Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Could the Tory Jim Crow laws hand the election to Susan Hall? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,127
edited May 12 in General
Could the Tory Jim Crow laws hand the election to Susan Hall? – politicalbetting.com

New: 5% of registered voters in London lack a valid form of photo IDWard level estimates show that this the highest in Becontree – 11% (Barking and Dagenham) and lowest in Bloomsbury – 0.5% (Camden). pic.twitter.com/IpvbuIrbTW

Read the full story here

«1345678

Comments

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Good morning, everyone.

    FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,795
    It is very Republican to claim that if you lose an election it must be because of fraud. In the case of Khan, they would have a point. Hall has been nowhere near him in any poll...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    edited May 2
    QTWTAIN

    Oh, and unless they vote by post these rules probably make it more difficult for pensioners to vote than anyone else.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that the polls weren’t static but that the graphs showed a steadily downward trend in Conservative support. I was once again vilified for the suggestion but your post @Scott_xP bears it out. The Conservatives lost 2% in March and it looks as if the trend is continuing, with a Reform crossover by no means impossible.

    That Reform are only fielding 300 candidates in the locals should make us additionally wary about reading too much into the results.

    Quite how this continuing slide feeds into Moon Rabbit’s assertions to the contrary I have no idea.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    10% not 12% Monsieur Eagles
    I get the feeling the London vote might go some way to either vindicating or questioning YouGovs uber bearish Tory predictions
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    SKS fans please explain?

    Labour lead at 26 points in this week's YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 18 (-2)
    LAB 44 (-1)
    LIB DEM 10 (+1)
    REF UK 15 (+2)
    GRN 8 (+1)

    Fieldwork 30 April - 1 May


    https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1785894700496388140
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    It’s really a combination of both the voter ID and the change in voting system . It would be a massive shock though if Khan lost given Labour will have a much bigger get out the vote .
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696
    Given Bloomsbury is very Labour and Becontree is fairly Conservative, those numbers suggest that photo ID is going to hurt Hall more than Khan.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited May 2

    Good morning, everyone.

    FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.

    No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’

    Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.

    But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?

    I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.

    If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.

    Think on these things.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301

    10% not 12% Monsieur Eagles
    I get the feeling the London vote might go some way to either vindicating or questioning YouGovs uber bearish Tory predictions

    Oops.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    It is very Republican to claim that if you lose an election it must be because of fraud. In the case of Khan, they would have a point. Hall has been nowhere near him in any poll...

    Despite our full-on gerrymandering they still stole the election from us.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Morning all, and happy Election Day!

    Best of luck to anyone here who’s standing, from any party, and hope everyone who’s canvassing or otherwise helping out has a good day.

    Next election will be for Parliament.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,795

    SKS fans please explain?

    Labour lead at 26 points in this week's YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 18 (-2)
    LAB 44 (-1)
    LIB DEM 10 (+1)
    REF UK 15 (+2)
    GRN 8 (+1)

    Fieldwork 30 April - 1 May


    https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1785894700496388140

    There are two worlds.

    Hopium: Houchen and possibly Street cling on, HUGE MOMENTUM, the economy is brilliant again, Rwanda! and people now realise that Rayner and therefore Labour are all crooks.
    Reality: ReFUK are now within MOE of the Tories, and Farage reported to be coming back. A narrow Houchen win is a 20 point swing which means demolition at the GE, real economy still crappy as people struggle to pay the Truss Tax on their mortgage / rent

    I know that the 5 remaining Tory voters - all on here apparently - think hopium is real. Sadly for you / happily for everyone other than you it is not. Your disgrace of a party is getting what's coming to it and there's nothing you can do to stop it.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,795
    Heathener said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.

    No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’

    Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.

    But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?

    I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.

    If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.

    Think on these things.
    The problem with calling everyone love is that if you aren't used to it - or not from war of the roses country - it absolutely is false.

    I genuinely do call people love - men and women - though even I tend to do it more for effect these days because its 2024 and the world has moved on.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,797
    edited May 2
    No, and it won’t even be close. I expect Hall to lose by 15 points.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,593
    The clear Tory attempt to gerrymander can be seen in the decision they took not to change the voting system for the London Assembly elections because it favours them. Going to FPTP for that would mean a permanent Labour majority.

    If Labour does win the GE maybe they should revert to the old STV process for everywhere except the London Assembly, where FPTP should be introduced!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    edited May 2

    Heathener said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.

    No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’

    Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.

    But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?

    I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.

    If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.

    Think on these things.
    The problem with calling everyone love is that if you aren't used to it - or not from war of the roses country - it absolutely is false.

    I genuinely do call people love - men and women - though even I tend to do it more for effect these days because its 2024 and the world has moved on.
    Indeed, to be fair I call people love when I cannot remember her their name.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037

    SKS fans please explain?

    Labour lead at 26 points in this week's YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 18 (-2)
    LAB 44 (-1)
    LIB DEM 10 (+1)
    REF UK 15 (+2)
    GRN 8 (+1)

    Fieldwork 30 April - 1 May


    https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1785894700496388140

    There are two worlds.

    Hopium: Houchen and possibly Street cling on, HUGE MOMENTUM, the economy is brilliant again, Rwanda! and people now realise that Rayner and therefore Labour are all crooks.
    Reality: ReFUK are now within MOE of the Tories, and Farage reported to be coming back. A narrow Houchen win is a 20 point swing which means demolition at the GE, real economy still crappy as people struggle to pay the Truss Tax on their mortgage / rent

    I know that the 5 remaining Tory voters - all on here apparently - think hopium is real. Sadly for you / happily for everyone other than you it is not. Your disgrace of a party is getting what's coming to it and there's nothing you can do to stop it.
    Whilst a humping is certainly incoming and deserved, Reform is a white elephant. They have no local presence anywhere and won't have the foggiest where to campaign with what resources they have.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,593

    SKS fans please explain?

    Labour lead at 26 points in this week's YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 18 (-2)
    LAB 44 (-1)
    LIB DEM 10 (+1)
    REF UK 15 (+2)
    GRN 8 (+1)

    Fieldwork 30 April - 1 May


    https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1785894700496388140

    There are two worlds.

    Hopium: Houchen and possibly Street cling on, HUGE MOMENTUM, the economy is brilliant again, Rwanda! and people now realise that Rayner and therefore Labour are all crooks.
    Reality: ReFUK are now within MOE of the Tories, and Farage reported to be coming back. A narrow Houchen win is a 20 point swing which means demolition at the GE, real economy still crappy as people struggle to pay the Truss Tax on their mortgage / rent

    I know that the 5 remaining Tory voters - all on here apparently - think hopium is real. Sadly for you / happily for everyone other than you it is not. Your disgrace of a party is getting what's coming to it and there's nothing you can do to stop it.

