As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
... So he won't be visiting the palace win or lose?
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
Someone has snorted too many lines of Colombian sherbert
I'd absolutely LMAO if they won London, but that seems delusional.
It’s the bunker scene in Downfall on steroids level delusional. They are suggesting one of the biggest polling misfires in history.
If only Corbyn (the less loony one) had run, maybe Hall would have been in with a chance.
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
Someone has snorted too many lines of Colombian sherbert
I'd absolutely LMAO if they won London, but that seems delusional.
It’s the bunker scene in Downfall on steroids level delusional. They are suggesting one of the biggest polling misfires in history.
If only Corbyn (the less loony one) had run, maybe Hall would have been in with a chance.
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
If they win London it is definitively a narrative shifter, if not a poll shifter
Absolutely. And it’s not even that much of a shock to see Khan pipped, due to 3rd Term winners not really wanted and outer London could be happier to turn out against him than complacency and apathy and anti Labour/Starmer anger in inner London skewing the polls and producing this win.
Vote Khan (labour), get Starmer’s Gaza policy is a key vote depressor to watch for across the election tonight.
Elections do throw up surprise wins, and often it’s to do with not getting your vote out that can happen disproportionately. That is likely what has happened here if Khan has lost.
I’d have more time for the rumour if they said they have a chance . Utterly convinced would mean Khans vote would need to collapse. I just don’t see it .
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
Add in the Tory candidate is crap and has no real name recognition / somebody who could be seen as distinct from the main party in the way Andy Street can.
Oxford and Rochdale earmarked as poor Labour results- means Galloway would be getting some councillors
I don't think so. The issue in Oxford is vote fragmentation, it's more likely that the controversy over traffic calming measures has split Labour's vote, with those in favour of it going Lib Dem and Green, those against it going to the Motoring Rights Party sorry I mean Oxford Independent Alliance, and thus someone winning on 25-30% of the vote, at which point it's almost a roll of the dice.
I’d have more time for the rumour if they said they have a chance . Utterly convinced would mean Khans vote would need to collapse. I just don’t see it .
Another CCHQ source gets in touch to dispute any claim that they are “chipper”.
They are also much more cautious about the London mayoral result.
I'm trying to think of genuinely massive upsets of recent memory.
I (and most people besides HYUFD) thought Uxbridge was an easy win for Labin 2023, but was it 'massive'?
Some huge LD gains, but those were kind of expected. 2015 a Tory majority was not the exit poll call, but the end result was not massively out was it? Lots of people thought Remain would win because they did not read AndyJS's spreadsheet of the early results, but there was always a chance Leave would win and many predicting it.
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
Well quite. I can buy closer than anticipated but the idea that Susan Hall can buck the twin factors of a city that is trending Labour and catastrophically abysmal polling is laughable.
Is it just that I have been super busy and lots of other things are hogging the news agenda, but the things like London Mayoral race seem to have had low national coverage. I think back to Red Ken vs Boris and it was wall to wall stuff.
Hall winning London would obviously be terrible for Labour, but in the long run, having someone as "eccentric" as her wouldn't be good for the Tories either.
Or maybe it's just some 4D chess move to try and control the narrative which we'll all have forgotten about when Khan is elected Emperor of London. Surely he can't lose? Surely? Against *that*?
I'm trying to think of genuinely massive upsets of recent memory.
I (and most people besides HYUFD) thought Uxbridge was an easy win for Labin 2023, but was it 'massive'?
Some huge LD gains, but those were kind of expected. 2015 a Tory majority was not the exit poll call, but the end result was not massively out was it? Lots of people thought Remain would win because they did not read AndyJS's spreadsheet of the early results, but there was always a chance Leave would win and many predicting it.
The only time I really thought Leave couldn’t win was after Jo Cox’s murder. I had put down a reasonably sized bet on Leave at the shortest price they’d been (2.4?) about half an hour before it happened.
Two results in and it was obvious we had won, but instead of pressing I chickened out and laid some back
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
Well quite. I can buy closer than anticipated but the idea that Susan Hall can buck the twin factors of a city that is trending Labour and catastrophically abysmal polling is laughable.
Never mind a GE being called immediately if she wins, they need to install her as leader of the party and prospective PM if she does.
