No it isn't a real video. Her lips don't match what she is saying and the "logo" moves around the video. Worrying.
The facebook link to a contemporaneous BBC post showing the speech looks all fine - those issues are just compression artefacts and don't appear on the HD video on facebook.
I think most of us were expecting the gap to narrow but what if it…. doesn’t?
Some time to go yet, but the idea that “a campaign will focus minds” doesn’t seem to have been true, at least yet.
At some stage we are either going to have to make a call that either a) the polls are wrong and overstating the Labour lead as it was for much of the time in 1997/2001 or b) the polls are right and… well, the Tories are properly stuffed aren’t they?
The "positive" poll is coming from Redfield and Wilton, the scamps.
Being above twenty percent is seen as positive by the Conservatives.
Guido was, however inadvertently, spreading a rumour that turned out to not be true.
That polling is bad - very bad for the Tories. It's almost the worst ever polling for the Tories by Survation has a Labour lead well above where it was before (they clearly state their tory lead has historically been a steady 17-18 points while other polls ranged from 16-25 points And the Tory vote seems to have gone to Lab / Lib Dems rather than Reform
so the tory plan to shore up Reform minded voters hasn't change reform votes but is scaring centralist tory voters away.
There may be a proportion of Reform minded voters that won't vote for Rishi, because, well...
It might not be a very large percentage, but announcing all sorts of loony stuff to persuade them to vote Tory won't work.
There's been no noise of this kind but can we be sure it is totally absent?
That doesn't excuse him being crap, mind, which is the main reason for the poll ratings.
The "positive" poll is coming from Redfield and Wilton, the scamps.
Being above twenty percent is seen as positive by the Conservatives.
Guido was, however inadvertently, spreading a rumour that turned out to not be true.
That polling is bad - very bad for the Tories. It's almost the worst ever polling for the Tories by Survation has a Labour lead well above where it was before (they clearly state their tory lead has historically been a steady 17-18 points while other polls ranged from 16-25 points And the Tory vote seems to have gone to Lab / Lib Dems rather than Reform
so the tory plan to shore up Reform minded voters hasn't change reform votes but is scaring centralist tory voters away.
There may be a proportion of Reform minded voters that won't vote for Rishi, because, well...
It might not be a very large percentage, but announcing all sorts of loony stuff to persuade them to vote Tory won't work.
There's been no noise of this kind but can we be sure it is totally absent?
That doesn't excuse him being crap, mind, which is the main reason for the poll ratings.
I'm looking at the Redford sample data and only 20% of the 2019 vote has switched to Reform, the same percentage have switched to Labour.
Worse (for the Tories) 82% of the Brexit party vote in 2019 are voting for Reform - I don't see that many swing votes in the Reform electorate. At best for the Tories they don't turn up and vote.
Today's We Think has Lab lead up 2 at 25 SKS landslide
Guido's confirmed a positive poll for the Tories
It shows Massive Johnson would be doing even worse?
Positive from the Tories' perspective then. Small blue lead?
Over whom?
Everyone else? Like, leading the polls? Certainly the rumour that Guido’s presenting
I am not seeing that on the Guido Twitter feed, just the report of a rumour there is a positive poll for the Tories. But maybe I am not picking all the Tweets up. Anyway, Survation would see to be the obvious contender as it had Labour on 48 last week with the Greens on 2, so that looked like a significant outlier and Labour's number is almost certain to go down. If ythat is accompanied by a rise in the Tory number, it would certainly be interesting.
Must R&W and/or JL Partners.
JL Partners is the most Tory-leaning of the pack at the moment, their last poll had Labour on 41%, Conservatives on 26% and Reform on 13% so maybe Con+Ref>Lab?
Con 29%, Reform 10% or something similar would be my expectation. That doesn't actually help the tories as much as they hope though
My guess is some people vote Tory with the biggest clothes peg on their nose in history, just to ensure Labour don't have a landslide with zero opposition.
It's going to take a lot of people doing that to solve the tory party problem - I can't see that many people willing to vote with a clothes peg on their nose...
Interesting as seems to confirm the core vote rationale.
I thought the figures for all would be lower in support. Suggests it’s not quite the toxic policy suggested, though doesn’t seem to have had any impact thus far.
Interesting as seems to confirm the core vote rationale.
I thought the figures for all would be lower in support. Suggests it’s not quite the toxic policy suggested, though doesn’t seem to have had any impact thus far.
