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MRP benchmarks and assorted thoughts – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,733
edited May 12 in General
imageMRP benchmarks and assorted thoughts – politicalbetting.com

We've used MRP to call 16 key local authority battlegrounds at the coming local elections – we predict significant Tory losses to LabourYou can see our calls in the chart below, and read more detailed analysis from @PME_Politics here: https://t.co/BpN5k8XcOJ pic.twitter.com/cKZywoi7GC

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,966
    First?
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,966

    First?

    Unlike the Tories
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,636
    3rd.

    Like the Tories.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    "Some Conservative gains"? What is going on in Reigate and Banstead to predict that?
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    bobbobbobbob Posts: 9
    Wow how is Thurrock council still Conservative after everything that happened there?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    Not as great a night predicted for the Greens compared to last year then (outside of Bristol, where I'd agree they are looking good).

    I'd forgotten about Blackpool South, in this climate that was always going to be hopeless.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,958
    Well the previous thread lasted about as long as Loopy Lizzie's time as PM...
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,219
    bobbob said:

    Wow how is Thurrock council still Conservative after everything that happened there?

    It's a very strange place.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 10,043
    FPT

    I have a feeling in my bones the Tories will do better than that. Based on recent council by-elections where they’ve had a few surprising holds and even a couple of gains, and based on the fact the mystical 10-15% Reform vote (which is just disgruntled Tories) has nowhere to go today except back home.

    Con -300
    Lab +140
    LD + 90
    Green +30
    Other +40
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,907
    Oxford looking messy - gains for the anti-LTN independents look nailed on. Labour should probably regain control though as the Corbynites who left over Gaza aren’t re-standing.

    West Oxfordshire and Cherwell both looking good for the LibDems, but West might fall short of a majority (hard to call) and Cherwell will certainly remain NOC.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    edited May 2
    bobbob said:

    Wow how is Thurrock council still Conservative after everything that happened there?

    I'd understand it more if they had not voted for some time, but they only lost a couple last year (albeit only winning 4 of the 16 on offer) - though the swing was terrible.

    Could be a bloodbath this time?
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    DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    edited May 2
    Andy_JS said:

    bobbob said:

    Wow how is Thurrock council still Conservative after everything that happened there?

    It's a very strange place.
    Bit of a curate's egg. True even of Margate on its own. I hope the rose-ringed parakeets haven't left.
    The abandoned ex-hoverport is an atmospheric place for sure.
    What do you find strange about it, Andy_JS?
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,958
    edited May 2
    When do we get the London Mayoral result?

    EDIT: Ah, found it in the table.

    Not until Saturday lunchtime? Disappointing.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Prime Minister Gordon Brown talks to students at Prendergast Hilly Fields School in London. Mr Brown's leadership is under increasing pressure after a week of set backs for the government in Parliament. (2009)





    https://x.com/shitbritishpics/status/1786138595100615000?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
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    TimSTimS Posts: 10,043
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,280
    GIN1138 said:

    Well the previous thread lasted about as long as Loopy Lizzie's time as PM...

    TRUSS you say?

    Interesting.

    VERY interesting.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,985

    Andy_JS said:

    "A former soldier said he was left “gutted” today when he was denied a vote at the polling station, as his Veteran ID was turned down as a valid form of photo identification.

    Under the Tory government’s new draconian voter ID rules, his photo ID did not qualify as a valid document required in order to cast a vote in the local elections today.

    Former soldier Adam Diver wrote on X: “I’m not one for complaining but I am gutted! I spent 27 years in the Army and today I was going to vote in my local elections. “I was sadly turned away at the door as my Veteran ID was not allowed as formal ID. “I will be fighting for this “special ID” to be “more” formal.” The Electoral Reform Society said the case showed the “arbitrary nature of voter ID rules” in which the government gets to decide what counts, and what doesn’t.

    Tory MP Johnny Mercer replied to the veteran with an apology and said he’d try to update the list of valid IDs before the general election. The MP for Plymouth Moor View said: “I am sorry about this. The legislation on acceptable forms of ID came out before the veterans ID cards started coming out in January this year. I will do all I can to change it before the next one.” "

    https://leftfootforward.org/2024/05/tory-mp-apologises-to-veteran-denied-vote-at-polls-over-valid-photo-id/

    How hard is it to check the suitable list of IDs? Are people doing this on purpose? And as for the government getting to decide what counts and what doesn’t, that might be because governments pass legislation…
    I was checked twice.

