Leon Posts: 47,914 3:07PM edited 3:08PM A friend of mine with some political connections says Yes there will be an election in July, and it will be announced around 5pm, before the news at 6
He sometimes gets things wildly wrong, and sometimes nails things completely
Westminster rumour mill in overdrive that Sunak is about to call election for July 4.
Its interesting that it actually leaked a couple of days ago, with Fink saying he had heard this, but nobody could actually believe it and put it down to silly season.
Nearly three in five Americans wrongly believe the US is in an economic recession, and the majority blame the Biden administration, according to a Harris poll conducted exclusively for the Guardian. The survey found persistent pessimism about the economy as election day draws closer.
The poll highlighted many misconceptions people have about the economy, including:
55% believe the economy is shrinking, and 56% think the US is experiencing a recession, though the broadest measure of the economy, gross domestic product (GDP), has been growing. 49% believe the S&P 500 stock market index is down for the year, though the index went up about 24% in 2023 and is up more than 12% this year. 49% believe that unemployment is at a 50-year high, though the unemployment rate has been under 4%, a near 50-year low.
49% of Democrats think the USA is currently in recession. 61% of Democrats think that inflation is currently increasing.
Apparently there's a 'vibecession' phenomenon.
Now this might be the fault of Sleepy Joe - or Trump or Brexit - or it might just be that people's expectations are increasing faster than which any government can meet.
And likely happening in other Western countries as well.
People are still shocked by the big price increases post COVID. A lot of people are saying “I can’t afford to do X anymore”.
This is how most people measure prosperity.
I posted a chart from WSJ the other day that showed increase in family wealth is now 0% over the Biden presidency and heading downwards rapidly. Those who hold assets are doing well, those who don't have lost a huge amount of buying power.
I recall - yes, that exactly.
For a large number of people - they’ve had some pay rises. But everything is murderously expensive.
Sunak has been offered a job he can't refuse, but they need him to start in September. So here we go, snap election, get demolished, a nice holiday and away to California.
Why else would he go now?
Is he really going to piss everyone off and take a job with a Silicon Valley tech company.
Yes, I can exclusively reveal Rishi will be taking up a modelling job in Silicon Valley. It will involve him being scanned in intimate detail and being transformed into a cheerful grinning AI helperbot, to be known as "Neddy the Helpful Nerd".
It's possible that Sunak has seen that something even WORSE is coming down the line, and wants to get out of the way?
Who knows, but if SKS is there in July the mood in PB starts to change. A short honeymoon and then the fun starts,
PB has been spending an inordinate amount of time rubbishing Sunak. Ive done it myself and slammed the Tories for being useless.
However the assumption that SKS is automatically going to be better than Sunak is just mad. PB has given little to no scrutiny to Starmer, and people like myself who say he needs to be put through the mill get criticised by the rose tinted mob. While were all patting ourselves on the back on how clever we are, nobody has done any serious due diligence on SKS.
There is a real chance that Starmer is just the same as Sunak but without the interesting bits. Theres also a chance that he;s worse a kind of UK Olaf Scholz - cometh the hour there is no man. He could be better but his lack of principles doesn't show much evidence of that. He's an establishment man.
So roll on December and we might have a clue at what he is able to do meanwhile buy popcorn before he bans it.
Yes, I agree. I fully expect the Labour government to be tremendously mediocre. I mean, look at them: Rachel Reeves, David Lammy, sweet Jesus. I'd be worried if they were governors at my daughters' schools, let alone running an entire country
But who knows. They might surprise on the upside. For the sake of my country, I hope so. Meanwhile if they screw everything up, even worse than the Tories, we can at least have the pleasure of laughing at them
FWIW I do think they will get a honeymoon, but it won't last long. A year max, and then the backlash will begin
Im on a shorter period, too many "events".
I think they'll last longer than that. They'll inherit a much more benign situation than many imagine: inflation returning to pre-covid levels*, falling energy prices, an economy is much better health than it's painted. Some stability implied by a government with a working majority and five years to go. The SNP on the wane for now. A happy broadcast media. They'll try to stuff it up, but Starmer is no Corbyn even if he did sit on his front bench, and there's only so much damage that politicians can do in the short term if there is a generally fair wind blowing. I give them a whole term of never being more than 5 points behind in the polls.
*which reminds me, @BartholomewRoberts was always on about inflation falling back again - I haven't seen him recently - is he still around?