    I don't blame the Tories or the Tory press for wanting to create a positive narrative - even if both Street and Houchen have done all they can to disassociate themselves from the Tory brand. All political parties spin. The real issue is the willingness of the broadcast media to buy the spin. It is not compulsory. They could look at the data instead. This did not happen in 2023, of course. This time last year, a truly terrible night for the Tories was presented as them doing a lot better than expected. It's almost certain the same thing will happen this time. And, in the end, it will make no difference except to undermine the credibility of the messenger.

  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,255
    edited May 2
    Probably mentioned already, but that map of who lacks voter ID is hardly lighting up London's Labour heartlands.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    Heathener said:


    I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that the polls weren’t static but that the graphs showed a steadily downward trend in Conservative support. I was once again vilified for the suggestion but your post @Scott_xP bears it out. The Conservatives lost 2% in March and it looks as if the trend is continuing, with a Reform crossover by no means impossible.

    That Reform are only fielding 300 candidates in the locals should make us additionally wary about reading too much into the results.

    Quite how this continuing slide feeds into Moon Rabbit’s assertions to the contrary I have no idea.

    Not vilification. Mockery.

    I've picked out all the polls for April for a couple of polling companies, and they show no trend at all for April.

    You are willing to point to single data points to make a point (Tory support only looks like it is still going down in the YouGov graph because of the anchoring effect of the final data point, which might be an outlier as much as it might be part of a trend) but when I've looked at more data that shows a contrary picture you completely ignore it.

    You can't be taken seriously as an analyst of the data.

    There are plenty of us willing to wear our dunces hats when we make mistakes, or are temporarily overcome by our partisan bias. Why not join us? A bit of humility is good for the soul.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    It hardly matters because the presence of Sunak or otherwise is not the deciding factor in any of these local election races – although the Tories’ best hopes, Andy Street and Ben Houchen, have been keeping any mention of Westminster politics well away from their election leaflets.

    But it is this lack of campaigning nous – a toe-curling ability to say the wrong thing, the nervous laugh when confronted – that is being talked about by Conservative MPs as a key argument for changing leader if the results over the weekend are even more disastrous than anticipated.

    Sunak’s personal ratings are low but several Tory MPs who have been campaigning in recent weeks have said they did not detect a visceral dislike of the prime minister personally. “It’s the kind of dismissiveness, out-of-touch stuff,” one MP campaigning in the West Midlands said. “It’s the perception he gets a helicopter everywhere.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/may/02/tories-rishi-sunak-elections-leader-change
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,271

    SKS fans please explain?

    Labour lead at 26 points in this week's YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 18 (-2)
    LAB 44 (-1)
    LIB DEM 10 (+1)
    REF UK 15 (+2)
    GRN 8 (+1)

    Fieldwork 30 April - 1 May


    https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1785894700496388140

    RefUK momentum will collapse by Friday given they will win barely any councillors and be even beaten by the Greens in the London Mayor and Assembly races.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069
    edited May 2

    SKS fans please explain?

    Labour lead at 26 points in this week's YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 18 (-2)
    LAB 44 (-1)
    LIB DEM 10 (+1)
    REF UK 15 (+2)
    GRN 8 (+1)

    Fieldwork 30 April - 1 May


    https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1785894700496388140

    There are two worlds.

    Hopium: Houchen and possibly Street cling on, HUGE MOMENTUM, the economy is brilliant again, Rwanda! and people now realise that Rayner and therefore Labour are all crooks.
    Reality: ReFUK are now within MOE of the Tories, and Farage reported to be coming back. A narrow Houchen win is a 20 point swing which means demolition at the GE, real economy still crappy as people struggle to pay the Truss Tax on their mortgage / rent

    I know that the 5 remaining Tory voters - all on here apparently - think hopium is real. Sadly for you / happily for everyone other than you it is not. Your disgrace of a party is getting what's coming to it and there's nothing you can do to stop it.
    Whilst a humping is certainly incoming and deserved, Reform is a white elephant. They have no local presence anywhere and won't have the foggiest where to campaign with what resources they have.
    Reform, even with Farage, aren't likely to win anywhere. They can put up lots of GE candidates, but they will virtually all be paper.

    Doesn't matter, because they can still take a decisive number of votes from the Conservatives and act as a siren dragging the blue team onto the rocks.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,795

    SKS fans please explain?

    Labour lead at 26 points in this week's YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 18 (-2)
    LAB 44 (-1)
    LIB DEM 10 (+1)
    REF UK 15 (+2)
    GRN 8 (+1)

    Fieldwork 30 April - 1 May


    https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1785894700496388140

    There are two worlds.

    Hopium: Houchen and possibly Street cling on, HUGE MOMENTUM, the economy is brilliant again, Rwanda! and people now realise that Rayner and therefore Labour are all crooks.
    Reality: ReFUK are now within MOE of the Tories, and Farage reported to be coming back. A narrow Houchen win is a 20 point swing which means demolition at the GE, real economy still crappy as people struggle to pay the Truss Tax on their mortgage / rent

    I know that the 5 remaining Tory voters - all on here apparently - think hopium is real. Sadly for you / happily for everyone other than you it is not. Your disgrace of a party is getting what's coming to it and there's nothing you can do to stop it.
    Whilst a humping is certainly incoming and deserved, Reform is a white elephant. They have no local presence anywhere and won't have the foggiest where to campaign with what resources they have.
    Forget about them in the locals. Their death ray impact in the general is the Nigel. He's coming back to front-line politics, will be all over GBeebies (reportedly not as a presenter, but he will be on it anyway won't he), and will act as a lodestone for the mad and angry voters.

    The hopium world has ReFUK voters "going home" to the Tories. And yet in 2019 they did not, and seat after seat after seat went Labour because of them. Same this time but on a national scale. A long campaign of Farage on the "news" telling everyone they have to save the country by voting the Tories out will utterly destroy the Tories.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    18% in a probably lowish turnout election would be just shy of 6 million votes.
    Sub optimal
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    Apparently the East Midlands mayoral election is the better guide looking forward .

    Of course alot of the media have like sheep followed the Tory line and its all about Street and Houchen .
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,795
    HYUFD said:

    SKS fans please explain?

