West Ham midfielder Lucas Paqueta has been charged by the Football Association for allegedly getting booked deliberately "for the improper purpose of affecting the betting market"
Lucas on BBC. Amazingly, talking about environmental issues.
I thought she was in the Green Party - what about Trans and Gaza?
Well your Party
Has binned the New Green Deal in favour of austerity (same as the Blue Tories)
Support Zionism without question and cheerleads Genocide in Gaza (like the blue Tories)
Is all over the place on Trans rights (depends on what is considered most popular)
Enjoy voting for the Party with Zero principles and rotating policies
I thought you supported Galloway's bunch now? I lose track.
Well you aren't paying much attention.
I have been a member of the Green Party since 2022 and will be voting for them.
In Rochdale GG was the best option for defeating the GAZA Genocide cheerleaders and the Greens withdrew support for their own Candidate due to Islamophobic tweets.
Anyway what are you most looking forward to under PM SKS and austerity Reeves
More NHS privatisation? Austerity on stilts? Zionism without qualification? Not Nationalising water? Increasing funding for wars? Weekly U Turns on Policy?
What sort of qualification do you need for Zionism? Would an A'level be enough, or do you need a degree in it?
Think you just need to expel the wrong kind of Jews and you qualify
What are the right kind of Jews you want to expel?
Quite surprised Merriman is standing down. Been an OK minister, quite young and v safe seat.
I rate him quite highly.
He's still only 50. Young enough for a shortish but lucratiive second career earning lots more than he would earn doing the boring slog of an opposition MP on MPs pay (not a miinister's pay, as now). Not surprising he's bolted
MP for what used to be known as God's Waiting Room in the shape of Bexhill.
First poll post call is out MORE IN COMMON Lab 44(+1) Con 27 (-) Ref 10 (-1) Ld 9 (-) Green 5 (-1 ) SnP 3
I think we in the end see the Tories scrape to 30 by squeezing Ref, Lib Dems nick a point or two off Lab. And that will be it.
Yeah I don't see Labour getting 44%, the real important number is the Tory one, again I can't see them polling much below 30, that would still see Labour home with a big majority
"Watching her today made me realize what a cruel place we live in. I don't believe she deliberately set about trying to ruin the lives of innocent people but somehow we can't free ourselves from the ghoulish delight of public humiliation. Watching Alex Thompson of Ch4 News lifting her umbrella as she tried to leave the court so he could bully her further was almost unwatchable."
I watched part of her 'testimony' whilst at the gym, and she was being thoroughly demolished. The email about historic cases was particularly eye-opening.
But I do think the behaviour of the Ch4 news journalist was wrong. Her being a sh*t does not excuse him being one, too.
Comments about Farage on this GB News video are pretty brutal
Think the penny might finally have dropped with this grifters fan base.
What reemerges from the wreckage of the right after this elecion will probably be much younger and more right wing.
Yes, mirroring what’s been seen in the US this year.
The very weird trend is that people are no longer trending right as they get older to the same extent as previously (possibly related to home ownership), but that the youngsters are trending right, possibly as a rebellion.
The young are trending right because young white men can see they are at the back of the queue for everything, behind every single minority, and all women; young white women are trending right because the city streets are becoming less safe for them, as we import people from more violent and/or patriarchal cultures, getting hissed at for wearing short skirts, etc
Go look at interviews with young French Le Pen supporters, if you need evidence
There's something about talking too much about identity that reinforces it. And not always in the way that you'd perhaps like.
But, I don't think young women are trending right - for now, they are very liberal/woke and that possibly increases the more men go the other way.
This is the numbers I've seen. Young men in many countries are demonstrating a right-wing backlash (or at least counter-movement) to the previous trend of young people becoming much more left/liberal than their parents (far more so than typical generational gaps). Young women mostly aren't. Whether young men are acting as they are because of how young women act, or how other parts of society are acting, or a combination of both, is hard to say for sure. But I think some of it is a direct backlash to feeling 'reverse victimised' by gender politics in their generation.
(Not saying I agree or disagree with them, btw. This is just my observations.)
The irony is that I don't think (outside a few examples of ultra-liberal organisations) that men are discrimated against. I still see women with confidence issues not putting themselves forward, being more shy in meetings and missing out because they can't travel and network as much.
However, men do have to go along with the idea that they are privileged and have all the cards/advantages, etc, and are latent sex creeps, which pisses them off. Particularly when they do work hard to get on and are professional.
A lot of good would be done by just modelling and rewarding good behaviours in organisations and shutting up about all the rest.
I think there's a big problem in the way this is framed in a negative way, rather than in a positive way. So there's a lot of justifiable criticism of men, but not so much in the way of a positive alternative for them to follow.
Having men feel guilty for existing doesn't do anyone much good. You need to provide a carrot to reward good behaviour, and then reserve the warranted negativity for specific transgressions.
The maddening thing at the moment is that there's a general anti-men vibe, but the chances of specific men who commit rape, or acts of domestic violence, etc, being held to account are low.
The footnotes at the end. Davey publicly defended the barrister being accused of dodginess when allegations were made. I agree with the footnotes: It's not clear why he felt any loyalty given the situation. There's no reason to believe he was involved or profiting from the 'avoidance' scheme, it was probably naivete and a reflexive defensiveness which comes from being in politics and getting used to bad faith attacks as a matter of course.
And the thing is Robert Venables was infamous for given favourable opinions on dodgy tax avoidance schemes.
I used to joke elsewhere that his opinion related to the lunch he was given rather than the scheme it supposedly was connected to because even I could see through the scheme in 30 seconds.
You also have to remember that because Ed Davey was working with these people there will be people who signed up for the scheme because an MP was "championing their work"
After his rain-soaked launch, Rishi Sunak has so far today: - asked Welsh workers if they're looking forward to 'all the football' [not realising Wales not in Euro2024] - had 2 Tory cllrs cosplaying as members of public to ask him Qs
It's only Day 2.
Football doesn't seem to be such a big part of football as it used to be, does it? In the 90s and noughties, the football team the PM supported was an important fact that everyone had to know. There may have been an Only Connect round on it - Chelsea, Newcastle United, Raith Rovers, Aston Villa. But who did TMay suuport? Boris? Rishi? I couldn't say.
Which is probably healthy, really. Nothing* intrinsically wrong with football, but it strikes me as daft that our favourite football teams should be an important factor about us. (I couldn't say what any PM's favourite county cricket team or rugby team is, with the exception of Major at Surrey, and nor would I expect to be able to.)
*Actually lots, but let's not go into that now.
Sunak supports Southampton.
I wonder if he will be at the playoff final this weekend.
Leeds lads will give him a warm welcome
I coach a local U7 team; we have a couple of lads in Leeds Academy too. One of them, just getting started last year, used to bawl his eyes out lying on the floor whenever he was on the losing team - first time it happened I thought he'd got some kind of bad injury that I'd missed! As his mum put it (last season), "he's a Leeds Utd fan, he'll have to learn how to cope with losing!"
Good to see them back in the mix for top flight next year.
LEEDS LEEDS LEEDS!!!
Not that I'm particularly a fan of football, but it would be nice for them to go back up. I was touched by how happy my mate was to have got a ticket for the final.
You might know this - for the second leg against Norwich at Elland Road they put a scarf on each home fan's seat - apparently it was an amazing site to see them all held aloft.
Yes I'd rather Sheff Wed but Leeds back in the top flight would be good to see.
One of my favourite things about football (let's give the sport some credit for a change) has been its, on the whole, stubborn refusal to go in for the Americanisation of team names. You don't make the game any more exciting or get any more supporters for changing the name for Hull City to Hull Tigers (a proposal which was happily kicked firmly into the long grass) nor Bradford Northern to Bradford Bulls. It is marketing, change for change's sake, and I am suspicious of both, so well done to football for keeping this sort of thing to an absolute minimum. (I still lament slightly every time I hear the name Leicester City that they saw fit to change from the singular and excellent Leicester Fosse.) But even in this stolidly conservative field, Sheffield Wednesday is worth celebrating. It does not claim to be a wild animal, nor celebrate the virtues of togetherness, nor imply any sort of sporting ability, nor commemorate any martial connection, nor even note civic status. It doesn't even point to an obscure bit of geography. It simply celebrates a day of the week. Arguably the most boring day of the week. A name to baffle Americans, and who could not get behind that? (Obviously it would be even better with their previous name of 'The Wednesday', as if Wednesday could ever meaningfully have a definite article. But still.)
A great name for a great old club. My dad used to take me to home games. We saw Wednesday play (and lose to) the famous Matt Busby Man U and "Bestie" scored two and made one. Now, due to living so long in London, and mainly North London, I support Arsenal. I still have a soft spot for The Owls but it's nothing like it was. I don't even always remember to look for their result at the weekend. That's loss of roots and identity in a nutshell right there. Arsenal ffs.
First poll post call is out MORE IN COMMON Lab 44(+1) Con 27 (-) Ref 10 (-1) Ld 9 (-) Green 5 (-1 ) SnP 3
Might take a day or so for people to catch up to the news and for it to show up in polls.
