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MRP benchmarks and assorted thoughts – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,172
    MikeL said:

    BBC KEY WARDS - CHANGE SINCE 2023 (LAST YEAR!):

    Lab -0.4
    Con -3
    LD -2
    Grn +2
    Ref +4
    Ind -1

    Well that's... interesting.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147
    slade said:

    Hans Christian Andersen stood for the Lib Dems in Newcastle. He did not win.

    Bet he’s got a story to tell.
  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,481
    MJW said:

    Andy_JS said:
    If voters anywhere on earth hates the ongoing migrant crisis more than UK, it’s Ireland. How tempted will the Republics politicians be by this offer?
    Why would they be tempted to join a UK scheme that is almost certain not to work rather than an EU one that might?
    One of the key inputs to the EU resettlement scheme formula is GDP. Ireland has a vastly exaggerated GDP. They will end up taking more than is probably fair.
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,178
    MikeL said:

    BBC KEY WARDS - CHANGE SINCE 2023 (LAST YEAR!):

    Lab -0.4
    Con -3
    LD -2
    Grn +2
    Ref +4
    Ind -1

    Not great news for anyone other than Refuk, but I think the Lib Dems would be the most disappointed if things go on like that. This year's mix of council areas isn't great for them, but given what's happened over the past year, they ought to be doing better than this.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147
    MikeL said:

    slade said:

    Con hold in Bournemouth.

    Con hold in Broxtowe too.
    Broxbourne, surely?
    Yes, Broxbourne!
    That wasn’t me. It was the predictive text thing.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,452
    edited May 3
    Starmers stupid comments re Gaza on LBC coming back to haunt him .

    Later in the night there are plenty of further wards with a high Muslim percentage of voters.
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,178
    nico679 said:

    Starmers stupid comments re Gaza on LBC coming back to haunt him .

    Later in the night there are plenty of further wards with a high Muslim percentage of voters.

    The most disappointing thing about that is that Starmer is usually pretty good at thinking on his feet, so it lends credence to the suggestion that he simply misheard the question.

    But he said the wrong thing, didn't row back quickly enough, and the damage has been done. As a result, I'd expect Greens and independents to gain more than they otherwise would have, maybe also Lib Dems in the GLA elections.

    I fear that the Labour leadership will react by becoming even more cautious, when they actually need to start being a bit braver.
  • Options
    sladeslade Posts: 1,962
    Lib Dem gain from Lab in Newcastle.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147
    Sean_F said:

    For the umpteenth time, Broxbourne returns 9 Con to 1 Lab

    Claims Tories will finish minus 500 from only 970 defences are beginning to look very fanciful already.

    Some of the celebrity Psephologists set the Tory par score too high I think. Minus 400 Net might be a pretty bad result, but some of the celebrity psephologists who tend to write the headlines for the TV companies, won’t call it the bad result. Tories will certainly spin minus 390 as good result.

    But beware the Blue rinse out. We have been here before where the red wall rush is not so bad headlines for Tories at dawn, but by dusk the blue wall is a mess.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,414
    edited May 3
    Very interesting comments from Faisal Islam:

    Downing Street looking at polling which has just shown that people's expectations of their own financial position over the next 12 months has just gone positive for the first time for ages.

    Plus figures expected to show out of recession in next few days.

    They think it all points to people feeling more positive in the autumn.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147
    nico679 said:

    Starmers stupid comments re Gaza on LBC coming back to haunt him .

    Later in the night there are plenty of further wards with a high Muslim percentage of voters.

    And of course, London.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147
    AlsoLei said:

    MikeL said:

    BBC KEY WARDS - CHANGE SINCE 2023 (LAST YEAR!):

    Lab -0.4
    Con -3
    LD -2
    Grn +2
    Ref +4
    Ind -1

    Not great news for anyone other than Refuk, but I think the Lib Dems would be the most disappointed if things go on like that. This year's mix of council areas isn't great for them, but given what's happened over the past year, they ought to be doing better than this.
    Early days. Blue Wall tends to be Friday afternoons.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,414

    Sean_F said:

    For the umpteenth time, Broxbourne returns 9 Con to 1 Lab

    Claims Tories will finish minus 500 from only 970 defences are beginning to look very fanciful already.

    Some of the celebrity Psephologists set the Tory par score too high I think. Minus 400 Net might be a pretty bad result, but some of the celebrity psephologists who tend to write the headlines for the TV companies, won’t call it the bad result. Tories will certainly spin minus 390 as good result.

    But beware the Blue rinse out. We have been here before where the red wall rush is not so bad headlines for Tories at dawn, but by dusk the blue wall is a mess.
    Don't be so sure.

    Times Radio says some pollsters thinking it will be over 500 Con losses.

    So far 9/24 lost.
  • Options
    sladeslade Posts: 1,962
    Another LibDem gain in Newcastle and the Greens gain Byker.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,452

    nico679 said:

    Starmers stupid comments re Gaza on LBC coming back to haunt him .

    Later in the night there are plenty of further wards with a high Muslim percentage of voters.

    And of course, London.
    Khan came out early for a ceasefire and the Muslim population will back him especially as he’s up against Hall .
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,403

    AlsoLei said:

    MikeL said:

    BBC KEY WARDS - CHANGE SINCE 2023 (LAST YEAR!):

    Lab -0.4
    Con -3
    LD -2
    Grn +2
    Ref +4
    Ind -1

    Not great news for anyone other than Refuk, but I think the Lib Dems would be the most disappointed if things go on like that. This year's mix of council areas isn't great for them, but given what's happened over the past year, they ought to be doing better than this.
    Early days. Blue Wall tends to be Friday afternoons.
    For all the Reform ramping, the Conservatives won 3 seats in Sunderland, and Reform lost their sole one.

    Reform likely cost the Conservatives one seat.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147
    Sean_F said:

    AlsoLei said:

    MikeL said:

    BBC KEY WARDS - CHANGE SINCE 2023 (LAST YEAR!):

    Lab -0.4
    Con -3
    LD -2
    Grn +2
    Ref +4
    Ind -1

    Not great news for anyone other than Refuk, but I think the Lib Dems would be the most disappointed if things go on like that. This year's mix of council areas isn't great for them, but given what's happened over the past year, they ought to be doing better than this.
    Early days. Blue Wall tends to be Friday afternoons.
    For all the Reform ramping, the Conservatives won 3 seats in Sunderland, and Reform lost their sole one.

    Reform likely cost the Conservatives one seat.
    And Reform fielded a full slate too.
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,178
    MikeL said:

    Very interesting comments from Faisal Islam:

    Downing Street looking at polling which has just shown that people's expectations of their own financial position over the next 12 months has just gone positive for the first time for ages.

    Plus figures expected to show out of recession in next few days.

    They think it all points to people feeling more positive in the autumn.

    On the other hand: mortgage rates on the way up again, record rises in rents, continued small boats arrivals, effect of the Albania returns deal wearing off, people being annoyed that "lower inflation" doesn't result in lower prices.

    The GE should have been held yesterday.
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 985
    South Tyneside, Labour down 8 seats, Independents up 8 seats, what's going on there?
  • Options
    MJWMJW Posts: 1,527
    MikeL said:

    Very intersting comments from Faisal Islam:

    Downing Street looking at polling which has recently shown theat people's expectations of their own financial position over next 12 months has just gone positive for first time for ages.

    Plus figures expected to show out of recession in next few days.

    They think it all points to people feeling more positive in the autumn.

    3 points on that - firstly, positive from what? People have been absolutely despairing - an uptick is lovely, but really doesn't solve the "Are you better off than 5/10/14 years ago?" question.

    Secondly 1997. Paradoxically, an uptick in optimism may even help Labour - as it did then, as people felt Labour promises might be affordable. This does depend on Labour getting its manifesto/big promises right though and in the goldilocks zone of ambitious but not ludicrous.

    Thirdly, all is probably moot if interest rates don't come down. Every few months people get a new mortgage shock as more come off fixed rates. There's not much use saying we've turned the corner if another tranche of people have more money coming out of their account.

    That's not to say it's impossible an economic upturn can't save the Conservatives from disaster. It might save them from oblivion. But that's not the game. But it would have to happen very quickly and be very significant. Looking at the world, that seems unlikely tbqh.

    Finally, people rarely feel more positive in the autmn. SAD is a thing. Except Spurs fans. Who dream of a good season before it collapses around Christmas.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,403
    DM_Andy said:

    South Tyneside, Labour down 8 seats, Independents up 8 seats, what's going on there?

    I’ve heard the authority is very badly run.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,158
    DM_Andy said:

    South Tyneside, Labour down 8 seats, Independents up 8 seats, what's going on there?

    Time and tyne wait for no one?
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,452
    DM_Andy said:

    South Tyneside, Labour down 8 seats, Independents up 8 seats, what's going on there?

    Those areas have a high proportion of Muslim voters and are voting Green/Lib Dem .
  • Options
    sladeslade Posts: 1,962
    Now a Lab gain from Lib Dems in Newcastle.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147
    MikeL said:

    Sean_F said:

    For the umpteenth time, Broxbourne returns 9 Con to 1 Lab

    Claims Tories will finish minus 500 from only 970 defences are beginning to look very fanciful already.

