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MRP benchmarks and assorted thoughts – politicalbetting.com

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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,502
    DougSeal said:

    Can someone point me to why we think Hall is going to win London before I put a fiver on it? Has there been word from one of the camps or some sort of quasi-exit polling?

    Motivation and low turnout.

    If everyone had to vote Khan would win easily. But Khan's voters are a bit meh about him, whereas the anti-Khan brigade are quite enraged.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    IanB2 said:

    Interesting that Curtice’s preliminary analysis suggests a swing of just 1% Tory to Labour since last May, yet according to national VI the Tories have fallen from high 20s% then to barely above 20% now.

    Perhaps suggests the polling needs a bit of recalibration. Probably the more churn there is in VI the harder it becomes to be certain about any given level of support. Put another way, maybe there is a statistical MoE and a circumstantial one and the Tories are shedding votes in so many directions that there is increased likelihood of a polling miss in specifics but not overall shape etc
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,251
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I don't know, sorry. Got woken up by various bits ouching and am a bit frazzled. Am not really capable of interpreting low signal/noise data. Will make more sense in morning. Intended Hall bet as shits-n-giggles bet. Apols if stupid. ☹️
    It's not necessarily a stupid idea depending on what this chatter is based on, assuming it is based on anything at all.
    It was coming from all parties shortly after 10, presumably as their election workers got back to base.

    There’s been shock results before, will be shock results again, it’s not that big a deal.

    Would mean though that rather than a flash in the plan, Uxbridge was a beacon to a Tory mayor victory.
    The Ulez furore was at its height and has since somewhat abated.

    Anecdote. My bro’ who lives in outer London was furious about ulez and with Sadiq. Doesn’t much like him and, at the time, said he would never vote for him again.

    Yesterday he voted for Sadiq Khan.
    I have to shake my head at anybody who looks at Susan Hall and thinks that would be good for our city. Ulez or not, she comes across as profoundly incompetent. Typical populist: all emotion and division, zero governance or implementation. It would have been a disaster for London.
    Yes that was essentially my brother’s view. Doesn’t much like Khan but thinks Susan Hall was an abysmal tory selection.
    Who cares what your brother thinks?
    Her Mum?

    Come on CR, lighten up. It's springtime! [Looks out of window and decides to go back to bed.]
    She pisses me off. And should have much more respect.

    My take is, actually, that's she's a very young Labour activist that is desperate to be taken seriously. In the absence of experience and knowledge, she just has enthusiasm and so makes stuff up and plays the man when it's something she doesn't want to hear.
    I think you’re far too emotionally invested in me tbh. It comes across as slightly unhinged. You do tend to fly off the handle, not just with me, very readily?

    Just tone it down and don’t let me ‘piss you off’. We’re all entitled to varying viewpoints on here and it’s what enriches this place. There really isn’t any need to get so personal or personally vexed about it.

    xx
    I fly off the handle due to your posts accusing me of trying to move the market for my own personal gain. I fly off the handle due to your attacks on my integrity.

    You then cry blue murder and run for the hills when you're called out on it.

    What you post isn't a viewpoint, it's personal ad hominem and you can entirely expect a negative reaction if you consider in that vein.

    Think about it.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,080
    edited May 3

    IanB2 said:

    Interesting that Curtice’s preliminary analysis suggests a swing of just 1% Tory to Labour since last May, yet according to national VI the Tories have fallen from high 20s% then to barely above 20% now.

    We come back to Reform, of course. The Tory vote slide in recent months has been losing votes to Reform. Reform are doing well in these elections, when they stand, but they’re more often not standing. Does that explain the difference? Reform voters will return to the Tories if there’s no Reform candidate? I presume the psephologists will be able to crunch the numbers in due course and say more.
    Yes, that’s astute and surely it. Reform aren’t standing in most council elections. I don’t think most Reform voters will ‘return’ as their vote comes from all over and nowhere, but there is undoubtedly an element of Tories using it as a protest, where they can. The question is whether their attitude in the coming GE will still be one of protest, or whether the two-party choice will push many of them back.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,251
    IanB2 said:

    Interesting that Curtice’s preliminary analysis suggests a swing of just 1% Tory to Labour since last May, yet according to national VI the Tories have fallen from high 20s% then to barely above 20% now.

    Hmm. That's interesting.

    One to watch.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,559
    I remember delivering leaflets for the Greens in Exeter over a decade ago, and we couldn't manage to make the breakthrough to win a single council seat. So I'm delighted to see them up to 7 seats on the council now, adding an extra councillor, and with some strong second places in other wards.
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,340
    edited May 3
    DougSeal said:

    Can someone point me to why we think Hall is going to win London before I put a fiver on it? Has there been word from one of the camps or some sort of quasi-exit polling?

    Some of it seems to driven by this:

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.


    https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1786147033314717907

    Though not this:

    Another CCHQ source gets in touch to dispute any claim that they are “chipper”.

    They are also much more cautious about the London mayoral result.

    https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1786150982579065118

    Leaving aside what it says about the polling, Hall winning London against the national swing would make her the greatest retail politician of our age. It would be even more impressive than Boris's wins. Especially if it happens with Street going backwards.

    That feels like a helluva claim.

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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,043
    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @robfordmancs
    Tony Blair achieved four 20 point plus swings from Cons when he was opposition leader - Starmer has now achieved five - including four of the top 5 largest ever, all achieved in the last year


    Yep I’m pretty convinced now that it will be 1997 Redux
    I am beginning to think that Starmer may outdo Blair. He maybe shedding votes to the Greens in a few safe seats but the Lab vote is becoming very efficiently distributed for FPTP. Coupled with the implosion of the SNP he could well be on for a record GE swing.
    ...The Conservative Marc Jones was re-elected as Police and Crime Commissioner for Lincolnshire for a third term.

    But the party's vote share fell by 23% with Labour up 10% and Reform increasing by 11%, beating the Lib Dems into third.
    ..

    Cumbria also 20% plus I think, with Labour winning.
    Cumbria PCC Election Result:

    🌹 LAB: 47.4% (+21.3)
    🌳 CON: 30.4% (-23.2)
    🔶 LDM: 22.2% (+1.8)

    Labour GAIN from Conservative.
    Changes w/ 2021.


    Though hard to say much with such low turnout elections except that Lab voters are keener to turnout than Con.
    The argument for Ben Houchen remaining Tees Valley mayor is that Labour voters won’t go out but his will.

    I think it’s a matter of waiting and seeing as all places will have local factors
    Labour need to pull off a Blackpool South to defeat Houchen - a 45% gap between Con and Lab last time. Its certainly possible as we keep getting those kinds of swings, but I expect the Lord Houchen of I'll Sue to hold on.

    As I understand it the Labour campaign has been positive about them and the area, and opted not to go for the jugular over Teesport despite the obvious massive corruption involved.

    Local media is in the Tories pocket - a symbiotic relationship between lazy hacks and a teesside Tory spin machine happy to hand out sweeties. Problem is that whilst Houchen will survive to face the NAO and Police, nobody else will. They will lose the PCC and lose every single MP they have.

    If HY et al want to claim that as a win, please do so. We all need a good laugh.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,520
    I kind of wish I were a young Labour activist. It must be an exciting time.

    Whilst I’m a mom of an older teenage lad, I don’t really feel I can nail my colours to one party mast. Imho no party has a monopoly of truth, or right and wrong in policies. I’d like to see a more consensual, less confrontational, approach. I really quite liked the coalition Gov’t for that reason. It all seemed a lot more gentle back then, even if some reason that the seeds of decline were being sown.

    Labour will make mistakes and if I can still be bothered to post on this place, which feels increasingly to me like a male bear pit, then I will be very ready to critique them.

    The Conservatives will come back because there is always a place for a centre-right party in the UK but it may not be for a very long time.

    Have a nice day all. I’m off to RHS Wisley to go smell some roses and wisteria.

    xx
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,951

    DougSeal said:

    Can someone point me to why we think Hall is going to win London before I put a fiver on it? Has there been word from one of the camps or some sort of quasi-exit polling?

    Motivation and low turnout.

    If everyone had to vote Khan would win easily. But Khan's voters are a bit meh about him, whereas the anti-Khan brigade are quite enraged.
    Cool. Sounds overwhelming. I’ve just put a sizeable sum on Hall.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,000

    DougSeal said:

    Can someone point me to why we think Hall is going to win London before I put a fiver on it? Has there been word from one of the camps or some sort of quasi-exit polling?

    Motivation and low turnout.

    If everyone had to vote Khan would win easily. But Khan's voters are a bit meh about him, whereas the anti-Khan brigade are quite enraged.
    Though not all the anti-Khan brigade will vote Hall.

    Not those who think Lab too soft on Israel for example.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,169

    DougSeal said:

    Can someone point me to why we think Hall is going to win London before I put a fiver on it? Has there been word from one of the camps or some sort of quasi-exit polling?

    Motivation and low turnout.

    If everyone had to vote Khan would win easily. But Khan's voters are a bit meh about him, whereas the anti-Khan brigade are quite enraged.

    Exactly.

    Ironically, if Hall does scrape home it will probably mean an even worse London GE result for the Tories than otherwise would be the case as it will be the biggest wake-up call possible for the anti-Tory majority.

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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,080

    I remember delivering leaflets for the Greens in Exeter over a decade ago, and we couldn't manage to make the breakthrough to win a single council seat. So I'm delighted to see them up to 7 seats on the council now, adding an extra councillor, and with some strong second places in other wards.

    Sometimes it’s difficult to recognise when you’ve been holding others back?
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,043
    Dura_Ace said:

    Focus group of one anecdata. The old woman from down the lane (the one who had to move in with us for a while and the same one whose piles exploded in the back of my F80) hates Rishi ("eyes like a schoolgirl") and loved Boris ("there was just something about him"). She flirted with voting Fukker but in the end didn't and voted tory.

    She has had some sort of chest infection that has been slowly killing her since January. GP appointments are phone only available 14 days hence with somebody whose English language skills are roughly the same as the punkah wallah in It Aint' Half Hot, Mum. She doesn't think Labour can sort this out because SKS is "stupid". She might be isam's gran.

    There will still be turkeys voting for Christmas. Dying. Can't see a GP. So lets vote Tory obviously because that stupid Starmer might make it bad so that you can't see a GP...
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,251

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I wouldn't be backing Khan at 1.05 - that's certainly not value.