This poll was done after the announcement happened so is hot off the press . MiC are one of the companies that try to squeeze the DKs with a forced choice, so do have a different methodology that tends to favour the Tories more by building in swingback.
After his rain-soaked launch, Rishi Sunak has so far today: - asked Welsh workers if they're looking forward to 'all the football' [not realising Wales not in Euro2024] - had 2 Tory cllrs cosplaying as members of public to ask him Qs
It's only Day 2.
Football doesn't seem to be such a big part of football as it used to be, does it? In the 90s and noughties, the football team the PM supported was an important fact that everyone had to know. There may have been an Only Connect round on it - Chelsea, Newcastle United, Raith Rovers, Aston Villa. But who did TMay suuport? Boris? Rishi? I couldn't say.
Which is probably healthy, really. Nothing* intrinsically wrong with football, but it strikes me as daft that our favourite football teams should be an important factor about us. (I couldn't say what any PM's favourite county cricket team or rugby team is, with the exception of Major at Surrey, and nor would I expect to be able to.)
*Actually lots, but let's not go into that now.
Sunak supports Southampton.
I wonder if he will be at the playoff final this weekend.
Leeds lads will give him a warm welcome
I coach a local U7 team; we have a couple of lads in Leeds Academy too. One of them, just getting started last year, used to bawl his eyes out lying on the floor whenever he was on the losing team - first time it happened I thought he'd got some kind of bad injury that I'd missed! As his mum put it (last season), "he's a Leeds Utd fan, he'll have to learn how to cope with losing!"
Good to see them back in the mix for top flight next year.
LEEDS LEEDS LEEDS!!!
Not that I'm particularly a fan of football, but it would be nice for them to go back up. I was touched by how happy my mate was to have got a ticket for the final.
You might know this - for the second leg against Norwich at Elland Road they put a scarf on each home fan's seat - apparently it was an amazing site to see them all held aloft.
Yes I'd rather Sheff Wed but Leeds back in the top flight would be good to see.
One of my favourite things about football (let's give the sport some credit for a change) has been its, on the whole, stubborn refusal to go in for the Americanisation of team names. You don't make the game any more exciting or get any more supporters for changing the name for Hull City to Hull Tigers (a proposal which was happily kicked firmly into the long grass) nor Bradford Northern to Bradford Bulls. It is marketing, change for change's sake, and I am suspicious of both, so well done to football for keeping this sort of thing to an absolute minimum. (I still lament slightly every time I hear the name Leicester City that they saw fit to change from the singular and excellent Leicester Fosse.) But even in this stolidly conservative field, Sheffield Wednesday is worth celebrating. It does not claim to be a wild animal, nor celebrate the virtues of togetherness, nor imply any sort of sporting ability, nor commemorate any martial connection, nor even note civic status. It doesn't even point to an obscure bit of geography. It simply celebrates a day of the week. Arguably the most boring day of the week. A name to baffle Americans, and who could not get behind that? (Obviously it would be even better with their previous name of 'The Wednesday', as if Wednesday could ever meaningfully have a definite article. But still.)
Leicester Fosse (named for Fosse Way where the original ground was) became Leicester City in 1920 when Leicester became officially a City. There was a proposal by the Thai owners a decade or so ago to change it back, but it didn't happen. Our black away strip with the turquoise diagonal sash is an update of the original Leicester Fosse strip.
I don't know how I feel about this. While I lament the original name change, is 100 years a long enough time that I would consider the changing of the name back change for change's sake? Or is it an overdue return to the 'right' name? What's the view in Leicester?
My team - Stockport County - has its surname for the town's status as a county borough, a status which has had no currency for the past 50 years. I'm obscurely pleased with this.
After his rain-soaked launch, Rishi Sunak has so far today: - asked Welsh workers if they're looking forward to 'all the football' [not realising Wales not in Euro2024] - had 2 Tory cllrs cosplaying as members of public to ask him Qs
It's only Day 2.
Football doesn't seem to be such a big part of football as it used to be, does it? In the 90s and noughties, the football team the PM supported was an important fact that everyone had to know. There may have been an Only Connect round on it - Chelsea, Newcastle United, Raith Rovers, Aston Villa. But who did TMay suuport? Boris? Rishi? I couldn't say.
Which is probably healthy, really. Nothing* intrinsically wrong with football, but it strikes me as daft that our favourite football teams should be an important factor about us. (I couldn't say what any PM's favourite county cricket team or rugby team is, with the exception of Major at Surrey, and nor would I expect to be able to.)
*Actually lots, but let's not go into that now.
Sunak supports Southampton.
I wonder if he will be at the playoff final this weekend.
Leeds lads will give him a warm welcome
I coach a local U7 team; we have a couple of lads in Leeds Academy too. One of them, just getting started last year, used to bawl his eyes out lying on the floor whenever he was on the losing team - first time it happened I thought he'd got some kind of bad injury that I'd missed! As his mum put it (last season), "he's a Leeds Utd fan, he'll have to learn how to cope with losing!"
Good to see them back in the mix for top flight next year.
LEEDS LEEDS LEEDS!!!
Not that I'm particularly a fan of football, but it would be nice for them to go back up. I was touched by how happy my mate was to have got a ticket for the final.
You might know this - for the second leg against Norwich at Elland Road they put a scarf on each home fan's seat - apparently it was an amazing site to see them all held aloft.
Yes I'd rather Sheff Wed but Leeds back in the top flight would be good to see.
One of my favourite things about football (let's give the sport some credit for a change) has been its, on the whole, stubborn refusal to go in for the Americanisation of team names. You don't make the game any more exciting or get any more supporters for changing the name for Hull City to Hull Tigers (a proposal which was happily kicked firmly into the long grass) nor Bradford Northern to Bradford Bulls. It is marketing, change for change's sake, and I am suspicious of both, so well done to football for keeping this sort of thing to an absolute minimum. (I still lament slightly every time I hear the name Leicester City that they saw fit to change from the singular and excellent Leicester Fosse.) But even in this stolidly conservative field, Sheffield Wednesday is worth celebrating. It does not claim to be a wild animal, nor celebrate the virtues of togetherness, nor imply any sort of sporting ability, nor commemorate any martial connection, nor even note civic status. It doesn't even point to an obscure bit of geography. It simply celebrates a day of the week. Arguably the most boring day of the week. A name to baffle Americans, and who could not get behind that? (Obviously it would be even better with their previous name of 'The Wednesday', as if Wednesday could ever meaningfully have a definite article. But still.)
Leicester Fosse (named for Fosse Way where the original ground was) became Leicester City in 1920 when Leicester became officially a City. There was a proposal by the Thai owners a decade or so ago to change it back, but it didn't happen. Our black away strip with the turquoise diagonal sash is an update of the original Leicester Fosse strip.
I don't know how I feel about this. While I lament the original name change, is 100 years a long enough time that I would consider the changing of the name back change for change's sake? Or is it an overdue return to the 'right' name? What's the view in Leicester?
My team - Stockport County - has its surname for the town's status as a county borough, a status which has had no currency for the past 50 years. I'm obscurely pleased with this.
Fans preferred to stick with Leicester City.
Fosse means ditch btw. Fosse Way is a Roman road, perhaps originally a defensive ditch from Exeter to Lincoln.
After his rain-soaked launch, Rishi Sunak has so far today: - asked Welsh workers if they're looking forward to 'all the football' [not realising Wales not in Euro2024] - had 2 Tory cllrs cosplaying as members of public to ask him Qs
It's only Day 2.
Football doesn't seem to be such a big part of football as it used to be, does it? In the 90s and noughties, the football team the PM supported was an important fact that everyone had to know. There may have been an Only Connect round on it - Chelsea, Newcastle United, Raith Rovers, Aston Villa. But who did TMay suuport? Boris? Rishi? I couldn't say.
Which is probably healthy, really. Nothing* intrinsically wrong with football, but it strikes me as daft that our favourite football teams should be an important factor about us. (I couldn't say what any PM's favourite county cricket team or rugby team is, with the exception of Major at Surrey, and nor would I expect to be able to.)
*Actually lots, but let's not go into that now.
Sunak supports Southampton.
I wonder if he will be at the playoff final this weekend.
Leeds lads will give him a warm welcome
I coach a local U7 team; we have a couple of lads in Leeds Academy too. One of them, just getting started last year, used to bawl his eyes out lying on the floor whenever he was on the losing team - first time it happened I thought he'd got some kind of bad injury that I'd missed! As his mum put it (last season), "he's a Leeds Utd fan, he'll have to learn how to cope with losing!"
Good to see them back in the mix for top flight next year.
LEEDS LEEDS LEEDS!!!
Not that I'm particularly a fan of football, but it would be nice for them to go back up. I was touched by how happy my mate was to have got a ticket for the final.
You might know this - for the second leg against Norwich at Elland Road they put a scarf on each home fan's seat - apparently it was an amazing site to see them all held aloft.
Yes I'd rather Sheff Wed but Leeds back in the top flight would be good to see.
