I was late completing my postal vote today so handed it in at the polling station. I was therefore able to vote in person without voter ID.
And for anyone wondering which way to cast their vote today, here’s a bit of context for why your local council services have gone to shit. From the HoC library.
(Lucky Isles of Scilly)
[obviously this has no impact on council finances, oh no. The Tory government bears no responsibility at all. It’s all about equal pay claims]
And here for completeness is the funding curve from 2010 until 2018.
Are we going to spend all day banging on about the results from today's elections despite the fact that we won't know them until tomorrow? 😀
I will make one prediction. At least one party will be cheered by the result and at least one disappointed. Ok, that's two predictions... ☹️
Time to bang on about the weather again instead:
20mm of rain here since midnight. I think it might have stopped now but it's hard to tell as cloudbase seems to be at about 75m ASL and our house is 86m.
Could this become one of those 'years without a summer'?
Are we going to spend all day banging on about the results from today's elections despite the fact that we won't know them until tomorrow? 😀
I will make one prediction. At least one party will be cheered by the result and at least one disappointed. Ok, that's two predictions... ☹️
Time to bang on about the weather again instead:
20mm of rain here since midnight. I think it might have stopped now but it's hard to tell as cloudbase seems to be at about 75m ASL and our house is 86m.
Could this become one of those 'years without a summer'?
Glorious here. Its Norwich though, so better than anywhere that isn't
Are we going to spend all day banging on about the results from today's elections despite the fact that we won't know them until tomorrow? 😀
I will make one prediction. At least one party will be cheered by the result and at least one disappointed. Ok, that's two predictions... ☹️
Time to bang on about the weather again instead:
20mm of rain here since midnight. I think it might have stopped now but it's hard to tell as cloudbase seems to be at about 75m ASL and our house is 86m.
Could this become one of those 'years without a summer'?
Bit early, it’s only May.
Incidentally, in news that will flummox readers, the mean Central England Temperature for April just gone was 1.7C warmer than average.
Are we going to spend all day banging on about the results from today's elections despite the fact that we won't know them until tomorrow? 😀
I will make one prediction. At least one party will be cheered by the result and at least one disappointed. Ok, that's two predictions... ☹️
Time to bang on about the weather again instead:
20mm of rain here since midnight. I think it might have stopped now but it's hard to tell as cloudbase seems to be at about 75m ASL and our house is 86m.
Could this become one of those 'years without a summer'?
Bit early, it’s only May.
Yeah, I know, just a bit depressed as it's gone on too long now.
I suspect there's more chance of a record-breaking hot summer as we're bound to have a long spell of high-pressure at some stage. I look forward to Leon telling us how millions will die in bubbling tarmac as UK temperatures reach 60°C.
Are we going to spend all day banging on about the results from today's elections despite the fact that we won't know them until tomorrow? 😀
I will make one prediction. At least one party will be cheered by the result and at least one disappointed. Ok, that's two predictions... ☹️
Time to bang on about the weather again instead:
20mm of rain here since midnight. I think it might have stopped now but it's hard to tell as cloudbase seems to be at about 75m ASL and our house is 86m.
Could this become one of those 'years without a summer'?
Talking about banging on there was pelting rain and lightning and rolling thunder (not that one!). Did everybody else have it?
Are we going to spend all day banging on about the results from today's elections despite the fact that we won't know them until tomorrow? 😀
I will make one prediction. At least one party will be cheered by the result and at least one disappointed. Ok, that's two predictions... ☹️
Time to bang on about the weather again instead:
20mm of rain here since midnight. I think it might have stopped now but it's hard to tell as cloudbase seems to be at about 75m ASL and our house is 86m.
Could this become one of those 'years without a summer'?
Bit early, it’s only May.
Incidentally, in news that will flummox readers, the mean Central England Temperature for April just gone was 1.7C warmer than average.
Very mild start and cloudy nights. Virtually frostless. I reckon maxima were only a fraction above average
Are we going to spend all day banging on about the results from today's elections despite the fact that we won't know them until tomorrow? 😀
I will make one prediction. At least one party will be cheered by the result and at least one disappointed. Ok, that's two predictions... ☹️
Time to bang on about the weather again instead:
20mm of rain here since midnight. I think it might have stopped now but it's hard to tell as cloudbase seems to be at about 75m ASL and our house is 86m.
Could this become one of those 'years without a summer'?
Bit early, it’s only May.
Incidentally, in news that will flummox readers, the mean Central England Temperature for April just gone was 1.7C warmer than average.
2nd warmest year ever to the end of April, and also the wettest to the end of April since records began.
Are we going to spend all day banging on about the results from today's elections despite the fact that we won't know them until tomorrow? 😀
I will make one prediction. At least one party will be cheered by the result and at least one disappointed. Ok, that's two predictions... ☹️
Time to bang on about the weather again instead:
20mm of rain here since midnight. I think it might have stopped now but it's hard to tell as cloudbase seems to be at about 75m ASL and our house is 86m.
Could this become one of those 'years without a summer'?
Bit early, it’s only May.
Yeah, I know, just a bit depressed as it's gone on too long now.
I suspect there's more chance of a record-breaking hot summer as we're bound to have a long spell of high-pressure at some stage. I look forward to Leon telling us how millions will die in bubbling tarmac as UK temperatures reach 60°C.
A model run showing all Grandads being forced to remove their tank top and stop Gardening by 11.30 is needed
– Trailed by 20+% in 3 of 5 trackers – Seen Conservatives fall to their lowest Voting Intention % with Sunak as PM in 3 of 5 trackers – Seen his own approval rating fall to -20% or worse in ALL 5 trackers
And yet Trump's lead is increasing again. The Q1 growth figures were disappointing. Inflation is proving persistent. The border issues are not getting any better and the Campus protests, mainly against Israel, are causing problems. Biden is in trouble. Trump showed in 2016 he could win whilst behind in the popular vote. Biden has a lot of catching up to do and, so far, the NY trial is not moving the dial.
It is in margin of error. There is no verdict yet in the NY trial so obviously that won't move the dial until verdicts in and if convictions, at least with Independents.
The Democrats will also benefit this year from their convention being last as the incumbent party which will likely give them a bounce for Biden into September and the campaign proper.
Remember at this stage in previous elections challengers like Romney, Kerry and even Dukakis all had poll leads over the incumbent President or VP but all lost
The man has already been found guilty of 9 contempts of court. Our PM was in serious trouble when he got a distinctly dodgy (because of time bar issues) fixed penalty. Starmer said he would resign if he got one.
It is just bizarre. If he is convicted he will simply complain that a Manhattan jury and judge had it in for him and he will, of course, appeal which will take it beyond the election. Biden needs a game changer and this trial is not it.
And Boris was still polling above where Rishi is now even after partygate fines.
However he did lose some swing voters and Trump will likely lose some Independents if convicted (and given his lack of remorse and contempt for the judge he could yet be jailed if found guilty).
Being last in the conventions will also help Biden, remember even McCain Palin took the lead in September 2008 after their convention until the Lehmans collapse and debates saw Obama home.
If polls in May were accurate guides to Presidential election winners we would have had President Kerry and President Romney
Are we going to spend all day banging on about the results from today's elections despite the fact that we won't know them until tomorrow? 😀
I will make one prediction. At least one party will be cheered by the result and at least one disappointed. Ok, that's two predictions... ☹️
Time to bang on about the weather again instead:
20mm of rain here since midnight. I think it might have stopped now but it's hard to tell as cloudbase seems to be at about 75m ASL and our house is 86m.
Could this become one of those 'years without a summer'?
Talking about banging on there was pelting rain and lightning and rolling thunder (not that one!). Did everybody else have it?
Are we going to spend all day banging on about the results from today's elections despite the fact that we won't know them until tomorrow? 😀
I will make one prediction. At least one party will be cheered by the result and at least one disappointed. Ok, that's two predictions... ☹️
Time to bang on about the weather again instead:
20mm of rain here since midnight. I think it might have stopped now but it's hard to tell as cloudbase seems to be at about 75m ASL and our house is 86m.
Could this become one of those 'years without a summer'?
Glorious here. Its Norwich though, so better than anywhere that isn't
Are we going to spend all day banging on about the results from today's elections despite the fact that we won't know them until tomorrow? 😀
I will make one prediction. At least one party will be cheered by the result and at least one disappointed. Ok, that's two predictions... ☹️
Time to bang on about the weather again instead:
20mm of rain here since midnight. I think it might have stopped now but it's hard to tell as cloudbase seems to be at about 75m ASL and our house is 86m.
Could this become one of those 'years without a summer'?
Talking about banging on there was pelting rain and lightning and rolling thunder (not that one!). Did everybody else have it?
Nope. God is not angry with Norvicensians
He's punished you enough, perhaps?
(Puts on sunglasses, turns to camera, Who on the soundtrack...😎 )
And yet Trump's lead is increasing again. The Q1 growth figures were disappointing. Inflation is proving persistent. The border issues are not getting any better and the Campus protests, mainly against Israel, are causing problems. Biden is in trouble. Trump showed in 2016 he could win whilst behind in the popular vote. Biden has a lot of catching up to do and, so far, the NY trial is not moving the dial.
It is in margin of error. There is no verdict yet in the NY trial so obviously that won't move the dial until verdicts in and if convictions, at least with Independents.
The Democrats will also benefit this year from their convention being last as the incumbent party which will likely give them a bounce for Biden into September and the campaign proper.
Remember at this stage in previous elections challengers like Romney, Kerry and even Dukakis all had poll leads over the incumbent President or VP but all lost
On the other hand, the fact that Trump's small lead is so stable is a warning that the polls may remain pretty stable. These men are 2 very well-known quantities where most people have already made up their minds (unlike with all the challengers you mention). I'm not sure even a conviction in the hush money trial is going to make a big difference. And a tie in the national vote (or even sub 2% Biden lead), would probably give the presidency to Trump in the electoral college. I make them both slightly over evens, but if pushed I would say Trump is slight favourite.
I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that the polls weren’t static but that the graphs showed a steadily downward trend in Conservative support. I was once again vilified for the suggestion but your post @Scott_xP bears it out. The Conservatives lost 2% in March and it looks as if the trend is continuing, with a Reform crossover by no means impossible.
That Reform are only fielding 300 candidates in the locals should make us additionally wary about reading too much into the results.
Quite how this continuing slide feeds into Moon Rabbit’s assertions to the contrary I have no idea.
Not vilification. Mockery.
I've picked out all the polls for April for a couple of polling companies, and they show no trend at all for April.
You are willing to point to single data points to make a point (Tory support only looks like it is still going down in the YouGov graph because of the anchoring effect of the final data point, which might be an outlier as much as it might be part of a trend) but when I've looked at more data that shows a contrary picture you completely ignore it.
You can't be taken seriously as an analyst of the data.
There are plenty of us willing to wear our dunces hats when we make mistakes, or are temporarily overcome by our partisan bias. Why not join us? A bit of humility is good for the soul.
Depends on the time frame.
Obviously, the weekly pluses and minuses don't need explanation by anyone- they are nearly all just noise- but how far do you have to step back to see a trend?
I suspect a month isn't really enough, either. Go to a larger scale, and the Conservatives have been trending down for the best part of a year; either side of 25% this time last year, more like 20% now, in a fairly straight line.
Anyone tried correlating that with the number of Conservative voters having to remortgage?
Back of a Voter ID estimate:
I think @Sandpit said yesterday that about 1 million voters (1/2 million mortgages) would get hit by remortgaging in the next six months, so that's 2 million a year.
That's 20% of ten million, which is about the proportion of the Conservative vote that has gone elsewhere.
OK, the flawed assumption is that all mortgage payers vote Conservative, but that's uncanny.
If that is what's going on... oh dear.
There were 1.1m remortgages last year, so roughly 100k a month. Assuming that holds for this year, there’s half a million more to come between now and a suggested October election, almost all of which will have been taken out when rates were on the floor. So half a million households, call it a million adults on average, plus parents and adult children who will have heard about it if not directly affected.
One of these is my brother, who with his wife have a £500k mortgage. Off the top of my head, his payment will go from something like £1,800 a month, to £3,800 a month. So he needs to find two grand extra a month, just to keep the bank happy. There’s going to be a lot of forced sellers in that position, and a lot more who really have to cut back the discretionary savings.
As Reagan famously said, are you better off today than you were four years ago? With the inflation and interest rate rises in recent memory, the answer for millions of people is a resounding ‘no’, irrespective of how good the headline economic statistics look this month. Incumbents everywhere are in trouble, with Sunak and Biden no exception.
I also see the oil price back above $90 last month, which will only be making things worse, and is a great indicator to Western leaders of how important it is for Ukraine to win the war.
I was late completing my postal vote today so handed it in at the polling station. I was therefore able to vote in person without voter ID.
And for anyone wondering which way to cast their vote today, here’s a bit of context for why your local council services have gone to shit. From the HoC library.
(Lucky Isles of Scilly)
[obviously this has no impact on council finances, oh no. The Tory government bears no responsibility at all. It’s all about equal pay claims]
And here for completeness is the funding curve from 2010 until 2018.
Sadly I can't vote in person as I'm about to board a flight for California but my lovely wife is doing a proxy vote for the brilliant Sadiq at the Telegraph Hill Centre today on my behalf. Good luck to all Labour candidates today.
Are we going to spend all day banging on about the results from today's elections despite the fact that we won't know them until tomorrow? 😀
I will make one prediction. At least one party will be cheered by the result and at least one disappointed. Ok, that's two predictions... ☹️
Time to bang on about the weather again instead:
20mm of rain here since midnight. I think it might have stopped now but it's hard to tell as cloudbase seems to be at about 75m ASL and our house is 86m.
Could this become one of those 'years without a summer'?
Talking about banging on there was pelting rain and lightning and rolling thunder (not that one!). Did everybody else have it?
Nope. God is not angry with Norvicensians
He's punished you enough, perhaps?
