Today's We Think has Lab lead up 2 at 25 SKS landslide
Guido's confirmed a positive poll for the Tories
It shows Massive Johnson would be doing even worse?
Positive from the Tories' perspective then. Small blue lead?
Over whom?
Everyone else? Like, leading the polls? Certainly the rumour that Guido’s presenting
I am not seeing that on the Guido Twitter feed, just the report of a rumour there is a positive poll for the Tories. But maybe I am not picking all the Tweets up. Anyway, Survation would see to be the obvious contender as it had Labour on 48 last week with the Greens on 2, so that looked like a significant outlier and Labour's number is almost certain to go down. If ythat is accompanied by a rise in the Tory number, it would certainly be interesting.
Edit to add -the important thing to remember is that in most election swingback occurs so the polling figures from Yellow / Green pollsters will be more accurate, however in 1997 that wasn't the case and the Red posters were more accurate.
Take your pick but one side (swingback) gives the Tories 100-200 seats and the other anything from 20-140...
Swingback, you say?
So far, it's striking how little that dog has barked. These graphs are up to late March 2024, but not a lot has happened since then ...
Chris Hopkins just made a comment about pollsters warning about 'changes outside the MoE' needing caution and 'be interesting to see if they fo' for this one........' Which suggests a big drop in lead with one of them or a big vote share leap
Closing argument for Trump's defense seems to be going reasonably well, minimising his involvement in things and presenting it all as much ado about nothing, but then if you cannot pull together a decent closing argument in a case you might as well turn in your bar licence.
They are actually being extremely naughty, at least if their rules of evidence are anything like ours. They are trying to give Trump's evidence for him when he chose not to go on to the stand and face cross. Saying what Trump might have said or meant when he has not given evidence is not on. I expect that the Judge will emphasise that when he gives his directions.
Doctor Who and Sherlock writer Steven Moffat: "our current government basically found somebody else's mandate down the back of a sofa and that's not how it's supposed to work."
Dr Who is a load of shite, and Brown didn't win a general election. Apart from that, well done.
He said Boris won an election which he did.
He also says "we have a PM who not only didn't win an election". Same as Brown. And Dr Who is a load of shite.
It's a misunderstanding of our electoral system - Rishi has won multiple elections in Richmondshire and there is no such thing as an election for PM, they are appointed based on the party whose candidates won most (local seats).
Even the fact he didn't win the party vote makes little sense - Rishi won the vote of the Tory MPs only to lose it to in the membership vote...
That argument sounds bizarre to me. The rules of the Tory Leadership is that the MPs pick the top two and then the members pick between them, you can't just ignore the rules and say that Sunak didn't lose because he come first in the first part of the contest. Who's to say that between Truss and Sunak the Tory MPs wouldn't have gone for Truss anyway?
The way things were originally structured was MPs get elected to represent their constituents and they then elect a leader who is Prime Minister.
That was changed when the membership was given a say in picking the leader of the party but my view of that has always been that members can have a say in opposition but only MPs should have a say when the party is in Government.
What we saw in 2022 was a leader being elected by a small minority of the public who then enacted polices that that small minority loved but within 2 months almost destroyed the economy...
It all seems rather tame compared to the oddity of presidential pardons...
We do have the royal pardon, there's nothing to stop Rishi Sunak letting anyone he likes out of prison, it's just that we don't do it as much as the Americans do.
As far as I can work out 3 since 2000 (for living prisoners), but as I said, we don't do it as much as the Americans do.
Indeed. And do you *agree* with those three? Were they valid or invalid?
Royal pardons seem to be a powerful power that is rarely used, and then not for the sake of the power.
Unlike presidential pardons.
There was Steve Gallant, the murderer on day release who defended people from the London Bridge attacker in 2019 and I think that most people would agree that he deserved early release. However I imagine his victim's family wouldn't feel like Gallant's heroic actions undid the harm he caused to them. It's a difficult decision to make and I'm glad that I wouldn't ever have to make it.
Today's We Think has Lab lead up 2 at 25 SKS landslide
Guido's confirmed a positive poll for the Tories
It shows Massive Johnson would be doing even worse?
Positive from the Tories' perspective then. Small blue lead?
Over whom?
Everyone else? Like, leading the polls? Certainly the rumour that Guido’s presenting
I am not seeing that on the Guido Twitter feed, just the report of a rumour there is a positive poll for the Tories. But maybe I am not picking all the Tweets up. Anyway, Survation would see to be the obvious contender as it had Labour on 48 last week with the Greens on 2, so that looked like a significant outlier and Labour's number is almost certain to go down. If ythat is accompanied by a rise in the Tory number, it would certainly be interesting.
