Bring back Jon Bercow. It just shows that we need someone who faces down the HoC, isn't intimidated, and gives some active direction to the business of the House.
That everyone seemed to loathe him surely was evidence that he was the right person.
Absolutely right. Looking back, some people only objected to him because he refused to turn parliament into a rubber-stamping machine for whatever crap version of Brexit Boris proposed at the time.
Wasn't he a bit of a bully to people he had managerial control over?
Yes but that was not the reason Tories objected to John Bercow. The Cameron government hated him championing backbenchers over the executive.
Yes, it's quite arguable that the only utility privatisation that has worked was telecoms.
Rail? No.
Energy? Er, maybe. Probably no.
Water? LOL.
Yorkshire Water seems to be better run than it was in the 1990s when there seem to be regular water shortages and a massive leakage problem.
As with most things well run organisations are far less newsworthy than badly run ones.
Yorkshire Water in the 90 was terrible. They have a plenty of rain and reservoirs in the pennines, and lost huge amounts of that water through leakage, resulting as you say in hosepipe bans most summers. Saying that they have improved is really the faintest of faint praise.
A still from the upcoming ‘Around the World in 80 Daves’ where Lord Cameron goes round the world and meets 80 people also called Dave in unusual places (BBC2, Spring 2025)
Channel4 did a slightly more malign variation called something like "The Other Maxine Carr" where they met a few people who, sadly, shared the same name with the jailbird. It was quite good.
This is remarkable. Russia is out-producing Europe in military equipment to such an extent that it is able to restock its military warehouses, while Europe was unable to keep Ukraine supplied with US help. What a monumental failure by Europe.
Russia is already producing more arms and military equipment than it needs for its war against Ukraine, and is filling its weapons warehouses, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said, as reported by the German television channel n-tv on April 25.
As Russia switches into a war economy mode, "a large part or part of what is newly produced no longer goes to the front, but ends up in warehouses," Pistorius said on air of the ARD program Maischberger.
That’s what happens when you allocate 1/3 of government revenue to the military.
Bring back Jon Bercow. It just shows that we need someone who faces down the HoC, isn't intimidated, and gives some active direction to the business of the House.
That everyone seemed to loathe him surely was evidence that he was the right person.
Absolutely right. Looking back, some people only objected to him because he refused to turn parliament into a rubber-stamping machine for whatever crap version of Brexit Boris proposed at the time.
Wasn't he a bit of a bully to people he had managerial control over?
Yes but that was not the reason Tories objected to John Bercow. The Cameron government hated him championing backbenchers over the executive.
That's one reading. Another is that he was a massive partisan.
And another is that he was a smug little prick. You can to some extent get away with lots of things if you're likeable. But he wasn't.
There will be a press conference later this morning but right now Patrick is boxing up his limited edition Dalek figurines, Lorna is composing angry break-up poetry in a Tim Hortons, and Humza is trying to decide who gets custody of Ross Greer.
Humza Yousaf denies being a 'lame duck leader'. Says his decision to end the BHA, which he previously said was worth its weight in gold, shows 'leadership'.
And they would continue to happen if they were nationalised.
But Yorkshire doesn't suffer from droughts and water restrictions now as it did in the 1990s.
Oh dear. I show you evidence that Yorkshire Water is paying record fines for polluting Britain's prized waterways and you claim "it would be the same were it nationalised". It was you who claimed it is well-run. It is not well-run, unless you consider dumping raw shit into Dales rivers and beaches in holiday resorts to be wet-run.
Are we a step further towards Kate Forbes being the SNP leader at? SFAICS this would be a change that both SLab and SCon would be very keen not to see happen before the GE.
I suspect Flynn and Robertson will be scheming for one of them to get it.
I’d favour Flynn but doesn’t the SNP leader have to be in Holyrood? Hence Cherry’s greeting about being blocked from the path to power.
I think so , but bad day if that chancer Robertson and his lady Macbeth end up in charge
Labour is going to preside over some serious unemployment
“The head of Indian IT company Tata Consultancy Services has said artificial intelligence will result in “minimal” need for call centres in as soon as a year, with AI’s rapid advances set to upend a vast industry across Asia and beyond.”
FT ££
How many people work in call centres in the UK? I imagine it is not a trivia number
Few will mourn these repetitive jobs (tho the people who get made redundant might); AI will not stop there
Why do none of our politicians talk about this? This isn’t some distant prospect, this is happening shortly - “in as soon as a year”
A challenge for Reeves and Starmer
I thought we currently had a serious "not enough workers" problem?
If AI call centres can be made effective, it is perhaps good thing for productivity.
We have both a serious 'not enough workers' problem AND a serious unemployment problem.
Mr. Phil, aye, concern is that if that's maintained Russia could plausible take over the three Baltic states before significant help arrives. Europe has to have its eyes wide open on this.
Latest ECMWF forecast for the May Day bank holiday looks like it will have Leon in despair. Another area of high pressure to the west bringing a cold plunge south over Britain.
With luck this forecast will prove to be inaccurate.
I’m off abroad again. Thank fuck
Fantastic morning in Paris. Bright, clear, sunny day. Walked from one side of the AdT to the other, a couple of kilometres in total. Paris looking magnificent. Everyone had a spring in their step, big smiles all round. Had a quick coffee near Rue Francois 1er where, incidentally, I was passed by what seemed to be an endless stream of the most extraordinary yummy mummies what on earth do they feed them on a Paris, I wonder. Everyone so elegant, so what is the word, so chic. Bemoaned the fact that later today I will be back in drab old England walking out into the grotty St. Pancras air.
Oh well.
You really should be getting @Leon's fee for this.
Rayner's abusive remark wasn't aimed at people who knew it was a quote. It was aimed at the kind of yobs (of whatever caste) who shout "shortarse" at a bloke because he's of below average height. It will have gone down badly not just with short men, but also with short women, with women who are married to short men, and with women and men who have sons or dads or whatever who are short. The fact that it's unoriginal just shows she and her team couldn't even think up a good insult. Also note that she wasn't saying it to Rishi Sunak's face, and she seemed to be praising Boris Johnson. What an idiot.
And I don't know why there's reluctance to say it's similar to racism, because it is. Height and skin colour are characteristics you can't usually change and they have nothing to do with your skill or lack of it at running the country.
You'd never hear Jeremy Corbyn saying something like this. He had politics that were opposed to the Tory party's.
Indeed. Which is why Corbyn led the Labour Party to its worst defeat since ages.
That is often stated but not really true. In 2019 Labour polled 33% across GB - much higher than the 28.5% received in 1983 under Foot and the 31.5% Kinnock managed in 1987.In 2010 Gordon Brown only polled 29.7% whilst Ed Milliband received just over 31% in 2015. Corbyn was,therefore, a long way from producing Labour's worst result in terms of vote share. Whilst it is true that Labour's seat total in terms of MPs returned - 203 in 2019 - was the lowest since 1935, that was entirely due to the Scotland factor in that the party's representation there had collapsed from 40 plus to a single MP in 2015. In respect of England , Labour performed better in 2019 than in 1987 - 1983 - and 1959. It was not far off its 1992 result there.
This is remarkable. Russia is out-producing Europe in military equipment to such an extent that it is able to restock its military warehouses, while Europe was unable to keep Ukraine supplied with US help. What a monumental failure by Europe.
Russia is already producing more arms and military equipment than it needs for its war against Ukraine, and is filling its weapons warehouses, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said, as reported by the German television channel n-tv on April 25.
As Russia switches into a war economy mode, "a large part or part of what is newly produced no longer goes to the front, but ends up in warehouses," Pistorius said on air of the ARD program Maischberger.
Yet it needs to take WWII tanks out of museums, seems like propaganda. Why the hell would they be using Chinese golfcarts if they had unlimited production, or taking NK junk and Iran cast offs. Good excuse for Germans to not send taurus to Ukraine.
This is remarkable. Russia is out-producing Europe in military equipment to such an extent that it is able to restock its military warehouses, while Europe was unable to keep Ukraine supplied with US help. What a monumental failure by Europe.
Russia is already producing more arms and military equipment than it needs for its war against Ukraine, and is filling its weapons warehouses, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said, as reported by the German television channel n-tv on April 25.
As Russia switches into a war economy mode, "a large part or part of what is newly produced no longer goes to the front, but ends up in warehouses," Pistorius said on air of the ARD program Maischberger.
That’s what happens when you allocate 1/3 of government revenue to the military.
You understand it's legitimate to criticise someone for obnoxious use of language, right? That there's a difference between doing that and demanding someone be thrown out of public life?
Who is calling for cancellation? Name these warriors at which you're 'giggling'. I'm perhaps a bit sleepy, so I may have missed those calling for Rayner to no longer be an MP.
Give over. "Obnoxious use of language" - if that is a thing you want to ban - is something to aim at Nadine Dorries.
It is an entirely legitimate political action to hoist politicians up with their words, deeds and actions. A Conservative ex Cabinet Minister and direct colleague of Sunak called him a "Pint-Sized Loser". Various posters on here seem very upset that she threw that back at the Tories - shouldn't be said, not legitimate as you put it.
You want to cancel such "obnoxious" language, yes?