(Puts on sunglasses, turns to camera, Who on the soundtrack...😎 )
Are we going to spend all day banging on about the results from today's elections despite the fact that we won't know them until tomorrow? 😀
I will make one prediction. At least one party will be cheered by the result and at least one disappointed. Ok, that's two predictions... ☹️
Time to bang on about the weather again instead:
20mm of rain here since midnight. I think it might have stopped now but it's hard to tell as cloudbase seems to be at about 75m ASL and our house is 86m.
Could this become one of those 'years without a summer'?
Glorious here. Its Norwich though, so better than anywhere that isn't
Peeing down in Cheltenham, but could be worse.
Could be Manchester.
Peeing down in Dubai, so don’t worry you’re not alone!
On today's elections I expect a poor night for the conservatives, a reasonable night for labour, but for the lib dems to do very well, far exceeding their own poll ratings
I expect Reform will be a damp squid
The fall out for Sunak is anyone's guess but frankly there is little the conservatives can do but to roll in behind him as the Mail says today as there is nobody else who could change the narrative or outcome for the party
And yet Trump's lead is increasing again. The Q1 growth figures were disappointing. Inflation is proving persistent. The border issues are not getting any better and the Campus protests, mainly against Israel, are causing problems. Biden is in trouble. Trump showed in 2016 he could win whilst behind in the popular vote. Biden has a lot of catching up to do and, so far, the NY trial is not moving the dial.
It is in margin of error. There is no verdict yet in the NY trial so obviously that won't move the dial until verdicts in and if convictions, at least with Independents.
The Democrats will also benefit this year from their convention being last as the incumbent party which will likely give them a bounce for Biden into September and the campaign proper.
Remember at this stage in previous elections challengers like Romney, Kerry and even Dukakis all had poll leads over the incumbent President or VP but all lost
The man has already been found guilty of 9 contempts of court. Our PM was in serious trouble when he got a distinctly dodgy (because of time bar issues) fixed penalty. Starmer said he would resign if he got one.
It is just bizarre. If he is convicted he will simply complain that a Manhattan jury and judge had it in for him and he will, of course, appeal which will take it beyond the election. Biden needs a game changer and this trial is not it.
And Boris was still polling above where Rishi is now even after partygate fines.
However he did lose some swing voters and Trump will likely lose some Independents if convicted (and given his lack of remorse and contempt for the judge he could yet be jailed if found guilty).
Being last in the conventions will also help Biden, remember even McCain Palin took the lead in September 2008 after their convention until the Lehmans collapse and debates saw Obama home.
If polls in May were accurate guides to Presidential election winners we would have had President Kerry and President Romney
On today's elections I expect a poor night for the conservatives, a reasonable night for labour, but for the lib dems to do very well, far exceeding their own poll ratings
I expect Reform will be a damp squid
The fall out for Sunak is anyone's guess but frankly there is little the conservatives can do but to roll in behind him as the Mail says today as there is nobody else who could change the narrative or outcome for the party
On today's elections I expect a poor night for the conservatives, a reasonable night for labour, but for the lib dems to do very well, far exceeding their own poll ratings
I expect Reform will be a damp squid
The fall out for Sunak is anyone's guess but frankly there is little the conservatives can do but to roll in behind him as the Mail says today as there is nobody else who could change the narrative or outcome for the party
Get Penny in. Bank the Lad's Dads vote
The only way they could do that is for Sunak to stand aside and the party grant a coronation to Penny
Are we going to spend all day banging on about the results from today's elections despite the fact that we won't know them until tomorrow? 😀
I will make one prediction. At least one party will be cheered by the result and at least one disappointed. Ok, that's two predictions... ☹️
Time to bang on about the weather again instead:
20mm of rain here since midnight. I think it might have stopped now but it's hard to tell as cloudbase seems to be at about 75m ASL and our house is 86m.
Could this become one of those 'years without a summer'?
Bit early, it’s only May.
Incidentally, in news that will flummox readers, the mean Central England Temperature for April just gone was 1.7C warmer than average.
Very mild start and cloudy nights. Virtually frostless. I reckon maxima were only a fraction above average
Maxima anomaly 2.27 (I make it 7.53, HADCET officially lists it as 7.55C ytd so far) Mean anomaly 2.25 Minima anomaly 2.23
Comparison with Extreme Annual CETs:- The highest annual min CET ever recorded was 7.24, which is 1.39 higher than normal. To beat this record the anomaly must be higher than 0.98 for the remainder of this year
The highest annual mean CET ever recorded was 11.15, which is 1.68 higher than normal. To beat this record the anomaly must be higher than 1.4 for the remainder of this year
Comparison with Extreme Annual CETs:- The highest annual max CET ever recorded was 15.32, which is 2.23 higher than normal. To beat this record the anomaly must be higher than 2.21 for the remainder of this year.
2007 was the only warmer year to this point, thanks in part to an amazingly mild April (11.25 average)
I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that the polls weren’t static but that the graphs showed a steadily downward trend in Conservative support. I was once again vilified for the suggestion but your post @Scott_xP bears it out. The Conservatives lost 2% in March and it looks as if the trend is continuing, with a Reform crossover by no means impossible.
That Reform are only fielding 300 candidates in the locals should make us additionally wary about reading too much into the results.
Quite how this continuing slide feeds into Moon Rabbit’s assertions to the contrary I have no idea.
Not vilification. Mockery.
I've picked out all the polls for April for a couple of polling companies, and they show no trend at all for April.
You are willing to point to single data points to make a point (Tory support only looks like it is still going down in the YouGov graph because of the anchoring effect of the final data point, which might be an outlier as much as it might be part of a trend) but when I've looked at more data that shows a contrary picture you completely ignore it.
You can't be taken seriously as an analyst of the data.
There are plenty of us willing to wear our dunces hats when we make mistakes, or are temporarily overcome by our partisan bias. Why not join us? A bit of humility is good for the soul.
Depends on the time frame.
Obviously, the weekly pluses and minuses don't need explanation by anyone- they are nearly all just noise- but how far do you have to step back to see a trend?
I suspect a month isn't really enough, either. Go to a larger scale, and the Conservatives have been trending down for the best part of a year; either side of 25% this time last year, more like 20% now, in a fairly straight line.
Anyone tried correlating that with the number of Conservative voters having to remortgage?
Back of a Voter ID estimate:
I think @Sandpit said yesterday that about 1 million voters (1/2 million mortgages) would get hit by remortgaging in the next six months, so that's 2 million a year.
That's 20% of ten million, which is about the proportion of the Conservative vote that has gone elsewhere.
OK, the flawed assumption is that all mortgage payers vote Conservative, but that's uncanny.
If that is what's going on... oh dear.
There were 1.1m remortgages last year, so roughly 100k a month. Assuming that holds for this year, there’s half a million more to come between now and a suggested October election, almost all of which will have been taken out when rates were on the floor. So half a million households, call it a million adults on average, plus parents and adult children who will have heard about it if not directly affected.
One of these is my brother, who with his wife have a £500k mortgage. Off the top of my head, his payment will go from something like £1,800 a month, to £3,800 a month. So he needs to find two grand extra a month, just to keep the bank happy. There’s going to be a lot of forced sellers in that position, and a lot more who really have to cut back the discretionary savings.
As Reagan famously said, are you better off today than you were four years ago? With the inflation and interest rate rises in recent memory, the answer for millions of people is a resounding ‘no’, irrespective of how good the headline economic statistics look this month. Incumbents everywhere are in trouble, with Sunak and Biden no exception.
I also see the oil price back above $90 last month, which will only be making things worse, and is a great indicator to Western leaders of how important it is for Ukraine to win the war.
How much has the value of the house increased by since the £500k mortgage was taken out ?
Ultimately those house price rises have consequences.
FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.
No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’
Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.
But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?
I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.
If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.
Think on these things.
Let's have some context here. You are faking offence over a comment which was part of a string of posts which called out a racist trope you made about the PM and your racist trope was not only unacceptable but it united people across the political divide in their condemnation.
You were in a hole, you should have stopped digging, you should not have doubled down.
This forum should want to attract women and young people. It should not seek to attract racists.
To be honest I think an apology from @Heathener would be appropriate following her widely condemned and, as you say right across the political divide, for her uncalled for comments about Sunak
You can attack Sunak over many things but racism is not one
Yes, I agree with you. I think an apology would have just put it all to bed and moved on. But she just doubled down and went on the attack.
It unified posters across the political divide here in their condemnation. A rarity.
Heathener is a sanctimonious pain in the arse but we don't know that they are incorrect. People just want them cancelled for wrongthink.
Interesting. She (not "they" but I see what you did there) used an age-old racist trope invoking and identifying the other in British society.
She that second or third (or?) generation immigrant, Southampton-born Old Wykehamist Sunak "belongs to that old Indian businessman mentality of Master-Slave, spuriously justified on the basis of caste but really nothing more than dog-eats-dog."
And that she found this "profoundly un-British."
Now without going all Foucault on that statement it is one that can with little effort be adapted to cast nasturtiums on everyone and anyone of immigrant stock - stupid paddies, mean jews/scots, whatever. She said he was thereby un-British, which forbids any immigrant from becoming British. It suggests there are essentially British values unattainable to those of immigrant descent.
So is she incorrect? Is the "old Indian businessman mentality of Master-Slave" what is driving Sunak to see British poor people as lesser than he is. People are a product of their environment and their own history and I get that, whether it be Rishi Sunak, JRM or Arthur Scargill. Maybe he grew up in a family which each day drilled into him that he was a master and others were slaves and they did this because they are products of the Indian caste system. Who knows.
It is the fact that she said that all this was un-British that is the issue. Who the fuck is she to say what is or isn't British. Any more than Tommy Robinson is. Or if she wants to fine, but she then takes her place amongst all the racists who also do this.
I have no idea why she did it but perhaps she believes that as she has so many black and brown and archbishop friends, she can make such statements.
I was late completing my postal vote today so handed it in at the polling station. I was therefore able to vote in person without voter ID.
And for anyone wondering which way to cast their vote today, here’s a bit of context for why your local council services have gone to shit. From the HoC library.
(Lucky Isles of Scilly)
[obviously this has no impact on council finances, oh no. The Tory government bears no responsibility at all. It’s all about equal pay claims]
And here for completeness is the funding curve from 2010 until 2018.
Sadly I can't vote in person as I'm about to board a flight for California but my lovely wife is doing a proxy vote for the brilliant Sadiq at the Telegraph Hill Centre today on my behalf. Good luck to all Labour candidates today.
Mine was at the Lewisham Arthouse. Always a good opportunity to snoop around quasi-civic buildings.
Are we going to spend all day banging on about the results from today's elections despite the fact that we won't know them until tomorrow? 😀
I will make one prediction. At least one party will be cheered by the result and at least one disappointed. Ok, that's two predictions... ☹️
Time to bang on about the weather again instead:
20mm of rain here since midnight. I think it might have stopped now but it's hard to tell as cloudbase seems to be at about 75m ASL and our house is 86m.
Could this become one of those 'years without a summer'?
Bit early, it’s only May.
Incidentally, in news that will flummox readers, the mean Central England Temperature for April just gone was 1.7C warmer than average.
Very mild start and cloudy nights. Virtually frostless. I reckon maxima were only a fraction above average
Maxima anomaly 2.27 (I make it 7.53, HADCET officially lists it as 7.55C ytd so far) Mean anomaly 2.25 Minima anomaly 2.23
Comparison with Extreme Annual CETs:- The highest annual min CET ever recorded was 7.24, which is 1.39 higher than normal. To beat this record the anomaly must be higher than 0.98 for the remainder of this year
The highest annual mean CET ever recorded was 11.15, which is 1.68 higher than normal. To beat this record the anomaly must be higher than 1.4 for the remainder of this year
Comparison with Extreme Annual CETs:- The highest annual max CET ever recorded was 15.32, which is 2.23 higher than normal. To beat this record the anomaly must be higher than 2.21 for the remainder of this year.
2007 was the only warmer year to this point, thanks in part to an amazingly mild April (11.25 average)
I was referring to April isolation, agree ytd is out there
Are we going to spend all day banging on about the results from today's elections despite the fact that we won't know them until tomorrow? 😀
I will make one prediction. At least one party will be cheered by the result and at least one disappointed. Ok, that's two predictions... ☹️
Time to bang on about the weather again instead:
20mm of rain here since midnight. I think it might have stopped now but it's hard to tell as cloudbase seems to be at about 75m ASL and our house is 86m.
Could this become one of those 'years without a summer'?
Talking about banging on there was pelting rain and lightning and rolling thunder (not that one!). Did everybody else have it?
Yes, in north London, amazing thunder. Woke me up.
Anyway, I have been to vote! Voting was steady (i.e. someone came in as me and my flatmate left). Just one Labour teller. I am supremely confident that two of my votes will not be for the winning candidate.
FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.
No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’
Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.
But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?
I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.
If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.
Think on these things.
Let's have some context here. You are faking offence over a comment which was part of a string of posts which called out a racist trope you made about the PM and your racist trope was not only unacceptable but it united people across the political divide in their condemnation.
You were in a hole, you should have stopped digging, you should not have doubled down.
This forum should want to attract women and young people. It should not seek to attract racists.
To be honest I think an apology from @Heathener would be appropriate following her widely condemned and, as you say right across the political divide, for her uncalled for comments about Sunak
You can attack Sunak over many things but racism is not one
Yes, I agree with you. I think an apology would have just put it all to bed and moved on. But she just doubled down and went on the attack.
It unified posters across the political divide here in their condemnation. A rarity.
Heathener is a sanctimonious pain in the arse but we don't know that they are incorrect. People just want them cancelled for wrongthink.
I genuinely believe @Heathener might be a marvellous comic creation. The outright racism was a brilliant move, and now the sudden.effrontery at being called “my luv”? Superb
Also she actually used the word bricolage - in italics like that - and she claims to keep boiled water in a thermos
They is a genius sock puppet and I salute the puppeteer
Oh god I think you might be right and as we speak there are three frat boys high-fiving that "she" is giving us all the run-around.
I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that the polls weren’t static but that the graphs showed a steadily downward trend in Conservative support. I was once again vilified for the suggestion but your post @Scott_xP bears it out. The Conservatives lost 2% in March and it looks as if the trend is continuing, with a Reform crossover by no means impossible.
