The fact is that so far nothing has happened.
This is PB. It's a General Election. We only get them once every half decade. YES WE GET OVER-EXCITED. It's what the whole site is for, it's like you're blaming a stud camel for getting the horn when he's got his once a year bunk up with the saucy dromedary from Baluchistan
What did people here predict in 2019 in terms of seat numbers, just for fun?
I'll go first, I predicted a Hung Parliament with Labour on 270-280, Tories around 300.
Honestly cannot remember the seats specifically but scrolling way back through an old WhatsApp group I have with politically inclined friends I said 60+ Con majority.
I SAID the reaction on here was a load of geriatric bien pensant bollocks on acid with bells tied on by a trans hooker from Tirana on Ket with a belisha beacon fetish standing next to a labradoodle with herpes
Ben, it is not generally a good idea to let it be known you occasionally visit Guido's site, even for research purposes.
It would be fucking HILAIRE BELLOC-ARIOUS if Labour contrive go get a mere Hung Parliament out of their 48 point leads. However, it ain't gonna happen. Labour with a very very solid majority
People are still forgetting in their polling euphoria that in historical terms, Labour still has a fucking mountain to climb to get a majority of one.
Polling is a better indicator of how people are going to vote than the difference with the result 5 years ago. They don’t have a “mountain to climb”. They just have to do what any party has to do: win in a majority of the seats.
Keir Starmer is a liar. Diane Abbott investigation ended 5 mths ago. He's steamrolling 1st Black Female MP out for White Jewish Zionist vote. Her comments were neither antisemitic or racist. Offensive yes & she apologised. He didn't fix Labour party, he made it Zionist - WORSE.
Starmer might be underestimating how toxic this will be for the wider left, including in America.
Is Dr Shola Mos-Shogbamimu a household name in the States...or anywhere?
Ben, it is not generally a good idea to let it be known you occasionally visit Guido's site, even for research purposes.
It would be fucking HILAIRE BELLOC-ARIOUS if Labour contrive go get a mere Hung Parliament out of their 48 point leads. However, it ain't gonna happen. Labour with a very very solid majority
People are still forgetting in their polling euphoria that in historical terms, Labour still has a fucking mountain to climb to get a majority of one.
I might put it ever so slightly differently.
By and large the country is still in two camps: it's just the centre-right one has splintered.
I think I might take a little step back from this site for a bit. It’s getting just a trifle silly when respected posters are leaping on 1% or 2% movements either way, especially when in the process they are breaking Mike Smithson’s Golden Rule.
The fact is that so far nothing has happened.
This is PB. It's a General Election. We only get them once every half decade. YES WE GET OVER-EXCITED. It's what the whole site is for, it's like you're blaming a stud camel for getting the horn when he's got his once a year bunk up with the saucy dromedary from Baluchistan
Is there an echo in here? Why are you talking to yourself?
Times - Diana Abbott will not be allowed to stand for Labour...
That is ridiculous. This is the sort of thing that can cause a butterfly effect. On what basis can Natalie Elphicke join the Party but Diane Abbott cannot? What an unprincipled shit Keir Starmer is. I hope he loses his seat
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
I’m with @BartholomewRoberts - this forced Labour policy has made me question whether I can vote conservative on 4 July.
Sam Freedman breathlessly tweeting what JLP poll would be without adjustments (43 26 fwiw) but for some inexplicable reason doesn't think to show what R&W or Survation would be with them whilst Ben Riley Smith just declares it an outlier because its not like the other two today. Absolute pillocks. Freedmans tweet replies are all nutters claiming its a push poll or its confirmation bias just cos their poll was in favour of NS (ignoring the YouGov poll today confirming very slight net support in a poll of 4000)
Wouldn't Survation and R&W be closer to JL if applying the same modelling.
So basically, there's been very little change. But we should know quite soon how good the models are, assuming the pollsters that don't model, begin to have their polls drop and go towards JL?
Yes. It's different methodologies but neither can be said to be 'correct'. Freedman is a Labourite so he's unsubtly suggesting we ignore anything that doesn't show a mahoosive lead 'just cos'
Well I can ignore his ramblings and look at his analysis which seems to be fairly objective, just posting what is in the poll.
We need to see more polls, these models intrigue me.
