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Bookmark this post and these tweets – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,801
edited June 8 in General
imageBookmark this post and these tweets – politicalbetting.com

New post for @focaldataHQ covering the effects of pollster approach to undecided voters, and outlining what our in-house approach will be for this election campaign.https://t.co/hEjtikXkKp

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,463
    eek said:

    First as I was with that chart on here...

    Just updated the thread to give you a hat-tip.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,665
    "The force added that "inquiries are still ongoing, but his death is not thought to be suspicious"."

    Hmmm....

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c7223kwzp4no
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,456
    Thanks for the header, @TSE .

    Even if you dethreaded me by one. Grr.

    FPT:
    ToryJim said:

    MattW said:

    DM_Andy said:

    MattW said:

    DM_Andy said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Two more Labour retirements in very safe London seats:

    Virendra Sharma in Ealing Southall (winner of the by-election in 2007)
    https://x.com/VirendraSharma/status/1795139143908938074

    John Cryer in Leyton & Wanstead (part of the 1997 intake, recent PLP chair, married to Ellie Reeves)
    https://x.com/JohnCryerMP/status/1795166070745014331

    As it happens, Labour will need to appoint a whole bunch of peers to make up for the whole bunch of peers appointed by the Conservatives.
    Or maybe just maybe turn the upper chamber into something mostly/fully democratically elected. One of the arguments for throwing out most of the hereditary peers was to reduce the bloated membership of the House of Lords, it was around 1,200 and the reform reduced that down to about 550, now it's closing in on 800 and ever growing.
    The House of Lords is smaller than it was in 2018. 792 then to 783 now.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45981790

    So "ever-growing" is not correct.

    I do not know what it peaked at, however. I suspect it has been basically flat in numbers for quite a long time.
    There's still the Dissolution Honours and possibly Sunak's Resignation Honours to come in.
    "No Dissolution Honours as we are reforming the Lords" in the Labour Manifesto. :wink:

    Vote winner?
    I’m not sure Lords reform or honours moves many votes. I also think there are very good reasons for wanting to reward certain players in the political system particularly those in the background.
    OK.

    I might allow Honours, but no Dissolute Lords.

    If it is a reward, an MBE or other gong fits better.

    Appointments to the Lords should be more about what they can contribute in the future, albeit that may be informed by the past.

  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,839
    Shame they don't include themselves on the cheat sheet! From the linked article, they seem to be in the 'Squeeze' group
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,248
    eek said:

    First as I was with that chart on here...

    Edit to add -the important thing to remember is that in most election swingback occurs so the polling figures from Yellow / Green pollsters will be more accurate, however in 1997 that wasn't the case and the Red posters were more accurate.

    Take your pick but one side (swingback) gives the Tories 100-200 seats and the other anything from 20-140...

    Swingback, you say?

    So far, it's striking how little that dog has barked. These graphs are up to late March 2024, but not a lot has happened since then ...



    (I hope that's using my ration well.)

    https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1773858624411975958
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,356
    @DPJHodges

    Given his target demographic, this was probably more important than the football cones...

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1795460657753526560
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,124
    FPT

    Re BBC coverage of election night:

    BBC radio coverage for me this year, with a glance or two at how Times Radio/LBC is getting on too (if still awake). Age creeping on, and pictures better, and no cowboys illustrating swing by doing something from a western or drunks on the Thames. can we hope that Jim Naughtie will be in the mix?
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,286
    Thanks TSE.

    "What could go wrong for Labour?
    Shadow cabinet ministers believe the biggest risk is that voters regard the election as a foregone conclusion.
    By George Eaton"

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/election-2024/2024/05/what-could-go-wrong-for-labour
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    MattW said:

    Thanks for the header, @TSE .

    Even if you dethreaded me by one. Grr.

    FPT:

    ToryJim said:

    MattW said:

    DM_Andy said:

    MattW said:

    DM_Andy said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Two more Labour retirements in very safe London seats:

    Virendra Sharma in Ealing Southall (winner of the by-election in 2007)
    https://x.com/VirendraSharma/status/1795139143908938074

    John Cryer in Leyton & Wanstead (part of the 1997 intake, recent PLP chair, married to Ellie Reeves)
    https://x.com/JohnCryerMP/status/1795166070745014331

    As it happens, Labour will need to appoint a whole bunch of peers to make up for the whole bunch of peers appointed by the Conservatives.
    Or maybe just maybe turn the upper chamber into something mostly/fully democratically elected. One of the arguments for throwing out most of the hereditary peers was to reduce the bloated membership of the House of Lords, it was around 1,200 and the reform reduced that down to about 550, now it's closing in on 800 and ever growing.
    The House of Lords is smaller than it was in 2018. 792 then to 783 now.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45981790

    So "ever-growing" is not correct.

    I do not know what it peaked at, however. I suspect it has been basically flat in numbers for quite a long time.
    There's still the Dissolution Honours and possibly Sunak's Resignation Honours to come in.
    "No Dissolution Honours as we are reforming the Lords" in the Labour Manifesto. :wink:

    Vote winner?
    I’m not sure Lords reform or honours moves many votes. I also think there are very good reasons for wanting to reward certain players in the political system particularly those in the background.
    OK.

    I might allow Honours, but no Dissolute Lords.

    If it is a reward, an MBE or other gong fits better.

    Appointments to the Lords should be more about what they can contribute in the future, albeit that may be informed by the past.

    I’d be happy for there not to be Peerages in the dissolution honours. It does strike me as weird that an MP retires or loses their seat at the election and then a few weeks later is stuffed in the Lords.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,050
    Which pollsters were most accurate for the Mayorals and locals?
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,863
    FPT
    DM_Andy said:



    eek said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Doctor Who and Sherlock writer Steven Moffat: "our current government basically found somebody else's mandate down the back of a sofa and that's not how it's supposed to work."


    Dr Who is a load of shite, and Brown didn't win a general election. Apart from that, well done.
    He said Boris won an election which he did.
    He also says "we have a PM who not only didn't win an election".
    Same as Brown. And Dr Who is a load of shite.
    It's a misunderstanding of our electoral system - Rishi has won multiple elections in Richmondshire and there is no such thing as an election for PM, they are appointed based on the party whose candidates won most (local seats).

    Even the fact he didn't win the party vote makes little sense - Rishi won the vote of the Tory MPs only to lose it to in the membership vote...
    That argument sounds bizarre to me. The rules of the Tory Leadership is that the MPs pick the top two and then the members pick between them, you can't just ignore the rules and say that Sunak didn't lose because he come first in the first part of the contest. Who's to say that between Truss and Sunak the Tory MPs wouldn't have gone for Truss anyway?

    The way things were originally structured was MPs get elected to represent their constituents and they then elect a leader who is Prime Minister.

    That was changed when the membership was given a say in picking the leader of the party but my view of that has always been that members can have a say in opposition but only MPs should have a say when the party is in Government.

    What we saw in 2022 was a leader being elected by a small minority of the public who then enacted polices that that small minority loved but within 2 months almost destroyed the economy...
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    edited May 28

    Which pollsters were most accurate for the Mayorals and locals?

    Bugger misread it, that joke doesn't work.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,665
    eek said:

    FPT

    DM_Andy said:



    eek said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Doctor Who and Sherlock writer Steven Moffat: "our current government basically found somebody else's mandate down the back of a sofa and that's not how it's supposed to work."


    Dr Who is a load of shite, and Brown didn't win a general election. Apart from that, well done.
    He said Boris won an election which he did.
    He also says "we have a PM who not only didn't win an election".
    Same as Brown. And Dr Who is a load of shite.
    It's a misunderstanding of our electoral system - Rishi has won multiple elections in Richmondshire and there is no such thing as an election for PM, they are appointed based on the party whose candidates won most (local seats).