Benign? It's the worst economic inheritance since WW2. And the state of the country's public assets is absolutely dire, everything needs fixing.
Even inflation is only temporarily down to 2.3% - the fall in energy prices 12 months ago will push it back up above 3% by August. That and the fact that there is literally nothing there to fund a pre-election Autumn giveaway is why he is going now.
Youve just spent years saying everything the Tories have done is rubbish and how Labour would do it all so much better.
Leon Posts: 47,914 3:07PM edited 3:08PM A friend of mine with some political connections says Yes there will be an election in July, and it will be announced around 5pm, before the news at 6
He sometimes gets things wildly wrong, and sometimes nails things completely
Yes, you are important, and we all love you. Now go back to bed.
Just havin a bit of fun, like
However it is true to say that my friend really nailed this, down to the timing of the announcement, so I believe that he does have a contact in Downing St. However, he won't have one for long....
This sort of stuff is where political contacts are useful. They are less useful in situations like the 48 hours after the London election (not you I hasten to add) where all sort of “well placed” shite turned out to be…shite…
Maybe not... she's got another 2 days to go - and the last day will be the most obviously inflammatory (postmasters reps asking questions - so will likely be much more directly confrontational judging from the experience of previous witnesses)
Yes, Beer and friends strive relentlessly to tease outthe facts, but the Postmasters' reps are generally happy just to call the witnesses bastards.
Nearly three in five Americans wrongly believe the US is in an economic recession, and the majority blame the Biden administration, according to a Harris poll conducted exclusively for the Guardian. The survey found persistent pessimism about the economy as election day draws closer.
The poll highlighted many misconceptions people have about the economy, including:
55% believe the economy is shrinking, and 56% think the US is experiencing a recession, though the broadest measure of the economy, gross domestic product (GDP), has been growing. 49% believe the S&P 500 stock market index is down for the year, though the index went up about 24% in 2023 and is up more than 12% this year. 49% believe that unemployment is at a 50-year high, though the unemployment rate has been under 4%, a near 50-year low.
49% of Democrats think the USA is currently in recession. 61% of Democrats think that inflation is currently increasing.
Apparently there's a 'vibecession' phenomenon.
Now this might be the fault of Sleepy Joe - or Trump or Brexit - or it might just be that people's expectations are increasing faster than which any government can meet.
And likely happening in other Western countries as well.
People are still shocked by the big price increases post COVID. A lot of people are saying “I can’t afford to do X anymore”.
This is how most people measure prosperity.
I posted a chart from WSJ the other day that showed increase in family wealth is now 0% over the Biden presidency and heading downwards rapidly. Those who hold assets are doing well, those who don't have lost a huge amount of buying power.
I recall - yes, that exactly.
For a large number of people - they’ve had some pay rises. But everything is murderously expensive.
And people are still occasionally being surprised by price rises on infrequently-bought items. It'll take another year for people to stop feeling that they're being ripped off every time they go shopping...
It's possible that Sunak has seen that something even WORSE is coming down the line, and wants to get out of the way?
Who knows, but if SKS is there in July the mood in PB starts to change. A short honeymoon and then the fun starts,
PB has been spending an inordinate amount of time rubbishing Sunak. Ive done it myself and slammed the Tories for being useless.
However the assumption that SKS is automatically going to be better than Sunak is just mad. PB has given little to no scrutiny to Starmer, and people like myself who say he needs to be put through the mill get criticised by the rose tinted mob. While were all patting ourselves on the back on how clever we are, nobody has done any serious due diligence on SKS.
There is a real chance that Starmer is just the same as Sunak but without the interesting bits. Theres also a chance that he;s worse a kind of UK Olaf Scholz - cometh the hour there is no man. He could be better but his lack of principles doesn't show much evidence of that. He's an establishment man.
So roll on December and we might have a clue at what he is able to do meanwhile buy popcorn before he bans it.
Yes, I agree. I fully expect the Labour government to be tremendously mediocre. I mean, look at them: Rachel Reeves, David Lammy, sweet Jesus. I'd be worried if they were governors at my daughters' schools, let alone running an entire country
But who knows. They might surprise on the upside. For the sake of my country, I hope so. Meanwhile if they screw everything up, even worse than the Tories, we can at least have the pleasure of laughing at them
FWIW I do think they will get a honeymoon, but it won't last long. A year max, and then the backlash will begin
Im on a shorter period, too many "events".
