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MRP benchmarks and assorted thoughts – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,386
    Andy_JS said:

    ...

    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
    It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
    No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
    I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.

    Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.

    Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.

    Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.

    Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
    Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.

    Well done nonetheless.
    Hang on, you make it sound like a foregone conclusion.
    It’s an annoying tick of his. I think it’s just attention-seeking.
  • Options
    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,765
    kle4 said:

    Ratters said:

    All this rubbish about how close the London race is.

    London is huge. How would anyone have sight over a representative sample of votes before counting starts?

    Let's hold off creating narratives based on rumours started by people with very limited information themselves.

    Sure, but I find the best way to approach election nights (not for betting purposes) is to be very credulous, and go with the fun.
    What is an election night without some frankly ridiculous early rumours? Makes you proud to be British.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,386

    ...

    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
    It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
    No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
    I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.

    Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.

    Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.

    Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.

    Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
    Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.

    Well done nonetheless.
    Has she called Hall’s win?

    Have you?

    I mean, I have Hall at 31. So I take £310 off a tenner bet. That will buy a good dinner.

    You can also get 19 on Hall, right now.

    Which is free money, right?
    Keep an eye on whether you can cash out your dinner money for a profit, and maybe a takeaway pizza.
    I was offered £3.70 at her high watermark earlier. Might have got me half a lager and a bag of nuts.

    Sadly no more.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,101
    Andy_JS said:

    ...

    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
    It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
    No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
    I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.

    Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.

    Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.

    Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.

    Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
    Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.

    Well done nonetheless.
    Hang on, you make it sound like a foregone conclusion.
    If Rabbit, CCHQ are calling it for Hall and Labour are disheartened in London, WM and Teeside it doesn't look great.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,453

    Andy_JS said:

    ...

    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
    It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
    No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
    I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.

    Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.

    Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.

    Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.

    Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
    Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.

    Well done nonetheless.
    Hang on, you make it sound like a foregone conclusion.
    It’s an annoying tick of his. I think it’s just attention-seeking.
    I think MP was being sarcastic . I don’t think he was being serious .
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,386
    MJW said:

    Labour now saying London will be 'very very close'

    Bullshit.

    Why do parties engage in this sort of expectations management?
    Oh I don't know. Low turnout, assumed foregone conclusion leading to unenthused Labour voters deciding to vote Green, Lib Dem or Binface. If the votes are split then the Tory can win on a low vote.
    When the Tories are 20% behind in the polls, in a midterm election?

    The Labour vote could split six ways, the Tories would still lose.
    I think I'd still have it as a narrow Khan win. But do wonder if we're seeing the re-emergence of the Johnson doughnut. A lot of people are pissed off about ULEZ (and I say that as a supporter, politicians have to make decisions that are tough), and under FPTP there will be minor parties picking away at Khan's inner London support to make a point. It will be close I think. Happy to be wrong and Khan walk it.

    Mayoral elections are funny things as they're inbetween national elections - where it's clear people do or don't want change, and locals, where party loyalty and enthusiasm are a big thing.

    Anyway. I wouldn't be surprised if councils were dismal for Tories but did better than expected in Mayoral ones as are free to run on their own (or their opponents') personal brands, away from the national picture.
    Again, if you think it’s close, Hall is worth a punt surely as she is available even now at 18…
  • Options
    legatuslegatus Posts: 126
    HYUFD said:

    Everyone has got rather excited by the entertaining notion that Trump Hall has won London. But the source that the Usherwood had has been discounted by everyone else's sources. So lets assume not.

    But Blackpool? I said ages ago that ReFUK could do very well as its almost a perfect seat for them. And I assume the guy briefing the Times is actually from the party in person at the count...

    Blackpool was 67.5% Leave, if Reform can't beat the Tories there, where can they?
    No longer relevant because the issue has long lost its salience!
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,918
    GIN1138 said:

    Hall sliding back out towards 17 now.

    It's a Knockout!
    Hall now 19.

    Oh god it’s Laura K on the election show.

    Lord help us.
    Laura K has replaced Huw...
    Yet another reason to hate Rupert Murdoch
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,386
    nico679 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ...

    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
    It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
    No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
    I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.

    Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.

    Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.

    Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.

    Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
    Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.

    Well done nonetheless.
    Hang on, you make it sound like a foregone conclusion.
    It’s an annoying tick of his. I think it’s just attention-seeking.
    I think MP was being sarcastic . I don’t think he was being serious .
    Is he also being sarcastic every night when he bangs on about Sunak winning the General Election on 23 January?
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147
    edited May 2

    ...

    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
    It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
    No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
    I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.

    Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.

    Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.

    Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.

    Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
    Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.

    Well done nonetheless.
    Has she called Hall’s win?

    Have you?

    I mean, I have Hall at 31. So I take £310 off a tenner bet. That will buy a good dinner.

    You can also get 19 on Hall, right now.

    Which is free money, right?
    I'm taking Rabbit's word for it. If Khan loses that will be a seismic event, particularly in the light of Hall's catastrophic campaign. Nonetheless haven't I been warning you that your Labour landslide could be no more than the disappointment of 1992.
    I’m taking the opposite line to you MexPete! I’m saying neither she has definitely won, nor would it be a seismic event.