    Even the fact he didn't win the party vote makes little sense - Rishi won the vote of the Tory MPs only to lose it to in the membership vote...
    That argument sounds bizarre to me. The rules of the Tory Leadership is that the MPs pick the top two and then the members pick between them, you can't just ignore the rules and say that Sunak didn't lose because he come first in the first part of the contest. Who's to say that between Truss and Sunak the Tory MPs wouldn't have gone for Truss anyway?

    The way things were originally structured was MPs get elected to represent their constituents and they then elect a leader who is Prime Minister.

    That was changed when the membership was given a say in picking the leader of the party but my view of that has always been that members can have a say in opposition but only MPs should have a say when the party is in Government.

    What we saw in 2022 was a leader being elected by a small minority of the public who then enacted polices that that small minority loved but within 2 months almost destroyed the economy...
    It all seems rather tame compared to the oddity of presidential pardons...
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,863
    edited May 28

    eek said:

    First as I was with that chart on here...

    Edit to add -the important thing to remember is that in most election swingback occurs so the polling figures from Yellow / Green pollsters will be more accurate, however in 1997 that wasn't the case and the Red posters were more accurate.

    Take your pick but one side (swingback) gives the Tories 100-200 seats and the other anything from 20-140...

    Swingback, you say?

    So far, it's striking how little that dog has barked. These graphs are up to late March 2024, but not a lot has happened since then ...



    (I hope that's using my ration well.)

    https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1773858624411975958
    As I said I don't see any sign of swingback so this is an election that looks like 1997.

    However the Tory party are also starting from a far worse position, have a right wing protest party running against them that didn't exist (in any form) in 1997 (Reform) so it's very likely that the Tory party will do seriously badly here which is why I took Bet365's offer of 25/1 for less than 50 Tory seats as a great bet.

    Now we have a long time to go and things may change but I suspect I won't regret the money I staked there....
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,124
    Andy_JS said:

    Thanks TSE.

    "What could go wrong for Labour?
    Shadow cabinet ministers believe the biggest risk is that voters regard the election as a foregone conclusion.
    By George Eaton"

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/election-2024/2024/05/what-could-go-wrong-for-labour

    The risks for Labour are the variables engaging in a pincer movement:

    Getting out the vote
    Ex Tory DKs returning to the Tories
    Ex Tory currently Reform switching to the Tories
    (The above 2 groups total about 5 million voters. That is election shifting numbers)
    Black Swans
    Failure of tactical voting on the centre left
    Someone drops the Ming vase in an important way
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,839
    ydoethur said:

    Which pollsters were most accurate for the Mayorals and locals?

    Bugger misread it, that joke doesn't work.
    Ah, shame :disappointed: And I was going to ask what you were going to do with the ducks.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,356
    @GuidoFawkes

    Rumours sweeping through the Tory Parliamentary party of a positive poll coming shortly...
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,665
    @Leon forgetting that the twins in his own book are both female and identical twins

    https://x.com/thomasknox/status/1795463263490093404
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    Selebian said:

    ydoethur said:

    Which pollsters were most accurate for the Mayorals and locals?

    Bugger misread it, that joke doesn't work.
    Ah, shame :disappointed: And I was going to ask what you were going to do with the ducks.
    Don't ask.

    The answer's potentially eggsplosive.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,073
    Scott_xP said:

    @GuidoFawkes

    Rumours sweeping through the Tory Parliamentary party of a positive poll coming shortly...

    The National Service vs National Disgrace framing is working?
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,839

    @Leon forgetting that the twins in his own book are both female and identical twins

    https://x.com/thomasknox/status/1795463263490093404

    The AI one's a bit naff overall, isn't it? Although that may be due to non-AI text placement by the mysterious STK.
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 982

    eek said:

    FPT

    DM_Andy said:



    eek said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Doctor Who and Sherlock writer Steven Moffat: "our current government basically found somebody else's mandate down the back of a sofa and that's not how it's supposed to work."


    Dr Who is a load of shite, and Brown didn't win a general election. Apart from that, well done.
    He said Boris won an election which he did.
    He also says "we have a PM who not only didn't win an election".
    Same as Brown. And Dr Who is a load of shite.
    It's a misunderstanding of our electoral system - Rishi has won multiple elections in Richmondshire and there is no such thing as an election for PM, they are appointed based on the party whose candidates won most (local seats).

    Even the fact he didn't win the party vote makes little sense - Rishi won the vote of the Tory MPs only to lose it to in the membership vote...
    That argument sounds bizarre to me. The rules of the Tory Leadership is that the MPs pick the top two and then the members pick between them, you can't just ignore the rules and say that Sunak didn't lose because he come first in the first part of the contest. Who's to say that between Truss and Sunak the Tory MPs wouldn't have gone for Truss anyway?

    The way things were originally structured was MPs get elected to represent their constituents and they then elect a leader who is Prime Minister.

    That was changed when the membership was given a say in picking the leader of the party but my view of that has always been that members can have a say in opposition but only MPs should have a say when the party is in Government.

    What we saw in 2022 was a leader being elected by a small minority of the public who then enacted polices that that small minority loved but within 2 months almost destroyed the economy...
    It all seems rather tame compared to the oddity of presidential pardons...
    We do have the royal pardon, there's nothing to stop Rishi Sunak letting anyone he likes out of prison, it's just that we don't do it as much as the Americans do.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,210
    Scott_xP said:

    @GuidoFawkes

    Rumours sweeping through the Tory Parliamentary party of a positive poll coming shortly...

    Death penalty for poll rampers!
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,839
    Scott_xP said:

    @GuidoFawkes

    Rumours sweeping through the Tory Parliamentary party of a positive poll coming shortly...

    It's the hope that gets them in the end :cry:
  • Options
    RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,999

    Scott_xP said:

    @GuidoFawkes

    Rumours sweeping through the Tory Parliamentary party of a positive poll coming shortly...

    The National Service vs National Disgrace framing is working?
    Scott_xP said:

    @GuidoFawkes

    Rumours sweeping through the Tory Parliamentary party of a positive poll coming shortly...

    If the Tories do somehow bring it back to level pegging or - god forbid - winning, I’ll have to rethink my view of modern Britain. Either that or I’m just simply not old enough to yearn for the days of national service and a quadruple locked pension (a pension the likes of us 30 somethings will never have the joy of obtaining)

  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 13,112
    Scott_xP said:

    @GuidoFawkes

    Rumours sweeping through the Tory Parliamentary party of a positive poll coming shortly...

    Could be a Savanta or perhaps the R&W. After nearly a week of unremitting coverage for Sunak and the Party, it would be surprising if there wasn't some small uptick, possibly at the expense of Reform.

    We'll see.

    Could be as valid a rumour as the one about Susan Hall winning the London Mayoral election.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,073
    stodge said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @GuidoFawkes

    Rumours sweeping through the Tory Parliamentary party of a positive poll coming shortly...

    Could be a Savanta or perhaps the R&W. After nearly a week of unremitting coverage for Sunak and the Party, it would be surprising if there wasn't some small uptick, possibly at the expense of Reform.

    We'll see.

    Could be as valid a rumour as the one about Susan Hall winning the London Mayoral election.
    It wouldn't be surprising if Reform's number were suddenly cut in two given that we're now coming up to a real election.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,665
    Selebian said:

    @Leon forgetting that the twins in his own book are both female and identical twins

    https://x.com/thomasknox/status/1795463263490093404

    The AI one's a bit naff overall, isn't it? Although that may be due to non-AI text placement by the mysterious STK.
    It's naff. But it amuses me that he thinks a book where the central conceit is of identical twins being confused is best illustrated with people who appear non-identical.

    Indeed, the cover of the book I got shows it much better:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ice_Twins#/media/File:The_Ice_Twins.jpg

    Two identical figures, one disappearing. It works well for the story.