Maybe it’s the Redfield and Wilton mega poll out in half an hour . I should say that a larger sample doesn’t always mean a more accurate poll . Any errors are magnified so you have to ensure your sampling is on the ball .
Closing argument for Trump's defense seems to be going reasonably well, minimising his involvement in things and presenting it all as much ado about nothing, but then if you cannot pull together a decent closing argument in a case you might as well turn in your bar licence.
They are actually being extremely naughty, at least if their rules of evidence are anything like ours. They are trying to give Trump's evidence for him when he chose not to go on to the stand and face cross. Saying what Trump might have said or meant when he has not given evidence is not on. I expect that the Judge will emphasise that when he gives his directions.
That sounds like a reckless strategy, rather than a naughty one. If their speech is disallowed in evidence doesn't that leave the defence with a number of awkward holes in it?
The "positive" poll is coming from Redfield and Wilton, the scamps.
Being above twenty percent is seen as positive by the Conservatives.
Guido was, however inadvertently, spreading a rumour that turned out to not be true.
That polling is bad - very bad for the Tories. It's almost the worst ever polling for the Tories by Survation has a Labour lead well above where it was before (they clearly state their tory lead has historically been a steady 17-18 points while other polls ranged from 16-25 points And the Tory vote seems to have gone to Lab / Lib Dems rather than Reform
so the tory plan to shore up Reform minded voters hasn't change reform votes but is scaring centralist tory voters away.
Edit to add -the important thing to remember is that in most election swingback occurs so the polling figures from Yellow / Green pollsters will be more accurate, however in 1997 that wasn't the case and the Red posters were more accurate.
Take your pick but one side (swingback) gives the Tories 100-200 seats and the other anything from 20-140...
Swingback, you say?
So far, it's striking how little that dog has barked. These graphs are up to late March 2024, but not a lot has happened since then ...
Interesting, bit what we really want to see is the 100 days before the election, not 1500.
I think my take is that big swingback starts well before the campaign proper- a couple of years out. Baiscally, a well-organised government does the painful necessary stuff in years 1 and 2 with the hope that it will visibly pay off by year 4. Hence mid-term blues and the swing back from them.
Coivd rather blew up that model for the class of 2019, though Boris's hatred of short term pain and Truss's impatience would have done that anyway.
The "positive" poll is coming from Redfield and Wilton, the scamps.
Being above twenty percent is seen as positive by the Conservatives.
Guido was, however inadvertently, spreading a rumour that turned out to not be true.
That polling is bad - very bad for the Tories. It's almost the worst ever polling for the Tories by Survation has a Labour lead well above where it was before (they clearly state their tory lead had been 17-18 points while other polls ranged from 16-25 points And the Tory vote seems to have gone to Lab / Lib Dems rather than Reform
so the tory plan to shore up Reform minded voters hasn't change reform votes but is scaring centralist tory voters away.
I have voted Tory in every General Election except the one where I was 18 (2001) when I voted Labour.
I've not decided whom I'll vote for this election, but there's not a snowball's chance in hell of it being Rishi Sunak's National Service party.
A campaign supporting working people as Jeremy Hunt has tried to do with cutting NI, making that a centrepiece, I could have been won back, but Sunak has driven a stake through any chance of that now.
Doctor Who and Sherlock writer Steven Moffat: "our current government basically found somebody else's mandate down the back of a sofa and that's not how it's supposed to work."
Dr Who is a load of shite, and Brown didn't win a general election. Apart from that, well done.
He said Boris won an election which he did.
He also says "we have a PM who not only didn't win an election". Same as Brown. And Dr Who is a load of shite.
It's a misunderstanding of our electoral system - Rishi has won multiple elections in Richmondshire and there is no such thing as an election for PM, they are appointed based on the party whose candidates won most (local seats).
Even the fact he didn't win the party vote makes little sense - Rishi won the vote of the Tory MPs only to lose it to in the membership vote...
That argument sounds bizarre to me. The rules of the Tory Leadership is that the MPs pick the top two and then the members pick between them, you can't just ignore the rules and say that Sunak didn't lose because he come first in the first part of the contest. Who's to say that between Truss and Sunak the Tory MPs wouldn't have gone for Truss anyway?
The way things were originally structured was MPs get elected to represent their constituents and they then elect a leader who is Prime Minister.
That was changed when the membership was given a say in picking the leader of the party but my view of that has always been that members can have a say in opposition but only MPs should have a say when the party is in Government.