    Labour lead at 26 points in this week's YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 18 (-2)
    LAB 44 (-1)
    LIB DEM 10 (+1)
    REF UK 15 (+2)
    GRN 8 (+1)

    Fieldwork 30 April - 1 May


    https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1785894700496388140

    RefUK momentum will collapse by Friday given they will win barely any councillors and be even beaten by the Greens in the London Mayor and Assembly races.
    Morning love! A lovely burst of hopium from you there.

    We both know that what you wrote was nonsense, yes?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Good morning, everyone.

    FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.

    Wasn't that Topping, luv ?

    Not from god's own county, AFAIK.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    @Heathener - fpt, does that mean your friend voted Tory last year?
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162

    Heathener said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.

    No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’

    Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.

    But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?

    I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.

    If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.

    Think on these things.
    The problem with calling everyone love is that if you aren't used to it - or not from war of the roses country - it absolutely is false.

    I genuinely do call people love - men and women - though even I tend to do it more for effect these days because its 2024 and the world has moved on.
    How is the debate being framed as Heathener is the victim here for a comment from Topping when if you follow the thread Heathener made a crass racist comment and was called out for it, and doubled down.

    Calling someone love is a regional thing. Faking offence over it to mask doing a racism is a different matter.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703
    Good morning everyone.

    I think Trump's Time interview piece is worth a (possibly 2nd?) link:
    https://archive.ph/fcCIa

    And especially the Fact Check:
    https://archive.ph/kYBxv
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    The funniest thing when visiting the Lakes was many times people saying “alright cock” ! As for luv , I think it’s quite charming.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162
    Nigelb said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.

    Wasn't that Topping, luv ?

    Not from god's own county, AFAIK.
    Yet, it was Topping. Isn't he a Posh chap ? Not Peterborough, Obvs.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037

    SKS fans please explain?

    Labour lead at 26 points in this week's YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 18 (-2)
    LAB 44 (-1)
    LIB DEM 10 (+1)
    REF UK 15 (+2)
    GRN 8 (+1)

    Fieldwork 30 April - 1 May


    https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1785894700496388140

    There are two worlds.

    Hopium: Houchen and possibly Street cling on, HUGE MOMENTUM, the economy is brilliant again, Rwanda! and people now realise that Rayner and therefore Labour are all crooks.
    Reality: ReFUK are now within MOE of the Tories, and Farage reported to be coming back. A narrow Houchen win is a 20 point swing which means demolition at the GE, real economy still crappy as people struggle to pay the Truss Tax on their mortgage / rent

    I know that the 5 remaining Tory voters - all on here apparently - think hopium is real. Sadly for you / happily for everyone other than you it is not. Your disgrace of a party is getting what's coming to it and there's nothing you can do to stop it.
    Whilst a humping is certainly incoming and deserved, Reform is a white elephant. They have no local presence anywhere and won't have the foggiest where to campaign with what resources they have.
    Reform, even with Farage, aren't likely to win anywhere. They can put up lots of GE candidates, but they will virtually all be paper.

    Doesn't matter, because they can still take a decisive number of votes from the Conservatives and act as a siren dragging the blue team onto the rocks.
    Yes, i agree, but they ain't averaging 15% per constituency even with Farage. They will damage the Tories for sure but they will be nowhere near them in vote numbers .
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,593
    nico679 said:

    Apparently the East Midlands mayoral election is the better guide looking forward .

    Of course alot of the media have like sheep followed the Tory line and its all about Street and Houchen .

    East Midlands has no incumbency factor. The PPCs may also be a decent guide as absolutely no-one knows who their PPC is so the vote is very likely to be all about the party you back (or want to keep out).

  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162
    nico679 said:

    Apparently the East Midlands mayoral election is the better guide looking forward .

    Of course alot of the media have like sheep followed the Tory line and its all about Street and Houchen .


    Labour are saying even if they lose to Houchen by 10% or less they would expect to take all parliamentary seats in that mayoralty.

    The media are also reporting that.

    What I have seen in the media has been fair and balanced. Some happy clappy over the prospect of these wins, some seeing them as pyrrhic if they win.

    I suspect overly partisan people, like yourself, want the media to report how they see things not how they actually are.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    Just voted for Keith’s Labour in Newcastle upon Tyne
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200

    nico679 said:

    Apparently the East Midlands mayoral election is the better guide looking forward .

    Of course alot of the media have like sheep followed the Tory line and its all about Street and Houchen .

    East Midlands has no incumbency factor. The PPCs may also be a decent guide as absolutely no-one knows who their PPC is so the vote is very likely to be all about the party you back (or want to keep out).

    Problem with PPC is many are happening in areas with no other elections so turnout is going to be awful . I will vote as its one of my few chances here in Eastbourne to vote Labour where in the GE it needs to be Lib Dem .
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162
    nico679 said:

    The funniest thing when visiting the Lakes was many times people saying “alright cock” ! As for luv , I think it’s quite charming.

    When I worked at Bombardier in Derby it was "aye up me duck" an awful lot. I just grinned at it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    edited May 2
    nico679 said:

    The funniest thing when visiting the Lakes was many times people saying “alright cock” ! As for luv , I think it’s quite charming.

    It depends on context. Very much like "mate" it can be used to express aggression.

    While I disagree with @Heathener comments on Sunak, I do wish the same respect for Khan. Islamophobic comments about him seem to bother folk here much less.

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    nico679 said:

    Apparently the East Midlands mayoral election is the better guide looking forward .

    Of course alot of the media have like sheep followed the Tory line and its all about Street and Houchen .

    Does anyone know the 2019 %s in the East Mids area?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,255

    nico679 said:

    Apparently the East Midlands mayoral election is the better guide looking forward .

    Of course alot of the media have like sheep followed the Tory line and its all about Street and Houchen .

    East Midlands has no incumbency factor. The PPCs may also be a decent guide as absolutely no-one knows who their PPC is so the vote is very likely to be all about the party you back (or want to keep out).

    The East Midlands mayoral election covers Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire only, I believe.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,271

    HYUFD said:

    SKS fans please explain?

    Labour lead at 26 points in this week's YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 18 (-2)
    LAB 44 (-1)
    LIB DEM 10 (+1)
    REF UK 15 (+2)
    GRN 8 (+1)

    Fieldwork 30 April - 1 May


    https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1785894700496388140

    RefUK momentum will collapse by Friday given they will win barely any councillors and be even beaten by the Greens in the London Mayor and Assembly races.
    Morning love! A lovely burst of hopium from you there.