    (I don't think there's particular spoilers in what I've written, in case anyone wants to read the book.)
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,456

    Scott_xP said:

    @GuidoFawkes

    Rumours sweeping through the Tory Parliamentary party of a positive poll coming shortly...

    The National Service vs National Disgrace framing is working?
    Scott_xP said:

    @GuidoFawkes

    Rumours sweeping through the Tory Parliamentary party of a positive poll coming shortly...

    If the Tories do somehow bring it back to level pegging or - god forbid - winning, I’ll have to rethink my view of modern Britain. Either that or I’m just simply not old enough to yearn for the days of national service and a quadruple locked pension (a pension the likes of us 30 somethings will never have the joy of obtaining)

    By then the quadruple lock will have done its job and you will have the whole thing.
  • Options
    CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 383
    So I have strong reservations about the Opinium manipulation of "don't knows".

    Focal Data explains: "ASSUMING (sic) 2019 Conservatives still prefer the current government to the Labour Party (THEY DO) [eh???? how do you know that????], this exclusion will, generally speaking, reduce the headline vote share for Rishi Sunak's party."

    https://www.focaldata.com/blog/why-do-pollsters-disagree-on-the-size-of-labours-lead

    What is being written here is pure nonsense. What they need to explain is exactly how they came to determine that they prefer cons to labour and they can't - BECAUSE THEN THEY WOULD CEASE TO BE UNDECIDEDS......

    From a research methodological this makes zero sense (I am a tenured academic marketer at a major London business school btw). On the one hand they are making an assumption and then declaring intrinsic knowledge about voting intentions.... which is exactly what we do not know. Let me say again: the whole point of don't knows is that they don't know and we don't know. Extrapolating from past behaviour which way they, on average, will tend will not work. I certainly do not think this is rigorous.

    I would emphaticallyn not draw substantial conclusions from assumptions about behaviour among don't knows in this set up. In a research context I would probably need additional qualitative data to understand the underlying dimensions which in respondent sensemaking is driving uncertainty and how they assess the relative consequences of apathy versus a wasted vote. But this isn't science: at best it is guessing at worst it is metaphysics dressed up as data.

    Buyer beware.....
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,665
    DM_Andy said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    DM_Andy said:



    eek said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Doctor Who and Sherlock writer Steven Moffat: "our current government basically found somebody else's mandate down the back of a sofa and that's not how it's supposed to work."


    Dr Who is a load of shite, and Brown didn't win a general election. Apart from that, well done.
    He said Boris won an election which he did.
    He also says "we have a PM who not only didn't win an election".
    Same as Brown. And Dr Who is a load of shite.
    It's a misunderstanding of our electoral system - Rishi has won multiple elections in Richmondshire and there is no such thing as an election for PM, they are appointed based on the party whose candidates won most (local seats).

    Even the fact he didn't win the party vote makes little sense - Rishi won the vote of the Tory MPs only to lose it to in the membership vote...
    That argument sounds bizarre to me. The rules of the Tory Leadership is that the MPs pick the top two and then the members pick between them, you can't just ignore the rules and say that Sunak didn't lose because he come first in the first part of the contest. Who's to say that between Truss and Sunak the Tory MPs wouldn't have gone for Truss anyway?

    The way things were originally structured was MPs get elected to represent their constituents and they then elect a leader who is Prime Minister.

    That was changed when the membership was given a say in picking the leader of the party but my view of that has always been that members can have a say in opposition but only MPs should have a say when the party is in Government.

    What we saw in 2022 was a leader being elected by a small minority of the public who then enacted polices that that small minority loved but within 2 months almost destroyed the economy...
    It all seems rather tame compared to the oddity of presidential pardons...
    We do have the royal pardon, there's nothing to stop Rishi Sunak letting anyone he likes out of prison, it's just that we don't do it as much as the Americans do.
    How often is the royal pardon used?

    The US's presidential pardon is of a different scale:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_pardoned_or_granted_clemency_by_the_president_of_the_United_States
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 982

    DM_Andy said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    DM_Andy said:



    eek said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Doctor Who and Sherlock writer Steven Moffat: "our current government basically found somebody else's mandate down the back of a sofa and that's not how it's supposed to work."


    Dr Who is a load of shite, and Brown didn't win a general election. Apart from that, well done.
    He said Boris won an election which he did.
    He also says "we have a PM who not only didn't win an election".
    Same as Brown. And Dr Who is a load of shite.
    It's a misunderstanding of our electoral system - Rishi has won multiple elections in Richmondshire and there is no such thing as an election for PM, they are appointed based on the party whose candidates won most (local seats).

    Even the fact he didn't win the party vote makes little sense - Rishi won the vote of the Tory MPs only to lose it to in the membership vote...
    That argument sounds bizarre to me. The rules of the Tory Leadership is that the MPs pick the top two and then the members pick between them, you can't just ignore the rules and say that Sunak didn't lose because he come first in the first part of the contest. Who's to say that between Truss and Sunak the Tory MPs wouldn't have gone for Truss anyway?

    The way things were originally structured was MPs get elected to represent their constituents and they then elect a leader who is Prime Minister.

    That was changed when the membership was given a say in picking the leader of the party but my view of that has always been that members can have a say in opposition but only MPs should have a say when the party is in Government.

    What we saw in 2022 was a leader being elected by a small minority of the public who then enacted polices that that small minority loved but within 2 months almost destroyed the economy...
    It all seems rather tame compared to the oddity of presidential pardons...
    We do have the royal pardon, there's nothing to stop Rishi Sunak letting anyone he likes out of prison, it's just that we don't do it as much as the Americans do.
    How often is the royal pardon used?

    The US's presidential pardon is of a different scale:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_pardoned_or_granted_clemency_by_the_president_of_the_United_States
    As far as I can work out 3 since 2000 (for living prisoners), but as I said, we don't do it as much as the Americans do.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,839

    So I have strong reservations about the Opinium manipulation of "don't knows".

    Focal Data explains: "ASSUMING (sic) 2019 Conservatives still prefer the current government to the Labour Party (THEY DO) [eh???? how do you know that????], this exclusion will, generally speaking, reduce the headline vote share for Rishi Sunak's party."

    https://www.focaldata.com/blog/why-do-pollsters-disagree-on-the-size-of-labours-lead

    What is being written here is pure nonsense. What they need to explain is exactly how they came to determine that they prefer cons to labour and they can't - BECAUSE THEN THEY WOULD CEASE TO BE UNDECIDEDS......

    From a research methodological this makes zero sense (I am a tenured academic marketer at a major London business school btw). On the one hand they are making an assumption and then declaring intrinsic knowledge about voting intentions.... which is exactly what we do not know. Let me say again: the whole point of don't knows is that they don't know and we don't know. Extrapolating from past behaviour which way they, on average, will tend will not work. I certainly do not think this is rigorous.

    I would emphaticallyn not draw substantial conclusions from assumptions about behaviour among don't knows in this set up. In a research context I would probably need additional qualitative data to understand the underlying dimensions which in respondent sensemaking is driving uncertainty and how they assess the relative consequences of apathy versus a wasted vote. But this isn't science: at best it is guessing at worst it is metaphysics dressed up as data.

    Buyer beware.....

    What do you mean by 'tenured' in a UK context?

    I don't know what's behind 'they do' but it could, for example, relate to other measures than headline voting intention - favourability etc. Worth noting that FocalData are Squeezers not re-weighters, from their own account.

    The re-weighting models are indeed based on a number of assumptions and, depending on validity of those, will either look good... or not!
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,118
    Scott_xP said:

    @GuidoFawkes

    Rumours sweeping through the Tory Parliamentary party of a positive poll coming shortly...

    Survation and Redfield definitely coming this pm.
    Back from mouth mangling. Love the dentist service!
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,290

    Scott_xP said:

    @GuidoFawkes

    Rumours sweeping through the Tory Parliamentary party of a positive poll coming shortly...