I'd also like to see the YouGov MRP which has been accurate in the last two GEs. Any news?
Accurate to an extent. It pointed to a small Tory majority in 2019 whereas the result was far more decisive.
Didn't they do two and the first pointed to pretty much what we got?
Keir Starmer is a liar. Diane Abbott investigation ended 5 mths ago. He's steamrolling 1st Black Female MP out for White Jewish Zionist vote. Her comments were neither antisemitic or racist. Offensive yes & she apologised. He didn't fix Labour party, he made it Zionist - WORSE.
Starmer might be underestimating how toxic this will be for the wider left, including in America.
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Why?
I liked Hunt cutting NI for reasons I've said to death before. Being pro work is something the Tories should be.
The proposals coming from Sunak now are utterly insane and counterproductive.
Like many 18 year olds I had a job and was putting myself through University when I was 18. How does National Service square with people who work for a living at 18 already? People who have a job as they have bills to pay? It's a nonsense proposal.
As for freezing personal allowance for those who are working for a living, but lifting it for those who are not ... the less said about that the better.
That's margin of error movement - the fact the Tories are celebrating that is worrying (for them)...
It also could be dangerous for the Tories, since if people think that the election isn´t a foregone conclusion, they will go all out to make sure that it is...
No one needs to talk up a close election more than Labour.
I SAID the reaction on here was a load of geriatric bien pensant bollocks on acid with bells tied on by a trans hooker from Tirana on Ket with a belisha beacon fetish standing next to a labradoodle with herpes
Again, as I said downthread, look at the strength of support. If you like it, you might like it a bit. But if you dislike it, you strongly dislike it. So it's more likely to motivate people voting against it, than for it.
I was in the "undecided whether I'll just stay at home or actually vote Labour this time round" camp last week, now I'm in the "I will crawl naked on my bare belly across broken glass to vote Labour this time round, since the Tories think that forced fruit picking labour camps are a good idea and they need to be turfed out pronto lest they come up with any more of their horrible, authoritarian shit" camp.
I think I might take a little step back from this site for a bit. It’s getting just a trifle silly when respected posters are leaping on 1% or 2% movements either way, especially when in the process they are breaking Mike Smithson’s Golden Rule.
The fact is that so far nothing has happened.
This is PB. It's a General Election. We only get them once every half decade. YES WE GET OVER-EXCITED. It's what the whole site is for, it's like you're blaming a stud camel for getting the horn when he's got his once a year bunk up with the saucy dromedary from Baluchistan
I think I might take a little step back from this site for a bit. It’s getting just a trifle silly when respected posters are leaping on 1% or 2% movements either way, especially when in the process they are breaking Mike Smithson’s Golden Rule.
The fact is that so far nothing has happened.
This is PB. It's a General Election. We only get them once every half decade. YES WE GET OVER-EXCITED. It's what the whole site is for, it's like you're blaming a stud camel for getting the horn when he's got his once a year bunk up with the saucy dromedary from Baluchistan
Is there an echo in here? Why are you talking to yourself?
Because it's better than talking to a low-watt, mid-wit, 105 IQ surburban rizz-bypass no-mark nerdspazzer like you
I SAID the reaction on here was a load of geriatric bien pensant bollocks on acid with bells tied on by a trans hooker from Tirana on Ket with a belisha beacon fetish standing next to a labradoodle with herpes
Again, as I said downthread, look at the strength of support. If you like it, you might like it a bit. But if you dislike it, you strongly dislike it. So it's more likely to motivate people voting against it, than for it.
I was in the "undecided whether I'll just stay at home or actually vote Labour this time round" camp last week, now I'm in the "I will crawl naked on my bare belly across broken glass to vote Labour this time round, since the Tories think that forced fruit picking labour camps are a good idea and they need to be turfed out pronto lest they come up with any more of their horrible, authoritarian shit" camp.
I find your insight interesting, may I ask if you are a younger voter or what sort of age group you fall into?
Personally, I expect the polls to move soon. The Conservatives have been dominating the campaign so far with a very Trumpian approach. The more their campaign is mocked, the happier they will be I reckon.
It amplifies the message every time someone does it.
Yes, but that's only a good thing if the message is is a good one.
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
Fair enough, and my only caution is be careful what you wish for.
