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MRP benchmarks and assorted thoughts – politicalbetting.com

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    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,110
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
    ... So he won't be visiting the palace win or lose?
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,390
    Hall into 13.5 on BX
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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,235
    kle4 said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    Someone has snorted too many lines of Colombian sherbert
    I'd absolutely LMAO if they won London, but that seems delusional.
    It’s the bunker scene in Downfall on steroids level delusional. They are suggesting one of the biggest polling misfires in history.
    If only Corbyn (the less loony one) had run, maybe Hall would have been in with a chance.
    Is there a third brother?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,559
    I just want Count Binface to better the 1% he got in 2021, but the Tory voting system change has probably ruined that opportunity.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,634

    Labour now saying London will be 'very very close'

    You mean for the second time in a row the London mayoral opinion polls have been total rubbish?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,559
    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    Someone has snorted too many lines of Colombian sherbert
    I'd absolutely LMAO if they won London, but that seems delusional.
    It’s the bunker scene in Downfall on steroids level delusional. They are suggesting one of the biggest polling misfires in history.
    If only Corbyn (the less loony one) had run, maybe Hall would have been in with a chance.
    Is there a third brother?
    And a fourth apparently.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,559
    Andy_JS said:

    Labour now saying London will be 'very very close'

    You mean for the second time in a row the London mayoral opinion polls have been total rubbish?
    Or, they too want to keep things exciting until the count.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,325
    edited May 2
    Oxford and Rochdale earmarked as poor Labour results- means Galloway would be getting some councillors
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    If they win London it is definitively a narrative shifter, if not a poll shifter
    Absolutely. And it’s not even that much of a shock to see Khan pipped, due to 3rd Term winners not really wanted and outer London could be happier to turn out against him than complacency and apathy and anti Labour/Starmer anger in inner London skewing the polls and producing this win.

    Vote Khan (labour), get Starmer’s Gaza policy is a key vote depressor to watch for across the election tonight.

    Elections do throw up surprise wins, and often it’s to do with not getting your vote out that can happen disproportionately. That is likely what has happened here if Khan has lost.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,559

    Labour now saying London will be 'very very close'

    Bullshit.

    Why do parties engage in this sort of expectations management?
    Passes the time.

    Is anyone going to call out a party afterwards for claiming a close run thing when it turns out to be a landslide?
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,454
    I’d have more time for the rumour if they said they have a chance . Utterly convinced would mean Khans vote would need to collapse. I just don’t see it .
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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,235
    edited May 2

    Hall into 13.5 on BX

    Meaning if you bet £10 on Hall at those odds, you lose £10.
    Shhhhh, let them subsidise the rest of us.

    Oxford and Rochdale earmarked as poor Labour results- means Galloway would be getting some councillors

    Oxford and Rochdale. So very similar in almost every respect.
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    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,765
    DYOR, but keep your eye on Blackpool:

    https://x.com/TimesRadio/status/1786155149150302713
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    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,110

    Labour now saying London will be 'very very close'

    Bullshit.

    Why do parties engage in this sort of expectations management?
    Passes the time in the dull hours between close of voting and the result?
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
    It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,325
    biggles said:

    Hall into 13.5 on BX

    Meaning if you bet £10 on Hall at those odds, you lose £10.
    Shhhhh, let them subsidise the rest of us.

    Oxford and Rochdale earmarked as poor Labour results- means Galloway would be getting some councillors

    Oxford and Rochdale. So very similar in almost every respect.
    Yes they are oddballs as a duo but that's the two mentioned!
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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,235
    It’s the old joke:

    I heard a rumour that Khan has lost. Is it true?Yes it’s true it’s a rumour.
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,762

    DYOR, but keep your eye on Blackpool:

    https://x.com/TimesRadio/status/1786155149150302713

    Tweet says Reform UK may come second. That seems plausible.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,390

    Hall into 13.5 on BX

    Meaning if you bet £10 on Hall at those odds, you lose £10.
    I bet a tenner on her at 31.0.