    We both know that what you wrote was nonsense, yes?
    If Reform fail to even get second in the Blackpool South by election in almost 70% Leave Blackpool, all the Reform ramping by Goodwin and Yougov will be shown to be a damp squib
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    Taz said:

    nico679 said:

    The funniest thing when visiting the Lakes was many times people saying “alright cock” ! As for luv , I think it’s quite charming.

    When I worked at Bombardier in Derby it was "aye up me duck" an awful lot. I just grinned at it.
    I think it’s very endearing . I wonder what people from abroad make of it !
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    edited May 2
    nico679 said:

    The funniest thing when visiting the Lakes was many times people saying “alright cock” ! As for luv , I think it’s quite charming.

    As a callow and innocent 19 year old I went to Devon & Cornwall for the first time and was shocked by the locals occasionally calling me 'my lover'.

    As a devout Muslim this was doubly shocking. Just glad my mother wasn't there.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    Heathener said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.

    No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’

    Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.

    But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?

    I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.

    If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.

    Think on these things.
    Back off, bimbo
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    Right, got my passport, voting card, bag to put my bread and supper from Tescos in en route to the polling station.
    I shall report back on the briskness of Norwichs sluggishness imminently
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    nico679 said:

    The funniest thing when visiting the Lakes was many times people saying “alright cock” ! As for luv , I think it’s quite charming.

    Echt Cornish say “alright my ‘andsome’” which is kinda charming. Proper PROPER Cornish give you the full “thankee, my lover” which can set you up for the whole day
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703
    edited May 2
    Anyone care to write a clerihew about Nigel Farage standing at the General Election?

    Just off to vote.

    In order to stand erect
    Reform must Farage elect
    But poor Nigel is just a loafer
    Watching Yes Minister from his sofa

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,795
    .
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    SKS fans please explain?

    Labour lead at 26 points in this week's YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 18 (-2)
    LAB 44 (-1)
    LIB DEM 10 (+1)
    REF UK 15 (+2)
    GRN 8 (+1)

    Fieldwork 30 April - 1 May


    https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1785894700496388140

    RefUK momentum will collapse by Friday given they will win barely any councillors and be even beaten by the Greens in the London Mayor and Assembly races.
    Morning love! A lovely burst of hopium from you there.

    We both know that what you wrote was nonsense, yes?
    If Reform fail to even get second in the Blackpool South by election in almost 70% Leave Blackpool, all the Reform ramping by Goodwin and Yougov will be shown to be a damp squib
    Hopium again. The FUKkers will win no seats. It isn't about them winning seats. It is about them stopping your lot from winning seats. As they did very effectively in 2019.

    There is - as an experienced political activist like you knows fully well - a huge difference between a single by-election and a national election campaign. Farage all over the airwaves tearing your party apart on its most sensitive area. A battle for the soul of the right after the election.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,795

    nico679 said:

    The funniest thing when visiting the Lakes was many times people saying “alright cock” ! As for luv , I think it’s quite charming.

    As a callow and innocent 19 year old I went to Devon & Cornwall for the first time and was shocked my the locals occasionally calling me 'my lover'.

    As a devout Muslim this was doubly shocking. Just glad my mother wasn't there.
    Yes. Went to uni and got met with "alright moi lover" from the night security guy one night...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703
    Pro_Rata said:

    nico679 said:

    Apparently the East Midlands mayoral election is the better guide looking forward .

    Of course alot of the media have like sheep followed the Tory line and its all about Street and Houchen .

    East Midlands has no incumbency factor. The PPCs may also be a decent guide as absolutely no-one knows who their PPC is so the vote is very likely to be all about the party you back (or want to keep out).

    The East Midlands mayoral election covers Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire only, I believe.
    And Nottingham and Derby.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069

    Heathener said:


    I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that the polls weren’t static but that the graphs showed a steadily downward trend in Conservative support. I was once again vilified for the suggestion but your post @Scott_xP bears it out. The Conservatives lost 2% in March and it looks as if the trend is continuing, with a Reform crossover by no means impossible.

    That Reform are only fielding 300 candidates in the locals should make us additionally wary about reading too much into the results.

    Quite how this continuing slide feeds into Moon Rabbit’s assertions to the contrary I have no idea.

    Not vilification. Mockery.

    I've picked out all the polls for April for a couple of polling companies, and they show no trend at all for April.

    You are willing to point to single data points to make a point (Tory support only looks like it is still going down in the YouGov graph because of the anchoring effect of the final data point, which might be an outlier as much as it might be part of a trend) but when I've looked at more data that shows a contrary picture you completely ignore it.

    You can't be taken seriously as an analyst of the data.

    There are plenty of us willing to wear our dunces hats when we make mistakes, or are temporarily overcome by our partisan bias. Why not join us? A bit of humility is good for the soul.
    Depends on the time frame.

    Obviously, the weekly pluses and minuses don't need explanation by anyone- they are nearly all just noise- but how far do you have to step back to see a trend?

    I suspect a month isn't really enough, either. Go to a larger scale, and the Conservatives have been trending down for the best part of a year; either side of 25% this time last year, more like 20% now, in a fairly straight line.

    Anyone tried correlating that with the number of Conservative voters having to remortgage?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    @MattChorley

    After Sunak’s “good week” he’s now on 18% - lower than Liz Truss managed.

    Local election noise/coverage probably raising smaller parties - but that’s exactly what will happen in a general election
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,058
    HYUFD said:

    SKS fans please explain?

    Labour lead at 26 points in this week's YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 18 (-2)
    LAB 44 (-1)
    LIB DEM 10 (+1)
    REF UK 15 (+2)
    GRN 8 (+1)

    Fieldwork 30 April - 1 May


    https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1785894700496388140

    RefUK momentum will collapse by Friday given they will win barely any councillors and be even beaten by the Greens in the London Mayor and Assembly races.
    By that logic shouldn't there be a Lib Dem surge?

    I'm assuming they will comfortably have the best day vs. Reform, Greens or Tories, with the latter losing lots of seats even if they maintain some mayoralties.

    Admittedly 18% is I think a new Tory low so a recovery from that point is pretty likely.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    Au Revoir, Bretagne, a bientot, La France

    Fabulous trip. Nous retournons
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Scott_xP said:

    It hardly matters because the presence of Sunak or otherwise is not the deciding factor in any of these local election races – although the Tories’ best hopes, Andy Street and Ben Houchen, have been keeping any mention of Westminster politics well away from their election leaflets.

