So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?
This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.
I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.
The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.
I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.
He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.
Yes. It was a poison chalice that he took on. Credit to him for doing so. He had a lucky break (or unlucky depending upon how you look at it) when he got the unexpected break of Chancellor from Treasury Secretary because of circumstances.
I feel a bit sorry for him because he obviously can't stand down before the election and after he will be leader of the opposition and presumably will resign and become a backbencher after a leadership contest. Unlike someone like Heath I can't imagine he will want to stay around for 5 years. Maybe he takes a job that forces him to resign.
It does ruin my Rishi Sunak Tory leader exit bet for 2025, I must admit.
What exactly is your bet? He may be a caretaker leader for some time.
If the Tories are sensible they shouldn't rush into anything (yeah I know it might also be a bloodbath afterwards), but I would guess they would want to line it all up for the conference season.
No chance he'd be interim leader for six months. He may not be for very long at all - it's all a bit demeaning for an ex-PM to do PMQs as a stop-gap opposition leader.
Yep I agree. Just trying to give @Casino_Royale some hope for his bet. It's not dead yet. Almost, but it is still twitching.
Of course this isn't really a headache for Starmer at all. Rather an opportunity to push once more his message that Labour has changed and he is nothing like Corbyn. Even if he loses one seat, the media coverage is a boon in 630 seats elsewhere.
And standing against Labour means leaving (or being expelled from) the party. Though it would be funny if Jeremy Corbyn stands in Starmer's constituency, and even funnier if he wins.
Close of nominations in the 2024 general election is 4pm on Friday 7 June, 19 full working days before official polling day. So the political parties now have a full fortnight to pick and nominate their candidates, then get the signatures and submit the forms.…
By my reckoning Labour have about 100 vacancies still to fill, and the Conservatives 190, but new candidates are being announced every few minutes right now.
Those 100 Labour vacancies are nearly all in unwinnable seats (though who knows). Labour's candidates are in place in all their safe and target seats, with one or two notable exceptions (Corbyn's and Abbott's).
Holly Lynch's, too.
Of course you could probably say the same of the Tories' 150 (or 350).
BREAKING: Byline Times has now identified a second hi-viz jacket-wearing man asking questions of Rishi Sunak at this morning's event as local Conservative councillor Ben Hall-Evans
Do you actually think the majority of voters will even register this ? Or care ?
Absolutely not. But it doesn't suggest to me that they've got a very component campaigning team, which does matter.
This happens at almost every event at every election. Politicians don't allow themselves to be exposed to bear traps
Actually i think if politicians can handle it, it can be a positive. Obviously Major and his soap box, but Cameron got ambushed by the Lib Dem activist who tried to use his disabled kid to shame Dave, but despite the media getting all excited at such a mic drop event, Cameron in the end came out of it fairly well as he was polite and engaged (despite the guy not doing it in good faith).
Gordon Brown and Mrs Duffy has to be one of the bigger clangers.
His problem was that he got caught letting out his real feelings for that demographic of people afterwards. The actual encounter was tricky, but not terrible.
and then there was Prescott smacking the voter
I think Brown v Mrs Duffy was a big negative for Brown - Prescott v the egg thrower was probably a positive for Prescott
Gordon went up in my estimation after that - but I suppose I'd be in a minority there.
Gordon stayed exactly the same in my estimation. I don't think Mrs. Duffy was asking an unreasonable question - why is my town so much more full of foreigners than it used to be? - and I don't think doing so is bigoted. But I know that in the view of some (like Gordon) even to ask such as question is unforgiveable. But even so, I found the sight of him having the recording played back to him almost unwatchable. I've had bad days at work, but fortunately never that bad. Poor sod.
But yes, on Prescott vs the egg thrower, or Prescott vs Danbert Nobacon, Prescott comes out the winner. I'm absolutely no fan of Prescott, his approach, or his policies, but going over the line to physical assault is far far far too far, and a quick retaliatory punch is entirely within the bounds of acceptability in that case.
Close of nominations in the 2024 general election is 4pm on Friday 7 June, 19 full working days before official polling day. So the political parties now have a full fortnight to pick and nominate their candidates, then get the signatures and submit the forms.…
By my reckoning Labour have about 100 vacancies still to fill, and the Conservatives 190, but new candidates are being announced every few minutes right now.
Those 100 Labour vacancies are nearly all in unwinnable seats (though who knows). Labour's candidates are in place in all their safe and target seats, with one or two notable exceptions (Corbyn's and Abbott's).
Who knows, precisely, Jared O'Mara was selected for an "unwinnable" seat after all.
It wasn't seen as that unwinnable... it had just over a 2k Clegg majority in 2015. It was a surprise in 2017, but not some kind of crazy, out of nowhere thunderbolt. Lib Dems remained in the doldrums, Labour held everything else in Sheffield and were bound to pile in.
It's not like Labour choosing a student to fight a Tory/Lib Dem marginal in the certain knowledge they'd be squeezed out - it was a perfectly credible target, which makes the fact O'Mara passed vetting surprising.
Okay, so we’re now back to posts accumulating faster than they can all be read. Four hours at work and nearly 700 behind already, with more meetings still to go today.
Somewhere rock solid and inner city. More likely to have young, transient voters who are less likely to vote anyway. Same with ethnic minority vote. And somewhere safe so you get 'Doesn't matter anyway' voters. The BBC did an interesting article ahead of 2019.
Commons Library has a report doing it seat by seat. Lowest in 2019 all in Kingston upon Hull and Labour holds, except for Chorley which had the new speaker so the main parties all stopped running.
So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?
This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.
I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.
The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.
I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.
He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.
Yes. It was a poison chalice that he took on. Credit to him for doing so. He had a lucky break (or unlucky depending upon how you look at it) when he got the unexpected break of Chancellor from Treasury Secretary because of circumstances.
I feel a bit sorry for him because he obviously can't stand down before the election and after he will be leader of the opposition and presumably will resign and become a backbencher after a leadership contest. Unlike someone like Heath I can't imagine he will want to stay around for 5 years. Maybe he takes a job that forces him to resign.
It does ruin my Rishi Sunak Tory leader exit bet for 2025, I must admit.
What exactly is your bet? He may be a caretaker leader for some time.
If the Tories are sensible they shouldn't rush into anything (yeah I know it might also be a bloodbath afterwards), but I would guess they would want to line it all up for the conference season.
Year Rishi replaced as Tory leader on Betfair. I was on 2025.
Okay, so we’re now back to posts accumulating faster than they can all be read. Four hours at work and nearly 700 behind already, with more meetings still to go today.
Apart from the header, which is great, you can skip most of our vapourings. We're still in the phoney war stage of GE discussion.
Close of nominations in the 2024 general election is 4pm on Friday 7 June, 19 full working days before official polling day. So the political parties now have a full fortnight to pick and nominate their candidates, then get the signatures and submit the forms.…
By my reckoning Labour have about 100 vacancies still to fill, and the Conservatives 190, but new candidates are being announced every few minutes right now.
Those 100 Labour vacancies are nearly all in unwinnable seats (though who knows). Labour's candidates are in place in all their safe and target seats, with one or two notable exceptions (Corbyn's and Abbott's).
Who knows, precisely, Jared O'Mara was selected for an "unwinnable" seat after all.
It wasn't seen as that unwinnable... it had just over a 2k Clegg majority in 2015. It was a surprise in 2017, but not some kind of crazy, out of nowhere thunderbolt. Lib Dems remained in the doldrums, Labour held everything else in Sheffield and were bound to pile in.
It's not like Labour choosing a student to fight a Tory/Lib Dem marginal in the certain knowledge they'd be squeezed out - it was a perfectly credible target, which makes the fact O'Mara passed vetting surprising.
A friend of a friend who knows these things tells me that O'Mara's selection basically comes from the urgent process pre-2017 being split between factions who traded seats. The Unions were more optimistic and pro-Corbyn so they lobbied for some targets, which other factions who assumed Labour could only go backwards gave them. So they put O'Mara in to Sheffield Hallam with almost no vetting.
I can't verify any of that, but that's the story I've heard.
Bids for election debates are being made by broadcasters individually rather than collectively, with a scramble behind the scenes likely in the coming days as they seek confirmations.
Nick Robinson, the BBC’s former political editor and host of the Today programme on Radio Four, is also due to hold interviews with constantly interrupt all the party leaders, if they agree to do so.
So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?
This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.
I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.
The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.
I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.
He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.
Yes. It was a poison chalice that he took on. Credit to him for doing so. He had a lucky break (or unlucky depending upon how you look at it) when he got the unexpected break of Chancellor from Treasury Secretary because of circumstances.
I feel a bit sorry for him because he obviously can't stand down before the election and after he will be leader of the opposition and presumably will resign and become a backbencher after a leadership contest. Unlike someone like Heath I can't imagine he will want to stay around for 5 years. Maybe he takes a job that forces him to resign.
It does ruin my Rishi Sunak Tory leader exit bet for 2025, I must admit.
What exactly is your bet? He may be a caretaker leader for some time.
If the Tories are sensible they shouldn't rush into anything (yeah I know it might also be a bloodbath afterwards), but I would guess they would want to line it all up for the conference season.
No chance he'd be interim leader for six months. He may not be for very long at all - it's all a bit demeaning for an ex-PM to do PMQs as a stop-gap opposition leader.
Yep I agree. Just trying to give @Casino_Royale some hope for his bet. It's not dead yet. Almost, but it is still twitching.
I have to write off my date bets. I got it wrong and took Rishi at his word.
It can happen easily. I think @Pulpstar took a hit laying December 2019 last time too.
This has been a rather curiously…. flat? start to a GE campaign I think. Does anyone agree?