    He should probably be at 1.25 to 1.3 based on current information.
    I'm no Khan fan, but he's a lot better than an 80% chance to hold on
    I'm not sure based on current information.
    “Current information” = please save my bet
    The concept of a value loser is clearly alien to you.
    A bet on Susan Hall is just a regular loser.

    You’ve just berated Heathener for not providing any analysis. What’s your analysis for Hall having a better chance than a snowball in Hell?
    I have provided my analysis upthread. This isn't a prediction of what will happen but a scenario of how it credibly could happen. Heatherner responded with ad hominem, because that's all she has, and it's rather interesting you row in behind her on it rather than look at what i said.

    Elsewhere in this thread there a few rumours from campaign sources on Twitter (admittedly these may be unfounded) and Khan's campaign was releasing late messages to drive turnout in his core base yesterday - not usually a sign of confidence the incumbent is going to knock it out the park. There is some evidence of much wider MoE in mayoral polling, Bailey ran it much closer than expected last time despite being a poor candidate, and voter behaviour can be more focused on individuals (either positively or negatively) rather than on party.

    The concept of a value loser is that you expect to lose the bet but you still make it because the price doesn't match the real odds of it happening. Over time, and a portfolio of bets, some will come right and you will be in profit.

    Do I think Susan Hall will win? No. Am I still happy to put a bet on because I think she has a greater than 5% chance? Yes.

    Stranger bets have come in before and I have the scars on my back from missing out by, in the past, adopting the same logic as you.
    My apologies that I missed your earlier reasoning. Lots to catch up on! I don’t find your reasoning persuasive.

    Every poll since October 2023 has had Khan ahead by *more* than the polling error when Bailey stood, I believe. (Every poll has had Khan winning, except a September 2023 poll with a hypothetical Corbyn candidacy.) Bailey may not have been the best candidate, but he was better than Hall.

    Khan’s campaign has, indeed, been routinely saying it’s a close election. It serves their purposes to drive up turnout in their base because of the Assembly elections where, given a proportional system, every counts towards more Labour seats. That’s why they’re saying it.

    Khan won comfortably in 2021 (on first preferences and after the transfer of second preferences) when the Tories were riding high in the polls. The Tories are now plumbing the depths in the polls. Why would London show a swing to the Tories compared to the large swing to Labour nationally?

    ID requirements have been mooted as benefitting Hall. ID requirements don’t seem to have blunted Labour’s performance in Blackpool South or council elections or PCC elections.

    One tweet from “campaign sources” is not persuasive. Khan will beat Hall. (I voted for neither and have no bets on the result.)
    Thanks. We shall see. Khan only got 40% last time, and hasn't got more popular since, so the bet I'm most pleased about is 22/1 on his voteshare being between 35-40%.

    I laid Khan at 1.03 with £10 because of the prospective profit on that, which I can easily afford in the headroom, and just in case there is a huge upset - which I can just about conceive happening, although unlikely.

    It could easily be Khan wins 39% to Hall on 28%. Or Khan on 41% to Hall on 30% (darn). Or Khan on 38% to Hall on 35%.

    Maybe, just maybe, there is a Hall on 36.5% and Khan on 36.5% nail biter too, but although very unlikely it's not impossible.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,251
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Redditch and Thurrock going to Labour

    Really interesting how well Labour are doing in Leave voting areas

    DM_Andy said:

    Penny Watch: Out of the seven wards in Portsmouth North, six have declared and the Tories haven't won any, all three defences so far lost (though their best seat from 2021 is the one outstanding). The benefit is going to the Portsmouth Independent Party, adding Copnor, Cosham and Hilsea to the Paulsgrove seat they already had.

    She’s in trouble, isn’t she?

    There might be a few in CCHQ who will be happy about it. Going on manoeuvres against an incumbent doesn’t go down well.
    No, I don't think she's in trouble. I expect her to comfortably hold her seat at the GE based on the polling.
    Ooooh I rarely do this but let’s stop all this bickering between us and go to a bet?

    I’m not betting much because I prefer going through bookies but £10 straight 50:50 win or lose Penny Mordaunt. Do we have a deal?
    No, because I don't trust you. I will make a constituency bet though and share the details on here.
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,131
    Avon & Somerset PCC was close:

    Benet Allen (Liberal Democrat) - 45,864
    Katy Grant (Green) - 64,623
    Clare Moody (Labour) - 95,982
    Mark Shelford (Conservative) - 91,006
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,951

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I don't know, sorry. Got woken up by various bits ouching and am a bit frazzled. Am not really capable of interpreting low signal/noise data. Will make more sense in morning. Intended Hall bet as shits-n-giggles bet. Apols if stupid. ☹️
    It's not necessarily a stupid idea depending on what this chatter is based on, assuming it is based on anything at all.
    It was coming from all parties shortly after 10, presumably as their election workers got back to base.

    There’s been shock results before, will be shock results again, it’s not that big a deal.

    Would mean though that rather than a flash in the plan, Uxbridge was a beacon to a Tory mayor victory.
    The Ulez furore was at its height and has since somewhat abated.

    Anecdote. My bro’ who lives in outer London was furious about ulez and with Sadiq. Doesn’t much like him and, at the time, said he would never vote for him again.

    Yesterday he voted for Sadiq Khan.
    I have to shake my head at anybody who looks at Susan Hall and thinks that would be good for our city. Ulez or not, she comes across as profoundly incompetent. Typical populist: all emotion and division, zero governance or implementation. It would have been a disaster for London.
    Yes that was essentially my brother’s view. Doesn’t much like Khan but thinks Susan Hall was an abysmal tory selection.
    Who cares what your brother thinks?
    Her Mum?

    Come on CR, lighten up. It's springtime! [Looks out of window and decides to go back to bed.]
    She pisses me off. And should have much more respect.

    My take is, actually, that's she's a very young Labour activist that is desperate to be taken seriously. In the absence of experience and knowledge, she just has enthusiasm and so makes stuff up and plays the man when it's something she doesn't want to hear.
    I think you’re far too emotionally invested in me tbh. It comes across as slightly unhinged. You do tend to fly off the handle, not just with me, very readily?

    Just tone it down and don’t let me ‘piss you off’. We’re all entitled to varying viewpoints on here and it’s what enriches this place. There really isn’t any need to get so personal or personally vexed about it.

    xx
    I fly off the handle due to your posts accusing me of trying to move the market for my own personal gain. I fly off the handle due to your attacks on my integrity.

    You then cry blue murder and run for the hills when you're called out on it.

    What you post isn't a viewpoint, it's personal ad hominem and you can entirely expect a negative reaction if you consider in that vein.

    Think about it.

    TBF telling a young woman, hardly an abundant type here, that she needs to show more “respect” will invite some adverse comment. A bit unfortunate but there you are.
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    CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 399
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,559

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I wouldn't be backing Khan at 1.05 - that's certainly not value.

    He should probably be at 1.25 to 1.3 based on current information.
    I'm no Khan fan, but he's a lot better than an 80% chance to hold on
    I'm not sure based on current information.
    “Current information” = please save my bet
    The concept of a value loser is clearly alien to you.
    A bet on Susan Hall is just a regular loser.

    You’ve just berated Heathener for not providing any analysis. What’s your analysis for Hall having a better chance than a snowball in Hell?
    Casino talked about how the Tory candidate out-performed the polls in 2021, and what the polls looked like this time around. Did you look at those numbers?

    In 2021, the closest poll had the Tory 12% behind on first preferences and 18% in the second round. In the end the margin was 4.7% and 10.4% - a miss by nearly 8pp.

    This time, the closest poll has the Tory candidate 13% behind. If that's out by 8pp again then the margin would be 5% - not the blowout win that most people are expecting. The polls might be more accurate this time, or they might be less accurate, but there is prima facie evidence to think that odds of 1.03 for Khan are a bit absurd.
    Polling errors are usually not in the same direction from election to election, because the pollsters try to fix them. But if you believe the same will happen… sure, you can do the maths and you still get a Khan win! For Hall to win, you need a considerably larger polling error, one that seems unprecedented.
    Yes, that's reasonable. The result that makes most sense, intuitively, is that the error is as large, but in the other direction, and so Labour have a huge win.

    But there have been so many unprecedented changes since 2021 that I wouldn't be surprised by another one. It's not like I'm arguing a Hall win is likely, but I can see how it is plausible, I can see the elements that would stack up to make it happen - polling error, Gaza, Khan, ULEZ, FPTP, low enthusiasm for Labour.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,251
    Heathener said:

    I kind of wish I were a young Labour activist. It must be an exciting time.

    Whilst I’m a mom of an older teenage lad, I don’t really feel I can nail my colours to one party mast.

    Have a nice day all. I’m off to RHS Wisley to go smell some roses and wisteria.

    xx

    This is just brilliant. Truly wonderful.

    Applause. At least you've made me laugh!
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,520
    CR I am, with good reason, innately suspicious of people who post on betting sites some apparently esoteric gnostic insider knowledge when I know full well they are personally invested in the result and have a vested interest. Especially when it’s on the spreads.

    You did once literally tell me to “fuck off from this site for 48 hours” for precisely the reason that you were invested in a bet and didn’t want the market spooked. So I have some reason from past information to doubt your motives in ramping up Susan Hall this time. If you pause for thought I think you would acknowledge that as an acceptable comment even if you are not, on this occasion, doing so.

    I’ll leave it there and wish you all a lovely day.

    xx
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,251

    The polls are right. But it's actually worse than that for the Tories. The Labour + LibDem + Green vote is efficient, so anti-Tory tactical voting at the GE is in play big time. Unless something changes, and dramatically, the Tories are looking at a far, far worse result than 1997.

    On that, I agree.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,169
    Heathener said:

    I kind of wish I were a young Labour activist. It must be an exciting time.

    Whilst I’m a mom of an older teenage lad, I don’t really feel I can nail my colours to one party mast. Imho no party has a monopoly of truth, or right and wrong in policies. I’d like to see a more consensual, less confrontational, approach. I really quite liked the coalition Gov’t for that reason. It all seemed a lot more gentle back then, even if some reason that the seeds of decline were being sown.

    Labour will make mistakes and if I can still be bothered to post on this place, which feels increasingly to me like a male bear pit, then I will be very ready to critique them.