    On the door "have you got ID".
    At the desk "please show me your ID".

    This seems wise as a preparation for the General Election where there will be a *lot* more people coming in. Given that it will still be Rishi Sunk's Government, we can presumably expect confusion in some degree.

    We had a discussion whilst I was voting about the precedent of using a penis as a mark, whilst also talking about volunteering etc.

    The suggestion was made that were I to volunteer I should not ask that of the interviewer as my first question.

    Six candidates for mayor, incidentally.

    One thing often forgotten about Mr Political Job in Nottinghamshire Ben Bradley is that he is only 34. Even Zadrozny is only 44.

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139

    ...

    TimS said:

    Britain Elects forecast

    NEW | Our 2024 local election forecast:

    Net change in council seats for...
    -478 | Conservative
    +273 | Labour
    +129 | Lib Dem
    +52 | Greeen
    +24 | Other

    Would be very bad but not quite Wellingborough bad for the Tories

    I have a feeling in my bones the Tories will do better than that. Based on recent council by-elections where they’ve had a few surprising holds and even a couple of gains, and based on the fact the mystical 10-15% Reform vote (which is just disgruntled Tories) has nowhere to go today except back home.

    Con -300
    Lab +140
    LD + 90
    Green +30
    Other +40
    That's awful for Labour and excellent for Rishi. It looks like game-on!
    Lack of Reform candidates, innit?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,766
    GIN1138 said:

    When do we get the London Mayoral result?

    Saturday afternoon, see the graphic in the header.
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,732
    Andy_JS said:

    bobbob said:

    Wow how is Thurrock council still Conservative after everything that happened there?

    It's a very strange place.
    True.
    Also, elections by thirds. As of yesterday, 2/3 of the council was elected before the fiasco became clear.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,370
    TimS said:
    Khan closer than expected? Anyone have any sense of the order of declaration? Obviously he’ll win but is there a chance of spooked markets?
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    TimSTimS Posts: 10,043
    edited May 2
    isam said:

    Prime Minister Gordon Brown talks to students at Prendergast Hilly Fields School in London. Mr Brown's leadership is under increasing pressure after a week of set backs for the government in Parliament. (2009)



    https://x.com/shitbritishpics/status/1786138595100615000?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    One of our local schools. Very nice spot and rather nice facilities for a state secondary.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,958

    GIN1138 said:

    When do we get the London Mayoral result?

    Saturday afternoon, see the graphic in the header.
    I found it! :D
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    edited May 2
    TimS said:
    3. Khan likely to hold London but will be closer than expected.

    That tracks. It was the case last time as well, and this time the Khan is predicted to be even further ahead than then, so 'closer than expected' covers a wider range.
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    DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    edited May 2
    Latest prices matched at Betfair: Tory losses:
    >=500: 2.00;
    <500: 1.66.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,958
    edited May 2
    biggles said:

    TimS said:
    Khan closer than expected? Anyone have any sense of the order of declaration? Obviously he’ll win but is there a chance of spooked markets?
    Well lets see, but if it does indeed turn out that Khan wins with a significantly lower percentage than the 20% YouGov gave him yesterday, they will have questions to answer about their methodology for this and their general election polls...
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,877
    edited May 2
    Pro_Rata said:

    It is done. Let the spin commence

    OK, let me start a subject. For whatever party you are aligned to - what is your ideal batting line up to spin the party line on election night?

    For my money - get Jonathan Reynolds on first, don't want to fall asleep for the bulk of the results so don't put him in the middle of the night, Lucy Powell in the lully bit that
    needs some general vacuity, Ashworth to be combative for the early meat, then Pat McFadden for the wry summing up.
    FPT due to TSE prematurely getting up the kind of new thread pace that Andrew Neil was famed for.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,110
    kle4 said:

    TimS said:
    3. Khan likely to hold London but will be closer than expected.

    That tracks. It was the case last time as well, and this time the Khan is predicted to be even further behind than then, so 'closer than expected' covers a wider range.
    Closer than expected related to the YouGov or Savanta polls ? It does as you say cover a wide range .
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    Next idea to avoid defeat? Be more confident lads, a conviction is not a certainty here!