I know there’s somewhat of an inevitability about the outcome but does it does feel like everything is majoring on the inevitability of the outcome and not really much else.
I know it’s early days but it’s making the 2001 GE seem exciting. And we are likely getting a !!!!change of government!!! (for only the third time in 40 odd years), so it should really be feeling a bit more dramatic than it does.
BREAKING: Byline Times has now identified a second hi-viz jacket-wearing man asking questions of Rishi Sunak at this morning's event as local Conservative councillor Ben Hall-Evans
Do you actually think the majority of voters will even register this ? Or care ?
Absolutely not. But it doesn't suggest to me that they've got a very component campaigning team, which does matter.
This happens at almost every event at every election. Politicians don't allow themselves to be exposed to bear traps
Actually i think if politicians can handle it, it can be a positive. Obviously Major and his soap box, but Cameron got ambushed by the Lib Dem activist who tried to use his disabled kid to shame Dave, but despite the media getting all excited at such a mic drop event, Cameron in the end came out of it fairly well as he was polite and engaged (despite the guy not doing it in good faith).
Gordon Brown and Mrs Duffy has to be one of the bigger clangers.
His problem was that he got caught letting out his real feelings for that demographic of people afterwards. The actual encounter was tricky, but not terrible.
and then there was Prescott smacking the voter
I think Brown v Mrs Duffy was a big negative for Brown - Prescott v the egg thrower was probably a positive for Prescott
Gordon went up in my estimation after that - but I suppose I'd be in a minority there.
Gordon stayed exactly the same in my estimation. I don't think Mrs. Duffy was asking an unreasonable question - why is my town so much more full of foreigners than it used to be? - and I don't think doing so is bigoted. But I know that in the view of some (like Gordon) even to ask such as question is unforgiveable. But even so, I found the sight of him having the recording played back to him almost unwatchable. I've had bad days at work, but fortunately never that bad. Poor sod.
But yes, on Prescott vs the egg thrower, or Prescott vs Danbert Nobacon, Prescott comes out the winner. I'm absolutely no fan of Prescott, his approach, or his policies, but going over the line to physical assault is far far far too far, and a quick retaliatory punch is entirely within the bounds of acceptability in that case.
I've always felt that Prescott became more popular after lamping that bloke. And Tony Blair's "John is John" was well judged.
Somewhere rock solid and inner city. More likely to have young, transient voters who are less likely to vote anyway. Same with ethnic minority vote. And somewhere safe so you get 'Doesn't matter anyway' voters. The BBC did an interesting article ahead of 2019.
Commons Library has a report doing it seat by seat. Lowest in 2019 all in Kingston upon Hull and Labour holds, except for Chorley which had the new speaker so the main parties all stopped running.
So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?
This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.
I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.
The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.
I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.
He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.
Exactly. We're not looking at any sort of personal tragedy here. He's been more lucky than unlucky and I'd say he's overachieved in politics. If you'd have told him in 2019 when he'd been in politics for a minute and wasn't even 40 years old that he'd be PM in 3 years he'd have just giggled.
I think history will judge him adequately, particularly as a contrast to his immediate predecessors, unless this election is at the very worst end of expectations. Clearly, he's not in the pantheon of PMs by any means - he's lower tier. But there's a defence there that it is doubtful whether there was any route back after Partygate and Truss. If there was, he sure as hell didn't find it. But he was our first Asian PM, said a few things about AI and, crucially, appears not to be corrupt or completely bonkers, so immediately shoots to the top of the list of best PMs of the 2020s so far.
After his rain-soaked launch, Rishi Sunak has so far today: - asked Welsh workers if they're looking forward to 'all the football' [not realising Wales not in Euro2024] - had 2 Tory cllrs cosplaying as members of public to ask him Qs
BREAKING: Byline Times has now identified a second hi-viz jacket-wearing man asking questions of Rishi Sunak at this morning's event as local Conservative councillor Ben Hall-Evans
Do you actually think the majority of voters will even register this ? Or care ?
Absolutely not. But it doesn't suggest to me that they've got a very component campaigning team, which does matter.
This happens at almost every event at every election. Politicians don't allow themselves to be exposed to bear traps
Actually i think if politicians can handle it, it can be a positive. Obviously Major and his soap box, but Cameron got ambushed by the Lib Dem activist who tried to use his disabled kid to shame Dave, but despite the media getting all excited at such a mic drop event, Cameron in the end came out of it fairly well as he was polite and engaged (despite the guy not doing it in good faith).
Gordon Brown and Mrs Duffy has to be one of the bigger clangers.
His problem was that he got caught letting out his real feelings for that demographic of people afterwards. The actual encounter was tricky, but not terrible.
and then there was Prescott smacking the voter
I think Brown v Mrs Duffy was a big negative for Brown - Prescott v the egg thrower was probably a positive for Prescott
Gordon went up in my estimation after that - but I suppose I'd be in a minority there.
Gordon stayed exactly the same in my estimation. I don't think Mrs. Duffy was asking an unreasonable question - why is my town so much more full of foreigners than it used to be? - and I don't think doing so is bigoted. But I know that in the view of some (like Gordon) even to ask such as question is unforgiveable. But even so, I found the sight of him having the recording played back to him almost unwatchable. I've had bad days at work, but fortunately never that bad. Poor sod.
But yes, on Prescott vs the egg thrower, or Prescott vs Danbert Nobacon, Prescott comes out the winner. I'm absolutely no fan of Prescott, his approach, or his policies, but going over the line to physical assault is far far far too far, and a quick retaliatory punch is entirely within the bounds of acceptability in that case.
I've always felt that Prescott became more popular after lamping that bloke. And Tony Blair's "John is John" was well judged.
The interesting thing about that incident is that it happened before the internet really had changed the way videos spread. So Blair/Campbell had to decide how to play it initially based solely on Prescott's/his team's telling of the story and without having seen the footage. A lot of trust shown that day.
BREAKING: Byline Times has now identified a second hi-viz jacket-wearing man asking questions of Rishi Sunak at this morning's event as local Conservative councillor Ben Hall-Evans
Do you actually think the majority of voters will even register this ? Or care ?
Absolutely not. But it doesn't suggest to me that they've got a very component campaigning team, which does matter.
This happens at almost every event at every election. Politicians don't allow themselves to be exposed to bear traps
Actually i think if politicians can handle it, it can be a positive. Obviously Major and his soap box, but Cameron got ambushed by the Lib Dem activist who tried to use his disabled kid to shame Dave, but despite the media getting all excited at such a mic drop event, Cameron in the end came out of it fairly well as he was polite and engaged (despite the guy not doing it in good faith).
Gordon Brown and Mrs Duffy has to be one of the bigger clangers.
His problem was that he got caught letting out his real feelings for that demographic of people afterwards. The actual encounter was tricky, but not terrible.
and then there was Prescott smacking the voter
I think Brown v Mrs Duffy was a big negative for Brown - Prescott v the egg thrower was probably a positive for Prescott
Gordon went up in my estimation after that - but I suppose I'd be in a minority there.
Gordon stayed exactly the same in my estimation. I don't think Mrs. Duffy was asking an unreasonable question - why is my town so much more full of foreigners than it used to be? - and I don't think doing so is bigoted. But I know that in the view of some (like Gordon) even to ask such as question is unforgiveable. But even so, I found the sight of him having the recording played back to him almost unwatchable. I've had bad days at work, but fortunately never that bad. Poor sod.
But yes, on Prescott vs the egg thrower, or Prescott vs Danbert Nobacon, Prescott comes out the winner. I'm absolutely no fan of Prescott, his approach, or his policies, but going over the line to physical assault is far far far too far, and a quick retaliatory punch is entirely within the bounds of acceptability in that case.
To me GB's private irritation with Mrs Duffy showed him as instinctively anti-xenophobic.
Thing is, it's going to be like Brexit isn't it. Very few politicians wanted Brexit, but there was enough public pressure that it happened anyway.
and it's shit, and the people that wanted it think it's shit.
The lesson from Brexit is not "if enough people want it, it should happen"
Well how should things happen in a democracy? I don't want to keep banging on about it, but I feel duty bound to pop up every so often on this to confirm that given the choice now I would definitley be voting for Brexit.
There's an illusory idea that if only we'd voted 52-48 the other way it would be forever the early noughties and Britain would be growing and the EU would be a benign club of free traders and bad things like the financial crash and covid and the Ukraine war, ooh, and the rise of China, and the culture wars, and TikTok, and indeed anything from thoroughly to vaguely disagreeable about the 2020s, wouldn't have happened.
But it was never an option to go back to the early noughties. The Lisbon treaty made Europe constitutionally unworkable. The Euro made Europe economically parlous. The immigration boom of the 2010s made a mockery of open borders. The far right is on the rise across the continent. The world inside and outside our continent has become a more disagreeable place.
I would love to live in a sunlit pan-European utopia of democracy and growth and a culture at ease with itself. But that isn't what the EU is offering.
So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?
This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.
I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.
The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.
I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.
He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.
Exactly. We're not looking at any sort of personal tragedy here. He's been more lucky than unlucky and I'd say he's overachieved in politics. If you'd have told him in 2019 when he'd been in politics for a minute and wasn't even 40 years old that he'd be PM in 3 years he'd have just giggled.
I think history will judge him adequately, particularly as a contrast to his immediate predecessors, unless this election is at the very worst end of expectations. Clearly, he's not in the pantheon of PMs by any means - he's lower tier. But there's a defence there that it is doubtful whether there was any route back after Partygate and Truss. If there was, he sure as hell didn't find it. But he was our first Asian PM, said a few things about AI and, crucially, appears not to be corrupt or completely bonkers, so immediately shoots to the top of the list of best PMs of the 2020s so far.