It's pretty much what I thought to be honest.
Of course the people that won't have to do ever do it, support it.
I think most of us were expecting the gap to narrow but what if it…. doesn’t?
Some time to go yet, but the idea that “a campaign will focus minds” doesn’t seem to have been true, at least yet.
At some stage we are either going to have to make a call that either a) the polls are wrong and overstating the Labour lead as it was for much of the time in 1997/2001 or b) the polls are right and… well, the Tories are properly stuffed aren’t they?
On one hand I want to see the Tories destroyed on the other it’s not good for democracy if a party has a massive majority.
I live in hope that one day we’ll get PR and then voters can just vote for whoever they like .
Bit of data mining Survation have not changed their questions from 'if there were a GE tomorrow' Redfield are now asking about July 4, and are now prompting for WPB
Labour MP @RachaelMaskell : “We must keep going [with mass migration] until we really are at saturation point, because what does it matter if we have to wait another week for a hospital visit? Or if our class sizes are slightly bigger, or if our city is slightly fuller? What does it matter if things are slightly more challenging, if we have to pay a little bit more into the system? Surely it is worth it.”
Darren Grimes literally sharing deep fakes now.
And the worrying thing is how his supporters and responders believe it! Worrying!
It's a video from the BBC. It's not fake, just from 2015:
Isn't it crazy that Labour MPs have such extreme views on immigration that even Labour supporters think they must be ridiculous enough to be deepfakes?
Hang on, I thought I heard on here on Sunday that 100% of the country was against it?
Even stupid policies have their audience. The question is whether it'll push more votes in crucial areas to them rather than away. I'd suggest not many reform votes will have been won by it, but it'll push up youth turnout and lead to suburban parents being pushed away as well.
Carroll’s lawyers have said they’re suing again over this tweet.
Meechan has difficult decisions to make about what to do about the repeated breaches of his court order. He really should jail him for a period now. He has had plenty of warnings.
It's not clear to me that the above breaches the gag order. Looks like potential trouble on the old repeated defamation front, but that's not Meechan's business is it?
The tweet is about Carroll, not Daniels, so it doesn’t breach Meechan’s order, no.
Errr: he does slag off the Judge, though. Which could prejudice the Jury.
The "positive" poll is coming from Redfield and Wilton, the scamps.
Being above twenty percent is seen as positive by the Conservatives.
Guido was, however inadvertently, spreading a rumour that turned out to not be true.
That polling is bad - very bad for the Tories. It's almost the worst ever polling for the Tories by Survation has a Labour lead well above where it was before (they clearly state their tory lead has historically been a steady 17-18 points while other polls ranged from 16-25 points And the Tory vote seems to have gone to Lab / Lib Dems rather than Reform
so the tory plan to shore up Reform minded voters hasn't change reform votes but is scaring centralist tory voters away.
There may be a proportion of Reform minded voters that won't vote for Rishi, because, well...
It might not be a very large percentage, but announcing all sorts of loony stuff to persuade them to vote Tory won't work.
There's been no noise of this kind but can we be sure it is totally absent?
That doesn't excuse him being crap, mind, which is the main reason for the poll ratings.
I'm looking at the Redford sample data and only 20% of the 2019 vote has switched to Reform, the same percentage have switched to Labour.
Worse (for the Tories) 82% of the Brexit party vote in 2019 are voting for Reform - I don't see that many swing votes in the Reform electorate. At best for the Tories they don't turn up and vote.
20% of the 2019 vote could change near wipeout to a mere landslide. I wouldn't dismiss that as insignificant.
Hang on, I thought I heard on here on Sunday that 100% of the country was against it?
I think as a policy it's genius, it's targeted squarely at the elderly and I said so a few days ago.
It's an appalling policy and I hate it - but politically it makes sense.
It's an easy one for the doorstep communication on most houses with pensioners in. One clear thing the Tory candidate can say to the question - what will you do: "yeh, well, we'll bring back national service".
Appallingly cynical for the core vote most of whom are actually too f*cking young to have actually done national service in 1950s.
I hear some Labour candidates who are now councillors are being asked by Labour to resign their council seats at once so that ensuing council by-election can also be held on 4 July (& thereby boost turnout no doubt). Please DM me if you know of any cases of this happening.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 1m Understand Angela Rayner claiming she's been cleared by HMRC after investigation at her request. Fine. All she needs to do is publish the full communication to that effect to her from HMRC.