    The National Service vs National Disgrace framing is working?
    Scott_xP said:

    @GuidoFawkes

    Rumours sweeping through the Tory Parliamentary party of a positive poll coming shortly...

    If the Tories do somehow bring it back to level pegging or - god forbid - winning, I’ll have to rethink my view of modern Britain. Either that or I’m just simply not old enough to yearn for the days of national service and a quadruple locked pension (a pension the likes of us 30 somethings will never have the joy of obtaining)

    Time to top up a little at 44/1 on Tory majority?

    If there's a favourable poll, there'll be a panic in Labour HQ and we could see a dip in that 44 number.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,118
    edited May 28
    Re 'positive' polls. For comparison

    1997 best (for the tories) - a 5 and a 10 deficit with ICM

    2001 'best' - 11 points behind with ICM
  • Options
    Greater Manchester Police is not expected to take any further action in relation to Angela Rayner

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1795468282570416508

    Oh well, sorry Rishi! What an utter waste of money.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,356
    @PickardJE

    BREAKING:

    Greater Manchester Police taking no further action over Angela Rayner house allegations
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 982
    Andy_JS said:
    So compared to their last polls before the election was called:
    Deltapoll: Same
    YouGov: Labour lead reducing by 5%
    WeThink: Labour lead increasing by 2%
    Opinium: Labour lead reducing by 4%
    Techne: Labour lead increasing by 3%
    More in Common: Labour lead increasing by 1%
    Survation: Labour lead increasing by 1%

    But apart from Deltapoll, no fieldwork at all since Saturday and the National Service policy dropped and maybe only a little bit of Deltapoll.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,317
    stodge said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @GuidoFawkes

    Rumours sweeping through the Tory Parliamentary party of a positive poll coming shortly...

    Could be a Savanta or perhaps the R&W. After nearly a week of unremitting coverage for Sunak and the Party, it would be surprising if there wasn't some small uptick, possibly at the expense of Reform.

    We'll see.

    Could be as valid a rumour as the one about Susan Hall winning the London Mayoral election.
    "Positive" could mean 28%.
  • Options
    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 2,196
    edited May 28
    "Matters involving council tax and personal tax do not fall into the jurisdiction of policing. GMP has liaised with Stockport Council and information about our investigation has been shared with them. Details of our investigation have also been shared with His Majesty's Revenue and Customs (HMRC)."

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1795468798994059680/photo/1

    HOW MUCH MONEY did this cost? PB worked this out months ago!
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,286
    edited May 28

    Re 'positive' polls. For comparison

    1997 best (for the tories) - a 5 and a 10 deficit with ICM

    2001 'best' - 11 points behind with ICM

    Yet the actual Tory deficit in 2001 was just 9 points.
  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,423

    Greater Manchester Police is not expected to take any further action in relation to Angela Rayner

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1795468282570416508

    Oh well, sorry Rishi! What an utter waste of money.

    Not sure the police are the only antagonists here. HMRC?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,210

    "Matters involving council tax and personal tax do not fall into the jurisdiction of policing. GMP has liaised with Stockport Council and information about our investigation has been shared with them. Details of our investigation have also been shared with His Majesty's Revenue and Customs (HMRC)."

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1795468798994059680/photo/1

    HOW MUCH MONEY did this cost? PB worked this out months ago!

    Probably the same as all other politically motivated investigations. In any case, given that they say it falls outside their jurisdiction it is unlikely they spent much time on it.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,286
    edited May 28
    Scott_xP said:

    @GuidoFawkes

    Rumours sweeping through the Tory Parliamentary party of a positive poll coming shortly...

    The only positive thing I can think of is 30%. Can't see the lead being reduced to 10% or less.
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,159
    edited May 28
    DM_Andy said:

    DM_Andy said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    DM_Andy said:



    eek said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Doctor Who and Sherlock writer Steven Moffat: "our current government basically found somebody else's mandate down the back of a sofa and that's not how it's supposed to work."


    Dr Who is a load of shite, and Brown didn't win a general election. Apart from that, well done.
    He said Boris won an election which he did.
    He also says "we have a PM who not only didn't win an election".
    Same as Brown. And Dr Who is a load of shite.
    It's a misunderstanding of our electoral system - Rishi has won multiple elections in Richmondshire and there is no such thing as an election for PM, they are appointed based on the party whose candidates won most (local seats).

    Even the fact he didn't win the party vote makes little sense - Rishi won the vote of the Tory MPs only to lose it to in the membership vote...
    That argument sounds bizarre to me. The rules of the Tory Leadership is that the MPs pick the top two and then the members pick between them, you can't just ignore the rules and say that Sunak didn't lose because he come first in the first part of the contest. Who's to say that between Truss and Sunak the Tory MPs wouldn't have gone for Truss anyway?

    The way things were originally structured was MPs get elected to represent their constituents and they then elect a leader who is Prime Minister.

    That was changed when the membership was given a say in picking the leader of the party but my view of that has always been that members can have a say in opposition but only MPs should have a say when the party is in Government.

    What we saw in 2022 was a leader being elected by a small minority of the public who then enacted polices that that small minority loved but within 2 months almost destroyed the economy...
    It all seems rather tame compared to the oddity of presidential pardons...
    We do have the royal pardon, there's nothing to stop Rishi Sunak letting anyone he likes out of prison, it's just that we don't do it as much as the Americans do.
    How often is the royal pardon used?

    The US's presidential pardon is of a different scale:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_pardoned_or_granted_clemency_by_the_president_of_the_United_States
    As far as I can work out 3 since 2000 (for living prisoners), but as I said, we don't do it as much as the Americans do.
    I'm not sure of the exact numbers, but there'll have been thousands as a result of the Policing and Crime Act 2017 and Historic Sexual Offences Act 2019...
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,951
    edited May 28

    Greater Manchester Police is not expected to take any further action in relation to Angela Rayner

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1795468282570416508

    Oh well, sorry Rishi! What an utter waste of money.

    It was pretty obvious, especially after this happened:

    https://news.sky.com/story/tory-mp-who-complained-about-labours-angela-rayner-to-police-refuses-to-say-what-he-thinks-shes-done-wrong-13117144

  • Options
    CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 383
    Selebian said:

    So I have strong reservations about the Opinium manipulation of "don't knows".

    Focal Data explains: "ASSUMING (sic) 2019 Conservatives still prefer the current government to the Labour Party (THEY DO) [eh???? how do you know that????], this exclusion will, generally speaking, reduce the headline vote share for Rishi Sunak's party."

    https://www.focaldata.com/blog/why-do-pollsters-disagree-on-the-size-of-labours-lead

    What is being written here is pure nonsense. What they need to explain is exactly how they came to determine that they prefer cons to labour and they can't - BECAUSE THEN THEY WOULD CEASE TO BE UNDECIDEDS......

    From a research methodological this makes zero sense (I am a tenured academic marketer at a major London business school btw). On the one hand they are making an assumption and then declaring intrinsic knowledge about voting intentions.... which is exactly what we do not know. Let me say again: the whole point of don't knows is that they don't know and we don't know. Extrapolating from past behaviour which way they, on average, will tend will not work. I certainly do not think this is rigorous.

    I would emphaticallyn not draw substantial conclusions from assumptions about behaviour among don't knows in this set up. In a research context I would probably need additional qualitative data to understand the underlying dimensions which in respondent sensemaking is driving uncertainty and how they assess the relative consequences of apathy versus a wasted vote. But this isn't science: at best it is guessing at worst it is metaphysics dressed up as data.

    Buyer beware.....

    What do you mean by 'tenured' in a UK context?

    I don't know what's behind 'they do' but it could, for example, relate to other measures than headline voting intention - favourability etc. Worth noting that FocalData are Squeezers not re-weighters, from their own account.