    But it is this lack of campaigning nous – a toe-curling ability to say the wrong thing, the nervous laugh when confronted – that is being talked about by Conservative MPs as a key argument for changing leader if the results over the weekend are even more disastrous than anticipated.

    Sunak’s personal ratings are low but several Tory MPs who have been campaigning in recent weeks have said they did not detect a visceral dislike of the prime minister personally. “It’s the kind of dismissiveness, out-of-touch stuff,” one MP campaigning in the West Midlands said. “It’s the perception he gets a helicopter everywhere.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/may/02/tories-rishi-sunak-elections-leader-change

    If Labour and the LDs have any sense, they’ll be making a point of having the leaders on nothing but trains and busses during the campaign.

    Sunak (and the SNP leader) are almost certainly going to be on planes and helicopters everywhere.

    As mentioned previously, there’s too many young CCHQ staffers who still think Boris Johnson is the PM, and haven’t yet clocked that the current PM needs a very different type of stage-management.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162
    nico679 said:

    Taz said:

    nico679 said:

    The funniest thing when visiting the Lakes was many times people saying “alright cock” ! As for luv , I think it’s quite charming.

    When I worked at Bombardier in Derby it was "aye up me duck" an awful lot. I just grinned at it.
    I think it’s very endearing . I wonder what people from abroad make of it !
    I never minded. Although from only 100 or so miles away. I found it quite endearing too.

    It was no different to when I worked at the Golders Green depot being called "mate" by people.

  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200

    nico679 said:

    Apparently the East Midlands mayoral election is the better guide looking forward .

    Of course alot of the media have like sheep followed the Tory line and its all about Street and Houchen .

    Does anyone know the 2019 %s in the East Mids area?
    The Tories trounced Labour 54.9 % to 31.8 %.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    It hardly matters because the presence of Sunak or otherwise is not the deciding factor in any of these local election races – although the Tories’ best hopes, Andy Street and Ben Houchen, have been keeping any mention of Westminster politics well away from their election leaflets.

    But it is this lack of campaigning nous – a toe-curling ability to say the wrong thing, the nervous laugh when confronted – that is being talked about by Conservative MPs as a key argument for changing leader if the results over the weekend are even more disastrous than anticipated.

    Sunak’s personal ratings are low but several Tory MPs who have been campaigning in recent weeks have said they did not detect a visceral dislike of the prime minister personally. “It’s the kind of dismissiveness, out-of-touch stuff,” one MP campaigning in the West Midlands said. “It’s the perception he gets a helicopter everywhere.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/may/02/tories-rishi-sunak-elections-leader-change

    If Labour and the LDs have any sense, they’ll be making a point of having the leaders on nothing but trains and busses during the campaign.

    Sunak (and the SNP leader) are almost certainly going to be on planes and helicopters everywhere.

    As mentioned previously, there’s too many young CCHQ staffers who still think Boris Johnson is the PM, and haven’t yet clocked that the current PM needs a very different type of stage-management.
    I have advised the Scottish Tories and SLAB to campaign using solely motorhomes.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    Happy Dogs at Polling Stations Day!

    500 losses is the benchmark. But the Tories will look to distract from their shellacking if they hold one or two of their mayors.

    Sympathies go out to any paper candidates who inadvertently find themselves elected.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,866
    While we're at it, let's talk about postal voting.

    Needs to be dialled back from "anyone can have a postal vote" to "only if you have a valid reason why you can't present yourself at a polling station". Simply too open to fraud and abuse.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,599
    Scott_xP said:

    It hardly matters because the presence of Sunak or otherwise is not the deciding factor in any of these local election races – although the Tories’ best hopes, Andy Street and Ben Houchen, have been keeping any mention of Westminster politics well away from their election leaflets.

    But it is this lack of campaigning nous – a toe-curling ability to say the wrong thing, the nervous laugh when confronted – that is being talked about by Conservative MPs as a key argument for changing leader if the results over the weekend are even more disastrous than anticipated.

    Sunak’s personal ratings are low but several Tory MPs who have been campaigning in recent weeks have said they did not detect a visceral dislike of the prime minister personally. “It’s the kind of dismissiveness, out-of-touch stuff,” one MP campaigning in the West Midlands said. “It’s the perception he gets a helicopter everywhere.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/may/02/tories-rishi-sunak-elections-leader-change

    Nah, sure I've seen him filling up his motor with petrol somewhere or other.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    edited May 2
    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    I think Trump's Time interview piece is worth a (possibly 2nd?) link:
    https://archive.ph/fcCIa

    And especially the Fact Check:
    https://archive.ph/kYBxv

    And yet Trump's lead is increasing again. The Q1 growth figures were disappointing. Inflation is proving persistent. The border issues are not getting any better and the Campus protests, mainly against Israel, are causing problems. Biden is in trouble. Trump showed in 2016 he could win whilst behind in the popular vote. Biden has a lot of catching up to do and, so far, the NY trial is not moving the dial.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    Reform will win about 3% on the day.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162
    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    I think Trump's Time interview piece is worth a (possibly 2nd?) link:
    https://archive.ph/fcCIa

    And especially the Fact Check:
    https://archive.ph/kYBxv

    And yet Trump's lead is increasing again. The Q1 growth figures were disappointing. Inflation is proving persistent. The border issues are not getting any better and the Campus protests, mainly against Israel are causing problems. Biden is in trouble. Trump showed in 2016 he could win whilst behind in the popular vote. Biden has a lot of catching up to do and, so far, the NY trial is not moving the dial.
    Bidenomics has given a huge boost to large companies but very little for smaller businesses in middle America.

    He is now also proposing some crazy tax policies, including taxing unrealised gains.

    Biden is making a hostage to fortune here. Had the Republicans selected a half decent candidate they would be streets ahead.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    Taz said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.

    No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’

    Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.

    But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?

    I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.

    If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.

    Think on these things.
    Let's have some context here. You are faking offence over a comment which was part of a string of posts which called out a racist trope you made about the PM and your racist trope was not only unacceptable but it united people across the political divide in their condemnation.

    You were in a hole, you should have stopped digging, you should not have doubled down.

    This forum should want to attract women and young people. It should not seek to attract racists.
    To be honest I think an apology from @Heathener would be appropriate following her widely condemned and, as you say right across the political divide, for her uncalled for comments about Sunak

    You can attack Sunak over many things but racism is not one
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069

    Heathener said:


    I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that the polls weren’t static but that the graphs showed a steadily downward trend in Conservative support. I was once again vilified for the suggestion but your post @Scott_xP bears it out. The Conservatives lost 2% in March and it looks as if the trend is continuing, with a Reform crossover by no means impossible.