I'm not sure tbh. It'll be interesting if he does stay in politics; the assumption seems to be that if he loses he'll up sticks to California, but is that actually based on anything he's said?
I had a bet offer with BigJohnOwls(?) I think about this. Not sure if we ever finalised terms. Would like to clear that up before the election if possible if he's on here today?
So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?
This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.
I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.
The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.
I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.
He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.
Exactly. We're not looking at any sort of personal tragedy here. He's been more lucky than unlucky and I'd say he's overachieved in politics. If you'd have told him in 2019 when he'd been in politics for a minute and wasn't even 40 years old that he'd be PM in 3 years he'd have just giggled.
I think history will judge him adequately, particularly as a contrast to his immediate predecessors, unless this election is at the very worst end of expectations. Clearly, he's not in the pantheon of PMs by any means - he's lower tier. But there's a defence there that it is doubtful whether there was any route back after Partygate and Truss. If there was, he sure as hell didn't find it. But he was our first Asian PM, said a few things about AI and, crucially, appears not to be corrupt or completely bonkers, so immediately shoots to the top of the list of best PMs of the 2020s so far.
I think it’ll be overpromoted and weak but not actively bonkers like Truss or mendacious like Johnson.
Hunt is the one who might be interesting. I suspect history may give him a more favourable write up.
Was it lies from Bad Al Campbell this morning, or just him not understanding the system he put in place?
He said that Sunak was odd in deciding to 'go long' with a six week campaign and that he wouldn't have, blah blah blah, what a mistake etc.
The presenter on Today should've called him out and reminded him that the 25 working day rule (therefore with Bank Holiday Monday, and the washing up period) effectively means that a campaign can't be less than six weeks now anyway. Presenter should've also pointed out that this increase from 17 to 25 was implemented by his former boss, Tony Blair.
Unsurprisingly, the bet has now been pulled (not even repriced). Shame as Mrs Dumbosaurus, Grandfather Dumbosaurus, Grandmother Dumbosaurus and Baby Dumbosaurus were all about to sign up for accounts.
So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?
This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.
I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.
The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.
I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.
He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.
Exactly. We're not looking at any sort of personal tragedy here. He's been more lucky than unlucky and I'd say he's overachieved in politics. If you'd have told him in 2019 when he'd been in politics for a minute and wasn't even 40 years old that he'd be PM in 3 years he'd have just giggled.
I think history will judge him adequately, particularly as a contrast to his immediate predecessors, unless this election is at the very worst end of expectations. Clearly, he's not in the pantheon of PMs by any means - he's lower tier. But there's a defence there that it is doubtful whether there was any route back after Partygate and Truss. If there was, he sure as hell didn't find it. But he was our first Asian PM, said a few things about AI and, crucially, appears not to be corrupt or completely bonkers, so immediately shoots to the top of the list of best PMs of the 2020s so far.
Yep - although one would hope and expect SKS to take that mantle shortly.
So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?
This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.
I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.
The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.
I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.
He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.
Exactly. We're not looking at any sort of personal tragedy here. He's been more lucky than unlucky and I'd say he's overachieved in politics. If you'd have told him in 2019 when he'd been in politics for a minute and wasn't even 40 years old that he'd be PM in 3 years he'd have just giggled.
I think history will judge him adequately, particularly as a contrast to his immediate predecessors, unless this election is at the very worst end of expectations. Clearly, he's not in the pantheon of PMs by any means - he's lower tier. But there's a defence there that it is doubtful whether there was any route back after Partygate and Truss. If there was, he sure as hell didn't find it. But he was our first Asian PM, said a few things about AI and, crucially, appears not to be corrupt or completely bonkers, so immediately shoots to the top of the list of best PMs of the 2020s so far.
I think that is a very good analysis. If the result is at the very worst end of expectations for the Tories, history won't be kind to him and that will be unfair, because most, if not nearly all the blame, lies elsewhere.
He can afford not to be, although some people have asked questions about how many contracts Infosys have 'won' while he has been PM
And an awful lot of pandemic money disappeared into the void while he was chancellor.
Given the catastrophic nature of the pandemic, economically and socially, I think it was entirely appropriate to suspend normal procurement rules.
Even if we accept a little bit of profiteering and waste might have gone on the alternative of being unprepared or ill-equipped due to due process was far far worse.
BREAKING: Byline Times has now identified a second hi-viz jacket-wearing man asking questions of Rishi Sunak at this morning's event as local Conservative councillor Ben Hall-Evans
Do you actually think the majority of voters will even register this ? Or care ?
Absolutely not. But it doesn't suggest to me that they've got a very component campaigning team, which does matter.
This happens at almost every event at every election. Politicians don't allow themselves to be exposed to bear traps
Actually i think if politicians can handle it, it can be a positive. Obviously Major and his soap box, but Cameron got ambushed by the Lib Dem activist who tried to use his disabled kid to shame Dave, but despite the media getting all excited at such a mic drop event, Cameron in the end came out of it fairly well as he was polite and engaged (despite the guy not doing it in good faith).
Gordon Brown and Mrs Duffy has to be one of the bigger clangers.
His problem was that he got caught letting out his real feelings for that demographic of people afterwards. The actual encounter was tricky, but not terrible.
and then there was Prescott smacking the voter
I think Brown v Mrs Duffy was a big negative for Brown - Prescott v the egg thrower was probably a positive for Prescott
Gordon went up in my estimation after that - but I suppose I'd be in a minority there.
Gordon stayed exactly the same in my estimation. I don't think Mrs. Duffy was asking an unreasonable question - why is my town so much more full of foreigners than it used to be? - and I don't think doing so is bigoted. But I know that in the view of some (like Gordon) even to ask such as question is unforgiveable. But even so, I found the sight of him having the recording played back to him almost unwatchable. I've had bad days at work, but fortunately never that bad. Poor sod.
But yes, on Prescott vs the egg thrower, or Prescott vs Danbert Nobacon, Prescott comes out the winner. I'm absolutely no fan of Prescott, his approach, or his policies, but going over the line to physical assault is far far far too far, and a quick retaliatory punch is entirely within the bounds of acceptability in that case.
I've always felt that Prescott became more popular after lamping that bloke. And Tony Blair's "John is John" was well judged.
The interesting thing about that incident is that it happened before the internet really had changed the way videos spread. So Blair/Campbell had to decide how to play it initially based solely on Prescott's/his team's telling of the story and without having seen the footage. A lot of trust shown that day.
The biggest campaign mistake ever though remains --the Sheffield rally (or at least Kinnocks behaving like a lout in it) .It lost the election probably
So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?
This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.
I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.
The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.
I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.
He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.
Yes. It was a poison chalice that he took on. Credit to him for doing so. He had a lucky break (or unlucky depending upon how you look at it) when he got the unexpected break of Chancellor from Treasury Secretary because of circumstances.
I feel a bit sorry for him because he obviously can't stand down before the election and after he will be leader of the opposition and presumably will resign and become a backbencher after a leadership contest. Unlike someone like Heath I can't imagine he will want to stay around for 5 years. Maybe he takes a job that forces him to resign.
It does ruin my Rishi Sunak Tory leader exit bet for 2025, I must admit.
What exactly is your bet? He may be a caretaker leader for some time.
If the Tories are sensible they shouldn't rush into anything (yeah I know it might also be a bloodbath afterwards), but I would guess they would want to line it all up for the conference season.
No chance he'd be interim leader for six months. He may not be for very long at all - it's all a bit demeaning for an ex-PM to do PMQs as a stop-gap opposition leader.
Yep I agree. Just trying to give @Casino_Royale some hope for his bet. It's not dead yet. Almost, but it is still twitching.
I have to write off my date bets. I got it wrong and took Rishi at his word.
It can happen easily. I think @Pulpstar took a hit laying December 2019 last time too.
Congratulations to those who called it right.
Technically, Rishi kept his word, as everything after 1 July is the second half of the year. I still wonder whether July might have been in mind much earlier than we imagine.
BREAKING: Byline Times has now identified a second hi-viz jacket-wearing man asking questions of Rishi Sunak at this morning's event as local Conservative councillor Ben Hall-Evans
Do you actually think the majority of voters will even register this ? Or care ?
Absolutely not. But it doesn't suggest to me that they've got a very component campaigning team, which does matter.
This happens at almost every event at every election. Politicians don't allow themselves to be exposed to bear traps
Actually i think if politicians can handle it, it can be a positive. Obviously Major and his soap box, but Cameron got ambushed by the Lib Dem activist who tried to use his disabled kid to shame Dave, but despite the media getting all excited at such a mic drop event, Cameron in the end came out of it fairly well as he was polite and engaged (despite the guy not doing it in good faith).
Gordon Brown and Mrs Duffy has to be one of the bigger clangers.
His problem was that he got caught letting out his real feelings for that demographic of people afterwards. The actual encounter was tricky, but not terrible.
and then there was Prescott smacking the voter
I think Brown v Mrs Duffy was a big negative for Brown - Prescott v the egg thrower was probably a positive for Prescott
Gordon went up in my estimation after that - but I suppose I'd be in a minority there.
Gordon stayed exactly the same in my estimation. I don't think Mrs. Duffy was asking an unreasonable question - why is my town so much more full of foreigners than it used to be? - and I don't think doing so is bigoted. But I know that in the view of some (like Gordon) even to ask such as question is unforgiveable. But even so, I found the sight of him having the recording played back to him almost unwatchable. I've had bad days at work, but fortunately never that bad. Poor sod.
But yes, on Prescott vs the egg thrower, or Prescott vs Danbert Nobacon, Prescott comes out the winner. I'm absolutely no fan of Prescott, his approach, or his policies, but going over the line to physical assault is far far far too far, and a quick retaliatory punch is entirely within the bounds of acceptability in that case.