I'm trying to think of genuinely massive upsets of recent memory.
I (and most people besides HYUFD) thought Uxbridge was an easy win for Labin 2023, but was it 'massive'?
Some huge LD gains, but those were kind of expected. 2015 a Tory majority was not the exit poll call, but the end result was not massively out was it? Lots of people thought Remain would win because they did not read AndyJS's spreadsheet of the early results, but there was always a chance Leave would win and many predicting it.
2017 - by the end, the polls were pointing to a Conservative majority of 30-40, but 317 seats is not a massive failure.
Big personal vote for Street likely 'He has the highest net favourability (+20) of everyone we polled in this research, better than Keir Starmer (+3), Richard Parker (+14 but with a huge amount of Don’t Knows) and Rishi Sunak (-27). Street is more popular in the West Midlands than Sadiq Khan (+2) is in London, who is likely to romp home in his re-election campaign.
But he’s not just popular; the people of the West Midlands also think that Street has done a good job, too. Two in five (41 per cent) say they’re satisfied with his performance as Mayor, and only 18 per cent say they’re not. Again, the comparison with Khan is entirely favourable to Street – despite his high chance of re-election, just 33 per cent are satisfied with Khan’s performance versus 40 per cent who aren’t.' https://conservativehome.com/2024/05/02/chris-hopkins-sunaks-premiership-may-well-ride-on-how-successfully-street-disavows-him/
I am going to bed, confident in the knowledge that when I wake up, Susan Hall will not have won the London mayoralty... because they don't f***ing count until Saturday.
Everyone has got rather excited by the entertaining notion that Trump Hall has won London. But the source that the Usherwood had has been discounted by everyone else's sources. So lets assume not.
But Blackpool? I said ages ago that ReFUK could do very well as its almost a perfect seat for them. And I assume the guy briefing the Times is actually from the party in person at the count...
If London is closer that it looked, doesn’t it really show that they were idiots not to find a decent “independent-ish” Tory with name recognition? They will be kicking themselves.
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
Not really a shock. constituencies have unique make up. Labour have had dozens of councillors resigning on just one issue, so it’s hard to get out the similar minded voters out again Khan had last time. London won’t be the only constituency Labour have lost because this issue today - this point I’m making was given a headline on the itv ten o’clock news earlier, so it’s not just me saying watch for it.
Given the overwhelming evidence that lack of sleep is bad for your health we all know what is going to happen tonight. The Conservatives will lose pretty heavily and the evidence will point in only direction; Labour with sizeable majority in the General Election.
Help the NHS, go to bed early and dont waste your time staying up.
If London is closer that it looked, doesn’t it really show that they were idiots not to find a decent “independent-ish” Tory with name recognition? They will be kicking themselves.
If I remember correctly, those that stood for the candidacy were all poor and certainly didn't match that criteria.
If London is closer that it looked, doesn’t it really show that they were idiots not to find a decent “independent-ish” Tory with name recognition? They will be kicking themselves.
If I remember correctly, those that stood for the candidacy were all poor and certainly didn't match that criteria.
The candidate that was best placed to beat Khan had to withdraw over a sex allegation .
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
Everyone has got rather excited by the entertaining notion that Trump Hall has won London. But the source that the Usherwood had has been discounted by everyone else's sources. So lets assume not.
But Blackpool? I said ages ago that ReFUK could do very well as its almost a perfect seat for them. And I assume the guy briefing the Times is actually from the party in person at the count...
Blackpool was 67.5% Leave, if Reform can't beat the Tories there, where can they?
Given the overwhelming evidence that lack of sleep is bad for your health we all know what is going to happen tonight. The Conservatives will lose pretty heavily and the evidence will point in only direction; Labour with sizeable majority in the General Election.
Help the NHS, go to bed early and dont waste your time staying up.
For shame.
I will still get the same amount of sleep, just during the day.
What's the reason for not counting the London mayoral race tonight?
They need all the staff on hand to screen out the 15m Lutfur Rahman write-in ballots first.
I still maintain some offences should result in permanent punishment. Being found guilty of corrupt electoral practices should mean you never get another opportunity to corrupt an election (at least for yourself) ever again.