    Which also means I (probably) lose a tenner.
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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,235

    DYOR, but keep your eye on Blackpool:

    https://x.com/TimesRadio/status/1786155149150302713

    I try not to, it’s not pretty.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,957
    edited May 2
    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
    It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
    Add in the Tory candidate is crap and has no real name recognition / somebody who could be seen as distinct from the main party in the way Andy Street can.
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    theoldpoliticstheoldpolitics Posts: 254

    Oxford and Rochdale earmarked as poor Labour results- means Galloway would be getting some councillors

    I don't think so. The issue in Oxford is vote fragmentation, it's more likely that the controversy over traffic calming measures has split Labour's vote, with those in favour of it going Lib Dem and Green, those against it going to the Motoring Rights Party sorry I mean Oxford Independent Alliance, and thus someone winning on 25-30% of the vote, at which point it's almost a roll of the dice.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,007
    nico679 said:

    I’d have more time for the rumour if they said they have a chance . Utterly convinced would mean Khans vote would need to collapse. I just don’t see it .

    Another CCHQ source gets in touch to dispute any claim that they are “chipper”.

    They are also much more cautious about the London mayoral result.

    https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1786150982579065118?t=qmpusT9V8nSTr40iCCp7Xg&s=19
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2

    Hall into 13.5 on BX

    Meaning if you bet £10 on Hall at those odds, you lose £10.
    I bet a tenner on her at 31.0.

    Which also means I (probably) lose a tenner.
    You can get out for a profit though, or have a no lose bet (scratch Khan +160 Hall)
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,634
    Is this spin?

    "George Eaton
    @georgeeaton

    Labour aide says they expect London to be “very, very close”.

    I looked at how Sadiq Khan could lose back in March."

    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1786150540222562815
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,559
    I'm trying to think of genuinely massive upsets of recent memory.

    I (and most people besides HYUFD) thought Uxbridge was an easy win for Labin 2023, but was it 'massive'?

    Some huge LD gains, but those were kind of expected. 2015 a Tory majority was not the exit poll call, but the end result was not massively out was it? Lots of people thought Remain would win because they did not read AndyJS's spreadsheet of the early results, but there was always a chance Leave would win and many predicting it.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
    It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
    Well quite. I can buy closer than anticipated but the idea that Susan Hall can buck the twin factors of a city that is trending Labour and catastrophically abysmal polling is laughable.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,559
    edited May 2
    Andy_JS said:

    Is this spin?

    "George Eaton
    @georgeeaton

    Labour aide says they expect London to be “very, very close”.

    I looked at how Sadiq Khan could lose back in March."

    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1786150540222562815

    It's spinning so hard I'm worried the tumble dryer belt is going to snap.

    (They are a serious pain to get a new one on btw, no joke).
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,957
    Is it just that I have been super busy and lots of other things are hogging the news agenda, but the things like London Mayoral race seem to have had low national coverage. I think back to Red Ken vs Boris and it was wall to wall stuff.
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    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,918
    Hall winning London would obviously be terrible for Labour, but in the long run, having someone as "eccentric" as her wouldn't be good for the Tories either.

    Or maybe it's just some 4D chess move to try and control the narrative which we'll all have forgotten about when Khan is elected Emperor of London. Surely he can't lose? Surely? Against *that*? :worried:
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2
    kle4 said:

    I'm trying to think of genuinely massive upsets of recent memory.

    I (and most people besides HYUFD) thought Uxbridge was an easy win for Labin 2023, but was it 'massive'?

    Some huge LD gains, but those were kind of expected. 2015 a Tory majority was not the exit poll call, but the end result was not massively out was it? Lots of people thought Remain would win because they did not read AndyJS's spreadsheet of the early results, but there was always a chance Leave would win and many predicting it.

    The only time I really thought Leave couldn’t win was after Jo Cox’s murder. I had put down a reasonably sized bet on Leave at the shortest price they’d been (2.4?) about half an hour before it happened.

    Two results in and it was obvious we had won, but instead of pressing I chickened out and laid some back
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,559
    ToryJim said:

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
    It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
    Well quite. I can buy closer than anticipated but the idea that Susan Hall can buck the twin factors of a city that is trending Labour and catastrophically abysmal polling is laughable.
    Never mind a GE being called immediately if she wins, they need to install her as leader of the party and prospective PM if she does.
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,158
    On Topic - "Hyndburn" is type of English place-name, that was the meat & drink of American vaudeville comedians in the heyday of the music hall.