    That Reform are only fielding 300 candidates in the locals should make us additionally wary about reading too much into the results.

    Quite how this continuing slide feeds into Moon Rabbit’s assertions to the contrary I have no idea.

    Not vilification. Mockery.

    I've picked out all the polls for April for a couple of polling companies, and they show no trend at all for April.

    You are willing to point to single data points to make a point (Tory support only looks like it is still going down in the YouGov graph because of the anchoring effect of the final data point, which might be an outlier as much as it might be part of a trend) but when I've looked at more data that shows a contrary picture you completely ignore it.

    You can't be taken seriously as an analyst of the data.

    There are plenty of us willing to wear our dunces hats when we make mistakes, or are temporarily overcome by our partisan bias. Why not join us? A bit of humility is good for the soul.
    Depends on the time frame.

    Obviously, the weekly pluses and minuses don't need explanation by anyone- they are nearly all just noise- but how far do you have to step back to see a trend?

    I suspect a month isn't really enough, either. Go to a larger scale, and the Conservatives have been trending down for the best part of a year; either side of 25% this time last year, more like 20% now, in a fairly straight line.

    Anyone tried correlating that with the number of Conservative voters having to remortgage?
    Back of a Voter ID estimate:

    I think @Sandpit said yesterday that about 1 million voters (1/2 million mortgages) would get hit by remortgaging in the next six months, so that's 2 million a year.

    That's 20% of ten million, which is about the proportion of the Conservative vote that has gone elsewhere.

    OK, the flawed assumption is that all mortgage payers vote Conservative, but that's uncanny.

    If that is what's going on... oh dear.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696
    HYUFD said:

    SKS fans please explain?

    Labour lead at 26 points in this week's YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 18 (-2)
    LAB 44 (-1)
    LIB DEM 10 (+1)
    REF UK 15 (+2)
    GRN 8 (+1)

    Fieldwork 30 April - 1 May


    https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1785894700496388140

    RefUK momentum will collapse by Friday given they will win barely any councillors and be even beaten by the Greens in the London Mayor and Assembly races.
    I think Reform winning some London Assembly members looks good for them, even if they get fewer than the Greens. If they can get a good result in Blackpool South as well, that’ll be good publicity for them.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703
    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    I think Trump's Time interview piece is worth a (possibly 2nd?) link:
    https://archive.ph/fcCIa

    And especially the Fact Check:
    https://archive.ph/kYBxv

    And yet Trump's lead is increasing again. The Q1 growth figures were disappointing. Inflation is proving persistent. The border issues are not getting any better and the Campus protests, mainly against Israel, are causing problems. Biden is in trouble. Trump showed in 2016 he could win whilst behind in the popular vote. Biden has a lot of catching up to do and, so far, the NY trial is not moving the dial.
    Yep.

    I'm wondering what contingency planning our Govt are doing, on the prospect of a man who declares himself able to declassify Top Secret material by a thought, and then give it to anyone who gives him enough money, around such things as US access to our Five Eyes material.

    I suspect the Ghost of Paul Daniels has the answer.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Sean_F said:

    Reform will win about 3% on the day.

    Probably not this day though. Not enough candidates.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080

    Heathener said:


    I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that the polls weren’t static but that the graphs showed a steadily downward trend in Conservative support. I was once again vilified for the suggestion but your post @Scott_xP bears it out. The Conservatives lost 2% in March and it looks as if the trend is continuing, with a Reform crossover by no means impossible.

    That Reform are only fielding 300 candidates in the locals should make us additionally wary about reading too much into the results.

    Quite how this continuing slide feeds into Moon Rabbit’s assertions to the contrary I have no idea.

    Not vilification. Mockery.

    I've picked out all the polls for April for a couple of polling companies, and they show no trend at all for April.

    You are willing to point to single data points to make a point (Tory support only looks like it is still going down in the YouGov graph because of the anchoring effect of the final data point, which might be an outlier as much as it might be part of a trend) but when I've looked at more data that shows a contrary picture you completely ignore it.

    You can't be taken seriously as an analyst of the data.

    There are plenty of us willing to wear our dunces hats when we make mistakes, or are temporarily overcome by our partisan bias. Why not join us? A bit of humility is good for the soul.
    Depends on the time frame.

    Obviously, the weekly pluses and minuses don't need explanation by anyone- they are nearly all just noise- but how far do you have to step back to see a trend?

    I suspect a month isn't really enough, either. Go to a larger scale, and the Conservatives have been trending down for the best part of a year; either side of 25% this time last year, more like 20% now, in a fairly straight line.

    Anyone tried correlating that with the number of Conservative voters having to remortgage?
    My hypothesis is that public opinion, as measured by opinion polls, mostly changes in discrete jumps in reaction to events that cut-through to people not paying much attention to politics.

    This can look like a gradual trend over time because, in an attempt to compensate for the statistical noise in opinion polls, we average them over time, and that will make a step-change look like a gradual change over time.

    I think the increase in Reform support in the polls is a good example of this. It seems to have increased in three distinct phases, and then plateaued, before increasing again. I'd suggest this was in reaction to three distinct events - the Truss failure/defenestration, the Supreme Court judgement on Rwanda (possibly, I haven't checked the dates closely, but I think it was a fuss related to Rwanda/small boats) which exposed the inability of the government to get a grip on the issue, and something else I haven't identified. Granted I haven't put a lot of effort into the detail of this hypothesis yet.

    What I would say about April is that anyone pointing to April's opinion polls and saying they provide evidence that supports the hypothesis that a downward trend in Conservative support is continuing is wrong. You might be right that, alone, one month isn't enough to show that a trend has stopped, but I think it's fair enough to point to a month's worth of polls in contrast to someone appealing to a single poll.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,271
    edited May 2
    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    I think Trump's Time interview piece is worth a (possibly 2nd?) link:
    https://archive.ph/fcCIa

    And especially the Fact Check:
    https://archive.ph/kYBxv

    And yet Trump's lead is increasing again. The Q1 growth figures were disappointing. Inflation is proving persistent. The border issues are not getting any better and the Campus protests, mainly against Israel, are causing problems. Biden is in trouble. Trump showed in 2016 he could win whilst behind in the popular vote. Biden has a lot of catching up to do and, so far, the NY trial is not moving the dial.
    It is in margin of error. There is no verdict yet in the NY trial so obviously that won't move the dial until verdicts in and if convictions, at least with Independents.

