Bookmark this post and these tweets – politicalbetting.com
Bookmark this post and these tweets – politicalbetting.com
New post for @focaldataHQ covering the effects of pollster approach to undecided voters, and outlining what our in-house approach will be for this election campaign.https://t.co/hEjtikXkKp
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Edit to add -the important thing to remember is that in most election swingback occurs so the polling figures from Yellow / Green pollsters will be more accurate, however in 1997 that wasn't the case and the Red posters were more accurate.
Take your pick but one side (swingback) gives the Tories 100-200 seats and the other anything from 20-140...
Hmmm....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c7223kwzp4no
Even if you dethreaded me by one. Grr.
FPT: OK.
I might allow Honours, but no Dissolute Lords.
If it is a reward, an MBE or other gong fits better.
Appointments to the Lords should be more about what they can contribute in the future, albeit that may be informed by the past.
So far, it's striking how little that dog has barked. These graphs are up to late March 2024, but not a lot has happened since then ...
(I hope that's using my ration well.)
https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1773858624411975958
Given his target demographic, this was probably more important than the football cones...
https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1795460657753526560
Re BBC coverage of election night:
BBC radio coverage for me this year, with a glance or two at how Times Radio/LBC is getting on too (if still awake). Age creeping on, and pictures better, and no cowboys illustrating swing by doing something from a western or drunks on the Thames. can we hope that Jim Naughtie will be in the mix?
"What could go wrong for Labour?
Shadow cabinet ministers believe the biggest risk is that voters regard the election as a foregone conclusion.
By George Eaton"
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/election-2024/2024/05/what-could-go-wrong-for-labour
That was changed when the membership was given a say in picking the leader of the party but my view of that has always been that members can have a say in opposition but only MPs should have a say when the party is in Government.
What we saw in 2022 was a leader being elected by a small minority of the public who then enacted polices that that small minority loved but within 2 months almost destroyed the economy...
However the Tory party are also starting from a far worse position, have a right wing protest party running against them that didn't exist (in any form) in 1997 (Reform) so it's very likely that the Tory party will do seriously badly here which is why I took Bet365's offer of 25/1 for less than 50 Tory seats as a great bet.
Now we have a long time to go and things may change but I suspect I won't regret the money I staked there....
Getting out the vote
Ex Tory DKs returning to the Tories
Ex Tory currently Reform switching to the Tories
(The above 2 groups total about 5 million voters. That is election shifting numbers)
Black Swans
Failure of tactical voting on the centre left
Someone drops the Ming vase in an important way
Rumours sweeping through the Tory Parliamentary party of a positive poll coming shortly...
https://x.com/thomasknox/status/1795463263490093404
The answer's potentially eggsplosive.
We'll see.
Could be as valid a rumour as the one about Susan Hall winning the London Mayoral election.
Indeed, the cover of the book I got shows it much better:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ice_Twins#/media/File:The_Ice_Twins.jpg
Two identical figures, one disappearing. It works well for the story.
(I don't think there's particular spoilers in what I've written, in case anyone wants to read the book.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election#National_poll_results
Focal Data explains: "ASSUMING (sic) 2019 Conservatives still prefer the current government to the Labour Party (THEY DO) [eh???? how do you know that????], this exclusion will, generally speaking, reduce the headline vote share for Rishi Sunak's party."
https://www.focaldata.com/blog/why-do-pollsters-disagree-on-the-size-of-labours-lead
What is being written here is pure nonsense. What they need to explain is exactly how they came to determine that they prefer cons to labour and they can't - BECAUSE THEN THEY WOULD CEASE TO BE UNDECIDEDS......
From a research methodological this makes zero sense (I am a tenured academic marketer at a major London business school btw). On the one hand they are making an assumption and then declaring intrinsic knowledge about voting intentions.... which is exactly what we do not know. Let me say again: the whole point of don't knows is that they don't know and we don't know. Extrapolating from past behaviour which way they, on average, will tend will not work. I certainly do not think this is rigorous.
I would emphaticallyn not draw substantial conclusions from assumptions about behaviour among don't knows in this set up. In a research context I would probably need additional qualitative data to understand the underlying dimensions which in respondent sensemaking is driving uncertainty and how they assess the relative consequences of apathy versus a wasted vote. But this isn't science: at best it is guessing at worst it is metaphysics dressed up as data.
Buyer beware.....
The US's presidential pardon is of a different scale:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_pardoned_or_granted_clemency_by_the_president_of_the_United_States
I don't know what's behind 'they do' but it could, for example, relate to other measures than headline voting intention - favourability etc. Worth noting that FocalData are Squeezers not re-weighters, from their own account.
The re-weighting models are indeed based on a number of assumptions and, depending on validity of those, will either look good... or not!
Back from mouth mangling. Love the dentist service!
If there's a favourable poll, there'll be a panic in Labour HQ and we could see a dip in that 44 number.
1997 best (for the tories) - a 5 and a 10 deficit with ICM
2001 'best' - 11 points behind with ICM
https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1795468282570416508
Oh well, sorry Rishi! What an utter waste of money.
BREAKING:
Greater Manchester Police taking no further action over Angela Rayner house allegations
Deltapoll: Same
YouGov: Labour lead reducing by 5%
WeThink: Labour lead increasing by 2%
Opinium: Labour lead reducing by 4%
Techne: Labour lead increasing by 3%
More in Common: Labour lead increasing by 1%
Survation: Labour lead increasing by 1%
But apart from Deltapoll, no fieldwork at all since Saturday and the National Service policy dropped and maybe only a little bit of Deltapoll.
https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1795468798994059680/photo/1
HOW MUCH MONEY did this cost? PB worked this out months ago!
https://www.theguardian.com/education/article/2024/may/28/i-see-little-point-uk-university-students-on-why-attendance-has-plummeted
https://news.sky.com/story/tory-mp-who-complained-about-labours-angela-rayner-to-police-refuses-to-say-what-he-thinks-shes-done-wrong-13117144
"Human Scum"
(Aiui Trump refused a test, not that it was -ve.)