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,766
    GIN1138 said:

    Well the previous thread lasted about as long as Loopy Lizzie's time as PM...

    Election day/night threads often had a rapid turn around time but I don't expect to do a new thread until the 7am.

    Oh and my romantic weekend break starts tomorrow.
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,237
    TimS said:

    isam said:

    Prime Minister Gordon Brown talks to students at Prendergast Hilly Fields School in London. Mr Brown's leadership is under increasing pressure after a week of set backs for the government in Parliament. (2009)



    https://x.com/shitbritishpics/status/1786138595100615000?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    One of our local schools. Very nice spot and rather nice facilities for a state secondary.
    My younger daughter does her weekend drama classes there!
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,958

    GIN1138 said:

    Well the previous thread lasted about as long as Loopy Lizzie's time as PM...

    Election day/night threads often had a rapid turn around time but I don't expect to do a new thread until the 7am.

    Oh and my romantic weekend break starts tomorrow.
    Rishi to resign on Saturday evening just as you're about to sit down to champagne and oysters?
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,219
    biggles said:

    TimS said:
    Khan closer than expected? Anyone have any sense of the order of declaration? Obviously he’ll win but is there a chance of spooked markets?
    Is closer than expected supposed to be closer than the 10% margin the latest poll showed?
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,493
    Not sure if it’s a sign but ever since the polls closed there’s been a storm raging, thunder, lightning the works.
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,562
    I will state my big egg-on-face prediction once more at the top of the evening.

    Khan and Hall will be within 5% of each other in London.

    But I think the Tories will generally do crap in most places.
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    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,254
    Andy_JS said:

    biggles said:

    TimS said:
    Khan closer than expected? Anyone have any sense of the order of declaration? Obviously he’ll win but is there a chance of spooked markets?
    Is closer than expected supposed to be closer than the 10% margin the latest poll showed?
    I suspect it will be less than 10% but DYOR!
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,636
    Street now fav on BF.

    Just.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,047
    Andy_JS said:

    biggles said:

    TimS said:
    Khan closer than expected? Anyone have any sense of the order of declaration? Obviously he’ll win but is there a chance of spooked markets?
    Is closer than expected supposed to be closer than the 10% margin the latest poll showed?
    Close only counts with handgrenades and horseshoes.
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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,370

    I will state my big egg-on-face prediction once more at the top of the evening.

    Khan and Hall will be within 5% of each other in London.

    But I think the Tories will generally do crap in most places.

    Really???
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,110
    Andy_JS said:

    biggles said:

    TimS said:
    Khan closer than expected? Anyone have any sense of the order of declaration? Obviously he’ll win but is there a chance of spooked markets?
    Is closer than expected supposed to be closer than the 10% margin the latest poll showed?
    The Savanta apparently used a different methodology from other’s although I’ve been unable to find out exactly what was different . It was the newest poll in terms of fieldwork so maybe caught a reaction to the tragic events.
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    bobbobbobbob Posts: 9
    edited May 2
    Anyone in the East Midlands? Seemed like all the candidates posters talked about Nottingham trams but I live 30 miles away! More interested in the tube than trams I’ve never used. So much for a local mayor and local issues…
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,047
    Comfortable win for Khan (>10%) but Street and Houchon hang on.

    Based upon my guessing stick.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,219
    bobbob said:

    Anyone in the East Midlands? Seemed like all the posters talked about Nottingham trams but I live 30 miles away! More interested in the tube than trams I’ve never used. So much for a local mayor and local issues…

    Not far from the East Midlands, but can't help with election news.
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    The_WoodpeckerThe_Woodpecker Posts: 405
    Donkeys said:

    Andy_JS said:

    bobbob said:

    Wow how is Thurrock council still Conservative after everything that happened there?

    It's a very strange place.
    Bit of a curate's egg. True even of Margate on its own. I hope the rose-ringed parakeets haven't left.
    The abandoned ex-hoverport is an atmospheric place for sure.
    What do you find strange about it, Andy_JS?
    Mainly that Thurrock is in Essex and Margate is on Thanet in Kent.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,280
    Andy_JS said:

    biggles said:

    TimS said:
    Khan closer than expected? Anyone have any sense of the order of declaration? Obviously he’ll win but is there a chance of spooked markets?
    Is closer than expected supposed to be closer than the 10% margin the latest poll showed?
    My wife forgot to vote today. There will be loads like her. I think, for that reason, it will be close(ish). But I don’t suppose I will win £310 off my tenner bet.
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    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,646
    Foxy said:

    Comfortable win for Khan (>10%) but Street and Houchon hang on.

