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MRP benchmarks and assorted thoughts – politicalbetting.com

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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,400
    rcs1000 said:

    mwadams said:

    Sean_F said:

    Heathener said:

    It’s beginning to look as if the Cons may lose close to 500 seats, which is worse than any commentators I saw forecast.

    Crucial to note: Projected share is roughly where we expected based on the polls, but seat gains/losses seem to be a good 30% worse than expected - suggests an additional efficiency to the anti-Con vote.

    https://twitter.com/Dylan_Difford/status/1786223776172007564
    Rallings & Thrasher were expecting about 500 losses, back in March.
    R&T March 26th:
    "If the Conservatives repeat their poor performance of 2023, when the NEV put them below 30%, they stand to lose up to 500 seats – half their councillors facing election. Labour may make about 300 gains, with the Liberal Democrats and Greens both likely to advance"

    So 500 was an upper limit of "poor performance" a couple of weeks ago.
    There are three conclusions from these elections:

    1. The anti-Conservative vote is increasingly efficient. And a return to tactical voting is definitely bad news for the conservatives.

    2. Refuk is taking votes from the conservatives. There's probably the opportunity to bring them back, but it won't be easy.

    3. The electorate is willing to look beyond ConLabLD: that's bad news for all the incumbent pastors.
    Incumbent pastors? Your autocorrect seen the light?
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    MJWMJW Posts: 1,527

    The size of the Blackpool South win is what Labour needed to grasp positive headlines for themselves.

    If other things now go wrong for them in next two days, Mayor’s, their underperforming NEV share, they have at least got something good from this.

    Rushmoor should also terrify the Tories. It couldn't be better designed for what the supposed Tory pitch is now. Aldershot and leafiness. Woking looks down on Aldershot for being a bit gauchely right-wing. It's now Labour for the first time ever IRC.
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    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,178

    The size of the Blackpool South win is what Labour needed to grasp positive headlines for themselves.

    If other things now go wrong for them in next two days, Mayor’s, their underperforming NEV share, they have at least got something good from this.

    It'll be a good indication of how good Labour's spin game is. They have an unambiguously good result to trumpet, and it ought to be the most significant result of the night,

    Can they broadcast this message and make it stick?

    Or will the Tories hog the headlines for "beating Refuk into third place" and (just now) "holding on to Harlow"?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,769
    Heathener said:

    One of the interesting aspects so far is that the Conservatives are faring worse in their former Brexit lands


    A great chart... And a great reason to sell LD seats. They're not getting more than than 24-28.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,769

    rcs1000 said:

    mwadams said:

    Sean_F said:

    Heathener said:

    It’s beginning to look as if the Cons may lose close to 500 seats, which is worse than any commentators I saw forecast.

    Crucial to note: Projected share is roughly where we expected based on the polls, but seat gains/losses seem to be a good 30% worse than expected - suggests an additional efficiency to the anti-Con vote.

    https://twitter.com/Dylan_Difford/status/1786223776172007564
    Rallings & Thrasher were expecting about 500 losses, back in March.
    R&T March 26th:
    "If the Conservatives repeat their poor performance of 2023, when the NEV put them below 30%, they stand to lose up to 500 seats – half their councillors facing election. Labour may make about 300 gains, with the Liberal Democrats and Greens both likely to advance"

    So 500 was an upper limit of "poor performance" a couple of weeks ago.
    There are three conclusions from these elections:

    1. The anti-Conservative vote is increasingly efficient. And a return to tactical voting is definitely bad news for the conservatives.

    2. Refuk is taking votes from the conservatives. There's probably the opportunity to bring them back, but it won't be easy.

    3. The electorate is willing to look beyond ConLabLD: that's bad news for all the incumbent pastors.
    Incumbent pastors? Your autocorrect seen the light?
    Yep, pastors tend to vote for traditional...

    Yeah... You got me.... I meant parties.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,520

    Heathener said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I don't know, sorry. Got woken up by various bits ouching and am a bit frazzled. Am not really capable of interpreting low signal/noise data. Will make more sense in morning. Intended Hall bet as shits-n-giggles bet. Apols if stupid. ☹️
    It's not necessarily a stupid idea depending on what this chatter is based on, assuming it is based on anything at all.
    It was coming from all parties shortly after 10, presumably as their election workers got back to base.

    There’s been shock results before, will be shock results again, it’s not that big a deal.

    Would mean though that rather than a flash in the plan, Uxbridge was a beacon to a Tory mayor victory.
    The Ulez furore was at its height and has since somewhat abated.

    Anecdote. My bro’ who lives in outer London was furious about ulez and with Sadiq. Doesn’t much like him and, at the time, said he would never vote for him again.

    Yesterday he voted for Sadiq Khan.
    You do love your anecdotes and focus groups of 1 at a time. 🙂

    I don’t disbelieve you. […].
    Thank you and you are quite correct.

    I’m grateful you don’t disbelieve them, because I don’t lie on here. You are equally absolutely right to call it out because these little conversations with people may mean absolutely nothing: potentially worse than ‘voodoo polling.’

    I pass them on because I suspect they are indicative but they might well not be :D

    I can’t entirely work out my Surrey tory friend. She’s something of an enigma. She has voted Cons all her life, loves Boris Johnson and would definitely vote Cons again if he was in charge.

    She intensely dislikes Sunak, thinks he stabbed her beloved Boris in the back, and is suddenly really taken by Keir Starmer. She is likely not to vote Cons for the first time in her life.

    It slightly baffles me but perhaps she is an example of a certain kind of female voter?

    I’ll leave it there for now because if we did all fill these pages with anecdotes it could become misleading and it’s also open to mistruths. And this is a betting site first and foremost.

    xx
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    Conservatives holding Harlow has to be something of an achievement in the current climate.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,769
    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    One of the interesting aspects so far is that the Conservatives are faring worse in their former Brexit lands


    A great chart... And a great reason to sell LD seats. They're not getting more than than 24-28.
    It's also a reminder that changing Conservative leader has consequences: right now they're holding up well in the BlueyYellowy Wall, but being hammered in Leavistan. Switch leaders, and you shore up your vote in the North, but run the risk of losing a bunch of seats in Remainia
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    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 985
    Why does Angela Richardson keep saying we've had with 'with Ukraine'? We're not at war with anyone, much less Ukraine.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,520
    ToryJim said:

    Conservatives holding Harlow has to be something of an achievement in the current climate.

    Interesting blue patch from Essex up towards Lincolnshire? A last stronghold?

    Kemi Badenoch’s Saffron Walden seat just 20 miles away is one of the few rock solid ones at the GE
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,002
    edited May 3
    MJW said:

    The size of the Blackpool South win is what Labour needed to grasp positive headlines for themselves.

    If other things now go wrong for them in next two days, Mayor’s, their underperforming NEV share, they have at least got something good from this.

    Rushmoor should also terrify the Tories. It couldn't be better designed for what the supposed Tory pitch is now. Aldershot and leafiness. Woking looks down on Aldershot for being a bit gauchely right-wing. It's now Labour for the first time ever IRC.
    Big swings in Plymouth against the Tories.

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1786247798930681921?t=seQn2zn1FxIJ9JJ5CPMfyQ&s=19

    Mercer doomed, maybe not good news for backers of Penny too. That armed forces vote doesn't like the Tories now.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,002
    The real election numbers we're seeing from Reform remain more consistent with them getting 7-8% in a general election than 15%. But it's still enough to do serious damage to the Tories.

    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1786243064459063407?t=pS5x-DiRNm4nSefbiU3v1g&s=19
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147
    might be good idea to a break from this now. Before Leon wakes up and realises there’s a National day of Pâtisserie strike action. 🫤
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,400

    might be good idea to a break from this now. Before Leon wakes up and realises there’s a National day of Pâtisserie strike action. 🫤

    We could have used Leon's expert views on BBC panellists' facial tics.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,002
    Foxy said:

    MJW said:

    The size of the Blackpool South win is what Labour needed to grasp positive headlines for themselves.

    If other things now go wrong for them in next two days, Mayor’s, their underperforming NEV share, they have at least got something good from this.

    Rushmoor should also terrify the Tories. It couldn't be better designed for what the supposed Tory pitch is now. Aldershot and leafiness. Woking looks down on Aldershot for being a bit gauchely right-wing. It's now Labour for the first time ever IRC.
    Big swings in Plymouth against the Tories.

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1786247798930681921?t=seQn2zn1FxIJ9JJ5CPMfyQ&s=19

    Mercer doomed, maybe not good news for backers of Penny too. That armed forces vote doesn't like the Tories now.
    Not popular with the RAF either...

    Hartsholme (City Of Lincoln) council election result:

    LAB: 43.3% (+14.1)
    CON: 35.3% (-22.1)
    REF: 9.7% (+9.7)
    LDEM: 6.6% (+2.4)
    GRN: 5.1% (-4.0)

    Labour GAIN from Conservative

    Birchwood (City Of Lincoln) council election result:

    LAB: 43.8% (+9.6)
    CON: 37.8% (-20.3)
    REF: 11.6% (+11.6)
    LDEM: 6.9% (+3.8)

    Labour GAIN from Conservative
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    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 985
    Penny Watch: Out of the seven wards in Portsmouth North, six have declared and the Tories haven't won any, all three defences so far lost (though their best seat from 2021 is the one outstanding). The benefit is going to the Portsmouth Independent Party, adding Copnor, Cosham and Hilsea to the Paulsgrove seat they already had.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,002
    Blackpool South by-election - 26.3pt swing is 7pts greater than the seat in MRP averages, 10pts higher than national polls and, most crucially, larger than my graphic was designed for.

    Reform slightly overperform the MRPs (17% vs 15%), but they were conducted when Reform's vote was 2pts lower in the polls, so arguably where they should be.

    https://twitter.com/Dylan_Difford/status/1786243090954506536?t=8D5rjj-1hht6yQljYvnItg&s=19

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    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 985
    And PIP nearly got Drayton & Farlington as well but it stayed Tory. so overall in the seven wards that make up Portsmouth North.