    The Conservatives will come back because there is always a place for a centre-right party in the UK but it may not be for a very long time.

    Have a nice day all. I’m off to RHS Wisley to go smell some roses and wisteria.

    xx

    The Tories will need to become a centre-right party again first, though.

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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,080

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I wouldn't be backing Khan at 1.05 - that's certainly not value.

    He should probably be at 1.25 to 1.3 based on current information.
    I'm no Khan fan, but he's a lot better than an 80% chance to hold on
    I'm not sure based on current information.
    “Current information” = please save my bet
    The concept of a value loser is clearly alien to you.
    A bet on Susan Hall is just a regular loser.

    You’ve just berated Heathener for not providing any analysis. What’s your analysis for Hall having a better chance than a snowball in Hell?
    Casino talked about how the Tory candidate out-performed the polls in 2021, and what the polls looked like this time around. Did you look at those numbers?

    In 2021, the closest poll had the Tory 12% behind on first preferences and 18% in the second round. In the end the margin was 4.7% and 10.4% - a miss by nearly 8pp.

    This time, the closest poll has the Tory candidate 13% behind. If that's out by 8pp again then the margin would be 5% - not the blowout win that most people are expecting. The polls might be more accurate this time, or they might be less accurate, but there is prima facie evidence to think that odds of 1.03 for Khan are a bit absurd.
    Polling errors are usually not in the same direction from election to election, because the pollsters try to fix them. But if you believe the same will happen… sure, you can do the maths and you still get a Khan win! For Hall to win, you need a considerably larger polling error, one that seems unprecedented.
    Yes, that's reasonable. The result that makes most sense, intuitively, is that the error is as large, but in the other direction, and so Labour have a huge win.

    But there have been so many unprecedented changes since 2021 that I wouldn't be surprised by another one. It's not like I'm arguing a Hall win is likely, but I can see how it is plausible, I can see the elements that would stack up to make it happen - polling error, Gaza, Khan, ULEZ, FPTP, low enthusiasm for Labour.
    Gaza’s the only credible one there; some sort of mass abstention by Labour voters due to its Middle East policy. But there’s been not much sign of this during the campaign, and Khan being Muslim himself is surely good Insurance?
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,520
    DougSeal said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I don't know, sorry. Got woken up by various bits ouching and am a bit frazzled. Am not really capable of interpreting low signal/noise data. Will make more sense in morning. Intended Hall bet as shits-n-giggles bet. Apols if stupid. ☹️
    It's not necessarily a stupid idea depending on what this chatter is based on, assuming it is based on anything at all.
    It was coming from all parties shortly after 10, presumably as their election workers got back to base.

    There’s been shock results before, will be shock results again, it’s not that big a deal.

    Would mean though that rather than a flash in the plan, Uxbridge was a beacon to a Tory mayor victory.
    The Ulez furore was at its height and has since somewhat abated.

    Anecdote. My bro’ who lives in outer London was furious about ulez and with Sadiq. Doesn’t much like him and, at the time, said he would never vote for him again.

    Yesterday he voted for Sadiq Khan.
    I have to shake my head at anybody who looks at Susan Hall and thinks that would be good for our city. Ulez or not, she comes across as profoundly incompetent. Typical populist: all emotion and division, zero governance or implementation. It would have been a disaster for London.
    Yes that was essentially my brother’s view. Doesn’t much like Khan but thinks Susan Hall was an abysmal tory selection.
    Who cares what your brother thinks?
    Her Mum?

    Come on CR, lighten up. It's springtime! [Looks out of window and decides to go back to bed.]
    She pisses me off. And should have much more respect.

    My take is, actually, that's she's a very young Labour activist that is desperate to be taken seriously. In the absence of experience and knowledge, she just has enthusiasm and so makes stuff up and plays the man when it's something she doesn't want to hear.
    I think you’re far too emotionally invested in me tbh. It comes across as slightly unhinged. You do tend to fly off the handle, not just with me, very readily?

    Just tone it down and don’t let me ‘piss you off’. We’re all entitled to varying viewpoints on here and it’s what enriches this place. There really isn’t any need to get so personal or personally vexed about it.

    xx
    I fly off the handle due to your posts accusing me of trying to move the market for my own personal gain. I fly off the handle due to your attacks on my integrity.

    You then cry blue murder and run for the hills when you're called out on it.

    What you post isn't a viewpoint, it's personal ad hominem and you can entirely expect a negative reaction if you consider in that vein.

    Think about it.

    TBF telling a young woman, hardly an abundant type here, that she needs to show more “respect” will invite some adverse comment. A bit unfortunate but there you are.
    Thanks.

    And you’re correct. I’ve tried publicising this place to friends but I think they feel pretty put off. The kind of male aggression from CR really isn’t going to attract more female input on the site.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,300
    edited May 3
    Heathener said:



    I’m not betting much because I prefer going through bookies but £10 straight 50:50 win or lose Penny Mordaunt. Do we have a deal?

    Captain Mordaunt, RNR must think she's going to keep her seat because she has already rigged stuns'sls and is trying to get the weather gage in the post Sunak leadership contest by writing an article in the Telegraph about how the tories, and only the tories, can be trusted on defence. Absolutely aimed at the (pacemaker assisted) heart of the tory membership.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,116
    DougSeal said:

    Can someone point me to why we think Hall is going to win London before I put a fiver on it? Has there been word from one of the camps or some sort of quasi-exit polling?

    My guess is it was expectations management by the Tories. They expected a grim Friday but as London Mayor isn't announced until Saturday, they were hoping speculation about a better result to come would get them through the Friday.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,000
    edited May 3

    Dura_Ace said:

    Focus group of one anecdata. The old woman from down the lane (the one who had to move in with us for a while and the same one whose piles exploded in the back of my F80) hates Rishi ("eyes like a schoolgirl") and loved Boris ("there was just something about him"). She flirted with voting Fukker but in the end didn't and voted tory.

    She has had some sort of chest infection that has been slowly killing her since January. GP appointments are phone only available 14 days hence with somebody whose English language skills are roughly the same as the punkah wallah in It Aint' Half Hot, Mum. She doesn't think Labour can sort this out because SKS is "stupid". She might be isam's gran.

    There will still be turkeys voting for Christmas. Dying. Can't see a GP. So lets vote Tory obviously because that stupid Starmer might make it bad so that you can't see a GP...
    The most extraordinary thing about the DHSC is that they have created an employment crisis for GP's during an election year when frustration with being able to see a GP is at an all time high. I really struggle to comprehend how deranged this is.

    https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/workforce/gp-salaried-roles-receive-over-40-applications-amid-employment-crisis/?utm_content=bufferaf7f5&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=pulsesocial
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105

    Heathener said:

    I kind of wish I were a young Labour activist. It must be an exciting time.

    Whilst I’m a mom of an older teenage lad, I don’t really feel I can nail my colours to one party mast. Imho no party has a monopoly of truth, or right and wrong in policies. I’d like to see a more consensual, less confrontational, approach. I really quite liked the coalition Gov’t for that reason. It all seemed a lot more gentle back then, even if some reason that the seeds of decline were being sown.

    Labour will make mistakes and if I can still be bothered to post on this place, which feels increasingly to me like a male bear pit, then I will be very ready to critique them.

    The Conservatives will come back because there is always a place for a centre-right party in the UK but it may not be for a very long time.

    Have a nice day all. I’m off to RHS Wisley to go smell some roses and wisteria.

    xx

    The Tories will need to become a centre-right party again first, though.

    Evidence since the 80s suggests that parties do move to the centre in order to regain power but only having spent a decade flogging the dead horse of their particular brand of extremism.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,502
    Foxy said:

    DougSeal said:

    Can someone point me to why we think Hall is going to win London before I put a fiver on it? Has there been word from one of the camps or some sort of quasi-exit polling?

    Motivation and low turnout.

    If everyone had to vote Khan would win easily. But Khan's voters are a bit meh about him, whereas the anti-Khan brigade are quite enraged.
    Though not all the anti-Khan brigade will vote Hall.

    Not those who think Lab too soft on Israel for example.
    Sure, I don't think anyone bar Hall's inner core circle is arguing she is favourite (her outer core circle probably disagrees or they would have just said her core circle). Just that 20-25/1 for a plausible result tends to be value in modern politics.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,370
    Heathener said:

    DougSeal said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I don't know, sorry. Got woken up by various bits ouching and am a bit frazzled. Am not really capable of interpreting low signal/noise data. Will make more sense in morning. Intended Hall bet as shits-n-giggles bet. Apols if stupid. ☹️
    It's not necessarily a stupid idea depending on what this chatter is based on, assuming it is based on anything at all.
    It was coming from all parties shortly after 10, presumably as their election workers got back to base.

    There’s been shock results before, will be shock results again, it’s not that big a deal.

    Would mean though that rather than a flash in the plan, Uxbridge was a beacon to a Tory mayor victory.
    The Ulez furore was at its height and has since somewhat abated.

    Anecdote. My bro’ who lives in outer London was furious about ulez and with Sadiq. Doesn’t much like him and, at the time, said he would never vote for him again.

    Yesterday he voted for Sadiq Khan.
    I have to shake my head at anybody who looks at Susan Hall and thinks that would be good for our city. Ulez or not, she comes across as profoundly incompetent. Typical populist: all emotion and division, zero governance or implementation. It would have been a disaster for London.
    Yes that was essentially my brother’s view. Doesn’t much like Khan but thinks Susan Hall was an abysmal tory selection.
    Who cares what your brother thinks?
    Her Mum?

    Come on CR, lighten up. It's springtime! [Looks out of window and decides to go back to bed.]
    She pisses me off. And should have much more respect.

    My take is, actually, that's she's a very young Labour activist that is desperate to be taken seriously. In the absence of experience and knowledge, she just has enthusiasm and so makes stuff up and plays the man when it's something she doesn't want to hear.
    I think you’re far too emotionally invested in me tbh. It comes across as slightly unhinged. You do tend to fly off the handle, not just with me, very readily?

    Just tone it down and don’t let me ‘piss you off’. We’re all entitled to varying viewpoints on here and it’s what enriches this place. There really isn’t any need to get so personal or personally vexed about it.

    xx
    I fly off the handle due to your posts accusing me of trying to move the market for my own personal gain. I fly off the handle due to your attacks on my integrity.