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
Not really a shock. constituencies have unique make up. Labour have had dozens of councillors resigning on just one issue, so it’s hard to get out the similar minded voters out again Khan had last time. London won’t be the only constituency Labour have lost because this issue today - this point I’m making was given a headline on the itv ten o’clock news earlier, so it’s not just me saying watch for it.
You seem to be saying that you think Hall has won London? If you do, you can still back her at 17.0 on BX. Presumably you have shovelled your shirt (blouse?) on it?
Given the overwhelming evidence that lack of sleep is bad for your health we all know what is going to happen tonight. The Conservatives will lose pretty heavily and the evidence will point in only direction; Labour with sizeable majority in the General Election.
Help the NHS, go to bed early and dont waste your time staying up.
For shame.
I will still get the same amount of sleep, just during the day.
I’m staying upto to around 3.30 am . Some key results should be in by then .
Seems like the Tories were looking for somebody who was high profile / more independent,
The Telegraph last week reported that the Tories were on the hunt for a “high-profile” celebrity candidate to run against Mr Khan. However, Mr Norris said it was always difficult to get celebrities or well-known business people to throw their hat into the ring.
Seems like the Tories were looking for somebody who was high profile / more independent,
The Telegraph last week reported that the Tories were on the hunt for a “high-profile” celebrity candidate to run against Mr Khan. However, Mr Norris said it was always difficult to get celebrities or well-known business people to throw their hat into the ring.
Given the overwhelming evidence that lack of sleep is bad for your health we all know what is going to happen tonight. The Conservatives will lose pretty heavily and the evidence will point in only direction; Labour with sizeable majority in the General Election.
Help the NHS, go to bed early and dont waste your time staying up.
Everyone has got rather excited by the entertaining notion that Trump Hall has won London. But the source that the Usherwood had has been discounted by everyone else's sources. So lets assume not.
But Blackpool? I said ages ago that ReFUK could do very well as its almost a perfect seat for them. And I assume the guy briefing the Times is actually from the party in person at the count...
Blackpool was 67.5% Leave, if Reform can't beat the Tories there, where can they?
We had this discussion earlier. If you want to breathe in the hopium that unless the Fukkers actually beat you they aren't a threat, then please feel free.
We just won't allow you any credibility as a political analyst.
Labour now saying London will be 'very very close'
Bullshit.
Why do parties engage in this sort of expectations management?
Oh I don't know. Low turnout, assumed foregone conclusion leading to unenthused Labour voters deciding to vote Green, Lib Dem or Binface. If the votes are split then the Tory can win on a low vote.
Seems like the Tories were looking for somebody who was high profile / more independent,
The Telegraph last week reported that the Tories were on the hunt for a “high-profile” celebrity candidate to run against Mr Khan. However, Mr Norris said it was always difficult to get celebrities or well-known business people to throw their hat into the ring.
I always expected Alan Sugar to stand sometime, and he probably would have won if he had, regardless of party.
I don't know. I think there is a tonne of manure that could be thrown at him, and when he was made a Lord, he didn't exactly embrace his place in the HoLs. Does he even spend that much time in the UK these days?
I imagine if I was him I would prefer not to have the media dig through everything you ever done and said. Look at what happened to Trump. Much better to have your popular tv show and from time to time spout off on how crap politicians are for business.
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
Their pollster mistakenly used a sample from London, Ontario.
Everyone has got rather excited by the entertaining notion that Trump Hall has won London. But the source that the Usherwood had has been discounted by everyone else's sources. So lets assume not.
But Blackpool? I said ages ago that ReFUK could do very well as its almost a perfect seat for them. And I assume the guy briefing the Times is actually from the party in person at the count...
Blackpool was 67.5% Leave, if Reform can't beat the Tories there, where can they?
We had this discussion earlier. If you want to breathe in the hopium that unless the Fukkers actually beat you they aren't a threat, then please feel free.
We just won't allow you any credibility as a political analyst.
He and I do not agree very often but he does give a good insight into the conservative party and anyway they are heading onto opposition in any resoect
Labour now saying London will be 'very very close'
Bullshit.
Why do parties engage in this sort of expectations management?
