As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.
Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.
Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.
Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.
Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.
Well done nonetheless.
Hang on, you make it sound like a foregone conclusion.
It’s an annoying tick of his. I think it’s just attention-seeking.
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.
Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.
Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.
Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.
Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.
Well done nonetheless.
Has she called Hall’s win?
Have you?
I mean, I have Hall at 31. So I take £310 off a tenner bet. That will buy a good dinner.
You can also get 19 on Hall, right now.
Which is free money, right?
Keep an eye on whether you can cash out your dinner money for a profit, and maybe a takeaway pizza.
I was offered £3.70 at her high watermark earlier. Might have got me half a lager and a bag of nuts.
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.
Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.
Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.
Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.
Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.
Well done nonetheless.
Hang on, you make it sound like a foregone conclusion.
If Rabbit, CCHQ are calling it for Hall and Labour are disheartened in London, WM and Teeside it doesn't look great.
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.
Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.
Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.
Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.
Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.
Well done nonetheless.
Hang on, you make it sound like a foregone conclusion.
It’s an annoying tick of his. I think it’s just attention-seeking.
I think MP was being sarcastic . I don’t think he was being serious .
Labour now saying London will be 'very very close'
Bullshit.
Why do parties engage in this sort of expectations management?
Oh I don't know. Low turnout, assumed foregone conclusion leading to unenthused Labour voters deciding to vote Green, Lib Dem or Binface. If the votes are split then the Tory can win on a low vote.
When the Tories are 20% behind in the polls, in a midterm election?
The Labour vote could split six ways, the Tories would still lose.
I think I'd still have it as a narrow Khan win. But do wonder if we're seeing the re-emergence of the Johnson doughnut. A lot of people are pissed off about ULEZ (and I say that as a supporter, politicians have to make decisions that are tough), and under FPTP there will be minor parties picking away at Khan's inner London support to make a point. It will be close I think. Happy to be wrong and Khan walk it.
Mayoral elections are funny things as they're inbetween national elections - where it's clear people do or don't want change, and locals, where party loyalty and enthusiasm are a big thing.
Anyway. I wouldn't be surprised if councils were dismal for Tories but did better than expected in Mayoral ones as are free to run on their own (or their opponents') personal brands, away from the national picture.
Again, if you think it’s close, Hall is worth a punt surely as she is available even now at 18…
Everyone has got rather excited by the entertaining notion that Trump Hall has won London. But the source that the Usherwood had has been discounted by everyone else's sources. So lets assume not.
But Blackpool? I said ages ago that ReFUK could do very well as its almost a perfect seat for them. And I assume the guy briefing the Times is actually from the party in person at the count...
Blackpool was 67.5% Leave, if Reform can't beat the Tories there, where can they?
No longer relevant because the issue has long lost its salience!
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.
Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.
Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.
Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.
Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.
Well done nonetheless.
Hang on, you make it sound like a foregone conclusion.
It’s an annoying tick of his. I think it’s just attention-seeking.
I think MP was being sarcastic . I don’t think he was being serious .
Is he also being sarcastic every night when he bangs on about Sunak winning the General Election on 23 January?
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.
Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.
Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.
Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.
Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.
Well done nonetheless.
Has she called Hall’s win?
Have you?
I mean, I have Hall at 31. So I take £310 off a tenner bet. That will buy a good dinner.
You can also get 19 on Hall, right now.
Which is free money, right?
I'm taking Rabbit's word for it. If Khan loses that will be a seismic event, particularly in the light of Hall's catastrophic campaign. Nonetheless haven't I been warning you that your Labour landslide could be no more than the disappointment of 1992.
I’m taking the opposite line to you MexPete! I’m saying neither she has definitely won, nor would it be a seismic event.
Enough of your usual nonsense, off to bed with you.
I’m simply explaining how exactly it would happen, and polls to be wrong.
And as I said, it’s not just one reason media love as a headline. Though would mean Gaza is proving more of an issue for Labour than has been thought.
Polls to be wrong? One firm with 20+ lead another of just 10, they can’t all be right anyway. The only bit they could be missing is Lab voters staying for variety of reasons, and probably angry at themselves Saturday afternoon!
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.
Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.
Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.
Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.
Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.
Well done nonetheless.
Hang on, you make it sound like a foregone conclusion.
It’s an annoying tick of his. I think it’s just attention-seeking.
I think MP was being sarcastic . I don’t think he was being serious .