The "positive" poll is coming from Redfield and Wilton, the scamps.
Being above twenty percent is seen as positive by the Conservatives.
Guido was, however inadvertently, spreading a rumour that turned out to not be true.
That polling is bad - very bad for the Tories. It's almost the worst ever polling for the Tories by Survation has a Labour lead well above where it was before (they clearly state their tory lead has historically been a steady 17-18 points while other polls ranged from 16-25 points And the Tory vote seems to have gone to Lab / Lib Dems rather than Reform
so the tory plan to shore up Reform minded voters hasn't change reform votes but is scaring centralist tory voters away.
There may be a proportion of Reform minded voters that won't vote for Rishi, because, well...
It might not be a very large percentage, but announcing all sorts of loony stuff to persuade them to vote Tory won't work.
There's been no noise of this kind but can we be sure it is totally absent?
That doesn't excuse him being crap, mind, which is the main reason for the poll ratings.
Yes there is that - esp if we're talking about the Reform crowd. The same applies to his size. Not his height as such, more the all round tiny-ness. You don't like to think these things are factors, but this doesn't mean they aren't.
Hang on, I thought I heard on here on Sunday that 100% of the country was against it?
Even stupid policies have their audience. The question is whether it'll push more votes in crucial areas to them rather than away. I'd suggest not many reform votes will have been won by it, but it'll push up youth turnout and lead to suburban parents being pushed away as well.
Do we need to post the Yes Minister link again?
It also really does not stand up to scrutiny and as such is kind of a shorthand for the sloppy, incoherent desperation of team Sunak.
Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
Would be the first single figure lead since the Trussterfuck if so, and beat the lowest lead in the 2001 run in. The 'adjusters' are breaking better for the blues - MiC both UK and Scotland, JL (perhaps), Opinium. If so you might expect the first Savanta and BMG to be better looking for them. Neither have reported yet. The Nowcasters are basically as you were
Interesting as seems to confirm the core vote rationale.
I thought the figures for all would be lower in support. Suggests it’s not quite the toxic policy suggested, though doesn’t seem to have had any impact thus far.
It's pretty much what I thought to be honest.
Of course the people that won't have to do ever do it, support it.
Also the people that support it never did it in the first place. I blame the old movies like The Dambusters (shame about the black dog..what was he called?) Also tv shows like the Army Game and Get some in. Also the Navy lark on the Wireless!
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 1m Understand Angela Rayner claiming she's been cleared by HMRC after investigation at her request. Fine. All she needs to do is publish the full communication to that effect to her from HMRC.
Isn't it simply too long ago for the HMRC? They only require records for 7 years don't they?
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 1m Understand Angela Rayner claiming she's been cleared by HMRC after investigation at her request. Fine. All she needs to do is publish the full communication to that effect to her from HMRC.
Hodges really needs to move on . Why should Rayner publish anything now . She’s been cleared .
Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
Their most recent poll on 2nd-5th May was Lab 41%, Con 26%, Ref 13%, LD11%. I can just about see how that might change to something like Lab 38%, Con 29%.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 1m Understand Angela Rayner claiming she's been cleared by HMRC after investigation at her request. Fine. All she needs to do is publish the full communication to that effect to her from HMRC.
Hodges really needs to move on . Why should Rayner publish anything now . She’s been cleared .
I think most of us were expecting the gap to narrow but what if it…. doesn’t?
Some time to go yet, but the idea that “a campaign will focus minds” doesn’t seem to have been true, at least yet.
At some stage we are either going to have to make a call that either a) the polls are wrong and overstating the Labour lead as it was for much of the time in 1997/2001 or b) the polls are right and… well, the Tories are properly stuffed aren’t they?
On one hand I want to see the Tories destroyed on the other it’s not good for democracy if a party has a massive majority.
I live in hope that one day we’ll get PR and then voters can just vote for whoever they like .
Would it be that 'bad for democracy'? That is, to have a total womping over a standard issue landslide. In both cases Labour has more or less free rein. Just in the case of a womping for the Tories they end up in a not undeserved competition for their future. They might even end up being replaced by a party who promotes PR or doing so themselves if do so badly it's existential.
If, and it's still a big if, the result is at the Keir Starmer's genie end of the spectrum there'll be plenty of stabilising corrections. Parts of the left that don't like him will feel freer to go off to the Greens or FBPE the Lib Dems.