    Should be better appreciated today, as epic self-burn, on both sides of the Atlantic . . . and the Pacific.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,403
    kle4 said:

    I'm trying to think of genuinely massive upsets of recent memory.

    I (and most people besides HYUFD) thought Uxbridge was an easy win for Labin 2023, but was it 'massive'?

    Some huge LD gains, but those were kind of expected. 2015 a Tory majority was not the exit poll call, but the end result was not massively out was it? Lots of people thought Remain would win because they did not read AndyJS's spreadsheet of the early results, but there was always a chance Leave would win and many predicting it.

    2017 - by the end, the polls were pointing to a Conservative majority of 30-40, but 317 seats is not a massive failure.

    I think it’s silly expectation management.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,215
    Big personal vote for Street likely 'He has the highest net favourability (+20) of everyone we polled in this research, better than Keir Starmer (+3), Richard Parker (+14 but with a huge amount of Don’t Knows) and Rishi Sunak (-27). Street is more popular in the West Midlands than Sadiq Khan (+2) is in London, who is likely to romp home in his re-election campaign.

    But he’s not just popular; the people of the West Midlands also think that Street has done a good job, too. Two in five (41 per cent) say they’re satisfied with his performance as Mayor, and only 18 per cent say they’re not. Again, the comparison with Khan is entirely favourable to Street – despite his high chance of re-election, just 33 per cent are satisfied with Khan’s performance versus 40 per cent who aren’t.'
    https://conservativehome.com/2024/05/02/chris-hopkins-sunaks-premiership-may-well-ride-on-how-successfully-street-disavows-him/
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,158
    Re: local elections, what's the word from Crackpot?
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,043
    Everyone has got rather excited by the entertaining notion that Trump Hall has won London. But the source that the Usherwood had has been discounted by everyone else's sources. So lets assume not.

    But Blackpool? I said ages ago that ReFUK could do very well as its almost a perfect seat for them. And I assume the guy briefing the Times is actually from the party in person at the count...
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,634
    What's the reason for not counting the London mayoral race tonight?
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,454
    edited May 2
    Generally in FPTP Labour picks up votes from the Lib Dems and Greens to keep the Tories out . I’d be shocked if that doesn’t happen in London.
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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,235
    edited May 2
    If London is closer that it looked, doesn’t it really show that they were idiots not to find a decent “independent-ish” Tory with name recognition? They will be kicking themselves.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,390
    isam said:

    Hall into 13.5 on BX

    Meaning if you bet £10 on Hall at those odds, you lose £10.
    I bet a tenner on her at 31.0.

    Which also means I (probably) lose a tenner.
    You can get out for a profit though, or have a no lose bet (scratch Khan +160 Hall)
    I can cash out now for +£3.71 profit. Might as well let it ride!
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147
    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
    It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
    Not really a shock. constituencies have unique make up. Labour have had dozens of councillors resigning on just one issue, so it’s hard to get out the similar minded voters out again Khan had last time. London won’t be the only constituency Labour have lost because this issue today - this point I’m making was given a headline on the itv ten o’clock news earlier, so it’s not just me saying watch for it.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,634
    edited May 2

    On Topic - "Hyndburn" is type of English place-name, that was the meat & drink of American vaudeville comedians in the heyday of the music hall.

    Should be better appreciated today, as epic self-burn, on both sides of the Atlantic . . . and the Pacific.

    A lot of constituencies in that area are named after places that don't actually exist as settlements. Hyndburn, Pendle, Elmet.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,454
    edited May 2
    Andy_JS said:

    What's the reason for not counting the London mayoral race tonight?

    They’ve gone to manual counting . Also I think it’s the cost to employ the workers through the night .
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,957
    edited May 2
    biggles said:

    If London is closer that it looked, doesn’t it really show that they were idiots not to find a decent “independent-ish” Tory with name recognition? They will be kicking themselves.

    If I remember correctly, those that stood for the candidacy were all poor and certainly didn't match that criteria.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,390
    Hall sliding back out towards 17 now.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,454

    biggles said:

    If London is closer that it looked, doesn’t it really show that they were idiots not to find a decent “independent-ish” Tory with name recognition? They will be kicking themselves.