It's not beyond the realms of possibility and it could be very, very tight, but if Hall wins in a Labour city, on her abject performance, the GE is wide open. Anyway Anabobazina is triggered so all is good.
Everyone has got rather excited by the entertaining notion that Trump Hall has won London. But the source that the Usherwood had has been discounted by everyone else's sources. So lets assume not.
But Blackpool? I said ages ago that ReFUK could do very well as its almost a perfect seat for them. And I assume the guy briefing the Times is actually from the party in person at the count...
Blackpool was 67.5% Leave, if Reform can't beat the Tories there, where can they?
By-elections are not Reform's natural habitat: too much intensity - too much data, personnel and campaign ability needed. Reform is short on all of them.
Reform are only standing in two PCC elections - Derbyshire and Lincolnshire - but I'd keep an eye on how they get on there, where campaigning will have been much slacker.
Even as someone who is very anti all three main parties, and has in the past voted Referendum Party, UKIP, Brexit Party and Jury List, I couldn't bring myself to vote for the Reform candidate for Lincolnshire PCC. I had read of all the manifestos from the candidates - Labour and Lib Dem typically 'lets kick the Tories', Tory typically 'I've done a great job don't risk it with Labour' and Reform just ranty, making lots of promises he couldn't possibly keep like defunding the PCC post. The only one that seemed marginally sane (remarkably) was the English Democrat bloke who will probably be lucky to get more than a handful of votes.
I think the Tory will win but we are back in spoiled ballot territory again I'm afraid.
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.
Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.
Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.
Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.
Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.
Well done nonetheless.
Hang on, you make it sound like a foregone conclusion.
It’s an annoying tick of his. I think it’s just attention-seeking.
I think MP was being sarcastic . I don’t think he was being serious .
It's not beyond the realms of possibility and it could be very, very tight, but if Hall wins in a Labour city, on her abject performance, the GE is wide open. Anyway Anabobazina is triggered so all is good.
Good night.
You are just being a twit again, then. Glad we cleared it up!
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.
Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.
Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.
Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.
Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.
Well done nonetheless.
Has she called Hall’s win?
Have you?
I mean, I have Hall at 31. So I take £310 off a tenner bet. That will buy a good dinner.
You can also get 19 on Hall, right now.
Which is free money, right?
I'm taking Rabbit's word for it. If Khan loses that will be a seismic event, particularly in the light of Hall's catastrophic campaign. Nonetheless haven't I been warning you that your Labour landslide could be no more than the disappointment of 1992.
I’m taking the opposite line to you MexPete! I’m saying neither she has definitely won, nor would it be a seismic event.
Enough of your usual nonsense, off to be with you.
I’m simply explaining how exactly it would happen, and polls to be wrong.
And as I said, it’s not just one reason media love as a headline. Though would mean Gaza is proving more of an issue for Labour than has been thought.
Polls to be wrong? One firm with 20+ lead another of just 10, they can’t all be right anyway.
I've misread all your posts over the last week then.
Labour now saying London will be 'very very close'
Bullshit.
Why do parties engage in this sort of expectations management?
Oh I don't know. Low turnout, assumed foregone conclusion leading to unenthused Labour voters deciding to vote Green, Lib Dem or Binface. If the votes are split then the Tory can win on a low vote.
When the Tories are 20% behind in the polls, in a midterm election?
The Labour vote could split six ways, the Tories would still lose.
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.
Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.
Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.
Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.
Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.
Well done nonetheless.
Has she called Hall’s win?
Have you?
I mean, I have Hall at 31. So I take £310 off a tenner bet. That will buy a good dinner.
You can also get 19 on Hall, right now.
Which is free money, right?
I'm taking Rabbit's word for it. If Khan loses that will be a seismic event, particularly in the light of Hall's catastrophic campaign. Nonetheless haven't I been warning you that your Labour landslide could be no more than the disappointment of 1992.
I’m taking the opposite line to you MexPete! I’m saying neither she has definitely won, nor would it be a seismic event.
Enough of your usual nonsense, off to bed with you.
I’m simply explaining how exactly it would happen, and polls to be wrong.
And as I said, it’s not just one reason media love as a headline. Though would mean Gaza is proving more of an issue for Labour than has been thought.
Polls to be wrong? One firm with 20+ lead another of just 10, they can’t all be right anyway. The only bit they could be missing is Lab voters staying for variety of reasons, and probably angry at themselves Saturday afternoon!