Lets look at who thinks it was fine - the Speaker. He is very quick to call out unparliamentary language. Is scrupulous about the rules of what can and can't be said whilst staying in order. And he found it to be in order. Because it IS in order.
Rayner seemed to be quoting Dorries approvingly, I didn't have you or Rayner down as Dorries fans.
'pint-size' not acceptable, less of this from Labour please.
Labour didn't say it. The Tories did. Worse, it came from Sunak's former close colleague.
Was musing about Sunak with a friend the other day. When I met him in 2020 I saw a guy relaxed with the burden of keeping the economy going through Covid, with best-in-class media team and advisors.
What the hell went wrong?
The 'someone else said it first' defence is really pathetic, unless you are explicitly quoting someone to criticise what they said. Rayner is atttacking Sunak here - I mean Dorries isn't even an MP any more. Or was Rayner trying to be supportive of Sunak against Dorries's insult? Pull the other one.
In your world pretty much anything would be acceptable. 'It wasn't *me* being racist when I used that racist insult against someone, I was quoting someone else'. (I'm not comparing 'pint-size' with racist abuse - just wondering where would YOU draw the line when insulting someone using someone else's words)
When it comes down to what language is in order in parliament, the arbiter is Mr Speaker. And he didn't bat an eyelid.
Had she thrown a racial slur then he absolutely would have intervened. Not that she would have quoted that. As you know very well.
It isn't my fault that the Bad Ship Tory is both sinking fast and is inhabited by political rats who savage each other.
Worst speaker in history by a country mile.
By no means as bad as Bercow. Or, IIRC, Martin.
I disagree OKC. Personally I rated Bercow and bad as Martin was he was better than this clown.
To each his own. Opinion, I mean. Admittedly I’ve been disappointed with Hoyle in recent months.
Bring back Betty or Tonypandy
I appreciate the sentiment, but there might be signficant practical problems with that.
Still better than Sir Lindsay.
Lindsay Hoyle's ok. Not as good as Betty or Tonypandy when they were alive, but better than Bercow or Martin. He gives the impression of a man trying his best who doesn't always get it right, which is more than can be said for the last two. Also, he's the first speaker to have a family member mentioned in a song by Carter USM.
Why are you all eulogising the vile Georgie Thomas? Friend of Julian Hodge and fiddler of ****.
This is remarkable. Russia is out-producing Europe in military equipment to such an extent that it is able to restock its military warehouses, while Europe was unable to keep Ukraine supplied with US help. What a monumental failure by Europe.
Russia is already producing more arms and military equipment than it needs for its war against Ukraine, and is filling its weapons warehouses, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said, as reported by the German television channel n-tv on April 25.
As Russia switches into a war economy mode, "a large part or part of what is newly produced no longer goes to the front, but ends up in warehouses," Pistorius said on air of the ARD program Maischberger.
That’s what happens when you allocate 1/3 of government revenue to the military.
You understand it's legitimate to criticise someone for obnoxious use of language, right? That there's a difference between doing that and demanding someone be thrown out of public life?
Who is calling for cancellation? Name these warriors at which you're 'giggling'. I'm perhaps a bit sleepy, so I may have missed those calling for Rayner to no longer be an MP.
Give over. "Obnoxious use of language" - if that is a thing you want to ban - is something to aim at Nadine Dorries.
It is an entirely legitimate political action to hoist politicians up with their words, deeds and actions. A Conservative ex Cabinet Minister and direct colleague of Sunak called him a "Pint-Sized Loser". Various posters on here seem very upset that she threw that back at the Tories - shouldn't be said, not legitimate as you put it.
You want to cancel such "obnoxious" language, yes?
Lets look at who thinks it was fine - the Speaker. He is very quick to call out unparliamentary language. Is scrupulous about the rules of what can and can't be said whilst staying in order. And he found it to be in order. Because it IS in order.
Rayner seemed to be quoting Dorries approvingly, I didn't have you or Rayner down as Dorries fans.
'pint-size' not acceptable, less of this from Labour please.
Labour didn't say it. The Tories did. Worse, it came from Sunak's former close colleague.
Was musing about Sunak with a friend the other day. When I met him in 2020 I saw a guy relaxed with the burden of keeping the economy going through Covid, with best-in-class media team and advisors.
What the hell went wrong?
The 'someone else said it first' defence is really pathetic, unless you are explicitly quoting someone to criticise what they said. Rayner is atttacking Sunak here - I mean Dorries isn't even an MP any more. Or was Rayner trying to be supportive of Sunak against Dorries's insult? Pull the other one.
In your world pretty much anything would be acceptable. 'It wasn't *me* being racist when I used that racist insult against someone, I was quoting someone else'. (I'm not comparing 'pint-size' with racist abuse - just wondering where would YOU draw the line when insulting someone using someone else's words)
When it comes down to what language is in order in parliament, the arbiter is Mr Speaker. And he didn't bat an eyelid.
Had she thrown a racial slur then he absolutely would have intervened. Not that she would have quoted that. As you know very well.
It isn't my fault that the Bad Ship Tory is both sinking fast and is inhabited by political rats who savage each other.
Worst speaker in history by a country mile.
By no means as bad as Bercow. Or, IIRC, Martin.
I disagree OKC. Personally I rated Bercow and bad as Martin was he was better than this clown.
To each his own. Opinion, I mean. Admittedly I’ve been disappointed with Hoyle in recent months.
Bring back Betty or Tonypandy
I appreciate the sentiment, but there might be signficant practical problems with that.
Still better than Sir Lindsay.
Lindsay Hoyle's ok. Not as good as Betty or Tonypandy when they were alive, but better than Bercow or Martin. He gives the impression of a man trying his best who doesn't always get it right, which is more than can be said for the last two. Also, he's the first speaker to have a family member mentioned in a song by Carter USM.
Well I’d say he covers up all sorts of jiggery pokery and calling precedent then changing the rules when it suits by looking confused and saying he’s doing his best, but chacun à son goût obvs.
Bring back Jon Bercow. It just shows that we need someone who faces down the HoC, isn't intimidated, and gives some active direction to the business of the House.
That everyone seemed to loathe him surely was evidence that he was the right person.
Absolutely right. Looking back, some people only objected to him because he refused to turn parliament into a rubber-stamping machine for whatever crap version of Brexit Boris proposed at the time.
Wasn't he a bit of a bully to people he had managerial control over?
Yes but that was not the reason Tories objected to John Bercow. The Cameron government hated him championing backbenchers over the executive.
That may be so, but is it too much to ask for a Speaker who is even-handed, assertive towards the Executive on behalf of backbenchers, and not a complete shit?
Latest ECMWF forecast for the May Day bank holiday looks like it will have Leon in despair. Another area of high pressure to the west bringing a cold plunge south over Britain.
With luck this forecast will prove to be inaccurate.
I’m off abroad again. Thank fuck
Fantastic morning in Paris. Bright, clear, sunny day. Walked from one side of the AdT to the other, a couple of kilometres in total. Paris looking magnificent. Everyone had a spring in their step, big smiles all round. Had a quick coffee near Rue Francois 1er where, incidentally, I was passed by what seemed to be an endless stream of the most extraordinary yummy mummies what on earth do they feed them on a Paris, I wonder. Everyone so elegant, so what is the word, so chic. Bemoaned the fact that later today I will be back in drab old England walking out into the grotty St. Pancras air.
Oh well.
You really should be getting @Leon's fee for this.
Latest ECMWF forecast for the May Day bank holiday looks like it will have Leon in despair. Another area of high pressure to the west bringing a cold plunge south over Britain.
With luck this forecast will prove to be inaccurate.
I’m off abroad again. Thank fuck
Fantastic morning in Paris. Bright, clear, sunny day. Walked from one side of the AdT to the other, a couple of kilometres in total. Paris looking magnificent. Everyone had a spring in their step, big smiles all round. Had a quick coffee near Rue Francois 1er where, incidentally, I was passed by what seemed to be an endless stream of the most extraordinary yummy mummies what on earth do they feed them on a Paris, I wonder. Everyone so elegant, so what is the word, so chic. Bemoaned the fact that later today I will be back in drab old England walking out into the grotty St. Pancras air.
Oh well.
Topping , My trip scuppered by French Air Traffic strike, I should have been landing by now
If you look through history, the effect of a technological change is very hard to predict. At least, you can make hundreds of predictions, none of which turn out to be correct.
Take t'Internet. I've been involved with the Internet since just before the WWW; and used Mosaic as a browser back in 93-4. I thought it would change things; but the amount of change, and the direction, were very different from how I thought (*). But also, I don't think many other people saw it either. Yes, we all thought it would change things. But this much?
Also, there are many predictions of tech that will change the world that turn out to be nothingburgers despite massive hype. Driverless cars being a brilliant example so far. All promise, massive hype, and lacklustre results.
IMV current AI is somewhere between the two; it's not good enough to be truly transformative, but it is very hard to see exactly how it will change things.
(*) If I had got it right, I might be very rich.
We often differ on this, but actually I agree with your summary. AI is a singularity and by definition there is an event horizon. We can’t see beyond - it’s extremely hard to make good medium term predictions - 5-10 years. They will be inspired guesswork at best; bollocks at worst
However you can make good short term predictions based on actual evidence. In early March Klarna said they had successfully replaced their call centre with AI - they explicitly said the reason they announced this was its profound implications
I therefore predicted on here that all call centre work was imperilled. Et voila
Where I disagree is when you say rubbish like: "AI is a singularity"
And I remind you of all you predictions about driverless cars.