    If I remember correctly, those that stood for the candidacy were all poor and certainly didn't match that criteria.
    The candidate that was best placed to beat Khan had to withdraw over a sex allegation .
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    TresTres Posts: 2,349
    Andy_JS said:

    What's the reason for not counting the London mayoral race tonight?

    Tories ditching electronic counting and so electoral services need to count three different ballot papers manually.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,634
    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
    It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
    No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,215
    edited May 2

    Everyone has got rather excited by the entertaining notion that Trump Hall has won London. But the source that the Usherwood had has been discounted by everyone else's sources. So lets assume not.

    But Blackpool? I said ages ago that ReFUK could do very well as its almost a perfect seat for them. And I assume the guy briefing the Times is actually from the party in person at the count...

    Blackpool was 67.5% Leave, if Reform can't beat the Tories there, where can they?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,559
    Yokes said:

    Given the overwhelming evidence that lack of sleep is bad for your health we all know what is going to happen tonight. The Conservatives will lose pretty heavily and the evidence will point in only direction; Labour with sizeable majority in the General Election.

    Help the NHS, go to bed early and dont waste your time staying up.

    For shame.

    I will still get the same amount of sleep, just during the day.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,559
    biggles said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What's the reason for not counting the London mayoral race tonight?

    They need all the staff on hand to screen out the 15m Lutfur Rahman write-in ballots first.
    I still maintain some offences should result in permanent punishment. Being found guilty of corrupt electoral practices should mean you never get another opportunity to corrupt an election (at least for yourself) ever again.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,390

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
    It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
    Not really a shock. constituencies have unique make up. Labour have had dozens of councillors resigning on just one issue, so it’s hard to get out the similar minded voters out again Khan had last time. London won’t be the only constituency Labour have lost because this issue today - this point I’m making was given a headline on the itv ten o’clock news earlier, so it’s not just me saying watch for it.
    You seem to be saying that you think Hall has won London? If you do, you can still back her at 17.0 on BX. Presumably you have shovelled your shirt (blouse?) on it?
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,454
    kle4 said:

    Yokes said:

    Given the overwhelming evidence that lack of sleep is bad for your health we all know what is going to happen tonight. The Conservatives will lose pretty heavily and the evidence will point in only direction; Labour with sizeable majority in the General Election.

    Help the NHS, go to bed early and dont waste your time staying up.

    For shame.

    I will still get the same amount of sleep, just during the day.
    I’m staying upto to around 3.30 am . Some key results should be in by then .
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,957
    Seems like the Tories were looking for somebody who was high profile / more independent,

    The Telegraph last week reported that the Tories were on the hunt for a “high-profile” celebrity candidate to run against Mr Khan. However, Mr Norris said it was always difficult to get celebrities or well-known business people to throw their hat into the ring.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/06/sadiq-khan-london-mayor-desperately-beatable-steven-norris/
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,634

    Seems like the Tories were looking for somebody who was high profile / more independent,

    The Telegraph last week reported that the Tories were on the hunt for a “high-profile” celebrity candidate to run against Mr Khan. However, Mr Norris said it was always difficult to get celebrities or well-known business people to throw their hat into the ring.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/06/sadiq-khan-london-mayor-desperately-beatable-steven-norris/

    I always expected Alan Sugar to stand sometime, and he probably would have won if he had, regardless of party.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,046
    Yokes said:

    Given the overwhelming evidence that lack of sleep is bad for your health we all know what is going to happen tonight. The Conservatives will lose pretty heavily and the evidence will point in only direction; Labour with sizeable majority in the General Election.

    Help the NHS, go to bed early and dont waste your time staying up.

    Wimp!
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,043
    HYUFD said:

    Everyone has got rather excited by the entertaining notion that Trump Hall has won London. But the source that the Usherwood had has been discounted by everyone else's sources. So lets assume not.

    But Blackpool? I said ages ago that ReFUK could do very well as its almost a perfect seat for them. And I assume the guy briefing the Times is actually from the party in person at the count...

    Blackpool was 67.5% Leave, if Reform can't beat the Tories there, where can they?
    We had this discussion earlier. If you want to breathe in the hopium that unless the Fukkers actually beat you they aren't a threat, then please feel free.

    We just won't allow you any credibility as a political analyst.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,046
    Andy_JS said:

    What's the reason for not counting the London mayoral race tonight?