One of my favourite things about football (let's give the sport some credit for a change) has been its, on the whole, stubborn refusal to go in for the Americanisation of team names. You don't make the game any more exciting or get any more supporters for changing the name for Hull City to Hull Tigers (a proposal which was happily kicked firmly into the long grass) nor Bradford Northern to Bradford Bulls. It is marketing, change for change's sake, and I am suspicious of both, so well done to football for keeping this sort of thing to an absolute minimum. (I still lament slightly every time I hear the name Leicester City that they saw fit to change from the singular and excellent Leicester Fosse.) But even in this stolidly conservative field, Sheffield Wednesday is worth celebrating. It does not claim to be a wild animal, nor celebrate the virtues of togetherness, nor imply any sort of sporting ability, nor commemorate any martial connection, nor even note civic status. It doesn't even point to an obscure bit of geography. It simply celebrates a day of the week. Arguably the most boring day of the week. A name to baffle Americans, and who could not get behind that? (Obviously it would be even better with their previous name of 'The Wednesday', as if Wednesday could ever meaningfully have a definite article. But still.)
A great name for a great old club. My dad used to take me to home games. We saw Wednesday play (and lose to) the famous Matt Busby Man U and "Bestie" scored two and made one. Now, due to living so long in London, and mainly North London, I support Arsenal. I still have a soft spot for The Owls but it's nothing like it was. I don't even always remember to look for their result at the weekend. That's loss of roots and identity in a nutshell right there. Arsenal ffs.
My London friend and I had a wander around the old dockyard and arsenal at Woolwich a few years ago, as the Artillery Museum was beginning to pack up and be evicted for the benefit of property development. An unexpected treat was the original workshop where the staff set up Arsenal FC - a pleasant bar for a lunch break.
More in common also find a plus 4 or 5 move in approval for both leaders and parties since January but with Starmer and Labour going from just negative to just positive
First poll post call is out MORE IN COMMON Lab 44(+1) Con 27 (-) Ref 10 (-1) Ld 9 (-) Green 5 (-1 ) SnP 3
Might take a day or so for people to catch up to the news and for it to show up in polls.
This poll was done after the announcement happened so is hot off the press . MiC are one of the companies that try to squeeze the DKs with a forced choice, so do have a different methodology that tends to favour the Tories more by building in swingback.
After his rain-soaked launch, Rishi Sunak has so far today: - asked Welsh workers if they're looking forward to 'all the football' [not realising Wales not in Euro2024] - had 2 Tory cllrs cosplaying as members of public to ask him Qs
It's only Day 2.
Football doesn't seem to be such a big part of football as it used to be, does it? In the 90s and noughties, the football team the PM supported was an important fact that everyone had to know. There may have been an Only Connect round on it - Chelsea, Newcastle United, Raith Rovers, Aston Villa. But who did TMay suuport? Boris? Rishi? I couldn't say.
Which is probably healthy, really. Nothing* intrinsically wrong with football, but it strikes me as daft that our favourite football teams should be an important factor about us. (I couldn't say what any PM's favourite county cricket team or rugby team is, with the exception of Major at Surrey, and nor would I expect to be able to.)
*Actually lots, but let's not go into that now.
Sunak supports Southampton.
I wonder if he will be at the playoff final this weekend.
Leeds lads will give him a warm welcome
I coach a local U7 team; we have a couple of lads in Leeds Academy too. One of them, just getting started last year, used to bawl his eyes out lying on the floor whenever he was on the losing team - first time it happened I thought he'd got some kind of bad injury that I'd missed! As his mum put it (last season), "he's a Leeds Utd fan, he'll have to learn how to cope with losing!"
Good to see them back in the mix for top flight next year.
LEEDS LEEDS LEEDS!!!
Not that I'm particularly a fan of football, but it would be nice for them to go back up. I was touched by how happy my mate was to have got a ticket for the final.
You might know this - for the second leg against Norwich at Elland Road they put a scarf on each home fan's seat - apparently it was an amazing site to see them all held aloft.
Yes I'd rather Sheff Wed but Leeds back in the top flight would be good to see.
One of my favourite things about football (let's give the sport some credit for a change) has been its, on the whole, stubborn refusal to go in for the Americanisation of team names. You don't make the game any more exciting or get any more supporters for changing the name for Hull City to Hull Tigers (a proposal which was happily kicked firmly into the long grass) nor Bradford Northern to Bradford Bulls. It is marketing, change for change's sake, and I am suspicious of both, so well done to football for keeping this sort of thing to an absolute minimum. (I still lament slightly every time I hear the name Leicester City that they saw fit to change from the singular and excellent Leicester Fosse.) But even in this stolidly conservative field, Sheffield Wednesday is worth celebrating. It does not claim to be a wild animal, nor celebrate the virtues of togetherness, nor imply any sort of sporting ability, nor commemorate any martial connection, nor even note civic status. It doesn't even point to an obscure bit of geography. It simply celebrates a day of the week. Arguably the most boring day of the week. A name to baffle Americans, and who could not get behind that? (Obviously it would be even better with their previous name of 'The Wednesday', as if Wednesday could ever meaningfully have a definite article. But still.)
A great name for a great old club. My dad used to take me to home games. We saw Wednesday play (and lose to) the famous Matt Busby Man U and "Bestie" scored two and made one. Now, due to living so long in London, and mainly North London, I support Arsenal. I still have a soft spot for The Owls but it's nothing like it was. I don't even always remember to look for their result at the weekend. That's loss of roots and identity in a nutshell right there. Arsenal ffs.
My London friend and I had a wander around the old dockyard and arsenal at Woolwich a few years ago, as the Artillery Museum was beginning to pack up and be evicted for the benefit of property development. An unexpected treat was the original workshop where the staff set up Arsenal FC - a pleasant bar for a lunch break.
Most Arsenal fans are unaware that their first silverware was the Kent Senior Cup.
Lucas on BBC. Amazingly, talking about environmental issues.
I thought she was in the Green Party - what about Trans and Gaza?
Well your Party
Has binned the New Green Deal in favour of austerity (same as the Blue Tories)
Support Zionism without question and cheerleads Genocide in Gaza (like the blue Tories)
Is all over the place on Trans rights (depends on what is considered most popular)
Enjoy voting for the Party with Zero principles and rotating policies
I thought you supported Galloway's bunch now? I lose track.
Well you aren't paying much attention.
I have been a member of the Green Party since 2022 and will be voting for them.
In Rochdale GG was the best option for defeating the GAZA Genocide cheerleaders and the Greens withdrew support for their own Candidate due to Islamophobic tweets.
Anyway what are you most looking forward to under PM SKS and austerity Reeves
More NHS privatisation? Austerity on stilts? Zionism without qualification? Not Nationalising water? Increasing funding for wars? Weekly U Turns on Policy?
What sort of qualification do you need for Zionism? Would an A'level be enough, or do you need a degree in it?
Think you just need to expel the wrong kind of Jews and you qualify
What are the right kind of Jews you want to expel?
First poll post call is out MORE IN COMMON Lab 44(+1) Con 27 (-) Ref 10 (-1) Ld 9 (-) Green 5 (-1 ) SnP 3
Might take a day or so for people to catch up to the news and for it to show up in polls.
This poll was done after the announcement happened so is hot off the press . MiC are one of the companies that try to squeeze the DKs with a forced choice, so do have a different methodology that tends to favour the Tories more by building in swingback.
Just because a poll is conducted after an event doesn’t mean that everyone has heard about it or fully processed the information. So whilst yes this is the first post announcement poll it doesn’t mean that because nothing has yet changed that nothing will.
First poll post call is out MORE IN COMMON Lab 44(+1) Con 27 (-) Ref 10 (-1) Ld 9 (-) Green 5 (-1 ) SnP 3
Might take a day or so for people to catch up to the news and for it to show up in polls.
This poll was done after the announcement happened so is hot off the press . MiC are one of the companies that try to squeeze the DKs with a forced choice, so do have a different methodology that tends to favour the Tories more by building in swingback.
Just because a poll is conducted after an event doesn’t mean that everyone has heard about it or fully processed the information. So whilst yes this is the first post announcement poll it doesn’t mean that because nothing has yet changed that nothing will.
I agree often news takes a week or so to filter through to the polls.
Rishi gives SKS a 25 point start as he fires the gun (according to YG)
BAXTERED, that gives Labour 527 seats with Tories and Libs scrapping it out on 44 each. I reckon all parties will be happy with that. Starmer gets a decent majority of over 400, and the Tories retain a solid base, meaning they can expect to be back in power in the first decade of the 22nd century
If we do get any debates, do you think we get Ed thingy and Tice, or just the boreathon of Sunak vs Starmer?
I hope we get none tbh but given there’s only two people likely to be PM after the election it should be limited to Sunak and Starmer.
On that basis, surely it should just be Starmer having to argue against himself?
Haha but seriously Sunak vs Starmer is the choice at the election. Everyone else is sailing in the wake of that clash, nobody expects the election to be in doubt or close so why include characters that aren’t going to impinge on the public consciousness the moment the polls close.
I really can see the Tories doing worse than 1997 in terms of vote share. I'm surprised so many are convinced they will make it to 30%. They only managed 30.7% in 1997, and I think the electorate is more volatile than then, and the debacle of Truss has to be worse than anything that happened under Major.