To me GB's private irritation with Mrs Duffy showed him as instinctively anti-xenophobic.
Yes, instinctively as in seeing racism everywhere whether it's there or not - the classic cry of 'racist' at anyone who asks an awkward question. Which was neither more nor less than I expected of him.
If I'd have been Mrs. Duffy I would have offered the brief explanation to the waiting press in exchange for Gordon's shoes. He would have then left unshod - or, more probably, confiscated the shoes of an underling. I would have then had a souvenir of the incident, and there would have been a constant mystery of why when Gordon left one of them left in just socks. It would have added to the air of mystery around the man - to go with the orange blob and farmy-farm. It would have been a secret I kept with me to my grave, denying forever that I was a pair of smart man's shoes to the richer.
Korea unveils $19 bil. support package for chip industry https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=375236 .."Countries' fates now depend on who can first produce cutting-edge semiconductors with highly advanced information processing capabilities. Korea should provide robust support for the semiconductor industry to ensure that we do not fall behind other rival countries in semiconductor development," the president said during the meeting...
So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?
This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.
I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.
The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.
I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.
He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.
Exactly. We're not looking at any sort of personal tragedy here. He's been more lucky than unlucky and I'd say he's overachieved in politics. If you'd have told him in 2019 when he'd been in politics for a minute and wasn't even 40 years old that he'd be PM in 3 years he'd have just giggled.
I think history will judge him adequately, particularly as a contrast to his immediate predecessors, unless this election is at the very worst end of expectations. Clearly, he's not in the pantheon of PMs by any means - he's lower tier. But there's a defence there that it is doubtful whether there was any route back after Partygate and Truss. If there was, he sure as hell didn't find it. But he was our first Asian PM, said a few things about AI and, crucially, appears not to be corrupt or completely bonkers, so immediately shoots to the top of the list of best PMs of the 2020s so far.
Yes, the biggest criticism of him is that he isn't terribly good at politics. Which strangley isn't the worst you can say of a PM. And he is arguably better at politics than Liz Truss, who having won the leadership election appeared to forget the need to engage in politics at all, and brought it all crashing down on top of her.
He can afford not to be, although some people have asked questions about how many contracts Infosys have 'won' while he has been PM
And an awful lot of pandemic money disappeared into the void while he was chancellor.
Given the catastrophic nature of the pandemic, economically and socially, I think it was entirely appropriate to suspend normal procurement rules.
Even if we accept a little bit of profiteering and waste might have gone on the alternative of being unprepared or ill-equipped due to due process was far far worse.
You can well imagine the meetings where “Does anyone know anyone who knows anyone who can get this stuff at any price?” was said.
It’s fair to go after those who got paid and didn’t deliver though, but not those who did what they were asked at the price that was agreed. Ministers wouldn’t have been approving individual procurement decisions.
Thing is, it's going to be like Brexit isn't it. Very few politicians wanted Brexit, but there was enough public pressure that it happened anyway.
and it's shit, and the people that wanted it think it's shit.
The lesson from Brexit is not "if enough people want it, it should happen"
Well how should things happen in a democracy? I don't want to keep banging on about it, but I feel duty bound to pop up every so often on this to confirm that given the choice now I would definitley be voting for Brexit.
There's an illusory idea that if only we'd voted 52-48 the other way it would be forever the early noughties and Britain would be growing and the EU would be a benign club of free traders and bad things like the financial crash and covid and the Ukraine war, ooh, and the rise of China, and the culture wars, and TikTok, and indeed anything from thoroughly to vaguely disagreeable about the 2020s, wouldn't have happened.
But it was never an option to go back to the early noughties. The Lisbon treaty made Europe constitutionally unworkable. The Euro made Europe economically parlous. The immigration boom of the 2010s made a mockery of open borders. The far right is on the rise across the continent. The world inside and outside our continent has become a more disagreeable place.
I would love to live in a sunlit pan-European utopia of democracy and growth and a culture at ease with itself. But that isn't what the EU is offering.
First rule of Scott & Paste club: you do not discuss Brexit with him
Second rule of Scott & Paste club: you do NOT discuss Brexit with him
BREAKING: Byline Times has now identified a second hi-viz jacket-wearing man asking questions of Rishi Sunak at this morning's event as local Conservative councillor Ben Hall-Evans
Do you actually think the majority of voters will even register this ? Or care ?
Absolutely not. But it doesn't suggest to me that they've got a very component campaigning team, which does matter.
This happens at almost every event at every election. Politicians don't allow themselves to be exposed to bear traps
Actually i think if politicians can handle it, it can be a positive. Obviously Major and his soap box, but Cameron got ambushed by the Lib Dem activist who tried to use his disabled kid to shame Dave, but despite the media getting all excited at such a mic drop event, Cameron in the end came out of it fairly well as he was polite and engaged (despite the guy not doing it in good faith).
Gordon Brown and Mrs Duffy has to be one of the bigger clangers.
His problem was that he got caught letting out his real feelings for that demographic of people afterwards. The actual encounter was tricky, but not terrible.
and then there was Prescott smacking the voter
I think Brown v Mrs Duffy was a big negative for Brown - Prescott v the egg thrower was probably a positive for Prescott
Gordon went up in my estimation after that - but I suppose I'd be in a minority there.
Gordon stayed exactly the same in my estimation. I don't think Mrs. Duffy was asking an unreasonable question - why is my town so much more full of foreigners than it used to be? - and I don't think doing so is bigoted. But I know that in the view of some (like Gordon) even to ask such as question is unforgiveable. But even so, I found the sight of him having the recording played back to him almost unwatchable. I've had bad days at work, but fortunately never that bad. Poor sod.
But yes, on Prescott vs the egg thrower, or Prescott vs Danbert Nobacon, Prescott comes out the winner. I'm absolutely no fan of Prescott, his approach, or his policies, but going over the line to physical assault is far far far too far, and a quick retaliatory punch is entirely within the bounds of acceptability in that case.
I've always felt that Prescott became more popular after lamping that bloke. And Tony Blair's "John is John" was well judged.
The interesting thing about that incident is that it happened before the internet really had changed the way videos spread. So Blair/Campbell had to decide how to play it initially based solely on Prescott's/his team's telling of the story and without having seen the footage. A lot of trust shown that day.
The biggest campaign mistake ever though remains --the Sheffield rally (or at least Kinnocks behaving like a lout in it) .It lost the election probably
IIRC that was a myth - Kinnock knew he was in trouble before he went on stage.
Stewart - nor me - are saying we want a negotiated settlement in Russia/Ukraine, only that is the most realistic thing that will happen at this stage. I don't think any serious person honestly believes at this stage that this war will end unless that happens.
It's not what I want - and I am happy to be called an appeaser by the usual people, fine - but I don't think pointing out a realistic outcome is a bad thing.
The war won’t end with a negotiated settlement. Putin will continue to undermine any agreement and once he feels strong enough would reengage.
So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?
This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.
I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.
The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.
I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.
He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.
Exactly. We're not looking at any sort of personal tragedy here. He's been more lucky than unlucky and I'd say he's overachieved in politics. If you'd have told him in 2019 when he'd been in politics for a minute and wasn't even 40 years old that he'd be PM in 3 years he'd have just giggled.
I think history will judge him adequately, particularly as a contrast to his immediate predecessors, unless this election is at the very worst end of expectations. Clearly, he's not in the pantheon of PMs by any means - he's lower tier. But there's a defence there that it is doubtful whether there was any route back after Partygate and Truss. If there was, he sure as hell didn't find it. But he was our first Asian PM, said a few things about AI and, crucially, appears not to be corrupt or completely bonkers, so immediately shoots to the top of the list of best PMs of the 2020s so far.
I think that is a very good analysis. If the result is at the very worst end of expectations for the Tories, history won't be kind to him and that will be unfair, because most, if not nearly all the blame, lies elsewhere.
Though thus far Sunak appears to have very limited campaigning or presentational skills. Strangely yesterday he kept reminding me of Ed Miliband - not a bad bloke at all, decent, but not a leader, not interesting, no wit or improvisation skills (compare with how Boris would get on with being rained on) and no good at media.
In modern politics that's a fail. It isn't fair, but them's the breaks.
So for my patch of Norfolk, here are my initial predictions (will update mid campaign after getting some feedback and seeing polling) Norwich North - Lab gain Norwich South (my constituency) - Lab Hold, Greens second NW Nofollk - Con Hold SW Norfolk (Truss) - Con Hold Mid Norfolk - Con Hold South Norfolk - Lab Gain Broadland and Fakenham - Toss up Lab/Con lean Con Great Yarmouth - Toss up Lab/Con lean Lab North Norfolk - Toss up LD/Con lean LD Waveney Valley- Con win (new seat)
I might do the same for Merseyside too...
LABOUR HOLD [1]
[1] Southport spoils the joke don't they, the gits.
He can afford not to be, although some people have asked questions about how many contracts Infosys have 'won' while he has been PM
And an awful lot of pandemic money disappeared into the void while he was chancellor.
Given the catastrophic nature of the pandemic, economically and socially, I think it was entirely appropriate to suspend normal procurement rules.
Even if we accept a little bit of profiteering and waste might have gone on the alternative of being unprepared or ill-equipped due to due process was far far worse.
It was the likely outright fraud, and the paucity of recovery efforts which are the issue.
A "little bit of profiteering and waste" would have been to be expected, and a massive improvement on what actually happened.
So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?
This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.
I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.
The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.
I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.
He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.
Yes. It was a poison chalice that he took on. Credit to him for doing so. He had a lucky break (or unlucky depending upon how you look at it) when he got the unexpected break of Chancellor from Treasury Secretary because of circumstances.