Oh I don't know. Low turnout, assumed foregone conclusion leading to unenthused Labour voters deciding to vote Green, Lib Dem or Binface. If the votes are split then the Tory can win on a low vote.
Back her at 17 on BX if you think she can win. Well worth a shot if you really believe what you have written!
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.
Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.
Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.
Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.
Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
Everyone has got rather excited by the entertaining notion that Trump Hall has won London. But the source that the Usherwood had has been discounted by everyone else's sources. So lets assume not.
But Blackpool? I said ages ago that ReFUK could do very well as its almost a perfect seat for them. And I assume the guy briefing the Times is actually from the party in person at the count...
Blackpool was 67.5% Leave, if Reform can't beat the Tories there, where can they?
By-elections are not Reform's natural habitat: too much intensity - too much data, personnel and campaign ability needed. Reform is short on all of them.
Reform are only standing in two PCC elections - Derbyshire and Lincolnshire - but I'd keep an eye on how they get on there, where campaigning will have been much slacker.
Everyone has got rather excited by the entertaining notion that Trump Hall has won London. But the source that the Usherwood had has been discounted by everyone else's sources. So lets assume not.
But Blackpool? I said ages ago that ReFUK could do very well as its almost a perfect seat for them. And I assume the guy briefing the Times is actually from the party in person at the count...
Blackpool was 67.5% Leave, if Reform can't beat the Tories there, where can they?
We had this discussion earlier. If you want to breathe in the hopium that unless the Fukkers actually beat you they aren't a threat, then please feel free.
We just won't allow you any credibility as a political analyst.
I'm loathe to agree with HYUFD but he's right, they aren't.
They are in the immortal words of David Cameron merely assorted fruitcakes, nuts and loons.
The threat to the Tories isn't Reform, its Labour. The problem for the Tories isn't Reform, its that in seats up and down the country they're going to register fewer votes than Labour.
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
Their pollster mistakenly used a sample from London, Ontario.
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.
Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.
Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.
Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.
Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
Labour now saying London will be 'very very close'
Bullshit.
Why do parties engage in this sort of expectations management?
Oh I don't know. Low turnout, assumed foregone conclusion leading to unenthused Labour voters deciding to vote Green, Lib Dem or Binface. If the votes are split then the Tory can win on a low vote.
It’s a shame we have to wait ages to just get the turnout figures .
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
Not really a shock. constituencies have unique make up. Labour have had dozens of councillors resigning on just one issue, so it’s hard to get out the similar minded voters out again Khan had last time. London won’t be the only constituency Labour have lost because this issue today - this point I’m making was given a headline on the itv ten o’clock news earlier, so it’s not just me saying watch for it.
You seem to be saying that you think Hall has won London? If you do, you can still back her at 17.0 on BX. Presumably you have shovelled your shirt (blouse?) on it?
You seem to be saying a fresh change at Westminster will be good for democracy, but a fresh change of London Mayor won’t be great for democracy.
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.
Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.
Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.
Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.
Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.
Labour now saying London will be 'very very close'
Bullshit.
Why do parties engage in this sort of expectations management?
Strategy. Or is it tactics? Either way, for goal of goosing turnout by lower-turnout supporters, esp. the yout'.
Pretty silly (to put it very kindly) it's true. However, don't knock it tooooo hard, unless/until you're in situation, where difference of a few handfuls of votes makes the difference between the thrill of victory or the agony of defeat.
Here's a story as told to me, from the VERY close 2004 WA State governor's race.
That Election Day, about half hour before polls closed, in Aberdeen, WA (hometown of Kurt Cobain, then a blue-collar Democratic town) a guy walks into a local tavern, a regular living a few blocks away.
Lady behind the bar, herself a staunch Democrat, asks him, "So, Charlie, have you voted yet?" "No, Alice, didn't have a chance." "Well, you've got 30 minutes until the polls close, go out and vote, then come back and have your beer." "Ok."
So he left, then came back half-hour later. And (over his beer) says he voted for the Democrats . . . including Christine Gregoire. Who was (ultimately) elected by margin of +132 votes statewide.
One of which was was to the credit of that barmaid.
Labour now saying London will be 'very very close'
Bullshit.
Why do parties engage in this sort of expectations management?