What might save many Tory seats is a fragmentation of the anti-Tory vote. Labour under Starmer and the Lib Dems under Davey will, I think, struggle to match the 43.2% and 16.8% their parties managed in 1997.
So there will be plenty more votes for the Greens, Reform and the SNP. The Greens received under 62,000 votes in 1997.
First poll post call is out MORE IN COMMON Lab 44(+1) Con 27 (-) Ref 10 (-1) Ld 9 (-) Green 5 (-1 ) SnP 3
Might take a day or so for people to catch up to the news and for it to show up in polls.
This poll was done after the announcement happened so is hot off the press . MiC are one of the companies that try to squeeze the DKs with a forced choice, so do have a different methodology that tends to favour the Tories more by building in swingback.
I see the point but that does mean there will be people saying tory when in reality they won't get out and vote on the day..
When MiC introduced this last year they found it put Con VI up by just under 1% and Lab down by 1.5%, their process is DKs that responded 7-10 likely to vote are asked again with a list of parties but DK is also offered again as a choice and they are discounted if still DK.
Opinium weight up Con to account for their increased DKs
After his rain-soaked launch, Rishi Sunak has so far today: - asked Welsh workers if they're looking forward to 'all the football' [not realising Wales not in Euro2024] - had 2 Tory cllrs cosplaying as members of public to ask him Qs
It's only Day 2.
Football doesn't seem to be such a big part of football as it used to be, does it? In the 90s and noughties, the football team the PM supported was an important fact that everyone had to know. There may have been an Only Connect round on it - Chelsea, Newcastle United, Raith Rovers, Aston Villa. But who did TMay suuport? Boris? Rishi? I couldn't say.
Which is probably healthy, really. Nothing* intrinsically wrong with football, but it strikes me as daft that our favourite football teams should be an important factor about us. (I couldn't say what any PM's favourite county cricket team or rugby team is, with the exception of Major at Surrey, and nor would I expect to be able to.)
*Actually lots, but let's not go into that now.
Sunak supports Southampton.
I wonder if he will be at the playoff final this weekend.
Leeds lads will give him a warm welcome
I coach a local U7 team; we have a couple of lads in Leeds Academy too. One of them, just getting started last year, used to bawl his eyes out lying on the floor whenever he was on the losing team - first time it happened I thought he'd got some kind of bad injury that I'd missed! As his mum put it (last season), "he's a Leeds Utd fan, he'll have to learn how to cope with losing!"
Good to see them back in the mix for top flight next year.
LEEDS LEEDS LEEDS!!!
Not that I'm particularly a fan of football, but it would be nice for them to go back up. I was touched by how happy my mate was to have got a ticket for the final.
You might know this - for the second leg against Norwich at Elland Road they put a scarf on each home fan's seat - apparently it was an amazing site to see them all held aloft.
Yes I'd rather Sheff Wed but Leeds back in the top flight would be good to see.
One of my favourite things about football (let's give the sport some credit for a change) has been its, on the whole, stubborn refusal to go in for the Americanisation of team names. You don't make the game any more exciting or get any more supporters for changing the name for Hull City to Hull Tigers (a proposal which was happily kicked firmly into the long grass) nor Bradford Northern to Bradford Bulls. It is marketing, change for change's sake, and I am suspicious of both, so well done to football for keeping this sort of thing to an absolute minimum. (I still lament slightly every time I hear the name Leicester City that they saw fit to change from the singular and excellent Leicester Fosse.) But even in this stolidly conservative field, Sheffield Wednesday is worth celebrating. It does not claim to be a wild animal, nor celebrate the virtues of togetherness, nor imply any sort of sporting ability, nor commemorate any martial connection, nor even note civic status. It doesn't even point to an obscure bit of geography. It simply celebrates a day of the week. Arguably the most boring day of the week. A name to baffle Americans, and who could not get behind that? (Obviously it would be even better with their previous name of 'The Wednesday', as if Wednesday could ever meaningfully have a definite article. But still.)
A great name for a great old club. My dad used to take me to home games. We saw Wednesday play (and lose to) the famous Matt Busby Man U and "Bestie" scored two and made one. Now, due to living so long in London, and mainly North London, I support Arsenal. I still have a soft spot for The Owls but it's nothing like it was. I don't even always remember to look for their result at the weekend. That's loss of roots and identity in a nutshell right there. Arsenal ffs.
The first ever football match I went to was Wednesday, so while I'm not a fan I do have a soft spot for them too.
My club as a kid was Forest, who I still very much look out for but like Cookie I am really a Stockport County fan these days; I've adopted them since moving here and am proud that I can say my son's first football match was County v Chorley in the National League North. Heady heights of League One next season but nobody can accuse him of being a fairweather fan.
"Watching her today made me realize what a cruel place we live in. I don't believe she deliberately set about trying to ruin the lives of innocent people but somehow we can't free ourselves from the ghoulish delight of public humiliation. Watching Alex Thompson of Ch4 News lifting her umbrella as she tried to leave the court so he could bully her further was almost unwatchable."
Roger being on the wrong side of a very clear moral question once again. Vennells is a scumbag who deserves to be scorned and humiliated for what she did. She might not have set out to deliberately ruin lives but she certainly made a point of deliberately igoring the fact they were being ruined and of putting the reputation of her sordid little company above the lives and wellbeing of those who worked for her.
Maybe Thompson should not have lifted the umbrella but Vennells deserves no hiding place for what she did. The best place for her to be if she dislikes being in the glare of public censure is inside a prison cell.
I really can see the Tories doing worse than 1997 in terms of vote share. I'm surprised so many are convinced they will make it to 30%. They only managed 30.7% in 1997, and I think the electorate is more volatile than then, and the debacle of Truss has to be worse than anything that happened under Major.
What might save many Tory seats is a fragmentation of the anti-Tory vote. Labour under Starmer and the Lib Dems under Davey will, I think, struggle to match the 43.2% and 16.8% their parties managed in 1997.
So there will be plenty more votes for the Greens, Reform and the SNP. The Greens received under 62,000 votes in 1997.
It depends on whether the 25 to 27 group or the low 20s group are closer to the truth as we stand. If the former I can see 30 or 31% as lesser parties like RefUK fade, if the former they might be grasping for 25, 26% and a horror show
If we do get any debates, do you think we get Ed thingy and Tice, or just the boreathon of Sunak vs Starmer?
I hope we get none tbh but given there’s only two people likely to be PM after the election it should be limited to Sunak and Starmer.
On that basis, surely it should just be Starmer having to argue against himself?
Haha but seriously Sunak vs Starmer is the choice at the election. Everyone else is sailing in the wake of that clash, nobody expects the election to be in doubt or close so why include characters that aren’t going to impinge on the public consciousness the moment the polls close.
Looking at the Bf markets, a Tory majority is a 2.5% chance, whereas a hung parliament is a 12% chance. In most hung parliament scenarios, the LDs and the various nationalists groups will have more input into policy than the Tories.
It is not particularly clear on a probability basis that Sunak will be more influential post election than the leaders of the LDs or SNPs. It is also quite conceivable from here that those leaders may be the official leader of the opposition.
HOW have the Tories so COMPLETELY lost control of immigration???
Reasons are as follows
I) Our current ruling classes have no tie to the physical United Kingdom, either living in other countries (Andrew Neil, Stanley Johnson, David Miliband, Nick Clegg) or wanting to (Rishi Sunak). It does not matter to them in the UK is shit
II) Enshittification. Having taken on large debt from foreign powers, the UK has to be forced to grow to service that debt
III) Distance of the political class from the working class, as previously discussed
IV) Cargo-cult management of abstractions. By becoming reliant on indicators on a screen they attempt to tune the economy to those indicators, whilst neglecting the things that really matter to people.
V) other stuff I forgot
So they don't know how to run an economy, consider their clients to be foreigners not the locals, don't know the locals enough to assess anyway, and will fuck off when it becomes too difficult.
I could throw this into a PowerPoint if you'd like.
Our governing class is of poor quality, for sure. As @Gardenwalker points out, they seem not to like this country very much.
There is something pretty rotten - we know - in the state of the Conservatives' candidate list, but I suspect the same is true of Labour and Lib Dems.
I wonder how many Jared O'Mara's we will end up with given both main parties have well over 100 candidates to find in a fortnight or so.
Also how many SPAD's and pals of the leader get parachuted into safe seats.
Given the turnover we get at elections and how many MPs there are I guess technically we are fortunate not to get more O'Maras.
I think they've all become US citizens and stood for Congress.
Been out all day and NO not canvassing I don’t do party political activism.
Anyway, the More in Common poll is fun. Considering they are the pollster most favourable to the tories it’s a pretty dreadful start for them.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves (memo: myself). Need to see a raft of other initial pollsters and then there are 6 weeks to go.
But this all become less hypothetical now. It’s not ‘how would you vote if there were …’. It’s c. ‘How do you intend to vote at the General Election on July 4th.’
Sadly for the Conservatives I think there will be little movement. But let’s wait and see.
Rishi gives SKS a 25 point start as he fires the gun (according to YG)
YouGov overstated Labour in the London Mayoral election by around 10%...