    You then cry blue murder and run for the hills when you're called out on it.

    What you post isn't a viewpoint, it's personal ad hominem and you can entirely expect a negative reaction if you consider in that vein.

    Think about it.

    TBF telling a young woman, hardly an abundant type here, that she needs to show more “respect” will invite some adverse comment. A bit unfortunate but there you are.
    Thanks.

    And you’re correct. I’ve tried publicising this place to friends but I think they feel pretty put off. The kind of male aggression from CR really isn’t going to attract more female input on the site.
    Maybe they dont come on the site because theyre trying to avoid you ?
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,748
    So it looks as though the Conservatives are getting the expected - and deserved - trouncing.

    I haven't been following it closely this morning - are there any bright spots for the blue team?
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,999
    I tally that Labour got 78 more votes than the Tories in Harlow, but just failed to flip the seat count.

    With the constituency also taking in about 13000 voters from Epping Forest and Saffron Walden, I suspect this is still ultra tight in a GE, but the Tories should start as very narrow favourites.

    This is exactly the sort of constituency we should be looking at for the GE: my favoured comparator for the coming election is a reverse 2019 result, down to a lot of Labour's gains being in mid to large southern towns, both those that Blair held and numerous that have never been red.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,065
    IanB2 said:

    Labour LOSE Oldham to NOC - evidence of a mixed picture despite the huge swings elsewhere. Gaza.

    I think this is what is scaring Khan. If they have lost a significant part of the Muslim vote he just might be in trouble. Hard to imagine when the general picture is like this though. And that Muslim vote certainly won't have voted Tory.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,080
    Heathener said:

    DougSeal said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I don't know, sorry. Got woken up by various bits ouching and am a bit frazzled. Am not really capable of interpreting low signal/noise data. Will make more sense in morning. Intended Hall bet as shits-n-giggles bet. Apols if stupid. ☹️
    It's not necessarily a stupid idea depending on what this chatter is based on, assuming it is based on anything at all.
    It was coming from all parties shortly after 10, presumably as their election workers got back to base.

    There’s been shock results before, will be shock results again, it’s not that big a deal.

    Would mean though that rather than a flash in the plan, Uxbridge was a beacon to a Tory mayor victory.
    The Ulez furore was at its height and has since somewhat abated.

    Anecdote. My bro’ who lives in outer London was furious about ulez and with Sadiq. Doesn’t much like him and, at the time, said he would never vote for him again.

    Yesterday he voted for Sadiq Khan.
    I have to shake my head at anybody who looks at Susan Hall and thinks that would be good for our city. Ulez or not, she comes across as profoundly incompetent. Typical populist: all emotion and division, zero governance or implementation. It would have been a disaster for London.
    Yes that was essentially my brother’s view. Doesn’t much like Khan but thinks Susan Hall was an abysmal tory selection.
    Who cares what your brother thinks?
    Her Mum?

    Come on CR, lighten up. It's springtime! [Looks out of window and decides to go back to bed.]
    She pisses me off. And should have much more respect.

    My take is, actually, that's she's a very young Labour activist that is desperate to be taken seriously. In the absence of experience and knowledge, she just has enthusiasm and so makes stuff up and plays the man when it's something she doesn't want to hear.
    I think you’re far too emotionally invested in me tbh. It comes across as slightly unhinged. You do tend to fly off the handle, not just with me, very readily?

    Just tone it down and don’t let me ‘piss you off’. We’re all entitled to varying viewpoints on here and it’s what enriches this place. There really isn’t any need to get so personal or personally vexed about it.

    xx
    I fly off the handle due to your posts accusing me of trying to move the market for my own personal gain. I fly off the handle due to your attacks on my integrity.

    You then cry blue murder and run for the hills when you're called out on it.

    What you post isn't a viewpoint, it's personal ad hominem and you can entirely expect a negative reaction if you consider in that vein.

    Think about it.

    TBF telling a young woman, hardly an abundant type here, that she needs to show more “respect” will invite some adverse comment. A bit unfortunate but there you are.
    Thanks.

    And you’re correct. I’ve tried publicising this place to friends but I think they feel pretty put off. The kind of male aggression from CR really isn’t going to attract more female input on the site.
    A shame, since being so geographically dispersed, this would make a good meeting place for you all.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,502

    Heathener said:

    DougSeal said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I don't know, sorry. Got woken up by various bits ouching and am a bit frazzled. Am not really capable of interpreting low signal/noise data. Will make more sense in morning. Intended Hall bet as shits-n-giggles bet. Apols if stupid. ☹️
    It's not necessarily a stupid idea depending on what this chatter is based on, assuming it is based on anything at all.
    It was coming from all parties shortly after 10, presumably as their election workers got back to base.

    There’s been shock results before, will be shock results again, it’s not that big a deal.

    Would mean though that rather than a flash in the plan, Uxbridge was a beacon to a Tory mayor victory.
    The Ulez furore was at its height and has since somewhat abated.

    Anecdote. My bro’ who lives in outer London was furious about ulez and with Sadiq. Doesn’t much like him and, at the time, said he would never vote for him again.

    Yesterday he voted for Sadiq Khan.
    I have to shake my head at anybody who looks at Susan Hall and thinks that would be good for our city. Ulez or not, she comes across as profoundly incompetent. Typical populist: all emotion and division, zero governance or implementation. It would have been a disaster for London.
    Yes that was essentially my brother’s view. Doesn’t much like Khan but thinks Susan Hall was an abysmal tory selection.
    Who cares what your brother thinks?
    Her Mum?

    Come on CR, lighten up. It's springtime! [Looks out of window and decides to go back to bed.]
    She pisses me off. And should have much more respect.

    My take is, actually, that's she's a very young Labour activist that is desperate to be taken seriously. In the absence of experience and knowledge, she just has enthusiasm and so makes stuff up and plays the man when it's something she doesn't want to hear.
    I think you’re far too emotionally invested in me tbh. It comes across as slightly unhinged. You do tend to fly off the handle, not just with me, very readily?

    Just tone it down and don’t let me ‘piss you off’. We’re all entitled to varying viewpoints on here and it’s what enriches this place. There really isn’t any need to get so personal or personally vexed about it.

    xx
    I fly off the handle due to your posts accusing me of trying to move the market for my own personal gain. I fly off the handle due to your attacks on my integrity.

    You then cry blue murder and run for the hills when you're called out on it.

    What you post isn't a viewpoint, it's personal ad hominem and you can entirely expect a negative reaction if you consider in that vein.

    Think about it.

    TBF telling a young woman, hardly an abundant type here, that she needs to show more “respect” will invite some adverse comment. A bit unfortunate but there you are.
    Thanks.

    And you’re correct. I’ve tried publicising this place to friends but I think they feel pretty put off. The kind of male aggression from CR really isn’t going to attract more female input on the site.
    Maybe they dont come on the site because theyre trying to avoid you ?
    We need a pb on the gram version. (For the traditional pb readership that is not gramophone by the way).
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,080

    So it looks as though the Conservatives are getting the expected - and deserved - trouncing.

    I haven't been following it closely this morning - are there any bright spots for the blue team?

    Harlow!
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,018

    Heathener said:

    I kind of wish I were a young Labour activist. It must be an exciting time.

    Whilst I’m a mom of an older teenage lad, I don’t really feel I can nail my colours to one party mast. Imho no party has a monopoly of truth, or right and wrong in policies. I’d like to see a more consensual, less confrontational, approach. I really quite liked the coalition Gov’t for that reason. It all seemed a lot more gentle back then, even if some reason that the seeds of decline were being sown.

    Labour will make mistakes and if I can still be bothered to post on this place, which feels increasingly to me like a male bear pit, then I will be very ready to critique them.

    The Conservatives will come back because there is always a place for a centre-right party in the UK but it may not be for a very long time.

    Have a nice day all. I’m off to RHS Wisley to go smell some roses and wisteria.

    xx

    The Tories will need to become a centre-right party again first, though.

    Quite. They've been a centre left party under Sunak so it would help attract voters like me back.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,080
    Mortimer said:

    Heathener said:

    I kind of wish I were a young Labour activist. It must be an exciting time.

    Whilst I’m a mom of an older teenage lad, I don’t really feel I can nail my colours to one party mast. Imho no party has a monopoly of truth, or right and wrong in policies. I’d like to see a more consensual, less confrontational, approach. I really quite liked the coalition Gov’t for that reason. It all seemed a lot more gentle back then, even if some reason that the seeds of decline were being sown.

    Labour will make mistakes and if I can still be bothered to post on this place, which feels increasingly to me like a male bear pit, then I will be very ready to critique them.

    The Conservatives will come back because there is always a place for a centre-right party in the UK but it may not be for a very long time.

    Have a nice day all. I’m off to RHS Wisley to go smell some roses and wisteria.

    xx

    The Tories will need to become a centre-right party again first, though.

    Quite. They've been a centre left party under Sunak so it would help attract voters like me back.
    Only, and arguably, in some aspects of economic policy. On social policy it’s been the opposite.

    It isn’t so long that we were being told that economically left/socially right was the unfilled political sweet spot.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,502
    Mortimer said:

    Heathener said:

    I kind of wish I were a young Labour activist. It must be an exciting time.

    Whilst I’m a mom of an older teenage lad, I don’t really feel I can nail my colours to one party mast. Imho no party has a monopoly of truth, or right and wrong in policies. I’d like to see a more consensual, less confrontational, approach. I really quite liked the coalition Gov’t for that reason. It all seemed a lot more gentle back then, even if some reason that the seeds of decline were being sown.

    Labour will make mistakes and if I can still be bothered to post on this place, which feels increasingly to me like a male bear pit, then I will be very ready to critique them.

    The Conservatives will come back because there is always a place for a centre-right party in the UK but it may not be for a very long time.

    Have a nice day all. I’m off to RHS Wisley to go smell some roses and wisteria.

    xx

    The Tories will need to become a centre-right party again first, though.

    Quite. They've been a centre left party under Sunak so it would help attract voters like me back.
    Nah, they are just rubbish and a touch schizophrenic. Say both right-right and centrist stuff (your centre left) but then fail to deliver on either but assume that no-one has noticed this.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,141

    So it looks as though the Conservatives are getting the expected - and deserved - trouncing.

    I haven't been following it closely this morning - are there any bright spots for the blue team?