What we saw in 2022 was a leader being elected by a small minority of the public who then enacted polices that that small minority loved but within 2 months almost destroyed the economy...
It all seems rather tame compared to the oddity of presidential pardons...
We do have the royal pardon, there's nothing to stop Rishi Sunak letting anyone he likes out of prison, it's just that we don't do it as much as the Americans do.
As far as I can work out 3 since 2000 (for living prisoners), but as I said, we don't do it as much as the Americans do.
Indeed. And do you *agree* with those three? Were they valid or invalid?
Royal pardons seem to be a powerful power that is rarely used, and then not for the sake of the power.
Unlike presidential pardons.
There was Steve Gallant, the murderer on day release who defended people from the London Bridge attacker in 2019 and I think that most people would agree that he deserved early release. However I imagine his victim's family wouldn't feel like Gallant's heroic actions undid the harm he caused to them. It's a difficult decision to make and I'm glad that I wouldn't ever have to make it.
IMV it was a case of a power rarely used, that was wisely used.
I went by the actual quote from Barrie Jackson's son "I have mixed emotions – but what happened at London Bridge goes to show the reality that people can change.” rather than the gloss the Guardian put on his words but if you want to just nitpick to the nth degree then be my guest.
Doctor Who and Sherlock writer Steven Moffat: "our current government basically found somebody else's mandate down the back of a sofa and that's not how it's supposed to work."
Dr Who is a load of shite, and Brown didn't win a general election. Apart from that, well done.
He said Boris won an election which he did.
He also says "we have a PM who not only didn't win an election". Same as Brown. And Dr Who is a load of shite.
It's a misunderstanding of our electoral system - Rishi has won multiple elections in Richmondshire and there is no such thing as an election for PM, they are appointed based on the party whose candidates won most (local seats).
Even the fact he didn't win the party vote makes little sense - Rishi won the vote of the Tory MPs only to lose it to in the membership vote...
That argument sounds bizarre to me. The rules of the Tory Leadership is that the MPs pick the top two and then the members pick between them, you can't just ignore the rules and say that Sunak didn't lose because he come first in the first part of the contest. Who's to say that between Truss and Sunak the Tory MPs wouldn't have gone for Truss anyway?
The way things were originally structured was MPs get elected to represent their constituents and they then elect a leader who is Prime Minister.
That was changed when the membership was given a say in picking the leader of the party but my view of that has always been that members can have a say in opposition but only MPs should have a say when the party is in Government.
What we saw in 2022 was a leader being elected by a small minority of the public who then enacted polices that that small minority loved but within 2 months almost destroyed the economy...
It all seems rather tame compared to the oddity of presidential pardons...
We do have the royal pardon, there's nothing to stop Rishi Sunak letting anyone he likes out of prison, it's just that we don't do it as much as the Americans do.
The "positive" poll is coming from Redfield and Wilton, the scamps.
Being above twenty percent is seen as positive by the Conservatives.
Guido was, however inadvertently, spreading a rumour that turned out to not be true.
That polling is bad - very bad for the Tories. It's almost the worst ever polling for the Tories by Survation has a Labour lead well above where it was before (they clearly state their tory lead had been 17-18 points while other polls ranged from 16-25 points And the Tory vote seems to have gone to Lab / Lib Dems rather than Reform
so the tory plan to shore up Reform minded voters hasn't change reform votes but is scaring centralist tory voters away.
Which some people were saying was always likely. If you go culture war, you legitimise the culture warriors which puts off the centrists. But it doesn't satisfy the warriors either. To quote the Danny Baker Show, it's giving a starving dog a rubber bone.
Today's We Think has Lab lead up 2 at 25 SKS landslide
Guido's confirmed a positive poll for the Tories
It shows Massive Johnson would be doing even worse?
Positive from the Tories' perspective then. Small blue lead?
Over whom?
Everyone else? Like, leading the polls? Certainly the rumour that Guido’s presenting
I am not seeing that on the Guido Twitter feed, just the report of a rumour there is a positive poll for the Tories. But maybe I am not picking all the Tweets up. Anyway, Survation would see to be the obvious contender as it had Labour on 48 last week with the Greens on 2, so that looked like a significant outlier and Labour's number is almost certain to go down. If ythat is accompanied by a rise in the Tory number, it would certainly be interesting.
Must R&W and/or JL Partners.
JL Partners is the most Tory-leaning of the pack at the moment, their last poll had Labour on 41%, Conservatives on 26% and Reform on 13% so maybe Con+Ref>Lab?