That Reform are only fielding 300 candidates in the locals should make us additionally wary about reading too much into the results.
Quite how this continuing slide feeds into Moon Rabbit’s assertions to the contrary I have no idea.
Not vilification. Mockery.
I've picked out all the polls for April for a couple of polling companies, and they show no trend at all for April.
You are willing to point to single data points to make a point (Tory support only looks like it is still going down in the YouGov graph because of the anchoring effect of the final data point, which might be an outlier as much as it might be part of a trend) but when I've looked at more data that shows a contrary picture you completely ignore it.
You can't be taken seriously as an analyst of the data.
There are plenty of us willing to wear our dunces hats when we make mistakes, or are temporarily overcome by our partisan bias. Why not join us? A bit of humility is good for the soul.
Depends on the time frame.
Obviously, the weekly pluses and minuses don't need explanation by anyone- they are nearly all just noise- but how far do you have to step back to see a trend?
I suspect a month isn't really enough, either. Go to a larger scale, and the Conservatives have been trending down for the best part of a year; either side of 25% this time last year, more like 20% now, in a fairly straight line.
Anyone tried correlating that with the number of Conservative voters having to remortgage?
Back of a Voter ID estimate:
I think @Sandpit said yesterday that about 1 million voters (1/2 million mortgages) would get hit by remortgaging in the next six months, so that's 2 million a year.
That's 20% of ten million, which is about the proportion of the Conservative vote that has gone elsewhere.
OK, the flawed assumption is that all mortgage payers vote Conservative, but that's uncanny.
If that is what's going on... oh dear.
There were 1.1m remortgages last year, so roughly 100k a month. Assuming that holds for this year, there’s half a million more to come between now and a suggested October election, almost all of which will have been taken out when rates were on the floor. So half a million households, call it a million adults on average, plus parents and adult children who will have heard about it if not directly affected.
One of these is my brother, who with his wife have a £500k mortgage. Off the top of my head, his payment will go from something like £1,800 a month, to £3,800 a month. So he needs to find two grand extra a month, just to keep the bank happy. There’s going to be a lot of forced sellers in that position, and a lot more who really have to cut back the discretionary savings.
As Reagan famously said, are you better off today than you were four years ago? With the inflation and interest rate rises in recent memory, the answer for millions of people is a resounding ‘no’, irrespective of how good the headline economic statistics look this month. Incumbents everywhere are in trouble, with Sunak and Biden no exception.
I also see the oil price back above $90 last month, which will only be making things worse, and is a great indicator to Western leaders of how important it is for Ukraine to win the war.
Quite.
The mortgage thing is a slow moving timebomb in which every month more and more voters come off their old deals and find their costs doubling. Mine is due March next year and I doubt I'll escape it.
Sunak crowing that he's brought inflation down to 3.whatever percent means absolutely cock all to me and anyone else with a mortgage whose monthly costs are about to double.
From a business perspective, every company I know is either doing layoffs or hiring freezes. Investment postponed indefinitely - all in survival mode.
On today's elections I expect a poor night for the conservatives, a reasonable night for labour, but for the lib dems to do very well, far exceeding their own poll ratings
I expect Reform will be a damp squid
The fall out for Sunak is anyone's guess but frankly there is little the conservatives can do but to roll in behind him as the Mail says today as there is nobody else who could change the narrative or outcome for the party
Get Penny in. Bank the Lad's Dads vote
The only way they could do that is for Sunak to stand aside and the party grant a coronation to Penny
I just do not see it
you're right, I was just having a sword maiden moment
FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.
No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’
Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.
But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?
I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.
If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.
Think on these things.
Let's have some context here. You are faking offence over a comment which was part of a string of posts which called out a racist trope you made about the PM and your racist trope was not only unacceptable but it united people across the political divide in their condemnation.
You were in a hole, you should have stopped digging, you should not have doubled down.
This forum should want to attract women and young people. It should not seek to attract racists.
To be honest I think an apology from @Heathener would be appropriate following her widely condemned and, as you say right across the political divide, for her uncalled for comments about Sunak
You can attack Sunak over many things but racism is not one
Yes, I agree with you. I think an apology would have just put it all to bed and moved on. But she just doubled down and went on the attack.
It unified posters across the political divide here in their condemnation. A rarity.
Heathener is a sanctimonious pain in the arse but we don't know that they are incorrect. People just want them cancelled for wrongthink.
I genuinely believe @Heathener might be a marvellous comic creation. The outright racism was a brilliant move, and now the sudden.effrontery at being called “my luv”? Superb
Also she actually used the word bricolage - in italics like that - and she claims to keep boiled water in a thermos
They is a genius sock puppet and I salute the puppeteer
Oh god I think you might be right and as we speak there are three frat boys high-fiving that "she" is giving us all the run-around.
Ah well, at least we can snigger at the tall stories
Are we going to spend all day banging on about the results from today's elections despite the fact that we won't know them until tomorrow? 😀
I will make one prediction. At least one party will be cheered by the result and at least one disappointed. Ok, that's two predictions... ☹️
Time to bang on about the weather again instead:
20mm of rain here since midnight. I think it might have stopped now but it's hard to tell as cloudbase seems to be at about 75m ASL and our house is 86m.
Could this become one of those 'years without a summer'?
Talking about banging on there was pelting rain and lightning and rolling thunder (not that one!). Did everybody else have it?
We had spectacular lightning without thunder or rain for sometime, then it chucked it down. The dog was annoyed. Didn't seem frightened, but went into protect mode, letting us know something was up. Wanted to open the blinds to watch, but suspected he would have barked more at it.
Had a glossy leaflet drop through the letterbox yesterday about the shiny new East Midlands Combined Authority Mayor sent by officers of the same.
The first couple of pages were taken up with how to get a postal vote. Given the leaflet arrived some time after the deadline to apply for a postal vote, it didn't immediately impress me with the competency of those running said combined authority.
There was a page about voter ID, listing all the acceptable forms, and also some stuff on how to fill in the ballot paper (fair enough).
Then it was on to the real meat of the publication, pages from each candidate. Based on their ability to send in artwork at the correct resolution and format, this was a clear win for the Tories, Reform and the Independent, and a particularly poor effort by the Green (quite badly pixelated).
Moving on to policy, we got large helpings of motherhood and apple pie (virtually everyone is apparently going to fix the potholes - the independent's text implying his skillset was to go off and personally start shoveling tarmac). Allmost all of them want more government money to spend on local transport etc etc. It wasn't really possible to gauge what the independent was intending to do, other than be independent. That possibly cost him my vote - if he'd actually got some policies (beyond fixing potholes) I would have at least considered if he might be suitable. The only person with an agenda beyond motherhood, apple pie and more government money was the Refom candidate, who devoted his page to saying he thought the combined authority is a stupid idea nobody other than politicians wanted and he would like to abolish it. I suspect he's a loon (a quick Google suggests he's a "colourful" character , but on the basis that I entirely agree with him about the pointlessness of it all, I think he's getting my vote.
I was late completing my postal vote today so handed it in at the polling station. I was therefore able to vote in person without voter ID.
And for anyone wondering which way to cast their vote today, here’s a bit of context for why your local council services have gone to shit. From the HoC library.
(Lucky Isles of Scilly)
[obviously this has no impact on council finances, oh no. The Tory government bears no responsibility at all. It’s all about equal pay claims]
And here for completeness is the funding curve from 2010 until 2018.
Sadly I can't vote in person as I'm about to board a flight for California but my lovely wife is doing a proxy vote for the brilliant Sadiq at the Telegraph Hill Centre today on my behalf. Good luck to all Labour candidates today.
Mine was at the Lewisham Arthouse. Always a good opportunity to snoop around quasi-civic buildings.
Church for me. The one we've just donated some neat little 'bonsai' type hedges to. So it'll be a vote for Sadiq, the great Labour candidate in this great Labour city, then a walk in the grounds to go look at them. Just hope the rain holds off.
Are we going to spend all day banging on about the results from today's elections despite the fact that we won't know them until tomorrow? 😀
I will make one prediction. At least one party will be cheered by the result and at least one disappointed. Ok, that's two predictions... ☹️
Time to bang on about the weather again instead:
20mm of rain here since midnight. I think it might have stopped now but it's hard to tell as cloudbase seems to be at about 75m ASL and our house is 86m.
Could this become one of those 'years without a summer'?
Bit early, it’s only May.
Incidentally, in news that will flummox readers, the mean Central England Temperature for April just gone was 1.7C warmer than average.
Very mild start and cloudy nights. Virtually frostless. I reckon maxima were only a fraction above average
Maxima anomaly 2.27 (I make it 7.53, HADCET officially lists it as 7.55C ytd so far) Mean anomaly 2.25 Minima anomaly 2.23
Comparison with Extreme Annual CETs:- The highest annual min CET ever recorded was 7.24, which is 1.39 higher than normal. To beat this record the anomaly must be higher than 0.98 for the remainder of this year
The highest annual mean CET ever recorded was 11.15, which is 1.68 higher than normal. To beat this record the anomaly must be higher than 1.4 for the remainder of this year
Comparison with Extreme Annual CETs:- The highest annual max CET ever recorded was 15.32, which is 2.23 higher than normal. To beat this record the anomaly must be higher than 2.21 for the remainder of this year.
2007 was the only warmer year to this point, thanks in part to an amazingly mild April (11.25 average)
I was referring to April isolation, agree ytd is out there
April ranks as 30th (Mean) since 1772 for temperature overall.
I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that the polls weren’t static but that the graphs showed a steadily downward trend in Conservative support. I was once again vilified for the suggestion but your post @Scott_xP bears it out. The Conservatives lost 2% in March and it looks as if the trend is continuing, with a Reform crossover by no means impossible.
That Reform are only fielding 300 candidates in the locals should make us additionally wary about reading too much into the results.
Quite how this continuing slide feeds into Moon Rabbit’s assertions to the contrary I have no idea.
Not vilification. Mockery.
I've picked out all the polls for April for a couple of polling companies, and they show no trend at all for April.
You are willing to point to single data points to make a point (Tory support only looks like it is still going down in the YouGov graph because of the anchoring effect of the final data point, which might be an outlier as much as it might be part of a trend) but when I've looked at more data that shows a contrary picture you completely ignore it.
You can't be taken seriously as an analyst of the data.
There are plenty of us willing to wear our dunces hats when we make mistakes, or are temporarily overcome by our partisan bias. Why not join us? A bit of humility is good for the soul.
Depends on the time frame.
Obviously, the weekly pluses and minuses don't need explanation by anyone- they are nearly all just noise- but how far do you have to step back to see a trend?
I suspect a month isn't really enough, either. Go to a larger scale, and the Conservatives have been trending down for the best part of a year; either side of 25% this time last year, more like 20% now, in a fairly straight line.
Anyone tried correlating that with the number of Conservative voters having to remortgage?
Back of a Voter ID estimate:
I think @Sandpit said yesterday that about 1 million voters (1/2 million mortgages) would get hit by remortgaging in the next six months, so that's 2 million a year.
That's 20% of ten million, which is about the proportion of the Conservative vote that has gone elsewhere.
OK, the flawed assumption is that all mortgage payers vote Conservative, but that's uncanny.
If that is what's going on... oh dear.
There were 1.1m remortgages last year, so roughly 100k a month. Assuming that holds for this year, there’s half a million more to come between now and a suggested October election, almost all of which will have been taken out when rates were on the floor. So half a million households, call it a million adults on average, plus parents and adult children who will have heard about it if not directly affected.
One of these is my brother, who with his wife have a £500k mortgage. Off the top of my head, his payment will go from something like £1,800 a month, to £3,800 a month. So he needs to find two grand extra a month, just to keep the bank happy. There’s going to be a lot of forced sellers in that position, and a lot more who really have to cut back the discretionary savings.
As Reagan famously said, are you better off today than you were four years ago? With the inflation and interest rate rises in recent memory, the answer for millions of people is a resounding ‘no’, irrespective of how good the headline economic statistics look this month. Incumbents everywhere are in trouble, with Sunak and Biden no exception.
I also see the oil price back above $90 last month, which will only be making things worse, and is a great indicator to Western leaders of how important it is for Ukraine to win the war.
How much has the value of the house increased by since the £500k mortgage was taken out ?
Ultimately those house price rises have consequences.
Good question. Prices are now falling slightly, but there was a bit of a jump immediately after the pandemic. I’d say slightly higher in money terms, but lower in real terms now than three years ago
I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that the polls weren’t static but that the graphs showed a steadily downward trend in Conservative support. I was once again vilified for the suggestion but your post @Scott_xP bears it out. The Conservatives lost 2% in March and it looks as if the trend is continuing, with a Reform crossover by no means impossible.
That Reform are only fielding 300 candidates in the locals should make us additionally wary about reading too much into the results.
Quite how this continuing slide feeds into Moon Rabbit’s assertions to the contrary I have no idea.
Not vilification. Mockery.
I've picked out all the polls for April for a couple of polling companies, and they show no trend at all for April.
You are willing to point to single data points to make a point (Tory support only looks like it is still going down in the YouGov graph because of the anchoring effect of the final data point, which might be an outlier as much as it might be part of a trend) but when I've looked at more data that shows a contrary picture you completely ignore it.
You can't be taken seriously as an analyst of the data.
There are plenty of us willing to wear our dunces hats when we make mistakes, or are temporarily overcome by our partisan bias. Why not join us? A bit of humility is good for the soul.
Depends on the time frame.
Obviously, the weekly pluses and minuses don't need explanation by anyone- they are nearly all just noise- but how far do you have to step back to see a trend?
I suspect a month isn't really enough, either. Go to a larger scale, and the Conservatives have been trending down for the best part of a year; either side of 25% this time last year, more like 20% now, in a fairly straight line.
Anyone tried correlating that with the number of Conservative voters having to remortgage?
Back of a Voter ID estimate:
I think @Sandpit said yesterday that about 1 million voters (1/2 million mortgages) would get hit by remortgaging in the next six months, so that's 2 million a year.
That's 20% of ten million, which is about the proportion of the Conservative vote that has gone elsewhere.