    The Democrats will also benefit this year from their convention being last as the incumbent party which will likely give them a bounce for Biden into September and the campaign proper.

    Remember at this stage in previous elections
    challengers like Romney, Kerry and even Dukakis all had poll leads over the incumbent President or VP but all lost
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,593
    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    I think Trump's Time interview piece is worth a (possibly 2nd?) link:
    https://archive.ph/fcCIa

    And especially the Fact Check:
    https://archive.ph/kYBxv

    And yet Trump's lead is increasing again. The Q1 growth figures were disappointing. Inflation is proving persistent. The border issues are not getting any better and the Campus protests, mainly against Israel, are causing problems. Biden is in trouble. Trump showed in 2016 he could win whilst behind in the popular vote. Biden has a lot of catching up to do and, so far, the NY trial is not moving the dial.

    Biden is in deep trouble. That means we are too.

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    I think Trump's Time interview piece is worth a (possibly 2nd?) link:
    https://archive.ph/fcCIa

    And especially the Fact Check:
    https://archive.ph/kYBxv

    And yet Trump's lead is increasing again. The Q1 growth figures were disappointing. Inflation is proving persistent. The border issues are not getting any better and the Campus protests, mainly against Israel, are causing problems. Biden is in trouble. Trump showed in 2016 he could win whilst behind in the popular vote. Biden has a lot of catching up to do and, so far, the NY trial is not moving the dial.
    Yep.

    I'm wondering what contingency planning our Govt are doing, on the prospect of a man who declares himself able to declassify Top Secret material by a thought, and then give it to anyone who gives him enough money, around such things as US access to our Five Eyes material.
    What can they do it about? Fuck all. So what's the point of planning?
  • sbjme19sbjme19 Posts: 194
    On the heading about Hunt MP, he's a nutjob from media appearances I've seen, so good to know he's (presumably) never in charge of a car.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703
    Very off-topic.

    The Evolution of Bollards:

    https://twitter.com/WorldBollard/status/1785012427949781400
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162

    Taz said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.

    No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’

    Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.

    But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?

    I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.

    If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.

    Think on these things.
    Let's have some context here. You are faking offence over a comment which was part of a string of posts which called out a racist trope you made about the PM and your racist trope was not only unacceptable but it united people across the political divide in their condemnation.

    You were in a hole, you should have stopped digging, you should not have doubled down.

    This forum should want to attract women and young people. It should not seek to attract racists.
    To be honest I think an apology from @Heathener would be appropriate following her widely condemned and, as you say right across the political divide, for her uncalled for comments about Sunak

    You can attack Sunak over many things but racism is not one
    Yes, I agree with you. I think an apology would have just put it all to bed and moved on. But she just doubled down and went on the attack.

    It unified posters across the political divide here in their condemnation. A rarity.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    Good morning everyone - thanks for another interesting header TSE.

    Still trying to locate the Shakespeare quote - one of his lost plays maybe?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    I think Trump's Time interview piece is worth a (possibly 2nd?) link:
    https://archive.ph/fcCIa

    And especially the Fact Check:
    https://archive.ph/kYBxv

    And yet Trump's lead is increasing again. The Q1 growth figures were disappointing. Inflation is proving persistent. The border issues are not getting any better and the Campus protests, mainly against Israel, are causing problems. Biden is in trouble. Trump showed in 2016 he could win whilst behind in the popular vote. Biden has a lot of catching up to do and, so far, the NY trial is not moving the dial.
    It is in margin of error. There is no verdict yet in the NY trial so obviously that won't move the dial until verdicts in and if convictions, at least with Independents.

    The Democrats will also benefit this year from their convention being last as the incumbent party which will likely give them a bounce for Biden into September and the campaign proper.

    Remember at this stage in previous elections
    challengers like Romney, Kerry and even Dukakis all had poll leads over the incumbent President or VP but all lost
    The man has already been found guilty of 9 contempts of court. Our PM was in serious trouble when he got a distinctly dodgy (because of time bar issues) fixed penalty. Starmer said he would resign if he got one.

    It is just bizarre. If he is convicted he will simply complain that a Manhattan jury and judge had it in for him and he will, of course, appeal which will take it beyond the election. Biden needs a game changer and this trial is not it.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    edited May 2
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.

    No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’

    Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.

    But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?

    I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.

    If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.

    Think on these things.
    Let's have some context here. You are faking offence over a comment which was part of a string of posts which called out a racist trope you made about the PM and your racist trope was not only unacceptable but it united people across the political divide in their condemnation.

    You were in a hole, you should have stopped digging, you should not have doubled down.

    This forum should want to attract women and young people. It should not seek to attract racists.
    To be honest I think an apology from @Heathener would be appropriate following her widely condemned and, as you say right across the political divide, for her uncalled for comments about Sunak

    You can attack Sunak over many things but racism is not one
    Yes, I agree with you. I think an apology would have just put it all to bed and moved on. But she just doubled down and went on the attack.

    It unified posters across the political divide here in their condemnation. A rarity.
    Heathener is a sanctimonious pain in the arse but we don't know that they are incorrect. People just want them cancelled for wrongthink.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Apparently the East Midlands mayoral election is the better guide looking forward .

    Of course alot of the media have like sheep followed the Tory line and its all about Street and Houchen .

    Does anyone know the 2019 %s in the East Mids area?
    The Tories trounced Labour 54.9 % to 31.8 %.
    That's the whole region, I meant for the mayoral area, presumably a little tighter?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200

    Heathener said:


    I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that the polls weren’t static but that the graphs showed a steadily downward trend in Conservative support. I was once again vilified for the suggestion but your post @Scott_xP bears it out. The Conservatives lost 2% in March and it looks as if the trend is continuing, with a Reform crossover by no means impossible.

    That Reform are only fielding 300 candidates in the locals should make us additionally wary about reading too much into the results.

    Quite how this continuing slide feeds into Moon Rabbit’s assertions to the contrary I have no idea.

    Not vilification. Mockery.

    I've picked out all the polls for April for a couple of polling companies, and they show no trend at all for April.

    You are willing to point to single data points to make a point (Tory support only looks like it is still going down in the YouGov graph because of the anchoring effect of the final data point, which might be an outlier as much as it might be part of a trend) but when I've looked at more data that shows a contrary picture you completely ignore it.

    You can't be taken seriously as an analyst of the data.