    Enough of your usual nonsense, off to bed with you.

    I’m simply explaining how exactly it would happen, and polls to be wrong.

    And as I said, it’s not just one reason media love as a headline. Though would mean Gaza is proving more of an issue for Labour than has been thought.

    Polls to be wrong? One firm with 20+ lead another of just 10, they can’t all be right anyway. The only bit they could be missing is Lab voters staying for variety of reasons, and probably angry at themselves Saturday afternoon!
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,101
    nico679 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ...

    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
    It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
    No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
    I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.

    Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.

    Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.

    Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.

    Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
    Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.

    Well done nonetheless.
    Hang on, you make it sound like a foregone conclusion.
    It’s an annoying tick of his. I think it’s just attention-seeking.
    I think MP was being sarcastic . I don’t think he was being serious .
    It's not beyond the realms of possibility and it could be very, very tight, but if Hall wins in a Labour city, on her abject performance, the GE is wide open. Anyway Anabobazina is triggered so all is good.

    Good night.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,357
    edited May 2

    HYUFD said:

    Everyone has got rather excited by the entertaining notion that Trump Hall has won London. But the source that the Usherwood had has been discounted by everyone else's sources. So lets assume not.

    But Blackpool? I said ages ago that ReFUK could do very well as its almost a perfect seat for them. And I assume the guy briefing the Times is actually from the party in person at the count...

    Blackpool was 67.5% Leave, if Reform can't beat the Tories there, where can they?
    By-elections are not Reform's natural habitat: too much intensity - too much data, personnel and campaign ability needed. Reform is short on all of them.

    Reform are only standing in two PCC elections - Derbyshire and Lincolnshire - but I'd keep an eye on how they get on there, where campaigning will have been much slacker.
    Even as someone who is very anti all three main parties, and has in the past voted Referendum Party, UKIP, Brexit Party and Jury List, I couldn't bring myself to vote for the Reform candidate for Lincolnshire PCC. I had read of all the manifestos from the candidates - Labour and Lib Dem typically 'lets kick the Tories', Tory typically 'I've done a great job don't risk it with Labour' and Reform just ranty, making lots of promises he couldn't possibly keep like defunding the PCC post. The only one that seemed marginally sane (remarkably) was the English Democrat bloke who will probably be lucky to get more than a handful of votes.

    I think the Tory will win but we are back in spoiled ballot territory again I'm afraid.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,386

    nico679 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ...

    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
    It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
    No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
    I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.

    Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.

    Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.

    Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.

    Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
    Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.

    Well done nonetheless.
    Hang on, you make it sound like a foregone conclusion.
    It’s an annoying tick of his. I think it’s just attention-seeking.
    I think MP was being sarcastic . I don’t think he was being serious .
    It's not beyond the realms of possibility and it could be very, very tight, but if Hall wins in a Labour city, on her abject performance, the GE is wide open. Anyway Anabobazina is triggered so all is good.

    Good night.
    You are just being a twit again, then. Glad we cleared it up!
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,101

    ...

    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
    It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
    No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
    I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.

    Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.

    Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.

    Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.

    Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
    Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.

    Well done nonetheless.
    Has she called Hall’s win?

    Have you?

    I mean, I have Hall at 31. So I take £310 off a tenner bet. That will buy a good dinner.

    You can also get 19 on Hall, right now.

    Which is free money, right?
    I'm taking Rabbit's word for it. If Khan loses that will be a seismic event, particularly in the light of Hall's catastrophic campaign. Nonetheless haven't I been warning you that your Labour landslide could be no more than the disappointment of 1992.
    I’m taking the opposite line to you MexPete! I’m saying neither she has definitely won, nor would it be a seismic event.

    Enough of your usual nonsense, off to be with you.

    I’m simply explaining how exactly it would happen, and polls to be wrong.

    And as I said, it’s not just one reason media love as a headline. Though would mean Gaza is proving more of an issue for Labour than has been thought.

    Polls to be wrong? One firm with 20+ lead another of just 10, they can’t all be right anyway.
    I've misread all your posts over the last week then.

    Good night .
  • Options
    legatuslegatus Posts: 126

    Labour now saying London will be 'very very close'

    Bullshit.

    Why do parties engage in this sort of expectations management?
    Oh I don't know. Low turnout, assumed foregone conclusion leading to unenthused Labour voters deciding to vote Green, Lib Dem or Binface. If the votes are split then the Tory can win on a low vote.
    When the Tories are 20% behind in the polls, in a midterm election?

    The Labour vote could split six ways, the Tories would still lose.
    Midterm was at least 12 months ago!
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,386

    ...

    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
    It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
    No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
    I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.

    Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.

    Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.

    Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.

    Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
    Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.

    Well done nonetheless.
    Has she called Hall’s win?

    Have you?

    I mean, I have Hall at 31. So I take £310 off a tenner bet. That will buy a good dinner.

    You can also get 19 on Hall, right now.

    Which is free money, right?
    I'm taking Rabbit's word for it. If Khan loses that will be a seismic event, particularly in the light of Hall's catastrophic campaign. Nonetheless haven't I been warning you that your Labour landslide could be no more than the disappointment of 1992.
    I’m taking the opposite line to you MexPete! I’m saying neither she has definitely won, nor would it be a seismic event.