    Slackers!
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,563

    Labour now saying London will be 'very very close'

    Bullshit.

    Why do parties engage in this sort of expectations management?
    Oh I don't know. Low turnout, assumed foregone conclusion leading to unenthused Labour voters deciding to vote Green, Lib Dem or Binface. If the votes are split then the Tory can win on a low vote.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,957
    edited May 2
    Andy_JS said:

    Seems like the Tories were looking for somebody who was high profile / more independent,

    The Telegraph last week reported that the Tories were on the hunt for a “high-profile” celebrity candidate to run against Mr Khan. However, Mr Norris said it was always difficult to get celebrities or well-known business people to throw their hat into the ring.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/06/sadiq-khan-london-mayor-desperately-beatable-steven-norris/

    I always expected Alan Sugar to stand sometime, and he probably would have won if he had, regardless of party.
    I don't know. I think there is a tonne of manure that could be thrown at him, and when he was made a Lord, he didn't exactly embrace his place in the HoLs. Does he even spend that much time in the UK these days?

    I imagine if I was him I would prefer not to have the media dig through everything you ever done and said. Look at what happened to Trump. Much better to have your popular tv show and from time to time spout off on how crap politicians are for business.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,033
    edited May 2

    HYUFD said:

    Everyone has got rather excited by the entertaining notion that Trump Hall has won London. But the source that the Usherwood had has been discounted by everyone else's sources. So lets assume not.

    But Blackpool? I said ages ago that ReFUK could do very well as its almost a perfect seat for them. And I assume the guy briefing the Times is actually from the party in person at the count...

    Blackpool was 67.5% Leave, if Reform can't beat the Tories there, where can they?
    We had this discussion earlier. If you want to breathe in the hopium that unless the Fukkers actually beat you they aren't a threat, then please feel free.

    We just won't allow you any credibility as a political analyst.
    Not sure you need to be so nasty to @HYUFD

    He and I do not agree very often but he does give a good insight into the conservative party and anyway they are heading onto opposition in any resoect
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,390
    edited May 2

    Labour now saying London will be 'very very close'

    Bullshit.

    Why do parties engage in this sort of expectations management?
    Oh I don't know. Low turnout, assumed foregone conclusion leading to unenthused Labour voters deciding to vote Green, Lib Dem or Binface. If the votes are split then the Tory can win on a low vote.
    Back her at 17 on BX if you think she can win. Well worth a shot if you really believe what you have written!

    I’m on at 31

    Edit: she’s now 18.5
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147
    edited May 2
    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
    It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
    No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
    I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.

    Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.

    Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.

    Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.

    Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,511
    HYUFD said:

    Everyone has got rather excited by the entertaining notion that Trump Hall has won London. But the source that the Usherwood had has been discounted by everyone else's sources. So lets assume not.

    But Blackpool? I said ages ago that ReFUK could do very well as its almost a perfect seat for them. And I assume the guy briefing the Times is actually from the party in person at the count...

    Blackpool was 67.5% Leave, if Reform can't beat the Tories there, where can they?
    By-elections are not Reform's natural habitat: too much intensity - too much data, personnel and campaign ability needed. Reform is short on all of them.

    Reform are only standing in two PCC elections - Derbyshire and Lincolnshire - but I'd keep an eye on how they get on there, where campaigning will have been much slacker.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,454
    The issue around voter ID .

    To get a true picture they need to know who turned up and then walked away before going to get their ballot , not just those who did so once inside .
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 19,463

    HYUFD said:

    Everyone has got rather excited by the entertaining notion that Trump Hall has won London. But the source that the Usherwood had has been discounted by everyone else's sources. So lets assume not.

    But Blackpool? I said ages ago that ReFUK could do very well as its almost a perfect seat for them. And I assume the guy briefing the Times is actually from the party in person at the count...

    Blackpool was 67.5% Leave, if Reform can't beat the Tories there, where can they?
    We had this discussion earlier. If you want to breathe in the hopium that unless the Fukkers actually beat you they aren't a threat, then please feel free.

    We just won't allow you any credibility as a political analyst.
    I'm loathe to agree with HYUFD but he's right, they aren't.

    They are in the immortal words of David Cameron merely assorted fruitcakes, nuts and loons.