    Portsmouth Independents 37.7% (+29.6% compared to 2021)
    Conservative 21.9% (-25.2%)
    Labour 20.5% (-1.7%)
    Liberal Democrats 15.9% (-2.7%)
    Green 4.0% (+0.0%)
    Seats: PIP 4, LD 2, Con 1.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,496
    @robfordmancs
    Tony Blair achieved four 20 point plus swings from Cons when he was opposition leader - Starmer has now achieved five - including four of the top 5 largest ever, all achieved in the last year


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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,002
    Looks like that was the worst polling ever for the Tories in Blackpool South. Even in 1997 they got 34% there.

    Optimal seat for Reform too, but even allocating 100% of the Reform votes to Con (never going to happen) it only equals a 1997 level Con vote share.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,463
    Once is happenstance, twice a coincidence ...


    Second Boeing whistleblower dies after short illness
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/02/second-boeing-whistleblower-dies
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,520
    Redditch and Thurrock going to Labour

    Really interesting how well Labour are doing in Leave voting areas
    DM_Andy said:

    Penny Watch: Out of the seven wards in Portsmouth North, six have declared and the Tories haven't won any, all three defences so far lost (though their best seat from 2021 is the one outstanding). The benefit is going to the Portsmouth Independent Party, adding Copnor, Cosham and Hilsea to the Paulsgrove seat they already had.

    She’s in trouble, isn’t she?

    There might be a few in CCHQ who will be happy about it. Going on manoeuvres against an incumbent doesn’t go down well.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,463
    BBC
    ..Some blistering criticism from long-standing Tory commentator Tim Montgomerie who tells the BBC he believes the prime minister's time is up and the swing against Conservatives in recent by-elections has been "sustained".

    "Personally I think the results are so bad," Montgomerie says. "I just don't think he is connected with the voters.

    "I think he should go."

    Montgomerie hints he has been told Tories are waiting to find out the mayoral results before deciding their next steps..
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,520
    edited May 3
    IanB2 said:



    Meanwhile kudos to Heathener for having a friend or relative in every constituency; our very own one-woman MRP.

    Naughty ;)

    I only really comment on one tory friend who is in Woking and it’s because of her that I correctly predicted that Woking would go LibDem at the local level, which made people like @Taz money last time around.
    (my Londoner brother isn’t a tory)

    I reckon Guildford going LibDem at the GE looks a decent bet too by the way. Parts of SW London down through Surrey and just fringing into Hampshire could be decent yellow bets.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,520
    Scott_xP said:

    @robfordmancs
    Tony Blair achieved four 20 point plus swings from Cons when he was opposition leader - Starmer has now achieved five - including four of the top 5 largest ever, all achieved in the last year


    Yep I’m pretty convinced now that it will be 1997 Redux
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,002
    Heathener said:

    IanB2 said:



    Meanwhile kudos to Heathener for having a friend or relative in every constituency; our very own one-woman MRP.

    Naughty ;)

    I only really comment on one tory friend who is in Woking and it’s because of her that I correctly predicted that Woking would go LibDem at the local level, which made people like @Taz money last time around.

    I reckon Guildford going LibDem at the GE looks a decent bet too by the way. Parts of SW London down through Surrey and just fringing into Hampshire could be decent yellow bets.
    Bishop's Waltham (Winchester) council election result:

    LDEM: 57.4% (+32.4)
    CON: 24.9% (-30.4)
    IND: 7.2% (+7.2)
    GRN: 6.1% (-6.9)
    LAB: 4.4% (-2.3)

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

    Big swing in a key LD target.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,081
    edited May 3
    Labour LOSE Oldham to NOC - evidence of a mixed picture despite the huge swings elsewhere. Gaza.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,002
    Heathener said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @robfordmancs
    Tony Blair achieved four 20 point plus swings from Cons when he was opposition leader - Starmer has now achieved five - including four of the top 5 largest ever, all achieved in the last year


    Yep I’m pretty convinced now that it will be 1997 Redux
    I am beginning to think that Starmer may outdo Blair. He maybe shedding votes to the Greens in a few safe seats but the Lab vote is becoming very efficiently distributed for FPTP. Coupled with the implosion of the SNP he could well be on for a record GE swing.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,463
    Some very large swings in the PCC elections.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,081
    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @robfordmancs
    Tony Blair achieved four 20 point plus swings from Cons when he was opposition leader - Starmer has now achieved five - including four of the top 5 largest ever, all achieved in the last year


    Yep I’m pretty convinced now that it will be 1997 Redux
    I am beginning to think that Starmer may outdo Blair. He maybe shedding votes to the Greens in a few safe seats but the Lab vote is becoming very efficiently distributed for FPTP. Coupled with the implosion of the SNP he could well be on for a record GE swing.
    If you have a 20%+ lead over your opponent, it’s hard to have an inefficient vote distribution tbf.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,002
    Nigelb said:

    Some very large swings in the PCC elections.

    Do you have figures?
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,496
    IanB2 said:

    Labour LOSE Oldham to NOC - evidence of a mixed picture despite the huge swings elsewhere. Gaza.

    @JenWilliams_FT
    Ooft those results in Oldham. Not had the chance to look properly but that looks at least partly Gaza related
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,520
    IanB2 said:

    Labour LOSE Oldham to NOC - evidence of a mixed picture despite the huge swings elsewhere

    IanB2 said:

    Labour LOSE Oldham to NOC - evidence of a mixed picture despite the huge swings elsewhere

    Interesting.

    Their vote is 3.3% down in areas with a Muslim population of >5%

    Oldham has c 25% ’Asian or Asian Muslim’ population

    Source: BBC and ONS
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/censusareachanges/E08000004/

    = Gaza effect
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,762
    Foxy said:

    The real election numbers we're seeing from Reform remain more consistent with them getting 7-8% in a general election than 15%. But it's still enough to do serious damage to the Tories.

    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1786243064459063407?t=pS5x-DiRNm4nSefbiU3v1g&s=19

    From BBC:

    “Reform is averaging 14% in wards where it stood, and in those places the Conservatives have suffered heavily, with their vote falling by as much as 19% on 2021.”
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,463
    That's why their economic policies don't add up.

    Reform UK's leader Richard Tice told the BBC his party will “110% not be doing any election deals with the Tories”
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,252
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I wouldn't be backing Khan at 1.05 - that's certainly not value.

    He should probably be at 1.25 to 1.3 based on current information.
    I'm no Khan fan, but he's a lot better than an 80% chance to hold on
    I'm not sure based on current information.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,520
    edited May 3
    Tim Montgomerie just called for Rishi Sunak to go.

    Perhaps not surprising but unless the mayorals give him a boost (which they might) we can probably expect more of this. Some local Conservative ex-Councillor on the BBC really laid into Sunak and Angela Richardson (tory MP Guildford … for now).

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-68609729
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,252
    Heathener said:

    Looking at the London 2021 election results, and how Shaun Bailey overperformed, and the MoE in the polling then, it is conceivable that Khan is hovering between 37-38% of the vote and Hall on 35-36% of the vote, if turnout is very poor for him and she's got her vote out. YouGov polls keep overcooking Reform whereas Savanta and Redfield & Wilton had Hall in the low 30s just a few weeks ago.

    So, I can just about believe it's close. It's even conceivable it's very close.

    Frankly I think you are desperately grasping at straws and failing to read the mood.

    I may be wrong but I doubt it’s going to be anywhere near close in London
    I'm looking at the polls, the data, what happened last time, and snippets of what we've heard so far. I also have placed bets on accordingly.

    Have you?

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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,463
    edited May 3
    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @robfordmancs
    Tony Blair achieved four 20 point plus swings from Cons when he was opposition leader - Starmer has now achieved five - including four of the top 5 largest ever, all achieved in the last year


    Yep I’m pretty convinced now that it will be 1997 Redux
    I am beginning to think that Starmer may outdo Blair. He maybe shedding votes to the Greens in a few safe seats but the Lab vote is becoming very efficiently distributed for FPTP. Coupled with the implosion of the SNP he could well be on for a record GE swing.
    ...The Conservative Marc Jones was re-elected as Police and Crime Commissioner for Lincolnshire for a third term.

    But the party's vote share fell by 23% with Labour up 10% and Reform increasing by 11%, beating the Lib Dems into third.
    ..

    Cumbria also 20% plus I think, with Labour winning.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,520

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I wouldn't be backing Khan at 1.05 - that's certainly not value.

    He should probably be at 1.25 to 1.3 based on current information.
    I'm no Khan fan, but he's a lot better than an 80% chance to hold on
    I'm not sure based on current information.
    “Current information” = please save my bet
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,252
    Sean_F said:

    Heathener said:

    Looking at the London 2021 election results, and how Shaun Bailey overperformed, and the MoE in the polling then, it is conceivable that Khan is hovering between 37-38% of the vote and Hall on 35-36% of the vote, if turnout is very poor for him and she's got her vote out. YouGov polls keep overcooking Reform whereas Savanta and Redfield & Wilton had Hall in the low 30s just a few weeks ago.

    So, I can just about believe it's close. It's even conceivable it's very close.

    Frankly I think you are desperately grasping at straws and failing to read the mood.

    I may be wrong but I doubt it’s going to be anywhere near close in London
    On that, I agree.
    Don't encourage her.
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I don't know, sorry. Got woken up by various bits ouching and am a bit frazzled. Am not really capable of interpreting low signal/noise data. Will make more sense in morning. Intended Hall bet as shits-n-giggles bet. Apols if stupid. ☹️
    It's not necessarily a stupid idea depending on what this chatter is based on, assuming it is based on anything at all.
    It was coming from all parties shortly after 10, presumably as their election workers got back to base.

    There’s been shock results before, will be shock results again, it’s not that big a deal.

    Would mean though that rather than a flash in the plan, Uxbridge was a beacon to a Tory mayor victory.
    The Ulez furore was at its height and has since somewhat abated.

    Anecdote. My bro’ who lives in outer London was furious about ulez and with Sadiq. Doesn’t much like him and, at the time, said he would never vote for him again.

    Yesterday he voted for Sadiq Khan.
    You do love your anecdotes and focus groups of 1 at a time. 🙂

    I don’t disbelieve you. […].
    Thank you and you are quite correct.