The invention of an alien intelligence, autonomous, apparently sentient, and superior to our own, is ABSOLUTELY a Singularity
Rayner's abusive remark wasn't aimed at people who knew it was a quote. It was aimed at the kind of yobs (of whatever caste) who shout "shortarse" at a bloke because he's of below average height. It will have gone down badly not just with short men, but also with short women, with women who are married to short men, and with women and men who have sons or dads or whatever who are short. The fact that it's unoriginal just shows she and her team couldn't even think up a good insult. Also note that she wasn't saying it to Rishi Sunak's face, and she seemed to be praising Boris Johnson. What an idiot.
And I don't know why there's reluctance to say it's similar to racism, because it is. Height and skin colour are characteristics you can't usually change and they have nothing to do with your skill or lack of it at running the country.
You'd never hear Jeremy Corbyn saying something like this. He had politics that were opposed to the Tory party's.
Indeed. Which is why Corbyn led the Labour Party to its worst defeat since ages.
That is often stated but not really true. In 2019 Labour polled 33% across GB - much higher than the 28.5% received in 1983 under Foot and the 31.5% Kinnock managed in 1987.In 2010 Gordon Brown only polled 29.7% whilst Ed Milliband received just over 31% in 2015. Corbyn was,therefore, a long way from producing Labour's worst result in terms of vote share. Whilst it is true that Labour's seat total in terms of MPs returned - 203 in 2019 - was the lowest since 1935, that was entirely due to the Scotland factor in that the party's representation there had collapsed from 40 plus to a single MP in 2015. In respect of England , Labour performed better in 2019 than in 1987 - 1983 - and 1959. It was not far off its 1992 result there.
A general election is 650 separate elections held simultaneously. National % share of the vote is only relevant in showing how well concentrated your vote is.
As you accept, 203 was an absolute disaster. You can't say "we got 203 seats but on the bright side our % share was up" - who cares.
Rayner's abusive remark wasn't aimed at people who knew it was a quote. It was aimed at the kind of yobs (of whatever caste) who shout "shortarse" at a bloke because he's of below average height. It will have gone down badly not just with short men, but also with short women, with women who are married to short men, and with women and men who have sons or dads or whatever who are short. The fact that it's unoriginal just shows she and her team couldn't even think up a good insult. Also note that she wasn't saying it to Rishi Sunak's face, and she seemed to be praising Boris Johnson. What an idiot.
And I don't know why there's reluctance to say it's similar to racism, because it is. Height and skin colour are characteristics you can't usually change and they have nothing to do with your skill or lack of it at running the country.
You'd never hear Jeremy Corbyn saying something like this. He had politics that were opposed to the Tory party's.
Indeed. Which is why Corbyn led the Labour Party to its worst defeat since ages.
That is often stated but not really true. In 2019 Labour polled 33% across GB - much higher than the 28.5% received in 1983 under Foot and the 31.5% Kinnock managed in 1987.In 2010 Gordon Brown only polled 29.7% whilst Ed Milliband received just over 31% in 2015. Corbyn was,therefore, a long way from producing Labour's worst result in terms of vote share. Whilst it is true that Labour's seat total in terms of MPs returned - 203 in 2019 - was the lowest since 1935, that was entirely due to the Scotland factor in that the party's representation there had collapsed from 40 plus to a single MP in 2015. In respect of England , Labour performed better in 2019 than in 1987 - 1983 - and 1959. It was not far off its 1992 result there.
Centrists are totally blinded and have no answer at all for why Corbyn achieved the biggest increase in Lab vote share since WW2
If you look through history, the effect of a technological change is very hard to predict. At least, you can make hundreds of predictions, none of which turn out to be correct.
Take t'Internet. I've been involved with the Internet since just before the WWW; and used Mosaic as a browser back in 93-4. I thought it would change things; but the amount of change, and the direction, were very different from how I thought (*). But also, I don't think many other people saw it either. Yes, we all thought it would change things. But this much?
Also, there are many predictions of tech that will change the world that turn out to be nothingburgers despite massive hype. Driverless cars being a brilliant example so far. All promise, massive hype, and lacklustre results.
IMV current AI is somewhere between the two; it's not good enough to be truly transformative, but it is very hard to see exactly how it will change things.
(*) If I had got it right, I might be very rich.
We often differ on this, but actually I agree with your summary. AI is a singularity and by definition there is an event horizon. We can’t see beyond - it’s extremely hard to make good medium term predictions - 5-10 years. They will be inspired guesswork at best; bollocks at worst
However you can make good short term predictions based on actual evidence. In early March Klarna said they had successfully replaced their call centre with AI - they explicitly said the reason they announced this was its profound implications
I therefore predicted on here that all call centre work was imperilled. Et voila
Where I disagree is when you say rubbish like: "AI is a singularity"
And I remind you of all you predictions about driverless cars.
The invention of an alien intelligence, autonomous, apparently sentient, and superior to our own, is ABSOLUTELY a Singularity
(Snip)
But that's not what we've got. Nowhere near.
It’s near. I can sense it. I’ve NOTICED it
And many people call me the “Nell Gwynn of Noticing” (those that don’t already call me the “Jay Rayner of Place” or the “Noel Gallagher of Noom”, or the “Will Self of Self-Obsession”)
This is remarkable. Russia is out-producing Europe in military equipment to such an extent that it is able to restock its military warehouses, while Europe was unable to keep Ukraine supplied with US help. What a monumental failure by Europe.
Russia is already producing more arms and military equipment than it needs for its war against Ukraine, and is filling its weapons warehouses, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said, as reported by the German television channel n-tv on April 25.
As Russia switches into a war economy mode, "a large part or part of what is newly produced no longer goes to the front, but ends up in warehouses," Pistorius said on air of the ARD program Maischberger.
Yet it needs to take WWII tanks out of museums, seems like propaganda. Why the hell would they be using Chinese golfcarts if they had unlimited production, or taking NK junk and Iran cast offs. Good excuse for Germans to not send taurus to Ukraine.
Some of the Russian shells being sent to the front were manufactured in the 1930's. The fuses are rusted in place.
Mr. Mark, is that still the case? My understanding was Russian manufacturing has dramatically increased and they're outgunning the Ukrainians by an alarming extent.
You see Anwar, if you add up all the yellow dots, and then add up the blue, and red and green and ...oh never mind, take my word for it. The yellows are outnumbered. Honest. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cz5dy15grjnt
This is remarkable. Russia is out-producing Europe in military equipment to such an extent that it is able to restock its military warehouses, while Europe was unable to keep Ukraine supplied with US help. What a monumental failure by Europe.
Russia is already producing more arms and military equipment than it needs for its war against Ukraine, and is filling its weapons warehouses, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said, as reported by the German television channel n-tv on April 25.
As Russia switches into a war economy mode, "a large part or part of what is newly produced no longer goes to the front, but ends up in warehouses," Pistorius said on air of the ARD program Maischberger.
That’s what happens when you allocate 1/3 of government revenue to the military.
I'm more concerned about what is in our control, on what Europe does in response, and why it isn't enough to match or exceed what Russia is doing.
The OBR says that the UK government spent £78bn over two years (2022-2024) on the energy support schemes. In March the Commons Library said total UK support to Ukraine was just under £12bn, of which £7.1bn was military assistance.
Even with the latest announcement from Sunak in Warsaw, the UK spent an order of magnitude more on a futile attempt to pretend inflation hadn't happened, than on military support to Ukraine to defeat Russia.
There were lots of confident predictions of the West flooding Ukraine with enough military kit that Russia's weaker economy wouldn't be able to keep up. But the West chose not to do that.
There's no way to dress this up as anything other than a massive failure. I don't think European countries are realistic about what needs to be done.
Latest ECMWF forecast for the May Day bank holiday looks like it will have Leon in despair. Another area of high pressure to the west bringing a cold plunge south over Britain.
With luck this forecast will prove to be inaccurate.
I’m off abroad again. Thank fuck
Fantastic morning in Paris. Bright, clear, sunny day. Walked from one side of the AdT to the other, a couple of kilometres in total. Paris looking magnificent. Everyone had a spring in their step, big smiles all round. Had a quick coffee near Rue Francois 1er where, incidentally, I was passed by what seemed to be an endless stream of the most extraordinary yummy mummies what on earth do they feed them on a Paris, I wonder. Everyone so elegant, so what is the word, so chic. Bemoaned the fact that later today I will be back in drab old England walking out into the grotty St. Pancras air.
The profit margins on such deals are hard to estimate, as we usually don't learn the quantity of rockets supplied along with each launcher. But prices do seem to have been escalating. See this from last year.
HIMARS price increase doesn’t add up https://asiapacificdefencereporter.com/himars-triples-in-price-to-more-than-1-5-billion-for-no-apparent-reason/ On August 18 the State Department notified Congress of a HIMARS sale to Australia valued at US $975 million ($1.529 billion) for 22 launchers and associated rockets. The price of a similar package in May 2022 for 20 launchers was US $385 million ($604 million). Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy has defended the new figure, saying it is because of the cost of additional additional rockets.