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
I’m with @BartholomewRoberts - this forced Labour policy has made me question whether I can vote conservative on 4 July.
I think I might take a little step back from this site for a bit. It’s getting just a trifle silly when respected posters are leaping on 1% or 2% movements either way, especially when in the process they are breaking Mike Smithson’s Golden Rule.
The fact is that so far nothing has happened.
This is PB. It's a General Election. We only get them once every half decade. YES WE GET OVER-EXCITED. It's what the whole site is for, it's like you're blaming a stud camel for getting the horn when he's got his once a year bunk up with the saucy dromedary from Baluchistan
Is there an echo in here? Why are you talking to yourself?
Because it's better than talking to a low-watt, mid-wit, 105 IQ surburban rizz-bypass no-mark nerdspazzer like you
You seem to have been rebooted into "absolute fucking nonsense" mode again, perhaps it's time for you to come back as Heathener who can at least use a full stop.
Comments
Prosecutor Joshua Steinglass objected to the prison comment, and claimed it was a "blatant" and "inappropriate" effort to garner sympathy for Donald Trump.
Justice Merchan rebuked Blanche, saying his conduct was "outrageous".
He called it "highly inappropriate" and "simply not allowed."
Defence concludes '"If you focus on the evidence... this is a very, very easy and quick not guilty verdict," he tells the jury."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-us-canada-69046641
+1 to Labour
+2 to Labour
+3 to Tories
... a balanced conclusion is that there's been no significant change from the campaign so far.
And remember JL Partners reallocates don't know to how they voted last time, so we should expect them to be at the lower end of the range. And similar to the recent 14% Opinium lead that has a similar approach.
Looking at all the comments allows you to construct your own view. No one is asking you to go along with anyone about anything.
What do you want - somewhere that says "well who knows...?"
Edit: but of course feel free to head off any time you want.
Edit II: plus if you're going to go, go. Don't make a big song and dance about it.
https://x.com/Callum_L_Hunter/status/1795505028762869990
Can it be this that has caused Sporting Index to up their spread on the LDs by five points?
Seriously, you don't get excited at any poll unless it is accompanied by some major electoral event that has clearly cut through to the public, or is supported by most of the others polls trending in the same direction - and preferably both.
The surprising thing about the JLP poll is that it was already a good outlier for the Tories before this modest shift further in their direction. This is in contrast to both the other polls published today which trend the other way.
Score draw.
All the Labour supporters on here can relax. Labour are still miles ahead and heading for a huge majority.
Probably!
Only one poll, so let's see if the trend continues. But what is behind this tightening since April is the Tories going from a 8-point lead to a 20-point lead with over-65s.
The pensioner squeeze is on.
https://x.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1795503589349011691
Labour are really getting a free ride from the current stitch ups and very late standings down of MPs. All of whom to be replaced with SKS loyalists.
Oh, and Dr Shola is not happy.
https://x.com/sholamos1/status/1795433421084197375?s=61
Looking at their will vote figures and discounting Don't knows (now I have the data the raw JLP figures for those who intend to vote are)
Labour 43%
Tories 26%
Lib Dems 10%
Reform 10%
Greens 6%
Absolute pillocks.
Freedmans tweet replies are all nutters claiming its a push poll or its confirmation bias just cos their poll was in favour of NS (ignoring the YouGov poll today confirming very slight net support in a poll of 4000)
Lab 43%
Con 26%
Reform 10%
LD 10%
Green 6%
https://x.com/Samfr/status/1795503282682499385
So am I right in saying that if correct, the other pollsters really should get closer to the current JL figure as the campaign goes on?
Westmorland and Lonsdale (sitting MP Tim Farron). Taking around 20,000 new voters from Penrith and the Border (home of Rory the Tory's favourite Pret) and losing around 15,000 voters to Morecambe and Lunesdale. That notionally turns a 2,000 LD majority to a 4,000 Con majority.
North East Fife (Wendy Chamberlain). Takes around 7,000 new voters from Glenrothes which notionally changes a 1,300 LD majority to a 1,000 SNP majority
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross (Jamie Stone). This was a very small population constituency in 2019 with only 47,000 electors. It has taken around 27,000 voters from the dismembered Ross, Skye and Lochaber (former seat of Charles Kennedy) which notionally moves a slim LD majority of 204 to an SNP majority of 4,000.