    The re-weighting models are indeed based on a number of assumptions and, depending on validity of those, will either look good... or not!
    I simply mean I am not on a fixed term, post doc contract but inhabit the holy grain in academia of: permanent employment hahahahaha
  • Options
    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,014
    stodge said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @GuidoFawkes

    Rumours sweeping through the Tory Parliamentary party of a positive poll coming shortly...

    Could be a Savanta or perhaps the R&W. After nearly a week of unremitting coverage for Sunak and the Party, it would be surprising if there wasn't some small uptick, possibly at the expense of Reform.

    We'll see.

    Could be as valid a rumour as the one about Susan Hall winning the London Mayoral election.
    The rumour about the rumour is that it is about the Savanta poll, not the R&W.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,408
    Scott_xP said:

    @PickardJE

    BREAKING:

    Greater Manchester Police taking no further action over Angela Rayner house allegations

    Great news . I really like Angela Rayner .
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,456
    edited May 28
    Still digging...

    "Human Scum"

    (Aiui Trump refused a test, not that it was -ve.)


  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,124

    So I have strong reservations about the Opinium manipulation of "don't knows".

    Focal Data explains: "ASSUMING (sic) 2019 Conservatives still prefer the current government to the Labour Party (THEY DO) [eh???? how do you know that????], this exclusion will, generally speaking, reduce the headline vote share for Rishi Sunak's party."

    https://www.focaldata.com/blog/why-do-pollsters-disagree-on-the-size-of-labours-lead

    What is being written here is pure nonsense. What they need to explain is exactly how they came to determine that they prefer cons to labour and they can't - BECAUSE THEN THEY WOULD CEASE TO BE UNDECIDEDS......

    From a research methodological this makes zero sense (I am a tenured academic marketer at a major London business school btw). On the one hand they are making an assumption and then declaring intrinsic knowledge about voting intentions.... which is exactly what we do not know. Let me say again: the whole point of don't knows is that they don't know and we don't know. Extrapolating from past behaviour which way they, on average, will tend will not work. I certainly do not think this is rigorous.

    I would emphaticallyn not draw substantial conclusions from assumptions about behaviour among don't knows in this set up. In a research context I would probably need additional qualitative data to understand the underlying dimensions which in respondent sensemaking is driving uncertainty and how they assess the relative consequences of apathy versus a wasted vote. But this isn't science: at best it is guessing at worst it is metaphysics dressed up as data.

    Buyer beware.....

    You make a very good point, and I have no academic credentials at all. But...According to YouGov recent data there are a huge number of DKs among the 2019 Tory voter group - 19% of them or nearly 2 million. This is loads larger than DKs among 2019 Labour voters; and while there is a largeish group of 2019 LD voters who are DK, that is likely to be a DK between Labour and LD.

    It isn't unrealistic to think that the ex Tory DKs may return in numbers to the Tories on the rational basis that those sick at heart at the party (like me) have opted for LD/Lab or won't vote; the issue is how many but it is reasonable to think lots of them are still considering it. Rishi thinks so, which is why a new piece of populist nonsense is promoted daily. Hanging for sheep stealing next.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,354
    DM_Andy said:

    DM_Andy said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    DM_Andy said:



    eek said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Doctor Who and Sherlock writer Steven Moffat: "our current government basically found somebody else's mandate down the back of a sofa and that's not how it's supposed to work."


    Dr Who is a load of shite, and Brown didn't win a general election. Apart from that, well done.
    He said Boris won an election which he did.
    He also says "we have a PM who not only didn't win an election".
    Same as Brown. And Dr Who is a load of shite.
    It's a misunderstanding of our electoral system - Rishi has won multiple elections in Richmondshire and there is no such thing as an election for PM, they are appointed based on the party whose candidates won most (local seats).

    Even the fact he didn't win the party vote makes little sense - Rishi won the vote of the Tory MPs only to lose it to in the membership vote...
    That argument sounds bizarre to me. The rules of the Tory Leadership is that the MPs pick the top two and then the members pick between them, you can't just ignore the rules and say that Sunak didn't lose because he come first in the first part of the contest. Who's to say that between Truss and Sunak the Tory MPs wouldn't have gone for Truss anyway?

    The way things were originally structured was MPs get elected to represent their constituents and they then elect a leader who is Prime Minister.

    That was changed when the membership was given a say in picking the leader of the party but my view of that has always been that members can have a say in opposition but only MPs should have a say when the party is in Government.

    What we saw in 2022 was a leader being elected by a small minority of the public who then enacted polices that that small minority loved but within 2 months almost destroyed the economy...
    It all seems rather tame compared to the oddity of presidential pardons...
    We do have the royal pardon, there's nothing to stop Rishi Sunak letting anyone he likes out of prison, it's just that we don't do it as much as the Americans do.
    How often is the royal pardon used?

    The US's presidential pardon is of a different scale:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_pardoned_or_granted_clemency_by_the_president_of_the_United_States
    As far as I can work out 3 since 2000 (for living prisoners), but as I said, we don't do it as much as the Americans do.
    I didn't even know we still had pardon powers. The Presidential and Governor pardons seems absurdly high.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,118
    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @GuidoFawkes

    Rumours sweeping through the Tory Parliamentary party of a positive poll coming shortly...

    The only positive thing I can think of is 30%. Can't see the lead being reduced to 10% or less.
    Labour under 40 for a kind of inverse positive?
  • Options
    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,072
    Scott_xP said:

    @GuidoFawkes

    Rumours sweeping through the Tory Parliamentary party of a positive poll coming shortly...

    "Positive" as in, despite everything, the Tory share is still above 0%?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,073
    MattW said:


    Still digging...

    "Human Scum"

    Next one tomorrow...

    He's taking lessons from Angela Rayner.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,118

    stodge said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @GuidoFawkes

    Rumours sweeping through the Tory Parliamentary party of a positive poll coming shortly...

    Could be a Savanta or perhaps the R&W. After nearly a week of unremitting coverage for Sunak and the Party, it would be surprising if there wasn't some small uptick, possibly at the expense of Reform.

    We'll see.

    Could be as valid a rumour as the one about Susan Hall winning the London Mayoral election.
    The rumour about the rumour is that it is about the Savanta poll, not the R&W.
    Survation not savanta
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,354
    edited May 28
    Closing argument for Trump's defense seems to be going reasonably well, minimising his involvement in things and presenting it all as much ado about nothing, but then if you cannot pull together a decent closing argument in a case you might as well turn in your bar licence.
  • Options
    CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 383
    algarkirk said:

    So I have strong reservations about the Opinium manipulation of "don't knows".

    Focal Data explains: "ASSUMING (sic) 2019 Conservatives still prefer the current government to the Labour Party (THEY DO) [eh???? how do you know that????], this exclusion will, generally speaking, reduce the headline vote share for Rishi Sunak's party."

    https://www.focaldata.com/blog/why-do-pollsters-disagree-on-the-size-of-labours-lead

    What is being written here is pure nonsense. What they need to explain is exactly how they came to determine that they prefer cons to labour and they can't - BECAUSE THEN THEY WOULD CEASE TO BE UNDECIDEDS......

    From a research methodological this makes zero sense (I am a tenured academic marketer at a major London business school btw). On the one hand they are making an assumption and then declaring intrinsic knowledge about voting intentions.... which is exactly what we do not know. Let me say again: the whole point of don't knows is that they don't know and we don't know. Extrapolating from past behaviour which way they, on average, will tend will not work. I certainly do not think this is rigorous.

    I would emphaticallyn not draw substantial conclusions from assumptions about behaviour among don't knows in this set up. In a research context I would probably need additional qualitative data to understand the underlying dimensions which in respondent sensemaking is driving uncertainty and how they assess the relative consequences of apathy versus a wasted vote. But this isn't science: at best it is guessing at worst it is metaphysics dressed up as data.

    Buyer beware.....