We have done the maths and it’s still not adding up. Working out the price of individual weapons is not easy because the US tends to bundle everything in together – vehicles, launching pods and rockets.
However, in February 2022, Finland bought 35 extended range GMLRS units with different warhead configurations for US $91.2 million, which is $2.6 million for a pod of 6, or around $4 million Australian. In our package we have 90 M31A2 ER pods for a price one would assume of $360 million, if we use the same formula as for Finland, or a unit figure of $666,000 per rocket.
As several readers have pointed out from the first version of the article, the number of rockets is greater than the first glimpse of the figures suggests because they come pre-packed in a disposable fibreglass container in bundles of six. As an astute person has pointed out – thank you – this equates to an order for 1,140 rockets. The order for 60, 40, 66 and 24 units of various variants respectively are orders for pods of 6 rockets, not individual rockets. This brings the total to 190 pods, equalling 1,140 individual rockets for 22 HIMARS systems.
However, the mystery remains because on April 27, Lockheed Martin were awarded a not to exceed US $4.79 billion contract for 2 years of full rate GMLRS production. Full rate production is 10,000 per year, which works out at an average of US $240,000 per rocket. If you multiply that by 1,140 it’s still only US $273.6 million, or AU $425 million.
This still leaves around $800 million to explain because the trucks and launchers are cheap. The former are standard Army issue 6 x 6 vehicles that have some cabin protection added and the launchers are cheap throwaway containers, of which the US still has many thousands remaining from the Cold War. At the very least it would suggest that rockets are being sold to Australia and other customers at grossly inflated prices – which might explain why some countries are ditching HIMARS in favour of systems from Israel and South Korea...
And they would continue to happen if they were nationalised.
But Yorkshire doesn't suffer from droughts and water restrictions now as it did in the 1990s.
Oh dear. I show you evidence that Yorkshire Water is paying record fines for polluting Britain's prized waterways and you claim "it would be the same were it nationalised". It was you who claimed it is well-run. It is not well-run, unless you consider dumping raw shit into Dales rivers and beaches in holiday resorts to be wet-run.
Get an effing grip.
I don't disagree with you about the failings of some of the water companies nor the case for having some of them back in public ownership.
But the record fines thing is probably rather misleading. Prior to privatistion I suspect that fines were derisory or non existent - and probably stayed that way for quite a while after privatisation as well. The record fines I think reflects more on the change in attitude and enforcement related to water quality rather than changes in the water quality itself.
Britains rivers and beaches were notoriously filthy and polluted prior to privatisation and even with the slipping in standars more recently are still a million times better than they were.
Again, they are not better because of privatisation, they are better because we have enforced much higher standards.
The Supreme Court, in its last argument of the term, will consider on Thursday whether former President Donald J. Trump must face trial on charges that he plotted to subvert the 2020 election.
Most legal experts do not expect Mr. Trump to prevail on his broadest arguments. But when and how he loses may turn out to be as important as whether he loses.
If you look through history, the effect of a technological change is very hard to predict. At least, you can make hundreds of predictions, none of which turn out to be correct.
Take t'Internet. I've been involved with the Internet since just before the WWW; and used Mosaic as a browser back in 93-4. I thought it would change things; but the amount of change, and the direction, were very different from how I thought (*). But also, I don't think many other people saw it either. Yes, we all thought it would change things. But this much?
Also, there are many predictions of tech that will change the world that turn out to be nothingburgers despite massive hype. Driverless cars being a brilliant example so far. All promise, massive hype, and lacklustre results.
IMV current AI is somewhere between the two; it's not good enough to be truly transformative, but it is very hard to see exactly how it will change things.
(*) If I had got it right, I might be very rich.
We often differ on this, but actually I agree with your summary. AI is a singularity and by definition there is an event horizon. We can’t see beyond - it’s extremely hard to make good medium term predictions - 5-10 years. They will be inspired guesswork at best; bollocks at worst
However you can make good short term predictions based on actual evidence. In early March Klarna said they had successfully replaced their call centre with AI - they explicitly said the reason they announced this was its profound implications
I therefore predicted on here that all call centre work was imperilled. Et voila
Where I disagree is when you say rubbish like: "AI is a singularity"
And I remind you of all you predictions about driverless cars.
The invention of an alien intelligence, autonomous, apparently sentient, and superior to our own, is ABSOLUTELY a Singularity
(Snip)
But that's not what we've got. Nowhere near.
It’s near. I can sense it. I’ve NOTICED it
And many people call me the “Nell Gwynn of Noticing” (those that don’t already call me the “Jay Rayner of Place” or the “Noel Gallagher of Noom”, or the “Will Self of Self-Obsession”)
Bring back Jon Bercow. It just shows that we need someone who faces down the HoC, isn't intimidated, and gives some active direction to the business of the House.
That everyone seemed to loathe him surely was evidence that he was the right person.
Absolutely right. Looking back, some people only objected to him because he refused to turn parliament into a rubber-stamping machine for whatever crap version of Brexit Boris proposed at the time.
Wasn't he a bit of a bully to people he had managerial control over?
Yes but that was not the reason Tories objected to John Bercow. The Cameron government hated him championing backbenchers over the executive.
The problem with Bercow is that he was obnoxious towards those who worked for him.
You can judge someone by how they treat those beneath them.
Bring back Jon Bercow. It just shows that we need someone who faces down the HoC, isn't intimidated, and gives some active direction to the business of the House.
That everyone seemed to loathe him surely was evidence that he was the right person.
Absolutely right. Looking back, some people only objected to him because he refused to turn parliament into a rubber-stamping machine for whatever crap version of Brexit Boris proposed at the time.
Wasn't he a bit of a bully to people he had managerial control over?
Yes but that was not the reason Tories objected to John Bercow. The Cameron government hated him championing backbenchers over the executive.
The problem with Bercow is that he was obnoxious towards those who worked for him.
You can judge someone by how they treat those beneath them.
If you look through history, the effect of a technological change is very hard to predict. At least, you can make hundreds of predictions, none of which turn out to be correct.
Take t'Internet. I've been involved with the Internet since just before the WWW; and used Mosaic as a browser back in 93-4. I thought it would change things; but the amount of change, and the direction, were very different from how I thought (*). But also, I don't think many other people saw it either. Yes, we all thought it would change things. But this much?
Also, there are many predictions of tech that will change the world that turn out to be nothingburgers despite massive hype. Driverless cars being a brilliant example so far. All promise, massive hype, and lacklustre results.
IMV current AI is somewhere between the two; it's not good enough to be truly transformative, but it is very hard to see exactly how it will change things.
(*) If I had got it right, I might be very rich.
We often differ on this, but actually I agree with your summary. AI is a singularity and by definition there is an event horizon. We can’t see beyond - it’s extremely hard to make good medium term predictions - 5-10 years. They will be inspired guesswork at best; bollocks at worst
However you can make good short term predictions based on actual evidence. In early March Klarna said they had successfully replaced their call centre with AI - they explicitly said the reason they announced this was its profound implications
I therefore predicted on here that all call centre work was imperilled. Et voila
Where I disagree is when you say rubbish like: "AI is a singularity"
And I remind you of all you predictions about driverless cars.
The invention of an alien intelligence, autonomous, apparently sentient, and superior to our own, is ABSOLUTELY a Singularity
(Snip)
But that's not what we've got. Nowhere near.
It’s near. I can sense it. I’ve NOTICED it
And many people call me the “Nell Gwynn of Noticing” (those that don’t already call me the “Jay Rayner of Place” or the “Noel Gallagher of Noom”, or the “Will Self of Self-Obsession”)
Trying to live down the Grant Shapps of PB Shapeshifting though.
This is remarkable. Russia is out-producing Europe in military equipment to such an extent that it is able to restock its military warehouses, while Europe was unable to keep Ukraine supplied with US help. What a monumental failure by Europe.
Russia is already producing more arms and military equipment than it needs for its war against Ukraine, and is filling its weapons warehouses, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said, as reported by the German television channel n-tv on April 25.
As Russia switches into a war economy mode, "a large part or part of what is newly produced no longer goes to the front, but ends up in warehouses," Pistorius said on air of the ARD program Maischberger.
Yet it needs to take WWII tanks out of museums, seems like propaganda. Why the hell would they be using Chinese golfcarts if they had unlimited production, or taking NK junk and Iran cast offs. Good excuse for Germans to not send taurus to Ukraine.
Russia has also seen its arms sales plummet, due to the quality of its armaments.
This is remarkable. Russia is out-producing Europe in military equipment to such an extent that it is able to restock its military warehouses, while Europe was unable to keep Ukraine supplied with US help. What a monumental failure by Europe.
Russia is already producing more arms and military equipment than it needs for its war against Ukraine, and is filling its weapons warehouses, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said, as reported by the German television channel n-tv on April 25.
As Russia switches into a war economy mode, "a large part or part of what is newly produced no longer goes to the front, but ends up in warehouses," Pistorius said on air of the ARD program Maischberger.
That’s what happens when you allocate 1/3 of government revenue to the military.