    Enough of your usual nonsense, off to bed with you.

    I’m simply explaining how exactly it would happen, and polls to be wrong.

    And as I said, it’s not just one reason media love as a headline. Though would mean Gaza is proving more of an issue for Labour than has been thought.

    Polls to be wrong? One firm with 20+ lead another of just 10, they can’t all be right anyway. The only bit they could be missing is Lab voters staying for variety of reasons, and probably angry at themselves Saturday afternoon!
    It would be sufficiently seismic to still be available at 18 on BX. You are as bad as each other.

    Put up, or shut up.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147
    edited May 2

    nico679 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ...

    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
    It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
    No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
    I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.

    Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.

    Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.

    Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.

    Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
    Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.

    Well done nonetheless.
    Hang on, you make it sound like a foregone conclusion.
    It’s an annoying tick of his. I think it’s just attention-seeking.
    I think MP was being sarcastic . I don’t think he was being serious .
    Is he also being sarcastic every night when he bangs on about Sunak winning the General Election on 23 January?
    Yes.

    Every court has a fool.

    Calm down luv 😆
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,918
    Hall down to 15 on Betfair :cold_sweat:
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Doesn’t the vanilla search option work anymore?
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,101

    nico679 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ...

    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
    It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
    No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
    I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.

    Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.

    Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.

    Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.

    Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
    Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.

    Well done nonetheless.
    Hang on, you make it sound like a foregone conclusion.
    It’s an annoying tick of his. I think it’s just attention-seeking.
    I think MP was being sarcastic . I don’t think he was being serious .
    It's not beyond the realms of possibility and it could be very, very tight, but if Hall wins in a Labour city, on her abject performance, the GE is wide open. Anyway Anabobazina is triggered so all is good.

    Good night.
    You are just being a twit again, then. Glad we cleared it up!
    I am deadly serious about my disappointment in 1992 being repeated on 23rd January. Why would he go sooner?

    Good morning.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,101

    nico679 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ...

    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
    It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
    No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
    I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.

    Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.

    Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.

    Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.

    Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
    Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.

    Well done nonetheless.
    Hang on, you make it sound like a foregone conclusion.
    It’s an annoying tick of his. I think it’s just attention-seeking.
    I think MP was being sarcastic . I don’t think he was being serious .
    Is he also being sarcastic every night when he bangs on about Sunak winning the General Election on 23 January?
    Yes.

    Every court has a fool.

    Calm down luv 😆
    Your card is marked Rabbit!
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,172
    legatus said:

    Labour now saying London will be 'very very close'

    Bullshit.

    Why do parties engage in this sort of expectations management?
    Oh I don't know. Low turnout, assumed foregone conclusion leading to unenthused Labour voters deciding to vote Green, Lib Dem or Binface. If the votes are split then the Tory can win on a low vote.
    When the Tories are 20% behind in the polls, in a midterm election?

    The Labour vote could split six ways, the Tories would still lose.
    Midterm was at least 12 months ago!
    Yeah, we're in swingback territory now (albeit there's no sign in the opinion polls. Yet)
  • Options
    WillGWillG Posts: 2,224
    Oh look, Muslim convert George Galloway is a bigot towards gay people.

    https://www.thepinknews.com/2024/05/02/george-galloway/
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,925
    I don’t think Hall has won. But I don’t think it’s inconceivable that she’s run Khan close.

    Let us not forget that Khan, rightly or wrongly, is one of the more divisive politicians in the UK at the moment. Yes, the Labour brand is doing well, but Khan has 8 years as mayor and a lot of history to be judged on.

    Add in differential turnout and a complacency in the Labour vote and you can easily see a margin of below 10%. Personally I think a margin of just under 5%, but that’s my sticking-my-neck out, prepared to eat humble pie prediction.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,009
    edited May 2
    If Moonrabbit is predicting a Hall win, then lump on a massive Khan victory.
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,918
    Labour Hold Sunderland Council

    300 seat Majority for Starmer nailed on now
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,634
    edited May 2

    I don’t think Hall has won. But I don’t think it’s inconceivable that she’s run Khan close.

    Let us not forget that Khan, rightly or wrongly, is one of the more divisive politicians in the UK at the moment. Yes, the Labour brand is doing well, but Khan has 8 years as mayor and a lot of history to be judged on.

    Add in differential turnout and a complacency in the Labour vote and you can easily see a margin of below 10%. Personally I think a margin of just under 5%, but that’s my sticking-my-neck out, prepared to eat humble pie prediction.

    Well Khan's margin was only 4.7% last time on 1st prefs, and politicians don't usually become more popular over time.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,009
    First result:

    Copt Hill (Sunderland):

    LAB: 59.8% (+16.9)
    CON: 13.2% (-13.7)
    RFM: 12.3% (New)
    GRN: 10.2% (+1.9)
    LDM: 4.4% (-4.4)

    No UKIP (-13.0) as previous.

    Labour HOLD.
    Changes w/ 2021.

    Seems a bit meh.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,453
    edited May 2
    Going by the first few results the Tories will be relieved Reform are only standing councilors in about 12% of councils.

