The Last Laugh: Might Corbyn outpoll Starmer? – politicalbetting.com
The Last Laugh: Might Corbyn outpoll Starmer? – politicalbetting.com
Labour activists may never stop arguing about 2017. Was it an almost-victory prevented only by centrist sabotage or a dead cat bounce which proved Jeremy Corbyn couldn’t even beat ‘The Maybot’ with several lucky breaks?
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Stewart - nor me - are saying we want a negotiated settlement in Russia/Ukraine, only that is the most realistic thing that will happen at this stage. I don't think any serious person honestly believes at this stage that this war will end unless that happens.
It's not what I want - and I am happy to be called an appeaser by the usual people, fine - but I don't think pointing out a realistic outcome is a bad thing.
Norwich North - Lab gain
Norwich South (my constituency) - Lab Hold, Greens second
NW Nofollk - Con Hold
SW Norfolk (Truss) - Con Hold
Mid Norfolk - Con Hold
South Norfolk - Lab Gain
Broadland and Fakenham - Toss up Lab/Con lean Con
Great Yarmouth - Toss up Lab/Con lean Lab
North Norfolk - Toss up LD/Con lean LD
Waveney Valley- Con win (new seat)
I now consider myself well-informed.
And thank you @Quincel for a great header.
I mean, Blair got fewer votes in his 2001 landslide than Kinnock in his 1992 defeat. The only thing that mattered is he got enough of the votes cast in the seats where it counted - the rest is trivia.
That would be six TV debates, a record.
Source close to Sunak tells me: “We will do as many as we can get. We will do one every week if he wants.”
https://x.com/benrileysmith/status/1793606332811264456
- I) Our current ruling classes have no tie to the physical United Kingdom, either living in other countries (Andrew Neil, Stanley Johnson, David Miliband, Nick Clegg) or wanting to (Rishi Sunak). It does not matter to them in the UK is shit
- II) Enshittification. Having taken on large debt from foreign powers, the UK has to be forced to grow to service that debt
- III) Distance of the political class from the working class, as previously discussed
- IV) Cargo-cult management of abstractions. By becoming reliant on indicators on a screen they attempt to tune the economy to those indicators, whilst neglecting the things that really matter to people.
- V) other stuff I forgot
So they don't know how to run an economy, consider their clients to be foreigners not the locals, don't know the locals enough to assess anyway, and will fuck off when it becomes too difficult.I could throw this into a PowerPoint if you'd like.
I know you’re keen to grasp any straw you can but I don’t think Labour will give the faintest fig about esoteric stats so long as they secure a decent majority.
In 2005 Tony Blair won a 66 seat majority on a 35.4% share.
In 2010 Cameron became PM on a 36.2% share
In 2015 he won a majority on 36.9%
… and so it goes on.
IF Labour win this time there are bound to be some quirks in the stats of various kinds. We have a first past the post system in this country. It is what it is and whoever plays it correctly and wins a majority, wins. After that, the rest is froth.
Casino Royale will not be able to explain why because he, like a few of the last rump of the right, are trying desperately to grasp at straws on what looks, at this stage, like an inevitable drubbing.
And of course, there will always be edge cases, see attempts at raising the minimum salary required for a visa. And again every politician folds immediately. Sunak's £35k a year policy got binned within weeks.
Casino is of the right, I don't think doesn't pretend he isn't and posts from that perspective. I am of the centre/centre left, I post from that perspective. It's when people try and imply they are impartial that I get a bit baffled.
Rishi Sunak, the day after perhaps the most botched election announcement of all time, is currently visiting a brewery in South Wales.
Because apparently there weren't enough jokes.
What do you think the outcome will be?
There is something pretty rotten - we know - in the state of the Conservatives' candidate list, but I suspect the same is true of Labour and Lib Dems.
I do not doubt this view will prevail to a degree within labour. It has been the political consensus since 1997.
(Though each of those conflicts was different from the others in various respects.)
For now, Ukraine does not wish to give in to Putin - which is what a deal now would require. And that's not going to happen unless the west actively forces them to do so.
It's pretty well meaningless to say that a negotiated settlement is the most realistic outcome, as that's true of the vast majority of conflicts. What we're arguing about is what happens before that.
@skysarahjane
Owner of The Canopy Kitchen Michelle Cook says...
🏫 Schools
📈 Cost of living
🩺 NHS
https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1793608635358060975
The fertility rate crashes. 18 years later, a hole needs to be plugged. So you simply import people to replace those who were never born.
Those people primarily move to the big cities. Instead of even growth across the country, the working age population concentrates in a few hot spots. There isn't enough housing in those spots to go around, so no one has kids... and so on.
No one knows what SKS will be like as PM, should he be elected. He is just as likely to surprise on the upside as the opposite. It’s desperation to find solace in this.
The war cannot go on forever can it? The money will run out at some point. Do you think they'll be fighting for decades? What's your timeline?
Besides anything else Theresa May was still more popular than Corbyn. Starmer will not be less popular than Sunak.
Set aside the questions of procedural correctness. This is just terrible politics. The ordinary voter is going to see this as Swinney protecting his mate. Six weeks out from a general election, it’s hard to fathom how this will help already struggling SNP MPs.
Also how many SPAD's and pals of the leader get parachuted into safe seats.