Rayner's abusive remark wasn't aimed at people who knew it was a quote. It was aimed at the kind of yobs (of whatever caste) who shout "shortarse" at a bloke because he's of below average height. It will have gone down badly not just with short men, but also with short women, with women who are married to short men, and with women and men who have sons or dads or whatever who are short. The fact that it's unoriginal just shows she and her team couldn't even think up a good insult. Also note that she wasn't saying it to Rishi Sunak's face, and she seemed to be praising Boris Johnson. What an idiot.
And I don't know why there's reluctance to say it's similar to racism, because it is. Height and skin colour are characteristics you can't usually change and they have nothing to do with your skill or lack of it at running the country.
You'd never hear Jeremy Corbyn saying something like this. He had politics that were opposed to the Tory party's.
Indeed. Which is why Corbyn led the Labour Party to its worst defeat since ages.
That is often stated but not really true. In 2019 Labour polled 33% across GB - much higher than the 28.5% received in 1983 under Foot and the 31.5% Kinnock managed in 1987.In 2010 Gordon Brown only polled 29.7% whilst Ed Milliband received just over 31% in 2015. Corbyn was,therefore, a long way from producing Labour's worst result in terms of vote share. Whilst it is true that Labour's seat total in terms of MPs returned - 203 in 2019 - was the lowest since 1935, that was entirely due to the Scotland factor in that the party's representation there had collapsed from 40 plus to a single MP in 2015. In respect of England , Labour performed better in 2019 than in 1987 - 1983 - and 1959. It was not far off its 1992 result there.
A general election is 650 separate elections held simultaneously. National % share of the vote is only relevant in showing how well concentrated your vote is.
As you accept, 203 was an absolute disaster. You can't say "we got 203 seats but on the bright side our % share was up" - who cares.
But in terms of England alone, Labour performed quite a bit better in 2019 than was true in 1983- 1987- and 1959. It achieved a result comparable to 2010 and not far short of 1992.
Latest ECMWF forecast for the May Day bank holiday looks like it will have Leon in despair. Another area of high pressure to the west bringing a cold plunge south over Britain.
With luck this forecast will prove to be inaccurate.
I’m off abroad again. Thank fuck
Fantastic morning in Paris. Bright, clear, sunny day. Walked from one side of the AdT to the other, a couple of kilometres in total. Paris looking magnificent. Everyone had a spring in their step, big smiles all round. Had a quick coffee near Rue Francois 1er where, incidentally, I was passed by what seemed to be an endless stream of the most extraordinary yummy mummies what on earth do they feed them on a Paris, I wonder. Everyone so elegant, so what is the word, so chic. Bemoaned the fact that later today I will be back in drab old England walking out into the grotty St. Pancras air.
Oh well.
Slight disagreement between you and Leon re Paris.
Mr. Mark, is that still the case? My understanding was Russian manufacturing has dramatically increased and they're outgunning the Ukrainians by an alarming extent.
only because USA/Europe have supplied none and Russia got millions from Iran and NK, their own stuff is crap and they cannot manufacture as many as they are losing. Expectation is that by end of 2025 if sustained they will have no tanks or armoured stuff left. They are using WWII tanks and chinese golfcarts.
Parker (Lab) 43% (+1) Street (Con) 37% (+9) Virk (Lib Dem) 8% (+1) Harper-Nunes (Green) 5% (-2) Williams (Reform) 4% (-9) Other 3% (+1)
Changes +/- 10-14 April
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/west-midlands-…
It does appear along with the Savanta London that proximity to vote is causing tightening. Will this transfer to a GE? Westminster intention in these shows 3.5% swing in London and 'only' 10% in the West Mids 28 seats covered. Interesting movements, 10% UNS would make for a fairly small majority. Maybe a frisson of panic at Lab HQ? Interest in outcome piqued again
You see Anwar, if you add up all the yellow dots, and then add up the blue, and red and green and ...oh never mind, take my word for it. The yellows are outnumbered. Honest. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cz5dy15grjnt
So, looks like Susan Hall gets the Reform UK Westminster vote share, while Zoe Garbett does better than the Greens' Westminster vote share, knocking down Khan's share.
If you look through history, the effect of a technological change is very hard to predict. At least, you can make hundreds of predictions, none of which turn out to be correct.
Take t'Internet. I've been involved with the Internet since just before the WWW; and used Mosaic as a browser back in 93-4. I thought it would change things; but the amount of change, and the direction, were very different from how I thought (*). But also, I don't think many other people saw it either. Yes, we all thought it would change things. But this much?
Also, there are many predictions of tech that will change the world that turn out to be nothingburgers despite massive hype. Driverless cars being a brilliant example so far. All promise, massive hype, and lacklustre results.
IMV current AI is somewhere between the two; it's not good enough to be truly transformative, but it is very hard to see exactly how it will change things.
(*) If I had got it right, I might be very rich.
We often differ on this, but actually I agree with your summary. AI is a singularity and by definition there is an event horizon. We can’t see beyond - it’s extremely hard to make good medium term predictions - 5-10 years. They will be inspired guesswork at best; bollocks at worst
However you can make good short term predictions based on actual evidence. In early March Klarna said they had successfully replaced their call centre with AI - they explicitly said the reason they announced this was its profound implications
I therefore predicted on here that all call centre work was imperilled. Et voila
Where I disagree is when you say rubbish like: "AI is a singularity"
And I remind you of all you predictions about driverless cars.
The invention of an alien intelligence, autonomous, apparently sentient, and superior to our own, is ABSOLUTELY a Singularity
(Snip)
But that's not what we've got. Nowhere near.
It’s near. I can sense it. I’ve NOTICED it
And many people call me the “Nell Gwynn of Noticing” (those that don’t already call me the “Jay Rayner of Place” or the “Noel Gallagher of Noom”, or the “Will Self of Self-Obsession”)
This is remarkable. Russia is out-producing Europe in military equipment to such an extent that it is able to restock its military warehouses, while Europe was unable to keep Ukraine supplied with US help. What a monumental failure by Europe.
Russia is already producing more arms and military equipment than it needs for its war against Ukraine, and is filling its weapons warehouses, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said, as reported by the German television channel n-tv on April 25.
As Russia switches into a war economy mode, "a large part or part of what is newly produced no longer goes to the front, but ends up in warehouses," Pistorius said on air of the ARD program Maischberger.
Yet it needs to take WWII tanks out of museums, seems like propaganda. Why the hell would they be using Chinese golfcarts if they had unlimited production, or taking NK junk and Iran cast offs. Good excuse for Germans to not send taurus to Ukraine.
Russia has also seen its arms sales plummet, due to the quality of its armaments.
And there're the lost opportunities as well: that money could be put to much better purpose; a purpose that actually helps Russian citizens. Instead it's being sent to be destroyed in Ukraine. The US managed to leverage their massive industrial capacity built up during WW2 to become a superpower, but I doubt Russia can play the same trick.
In the medium term, it may be worth it *if* Russia grabs a large part of Ukraine that can be exploited in the future. But that's doubtful IMV, particularly if international sanctions remain. And that's key: keeping the sanctions regime in place. Putin, his minions and the appeasers will be calling for them to be lifted ASAP.
So, looks like Susan Hall gets the Reform UK Westminster vote share, while Zoe Garbett does better than the Greens' Westminster vote share, knocking down Khan's share.
That would translate to the Tories losing Chingford and knife edges in Carshalton, Winmbledon, Eltham, holding the rest.
How many people work in call centres in the UK? I imagine it is not a trivia number
There over 6000 call centres in the United Kingdom There are around 812,000 agent roles within these centres Over 4% of the UK’s working population is employed at a call centre
And a lot of those call centres are a complete waste of time and energy - all those involved in oiling the wheels of the retail energy 'market' for a start. (Although I assume since the failure of said market the number of call centre roles there has significantly reduced.)
But that’s 800,000 jobs. Gone in a year or two - and then all the other cognitive jobs as AI moves up the food chain, lawyers, bankers, brokers, designers, accountants, musicians, writers, nearly all of them - gone
This is going to be devastating for so many, yet zero people discuss it. By the end of Starmer’s term - certainly his 2nd term - we could have five million unemployed - or we could be living in an era of perpetual abundance
Again, look at offshoring. We used to worry that accountancy and law jobs would be offshored, even medicine for things like reading scans. Some were, most weren't.
AI will doubtless cost some jobs. It will also create new ones. What it will mostly do is open up services for those who cannot currently afford them. You could employ AI to draw cartoons for your Gazette columns. That has not cost any cartoonist their job. Only when the Telegraph replaces Matt will a cartoonist lose his job. Likewise you could have AI translate your AI-cartoon captions into French or Japanese, but again no humans have lost their jobs. Forget AI. Have you cost a photographer his job by taking your own travel snaps for the Gazette, or would they not have sent one anyway?
Of course AI will destroy jobs. That guy in the FT makes the same claim as you - “oh yes millions will be made unemployed in a year or two but don’t worry they will do other jobs, AI will create jobs”
He just doesn’t say what these new jobs ARE. Because they don’t exist, I suspect
If 700k of the 800k UK call centre workers lose their jobs in a couple of years, what will they all do?