It isn't unrealistic to think that the ex Tory DKs may return in numbers to the Tories on the rational basis that those sick at heart at the party (like me) have opted for LD/Lab or won't vote; the issue is how many but it is reasonable to think lots of them are still considering it. Rishi thinks so, which is why a new piece of populist nonsense is promoted daily. Hanging for sheep stealing next.
"The survey of 1,500 adults showed that if you ask voters who they would rather go to the pub with, lend money to, get them to help put up a shelf, make them laugh, join their quiz team or cry on their shoulder – then Mr Starmer wins hands down every time.
The widest gap is over which one you would ask to do a DIY task, with Mr Starmer ahead by 39 per cent to 17 per cent, and the closest on who you would want on a pub quiz team, with the Labour leader ahead 38 per cent to 28 per cent."
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/starmer-sunak-poll-general-election-b2552092.html
For shame, sir!
We saw this done well in the 50s to the 80s with motorways with there always being something constructed and the consummate economic growth and productivity growth as a result.
Unfortunately since the 90s onwards there's been a pathetic lack of investment and its just been trying to cram more people into the infrastructure we already had.
We should be building new railways and new motorways, not expanding existing lines but entirely new lines, and it shouldn't be just one motorway/railway it should be a series of them across the country.
Improve the whole countries connections, by road and rail. Our productivity would dramatically improve and as you say if it is consistently done and not a white elephant then it costs a fraction of the amount.
Win/win.
Royal pardons seem to be a powerful power that is rarely used, and then not for the sake of the power.
Unlike presidential pardons.
She at least knows how to turn her caps lock off.
I ended up going with Nettle & Peppermint. With milk.
I used to dream of getting two likes.
This is the sort of thing that makes designers eyes bleed.
Thanks for posting.
Today's We Think has Lab lead up 2 at 25 SKS landslide
I missed it
I'd be expecting a significant (ie. outside of MoE) Refuk-Con swing after the weekend's flurry of announcements, but it might be too early for the effect to have fed through properly yet. We could be in for a few days of incrementally positive polling numbers for the Tories...
It's odd but I'm hearing more complacency from the blue team supporters than the red right now. It's a kind of wishful thinking that the Tories can take half the current Reform vote and that swingback is a physical law like gravity - both might happen but the Tories really have to earn those supporters back rather than wait for it to happen. At least National Service and Triple Lock Plus is doing something, even if it means voters towards the centre jumping ship.
Still less do I expect the Tories to lose less than a quarter of their 2019 voters and 100 seats.
AP (via Seattle Times) - Ohio lawmakers holding special session to ensure President Biden is on 2024 ballot
COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — Ohio lawmakers gathered Tuesday for a rare special session called by Republican Gov. Mike DeWine to pass legislation ensuring President Joe Biden appears on the state’s fall ballot.
Legislators have done this before for Republicans as well as Democrats, but the ability of voters to speak directly through the ballot initiative process on questions such as abortion has made reaching a solution more difficult in both chambers, where the GOP has lopsided majorities.
Negotiations between House and Senate on a solution to Biden’s ballot conundrum began Friday. State Rep. Bill Seitz told reporters during a conference call that he and state Sen. Rob McColley, both Republicans, are leading the talks, with no resolution announced as of Tuesday.
The legislation needs only to move Ohio’s Aug. 7 ballot deadline so that it falls after the Democratic National Convention where Biden will be formally nominated, which is scheduled for Aug. 19-22, in Chicago. The Republican convention, in Milwaukee, is July 15-18, so it doesn’t run afoul of Ohio’s rules this year.
Since Ohio changed its certification deadline from 60 to 90 days ahead of its general election, state lawmakers have had to adjust the requirement twice, in 2012 and 2020, to accommodate candidates of both leading parties. Each change was only temporary.
But the Senate sent its version of the ballot fix to the House after attaching a prohibition on foreign nationals donating to Ohio ballot campaigns, stopping it in its tracks.
DeWine urged legislators to pass the combination measure during the special session, but Democrats have balked, saying the proposal goes beyond the foreign nationals ban to add requirements intended to make it more difficult to mount future ballot campaigns in the state.
That’s after Ohio voters overwhelmingly approved three ballot measures last year, including a constitutional amendment protecting access to abortions that Republicans opposed and an initiated statute legalizing adult-use marijuana.
A “clean” House bill containing only the adjustment to Ohio’s ballot deadline may also be considered.
Due to differing interpretations of the proclamation DeWine issued Thursday, the Ohio Senate scheduled a single day of activity for Tuesday, while the Ohio House plans to begin with two days of committee hearings before taking its vote Thursday.
A Senate spokesman has said it’s possible the upper chamber can convene Tuesday and then recess to wait for the House.
It turned out to be, what's the word? Oh yes - utter bullshit.
The numbers are the numbers.... let's wait and see what they say and wait with predictions till we have something concrete. I am not saying there won't be a narrowing. But as of right now the poll of polls is widening. Let's see what happens.... but as a punter it is better not to let your hopes and wishes and biases govern your decision making. Are you projecting, or can you look into reality with truely dispassionate eyes?
But it makes for good 🍿 🍿 🍿
Anything below a 15 point deficit almost feels “good” for the Tories now. Still leads to a wretched result, but if they can hold onto 160-200 seats all things considered then they have a base to rebuild from.