It always works itself out. The main thing I want to see is the party that's caused so much chaos and misery taught a lesson they won't ever forget. Though they probably end up in a 1997 or Lab 2019 position where recovery their doesn't take nearly long enough.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 1m Understand Angela Rayner claiming she's been cleared by HMRC after investigation at her request. Fine. All she needs to do is publish the full communication to that effect to her from HMRC.
And the original documentation to be submitted for forensic analysis.
Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
Their most recent poll on 2nd-5th May was Lab 41%, Con 26%, Ref 13%, LD11%. I can just about see how that might change to something like Lab 38%, Con 29%.
Way out of line with other pollsters. Do they have much of a track record?
Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
I'll believe that when I see it.
I'm not sure I'll believe it even then.
It wouldn’t be a huge surprise given their last poll. You just need some movement from Reform and a small drop in Labours share .
I mean that I'd need to show up in multiple polls to believe it.
I genuinely think pollsters have a real problem this time - the electorate want to decisively eject the Tories but also not grant Labour a totally open goal.
I think it's perhaps slightly more fluid than we think.
There are currently 650 Parliamentary constituencies in the UK. Fully 48% (310) had already reached the gerontocratic [defined as 55+] midpoint in 2020, with more than 50% of the weighted vote share in each having gone grey.13 By the next election, [Now] we will certainly have reached the point where the majority of constituencies have gone grey.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 1m Understand Angela Rayner claiming she's been cleared by HMRC after investigation at her request. Fine. All she needs to do is publish the full communication to that effect to her from HMRC.
Isn't it simply too long ago for the HMRC? They only require records for 7 years don't they?
It depends on what they suspect the offense could be . If they suspect a blatant lie to avoid tax rather than a mistake I thought they could go further back .
I do think there's a possibility the polls could be wrong. But I'm not yet convinced about it.
The narrow JL lead reminds me of a poll before GE19 of a six point Labour lead. I jumped up and down with glee, "Corbyn will win". He lost in a landslide.
Hang on, I thought I heard on here on Sunday that 100% of the country was against it?
No. You heard, rightly, that reactionary oldies who hate the young and enjoy making their lives worse would support it - even though it was unworkable - while those whose kids, or who themselves would have to do it would see it for the insult it is.
Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
Their most recent poll on 2nd-5th May was Lab 41%, Con 26%, Ref 13%, LD11%. I can just about see how that might change to something like Lab 38%, Con 29%.
Way out of line with other pollsters. Do they have much of a track record?
I believe they're fairly new, the chap running it used to run polling for the government?
Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
I'll believe that when I see it.
I'm not sure I'll believe it even then.
It wouldn’t be a huge surprise given their last poll. You just need some movement from Reform and a small drop in Labours share .
I mean that I'd need to show up in multiple polls to believe it.
I genuinely think pollsters have a real problem this time - the electorate want to decisively eject the Tories but also not grant Labour a totally open goal.
I think it's perhaps slightly more fluid than we think.
It's the old problem - we each only get one vote.
If I definitely want a change but don't want to give Labour a 100+ landslide, and I am in a marginal, what do I do?
00:00 Intro 04:50 Would you pass the Eton entry exam today? 06:36 Parental heritage and upbringing 11:25 In simple terms what was good and bad about the British Empire 13:29 Why has the British Empire taken such a hold on the right wing psyche 19:33 Rory and Kwasi weren't popular at Eton 21:05 What are the pros of Liz Truss? 23:58 How Boris Johnson's premiership started good but lost its way 28:18 Why did you want a career in politics? 33:08 Would you give advice to Rachel Reeves? 36:32 Thoughts on Keir Starmer going more left and now being more right 40:41 Why there has to be an element of populism in the Conservative Party 41:46 Talk us through ethnicity in British Politics 45:23 Do you think the Rwanda plan is working? 46:25 Net Zero climate goals and how can we financially make it 49:46 Importance of not being so reliant on China 51:15 Rory and Kwasi entered parliament at the same time but had different experiences, one is a romantic and the other a realist 1:00:06 What was a bigger mistake, backing Liz Truss or backing Boris Johnson? 1:00:55 Did you not have an operation to become Prime Minister? 1:02:45 Role as Chancellor - the pace was absurd and it moved 150 mph 1:22:14 Why didn't you support Rishi Sunak? 1:23:48 Can you see a way that Labour won't win at the next General Election? 1:30:30 Who are the historians that have impacted you? 1:36:54 Do you believe in virtue? 1:38:23 Outro 1:39:27 Debrief
I do think there's a possibility the polls could be wrong. But I'm not yet convinced about it.