    I’m grateful you don’t disbelieve them, because I don’t lie on here. You are equally absolutely right to call it out because these little conversations with people may mean absolutely nothing: potentially worse than ‘voodoo polling.’

    I pass them on because I suspect they are indicative but they might well not be :D

    I can’t entirely work out my Surrey tory friend. She’s something of an enigma. She has voted Cons all her life, loves Boris Johnson and would definitely vote Cons again if he was in charge.

    She intensely dislikes Sunak, thinks he stabbed her beloved Boris in the back, and is suddenly really taken by Keir Starmer. She is likely not to vote Cons for the first time in her life.

    It slightly baffles me but perhaps she is an example of a certain kind of female voter?

    I’ll leave it there for now because if we did all fill these pages with anecdotes it could become misleading and it’s also open to mistruths. And this is a betting site first and foremost.

    xx
    It is, but you think entirely with your heart and disparage in emotional (and often personal) terms anyone who disagrees with you. You never provide any analysis and nor do you outline your own bets or betting strategy.

    For that reason, you are ignored.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,150
    Good morning, everyone.

    Small amusing aside: just seen an e-mail regarding the elections. It was sent yesterday but too late for me to actually see it. Would not have altered my vote, but sending it so late (must've been late morning or early afternoon, forgot to check the time) was not smart.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,252
    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I wouldn't be backing Khan at 1.05 - that's certainly not value.

    He should probably be at 1.25 to 1.3 based on current information.
    I'm no Khan fan, but he's a lot better than an 80% chance to hold on
    I'm not sure based on current information.
    “Current information” = please save my bet
    The concept of a value loser is clearly alien to you.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,762
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @robfordmancs
    Tony Blair achieved four 20 point plus swings from Cons when he was opposition leader - Starmer has now achieved five - including four of the top 5 largest ever, all achieved in the last year


    Yep I’m pretty convinced now that it will be 1997 Redux
    I am beginning to think that Starmer may outdo Blair. He maybe shedding votes to the Greens in a few safe seats but the Lab vote is becoming very efficiently distributed for FPTP. Coupled with the implosion of the SNP he could well be on for a record GE swing.
    ...The Conservative Marc Jones was re-elected as Police and Crime Commissioner for Lincolnshire for a third term.

    But the party's vote share fell by 23% with Labour up 10% and Reform increasing by 11%, beating the Lib Dems into third.
    ..

    Cumbria also 20% plus I think.
    Where they stand, Reform UK are doing well. They’ve not won anything, but they’re taking votes from the Tories. Let’s see if the mayoral results tell a different story, where some polling suggests RefUK voters swinging back to the Tories.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,252
    Heathener said:

    Redditch and Thurrock going to Labour

    Really interesting how well Labour are doing in Leave voting areas

    DM_Andy said:

    Penny Watch: Out of the seven wards in Portsmouth North, six have declared and the Tories haven't won any, all three defences so far lost (though their best seat from 2021 is the one outstanding). The benefit is going to the Portsmouth Independent Party, adding Copnor, Cosham and Hilsea to the Paulsgrove seat they already had.

    She’s in trouble, isn’t she?

    There might be a few in CCHQ who will be happy about it. Going on manoeuvres against an incumbent doesn’t go down well.
    No, I don't think she's in trouble. I expect her to comfortably hold her seat at the GE based on the polling.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,043

    HYUFD said:

    Everyone has got rather excited by the entertaining notion that Trump Hall has won London. But the source that the Usherwood had has been discounted by everyone else's sources. So lets assume not.

    But Blackpool? I said ages ago that ReFUK could do very well as its almost a perfect seat for them. And I assume the guy briefing the Times is actually from the party in person at the count...

    Blackpool was 67.5% Leave, if Reform can't beat the Tories there, where can they?
    We had this discussion earlier. If you want to breathe in the hopium that unless the Fukkers actually beat you they aren't a threat, then please feel free.

    We just won't allow you any credibility as a political analyst.
    I'm loathe to agree with HYUFD but he's right, they aren't.

    They are in the immortal words of David Cameron merely assorted fruitcakes, nuts and loons.

    The threat to the Tories isn't Reform, its Labour. The problem for the Tories isn't Reform, its that in seats up and down the country they're going to register fewer votes than Labour.
    In 2019 the Tories were denied an even bigger majority than they got. In seat after seat after seat they lost to Labour with the BXP vote bigger than the majority.

    That is going to happen again only this time it loses the Tories seats. A narrow Labour gain where the RefUK vote is bigger than the majority.

    Farage is coming back. The gap is already only a few percent - as Blackpool demonstrates. Add in the Nigel and the Tories get overtaken, splitting the right and boosting Labour gains.

    The idea that “unless they win seats they are no threat” is genuinely stupid. Labour wins across the north east in 2019 in seats the Tories should have taken where it not for Farage. And it will be the same again this time.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,762

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I wouldn't be backing Khan at 1.05 - that's certainly not value.

    He should probably be at 1.25 to 1.3 based on current information.
    I'm no Khan fan, but he's a lot better than an 80% chance to hold on
    I'm not sure based on current information.
    “Current information” = please save my bet
    The concept of a value loser is clearly alien to you.
    A bet on Susan Hall is just a regular loser.

    You’ve just berated Heathener for not providing any analysis. What’s your analysis for Hall having a better chance than a snowball in Hell?
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,520
    edited May 3

    Sean_F said:

    Heathener said:

    Looking at the London 2021 election results, and how Shaun Bailey overperformed, and the MoE in the polling then, it is conceivable that Khan is hovering between 37-38% of the vote and Hall on 35-36% of the vote, if turnout is very poor for him and she's got her vote out. YouGov polls keep overcooking Reform whereas Savanta and Redfield & Wilton had Hall in the low 30s just a few weeks ago.

    So, I can just about believe it's close. It's even conceivable it's very close.

    Frankly I think you are desperately grasping at straws and failing to read the mood.

    I may be wrong but I doubt it’s going to be anywhere near close in London
    On that, I agree.
    Don't encourage her.
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I don't know, sorry. Got woken up by various bits ouching and am a bit frazzled. Am not really capable of interpreting low signal/noise data. Will make more sense in morning. Intended Hall bet as shits-n-giggles bet. Apols if stupid. ☹️
    It's not necessarily a stupid idea depending on what this chatter is based on, assuming it is based on anything at all.
    It was coming from all parties shortly after 10, presumably as their election workers got back to base.

    There’s been shock results before, will be shock results again, it’s not that big a deal.

    Would mean though that rather than a flash in the plan, Uxbridge was a beacon to a Tory mayor victory.
    The Ulez furore was at its height and has since somewhat abated.

    Anecdote. My bro’ who lives in outer London was furious about ulez and with Sadiq. Doesn’t much like him and, at the time, said he would never vote for him again.

    Yesterday he voted for Sadiq Khan.
    You do love your anecdotes and focus groups of 1 at a time. 🙂

    I don’t disbelieve you. […].
    Thank you and you are quite correct.

    I’m grateful you don’t disbelieve them, because I don’t lie on here. You are equally absolutely right to call it out because these little conversations with people may mean absolutely nothing: potentially worse than ‘voodoo polling.’

    I pass them on because I suspect they are indicative but they might well not be :D

    I can’t entirely work out my Surrey tory friend. She’s something of an enigma. She has voted Cons all her life, loves Boris Johnson and would definitely vote Cons again if he was in charge.

    She intensely dislikes Sunak, thinks he stabbed her beloved Boris in the back, and is suddenly really taken by Keir Starmer. She is likely not to vote Cons for the first time in her life.

    It slightly baffles me but perhaps she is an example of a certain kind of female voter?

    I’ll leave it there for now because if we did all fill these pages with anecdotes it could become misleading and it’s also open to mistruths. And this is a betting site first and foremost.

    xx
    It is, but you think entirely with your heart and disparage in emotional (and often personal) terms anyone who disagrees with you. You never provide any analysis and nor do you outline your own bets or betting strategy.

    For that reason, you are ignored.
    Actually I’m not ignored. A number of people have listened to my tips and made money e.g. my tip that Woking would go LibDem, which it did. @Taz for example listened and made money.

    The one thing I don’t do, or try not to, when betting is using my heart. I always try to bet with my head. Whilst it’s true that my biggest win was on Biden, I also made significant wins betting successfully on Brexit including the exact result of 52-48 and on David Cameron winning in 2015.

    But of course listening to people outside the echo chamber is essential if you’re going to use your head. Watch the opinion polls and pay heed.

    I would suggest that there’s an irony therefore. You are betting with your aspiration not with reality e.g. your belief that Hall is a good bet and your latest “on current information” is almost certainly a shameless attempt to spook the market and save your own stake.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,520

    Heathener said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I don't know, sorry. Got woken up by various bits ouching and am a bit frazzled. Am not really capable of interpreting low signal/noise data. Will make more sense in morning. Intended Hall bet as shits-n-giggles bet. Apols if stupid. ☹️
    It's not necessarily a stupid idea depending on what this chatter is based on, assuming it is based on anything at all.
    It was coming from all parties shortly after 10, presumably as their election workers got back to base.

    There’s been shock results before, will be shock results again, it’s not that big a deal.

    Would mean though that rather than a flash in the plan, Uxbridge was a beacon to a Tory mayor victory.
    The Ulez furore was at its height and has since somewhat abated.

    Anecdote. My bro’ who lives in outer London was furious about ulez and with Sadiq. Doesn’t much like him and, at the time, said he would never vote for him again.

    Yesterday he voted for Sadiq Khan.
    I have to shake my head at anybody who looks at Susan Hall and thinks that would be good for our city. Ulez or not, she comes across as profoundly incompetent. Typical populist: all emotion and division, zero governance or implementation. It would have been a disaster for London.
    Yes that was essentially my brother’s view. Doesn’t much like Khan but thinks Susan Hall was an abysmal tory selection.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,043

    First result:

    Copt Hill (Sunderland):

    LAB: 59.8% (+16.9)
    CON: 13.2% (-13.7)
    RFM: 12.3% (New)
    GRN: 10.2% (+1.9)
    LDM: 4.4% (-4.4)

    No UKIP (-13.0) as previous.