It would be sufficiently seismic to still be available at 18 on BX. You are as bad as each other.
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.
Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.
Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.
Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.
Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.
Well done nonetheless.
Hang on, you make it sound like a foregone conclusion.
It’s an annoying tick of his. I think it’s just attention-seeking.
I think MP was being sarcastic . I don’t think he was being serious .
Is he also being sarcastic every night when he bangs on about Sunak winning the General Election on 23 January?
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.
Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.
Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.
Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.
Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.
Well done nonetheless.
Hang on, you make it sound like a foregone conclusion.
It’s an annoying tick of his. I think it’s just attention-seeking.
I think MP was being sarcastic . I don’t think he was being serious .
It's not beyond the realms of possibility and it could be very, very tight, but if Hall wins in a Labour city, on her abject performance, the GE is wide open. Anyway Anabobazina is triggered so all is good.
Good night.
You are just being a twit again, then. Glad we cleared it up!
I am deadly serious about my disappointment in 1992 being repeated on 23rd January. Why would he go sooner?
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.
Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.
Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.
Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.
Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.
Well done nonetheless.
Hang on, you make it sound like a foregone conclusion.
It’s an annoying tick of his. I think it’s just attention-seeking.
I think MP was being sarcastic . I don’t think he was being serious .
Is he also being sarcastic every night when he bangs on about Sunak winning the General Election on 23 January?
Labour now saying London will be 'very very close'
Bullshit.
Why do parties engage in this sort of expectations management?
Oh I don't know. Low turnout, assumed foregone conclusion leading to unenthused Labour voters deciding to vote Green, Lib Dem or Binface. If the votes are split then the Tory can win on a low vote.
When the Tories are 20% behind in the polls, in a midterm election?
The Labour vote could split six ways, the Tories would still lose.
Midterm was at least 12 months ago!
Yeah, we're in swingback territory now (albeit there's no sign in the opinion polls. Yet)
I don’t think Hall has won. But I don’t think it’s inconceivable that she’s run Khan close.
Let us not forget that Khan, rightly or wrongly, is one of the more divisive politicians in the UK at the moment. Yes, the Labour brand is doing well, but Khan has 8 years as mayor and a lot of history to be judged on.
Add in differential turnout and a complacency in the Labour vote and you can easily see a margin of below 10%. Personally I think a margin of just under 5%, but that’s my sticking-my-neck out, prepared to eat humble pie prediction.
I don’t think Hall has won. But I don’t think it’s inconceivable that she’s run Khan close.
Let us not forget that Khan, rightly or wrongly, is one of the more divisive politicians in the UK at the moment. Yes, the Labour brand is doing well, but Khan has 8 years as mayor and a lot of history to be judged on.
Add in differential turnout and a complacency in the Labour vote and you can easily see a margin of below 10%. Personally I think a margin of just under 5%, but that’s my sticking-my-neck out, prepared to eat humble pie prediction.
Well Khan's margin was only 4.7% last time on 1st prefs, and politicians don't usually become more popular over time.
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.
Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.
Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.
Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.
Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.
Well done nonetheless.
Has she called Hall’s win?
Have you?
I mean, I have Hall at 31. So I take £310 off a tenner bet. That will buy a good dinner.
You can also get 19 on Hall, right now.
Which is free money, right?
I'm taking Rabbit's word for it. If Khan loses that will be a seismic event, particularly in the light of Hall's catastrophic campaign. Nonetheless haven't I been warning you that your Labour landslide could be no more than the disappointment of 1992.
I’m taking the opposite line to you MexPete! I’m saying neither she has definitely won, nor would it be a seismic event.
Enough of your usual nonsense, off to bed with you.
I’m simply explaining how exactly it would happen, and polls to be wrong.
And as I said, it’s not just one reason media love as a headline. Though would mean Gaza is proving more of an issue for Labour than has been thought.
Polls to be wrong? One firm with 20+ lead another of just 10, they can’t all be right anyway. The only bit they could be missing is Lab voters staying for variety of reasons, and probably angry at themselves Saturday afternoon!
It would be sufficiently seismic to still be available at 18 on BX. You are as bad as each other.
Put up, or shut up.
She’s not going to win. It was a mischievous rumour. Trump Hall sums her up - 2 PMQ questions and the Guardian report yesterday about her dealings with vile WhatsApps needs to wake everyone up, Tory as well as Labour.