The narrow JL lead reminds me of a poll before GE19 of a six point Labour lead. I jumped up and down with glee, "Corbyn will win". He lost in a landslide.
Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
Their most recent poll on 2nd-5th May was Lab 41%, Con 26%, Ref 13%, LD11%. I can just about see how that might change to something like Lab 38%, Con 29%.
Way out of line with other pollsters. Do they have much of a track record?
I haven't checked, but you expect one or two big outliers during an election campaign of course.
Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
I have a certaind degree of confidence building in my Labour 38%, Con 33% prediction...
Hearing via several Con MPs that the response out there is nowhere near as bad as the 20% Labour leads.
That will be because, unless those Conservative MPs have gone rogue, they'll be canvassing historic pledges and the CCHQ persuasion audiences - which will be more pro Conservative than the population at large.
00:00 Intro 04:50 Would you pass the Eton entry exam today? 06:36 Parental heritage and upbringing 11:25 In simple terms what was good and bad about the British Empire 13:29 Why has the British Empire taken such a hold on the right wing psyche 19:33 Rory and Kwasi weren't popular at Eton 21:05 What are the pros of Liz Truss? 23:58 How Boris Johnson's premiership started good but lost its way 28:18 Why did you want a career in politics? 33:08 Would you give advice to Rachel Reeves? 36:32 Thoughts on Keir Starmer going more left and now being more right 40:41 Why there has to be an element of populism in the Conservative Party 41:46 Talk us through ethnicity in British Politics 45:23 Do you think the Rwanda plan is working? 46:25 Net Zero climate goals and how can we financially make it 49:46 Importance of not being so reliant on China 51:15 Rory and Kwasi entered parliament at the same time but had different experiences, one is a romantic and the other a realist 1:00:06 What was a bigger mistake, backing Liz Truss or backing Boris Johnson? 1:00:55 Did you not have an operation to become Prime Minister? 1:02:45 Role as Chancellor - the pace was absurd and it moved 150 mph 1:22:14 Why didn't you support Rishi Sunak? 1:23:48 Can you see a way that Labour won't win at the next General Election? 1:30:30 Who are the historians that have impacted you? 1:36:54 Do you believe in virtue? 1:38:23 Outro 1:39:27 Debrief
It was interesting but the overall impression I came away with was there is something missing from his character, some failure to acknowledge actions have consequences.
Single figure Labour lead with JL Partners, apparently. That's the one everyone will focus on.
I'll believe that when I see it.
I'm not sure I'll believe it even then.
It wouldn’t be a huge surprise given their last poll. You just need some movement from Reform and a small drop in Labours share .
I mean that I'd need to show up in multiple polls to believe it.
I genuinely think pollsters have a real problem this time - the electorate want to decisively eject the Tories but also not grant Labour a totally open goal.
I think it's perhaps slightly more fluid than we think.
It's the old problem - we each only get one vote.
If I definitely want a change but don't want to give Labour a 100+ landslide, and I am in a marginal, what do I do?
If you are in a marginal then vote tactically. If in target seat 200 vote for someone else.
I am in a seat that would only go Labour when the sun freezes over, so free to vote how I choose.
I think BatteryCorrectHorse is probably right about seats like Basingstoke going to Labour. Another one might be the new Earley and Woodley seat which is just outside Reading.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 1m Understand Angela Rayner claiming she's been cleared by HMRC after investigation at her request. Fine. All she needs to do is publish the full communication to that effect to her from HMRC.
Isn't it simply too long ago for the HMRC? They only require records for 7 years don't they?
Not sure it is quite as clear cut as that for a property asset.
I think most of us were expecting the gap to narrow but what if it…. doesn’t?
Some time to go yet, but the idea that “a campaign will focus minds” doesn’t seem to have been true, at least yet.
At some stage we are either going to have to make a call that either a) the polls are wrong and overstating the Labour lead as it was for much of the time in 1997/2001 or b) the polls are right and… well, the Tories are properly stuffed aren’t they?
On one hand I want to see the Tories destroyed on the other it’s not good for democracy if a party has a massive majority.