I think they'll last longer than that. They'll inherit a much more benign situation than many imagine: inflation returning to pre-covid levels*, falling energy prices, an economy is much better health than it's painted. Some stability implied by a government with a working majority and five years to go. The SNP on the wane for now. A happy broadcast media. They'll try to stuff it up, but Starmer is no Corbyn even if he did sit on his front bench, and there's only so much damage that politicians can do in the short term if there is a generally fair wind blowing. I give them a whole term of never being more than 5 points behind in the polls.
*which reminds me, @BartholomewRoberts was always on about inflation falling back again - I haven't seen him recently - is he still around?
Benign? It's the worst economic inheritance since WW2. And the state of the country's public assets is absolutely dire, everything needs fixing.
Even inflation is only temporarily down to 2.3% - the fall in energy prices 12 months ago will push it back up above 3% by August. That and the fact that there is literally nothing there to fund a pre-election Autumn giveaway is why he is going now.
The economy will likely grow pretty smartly till the end of the decade. It doesn't matter if inflation is running at 3% if wage rises are running at 5-6%.
The whole period from February 2020 to Autumn 2023 was abnormal, not normal. Growth is normal.
It's possible that Sunak has seen that something even WORSE is coming down the line, and wants to get out of the way?
Who knows, but if SKS is there in July the mood in PB starts to change. A short honeymoon and then the fun starts,
PB has been spending an inordinate amount of time rubbishing Sunak. Ive done it myself and slammed the Tories for being useless.
However the assumption that SKS is automatically going to be better than Sunak is just mad. PB has given little to no scrutiny to Starmer, and people like myself who say he needs to be put through the mill get criticised by the rose tinted mob. While were all patting ourselves on the back on how clever we are, nobody has done any serious due diligence on SKS.
There is a real chance that Starmer is just the same as Sunak but without the interesting bits. Theres also a chance that he;s worse a kind of UK Olaf Scholz - cometh the hour there is no man. He could be better but his lack of principles doesn't show much evidence of that. He's an establishment man.
So roll on December and we might have a clue at what he is able to do meanwhile buy popcorn before he bans it.
Yes, I agree. I fully expect the Labour government to be tremendously mediocre. I mean, look at them: Rachel Reeves, David Lammy, sweet Jesus. I'd be worried if they were governors at my daughters' schools, let alone running an entire country
But who knows. They might surprise on the upside. For the sake of my country, I hope so. Meanwhile if they screw everything up, even worse than the Tories, we can at least have the pleasure of laughing at them
FWIW I do think they will get a honeymoon, but it won't last long. A year max, and then the backlash will begin
Im on a shorter period, too many "events".
I think they'll last longer than that. They'll inherit a much more benign situation than many imagine: inflation returning to pre-covid levels*, falling energy prices, an economy is much better health than it's painted. Some stability implied by a government with a working majority and five years to go. The SNP on the wane for now. A happy broadcast media. They'll try to stuff it up, but Starmer is no Corbyn even if he did sit on his front bench, and there's only so much damage that politicians can do in the short term if there is a generally fair wind blowing. I give them a whole term of never being more than 5 points behind in the polls.
*which reminds me, @BartholomewRoberts was always on about inflation falling back again - I haven't seen him recently - is he still around?
Benign? It's the worst economic inheritance since WW2. And the state of the country's public assets is absolutely dire, everything needs fixing.
Even inflation is only temporarily down to 2.3% - the fall in energy prices 12 months ago will push it back up above 3% by August. That and the fact that there is literally nothing there to fund a pre-election Autumn giveaway is why he is going now.
Youve just spent years saying everything the Tories have done is rubbish and how Labour would do it all so much better.
The only other thing I’d say is I have a feeling it would have been far worse for him if he’d waited til October. Maybe his advisors and private pollsters were saying the same thing to him. I don’t expect anything other than a shellacking, but maybe he’ll be able to save 200 seats. If it was left to the last possible moment, I think it could have been much worse.
A big step closer to an electoral sanity 'slap' across the Tory party's face and hopefully an eventual return of the David Gauke, Rory Stewart types - I hope.
Nearly three in five Americans wrongly believe the US is in an economic recession, and the majority blame the Biden administration, according to a Harris poll conducted exclusively for the Guardian. The survey found persistent pessimism about the economy as election day draws closer.