    The Tory vote is collapsing in Sunderland.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147

    ...

    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
    It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
    No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
    I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.

    Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.

    Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.

    Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.

    Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
    Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.

    Well done nonetheless.
    Has she called Hall’s win?

    Have you?

    I mean, I have Hall at 31. So I take £310 off a tenner bet. That will buy a good dinner.

    You can also get 19 on Hall, right now.

    Which is free money, right?
    I'm taking Rabbit's word for it. If Khan loses that will be a seismic event, particularly in the light of Hall's catastrophic campaign. Nonetheless haven't I been warning you that your Labour landslide could be no more than the disappointment of 1992.
    I’m taking the opposite line to you MexPete! I’m saying neither she has definitely won, nor would it be a seismic event.

    Enough of your usual nonsense, off to bed with you.

    I’m simply explaining how exactly it would happen, and polls to be wrong.

    And as I said, it’s not just one reason media love as a headline. Though would mean Gaza is proving more of an issue for Labour than has been thought.

    Polls to be wrong? One firm with 20+ lead another of just 10, they can’t all be right anyway. The only bit they could be missing is Lab voters staying for variety of reasons, and probably angry at themselves Saturday afternoon!
    It would be sufficiently seismic to still be available at 18 on BX. You are as bad as each other.

    Put up, or shut up.
    She’s not going to win. It was a mischievous rumour. Trump Hall sums her up - 2 PMQ questions and the Guardian report yesterday about her dealings with vile WhatsApps needs to wake everyone up, Tory as well as Labour.

    Khans winning margin could be in single figures, if both camps hyping it like this, but likely teens we both agree?

    But. Everything I explained about what works against Khan and for Hall is true. Up and down the country councillors and councils and like Khan Mayors have made tough culture changing decisions for their communities, and will lose because of it, and not all those opponents they lose to will be worthy of the win.

    Do a few T R U S S ‘s and calm yourself down. Don’t let mischief mex get to you.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,101
    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t think Hall has won. But I don’t think it’s inconceivable that she’s run Khan close.

    Let us not forget that Khan, rightly or wrongly, is one of the more divisive politicians in the UK at the moment. Yes, the Labour brand is doing well, but Khan has 8 years as mayor and a lot of history to be judged on.

    Add in differential turnout and a complacency in the Labour vote and you can easily see a margin of below 10%. Personally I think a margin of just under 5%, but that’s my sticking-my-neck out, prepared to eat humble pie prediction.

    Well Khan's margin was only 4.7% last time on 1st prefs, and politicians don't usually become more popular over time.
    So now you're calling it for Hall.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147

    First result:

    Copt Hill (Sunderland):

    LAB: 59.8% (+16.9)
    CON: 13.2% (-13.7)
    RFM: 12.3% (New)
    GRN: 10.2% (+1.9)
    LDM: 4.4% (-4.4)

    No UKIP (-13.0) as previous.

    Labour HOLD.
    Changes w/ 2021.

    Seems a bit meh.

    Seems a bit meh, but it’s not a Tory defending seat, so good Labour increase considering that.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147
    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t think Hall has won. But I don’t think it’s inconceivable that she’s run Khan close.

    Let us not forget that Khan, rightly or wrongly, is one of the more divisive politicians in the UK at the moment. Yes, the Labour brand is doing well, but Khan has 8 years as mayor and a lot of history to be judged on.

    Add in differential turnout and a complacency in the Labour vote and you can easily see a margin of below 10%. Personally I think a margin of just under 5%, but that’s my sticking-my-neck out, prepared to eat humble pie prediction.

    Well Khan's margin was only 4.7% last time on 1st prefs, and politicians don't usually become more popular over time.
    But the switch to first past the post has likely helped Khan in that regard.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,046

    First result:

    Copt Hill (Sunderland):

    LAB: 59.8% (+16.9)
    CON: 13.2% (-13.7)
    RFM: 12.3% (New)
    GRN: 10.2% (+1.9)
    LDM: 4.4% (-4.4)

    No UKIP (-13.0) as previous.

    Labour HOLD.
    Changes w/ 2021.

    Seems a bit meh.

    15% swing to Labour
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147

    If Moonrabbit is predicting a Hall win, then lump on a massive Khan victory.

    She’s not.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,453

    First result:

    Copt Hill (Sunderland):

    LAB: 59.8% (+16.9)
    CON: 13.2% (-13.7)
    RFM: 12.3% (New)
    GRN: 10.2% (+1.9)
    LDM: 4.4% (-4.4)

    No UKIP (-13.0) as previous.

    Labour HOLD.
    Changes w/ 2021.

    Seems a bit meh.

    15% swing to Labour
    That was one of the better results for the Tories in terms of vote drop . Their vote is going through the floor in most other wards.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,503
    Binface 50/1 w/o Khan and Hall....
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147

    nico679 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ...

    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
    It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
    No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
    I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.

    Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.

    Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.

    Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.

    Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
    Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.

    Well done nonetheless.
    Hang on, you make it sound like a foregone conclusion.
    It’s an annoying tick of his. I think it’s just attention-seeking.
    I think MP was being sarcastic . I don’t think he was being serious .
    Is he also being sarcastic every night when he bangs on about Sunak winning the General Election on 23 January?
    Yes.