    Some of the celebrity Psephologists set the Tory par score too high I think. Minus 400 Net might be a pretty bad result, but some of the celebrity psephologists who tend to write the headlines for the TV companies, won’t call it the bad result. Tories will certainly spin minus 390 as good result.

    But beware the Blue rinse out. We have been here before where the red wall rush is not so bad headlines for Tories at dawn, but by dusk the blue wall is a mess.
    Don't be so sure.

    Times Radio says some pollsters thinking it will be over 500 Con losses.

    So far 9/24 lost.
    It won’t be over 500 based on these early results. Might not even make 400 losses.

    Why was 500 set as the benchmark anyway, just because it’s a handy milestone number? Firstly it means they get away with calling 390 losses a good result, secondly, if 500 has some relation to where Tories are in National Opinion polls, and that drove the expectation, the national opinions polls gives a Reform option that’s not on many ballots, to the benefit of the conservatives.

    The bar at these locals has been set too low for the Tories to claim success.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147
    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Starmers stupid comments re Gaza on LBC coming back to haunt him .

    Later in the night there are plenty of further wards with a high Muslim percentage of voters.

    And of course, London.
    Khan came out early for a ceasefire and the Muslim population will back him especially as he’s up against Hall .
    “especially as he’s up against Hall”

    How well did many of the voters really know Hall, for it to become a motivational factor in their voting?
  • Options
    MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,522
    Sean_F said:

    AlsoLei said:

    MikeL said:

    BBC KEY WARDS - CHANGE SINCE 2023 (LAST YEAR!):

    Lab -0.4
    Con -3
    LD -2
    Grn +2
    Ref +4
    Ind -1

    Not great news for anyone other than Refuk, but I think the Lib Dems would be the most disappointed if things go on like that. This year's mix of council areas isn't great for them, but given what's happened over the past year, they ought to be doing better than this.
    Early days. Blue Wall tends to be Friday afternoons.
    For all the Reform ramping, the Conservatives won 3 seats in Sunderland, and Reform lost their sole one.

    Reform likely cost the Conservatives one seat.
    Say Reform take second in Blackpool?
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,414
    MJW said:

    MikeL said:

    Very intersting comments from Faisal Islam:

    Downing Street looking at polling which has recently shown theat people's expectations of their own financial position over next 12 months has just gone positive for first time for ages.

    Plus figures expected to show out of recession in next few days.

    They think it all points to people feeling more positive in the autumn.

    3 points on that - firstly, positive from what? People have been absolutely despairing - an uptick is lovely, but really doesn't solve the "Are you better off than 5/10/14 years ago?" question.

    Secondly 1997. Paradoxically, an uptick in optimism may even help Labour - as it did then, as people felt Labour promises might be affordable. This does depend on Labour getting its manifesto/big promises right though and in the goldilocks zone of ambitious but not ludicrous.

    Thirdly, all is probably moot if interest rates don't come down. Every few months people get a new mortgage shock as more come off fixed rates. There's not much use saying we've turned the corner if another tranche of people have more money coming out of their account.

    That's not to say it's impossible an economic upturn can't save the Conservatives from disaster. It might save them from oblivion. But that's not the game. But it would have to happen very quickly and be very significant. Looking at the world, that seems unlikely tbqh.

    Finally, people rarely feel more positive in the autmn. SAD is a thing. Except Spurs fans. Who dream of a good season before it collapses around Christmas.
    Yes, all good points,

    But just to be clear, question was "Do you expect to be better off or worse off over next 12 months?"

    For first time for ages, more are saying better off than worse off.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147

    slade said:

    Con hold in Bournemouth.

    Con hold in Broxtowe too.
    Broxbourne, surely?
    You know where that one is then Nick? Don’t need to phone a friend for directions?
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,403
    nico679 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    South Tyneside, Labour down 8 seats, Independents up 8 seats, what's going on there?

    Those areas have a high proportion of Muslim voters and are voting Green/Lib Dem .
    South Tyneside has very few Muslims.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,403

    Sean_F said:

    AlsoLei said:

    MikeL said:

    BBC KEY WARDS - CHANGE SINCE 2023 (LAST YEAR!):

    Lab -0.4
    Con -3
    LD -2
    Grn +2
    Ref +4
    Ind -1

    Not great news for anyone other than Refuk, but I think the Lib Dems would be the most disappointed if things go on like that. This year's mix of council areas isn't great for them, but given what's happened over the past year, they ought to be doing better than this.
    Early days. Blue Wall tends to be Friday afternoons.
    For all the Reform ramping, the Conservatives won 3 seats in Sunderland, and Reform lost their sole one.

    Reform likely cost the Conservatives one seat.
    Say Reform take second in Blackpool?
    It depends what the vote shares are.
  • Options
    sladeslade Posts: 1,962
    Newcastle is bonkers. The Conservatives have just won a seat from the Lib Dems.
  • Options
    legatuslegatus Posts: 126
    Sean_F said:

    nico679 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    South Tyneside, Labour down 8 seats, Independents up 8 seats, what's going on there?

    Those areas have a high proportion of Muslim voters and are voting Green/Lib Dem .
    South Tyneside has very few Muslims.
    Bin Strikes apparently a big factor there.
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 985
    nico679 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    South Tyneside, Labour down 8 seats, Independents up 8 seats, what's going on there?

    Those areas have a high proportion of Muslim voters and are voting Green/Lib Dem .
    I'm not buying that as a complete answer, for example Hebburn North (57% Christian, 41% no religion, 1% Muslim).

    Labour 860 (-11.7% on 2021)
    Independent 845 (+25.7%)
    Green 231 (+2.5%)
    No Conservative candidate (16.4% in 2021)

    The independent appears to be a genuine non-partisan and has stood in all local elections since 2019. Seems more like the lack of Tory candidates (they have only stood in 4 wards in South Tyneside) has allowed voters the freedom to vote against Labour too with no risk of allowing a Tory to win.

  • Options
    MJWMJW Posts: 1,527

    Sean_F said:

    For the umpteenth time, Broxbourne returns 9 Con to 1 Lab

    Claims Tories will finish minus 500 from only 970 defences are beginning to look very fanciful already.

    Some of the celebrity Psephologists set the Tory par score too high I think. Minus 400 Net might be a pretty bad result, but some of the celebrity psephologists who tend to write the headlines for the TV companies, won’t call it the bad result. Tories will certainly spin minus 390 as good result.

    But beware the Blue rinse out. We have been here before where the red wall rush is not so bad headlines for Tories at dawn, but by dusk the blue wall is a mess.
    Most sensible predictions I saw were around 400. They are going to overperform national polling in some places and do catastrophically in others. What's important, probably, is where. I'd look to obvious red wall Labour gains - is it winning enough switchers. And whether places like Surrey commuterland utterly collapse.

    Bizarrely, Surrey is a very interesting place to watch at the moment (full disclosure - Wokingian who went to Godalming college) as it's ground zero of the "people under 65 who used to vote Tory have just stopped and hate them for umpteen reasons" phenomenon. People are incredibly pissed off (notably Woking was a rare Tory stronghold that voted remain, and I'm sure we all know of the council's antics, and its house prices).

    Anyway, if the Tories perform badly but respectably around here - I think we can close off the Canada 93 speculation. If get slaughtered in places that have more golf clubs than football clubs. Then they really could be slaughtered.
  • Options
    legatuslegatus Posts: 126
    The Tories have lost 15 of 34 seats. - but labour has only gained 1 seat after circa 100 declarations.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,452
    legatus said:

    Sean_F said:

    nico679 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    South Tyneside, Labour down 8 seats, Independents up 8 seats, what's going on there?

    Those areas have a high proportion of Muslim voters and are voting Green/Lib Dem .
    South Tyneside has very few Muslims.
    Bin Strikes apparently a big factor there.
    It’s late I must be confusing it with a different area !

    I’m flagging at the moment .
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,403
    slade said:

    Newcastle is bonkers. The Conservatives have just won a seat from the Lib Dems.

    The first Conservative in Newcastle since 1996.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147
    MJW said:

    Sean_F said:

    For the umpteenth time, Broxbourne returns 9 Con to 1 Lab

    Claims Tories will finish minus 500 from only 970 defences are beginning to look very fanciful already.

    Some of the celebrity Psephologists set the Tory par score too high I think. Minus 400 Net might be a pretty bad result, but some of the celebrity psephologists who tend to write the headlines for the TV companies, won’t call it the bad result. Tories will certainly spin minus 390 as good result.

    But beware the Blue rinse out. We have been here before where the red wall rush is not so bad headlines for Tories at dawn, but by dusk the blue wall is a mess.
    Most sensible predictions I saw were around 400. They are going to overperform national polling in some places and do catastrophically in others. What's important, probably, is where. I'd look to obvious red wall Labour gains - is it winning enough switchers. And whether places like Surrey commuterland utterly collapse.

    Bizarrely, Surrey is a very interesting place to watch at the moment (full disclosure - Wokingian who went to Godalming college) as it's ground zero of the "people under 65 who used to vote Tory have just stopped and hate them for umpteen reasons" phenomenon. People are incredibly pissed off (notably Woking was a rare Tory stronghold that voted remain, and I'm sure we all know of the council's antics, and its house prices).

    Anyway, if the Tories perform badly but respectably around here - I think we can close off the Canada 93 speculation. If get slaughtered in places that have more golf clubs than football clubs. Then they really could be slaughtered.
    Good post.