    You make a very good point, and I have no academic credentials at all. But...According to YouGov recent data there are a huge number of DKs among the 2019 Tory voter group - 19% of them or nearly 2 million. This is loads larger than DKs among 2019 Labour voters; and while there is a largeish group of 2019 LD voters who are DK, that is likely to be a DK between Labour and LD.

    It isn't unrealistic to think that the ex Tory DKs may return in numbers to the Tories on the rational basis that those sick at heart at the party (like me) have opted for LD/Lab or won't vote; the issue is how many but it is reasonable to think lots of them are still considering it. Rishi thinks so, which is why a new piece of populist nonsense is promoted daily. Hanging for sheep stealing next.
    Well, you might look at other approaches to questionning respondents who might not be certain about party brand, but lean towards person brand. This kind of sampling provides a different repetoir of descision making references. These findings suggest that they may have made up their minds up in a different way, hence voting for a leader by proxy of their local representative, rather than a party platform, which is a more abstract construct.:

    "The survey of 1,500 adults showed that if you ask voters who they would rather go to the pub with, lend money to, get them to help put up a shelf, make them laugh, join their quiz team or cry on their shoulder – then Mr Starmer wins hands down every time.

    The widest gap is over which one you would ask to do a DIY task, with Mr Starmer ahead by 39 per cent to 17 per cent, and the closest on who you would want on a pub quiz team, with the Labour leader ahead 38 per cent to 28 per cent."

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/starmer-sunak-poll-general-election-b2552092.html
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    MattW said:

    Still digging...

    "Human Scum"

    (Aiui Trump refused a test, not that it was -ve.)

    Are you suggesting Donald Trump, a man who won the 2020 Presidential election, owns the most expensive house in the history of the world, who absolutely did not confuse Covid drugs with sheep worming tablets and who never incited a riot to kill his own deputy, may be not being entirely truthful?

    For shame, sir!
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 19,318
    eek said:

    Eabhal said:

    On HS2 - I was having an interesting/drunken chat with an operations manager a few days ago. Not very senior (my kind of grade) but exactly the sort of person who gets exposed to both the top and bottom of the business.

    This is obvious, but worth reiterating. He pointed out that the workers, equipment and raw resources for something like HS2 are not sat around in a warehouse - it takes years (decades) for private developer to get the training completed, gear imported and the R&D finished.

    Thus, companies must hedge against the probability of cancellation. In HS2's case, this was high, and the costs of that uncertainty were passed onto the taxpayer. Those costs turned out to be entirely proportionate - it was cancelled. And it was cancelled.... because the costs were so high.

    He reckons the real cost of HS2's cancellation has not yet been felt. It will be when someone - Labour or otherwise - attempts to fund another big infrastructure project and is faced with a deeply sceptical industrial base. NIMBYism is a cost, yes, but not a particularly big one compared with all the fannying about.

    The simplest way to reduce the cost of infrastructure would be to apply the same consultation and democratic accountability to cancellations as to the approval of the thing in the first place.

    Actially the simplest way of fixing things is to generate a proper framework with projects lasting well into the future so that the investment risk in training didn't exist. You kick off HS2, and start the debate as to whether HS3 is Bristol to Birmingham or one of Manchester / Leeds to Glasgow / Edinburgh and then schedule HS4 and 5...

    These are the sort of projects that can easily last someone's working live so just kick them off and ensure the money exists...
    Completely agreed.

    We saw this done well in the 50s to the 80s with motorways with there always being something constructed and the consummate economic growth and productivity growth as a result.

    Unfortunately since the 90s onwards there's been a pathetic lack of investment and its just been trying to cram more people into the infrastructure we already had.

    We should be building new railways and new motorways, not expanding existing lines but entirely new lines, and it shouldn't be just one motorway/railway it should be a series of them across the country.

    Improve the whole countries connections, by road and rail. Our productivity would dramatically improve and as you say if it is consistently done and not a white elephant then it costs a fraction of the amount.

    Win/win.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,665
    nico679 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @PickardJE

    BREAKING:

    Greater Manchester Police taking no further action over Angela Rayner house allegations

    Great news . I really like Angela Rayner .
    Why?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,199
    ydoethur said:

    Which pollsters were most accurate for the Mayorals and locals?

    Bugger misread it, that joke doesn't work.
    And no love for my Elasmobranch-vaulting pun on the last thread.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,665
    DM_Andy said:

    DM_Andy said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    DM_Andy said:



    eek said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Doctor Who and Sherlock writer Steven Moffat: "our current government basically found somebody else's mandate down the back of a sofa and that's not how it's supposed to work."


    Dr Who is a load of shite, and Brown didn't win a general election. Apart from that, well done.
    He said Boris won an election which he did.
    He also says "we have a PM who not only didn't win an election".
    Same as Brown. And Dr Who is a load of shite.
    It's a misunderstanding of our electoral system - Rishi has won multiple elections in Richmondshire and there is no such thing as an election for PM, they are appointed based on the party whose candidates won most (local seats).

    Even the fact he didn't win the party vote makes little sense - Rishi won the vote of the Tory MPs only to lose it to in the membership vote...
    That argument sounds bizarre to me. The rules of the Tory Leadership is that the MPs pick the top two and then the members pick between them, you can't just ignore the rules and say that Sunak didn't lose because he come first in the first part of the contest. Who's to say that between Truss and Sunak the Tory MPs wouldn't have gone for Truss anyway?

    The way things were originally structured was MPs get elected to represent their constituents and they then elect a leader who is Prime Minister.

    That was changed when the membership was given a say in picking the leader of the party but my view of that has always been that members can have a say in opposition but only MPs should have a say when the party is in Government.

    What we saw in 2022 was a leader being elected by a small minority of the public who then enacted polices that that small minority loved but within 2 months almost destroyed the economy...
    It all seems rather tame compared to the oddity of presidential pardons...
    We do have the royal pardon, there's nothing to stop Rishi Sunak letting anyone he likes out of prison, it's just that we don't do it as much as the Americans do.
    How often is the royal pardon used?

    The US's presidential pardon is of a different scale:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_pardoned_or_granted_clemency_by_the_president_of_the_United_States
    As far as I can work out 3 since 2000 (for living prisoners), but as I said, we don't do it as much as the Americans do.
    Indeed. And do you *agree* with those three? Were they valid or invalid?

    Royal pardons seem to be a powerful power that is rarely used, and then not for the sake of the power.

    Unlike presidential pardons.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332

    MattW said:


    Still digging...

    "Human Scum"

    Next one tomorrow...

    He's taking lessons from Angela Rayner.
    Ridiculous.

    She at least knows how to turn her caps lock off.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,203
    Dear Prime Minister. My cup of tea was not ready until 16:10. I hope I will not receive a month in prison as a result of my tardiness.

    I ended up going with Nettle & Peppermint. With milk.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,408
    MJW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @GuidoFawkes

    Rumours sweeping through the Tory Parliamentary party of a positive poll coming shortly...

    The National Service vs National Disgrace framing is working?
    Scott_xP said:

    @GuidoFawkes

    Rumours sweeping through the Tory Parliamentary party of a positive poll coming shortly...

    If the Tories do somehow bring it back to level pegging or - god forbid - winning, I’ll have to rethink my view of modern Britain. Either that or I’m just simply not old enough to yearn for the days of national service and a quadruple locked pension (a pension the likes of us 30 somethings will never have the joy of obtaining)

    I'd make moves to try and leave the country. Nothing for anyone under 40 in a Britain that's enslaved by its selfish old.
    The vast majority of over 65s decided that they’d also screw you by delivering a leave vote so even if you wanted to escape your options would be limited .
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Which pollsters were most accurate for the Mayorals and locals?

    Bugger misread it, that joke doesn't work.
    And no love for my Elasmobranch-vaulting pun on the last thread.
    You got two likes.