I live in hope that one day we’ll get PR and then voters can just vote for whoever they like .
Would it be that 'bad for democracy'? That is, to have a total womping over a standard issue landslide. In both cases Labour has more or less free rein. Just in the case of a womping for the Tories they end up in a not undeserved competition for their future. They might even end up being replaced by a party who promotes PR or doing so themselves if do so badly it's existential.
If, and it's still a big if, the result is at the Keir Starmer's genie end of the spectrum there'll be plenty of stabilising corrections. Parts of the left that don't like him will feel freer to go off to the Greens or FBPE the Lib Dems.
It always works itself out. The main thing I want to see is the party that's caused so much chaos and misery taught a lesson they won't ever forget. Though they probably end up in a 1997 or Lab 2019 position where recovery their doesn't take nearly long enough.
Whilst I sympathise with the desire for parties that screw up to have extreme electoral vengeance visited upon them I think you have to be careful about it. Next to not getting what you wished for the saddest thing is getting it.
Arguably the Tories travails began with the glee with which they contemplated Corbyn being elected Labour leader. They got their desire and eventually the large majority they felt it would gift them but it did so without them having to do any of the hard work of working out the new electoral geography or coming to terms with changes in demography. The consequences could be near fatal.
Labour winning in such a way that they are unchallenged for a decade would be bad news particularly for the Labour Party.
Comments
Which way do undecided voters (11% of the sample, when weighted by likelihood to vote) say they lean closest towards voting? (25-27 May)
20% Conservative
19% Labour
9% Lib Dem
9% Reform
5% Green
12% Others
27% lean closest towards NOT voting than to voting.
https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1795487775065510282
I would say it is over.
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1030068933693025
I'd say there's still a decent level of fluidity in some of the minor party picks that's yet to develop.
Not sure everyone's tuned to the election yet.
Some time to go yet, but the idea that “a campaign will focus minds” doesn’t seem to have been true, at least yet.
At some stage we are either going to have to make a call that either a) the polls are wrong and overstating the Labour lead as it was for much of the time in 1997/2001 or b) the polls are right and… well, the Tories are properly stuffed aren’t they?
It might not be a very large percentage, but announcing all sorts of loony stuff to persuade them to vote Tory won't work.
There's been no noise of this kind but can we be sure it is totally absent?
That doesn't excuse him being crap, mind, which is the main reason for the poll ratings.
NEW: First Westminster voting intention from the campaign period.
23 point Labour lead.
LAB 47 (-1)
CON 24 (-3)
LD 11 (+3)
GRN 3 (+1)
RFM 8 (-)
SNP 3 (-)
OTH 4 (-)
All Britons: 47% support / 45% oppose
18-24yr olds: 27% support / 65% oppose
65+yr olds: 63% support / 31% oppose
https://x.com/YouGov/status/1795487724083810337
Worse (for the Tories) 82% of the Brexit party vote in 2019 are voting for Reform - I don't see that many swing votes in the Reform electorate. At best for the Tories they don't turn up and vote.
I thought the figures for all would be lower in support. Suggests it’s not quite the toxic policy suggested, though doesn’t seem to have had any impact thus far.
Of course the people that won't have to do ever do it, support it.
It's an appalling policy and I hate it - but politically it makes sense.
I live in hope that one day we’ll get PR and then voters can just vote for whoever they like .
Survation have not changed their questions from 'if there were a GE tomorrow'
Redfield are now asking about July 4, and are now prompting for WPB
Capital Punishment?
bring back the stocks?
send the Navy after the boats?
Westminster VI, By Age (25-27 May):
Labour's lead by age group:
18-24: 29%
25-34: 35%
35-44: 29%
45-54: 24%
55-64: 13%
65+: 7%
https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1795489334029693083
Appallingly cynical for the core vote most of whom are actually too f*cking young to have actually done national service in 1950s.
https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1795449594517532996
Labour leader has agreed to take part in just two debates — the first hosted by ITV — while the prime minister wants as many as possible
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/general-election-2024-latest-news-rishi-sunak-starmer-labour-d05p82tx9
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
1m
Understand Angela Rayner claiming she's been cleared by HMRC after investigation at her request. Fine. All she needs to do is publish the full communication to that effect to her from HMRC.
It also really does not stand up to scrutiny and as such is kind of a shorthand for the sloppy, incoherent desperation of team Sunak.