Yes but I suspect a mayoral election is more difficult to poll as it’s slightly more personality driven. I suspect any overstatement at a national level will be half or less than in the mayoral.
First poll post call is out MORE IN COMMON Lab 44(+1) Con 27 (-) Ref 10 (-1) Ld 9 (-) Green 5 (-1 ) SnP 3
Might take a day or so for people to catch up to the news and for it to show up in polls.
Weekend polls will be the first snapshot of public reaction. Got my popcorn ready for Saturday night
Meanwhile it’s been a slow start, as the parties frantically copyedit their manifestos, with the most lively debate of the day on PB having been when exactly is the middle of the year.
"Watching her today made me realize what a cruel place we live in. I don't believe she deliberately set about trying to ruin the lives of innocent people but somehow we can't free ourselves from the ghoulish delight of public humiliation. Watching Alex Thompson of Ch4 News lifting her umbrella as she tried to leave the court so he could bully her further was almost unwatchable."
Roger being on the wrong side of a very clear moral question once again. Vennells is a scumbag who deserves to be scorned and humiliated for what she did. She might not have set out to deliberately ruin lives but she certainly made a point of deliberately igoring the fact they were being ruined and of putting the reputation of her sordid little company above the lives and wellbeing of those who worked for her.
Maybe Thompson should not have lifted the umbrella but Vennells deserves no hiding place for what she did. The best place for her to be if she dislikes being in the glare of public censure is inside a prison cell.
Yes, I thought the view of Vennells as a victim of bullying to be an odd one!
SKS Keir confirms Labour will not scrap the 2-child benefit cap
A ‘no’ to lifting 250k children out of poverty
SKS shocks us with the news his Dad was a Toolmaker (never a truer word) and his mother a nurse (i am sure she would be proud of SKS taking donations from private health lobbyists and the consequent expansion of NHS private sector involvement policy)
Why does the ownership model of the NHS matter so much to you? Surely the quality of healthcare delivered is the more important measure? On which basis, the UK, with its singular system, is middling. Nationalised healthcare has its virtues - chiefly value for money, I think - but it would be hard to claim that our model has given us any particular advantage which changing it threatens to erode.
At the least it should not be seen as nearly heresy to contemplate it.
Rishi gives SKS a 25 point start as he fires the gun (according to YG)
Hmmm.
This is going to be a fascinating election, because right now the polls just feel off to me. I dont doubt that Labour are ahead by enough to get a decent working majority, and the Tories are in a very bad place.
BUT:
I am just not sure I can conceive of a situation where we will have a 25 point gap when push comes to shove. I simply can’t. 10 - most probably. 15? Yes, definitely a possibility. But that gap? I simply cannot see it.
But again - it would be a significantly bad polling failure to underestimate the Tory vote so severely.
"Watching her today made me realize what a cruel place we live in. I don't believe she deliberately set about trying to ruin the lives of innocent people but somehow we can't free ourselves from the ghoulish delight of public humiliation. Watching Alex Thompson of Ch4 News lifting her umbrella as she tried to leave the court so he could bully her further was almost unwatchable."
Almost as good as the one about the miserable mood at a favourite hotel - after a number of Very Good People had had their yachts confiscated for involvement in the Ukraine war.
I really can see the Tories doing worse than 1997 in terms of vote share. I'm surprised so many are convinced they will make it to 30%. They only managed 30.7% in 1997, and I think the electorate is more volatile than then, and the debacle of Truss has to be worse than anything that happened under Major.
What might save many Tory seats is a fragmentation of the anti-Tory vote. Labour under Starmer and the Lib Dems under Davey will, I think, struggle to match the 43.2% and 16.8% their parties managed in 1997.
So there will be plenty more votes for the Greens, Reform and the SNP. The Greens received under 62,000 votes in 1997.
Yes, I think if they scraped over the vite share bar they set in 1997 from here it would be an unex0ected triumph.
Been out all day and NO not canvassing I don’t do party political activism.
Anyway, the More in Common poll is fun. Considering they are the pollster most favourable to the tories it’s a pretty dreadful start for them.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves (memo: myself). Need to see a raft of other initial pollsters and then there are 6 weeks to go.
But this all become less hypothetical now. It’s not ‘how would you vote if there were …’. It’s c. ‘How do you intend to vote at the General Election on July 4th.’
Sadly for the Conservatives I think there will be little movement. But let’s wait and see.
They are not the pollster 'most favourable to the Tories'
I really can see the Tories doing worse than 1997 in terms of vote share. I'm surprised so many are convinced they will make it to 30%. They only managed 30.7% in 1997, and I think the electorate is more volatile than then, and the debacle of Truss has to be worse than anything that happened under Major.
What might save many Tory seats is a fragmentation of the anti-Tory vote. Labour under Starmer and the Lib Dems under Davey will, I think, struggle to match the 43.2% and 16.8% their parties managed in 1997.
So there will be plenty more votes for the Greens, Reform and the SNP. The Greens received under 62,000 votes in 1997.
It depends on whether the 25 to 27 group or the low 20s group are closer to the truth as we stand. If the former I can see 30 or 31% as lesser parties like RefUK fade, if the former they might be grasping for 25, 26% and a horror show
Maybe. But I think it's interesting that if you look at the polling before the 1997 general election, the polling that we all know was inaccurate and gave Labour way too high scores, that polling gave the Tories scores of 33 or 34 percent at least as often as the polls now put the Tories on 27%.
If the Tories had outperformed their best pre-campaign polls by 3pp back in 1997 then they'd have received 37% of the vote, instead of 30.7%.
30% for the Tories feels like it would be a surprisingly good result given the starting point.
First poll post call is out MORE IN COMMON Lab 44(+1) Con 27 (-) Ref 10 (-1) Ld 9 (-) Green 5 (-1 ) SnP 3
Might take a day or so for people to catch up to the news and for it to show up in polls.
This poll was done after the announcement happened so is hot off the press . MiC are one of the companies that try to squeeze the DKs with a forced choice, so do have a different methodology that tends to favour the Tories more by building in swingback.
After his rain-soaked launch, Rishi Sunak has so far today: - asked Welsh workers if they're looking forward to 'all the football' [not realising Wales not in Euro2024] - had 2 Tory cllrs cosplaying as members of public to ask him Qs
It's only Day 2.
Football doesn't seem to be such a big part of football as it used to be, does it? In the 90s and noughties, the football team the PM supported was an important fact that everyone had to know. There may have been an Only Connect round on it - Chelsea, Newcastle United, Raith Rovers, Aston Villa. But who did TMay suuport? Boris? Rishi? I couldn't say.
Which is probably healthy, really. Nothing* intrinsically wrong with football, but it strikes me as daft that our favourite football teams should be an important factor about us. (I couldn't say what any PM's favourite county cricket team or rugby team is, with the exception of Major at Surrey, and nor would I expect to be able to.)
*Actually lots, but let's not go into that now.
Sunak supports Southampton.
I wonder if he will be at the playoff final this weekend.
Leeds lads will give him a warm welcome
I coach a local U7 team; we have a couple of lads in Leeds Academy too. One of them, just getting started last year, used to bawl his eyes out lying on the floor whenever he was on the losing team - first time it happened I thought he'd got some kind of bad injury that I'd missed! As his mum put it (last season), "he's a Leeds Utd fan, he'll have to learn how to cope with losing!"
Good to see them back in the mix for top flight next year.
LEEDS LEEDS LEEDS!!!
Not that I'm particularly a fan of football, but it would be nice for them to go back up. I was touched by how happy my mate was to have got a ticket for the final.
You might know this - for the second leg against Norwich at Elland Road they put a scarf on each home fan's seat - apparently it was an amazing site to see them all held aloft.
Yes I'd rather Sheff Wed but Leeds back in the top flight would be good to see.
One of my favourite things about football (let's give the sport some credit for a change) has been its, on the whole, stubborn refusal to go in for the Americanisation of team names. You don't make the game any more exciting or get any more supporters for changing the name for Hull City to Hull Tigers (a proposal which was happily kicked firmly into the long grass) nor Bradford Northern to Bradford Bulls. It is marketing, change for change's sake, and I am suspicious of both, so well done to football for keeping this sort of thing to an absolute minimum. (I still lament slightly every time I hear the name Leicester City that they saw fit to change from the singular and excellent Leicester Fosse.) But even in this stolidly conservative field, Sheffield Wednesday is worth celebrating. It does not claim to be a wild animal, nor celebrate the virtues of togetherness, nor imply any sort of sporting ability, nor commemorate any martial connection, nor even note civic status. It doesn't even point to an obscure bit of geography. It simply celebrates a day of the week. Arguably the most boring day of the week. A name to baffle Americans, and who could not get behind that? (Obviously it would be even better with their previous name of 'The Wednesday', as if Wednesday could ever meaningfully have a definite article. But still.)
Leicester Fosse (named for Fosse Way where the original ground was) became Leicester City in 1920 when Leicester became officially a City. There was a proposal by the Thai owners a decade or so ago to change it back, but it didn't happen. Our black away strip with the turquoise diagonal sash is an update of the original Leicester Fosse strip.