Each of these appears to reduce the least by a handful of points independently. Generally the DKs split evenly between the Cons and Lab, but turnout (as always) favours the Conservatives.
- and that's the problem, I simply don't see the Tory voters coming out come election day, SKS will win, Labour's Manifesto is sane, may as will sit in the Garden a bit more...
I can just about see how the MM prediction comes to pass.
Lab 39%
Con 34%
Ref 9%
LD 8%
Grn 7%
https://www.economist.com/interactive/uk-general-election/forecast
So basically, there's been very little change. But we should know quite soon how good the models are, assuming the pollsters that don't model, begin to have their polls drop and go towards JL?
Options:
Berry (Green) in Brighton
Corbyn (ind) in Islington N
Anderson (Ref UK)
Green in Bristol Central
Galloway (WPB)
Anyone else?
Alternatively we could look at Survation in which Labour's lead has increased by 5% in four weeks to 23%, so by polling day would be 29%, with the Tories on 21% and Labour on 50%. Now in that scenario... the Tories are close to extinct.
I tend to agree, with a little for everyone
IMHO Starmer is heading for a good working majority and all that remains is to see just how good
A very low class remark from a gentleman of your erudition.
You should know that it's utterly unacceptable to create an oxymoron.
I'll go first, I predicted a Hung Parliament with Labour on 270-280, Tories around 300.
Dr Shola Mos-Shogbamimu
Keir Starmer is a liar. Diane Abbott investigation ended 5 mths ago. He's steamrolling 1st Black Female MP out for White Jewish Zionist vote. Her comments were neither antisemitic or racist. Offensive yes & she apologised. He didn't fix Labour party, he made it Zionist - WORSE.
I think the reallocating don't knows to Tories will likely overstate their recovery from the raw voting intentions.
But I also suspect some don't knows will return to the Tories.
So the answer probably sits somewhere between the two groups of pollsters. High teens lead a likely outcome.
This is ignoring any genuine polling movement over the campaign, which the evidence suggests we've not seen so far.
Just over 5 weeks to go...
Personally I'm the kind of voter you should be getting, but Sunak's messaging is pushing me further and further away, not closer.
Edit: Which is a shame as Jeremy Hunt's messaging lately has been one I really support, so if that had been the Tory agenda I could have been won back, but the opposite is happening with this.
We need to see more polls, these models intrigue me.
I'd also like to see the YouGov MRP which has been accurate in the last two GEs. Any news?
I don't think you'll enjoy a Labour government.
Until the tories get to that point (and remember JLP are pulling tricks to get you to 28%) Labour don't need that many votes to win...
By and large the country is still in two camps: it's just the centre-right one has splintered.
If it decides to partly/substantially reunite...
Heh
Posted on here last week; I should bookmark it for future reference…
I would suggest PB is not, and maybe it is more nuanced though the age difference is predicable
YouGov
Britons are divided 47%-45% on Rishi Sunak's national service plan - the young are opposed but older Britons are in favour
All Britons: 47% support / 45% oppose
18-24yr olds: 27% support / 65% oppose
65+yr olds: 63% support / 31% oppose
The proposals coming from Sunak now are utterly insane and counterproductive.
Like many 18 year olds I had a job and was putting myself through University when I was 18. How does National Service square with people who work for a living at 18 already? People who have a job as they have bills to pay? It's a nonsense proposal.
As for freezing personal allowance for those who are working for a living, but lifting it for those who are not ... the less said about that the better.
I was in the "undecided whether I'll just stay at home or actually vote Labour this time round" camp last week, now I'm in the "I will crawl naked on my bare belly across broken glass to vote Labour this time round, since the Tories think that forced fruit picking labour camps are a good idea and they need to be turfed out pronto lest they come up with any more of their horrible, authoritarian shit" camp.
Exclusive with @patrickkmaguire
Diane Abbott will not be allowed to stand as a Labour candidate in the general election, bringing an end to her 37-year career in Parliament
There are no circumstances in which she will stand under the Labour banner on July 4
Senior aides to Starmer have held discussions about restoring her to Labuor whip before election to allow her to leave politics 'with dignity'
t.co/wgAyXKLqji
https://x.com/steven_swinford/status/1795507562596421771?