    Labour HOLD.
    Changes w/ 2021.

    Seems a bit meh.

    Is it? Shows me that Reform voters are willing to fuck the Conservatives.

    CCHQ should be terrified that they no longer benefit from LLG splitting the vote now that big Nige is gonna take half their voters in all those ageing, WWC, homeowning constituencies.
    Sunderland Central 2019:
    Lab 18,336 (-13.3%)
    Con 15,372 (+2.1%)
    Brexit 5,047 (new)

    Another seat the Tories would have taken without Farage split the right vote. Think what damage he will do this time. But I keep being told that they are “no threat” because they won’t win. Tell that to the defeated Tory candidates in 2019 across NE England.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,002
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @robfordmancs
    Tony Blair achieved four 20 point plus swings from Cons when he was opposition leader - Starmer has now achieved five - including four of the top 5 largest ever, all achieved in the last year


    Yep I’m pretty convinced now that it will be 1997 Redux
    I am beginning to think that Starmer may outdo Blair. He maybe shedding votes to the Greens in a few safe seats but the Lab vote is becoming very efficiently distributed for FPTP. Coupled with the implosion of the SNP he could well be on for a record GE swing.
    ...The Conservative Marc Jones was re-elected as Police and Crime Commissioner for Lincolnshire for a third term.

    But the party's vote share fell by 23% with Labour up 10% and Reform increasing by 11%, beating the Lib Dems into third.
    ..

    Cumbria also 20% plus I think, with Labour winning.
    Cumbria PCC Election Result:

    🌹 LAB: 47.4% (+21.3)
    🌳 CON: 30.4% (-23.2)
    🔶 LDM: 22.2% (+1.8)

    Labour GAIN from Conservative.
    Changes w/ 2021.


    Though hard to say much with such low turnout elections except that Lab voters are keener to turnout than Con.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,520

    Heathener said:

    Redditch and Thurrock going to Labour

    Really interesting how well Labour are doing in Leave voting areas

    DM_Andy said:

    Penny Watch: Out of the seven wards in Portsmouth North, six have declared and the Tories haven't won any, all three defences so far lost (though their best seat from 2021 is the one outstanding). The benefit is going to the Portsmouth Independent Party, adding Copnor, Cosham and Hilsea to the Paulsgrove seat they already had.

    She’s in trouble, isn’t she?

    There might be a few in CCHQ who will be happy about it. Going on manoeuvres against an incumbent doesn’t go down well.
    No, I don't think she's in trouble. I expect her to comfortably hold her seat at the GE based on the polling.
    Ooooh I rarely do this but let’s stop all this bickering between us and go to a bet?

    I’m not betting much because I prefer going through bookies but £10 straight 50:50 win or lose Penny Mordaunt. Do we have a deal?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,555
    ToryJim said:



    Nigelb said:

    BBC
    ..Some blistering criticism from long-standing Tory commentator Tim Montgomerie who tells the BBC he believes the prime minister's time is up and the swing against Conservatives in recent by-elections has been "sustained".

    "Personally I think the results are so bad," Montgomerie says. "I just don't think he is connected with the voters.

    "I think he should go."

    Montgomerie hints he has been told Tories are waiting to find out the mayoral results before deciding their next steps..

    Those people who think that keep changing the leader will eventually give you the magic formula to winning the election are not exactly the most hinged specimens of humanity. There’s precious little evidence that another change would improve the situation and plenty of reasons to think it would make it worse. Those wanting rid of Sunak are like someone wittling a piece of wood but it never looks right so the keep going until eventually all they have is a pile of wood chips and nothing to show for it.
    That's likely true (and he's already pandering as much as he can, what woukd a new leader do?), but with horror show results also likely desperation is expected.

    Friday afternoon could be even worse than Friday morning. 50% losses at the GE looking very promising.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,463
    ToryJim said:



    Nigelb said:

    BBC
    ..Some blistering criticism from long-standing Tory commentator Tim Montgomerie who tells the BBC he believes the prime minister's time is up and the swing against Conservatives in recent by-elections has been "sustained".

    "Personally I think the results are so bad," Montgomerie says. "I just don't think he is connected with the voters.

    "I think he should go."

    Montgomerie hints he has been told Tories are waiting to find out the mayoral results before deciding their next steps..

    Those people who think that keep changing the leader will eventually give you the magic formula to winning the election are not exactly the most hinged specimens of humanity...
    Indeed - but they're overrepresented on the Tory benches.

  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,111
    Heathener said:

    The size of the Blackpool South win is what Labour needed to grasp positive headlines for themselves.

    If other things now go wrong for them in next two days, Mayor’s, their underperforming NEV share, they have at least got something good from this.

    Seriously, seriously, you are looking at this through fantastically blue tint specs.

    Not everything will go Labour’s way during these two or three days but they are basically, so far, very good results for Labour and pretty terrible for the Conservatives.

    Much as expected and much as the national opinion polls have been showing.
    Yup.

    Cut through any spin. This is absolutely correct.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,002
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Redditch and Thurrock going to Labour

    Really interesting how well Labour are doing in Leave voting areas

    DM_Andy said:

    Penny Watch: Out of the seven wards in Portsmouth North, six have declared and the Tories haven't won any, all three defences so far lost (though their best seat from 2021 is the one outstanding). The benefit is going to the Portsmouth Independent Party, adding Copnor, Cosham and Hilsea to the Paulsgrove seat they already had.

    She’s in trouble, isn’t she?

    There might be a few in CCHQ who will be happy about it. Going on manoeuvres against an incumbent doesn’t go down well.
    No, I don't think she's in trouble. I expect her to comfortably hold her seat at the GE based on the polling.
    Ooooh I rarely do this but let’s stop all this bickering between us and go to a bet?

    I’m not betting much because I prefer going through bookies but £10 straight 50:50 win or lose Penny Mordaunt. Do we have a deal?
    Penny would be more likely to hold her seat if she is in number 10.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,520

    Heathener said:

    Looking at the London 2021 election results, and how Shaun Bailey overperformed, and the MoE in the polling then, it is conceivable that Khan is hovering between 37-38% of the vote and Hall on 35-36% of the vote, if turnout is very poor for him and she's got her vote out. YouGov polls keep overcooking Reform whereas Savanta and Redfield & Wilton had Hall in the low 30s just a few weeks ago.

    So, I can just about believe it's close. It's even conceivable it's very close.

    Frankly I think you are desperately grasping at straws and failing to read the mood.

    I may be wrong but I doubt it’s going to be anywhere near close in London
    I'm looking at the polls

    Well you are evidently aren’t. Most of the polls gave Khan c. 20% leads and then one comes along at c. 10% and you leap all over it as “evidence” that it’s neck-and-neck? I’m sorry but in betting terms this is myopic: seeing what one wants to and latching onto it.

    Susan Hall might win but on polling alone it cannot be much better than a c. 5% chance.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,520
    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Redditch and Thurrock going to Labour

    Really interesting how well Labour are doing in Leave voting areas

    DM_Andy said:

    Penny Watch: Out of the seven wards in Portsmouth North, six have declared and the Tories haven't won any, all three defences so far lost (though their best seat from 2021 is the one outstanding). The benefit is going to the Portsmouth Independent Party, adding Copnor, Cosham and Hilsea to the Paulsgrove seat they already had.

    She’s in trouble, isn’t she?

    There might be a few in CCHQ who will be happy about it. Going on manoeuvres against an incumbent doesn’t go down well.
    No, I don't think she's in trouble. I expect her to comfortably hold her seat at the GE based on the polling.
    Ooooh I rarely do this but let’s stop all this bickering between us and go to a bet?

    I’m not betting much because I prefer going through bookies but £10 straight 50:50 win or lose Penny Mordaunt. Do we have a deal?
    Penny would be more likely to hold her seat if she is in number 10.
    Agreed
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    kle4 said:

    ToryJim said:



    Nigelb said:

    BBC
    ..Some blistering criticism from long-standing Tory commentator Tim Montgomerie who tells the BBC he believes the prime minister's time is up and the swing against Conservatives in recent by-elections has been "sustained".

    "Personally I think the results are so bad," Montgomerie says. "I just don't think he is connected with the voters.

    "I think he should go."

    Montgomerie hints he has been told Tories are waiting to find out the mayoral results before deciding their next steps..

    Those people who think that keep changing the leader will eventually give you the magic formula to winning the election are not exactly the most hinged specimens of humanity. There’s precious little evidence that another change would improve the situation and plenty of reasons to think it would make it worse. Those wanting rid of Sunak are like someone wittling a piece of wood but it never looks right so the keep going until eventually all they have is a pile of wood chips and nothing to show for it.
    That's likely true (and he's already pandering as much as he can, what woukd a new leader do?), but with horror show results also likely desperation is expected.

    Friday afternoon could be even worse than Friday morning. 50% losses at the GE looking very promising.
    Panic is not the progenitor of good decisions.
  • Options
    CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 399
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Looking at the London 2021 election results, and how Shaun Bailey overperformed, and the MoE in the polling then, it is conceivable that Khan is hovering between 37-38% of the vote and Hall on 35-36% of the vote, if turnout is very poor for him and she's got her vote out. YouGov polls keep overcooking Reform whereas Savanta and Redfield & Wilton had Hall in the low 30s just a few weeks ago.

    So, I can just about believe it's close. It's even conceivable it's very close.

    Frankly I think you are desperately grasping at straws and failing to read the mood.

    I may be wrong but I doubt it’s going to be anywhere near close in London
    I'm looking at the polls

    Well you are evidently aren’t. Most of the polls gave Khan c. 20% leads and then one comes along at c. 10% and you leap all over it as “evidence” that it’s neck-and-neck? I’m sorry but in betting terms this is myopic: seeing what one wants to and latching onto it.

    Susan Hall might win but on polling alone it cannot be much better than a c. 5% chance.
    This page is rife with confirmation bias....explaining why the numbers aren't the numbers. I can't think of anything wose for betting. We have to be ever vigilant to maintain objectivity. I come to this page exactly because, while not immune to confirmation bias, betters will at least try to protect their investments from it. 🤣🤣🤣
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,252

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I wouldn't be backing Khan at 1.05 - that's certainly not value.