I don't know how I feel about this. While I lament the original name change, is 100 years a long enough time that I would consider the changing of the name back change for change's sake? Or is it an overdue return to the 'right' name? What's the view in Leicester?
My team - Stockport County - has its surname for the town's status as a county borough, a status which has had no currency for the past 50 years. I'm obscurely pleased with this.
Fans preferred to stick with Leicester City.
Fosse means ditch btw. Fosse Way is a Roman road, perhaps originally a defensive ditch from Exeter to Lincoln.
The original team nickname was "The Fossils" !
Fans under 100 years old clearly carried the day. A young city, Leicester.
I really can see the Tories doing worse than 1997 in terms of vote share. I'm surprised so many are convinced they will make it to 30%. They only managed 30.7% in 1997, and I think the electorate is more volatile than then, and the debacle of Truss has to be worse than anything that happened under Major.
What might save many Tory seats is a fragmentation of the anti-Tory vote. Labour under Starmer and the Lib Dems under Davey will, I think, struggle to match the 43.2% and 16.8% their parties managed in 1997.
So there will be plenty more votes for the Greens, Reform and the SNP. The Greens received under 62,000 votes in 1997.
It depends on whether the 25 to 27 group or the low 20s group are closer to the truth as we stand. If the former I can see 30 or 31% as lesser parties like RefUK fade, if the former they might be grasping for 25, 26% and a horror show
Maybe. But I think it's interesting that if you look at the polling before the 1997 general election, the polling that we all know was inaccurate and gave Labour way too high scores, that polling gave the Tories scores of 33 or 34 percent at least as often as the polls now put the Tories on 27%.
If the Tories had outperformed their best pre-campaign polls by 3pp back in 1997 then they'd have received 37% of the vote, instead of 30.7%.
30% for the Tories feels like it would be a surprisingly good result given the starting point.
Well we need to see how the polling goes in the campaign first
Rishi gives SKS a 25 point start as he fires the gun (according to YG)
Hmmm.
This is going to be a fascinating election, because right now the polls just feel off to me. I dont doubt that Labour are ahead by enough to get a decent working majority, and the Tories are in a very bad place.
BUT:
I am just not sure I can conceive of a situation where we will have a 25 point gap when push comes to shove. I simply can’t. 10 - most probably. 15? Yes, definitely a possibility. But that gap? I simply cannot see it.
But again - it would be a significantly bad polling failure to underestimate the Tory vote so severely.
So I remain intrigued.
As noted upthread, YouGov overstated the Tories by about 10% in London. I think the true lead is likely more like 15%-20% more reflected in some of the other pollsters.
“Look at what Biden has done in Ukraine. He did nothing to deter the invasion. He assumed Ukraine would fall within days.
While the Ukrainians have proven to be amazing fighters, Biden refuses to help them win. He gives them just enough to survive, while Russian missiles and tanks grind their country to dust.”
She is aware that her guy isn’t even going to give them enough to survive. You can’t attack someone for doing nothing if your lot intends to do less.
Her career was done when she dared attack Trump and didn't fold immediately like DeSantis. Which makes kowtowing like this just undignified.
After his rain-soaked launch, Rishi Sunak has so far today: - asked Welsh workers if they're looking forward to 'all the football' [not realising Wales not in Euro2024] - had 2 Tory cllrs cosplaying as members of public to ask him Qs
It's only Day 2.
Football doesn't seem to be such a big part of football as it used to be, does it? In the 90s and noughties, the football team the PM supported was an important fact that everyone had to know. There may have been an Only Connect round on it - Chelsea, Newcastle United, Raith Rovers, Aston Villa. But who did TMay suuport? Boris? Rishi? I couldn't say.
Which is probably healthy, really. Nothing* intrinsically wrong with football, but it strikes me as daft that our favourite football teams should be an important factor about us. (I couldn't say what any PM's favourite county cricket team or rugby team is, with the exception of Major at Surrey, and nor would I expect to be able to.)
*Actually lots, but let's not go into that now.
Sunak supports Southampton.
I wonder if he will be at the playoff final this weekend.
Leeds lads will give him a warm welcome
I coach a local U7 team; we have a couple of lads in Leeds Academy too. One of them, just getting started last year, used to bawl his eyes out lying on the floor whenever he was on the losing team - first time it happened I thought he'd got some kind of bad injury that I'd missed! As his mum put it (last season), "he's a Leeds Utd fan, he'll have to learn how to cope with losing!"
Good to see them back in the mix for top flight next year.
LEEDS LEEDS LEEDS!!!
Not that I'm particularly a fan of football, but it would be nice for them to go back up. I was touched by how happy my mate was to have got a ticket for the final.
You might know this - for the second leg against Norwich at Elland Road they put a scarf on each home fan's seat - apparently it was an amazing site to see them all held aloft.
Yes I'd rather Sheff Wed but Leeds back in the top flight would be good to see.
One of my favourite things about football (let's give the sport some credit for a change) has been its, on the whole, stubborn refusal to go in for the Americanisation of team names. You don't make the game any more exciting or get any more supporters for changing the name for Hull City to Hull Tigers (a proposal which was happily kicked firmly into the long grass) nor Bradford Northern to Bradford Bulls. It is marketing, change for change's sake, and I am suspicious of both, so well done to football for keeping this sort of thing to an absolute minimum. (I still lament slightly every time I hear the name Leicester City that they saw fit to change from the singular and excellent Leicester Fosse.) But even in this stolidly conservative field, Sheffield Wednesday is worth celebrating. It does not claim to be a wild animal, nor celebrate the virtues of togetherness, nor imply any sort of sporting ability, nor commemorate any martial connection, nor even note civic status. It doesn't even point to an obscure bit of geography. It simply celebrates a day of the week. Arguably the most boring day of the week. A name to baffle Americans, and who could not get behind that? (Obviously it would be even better with their previous name of 'The Wednesday', as if Wednesday could ever meaningfully have a definite article. But still.)
A great name for a great old club. My dad used to take me to home games. We saw Wednesday play (and lose to) the famous Matt Busby Man U and "Bestie" scored two and made one. Now, due to living so long in London, and mainly North London, I support Arsenal. I still have a soft spot for The Owls but it's nothing like it was. I don't even always remember to look for their result at the weekend. That's loss of roots and identity in a nutshell right there. Arsenal ffs.
My London friend and I had a wander around the old dockyard and arsenal at Woolwich a few years ago, as the Artillery Museum was beginning to pack up and be evicted for the benefit of property development. An unexpected treat was the original workshop where the staff set up Arsenal FC - a pleasant bar for a lunch break.
Yes I know someone who lives in one of those flats. It's quite a nice development. A long way from the Holloway Road where the club is based now.
Interesting that Leicester East is on the list, since it's the one seat in England the Tories might win from Labour.
That's not going to happen.
The Constituency is a mess, with some intercommunal tensions that spill over to party politics. Con will do better than one might expect in other constituencies, but will still be a safe Labour hold despite the Hindutva vote. Labour have a Hindu candidate too. The local Tory party have their own internal issues, with their most prominent Councillor suspended from the party for threatening behaviour.
After his rain-soaked launch, Rishi Sunak has so far today: - asked Welsh workers if they're looking forward to 'all the football' [not realising Wales not in Euro2024] - had 2 Tory cllrs cosplaying as members of public to ask him Qs
It's only Day 2.
Football doesn't seem to be such a big part of football as it used to be, does it? In the 90s and noughties, the football team the PM supported was an important fact that everyone had to know. There may have been an Only Connect round on it - Chelsea, Newcastle United, Raith Rovers, Aston Villa. But who did TMay suuport? Boris? Rishi? I couldn't say.
Which is probably healthy, really. Nothing* intrinsically wrong with football, but it strikes me as daft that our favourite football teams should be an important factor about us. (I couldn't say what any PM's favourite county cricket team or rugby team is, with the exception of Major at Surrey, and nor would I expect to be able to.)
*Actually lots, but let's not go into that now.
Sunak supports Southampton.
I wonder if he will be at the playoff final this weekend.
Leeds lads will give him a warm welcome
I coach a local U7 team; we have a couple of lads in Leeds Academy too. One of them, just getting started last year, used to bawl his eyes out lying on the floor whenever he was on the losing team - first time it happened I thought he'd got some kind of bad injury that I'd missed! As his mum put it (last season), "he's a Leeds Utd fan, he'll have to learn how to cope with losing!"
Good to see them back in the mix for top flight next year.
LEEDS LEEDS LEEDS!!!
Not that I'm particularly a fan of football, but it would be nice for them to go back up. I was touched by how happy my mate was to have got a ticket for the final.
You might know this - for the second leg against Norwich at Elland Road they put a scarf on each home fan's seat - apparently it was an amazing site to see them all held aloft.
Yes I'd rather Sheff Wed but Leeds back in the top flight would be good to see.