Oh I don't know. Low turnout, assumed foregone conclusion leading to unenthused Labour voters deciding to vote Green, Lib Dem or Binface. If the votes are split then the Tory can win on a low vote.
When the Tories are 20% behind in the polls, in a midterm election?
The Labour vote could split six ways, the Tories would still lose.
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
Not really a shock. constituencies have unique make up. Labour have had dozens of councillors resigning on just one issue, so it’s hard to get out the similar minded voters out again Khan had last time. London won’t be the only constituency Labour have lost because this issue today - this point I’m making was given a headline on the itv ten o’clock news earlier, so it’s not just me saying watch for it.
You seem to be saying that you think Hall has won London? If you do, you can still back her at 17.0 on BX. Presumably you have shovelled your shirt (blouse?) on it?
You seem to be saying a fresh change at Westminster will be good for democracy, but a fresh change of London Mayor won’t be great for democracy.
I’m simply asking you to clarify what you think will happen (rather than what you want to happen.)
Everyone has got rather excited by the entertaining notion that Trump Hall has won London. But the source that the Usherwood had has been discounted by everyone else's sources. So lets assume not.
But Blackpool? I said ages ago that ReFUK could do very well as its almost a perfect seat for them. And I assume the guy briefing the Times is actually from the party in person at the count...
Blackpool was 67.5% Leave, if Reform can't beat the Tories there, where can they?
We had this discussion earlier. If you want to breathe in the hopium that unless the Fukkers actually beat you they aren't a threat, then please feel free.
We just won't allow you any credibility as a political analyst.
We had that discussion earlier, and you lost it! 😃
Labour now saying London will be 'very very close'
Bullshit.
Why do parties engage in this sort of expectations management?
Strategy. Or is it tactics? Either way, for goal of goosing turnout by lower-turnout supporters, esp. the yout'.
Pretty silly (to put it very kindly) it's true. However, don't knock it tooooo hard, unless/until you're in situation, where difference of a few handfuls of votes makes the difference between the thrill of victory or the agony of defeat.
Here's a story as told to me, from the VERY close 2004 WA State governor's race.
That Election Day, about half hour before polls closed, in Aberdeen, WA (hometown of Kurt Cobain, then a blue-collar Democratic town) a guy walks into a local tavern, a regular living a few blocks away.
Lady behind the bar, herself a staunch Democrat, asks him, "So, Charlie, have you voted yet?" "No, Alice, didn't have a chance." "Well, you've got 30 minutes until the polls close, go out and vote, then come back and have your beer." "Ok."
So he left, then came back half-hour later. And (over his beer) says he voted for the Democrats . . . including Christine Gregoire. Who was (ultimately) elected by margin of +132 votes statewide.
One of which was was to the credit of that barmaid.
Hard to goose turnout when the expectations management is coming after the close of polls.
Given the overwhelming evidence that lack of sleep is bad for your health we all know what is going to happen tonight. The Conservatives will lose pretty heavily and the evidence will point in only direction; Labour with sizeable majority in the General Election.
Help the NHS, go to bed early and dont waste your time staying up.
What is your take on Sudan Yokes? A regional war in offing, with global players behind it?
Labour now saying London will be 'very very close'
Bullshit.
Why do parties engage in this sort of expectations management?
Strategy. Or is it tactics? Either way, for goal of goosing turnout by lower-turnout supporters, esp. the yout'.
Pretty silly (to put it very kindly) it's true. However, don't knock it tooooo hard, unless/until you're in situation, where difference of a few handfuls of votes makes the difference between the thrill of victory or the agony of defeat.
Here's a story as told to me, from the VERY close 2004 WA State governor's race.
That Election Day, about half hour before polls closed, in Aberdeen, WA (hometown of Kurt Cobain, then a blue-collar Democratic town) a guy walks into a local tavern, a regular living a few blocks away.
Lady behind the bar, herself a staunch Democrat, asks him, "So, Charlie, have you voted yet?" "No, Alice, didn't have a chance." "Well, you've got 30 minutes until the polls close, go out and vote, then come back and have your beer." "Ok."
So he left, then came back half-hour later. And (over his beer) says he voted for the Democrats . . . including Christine Gregoire. Who was (ultimately) elected by margin of +132 votes statewide.