    Just catching up but I was wondering what's the best result for Starmer - might it not be better for him if the Tories exceed expectations?

    Conversely if the Tories lose *really* badly:
    - Sunak gets dumped and Labour face a new leader - probably photogenic Mordaunt - with a new leader bounce
    - The GE gets pushed back to Dec/Jan
    - And Labour's support become complacent that it's 'in the bag'.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,018
    edited May 3
    IanB2 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Heathener said:

    I kind of wish I were a young Labour activist. It must be an exciting time.

    Whilst I’m a mom of an older teenage lad, I don’t really feel I can nail my colours to one party mast. Imho no party has a monopoly of truth, or right and wrong in policies. I’d like to see a more consensual, less confrontational, approach. I really quite liked the coalition Gov’t for that reason. It all seemed a lot more gentle back then, even if some reason that the seeds of decline were being sown.

    Labour will make mistakes and if I can still be bothered to post on this place, which feels increasingly to me like a male bear pit, then I will be very ready to critique them.

    The Conservatives will come back because there is always a place for a centre-right party in the UK but it may not be for a very long time.

    Have a nice day all. I’m off to RHS Wisley to go smell some roses and wisteria.

    xx

    The Tories will need to become a centre-right party again first, though.

    Quite. They've been a centre left party under Sunak so it would help attract voters like me back.
    Only, and arguably, in some aspects of economic policy. On social policy it’s been the opposite.

    It isn’t so long that we were being told that economically left/socially right was the unfilled political sweet spot.
    Until you absolutely screw the middle classes for tax during a time of inflation.

    Then you quite rightly get an electoral hammering.

    Edit to add: But actually how is the current 'social policy' right wing? Trying to limit illegal immigration and improve the efficiency of the HO isn't right wing. It was a key Blairite plank. Rowing back to c. 2010 on trans issues isn't right wing, it is just a useful corrective that the vast majority of the public seem to support.

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't there a push to decriminalise abortion entirely? Doesn't seem very right wing to me...

  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,370
    IanB2 said:

    Heathener said:

    DougSeal said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I don't know, sorry. Got woken up by various bits ouching and am a bit frazzled. Am not really capable of interpreting low signal/noise data. Will make more sense in morning. Intended Hall bet as shits-n-giggles bet. Apols if stupid. ☹️
    It's not necessarily a stupid idea depending on what this chatter is based on, assuming it is based on anything at all.
    It was coming from all parties shortly after 10, presumably as their election workers got back to base.

    There’s been shock results before, will be shock results again, it’s not that big a deal.

    Would mean though that rather than a flash in the plan, Uxbridge was a beacon to a Tory mayor victory.
    The Ulez furore was at its height and has since somewhat abated.

    Anecdote. My bro’ who lives in outer London was furious about ulez and with Sadiq. Doesn’t much like him and, at the time, said he would never vote for him again.

    Yesterday he voted for Sadiq Khan.
    I have to shake my head at anybody who looks at Susan Hall and thinks that would be good for our city. Ulez or not, she comes across as profoundly incompetent. Typical populist: all emotion and division, zero governance or implementation. It would have been a disaster for London.
    Yes that was essentially my brother’s view. Doesn’t much like Khan but thinks Susan Hall was an abysmal tory selection.
    Who cares what your brother thinks?
    Her Mum?

    Come on CR, lighten up. It's springtime! [Looks out of window and decides to go back to bed.]
    She pisses me off. And should have much more respect.

    My take is, actually, that's she's a very young Labour activist that is desperate to be taken seriously. In the absence of experience and knowledge, she just has enthusiasm and so makes stuff up and plays the man when it's something she doesn't want to hear.
    I think you’re far too emotionally invested in me tbh. It comes across as slightly unhinged. You do tend to fly off the handle, not just with me, very readily?

    Just tone it down and don’t let me ‘piss you off’. We’re all entitled to varying viewpoints on here and it’s what enriches this place. There really isn’t any need to get so personal or personally vexed about it.

    xx
    I fly off the handle due to your posts accusing me of trying to move the market for my own personal gain. I fly off the handle due to your attacks on my integrity.

    You then cry blue murder and run for the hills when you're called out on it.

    What you post isn't a viewpoint, it's personal ad hominem and you can entirely expect a negative reaction if you consider in that vein.

    Think about it.

    TBF telling a young woman, hardly an abundant type here, that she needs to show more “respect” will invite some adverse comment. A bit unfortunate but there you are.
    Thanks.

    And you’re correct. I’ve tried publicising this place to friends but I think they feel pretty put off. The kind of male aggression from CR really isn’t going to attract more female input on the site.
    A shame, since being so geographically dispersed, this would make a good meeting place for you all.
    One can only sympathise, it must be difficult getting Margot Leadbetter, Hyacinth Bucket and Sybil Fawlty all in one place.
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,371
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Looking at the London 2021 election results, and how Shaun Bailey overperformed, and the MoE in the polling then, it is conceivable that Khan is hovering between 37-38% of the vote and Hall on 35-36% of the vote, if turnout is very poor for him and she's got her vote out. YouGov polls keep overcooking Reform whereas Savanta and Redfield & Wilton had Hall in the low 30s just a few weeks ago.

    So, I can just about believe it's close. It's even conceivable it's very close.

    Frankly I think you are desperately grasping at straws and failing to read the mood.

    I may be wrong but I doubt it’s going to be anywhere near close in London
    I'm looking at the polls

    Well you are evidently aren’t. Most of the polls gave Khan c. 20% leads and then one comes along at c. 10% and you leap all over it as “evidence” that it’s neck-and-neck? I’m sorry but in betting terms this is myopic: seeing what one wants to and latching onto it.

    Susan Hall might win but on polling alone it cannot be much better than a c. 5% chance.
    You're clearly not capable of reading English.

    You really need to take it easy. I’ve seen you do this with a number of other people on here. It’s like some red mist descends.

    Go make yourself a cuppa and chill. It’s just a betting site. It’s only politics. And I’m just trying to reflect what I think is the state of play and, yep, I could be wrong.
    You've seen it before, yet you seem to want to provoke CR (which I'm sure he'll admit doesn't always take much). So why not admit that you enjoy the spat?
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,919
    edited May 3
    Pro_Rata said:

    I tally that Labour got 78 more votes than the Tories in Harlow, but just failed to flip the seat count.

    With the constituency also taking in about 13000 voters from Epping Forest and Saffron Walden, I suspect this is still ultra tight in a GE, but the Tories should start as very narrow favourites.

    This is exactly the sort of constituency we should be looking at for the GE: my favoured comparator for the coming election is a reverse 2019 result, down to a lot of Labour's gains being in mid to large southern towns, both those that Blair held and numerous that have never been red.

    Which is unlikely to ever change because I suspect the population of those mid to large southern towns is people renting who don't see any chance of owning a property unless they win the jackpot or their parent die early enough that a mortgage is still available to allow them to make up the difference.

    Remember that if 30-40% of you income is going on rent, you don't have any spare money to save for a deposit...
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,371
    IanB2 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Heathener said:

    I kind of wish I were a young Labour activist. It must be an exciting time.

    Whilst I’m a mom of an older teenage lad, I don’t really feel I can nail my colours to one party mast. Imho no party has a monopoly of truth, or right and wrong in policies. I’d like to see a more consensual, less confrontational, approach. I really quite liked the coalition Gov’t for that reason. It all seemed a lot more gentle back then, even if some reason that the seeds of decline were being sown.

    Labour will make mistakes and if I can still be bothered to post on this place, which feels increasingly to me like a male bear pit, then I will be very ready to critique them.

    The Conservatives will come back because there is always a place for a centre-right party in the UK but it may not be for a very long time.

    Have a nice day all. I’m off to RHS Wisley to go smell some roses and wisteria.

    xx

    The Tories will need to become a centre-right party again first, though.

    Quite. They've been a centre left party under Sunak so it would help attract voters like me back.
    Only, and arguably, in some aspects of economic policy. On social policy it’s been the opposite.

    It isn’t so long that we were being told that economically left/socially right was the unfilled political sweet spot.
    Hmm, well maybe it was unfilled, but in FPTP it doesn't get you very far. Or at least not the way the Conservatives have gone about it. Might work better from Opposition.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,748

    So it looks as though the Conservatives are getting the expected - and deserved - trouncing.

    I haven't been following it closely this morning - are there any bright spots for the blue team?

    Just catching up but I was wondering what's the best result for Starmer - might it not be better for him if the Tories exceed expectations?

    Conversely if the Tories lose *really* badly:
    - Sunak gets dumped and Labour face a new leader - probably photogenic Mordaunt - with a new leader bounce
    - The GE gets pushed back to Dec/Jan
    - And Labour's support become complacent that it's 'in the bag'.
    GOTV will be vital at the next GE, and Labour's biggest recruiting sergeant is the Conservatives. If people think the Conservatives stand no chance, they won't be as keen to vote as they would be if they think the Conservatives stand a chance.

    (I think the opposite happened in 2017 - some (not everyone) who voted for Corbyn's Labour did so thinking it was a 'safe' vote as he stood no chance. Then there was a certain amount of rebound in 2019, when people realised there was a chance that he might win.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,169
    Worth remembering that the last big anti-Tory wave flowed at its peak in a pre-online world and without the easy availability of very focused info on how best to utilise your anti-Tory vote.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,101
    ...

    Heathener said:

    DougSeal said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I don't know, sorry. Got woken up by various bits ouching and am a bit frazzled. Am not really capable of interpreting low signal/noise data. Will make more sense in morning. Intended Hall bet as shits-n-giggles bet. Apols if stupid. ☹️
    It's not necessarily a stupid idea depending on what this chatter is based on, assuming it is based on anything at all.
    It was coming from all parties shortly after 10, presumably as their election workers got back to base.

    There’s been shock results before, will be shock results again, it’s not that big a deal.

    Would mean though that rather than a flash in the plan, Uxbridge was a beacon to a Tory mayor victory.
    The Ulez furore was at its height and has since somewhat abated.

    Anecdote. My bro’ who lives in outer London was furious about ulez and with Sadiq. Doesn’t much like him and, at the time, said he would never vote for him again.