    The threat to the Tories isn't Reform, its Labour. The problem for the Tories isn't Reform, its that in seats up and down the country they're going to register fewer votes than Labour.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,264

    Hall sliding back out towards 17 now.

    It's a Knockout!
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,033

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    Their pollster mistakenly used a sample from London, Ontario.
    I simply do not believe that Khan hasn't won well
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,390
    edited May 2

    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
    It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
    No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
    I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.

    Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.

    Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.

    Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.

    Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
    To clarify, do you think Hall will win London?
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,454

    Labour now saying London will be 'very very close'

    Bullshit.

    Why do parties engage in this sort of expectations management?
    Oh I don't know. Low turnout, assumed foregone conclusion leading to unenthused Labour voters deciding to vote Green, Lib Dem or Binface. If the votes are split then the Tory can win on a low vote.
    It’s a shame we have to wait ages to just get the turnout figures .
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
    It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
    Not really a shock. constituencies have unique make up. Labour have had dozens of councillors resigning on just one issue, so it’s hard to get out the similar minded voters out again Khan had last time. London won’t be the only constituency Labour have lost because this issue today - this point I’m making was given a headline on the itv ten o’clock news earlier, so it’s not just me saying watch for it.
    You seem to be saying that you think Hall has won London? If you do, you can still back her at 17.0 on BX. Presumably you have shovelled your shirt (blouse?) on it?
    You seem to be saying a fresh change at Westminster will be good for democracy, but a fresh change of London Mayor won’t be great for democracy.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,097
    Is it worse to be a Tory or an incumbent? That’s the question.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,101
    ...

    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
    It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
    No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
    I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.

    Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.

    Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.

    Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.

    Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
    Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.

    Well done nonetheless.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,158

    Labour now saying London will be 'very very close'

    Bullshit.

    Why do parties engage in this sort of expectations management?
    Strategy. Or is it tactics? Either way, for goal of goosing turnout by lower-turnout supporters, esp. the yout'.

    Pretty silly (to put it very kindly) it's true. However, don't knock it tooooo hard, unless/until you're in situation, where difference of a few handfuls of votes makes the difference between the thrill of victory or the agony of defeat.

    Here's a story as told to me, from the VERY close 2004 WA State governor's race.

    That Election Day, about half hour before polls closed, in Aberdeen, WA (hometown of Kurt Cobain, then a blue-collar Democratic town) a guy walks into a local tavern, a regular living a few blocks away.

    Lady behind the bar, herself a staunch Democrat, asks him, "So, Charlie, have you voted yet?" "No, Alice, didn't have a chance." "Well, you've got 30 minutes until the polls close, go out and vote, then come back and have your beer." "Ok."

    So he left, then came back half-hour later. And (over his beer) says he voted for the Democrats . . . including Christine Gregoire. Who was (ultimately) elected by margin of +132 votes statewide.

    One of which was was to the credit of that barmaid.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 19,463

    Labour now saying London will be 'very very close'

    Bullshit.

    Why do parties engage in this sort of expectations management?
    Oh I don't know. Low turnout, assumed foregone conclusion leading to unenthused Labour voters deciding to vote Green, Lib Dem or Binface. If the votes are split then the Tory can win on a low vote.
    When the Tories are 20% behind in the polls, in a midterm election?

    The Labour vote could split six ways, the Tories would still lose.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,390

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
    It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
    Not really a shock. constituencies have unique make up. Labour have had dozens of councillors resigning on just one issue, so it’s hard to get out the similar minded voters out again Khan had last time. London won’t be the only constituency Labour have lost because this issue today - this point I’m making was given a headline on the itv ten o’clock news earlier, so it’s not just me saying watch for it.
    You seem to be saying that you think Hall has won London? If you do, you can still back her at 17.0 on BX. Presumably you have shovelled your shirt (blouse?) on it?
    You seem to be saying a fresh change at Westminster will be good for democracy, but a fresh change of London Mayor won’t be great for democracy.
    I’m simply asking you to clarify what you think will happen (rather than what you want to happen.)

    This is a betting site, after all.

    Are you saying Hall will/has won?
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147

    HYUFD said:

    Everyone has got rather excited by the entertaining notion that Trump Hall has won London. But the source that the Usherwood had has been discounted by everyone else's sources. So lets assume not.