    Tonight hasn’t been great for Labour on the Red Wall yet again, and it’s a pattern now throughout this Parliament, considering mid terms like last year and year before supposed to be difficult for governing party. At the GE I’m beggining to think Labour will fail in some surprising Red Wall targets, but pick up surprise wins in Blue Wall.
  • Options
    MJWMJW Posts: 1,527
    MikeL said:

    MJW said:

    MikeL said:

    Very intersting comments from Faisal Islam:

    Downing Street looking at polling which has recently shown theat people's expectations of their own financial position over next 12 months has just gone positive for first time for ages.

    Plus figures expected to show out of recession in next few days.

    They think it all points to people feeling more positive in the autumn.

    3 points on that - firstly, positive from what? People have been absolutely despairing - an uptick is lovely, but really doesn't solve the "Are you better off than 5/10/14 years ago?" question.

    Secondly 1997. Paradoxically, an uptick in optimism may even help Labour - as it did then, as people felt Labour promises might be affordable. This does depend on Labour getting its manifesto/big promises right though and in the goldilocks zone of ambitious but not ludicrous.

    Thirdly, all is probably moot if interest rates don't come down. Every few months people get a new mortgage shock as more come off fixed rates. There's not much use saying we've turned the corner if another tranche of people have more money coming out of their account.

    That's not to say it's impossible an economic upturn can't save the Conservatives from disaster. It might save them from oblivion. But that's not the game. But it would have to happen very quickly and be very significant. Looking at the world, that seems unlikely tbqh.

    Finally, people rarely feel more positive in the autmn. SAD is a thing. Except Spurs fans. Who dream of a good season before it collapses around Christmas.
    Yes, all good points,

    But just to be clear, question was "Do you expect to be better off or worse off over next 12 months?"

    For first time for ages, more are saying better off than worse off.
    Oh yes. Apologies. I aimed to note that. My point was it doesn't matter. People take a longer view. The economy was on the turn in 2010. It didn't help Gordon Brown. The economy was booming in 97. Didn't help Major. Unless something very drastic - and IMV quite implausible happens - people will remember the absolutely miserable past 18 months over their hopes things might improve.
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,178

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Starmers stupid comments re Gaza on LBC coming back to haunt him .

    Later in the night there are plenty of further wards with a high Muslim percentage of voters.

    And of course, London.
    Khan came out early for a ceasefire and the Muslim population will back him especially as he’s up against Hall .
    “especially as he’s up against Hall”

    How well did many of the voters really know Hall, for it to become a motivational factor in their voting?
    It's a good point - I've not seen much local TV news myself, but hearing from friends who have it sounds like Hall has mostly been talking about housing and crime to the traditional media.

    The ULEZ / racist stuff has been confined to the micro-targetted Facebook campaign - if you're not a boomer or actively follow politics, it's unlikely that you'll have seen it.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,452
    edited May 3
    Hartlepool results coming in now . The Tories have lost 5 seats so far .
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,634
    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Tories take their first seat in Newcastle for 32 years!

    Gosforth (Newcastle-upon-Tyne):

    CON: 33.7% (+6.8)
    LDM: 31.0% (-3.5)
    LAB: 22.9% (-0.9)
    GRN: 8.4% (-1.8)
    NEP: 3.9% (New)

    No IND (-4.7) as previous.

    Conservative GAIN from Lib Dem.
    Changes w/ 2021."

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1786200340452262240
  • Options
    legatuslegatus Posts: 126
    Tories have now lost 26 of 47 seats defended.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147
    edited May 3
    MJW said:

    Sean_F said:

    For the umpteenth time, Broxbourne returns 9 Con to 1 Lab

    Claims Tories will finish minus 500 from only 970 defences are beginning to look very fanciful already.

    Some of the celebrity Psephologists set the Tory par score too high I think. Minus 400 Net might be a pretty bad result, but some of the celebrity psephologists who tend to write the headlines for the TV companies, won’t call it the bad result. Tories will certainly spin minus 390 as good result.

    But beware the Blue rinse out. We have been here before where the red wall rush is not so bad headlines for Tories at dawn, but by dusk the blue wall is a mess.
    Most sensible predictions I saw were around 400. They are going to overperform national polling in some places and do catastrophically in others. What's important, probably, is where. I'd look to obvious red wall Labour gains - is it winning enough switchers. And whether places like Surrey commuterland utterly collapse.

    Bizarrely, Surrey is a very interesting place to watch at the moment (full disclosure - Wokingian who went to Godalming college) as it's ground zero of the "people under 65 who used to vote Tory have just stopped and hate them for umpteen reasons" phenomenon. People are incredibly pissed off (notably Woking was a rare Tory stronghold that voted remain, and I'm sure we all know of the council's antics, and its house prices).

    Anyway, if the Tories perform badly but respectably around here - I think we can close off the Canada 93 speculation. If get slaughtered in places that have more golf clubs than football clubs. Then they really could be slaughtered.
    Delete
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,769
    slade said:

    Hans Christian Andersen stood for the Lib Dems in Newcastle. He did not win.

    Not a fairy tale ending for him then?
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147
    edited May 3

    MJW said:

    Sean_F said:

    For the umpteenth time, Broxbourne returns 9 Con to 1 Lab

    Claims Tories will finish minus 500 from only 970 defences are beginning to look very fanciful already.

    Some of the celebrity Psephologists set the Tory par score too high I think. Minus 400 Net might be a pretty bad result, but some of the celebrity psephologists who tend to write the headlines for the TV companies, won’t call it the bad result. Tories will certainly spin minus 390 as good result.

    But beware the Blue rinse out. We have been here before where the red wall rush is not so bad headlines for Tories at dawn, but by dusk the blue wall is a mess.
    Most sensible predictions I saw were around 400. They are going to overperform national polling in some places and do catastrophically in others. What's important, probably, is where. I'd look to obvious red wall Labour gains - is it winning enough switchers. And whether places like Surrey commuterland utterly collapse.

    Bizarrely, Surrey is a very interesting place to watch at the moment (full disclosure - Wokingian who went to Godalming college) as it's ground zero of the "people under 65 who used to vote Tory have just stopped and hate them for umpteen reasons" phenomenon. People are incredibly pissed off (notably Woking was a rare Tory stronghold that voted remain, and I'm sure we all know of the council's antics, and its house prices).

    Anyway, if the Tories perform badly but respectably around here - I think we can close off the Canada 93 speculation. If get slaughtered in places that have more golf clubs than football clubs. Then they really could be slaughtered.
    There’s going to be interim covid enquiry reportage in summer too. The Post Office and Blood Scandal victims close to electorates heart will need something soon, especially if there’s another fiscal event. Another fiscal event will have to properly fund Sunak’s Defence Spending Commitment and get it through the OBR, something they could have done at the last, defence lite, fiscal event but chose not to. Later in autumn predicted rising energy costs and bad harvest costs will be hitting inflation and food prices.

    It’s not an Autumn election, it’s cash in on summer sunshine of good economic news election, and they knew this months ago.
    Delete
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,629

    Oxford looking messy - gains for the anti-LTN independents look nailed on. Labour should probably regain control though as the Corbynites who left over Gaza aren’t re-standing.

    West Oxfordshire and Cherwell both looking good for the LibDems, but West might fall short of a majority (hard to call) and Cherwell will certainly remain NOC.

    With Oxford, it is not so much LTNs as the poor thinking through of the effects of attempts to eliminate traffic in the centre, combined with poor implementation.

    A personal favourite is the hollowing out of the Covered Market - a tourist attraction, but with real shops. Because of access issues for deliveries (amongst other issues) the shops are going, one by one. But, cry the council, footfall in the Covered Market is up! It is - more and more tea shops, catering to the tourists. But spending is down….
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,452
    Looks like the Tory expectation management is going to hit the buffers re councillors .

  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147
    AlsoLei said:

    MikeL said:

    Very interesting comments from Faisal Islam:

    Downing Street looking at polling which has just shown that people's expectations of their own financial position over the next 12 months has just gone positive for the first time for ages.

    Plus figures expected to show out of recession in next few days.

    They think it all points to people feeling more positive in the autumn.

    On the other hand: mortgage rates on the way up again, record rises in rents, continued small boats arrivals, effect of the Albania returns deal wearing off, people being annoyed that "lower inflation" doesn't result in lower prices.

    The GE should have been held yesterday.
    There’s going to be interim covid enquiry reportage in summer too. The Post Office and Blood Scandal victims close to electorates heart will need something soon, especially if there’s another fiscal event. Another fiscal event will have to properly fund Sunak’s Defence Spending Commitment and get it through the OBR, something they could have done at the last, defence lite, fiscal event but chose not to. Later in autumn predicted rising energy costs and bad harvest costs will be hitting inflation and food prices.

    It’s not an Autumn election, it’s cash in on summer sunshine of good economic news election, and they knew this months ago.
  • Options
    legatuslegatus Posts: 126
    Labour gain Harlepool with a majority of 12 as a result of 8 gains.
  • Options
    MJWMJW Posts: 1,527
    AlsoLei said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Starmers stupid comments re Gaza on LBC coming back to haunt him .

    Later in the night there are plenty of further wards with a high Muslim percentage of voters.