    Yesterday he voted for Sadiq Khan.
    I have to shake my head at anybody who looks at Susan Hall and thinks that would be good for our city. Ulez or not, she comes across as profoundly incompetent. Typical populist: all emotion and division, zero governance or implementation. It would have been a disaster for London.
    Yes that was essentially my brother’s view. Doesn’t much like Khan but thinks Susan Hall was an abysmal tory selection.
    Who cares what your brother thinks?
    Her Mum?

    Come on CR, lighten up. It's springtime! [Looks out of window and decides to go back to bed.]
    She pisses me off. And should have much more respect.

    My take is, actually, that's she's a very young Labour activist that is desperate to be taken seriously. In the absence of experience and knowledge, she just has enthusiasm and so makes stuff up and plays the man when it's something she doesn't want to hear.
    I think you’re far too emotionally invested in me tbh. It comes across as slightly unhinged. You do tend to fly off the handle, not just with me, very readily?

    Just tone it down and don’t let me ‘piss you off’. We’re all entitled to varying viewpoints on here and it’s what enriches this place. There really isn’t any need to get so personal or personally vexed about it.

    xx
    I fly off the handle due to your posts accusing me of trying to move the market for my own personal gain. I fly off the handle due to your attacks on my integrity.

    You then cry blue murder and run for the hills when you're called out on it.

    What you post isn't a viewpoint, it's personal ad hominem and you can entirely expect a negative reaction if you consider in that vein.

    Think about it.

    TBF telling a young woman, hardly an abundant type here, that she needs to show more “respect” will invite some adverse comment. A bit unfortunate but there you are.
    Thanks.

    And you’re correct. I’ve tried publicising this place to friends but I think they feel pretty put off. The kind of male aggression from CR really isn’t going to attract more female input on the site.
    Maybe they dont come on the site because theyre trying to avoid you ?
    Do you feel better now you've got that off your chest?

    How unnecessarily rude!
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,033
    edited May 3
    Dura_Ace said:

    Heathener said:



    I’m not betting much because I prefer going through bookies but £10 straight 50:50 win or lose Penny Mordaunt. Do we have a deal?

    Captain Mordaunt, RNR must think she's going to keep her seat because she has already rigged stuns'sls and is trying to get the weather gage in the post Sunak leadership contest by writing an article in the Telegraph about how the tories, and only the tories, can be trusted on defence. Absolutely aimed at the (pacemaker assisted) heart of the tory membership.
    As someone who has recently had a life saving pacemaker operation I find that remark very unnecessary not least because it is not a joking matter and if you think it is you need to speak to my family and friends over the worry they have been through this last 6 months
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,141
    Mortimer said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Heathener said:

    I kind of wish I were a young Labour activist. It must be an exciting time.

    Whilst I’m a mom of an older teenage lad, I don’t really feel I can nail my colours to one party mast. Imho no party has a monopoly of truth, or right and wrong in policies. I’d like to see a more consensual, less confrontational, approach. I really quite liked the coalition Gov’t for that reason. It all seemed a lot more gentle back then, even if some reason that the seeds of decline were being sown.

    Labour will make mistakes and if I can still be bothered to post on this place, which feels increasingly to me like a male bear pit, then I will be very ready to critique them.

    The Conservatives will come back because there is always a place for a centre-right party in the UK but it may not be for a very long time.

    Have a nice day all. I’m off to RHS Wisley to go smell some roses and wisteria.

    xx

    The Tories will need to become a centre-right party again first, though.

    Quite. They've been a centre left party under Sunak so it would help attract voters like me back.
    Only, and arguably, in some aspects of economic policy. On social policy it’s been the opposite.

    It isn’t so long that we were being told that economically left/socially right was the unfilled political sweet spot.
    Until you absolutely screw the middle classes for tax during a time of inflation.

    Then you quite rightly get an electoral hammering.

    Edit to add: But actually how is the current 'social policy' right wing? Trying to limit illegal immigration and improve the efficiency of the HO isn't right wing. It was a key Blairite plank. Rowing back to c. 2010 on trans issues isn't right wing, it is just a useful corrective that the vast majority of the public seem to support.

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't there a push to decriminalise abortion entirely? Doesn't seem very right wing to me...

    How about the proposals to criminalise homelessness or stop disability benefit for those with severe mental health issues?
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,403
    Good morning ladies, gentlemen, comrades and colleagues!
    Does that cover everyone?

    Looking at the results to date on the BBC I’m struck by the number of gains that Independents have made.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,370

    ...

    Heathener said:

    DougSeal said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I don't know, sorry. Got woken up by various bits ouching and am a bit frazzled. Am not really capable of interpreting low signal/noise data. Will make more sense in morning. Intended Hall bet as shits-n-giggles bet. Apols if stupid. ☹️
    It's not necessarily a stupid idea depending on what this chatter is based on, assuming it is based on anything at all.
    It was coming from all parties shortly after 10, presumably as their election workers got back to base.

    There’s been shock results before, will be shock results again, it’s not that big a deal.

    Would mean though that rather than a flash in the plan, Uxbridge was a beacon to a Tory mayor victory.
    The Ulez furore was at its height and has since somewhat abated.

    Anecdote. My bro’ who lives in outer London was furious about ulez and with Sadiq. Doesn’t much like him and, at the time, said he would never vote for him again.

    Yesterday he voted for Sadiq Khan.
    I have to shake my head at anybody who looks at Susan Hall and thinks that would be good for our city. Ulez or not, she comes across as profoundly incompetent. Typical populist: all emotion and division, zero governance or implementation. It would have been a disaster for London.
    Yes that was essentially my brother’s view. Doesn’t much like Khan but thinks Susan Hall was an abysmal tory selection.
    Who cares what your brother thinks?
    Her Mum?

    Come on CR, lighten up. It's springtime! [Looks out of window and decides to go back to bed.]
    She pisses me off. And should have much more respect.

    My take is, actually, that's she's a very young Labour activist that is desperate to be taken seriously. In the absence of experience and knowledge, she just has enthusiasm and so makes stuff up and plays the man when it's something she doesn't want to hear.
    I think you’re far too emotionally invested in me tbh. It comes across as slightly unhinged. You do tend to fly off the handle, not just with me, very readily?

    Just tone it down and don’t let me ‘piss you off’. We’re all entitled to varying viewpoints on here and it’s what enriches this place. There really isn’t any need to get so personal or personally vexed about it.

    xx
    I fly off the handle due to your posts accusing me of trying to move the market for my own personal gain. I fly off the handle due to your attacks on my integrity.

    You then cry blue murder and run for the hills when you're called out on it.

    What you post isn't a viewpoint, it's personal ad hominem and you can entirely expect a negative reaction if you consider in that vein.

    Think about it.

    TBF telling a young woman, hardly an abundant type here, that she needs to show more “respect” will invite some adverse comment. A bit unfortunate but there you are.
    Thanks.

    And you’re correct. I’ve tried publicising this place to friends but I think they feel pretty put off. The kind of male aggression from CR really isn’t going to attract more female input on the site.
    Maybe they dont come on the site because theyre trying to avoid you ?
    Do you feel better now you've got that off your chest?

    How unnecessarily rude!
    Rudeness has its place in society, its how we call people out.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,748

    Dura_Ace said:

    Heathener said:



    I’m not betting much because I prefer going through bookies but £10 straight 50:50 win or lose Penny Mordaunt. Do we have a deal?

    Captain Mordaunt, RNR must think she's going to keep her seat because she has already rigged stuns'sls and is trying to get the weather gage in the post Sunak leadership contest by writing an article in the Telegraph about how the tories, and only the tories, can be trusted on defence. Absolutely aimed at the (pacemaker assisted) heart of the tory membership.
    As someone who has recently had a life saving pacemaker operation I find that remark very unnecessary not least because it is not a joking matter and if you think it is you need to speak to my family and friends over the worry they have been through this last 6 months
    @Dura_Ace never has anything good to say about anyone, and therefore his views on anyone and anything can pretty much be disregarded. I imagine him as Father Jack... ;)
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,080

    Good morning ladies, gentlemen, comrades and colleagues!
    Does that cover everyone?

    Looking at the results to date on the BBC I’m struck by the number of gains that Independents have made.

    A chunk of those are the anti-Gaza losses by Labour in the north.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,777

    NEW THREAD

  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,033

    Dura_Ace said:

    Heathener said:



    I’m not betting much because I prefer going through bookies but £10 straight 50:50 win or lose Penny Mordaunt. Do we have a deal?

    Captain Mordaunt, RNR must think she's going to keep her seat because she has already rigged stuns'sls and is trying to get the weather gage in the post Sunak leadership contest by writing an article in the Telegraph about how the tories, and only the tories, can be trusted on defence. Absolutely aimed at the (pacemaker assisted) heart of the tory membership.
    As someone who has recently had a life saving pacemaker operation I find that remark very unnecessary not least because it is not a joking matter and if you think it is you need to speak to my family and friends over the worry they have been through this last 6 months
    @Dura_Ace never has anything good to say about anyone, and therefore his views on anyone and anything can pretty much be disregarded. I imagine him as Father Jack... ;)
    I know I am sensitive about this subject but when my cardiologist said my heart was worn out and that I was seriously ill with a real prospect of not seeing the summer out the pacemaker became a real lifesaver for me and not something I find easy to joke about
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,340
    IanB2 said:

    Good morning ladies, gentlemen, comrades and colleagues!
    Does that cover everyone?

    Looking at the results to date on the BBC I’m struck by the number of gains that Independents have made.

    A chunk of those are the anti-Gaza losses by Labour in the north.
    Also, the Portsmouth Independents continue their march down onto Portsea Island (3 gains, now the second largest party).
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,141

    So it looks as though the Conservatives are getting the expected - and deserved - trouncing.

    I haven't been following it closely this morning - are there any bright spots for the blue team?

    Just catching up but I was wondering what's the best result for Starmer - might it not be better for him if the Tories exceed expectations?

    Conversely if the Tories lose *really* badly:
    - Sunak gets dumped and Labour face a new leader - probably photogenic Mordaunt - with a new leader bounce
    - The GE gets pushed back to Dec/Jan
    - And Labour's support become complacent that it's 'in the bag'.
    GOTV will be vital at the next GE, and Labour's biggest recruiting sergeant is the Conservatives. If people think the Conservatives stand no chance, they won't be as keen to vote as they would be if they think the Conservatives stand a chance.