    He should probably be at 1.25 to 1.3 based on current information.
    I'm no Khan fan, but he's a lot better than an 80% chance to hold on
    I'm not sure based on current information.
    “Current information” = please save my bet
    The concept of a value loser is clearly alien to you.
    A bet on Susan Hall is just a regular loser.

    You’ve just berated Heathener for not providing any analysis. What’s your analysis for Hall having a better chance than a snowball in Hell?
    I have provided my analysis upthread. This isn't a prediction of what will happen but a scenario of how it credibly could happen. Heatherner responded with ad hominem, because that's all she has, and it's rather interesting you row in behind her on it rather than look at what i said.

    Elsewhere in this thread there a few rumours from campaign sources on Twitter (admittedly these may be unfounded) and Khan's campaign was releasing late messages to drive turnout in his core base yesterday - not usually a sign of confidence the incumbent is going to knock it out the park. There is some evidence of much wider MoE in mayoral polling, Bailey ran it much closer than expected last time despite being a poor candidate, and voter behaviour can be more focused on individuals (either positively or negatively) rather than on party.

    The concept of a value loser is that you expect to lose the bet but you still make it because the price doesn't match the real odds of it happening. Over time, and a portfolio of bets, some will come right and you will be in profit.

    Do I think Susan Hall will win? No. Am I still happy to put a bet on because I think she has a greater than 5% chance? Yes.

    Stranger bets have come in before and I have the scars on my back from missing out by, in the past, adopting the same logic as you.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,252
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I don't know, sorry. Got woken up by various bits ouching and am a bit frazzled. Am not really capable of interpreting low signal/noise data. Will make more sense in morning. Intended Hall bet as shits-n-giggles bet. Apols if stupid. ☹️
    It's not necessarily a stupid idea depending on what this chatter is based on, assuming it is based on anything at all.
    It was coming from all parties shortly after 10, presumably as their election workers got back to base.

    There’s been shock results before, will be shock results again, it’s not that big a deal.

    Would mean though that rather than a flash in the plan, Uxbridge was a beacon to a Tory mayor victory.
    The Ulez furore was at its height and has since somewhat abated.

    Anecdote. My bro’ who lives in outer London was furious about ulez and with Sadiq. Doesn’t much like him and, at the time, said he would never vote for him again.

    Yesterday he voted for Sadiq Khan.
    I have to shake my head at anybody who looks at Susan Hall and thinks that would be good for our city. Ulez or not, she comes across as profoundly incompetent. Typical populist: all emotion and division, zero governance or implementation. It would have been a disaster for London.
    Yes that was essentially my brother’s view. Doesn’t much like Khan but thinks Susan Hall was an abysmal tory selection.
    Who cares what your brother thinks?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,081
    Sir John on the locals so far:

    We now have detailed figures for over 300 local council keywards, and declarations of the outcomes in over 30 councils. We are witnessing a swing from Conservative to Labour since 2021 on average of 10% so far and a more modest swing of 1% since last year.

    These figures are being translated into a high rate of Conservative losses.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,762
    https://www.thepinknews.com/2024/05/02/george-galloway/

    “The MP for Rochdale told Novara Media founder Aaron Bastani that he believed gay relationships are not “normal” and he would not want them to be taught about in schools.”
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,922
    edited May 3

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I don't know, sorry. Got woken up by various bits ouching and am a bit frazzled. Am not really capable of interpreting low signal/noise data. Will make more sense in morning. Intended Hall bet as shits-n-giggles bet. Apols if stupid. ☹️
    It's not necessarily a stupid idea depending on what this chatter is based on, assuming it is based on anything at all.
    It was coming from all parties shortly after 10, presumably as their election workers got back to base.

    There’s been shock results before, will be shock results again, it’s not that big a deal.

    Would mean though that rather than a flash in the plan, Uxbridge was a beacon to a Tory mayor victory.
    The Ulez furore was at its height and has since somewhat abated.

    Anecdote. My bro’ who lives in outer London was furious about ulez and with Sadiq. Doesn’t much like him and, at the time, said he would never vote for him again.

    Yesterday he voted for Sadiq Khan.
    I have to shake my head at anybody who looks at Susan Hall and thinks that would be good for our city. Ulez or not, she comes across as profoundly incompetent. Typical populist: all emotion and division, zero governance or implementation. It would have been a disaster for London.
    Yes that was essentially my brother’s view. Doesn’t much like Khan but thinks Susan Hall was an abysmal tory selection.
    Who cares what your brother thinks?
    Her Mum?

    Come on CR, lighten up. It's springtime! [Looks out of window and decides to go back to bed.]
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,081
    edited May 3

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I wouldn't be backing Khan at 1.05 - that's certainly not value.

    He should probably be at 1.25 to 1.3 based on current information.
    I'm no Khan fan, but he's a lot better than an 80% chance to hold on
    I'm not sure based on current information.
    “Current information” = please save my bet
    The concept of a value loser is clearly alien to you.
    A bet on Susan Hall is just a regular loser.

    You’ve just berated Heathener for not providing any analysis. What’s your analysis for Hall having a better chance than a snowball in Hell?
    I have provided my analysis upthread. This isn't a prediction of what will happen but a scenario of how it credibly could happen. Heatherner responded with ad hominem, because that's all she has, and it's rather interesting you row in behind her on it rather than look at what i said.

    Elsewhere in this thread there a few rumours from campaign sources on Twitter (admittedly these may be unfounded) and Khan's campaign was releasing late messages to drive turnout in his core base yesterday - not usually a sign of confidence the incumbent is going to knock it out the park. There is some evidence of much wider MoE in mayoral polling, Bailey ran it much closer than expected last time despite being a poor candidate, and voter behaviour can be more focused on individuals (either positively or negatively) rather than on party.

    The concept of a value loser is that you expect to lose the bet but you still make it because the price doesn't match the real odds of it happening. Over time, and a portfolio of bets, some will come right and you will be in profit.

    Do I think Susan Hall will win? No. Am I still happy to put a bet on because I think she has a greater than 5% chance? Yes.

    Stranger bets have come in before and I have the scars on my back from missing out by, in the past, adopting the same logic as you.
    Where does Hall get even a 5% chance of winning? In the current political climate, with such a poor candidate?

    It seems to me you are falling for the fallacy of small numbers and assuming that 5% and 0.5% are the same.
  • Options
    CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 399

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I don't know, sorry. Got woken up by various bits ouching and am a bit frazzled. Am not really capable of interpreting low signal/noise data. Will make more sense in morning. Intended Hall bet as shits-n-giggles bet. Apols if stupid. ☹️
    It's not necessarily a stupid idea depending on what this chatter is based on, assuming it is based on anything at all.
    It was coming from all parties shortly after 10, presumably as their election workers got back to base.

    There’s been shock results before, will be shock results again, it’s not that big a deal.

    Would mean though that rather than a flash in the plan, Uxbridge was a beacon to a Tory mayor victory.
    The Ulez furore was at its height and has since somewhat abated.

    Anecdote. My bro’ who lives in outer London was furious about ulez and with Sadiq. Doesn’t much like him and, at the time, said he would never vote for him again.

    Yesterday he voted for Sadiq Khan.
    I have to shake my head at anybody who looks at Susan Hall and thinks that would be good for our city. Ulez or not, she comes across as profoundly incompetent. Typical populist: all emotion and division, zero governance or implementation. It would have been a disaster for London.
    Yes that was essentially my brother’s view. Doesn’t much like Khan but thinks Susan Hall was an abysmal tory selection.
    Who cares what your brother thinks?
    Charming comment.... not
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,919
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    One of the interesting aspects so far is that the Conservatives are faring worse in their former Brexit lands


    A great chart... And a great reason to sell LD seats. They're not getting more than than 24-28.
    It's also a reminder that changing Conservative leader has consequences: right now they're holding up well in the BlueyYellowy Wall, but being hammered in Leavistan. Switch leaders, and you shore up your vote in the North, but run the risk of losing a bunch of seats in Remainia
    The most interesting election for Rishi is his own backwater - North Yorkshire. If he loses the mayoral election there he’s lost core Tory countryside voters
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,002
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Looking at the London 2021 election results, and how Shaun Bailey overperformed, and the MoE in the polling then, it is conceivable that Khan is hovering between 37-38% of the vote and Hall on 35-36% of the vote, if turnout is very poor for him and she's got her vote out. YouGov polls keep overcooking Reform whereas Savanta and Redfield & Wilton had Hall in the low 30s just a few weeks ago.

    So, I can just about believe it's close. It's even conceivable it's very close.

    Frankly I think you are desperately grasping at straws and failing to read the mood.

    I may be wrong but I doubt it’s going to be anywhere near close in London
    I'm looking at the polls

    Well you are evidently aren’t. Most of the polls gave Khan c. 20% leads and then one comes along at c. 10% and you leap all over it as “evidence” that it’s neck-and-neck? I’m sorry but in betting terms this is myopic: seeing what one wants to and latching onto it.

    Susan Hall might win but on polling alone it cannot be much better than a c. 5% chance.
    There is some precedent in that Khan did previously underperform his polling for the first round, but that was under a different voting system, allowing a free hit by putting LD/Green/Binface first then Khan second.

    I reckon pretty safe myself and haven't seen much value in the market. I have a fiver on Khan 35-40% band at 22/1 with Ladbrokes. This is down on his first round share last time, but should still see him home under FPTP.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,252
    Heathener said:

    Sean_F said:

    Heathener said:

    Looking at the London 2021 election results, and how Shaun Bailey overperformed, and the MoE in the polling then, it is conceivable that Khan is hovering between 37-38% of the vote and Hall on 35-36% of the vote, if turnout is very poor for him and she's got her vote out. YouGov polls keep overcooking Reform whereas Savanta and Redfield & Wilton had Hall in the low 30s just a few weeks ago.

    So, I can just about believe it's close. It's even conceivable it's very close.

    Frankly I think you are desperately grasping at straws and failing to read the mood.