I feel a bit sorry for him because he obviously can't stand down before the election and after he will be leader of the opposition and presumably will resign and become a backbencher after a leadership contest. Unlike someone like Heath I can't imagine he will want to stay around for 5 years. Maybe he takes a job that forces him to resign.
It does ruin my Rishi Sunak Tory leader exit bet for 2025, I must admit.
What exactly is your bet? He may be a caretaker leader for some time.
If the Tories are sensible they shouldn't rush into anything (yeah I know it might also be a bloodbath afterwards), but I would guess they would want to line it all up for the conference season.
No chance he'd be interim leader for six months. He may not be for very long at all - it's all a bit demeaning for an ex-PM to do PMQs as a stop-gap opposition leader.
Yep I agree. Just trying to give @Casino_Royale some hope for his bet. It's not dead yet. Almost, but it is still twitching.
I have to write off my date bets. I got it wrong and took Rishi at his word.
It can happen easily. I think @Pulpstar took a hit laying December 2019 last time too.
Congratulations to those who called it right.
Technically, Rishi kept his word, as everything after 1 July is the second half of the year. I still wonder whether July might have been in mind much earlier than we imagine.
/Sad pedant mode on/
Because Feb is short, the 1st & 2nd of July are not in the second half of the year.
4th July is only just in the second half thanks to it being a leap year.
Was it lies from Bad Al Campbell this morning, or just him not understanding the system he put in place?
He said that Sunak was odd in deciding to 'go long' with a six week campaign and that he wouldn't have, blah blah blah, what a mistake etc.
The presenter on Today should've called him out and reminded him that the 25 working day rule (therefore with Bank Holiday Monday, and the washing up period) effectively means that a campaign can't be less than six weeks now anyway. Presenter should've also pointed out that this increase from 17 to 25 was implemented by his former boss, Tony Blair.
That would require A. Campbell to care about the truth or a TV presenter to know about the subject.
We have multiple decades of evidence that neither is true.
So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?
This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.
I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.
The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.
I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.
He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.
Yes. It was a poison chalice that he took on. Credit to him for doing so. He had a lucky break (or unlucky depending upon how you look at it) when he got the unexpected break of Chancellor from Treasury Secretary because of circumstances.
I feel a bit sorry for him because he obviously can't stand down before the election and after he will be leader of the opposition and presumably will resign and become a backbencher after a leadership contest. Unlike someone like Heath I can't imagine he will want to stay around for 5 years. Maybe he takes a job that forces him to resign.
It does ruin my Rishi Sunak Tory leader exit bet for 2025, I must admit.
What exactly is your bet? He may be a caretaker leader for some time.
If the Tories are sensible they shouldn't rush into anything (yeah I know it might also be a bloodbath afterwards), but I would guess they would want to line it all up for the conference season.
No chance he'd be interim leader for six months. He may not be for very long at all - it's all a bit demeaning for an ex-PM to do PMQs as a stop-gap opposition leader.
Yep I agree. Just trying to give @Casino_Royale some hope for his bet. It's not dead yet. Almost, but it is still twitching.
I have to write off my date bets. I got it wrong and took Rishi at his word.
It can happen easily. I think @Pulpstar took a hit laying December 2019 last time too.
Congratulations to those who called it right.
Technically, Rishi kept his word, as everything after 1 July is the second half of the year. I still wonder whether July might have been in mind much earlier than we imagine.
/Sad pedant mode on/
Because Feb is short, 1st July is not in the second half of the year.
4th July is only just in the second half thanks to it being a leap year.
imagine if not a leap year and Sunak would then be accused of misleading parliament.
So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?
This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.
I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.
The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.
I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.
He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.
Exactly. We're not looking at any sort of personal tragedy here. He's been more lucky than unlucky and I'd say he's overachieved in politics. If you'd have told him in 2019 when he'd been in politics for a minute and wasn't even 40 years old that he'd be PM in 3 years he'd have just giggled.
I think history will judge him adequately, particularly as a contrast to his immediate predecessors, unless this election is at the very worst end of expectations. Clearly, he's not in the pantheon of PMs by any means - he's lower tier. But there's a defence there that it is doubtful whether there was any route back after Partygate and Truss. If there was, he sure as hell didn't find it. But he was our first Asian PM, said a few things about AI and, crucially, appears not to be corrupt or completely bonkers, so immediately shoots to the top of the list of best PMs of the 2020s so far.
Yes, the biggest criticism of him is that he isn't terribly good at politics. Which strangley isn't the worst you can say of a PM. And he is arguably better at politics than Liz Truss, who having won the leadership election appeared to forget the need to engage in politics at all, and brought it all crashing down on top of her.
I would judge Sunak more harshly.
The evidence provided by the decision to axe HS2 is that he was panicking about his poor opinion poll position, and casting about for populist remedies. And so not only did he do something for populist reasons, rather than because he thought it was the best policy, but it also failed to win him any support, so it was pointless.
There are a few things Sunak might have done better if his response to poor polling had been calmer. And then he might have closed the polling gap as Major did, a little.
So for my patch of Norfolk, here are my initial predictions (will update mid campaign after getting some feedback and seeing polling) Norwich North - Lab gain Norwich South (my constituency) - Lab Hold, Greens second NW Nofollk - Con Hold SW Norfolk (Truss) - Con Hold Mid Norfolk - Con Hold South Norfolk - Lab Gain Broadland and Fakenham - Toss up Lab/Con lean Con Great Yarmouth - Toss up Lab/Con lean Lab North Norfolk - Toss up LD/Con lean LD Waveney Valley- Con win (new seat)
I'd be surprised if the Tories lose North and South Norfolk.
I wouldn’t. The new South Norfolk seat is very different to the old one.
So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?
This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.
I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.
The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.
I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.
He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.
Yes. It was a poison chalice that he took on. Credit to him for doing so. He had a lucky break (or unlucky depending upon how you look at it) when he got the unexpected break of Chancellor from Treasury Secretary because of circumstances.
I feel a bit sorry for him because he obviously can't stand down before the election and after he will be leader of the opposition and presumably will resign and become a backbencher after a leadership contest. Unlike someone like Heath I can't imagine he will want to stay around for 5 years. Maybe he takes a job that forces him to resign.
It does ruin my Rishi Sunak Tory leader exit bet for 2025, I must admit.
What exactly is your bet? He may be a caretaker leader for some time.
If the Tories are sensible they shouldn't rush into anything (yeah I know it might also be a bloodbath afterwards), but I would guess they would want to line it all up for the conference season.
No chance he'd be interim leader for six months. He may not be for very long at all - it's all a bit demeaning for an ex-PM to do PMQs as a stop-gap opposition leader.
Yep I agree. Just trying to give @Casino_Royale some hope for his bet. It's not dead yet. Almost, but it is still twitching.
I have to write off my date bets. I got it wrong and took Rishi at his word.
It can happen easily. I think @Pulpstar took a hit laying December 2019 last time too.
Congratulations to those who called it right.
Technically, Rishi kept his word, as everything after 1 July is the second half of the year. I still wonder whether July might have been in mind much earlier than we imagine.
/Sad pedant mode on/
Because Feb is short, the 1st & 2nd of July are not in the second half of the year.
4th July is only just in the second half thanks to it being a leap year.
Me: Looks furtively around to see whether anyone has noticed that all the 'mid-year' estimates of things produced by me in various publications* are based on 1 July
*I was just testing peer review, obviously. It failed.
So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?
This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.
I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.
The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.
I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.
He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.
Yes. It was a poison chalice that he took on. Credit to him for doing so. He had a lucky break (or unlucky depending upon how you look at it) when he got the unexpected break of Chancellor from Treasury Secretary because of circumstances.
I feel a bit sorry for him because he obviously can't stand down before the election and after he will be leader of the opposition and presumably will resign and become a backbencher after a leadership contest. Unlike someone like Heath I can't imagine he will want to stay around for 5 years. Maybe he takes a job that forces him to resign.
It does ruin my Rishi Sunak Tory leader exit bet for 2025, I must admit.
What exactly is your bet? He may be a caretaker leader for some time.
If the Tories are sensible they shouldn't rush into anything (yeah I know it might also be a bloodbath afterwards), but I would guess they would want to line it all up for the conference season.
No chance he'd be interim leader for six months. He may not be for very long at all - it's all a bit demeaning for an ex-PM to do PMQs as a stop-gap opposition leader.
Yep I agree. Just trying to give @Casino_Royale some hope for his bet. It's not dead yet. Almost, but it is still twitching.
I have to write off my date bets. I got it wrong and took Rishi at his word.
It can happen easily. I think @Pulpstar took a hit laying December 2019 last time too.
Congratulations to those who called it right.
Technically, Rishi kept his word, as everything after 1 July is the second half of the year. I still wonder whether July might have been in mind much earlier than we imagine.
/Sad pedant mode on/
Because Feb is short, 1st July is not in the second half of the year.
4th July is only just in the second half thanks to it being a leap year.
imagine if not a leap year and Sunak would then be accused of misleading parliament.
I don't think he would as:
a) 7th month is close enough for 99% of people not to be pedants. b) Nobody really gives a shit. c) Everyone only cares about the election once its called. d) Parliament is closed soon anyway.
After his rain-soaked launch, Rishi Sunak has so far today: - asked Welsh workers if they're looking forward to 'all the football' [not realising Wales not in Euro2024] - had 2 Tory cllrs cosplaying as members of public to ask him Qs
It's only Day 2.
I wonder if Paul Waugh will be selected for Labour for Rochdale this time having just missed out last time.
After his rain-soaked launch, Rishi Sunak has so far today: - asked Welsh workers if they're looking forward to 'all the football' [not realising Wales not in Euro2024] - had 2 Tory cllrs cosplaying as members of public to ask him Qs
So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?
This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.
I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.
The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.
I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.
He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.