One of my favourite things about football (let's give the sport some credit for a change) has been its, on the whole, stubborn refusal to go in for the Americanisation of team names. You don't make the game any more exciting or get any more supporters for changing the name for Hull City to Hull Tigers (a proposal which was happily kicked firmly into the long grass) nor Bradford Northern to Bradford Bulls. It is marketing, change for change's sake, and I am suspicious of both, so well done to football for keeping this sort of thing to an absolute minimum. (I still lament slightly every time I hear the name Leicester City that they saw fit to change from the singular and excellent Leicester Fosse.) But even in this stolidly conservative field, Sheffield Wednesday is worth celebrating. It does not claim to be a wild animal, nor celebrate the virtues of togetherness, nor imply any sort of sporting ability, nor commemorate any martial connection, nor even note civic status. It doesn't even point to an obscure bit of geography. It simply celebrates a day of the week. Arguably the most boring day of the week. A name to baffle Americans, and who could not get behind that? (Obviously it would be even better with their previous name of 'The Wednesday', as if Wednesday could ever meaningfully have a definite article. But still.)
A great name for a great old club. My dad used to take me to home games. We saw Wednesday play (and lose to) the famous Matt Busby Man U and "Bestie" scored two and made one. Now, due to living so long in London, and mainly North London, I support Arsenal. I still have a soft spot for The Owls but it's nothing like it was. I don't even always remember to look for their result at the weekend. That's loss of roots and identity in a nutshell right there. Arsenal ffs.
A lovely paragraph. A Kingsley Amis short story on the ambiguities of belinging right there.
"Watching her today made me realize what a cruel place we live in. I don't believe she deliberately set about trying to ruin the lives of innocent people but somehow we can't free ourselves from the ghoulish delight of public humiliation. Watching Alex Thompson of Ch4 News lifting her umbrella as she tried to leave the court so he could bully her further was almost unwatchable."
Roger being on the wrong side of a very clear moral question once again. Vennells is a scumbag who deserves to be scorned and humiliated for what she did. She might not have set out to deliberately ruin lives but she certainly made a point of deliberately igoring the fact they were being ruined and of putting the reputation of her sordid little company above the lives and wellbeing of those who worked for her.
Maybe Thompson should not have lifted the umbrella but Vennells deserves no hiding place for what she did. The best place for her to be if she dislikes being in the glare of public censure is inside a prison cell.
Yes, I thought the view of Vennells as a victim of bullying to be an odd one!
Like a lot of clergypeople to her the institution is all. The institution is good, must be good, and anything that suggests it is not good must be resisted.
"Watching her today made me realize what a cruel place we live in. I don't believe she deliberately set about trying to ruin the lives of innocent people but somehow we can't free ourselves from the ghoulish delight of public humiliation. Watching Alex Thompson of Ch4 News lifting her umbrella as she tried to leave the court so he could bully her further was almost unwatchable."
Roger being on the wrong side of a very clear moral question once again. Vennells is a scumbag who deserves to be scorned and humiliated for what she did. She might not have set out to deliberately ruin lives but she certainly made a point of deliberately igoring the fact they were being ruined and of putting the reputation of her sordid little company above the lives and wellbeing of those who worked for her.
Maybe Thompson should not have lifted the umbrella but Vennells deserves no hiding place for what she did. The best place for her to be if she dislikes being in the glare of public censure is inside a prison cell.
Yes, I thought the view of Vennells as a victim of bullying to be an odd one!
It's one of those things like where people regard someone being held to account to be vindictive. That reacting at all is an overreaction.
Rishi gives SKS a 25 point start as he fires the gun (according to YG)
Hmmm.
This is going to be a fascinating election, because right now the polls just feel off to me. I dont doubt that Labour are ahead by enough to get a decent working majority, and the Tories are in a very bad place.
BUT:
I am just not sure I can conceive of a situation where we will have a 25 point gap when push comes to shove. I simply can’t. 10 - most probably. 15? Yes, definitely a possibility. But that gap? I simply cannot see it.
But again - it would be a significantly bad polling failure to underestimate the Tory vote so severely.
So I remain intrigued.
Reform, even without Farage, might receive a fair number of votes as a non-Labour anti-government protest vote.
I can see Labour underperforming their worst polling more easily then I can see the Tories overperforming their best.
Rishi gives SKS a 25 point start as he fires the gun (according to YG)
Hmmm.
This is going to be a fascinating election, because right now the polls just feel off to me. I dont doubt that Labour are ahead by enough to get a decent working majority, and the Tories are in a very bad place.
BUT:
I am just not sure I can conceive of a situation where we will have a 25 point gap when push comes to shove. I simply can’t. 10 - most probably. 15? Yes, definitely a possibility. But that gap? I simply cannot see it.
But again - it would be a significantly bad polling failure to underestimate the Tory vote so severely.
So I remain intrigued.
Yes, and it's intriguing for the betting. You can sell Labour at Blair landslide levels. Meaning you win with any Labour win short of that. That feels like a professional trade to me - I'm psyching up to do it.
How likely is it that the polls narrow significantly before July 4th? Well, historically, campaigns make little to no difference. This message might not be well-received in Downing Street, but if we judge campaign impact as movement in the polls from the point of announcement to polling day, Mr. Sunak’s chips are cooked. The evidence is stark: in UK general elections since 1992, the average change in the Conservative/Labour lead during the campaign has been just under four percentage points. Reminder: he currently trails by 22 points.
Famously though, the change during the campaign has occasionally been much higher. When Theresa May called her snap election in 2017 her party was, on average, eighteen points ahead in the polls, but by the final days of the campaign her lead had shrunk by almost two thirds. The eventual results were even worse, and cost May her majority. But everyone agrees her campaign was apocalyptically bad – and 2017 should be considered a monumental outlier as far as this analysis is concerned.
So the Tories romping back to the front of this horserace based on a highly effective campaign? Not likely, and probably even less so with the generally unimpressive campaigner that the Prime Minister is seen to be at the helm.
"Watching her today made me realize what a cruel place we live in. I don't believe she deliberately set about trying to ruin the lives of innocent people but somehow we can't free ourselves from the ghoulish delight of public humiliation. Watching Alex Thompson of Ch4 News lifting her umbrella as she tried to leave the court so he could bully her further was almost unwatchable."
Roger being on the wrong side of a very clear moral question once again. Vennells is a scumbag who deserves to be scorned and humiliated for what she did. She might not have set out to deliberately ruin lives but she certainly made a point of deliberately igoring the fact they were being ruined and of putting the reputation of her sordid little company above the lives and wellbeing of those who worked for her.
Maybe Thompson should not have lifted the umbrella but Vennells deserves no hiding place for what she did. The best place for her to be if she dislikes being in the glare of public censure is inside a prison cell.
Yes, I thought the view of Vennells as a victim of bullying to be an odd one!
She is Proper Person - all the Right Views, knows The Right People.
It is invidious that such a person be held in anything less than High Regard. All that she did was to fiddle with the lives of some of The Head Count. Not Real People. NPCs, really.
Some years ago, I was at a garden party where the then Home Sec was present. Had a few words about the scandal of the day - Rotherham. A flunky to the Home Sec was appalled at my suggestion that, since the people in charge had proudly declared they had got rid of the evidence against themselves, that the Home Sec should simply put those responsible on the various registries of people who were a danger to children.
Apparently, I didn't understand how hard working and wonderful these people were.
The split among 2019 Tories is a sign of potential future trouble for them in Opposition when they have to choose between embracing Faragism, or creating something new. Though it will be easier for them without Farage himself.
Do you really think such a result is possible? (Non-sarcastic question).
I do think more people ought to be at least contemplating the possibility. It would have profound implications. Not least, that fewer than a tenth of the PLP could breakwaway and instantly become the official Opposition...
“Look at what Biden has done in Ukraine. He did nothing to deter the invasion. He assumed Ukraine would fall within days.
While the Ukrainians have proven to be amazing fighters, Biden refuses to help them win. He gives them just enough to survive, while Russian missiles and tanks grind their country to dust.”
She is aware that her guy isn’t even going to give them enough to survive. You can’t attack someone for doing nothing if your lot intends to do less.
Her career was done when she dared attack Trump and didn't fold immediately like DeSantis. Which makes kowtowing like this just undignified.
I’m guessing she knows her only chance now is if Trump is out of the running through health issues then she needs to have the backing of the MAGAnuts to take his place but she’s also not alienated floaters by going Bigly for him.
Looking at him recently it’s not a wild idea that he might suffer some major health episode.
Sensible positioning on the small chance of Trump falling before the election.
Rishi gives SKS a 25 point start as he fires the gun (according to YG)
Hmmm.
This is going to be a fascinating election, because right now the polls just feel off to me. I dont doubt that Labour are ahead by enough to get a decent working majority, and the Tories are in a very bad place.
BUT:
I am just not sure I can conceive of a situation where we will have a 25 point gap when push comes to shove. I simply can’t. 10 - most probably. 15? Yes, definitely a possibility. But that gap? I simply cannot see it.
But again - it would be a significantly bad polling failure to underestimate the Tory vote so severely.
So I remain intrigued.
This may not be wholly accurate as I haven't got the patience to count. But the last 100 or so (and probably more) opinion polls on Wiki show a Labour lead of between 15 (lowest) and 30 (highest) - let's say an average of 22.5, then. So if the polling is out it would be a catastrophic error by every polling company involved. If the "real" Labour lead was 5-10 points, surely some polls at least would show that?