The "positive" poll is coming from Redfield and Wilton, the scamps.
Being above twenty percent is seen as positive by the Conservatives.
Guido was, however inadvertently, spreading a rumour that turned out to not be true.
That polling is bad - very bad for the Tories. It's almost the worst ever polling for the Tories by Survation has a Labour lead well above where it was before (they clearly state their tory lead has historically been a steady 17-18 points while other polls ranged from 16-25 points And the Tory vote seems to have gone to Lab / Lib Dems rather than Reform
so the tory plan to shore up Reform minded voters hasn't change reform votes but is scaring centralist tory voters away.
To misquote Sir Humphrey, to call what they're doing a 'plan' is to confuse inadequacy for strategy.
Closing argument for Trump's defense seems to be going reasonably well, minimising his involvement in things and presenting it all as much ado about nothing, but then if you cannot pull together a decent closing argument in a case you might as well turn in your bar licence.
They are actually being extremely naughty, at least if their rules of evidence are anything like ours. They are trying to give Trump's evidence for him when he chose not to go on to the stand and face cross. Saying what Trump might have said or meant when he has not given evidence is not on. I expect that the Judge will emphasise that when he gives his directions.
That sounds like a reckless strategy, rather than a naughty one. If their speech is disallowed in evidence doesn't that leave the defence with a number of awkward holes in it?
What defence? There isn't a defence. The only witnesses called by the defence were a record keeper and an attorney who did nothing but bad mouth Cohen. None of the substantive facts have been in dispute from the beginning of the trial and the vouching produced has been fairly comprehensive. So, for example, Blanche is now maintaining that Cohen decided to pay Stormy $130k himself without any sanction or authorisation from Trump. There is absolutely no evidence before the court which vouches that.
If he wasn't paying Daniels why was there a NDA? Its ridiculous.
The only defence is that there is no crime, that all of what the state have proven he did was just the normal business of politics and election campaigns and that there was nothing illegal about it. We have a series of entries which amount to false entries but these are just misdemeanours and they can't be converted into crimes unless they are to facilitate a crime.
Instead, the defence seems to be gambling on trying to disprove the evidence heard in the closing argument. American law may be different but to me it just sounds weird. Our juries are always told that the speeches and indeed the charge from the Judge are not evidence. The evidence is the answers given by witnesses who were there to be crossed and challenged.
Doctor Who and Sherlock writer Steven Moffat: "our current government basically found somebody else's mandate down the back of a sofa and that's not how it's supposed to work."
Dr Who is a load of shite, and Brown didn't win a general election. Apart from that, well done.
He said Boris won an election which he did.
He also says "we have a PM who not only didn't win an election". Same as Brown. And Dr Who is a load of shite.
It's a misunderstanding of our electoral system - Rishi has won multiple elections in Richmondshire and there is no such thing as an election for PM, they are appointed based on the party whose candidates won most (local seats).
Even the fact he didn't win the party vote makes little sense - Rishi won the vote of the Tory MPs only to lose it to in the membership vote...
That argument sounds bizarre to me. The rules of the Tory Leadership is that the MPs pick the top two and then the members pick between them, you can't just ignore the rules and say that Sunak didn't lose because he come first in the first part of the contest. Who's to say that between Truss and Sunak the Tory MPs wouldn't have gone for Truss anyway?
The way things were originally structured was MPs get elected to represent their constituents and they then elect a leader who is Prime Minister.
That was changed when the membership was given a say in picking the leader of the party but my view of that has always been that members can have a say in opposition but only MPs should have a say when the party is in Government.
What we saw in 2022 was a leader being elected by a small minority of the public who then enacted polices that that small minority loved but within 2 months almost destroyed the economy...
It all seems rather tame compared to the oddity of presidential pardons...
We do have the royal pardon, there's nothing to stop Rishi Sunak letting anyone he likes out of prison, it's just that we don't do it as much as the Americans do.
As far as I can work out 3 since 2000 (for living prisoners), but as I said, we don't do it as much as the Americans do.
I didn't even know we still had pardon powers. The Presidential and Governor pardons seems absurdly high.
High? Well, no clue how much Trump charged on average per pardon, though personally reckon it may have been bit more than $0. Perhaps greater (with inflation factored in) than Lloyd George's average take per peerage?
At the US state level, knew a guy who claimed that he got out of prison in Mississippi, because his mother paid somewhere south of $1,000 (over half-century ago) to someone in the governor's office. Certainly NOT unheard of esp. in Southern states.