    Based upon my guessing stick.

    Nick Watt on Newsnight predicting Houchen holds on.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,110
    It’s ridiculous so Sunak hangs on because they hold onto Tees Valley . Talk about putting the smallest of hurdles to overcome to then proclaim victory .
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    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,646
    Curtice on Newsnight now.
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    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,254

    Andy_JS said:

    biggles said:

    TimS said:
    Khan closer than expected? Anyone have any sense of the order of declaration? Obviously he’ll win but is there a chance of spooked markets?
    Is closer than expected supposed to be closer than the 10% margin the latest poll showed?
    My wife forgot to vote today. There will be loads like her. I think, for that reason, it will be close(ish). But I don’t suppose I will win £310 off my tenner bet.
    Only two days to wait to find out!
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,461
    nico679 said:

    It’s ridiculous so Sunak hangs on because they hold onto Tees Valley . Talk about putting the smallest of hurdles to overcome to then proclaim victory .

    Yep. Glorious. A swing so vast that it will demolish every Teesside Tory bar Houchen. And thus the Tory government. And Ben himself gets to face the coming NAO then police investigations into Teesport...
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,081

    Foxy said:

    Comfortable win for Khan (>10%) but Street and Houchon hang on.

    Based upon my guessing stick.

    Nick Watt on Newsnight predicting Houchen holds on.
    He says that Labour are saying that every incumbent mayor will win, so Houchen and Street and Khan.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593
    McFadden tweets the result in Blackpool is the most important tonight.
    Confident there or results elsewhere look underwhelming?
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,117

    Foxy said:

    Comfortable win for Khan (>10%) but Street and Houchon hang on.

    Based upon my guessing stick.

    Nick Watt on Newsnight predicting Houchen holds on.
    He says that Labour are saying that every incumbent mayor will win, so Houchen and Street and Khan.
    What about Driscoll?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013

    nico679 said:

    It’s ridiculous so Sunak hangs on because they hold onto Tees Valley . Talk about putting the smallest of hurdles to overcome to then proclaim victory .

    Yep. Glorious. A swing so vast that it will demolish every Teesside Tory bar Houchen. And thus the Tory government. And Ben himself gets to face the coming NAO then police investigations into Teesport...
    Why was there such a huge swing between 2017 and 2021?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,318
    478 council seats lost could be worse for the Conservatives. At this stage of the local elections cycle the Tories lost 607 council seats in 1996 for instance and Labour lost almost as many, 464, in 2004
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,689
    kle4 said:

    ...

    TimS said:

    Britain Elects forecast

    NEW | Our 2024 local election forecast:

    Net change in council seats for...
    -478 | Conservative
    +273 | Labour
    +129 | Lib Dem
    +52 | Greeen
    +24 | Other

    Would be very bad but not quite Wellingborough bad for the Tories

    I have a feeling in my bones the Tories will do better than that. Based on recent council by-elections where they’ve had a few surprising holds and even a couple of gains, and based on the fact the mystical 10-15% Reform vote (which is just disgruntled Tories) has nowhere to go today except back home.

    Con -300
    Lab +140
    LD + 90
    Green +30
    Other +40
    That's awful for Labour and excellent for Rishi. It looks like game-on!
    Lack of Reform candidates, innit?
    I disagree with Pete, I don’t think losing more than 450 is excellent for Rishi. They are not defending thousands only 950, so 450 losses is nearly 50% loss rate. As we are getting closer to the General Election things are on the turn now. Tory losses will be under 400. And that’s only par.

    Btw we don’t mean losses do we, we mean NET on balance sheet? Because to lose 500 but win 100 is only 400 losses? This is important because the Tories will be winning seats in places as well as losing. Councils not in their control have made unpopular decisions. Watch for the amount of Conservative wins keeping the net loss in the 300s
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593
    edited May 2
    Tory say rural vote collapsed/stayed home but other areas a bit better
    Not sounding worried about reform in Blackpool (yet)
    LDs happy in battles direct with Cons
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    edited May 2
    HYUFD said:

    478 council seats lost could be worse for the Conservatives. At this stage of the local elections cycle the Tories lost 607 council seats in 1996 for instance and Labour lost almost as many, 464, in 2004

    They lost 1000 last year, compared to that almost anything would look good.