    Every court has a fool.

    Calm down luv 😆
    Your card is marked Rabbit!
    All rabbits cards are marked. Lord Frith saw to that 😌
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,634
    "Politics UK
    @PolitlcsUK

    Susan Hall's core inner circle also believe she has won"

    https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1786154035944259826
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,009

    If Moonrabbit is predicting a Hall win, then lump on a massive Khan victory.

    She’s not.
    You remind me of that OJ Simpson book, “If I Did It: Confessions of the Killer”.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,453
    The Tories are now getting trounced in Leicestershire by the Lib Dems .
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147

    If Moonrabbit is predicting a Hall win, then lump on a massive Khan victory.

    She’s not.
    You remind me of that OJ Simpson book, “If I Did It: Confessions of the Killer”.
    OJ died of hand asphyxiation from wearing gloves two sizes too small.
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,178

    I don’t think Hall has won. But I don’t think it’s inconceivable that she’s run Khan close.

    Let us not forget that Khan, rightly or wrongly, is one of the more divisive politicians in the UK at the moment. Yes, the Labour brand is doing well, but Khan has 8 years as mayor and a lot of history to be judged on.

    Add in differential turnout and a complacency in the Labour vote and you can easily see a margin of below 10%. Personally I think a margin of just under 5%, but that’s my sticking-my-neck out, prepared to eat humble pie prediction.

    My feeling is that the forced choice enforced by the voting system change will help support Khan's vote. I'd expect the Labour GLA candidates to underperform, particularly in inner london.

    Does anyone know if the londonelects site will show live progress during the count? I know they did in previous years, but this time they're counting by hand...
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    478 council seats lost could be worse for the Conservatives. At this stage of the local elections cycle the Tories lost 607 council seats in 1996 for instance and Labour lost almost as many, 464, in 2004

    Boundary Commission has however reduced seat numbers since the 1990's.
  • Options
    MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,522

    First result:

    Copt Hill (Sunderland):

    LAB: 59.8% (+16.9)
    CON: 13.2% (-13.7)
    RFM: 12.3% (New)
    GRN: 10.2% (+1.9)
    LDM: 4.4% (-4.4)

    No UKIP (-13.0) as previous.

    Labour HOLD.
    Changes w/ 2021.

    Seems a bit meh.

    Is it? Shows me that Reform voters are willing to fuck the Conservatives.

    CCHQ should be terrified that they no longer benefit from LLG splitting the vote now that big Nige is gonna take half their voters in all those ageing, WWC, homeowning constituencies.
  • Options
    DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    edited May 2
    What kind of pervy neo-spin is this, the idea that Hall has won? She obviously hasn't won.
    The interesting question is whether or not the local election results will lead to the downfall of the prime minister.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,957
    edited May 2
    Andy_JS said:

    "Politics UK
    @PolitlcsUK

    Susan Hall's core inner circle also believe she has won"

    https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1786154035944259826

    They haven't employed the muppets Ed Miliband used in 2015 that were telling him he was winning, all while the Tories were even further ahead than anybody thought.

    The penny didn't even drop when Paddy Power paid out reallt early.
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,918
    edited May 2
    Andy_JS said:

    "Politics UK
    @PolitlcsUK

    Susan Hall's core inner circle also believe she has won"

    https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1786154035944259826

    Well, as the PB trope goes, Mandy Rice Davies applies doesn't it?

    (Back up to 18 on BF by the way. If she wins, I'm quitting betting forever).
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,503

    First result:

    Copt Hill (Sunderland):

    LAB: 59.8% (+16.9)
    CON: 13.2% (-13.7)
    RFM: 12.3% (New)
    GRN: 10.2% (+1.9)
    LDM: 4.4% (-4.4)

    No UKIP (-13.0) as previous.

    Labour HOLD.
    Changes w/ 2021.

    Seems a bit meh.

    Is it? Shows me that Reform voters are willing to fuck the Conservatives.

    CCHQ should be terrified that they no longer benefit from LLG splitting the vote now that big Nige is gonna take half their voters in all those ageing, WWC, homeowning constituencies.
    There will be regional differences. The idea of binning HS2, replacing it with Network North, talking about massive infrastructure boosts for the north and then on inspection finding it included budgets for pothole maintenance in London has not proved quite as popular as the Tories would have liked.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,009
    Labour on the slide!

    Washington West (Sunderland) council election result:

    LAB: 51.6% (-0.2)
    REF: 18.0% (+18.0)
    CON: 14.4% (-18.0)
    GRN: 8.2% (-0.4)
    LDEM: 7.8% (+2.9)

    Labour HOLD.
  • Options
    AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 209
    nico679 said:

    The Tories are now getting trounced in Leicestershire by the Lib Dems .

    Really? More details, please, if you have them.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,403
    nico679 said:

    The Tories are now getting trounced in Leicestershire by the Lib Dems .