8/1 less than 2017
50/1 less than 2019
Rishi Sunak taking a brave approach to small talk at a brewery in Wales.
He asked workers if they're looking forward to 'all the football'. One quickly pointed out that Wales haven't qualified for the Euros 😬
Calamitous FMQs for John Swinney. Immediately after his extraordinary decision to back Michael Matheson, he repeats the thoroughly debunked claim that 100% of electricity consumption in Scotland is from renewable sources. This is unambiguously false.
https://x.com/staylorish/status/1793608427522187740
Starmer does not need to debate Sunak or anyone. He is in pole position after all. Sunak has nothing to lose.
TL;DR I think a lot more people vote on practical issues than their core ideology than you might think.
@Dylan_Difford
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51m
The disproportionate number of 2019 Con -> Don't Knows (13%, vs 5% Lab) in current polls should provide room for a small poll boost for the Tories. Based on previous pre-campaign BES waves, we can see about half return home. Such a pattern today would close Labour's lead by 3pts.
https://x.com/Dylan_Difford
British employees working from the beach face shock tax bills
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/british-employees-working-from-the-beach-face-shock-tax-bills/ar-BB1mQKzq
They either win, or they lose; how long that takes is largely down to us. Unless Putin simply gives up, which seems highly unlikely.
https://x.com/BylineTimes/status/1793603212630769816
Could they have started this campaign worse?
Pass the popcorn.
Reform to stand in 630 seats.
Is there anyone who thinks this, or something approaching it, will actually occur?
The CCHQ response to that is to show him interacting with a fake voter
Yes, people will register this. Yes, they will care.
Offshore wind worked because of streamlining the process in a common sense manner. If you have all the reports on wrecks, fishery impact etc lined up, then it goes through is a sensible amount of time.
The screaming from the Enquiristas, on this, is rarely heard. I did enjoy talking to a chap who specialised in such enquiries - according to him, multi year enquires are a human right. Well, given that he was paid by the hour....
Amusing.
"I do not give, or even attend, many public lectures, but I have noticed that, whenever I do, there is always someone present who, during the question-and-answer session afterward, makes a speech that he is determined to deliver and was obviously prepared long before the lecture whether or not it be relevant to whatever the lecturer has said. Often the moderator has to recall him to the fact that he is supposed to be asking a question, at which point (depending on the forcefulness of the moderator’s personality) he either continues as before or asks a brief and banal question that he could just as well have asked without all that he has previously said. Such a person is obviously a lecturer manqué: At some level in his mind, he thinks that he should really have been the one giving the lecture, not the lecturer, a poor creature by comparison with himself."
https://shorturl.at/Cinrv
175-200 I think is their range.
Also, it's something as a topic I find interesting and something which we lag behind our competitors significantly. As a driver of productivity it's a big one.
I know others here don't care much about it but I do.
@KevinASchofield
·
3h
The Conservatives' strategy is to put Rishi Sunak front and centre of a presidential-style campaign.
That's certainly bold, given his poor personal ratings.
https://x.com/KevinASchofield/status/1793552183923003545
So far the West hadn't done enough to support Ukraine to achieve victory. Russia is still producing more artillery shells than the West. Russia is still importing Western components for its missiles via third countries. Russia is still selling its oil to the West via third countries.
I think that the West has within its power the potential to produce more war material, of a higher quality than Russia. This would enable Ukraine to win the war, and to win the war with fewer casualties the better the equipment provided to Ukraine.
The West can also do more diplomatically to hinder Russian trade, and to deter Chinese support.
But this is a choice. It's a choice that, despite a lot of rhetoric, the West hasn't yet made. Depending on the outcome of the elections in the US, the choice might be to reduce Western support, and Ukraine would then slide to a slow and costly defeat.
I hope for better choices that would free all of Ukraine from Russian occupation, and teach China a lesson about the willingness of the West to defend fellow democracies - a lesson that is very relevant when the Chinese armed forces are today surrounding Taiwan with a military exercise as a "punishment" for their choice of President.
I'm on.
For example if people hate masts, the simple solution is allow taller masts to be built and you need fewer of them. In the EU our requirements on mast height are still amongst the most restrictive, especially in urban areas.
I think within the urban environment, frankly if an MNO wants to build a mast they should be allowed to assuming they do something like paint it green. But rejecting masts really is too common a practice and then people complain about poor provision.
There it is.
Literally day one of the campaign, failing to organise a piss-up in a brewery.
There aren't many rational reasons so, in the absence of that, it will attract a mix of those who do it out of public duty, but quiet a few more oddballs and narcissists - and those who think they can make it work for them.
What is weird about Sunak is his family background was fairly normal upto 16 (pretty much same as Starmer), but he is mow clearly massively detached from normal life.
Messy on Rishi Sunak's legacy smoking ban
It's not included in bills confirmed for wash up so far, so may well die
But govt sources insist they are still pressing to get it through
Reports of ministers begging Labour to help pass it
To fit timetable of election PM called
Like IPSOS for instance: https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2024-04/ipsos-uk-issues-index-april-2024-charts.pdf
Immigration was named as an issue by almost 60% of the public in 2015.
In April 2024 it was named by 24% of the public.
Three quarters of the country are keeping calm and carrying on.