    And of course, London.
    Khan came out early for a ceasefire and the Muslim population will back him especially as he’s up against Hall .
    “especially as he’s up against Hall”

    How well did many of the voters really know Hall, for it to become a motivational factor in their voting?
    It's a good point - I've not seen much local TV news myself, but hearing from friends who have it sounds like Hall has mostly been talking about housing and crime to the traditional media.

    The ULEZ / racist stuff has been confined to the micro-targetted Facebook campaign - if you're not a boomer or actively follow politics, it's unlikely that you'll have seen it.
    Two reasons I fear for Khan.

    1.) He's not got the same inner city enthusiasm as in the past. Not entirely his fault, or even mostly that, given councils block development and licensing, the government stop serious reform of the Met and crap on TfL but it's not a good record of promises and delivery. The Night Czar is a good example. He's employed a pointless PR person to celebrate nightlife when venues keep closing due to councils' behaviour. On a more serious note. There have been endless initiatives to tackle crime while Johnson-era police uselessness and closures continue.

    I'd vote for him if still lived in London in a heartbeat over Hall but others will not turn out.

    2.) Hall has likely been very effective in targeting ULEZ-land. The bits of London that fall within the mayoralty but aren't London but part of the surrounding counties. That was Boris' route to victory against people who were fed up with Livingstone.

    I dunno. But I worry the Labour campaign about Hall's crank views - and she is a crank - won't resonate as much as people blaming the Mayor for stuff that isn't necessarily his fault but is blamed for being ineffective on.
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 985
    A rare Labour/Conservative two horse race

    Belhus (Thurrock)
    Labour 1,072 (+35.2% compared to 2021)
    Conservative 483 (-13.8%)
    No Thurrock Independent candidate (21.4% in 2021)
    Labour GAIN from Conservative
  • Options
    MJWMJW Posts: 1,527

    MJW said:

    Sean_F said:

    For the umpteenth time, Broxbourne returns 9 Con to 1 Lab

    Claims Tories will finish minus 500 from only 970 defences are beginning to look very fanciful already.

    Some of the celebrity Psephologists set the Tory par score too high I think. Minus 400 Net might be a pretty bad result, but some of the celebrity psephologists who tend to write the headlines for the TV companies, won’t call it the bad result. Tories will certainly spin minus 390 as good result.

    But beware the Blue rinse out. We have been here before where the red wall rush is not so bad headlines for Tories at dawn, but by dusk the blue wall is a mess.
    Most sensible predictions I saw were around 400. They are going to overperform national polling in some places and do catastrophically in others. What's important, probably, is where. I'd look to obvious red wall Labour gains - is it winning enough switchers. And whether places like Surrey commuterland utterly collapse.

    Bizarrely, Surrey is a very interesting place to watch at the moment (full disclosure - Wokingian who went to Godalming college) as it's ground zero of the "people under 65 who used to vote Tory have just stopped and hate them for umpteen reasons" phenomenon. People are incredibly pissed off (notably Woking was a rare Tory stronghold that voted remain, and I'm sure we all know of the council's antics, and its house prices).

    Anyway, if the Tories perform badly but respectably around here - I think we can close off the Canada 93 speculation. If get slaughtered in places that have more golf clubs than football clubs. Then they really could be slaughtered.
    Delete
    What's happened? Very prepared to be wrong (I often am).
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,414
    Con now lost 33/56.

    Quite a bit over 50%
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147
    MJW said:

    MJW said:

    Sean_F said:

    For the umpteenth time, Broxbourne returns 9 Con to 1 Lab

    Claims Tories will finish minus 500 from only 970 defences are beginning to look very fanciful already.

    Some of the celebrity Psephologists set the Tory par score too high I think. Minus 400 Net might be a pretty bad result, but some of the celebrity psephologists who tend to write the headlines for the TV companies, won’t call it the bad result. Tories will certainly spin minus 390 as good result.

    But beware the Blue rinse out. We have been here before where the red wall rush is not so bad headlines for Tories at dawn, but by dusk the blue wall is a mess.
    Most sensible predictions I saw were around 400. They are going to overperform national polling in some places and do catastrophically in others. What's important, probably, is where. I'd look to obvious red wall Labour gains - is it winning enough switchers. And whether places like Surrey commuterland utterly collapse.

    Bizarrely, Surrey is a very interesting place to watch at the moment (full disclosure - Wokingian who went to Godalming college) as it's ground zero of the "people under 65 who used to vote Tory have just stopped and hate them for umpteen reasons" phenomenon. People are incredibly pissed off (notably Woking was a rare Tory stronghold that voted remain, and I'm sure we all know of the council's antics, and its house prices).

    Anyway, if the Tories perform badly but respectably around here - I think we can close off the Canada 93 speculation. If get slaughtered in places that have more golf clubs than football clubs. Then they really could be slaughtered.
    Delete
    What's happened? Very prepared to be wrong (I often am).
    It’s not you, it’s me. I gave you the reply below :smile: then I gave you a reply to another post as well,

    I’ve only been here 2 years, I’m sure I will get the hang of it eventually
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147
    DM_Andy said:

    A rare Labour/Conservative two horse race

    Belhus (Thurrock)
    Labour 1,072 (+35.2% compared to 2021)
    Conservative 483 (-13.8%)
    No Thurrock Independent candidate (21.4% in 2021)
    Labour GAIN from Conservative

    The Tory horse pulled up by the look of it
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,158
    What yours truly wants to know is, who(m)'s hynd is getting burned in Hyndburn?

    Note with interest on wiki, that Hyndburn is host a "by-thirds . . . Borough Council local election" which sounds VERY controversial, given current controversy re: gender-bending.
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 985
    First two results in Eastleigh (both in suburban Southampton wards). Both Lib Dem holds, LD +1%, Lab +2%, Green +7% (didn't stand in either in 2021), Con -10%
  • Options
    legatuslegatus Posts: 126
    Labour has gained Thurrock.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147

    What yours truly wants to know is, who(m)'s hynd is getting burned in Hyndburn?

    Note with interest on wiki, that Hyndburn is host a "by-thirds . . . Borough Council local election" which sounds VERY controversial, given current controversy re: gender-bending.

    I really don’t want to be rude or banned or anything, but you are not the most positive example of US legalisation of wackybaccy
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,386
    Lot of drivel on this thread
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147
    MikeL said:

    Con now lost 33/56.

    Quite a bit over 50%

    Are you counting Tory wins as well for a net score?
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,634

    Lot of drivel on this thread

    About Hall winning London?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,769
    edited May 3
    I don't know how up to date the BBC website is, but it's currently showing the Conservatives on 24 councillors, down (net) 40.

    If that were to continue (caveats obviously apply), then they would lose 600 councillors.

    Edit:
    Sorry... now down net 41
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,634

    What yours truly wants to know is, who(m)'s hynd is getting burned in Hyndburn?

    Note with interest on wiki, that Hyndburn is host a "by-thirds . . . Borough Council local election" which sounds VERY controversial, given current controversy re: gender-bending.

    Named after the river.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/River_Hyndburn

    "Meaning of the river name
    The name is from Old English burna "stream" (not Old Norse brunnr 'spring', as with some place names over the boundary in North Yorkshire). The origins of Hynd are uncertain. It could be derived from the Old English hyldre "an elder-tree", or hynd "hind", or the Old Norse/Old English personal name Helþor/Helthor. An early mention of the name can be found in the "Chetham miscellanie", which contains an entry from 1360; "Bounds of Magna (Great) Harwood. Begin at the foot of Northdeyne water at the falling thereof into Hindeburne/Hyndburne water."[6]"
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147
    edited May 3

    Lot of drivel on this thread

    Are you talking in your sleep? You said nite nite 3 hours ago.
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 985
    Conservatives lost North East Lincolnshire to NOC
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,563
    edited May 3
    MikeL said:

    Very interesting comments from Faisal Islam:

    Downing Street looking at polling which has just shown that people's expectations of their own financial position over the next 12 months has just gone positive for the first time for ages.

    Plus figures expected to show out of recession in next few days.

    They think it all points to people feeling more positive in the autumn.

    Will that help?

    Rishi's 5 targets were chosen imo because he thought they would all happen anyway.

    1 halve inflation this year
    2 grow the economy
    3 make sure our national debt is falling
    4 NHS waiting lists will fall
    5 pass new laws to stop small boats, making sure that if you come to this country illegally, you are detained and swiftly removed

    1 Corbyn wouldn't have missed that
    2 Hmmm
    3 Nope
    4 Nope or marginal
    5 Stuffed squirrel

    BBC headline using the word "BRACE", which unfortunately makes me think of 13 year old members of the Mickey Mouse Club. M-I-C K-E-Y M-O-U-S-E, who later turn into Miss Alabama telling us all to fix global warming by opening our car windows and turning the air conditioning on.
  • Options
    MJWMJW Posts: 1,527

    MJW said:

    Sean_F said:

    For the umpteenth time, Broxbourne returns 9 Con to 1 Lab

    Claims Tories will finish minus 500 from only 970 defences are beginning to look very fanciful already.

    Some of the celebrity Psephologists set the Tory par score too high I think. Minus 400 Net might be a pretty bad result, but some of the celebrity psephologists who tend to write the headlines for the TV companies, won’t call it the bad result. Tories will certainly spin minus 390 as good result.