Photography, by the way, has basically been destroyed by the internet. It is not a viable career, not any more
Other artistic jobs will follow
My friend's wife, I was recently astonished to learn, is a textile designer. Who is now having to find other niches because she expects it all to be done by AI in two years time. If it's all about creating abstract designers, who cares whether most of those abstract designs weren't exactly what I specified? They're quite nice and they'll do. Not necessarily quite as well, but far, far more cheaply. However, it turns out there is more to being a textile designer than designing textiles. You have to say what will be fashionable in 18 months time and also go to Paris and go shopping. I don't understand why. But these jobs will still be done by humans for a while yet.
I'm increasingly getting drawn down the midjourney rabbithole and am fascinated by the outputs it gives. Not expecting much, I asked it to draw a picture of me with my wife doing something exciting. It returned a nice picture of two pleasant looking strangers (a man in his 60s and a woman in her early 40s? father and daughter) standing in a slightly-too-narrow street proudly holding up a hand-drawn picture of a nice old car. I mean, it's quite a nice picture and a fascinating story starter. But midjourney's definition of exciting is different to mine.
I report all this not to make any judgement on AI, but just to allow you to share my baffled fascination.
It’s all in the promptcraft
Look at what results other people are getting and examine their prompts. I found one guy sourcing brilliantly weird and spooky images - I checked his prompts and there were two significant words he was using
Not sure how to do that, but I'll have a hunt. And I'll have a play and see what I can do. It seems bizarrely resistant to do some quite innocuous things. It gives you a nice picture at the expense of giving you what you've asked for. I quite accept this may well be because I'm not doing it right (though this doesn't bode particularly well for AI doing a call centre's job). Ooh - I've just seen you can give it a face reference. I've just shown it a picture of my wife and asked it to put her in an Elizabethan style green dress in front of a fireplace in a tudor manor house. Might have to go and have a lie down now.
But it wouldn't surprise me if the occasional flub like that is treated as part of the cost of doing business. (And for call centre voice interactions who routnely records those to use as evidence later?)
All call centre conversations are recorded. Source: I used to work in one.
@Douglas4Moray to table a vote of no confidence in Humza Yousaf. Could be interesting given what the Greens have said today about the first minister. Will they vote in support of the FM given they have said he is a coward and not to be trusted?
Parker (Lab) 43% (+1) Street (Con) 37% (+9) Virk (Lib Dem) 8% (+1) Harper-Nunes (Green) 5% (-2) Williams (Reform) 4% (-9) Other 3% (+1)
Changes +/- 10-14 April
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/west-midlands-…
It does appear along with the Savanta London that proximity to vote is causing tightening. Will this transfer to a GE? Westminster intention in these shows 3.5% swing in London and 'only' 10% in the West Mids 28 seats covered. Interesting movements, 10% UNS would make for a fairly small majority. Maybe a frisson of panic at Lab HQ? Interest in outcome piqued again
Both polls show Reform UK very squeezable and that squeezed vote going to the Tories.
I see Forbes was out the blocks fast: As the First Minister has terminated the Bute House Agreement, I firmly believe ScotParl is strongest when there is thorough, public debate; the Gov is most effective when its priorities match the public's & theSNP is most electable as a broad tent, representative of the nation
I thought that was an unusually carefully constructed sentence, malc. Then I realised you were quoting Forbes 😀
You see Anwar, if you add up all the yellow dots, and then add up the blue, and red and green and ...oh never mind, take my word for it. The yellows are outnumbered. Honest. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cz5dy15grjnt
Surely Anas David, Anwar is a lawyer
Oops..
Anwar is a noisy self publicist but I don’t think anyone would call him dim.
Parker (Lab) 43% (+1) Street (Con) 37% (+9) Virk (Lib Dem) 8% (+1) Harper-Nunes (Green) 5% (-2) Williams (Reform) 4% (-9) Other 3% (+1)
Changes +/- 10-14 April
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/west-midlands-…
It does appear along with the Savanta London that proximity to vote is causing tightening. Will this transfer to a GE? Westminster intention in these shows 3.5% swing in London and 'only' 10% in the West Mids 28 seats covered. Interesting movements, 10% UNS would make for a fairly small majority. Maybe a frisson of panic at Lab HQ? Interest in outcome piqued again
Both polls show Reform UK very squeezable and that squeezed vote going to the Tories.
Might be the difference between landslide territory and a fairly weak, wobbly Lab administration. First real signs that such movement possible, not yet that's its probable. However Reform might regret standing so few local candidates now
Labour is going to preside over some serious unemployment
“The head of Indian IT company Tata Consultancy Services has said artificial intelligence will result in “minimal” need for call centres in as soon as a year, with AI’s rapid advances set to upend a vast industry across Asia and beyond.”
FT ££
How many people work in call centres in the UK? I imagine it is not a trivia number
Few will mourn these repetitive jobs (tho the people who get made redundant might); AI will not stop there
Why do none of our politicians talk about this? This isn’t some distant prospect, this is happening shortly - “in as soon as a year”
A challenge for Reeves and Starmer
People hate talking to a computer.
Often you want empathy and understanding and not a chatbot.
Everyone's situation is different.
I think "chatbots" are just a way for multinational companies to avoid talking to their customers. After the 5th time a computer gives you a link to their (automated) complaints procedure, you just give up.
Yes, it's just poor customer service.
AI won't destroy all these jobs, but when we have a national shortage of workers redeployment some of these to other work is a plus. Less need for immigration.
It's hack travel journalists that need to worry most.
It’s really not. Travel journalists will be some of the last to go (amongst writers); an AI trying to pretend it’s having a human experience would be exposed and the company would be in deep shit - and an AI cannot have a human experience. Those jobs are safe for now, the ones that require intrinsic humanity and a human presence
Everyone else in a cognitive job where they don’t have to show a face and be there in the moment is in grave trouble. That’s most office jobs and a lot of artistic jobs
For some reason I've just thought of the travel writer who wrote a guidebook about something like the Canadian Rockies, and later on it turned out he hadn't actually visited them.
I don't understand. I thought the whole point was that L**n *was* AI, hence always banging on about it all the time. (I didn't name him, because it's like a fairy tale - if we do, he appears.)
I’ve actually been very restrained on AI recently and barely mentioned it - because I know it sometimes irks @rcs1000 and @TSE
I will return to generally not talking about it unless it is mentioned first
However I just HAD to cite that FT report on call centre because
1. It vindicates me. I predicted this in early March when the Klarna story came out - AI successfully taking over a call centre
And
2. It has real world implications for UK politics. Labour are gonna be in power when AI really hits, throwing many out of work. Yet they seem absolutely unaware of this, or at least they are entirely silent on it
Possibly because the effects over the next five years will be relatively limited. I'd expect quite a cull of AI companies over the next couple of years - possibly along the lines of what happened with internet stocks back in 2000 - since a lot of them are spending a lot of cash without a revenue model to back it up.
Then, just as Leon declares AI to have been overhyped, it will really start to take off.
Remember the internet stock boom of the late 1990s. The stocks collapsed in 2000 and it wasnt until the invention of the iphone in 2007 that the internet started to hit its true potential.
See also: drone deliveries. There's a curve that describes this.
Latest ECMWF forecast for the May Day bank holiday looks like it will have Leon in despair. Another area of high pressure to the west bringing a cold plunge south over Britain.
With luck this forecast will prove to be inaccurate.
I’m off abroad again. Thank fuck
Fantastic morning in Paris. Bright, clear, sunny day. Walked from one side of the AdT to the other, a couple of kilometres in total. Paris looking magnificent. Everyone had a spring in their step, big smiles all round. Had a quick coffee near Rue Francois 1er where, incidentally, I was passed by what seemed to be an endless stream of the most extraordinary yummy mummies what on earth do they feed them on a Paris, I wonder. Everyone so elegant, so what is the word, so chic. Bemoaned the fact that later today I will be back in drab old England walking out into the grotty St. Pancras air.
Oh well.
Topping , My trip scuppered by French Air Traffic strike, I should have been landing by now
Bring back Jon Bercow. It just shows that we need someone who faces down the HoC, isn't intimidated, and gives some active direction to the business of the House.
That everyone seemed to loathe him surely was evidence that he was the right person.
Absolutely right. Looking back, some people only objected to him because he refused to turn parliament into a rubber-stamping machine for whatever crap version of Brexit Boris proposed at the time.
Wasn't he a bit of a bully to people he had managerial control over?
Yes but that was not the reason Tories objected to John Bercow. The Cameron government hated him championing backbenchers over the executive.
The problem with Bercow is that he was obnoxious towards those who worked for him.
You can judge someone by how they treat those beneath them.
Latest ECMWF forecast for the May Day bank holiday looks like it will have Leon in despair. Another area of high pressure to the west bringing a cold plunge south over Britain.
With luck this forecast will prove to be inaccurate.
I’m off abroad again. Thank fuck
Fantastic morning in Paris. Bright, clear, sunny day. Walked from one side of the AdT to the other, a couple of kilometres in total. Paris looking magnificent. Everyone had a spring in their step, big smiles all round. Had a quick coffee near Rue Francois 1er where, incidentally, I was passed by what seemed to be an endless stream of the most extraordinary yummy mummies what on earth do they feed them on a Paris, I wonder. Everyone so elegant, so what is the word, so chic. Bemoaned the fact that later today I will be back in drab old England walking out into the grotty St. Pancras air.