Khans winning margin could be in single figures, if both camps hyping it like this, but likely teens we both agree?
But. Everything I explained about what works against Khan and for Hall is true. Up and down the country councillors and councils and like Khan Mayors have made tough culture changing decisions for their communities, and will lose because of it, and not all those opponents they lose to will be worthy of the win.
Do a few T R U S S ‘s and calm yourself down. Don’t let mischief mex get to you.
I don’t think Hall has won. But I don’t think it’s inconceivable that she’s run Khan close.
Let us not forget that Khan, rightly or wrongly, is one of the more divisive politicians in the UK at the moment. Yes, the Labour brand is doing well, but Khan has 8 years as mayor and a lot of history to be judged on.
Add in differential turnout and a complacency in the Labour vote and you can easily see a margin of below 10%. Personally I think a margin of just under 5%, but that’s my sticking-my-neck out, prepared to eat humble pie prediction.
Well Khan's margin was only 4.7% last time on 1st prefs, and politicians don't usually become more popular over time.
I don’t think Hall has won. But I don’t think it’s inconceivable that she’s run Khan close.
Let us not forget that Khan, rightly or wrongly, is one of the more divisive politicians in the UK at the moment. Yes, the Labour brand is doing well, but Khan has 8 years as mayor and a lot of history to be judged on.
Add in differential turnout and a complacency in the Labour vote and you can easily see a margin of below 10%. Personally I think a margin of just under 5%, but that’s my sticking-my-neck out, prepared to eat humble pie prediction.
Well Khan's margin was only 4.7% last time on 1st prefs, and politicians don't usually become more popular over time.
But the switch to first past the post has likely helped Khan in that regard.
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
It is surely unthinkable that the Tories could win London when 20 odd points behind in the national polls. I’d say it would be the biggest political upset in British history
No London mayor has stayed in office for longer than 8 years before. Perhaps a lot of voters think 2 terms is enough, regardless of who it is.
I agree that would be one of the reasons for the loss, the second would be how motorists outside inner cities don’t like Labour’s war on motorists, and the third would be Starmer’s position on Gaza suppressing Labour vote.
Suppressed Labour vote would be hard for polls to pick up, if they presumably give list of candidates but don’t capture enthusiasm to vote.
Another reason for Khan’s loss would have to be given to the effectiveness of Hall’s campaign, she has had Khan spending time ruling things out he claims he never intends to do, but just mere talk of these things was motivating voters against him.
Mostly though it would be outer London strongly motivated against 3rd term Khan, inner London thinking it was safely sown up without them.
Also an element of not knowing much about Hall, if they had they might have been more tempted out to vote against her.
Well done for correctly calling Hall's win, but a good candidate? She has won despite being utterly reprehensible. A truly dreadful candidate who rode her luck.
Well done nonetheless.
Hang on, you make it sound like a foregone conclusion.
It’s an annoying tick of his. I think it’s just attention-seeking.
I think MP was being sarcastic . I don’t think he was being serious .
Is he also being sarcastic every night when he bangs on about Sunak winning the General Election on 23 January?
Yes.
Every court has a fool.
Calm down luv 😆
Your card is marked Rabbit!
All rabbits cards are marked. Lord Frith saw to that 😌
I don’t think Hall has won. But I don’t think it’s inconceivable that she’s run Khan close.
Let us not forget that Khan, rightly or wrongly, is one of the more divisive politicians in the UK at the moment. Yes, the Labour brand is doing well, but Khan has 8 years as mayor and a lot of history to be judged on.
Add in differential turnout and a complacency in the Labour vote and you can easily see a margin of below 10%. Personally I think a margin of just under 5%, but that’s my sticking-my-neck out, prepared to eat humble pie prediction.
My feeling is that the forced choice enforced by the voting system change will help support Khan's vote. I'd expect the Labour GLA candidates to underperform, particularly in inner london.
Does anyone know if the londonelects site will show live progress during the count? I know they did in previous years, but this time they're counting by hand...
478 council seats lost could be worse for the Conservatives. At this stage of the local elections cycle the Tories lost 607 council seats in 1996 for instance and Labour lost almost as many, 464, in 2004
Boundary Commission has however reduced seat numbers since the 1990's.
Is it? Shows me that Reform voters are willing to fuck the Conservatives.
CCHQ should be terrified that they no longer benefit from LLG splitting the vote now that big Nige is gonna take half their voters in all those ageing, WWC, homeowning constituencies.