    But beware the Blue rinse out. We have been here before where the red wall rush is not so bad headlines for Tories at dawn, but by dusk the blue wall is a mess.
    Most sensible predictions I saw were around 400. They are going to overperform national polling in some places and do catastrophically in others. What's important, probably, is where. I'd look to obvious red wall Labour gains - is it winning enough switchers. And whether places like Surrey commuterland utterly collapse.

    Bizarrely, Surrey is a very interesting place to watch at the moment (full disclosure - Wokingian who went to Godalming college) as it's ground zero of the "people under 65 who used to vote Tory have just stopped and hate them for umpteen reasons" phenomenon. People are incredibly pissed off (notably Woking was a rare Tory stronghold that voted remain, and I'm sure we all know of the council's antics, and its house prices).

    Anyway, if the Tories perform badly but respectably around here - I think we can close off the Canada 93 speculation. If get slaughtered in places that have more golf clubs than football clubs. Then they really could be slaughtered.
    Good post.

    Tonight hasn’t been great for Labour on the Red Wall yet again, and it’s a pattern now throughout this Parliament, considering mid terms like last year and year before supposed to be difficult for governing party. At the GE I’m beggining to think Labour will fail in some surprising Red Wall targets, but pick up surprise wins in Blue Wall.
    There's an interesting question about whether 2024/25 is Labour's version of Tory 2017 or 2019 on a very small change in its own vote - and what the Tory vote does. They could gain huge swathes of the 'Red Wall' - but not some oddball places that for various reasons are now quite Tory - on a middling swing. And daft places (along with the Lib Dems) down south that are traditionally Tory as sin but now despise their guts and have a sweetspot that delivers a landslide (2019).

    Alternatively, they do a Tory 2017 and miss lots of 'Red Wall' seats by narrow margins and give people like Michael Gove huge scares but they all hang on as Bagshot wine mums decide they like they like their local MP and the idea of the Tories over booting them out. In the same way many Red Wall places gave Labour one last shot in 2017. Just. Even while the Tories narrowed previously unsurmountable majorities hugely.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,414

    MikeL said:

    Con now lost 33/56.

    Quite a bit over 50%

    Are you counting Tory wins as well for a net score?
    Yes.

    And it's now even worse:

    46 net losses out of 71 previously Con seats declared.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,452
    How Starmer must regret that LBC interview.

    It’s costing Labour and could well cost them the West Midlands mayoralty.
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,178
    MJW said:

    AlsoLei said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Starmers stupid comments re Gaza on LBC coming back to haunt him .

    Later in the night there are plenty of further wards with a high Muslim percentage of voters.

    And of course, London.
    Khan came out early for a ceasefire and the Muslim population will back him especially as he’s up against Hall .
    “especially as he’s up against Hall”

    How well did many of the voters really know Hall, for it to become a motivational factor in their voting?
    It's a good point - I've not seen much local TV news myself, but hearing from friends who have it sounds like Hall has mostly been talking about housing and crime to the traditional media.

    The ULEZ / racist stuff has been confined to the micro-targetted Facebook campaign - if you're not a boomer or actively follow politics, it's unlikely that you'll have seen it.
    Two reasons I fear for Khan.

    1.) He's not got the same inner city enthusiasm as in the past. Not entirely his fault, or even mostly that, given councils block development and licensing, the government stop serious reform of the Met and crap on TfL but it's not a good record of promises and delivery. The Night Czar is a good example. He's employed a pointless PR person to celebrate nightlife when venues keep closing due to councils' behaviour. On a more serious note. There have been endless initiatives to tackle crime while Johnson-era police uselessness and closures continue.

    I'd vote for him if still lived in London in a heartbeat over Hall but others will not turn out.

    2.) Hall has likely been very effective in targeting ULEZ-land. The bits of London that fall within the mayoralty but aren't London but part of the surrounding counties. That was Boris' route to victory against people who were fed up with Livingstone.

    I dunno. But I worry the Labour campaign about Hall's crank views - and she is a crank - won't resonate as much as people blaming the Mayor for stuff that isn't necessarily his fault but is blamed for being ineffective on.
    On your first point, I agree entirely. I've heard Khan described as "a mayor for people who catch the bus, rather than those who use the tube". His biggest achievement from his second term has been the Superloop, and who in central london cares about that?

    The Night Czar stuff is a great example of how limited the Mayor's role is outside of transport - Amy Lame has done a decent job of publicising the issues, but the actual problem lies with the councils, the Home Office, and the DCMS. The Mayor should either back off entirely or there should be an all-out campaign with a full-time deputy Mayor rather than single part-time czar.

    Really, London desperately needs more coherent devolution - give the Mayor and GLA full control of the Met, and push responsibility for things like licencing and large-scale planning up to them from the borough councils.
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 985
    Hart stays No Overall Control but Conservatives drop from equal largest party to third.

    Lib Dems 12 (+1 compared to 2023)
    Residents' Association 11 (+1)
    Conservative 9 (-2)
    Independent 1 (+0)
  • Options
    legatuslegatus Posts: 126
    The Tories have now lost 51 of 80 seats defended.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,452
    Blackpool South result not expected until 6 am . Pathetic !
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,172
    legatus said:

    The Tories have now lost 51 of 80 seats defended.

    Turning into a Conservative disaster, as expected.
  • Options
    MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,522
    legatus said:

    Labour has gained Thurrock.

    Harris went to Thurrock on the Guardian's politics weekly cast. Thurrockians seemed deeply unhappy with the Conservatives roleplaying as renewables speculators. Not that putting Labour in will placate the creditors, finding ~400 million from 150 million of revenue seems challenging. Yet the libraries & assorted community assets will still be sold .
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,563
    edited May 3
    AlsoLei said:

    MJW said:

    AlsoLei said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Starmers stupid comments re Gaza on LBC coming back to haunt him .

    Later in the night there are plenty of further wards with a high Muslim percentage of voters.

    And of course, London.
    Khan came out early for a ceasefire and the Muslim population will back him especially as he’s up against Hall .
    “especially as he’s up against Hall”

    How well did many of the voters really know Hall, for it to become a motivational factor in their voting?
    It's a good point - I've not seen much local TV news myself, but hearing from friends who have it sounds like Hall has mostly been talking about housing and crime to the traditional media.

    The ULEZ / racist stuff has been confined to the micro-targetted Facebook campaign - if you're not a boomer or actively follow politics, it's unlikely that you'll have seen it.
    Two reasons I fear for Khan.

    1.) He's not got the same inner city enthusiasm as in the past. Not entirely his fault, or even mostly that, given councils block development and licensing, the government stop serious reform of the Met and crap on TfL but it's not a good record of promises and delivery. The Night Czar is a good example. He's employed a pointless PR person to celebrate nightlife when venues keep closing due to councils' behaviour. On a more serious note. There have been endless initiatives to tackle crime while Johnson-era police uselessness and closures continue.

    I'd vote for him if still lived in London in a heartbeat over Hall but others will not turn out.

    2.) Hall has likely been very effective in targeting ULEZ-land. The bits of London that fall within the mayoralty but aren't London but part of the surrounding counties. That was Boris' route to victory against people who were fed up with Livingstone.

    I dunno. But I worry the Labour campaign about Hall's crank views - and she is a crank - won't resonate as much as people blaming the Mayor for stuff that isn't necessarily his fault but is blamed for being ineffective on.
    On your first point, I agree entirely. I've heard Khan described as "a mayor for people who catch the bus, rather than those who use the tube". His biggest achievement from his second term has been the Superloop, and who in central london cares about that?

    The Night Czar stuff is a great example of how limited the Mayor's role is outside of transport - Amy Lame has done a decent job of publicising the issues, but the actual problem lies with the councils, the Home Office, and the DCMS. The Mayor should either back off entirely or there should be an all-out campaign with a full-time deputy Mayor rather than single part-time czar.

    Really, London desperately needs more coherent devolution - give the Mayor and GLA full control of the Met, and push responsibility for things like licencing and large-scale planning up to them from the borough councils.
    Two points there:

    Central London will vote be Khan-dominated anyway surely, except perhaps for a few bits. Or am I out of touch?

    And full devolution for the Mayor and GLA will only happen under a Labour Government, surely.

    I still think that the best place to live in London, if not filthy rich, is just outside the boundary. I have family who are about 400m into Surrey and it seems to be a good place to be.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,634
    edited May 3
    nico679 said:

    Blackpool South result not expected until 6 am . Pathetic !

    At the last general election it was declared at about 2:15am, and was number 86 out of 650 to be declared.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147
    MJW said:

    MJW said:

    Sean_F said:

    For the umpteenth time, Broxbourne returns 9 Con to 1 Lab

    Claims Tories will finish minus 500 from only 970 defences are beginning to look very fanciful already.

    Some of the celebrity Psephologists set the Tory par score too high I think. Minus 400 Net might be a pretty bad result, but some of the celebrity psephologists who tend to write the headlines for the TV companies, won’t call it the bad result. Tories will certainly spin minus 390 as good result.

    But beware the Blue rinse out. We have been here before where the red wall rush is not so bad headlines for Tories at dawn, but by dusk the blue wall is a mess.
    Most sensible predictions I saw were around 400. They are going to overperform national polling in some places and do catastrophically in others. What's important, probably, is where. I'd look to obvious red wall Labour gains - is it winning enough switchers. And whether places like Surrey commuterland utterly collapse.