Maybe folk are over-complicating it, and the average of those last 100 polls is about where we're at going in to the GE campaign.
I'm also of the view that movement back to the Tories is by no means inevitable. The possibility of an utterly chaotic Tory campaign could even lead to the polling gap widening. Don't underestimate the ability of the currently divided Tories to make a complete hash of it.
Do you really think such a result is possible? (Non-sarcastic question).
I do think more people ought to be at least contemplating the possibility. It would have profound implications. Not least, that fewer than a tenth of the PLP could breakwaway and instantly become the official Opposition...
Yes. I mentioned this to my mother yesterday and she wouldn't hear of it. Considered it to be dangerous hubris to even think it.
I'm sure she'll blame me if the campaign turns into a disaster for Labour.
Comments
But I do think the behaviour of the Ch4 news journalist was wrong. Her being a sh*t does not excuse him being one, too.
Having men feel guilty for existing doesn't do anyone much good. You need to provide a carrot to reward good behaviour, and then reserve the warranted negativity for specific transgressions.
The maddening thing at the moment is that there's a general anti-men vibe, but the chances of specific men who commit rape, or acts of domestic violence, etc, being held to account are low.
I used to joke elsewhere that his opinion related to the lunch he was given rather than the scheme it supposedly was connected to because even I could see through the scheme in 30 seconds.
You also have to remember that because Ed Davey was working with these people there will be people who signed up for the scheme because an MP was "championing their work"
https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1793675769358758010?t=G2qWhhyvRqwioZXv6nathA&s=19
My team - Stockport County - has its surname for the town's status as a county borough, a status which has had no currency for the past 50 years. I'm obscurely pleased with this.
https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1793674917659205645
https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1793677999721902268
Fosse means ditch btw. Fosse Way is a Roman road, perhaps originally a defensive ditch from Exeter to Lincoln.
The original team nickname was "The Fossils" !
LAB: 46% (-1)
CON: 21% (+1)
RFM: 12% (+1)
LDM: 9% (=)
GRN: 7% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via
@YouGov
, 21-22 May.
Changes w/ 15-16 May.
Rishi gives SKS a 25 point start as he fires the gun (according to YG)
It comes after former SNP chief executive Peter Murrell was charged last month
https://x.com/ScotNational/status/1793676658161176878
In a statement on Thursday afternoon, Police Scotland suggested that the investigation had not yet come to an end.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/24342177.police-scotland-send-report-crown-office-peter-murrell-arrest/
SKS has expelled over 60 Jews for antisemitism
https://x.com/stevecooper1610/status/1793580769077797172
But apart from that
What might save many Tory seats is a fragmentation of the anti-Tory vote. Labour under Starmer and the Lib Dems under Davey will, I think, struggle to match the 43.2% and 16.8% their parties managed in 1997.
So there will be plenty more votes for the Greens, Reform and the SNP. The Greens received under 62,000 votes in 1997.
Opinium weight up Con to account for their increased DKs
Mind you, I said that about Murrell too.
My club as a kid was Forest, who I still very much look out for but like Cookie I am really a Stockport County fan these days; I've adopted them since moving here and am proud that I can say my son's first football match was County v Chorley in the National League North. Heady heights of League One next season but nobody can accuse him of being a fairweather fan.
Maybe Thompson should not have lifted the umbrella but Vennells deserves no hiding place for what she did. The best place for her to be if she dislikes being in the glare of public censure is inside a prison cell.
It is not particularly clear on a probability basis that Sunak will be more influential post election than the leaders of the LDs or SNPs. It is also quite conceivable from here that those leaders may be the official leader of the opposition.
I think they've all become US citizens and stood for Congress.
SKS Maj 240
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=27&LAB=44&LIB=9&Reform=10&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=14.7&SCOTLAB=37.1&SCOTLIB=7.7&SCOTReform=3.5&SCOTGreen=3.8&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=30.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
https://x.com/stevecooper1610/status/1793580769077797172
Anyway, the More in Common poll is fun. Considering they are the pollster most favourable to the tories it’s a pretty dreadful start for them.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves (memo: myself). Need to see a raft of other initial pollsters and then there are 6 weeks to go.
But this all become less hypothetical now. It’s not ‘how would you vote if there were …’. It’s c. ‘How do you intend to vote at the General Election on July 4th.’
Sadly for the Conservatives I think there will be little movement. But let’s wait and see.
This is going to be a fascinating election, because right now the polls just feel off to me. I dont doubt that Labour are ahead by enough to get a decent working majority, and the Tories are in a very bad place.
BUT:
I am just not sure I can conceive of a situation where we will have a 25 point gap when push comes to shove. I simply can’t. 10 - most probably. 15? Yes, definitely a possibility. But that gap? I simply cannot see it.
But again - it would be a significantly bad polling failure to underestimate the Tory vote so severely.
So I remain intrigued.
As his suit steadily loses its shape in the downpour, the structure of his barnet remains impervious:
https://x.com/BBCBreaking/status/1793318181089476720
Whoever is providing the hair product should use that in their next ad.
If the Tories had outperformed their best pre-campaign polls by 3pp back in 1997 then they'd have received 37% of the vote, instead of 30.7%.
30% for the Tories feels like it would be a surprisingly good result given the starting point.
https://x.com/RepMTG/status/1793664369244725581
THE FIGHTBACK STARTS HERE!
The full effect of the election announcement will be in a weeks time, I think.
So that’s two polls out since the call. More in Common:
LAB: 44% (+1)
CON: 27% (=)
RFM: 10% (-1)
LDM: 9% (+)
GRN: 5% (-1)
SNP: 3% (+1)
The Constituency is a mess, with some intercommunal tensions that spill over to party politics. Con will do better than one might expect in other constituencies, but will still be a safe Labour hold despite the Hindutva vote. Labour have a Hindu candidate too. The local Tory party have their own internal issues, with their most prominent Councillor suspended from the party for threatening behaviour.
https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/leicester-news/leicester-councillor-suspended-party-after-9189720?utm_source=linkCopy&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar
Incidentally, I once met Sunaks parents in this constituency when they were visiting her elderly parents a few years back.
I can see Labour underperforming their worst polling more easily then I can see the Tories overperforming their best.
Lol, 42% glad the spiv isn't returning
We don’t live in a Presidency and I feel you are teeny-weeny bit SKS obsessed?
xx
How likely is it that the polls narrow significantly before July 4th? Well, historically, campaigns make little to no difference. This message might not be well-received in Downing Street, but if we judge campaign impact as movement in the polls from the point of announcement to polling day, Mr. Sunak’s chips are cooked. The evidence is stark: in UK general elections since 1992, the average change in the Conservative/Labour lead during the campaign has been just under four percentage points. Reminder: he currently trails by 22 points.
Famously though, the change during the campaign has occasionally been much higher. When Theresa May called her snap election in 2017 her party was, on average, eighteen points ahead in the polls, but by the final days of the campaign her lead had shrunk by almost two thirds. The eventual results were even worse, and cost May her majority. But everyone agrees her campaign was apocalyptically bad – and 2017 should be considered a monumental outlier as far as this analysis is concerned.
So the Tories romping back to the front of this horserace based on a highly effective campaign? Not likely, and probably even less so with the generally unimpressive campaigner that the Prime Minister is seen to be at the helm.
It is invidious that such a person be held in anything less than High Regard. All that she did was to fiddle with the lives of some of The Head Count. Not Real People. NPCs, really.
Some years ago, I was at a garden party where the then Home Sec was present. Had a few words about the scandal of the day - Rotherham. A flunky to the Home Sec was appalled at my suggestion that, since the people in charge had proudly declared they had got rid of the evidence against themselves, that the Home Sec should simply put those responsible on the various registries of people who were a danger to children.
Apparently, I didn't understand how hard working and wonderful these people were.
Will Rishi (or Reform) go with Waterloo?
"I feel like I win when I loo-oose ! Waterloo ..."
Plus someone gets to wear electric blue, flared, just below the knee pedal-pushers, with silver platform boots.
Is this the next Trouser Innovation?
I think
LAB 38%
CON32%
LD 11%
Reform 5%
Green 8%
But thats gonna need a bad campaign by SKS and a good one by the Blue team and would still lead to PM SKS by 56
It would have profound implications.
Not least, that fewer than a tenth of the PLP could breakwaway and instantly become the official Opposition...
Looking at him recently it’s not a wild idea that he might suffer some major health episode.
Sensible positioning on the small chance of Trump falling before the election.
Maybe folk are over-complicating it, and the average of those last 100 polls is about where we're at going in to the GE campaign.
I'm also of the view that movement back to the Tories is by no means inevitable. The possibility of an utterly chaotic Tory campaign could even lead to the polling gap widening. Don't underestimate the ability of the currently divided Tories to make a complete hash of it.
Crown also confirms investigations still ongoing into Nicola Sturgeon and Colin Beattie
https://x.com/KieranPAndrews/status/1793680277744857399
I'm sure she'll blame me if the campaign turns into a disaster for Labour.