OK, the flawed assumption is that all mortgage payers vote Conservative, but that's uncanny.
If that is what's going on... oh dear.
There were 1.1m remortgages last year, so roughly 100k a month. Assuming that holds for this year, there’s half a million more to come between now and a suggested October election, almost all of which will have been taken out when rates were on the floor. So half a million households, call it a million adults on average, plus parents and adult children who will have heard about it if not directly affected.
One of these is my brother, who with his wife have a £500k mortgage. Off the top of my head, his payment will go from something like £1,800 a month, to £3,800 a month. So he needs to find two grand extra a month, just to keep the bank happy. There’s going to be a lot of forced sellers in that position, and a lot more who really have to cut back the discretionary savings.
As Reagan famously said, are you better off today than you were four years ago? With the inflation and interest rate rises in recent memory, the answer for millions of people is a resounding ‘no’, irrespective of how good the headline economic statistics look this month. Incumbents everywhere are in trouble, with Sunak and Biden no exception.
I also see the oil price back above $90 last month, which will only be making things worse, and is a great indicator to Western leaders of how important it is for Ukraine to win the war.
It's 30 years since I left school now - gulp - and after my maths GCSE exams I was happy to wave goodbye to a subject that I have no affinity with whatsoever. Since that day I have had no use at all for trigonometry or quadratic equations.
What would have been much more useful to me would have been to have been taught about what you could call I suppose household mathematics. For example, how debt works in terms of mortgages and credit cards in particular. I'm quite fortunate that my mortgage is relatively small now - under £100k - but after re-mortgaging in November my monthly payments have gone up by £150 a month.
And what I also don't understand is once the £830 a month payment has gone off the balance, why £420 in interest is immediately slapped back on.
I've got a brain in my head so if I really wanted to understand it I could find out, but I just kind of shrug and accept it resignedly. If I thought about it in too much detail I'd probably want to man a barricade somewhere or something. Put some bankers to the pitchfork.
Are we going to spend all day banging on about the results from today's elections despite the fact that we won't know them until tomorrow? 😀
I will make one prediction. At least one party will be cheered by the result and at least one disappointed. Ok, that's two predictions... ☹️
Time to bang on about the weather again instead:
20mm of rain here since midnight. I think it might have stopped now but it's hard to tell as cloudbase seems to be at about 75m ASL and our house is 86m.
Could this become one of those 'years without a summer'?
Bit early, it’s only May.
Incidentally, in news that will flummox readers, the mean Central England Temperature for April just gone was 1.7C warmer than average.
Very mild start and cloudy nights. Virtually frostless. I reckon maxima were only a fraction above average
Maxima anomaly 2.27 (I make it 7.53, HADCET officially lists it as 7.55C ytd so far) Mean anomaly 2.25 Minima anomaly 2.23
Comparison with Extreme Annual CETs:- The highest annual min CET ever recorded was 7.24, which is 1.39 higher than normal. To beat this record the anomaly must be higher than 0.98 for the remainder of this year
The highest annual mean CET ever recorded was 11.15, which is 1.68 higher than normal. To beat this record the anomaly must be higher than 1.4 for the remainder of this year
Comparison with Extreme Annual CETs:- The highest annual max CET ever recorded was 15.32, which is 2.23 higher than normal. To beat this record the anomaly must be higher than 2.21 for the remainder of this year.
2007 was the only warmer year to this point, thanks in part to an amazingly mild April (11.25 average)
I was referring to April isolation, agree ytd is out there
April ranks as 30th (Mean) since 1772 for temperature overall.
I'd say this week has been slightly above average for late April/early May in South Manchester. Dry 98% of the time and pleasantly warm. No complaints from me.
FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.
No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’
Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.
But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?
I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.
If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.
Think on these things.
Let's have some context here. You are faking offence over a comment which was part of a string of posts which called out a racist trope you made about the PM and your racist trope was not only unacceptable but it united people across the political divide in their condemnation.
You were in a hole, you should have stopped digging, you should not have doubled down.
This forum should want to attract women and young people. It should not seek to attract racists.
To be honest I think an apology from @Heathener would be appropriate following her widely condemned and, as you say right across the political divide, for her uncalled for comments about Sunak
You can attack Sunak over many things but racism is not one
Yes, I agree with you. I think an apology would have just put it all to bed and moved on. But she just doubled down and went on the attack.
It unified posters across the political divide here in their condemnation. A rarity.
Heathener is a sanctimonious pain in the arse but we don't know that they are incorrect. People just want them cancelled for wrongthink.
Spot on.
Time for the pearl-clutchers to calm down and give Heathener a break - we can't all maintain the high ethical posting standards of a Leon.
Had a glossy leaflet drop through the letterbox yesterday about the shiny new East Midlands Combined Authority Mayor sent by officers of the same.
The first couple of pages were taken up with how to get a postal vote. Given the leaflet arrived some time after the deadline to apply for a postal vote, it didn't immediately impress me with the competency of those running said combined authority.
There was a page about voter ID, listing all the acceptable forms, and also some stuff on how to fill in the ballot paper (fair enough).
Then it was on to the real meat of the publication, pages from each candidate. Based on their ability to send in artwork at the correct resolution and format, this was a clear win for the Tories, Reform and the Independent, and a particularly poor effort by the Green (quite badly pixelated).
Moving on to policy, we got large helpings of motherhood and apple pie (virtually everyone is apparently going to fix the potholes - the independent's text implying his skillset was to go off and personally start shoveling tarmac). Allmost all of them want more government money to spend on local transport etc etc. It wasn't really possible to gauge what the independent was intending to do, other than be independent. That possibly cost him my vote - if he'd actually got some policies (beyond fixing potholes) I would have at least considered if he might be suitable. The only person with an agenda beyond motherhood, apple pie and more government money was the Refom candidate, who devoted his page to saying he thought the combined authority is a stupid idea nobody other than politicians wanted and he would like to abolish it. I suspect he's a loon (a quick Google suggests he's a "colourful" character , but on the basis that I entirely agree with him about the pointlessness of it all, I think he's getting my vote.
I voted for Bradley, he's perhaps Ward's only realistic challenger and he's said he won't (Mainly because Ward will win) introduce a mayoral precept.
Voted Godden for the PCC, Henry needs to go and I can't see Ward (LD) doing much.
Are we going to spend all day banging on about the results from today's elections despite the fact that we won't know them until tomorrow? 😀
I will make one prediction. At least one party will be cheered by the result and at least one disappointed. Ok, that's two predictions... ☹️
Time to bang on about the weather again instead:
20mm of rain here since midnight. I think it might have stopped now but it's hard to tell as cloudbase seems to be at about 75m ASL and our house is 86m.
Could this become one of those 'years without a summer'?
Bit early, it’s only May.
Incidentally, in news that will flummox readers, the mean Central England Temperature for April just gone was 1.7C warmer than average.
Very mild start and cloudy nights. Virtually frostless. I reckon maxima were only a fraction above average
Maxima anomaly 2.27 (I make it 7.53, HADCET officially lists it as 7.55C ytd so far) Mean anomaly 2.25 Minima anomaly 2.23
Comparison with Extreme Annual CETs:- The highest annual min CET ever recorded was 7.24, which is 1.39 higher than normal. To beat this record the anomaly must be higher than 0.98 for the remainder of this year
The highest annual mean CET ever recorded was 11.15, which is 1.68 higher than normal. To beat this record the anomaly must be higher than 1.4 for the remainder of this year
Comparison with Extreme Annual CETs:- The highest annual max CET ever recorded was 15.32, which is 2.23 higher than normal. To beat this record the anomaly must be higher than 2.21 for the remainder of this year.
2007 was the only warmer year to this point, thanks in part to an amazingly mild April (11.25 average)
I was referring to April isolation, agree ytd is out there
April ranks as 30th (Mean) since 1772 for temperature overall.
Maxima 1.6 above avg, minima 1.9, slightly less disparity than I thought
I was late completing my postal vote today so handed it in at the polling station. I was therefore able to vote in person without voter ID.
And for anyone wondering which way to cast their vote today, here’s a bit of context for why your local council services have gone to shit. From the HoC library.
(Lucky Isles of Scilly)
[obviously this has no impact on council finances, oh no. The Tory government bears no responsibility at all. It’s all about equal pay claims]
And here for completeness is the funding curve from 2010 until 2018.
Sadly I can't vote in person as I'm about to board a flight for California but my lovely wife is doing a proxy vote for the brilliant Sadiq at the Telegraph Hill Centre today on my behalf. Good luck to all Labour candidates today.
Mine was at the Lewisham Arthouse. Always a good opportunity to snoop around quasi-civic buildings.
Church for me. The one we've just donated some neat little 'bonsai' type hedges to. So it'll be a vote for Sadiq, the great Labour candidate in this great Labour city, then a walk in the grounds to go look at them. Just hope the rain holds off.
Just want to shock everyone who has me down as a right-on lefty metropolitan liberal elite academic: I have not voted for and will not vote for Sadiq Khan in the London mayoral election
News from Cumbria. As a local authority unit this no longer exists, and our no local election 2nd May is for Cumberland, revived recently from the dead, though with changed boundaries. (Penrith is now in Westmorland.
However confusingly we have a PCC election for Cumbria police commissioner. The big news is that because of this thrilling contest the craft club in the village is unable to meet, the village hall being taken over for this purpose. The severe cost of rural democracy.
FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.
No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’
Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.
But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?
I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.
If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.
Think on these things.
Let's have some context here. You are faking offence over a comment which was part of a string of posts which called out a racist trope you made about the PM and your racist trope was not only unacceptable but it united people across the political divide in their condemnation.
You were in a hole, you should have stopped digging, you should not have doubled down.
This forum should want to attract women and young people. It should not seek to attract racists.
To be honest I think an apology from @Heathener would be appropriate following her widely condemned and, as you say right across the political divide, for her uncalled for comments about Sunak
You can attack Sunak over many things but racism is not one
Yes, I agree with you. I think an apology would have just put it all to bed and moved on. But she just doubled down and went on the attack.
It unified posters across the political divide here in their condemnation. A rarity.
Heathener is a sanctimonious pain in the arse but we don't know that they are incorrect. People just want them cancelled for wrongthink.
I genuinely believe @Heathener might be a marvellous comic creation. The outright racism was a brilliant move, and now the sudden.effrontery at being called “my luv”? Superb
Also she actually used the word bricolage - in italics like that - and she claims to keep boiled water in a thermos
They is a genius sock puppet and I salute the puppeteer
Oh god I think you might be right and as we speak there are three frat boys high-fiving that "she" is giving us all the run-around.
I'd assumed she is too. At the very least, she chooses her words very carefully to convey a certain impression and/or provoke a certain response and I suspect she chuckles to herself in satisfaction at the end of a well-crafted post. Nothing wrong with that of course - all adds to the colour of the site; she certainly wouldn't be the only poster who sometimes posts largely to provoke a reaction; and almost all of us give only a very partial picture of ourselves.
Has anyone seen the video of the chap stopped by the police in the USA because his kayak stuck out too far from the top of his car without a flag on it. He refused or couldn't produce some paperwork and wouldn't wind down his window so the policeman asked him to get out the car. He refused. The policeman was so taken aback he said credulously 'Excuse me?' Up to now this was quite civilised. The policeman threatened to smash the window to remove him and did so when he still wouldn't comply.. The driver then started praying to his god for help - His god being Donald Trump.
Some people are beyond help. Who the hell prays to Donald Trump.
FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.
No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’
Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.
But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?
I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.
If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.
Think on these things.
Let's have some context here. You are faking offence over a comment which was part of a string of posts which called out a racist trope you made about the PM and your racist trope was not only unacceptable but it united people across the political divide in their condemnation.
You were in a hole, you should have stopped digging, you should not have doubled down.
This forum should want to attract women and young people. It should not seek to attract racists.
To be honest I think an apology from @Heathener would be appropriate following her widely condemned and, as you say right across the political divide, for her uncalled for comments about Sunak
You can attack Sunak over many things but racism is not one
Yes, I agree with you. I think an apology would have just put it all to bed and moved on. But she just doubled down and went on the attack.
It unified posters across the political divide here in their condemnation. A rarity.
Heathener is a sanctimonious pain in the arse but we don't know that they are incorrect. People just want them cancelled for wrongthink.
I genuinely believe @Heathener might be a marvellous comic creation. The outright racism was a brilliant move, and now the sudden.effrontery at being called “my luv”? Superb
Also she actually used the word bricolage - in italics like that - and she claims to keep boiled water in a thermos
They is a genius sock puppet and I salute the puppeteer
Oh god I think you might be right and as we speak there are three frat boys high-fiving that "she" is giving us all the run-around.
I'd assumed she is too. At the very least, she chooses her words very carefully to convey a certain impression and/or provoke a certain response and I suspect she chuckles to herself in satisfaction at the end of a well-crafted post. Nothing wrong with that of course - all adds to the colour of the site; she certainly wouldn't be the only poster who sometimes posts largely to provoke a reaction; and almost all of us give only a very partial picture of ourselves.
I've been had I think you're both right. I mean she has moved herself onto the list of posters I never engage with or respond to directly so now it matters not to me but yes good call about her.
I am, however, interested whenever people invoke concepts such as "British" or "un-British" and believe it needs further dissection even if other posters on here might think that discussing racist tropes is "pearl clutching".
A poll which has Trump beating Biden, Kennedy beating Biden, and Kennedy beating Trump.
'Only Kennedy can beat Donald Trump in 2024. “To be a spoiler, a candidate has to fulfill two requirements — first, they must not be able to win themselves, and, second, by participating in the election, they must prevent someone else from winning who otherwise would,” Kennedy explained.
By that criterion, the only spoiler in the race is President Biden. He is the one who cannot win against either candidate and whose presence gives Trump the victory instead of Kennedy.'
Curious then that the vast bulk of his funding comes from Trump's wealthy backers.
FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.
No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’
Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.
But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?
I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.
If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.
Think on these things.
Let's have some context here. You are faking offence over a comment which was part of a string of posts which called out a racist trope you made about the PM and your racist trope was not only unacceptable but it united people across the political divide in their condemnation.