    There are plenty of us willing to wear our dunces hats when we make mistakes, or are temporarily overcome by our partisan bias. Why not join us? A bit of humility is good for the soul.
    Depends on the time frame.

    Obviously, the weekly pluses and minuses don't need explanation by anyone- they are nearly all just noise- but how far do you have to step back to see a trend?

    I suspect a month isn't really enough, either. Go to a larger scale, and the Conservatives have been trending down for the best part of a year; either side of 25% this time last year, more like 20% now, in a fairly straight line.

    Anyone tried correlating that with the number of Conservative voters having to remortgage?
    Back of a Voter ID estimate:

    I think @Sandpit said yesterday that about 1 million voters (1/2 million mortgages) would get hit by remortgaging in the next six months, so that's 2 million a year.

    That's 20% of ten million, which is about the proportion of the Conservative vote that has gone elsewhere.

    OK, the flawed assumption is that all mortgage payers vote Conservative, but that's uncanny.

    If that is what's going on... oh dear.
    The recent mortgage interest hikes haven’t had much media air time but I expect Labour will hammer the message in the run up to the election .
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    Norwich is brisk, I repeat brisk! I joined the pre Work lot though tbf
    Just the lonely Green on post outside totting up, usually Labour there too. I think given that and the lack of placards they've not bothered and the Greens will easily hold my ward. Without my vote though
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    ...how would you feel if Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer made it harder for pensioners to vote?

    There is in fact a perfect logic in tightening up postal votes. Currently you can apply for a postal vote for someone else, without their knowledge, and having the postal vote sent to a different address.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    Are we going to spend all day banging on about the results from today's elections despite the fact that we won't know them until tomorrow? 😀

    I will make one prediction. At least one party will be cheered by the result and at least one disappointed. Ok, that's two predictions... ☹️
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    Taz said:
    Curry and a beer and then vote in 60 new gender ordered AMs. Then it's Chapel innit
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    viewcode said:

    Are we going to spend all day banging on about the results from today's elections despite the fact that we won't know them until tomorrow? 😀

    I will make one prediction. At least one party will be cheered by the result and at least one disappointed. Ok, that's two predictions... ☹️

    If there isn't a giant yellow hammer and blue cardboard boxes I want my money back
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    Dura_Ace said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.

    No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’

    Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.

    But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?

    I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.

    If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.

    Think on these things.
    Let's have some context here. You are faking offence over a comment which was part of a string of posts which called out a racist trope you made about the PM and your racist trope was not only unacceptable but it united people across the political divide in their condemnation.

    You were in a hole, you should have stopped digging, you should not have doubled down.

    This forum should want to attract women and young people. It should not seek to attract racists.
    To be honest I think an apology from @Heathener would be appropriate following her widely condemned and, as you say right across the political divide, for her uncalled for comments about Sunak

    You can attack Sunak over many things but racism is not one
    Yes, I agree with you. I think an apology would have just put it all to bed and moved on. But she just doubled down and went on the attack.

    It unified posters across the political divide here in their condemnation. A rarity.
    Heathener is a sanctimonious pain in the arse but we don't know that they are incorrect. People just want them cancelled for wrongthink.
    Spot on.

    Time for the pearl-clutchers to calm down and give Heathener a break - we can't all maintain the high ethical posting standards of a Leon.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Apparently the East Midlands mayoral election is the better guide looking forward .

    Of course alot of the media have like sheep followed the Tory line and its all about Street and Houchen .

    Does anyone know the 2019 %s in the East Mids area?
    The Tories trounced Labour 54.9 % to 31.8 %.
    That's the whole region, I meant for the mayoral area, presumably a little tighter?
    It’s just Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire then .

    Averaged its 50% to 36% to the Tories in 2019 .

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    FPT: Ms. Heathener, 'love' is a general term used in Yorkshire. It's not remotely sexist. It's used for men as well as women.

    No. The comment was: 'When in a hole, luv.’

    Totally unacceptable I’m afraid. Not, at any rate, if you still want this forum a) to attract women and b) to attract younger people.

    But do you? That’s the question. Or would some of you rather it became an echo chamber for older (mostly white) men?

    I ask that sincerely because I feel it’s the way this place is in danger of going.

    If you (pl) want to attract a younger audience, with people from all walks of life - yes including transgendered people and other minority groups - then you seriously need to address the way you post things and how people are welcomed / treated.

    Think on these things.
    Let's have some context here. You are faking offence over a comment which was part of a string of posts which called out a racist trope you made about the PM and your racist trope was not only unacceptable but it united people across the political divide in their condemnation.

    You were in a hole, you should have stopped digging, you should not have doubled down.

    This forum should want to attract women and young people. It should not seek to attract racists.
    To be honest I think an apology from @Heathener would be appropriate following her widely condemned and, as you say right across the political divide, for her uncalled for comments about Sunak

    You can attack Sunak over many things but racism is not one
    Yes, I agree with you. I think an apology would have just put it all to bed and moved on. But she just doubled down and went on the attack.

    It unified posters across the political divide here in their condemnation. A rarity.
    Heathener is a sanctimonious pain in the arse but we don't know that they are incorrect. People just want them cancelled for wrongthink.
    I genuinely believe @Heathener might be a marvellous comic creation. The outright racism was a brilliant move, and now the sudden.effrontery at being called “my luv”? Superb

    Also she actually used the word bricolage - in italics like that - and she claims to keep boiled water in a thermos

    They is a genius sock puppet and I salute the puppeteer
    In truth we're all creations on here.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Apparently the East Midlands mayoral election is the better guide looking forward .

    Of course alot of the media have like sheep followed the Tory line and its all about Street and Houchen .

    Does anyone know the 2019 %s in the East Mids area?
    The Tories trounced Labour 54.9 % to 31.8 %.
    That's the whole region, I meant for the mayoral area, presumably a little tighter?
    It’s just Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire then .

    Averaged its 50% to 36% to the Tories in 2019 .

    Merci bien
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,125
    Have we had this claim yet from the Kennedy campaign?
    https://www.kennedy24.com/spoiler

    A poll which has Trump beating Biden, Kennedy beating Biden, and Kennedy beating Trump.

    'Only Kennedy can beat Donald Trump in 2024.
    “To be a spoiler, a candidate has to fulfill two requirements — first, they must not be able to win themselves, and, second, by participating in the election, they must prevent someone else from winning who otherwise would,” Kennedy explained.

    By that criterion, the only spoiler in the race is President Biden. He is the one who cannot win against either candidate and whose presence gives Trump the victory instead of Kennedy.'
This discussion has been closed.