Isabel Oakeshott @IsabelOakeshott · 9h The REAL reason Sunak panicked into calling a snap election will come out very shortly
OOOHH
Attention-seeking vagueness implying something juicy that probably doesn't exist.
Peston did something similar yesterday, but about something else.
Absolutely despise these attention seeking, engagement farming, twats who post stuff like this. ‘I know something you don’t. I won’t tell you what it is. Only that I know’
It's why I've been calling the 'Ukraine should give territory for peace!' shits appeasers.
Because they're doing what the appeasers in the 1930s did. Except the modern-day appeasers have the advantage of knowing what happened in the late 1930s. There were many sane, moral voices in the 1930s calling for appeasement: they were wrong, but many had their hearts in the right place.
Their modern-day counterparts have no such excuse. Putin is a fascist imperialist, and appeasing him will just lead to future expansion of his empire. Which is fine until it is your home he wants to expand into. (Though some modern-day appeasers might quite like living under Russia's thumb - they harken back to the glorious days of the USSR).
Putin is right about Woke, tho. And he's quite good on Russian medieval history. Swings and roundabouts, innit
If you are on the side of Putin, you really need to rethink your views on "Woke".
It's almost certain that he is on the wrong side of the argument. Listen to your daughters.
Yeah on the one hand you have extrajudicial killing of LGBT folk. But he rides a horse topless, so something something masculinity something. Bet you feel stupid now.
Sunak may have had a pretty shonky first 24hours of election campaign but I think the “Inauspicious Start Award” really has to go to the SNP. Swinney confirms they need to find money to fund campaign, goes out to bat for Michael Mathieson & Operation Branchform gets an update.
Does punk normally feature an interminable guitar solo like that? Sounds more like shit 70s hard rock to me - having some drunk guy shout along to it doesn't make it punk!
Rishi gives SKS a 25 point start as he fires the gun (according to YG)
I don't think anyone really believes the LDs will get 9%. Very likely to get at least the 11.6% they polled last time imo.
What would be truly enjoyable would be the Liberals outperforming their polling under FPP, given their endless mithering about PR. Perhaps it’s possible, with tactical voting?
Just been pondering the 1906 election where the Tories lost nearly 250 seats. In that election their leader suffered a 22.5% swing to lose his seat. Suspect that given current polling numbers this election is the best shot of something similar occurring again to have come along in a while.
Yeah, I've been thinking about 1906 a bit, too. Was the last election where the Liberals won an outright majority before being gradually replaced by the Labour Party over the next 18 years and was just 8 years before WW1.
Pretty seismic election.
Indeed. I’m not exactly expecting anything on that scale, nor the slow death of the Labour Party in subsequent decades but odd things can occur in elections.
Just been pondering the 1906 election where the Tories lost nearly 250 seats. In that election their leader suffered a 22.5% swing to lose his seat. Suspect that given current polling numbers this election is the best shot of something similar occurring again to have come along in a while.
Yeah, I've been thinking about 1906 a bit, too. Was the last election where the Liberals won an outright majority before being gradually replaced by the Labour Party over the next 18 years and was just 8 years before WW1.
Pretty seismic election.
The issues in play weren't too dissimilar, either - food prices, trade policy, immigration. Though I'm not sure that Braverman & co quite compare to the Hughligans!
I'm already shitting myself about the 10pm SJC exit poll.
Anyone else feel the same?
I'm going to book the Friday off as leave, but I don't know whether to go away somewhere isolated for a long weekend and hide from the result, or to treat it like an all-night Eurovision-style event.
Stewart - nor me - are saying we want a negotiated settlement in Russia/Ukraine, only that is the most realistic thing that will happen at this stage. I don't think any serious person honestly believes at this stage that this war will end unless that happens.
It's not what I want - and I am happy to be called an appeaser by the usual people, fine - but I don't think pointing out a realistic outcome is a bad thing.
A negotiated settlement is further away now than at any point in the war. The most likely outcome is that the war simply continues, at least for another year, exact timescale depending on the result of the US election and other choices.
What exactly do you think the outcome of the war will be, at some point in the future? You either think Russia will win and take everything, Ukraine will win and take everything, something in the middle or the war will go on forever - but that's surely not a sustainable.
What do you think the outcome will be?
Worst case scenario Ukraine collapses under incessant Russian pressure. Best case scenario Putin dies/ is murdered and Russia pulls back. Mid scenario both parties realise the price is just too high and seek a compromise.
At the moment I would probably put these 40:40:20. I don’t think either the Russians or the Ukrainians are anywhere near the third option. They might get there yet but it’s a long way off.
She's a Minister until tomorrow, and I'm interested that it came out *after* the election was announced afaics.
She remains the Minister. Famously the ministers that dealt with the EU immediately after the 2010 election were the Labour ones, because the Coalition had not yet been formed and could not appoint replacements.
The clue is in the Queen's instruction to her new Prime Minister: "form a government". The old government remains in place until then. Sunak will remain PM until the King appoints Starmer to be the new PM on July 5th. Sunak's ministers will remain in place until Starmer appoints their replacements.
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https://x.com/Cat_Headley/status/1793681941423702309
Anyone else feel the same?
NEW THREAD
Best case scenario Putin dies/ is murdered and Russia pulls back.
Mid scenario both parties realise the price is just too high and seek a compromise.
At the moment I would probably put these 40:40:20.
I don’t think either the Russians or the Ukrainians are anywhere near the third option. They might get there yet but it’s a long way off.
It is in a section of the Politics Home website called "The House". Is that what used to be the magazine, or deliberately near-branding?
"Let's take cycling out of the culture wars."
https://www.politicshome.com/thehouse/article/lets-take-cycling-culture-wars
She's a Minister until tomorrow, and I'm interested that it came out *after* the election was announced afaics.
Rishi Sunak willing to debate the Labour leader every week of the election campaign to prove his opponent has no plan
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/05/23/tories-keir-starmer-record-six-tv-debates-general-election/ (£££)
The clue is in the Queen's instruction to her new Prime Minister: "form a government". The old government remains in place until then. Sunak will remain PM until the King appoints Starmer to be the new PM on July 5th. Sunak's ministers will remain in place until Starmer appoints their replacements.