    Bizarrely, Surrey is a very interesting place to watch at the moment (full disclosure - Wokingian who went to Godalming college) as it's ground zero of the "people under 65 who used to vote Tory have just stopped and hate them for umpteen reasons" phenomenon. People are incredibly pissed off (notably Woking was a rare Tory stronghold that voted remain, and I'm sure we all know of the council's antics, and its house prices).

    Anyway, if the Tories perform badly but respectably around here - I think we can close off the Canada 93 speculation. If get slaughtered in places that have more golf clubs than football clubs. Then they really could be slaughtered.
    Good post.

    Tonight hasn’t been great for Labour on the Red Wall yet again, and it’s a pattern now throughout this Parliament, considering mid terms like last year and year before supposed to be difficult for governing party. At the GE I’m beggining to think Labour will fail in some surprising Red Wall targets, but pick up surprise wins in Blue Wall.
    There's an interesting question about whether 2024/25 is Labour's version of Tory 2017 or 2019 on a very small change in its own vote - and what the Tory vote does. They could gain huge swathes of the 'Red Wall' - but not some oddball places that for various reasons are now quite Tory - on a middling swing. And daft places (along with the Lib Dems) down south that are traditionally Tory as sin but now despise their guts and have a sweetspot that delivers a landslide (2019).

    Alternatively, they do a Tory 2017 and miss lots of 'Red Wall' seats by narrow margins and give people like Michael Gove huge scares but they all hang on as Bagshot wine mums decide they like they like their local MP and the idea of the Tories over booting them out. In the same way many Red Wall places gave Labour one last shot in 2017. Just. Even while the Tories narrowed previously unsurmountable majorities hugely.
    wine mums You meant wine gums, though it makes sense either way.

    Where many on PB point out old Labour seats, like where there used to be mines, are changing and trending away from Labour, perhaps I’m wrong but it seems to me cities are trending away from Tories and their suburbs become the bellweather seats. And Brexit has accelerated this by making working class voters Labour all their lives vote Tory and Blue Wall remainers vote Lib Dem or Labour. I think in 1945 Labour won a lot in the countryside because there’s lots of poorly paid people living and working there, but used to lose in cities because people lived in big houses poor people couldn’t afford. Society has changed. Landscapes have changed. Aspirations are different. Work life balance is different, as rites of passage is now non existent. Wage slaves are still there, but hunched over laptops at home all hours like my ex was, and that could be scattered throughout the country not focussed in specific places like workers used to be.
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 985
    Eastleigh has been very consistently -10% in vote share for the Conservatives but their first defence has been declared and the incumbent councillor held on well.

    Fair Oak and Horton Heath (Eastleigh)
    Conservative 1,520 (+0.4% compared to 2021)
    Lib Dems 1,025 (+3.2%)
    Green 327 (-0.3%)
    Labour 262 (+3.4%)
    No Independent candidate (6.6% in 2021)
  • Options
    MJWMJW Posts: 1,527
    AlsoLei said:

    MJW said:

    AlsoLei said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Starmers stupid comments re Gaza on LBC coming back to haunt him .

    Later in the night there are plenty of further wards with a high Muslim percentage of voters.

    And of course, London.
    Khan came out early for a ceasefire and the Muslim population will back him especially as he’s up against Hall .
    “especially as he’s up against Hall”

    How well did many of the voters really know Hall, for it to become a motivational factor in their voting?
    It's a good point - I've not seen much local TV news myself, but hearing from friends who have it sounds like Hall has mostly been talking about housing and crime to the traditional media.

    The ULEZ / racist stuff has been confined to the micro-targetted Facebook campaign - if you're not a boomer or actively follow politics, it's unlikely that you'll have seen it.
    Two reasons I fear for Khan.

    1.) He's not got the same inner city enthusiasm as in the past. Not entirely his fault, or even mostly that, given councils block development and licensing, the government stop serious reform of the Met and crap on TfL but it's not a good record of promises and delivery. The Night Czar is a good example. He's employed a pointless PR person to celebrate nightlife when venues keep closing due to councils' behaviour. On a more serious note. There have been endless initiatives to tackle crime while Johnson-era police uselessness and closures continue.

    I'd vote for him if still lived in London in a heartbeat over Hall but others will not turn out.

    2.) Hall has likely been very effective in targeting ULEZ-land. The bits of London that fall within the mayoralty but aren't London but part of the surrounding counties. That was Boris' route to victory against people who were fed up with Livingstone.

    I dunno. But I worry the Labour campaign about Hall's crank views - and she is a crank - won't resonate as much as people blaming the Mayor for stuff that isn't necessarily his fault but is blamed for being ineffective on.
    On your first point, I agree entirely. I've heard Khan described as "a mayor for people who catch the bus, rather than those who use the tube". His biggest achievement from his second term has been the Superloop, and who in central london cares about that?

    The Night Czar stuff is a great example of how limited the Mayor's role is outside of transport - Amy Lame has done a decent job of publicising the issues, but the actual problem lies with the councils, the Home Office, and the DCMS. The Mayor should either back off entirely or there should be an all-out campaign with a full-time deputy Mayor rather than single part-time czar.

    Really, London desperately needs more coherent devolution - give the Mayor and GLA full control of the Met, and push responsibility for things like licencing and large-scale planning up to them from the borough councils.
    Entirely agree with that - as I say I am sympathetic to Khan, I think he is generally decent. And the problems are not his own. It's always worth remembering he has been the first London mayor to serve for 8 years under a government that has deliberately set out to stymie him and then blame him for the result (if I was him I'd have made a lot more of this and accused the Tories of stealing from London).

    Just, that's not politics, is it? People say what has been done for me, and what's been done against me. And there's not a huge amount in the inner city pro-Khan ledger, while people who hate him have their rallying cry in ULEZ despite it being good policy once the teething problems are over and vehicles have been replaced.

    Even Lamborgini are releasing ULEZ-compliant hybrids now. Not least as they are faster than the petrol versions.
  • Options
    MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,522
    edited May 3
    nico679 said:

    How Starmer must regret that LBC interview.

    It’s costing Labour and could well cost them the West Midlands mayoralty.

    You would imagine a human rights lawyer might have qualms when saying “Israel has the right” to withhold power and water from Palestinian civilians. The irony being its
    one of the few bits of substance he's said.
  • Options
    MJWMJW Posts: 1,527

    MJW said:

    MJW said:

    Sean_F said:

    For the umpteenth time, Broxbourne returns 9 Con to 1 Lab

    Claims Tories will finish minus 500 from only 970 defences are beginning to look very fanciful already.

    Some of the celebrity Psephologists set the Tory par score too high I think. Minus 400 Net might be a pretty bad result, but some of the celebrity psephologists who tend to write the headlines for the TV companies, won’t call it the bad result. Tories will certainly spin minus 390 as good result.

    But beware the Blue rinse out. We have been here before where the red wall rush is not so bad headlines for Tories at dawn, but by dusk the blue wall is a mess.
    Most sensible predictions I saw were around 400. They are going to overperform national polling in some places and do catastrophically in others. What's important, probably, is where. I'd look to obvious red wall Labour gains - is it winning enough switchers. And whether places like Surrey commuterland utterly collapse.

    Bizarrely, Surrey is a very interesting place to watch at the moment (full disclosure - Wokingian who went to Godalming college) as it's ground zero of the "people under 65 who used to vote Tory have just stopped and hate them for umpteen reasons" phenomenon. People are incredibly pissed off (notably Woking was a rare Tory stronghold that voted remain, and I'm sure we all know of the council's antics, and its house prices).

    Anyway, if the Tories perform badly but respectably around here - I think we can close off the Canada 93 speculation. If get slaughtered in places that have more golf clubs than football clubs. Then they really could be slaughtered.
    Good post.

    Tonight hasn’t been great for Labour on the Red Wall yet again, and it’s a pattern now throughout this Parliament, considering mid terms like last year and year before supposed to be difficult for governing party. At the GE I’m beggining to think Labour will fail in some surprising Red Wall targets, but pick up surprise wins in Blue Wall.
    There's an interesting question about whether 2024/25 is Labour's version of Tory 2017 or 2019 on a very small change in its own vote - and what the Tory vote does. They could gain huge swathes of the 'Red Wall' - but not some oddball places that for various reasons are now quite Tory - on a middling swing. And daft places (along with the Lib Dems) down south that are traditionally Tory as sin but now despise their guts and have a sweetspot that delivers a landslide (2019).

    Alternatively, they do a Tory 2017 and miss lots of 'Red Wall' seats by narrow margins and give people like Michael Gove huge scares but they all hang on as Bagshot wine mums decide they like they like their local MP and the idea of the Tories over booting them out. In the same way many Red Wall places gave Labour one last shot in 2017. Just. Even while the Tories narrowed previously unsurmountable majorities hugely.
    wine mums You meant wine gums, though it makes sense either way.