One of which was was to the credit of that barmaid.
Hard to goose turnout when the expectations management is coming after the close of polls.
Good point! Sometimes forget just how far you really are ahead of us . . . especially me.
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.
Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.
Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.
Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.
Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.
Well done nonetheless.
Has she called Hall’s win?
Have you?
I mean, I have Hall at 31. So I take £310 off a tenner bet. That will buy a good dinner.
Even if Blackpool, London, WM, Teeside and 350 council seats fall to Labour, Kuenssberg can spin that as a Tory win.
I have been able to completely avoid her since she stood down from BBC News. Now I’m stuck with her it seems, unless there is local election coverage on another channel that I’m not aware of?
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.
Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.
Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.
Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.
Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.
Well done nonetheless.
Has she called Hall’s win?
Have you?
I mean, I have Hall at 31. So I take £310 off a tenner bet. That will buy a good dinner.
You can also get 19 on Hall, right now.
Which is free money, right?
I'm taking Rabbit's word for it. If Khan loses that will be a seismic event, particularly in the light of Hall's catastrophic campaign. Nonetheless haven't I been warning you that your Labour landslide could be no more than the disappointment of 1992.
Labour now saying London will be 'very very close'
Bullshit.
Why do parties engage in this sort of expectations management?
Oh I don't know. Low turnout, assumed foregone conclusion leading to unenthused Labour voters deciding to vote Green, Lib Dem or Binface. If the votes are split then the Tory can win on a low vote.
When the Tories are 20% behind in the polls, in a midterm election?
The Labour vote could split six ways, the Tories would still lose.
I think I'd still have it as a narrow Khan win. But do wonder if we're seeing the re-emergence of the Johnson doughnut. A lot of people are pissed off about ULEZ (and I say that as a supporter, politicians have to make decisions that are tough), and under FPTP there will be minor parties picking away at Khan's inner London support to make a point. It will be close I think. Happy to be wrong and Khan walk it.
Mayoral elections are funny things as they're inbetween national elections - where it's clear people do or don't want change, and locals, where party loyalty and enthusiasm are a big thing.
Anyway. I wouldn't be surprised if councils were dismal for Tories but did better than expected in Mayoral ones as are free to run on their own (or their opponents') personal brands, away from the national picture.
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.
Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.
Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.
Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.
Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.
Well done nonetheless.
Has she called Hall’s win?
Have you?
I mean, I have Hall at 31. So I take £310 off a tenner bet. That will buy a good dinner.
You can also get 19 on Hall, right now.
Which is free money, right?
Keep an eye on whether you can cash out your dinner money for a profit, and maybe a takeaway pizza.
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.
Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.
Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.
Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.
Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.
Well done nonetheless.
Hang on, you make it sound like a foregone conclusion.
Comments
Vote Khan (labour), get Starmer’s Gaza policy is a key vote depressor to watch for across the election tonight.
Elections do throw up surprise wins, and often it’s to do with not getting your vote out that can happen disproportionately. That is likely what has happened here if Khan has lost.
Is anyone going to call out a party afterwards for claiming a close run thing when it turns out to be a landslide?
https://x.com/TimesRadio/status/1786155149150302713
I heard a rumour that Khan has lost. Is it true?Yes it’s true it’s a rumour.
Which also means I (probably) lose a tenner.
They are also much more cautious about the London mayoral result.
https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1786150982579065118?t=qmpusT9V8nSTr40iCCp7Xg&s=19
"George Eaton
@georgeeaton
Labour aide says they expect London to be “very, very close”.
I looked at how Sadiq Khan could lose back in March."
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1786150540222562815
I (and most people besides HYUFD) thought Uxbridge was an easy win for Labin 2023, but was it 'massive'?
Some huge LD gains, but those were kind of expected. 2015 a Tory majority was not the exit poll call, but the end result was not massively out was it? Lots of people thought Remain would win because they did not read AndyJS's spreadsheet of the early results, but there was always a chance Leave would win and many predicting it.
(They are a serious pain to get a new one on btw, no joke).
Or maybe it's just some 4D chess move to try and control the narrative which we'll all have forgotten about when Khan is elected Emperor of London. Surely he can't lose? Surely? Against *that*?