What kind of pervy neo-spin is this, the idea that Hall has won? She obviously hasn't won. The interesting question is whether or not the local election results will lead to the downfall of the prime minister.
They haven't employed the muppets Ed Miliband used in 2015 that were telling him he was winning, all while the Tories were even further ahead than anybody thought.
The penny didn't even drop when Paddy Power paid out reallt early.
Is it? Shows me that Reform voters are willing to fuck the Conservatives.
CCHQ should be terrified that they no longer benefit from LLG splitting the vote now that big Nige is gonna take half their voters in all those ageing, WWC, homeowning constituencies.
There will be regional differences. The idea of binning HS2, replacing it with Network North, talking about massive infrastructure boosts for the north and then on inspection finding it included budgets for pothole maintenance in London has not proved quite as popular as the Tories would have liked.
Well, as the PB trope goes, Mandy Rice Davies applies doesn't it?
(Back up to 18 on BF by the way. If she wins, I'm quitting betting forever).
MRD doesn't apply, though. It's not normal for a party that's had its arse whupped to say at ~1am that it thinks it's won. I'm torn between believing this is just forgettable crap talk and thinking it's an effort at clever psywar. It's probably the former. That's a pity, because after this bottle of wine I would appreciate an effort at clever psywar.
Well, as the PB trope goes, Mandy Rice Davies applies doesn't it?
(Back up to 18 on BF by the way. If she wins, I'm quitting betting forever).
MRD doesn't apply, though. It's not normal for a party that's had its arse whupped to say at ~1am that it thinks it's won. I'm torn between believing this is just forgettable crap talk and thinking it's an effort at clever psywar. It's probably the former. That's a pity, because after this bottle of wine I would appreciate an effort at clever psywar.
Well, as the PB trope goes, Mandy Rice Davies applies doesn't it?
(Back up to 18 on BF by the way. If she wins, I'm quitting betting forever).
MRD doesn't apply, though. It's not normal for a party that's had its arse whupped to say at ~1am that it's won. I'm torn between believing this is just forgettable crap talk and thinking it's an effort at clever psywar. It's probably the former.
It'd be a proper earthquake if true.
The Hall campaign has been almost entirely focussed on Facebook and micro-targetted online advertising. The traditional media have been almost entirely ignored, she has no website to speak of, and only got round to publishing a manifesto 3-4 days ago.
So, if she does win (or even come close), then we should expect the GE campaign to be radically different to anything we've seen before - with cash being hosed at Meta to the exclusion of almost everything else.
LibDems posted multiple courses of YIMBY propaganda through my letterbox, so voted them for Mayor and my AM (who is similarly impressive).
However the only result I care about is W.Mids. I've known Street for a majority of my life and he is exactly the sort of person our politics needs. Fingers crossed for him.
Is it? Shows me that Reform voters are willing to fuck the Conservatives.
CCHQ should be terrified that they no longer benefit from LLG splitting the vote now that big Nige is gonna take half their voters in all those ageing, WWC, homeowning constituencies.
There will be regional differences. The idea of binning HS2, replacing it with Network North, talking about massive infrastructure boosts for the north and then on inspection finding it included budgets for pothole maintenance in London has not proved quite as popular as the Tories would have liked.
Sure but if replicated... Reform have become viable. The Conservatives no longer have such an efficient voting block. And when they're at such polling lows we'll see FPTP at its most maleficent.
Can we say Canada when Sunak is forced to go in January?
Well, as the PB trope goes, Mandy Rice Davies applies doesn't it?
(Back up to 18 on BF by the way. If she wins, I'm quitting betting forever).
MRD doesn't apply, though. It's not normal for a party that's had its arse whupped to say at ~1am that it's won. I'm torn between believing this is just forgettable crap talk and thinking it's an effort at clever psywar. It's probably the former.
It'd be a proper earthquake if true.
The Hall campaign has been almost entirely focussed on Facebook and micro-targetted online advertising. The traditional media have been almost entirely ignored, she has no website to speak of, and only got round to publishing a manifesto 3-4 days ago.
So, if she does win (or even come close), then we should expect the GE campaign to be radically different to anything we've seen before - with cash being hosed at Meta to the exclusion of almost everything else.
Is it? Shows me that Reform voters are willing to fuck the Conservatives.