Exactly. We're not looking at any sort of personal tragedy here. He's been more lucky than unlucky and I'd say he's overachieved in politics. If you'd have told him in 2019 when he'd been in politics for a minute and wasn't even 40 years old that he'd be PM in 3 years he'd have just giggled.
I think history will judge him adequately, particularly as a contrast to his immediate predecessors, unless this election is at the very worst end of expectations. Clearly, he's not in the pantheon of PMs by any means - he's lower tier. But there's a defence there that it is doubtful whether there was any route back after Partygate and Truss. If there was, he sure as hell didn't find it. But he was our first Asian PM, said a few things about AI and, crucially, appears not to be corrupt or completely bonkers, so immediately shoots to the top of the list of best PMs of the 2020s so far.
Yes, the biggest criticism of him is that he isn't terribly good at politics. Which strangley isn't the worst you can say of a PM. And he is arguably better at politics than Liz Truss, who having won the leadership election appeared to forget the need to engage in politics at all, and brought it all crashing down on top of her.
I would judge Sunak more harshly.
The evidence provided by the decision to axe HS2 is that he was panicking about his poor opinion poll position, and casting about for populist remedies. And so not only did he do something for populist reasons, rather than because he thought it was the best policy, but it also failed to win him any support, so it was pointless.
There are a few things Sunak might have done better if his response to poor polling had been calmer. And then he might have closed the polling gap as Major did, a little.
I think his vacillation and lack of conviction has caused actual damage to the country, so I would agree with that.
It was always going to be a tough few years. But the lack of a decisive, sensible, joined-up government has made things much worse for us all.
BREAKING: Byline Times has now identified a second hi-viz jacket-wearing man asking questions of Rishi Sunak at this morning's event as local Conservative councillor Ben Hall-Evans
Do you actually think the majority of voters will even register this ? Or care ?
Absolutely not. But it doesn't suggest to me that they've got a very component campaigning team, which does matter.
This happens at almost every event at every election. Politicians don't allow themselves to be exposed to bear traps
Actually i think if politicians can handle it, it can be a positive. Obviously Major and his soap box, but Cameron got ambushed by the Lib Dem activist who tried to use his disabled kid to shame Dave, but despite the media getting all excited at such a mic drop event, Cameron in the end came out of it fairly well as he was polite and engaged (despite the guy not doing it in good faith).
Gordon Brown and Mrs Duffy has to be one of the bigger clangers.
His problem was that he got caught letting out his real feelings for that demographic of people afterwards. The actual encounter was tricky, but not terrible.
and then there was Prescott smacking the voter
I think Brown v Mrs Duffy was a big negative for Brown - Prescott v the egg thrower was probably a positive for Prescott
Gordon went up in my estimation after that - but I suppose I'd be in a minority there.
Gordon stayed exactly the same in my estimation. I don't think Mrs. Duffy was asking an unreasonable question - why is my town so much more full of foreigners than it used to be? - and I don't think doing so is bigoted. But I know that in the view of some (like Gordon) even to ask such as question is unforgiveable. But even so, I found the sight of him having the recording played back to him almost unwatchable. I've had bad days at work, but fortunately never that bad. Poor sod.
But yes, on Prescott vs the egg thrower, or Prescott vs Danbert Nobacon, Prescott comes out the winner. I'm absolutely no fan of Prescott, his approach, or his policies, but going over the line to physical assault is far far far too far, and a quick retaliatory punch is entirely within the bounds of acceptability in that case.
I've always felt that Prescott became more popular after lamping that bloke. And Tony Blair's "John is John" was well judged.
The interesting thing about that incident is that it happened before the internet really had changed the way videos spread. So Blair/Campbell had to decide how to play it initially based solely on Prescott's/his team's telling of the story and without having seen the footage. A lot of trust shown that day.
The biggest campaign mistake ever though remains --the Sheffield rally (or at least Kinnocks behaving like a lout in it) .It lost the election probably
IIRC that was a myth - Kinnock knew he was in trouble before he went on stage.
Agreed. Though that just made the triumphalism on show at the rally all the worse. But it probably didn't swing many votes.
If I had to nominate a 'biggest campaign error ever', it might be the 2017 Tory manifesto, which both undermined the Brexit message, gave Labour a load of things to get their teeth into, and put May on a back foot she was very uncomfortable defending. The mistake was all the worse considering the stakes on the table in the election.
(The 1983 Labour manifesto, rather like their 2019 one, simply confirmed people's view of the party; it didn't swing votes as in 2017).
If we're talking about single incidents, then there are surprisingly few that have really mattered much in the final analysis.
So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?
This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.
I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.
The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.
I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.
He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.
Exactly. We're not looking at any sort of personal tragedy here. He's been more lucky than unlucky and I'd say he's overachieved in politics. If you'd have told him in 2019 when he'd been in politics for a minute and wasn't even 40 years old that he'd be PM in 3 years he'd have just giggled.
I think history will judge him adequately, particularly as a contrast to his immediate predecessors, unless this election is at the very worst end of expectations. Clearly, he's not in the pantheon of PMs by any means - he's lower tier. But there's a defence there that it is doubtful whether there was any route back after Partygate and Truss. If there was, he sure as hell didn't find it. But he was our first Asian PM, said a few things about AI and, crucially, appears not to be corrupt or completely bonkers, so immediately shoots to the top of the list of best PMs of the 2020s so far.
Yes, the biggest criticism of him is that he isn't terribly good at politics. Which strangley isn't the worst you can say of a PM. And he is arguably better at politics than Liz Truss, who having won the leadership election appeared to forget the need to engage in politics at all, and brought it all crashing down on top of her.
I would judge Sunak more harshly.
The evidence provided by the decision to axe HS2 is that he was panicking about his poor opinion poll position, and casting about for populist remedies. And so not only did he do something for populist reasons, rather than because he thought it was the best policy, but it also failed to win him any support, so it was pointless.
There are a few things Sunak might have done better if his response to poor polling had been calmer. And then he might have closed the polling gap as Major did, a little.
Ditto Rwanda. No asylo is ever going to end up there now. So much money, time and energy wasted on a populist stunt that amounted to nothing.
Nope. Farage wants to come home to the Conservative Party, the next leader will let him in, so he was never going to rock the boat right now.
No he does not.
Farage is only interested in Farage.
He wants to make money shilling for Fox and friends in the States, not piss about failing to get elected to Parliament.
Farage does probably have one final shot at the big leagues. He has decided that time was not now. I suspect he is keeping his powder dry for the next parliament.
Nope. Farage wants to come home to the Conservative Party, the next leader will let him in, so he was never going to rock the boat right now.
No he does not.
Farage is only interested in Farage.
He wants to make money shilling for Fox and friends in the States, not piss about failing to get elected to Parliament.
He will front up one Reform event, get repeatedly asked 'if they are so good why are you scared to stand?' And cry off the rest of the campaign as Reform trend to 2% in the polls
After his rain-soaked launch, Rishi Sunak has so far today: - asked Welsh workers if they're looking forward to 'all the football' [not realising Wales not in Euro2024] - had 2 Tory cllrs cosplaying as members of public to ask him Qs
It's only Day 2.
Perhaps the message yesterday to stock up on essentials was intended to ensure popcorn supplies are adequate...
After his rain-soaked launch, Rishi Sunak has so far today: - asked Welsh workers if they're looking forward to 'all the football' [not realising Wales not in Euro2024] - had 2 Tory cllrs cosplaying as members of public to ask him Qs
It's only Day 2.
Football doesn't seem to be such a big part of football as it used to be, does it? In the 90s and noughties, the football team the PM supported was an important fact that everyone had to know. There may have been an Only Connect round on it - Chelsea, Newcastle United, Raith Rovers, Aston Villa. But who did TMay suuport? Boris? Rishi? I couldn't say.
Which is probably healthy, really. Nothing* intrinsically wrong with football, but it strikes me as daft that our favourite football teams should be an important factor about us. (I couldn't say what any PM's favourite county cricket team or rugby team is, with the exception of Major at Surrey, and nor would I expect to be able to.)
What sort of leader kicks of a GE campaign without his only MP in that county?
A coward, that sort, one who won’t stand up to the misogynists in his party.
I thought Starmer had two MPs in Kent nowadays?
The other one logged out of politics yesterday with a two line tweet. 'Cheers. I'm not standing again' basically
Still an MP though, until the dissolution of parliament, right?
I'm going for the pedantic/technical correctness here
Ah yes indeed. Full pedant marks!
Don't worry, someone will be along to out-pedant me shortly, explaining that due to the unrepealed Protection of Canterbury from Association with St George Cross Flags in Rochester and Strood Act of 1789, Canterbury is not really in Kent due to being too posh.
Sorry if I've missed something, but what does the leap year have to do with anything?
31+28+31+30+31+30+3 = 184
So any election held on or after 3rd July is always in the second half of the year, whether or not a leap year. Even 2nd July (day 183 out of 365) would be fine, since polls would still be open in the afternoon meaning that the election is happening during the second half of the year, even if it's also being held in the first half as well. Midday would be cutoff.
July 4th is always entirely in the 2nd half of the year.
Nope. Farage wants to come home to the Conservative Party, the next leader will let him in, so he was never going to rock the boat right now.
No he does not.
Farage is only interested in Farage.
He wants to make money shilling for Fox and friends in the States, not piss about failing to get elected to Parliament.
Farage does probably have one final shot at the big leagues. He has decided that time was not now. I suspect he is keeping his powder dry for the next parliament.
Nah, he's 60 years old already and Labour will be in power now for a Scottish generation at least.
He's done, he's a has-been. A Parliamentary never-was and never-will-be.
Even if he could be accepted into the Tories, why piss about failing to get into Parliament with no possible future in the party of government until he is a a septuagenarian or octogenarian at the very least? When instead he could be in America getting paid big bucks as a media pundit?