Carroll’s lawyers have said they’re suing again over this tweet.
Meechan has difficult decisions to make about what to do about the repeated breaches of his court order. He really should jail him for a period now. He has had plenty of warnings.
Closing argument for Trump's defense seems to be going reasonably well, minimising his involvement in things and presenting it all as much ado about nothing, but then if you cannot pull together a decent closing argument in a case you might as well turn in your bar licence.
They are actually being extremely naughty, at least if their rules of evidence are anything like ours. They are trying to give Trump's evidence for him when he chose not to go on to the stand and face cross. Saying what Trump might have said or meant when he has not given evidence is not on. I expect that the Judge will emphasise that when he gives his directions.
That sounds like a reckless strategy, rather than a naughty one. If their speech is disallowed in evidence doesn't that leave the defence with a number of awkward holes in it?
What defence? There isn't a defence. The only witnesses called by the defence were a record keeper and an attorney who did nothing but bad mouth Cohen. None of the substantive facts have been in dispute from the beginning of the trial and the vouching produced has been fairly comprehensive. So, for example, Blanche is now maintaining that Cohen decided to pay Stormy $130k himself without any sanction or authorisation from Trump. There is absolutely no evidence before the court which vouches that.
If he wasn't paying Daniels why was there a NDA? Its ridiculous.
The only defence is that there is no crime, that all of what the state have proven he did was just the normal business of politics and election campaigns and that there was nothing illegal about it. We have a series of entries which amount to false entries but these are just misdemeanours and they can't be converted into crimes unless they are to facilitate a crime.
Instead, the defence seems to be gambling on trying to disprove the evidence heard in the closing argument. American law may be different but to me it just sounds weird. Our juries are always told that the speeches and indeed the charge from the Judge are not evidence. The evidence is the answers given by witnesses who were there to be crossed and challenged.
Today's We Think has Lab lead up 2 at 25 SKS landslide
Guido's confirmed a positive poll for the Tories
It shows Massive Johnson would be doing even worse?
Positive from the Tories' perspective then. Small blue lead?
Over whom?
Everyone else? Like, leading the polls? Certainly the rumour that Guido’s presenting
I am not seeing that on the Guido Twitter feed, just the report of a rumour there is a positive poll for the Tories. But maybe I am not picking all the Tweets up. Anyway, Survation would see to be the obvious contender as it had Labour on 48 last week with the Greens on 2, so that looked like a significant outlier and Labour's number is almost certain to go down. If ythat is accompanied by a rise in the Tory number, it would certainly be interesting.
Must R&W and/or JL Partners.
JL Partners is the most Tory-leaning of the pack at the moment, their last poll had Labour on 41%, Conservatives on 26% and Reform on 13% so maybe Con+Ref>Lab?
Con 29%, Reform 10% or something similar would be my expectation. That doesn't actually help the tories as much as they hope though
The interesting thing about here poll rumours is how they can be true, surely it’s seriously against the interests of the polling firm to leak before the embargo.
So sounds like @Survation and @RedfieldWilton have Labour still 20+ ahead given what is flying around MPs whatsapps.... but @JLPartnersPolls sounds like it might give Tory MPs something to cheer...
Today's We Think has Lab lead up 2 at 25 SKS landslide
Guido's confirmed a positive poll for the Tories
It shows Massive Johnson would be doing even worse?
Positive from the Tories' perspective then. Small blue lead?
Over whom?
Everyone else? Like, leading the polls? Certainly the rumour that Guido’s presenting
I am not seeing that on the Guido Twitter feed, just the report of a rumour there is a positive poll for the Tories. But maybe I am not picking all the Tweets up. Anyway, Survation would see to be the obvious contender as it had Labour on 48 last week with the Greens on 2, so that looked like a significant outlier and Labour's number is almost certain to go down. If ythat is accompanied by a rise in the Tory number, it would certainly be interesting.
Must R&W and/or JL Partners.
JL Partners is the most Tory-leaning of the pack at the moment, their last poll had Labour on 41%, Conservatives on 26% and Reform on 13% so maybe Con+Ref>Lab?
Con 29%, Reform 10% or something similar would be my expectation. That doesn't actually help the tories as much as they hope though
My guess is some people vote Tory with the biggest clothes peg on their nose in history, just to ensure Labour don't have a landslide with zero opposition.
Closing argument for Trump's defense seems to be going reasonably well, minimising his involvement in things and presenting it all as much ado about nothing, but then if you cannot pull together a decent closing argument in a case you might as well turn in your bar licence.