The poll highlighted many misconceptions people have about the economy, including:
55% believe the economy is shrinking, and 56% think the US is experiencing a recession, though the broadest measure of the economy, gross domestic product (GDP), has been growing. 49% believe the S&P 500 stock market index is down for the year, though the index went up about 24% in 2023 and is up more than 12% this year. 49% believe that unemployment is at a 50-year high, though the unemployment rate has been under 4%, a near 50-year low.
49% of Democrats think the USA is currently in recession. 61% of Democrats think that inflation is currently increasing.
Apparently there's a 'vibecession' phenomenon.
Now this might be the fault of Sleepy Joe - or Trump or Brexit - or it might just be that people's expectations are increasing faster than which any government can meet.
And likely happening in other Western countries as well.
People are still shocked by the big price increases post COVID. A lot of people are saying “I can’t afford to do X anymore”.
This is how most people measure prosperity.
Saying it doesn't necessarily make it true.
There are pay rises to go with the price rises.
Not to mention asset value rises - firstly housing and now shares/pensions.
But it does seem increasingly common for people to be claiming poverty even when they are certainly getting richer.
Similarly every oldie seems to think that their pensions increase is "all being taken back through tax" or that their increased winter fuel allowance 'doesn't count'.
I, at least, will admit to never having been as affluent as I am today.
Remarkable to think that the last General Election was: 2019 - before Covid, before Ukraine, before Gaza, before Brexit was actually DONE. And Corbyn was the Labour candidate
A big step closer to an electoral sanity 'slap' across the Tory party's face and hopefully an eventual return of the David Gauke, Rory Stewart types - I hope.
yes the type of people who end up as directors in the PO or managing blood transfusions. Just what we need.
In more important news we've got some classic bank holiday weather coming our way in London - thunder on Sunday, nothing but rain on Monday. Yet some people claim there isn't a conspiracy controlling our weather?
Leon Posts: 47,914 3:07PM edited 3:08PM A friend of mine with some political connections says Yes there will be an election in July, and it will be announced around 5pm, before the news at 6
He sometimes gets things wildly wrong, and sometimes nails things completely
Westminster rumour mill in overdrive that Sunak is about to call election for July 4.
Everybody’s been speculating about it all day. We don’t need to invent imaginary insiders to make our speculation sound retrospectively more significant.
July election does seem bizarre doesn't it? If he wanted to get it over and done with early (and I don't blame him for that) why not do it on the day of the local elections?
He could probably have saved a couple of hundred Con Councillors?
Students at home in July perhaps.
Robert Hayward on LBC saying the polls are more in line with locals i.e between 7% and 9% Labour lead.
Just got my overseas vote registration in. Rather dissapointingly, the website insists on going with the last place you registered to vote rather than the last place you lived in the UK. Turned my vote from being in a somewhat marginal seat (at least in 2019, probably safe Labour today) to a totally safe seat vote.
Oh, and before Rishi thinks this is one more for his tally because I'm an overseas voter...Nope.
Nearly three in five Americans wrongly believe the US is in an economic recession, and the majority blame the Biden administration, according to a Harris poll conducted exclusively for the Guardian. The survey found persistent pessimism about the economy as election day draws closer.
The poll highlighted many misconceptions people have about the economy, including:
55% believe the economy is shrinking, and 56% think the US is experiencing a recession, though the broadest measure of the economy, gross domestic product (GDP), has been growing. 49% believe the S&P 500 stock market index is down for the year, though the index went up about 24% in 2023 and is up more than 12% this year. 49% believe that unemployment is at a 50-year high, though the unemployment rate has been under 4%, a near 50-year low.
49% of Democrats think the USA is currently in recession. 61% of Democrats think that inflation is currently increasing.
Apparently there's a 'vibecession' phenomenon.
Now this might be the fault of Sleepy Joe - or Trump or Brexit - or it might just be that people's expectations are increasing faster than which any government can meet.
And likely happening in other Western countries as well.
People are still shocked by the big price increases post COVID. A lot of people are saying “I can’t afford to do X anymore”.
This is how most people measure prosperity.
Saying it doesn't necessarily make it true.
There are pay rises to go with the price rises.
Not to mention asset value rises - firstly housing and now shares/pensions.
But it does seem increasingly common for people to be claiming poverty even when they are certainly getting richer.
Similarly every oldie seems to think that their pensions increase is "all being taken back through tax" or that their increased winter fuel allowance 'doesn't count'.
I, at least, will admit to never having been as affluent as I am today.