    (I believing losing that many may not even be possible?)
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,689
    HYUFD said:

    478 council seats lost could be worse for the Conservatives. At this stage of the local elections cycle the Tories lost 607 council seats in 1996 for instance and Labour lost almost as many, 464, in 2004

    You are spot on HY. It’s about percentages isn’t it?
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,081

    Foxy said:

    Comfortable win for Khan (>10%) but Street and Houchon hang on.

    Based upon my guessing stick.

    Nick Watt on Newsnight predicting Houchen holds on.
    He says that Labour are saying that every incumbent mayor will win, so Houchen and Street and Khan.
    What about Driscoll?
    Not mentioned, but I don't think he counts as an incumbent.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    edited May 2

    Tory say rural vote collapsed/stayed home but other areas a bit better
    Not sounding worried about reform in Blackpool (yet)
    LDs happy in battles direct with Cons

    Before they truly collapsed in national polling my recollection of some locals was not as bad as it could be in the north, but then nightmare as the night went on and results (geographically and otherwise) went south.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,110
    The spin from the Tories is if they hold the mayors for West Midlands and Tees Valley and do better than expected in London it’s job done , Sunak is a winner blah blah blah ...
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,081
    Newsnight already degenerated into a shouting match between the Tory and the Labour representatives.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,317
    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,074

    Foxy said:

    Comfortable win for Khan (>10%) but Street and Houchon hang on.

    Based upon my guessing stick.

    Nick Watt on Newsnight predicting Houchen holds on.
    He says that Labour are saying that every incumbent mayor will win, so Houchen and Street and Khan.
    What about Driscoll?
    He's not an incumbent.
    Different geography.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593
    kle4 said:

    Tory say rural vote collapsed/stayed home but other areas a bit better
    Not sounding worried about reform in Blackpool (yet)
    LDs happy in battles direct with Cons

    Before they truly collapsed in national polling my recollection of some locals was not as bad as it could be in the north, but then nightmare as the night went and results (geographically and otherwise) went south.
    Yeah,... so maybe somewhere like Dudley okish.....
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139

    Newsnight already degenerated into a shouting match between the Tory and the Labour representatives.

    So the producers will be happy with whoever organised the bookings?
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593
    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    If they win London it is definitively a narrative shifter, if not a poll shifter
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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,370
    kle4 said:

    Newsnight already degenerated into a shouting match between the Tory and the Labour representatives.

    So the producers will be happy with whoever organised the bookings?
    I can never work it out. Why not be the bigger person? Presumably the polling shows that folk like their politicians shouting?
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,689
    kle4 said:

    Tory say rural vote collapsed/stayed home but other areas a bit better
    Not sounding worried about reform in Blackpool (yet)
    LDs happy in battles direct with Cons

    Before they truly collapses in national polling my recollection of some locals was not as bad as it could be in the north, but then nightmare as the night went and results (geographically and otherwise) went south.
    I remember a locals night when the Red wall was counted over night and Starmer had flopped. But as following days headlines told us of the Labour flop, the results coming in was the Blue Wall collapsing to yellow and red in historic proportion.

    This is why PB should go into nights like this with up front agreement on NEV and PNS par score, because it padlocks the door to the spin room. Starmer needs a NEV and PNS of 40% imo, 4 points down on his national polling and six behind Blair.
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    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,646
    ToryJim said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    Someone has snorted too many lines of Colombian sherbert
    I'd absolutely LMAO if they won London, but that seems delusional.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,280

    Andy_JS said:

    biggles said:

    TimS said:
    Khan closer than expected? Anyone have any sense of the order of declaration? Obviously he’ll win but is there a chance of spooked markets?
    Is closer than expected supposed to be closer than the 10% margin the latest poll showed?
    My wife forgot to vote today. There will be loads like her. I think, for that reason, it will be close(ish). But I don’t suppose I will win £310 off my tenner bet.
    Only two days to wait to find out!
    It really is ludicrous that they don’t count London until Saturday. What a stupid system.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,682
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    478 council seats lost could be worse for the Conservatives. At this stage of the local elections cycle the Tories lost 607 council seats in 1996 for instance and Labour lost almost as many, 464, in 2004

    They lost 1000 last year, compared to that almost anything would look good.