The 'adjusters' are breaking better for the blues - MiC both UK and Scotland, JL (perhaps), Opinium. If so you might expect the first Savanta and BMG to be better looking for them. Neither have reported yet.
The Nowcasters are basically as you were
Keir Starmer Approval Rating (25-27 May):
Approve: 38% (-3)
Disapprove: 29% (+2)
Net: +9% (-5)
Changes +/- 19 May
https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1795492869727301772
I'm not sure I'll believe it even then.
https://x.com/JLPartnersPolls/status/1795487424841462009
It wouldn’t be a huge surprise given their last poll. You just need some movement from Reform and a small drop in Labours share .
If, and it's still a big if, the result is at the Keir Starmer's genie end of the spectrum there'll be plenty of stabilising corrections. Parts of the left that don't like him will feel freer to go off to the Greens or FBPE the Lib Dems.
It always works itself out. The main thing I want to see is the party that's caused so much chaos and misery taught a lesson they won't ever forget. Though they probably end up in a 1997 or Lab 2019 position where recovery their doesn't take nearly long enough.
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I genuinely think pollsters have a real problem this time - the electorate want to decisively eject the Tories but also not grant Labour a totally open goal.
I think it's perhaps slightly more fluid than we think.
20s: 50%
55+: 81%
There are currently 650 Parliamentary constituencies in the UK. Fully 48% (310)
had already reached the gerontocratic [defined as 55+] midpoint in 2020, with more than 50%
of the weighted vote share in each having gone grey.13 By the next election, [Now] we
will certainly have reached the point where the majority of constituencies have
gone grey.
https://cps.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/CPS_JUSTICE_FOR_THE_YOUNG-2.pdf
Or am I mistaken?
The narrow JL lead reminds me of a poll before GE19 of a six point Labour lead. I jumped up and down with glee, "Corbyn will win". He lost in a landslide.
If I definitely want a change but don't want to give Labour a 100+ landslide, and I am in a marginal, what do I do?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98z_Jvhbwvc
00:00 Intro
04:50 Would you pass the Eton entry exam today?
06:36 Parental heritage and upbringing
11:25 In simple terms what was good and bad about the British Empire
13:29 Why has the British Empire taken such a hold on the right wing psyche
19:33 Rory and Kwasi weren't popular at Eton
21:05 What are the pros of Liz Truss?
23:58 How Boris Johnson's premiership started good but lost its way
28:18 Why did you want a career in politics?
33:08 Would you give advice to Rachel Reeves?
36:32 Thoughts on Keir Starmer going more left and now being more right
40:41 Why there has to be an element of populism in the Conservative Party
41:46 Talk us through ethnicity in British Politics
45:23 Do you think the Rwanda plan is working?
46:25 Net Zero climate goals and how can we financially make it
49:46 Importance of not being so reliant on China
51:15 Rory and Kwasi entered parliament at the same time but had different experiences, one is a romantic and the other a realist
1:00:06 What was a bigger mistake, backing Liz Truss or backing Boris Johnson?
1:00:55 Did you not have an operation to become Prime Minister?
1:02:45 Role as Chancellor - the pace was absurd and it moved 150 mph
1:22:14 Why didn't you support Rishi Sunak?
1:23:48 Can you see a way that Labour won't win at the next General Election?
1:30:30 Who are the historians that have impacted you?
1:36:54 Do you believe in virtue?
1:38:23 Outro
1:39:27 Debrief
Hearing via several Con MPs that the response out there is nowhere near as bad as the 20% Labour leads.
Westminster VI, By Age (25-27 May):
Labour's lead by age group:
18-24: 29%
25-34: 35%
35-44: 29%
45-54: 24%
55-64: 13%
65+: 7%
He needs to give the performance of his life, and rein in the tetchyness.
Captain Mainwaring...
I am in a seat that would only go Labour when the sun freezes over, so free to vote how I choose.
Edit: your right. For some reason I saw an EC graphic which had it as eight.
Arguably the Tories travails began with the glee with which they contemplated Corbyn being elected Labour leader. They got their desire and eventually the large majority they felt it would gift them but it did so without them having to do any of the hard work of working out the new electoral geography or coming to terms with changes in demography. The consequences could be near fatal.
Labour winning in such a way that they are unchallenged for a decade would be bad news particularly for the Labour Party.