    I used to dream of getting two likes.
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,308

    Selebian said:

    @Leon forgetting that the twins in his own book are both female and identical twins

    https://x.com/thomasknox/status/1795463263490093404

    The AI one's a bit naff overall, isn't it? Although that may be due to non-AI text placement by the mysterious STK.
    It's naff. But it amuses me that he thinks a book where the central conceit is of identical twins being confused is best illustrated with people who appear non-identical.

    Indeed, the cover of the book I got shows it much better:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ice_Twins#/media/File:The_Ice_Twins.jpg

    Two identical figures, one disappearing. It works well for the story.

    (I don't think there's particular spoilers in what I've written, in case anyone wants to read the book.)
    I cannot get over the typographical crimes in the home-made version. The choice of font! The wonky placement! The kerning, for the love of God, the kerning!

    This is the sort of thing that makes designers eyes bleed.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,836
    I hate to break it to the cozy consensus here but the Tories are going to win this election. There's a poll coming out later this afternoon that shows that the gap is narrowing significantly.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,201
    Excellent information.

    Thanks for posting.

    Today's We Think has Lab lead up 2 at 25 SKS landslide
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,124

    nico679 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @PickardJE

    BREAKING:

    Greater Manchester Police taking no further action over Angela Rayner house allegations

    Great news . I really like Angela Rayner .
    Why?
    There is something to admire about a woman who has a child very young, doesn't take easy options, doesn't have it all made for her by wealth and background, and achieves significant things in public life.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,354
    DougSeal said:

    I hate to break it to the cozy consensus here but the Tories are going to win this election. There's a poll coming out later this afternoon that shows that the gap is narrowing significantly.

    If Keir dropped the ball at this stage at least Corbyn would get revenge on all of those who mock his fans for pretending he won the 2017 election.
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,836

    Excellent information.

    Thanks for posting.

    Today's We Think has Lab lead up 2 at 25 SKS landslide

    Guido's confirmed a positive poll for the Tories
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,408

    nico679 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @PickardJE

    BREAKING:

    Greater Manchester Police taking no further action over Angela Rayner house allegations

    Great news . I really like Angela Rayner .
    Why?
    Her back story and I like that she gives the Tories both barrels. She would have been a huge loss to Labour if the police had charged her .


  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,201

    Excellent information.

    Thanks for posting.

    Today's We Think has Lab lead up 2 at 25 SKS landslide

    Was released at the end of last week, apparently.

    I missed it
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    DougSeal said:

    Excellent information.

    Thanks for posting.

    Today's We Think has Lab lead up 2 at 25 SKS landslide

    Guido's confirmed a positive poll for the Tories
    It shows Massive Johnson would be doing even worse?
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,124
    DougSeal said:

    I hate to break it to the cozy consensus here but the Tories are going to win this election. There's a poll coming out later this afternoon that shows that the gap is narrowing significantly.

    The gap will narrow and the Tories won't win. To win they need to lose fewer than about 44 seats (321 seats might be a win once SF are accounted for). This will not occur.
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    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,159

    stodge said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @GuidoFawkes

    Rumours sweeping through the Tory Parliamentary party of a positive poll coming shortly...

    Could be a Savanta or perhaps the R&W. After nearly a week of unremitting coverage for Sunak and the Party, it would be surprising if there wasn't some small uptick, possibly at the expense of Reform.

    We'll see.

    Could be as valid a rumour as the one about Susan Hall winning the London Mayoral election.
    The rumour about the rumour is that it is about the Savanta poll, not the R&W.
    Why would CCHQ get to see either ahead of the rest of us? It could be an internal poll that they're getting excited about...

    I'd be expecting a significant (ie. outside of MoE) Refuk-Con swing after the weekend's flurry of announcements, but it might be too early for the effect to have fed through properly yet. We could be in for a few days of incrementally positive polling numbers for the Tories...
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    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 982
    edited May 28
    algarkirk said:

    So I have strong reservations about the Opinium manipulation of "don't knows".

    Focal Data explains: "ASSUMING (sic) 2019 Conservatives still prefer the current government to the Labour Party (THEY DO) [eh???? how do you know that????], this exclusion will, generally speaking, reduce the headline vote share for Rishi Sunak's party."

    https://www.focaldata.com/blog/why-do-pollsters-disagree-on-the-size-of-labours-lead

    What is being written here is pure nonsense. What they need to explain is exactly how they came to determine that they prefer cons to labour and they can't - BECAUSE THEN THEY WOULD CEASE TO BE UNDECIDEDS......

    From a research methodological this makes zero sense (I am a tenured academic marketer at a major London business school btw). On the one hand they are making an assumption and then declaring intrinsic knowledge about voting intentions.... which is exactly what we do not know. Let me say again: the whole point of don't knows is that they don't know and we don't know. Extrapolating from past behaviour which way they, on average, will tend will not work. I certainly do not think this is rigorous.

    I would emphaticallyn not draw substantial conclusions from assumptions about behaviour among don't knows in this set up. In a research context I would probably need additional qualitative data to understand the underlying dimensions which in respondent sensemaking is driving uncertainty and how they assess the relative consequences of apathy versus a wasted vote. But this isn't science: at best it is guessing at worst it is metaphysics dressed up as data.

    Buyer beware.....

    You make a very good point, and I have no academic credentials at all. But...According to YouGov recent data there are a huge number of DKs among the 2019 Tory voter group - 19% of them or nearly 2 million. This is loads larger than DKs among 2019 Labour voters; and while there is a largeish group of 2019 LD voters who are DK, that is likely to be a DK between Labour and LD.

    It isn't unrealistic to think that the ex Tory DKs may return in numbers to the Tories on the rational basis that those sick at heart at the party (like me) have opted for LD/Lab or won't vote; the issue is how many but it is reasonable to think lots of them are still considering it. Rishi thinks so, which is why a new piece of populist nonsense is promoted daily. Hanging for sheep stealing next.
    As I said in the last thread, it's an opportunity for the Tories. There's a group of people for whom Starmer hasn't sealed the deal and they are open to voting for the Tories as they have done so in the past. But that's not an inevitability that they will. The 2019 polls showed more GE17 Labour voters undecided than GE17 Conservative voters but there was no swingback to Labour.

    It's odd but I'm hearing more complacency from the blue team supporters than the red right now. It's a kind of wishful thinking that the Tories can take half the current Reform vote and that swingback is a physical law like gravity - both might happen but the Tories really have to earn those supporters back rather than wait for it to happen. At least National Service and Triple Lock Plus is doing something, even if it means voters towards the centre jumping ship.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,118
    I think we're about to test 'no such thing as bad publicity' to the max
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,836
    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    Excellent information.

    Thanks for posting.

    Today's We Think has Lab lead up 2 at 25 SKS landslide

    Guido's confirmed a positive poll for the Tories
    It shows Massive Johnson would be doing even worse?
    Positive from the Tories' perspective then. Small blue lead?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    Excellent information.

    Thanks for posting.

    Today's We Think has Lab lead up 2 at 25 SKS landslide

    Guido's confirmed a positive poll for the Tories
    It shows Massive Johnson would be doing even worse?
    Positive from the Tories' perspective then. Small blue lead?
    Over whom?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,317
    Relax. "Positive" still means a Labour lead well into double figures.
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,836
    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    Excellent information.

    Thanks for posting.

    Today's We Think has Lab lead up 2 at 25 SKS landslide

    Guido's confirmed a positive poll for the Tories
    It shows Massive Johnson would be doing even worse?
    Positive from the Tories' perspective then. Small blue lead?
    Over whom?
    Everyone else? Like, leading the polls? Certainly the rumour that Guido’s presenting
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    Excellent information.

    Thanks for posting.

    Today's We Think has Lab lead up 2 at 25 SKS landslide

    Guido's confirmed a positive poll for the Tories
    It shows Massive Johnson would be doing even worse?
    Positive from the Tories' perspective then. Small blue lead?
    Over whom?
    Everyone else? Like, leading the polls? Certainly the rumour that Guido’s presenting
    I do not expect Labour to win the stonking majority everyone else seems to be expecting.