    I may be wrong but I doubt it’s going to be anywhere near close in London
    On that, I agree.
    Don't encourage her.
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I don't know, sorry. Got woken up by various bits ouching and am a bit frazzled. Am not really capable of interpreting low signal/noise data. Will make more sense in morning. Intended Hall bet as shits-n-giggles bet. Apols if stupid. ☹️
    It's not necessarily a stupid idea depending on what this chatter is based on, assuming it is based on anything at all.
    It was coming from all parties shortly after 10, presumably as their election workers got back to base.

    There’s been shock results before, will be shock results again, it’s not that big a deal.

    Would mean though that rather than a flash in the plan, Uxbridge was a beacon to a Tory mayor victory.
    The Ulez furore was at its height and has since somewhat abated.

    Anecdote. My bro’ who lives in outer London was furious about ulez and with Sadiq. Doesn’t much like him and, at the time, said he would never vote for him again.

    Yesterday he voted for Sadiq Khan.
    You do love your anecdotes and focus groups of 1 at a time. 🙂

    I don’t disbelieve you. […].
    Thank you and you are quite correct.

    I’m grateful you don’t disbelieve them, because I don’t lie on here. You are equally absolutely right to call it out because these little conversations with people may mean absolutely nothing: potentially worse than ‘voodoo polling.’

    I pass them on because I suspect they are indicative but they might well not be :D

    I can’t entirely work out my Surrey tory friend. She’s something of an enigma. She has voted Cons all her life, loves Boris Johnson and would definitely vote Cons again if he was in charge.

    She intensely dislikes Sunak, thinks he stabbed her beloved Boris in the back, and is suddenly really taken by Keir Starmer. She is likely not to vote Cons for the first time in her life.

    It slightly baffles me but perhaps she is an example of a certain kind of female voter?

    I’ll leave it there for now because if we did all fill these pages with anecdotes it could become misleading and it’s also open to mistruths. And this is a betting site first and foremost.

    xx
    It is, but you think entirely with your heart and disparage in emotional (and often personal) terms anyone who disagrees with you. You never provide any analysis and nor do you outline your own bets or betting strategy.

    For that reason, you are ignored.
    Actually I’m not ignored. A number of people have listened to my tips and made money e.g. my tip that Woking would go LibDem, which it did. @Taz for example listened and made money.

    The one thing I don’t do, or try not to, when betting is using my heart. I always try to bet with my head. Whilst it’s true that my biggest win was on Biden, I also made significant wins betting successfully on Brexit including the exact result of 52-48 and on David Cameron winning in 2015.

    But of course listening to people outside the echo chamber is essential if you’re going to use your head. Watch the opinion polls and pay heed.

    I would suggest that there’s an irony therefore. You are betting with your aspiration not with reality e.g. your belief that Hall is a good bet and your latest “on current information” is almost certainly a shameless attempt to spook the market and save your own stake.
    You are all heart. To the extent you sometimes get it right it's stopped clocks. You only appeared on this site recently and given your penchant for creativity I suspect the past successful bets you highlight are entirely synthesised.

    I have made £52.50 of bets on this election. I have shared all of them. I have shared my strategy. I have shared my analysis. In the case of Khan I laid £10 on him at 1.03, so stand to lose that if he wins (which I expect) but yield £325 if Hall wins. I expect that and accept it. I made the bet as I considered it value. I still expect to be up on my bets overall on the night, which include a string on Khan scoring sub 45% of the vote and a big win on sub 40% which actually moved the market once I'd shared it on here.

    You lack self-awareness and view the world entirely through your own prism, and think others must be the same. Therefore, your posts which are sanctimonious, condescending and impertinent - often all the same time - are hilarious to someone who consistently make £1-£1.5k of profit in betting on politics most years, regardless of the political cycle.

    When you start to achieve the same, maybe I'll start to listen to you a bit more.

  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,111
    Heathener said:

    IanB2 said:



    Meanwhile kudos to Heathener for having a friend or relative in every constituency; our very own one-woman MRP.

    Naughty ;)

    I only really comment on one tory friend who is in Woking and it’s because of her that I correctly predicted that Woking would go LibDem at the local level, which made people like @Taz money last time around.
    (my Londoner brother isn’t a tory)

    I reckon Guildford going LibDem at the GE looks a decent bet too by the way. Parts of SW London down through Surrey and just fringing into Hampshire could be decent yellow bets.
    Absolutely correct. I did. 👍
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,252
    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Looking at the London 2021 election results, and how Shaun Bailey overperformed, and the MoE in the polling then, it is conceivable that Khan is hovering between 37-38% of the vote and Hall on 35-36% of the vote, if turnout is very poor for him and she's got her vote out. YouGov polls keep overcooking Reform whereas Savanta and Redfield & Wilton had Hall in the low 30s just a few weeks ago.

    So, I can just about believe it's close. It's even conceivable it's very close.

    Frankly I think you are desperately grasping at straws and failing to read the mood.

    I may be wrong but I doubt it’s going to be anywhere near close in London
    I'm looking at the polls

    Well you are evidently aren’t. Most of the polls gave Khan c. 20% leads and then one comes along at c. 10% and you leap all over it as “evidence” that it’s neck-and-neck? I’m sorry but in betting terms this is myopic: seeing what one wants to and latching onto it.

    Susan Hall might win but on polling alone it cannot be much better than a c. 5% chance.
    There is some precedent in that Khan did previously underperform his polling for the first round, but that was under a different voting system, allowing a free hit by putting LD/Green/Binface first then Khan second.

    I reckon pretty safe myself and haven't seen much value in the market. I have a fiver on Khan 35-40% band at 22/1 with Ladbrokes. This is down on his first round share last time, but should still see him home under FPTP.
    That was my tip. Glad you took it.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,919
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @robfordmancs
    Tony Blair achieved four 20 point plus swings from Cons when he was opposition leader - Starmer has now achieved five - including four of the top 5 largest ever, all achieved in the last year


    Yep I’m pretty convinced now that it will be 1997 Redux
    I am beginning to think that Starmer may outdo Blair. He maybe shedding votes to the Greens in a few safe seats but the Lab vote is becoming very efficiently distributed for FPTP. Coupled with the implosion of the SNP he could well be on for a record GE swing.
    ...The Conservative Marc Jones was re-elected as Police and Crime Commissioner for Lincolnshire for a third term.

    But the party's vote share fell by 23% with Labour up 10% and Reform increasing by 11%, beating the Lib Dems into third.
    ..

    Cumbria also 20% plus I think, with Labour winning.
    Cumbria PCC Election Result:

    🌹 LAB: 47.4% (+21.3)
    🌳 CON: 30.4% (-23.2)
    🔶 LDM: 22.2% (+1.8)

    Labour GAIN from Conservative.
    Changes w/ 2021.


    Though hard to say much with such low turnout elections except that Lab voters are keener to turnout than Con.
    The argument for Ben Houchen remaining Tees Valley mayor is that Labour voters won’t go out but his will.

    I think it’s a matter of waiting and seeing as all places will have local factors
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    Hmm the BBC don’t appear to be giving the vote tallies in the PCC results, just the top line outcome. Most annoying.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,252
    IanB2 said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I wouldn't be backing Khan at 1.05 - that's certainly not value.

    He should probably be at 1.25 to 1.3 based on current information.
    I'm no Khan fan, but he's a lot better than an 80% chance to hold on
    I'm not sure based on current information.
    “Current information” = please save my bet
    The concept of a value loser is clearly alien to you.
    A bet on Susan Hall is just a regular loser.

    You’ve just berated Heathener for not providing any analysis. What’s your analysis for Hall having a better chance than a snowball in Hell?
    I have provided my analysis upthread. This isn't a prediction of what will happen but a scenario of how it credibly could happen. Heatherner responded with ad hominem, because that's all she has, and it's rather interesting you row in behind her on it rather than look at what i said.

    Elsewhere in this thread there a few rumours from campaign sources on Twitter (admittedly these may be unfounded) and Khan's campaign was releasing late messages to drive turnout in his core base yesterday - not usually a sign of confidence the incumbent is going to knock it out the park. There is some evidence of much wider MoE in mayoral polling, Bailey ran it much closer than expected last time despite being a poor candidate, and voter behaviour can be more focused on individuals (either positively or negatively) rather than on party.

    The concept of a value loser is that you expect to lose the bet but you still make it because the price doesn't match the real odds of it happening. Over time, and a portfolio of bets, some will come right and you will be in profit.

    Do I think Susan Hall will win? No. Am I still happy to put a bet on because I think she has a greater than 5% chance? Yes.

    Stranger bets have come in before and I have the scars on my back from missing out by, in the past, adopting the same logic as you.
    Where does Hall get even a 5% chance of winning? In the current political climate, with such a poor candidate?

    It seems to me you are falling for the fallacy of small numbers and assuming that 5% and 0.5% are the same.
    But, "such a poor candidate" is subjective because you as a LD are repulsed by her policy platform and campaign and can't see past it.

    The important point is whether it drives Tory turnout, and holds onto Reform votes, whilst Khan's vote is depressed as a longstanding incumbent who's built up enmity.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,762

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I wouldn't be backing Khan at 1.05 - that's certainly not value.

    He should probably be at 1.25 to 1.3 based on current information.
    I'm no Khan fan, but he's a lot better than an 80% chance to hold on
    I'm not sure based on current information.
    “Current information” = please save my bet
    The concept of a value loser is clearly alien to you.
    A bet on Susan Hall is just a regular loser.

    You’ve just berated Heathener for not providing any analysis. What’s your analysis for Hall having a better chance than a snowball in Hell?
    I have provided my analysis upthread. This isn't a prediction of what will happen but a scenario of how it credibly could happen. Heatherner responded with ad hominem, because that's all she has, and it's rather interesting you row in behind her on it rather than look at what i said.

    Elsewhere in this thread there a few rumours from campaign sources on Twitter (admittedly these may be unfounded) and Khan's campaign was releasing late messages to drive turnout in his core base yesterday - not usually a sign of confidence the incumbent is going to knock it out the park. There is some evidence of much wider MoE in mayoral polling, Bailey ran it much closer than expected last time despite being a poor candidate, and voter behaviour can be more focused on individuals (either positively or negatively) rather than on party.