    Where many on PB point out old Labour seats, like where there used to be mines, are changing and trending away from Labour, perhaps I’m wrong but it seems to me cities are trending away from Tories and their suburbs become the bellweather seats. And Brexit has accelerated this by making working class voters Labour all their lives vote Tory and Blue Wall remainers vote Lib Dem or Labour. I think in 1945 Labour won a lot in the countryside because there’s lots of poorly paid people living and working there, but used to lose in cities because people lived in big houses poor people couldn’t afford. Society has changed. Landscapes have changed. Aspirations are different. Work life balance is different, as rites of passage is now non existent. Wage slaves are still there, but hunched over laptops at home all hours like my ex was, and that could be scattered throughout the country not focussed in specific places like workers used to be.
    I meant wine mums.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wine_mom
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147
    Andy_JS said:

    nico679 said:

    Blackpool South result not expected until 6 am . Pathetic !

    At the last general election it was declared at about 2:15am, and was number 86 out of 650 to be declared.
    Curtice has said as Labour held it from 1997 to 2019 a win is a no triumph for Labour but swing is what's important.
    Correct me where wrong, Curtice had just set 20% Swing as a benchmark par score for Labour, compared to their recent by election wins and national polling?
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,452
    The Tories are on track to lose over 600 seats at a minimum !
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 985
    First Reform result in Eastleigh and it's clear that Reform does seem to hurt the Conservatives more than other parties. Conservatives are losing 10% share across the borough, but nearly 19% in Eastleigh South.

    Eastleigh South (Eastleigh)
    Liberal Democrats 905 (+3.9% compared to 2021)
    Labour 397 (-5.8%)
    Conservative 241 (-18.9%)
    Reform UK 228 (+11.7%)
    Green 175 (+9.0%)
    Liberal Democrat HOLD
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147
    MJW said:

    MJW said:

    MJW said:

    Sean_F said:

    For the umpteenth time, Broxbourne returns 9 Con to 1 Lab

    Claims Tories will finish minus 500 from only 970 defences are beginning to look very fanciful already.

    Some of the celebrity Psephologists set the Tory par score too high I think. Minus 400 Net might be a pretty bad result, but some of the celebrity psephologists who tend to write the headlines for the TV companies, won’t call it the bad result. Tories will certainly spin minus 390 as good result.

    But beware the Blue rinse out. We have been here before where the red wall rush is not so bad headlines for Tories at dawn, but by dusk the blue wall is a mess.
    Most sensible predictions I saw were around 400. They are going to overperform national polling in some places and do catastrophically in others. What's important, probably, is where. I'd look to obvious red wall Labour gains - is it winning enough switchers. And whether places like Surrey commuterland utterly collapse.

    Bizarrely, Surrey is a very interesting place to watch at the moment (full disclosure - Wokingian who went to Godalming college) as it's ground zero of the "people under 65 who used to vote Tory have just stopped and hate them for umpteen reasons" phenomenon. People are incredibly pissed off (notably Woking was a rare Tory stronghold that voted remain, and I'm sure we all know of the council's antics, and its house prices).

    Anyway, if the Tories perform badly but respectably around here - I think we can close off the Canada 93 speculation. If get slaughtered in places that have more golf clubs than football clubs. Then they really could be slaughtered.
    Good post.

    Tonight hasn’t been great for Labour on the Red Wall yet again, and it’s a pattern now throughout this Parliament, considering mid terms like last year and year before supposed to be difficult for governing party. At the GE I’m beggining to think Labour will fail in some surprising Red Wall targets, but pick up surprise wins in Blue Wall.
    There's an interesting question about whether 2024/25 is Labour's version of Tory 2017 or 2019 on a very small change in its own vote - and what the Tory vote does. They could gain huge swathes of the 'Red Wall' - but not some oddball places that for various reasons are now quite Tory - on a middling swing. And daft places (along with the Lib Dems) down south that are traditionally Tory as sin but now despise their guts and have a sweetspot that delivers a landslide (2019).

    Alternatively, they do a Tory 2017 and miss lots of 'Red Wall' seats by narrow margins and give people like Michael Gove huge scares but they all hang on as Bagshot wine mums decide they like they like their local MP and the idea of the Tories over booting them out. In the same way many Red Wall places gave Labour one last shot in 2017. Just. Even while the Tories narrowed previously unsurmountable majorities hugely.
    wine mums You meant wine gums, though it makes sense either way.

    Where many on PB point out old Labour seats, like where there used to be mines, are changing and trending away from Labour, perhaps I’m wrong but it seems to me cities are trending away from Tories and their suburbs become the bellweather seats. And Brexit has accelerated this by making working class voters Labour all their lives vote Tory and Blue Wall remainers vote Lib Dem or Labour. I think in 1945 Labour won a lot in the countryside because there’s lots of poorly paid people living and working there, but used to lose in cities because people lived in big houses poor people couldn’t afford. Society has changed. Landscapes have changed. Aspirations are different. Work life balance is different, as rites of passage is now non existent. Wage slaves are still there, but hunched over laptops at home all hours like my ex was, and that could be scattered throughout the country not focussed in specific places like workers used to be.
    I meant wine mums.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wine_mom
    That sounds so sad 🙁
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147
    edited May 3
    nico679 said:

    The Tories are on track to lose over 600 seats at a minimum !

    Still unlikely. They are only defending 980.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,563
    edited May 3
    Do we have people local to Broxbourne around tonight?

    It is Tory Central (apparently), yet it is the only place in the entire country known to me to have applied a Public Space Protection Order to the control of Antisocial Parking - Borough wide aiui. To the extent that I use it regularly as an example of what *can* be done.

    https://www.broxbourne.gov.uk/environment/public-space-protection-order-pspo

    Why?

    PSPOs are imo a total mess, designed to allow local Councillors easily to target - with very little evidence or consultation or coherence or chance of redress - groups they think their voters don't like, and to send in the clipboard wielding 'community safety officers' or apparatchiks employed by the "Business Improvement District" to harass them.

    What happened in Broxbourne? A PSPO against pavement parking is the last thing I would expect in Tory Town, South-East. Is it commuters parking up and catching trains, or similar? Is it enforced?

    Genuinely interested.
  • Options
    MJWMJW Posts: 1,527

    nico679 said:

    How Starmer must regret that LBC interview.

    It’s costing Labour and could well cost them the West Midlands mayoralty.

    You would imagine a human rights lawyer might have qualms when saying “Israel has the right” to withhold power and water from Palestinian civilians. The irony being it was one of the few bits of substance he's said.
    Alternatively, if you look at the nature of pro-Palestinian/anti-Israel activism - is there any plausible position Starmer could take that would appease people who have a visceral hatred of Israel and believe it is inherently evil?

    No doubt it was a misstep - and has given enemies ammunition - but if he hadn't said it, the same people would still be accusing anyone who takes a remotely understanding position of Israel's actions against Hamas, of Genocide. Bernie Sanders has been condemned as a 'Zionist' genocide supporter FFS.

    The important question is whether Starmer, and more importantly we as a country end up in a position that brings about lasting peace (or tries to, most have failed). Sod whether it costs Labour some votes in some constituencies, frankly.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,452
    Labour gain Rushmoor council . That’s a huge result .
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,178
    MJW said:

    AlsoLei said:

    MJW said:

    AlsoLei said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Starmers stupid comments re Gaza on LBC coming back to haunt him .

    Later in the night there are plenty of further wards with a high Muslim percentage of voters.

    And of course, London.
    Khan came out early for a ceasefire and the Muslim population will back him especially as he’s up against Hall .
    “especially as he’s up against Hall”

    How well did many of the voters really know Hall, for it to become a motivational factor in their voting?
    It's a good point - I've not seen much local TV news myself, but hearing from friends who have it sounds like Hall has mostly been talking about housing and crime to the traditional media.

    The ULEZ / racist stuff has been confined to the micro-targetted Facebook campaign - if you're not a boomer or actively follow politics, it's unlikely that you'll have seen it.
    Two reasons I fear for Khan.

    1.) He's not got the same inner city enthusiasm as in the past. Not entirely his fault, or even mostly that, given councils block development and licensing, the government stop serious reform of the Met and crap on TfL but it's not a good record of promises and delivery. The Night Czar is a good example. He's employed a pointless PR person to celebrate nightlife when venues keep closing due to councils' behaviour. On a more serious note. There have been endless initiatives to tackle crime while Johnson-era police uselessness and closures continue.

    I'd vote for him if still lived in London in a heartbeat over Hall but others will not turn out.

    2.) Hall has likely been very effective in targeting ULEZ-land. The bits of London that fall within the mayoralty but aren't London but part of the surrounding counties. That was Boris' route to victory against people who were fed up with Livingstone.

    I dunno. But I worry the Labour campaign about Hall's crank views - and she is a crank - won't resonate as much as people blaming the Mayor for stuff that isn't necessarily his fault but is blamed for being ineffective on.
    On your first point, I agree entirely. I've heard Khan described as "a mayor for people who catch the bus, rather than those who use the tube". His biggest achievement from his second term has been the Superloop, and who in central london cares about that?

    The Night Czar stuff is a great example of how limited the Mayor's role is outside of transport - Amy Lame has done a decent job of publicising the issues, but the actual problem lies with the councils, the Home Office, and the DCMS. The Mayor should either back off entirely or there should be an all-out campaign with a full-time deputy Mayor rather than single part-time czar.