Believing Reform voters, who don't like or trust Sunak, and are hopping mad over immigration, will be won back by "we failed to deliver on Rwanda before the election but trust us we'll do better next time" is a pretty fragile reed bearing a lot of electoral load
I see Skybet are running scared by closing down the bet recommended in the header already - shows the bookies take note of this site .The site comes alive for betting at GE and hopefully most posts will be betting related or giving info to be used for bets
So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?
This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.
I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.
The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.
I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.
He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.
Exactly. We're not looking at any sort of personal tragedy here. He's been more lucky than unlucky and I'd say he's overachieved in politics. If you'd have told him in 2019 when he'd been in politics for a minute and wasn't even 40 years old that he'd be PM in 3 years he'd have just giggled.
I think history will judge him adequately, particularly as a contrast to his immediate predecessors, unless this election is at the very worst end of expectations. Clearly, he's not in the pantheon of PMs by any means - he's lower tier. But there's a defence there that it is doubtful whether there was any route back after Partygate and Truss. If there was, he sure as hell didn't find it. But he was our first Asian PM, said a few things about AI and, crucially, appears not to be corrupt or completely bonkers, so immediately shoots to the top of the list of best PMs of the 2020s so far.
I think that is a very good analysis. If the result is at the very worst end of expectations for the Tories, history won't be kind to him and that will be unfair, because most, if not nearly all the blame, lies elsewhere.
Really? Things Rishi chose to do:
> Cancel the important bits of national renewal project, HS2. > Fight a car centric culture war of the back of a v-close byelection. > Superficial moves on smoking, maths for all, banning killer cyclists. > Rwanda. > Stopping boats. > Asset stripping councils. > Shunting all the big fiscal decisions to 2025.
I see Rishi being remembered as a regressive and divisive PM. He chose to govern on close minded short termism.
Bids for election debates are being made by broadcasters individually rather than collectively, with a scramble behind the scenes likely in the coming days as they seek confirmations.
Nick Robinson, the BBC’s former political editor and host of the Today programme on Radio Four, is also due to hold interviews with constantly interrupt all the party leaders, if they agree to do so.
Let’s hope the major broadcasters lose out to a bunch of podcasters - Triggernometry anyone, sitting them both down for hours outside the broadcast rules?
Given the change in the media landscape since the last election, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see parties organise debates between themselves under agreed rules, and leave the broadcasters with the choice to accept the stream or not.
Believing Reform voters, who don't like or trust Sunak, and are hopping mad over immigration, will be won back by "we failed to deliver on Rwanda before the election but trust us we'll do better next time" is a pretty fragile reed bearing a lot of electoral load
"Vote for us and the Rwanda flights will take off on 5 July. Promise." Do they really think this policy will win them the election?
Nope. Farage wants to come home to the Conservative Party, the next leader will let him in, so he was never going to rock the boat right now.
No he does not.
Farage is only interested in Farage.
He wants to make money shilling for Fox and friends in the States, not piss about failing to get elected to Parliament.
Farage does probably have one final shot at the big leagues. He has decided that time was not now. I suspect he is keeping his powder dry for the next parliament.
Nah, he's 60 years old already and Labour will be in power now for a Scottish generation at least.
He's done, he's a has-been. A Parliamentary never-was and never-will-be.
Even if he could be accepted into the Tories, why piss about failing to get into Parliament with no possible future in the party of government until he is a a septuagenarian or octogenarian at the very least? When instead he could be in America getting paid big bucks as a media pundit?
He is not a young 60 year old either. On watching 'I'm a celebrity get me out of here' my wife assumed he was older than me. I do look young for my age (so I am told), but still I have 9 years on him and she still thought I was younger.
So hang on, Rishis big legacy smoking bill isn’t going to make it into law before the dissolution?
This really feels like he decided on the hoof. That seemed to be his Big Idea.
I have wondered what Rishi Sunak actually went into politics for.
The one subject on which he is both knowledgeable and passionate is IT, which you don't need to be a politician for.
I think he genuinely likes politics and government and is ambitious and was told he was a bit like Blair, so he went for it.
He shouldn't be too downtrodden. At the end of the day he's been PM of the United Kingdom for 20 months in a difficult time, with no real scandal that's at his door, and that's a real achievement.
Yes. It was a poison chalice that he took on. Credit to him for doing so. He had a lucky break (or unlucky depending upon how you look at it) when he got the unexpected break of Chancellor from Treasury Secretary because of circumstances.
I feel a bit sorry for him because he obviously can't stand down before the election and after he will be leader of the opposition and presumably will resign and become a backbencher after a leadership contest. Unlike someone like Heath I can't imagine he will want to stay around for 5 years. Maybe he takes a job that forces him to resign.
It does ruin my Rishi Sunak Tory leader exit bet for 2025, I must admit.
What exactly is your bet? He may be a caretaker leader for some time.
If the Tories are sensible they shouldn't rush into anything (yeah I know it might also be a bloodbath afterwards), but I would guess they would want to line it all up for the conference season.
No chance he'd be interim leader for six months. He may not be for very long at all - it's all a bit demeaning for an ex-PM to do PMQs as a stop-gap opposition leader.
Yep I agree. Just trying to give @Casino_Royale some hope for his bet. It's not dead yet. Almost, but it is still twitching.
I have to write off my date bets. I got it wrong and took Rishi at his word.
It can happen easily. I think @Pulpstar took a hit laying December 2019 last time too.
Congratulations to those who called it right.
Technically, Rishi kept his word, as everything after 1 July is the second half of the year. I still wonder whether July might have been in mind much earlier than we imagine.
/Sad pedant mode on/
Because Feb is short, the 1st & 2nd of July are not in the second half of the year.
4th July is only just in the second half thanks to it being a leap year.
Me: Looks furtively around to see whether anyone has noticed that all the 'mid-year' estimates of things produced by me in various publications* are based on 1 July
*I was just testing peer review, obviously. It failed.
Don't believe everything on the internet...
Someone posted that yesterday and I've just checked it because I had second thoughts.
In a 365 day year, midday on the 2nd July is the mid-point, so the 3rd is the first full day in the second half of the year. In a leap year, midnight on the 1st / 2nd is the mid-point, so the 2nd is the first day in the second half of the year.
So the 4th is always in the second half.
Apologies, I should check such things before posting...
Suffice to say that Rishi couldn't have gone any earlier.
Nope. Farage wants to come home to the Conservative Party, the next leader will let him in, so he was never going to rock the boat right now.
No he does not.
Farage is only interested in Farage.
He wants to make money shilling for Fox and friends in the States, not piss about failing to get elected to Parliament.
Yes he does. He is on his way to becoming a Conservative Member. That’s what he wants. Not that you are wrong either, as he can do both. He was never going to ruin his chance of that at this election, the people who actually thought that were wrong.
You don’t go to Con Clubs very often. I was in one yesterday lunchtime playing snooker. Farage can walk into any Con Club in the country and get an instant standing ovation from everyone.
Ha! Yes, unfortunate typo - sorry. Though I would argue what I unintentionally said is also true!
No, nobody would care. Politicians appearing to care about football looks inauthentic and crass even if the politician in question genuinely does care about football (like Starmer).
After his rain-soaked launch, Rishi Sunak has so far today: - asked Welsh workers if they're looking forward to 'all the football' [not realising Wales not in Euro2024] - had 2 Tory cllrs cosplaying as members of public to ask him Qs
It's only Day 2.
Football doesn't seem to be such a big part of football as it used to be, does it? In the 90s and noughties, the football team the PM supported was an important fact that everyone had to know. There may have been an Only Connect round on it - Chelsea, Newcastle United, Raith Rovers, Aston Villa. But who did TMay suuport? Boris? Rishi? I couldn't say.
Which is probably healthy, really. Nothing* intrinsically wrong with football, but it strikes me as daft that our favourite football teams should be an important factor about us. (I couldn't say what any PM's favourite county cricket team or rugby team is, with the exception of Major at Surrey, and nor would I expect to be able to.)
*Actually lots, but let's not go into that now.
Sunak supports Southampton.
I wonder if he will be at the playoff final this weekend.
Believing Reform voters, who don't like or trust Sunak, and are hopping mad over immigration, will be won back by "we failed to deliver on Rwanda before the election but trust us we'll do better next time" is a pretty fragile reed bearing a lot of electoral load
"Vote for us and the Rwanda flights will take off on 5 July. Promise." Do they really think this policy will win them the election?
Comments
Were you up for Wes
A lot of hopeful faces; but none of the current Kent Labour MP's.....
Starmer tells me if Kent wants change, then he is the only option for them!
https://x.com/michaelkeohan/status/1793583173101830275
What sort of leader kicks of a GE campaign without his only MP in that county?
A coward, that sort, one who won’t stand up to the misogynists in his party.
Rock solid labour seat like Bootle ?
Of course you could probably say the same of the Tories' 150 (or 350).
I don't think Mrs. Duffy was asking an unreasonable question - why is my town so much more full of foreigners than it used to be? - and I don't think doing so is bigoted. But I know that in the view of some (like Gordon) even to ask such as question is unforgiveable.
But even so, I found the sight of him having the recording played back to him almost unwatchable. I've had bad days at work, but fortunately never that bad. Poor sod.
But yes, on Prescott vs the egg thrower, or Prescott vs Danbert Nobacon, Prescott comes out the winner. I'm absolutely no fan of Prescott, his approach, or his policies, but going over the line to physical assault is far far far too far, and a quick retaliatory punch is entirely within the bounds of acceptability in that case.