Oh well.
You really should be getting @Leon's fee for this.
You see Anwar, if you add up all the yellow dots, and then add up the blue, and red and green and ...oh never mind, take my word for it. The yellows are outnumbered. Honest. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cz5dy15grjnt
Surely Anas David, Anwar is a lawyer
Yep, you're right. I tried to change it in the time but it wouldn't let me. Hey ho.
Latest ECMWF forecast for the May Day bank holiday looks like it will have Leon in despair. Another area of high pressure to the west bringing a cold plunge south over Britain.
With luck this forecast will prove to be inaccurate.
I’m off abroad again. Thank fuck
Fantastic morning in Paris. Bright, clear, sunny day. Walked from one side of the AdT to the other, a couple of kilometres in total. Paris looking magnificent. Everyone had a spring in their step, big smiles all round. Had a quick coffee near Rue Francois 1er where, incidentally, I was passed by what seemed to be an endless stream of the most extraordinary yummy mummies what on earth do they feed them on a Paris, I wonder. Everyone so elegant, so what is the word, so chic. Bemoaned the fact that later today I will be back in drab old England walking out into the grotty St. Pancras air.
Oh well.
You really should be getting @Leon's fee for this.
Just wrote the story. I get paid. Lol
Well done you.
I’m also right but you are far too arrogant to ever admit it. I had to physically send you evidence for the necklace before you reluctantly yielded. But that’s fine. I’m easily as arrogant as you
You see Anwar, if you add up all the yellow dots, and then add up the blue, and red and green and ...oh never mind, take my word for it. The yellows are outnumbered. Honest. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cz5dy15grjnt
Surely Anas David, Anwar is a lawyer
Oops..
Anwar is a noisy self publicist but I don’t think anyone would call him dim.
You understand it's legitimate to criticise someone for obnoxious use of language, right? That there's a difference between doing that and demanding someone be thrown out of public life?
Who is calling for cancellation? Name these warriors at which you're 'giggling'. I'm perhaps a bit sleepy, so I may have missed those calling for Rayner to no longer be an MP.
Give over. "Obnoxious use of language" - if that is a thing you want to ban - is something to aim at Nadine Dorries.
It is an entirely legitimate political action to hoist politicians up with their words, deeds and actions. A Conservative ex Cabinet Minister and direct colleague of Sunak called him a "Pint-Sized Loser". Various posters on here seem very upset that she threw that back at the Tories - shouldn't be said, not legitimate as you put it.
You want to cancel such "obnoxious" language, yes?
Lets look at who thinks it was fine - the Speaker. He is very quick to call out unparliamentary language. Is scrupulous about the rules of what can and can't be said whilst staying in order. And he found it to be in order. Because it IS in order.
Rayner seemed to be quoting Dorries approvingly, I didn't have you or Rayner down as Dorries fans.
'pint-size' not acceptable, less of this from Labour please.
Oh, is 454cm3-size better?
Only joking - your point is a fair one.
So he’s a 454ml American pint size, rather than a 568ml British pint size?
Argh - just as well I don't work for an airport refuelling company. I meant 568 ...
Refuelling planes is an exercise in maths. The pilot wants to know how many lb or kg of fuel he has on board, as energy is related to weight and the density of the fuel changes considerably with temperature.
So you need to know the weight requested, the fuel temperature, and the formula to convert into the litres or gallons which your fuel bowser uses to transfer the fuel.
The fueller, dispatcher, and pilot, will all do the same maths and cross check each other!
Though there was that ?Canadian plane which ran out in midair because of confusion with units ...
In the words of Rt Hon Lord Justice Fraser in the High Court in 2019, Angela Van Den Bogerd "did not give me frank evidence, and sought to obfuscate matters and mislead me". It's clear from today's #PostOfficeInquiry hearing that this particular leopard can't change her spots!"
And they would continue to happen if they were nationalised.
But Yorkshire doesn't suffer from droughts and water restrictions now as it did in the 1990s.
Oh dear. I show you evidence that Yorkshire Water is paying record fines for polluting Britain's prized waterways and you claim "it would be the same were it nationalised". It was you who claimed it is well-run. It is not well-run, unless you consider dumping raw shit into Dales rivers and beaches in holiday resorts to be wet-run.
Get an effing grip.
I don't disagree with you about the failings of some of the water companies nor the case for having some of them back in public ownership.
But the record fines thing is probably rather misleading. Prior to privatistion I suspect that fines were derisory or non existent - and probably stayed that way for quite a while after privatisation as well. The record fines I think reflects more on the change in attitude and enforcement related to water quality rather than changes in the water quality itself.
Britains rivers and beaches were notoriously filthy and polluted prior to privatisation and even with the slipping in standars more recently are still a million times better than they were.
Again, they are not better because of privatisation, they are better because we have enforced much higher standards.
Agree with that, but I'd also add that it is a lot easier for the government to enforce higher standards when the government isn't the one breaking them.
Latest ECMWF forecast for the May Day bank holiday looks like it will have Leon in despair. Another area of high pressure to the west bringing a cold plunge south over Britain.
With luck this forecast will prove to be inaccurate.
I’m off abroad again. Thank fuck
Fantastic morning in Paris. Bright, clear, sunny day. Walked from one side of the AdT to the other, a couple of kilometres in total. Paris looking magnificent. Everyone had a spring in their step, big smiles all round. Had a quick coffee near Rue Francois 1er where, incidentally, I was passed by what seemed to be an endless stream of the most extraordinary yummy mummies what on earth do they feed them on a Paris, I wonder. Everyone so elegant, so what is the word, so chic. Bemoaned the fact that later today I will be back in drab old England walking out into the grotty St. Pancras air.
Oh well.
You really should be getting @Leon's fee for this.
Just wrote the story. I get paid. Lol
Well done you.
I’m also right but you are far too arrogant to ever admit it. I had to physically send you evidence for the necklace before you reluctantly yielded. But that’s fine. I’m easily as arrogant as you
And yes there is an element of subjectivity
But I’m also right! Etc etc etc
I have had a cracking few days in Paris. It's a brilliant city just like most other capital cities when it's good it's great when it's bad it's ineffably Parisian.
Not my fault you need to write in primary colours for your audience and associated fee.
Mr. Pioneers, you do realise that 'cancel' culture means trying to get people to lose their jobs or forbid certain perspectives? It doesn't just mean criticising someone.
You're overusing it as much as people overuse 'woke'.
The Scottish Tories are to lodge a VONC. That's a pity. It would probably have been more effective from Labour or the Greens but I suppose they are the official opposition.
Can the Greens justify keeping the cheques rolling by not voting for it? Its a tough one but my guess is that they will find a way. Abstention would probably do it.
Hoiw about the U-boat bunkers in Brest etc.? Or the preserved nuclear submarine? Plenty of noom positive or negative, I'd think. The Germans didn't mess around with making lightweight roofs.
This is remarkable. Russia is out-producing Europe in military equipment to such an extent that it is able to restock its military warehouses, while Europe was unable to keep Ukraine supplied with US help. What a monumental failure by Europe.
Russia is already producing more arms and military equipment than it needs for its war against Ukraine, and is filling its weapons warehouses, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said, as reported by the German television channel n-tv on April 25.
As Russia switches into a war economy mode, "a large part or part of what is newly produced no longer goes to the front, but ends up in warehouses," Pistorius said on air of the ARD program Maischberger.
Yet it needs to take WWII tanks out of museums, seems like propaganda. Why the hell would they be using Chinese golfcarts if they had unlimited production, or taking NK junk and Iran cast offs. Good excuse for Germans to not send taurus to Ukraine.
Think categories. The Russians are showing little or no sign of increases in production of modern tanks, artillery, missiles and aircraft.
The things that require industrial depth to produce.
Latest ECMWF forecast for the May Day bank holiday looks like it will have Leon in despair. Another area of high pressure to the west bringing a cold plunge south over Britain.
With luck this forecast will prove to be inaccurate.
I’m off abroad again. Thank fuck
Fantastic morning in Paris. Bright, clear, sunny day. Walked from one side of the AdT to the other, a couple of kilometres in total. Paris looking magnificent. Everyone had a spring in their step, big smiles all round. Had a quick coffee near Rue Francois 1er where, incidentally, I was passed by what seemed to be an endless stream of the most extraordinary yummy mummies what on earth do they feed them on a Paris, I wonder. Everyone so elegant, so what is the word, so chic. Bemoaned the fact that later today I will be back in drab old England walking out into the grotty St. Pancras air.
Oh well.
You really should be getting @Leon's fee for this.
Just wrote the story. I get paid. Lol
Well done you.
I’m also right but you are far too arrogant to ever admit it. I had to physically send you evidence for the necklace before you reluctantly yielded. But that’s fine. I’m easily as arrogant as you
And yes there is an element of subjectivity
But I’m also right! Etc etc etc
I have had a cracking few days in Paris. It's a brilliant city just like most other capital cities when it's good it's great when it's bad it's ineffably Parisian.
Not my fault you need to write in primary colours for your audience and associated fee.