You were in a hole, you should have stopped digging, you should not have doubled down.
This forum should want to attract women and young people. It should not seek to attract racists.
To be honest I think an apology from @Heathener would be appropriate following her widely condemned and, as you say right across the political divide, for her uncalled for comments about Sunak
You can attack Sunak over many things but racism is not one
Yes, I agree with you. I think an apology would have just put it all to bed and moved on. But she just doubled down and went on the attack.
It unified posters across the political divide here in their condemnation. A rarity.
Heathener is a sanctimonious pain in the arse but we don't know that they are incorrect. People just want them cancelled for wrongthink.
I genuinely believe @Heathener might be a marvellous comic creation. The outright racism was a brilliant move, and now the sudden.effrontery at being called “my luv”? Superb
Also she actually used the word bricolage - in italics like that - and she claims to keep boiled water in a thermos
They is a genius sock puppet and I salute the puppeteer
Oh god I think you might be right and as we speak there are three frat boys high-fiving that "she" is giving us all the run-around.
Yes I think so
Even if she isn’t a sock puppet created by talented surrealists she is now so ridiculous - a racist Postwoman who travels the world winning literary prizes for her warm water thermos work, she really isn’t worth getting riled by
News from Cumbria. As a local authority unit this no longer exists, and our no local election 2nd May is for Cumberland, revived recently from the dead, though with changed boundaries. (Penrith is now in Westmorland.
However confusingly we have a PCC election for Cumbria police commissioner. The big news is that because of this thrilling contest the craft club in the village is unable to meet, the village hall being taken over for this purpose. The severe cost of rural democracy.
Could they not have brought voting forward by a day, so as not to disrupt local crafting?
Has anyone seen the video of the chap stopped by the police in the USA because his kayak stuck out too far from the top of his car without a flag on it. He refused or couldn't produce some paperwork and wouldn't wind down his window so the policeman asked him to get out the car. He refused. The policeman was so taken aback he said credulously 'Excuse me?' Up to now this was quite civilised. The policeman threatened to smash the window to remove him and did so when he still wouldn't comply.. The driver then started praying to his god for help - His god being Donald Trump.
Some people are beyond help. Who the hell prays to Donald Trump.
There are zillions of such videos both here and in the US, whether filmed by citizens, or auditors, or whatever. Sometimes they escalate quickly, sometimes not much happens.
Never previously, however, has one featured Donald Trump as a deity.
FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.
No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’
Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.
But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?
I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.
If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.
Think on these things.
Let's have some context here. You are faking offence over a comment which was part of a string of posts which called out a racist trope you made about the PM and your racist trope was not only unacceptable but it united people across the political divide in their condemnation.
You were in a hole, you should have stopped digging, you should not have doubled down.
This forum should want to attract women and young people. It should not seek to attract racists.
To be honest I think an apology from @Heathener would be appropriate following her widely condemned and, as you say right across the political divide, for her uncalled for comments about Sunak
You can attack Sunak over many things but racism is not one
Yes, I agree with you. I think an apology would have just put it all to bed and moved on. But she just doubled down and went on the attack.
It unified posters across the political divide here in their condemnation. A rarity.
Heathener is a sanctimonious pain in the arse but we don't know that they are incorrect. People just want them cancelled for wrongthink.
Spot on.
Time for the pearl-clutchers to calm down and give Heathener a break - we can't all maintain the high ethical posting standards of a Leon.
Has anyone seen the video of the chap stopped by the police in the USA because his kayak stuck out too far from the top of his car without a flag on it. He refused or couldn't produce some paperwork and wouldn't wind down his window so the policeman asked him to get out the car. He refused. The policeman was so taken aback he said credulously 'Excuse me?' Up to now this was quite civilised. The policeman threatened to smash the window to remove him and did so when he still wouldn't comply.. The driver then started praying to his god for help - His god being Donald Trump.
Some people are beyond help. Who the hell prays to Donald Trump.
FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.
No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’
Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.
But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?
I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.
If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.
Think on these things.
Let's have some context here. You are faking offence over a comment which was part of a string of posts which called out a racist trope you made about the PM and your racist trope was not only unacceptable but it united people across the political divide in their condemnation.
You were in a hole, you should have stopped digging, you should not have doubled down.
This forum should want to attract women and young people. It should not seek to attract racists.
To be honest I think an apology from @Heathener would be appropriate following her widely condemned and, as you say right across the political divide, for her uncalled for comments about Sunak
You can attack Sunak over many things but racism is not one
Yes, I agree with you. I think an apology would have just put it all to bed and moved on. But she just doubled down and went on the attack.
It unified posters across the political divide here in their condemnation. A rarity.
Heathener is a sanctimonious pain in the arse but we don't know that they are incorrect. People just want them cancelled for wrongthink.
I genuinely believe @Heathener might be a marvellous comic creation. The outright racism was a brilliant move, and now the sudden.effrontery at being called “my luv”? Superb
Also she actually used the word bricolage - in italics like that - and she claims to keep boiled water in a thermos
They is a genius sock puppet and I salute the puppeteer
Oh god I think you might be right and as we speak there are three frat boys high-fiving that "she" is giving us all the run-around.
I'd assumed she is too. At the very least, she chooses her words very carefully to convey a certain impression and/or provoke a certain response and I suspect she chuckles to herself in satisfaction at the end of a well-crafted post. Nothing wrong with that of course - all adds to the colour of the site; she certainly wouldn't be the only poster who sometimes posts largely to provoke a reaction; and almost all of us give only a very partial picture of ourselves.
I've been had I think you're both right. I mean she has moved herself onto the list of posters I never engage with or respond to directly so now it matters not to me but yes good call about her.
I am, however, interested whenever people invoke concepts such as "British" or "un-British" and believe it needs further dissection even if other posters on here might think that discussing racist tropes is "pearl clutching".
I was late completing my postal vote today so handed it in at the polling station. I was therefore able to vote in person without voter ID.
And for anyone wondering which way to cast their vote today, here’s a bit of context for why your local council services have gone to shit. From the HoC library.
(Lucky Isles of Scilly)
[obviously this has no impact on council finances, oh no. The Tory government bears no responsibility at all. It’s all about equal pay claims]
And here for completeness is the funding curve from 2010 until 2018.
Sadly I can't vote in person as I'm about to board a flight for California but my lovely wife is doing a proxy vote for the brilliant Sadiq at the Telegraph Hill Centre today on my behalf. Good luck to all Labour candidates today.
Mine was at the Lewisham Arthouse. Always a good opportunity to snoop around quasi-civic buildings.
Church for me. The one we've just donated some neat little 'bonsai' type hedges to. So it'll be a vote for Sadiq, the great Labour candidate in this great Labour city, then a walk in the grounds to go look at them. Just hope the rain holds off.
Just want to shock everyone who has me down as a right-on lefty metropolitan liberal elite academic: I have not voted for and will not vote for Sadiq Khan in the London mayoral election
Brave. You'd better hope Hall doesn't win by one vote.
I was late completing my postal vote today so handed it in at the polling station. I was therefore able to vote in person without voter ID.
And for anyone wondering which way to cast their vote today, here’s a bit of context for why your local council services have gone to shit. From the HoC library.
(Lucky Isles of Scilly)
[obviously this has no impact on council finances, oh no. The Tory government bears no responsibility at all. It’s all about equal pay claims]
And here for completeness is the funding curve from 2010 until 2018.
Sadly I can't vote in person as I'm about to board a flight for California but my lovely wife is doing a proxy vote for the brilliant Sadiq at the Telegraph Hill Centre today on my behalf. Good luck to all Labour candidates today.
Mine was at the Lewisham Arthouse. Always a good opportunity to snoop around quasi-civic buildings.
Church for me. The one we've just donated some neat little 'bonsai' type hedges to. So it'll be a vote for Sadiq, the great Labour candidate in this great Labour city, then a walk in the grounds to go look at them. Just hope the rain holds off.
Just want to shock everyone who has me down as a right-on lefty metropolitan liberal elite academic: I have not voted for and will not vote for Sadiq Khan in the London mayoral election
FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.
No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’
Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.
But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?
I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.
If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.
Think on these things.
Let's have some context here. You are faking offence over a comment which was part of a string of posts which called out a racist trope you made about the PM and your racist trope was not only unacceptable but it united people across the political divide in their condemnation.
You were in a hole, you should have stopped digging, you should not have doubled down.
This forum should want to attract women and young people. It should not seek to attract racists.
To be honest I think an apology from @Heathener would be appropriate following her widely condemned and, as you say right across the political divide, for her uncalled for comments about Sunak
You can attack Sunak over many things but racism is not one
Yes, I agree with you. I think an apology would have just put it all to bed and moved on. But she just doubled down and went on the attack.
It unified posters across the political divide here in their condemnation. A rarity.
Heathener is a sanctimonious pain in the arse but we don't know that they are incorrect. People just want them cancelled for wrongthink.
I genuinely believe @Heathener might be a marvellous comic creation. The outright racism was a brilliant move, and now the sudden.effrontery at being called “my luv”? Superb
Also she actually used the word bricolage - in italics like that - and she claims to keep boiled water in a thermos
They is a genius sock puppet and I salute the puppeteer
Oh god I think you might be right and as we speak there are three frat boys high-fiving that "she" is giving us all the run-around.
I'd assumed she is too. At the very least, she chooses her words very carefully to convey a certain impression and/or provoke a certain response and I suspect she chuckles to herself in satisfaction at the end of a well-crafted post. Nothing wrong with that of course - all adds to the colour of the site; she certainly wouldn't be the only poster who sometimes posts largely to provoke a reaction; and almost all of us give only a very partial picture of ourselves.
I've been had I think you're both right. I mean she has moved herself onto the list of posters I never engage with or respond to directly so now it matters not to me but yes good call about her.
I am, however, interested whenever people invoke concepts such as "British" or "un-British" and believe it needs further dissection even if other posters on here might think that discussing racist tropes is "pearl clutching".
I was late completing my postal vote today so handed it in at the polling station. I was therefore able to vote in person without voter ID.
And for anyone wondering which way to cast their vote today, here’s a bit of context for why your local council services have gone to shit. From the HoC library.
(Lucky Isles of Scilly)
[obviously this has no impact on council finances, oh no. The Tory government bears no responsibility at all. It’s all about equal pay claims]
And here for completeness is the funding curve from 2010 until 2018.
Sadly I can't vote in person as I'm about to board a flight for California but my lovely wife is doing a proxy vote for the brilliant Sadiq at the Telegraph Hill Centre today on my behalf. Good luck to all Labour candidates today.
Mine was at the Lewisham Arthouse. Always a good opportunity to snoop around quasi-civic buildings.
Church for me. The one we've just donated some neat little 'bonsai' type hedges to. So it'll be a vote for Sadiq, the great Labour candidate in this great Labour city, then a walk in the grounds to go look at them. Just hope the rain holds off.
Just want to shock everyone who has me down as a right-on lefty metropolitan liberal elite academic: I have not voted for and will not vote for Sadiq Khan in the London mayoral election
I was late completing my postal vote today so handed it in at the polling station. I was therefore able to vote in person without voter ID.
And for anyone wondering which way to cast their vote today, here’s a bit of context for why your local council services have gone to shit. From the HoC library.
(Lucky Isles of Scilly)
[obviously this has no impact on council finances, oh no. The Tory government bears no responsibility at all. It’s all about equal pay claims]
And here for completeness is the funding curve from 2010 until 2018.
Sadly I can't vote in person as I'm about to board a flight for California but my lovely wife is doing a proxy vote for the brilliant Sadiq at the Telegraph Hill Centre today on my behalf. Good luck to all Labour candidates today.
Mine was at the Lewisham Arthouse. Always a good opportunity to snoop around quasi-civic buildings.
Church for me. The one we've just donated some neat little 'bonsai' type hedges to. So it'll be a vote for Sadiq, the great Labour candidate in this great Labour city, then a walk in the grounds to go look at them. Just hope the rain holds off.
Just want to shock everyone who has me down as a right-on lefty metropolitan liberal elite academic: I have not voted for and will not vote for Sadiq Khan in the London mayoral election
FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.
No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’
Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.
But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?
I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.
If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.
Think on these things.
Let's have some context here. You are faking offence over a comment which was part of a string of posts which called out a racist trope you made about the PM and your racist trope was not only unacceptable but it united people across the political divide in their condemnation.
You were in a hole, you should have stopped digging, you should not have doubled down.
This forum should want to attract women and young people. It should not seek to attract racists.
To be honest I think an apology from @Heathener would be appropriate following her widely condemned and, as you say right across the political divide, for her uncalled for comments about Sunak
You can attack Sunak over many things but racism is not one
Yes, I agree with you. I think an apology would have just put it all to bed and moved on. But she just doubled down and went on the attack.
It unified posters across the political divide here in their condemnation. A rarity.
Heathener is a sanctimonious pain in the arse but we don't know that they are incorrect. People just want them cancelled for wrongthink.
I genuinely believe @Heathener might be a marvellous comic creation. The outright racism was a brilliant move, and now the sudden.effrontery at being called “my luv”? Superb
Also she actually used the word bricolage - in italics like that - and she claims to keep boiled water in a thermos
They is a genius sock puppet and I salute the puppeteer
@Leon - On an entirely separate subject - related to recent discussions on the subject of the numinous - my daughter bought me a book today. Almost makes me wonder if she is stalking my conversations on here:
650 noomy places. It's very lovely, anyway. You will be interested to know that there is an entire chapter on West Cornwall, which is as much as Lancashire and Yorkshire get combined.
The most pernicious voter suppression comes from this country's disfunctional system of electoral registration, compare and contrast with the far more effective systems in place in most other countries. The extra voter ID requirement is only the icing on the cake.
I was late completing my postal vote today so handed it in at the polling station. I was therefore able to vote in person without voter ID.
And for anyone wondering which way to cast their vote today, here’s a bit of context for why your local council services have gone to shit. From the HoC library.
(Lucky Isles of Scilly)
[obviously this has no impact on council finances, oh no. The Tory government bears no responsibility at all. It’s all about equal pay claims]
And here for completeness is the funding curve from 2010 until 2018.