Two results in and it was obvious we had won, but instead of pressing I chickened out and laid some back
Should be better appreciated today, as epic self-burn, on both sides of the Atlantic . . . and the Pacific.
I think it’s silly expectation management.
But he’s not just popular; the people of the West Midlands also think that Street has done a good job, too. Two in five (41 per cent) say they’re satisfied with his performance as Mayor, and only 18 per cent say they’re not. Again, the comparison with Khan is entirely favourable to Street – despite his high chance of re-election, just 33 per cent are satisfied with Khan’s performance versus 40 per cent who aren’t.'
https://conservativehome.com/2024/05/02/chris-hopkins-sunaks-premiership-may-well-ride-on-how-successfully-street-disavows-him/
But Blackpool? I said ages ago that ReFUK could do very well as its almost a perfect seat for them. And I assume the guy briefing the Times is actually from the party in person at the count...
Help the NHS, go to bed early and dont waste your time staying up.
I will still get the same amount of sleep, just during the day.
The Telegraph last week reported that the Tories were on the hunt for a “high-profile” celebrity candidate to run against Mr Khan. However, Mr Norris said it was always difficult to get celebrities or well-known business people to throw their hat into the ring.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/06/sadiq-khan-london-mayor-desperately-beatable-steven-norris/
We just won't allow you any credibility as a political analyst.
I imagine if I was him I would prefer not to have the media dig through everything you ever done and said. Look at what happened to Trump. Much better to have your popular tv show and from time to time spout off on how crap politicians are for business.
He and I do not agree very often but he does give a good insight into the conservative party and anyway they are heading onto opposition in any resoect
I’m on at 31
Edit: she’s now 18.5
Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.
Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.
Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.
Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
Reform are only standing in two PCC elections - Derbyshire and Lincolnshire - but I'd keep an eye on how they get on there, where campaigning will have been much slacker.
To get a true picture they need to know who turned up and then walked away before going to get their ballot , not just those who did so once inside .
They are in the immortal words of David Cameron merely assorted fruitcakes, nuts and loons.
The threat to the Tories isn't Reform, its Labour. The problem for the Tories isn't Reform, its that in seats up and down the country they're going to register fewer votes than Labour.
Well done nonetheless.
Pretty silly (to put it very kindly) it's true. However, don't knock it tooooo hard, unless/until you're in situation, where difference of a few handfuls of votes makes the difference between the thrill of victory or the agony of defeat.
Here's a story as told to me, from the VERY close 2004 WA State governor's race.
That Election Day, about half hour before polls closed, in Aberdeen, WA (hometown of Kurt Cobain, then a blue-collar Democratic town) a guy walks into a local tavern, a regular living a few blocks away.
Lady behind the bar, herself a staunch Democrat, asks him, "So, Charlie, have you voted yet?" "No, Alice, didn't have a chance." "Well, you've got 30 minutes until the polls close, go out and vote, then come back and have your beer." "Ok."
So he left, then came back half-hour later. And (over his beer) says he voted for the Democrats . . . including Christine Gregoire. Who was (ultimately) elected by margin of +132 votes statewide.
One of which was was to the credit of that barmaid.
The Labour vote could split six ways, the Tories would still lose.
This is a betting site, after all.
Are you saying Hall will/has won?
Oh god it’s Laura K on the election show.
Lord help us.
London is huge. How would anyone have sight over a representative sample of votes before counting starts?
Let's hold off creating narratives based on rumours started by people with very limited information themselves.
Have you?
I mean, I have Hall at 31. So I take £310 off a tenner bet. That will buy a good dinner.
You can also get 19 on Hall, right now.
Which is free money, right?
https://x.com/thelfaofficial/status/1763310794907767131?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
How on earth did they justify this? So odd. Was it an X-factor style audience vote and a load of Tottenham fans kept phoning up?
Mayoral elections are funny things as they're inbetween national elections - where it's clear people do or don't want change, and locals, where party loyalty and enthusiasm are a big thing.
Anyway. I wouldn't be surprised if councils were dismal for Tories but did better than expected in Mayoral ones as are free to run on their own (or their opponents') personal brands, away from the national picture.