CCHQ should be terrified that they no longer benefit from LLG splitting the vote now that big Nige is gonna take half their voters in all those ageing, WWC, homeowning constituencies.
Half of the former LD voters there making damned sure the Tory doesn't win.
What is a par score for Labour in the Blackpool South by-election. Opinion polls showing 15% swings on average across the country? 15% swing the par score?
"Labour gain Hartlepool" won't butter any parsnips if they lose in London.
Labour losing London in 2023 would be like the Tories losing Henley in1997. Ain't going to happen. However just 28 years seperate Henley between being dies in the wool tory and being an almost certain LD gain...
BBC election show: one moment they say Blackpool South has almost finished counting, the next they report that counting hasn't even started.
Well, the pictures showed counters sitting idly at their tables. Not an unreasonable inference, but in fact presumably ballot boxes hadn’t even reached them yet.
"Labour gain Hartlepool" won't butter any parsnips if they lose in London.
Agreed. If Labour do lose London then it’s down to the voting system change. Much depends on whether Reform get the 6% with other pollsters or just 2% in Savanta .
kle4 said: "I still maintain some offences should result in permanent punishment. Being found guilty of corrupt electoral practices should mean you never get another opportunity to corrupt an election (at least for yourself) ever again."
As I recall the state of Maryland had (and may still have, for all I know) a law just like that.
Is it? Shows me that Reform voters are willing to fuck the Conservatives.
CCHQ should be terrified that they no longer benefit from LLG splitting the vote now that big Nige is gonna take half their voters in all those ageing, WWC, homeowning constituencies.
There will be regional differences. The idea of binning HS2, replacing it with Network North, talking about massive infrastructure boosts for the north and then on inspection finding it included budgets for pothole maintenance in London has not proved quite as popular as the Tories would have liked.
Sure but if replicated... Reform have become viable. The Conservatives no longer have such an efficient voting block. And when they're at such polling lows we'll see FPTP at its most maleficent.
Can we say Canada when Sunak is forced to go in January?
Nah. Most of these Con > Ref switchers will go back to Con at the general election, IMO.
Well, as the PB trope goes, Mandy Rice Davies applies doesn't it?
(Back up to 18 on BF by the way. If she wins, I'm quitting betting forever).
MRD doesn't apply, though. It's not normal for a party that's had its arse whupped to say at ~1am that it's won. I'm torn between believing this is just forgettable crap talk and thinking it's an effort at clever psywar. It's probably the former.
It'd be a proper earthquake if true.
The Hall campaign has been almost entirely focussed on Facebook and micro-targetted online advertising. The traditional media have been almost entirely ignored, she has no website to speak of, and only got round to publishing a manifesto 3-4 days ago.
So, if she does win (or even come close), then we should expect the GE campaign to be radically different to anything we've seen before - with cash being hosed at Meta to the exclusion of almost everything else.
Looking at the wards where there is some Conservative strength in Sunderland (there are a few) like St. Anne’s, or Barne, Washington South, Reform are finishing far behind them
BBC election show: one moment they say Blackpool South has almost finished counting, the next they report that counting hasn't even started.
Well, the pictures showed counters sitting idly at their tables. Not an unreasonable inference, but in fact presumably ballot boxes hadn’t even reached them yet.
I think they check them first before counting. Wheat from the chaff.
I know the polls have closed now but according to the likes of @wesstreeting - who by the way I used to think reasonably of - I’m the type of person who by voting for Susan Hall secretly has a white pointy hood in my cupboard. It’s pretty low and disgraceful politics really 1/2 12:35 AM · May 3, 2024
James McDermott-Hill @JamesMDH · 36m It generally debases our political discourse to talk like this and reduces the ability for people with different opinions to talk to each other. Wes may bristle at this but what he’s doing is no different to what Trump is saying about his opponents across the pond. Do better 2/2."
If voters anywhere on earth hates the ongoing migrant crisis more than UK, it’s Ireland. How tempted will the Republics politicians be by this offer?
Why would they be tempted to join a UK scheme that is almost certain not to work rather than an EU one that might?
Yours is a rational response. But a General Election is coming there too - does the fob the voters off option, or take the rational route, cost you more votes?
Comments
Sadly no more.
(in Poundland)
Enough of your usual nonsense, off to bed with you.
I’m simply explaining how exactly it would happen, and polls to be wrong.