Sadly I can't vote in person as I'm about to board a flight for California but my lovely wife is doing a proxy vote for the brilliant Sadiq at the Telegraph Hill Centre today on my behalf. Good luck to all Labour candidates today.
Mine was at the Lewisham Arthouse. Always a good opportunity to snoop around quasi-civic buildings.
Church for me. The one we've just donated some neat little 'bonsai' type hedges to. So it'll be a vote for Sadiq, the great Labour candidate in this great Labour city, then a walk in the grounds to go look at them. Just hope the rain holds off.
Just want to shock everyone who has me down as a right-on lefty metropolitan liberal elite academic: I have not voted for and will not vote for Sadiq Khan in the London mayoral election
Brave. You'd better hope Hall doesn't win by one vote.
Well, I figure that London stuff doesn't affect me too much in God's Own County. I guess that's why I wasn't given a vote
Has anyone seen the video of the chap stopped by the police in the USA because his kayak stuck out too far from the top of his car without a flag on it. He refused or couldn't produce some paperwork and wouldn't wind down his window so the policeman asked him to get out the car. He refused. The policeman was so taken aback he said credulously 'Excuse me?' Up to now this was quite civilised. The policeman threatened to smash the window to remove him and did so when he still wouldn't comply.. The driver then started praying to his god for help - His god being Donald Trump.
Some people are beyond help. Who the hell prays to Donald Trump.
Well nobody who understands the theological objection to the intercession of the saints as one would hope Protestant evangelicals who form a core group of Trumpists ought. That’s before you start to ponder whether Trump would theoretically qualify for any list of the saints. But then a lot of American mega church evangelicalism is spiced with new age woowoo and a dash of secular constitutionalism. One tends to wonder whether for the Christian right the US Constitution isn’t the real Holy Scripture with the Bible relegated in importance.
Very little comment on here on the fucking disgraceful video published on the Home Office X account yesterday of asylum seekers being rounded up, handcuffed, and put in the back of vans in preparation for their deportation to Rwanda.
Surely this should not be allowed? It's absolutely blatant electioneering (of the gutter brand) by a government department the day before the elections. Doesn't this break all sorts of purdah rules and, even if not, isn't it deeply inappropriate for the HO to openly campaign on behalf of the Tory Party so close to elections?
Asking Londoners . How much information have you had re the change in voting system and voter ID ?
Not much, and I expect there will be quite a few issues today though not as many as in the GE given most people who vote will be politically engaged.
Interesting chat with a colleague this morning. She had a panic about having ID with her married name but electoral roll still with unmarried name. Then realised she had updated herself on the electoral roll after all. But I expect this will catch a few newly married women.
And her husband's only ID is an Irish passport. Would they accept that? The website is ambiguous. So he will give it a go and see if it's accepted.
I was late completing my postal vote today so handed it in at the polling station. I was therefore able to vote in person without voter ID.
And for anyone wondering which way to cast their vote today, here’s a bit of context for why your local council services have gone to shit. From the HoC library.
(Lucky Isles of Scilly)
[obviously this has no impact on council finances, oh no. The Tory government bears no responsibility at all. It’s all about equal pay claims]
And here for completeness is the funding curve from 2010 until 2018.
Sadly I can't vote in person as I'm about to board a flight for California but my lovely wife is doing a proxy vote for the brilliant Sadiq at the Telegraph Hill Centre today on my behalf. Good luck to all Labour candidates today.
Mine was at the Lewisham Arthouse. Always a good opportunity to snoop around quasi-civic buildings.
Church for me. The one we've just donated some neat little 'bonsai' type hedges to. So it'll be a vote for Sadiq, the great Labour candidate in this great Labour city, then a walk in the grounds to go look at them. Just hope the rain holds off.
Just want to shock everyone who has me down as a right-on lefty metropolitan liberal elite academic: I have not voted for and will not vote for Sadiq Khan in the London mayoral election
SHOCKED - but only if you're voting for Suze.
I voted for Skaith (may have considered other options in first round if it wasn't FPTP).
My current feeling about the West Midlands mayoral election, informed of weeks of doorknocking: - Street will win by a margin of around 5%, thanks to split ticket voting by those voting Lab in the local/PCC elections, plus the impact of the independent candidate Yakoob. - Yakoob will pick up about 5% of the total vote after a very visible campaign in areas with significant Muslim populations.
Very little comment on here on the fucking disgraceful video published on the Home Office X account yesterday of asylum seekers being rounded up, handcuffed, and put in the back of vans in preparation of their deportation to Rwanda.
Surely this should not be allowed? It's absolutely blatant electioneering (of the gutter brand) by a government department the day before the elections. Doesn't this break all sorts of purdah rules and, even if not, isn't it deeply inappropriate for the HO to openly campaign on behalf of the Tory Party?
The handcuffs were particularly depressing . These people haven’t robbed a bank or committed a violent crime . The Tories are just a cesspit of hate, division and cruelty . I’ve never loathed a party as much as I do the current bunch in no 10 .
I was late completing my postal vote today so handed it in at the polling station. I was therefore able to vote in person without voter ID.
And for anyone wondering which way to cast their vote today, here’s a bit of context for why your local council services have gone to shit. From the HoC library.
(Lucky Isles of Scilly)
[obviously this has no impact on council finances, oh no. The Tory government bears no responsibility at all. It’s all about equal pay claims]
And here for completeness is the funding curve from 2010 until 2018.
Sadly I can't vote in person as I'm about to board a flight for California but my lovely wife is doing a proxy vote for the brilliant Sadiq at the Telegraph Hill Centre today on my behalf. Good luck to all Labour candidates today.
Mine was at the Lewisham Arthouse. Always a good opportunity to snoop around quasi-civic buildings.
Church for me. The one we've just donated some neat little 'bonsai' type hedges to. So it'll be a vote for Sadiq, the great Labour candidate in this great Labour city, then a walk in the grounds to go look at them. Just hope the rain holds off.
Just want to shock everyone who has me down as a right-on lefty metropolitan liberal elite academic: I have not voted for and will not vote for Sadiq Khan in the London mayoral election
I never had you down as a lefty metropolitan liberal elite academic. If nothing else, with apologies, I don't really consider Selby 'metropolitan'.
My current feeling about the West Midlands mayoral election, informed of weeks of doorknocking: - Street will win by a margin of around 5%, thanks to split ticket voting by those voting Lab in the local/PCC elections, plus the impact of the independent candidate Yakoob. - Yakoob will pick up about 5% of the total vote after a very visible campaign in areas with significant Muslim populations.
Glorious George predicted on Tuesday that Yakoob would cost Labour the Mayoralty......
News from Cumbria. As a local authority unit this no longer exists, and our no local election 2nd May is for Cumberland, revived recently from the dead, though with changed boundaries. (Penrith is now in Westmorland.
However confusingly we have a PCC election for Cumbria police commissioner. The big news is that because of this thrilling contest the craft club in the village is unable to meet, the village hall being taken over for this purpose. The severe cost of rural democracy.
Could they not have brought voting forward by a day, so as not to disrupt local crafting?
It would perhaps require primary legislation, but would do more good than most acts of parliament. Except that on Wednesdays you would have to dislodge badminton and Brownies. Democracy is tough in the rural fastnesses. And charming really that this stuff is the big difference between us and North Korea.
Are we going to spend all day banging on about the results from today's elections despite the fact that we won't know them until tomorrow? 😀
I will make one prediction. At least one party will be cheered by the result and at least one disappointed. Ok, that's two predictions... ☹️
Time to bang on about the weather again instead:
20mm of rain here since midnight. I think it might have stopped now but it's hard to tell as cloudbase seems to be at about 75m ASL and our house is 86m.
Could this become one of those 'years without a summer'?
Bit early, it’s only May.
Incidentally, in news that will flummox readers, the mean Central England Temperature for April just gone was 1.7C warmer than average.
Very mild start and cloudy nights. Virtually frostless. I reckon maxima were only a fraction above average
Maxima anomaly 2.27 (I make it 7.53, HADCET officially lists it as 7.55C ytd so far) Mean anomaly 2.25 Minima anomaly 2.23
Comparison with Extreme Annual CETs:- The highest annual min CET ever recorded was 7.24, which is 1.39 higher than normal. To beat this record the anomaly must be higher than 0.98 for the remainder of this year
The highest annual mean CET ever recorded was 11.15, which is 1.68 higher than normal. To beat this record the anomaly must be higher than 1.4 for the remainder of this year
Comparison with Extreme Annual CETs:- The highest annual max CET ever recorded was 15.32, which is 2.23 higher than normal. To beat this record the anomaly must be higher than 2.21 for the remainder of this year.
2007 was the only warmer year to this point, thanks in part to an amazingly mild April (11.25 average)
I was referring to April isolation, agree ytd is out there
April ranks as 30th (Mean) since 1772 for temperature overall.
Maxima 1.6 above avg, minima 1.9, slightly less disparity than I thought
One fact about April, it was very dull - dullest for England since 1998 in fact.
My current feeling about the West Midlands mayoral election, informed of weeks of doorknocking: - Street will win by a margin of around 5%, thanks to split ticket voting by those voting Lab in the local/PCC elections, plus the impact of the independent candidate Yakoob. - Yakoob will pick up about 5% of the total vote after a very visible campaign in areas with significant Muslim populations.
Glorious George predicted on Tuesday that Yakoob would cost Labour the Mayoralty......
It’s the change in voting system that really has helped Street . Galloway is another cancer on British politics .
I was late completing my postal vote today so handed it in at the polling station. I was therefore able to vote in person without voter ID.
And for anyone wondering which way to cast their vote today, here’s a bit of context for why your local council services have gone to shit. From the HoC library.
(Lucky Isles of Scilly)
[obviously this has no impact on council finances, oh no. The Tory government bears no responsibility at all. It’s all about equal pay claims]
And here for completeness is the funding curve from 2010 until 2018.
Sadly I can't vote in person as I'm about to board a flight for California but my lovely wife is doing a proxy vote for the brilliant Sadiq at the Telegraph Hill Centre today on my behalf. Good luck to all Labour candidates today.
Mine was at the Lewisham Arthouse. Always a good opportunity to snoop around quasi-civic buildings.
Church for me. The one we've just donated some neat little 'bonsai' type hedges to. So it'll be a vote for Sadiq, the great Labour candidate in this great Labour city, then a walk in the grounds to go look at them. Just hope the rain holds off.
Just want to shock everyone who has me down as a right-on lefty metropolitan liberal elite academic: I have not voted for and will not vote for Sadiq Khan in the London mayoral election
I never had you down as a lefty metropolitan liberal elite academic. If nothing else, with apologies, I don't really consider Selby 'metropolitan'.
You could probably go further and say it's neither liberal nor elite, too
As it happens, I'm not even in the great metropolis of Selby (though not far away and within the consituency and the old district council).
Hold on. Are we missing the big story. Rishi called the GE on Monday, didn't he? It was apparently bolted on according to X. What date did he plump for eventually.
I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that the polls weren’t static but that the graphs showed a steadily downward trend in Conservative support. I was once again vilified for the suggestion but your post @Scott_xP bears it out. The Conservatives lost 2% in March and it looks as if the trend is continuing, with a Reform crossover by no means impossible.
That Reform are only fielding 300 candidates in the locals should make us additionally wary about reading too much into the results.
Quite how this continuing slide feeds into Moon Rabbit’s assertions to the contrary I have no idea.
Not vilification. Mockery.
I've picked out all the polls for April for a couple of polling companies, and they show no trend at all for April.
You are willing to point to single data points to make a point (Tory support only looks like it is still going down in the YouGov graph because of the anchoring effect of the final data point, which might be an outlier as much as it might be part of a trend) but when I've looked at more data that shows a contrary picture you completely ignore it.
You can't be taken seriously as an analyst of the data.
There are plenty of us willing to wear our dunces hats when we make mistakes, or are temporarily overcome by our partisan bias. Why not join us? A bit of humility is good for the soul.
Depends on the time frame.
Obviously, the weekly pluses and minuses don't need explanation by anyone- they are nearly all just noise- but how far do you have to step back to see a trend?
I suspect a month isn't really enough, either. Go to a larger scale, and the Conservatives have been trending down for the best part of a year; either side of 25% this time last year, more like 20% now, in a fairly straight line.
Anyone tried correlating that with the number of Conservative voters having to remortgage?
Back of a Voter ID estimate:
I think @Sandpit said yesterday that about 1 million voters (1/2 million mortgages) would get hit by remortgaging in the next six months, so that's 2 million a year.
That's 20% of ten million, which is about the proportion of the Conservative vote that has gone elsewhere.
OK, the flawed assumption is that all mortgage payers vote Conservative, but that's uncanny.
If that is what's going on... oh dear.
There were 1.1m remortgages last year, so roughly 100k a month. Assuming that holds for this year, there’s half a million more to come between now and a suggested October election, almost all of which will have been taken out when rates were on the floor. So half a million households, call it a million adults on average, plus parents and adult children who will have heard about it if not directly affected.
One of these is my brother, who with his wife have a £500k mortgage. Off the top of my head, his payment will go from something like £1,800 a month, to £3,800 a month. So he needs to find two grand extra a month, just to keep the bank happy. There’s going to be a lot of forced sellers in that position, and a lot more who really have to cut back the discretionary savings.
As Reagan famously said, are you better off today than you were four years ago? With the inflation and interest rate rises in recent memory, the answer for millions of people is a resounding ‘no’, irrespective of how good the headline economic statistics look this month. Incumbents everywhere are in trouble, with Sunak and Biden no exception.
I also see the oil price back above $90 last month, which will only be making things worse, and is a great indicator to Western leaders of how important it is for Ukraine to win the war.
How much has the value of the house increased by since the £500k mortgage was taken out ?
Ultimately those house price rises have consequences.
Good question. Prices are now falling slightly, but there was a bit of a jump immediately after the pandemic. I’d say slightly higher in money terms, but lower in real terms now than three years ago
Mortgage rates were kept historically, perhaps artificially, low for nearly fifteen years by ZIRP.