Comments
Humza Yousaf says the two ministerial positions now vacated by Lorna Slater and Patrick Harvie will "be absorbed" by other ministers.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/15/rate-of-russian-military-production-worries-european-war-planners
And another is that he was a smug little prick. You can to some extent get away with lots of things if you're likeable. But he wasn't.
There will be a press conference later this morning but right now Patrick is boxing up his limited edition Dalek figurines, Lorna is composing angry break-up poetry in a Tim Hortons, and Humza is trying to decide who gets custody of Ross Greer.
Humza Yousaf denies being a 'lame duck leader'. Says his decision to end the BHA, which he previously said was worth its weight in gold, shows 'leadership'.
Get an effing grip.
On water, I think my supplier - Severn Trent is actually the best of the privatised companies in terms of how it's run.
Greens deliver furious conference after Humza Yousaf ended the Bute House Agreement - and party leaders’ government careers.
Suggested Humza Yousaf wont be leader for the next budget.
@gorbalsgoebbels
Rage, rage, rage against the dying of the light…
Humza Yousaf looks "desperate and panicked rather than calm and strategic" – excellent column on the end of the SNP-Green deal by @chrisdeerin.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jun/30/in-charts-how-privatisation-drained-thames-waters-coffers
Whilst it is true that Labour's seat total in terms of MPs returned - 203 in 2019 - was the lowest since 1935, that was entirely due to the Scotland factor in that the party's representation there had collapsed from 40 plus to a single MP in 2015. In respect of England , Labour performed better in 2019 than in 1987 - 1983 - and 1959. It was not far off its 1992 result there.
Good excuse for Germans to not send taurus to Ukraine.
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=373469
That's another 72 at $23m a unit.
As you accept, 203 was an absolute disaster. You can't say "we got 203 seats but on the bright side our % share was up" - who cares.
He may be regretting that now ... SNP could well need her vote to pass laws
https://x.com/ChrisMusson/status/1783443339196461538
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/severn-trent-water-fined-2-million-for-reckless-pollution
And many people call me the “Nell Gwynn of Noticing” (those that don’t already call me the “Jay Rayner of Place” or the “Noel Gallagher of Noom”, or the “Will Self of Self-Obsession”)
To Tremolat!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cz5dy15grjnt
The OBR says that the UK government spent £78bn over two years (2022-2024) on the energy support schemes. In March the Commons Library said total UK support to Ukraine was just under £12bn, of which £7.1bn was military assistance.
Even with the latest announcement from Sunak in Warsaw, the UK spent an order of magnitude more on a futile attempt to pretend inflation hadn't happened, than on military support to Ukraine to defeat Russia.
There were lots of confident predictions of the West flooding Ukraine with enough military kit that Russia's weaker economy wouldn't be able to keep up. But the West chose not to do that.
There's no way to dress this up as anything other than a massive failure. I don't think European countries are realistic about what needs to be done.
But prices do seem to have been escalating.
See this from last year.
HIMARS price increase doesn’t add up
https://asiapacificdefencereporter.com/himars-triples-in-price-to-more-than-1-5-billion-for-no-apparent-reason/
On August 18 the State Department notified Congress of a HIMARS sale to Australia valued at US $975 million ($1.529 billion) for 22 launchers and associated rockets. The price of a similar package in May 2022 for 20 launchers was US $385 million ($604 million). Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy has defended the new figure, saying it is because of the cost of additional additional rockets.
We have done the maths and it’s still not adding up. Working out the price of individual weapons is not easy because the US tends to bundle everything in together – vehicles, launching pods and rockets.
However, in February 2022, Finland bought 35 extended range GMLRS units with different warhead configurations for US $91.2 million, which is $2.6 million for a pod of 6, or around $4 million Australian. In our package we have 90 M31A2 ER pods for a price one would assume of $360 million, if we use the same formula as for Finland, or a unit figure of $666,000 per rocket.
As several readers have pointed out from the first version of the article, the number of rockets is greater than the first glimpse of the figures suggests because they come pre-packed in a disposable fibreglass container in bundles of six. As an astute person has pointed out – thank you – this equates to an order for 1,140 rockets. The order for 60, 40, 66 and 24 units of various variants respectively are orders for pods of 6 rockets, not individual rockets. This brings the total to 190 pods, equalling 1,140 individual rockets for 22 HIMARS systems.
However, the mystery remains because on April 27, Lockheed Martin were awarded a not to exceed US $4.79 billion contract for 2 years of full rate GMLRS production. Full rate production is 10,000 per year, which works out at an average of US $240,000 per rocket. If you multiply that by 1,140 it’s still only US $273.6 million, or AU $425 million.
This still leaves around $800 million to explain because the trucks and launchers are cheap. The former are standard Army issue 6 x 6 vehicles that have some cabin protection added and the launchers are cheap throwaway containers, of which the US still has many thousands remaining from the Cold War. At the very least it would suggest that rockets are being sold to Australia and other customers at grossly inflated prices – which might explain why some countries are ditching HIMARS in favour of systems from Israel and South Korea...
But the record fines thing is probably rather misleading. Prior to privatistion I suspect that fines were derisory or non existent - and probably stayed that way for quite a while after privatisation as well. The record fines I think reflects more on the change in attitude and enforcement related to water quality rather than changes in the water quality itself.
Britains rivers and beaches were notoriously filthy and polluted prior to privatisation and even with the slipping in standars more recently are still a million times better than they were.
Again, they are not better because of privatisation, they are better because we have enforced much higher standards.
Most legal experts do not expect Mr. Trump to prevail on his broadest arguments. But when and how he loses may turn out to be as important as whether he loses.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/25/us/politics/trump-supreme-court-immunity-case.html
https://www.ofwat.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/WCPR_2021-22.pdf
https://www.ofwat.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Water-Company-Performance-Report-2022-23.pdf
Slipped a bit recently it seems.
You can judge someone by how they treat those beneath them.
@Savanta_UK
🚨NEW London Mayoral Voting Intention for
@MileEndInst
📈13pt Sadiq Khan lead
🌹Lab 46
🌳Con 33
🔶LD 9
🌍Green 7
➡️Reform 2
⬜️Other 2
Lab -5
Con +6
LD -1
Green -1
Ref 0
Other 0
on their last poll in March
Parker (Lab) 43% (+1)
Street (Con) 37% (+9)
Virk (Lib Dem) 8% (+1)
Harper-Nunes (Green) 5% (-2)
Williams (Reform) 4% (-9)
Other 3% (+1)
Changes +/- 10-14 April
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/west-midlands-…
It does appear along with the Savanta London that proximity to vote is causing tightening. Will this transfer to a GE? Westminster intention in these shows 3.5% swing in London and 'only' 10% in the West Mids 28 seats covered. Interesting movements, 10% UNS would make for a fairly small majority. Maybe a frisson of panic at Lab HQ? Interest in outcome piqued again
If this was noomy Britain, I’d be expecting a serious outbreak of Noom in about 20 seconds. As this is France, who knows
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brocéliande
🌹Lab 52
🌳Con 27
🔶LD 10
🌍Green 4
➡️Reform 6
⬜️Other 1
So, looks like Susan Hall gets the Reform UK Westminster vote share, while Zoe Garbett does better than the Greens' Westminster vote share, knocking down Khan's share.
In the medium term, it may be worth it *if* Russia grabs a large part of Ukraine that can be exploited in the future. But that's doubtful IMV, particularly if international sanctions remain. And that's key: keeping the sanctions regime in place. Putin, his minions and the appeasers will be calling for them to be lifted ASAP.
Policing, crime and personal safety
47%
The provision of affordable homes
41%
The provision of health services in the capital
34%
The levels of taxation in the capital
24%
The affordability of public transport
21%
The provision of good quality homes
19%
The quality of the environment
18%
The quality of schools and other educational institutions
15%
Waste collection and ability to keep the streets clean
13%
The availability of public transport
11%
https://x.com/holyroodmandy/status/1783453827733070170
Anwar is a noisy self publicist but I don’t think anyone would call him dim.
China and Russia are the new axis of evil.
https://x.com/holyroodmandy/status/1783454912304623857
And yes there is an element of subjectivity
But I’m also right! Etc etc etc
Actually no, I assume the PB Tories aghast at Labour doing it to the Tories are in wholesome support of Labour doing it to the SNP?
@ksnmiyagi
In the words of Rt Hon Lord Justice Fraser in the High Court in 2019, Angela Van Den Bogerd "did not give me frank evidence, and sought to obfuscate matters and mislead me". It's clear from today's #PostOfficeInquiry hearing that this particular leopard can't change her spots!"
https://twitter.com/ksnmiyagi/status/1783456520153301317
Fining yourself doesn't really work.
Not my fault you need to write in primary colours for your audience and associated fee.
You're overusing it as much as people overuse 'woke'.
Can the Greens justify keeping the cheques rolling by not voting for it? Its a tough one but my guess is that they will find a way. Abstention would probably do it.
Caveat: may be available to French citizens only?
Or the castle and Nappy's canoe.
https://www.brest-metropole-tourisme.fr/en/explorer-brest-metropole/nos-incontournables/le-musee-national-de-la-marine/
The things that require industrial depth to produce.
A sinner repenting. I don't know if you've seen this. There will be more.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/04/24/gillian-keegan-will-stop-saying-trans-women-are-women/
You’re not a paid noticer, it sharpens the senses