    But Blackpool? I said ages ago that ReFUK could do very well as its almost a perfect seat for them. And I assume the guy briefing the Times is actually from the party in person at the count...

    Blackpool was 67.5% Leave, if Reform can't beat the Tories there, where can they?
    We had this discussion earlier. If you want to breathe in the hopium that unless the Fukkers actually beat you they aren't a threat, then please feel free.

    We just won't allow you any credibility as a political analyst.
    We had that discussion earlier, and you lost it! 😃
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 19,463

    Labour now saying London will be 'very very close'

    Bullshit.

    Why do parties engage in this sort of expectations management?
    Strategy. Or is it tactics? Either way, for goal of goosing turnout by lower-turnout supporters, esp. the yout'.

    Pretty silly (to put it very kindly) it's true. However, don't knock it tooooo hard, unless/until you're in situation, where difference of a few handfuls of votes makes the difference between the thrill of victory or the agony of defeat.

    Here's a story as told to me, from the VERY close 2004 WA State governor's race.

    That Election Day, about half hour before polls closed, in Aberdeen, WA (hometown of Kurt Cobain, then a blue-collar Democratic town) a guy walks into a local tavern, a regular living a few blocks away.

    Lady behind the bar, herself a staunch Democrat, asks him, "So, Charlie, have you voted yet?" "No, Alice, didn't have a chance." "Well, you've got 30 minutes until the polls close, go out and vote, then come back and have your beer." "Ok."

    So he left, then came back half-hour later. And (over his beer) says he voted for the Democrats . . . including Christine Gregoire. Who was (ultimately) elected by margin of +132 votes statewide.

    One of which was was to the credit of that barmaid.
    Hard to goose turnout when the expectations management is coming after the close of polls.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147
    Yokes said:

    Given the overwhelming evidence that lack of sleep is bad for your health we all know what is going to happen tonight. The Conservatives will lose pretty heavily and the evidence will point in only direction; Labour with sizeable majority in the General Election.

    Help the NHS, go to bed early and dont waste your time staying up.

    What is your take on Sudan Yokes? A regional war in offing, with global players behind it?
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,390

    Hall sliding back out towards 17 now.

    It's a Knockout!
    Hall now 19.

    Oh god it’s Laura K on the election show.

    Lord help us.
  • Options
    RattersRatters Posts: 903
    All this rubbish about how close the London race is.

    London is huge. How would anyone have sight over a representative sample of votes before counting starts?

    Let's hold off creating narratives based on rumours started by people with very limited information themselves.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,158

    Labour now saying London will be 'very very close'

    Bullshit.

    Why do parties engage in this sort of expectations management?
    Strategy. Or is it tactics? Either way, for goal of goosing turnout by lower-turnout supporters, esp. the yout'.

    Pretty silly (to put it very kindly) it's true. However, don't knock it tooooo hard, unless/until you're in situation, where difference of a few handfuls of votes makes the difference between the thrill of victory or the agony of defeat.

    Here's a story as told to me, from the VERY close 2004 WA State governor's race.

    That Election Day, about half hour before polls closed, in Aberdeen, WA (hometown of Kurt Cobain, then a blue-collar Democratic town) a guy walks into a local tavern, a regular living a few blocks away.

    Lady behind the bar, herself a staunch Democrat, asks him, "So, Charlie, have you voted yet?" "No, Alice, didn't have a chance." "Well, you've got 30 minutes until the polls close, go out and vote, then come back and have your beer." "Ok."

    So he left, then came back half-hour later. And (over his beer) says he voted for the Democrats . . . including Christine Gregoire. Who was (ultimately) elected by margin of +132 votes statewide.

    One of which was was to the credit of that barmaid.
    Hard to goose turnout when the expectations management is coming after the close of polls.
    Good point! Sometimes forget just how far you really are ahead of us . . . especially me.
  • Options
    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,765
    Andy_JS said:

    What's the reason for not counting the London mayoral race tonight?

    Cockneys are bone idle.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,101

    Hall sliding back out towards 17 now.

    It's a Knockout!
    Hall now 19.

    Oh god it’s Laura K on the election show.

    Lord help us.
    Even if Blackpool, London, WM, Teeside and 350 council seats fall to Labour, Kuenssberg can spin that as a Tory win.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,390

    ...