With higher house prices being an inevitable consequence with all the damage that has brought to the economy and society generally.
Now for those who only took on their mortgage towards the end of that period there may be some sympathy but for anyone who had a mortgage before Northern Rock crashed then they've been among the great gainers and are worthy of no sympathy now.
Very little comment on here on the fucking disgraceful video published on the Home Office X account yesterday of asylum seekers being rounded up, handcuffed, and put in the back of vans in preparation of their deportation to Rwanda.
Surely this should not be allowed? It's absolutely blatant electioneering (of the gutter brand) by a government department the day before the elections. Doesn't this break all sorts of purdah rules and, even if not, isn't it deeply inappropriate for the HO to openly campaign on behalf of the Tory Party?
The handcuffs were particularly depressing . These people haven’t robbed a bank or committed a violent crime . The Tories are just a cesspit of hate, division and cruelty . I’ve never loathed a party as much as I do the current bunch in no 10 .
I don't think this is just the Tories. The Home Office seems to delight in this sort of "tough" approach. They are very willing accomplices. As they were with the hostile environment and the famously sympathetic treatment of the Windrush cohort.
Contrast with HMRC who by and large rein it in despite copious material they could use if they wished. They consider this sort of blatant showing off rather infra dig.
I was late completing my postal vote today so handed it in at the polling station. I was therefore able to vote in person without voter ID.
And for anyone wondering which way to cast their vote today, here’s a bit of context for why your local council services have gone to shit. From the HoC library.
(Lucky Isles of Scilly)
[obviously this has no impact on council finances, oh no. The Tory government bears no responsibility at all. It’s all about equal pay claims]
And here for completeness is the funding curve from 2010 until 2018.
Sadly I can't vote in person as I'm about to board a flight for California but my lovely wife is doing a proxy vote for the brilliant Sadiq at the Telegraph Hill Centre today on my behalf. Good luck to all Labour candidates today.
Mine was at the Lewisham Arthouse. Always a good opportunity to snoop around quasi-civic buildings.
Church for me. The one we've just donated some neat little 'bonsai' type hedges to. So it'll be a vote for Sadiq, the great Labour candidate in this great Labour city, then a walk in the grounds to go look at them. Just hope the rain holds off.
Just want to shock everyone who has me down as a right-on lefty metropolitan liberal elite academic: I have not voted for and will not vote for Sadiq Khan in the London mayoral election
Brave. You'd better hope Hall doesn't win by one vote.
Well, I figure that London stuff doesn't affect me too much in God's Own County. I guess that's why I wasn't given a vote
Ah, a West Yorkshire Metropolitan, not a metropolitan metropolitan!
For the first time in 49 years, the candidate I favour in an election being held today is the Labour Party candidate. Burnham. Seriously. I genuinely think he has the right priorities, and he genuinely seems to be trying to minimise the tribal stuff (as much as he can - clearly some of it is hardwired). And he genuinely seems to like his city and his electorate. He does the boosterism properly, which is a big job of a metro mayor. Also, the Conservative candidate and the Lib Dem candidate are, er, neither really to my tastes.
In all likelihood I won't get round to it, mind you. The election is not exactly on a knife edge.
Hold on. Are we missing the big story. Rishi called the GE on Monday, didn't he? It was apparently bolted on according to X. What date did he plump for eventually.
A Tory Lord confirmed to me yesterday that "he hasn't decided yet". How's that for insight?
Hold on. Are we missing the big story. Rishi called the GE on Monday, didn't he? It was apparently bolted on according to X. What date did he plump for eventually.
FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.
No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’
Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.
But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?
I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.
If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.
Think on these things.
Let's have some context here. You are faking offence over a comment which was part of a string of posts which called out a racist trope you made about the PM and your racist trope was not only unacceptable but it united people across the political divide in their condemnation.
You were in a hole, you should have stopped digging, you should not have doubled down.
This forum should want to attract women and young people. It should not seek to attract racists.
To be honest I think an apology from @Heathener would be appropriate following her widely condemned and, as you say right across the political divide, for her uncalled for comments about Sunak
You can attack Sunak over many things but racism is not one
Yes, I agree with you. I think an apology would have just put it all to bed and moved on. But she just doubled down and went on the attack.
It unified posters across the political divide here in their condemnation. A rarity.
Heathener is a sanctimonious pain in the arse but we don't know that they are incorrect. People just want them cancelled for wrongthink.
I genuinely believe @Heathener might be a marvellous comic creation. The outright racism was a brilliant move, and now the sudden.effrontery at being called “my luv”? Superb
Also she actually used the word bricolage - in italics like that - and she claims to keep boiled water in a thermos
They is a genius sock puppet and I salute the puppeteer
FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.
No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’
Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.
But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?
I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.
If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.
Think on these things.
Let's have some context here. You are faking offence over a comment which was part of a string of posts which called out a racist trope you made about the PM and your racist trope was not only unacceptable but it united people across the political divide in their condemnation.
You were in a hole, you should have stopped digging, you should not have doubled down.
This forum should want to attract women and young people. It should not seek to attract racists.
To be honest I think an apology from @Heathener would be appropriate following her widely condemned and, as you say right across the political divide, for her uncalled for comments about Sunak
You can attack Sunak over many things but racism is not one
Yes, I agree with you. I think an apology would have just put it all to bed and moved on. But she just doubled down and went on the attack.
It unified posters across the political divide here in their condemnation. A rarity.
Heathener is a sanctimonious pain in the arse but we don't know that they are incorrect. People just want them cancelled for wrongthink.
I genuinely believe @Heathener might be a marvellous comic creation. The outright racism was a brilliant move, and now the sudden.effrontery at being called “my luv”? Superb
Also she actually used the word bricolage - in italics like that - and she claims to keep boiled water in a thermos
They is a genius sock puppet and I salute the puppeteer
Oh god I think you might be right and as we speak there are three frat boys high-fiving that "she" is giving us all the run-around.
I'd assumed she is too. At the very least, she chooses her words very carefully to convey a certain impression and/or provoke a certain response and I suspect she chuckles to herself in satisfaction at the end of a well-crafted post. Nothing wrong with that of course - all adds to the colour of the site; she certainly wouldn't be the only poster who sometimes posts largely to provoke a reaction; and almost all of us give only a very partial picture of ourselves.
Most people on here post as themselves but some construct a 'persona' to do it. Heathener is one of the latter group. Creating a persona gives you a certain power and freedom (if you're good at it) but the downside is not being taken seriously and also you won't be able to make authentic connections with anybody.
FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.
No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’
Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.
But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?
I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.
If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.
Think on these things.
Let's have some context here. You are faking offence over a comment which was part of a string of posts which called out a racist trope you made about the PM and your racist trope was not only unacceptable but it united people across the political divide in their condemnation.
You were in a hole, you should have stopped digging, you should not have doubled down.
This forum should want to attract women and young people. It should not seek to attract racists.
To be honest I think an apology from @Heathener would be appropriate following her widely condemned and, as you say right across the political divide, for her uncalled for comments about Sunak
You can attack Sunak over many things but racism is not one
Yes, I agree with you. I think an apology would have just put it all to bed and moved on. But she just doubled down and went on the attack.
It unified posters across the political divide here in their condemnation. A rarity.
Heathener is a sanctimonious pain in the arse but we don't know that they are incorrect. People just want them cancelled for wrongthink.
I genuinely believe @Heathener might be a marvellous comic creation. The outright racism was a brilliant move, and now the sudden.effrontery at being called “my luv”? Superb
Also she actually used the word bricolage - in italics like that - and she claims to keep boiled water in a thermos
They is a genius sock puppet and I salute the puppeteer
@Leon - On an entirely separate subject - related to recent discussions on the subject of the numinous - my daughter bought me a book today. Almost makes me wonder if she is stalking my conversations on here:
650 noomy places. It's very lovely, anyway. You will be interested to know that there is an entire chapter on West Cornwall, which is as much as Lancashire and Yorkshire get combined.
Fantastic
And good call on Cornwall. West Cornwall in particular is one of the noomiest places on earth - eg the cliff side tin mines of Botallack. They are fantastically beautiful and spectacular, at the same time you know that their shafts go down to horrifying undersea tunnels where men and boys toiled naked hewing tin, with the constant threat of drowning from the booming seas above. During great storms the men would stop work and listen to the rolling boulders overhead
FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.
No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’
Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.
But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?
I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.
If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.
Think on these things.
Let's have some context here. You are faking offence over a comment which was part of a string of posts which called out a racist trope you made about the PM and your racist trope was not only unacceptable but it united people across the political divide in their condemnation.
You were in a hole, you should have stopped digging, you should not have doubled down.
This forum should want to attract women and young people. It should not seek to attract racists.
To be honest I think an apology from @Heathener would be appropriate following her widely condemned and, as you say right across the political divide, for her uncalled for comments about Sunak
You can attack Sunak over many things but racism is not one
Yes, I agree with you. I think an apology would have just put it all to bed and moved on. But she just doubled down and went on the attack.
It unified posters across the political divide here in their condemnation. A rarity.
Heathener is a sanctimonious pain in the arse but we don't know that they are incorrect. People just want them cancelled for wrongthink.
Spot on.
Time for the pearl-clutchers to calm down and give Heathener a break - we can't all maintain the high ethical posting standards of a Leon.
Very little comment on here on the fucking disgraceful video published on the Home Office X account yesterday of asylum seekers being rounded up, handcuffed, and put in the back of vans in preparation for their deportation to Rwanda.
Surely this should not be allowed? It's absolutely blatant electioneering (of the gutter brand) by a government department the day before the elections. Doesn't this break all sorts of purdah rules and, even if not, isn't it deeply inappropriate for the HO to openly campaign on behalf of the Tory Party so close to elections?
I'm wondering whether Labour ignored it on the basis of not giving it more publicity before polling day, but I hope that a big fuss is made about it subsequently - letters to the Cabinet Secretary, Permanent Secretary at the Home Office, Electoral Commission, maybe even The Times. The PS at the Home Office has to go after something like that, and the Home Secretary should resign too.
My worry is that they're keeping quiet because they quite like the idea of using the civil service to fight their election campaigns when they're in office.
FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.
No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’
Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.
But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?
I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.
If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.
Think on these things.
Let's have some context here. You are faking offence over a comment which was part of a string of posts which called out a racist trope you made about the PM and your racist trope was not only unacceptable but it united people across the political divide in their condemnation.
You were in a hole, you should have stopped digging, you should not have doubled down.
This forum should want to attract women and young people. It should not seek to attract racists.
To be honest I think an apology from @Heathener would be appropriate following her widely condemned and, as you say right across the political divide, for her uncalled for comments about Sunak
You can attack Sunak over many things but racism is not one
Yes, I agree with you. I think an apology would have just put it all to bed and moved on. But she just doubled down and went on the attack.
It unified posters across the political divide here in their condemnation. A rarity.
Heathener is a sanctimonious pain in the arse but we don't know that they are incorrect. People just want them cancelled for wrongthink.
I genuinely believe @Heathener might be a marvellous comic creation. The outright racism was a brilliant move, and now the sudden.effrontery at being called “my luv”? Superb
Also she actually used the word bricolage - in italics like that - and she claims to keep boiled water in a thermos
They is a genius sock puppet and I salute the puppeteer
Oh god I think you might be right and as we speak there are three frat boys high-fiving that "she" is giving us all the run-around.
I'd assumed she is too. At the very least, she chooses her words very carefully to convey a certain impression and/or provoke a certain response and I suspect she chuckles to herself in satisfaction at the end of a well-crafted post. Nothing wrong with that of course - all adds to the colour of the site; she certainly wouldn't be the only poster who sometimes posts largely to provoke a reaction; and almost all of us give only a very partial picture of ourselves.
I've been had I think you're both right. I mean she has moved herself onto the list of posters I never engage with or respond to directly so now it matters not to me but yes good call about her.
I am, however, interested whenever people invoke concepts such as "British" or "un-British" and believe it needs further dissection even if other posters on here might think that discussing racist tropes is "pearl clutching".
Conservative Prime Minister doesn't care about poor people = 'un-British'. Ha ha ha. All the proper British Conservative Prime Ministers we used to have cared more about poor people than about their own mothers, as I remember. Of course it's racist. And moronic.
What idiot thinks calling it racist is 'pearl clutching'?
Are we going to spend all day banging on about the results from today's elections despite the fact that we won't know them until tomorrow? 😀
I will make one prediction. At least one party will be cheered by the result and at least one disappointed. Ok, that's two predictions... ☹️
Time to bang on about the weather again instead:
20mm of rain here since midnight. I think it might have stopped now but it's hard to tell as cloudbase seems to be at about 75m ASL and our house is 86m.
Could this become one of those 'years without a summer'?
Glorious here. Its Norwich though, so better than anywhere that isn't
Has anyone seen the video of the chap stopped by the police in the USA because his kayak stuck out too far from the top of his car without a flag on it. He refused or couldn't produce some paperwork and wouldn't wind down his window so the policeman asked him to get out the car. He refused. The policeman was so taken aback he said credulously 'Excuse me?' Up to now this was quite civilised. The policeman threatened to smash the window to remove him and did so when he still wouldn't comply.. The driver then started praying to his god for help - His god being Donald Trump.
Some people are beyond help. Who the hell prays to Donald Trump.
Well nobody who understands the theological objection to the intercession of the saints as one would hope Protestant evangelicals who form a core group of Trumpists ought. That’s before you start to ponder whether Trump would theoretically qualify for any list of the saints. But then a lot of American mega church evangelicalism is spiced with new age woowoo and a dash of secular constitutionalism. One tends to wonder whether for the Christian right the US Constitution isn’t the real Holy Scripture with the Bible relegated in importance.
In the Christian tradition, though the rhetoric varies, all prayerful addresses to anyone (living or departed) are in fact requests for them to assist by adding your prayers to their list, the final recipient of all prayers being the Holy Trinity. Prots ask their best friend to do so, catholics ask Mary and others as well. Trump is of course allowed to pray, and perhaps should do so more often.
I was late completing my postal vote today so handed it in at the polling station. I was therefore able to vote in person without voter ID.