They are actually being extremely naughty, at least if their rules of evidence are anything like ours. They are trying to give Trump's evidence for him when he chose not to go on to the stand and face cross. Saying what Trump might have said or meant when he has not given evidence is not on. I expect that the Judge will emphasise that when he gives his directions.
That sounds like a reckless strategy, rather than a naughty one. If their speech is disallowed in evidence doesn't that leave the defence with a number of awkward holes in it?
What defence? There isn't a defence. The only witnesses called by the defence were a record keeper and an attorney who did nothing but bad mouth Cohen...
..and fairly clearly perjure himself on the stand, along with having the judge clear the court to admonish him for his behaviour.
Carroll’s lawyers have said they’re suing again over this tweet.
Meechan has difficult decisions to make about what to do about the repeated breaches of his court order. He really should jail him for a period now. He has had plenty of warnings.
It's not clear to me that the above breaches the gag order. Looks like potential trouble on the old repeated defamation front, but that's not Meechan's business is it?
The tweet is about Carroll, not Daniels, so it doesn’t breach Meechan’s order, no.
JL Partners were also the ones with that National Service poll showing it was +8 favourable and only -3 with 18-34 year olds. If there's anywhere near right, they should show a decent Tory improvement on the 26% they showed last time.
Labour MP @RachaelMaskell : “We must keep going [with mass migration] until we really are at saturation point, because what does it matter if we have to wait another week for a hospital visit? Or if our class sizes are slightly bigger, or if our city is slightly fuller? What does it matter if things are slightly more challenging, if we have to pay a little bit more into the system? Surely it is worth it.”
Darren Grimes literally sharing deep fakes now.
And the worrying thing is how his supporters and responders believe it! Worrying!
Labour MP @RachaelMaskell : “We must keep going [with mass migration] until we really are at saturation point, because what does it matter if we have to wait another week for a hospital visit? Or if our class sizes are slightly bigger, or if our city is slightly fuller? What does it matter if things are slightly more challenging, if we have to pay a little bit more into the system? Surely it is worth it.”
Darren Grimes literally sharing deep fakes now.
And the worrying thing is how his supporters and responders believe it! Worrying!
Labour 46% (+1) Conservative 23% (–) Reform UK 13% (+1) Lib Dem 9% (-1) Green 5% (–) SNP 3% (+1) Other 3% (+2)
R&W
Labour +1, sample size: 12000. Cross tabs will be interesting.
How do the Tories get themselves up to 30% and avoid total disaster?
I’m convinced they will poll over 30% as there’s more bungs coming to their core vote . Some movement from reform , and DKs should see them get there .
Labour 46% (+1) Conservative 23% (–) Reform UK 13% (+1) Lib Dem 9% (-1) Green 5% (–) SNP 3% (+1) Other 3% (+2)
R&W
Labour +1, sample size: 12000. Cross tabs will be interesting.
How do the Tories get themselves up to 30% and avoid total disaster?
Presumably they think it's by annoying even more 18-50 year olds. Most people don't want more money confiscated to fund the wealthiest cohort in history while their children/themselves are sent away to war.
Next stop will be hanging and local vetoes on nearby housing at this rate.
Labour MP @RachaelMaskell : “We must keep going [with mass migration] until we really are at saturation point, because what does it matter if we have to wait another week for a hospital visit? Or if our class sizes are slightly bigger, or if our city is slightly fuller? What does it matter if things are slightly more challenging, if we have to pay a little bit more into the system? Surely it is worth it.”
Darren Grimes literally sharing deep fakes now.
And the worrying thing is how his supporters and responders believe it! Worrying!
Labour MP @RachaelMaskell : “We must keep going [with mass migration] until we really are at saturation point, because what does it matter if we have to wait another week for a hospital visit? Or if our class sizes are slightly bigger, or if our city is slightly fuller? What does it matter if things are slightly more challenging, if we have to pay a little bit more into the system? Surely it is worth it.”
Darren Grimes literally sharing deep fakes now.
And the worrying thing is how his supporters and responders believe it! Worrying!
It's a video from the BBC. It's not fake, just from 2015:
Today's We Think has Lab lead up 2 at 25 SKS landslide
Guido's confirmed a positive poll for the Tories
It shows Massive Johnson would be doing even worse?
Positive from the Tories' perspective then. Small blue lead?
Over whom?