    (I believing losing that many may not even be possible?)
    That's right, they're defending fewer than a thousand this time. Losing half their councillors seems like a reasonable benchmark. If they lose half their MPs they'd end up with about 180.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    If they win London it is definitively a narrative shifter, if not a poll shifter
    If they win London the date of the next GE is announced 5 minutes later, to take place as soon as is legally possible.
    Someone is having a laugh, if they claim the Tories have won London.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    Newsnight already degenerated into a shouting match between the Tory and the Labour representatives.

    So the producers will be happy with whoever organised the bookings?
    I can never work it out. Why not be the bigger person? Presumably the polling shows that folk like their politicians shouting?
    I suspect people like the idea of politicians being grown ups, but they also like it when politicians and parties they dislike get bashed. And they can get news from a million sources, so they don't watch even political programmes for information, but entertainment, or at least infotainment. So people give media appearances a pass on the grown up front.

    It's why I never bought it when Bercow or whoever claimed the public don't like the bearpit and pettiness of PMQs. If they didn't like it, or at least cared enough to dislike it, the politicians would change their approach quickly.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,958
    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,370
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    If they win London it is definitively a narrative shifter, if not a poll shifter
    If they win London the date of the next GE is announced 5 minutes later, to take place as soon as is legally possible.
    Someone is having a laugh, if they claim the Tories have won London.
    I would eat my… actually no, we all saw what happened to Ashdown.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    Kudos to whoever decided to start a rumour the Tories were confident in London. Either they look like geniuses, or they successful distract social media with laughter for an hour.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,985
    bobbob said:

    Anyone in the East Midlands? Seemed like all the posters talked about Nottingham trams but I live 30 miles away! More interested in the tube than trams I’ve never used. So much for a local mayor and local issues…

    I'm not sure what you are after.

    I don't know if they do area counts for Mayor then add up.

    I'm told there's some sort of count happening at Kirkby-in-Ashfield, but that must be a sub-count, surely?
  • Options
    Doogle1941Doogle1941 Posts: 14
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    If they win London it is definitively a narrative shifter, if not a poll shifter
    If they win London the date of the next GE is announced 5 minutes later, to take place as soon as is legally possible.
    Someone is having a laugh, if they claim the Tories have won London.
    Could voter id requirements be significant ? Is there any data on that ?
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593

    ToryJim said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    Someone has snorted too many lines of Colombian sherbert
    I'd absolutely LMAO if they won London, but that seems delusional.
    Surely it's Rwanda/Congo?
    They've confused the biggest city in the UK with Middlesborough
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,877
    edited May 2
    Pro_Rata said:

    An old mate of mine told me today the Leeds Tories are bricking it. There’s a good chance their group leader will be unseated by a Green challenger. The ward is Wetherby, a formerly rock solid Tory, affluent market town in leafy, rural-ish NE Leeds. He’s a former mayor of Wetherby and is well known and is hoping incumbency helps, but a Green was elected last time and apparently it’s all a bit squeaky bum time. They expect all the other Tories up for re-election to lose, some of those from formerly rock solid Tory wards too.

    That surprises me because my call is Conservatives doing okay in North Yorkshire when it comes to Mayor election, it will be a third Tory win with Street and Houchen. North Yorkshire overall will always be Tory. For ever and ever.
    Wasn't there a poll putting Labour ahead in NY?
    And not even close. But completely against the narrative.

    I was wrong in Rochdale, the narrative was right. Trust the narrative more than difficult to do mayor polls?
    The NY mayoral includes York which will be about 1/3 of the total weight, right?
    Lab majority 13.6k over Con in York in 2023, with about 17k LD votes to factor in.

    NY unitary, 2022, 40k Con majority over Lab with 26k LDs to factor in.
  • Options
    FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,971
    edited May 2
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    If they win London it is definitively a narrative shifter, if not a poll shifter
    If they win London the date of the next GE is announced 5 minutes later, to take place as soon as is legally possible.
    Someone is having a laugh, if they claim the Tories have won London.
    Talking up their portfolio to sell at a better price? Can't be real.