And for anyone wondering which way to cast their vote today, here’s a bit of context for why your local council services have gone to shit. From the HoC library.
(Lucky Isles of Scilly)
[obviously this has no impact on council finances, oh no. The Tory government bears no responsibility at all. It’s all about equal pay claims]
And here for completeness is the funding curve from 2010 until 2018.
Sadly I can't vote in person as I'm about to board a flight for California but my lovely wife is doing a proxy vote for the brilliant Sadiq at the Telegraph Hill Centre today on my behalf. Good luck to all Labour candidates today.
Mine was at the Lewisham Arthouse. Always a good opportunity to snoop around quasi-civic buildings.
Church for me. The one we've just donated some neat little 'bonsai' type hedges to. So it'll be a vote for Sadiq, the great Labour candidate in this great Labour city, then a walk in the grounds to go look at them. Just hope the rain holds off.
Just want to shock everyone who has me down as a right-on lefty metropolitan liberal elite academic: I have not voted for and will not vote for Sadiq Khan in the London mayoral election
Brave. You'd better hope Hall doesn't win by one vote.
Well, I figure that London stuff doesn't affect me too much in God's Own County. I guess that's why I wasn't given a vote
Ah, a West Yorkshire Metropolitan, not a metropolitan metropolitan!
West Yorkshire? With Leeds and the like?
I'll have you know I'm in North Yorkshire thank you very much (Although the boundary is a bit odd - NYorks loops down to incorporate Selby and surrounding villages, they're so good)
Comments
I was late completing my postal vote today so handed it in at the polling station. I was therefore able to vote in person without voter ID.
And for anyone wondering which way to cast their vote today, here’s a bit of context for why your local council services have gone to shit. From the HoC library.
(Lucky Isles of Scilly)
[obviously this has no impact on council finances, oh no. The Tory government bears no responsibility at all. It’s all about equal pay claims]
And here for completeness is the funding curve from 2010 until 2018.
20mm of rain here since midnight. I think it might have stopped now but it's hard to tell as cloudbase seems to be at about 75m ASL and our house is 86m.
Could this become one of those 'years without a summer'?
Incidentally, in news that will flummox readers, the mean Central England Temperature for April just gone was 1.7C warmer than average.
I suspect there's more chance of a record-breaking hot summer as we're bound to have a long spell of high-pressure at some stage. I look forward to Leon telling us how millions will die in bubbling tarmac as UK temperatures reach 60°C.
Labour lead at 26 points in this week's YouGov poll for The Times
CON 18 (-2)
LAB 44 (-1)
LIB DEM 10 (+1)
REF UK 15 (+2)
GRN 8 (+1)
Fieldwork 30 April - 1 May
https://x.com/lara_spirit/status/1785894700496388140?s=46
Ahead of Today's local elections...
Sunak April Polling Report Card:
– Trailed by 20+% in 3 of 5 trackers
– Seen Conservatives fall to their lowest Voting Intention % with Sunak as PM in 3 of 5 trackers
– Seen his own approval rating fall to -20% or worse in ALL 5 trackers
However he did lose some swing voters and Trump will likely lose some Independents if convicted (and given his lack of remorse and contempt for the judge he could yet be jailed if found guilty).
Being last in the conventions will also help Biden, remember even McCain Palin took the lead in September 2008 after their convention until the Lehmans collapse and debates saw Obama home.
If polls in May were accurate guides to Presidential election winners we would have had President Kerry and President Romney
Could be Manchester.
(Puts on sunglasses, turns to camera, Who on the soundtrack...😎 )
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
has an average going back 2 months. 2 months ago it was 2.0%, now it is 0.8%. And in between it varied between 0.3% and 2.4%
On the other hand, the fact that Trump's small lead is so stable is a warning that the polls may remain pretty stable. These men are 2 very well-known quantities where most people have already made up their minds (unlike with all the challengers you mention). I'm not sure even a conviction in the hush money trial is going to make a big difference. And a tie in the national vote (or even sub 2% Biden lead), would probably give the presidency to Trump in the electoral college. I make them both slightly over evens, but if pushed I would say Trump is slight favourite.
One of these is my brother, who with his wife have a £500k mortgage. Off the top of my head, his payment will go from something like £1,800 a month, to £3,800 a month. So he needs to find two grand extra a month, just to keep the bank happy. There’s going to be a lot of forced sellers in that position, and a lot more who really have to cut back the discretionary savings.
As Reagan famously said, are you better off today than you were four years ago? With the inflation and interest rate rises in recent memory, the answer for millions of people is a resounding ‘no’, irrespective of how good the headline economic statistics look this month. Incumbents everywhere are in trouble, with Sunak and Biden no exception.
I also see the oil price back above $90 last month, which will only be making things worse, and is a great indicator to Western leaders of how important it is for Ukraine to win the war.
I expect Reform will be a damp squid
The fall out for Sunak is anyone's guess but frankly there is little the conservatives can do but to roll in behind him as the Mail says today as there is nobody else who could change the narrative or outcome for the party
I just do not see it
Mean anomaly 2.25
Minima anomaly 2.23
Comparison with Extreme Annual CETs:-
The highest annual min CET ever recorded was 7.24, which is 1.39 higher than normal. To beat this record the
anomaly must be higher than 0.98 for the remainder of this year
The highest annual mean CET ever recorded was 11.15, which is 1.68 higher than normal. To beat this record the
anomaly must be higher than 1.4 for the remainder of this year
Comparison with Extreme Annual CETs:-
The highest annual max CET ever recorded was 15.32, which is 2.23 higher than normal. To beat this record the
anomaly must be higher than 2.21 for the remainder of this year.
2007 was the only warmer year to this point, thanks in part to an amazingly mild April (11.25 average)
Ultimately those house price rises have consequences.
She that second or third (or?) generation immigrant, Southampton-born Old Wykehamist Sunak "belongs to that old Indian businessman mentality of Master-Slave, spuriously justified on the basis of caste but really nothing more than dog-eats-dog."
And that she found this "profoundly un-British."
Now without going all Foucault on that statement it is one that can with little effort be adapted to cast nasturtiums on everyone and anyone of immigrant stock - stupid paddies, mean jews/scots, whatever. She said he was thereby un-British, which forbids any immigrant from becoming British. It suggests there are essentially British values unattainable to those of immigrant descent.
So is she incorrect? Is the "old Indian businessman mentality of Master-Slave" what is driving Sunak to see British poor people as lesser than he is. People are a product of their environment and their own history and I get that, whether it be Rishi Sunak, JRM or Arthur Scargill. Maybe he grew up in a family which each day drilled into him that he was a master and others were slaves and they did this because they are products of the Indian caste system. Who knows.
It is the fact that she said that all this was un-British that is the issue. Who the fuck is she to say what is or isn't British. Any more than Tommy Robinson is. Or if she wants to fine, but she then takes her place amongst all the racists who also do this.
I have no idea why she did it but perhaps she believes that as she has so many black and brown and archbishop friends, she can make such statements.
So much for it being my last post on the subject.
Anyway, I have been to vote! Voting was steady (i.e. someone came in as me and my flatmate left). Just one Labour teller. I am supremely confident that two of my votes will not be for the winning candidate.
The mortgage thing is a slow moving timebomb in which every month more and more voters come off their old deals and find their costs doubling. Mine is due March next year and I doubt I'll escape it.
Sunak crowing that he's brought inflation down to 3.whatever percent means absolutely cock all to me and anyone else with a mortgage whose monthly costs are about to double.
From a business perspective, every company I know is either doing layoffs or hiring freezes. Investment postponed indefinitely - all in survival mode.
The first couple of pages were taken up with how to get a postal vote. Given the leaflet arrived some time after the deadline to apply for a postal vote, it didn't immediately impress me with the competency of those running said combined authority.
There was a page about voter ID, listing all the acceptable forms, and also some stuff on how to fill in the ballot paper (fair enough).
Then it was on to the real meat of the publication, pages from each candidate. Based on their ability to send in artwork at the correct resolution and format, this was a clear win for the Tories, Reform and the Independent, and a particularly poor effort by the Green (quite badly pixelated).
Moving on to policy, we got large helpings of motherhood and apple pie (virtually everyone is apparently going to fix the potholes - the independent's text implying his skillset was to go off and personally start shoveling tarmac). Allmost all of them want more government money to spend on local transport etc etc.
It wasn't really possible to gauge what the independent was intending to do, other than be independent. That possibly cost him my vote - if he'd actually got some policies (beyond fixing potholes) I would have at least considered if he might be suitable.
The only person with an agenda beyond motherhood, apple pie and more government money was the Refom candidate, who devoted his page to saying he thought the combined authority is a stupid idea nobody other than politicians wanted and he would like to abolish it. I suspect he's a loon (a quick Google suggests he's a "colourful" character , but on the basis that I entirely agree with him about the pointlessness of it all, I think he's getting my vote.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-house-price-index-for-february-2024/uk-house-price-index-england-february-2024#price-change
What would have been much more useful to me would have been to have been taught about what you could call I suppose household mathematics. For example, how debt works in terms of mortgages and credit cards in particular. I'm quite fortunate that my mortgage is relatively small now - under £100k - but after re-mortgaging in November my monthly payments have gone up by £150 a month.
And what I also don't understand is once the £830 a month payment has gone off the balance, why £420 in interest is immediately slapped back on.
I've got a brain in my head so if I really wanted to understand it I could find out, but I just kind of shrug and accept it resignedly. If I thought about it in too much detail I'd probably want to man a barricade somewhere or something. Put some bankers to the pitchfork.
To be honest, it’s the only thing he’s done that I can enthusiastically get behind.
No one noticed this. Tsk
Voted Godden for the PCC, Henry needs to go and I can't see Ward (LD) doing much.
I have not voted for and will not vote for Sadiq Khan in the London mayoral election
However confusingly we have a PCC election for Cumbria police commissioner. The big news is that because of this thrilling contest the craft club in the village is unable to meet, the village hall being taken over for this purpose. The severe cost of rural democracy.
Some people are beyond help. Who the hell prays to Donald Trump.
I am, however, interested whenever people invoke concepts such as "British" or "un-British" and believe it needs further dissection even if other posters on here might think that discussing racist tropes is "pearl clutching".
Even if she isn’t a sock puppet created by talented surrealists she is now so ridiculous - a racist Postwoman who travels the world winning literary prizes for her warm water thermos work, she really isn’t worth getting riled by
Enjoy the theatre instead
Never previously, however, has one featured Donald Trump as a deity.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/napoleon-s-penis-size-confirmed-channel-4-documentary-calls-the-artifact-very-small-9235101.html
Because I don't live in London.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/donald-trump-london-has-opened-its-doors-to-jihad/ar-AA1o0jKZ?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=710d37c73c974861f628c0104f45f51b&ei=16
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Magical-Britain-Enchanted-Mystical-strongholds/dp/1910636304/ref=sr_1_1?adgrpid=1173179845724049&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.H3_KEpXfhWQY7_OlpaOgph8QU7cZ1HFGdgZOPAfdY9l3Do70xIGFWvsL6Byr86z-tdlKbnRCpplCDMEuoRPK872WtWEnb2WlIV1poxu5HU65qzPpSAKvJpG7JSbcC3XBEavaY4Y2ijXZ5coqDuF70A.ixqPtlLK_BmE_ui61rBxgZ40Ylajk76q8aTdEfMoHK0&dib_tag=se&hvadid=73323949239458&hvbmt=be&hvdev=c&hvlocphy=133607&hvnetw=o&hvqmt=e&hvtargid=kwd-73323907205370:loc-188&hydadcr=24435_2219445&keywords=magical+britain+rob+wildwood&qid=1714638459&sr=8-1
650 noomy places. It's very lovely, anyway. You will be interested to know that there is an entire chapter on West Cornwall, which is as much as Lancashire and Yorkshire get combined.
Surely this should not be allowed? It's absolutely blatant electioneering (of the gutter brand) by a government department the day before the elections. Doesn't this break all sorts of purdah rules and, even if not, isn't it deeply inappropriate for the HO to openly campaign on behalf of the Tory Party so close to elections?
Interesting chat with a colleague this morning. She had a panic about having ID with her married name but electoral roll still with unmarried name. Then realised she had updated herself on the electoral roll after all. But I expect this will catch a few newly married women.
And her husband's only ID is an Irish passport. Would they accept that? The website is ambiguous. So he will give it a go and see if it's accepted.
- Street will win by a margin of around 5%, thanks to split ticket voting by those voting Lab in the local/PCC elections, plus the impact of the independent candidate Yakoob.
- Yakoob will pick up about 5% of the total vote after a very visible campaign in areas with significant Muslim populations.
As it happens, I'm not even in the great metropolis of Selby (though not far away and within the consituency and the old district council).
With higher house prices being an inevitable consequence with all the damage that has brought to the economy and society generally.
Now for those who only took on their mortgage towards the end of that period there may be some sympathy but for anyone who had a mortgage before Northern Rock crashed then they've been among the great gainers and are worthy of no sympathy now.
Contrast with HMRC who by and large rein it in despite copious material they could use if they wished. They consider this sort of blatant showing off rather infra dig.
Also, the Conservative candidate and the Lib Dem candidate are, er, neither really to my tastes.
In all likelihood I won't get round to it, mind you. The election is not exactly on a knife edge.
We are all just prisoners here
Of our own device.
And good call on Cornwall. West Cornwall in particular is one of the noomiest places on earth - eg the cliff side tin mines of Botallack. They are fantastically beautiful and spectacular, at the same time you know that their shafts go down to horrifying undersea tunnels where men and boys toiled naked hewing tin, with the constant threat of drowning from the booming seas above. During great storms the men would stop work and listen to the rolling boulders overhead
Noom factor 8.9
Napoleon Solo, in fact
My worry is that they're keeping quiet because they quite like the idea of using the civil service to fight their election campaigns when they're in office.
Of course it's racist. And moronic.
What idiot thinks calling it racist is 'pearl clutching'?
I'll have you know I'm in North Yorkshire thank you very much
(Although the boundary is a bit odd - NYorks loops down to incorporate Selby and surrounding villages, they're so good)