I'm definitely poorer than I was five years ago, and struggle more to get through the month more than I did. My salary has increased quite a lot, but my outgoings have increased by more, and inflation means that the capital I have is worth less. My house is worth more but given that I will always want to live in a house this doesn't feel like wealth which does me any good whatsoever.
It's kids' activities which are killing me. I rarely go out, I have quite basic requirements in clothing, I don't have a mortgage. Food has gone up but has actually started coming down again. But kids' activities are just going up and up and up and up. And because of working from home they have the opportunity to do so many more of them.
Again, its worth pointing out that a return of inflation to pre-covid levels doesn't mean a return of prices to pre-covid levels.
July election does seem bizarre doesn't it? If he wanted to get it over and done with early (and I don't blame him for that) why not do it on the day of the local elections?
He could probably have saved a couple of hundred Con Councillors?
Students at home in July perhaps.
Robert Hayward on LBC saying the polls are more in line with locals i.e between 7% and 9% Labour lead.
90% of callers to LBC sticking with the Tories.
I have a bad feeling...
It’s not really a “bad feeling”. You have been predicting a Tory win on here for as long as I can remember. It’s your prediction. Stick with it or say it’s all based on “feels”. Either way come up with something better than “90% of calls to LBC”. Sure, theTories might win, but you need to present more cogent evidence than a funny feeling in your water and 1992.
I finished uni a week ago. All I wanted to do this summer was drink M&S cocktails in fields before embarking on 50 years of soul destroying work with little disposable income, followed by an overdue and likely impoverished retirement.
A big step closer to an electoral sanity 'slap' across the Tory party's face and hopefully an eventual return of the David Gauke, Rory Stewart types - I hope.
Speaking of Rory, there will be an emergency The Rest Is Politics at 5.30 and I dare say most other politics podcasts and news programmes as well. So long as they do not interfere with the Masterchef final at 8pm.
Statement from Number 10: "We have Sunak. If you want to see him again, send us £1000 in used fivers. If you don't want to see him again, send £1,000,000."
The first UK general election to be held in July since 1945
Could be quite the echo.
It's interesting how Autumn GEs have fallen out of favour. They were the most common time to hold a GE in the first 2/3rds of the 20th century but we haven't had once since 1974.
Comments
For a large number of people - they’ve had some pay rises. But everything is murderously expensive.
Nows your big chance,
The whole period from February 2020 to Autumn 2023 was abnormal, not normal. Growth is normal.
The issue is whether people will feel better.
https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/may/22/uk-general-election-july-2024-sunak-starmer-senior-sources-say-uk-politics-live-news
BBC live
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-69042935
The statement is to be inside Downing Street
Wales Westminster VI (18-19 May):
Labour 43% (+3)
Conservatives 19% (+1)
Reform UK 15% (-3)
Plaid Cymru 14% (–)
Green 6% (+2)
Liberal Democrat 3% (-3)
Other 1% (+1)
Changes +/- 22-23 April
Welsh poll porn to kick us off
There are pay rises to go with the price rises.
Not to mention asset value rises - firstly housing and now shares/pensions.
But it does seem increasingly common for people to be claiming poverty even when they are certainly getting richer.
Similarly every oldie seems to think that their pensions increase is "all being taken back through tax" or that their increased winter fuel allowance 'doesn't count'.
I, at least, will admit to never having been as affluent as I am today.
It feels like a lifetime ago
Paywall: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/a-summer-election-is-suicide-for-the-tories/
Free: https://archive.is/payxh
https://x.com/paulhutcheon/status/1793230921769832583
90% of callers to LBC sticking with the Tories.
I have a bad feeling...
Thanks Rishi.
Oooh, same day as a potential England last 16 match at Euro 2024.
Oh, and before Rishi thinks this is one more for his tally because I'm an overseas voter...Nope.
It's kids' activities which are killing me. I rarely go out, I have quite basic requirements in clothing, I don't have a mortgage. Food has gone up but has actually started coming down again. But kids' activities are just going up and up and up and up. And because of working from home they have the opportunity to do so many more of them.
Again, its worth pointing out that a return of inflation to pre-covid levels doesn't mean a return of prices to pre-covid levels.
I wonder if Michael Watson will do a Comey and charge Rayner before the election.
Or it did until you edited it.
Now even that has seemingly been taken away.
https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1793276777428644010?s=61&t=zKbRKoZtYWU8Dmpp8GlX6Q
"We have Sunak. If you want to see him again, send us £1000 in used fivers. If you don't want to see him again, send £1,000,000."
I almost feel a bit sorry for him.