And as I said, it’s not just one reason media love as a headline. Though would mean Gaza is proving more of an issue for Labour than has been thought.
Polls to be wrong? One firm with 20+ lead another of just 10, they can’t all be right anyway. The only bit they could be missing is Lab voters staying for variety of reasons, and probably angry at themselves Saturday afternoon!
Good night.
I think the Tory will win but we are back in spoiled ballot territory again I'm afraid.
Good night .
Put up, or shut up.
Every court has a fool.
Calm down luv 😆
Good morning.
https://www.thepinknews.com/2024/05/02/george-galloway/
Let us not forget that Khan, rightly or wrongly, is one of the more divisive politicians in the UK at the moment. Yes, the Labour brand is doing well, but Khan has 8 years as mayor and a lot of history to be judged on.
Add in differential turnout and a complacency in the Labour vote and you can easily see a margin of below 10%. Personally I think a margin of just under 5%, but that’s my sticking-my-neck out, prepared to eat humble pie prediction.
300 seat Majority for Starmer nailed on now
Copt Hill (Sunderland):
LAB: 59.8% (+16.9)
CON: 13.2% (-13.7)
RFM: 12.3% (New)
GRN: 10.2% (+1.9)
LDM: 4.4% (-4.4)
No UKIP (-13.0) as previous.
Labour HOLD.
Changes w/ 2021.
Seems a bit meh.
The Tory vote is collapsing in Sunderland.
Khans winning margin could be in single figures, if both camps hyping it like this, but likely teens we both agree?
But. Everything I explained about what works against Khan and for Hall is true. Up and down the country councillors and councils and like Khan Mayors have made tough culture changing decisions for their communities, and will lose because of it, and not all those opponents they lose to will be worthy of the win.
Do a few T R U S S ‘s and calm yourself down. Don’t let mischief mex get to you.
@PolitlcsUK
Susan Hall's core inner circle also believe she has won"
https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1786154035944259826
Does anyone know if the londonelects site will show live progress during the count? I know they did in previous years, but this time they're counting by hand...
CCHQ should be terrified that they no longer benefit from LLG splitting the vote now that big Nige is gonna take half their voters in all those ageing, WWC, homeowning constituencies.
The interesting question is whether or not the local election results will lead to the downfall of the prime minister.
The penny didn't even drop when Paddy Power paid out reallt early.
(Back up to 18 on BF by the way. If she wins, I'm quitting betting forever).
Washington West (Sunderland) council election result:
LAB: 51.6% (-0.2)
REF: 18.0% (+18.0)
CON: 14.4% (-18.0)
GRN: 8.2% (-0.4)
LDEM: 7.8% (+2.9)
Labour HOLD.
Good night all.
Are you trying to pull a Mexican? Are you Mexicaning us?
Do things go quicker around her head and pay per millimetre around her navel?
The Hall campaign has been almost entirely focussed on Facebook and micro-targetted online advertising. The traditional media have been almost entirely ignored, she has no website to speak of, and only got round to publishing a manifesto 3-4 days ago.
So, if she does win (or even come close), then we should expect the GE campaign to be radically different to anything we've seen before - with cash being hosed at Meta to the exclusion of almost everything else.
However the only result I care about is W.Mids. I've known Street for a majority of my life and he is exactly the sort of person our politics needs. Fingers crossed for him.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/02/rishi-sunak-offers-ireland-opportunity-join-rwanda-scheme/
Can we say Canada when Sunak is forced to go in January?
Reform are picking up some support in wards where UKIP did well, but falling far short of that party.
As I recall the state of Maryland had (and may still have, for all I know) a law just like that.
Con will survive - As they always do.
"James McDermott-Hill
@JamesMDH
I know the polls have closed now but according to the likes of
@wesstreeting
- who by the way I used to think reasonably of - I’m the type of person who by voting for Susan Hall secretly has a white pointy hood in my cupboard. It’s pretty low and disgraceful politics really 1/2
12:35 AM · May 3, 2024
James McDermott-Hill
@JamesMDH
·
36m
It generally debases our political discourse to talk like this and reduces the ability for people with different opinions to talk to each other. Wes may bristle at this but what he’s doing is no different to what Trump is saying about his opponents across the pond. Do better 2/2."
https://twitter.com/JamesMDH/status/1786177661762437527
Lab -0.4
Con -3
LD -2
Grn +2
Ref +4
Ind -1