    This Saturday counting nonsense has to be stopped, though. Democracy delayed is democracy denied!

    Are they all too nesh to stay up until 4am?
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,370
    kle4 said:

    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    Newsnight already degenerated into a shouting match between the Tory and the Labour representatives.

    So the producers will be happy with whoever organised the bookings?
    I can never work it out. Why not be the bigger person? Presumably the polling shows that folk like their politicians shouting?
    I suspect people like the idea of politicians being grown ups, but they also like it when politicians and parties they dislike get bashed. And they can get news from a million sources, so they don't watch even political programmes for information, but entertainment, or at least infotainment. So people give media appearances a pass on the grown up front.

    It's why I never bought it when Bercow or whoever claimed the public don't like the bearpit and pettiness of PMQs. If they didn't like it, or at least cared enough to dislike it, the politicians would change their approach quickly.
    The sound bites part is a good shout. They are playing for their 5 seconds, not the wider picture.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,219
    edited May 2
    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    Utterly convinced? Bloody hell. She was 35/1 on Betfair earlier today.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    If they win London it is definitively a narrative shifter, if not a poll shifter
    If they win London the date of the next GE is announced 5 minutes later, to take place as soon as is legally possible.
    Someone is having a laugh, if they claim the Tories have won London.
    Could voter id requirements be significant ? Is there any data on that ?
    The impact is marginal.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,280

    ToryJim said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    Someone has snorted too many lines of Colombian sherbert
    I'd absolutely LMAO if they won London,
    Why? Some of us live here you know.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,493

    ToryJim said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    Someone has snorted too many lines of Colombian sherbert
    I'd absolutely LMAO if they won London, but that seems delusional.
    It’s the bunker scene in Downfall on steroids level delusional. They are suggesting one of the biggest polling misfires in history.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,542
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
    If he had any sense he would have gone when he inherited the job…
  • Options
    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,646

    ToryJim said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    Someone has snorted too many lines of Colombian sherbert
    I'd absolutely LMAO if they won London, but that seems delusional.
    Surely it's Rwanda/Congo?
    They've confused the biggest city in the UK with Middlesborough
    Are they thinking of Londonderry, because they wouldn't win that either?

    I'm just going to imagine Susan Hall beating Sadiq Khan. Nope. Can't do it.

  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593
    Labour now saying London will be 'very very close'
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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,370
    kle4 said:

    Kudos to whoever decided to start a rumour the Tories were confident in London. Either they look like geniuses, or they successful distract social media with laughter for an hour.

    They moved bet fair for a few seconds.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,985
    Sean_F said:

    nico679 said:

    It’s ridiculous so Sunak hangs on because they hold onto Tees Valley . Talk about putting the smallest of hurdles to overcome to then proclaim victory .

    Yep. Glorious. A swing so vast that it will demolish every Teesside Tory bar Houchen. And thus the Tory government. And Ben himself gets to face the coming NAO then police investigations into Teesport...
    Why was there such a huge swing between 2017 and 2021?
    My TLDR to that is that a lot of promises were made, which the current Govt failed to deliver, following an expression pride in failing to deliver, and a circling of wagons around old refuges.

    My take is that there existed an opportunity to create a new centre right voter coalition (including for example the Red Wall), but following a failure to do so, and cynicism about that failure, a whirlwind is being reaped.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    Someone has snorted too many lines of Colombian sherbert
    I'd absolutely LMAO if they won London, but that seems delusional.
    It’s the bunker scene in Downfall on steroids level delusional. They are suggesting one of the biggest polling misfires in history.
    If only Corbyn (the less loony one) had run, maybe Hall would have been in with a chance.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,824

    Labour now saying London will be 'very very close'

    Bullshit.

    Why do parties engage in this sort of expectations management?
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,992
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood

    CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.

    As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.

    *strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.

    We shall see. If they have won London, Rishi will be off to the Palace to call the election on Tuesday if he's got any sense.
    Hall might well beat Khan if turnout is low. The anti-Khan vote is very motivated. But there are also London Assembly elections. Labour will win those.

  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,081
    Swinney says on Newsnight no new deal with the Greens, will govern as a minority government.
This discussion has been closed.