    (I think the opposite happened in 2017 - some (not everyone) who voted for Corbyn's Labour did so thinking it was a 'safe' vote as he stood no chance. Then there was a certain amount of rebound in 2019, when people realised there was a chance that he might win.
    I agree re 2017 but i think 2019 was all about people being sick to the back teeth of hearing about Brexit and wanted it all to finish / be done. That's what Johnson offered, that and a sense of maverick jokiness. (Tbf he delivered on both.)
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,065

    Good morning ladies, gentlemen, comrades and colleagues!
    Does that cover everyone?

    Looking at the results to date on the BBC I’m struck by the number of gains that Independents have made.

    What is striking me is the differentials between holds and losses. Currently, on the BBC, at 117 holds and 122 losses. If that pattern continues to hold and the Tories lose just over half of the seats they have up this will truly have been catastrophic results, way beyond the very bad that was predicted.

    For the first time I do begin to wonder if the Tories can afford to go into an election led by Sunak. They made such a decision before with IDS but (a) he was an idiot and (b) that was in opposition. It is a dreadful dilemma for them.
  • Options
    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,597

    IanB2 said:

    Interesting that Curtice’s preliminary analysis suggests a swing of just 1% Tory to Labour since last May, yet according to national VI the Tories have fallen from high 20s% then to barely above 20% now.

    Hmm. That's interesting.

    One to watch.
    Well, turnout is something I would definitely watch...
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,110

    Heathener said:

    Sean_F said:

    Heathener said:

    Looking at the London 2021 election results, and how Shaun Bailey overperformed, and the MoE in the polling then, it is conceivable that Khan is hovering between 37-38% of the vote and Hall on 35-36% of the vote, if turnout is very poor for him and she's got her vote out. YouGov polls keep overcooking Reform whereas Savanta and Redfield & Wilton had Hall in the low 30s just a few weeks ago.

    So, I can just about believe it's close. It's even conceivable it's very close.

    Frankly I think you are desperately grasping at straws and failing to read the mood.

    I may be wrong but I doubt it’s going to be anywhere near close in London
    On that, I agree.
    Don't encourage her.
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I don't know, sorry. Got woken up by various bits ouching and am a bit frazzled. Am not really capable of interpreting low signal/noise data. Will make more sense in morning. Intended Hall bet as shits-n-giggles bet. Apols if stupid. ☹️
    It's not necessarily a stupid idea depending on what this chatter is based on, assuming it is based on anything at all.
    It was coming from all parties shortly after 10, presumably as their election workers got back to base.

    There’s been shock results before, will be shock results again, it’s not that big a deal.

    Would mean though that rather than a flash in the plan, Uxbridge was a beacon to a Tory mayor victory.
    The Ulez furore was at its height and has since somewhat abated.

    Anecdote. My bro’ who lives in outer London was furious about ulez and with Sadiq. Doesn’t much like him and, at the time, said he would never vote for him again.

    Yesterday he voted for Sadiq Khan.
    You do love your anecdotes and focus groups of 1 at a time. 🙂

    I don’t disbelieve you. […].
    Thank you and you are quite correct.

    I’m grateful you don’t disbelieve them, because I don’t lie on here. You are equally absolutely right to call it out because these little conversations with people may mean absolutely nothing: potentially worse than ‘voodoo polling.’

    I pass them on because I suspect they are indicative but they might well not be :D

    I can’t entirely work out my Surrey tory friend. She’s something of an enigma. She has voted Cons all her life, loves Boris Johnson and would definitely vote Cons again if he was in charge.

    She intensely dislikes Sunak, thinks he stabbed her beloved Boris in the back, and is suddenly really taken by Keir Starmer. She is likely not to vote Cons for the first time in her life.

    It slightly baffles me but perhaps she is an example of a certain kind of female voter?

    I’ll leave it there for now because if we did all fill these pages with anecdotes it could become misleading and it’s also open to mistruths. And this is a betting site first and foremost.

    xx
    It is, but you think entirely with your heart and disparage in emotional (and often personal) terms anyone who disagrees with you. You never provide any analysis and nor do you outline your own bets or betting strategy.

    For that reason, you are ignored.
    Actually I’m not ignored. A number of people have listened to my tips and made money e.g. my tip that Woking would go LibDem, which it did. @Taz for example listened and made money.

    The one thing I don’t do, or try not to, when betting is using my heart. I always try to bet with my head. Whilst it’s true that my biggest win was on Biden, I also made significant wins betting successfully on Brexit including the exact result of 52-48 and on David Cameron winning in 2015.

    But of course listening to people outside the echo chamber is essential if you’re going to use your head. Watch the opinion polls and pay heed.

    I would suggest that there’s an irony therefore. You are betting with your aspiration not with reality e.g. your belief that Hall is a good bet and your latest “on current information” is almost certainly a shameless attempt to spook the market and save your own stake.
    You are all heart. To the extent you sometimes get it right it's stopped clocks. You only appeared on this site recently and given your penchant for creativity I suspect the past successful bets you highlight are entirely synthesised.

    I have made £52.50 of bets on this election. I have shared all of them. I have shared my strategy. I have shared my analysis. In the case of Khan I laid £10 on him at 1.03, so stand to lose that if he wins (which I expect) but yield £325 if Hall wins. I expect that and accept it. I made the bet as I considered it value. I still expect to be up on my bets overall on the night, which include a string on Khan scoring sub 45% of the vote and a big win on sub 40% which actually moved the market once I'd shared it on here.

    You lack self-awareness and view the world entirely through your own prism, and think others must be the same. Therefore, your posts which are sanctimonious, condescending and impertinent - often all the same time - are hilarious to someone who consistently make £1-£1.5k of profit in betting on politics most years, regardless of the political cycle.

    When you start to achieve the same, maybe I'll start to listen to you a bit more.

    When it comes to insight into her community I will listen to @Heathener with respect as she has a proven record.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,559
    IanB2 said:

    I remember delivering leaflets for the Greens in Exeter over a decade ago, and we couldn't manage to make the breakthrough to win a single council seat. So I'm delighted to see them up to 7 seats on the council now, adding an extra councillor, and with some strong second places in other wards.

    Sometimes it’s difficult to recognise when you’ve been holding others back?
    I have never voted for a winning candidate. That is true.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,101
    edited May 3
    ...
    DavidL said:

    Good morning ladies, gentlemen, comrades and colleagues!
    Does that cover everyone?

    Looking at the results to date on the BBC I’m struck by the number of gains that Independents have made.

    What is striking me is the differentials between holds and losses. Currently, on the BBC, at 117 holds and 122 losses. If that pattern continues to hold and the Tories lose just over half of the seats they have up this will truly have been catastrophic results, way beyond the very bad that was predicted.

    For the first time I do begin to wonder if the Tories can afford to go into an election led by Sunak. They made such a decision before with IDS but (a) he was an idiot and (b) that was in opposition. It is a dreadful dilemma for them.
    It depends which way they turn.

    Swing towards Mordaunt and that bolsters Reform but damages Labour (Reform were always less likely than Labour to form the next Government, so that looks like a win for the Tories). Move towards Jenrick/Braverman and Reform collapses, but even more mainstream voters jump ship
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,628

    ToryJim said:



    Nigelb said:

    BBC
    ..Some blistering criticism from long-standing Tory commentator Tim Montgomerie who tells the BBC he believes the prime minister's time is up and the swing against Conservatives in recent by-elections has been "sustained".

    "Personally I think the results are so bad," Montgomerie says. "I just don't think he is connected with the voters.

    "I think he should go."

    Montgomerie hints he has been told Tories are waiting to find out the mayoral results before deciding their next steps..

    Those people who think that keep changing the leader will eventually give you the magic formula to winning the election are not exactly the most hinged specimens of humanity. There’s precious little evidence that another change would improve the situation and plenty of reasons to think it would make it worse. Those wanting rid of Sunak are like someone wittling a piece of wood but it never looks right so the keep going until eventually all they have is a pile of wood chips and nothing to show for it.
    I can't recall a Tory leader since IDS that Tim Montgomerie hasn't wanted to see go.
    There is a reason that Con Home got nicknamed “Continuity IDS”
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,251
    Taz said:

    Heathener said:

    Sean_F said:

    Heathener said:

    Looking at the London 2021 election results, and how Shaun Bailey overperformed, and the MoE in the polling then, it is conceivable that Khan is hovering between 37-38% of the vote and Hall on 35-36% of the vote, if turnout is very poor for him and she's got her vote out. YouGov polls keep overcooking Reform whereas Savanta and Redfield & Wilton had Hall in the low 30s just a few weeks ago.

    So, I can just about believe it's close. It's even conceivable it's very close.

    Frankly I think you are desperately grasping at straws and failing to read the mood.

    I may be wrong but I doubt it’s going to be anywhere near close in London
    On that, I agree.
    Don't encourage her.
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I don't know, sorry. Got woken up by various bits ouching and am a bit frazzled. Am not really capable of interpreting low signal/noise data. Will make more sense in morning. Intended Hall bet as shits-n-giggles bet. Apols if stupid. ☹️
    It's not necessarily a stupid idea depending on what this chatter is based on, assuming it is based on anything at all.
    It was coming from all parties shortly after 10, presumably as their election workers got back to base.

    There’s been shock results before, will be shock results again, it’s not that big a deal.

    Would mean though that rather than a flash in the plan, Uxbridge was a beacon to a Tory mayor victory.
    The Ulez furore was at its height and has since somewhat abated.

    Anecdote. My bro’ who lives in outer London was furious about ulez and with Sadiq. Doesn’t much like him and, at the time, said he would never vote for him again.

    Yesterday he voted for Sadiq Khan.
    You do love your anecdotes and focus groups of 1 at a time. 🙂

    I don’t disbelieve you. […].
    Thank you and you are quite correct.

    I’m grateful you don’t disbelieve them, because I don’t lie on here. You are equally absolutely right to call it out because these little conversations with people may mean absolutely nothing: potentially worse than ‘voodoo polling.’

    I pass them on because I suspect they are indicative but they might well not be :D

    I can’t entirely work out my Surrey tory friend. She’s something of an enigma. She has voted Cons all her life, loves Boris Johnson and would definitely vote Cons again if he was in charge.

    She intensely dislikes Sunak, thinks he stabbed her beloved Boris in the back, and is suddenly really taken by Keir Starmer. She is likely not to vote Cons for the first time in her life.

    It slightly baffles me but perhaps she is an example of a certain kind of female voter?