There's a few to watch
It's not like Labour choosing a student to fight a Tory/Lib Dem marginal in the certain knowledge they'd be squeezed out - it was a perfectly credible target, which makes the fact O'Mara passed vetting surprising.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50417767
Commons Library has a report doing it seat by seat. Lowest in 2019 all in Kingston upon Hull and Labour holds, except for Chorley which had the new speaker so the main parties all stopped running.
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/general-election-2019-turnout/
We're still in the phoney war stage of GE discussion.
I can't verify any of that, but that's the story I've heard.
Nick Robinson, the BBC’s former political editor and host of the Today programme on Radio Four, is also due to
hold interviews withconstantly interrupt all the party leaders, if they agree to do so.https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/05/23/tories-keir-starmer-record-six-tv-debates-general-election/
It can happen easily. I think @Pulpstar took a hit laying December 2019 last time too.
Congratulations to those who called it right.
I know there’s somewhat of an inevitability about the outcome but does it does feel like everything is majoring on the inevitability of the outcome and not really much else.
I know it’s early days but it’s making the 2001 GE seem exciting. And we are likely getting a !!!!change of government!!! (for only the third time in 40 odd years), so it should really be feeling a bit more dramatic than it does.
https://x.com/journoontheedge/status/1793412708001603809
After his rain-soaked launch, Rishi Sunak has so far today:
- asked Welsh workers if they're looking forward to 'all the football' [not realising Wales not in Euro2024]
- had 2 Tory cllrs cosplaying as members of public to ask him Qs
It's only Day 2.
To poll lower than 2001 would, given @Quincel figures for electorate and turnout, take a Tory vote share of 26.68% or below.
That's around about the top of their current polling range (27%) - they haven't had a 28% since February.
1924 is the last time that the Tories received fewer than 8 million votes, so before universal suffrage.
So, it's possible the Tories might receive their lowest number of votes in the age of universal suffrage.
I don't want to keep banging on about it, but I feel duty bound to pop up every so often on this to confirm that given the choice now I would definitley be voting for Brexit.
There's an illusory idea that if only we'd voted 52-48 the other way it would be forever the early noughties and Britain would be growing and the EU would be a benign club of free traders and bad things like the financial crash and covid and the Ukraine war, ooh, and the rise of China, and the culture wars, and TikTok, and indeed anything from thoroughly to vaguely disagreeable about the 2020s, wouldn't have happened.
But it was never an option to go back to the early noughties. The Lisbon treaty made Europe constitutionally unworkable. The Euro made Europe economically parlous. The immigration boom of the 2010s made a mockery of open borders. The far right is on the rise across the continent. The world inside and outside our continent has become a more disagreeable place.
I would love to live in a sunlit pan-European utopia of democracy and growth and a culture at ease with itself. But that isn't what the EU is offering.
Hunt is the one who might be interesting. I suspect history may give him a more favourable write up.
He said that Sunak was odd in deciding to 'go long' with a six week campaign and that he wouldn't have, blah blah blah, what a mistake etc.
The presenter on Today should've called him out and reminded him that the 25 working day rule (therefore with Bank Holiday Monday, and the washing up period) effectively means that a campaign can't be less than six weeks now anyway. Presenter should've also pointed out that this increase from 17 to 25 was implemented by his former boss, Tony Blair.
Even if we accept a little bit of profiteering and waste might have gone on the alternative of being unprepared or ill-equipped due to due process was far far worse.
If I'd have been Mrs. Duffy I would have offered the brief explanation to the waiting press in exchange for Gordon's shoes. He would have then left unshod - or, more probably, confiscated the shoes of an underling. I would have then had a souvenir of the incident, and there would have been a constant mystery of why when Gordon left one of them left in just socks. It would have added to the air of mystery around the man - to go with the orange blob and farmy-farm. It would have been a secret I kept with me to my grave, denying forever that I was a pair of smart man's shoes to the richer.
At least they have that ground game sorted.
Korea unveils $19 bil. support package for chip industry
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=375236
.."Countries' fates now depend on who can first produce cutting-edge semiconductors with highly advanced information processing capabilities. Korea should provide robust support for the semiconductor industry to ensure that we do not fall behind other rival countries in semiconductor development," the president said during the meeting...
Not without benefits, though.
Korean economy expected to grow 2.5% this year on chip export rebound: BOK
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=375241
And he is arguably better at politics than Liz Truss, who having won the leadership election appeared to forget the need to engage in politics at all, and brought it all crashing down on top of her.
It’s fair to go after those who got paid and didn’t deliver though, but not those who did what they were asked at the price that was agreed. Ministers wouldn’t have been approving individual procurement decisions.
Second rule of Scott & Paste club: you do NOT discuss Brexit with him
In modern politics that's a fail. It isn't fair, but them's the breaks.
LABOUR HOLD [1]
[1] Southport spoils the joke don't they, the gits.
A "little bit of profiteering and waste" would have been to be expected, and a massive improvement on what actually happened.
Because Feb is short, the 1st & 2nd of July are not in the second half of the year.
4th July is only just in the second half thanks to it being a leap year.
We have multiple decades of evidence that neither is true.
I'm going for the pedantic/technical correctness here
The evidence provided by the decision to axe HS2 is that he was panicking about his poor opinion poll position, and casting about for populist remedies. And so not only did he do something for populist reasons, rather than because he thought it was the best policy, but it also failed to win him any support, so it was pointless.
There are a few things Sunak might have done better if his response to poor polling had been calmer. And then he might have closed the polling gap as Major did, a little.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13451909/How-Rishis-snap-election-gambit-killed-Nigel-Farages-MP-ambitions-Brexit-champion-ready-run-Commons-PMs-shock-July-4-announcement-decided-not-win-seat-just-six-weeks.html
*I was just testing peer review, obviously. It failed.
a) 7th month is close enough for 99% of people not to be pedants.
b) Nobody really gives a shit.
c) Everyone only cares about the election once its called.
d) Parliament is closed soon anyway.
(I suspect he’s in the States, and can earn serious money there in the next six months).
Please can someone give the necessary £350k to Binface, for the deposit in every seat?
It was always going to be a tough few years. But the lack of a decisive, sensible, joined-up government has made things much worse for us all.
Farage is only interested in Farage.
He wants to make money shilling for Fox and friends in the States, not piss about failing to get elected to Parliament.
If I had to nominate a 'biggest campaign error ever', it might be the 2017 Tory manifesto, which both undermined the Brexit message, gave Labour a load of things to get their teeth into, and put May on a back foot she was very uncomfortable defending. The mistake was all the worse considering the stakes on the table in the election.
(The 1983 Labour manifesto, rather like their 2019 one, simply confirmed people's view of the party; it didn't swing votes as in 2017).
If we're talking about single incidents, then there are surprisingly few that have really mattered much in the final analysis.
All parties have always done this. Starmer will do this too. Always have, always will.
Sunak was actually competent with something is the shocker, not that he did it.
Which is probably healthy, really. Nothing* intrinsically wrong with football, but it strikes me as daft that our favourite football teams should be an important factor about us. (I couldn't say what any PM's favourite county cricket team or rugby team is, with the exception of Major at Surrey, and nor would I expect to be able to.)
*Actually lots, but let's not go into that now.
31+28+31+30+31+30+3 = 184
So any election held on or after 3rd July is always in the second half of the year, whether or not a leap year.
Even 2nd July (day 183 out of 365) would be fine, since polls would still be open in the afternoon meaning that the election is happening during the second half of the year, even if it's also being held in the first half as well. Midday would be cutoff.
July 4th is always entirely in the 2nd half of the year.
He's done, he's a has-been. A Parliamentary never-was and never-will-be.
Even if he could be accepted into the Tories, why piss about failing to get into Parliament with no possible future in the party of government until he is a a septuagenarian or octogenarian at the very least? When instead he could be in America getting paid big bucks as a media pundit?
NEW: Tory strategy comes into view
— plan is to make Rwanda the key dividing line, win back Reform votes and close gap with Labour
— senior Tory: ‘the choice at this election is flights off with the Conservatives or flights stopped with Keir Starmer’
@robfordmancs
Believing Reform voters, who don't like or trust Sunak, and are hopping mad over immigration, will be won back by "we failed to deliver on Rwanda before the election but trust us we'll do better next time" is a pretty fragile reed bearing a lot of electoral load
> Cancel the important bits of national renewal project, HS2.
> Fight a car centric culture war of the back of a v-close byelection.
> Superficial moves on smoking, maths for all, banning killer cyclists.
> Rwanda.
> Stopping boats.
> Asset stripping councils.
> Shunting all the big fiscal decisions to 2025.
I see Rishi being remembered as a regressive and divisive PM. He chose to govern on close minded short termism.
Given the change in the media landscape since the last election, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see parties organise debates between themselves under agreed rules, and leave the broadcasters with the choice to accept the stream or not.
And nobody would care if Richi hadn't tried to actually interact with a real person and bungled it so spectacularly.
https://x.com/PickardJE/status/1793613189302882392
He seemed pretty fit having said all of that.
Everything he does will be judged through that prism.
Someone posted that yesterday and I've just checked it because I had second thoughts.
In a 365 day year, midday on the 2nd July is the mid-point, so the 3rd is the first full day in the second half of the year.
In a leap year, midnight on the 1st / 2nd is the mid-point, so the 2nd is the first day in the second half of the year.
So the 4th is always in the second half.
Apologies, I should check such things before posting...
Suffice to say that Rishi couldn't have gone any earlier.
You don’t go to Con Clubs very often. I was in one yesterday lunchtime playing snooker. Farage can walk into any Con Club in the country and get an instant standing ovation from everyone.
No, nobody would care. Politicians appearing to care about football looks inauthentic and crass even if the politician in question genuinely does care about football (like Starmer).
I wonder if he will be at the playoff final this weekend.
This is a defensive election strategy.