    I don’t think Leicestershire is being contested.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,503
    Andy_JS said:

    "Politics UK
    @PolitlcsUK

    Susan Hall's core inner circle also believe she has won"

    https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1786154035944259826

    We really need to know what her non-core inner circle thinks? Not to mention her outer circle ideally too.
  • Options
    theoldpoliticstheoldpolitics Posts: 254
    Sean_F said:

    nico679 said:

    The Tories are now getting trounced in Leicestershire by the Lib Dems .

    I don’t think Leicestershire is being contested.
    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1786174130066235817
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,453

    nico679 said:

    The Tories are now getting trounced in Leicestershire by the Lib Dems .

    Really? More details, please, if you have them.
    Apparently in Burbage , Leics. The Lib Dems gained a seat from the Tories .
  • Options
    DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    edited May 2
    CatMan said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Politics UK
    @PolitlcsUK

    Susan Hall's core inner circle also believe she has won"

    https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1786154035944259826

    Well, as the PB trope goes, Mandy Rice Davies applies doesn't it?

    (Back up to 18 on BF by the way. If she wins, I'm quitting betting forever).
    MRD doesn't apply, though. It's not normal for a party that's had its arse whupped to say at ~1am that it thinks it's won. I'm torn between believing this is just forgettable crap talk and thinking it's an effort at clever psywar. It's probably the former. That's a pity, because after this bottle of wine I would appreciate an effort at clever psywar.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,386
    Laura K really is unbearable.

    Good night all.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147

    Labour on the slide!

    Washington West (Sunderland) council election result:

    LAB: 51.6% (-0.2)
    REF: 18.0% (+18.0)
    CON: 14.4% (-18.0)
    GRN: 8.2% (-0.4)
    LDEM: 7.8% (+2.9)

    Labour HOLD.

    Not below 50%

    Are you trying to pull a Mexican? Are you Mexicaning us?
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,453
    edited May 2
    It’s clear that if Reform had fielded a much bigger set of candidates the Tories would be in a complete meltdown .
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,634
    BBC election show: one moment they say Blackpool South has almost finished counting, the next they report that counting hasn't even started.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147

    Andy_JS said:

    "Politics UK
    @PolitlcsUK

    Susan Hall's core inner circle also believe she has won"

    https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1786154035944259826

    We really need to know what her non-core inner circle thinks? Not to mention her outer circle ideally too.
    Her anatomy is based on the London constituency?

    Do things go quicker around her head and pay per millimetre around her navel?
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147
    Andy_JS said:

    BBC election show: one moment they say Blackpool South has almost finished counting, the next they report that counting hasn't even started.

    3am I think.
  • Options
    DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 307
    Donkeys said:

    CatMan said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Politics UK
    @PolitlcsUK

    Susan Hall's core inner circle also believe she has won"

    https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1786154035944259826

    Well, as the PB trope goes, Mandy Rice Davies applies doesn't it?

    (Back up to 18 on BF by the way. If she wins, I'm quitting betting forever).
    MRD doesn't apply, though. It's not normal for a party that's had its arse whupped to say at ~1am that it thinks it's won. I'm torn between believing this is just forgettable crap talk and thinking it's an effort at clever psywar. It's probably the former. That's a pity, because after this bottle of wine I would appreciate an effort at clever psywar.
    What would be clever about it?
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    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,178
    Donkeys said:

    CatMan said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Politics UK
    @PolitlcsUK

    Susan Hall's core inner circle also believe she has won"

    https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1786154035944259826

    Well, as the PB trope goes, Mandy Rice Davies applies doesn't it?

    (Back up to 18 on BF by the way. If she wins, I'm quitting betting forever).
    MRD doesn't apply, though. It's not normal for a party that's had its arse whupped to say at ~1am that it's won. I'm torn between believing this is just forgettable crap talk and thinking it's an effort at clever psywar. It's probably the former.
    It'd be a proper earthquake if true.

    The Hall campaign has been almost entirely focussed on Facebook and micro-targetted online advertising. The traditional media have been almost entirely ignored, she has no website to speak of, and only got round to publishing a manifesto 3-4 days ago.

    So, if she does win (or even come close), then we should expect the GE campaign to be radically different to anything we've seen before - with cash being hosed at Meta to the exclusion of almost everything else.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,179
    LibDems posted multiple courses of YIMBY propaganda through my letterbox, so voted them for Mayor and my AM (who is similarly impressive).

    However the only result I care about is W.Mids. I've known Street for a majority of my life and he is exactly the sort of person our politics needs. Fingers crossed for him.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,453
    Rumours that the Tories are going to be wiped out in Redditch and Lincoln .
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,191
    nico679 said:

    Rumours that the Tories are going to be wiped out in Redditch and Lincoln .

    Ceasefire now!
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,634
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    MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,522

    First result:

    Copt Hill (Sunderland):

    LAB: 59.8% (+16.9)
    CON: 13.2% (-13.7)
    RFM: 12.3% (New)
    GRN: 10.2% (+1.9)
    LDM: 4.4% (-4.4)

    No UKIP (-13.0) as previous.

    Labour HOLD.
    Changes w/ 2021.

    Seems a bit meh.

    Is it? Shows me that Reform voters are willing to fuck the Conservatives.