    Really, London desperately needs more coherent devolution - give the Mayor and GLA full control of the Met, and push responsibility for things like licencing and large-scale planning up to them from the borough councils.
    Entirely agree with that - as I say I am sympathetic to Khan, I think he is generally decent. And the problems are not his own. It's always worth remembering he has been the first London mayor to serve for 8 years under a government that has deliberately set out to stymie him and then blame him for the result (if I was him I'd have made a lot more of this and accused the Tories of stealing from London).

    Just, that's not politics, is it? People say what has been done for me, and what's been done against me. And there's not a huge amount in the inner city pro-Khan ledger, while people who hate him have their rallying cry in ULEZ despite it being good policy once the teething problems are over and vehicles have been replaced.

    Even Lamborgini are releasing ULEZ-compliant hybrids now. Not least as they are faster than the petrol versions.
    Serving for 8 years is a big part of the problem, at least amongst the people I know. There's a genuine feeling that two terms had been established as the norm - and that Khan hasn't done enough to warrant bucking the trend. I mean, he's not FDR, is he?

    To me, his manifesto was pretty weak. Going back to the fares freeze promise from his first term - well, fine, but that just means less money for much-needed infrastructure, doesn't it? Free school meals, ending rough sleeping, more police - all need a Labour govt to deliver. Otherwise, there are some promises around youth clubs, extending the Superloop, and the London Growth Plan. So what?

    He's a safe pair of hands, but offers nothing to actively vote for if you're pissed off with Labour for other reasons.
  • Options
    legatuslegatus Posts: 126

    nico679 said:

    The Tories are on track to lose over 600 seats at a minimum !

    Still unlikely. They are only defending 980.
    At the moment the Tories are losing circa 65% of the seats being defended.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,769

    MJW said:

    MJW said:

    MJW said:

    Sean_F said:

    For the umpteenth time, Broxbourne returns 9 Con to 1 Lab

    Claims Tories will finish minus 500 from only 970 defences are beginning to look very fanciful already.

    Some of the celebrity Psephologists set the Tory par score too high I think. Minus 400 Net might be a pretty bad result, but some of the celebrity psephologists who tend to write the headlines for the TV companies, won’t call it the bad result. Tories will certainly spin minus 390 as good result.

    But beware the Blue rinse out. We have been here before where the red wall rush is not so bad headlines for Tories at dawn, but by dusk the blue wall is a mess.
    Most sensible predictions I saw were around 400. They are going to overperform national polling in some places and do catastrophically in others. What's important, probably, is where. I'd look to obvious red wall Labour gains - is it winning enough switchers. And whether places like Surrey commuterland utterly collapse.

    Bizarrely, Surrey is a very interesting place to watch at the moment (full disclosure - Wokingian who went to Godalming college) as it's ground zero of the "people under 65 who used to vote Tory have just stopped and hate them for umpteen reasons" phenomenon. People are incredibly pissed off (notably Woking was a rare Tory stronghold that voted remain, and I'm sure we all know of the council's antics, and its house prices).

    Anyway, if the Tories perform badly but respectably around here - I think we can close off the Canada 93 speculation. If get slaughtered in places that have more golf clubs than football clubs. Then they really could be slaughtered.
    Good post.

    Tonight hasn’t been great for Labour on the Red Wall yet again, and it’s a pattern now throughout this Parliament, considering mid terms like last year and year before supposed to be difficult for governing party. At the GE I’m beggining to think Labour will fail in some surprising Red Wall targets, but pick up surprise wins in Blue Wall.
    There's an interesting question about whether 2024/25 is Labour's version of Tory 2017 or 2019 on a very small change in its own vote - and what the Tory vote does. They could gain huge swathes of the 'Red Wall' - but not some oddball places that for various reasons are now quite Tory - on a middling swing. And daft places (along with the Lib Dems) down south that are traditionally Tory as sin but now despise their guts and have a sweetspot that delivers a landslide (2019).

    Alternatively, they do a Tory 2017 and miss lots of 'Red Wall' seats by narrow margins and give people like Michael Gove huge scares but they all hang on as Bagshot wine mums decide they like they like their local MP and the idea of the Tories over booting them out. In the same way many Red Wall places gave Labour one last shot in 2017. Just. Even while the Tories narrowed previously unsurmountable majorities hugely.
    wine mums You meant wine gums, though it makes sense either way.

    Where many on PB point out old Labour seats, like where there used to be mines, are changing and trending away from Labour, perhaps I’m wrong but it seems to me cities are trending away from Tories and their suburbs become the bellweather seats. And Brexit has accelerated this by making working class voters Labour all their lives vote Tory and Blue Wall remainers vote Lib Dem or Labour. I think in 1945 Labour won a lot in the countryside because there’s lots of poorly paid people living and working there, but used to lose in cities because people lived in big houses poor people couldn’t afford. Society has changed. Landscapes have changed. Aspirations are different. Work life balance is different, as rites of passage is now non existent. Wage slaves are still there, but hunched over laptops at home all hours like my ex was, and that could be scattered throughout the country not focussed in specific places like workers used to be.
    I meant wine mums.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wine_mom
    That sounds so sad 🙁
    Really?

    Well off young mothers enjoying a glass or three of Puligny Montrachet in the evening sounds idyllic to me.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,634
    AlsoLei said:

    MJW said:

    AlsoLei said:

    MJW said:

    AlsoLei said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Starmers stupid comments re Gaza on LBC coming back to haunt him .

    Later in the night there are plenty of further wards with a high Muslim percentage of voters.

    And of course, London.
    Khan came out early for a ceasefire and the Muslim population will back him especially as he’s up against Hall .
    “especially as he’s up against Hall”

    How well did many of the voters really know Hall, for it to become a motivational factor in their voting?
    It's a good point - I've not seen much local TV news myself, but hearing from friends who have it sounds like Hall has mostly been talking about housing and crime to the traditional media.

    The ULEZ / racist stuff has been confined to the micro-targetted Facebook campaign - if you're not a boomer or actively follow politics, it's unlikely that you'll have seen it.
    Two reasons I fear for Khan.

    1.) He's not got the same inner city enthusiasm as in the past. Not entirely his fault, or even mostly that, given councils block development and licensing, the government stop serious reform of the Met and crap on TfL but it's not a good record of promises and delivery. The Night Czar is a good example. He's employed a pointless PR person to celebrate nightlife when venues keep closing due to councils' behaviour. On a more serious note. There have been endless initiatives to tackle crime while Johnson-era police uselessness and closures continue.

    I'd vote for him if still lived in London in a heartbeat over Hall but others will not turn out.

    2.) Hall has likely been very effective in targeting ULEZ-land. The bits of London that fall within the mayoralty but aren't London but part of the surrounding counties. That was Boris' route to victory against people who were fed up with Livingstone.

    I dunno. But I worry the Labour campaign about Hall's crank views - and she is a crank - won't resonate as much as people blaming the Mayor for stuff that isn't necessarily his fault but is blamed for being ineffective on.
    On your first point, I agree entirely. I've heard Khan described as "a mayor for people who catch the bus, rather than those who use the tube". His biggest achievement from his second term has been the Superloop, and who in central london cares about that?

    The Night Czar stuff is a great example of how limited the Mayor's role is outside of transport - Amy Lame has done a decent job of publicising the issues, but the actual problem lies with the councils, the Home Office, and the DCMS. The Mayor should either back off entirely or there should be an all-out campaign with a full-time deputy Mayor rather than single part-time czar.

    Really, London desperately needs more coherent devolution - give the Mayor and GLA full control of the Met, and push responsibility for things like licencing and large-scale planning up to them from the borough councils.
    Entirely agree with that - as I say I am sympathetic to Khan, I think he is generally decent. And the problems are not his own. It's always worth remembering he has been the first London mayor to serve for 8 years under a government that has deliberately set out to stymie him and then blame him for the result (if I was him I'd have made a lot more of this and accused the Tories of stealing from London).

    Just, that's not politics, is it? People say what has been done for me, and what's been done against me. And there's not a huge amount in the inner city pro-Khan ledger, while people who hate him have their rallying cry in ULEZ despite it being good policy once the teething problems are over and vehicles have been replaced.

    Even Lamborgini are releasing ULEZ-compliant hybrids now. Not least as they are faster than the petrol versions.
    Serving for 8 years is a big part of the problem, at least amongst the people I know. There's a genuine feeling that two terms had been established as the norm - and that Khan hasn't done enough to warrant bucking the trend. I mean, he's not FDR, is he?

    To me, his manifesto was pretty weak. Going back to the fares freeze promise from his first term - well, fine, but that just means less money for much-needed infrastructure, doesn't it? Free school meals, ending rough sleeping, more police - all need a Labour govt to deliver. Otherwise, there are some promises around youth clubs, extending the Superloop, and the London Growth Plan. So what?

    He's a safe pair of hands, but offers nothing to actively vote for if you're pissed off with Labour for other reasons.
    You can still get 18.5 if you think Susan Hall is going to win.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.201750386
  • Options
    legatuslegatus Posts: 126
    I don't believe Reform has yet won a seat tonight. No reason for Ofcom to award the party Major Party status for the GE.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,403
    Fareham, as predicted by @stodge seems a comfortable Conservative hold.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,414
    edited May 3
    BBC KEY WARDS - CHANGE SINCE 2023 (LAST YEAR!!!)

    Lab +1
    Con -2
    LD -3
    Green +1
    Reform +2

    After 219/811 Key Wards - so decent sample.
This discussion has been closed.