    The concept of a value loser is that you expect to lose the bet but you still make it because the price doesn't match the real odds of it happening. Over time, and a portfolio of bets, some will come right and you will be in profit.

    Do I think Susan Hall will win? No. Am I still happy to put a bet on because I think she has a greater than 5% chance? Yes.

    Stranger bets have come in before and I have the scars on my back from missing out by, in the past, adopting the same logic as you.
    My apologies that I missed your earlier reasoning. Lots to catch up on! I don’t find your reasoning persuasive.

    Every poll since October 2023 has had Khan ahead by *more* than the polling error when Bailey stood, I believe. (Every poll has had Khan winning, except a September 2023 poll with a hypothetical Corbyn candidacy.) Bailey may not have been the best candidate, but he was better than Hall.

    Khan’s campaign has, indeed, been routinely saying it’s a close election. It serves their purposes to drive up turnout in their base because of the Assembly elections where, given a proportional system, every counts towards more Labour seats. That’s why they’re saying it.

    Khan won comfortably in 2021 (on first preferences and after the transfer of second preferences) when the Tories were riding high in the polls. The Tories are now plumbing the depths in the polls. Why would London show a swing to the Tories compared to the large swing to Labour nationally?

    ID requirements have been mooted as benefitting Hall. ID requirements don’t seem to have blunted Labour’s performance in Blackpool South or council elections or PCC elections.

    One tweet from “campaign sources” is not persuasive. Khan will beat Hall. (I voted for neither and have no bets on the result.)
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,169
    If I were a political bettor, I would definitely be putting a small amount on Susan Hall. The anti-Khan vote is incredibly motivated and in a low turnout election that could matter a hell of a lot. The general anti-Tory wave should see Khan home but he has next to no personal vote and around a quarter of the London electorate really wants him out. I would not be even remotely surprised if he loses.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,252

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I don't know, sorry. Got woken up by various bits ouching and am a bit frazzled. Am not really capable of interpreting low signal/noise data. Will make more sense in morning. Intended Hall bet as shits-n-giggles bet. Apols if stupid. ☹️
    It's not necessarily a stupid idea depending on what this chatter is based on, assuming it is based on anything at all.
    It was coming from all parties shortly after 10, presumably as their election workers got back to base.

    There’s been shock results before, will be shock results again, it’s not that big a deal.

    Would mean though that rather than a flash in the plan, Uxbridge was a beacon to a Tory mayor victory.
    The Ulez furore was at its height and has since somewhat abated.

    Anecdote. My bro’ who lives in outer London was furious about ulez and with Sadiq. Doesn’t much like him and, at the time, said he would never vote for him again.

    Yesterday he voted for Sadiq Khan.
    I have to shake my head at anybody who looks at Susan Hall and thinks that would be good for our city. Ulez or not, she comes across as profoundly incompetent. Typical populist: all emotion and division, zero governance or implementation. It would have been a disaster for London.
    Yes that was essentially my brother’s view. Doesn’t much like Khan but thinks Susan Hall was an abysmal tory selection.
    Who cares what your brother thinks?
    Her Mum?

    Come on CR, lighten up. It's springtime! [Looks out of window and decides to go back to bed.]
    She pisses me off. And should have much more respect.

    My take is, actually, that's she's a very young Labour activist that is desperate to be taken seriously. In the absence of experience and knowledge, she just has enthusiasm and so makes stuff up and plays the man when it's something she doesn't want to hear.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,559

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I wouldn't be backing Khan at 1.05 - that's certainly not value.

    He should probably be at 1.25 to 1.3 based on current information.
    I'm no Khan fan, but he's a lot better than an 80% chance to hold on
    I'm not sure based on current information.
    “Current information” = please save my bet
    The concept of a value loser is clearly alien to you.
    A bet on Susan Hall is just a regular loser.

    You’ve just berated Heathener for not providing any analysis. What’s your analysis for Hall having a better chance than a snowball in Hell?
    Casino talked about how the Tory candidate out-performed the polls in 2021, and what the polls looked like this time around. Did you look at those numbers?

    In 2021, the closest poll had the Tory 12% behind on first preferences and 18% in the second round. In the end the margin was 4.7% and 10.4% - a miss by nearly 8pp.

    This time, the closest poll has the Tory candidate 13% behind. If that's out by 8pp again then the margin would be 5% - not the blowout win that most people are expecting. The polls might be more accurate this time, or they might be less accurate, but there is prima facie evidence to think that odds of 1.03 for Khan are a bit absurd.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,081
    Interesting that Curtice’s preliminary analysis suggests a swing of just 1% Tory to Labour since last May, yet according to national VI the Tories have fallen from high 20s% then to barely above 20% now.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,300

    And should have much more respect.

    For whom?
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,169
    IanB2 said:

    Sir John on the locals so far:

    We now have detailed figures for over 300 local council keywards, and declarations of the outcomes in over 30 councils. We are witnessing a swing from Conservative to Labour since 2021 on average of 10% so far and a more modest swing of 1% since last year.

    These figures are being translated into a high rate of Conservative losses.

    Clearly, the mayoral elections will be better for the Tories than the council and the PPC ones look like being. But despite the heroic spin we are going to see around that, I don't think it would be wise to read too much into them beyond seeing how important the individual candidates are. Street and Houchen could very well hold on with personal votes. Khan could lose a low turnout London vote because he is actively hated by around a quarter of his electorate. None of this will matter in a GE, though.

  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,922

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I don't know, sorry. Got woken up by various bits ouching and am a bit frazzled. Am not really capable of interpreting low signal/noise data. Will make more sense in morning. Intended Hall bet as shits-n-giggles bet. Apols if stupid. ☹️
    It's not necessarily a stupid idea depending on what this chatter is based on, assuming it is based on anything at all.
    It was coming from all parties shortly after 10, presumably as their election workers got back to base.

    There’s been shock results before, will be shock results again, it’s not that big a deal.

    Would mean though that rather than a flash in the plan, Uxbridge was a beacon to a Tory mayor victory.
    The Ulez furore was at its height and has since somewhat abated.

    Anecdote. My bro’ who lives in outer London was furious about ulez and with Sadiq. Doesn’t much like him and, at the time, said he would never vote for him again.

    Yesterday he voted for Sadiq Khan.
    I have to shake my head at anybody who looks at Susan Hall and thinks that would be good for our city. Ulez or not, she comes across as profoundly incompetent. Typical populist: all emotion and division, zero governance or implementation. It would have been a disaster for London.
    Yes that was essentially my brother’s view. Doesn’t much like Khan but thinks Susan Hall was an abysmal tory selection.
    Who cares what your brother thinks?
    Her Mum?

    Come on CR, lighten up. It's springtime! [Looks out of window and decides to go back to bed.]
    She pisses me off. And should have much more respect.

    My take is, actually, that's she's a very young Labour activist that is desperate to be taken seriously. In the absence of experience and knowledge, she just has enthusiasm and so makes stuff up and plays the man when it's something she doesn't want to hear.
    Sure, but this is PB, CR. Put downs should be witty, as well as wounding.

    See Leon for examples.



    It's stopped raining. Better take the dog for a walk.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,559
    IanB2 said:

    Interesting that Curtice’s preliminary analysis suggests a swing of just 1% Tory to Labour since last May, yet according to national VI the Tories have fallen from high 20s% then to barely above 20% now.

    Obvious explanation is that it's because the swing over the last year has mainly been to Reform, Reform largely aren't standing candidates, and so those voters have voted Tory instead.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,520

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I don't know, sorry. Got woken up by various bits ouching and am a bit frazzled. Am not really capable of interpreting low signal/noise data. Will make more sense in morning. Intended Hall bet as shits-n-giggles bet. Apols if stupid. ☹️
    It's not necessarily a stupid idea depending on what this chatter is based on, assuming it is based on anything at all.
    It was coming from all parties shortly after 10, presumably as their election workers got back to base.

    There’s been shock results before, will be shock results again, it’s not that big a deal.

    Would mean though that rather than a flash in the plan, Uxbridge was a beacon to a Tory mayor victory.
    The Ulez furore was at its height and has since somewhat abated.

    Anecdote. My bro’ who lives in outer London was furious about ulez and with Sadiq. Doesn’t much like him and, at the time, said he would never vote for him again.

    Yesterday he voted for Sadiq Khan.
    I have to shake my head at anybody who looks at Susan Hall and thinks that would be good for our city. Ulez or not, she comes across as profoundly incompetent. Typical populist: all emotion and division, zero governance or implementation. It would have been a disaster for London.
    Yes that was essentially my brother’s view. Doesn’t much like Khan but thinks Susan Hall was an abysmal tory selection.
    Who cares what your brother thinks?
    Her Mum?

    Come on CR, lighten up. It's springtime! [Looks out of window and decides to go back to bed.]
    She pisses me off. And should have much more respect.

    My take is, actually, that's she's a very young Labour activist that is desperate to be taken seriously. In the absence of experience and knowledge, she just has enthusiasm and so makes stuff up and plays the man when it's something she doesn't want to hear.
    I think you’re far too emotionally invested in me tbh. It comes across as slightly unhinged. You do tend to fly off the handle, not just with me, very readily?

    Just tone it down and don’t let me ‘piss you off’. We’re all entitled to varying viewpoints on here and it’s what enriches this place. There really isn’t any need to get so personal or personally vexed about it.

    xx
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,252
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Looking at the London 2021 election results, and how Shaun Bailey overperformed, and the MoE in the polling then, it is conceivable that Khan is hovering between 37-38% of the vote and Hall on 35-36% of the vote, if turnout is very poor for him and she's got her vote out. YouGov polls keep overcooking Reform whereas Savanta and Redfield & Wilton had Hall in the low 30s just a few weeks ago.

    So, I can just about believe it's close. It's even conceivable it's very close.

    Frankly I think you are desperately grasping at straws and failing to read the mood.

    I may be wrong but I doubt it’s going to be anywhere near close in London
    I'm looking at the polls

    Well you are evidently aren’t. Most of the polls gave Khan c. 20% leads and then one comes along at c. 10% and you leap all over it as “evidence” that it’s neck-and-neck? I’m sorry but in betting terms this is myopic: seeing what one wants to and latching onto it.