    CCHQ should be terrified that they no longer benefit from LLG splitting the vote now that big Nige is gonna take half their voters in all those ageing, WWC, homeowning constituencies.
    There will be regional differences. The idea of binning HS2, replacing it with Network North, talking about massive infrastructure boosts for the north and then on inspection finding it included budgets for pothole maintenance in London has not proved quite as popular as the Tories would have liked.
    Sure but if replicated... Reform have become viable. The Conservatives no longer have such an efficient voting block. And when they're at such polling lows we'll see FPTP at its most maleficent.

    Can we say Canada when Sunak is forced to go in January?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,403
    nico679 said:

    It’s clear that if Reform had fielded a much bigger set of candidates the Tories would be in a complete meltdown .

    Reform have lost their only councillor in Sunderland, and were comfortably beaten to second place by the Conservative, in that ward.

    Reform are picking up some support in wards where UKIP did well, but falling far short of that party.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,453

    nico679 said:

    Rumours that the Tories are going to be wiped out in Redditch and Lincoln .

    Ceasefire now!
    Redditch would be an astonishing result , they have 16 councilors there and run the council.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147
    Andy_JS said:
    If voters anywhere on earth hates the ongoing migrant crisis more than UK, it’s Ireland. How tempted will the Republics politicians be by this offer?
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,563
    edited May 2
    AlsoLei said:

    Donkeys said:

    CatMan said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Politics UK
    @PolitlcsUK

    Susan Hall's core inner circle also believe she has won"

    https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1786154035944259826

    Well, as the PB trope goes, Mandy Rice Davies applies doesn't it?

    (Back up to 18 on BF by the way. If she wins, I'm quitting betting forever).
    MRD doesn't apply, though. It's not normal for a party that's had its arse whupped to say at ~1am that it's won. I'm torn between believing this is just forgettable crap talk and thinking it's an effort at clever psywar. It's probably the former.
    It'd be a proper earthquake if true.

    The Hall campaign has been almost entirely focussed on Facebook and micro-targetted online advertising. The traditional media have been almost entirely ignored, she has no website to speak of, and only got round to publishing a manifesto 3-4 days ago.

    So, if she does win (or even come close), then we should expect the GE campaign to be radically different to anything we've seen before - with cash being hosed at Meta to the exclusion of almost everything else.
    Wasn't that how the Cons shafted the LDs in 2015?
  • Options
    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,268

    First result:

    Copt Hill (Sunderland):

    LAB: 59.8% (+16.9)
    CON: 13.2% (-13.7)
    RFM: 12.3% (New)
    GRN: 10.2% (+1.9)
    LDM: 4.4% (-4.4)

    No UKIP (-13.0) as previous.

    Labour HOLD.
    Changes w/ 2021.

    Seems a bit meh.

    Is it? Shows me that Reform voters are willing to fuck the Conservatives.

    CCHQ should be terrified that they no longer benefit from LLG splitting the vote now that big Nige is gonna take half their voters in all those ageing, WWC, homeowning constituencies.
    Half of the former LD voters there making damned sure the Tory doesn't win.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,634
    "Labour gain Hartlepool" won't butter any parsnips if they lose in London.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,563
    My Coop Shop was promising me prize-draws today to win a ticket to Coop Live.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,453
    Sean_F said:

    nico679 said:

    It’s clear that if Reform had fielded a much bigger set of candidates the Tories would be in a complete meltdown .

    Reform have lost their only councillor in Sunderland, and were comfortably beaten to second place by the Conservative, in that ward.

    Reform are picking up some support in wards where UKIP did well, but falling far short of that party.
    Still the night is young ! We need to see other councils.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147
    What is a par score for Labour in the Blackpool South by-election. Opinion polls showing 15% swings on average across the country? 15% swing the par score?
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,179
    Andy_JS said:

    "Labour gain Hartlepool" won't butter any parsnips if they lose in London.

    Labour losing London in 2023 would be like the Tories losing Henley in1997. Ain't going to happen. However just 28 years seperate Henley between being dies in the wool tory and being an almost certain LD gain...
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    NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 729
    Andy_JS said:

    BBC election show: one moment they say Blackpool South has almost finished counting, the next they report that counting hasn't even started.

    Well, the pictures showed counters sitting idly at their tables. Not an unreasonable inference, but in fact presumably ballot boxes hadn’t even reached them yet. :smile:
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,453
    Andy_JS said:

    "Labour gain Hartlepool" won't butter any parsnips if they lose in London.

    Agreed. If Labour do lose London then it’s down to the voting system change. Much depends on whether Reform get the 6% with other pollsters or just 2% in Savanta .
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    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,600
    kle4 said: "I still maintain some offences should result in permanent punishment. Being found guilty of corrupt electoral practices should mean you never get another opportunity to corrupt an election (at least for yourself) ever again."

    As I recall the state of Maryland had (and may still have, for all I know) a law just like that.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,172

    First result:

    Copt Hill (Sunderland):

    LAB: 59.8% (+16.9)
    CON: 13.2% (-13.7)
    RFM: 12.3% (New)
    GRN: 10.2% (+1.9)
    LDM: 4.4% (-4.4)

    No UKIP (-13.0) as previous.