Everyone else? Like, leading the polls? Certainly the rumour that Guido’s presenting
I am not seeing that on the Guido Twitter feed, just the report of a rumour there is a positive poll for the Tories. But maybe I am not picking all the Tweets up. Anyway, Survation would see to be the obvious contender as it had Labour on 48 last week with the Greens on 2, so that looked like a significant outlier and Labour's number is almost certain to go down. If ythat is accompanied by a rise in the Tory number, it would certainly be interesting.
Must R&W and/or JL Partners.
JL Partners is the most Tory-leaning of the pack at the moment, their last poll had Labour on 41%, Conservatives on 26% and Reform on 13% so maybe Con+Ref>Lab?
Con 29%, Reform 10% or something similar would be my expectation. That doesn't actually help the tories as much as they hope though
My guess is some people vote Tory with the biggest clothes peg on their nose in history, just to ensure Labour don't have a landslide with zero opposition.
It's going to take a lot of people doing that to solve the tory party problem - I can't see that many people willing to vote with a clothes peg on their nose...
Labour MP @RachaelMaskell : “We must keep going [with mass migration] until we really are at saturation point, because what does it matter if we have to wait another week for a hospital visit? Or if our class sizes are slightly bigger, or if our city is slightly fuller? What does it matter if things are slightly more challenging, if we have to pay a little bit more into the system? Surely it is worth it.”
Darren Grimes literally sharing deep fakes now.
And the worrying thing is how his supporters and responders believe it! Worrying!
Maybe it’s the Redfield and Wilton mega poll out in half an hour . I should say that a larger sample doesn’t always mean a more accurate poll . Any errors are magnified so you have to ensure your sampling is on the ball .
What you say is true. However, larger sample sizes DO mean larger SUB-samples which (tends to) decrease margins-of-error for subs (polling-wise anyways).
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HM Revenue and Customs also looked into Angela Rayner’s tax arrangements relating to the sale of her first home, at her request, and it is understood that no further action is being taken.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/may/28/tories-triple-lock-plus-planned-tax-cut-pensioners-labour-rishi-sunak-general-election
23 point Labour lead.
LAB 47 (-1)
CON 24 (-3)
LD 11 (+3)
GRN 3 (+1)
RFM 8 (-)
SNP 3 (-)
https://x.com/Survation/status/1795478016052633732
Rishi Sunak: 29% (-)
Keir Starmer: 40% (-3)
Don’t know: 32% (+3)
https://x.com/Survation/status/1795478018808217907
Party leaders’ trust on the economy:
Rishi Sunak: 31% (-1)
Keir Starmer: 40% (-1)
Don’t know: 29% (+3)
https://x.com/Survation/status/1795478016052633732
hancellor and Shadow Chancellor’s trust on the economy:
Jeremy Hunt: 30% (-1)
Rachel Reeves: 42% (-1)
Don’t know: 28% (-2)
https://x.com/Survation/status/1795478016052633732
Was it?
NEW: First Westminster voting intention from the campaign period.
23 point Labour lead.
LAB 47 (-1)
CON 24 (-3)
LD 11 (+3)
GRN 3 (+1)
RFM 8 (-)
SNP 3 (-)
OTH 4 (-)
F/w 24th - 27th May. Changes vs. 22nd May 2024.
Which suggests a big drop in lead with one of them or a big vote share leap
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1795478013594735043
The interesting thing is how people respond.
In the meantime, the shock and awe Conservative campaign is definitely capturing attention. Not to be underestimated. Quite Trumpian.
NEW: First Westminster voting intention from the campaign period.
23 point Labour lead.
LAB 47 (-1)
CON 24 (-3)
LD 11 (+3)
GRN 3 (+1)
RFM 8 (-)
SNP 3 (-)
OTH 4 (-)
R&W and JL Partners also with numbers tonight. It must be one of those two.
https://www.hudgellsolicitors.co.uk/news/civil-liberties/prisoner-steven-gallant-granted-royal-pardon-to-apply-for-early-release-after-exceptionally-brave-actions-tackling-london-bridge-terrorist
"However I imagine his victim's family wouldn't feel like Gallant's heroic actions undid the harm he caused to them."
"In an extraordinary turn of events, the family of firefighter Barrie Jackson, whom Gallant killed outside a pub in Hull, backed the decision to free the murderer early."
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/oct/18/murderer-who-tackled-london-bridge-attacker-with-narwhal-tusk-pardoned
IMV it was a case of a power rarely used, that was wisely used.
The "positive" poll is coming from Redfield and Wilton, the scamps.
Being above twenty percent is seen as positive by the Conservatives.
Guido was, however inadvertently, spreading a rumour that turned out to not be true.