    Susan Hall might win but on polling alone it cannot be much better than a c. 5% chance.
    You're clearly not capable of reading English.

    My post upthread set out an analysis of how it was conceivable it was close, with ifs. Those ifs were based on Yougov being out (which has been discussed on this thread and many others) due to their panel selection and method, and consistent overreporting of Reform compared to real votes. I cited too other pollsters in recent weeks who had Hall at 30%+. And I also highlighted how with depressed turnout for Khan, and a similar overperformance for her as for Bailey last time, it could end up being close - even very close.

    Now, I might be wrong. I might be very wrong. But part of my betting strategy is to set out scenarios as to how things could happen, because that helps me assess if there's any value or merit in the information that comes our way. There are also at least two other pb'ers who've done the same as me and laid Khan at very short odds because they shared the view it was value.

    At some level you accept this because you have a telling note in your post that she 'might' win but for you this is about scoring some hits on someone you perceive as your political opponent, and others know it too because that's why you're scoring up a few likes for it on top.
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,951
    Can someone point me to why we think Hall is going to win London before I put a fiver on it? Has there been word from one of the camps or some sort of quasi-exit polling?
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,762

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I wouldn't be backing Khan at 1.05 - that's certainly not value.

    He should probably be at 1.25 to 1.3 based on current information.
    I'm no Khan fan, but he's a lot better than an 80% chance to hold on
    I'm not sure based on current information.
    “Current information” = please save my bet
    The concept of a value loser is clearly alien to you.
    A bet on Susan Hall is just a regular loser.

    You’ve just berated Heathener for not providing any analysis. What’s your analysis for Hall having a better chance than a snowball in Hell?
    Casino talked about how the Tory candidate out-performed the polls in 2021, and what the polls looked like this time around. Did you look at those numbers?

    In 2021, the closest poll had the Tory 12% behind on first preferences and 18% in the second round. In the end the margin was 4.7% and 10.4% - a miss by nearly 8pp.

    This time, the closest poll has the Tory candidate 13% behind. If that's out by 8pp again then the margin would be 5% - not the blowout win that most people are expecting. The polls might be more accurate this time, or they might be less accurate, but there is prima facie evidence to think that odds of 1.03 for Khan are a bit absurd.
    Polling errors are usually not in the same direction from election to election, because the pollsters try to fix them. But if you believe the same will happen… sure, you can do the maths and you still get a Khan win! For Hall to win, you need a considerably larger polling error, one that seems unprecedented.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,043

    https://www.thepinknews.com/2024/05/02/george-galloway/

    “The MP for Rochdale told Novara Media founder Aaron Bastani that he believed gay relationships are not “normal” and he would not want them to be taught about in schools.”

    There is a reason I have the profile picture I have. Galloway stood up in the Commons a few days ago listing Rochdale's past shame. Ignoring that he is Rochdale's current shame and will feature on a future list recited by a future MP.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,520

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Looking at the London 2021 election results, and how Shaun Bailey overperformed, and the MoE in the polling then, it is conceivable that Khan is hovering between 37-38% of the vote and Hall on 35-36% of the vote, if turnout is very poor for him and she's got her vote out. YouGov polls keep overcooking Reform whereas Savanta and Redfield & Wilton had Hall in the low 30s just a few weeks ago.

    So, I can just about believe it's close. It's even conceivable it's very close.

    Frankly I think you are desperately grasping at straws and failing to read the mood.

    I may be wrong but I doubt it’s going to be anywhere near close in London
    I'm looking at the polls

    Well you are evidently aren’t. Most of the polls gave Khan c. 20% leads and then one comes along at c. 10% and you leap all over it as “evidence” that it’s neck-and-neck? I’m sorry but in betting terms this is myopic: seeing what one wants to and latching onto it.

    Susan Hall might win but on polling alone it cannot be much better than a c. 5% chance.
    You're clearly not capable of reading English.

    You really need to take it easy. I’ve seen you do this with a number of other people on here. It’s like some red mist descends.

    Go make yourself a cuppa and chill. It’s just a betting site. It’s only politics. And I’m just trying to reflect what I think is the state of play and, yep, I could be wrong.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,252

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I wouldn't be backing Khan at 1.05 - that's certainly not value.

    He should probably be at 1.25 to 1.3 based on current information.
    I'm no Khan fan, but he's a lot better than an 80% chance to hold on
    I'm not sure based on current information.
    “Current information” = please save my bet
    The concept of a value loser is clearly alien to you.
    A bet on Susan Hall is just a regular loser.

    You’ve just berated Heathener for not providing any analysis. What’s your analysis for Hall having a better chance than a snowball in Hell?
    Casino talked about how the Tory candidate out-performed the polls in 2021, and what the polls looked like this time around. Did you look at those numbers?

    In 2021, the closest poll had the Tory 12% behind on first preferences and 18% in the second round. In the end the margin was 4.7% and 10.4% - a miss by nearly 8pp.

    This time, the closest poll has the Tory candidate 13% behind. If that's out by 8pp again then the margin would be 5% - not the blowout win that most people are expecting. The polls might be more accurate this time, or they might be less accurate, but there is prima facie evidence to think that odds of 1.03 for Khan are a bit absurd.
    Polling errors are usually not in the same direction from election to election, because the pollsters try to fix them. But if you believe the same will happen… sure, you can do the maths and you still get a Khan win! For Hall to win, you need a considerably larger polling error, one that seems unprecedented.
    That can be true, yes. Is there any evidence pollsters have adjusted their method for the London mayoral election since 2021, though?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,081
    edited May 3

    IanB2 said:

    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    If I had a Betfair Exchange account I'd take the £19 on Susan Hall. Not in any knowledge of win or loss, but simply on the grounds that the chatter is too negative to ignore a value bet at small prices.

    Yes but what is the chatter based on? They are not counting yet. It might be that Sadiq at 1.05 is the value, or perhaps vote share or winning margin. There again, it turns out I made a small bet on Susan Hall months ago which gives me the luxury of not reacting now. (Not at 30 like Anabobazina, sadly.)
    I wouldn't be backing Khan at 1.05 - that's certainly not value.

    He should probably be at 1.25 to 1.3 based on current information.
    I'm no Khan fan, but he's a lot better than an 80% chance to hold on
    I'm not sure based on current information.
    “Current information” = please save my bet
    The concept of a value loser is clearly alien to you.
    A bet on Susan Hall is just a regular loser.

    You’ve just berated Heathener for not providing any analysis. What’s your analysis for Hall having a better chance than a snowball in Hell?
    I have provided my analysis upthread. This isn't a prediction of what will happen but a scenario of how it credibly could happen. Heatherner responded with ad hominem, because that's all she has, and it's rather interesting you row in behind her on it rather than look at what i said.

    Elsewhere in this thread there a few rumours from campaign sources on Twitter (admittedly these may be unfounded) and Khan's campaign was releasing late messages to drive turnout in his core base yesterday - not usually a sign of confidence the incumbent is going to knock it out the park. There is some evidence of much wider MoE in mayoral polling, Bailey ran it much closer than expected last time despite being a poor candidate, and voter behaviour can be more focused on individuals (either positively or negatively) rather than on party.

    The concept of a value loser is that you expect to lose the bet but you still make it because the price doesn't match the real odds of it happening. Over time, and a portfolio of bets, some will come right and you will be in profit.

    Do I think Susan Hall will win? No. Am I still happy to put a bet on because I think she has a greater than 5% chance? Yes.

    Stranger bets have come in before and I have the scars on my back from missing out by, in the past, adopting the same logic as you.
    Where does Hall get even a 5% chance of winning? In the current political climate, with such a poor candidate?

    It seems to me you are falling for the fallacy of small numbers and assuming that 5% and 0.5% are the same.
    But, "such a poor candidate" is subjective because you as a LD are repulsed by her policy platform and campaign and can't see past it.

    The important point is whether it drives Tory turnout, and holds onto Reform votes, whilst Khan's vote is depressed as a longstanding incumbent who's built up enmity.
    Yes, but I still feel you’re struggling to make a sensible estimate because the probability is so low. With value betting it makes a big difference whether the chance is 5% or 0.5%.

    You can lose a lot of money in poker fishing for the gunshot straight card, if you haven’t done the sums.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,002

    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Looking at the London 2021 election results, and how Shaun Bailey overperformed, and the MoE in the polling then, it is conceivable that Khan is hovering between 37-38% of the vote and Hall on 35-36% of the vote, if turnout is very poor for him and she's got her vote out. YouGov polls keep overcooking Reform whereas Savanta and Redfield & Wilton had Hall in the low 30s just a few weeks ago.

    So, I can just about believe it's close. It's even conceivable it's very close.

    Frankly I think you are desperately grasping at straws and failing to read the mood.

    I may be wrong but I doubt it’s going to be anywhere near close in London
    I'm looking at the polls

    Well you are evidently aren’t. Most of the polls gave Khan c. 20% leads and then one comes along at c. 10% and you leap all over it as “evidence” that it’s neck-and-neck? I’m sorry but in betting terms this is myopic: seeing what one wants to and latching onto it.

    Susan Hall might win but on polling alone it cannot be much better than a c. 5% chance.
    There is some precedent in that Khan did previously underperform his polling for the first round, but that was under a different voting system, allowing a free hit by putting LD/Green/Binface first then Khan second.

    I reckon pretty safe myself and haven't seen much value in the market. I have a fiver on Khan 35-40% band at 22/1 with Ladbrokes. This is down on his first round share last time, but should still see him home under FPTP.
    That was my tip. Glad you took it.
    Yes, it was well spotted.

    Still a winning position though.
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,762
    IanB2 said:

    Interesting that Curtice’s preliminary analysis suggests a swing of just 1% Tory to Labour since last May, yet according to national VI the Tories have fallen from high 20s% then to barely above 20% now.

    We come back to Reform, of course. The Tory vote slide in recent months has been losing votes to Reform. Reform are doing well in these elections, when they stand, but they’re more often not standing. Does that explain the difference? Reform voters will return to the Tories if there’s no Reform candidate? I presume the psephologists will be able to crunch the numbers in due course and say more.
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