    Still less do I expect the Tories to lose less than a quarter of their 2019 voters and 100 seats.
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,133
    . . . meanwhile back at the ranch . . .

    AP (via Seattle Times) - Ohio lawmakers holding special session to ensure President Biden is on 2024 ballot

    COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — Ohio lawmakers gathered Tuesday for a rare special session called by Republican Gov. Mike DeWine to pass legislation ensuring President Joe Biden appears on the state’s fall ballot.

    Legislators have done this before for Republicans as well as Democrats, but the ability of voters to speak directly through the ballot initiative process on questions such as abortion has made reaching a solution more difficult in both chambers, where the GOP has lopsided majorities.

    Negotiations between House and Senate on a solution to Biden’s ballot conundrum began Friday. State Rep. Bill Seitz told reporters during a conference call that he and state Sen. Rob McColley, both Republicans, are leading the talks, with no resolution announced as of Tuesday.

    The legislation needs only to move Ohio’s Aug. 7 ballot deadline so that it falls after the Democratic National Convention where Biden will be formally nominated, which is scheduled for Aug. 19-22, in Chicago. The Republican convention, in Milwaukee, is July 15-18, so it doesn’t run afoul of Ohio’s rules this year.

    Since Ohio changed its certification deadline from 60 to 90 days ahead of its general election, state lawmakers have had to adjust the requirement twice, in 2012 and 2020, to accommodate candidates of both leading parties. Each change was only temporary.

    But the Senate sent its version of the ballot fix to the House after attaching a prohibition on foreign nationals donating to Ohio ballot campaigns, stopping it in its tracks.

    DeWine urged legislators to pass the combination measure during the special session, but Democrats have balked, saying the proposal goes beyond the foreign nationals ban to add requirements intended to make it more difficult to mount future ballot campaigns in the state.

    That’s after Ohio voters overwhelmingly approved three ballot measures last year, including a constitutional amendment protecting access to abortions that Republicans opposed and an initiated statute legalizing adult-use marijuana.

    A “clean” House bill containing only the adjustment to Ohio’s ballot deadline may also be considered.

    Due to differing interpretations of the proclamation DeWine issued Thursday, the Ohio Senate scheduled a single day of activity for Tuesday, while the Ohio House plans to begin with two days of committee hearings before taking its vote Thursday.

    A Senate spokesman has said it’s possible the upper chamber can convene Tuesday and then recess to wait for the House.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    edited May 28
    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    Excellent information.

    Thanks for posting.

    Today's We Think has Lab lead up 2 at 25 SKS landslide

    Guido's confirmed a positive poll for the Tories
    It shows Massive Johnson would be doing even worse?
    Positive from the Tories' perspective then. Small blue lead?
    Over whom?
    Everyone else? Like, leading the polls? Certainly the rumour that Guido’s presenting
    In the second week of the 1983 election campaign, a poll came out showing a somewhat improved Labour position.

    It turned out to be, what's the word? Oh yes - utter bullshit.
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    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 982

    DM_Andy said:

    DM_Andy said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    DM_Andy said:



    eek said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Doctor Who and Sherlock writer Steven Moffat: "our current government basically found somebody else's mandate down the back of a sofa and that's not how it's supposed to work."


    Dr Who is a load of shite, and Brown didn't win a general election. Apart from that, well done.
    He said Boris won an election which he did.
    He also says "we have a PM who not only didn't win an election".
    Same as Brown. And Dr Who is a load of shite.
    It's a misunderstanding of our electoral system - Rishi has won multiple elections in Richmondshire and there is no such thing as an election for PM, they are appointed based on the party whose candidates won most (local seats).

    Even the fact he didn't win the party vote makes little sense - Rishi won the vote of the Tory MPs only to lose it to in the membership vote...
    That argument sounds bizarre to me. The rules of the Tory Leadership is that the MPs pick the top two and then the members pick between them, you can't just ignore the rules and say that Sunak didn't lose because he come first in the first part of the contest. Who's to say that between Truss and Sunak the Tory MPs wouldn't have gone for Truss anyway?

    The way things were originally structured was MPs get elected to represent their constituents and they then elect a leader who is Prime Minister.

    That was changed when the membership was given a say in picking the leader of the party but my view of that has always been that members can have a say in opposition but only MPs should have a say when the party is in Government.

    What we saw in 2022 was a leader being elected by a small minority of the public who then enacted polices that that small minority loved but within 2 months almost destroyed the economy...
    It all seems rather tame compared to the oddity of presidential pardons...
    We do have the royal pardon, there's nothing to stop Rishi Sunak letting anyone he likes out of prison, it's just that we don't do it as much as the Americans do.
    How often is the royal pardon used?

    The US's presidential pardon is of a different scale:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_pardoned_or_granted_clemency_by_the_president_of_the_United_States
    As far as I can work out 3 since 2000 (for living prisoners), but as I said, we don't do it as much as the Americans do.
    Indeed. And do you *agree* with those three? Were they valid or invalid?

    Royal pardons seem to be a powerful power that is rarely used, and then not for the sake of the power.

    Unlike presidential pardons.
    There was Steve Gallant, the murderer on day release who defended people from the London Bridge attacker in 2019 and I think that most people would agree that he deserved early release. However I imagine his victim's family wouldn't feel like Gallant's heroic actions undid the harm he caused to them. It's a difficult decision to make and I'm glad that I wouldn't ever have to make it.
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    CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 383
    The kubler-Ross 5 stages of mourning: denial, anger, negotiation, depression, acceptance. 4 of these are forms of bias.

    The numbers are the numbers.... let's wait and see what they say and wait with predictions till we have something concrete. I am not saying there won't be a narrowing. But as of right now the poll of polls is widening. Let's see what happens.... but as a punter it is better not to let your hopes and wishes and biases govern your decision making. Are you projecting, or can you look into reality with truely dispassionate eyes?

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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,118
    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    Excellent information.

    Thanks for posting.

    Today's We Think has Lab lead up 2 at 25 SKS landslide

    Guido's confirmed a positive poll for the Tories
    It shows Massive Johnson would be doing even worse?
    Positive from the Tories' perspective then. Small blue lead?
    Over whom?
    Everyone else? Like, leading the polls? Certainly the rumour that Guido’s presenting
    In the second week of the 1983 election campaign, a poll came out showing a somewhat improved Labour position.

    It turned out to be, what's the word? Oh yes - utter bullshit.
    There was also the 5 point deficit ICM in 97.
    But it makes for good 🍿 🍿 🍿
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,884
    What does a positive poll look like at this stage?

    Anything below a 15 point deficit almost feels “good” for the Tories now. Still leads to a wretched result, but if they can hold onto 160-200 seats all things considered then they have a base to rebuild from.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,665
    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @PickardJE

    BREAKING:

    Greater Manchester Police taking no further action over Angela Rayner house allegations

    Great news . I really like Angela Rayner .
    Why?
    Her back story and I like that she gives the Tories both barrels. She would have been a huge loss to Labour if the police had charged her .
    So, essentially nothing of value? Both nasty and good people can have compelling back stories, and giving her enemies both barrels is not an indication of wise or good thinking.
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,670

    Which pollsters were most accurate for the Mayorals and locals?

    There was less polling, so it’s hard to tell. YouGov did poorly on the London mayoral race, while the others were all similar (Savanta, R&W, Survation).
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,118

    What does a positive poll look like at this stage?

    Anything below a 15 point deficit almost feels “good” for the Tories now. Still leads to a wretched result, but if they can hold onto 160-200 seats all things considered then they have a base to rebuild from.

    A big change in gap closing also gives the impression of cut through and 'momentum'
This discussion has been closed.