    I’ll leave it there for now because if we did all fill these pages with anecdotes it could become misleading and it’s also open to mistruths. And this is a betting site first and foremost.

    xx
    It is, but you think entirely with your heart and disparage in emotional (and often personal) terms anyone who disagrees with you. You never provide any analysis and nor do you outline your own bets or betting strategy.

    For that reason, you are ignored.
    Actually I’m not ignored. A number of people have listened to my tips and made money e.g. my tip that Woking would go LibDem, which it did. @Taz for example listened and made money.

    The one thing I don’t do, or try not to, when betting is using my heart. I always try to bet with my head. Whilst it’s true that my biggest win was on Biden, I also made significant wins betting successfully on Brexit including the exact result of 52-48 and on David Cameron winning in 2015.

    But of course listening to people outside the echo chamber is essential if you’re going to use your head. Watch the opinion polls and pay heed.

    I would suggest that there’s an irony therefore. You are betting with your aspiration not with reality e.g. your belief that Hall is a good bet and your latest “on current information” is almost certainly a shameless attempt to spook the market and save your own stake.
    You are all heart. To the extent you sometimes get it right it's stopped clocks. You only appeared on this site recently and given your penchant for creativity I suspect the past successful bets you highlight are entirely synthesised.

    I have made £52.50 of bets on this election. I have shared all of them. I have shared my strategy. I have shared my analysis. In the case of Khan I laid £10 on him at 1.03, so stand to lose that if he wins (which I expect) but yield £325 if Hall wins. I expect that and accept it. I made the bet as I considered it value. I still expect to be up on my bets overall on the night, which include a string on Khan scoring sub 45% of the vote and a big win on sub 40% which actually moved the market once I'd shared it on here.

    You lack self-awareness and view the world entirely through your own prism, and think others must be the same. Therefore, your posts which are sanctimonious, condescending and impertinent - often all the same time - are hilarious to someone who consistently make £1-£1.5k of profit in betting on politics most years, regardless of the political cycle.

    When you start to achieve the same, maybe I'll start to listen to you a bit more.

    When it comes to insight into her community I will listen to @Heathener with respect as she has a proven record.
    She does not.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,251

    ...

    Heathener said:

    DougSeal said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I don't know, sorry. Got woken up by various bits ouching and am a bit frazzled. Am not really capable of interpreting low signal/noise data. Will make more sense in morning. Intended Hall bet as shits-n-giggles bet. Apols if stupid. ☹️
    It's not necessarily a stupid idea depending on what this chatter is based on, assuming it is based on anything at all.
    It was coming from all parties shortly after 10, presumably as their election workers got back to base.

    There’s been shock results before, will be shock results again, it’s not that big a deal.

    Would mean though that rather than a flash in the plan, Uxbridge was a beacon to a Tory mayor victory.
    The Ulez furore was at its height and has since somewhat abated.

    Anecdote. My bro’ who lives in outer London was furious about ulez and with Sadiq. Doesn’t much like him and, at the time, said he would never vote for him again.

    Yesterday he voted for Sadiq Khan.
    I have to shake my head at anybody who looks at Susan Hall and thinks that would be good for our city. Ulez or not, she comes across as profoundly incompetent. Typical populist: all emotion and division, zero governance or implementation. It would have been a disaster for London.
    Yes that was essentially my brother’s view. Doesn’t much like Khan but thinks Susan Hall was an abysmal tory selection.
    Who cares what your brother thinks?
    Her Mum?

    Come on CR, lighten up. It's springtime! [Looks out of window and decides to go back to bed.]
    She pisses me off. And should have much more respect.

    My take is, actually, that's she's a very young Labour activist that is desperate to be taken seriously. In the absence of experience and knowledge, she just has enthusiasm and so makes stuff up and plays the man when it's something she doesn't want to hear.
    I think you’re far too emotionally invested in me tbh. It comes across as slightly unhinged. You do tend to fly off the handle, not just with me, very readily?

    Just tone it down and don’t let me ‘piss you off’. We’re all entitled to varying viewpoints on here and it’s what enriches this place. There really isn’t any need to get so personal or personally vexed about it.

    xx
    I fly off the handle due to your posts accusing me of trying to move the market for my own personal gain. I fly off the handle due to your attacks on my integrity.

    You then cry blue murder and run for the hills when you're called out on it.

    What you post isn't a viewpoint, it's personal ad hominem and you can entirely expect a negative reaction if you consider in that vein.

    Think about it.

    TBF telling a young woman, hardly an abundant type here, that she needs to show more “respect” will invite some adverse comment. A bit unfortunate but there you are.
    Thanks.

    And you’re correct. I’ve tried publicising this place to friends but I think they feel pretty put off. The kind of male aggression from CR really isn’t going to attract more female input on the site.
    Maybe they dont come on the site because theyre trying to avoid you ?
    Do you feel better now you've got that off your chest?

    How unnecessarily rude!
    How about you call out Heathener's rudeness rather than liking it.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,276

    IanB2 said:

    Interesting that Curtice’s preliminary analysis suggests a swing of just 1% Tory to Labour since last May, yet according to national VI the Tories have fallen from high 20s% then to barely above 20% now.

    Hmm. That's interesting.

    One to watch.
    GAZA. Vote against the Tories but where a reasonable alternative to Labour exists take it.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,251
    Heathener said:

    DougSeal said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I don't know, sorry. Got woken up by various bits ouching and am a bit frazzled. Am not really capable of interpreting low signal/noise data. Will make more sense in morning. Intended Hall bet as shits-n-giggles bet. Apols if stupid. ☹️
    It's not necessarily a stupid idea depending on what this chatter is based on, assuming it is based on anything at all.
    It was coming from all parties shortly after 10, presumably as their election workers got back to base.

    There’s been shock results before, will be shock results again, it’s not that big a deal.

    Would mean though that rather than a flash in the plan, Uxbridge was a beacon to a Tory mayor victory.
    The Ulez furore was at its height and has since somewhat abated.

    Anecdote. My bro’ who lives in outer London was furious about ulez and with Sadiq. Doesn’t much like him and, at the time, said he would never vote for him again.

    Yesterday he voted for Sadiq Khan.
    I have to shake my head at anybody who looks at Susan Hall and thinks that would be good for our city. Ulez or not, she comes across as profoundly incompetent. Typical populist: all emotion and division, zero governance or implementation. It would have been a disaster for London.
    Yes that was essentially my brother’s view. Doesn’t much like Khan but thinks Susan Hall was an abysmal tory selection.
    Who cares what your brother thinks?
    Her Mum?

    Come on CR, lighten up. It's springtime! [Looks out of window and decides to go back to bed.]
    She pisses me off. And should have much more respect.

    My take is, actually, that's she's a very young Labour activist that is desperate to be taken seriously. In the absence of experience and knowledge, she just has enthusiasm and so makes stuff up and plays the man when it's something she doesn't want to hear.
    I think you’re far too emotionally invested in me tbh. It comes across as slightly unhinged. You do tend to fly off the handle, not just with me, very readily?

    Just tone it down and don’t let me ‘piss you off’. We’re all entitled to varying viewpoints on here and it’s what enriches this place. There really isn’t any need to get so personal or personally vexed about it.

    xx
    I fly off the handle due to your posts accusing me of trying to move the market for my own personal gain. I fly off the handle due to your attacks on my integrity.

    You then cry blue murder and run for the hills when you're called out on it.

    What you post isn't a viewpoint, it's personal ad hominem and you can entirely expect a negative reaction if you consider in that vein.

    Think about it.

    TBF telling a young woman, hardly an abundant type here, that she needs to show more “respect” will invite some adverse comment. A bit unfortunate but there you are.
    Thanks.

    And you’re correct. I’ve tried publicising this place to friends but I think they feel pretty put off. The kind of male aggression from CR really isn’t going to attract more female input on the site.
    There you go again, crying to nurse. I'd call out behaviour from anyone as rude and personal as yours, regardless of sex.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,251
    Heathener said:

    CR I am, with good reason, innately suspicious of people who post on betting sites some apparently esoteric gnostic insider knowledge when I know full well they are personally invested in the result and have a vested interest. Especially when it’s on the spreads.

    You did once literally tell me to “fuck off from this site for 48 hours” for precisely the reason that you were invested in a bet and didn’t want the market spooked. So I have some reason from past information to doubt your motives in ramping up Susan Hall this time. If you pause for thought I think you would acknowledge that as an acceptable comment even if you are not, on this occasion, doing so.

    I’ll leave it there and wish you all a lovely day.

    xx

    Let's break this down:

    (a) I haven't got insider knowledge, I'm analysing what's publicly available and shared on here
    (b) I haven't bet on the spreads
    (c) My interest in the result is a financial one (notwithstanding my own political preferences)
    (d) I never ramp - that's a very offensive comment to make on a betting site

    You consistently make offensive comments, and then cry unacceptability when you're called out on it. There are far too many people who indulge you in it but row in behind you when you get it back.

    I think it's pathetic.
  • Options
    twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,204

    Dura_Ace said:

    Heathener said:



    I’m not betting much because I prefer going through bookies but £10 straight 50:50 win or lose Penny Mordaunt. Do we have a deal?

    Captain Mordaunt, RNR must think she's going to keep her seat because she has already rigged stuns'sls and is trying to get the weather gage in the post Sunak leadership contest by writing an article in the Telegraph about how the tories, and only the tories, can be trusted on defence. Absolutely aimed at the (pacemaker assisted) heart of the tory membership.
    As someone who has recently had a life saving pacemaker operation I find that remark very unnecessary not least because it is not a joking matter and if you think it is you need to speak to my family and friends over the worry they have been through this last 6 months
    So, anything that you find a bit sensitive isn't a joking matter? What makes you and your family so special?
  • Options
    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,452
    edited May 3

    Worth remembering that the last big anti-Tory wave flowed at its peak in a pre-online world and without the easy availability of very focused info on how best to utilise your anti-Tory vote.

    Agree that the potential impact of tactical voting this time is significant.

    But Labour Centrists may be making the same mistake as the Tories about thinking they can piss off elements of their vote but that they will return when needed. Starmer will need the centre-left after the first term when the swing vote begins to fall away. And a big chunk may not be there.

    That said, this London stuff is piss taking and bedwetting. Khan will win easily.


This discussion has been closed.