    Labour HOLD.
    Changes w/ 2021.

    Seems a bit meh.

    Is it? Shows me that Reform voters are willing to fuck the Conservatives.

    CCHQ should be terrified that they no longer benefit from LLG splitting the vote now that big Nige is gonna take half their voters in all those ageing, WWC, homeowning constituencies.
    There will be regional differences. The idea of binning HS2, replacing it with Network North, talking about massive infrastructure boosts for the north and then on inspection finding it included budgets for pothole maintenance in London has not proved quite as popular as the Tories would have liked.
    Sure but if replicated... Reform have become viable. The Conservatives no longer have such an efficient voting block. And when they're at such polling lows we'll see FPTP at its most maleficent.

    Can we say Canada when Sunak is forced to go in January?
    Nah. Most of these Con > Ref switchers will go back to Con at the general election, IMO.

    Con will survive - As they always do.
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    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,918
    MattW said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Donkeys said:

    CatMan said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Politics UK
    @PolitlcsUK

    Susan Hall's core inner circle also believe she has won"

    https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1786154035944259826

    Well, as the PB trope goes, Mandy Rice Davies applies doesn't it?

    (Back up to 18 on BF by the way. If she wins, I'm quitting betting forever).
    MRD doesn't apply, though. It's not normal for a party that's had its arse whupped to say at ~1am that it's won. I'm torn between believing this is just forgettable crap talk and thinking it's an effort at clever psywar. It's probably the former.
    It'd be a proper earthquake if true.

    The Hall campaign has been almost entirely focussed on Facebook and micro-targetted online advertising. The traditional media have been almost entirely ignored, she has no website to speak of, and only got round to publishing a manifesto 3-4 days ago.

    So, if she does win (or even come close), then we should expect the GE campaign to be radically different to anything we've seen before - with cash being hosed at Meta to the exclusion of almost everything else.
    Wasn't that how the Cons shafted the LDs in 2015?
    That and FPTP
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,403
    edited May 3
    Looking at the wards where there is some Conservative strength in Sunderland (there are a few) like St. Anne’s, or Barne, Washington South, Reform are finishing far behind them
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,453
    Biggest drop of the night so far was 35% for the Tories in Ryhope , Sunderland .
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147
    NeilVW said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC election show: one moment they say Blackpool South has almost finished counting, the next they report that counting hasn't even started.

    Well, the pictures showed counters sitting idly at their tables. Not an unreasonable inference, but in fact presumably ballot boxes hadn’t even reached them yet. :smile:
    I think they check them first before counting. Wheat from the chaff.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,634
    This is the deputy leader of Sutton Conservatives.

    "James McDermott-Hill
    @JamesMDH

    I know the polls have closed now but according to the likes of
    @wesstreeting
    - who by the way I used to think reasonably of - I’m the type of person who by voting for Susan Hall secretly has a white pointy hood in my cupboard. It’s pretty low and disgraceful politics really 1/2
    12:35 AM · May 3, 2024


    James McDermott-Hill
    @JamesMDH
    ·
    36m
    It generally debases our political discourse to talk like this and reduces the ability for people with different opinions to talk to each other. Wes may bristle at this but what he’s doing is no different to what Trump is saying about his opponents across the pond. Do better 2/2."

    https://twitter.com/JamesMDH/status/1786177661762437527
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    sladeslade Posts: 1,962
    Con hold in Bournemouth.
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    MJWMJW Posts: 1,527

    Andy_JS said:
    If voters anywhere on earth hates the ongoing migrant crisis more than UK, it’s Ireland. How tempted will the Republics politicians be by this offer?
    Why would they be tempted to join a UK scheme that is almost certain not to work rather than an EU one that might?
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147
    slade said:

    Con hold in Bournemouth.

    Con hold in Broxtowe too.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,414
    Newcastle: Both LDs and Green have gained seats from Lab.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,404

    slade said:

    Con hold in Bournemouth.

    Con hold in Broxtowe too.
    Broxbourne, surely?
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,414

    slade said:

    Con hold in Bournemouth.

    Con hold in Broxtowe too.
    Broxbourne, surely?
    Yes, Broxbourne!
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,403
    The Conservatives narrowly lost St. Pater’s Sunderland, to Labour, with 1,071 votes to 411 for Reform.

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    sladeslade Posts: 1,962
    Hans Christian Andersen stood for the Lib Dems in Newcastle. He did not win.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,414
    edited May 3
    BBC KEY WARDS - CHANGE SINCE 2023 (LAST YEAR!):

    Lab -0.4
    Con -3
    LD -2
    Grn +2
    Ref +4
    Ind -1
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147
    MJW said:

    Andy_JS said:
    If voters anywhere on earth hates the ongoing migrant crisis more than UK, it’s Ireland. How tempted will the Republics politicians be by this offer?
    Why would they be tempted to join a UK scheme that is almost certain not to work rather than an EU one that might?
    Yours is a rational response. But a General Election is coming there too - does the fob the voters off option, or take the rational route, cost you more votes?
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,403
    For the umpteenth time, Broxbourne returns 9 Con to 1 Lab
This discussion has been closed.