    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
    It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
    No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
    I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.

    Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.

    Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.

    Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.

    Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
    Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.

    Well done nonetheless.
    Has she called Hall’s win?

    Have you?

    I mean, I have Hall at 31. So I take £310 off a tenner bet. That will buy a good dinner.

    You can also get 19 on Hall, right now.

    Which is free money, right?
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,390

    Hall sliding back out towards 17 now.

    It's a Knockout!
    Hall now 19.

    Oh god it’s Laura K on the election show.

    Lord help us.
    Even if Blackpool, London, WM, Teeside and 350 council seats fall to Labour, Kuenssberg can spin that as a Tory win.
    I have been able to completely avoid her since she stood down from BBC News. Now I’m stuck with her it seems, unless there is local election coverage on another channel that I’m not aware of?
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,173

    Hall sliding back out towards 17 now.

    It's a Knockout!
    Hall now 19.

    Oh god it’s Laura K on the election show.

    Lord help us.
    Laura K has replaced Huw...
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,559
    Ratters said:

    All this rubbish about how close the London race is.

    London is huge. How would anyone have sight over a representative sample of votes before counting starts?

    Let's hold off creating narratives based on rumours started by people with very limited information themselves.

    Sure, but I find the best way to approach election nights (not for betting purposes) is to be very credulous, and go with the fun.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,101

    ...

    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
    It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
    No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
    I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.

    Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.

    Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.

    Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.

    Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
    Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.

    Well done nonetheless.
    Has she called Hall’s win?

    Have you?

    I mean, I have Hall at 31. So I take £310 off a tenner bet. That will buy a good dinner.

    You can also get 19 on Hall, right now.

    Which is free money, right?
    I'm taking Rabbit's word for it. If Khan loses that will be a seismic event, particularly in the light of Hall's catastrophic campaign. Nonetheless haven't I been warning you that your Labour landslide could be no more than the disappointment of 1992.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    To be fair to Susan Hall, Ange Postecoglu won ‘London Manager of the Year’ in February, so anything is possible

    https://x.com/thelfaofficial/status/1763310794907767131?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    How on earth did they justify this? So odd. Was it an X-factor style audience vote and a load of Tottenham fans kept phoning up?
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,404
    Ratters said:

    All this rubbish about how close the London race is.

    London is huge. How would anyone have sight over a representative sample of votes before counting starts?

    Let's hold off creating narratives based on rumours started by people with very limited information themselves.

    They wouldn't. What they might have is turnout reports from their GOTV teams.
  • Options
    MJWMJW Posts: 1,527

    Labour now saying London will be 'very very close'

    Bullshit.

    Why do parties engage in this sort of expectations management?
    Oh I don't know. Low turnout, assumed foregone conclusion leading to unenthused Labour voters deciding to vote Green, Lib Dem or Binface. If the votes are split then the Tory can win on a low vote.
    When the Tories are 20% behind in the polls, in a midterm election?

    The Labour vote could split six ways, the Tories would still lose.
    I think I'd still have it as a narrow Khan win. But do wonder if we're seeing the re-emergence of the Johnson doughnut. A lot of people are pissed off about ULEZ (and I say that as a supporter, politicians have to make decisions that are tough), and under FPTP there will be minor parties picking away at Khan's inner London support to make a point. It will be close I think. Happy to be wrong and Khan walk it.

    Mayoral elections are funny things as they're inbetween national elections - where it's clear people do or don't want change, and locals, where party loyalty and enthusiasm are a big thing.

    Anyway. I wouldn't be surprised if councils were dismal for Tories but did better than expected in Mayoral ones as are free to run on their own (or their opponents') personal brands, away from the national picture.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,404

    ...

    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
    It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
    No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
    I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.

    Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.

    Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.

    Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.

    Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
    Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.

    Well done nonetheless.
    Has she called Hall’s win?

    Have you?

    I mean, I have Hall at 31. So I take £310 off a tenner bet. That will buy a good dinner.

    You can also get 19 on Hall, right now.

    Which is free money, right?
    Keep an eye on whether you can cash out your dinner money for a profit, and maybe a takeaway pizza.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,634

    ...

    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
    It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
    No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
    I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.

    Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.

    Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.

    Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.

    Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
    Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.

    Well done nonetheless.
    Hang on, you make it sound like a foregone conclusion.
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