So questions, do R&F/JL attempt to move voters from don't know unlike Survation?
Yeah yeah
It's almost the worst ever polling for the Tories by Survation
has a Labour lead well above where it was before (they clearly state their tory lead has historically been a steady 17-18 points while other polls ranged from 16-25 points
And the Tory vote seems to have gone to Lab / Lib Dems rather than Reform
so the tory plan to shore up Reform minded voters hasn't change reform votes but is scaring centralist tory voters away.
Coivd rather blew up that model for the class of 2019, though Boris's hatred of short term pain and Truss's impatience would have done that anyway.
I've not decided whom I'll vote for this election, but there's not a snowball's chance in hell of it being Rishi Sunak's National Service party.
A campaign supporting working people as Jeremy Hunt has tried to do with cutting NI, making that a centrepiece, I could have been won back, but Sunak has driven a stake through any chance of that now.
Tory MP disappointment has been triggered.
#strawclutching
If he wasn't paying Daniels why was there a NDA? Its ridiculous.
The only defence is that there is no crime, that all of what the state have proven he did was just the normal business of politics and election campaigns and that there was nothing illegal about it. We have a series of entries which amount to false entries but these are just misdemeanours and they can't be converted into crimes unless they are to facilitate a crime.
Instead, the defence seems to be gambling on trying to disprove the evidence heard in the closing argument. American law may be different but to me it just sounds weird. Our juries are always told that the speeches and indeed the charge from the Judge are not evidence. The evidence is the answers given by witnesses who were there to be crossed and challenged.
Labour 504
Tories 64
Lib Dems 48
Green 1
SNP 12
I missed a trick I didn't realise that Labour need 500 seats for the Tories to be below 50..
Edit now rectified - Labour 500+ seats at 16-1 taken.
Worth noting that DKs are almost always 2/3 female, so not a Tory friendly demographic.
At the US state level, knew a guy who claimed that he got out of prison in Mississippi, because his mother paid somewhere south of $1,000 (over half-century ago) to someone in the governor's office. Certainly NOT unheard of esp. in Southern states.
Labour: 41%
Conservatives: 26%
Lib Dem: 11%
SNP: 3%
Green: 5%
Refuk: 13%
*Labour leads by 15 points*
The Rest is Politics / J.L. Partners voting intention poll - 2-5 May 2024
So from before the Refuk share started to fall back - you'd definitely be expecting a Refuk-Con swing from those numbers.
Nothing to lose.
https://x.com/MrHarryCole/status/1795484498743984267
So 2/3 say the Tories are buggered.
If they can go from 57 to 8 in one go, why can't they go from 11 to 44 seats in one go?
Some pollsters tweak their methodology once an election date is confirmed.
Some dramatic shifts could be down to that.
12,000 Sample.
Labour leads by 23%.
Westminster Voting Intention (25-27 May):
Labour 46% (+1)
Conservative 23% (–)
Reform UK 13% (+1)
Lib Dem 9% (-1)
Green 5% (–)
SNP 3% (+1)
Other 3% (+2)
Changes +/- 19 May
https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1795485183073775620
Conservative 23% (–)
Reform UK 13% (+1)
Lib Dem 9% (-1)
Green 5% (–)
SNP 3% (+1)
Other 3% (+2)
R&W
Labour +1, sample size: 12000. Cross tabs will be interesting.
Is it just possible the public have simply stopped listening.
SKS landslide
Edit: you guys are too quick for me - must try harder!
This is what we have to look forward to.
Labour MP
@RachaelMaskell
: “We must keep going [with mass migration] until we really are at saturation point, because what does it matter if we have to wait another week for a hospital visit? Or if our class sizes are slightly bigger, or if our city is slightly fuller? What does it matter if things are slightly more challenging, if we have to pay a little bit more into the system? Surely it is worth it.”
Darren Grimes literally sharing deep fakes now.
And the worrying thing is how his supporters and responders believe it! Worrying!
Redfield Saturday to yesterday
Largest EVER lead for Starmer over Sunak.
Lowest % EVER to pick Sunak.
At this moment, which of the following do Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK? (25-27 May)
Keir Starmer 45% (+1)
Rishi Sunak 26% (-4)
Changes +/- 19 May
Next stop will be hanging and local vetoes on nearby housing at this rate.
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1030068933693025
And they need 60% of that Reform vote to hit 30%, and I suspect only 30% of it is (at best) inclined to vote tory.
She equates 30,000 with "6 per constituency".
6 * 650 != 30,000
Labour will be hugely relieved and so will those of us who want rid of the Tories .