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Not another December election? – politicalbetting.com

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  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,087

    Ritual circumcision?
    Ritual animal slaughter?
    Sunil please don't call all those Gazans "animals". It is very disrespectful.
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    edited April 2024
    As for the idea that "Iran = Hamas" or "Hamas is a proxy of Iran", it's so fucking ignorant. Not only do they not even have the same set of religious beliefs, but Iran has done very little to support Palestine since October. They let ~35000 Palestinians be slaughtered before they struck Israel directly, and even then they only struck Israel in response to an Israeli attack on themselves. (They didn't do much to oppose the ethnic cleansing of Armenians either, which was carried out by Israel-armed Azerbaijan.) Although, to be fair to Iran, it's not quite on the same level as Egypt, Jordan, UAE, Qatar, Saudi, or Quisling-face Abbas.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    TOPPING said:

    I think this is probably right.
    Times of Israel is reporting that Jordan was heavily involved in shooting down the Iranian drones which is also very interesting. I didn't really expect them to passively let their airspace be violated but it's certainly a show of support.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,271
    There's a Qatar Airways cargo flight from Basel diverting to Beirut

    https://www.flightradar24.com/QTR43C/34c2827d
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,087
    nico679 said:

    I know exactly what those regimes stand for . Criticizing Israel for attacking the consulate I think is totally justified . Do you think the west was happy with that action . It was likely to lead to an escalation . So ask yourself why they chose to attack that consulate at that time . Really I don’t understand why the glaringly obvious is being ignored .
    Yes I don't disagree. It was a bit of a fuck you act. And I say this with caution but we are talking about Iran here which has never shied away from using all means at their disposal to attack its foes including on foreign soil.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 22,579
    edited April 2024
    nico679 said:

    I know exactly what those regimes stand for . Criticizing Israel for attacking the consulate I think is totally justified . Do you think the west was happy with that action . It was likely to lead to an escalation . So ask yourself why they chose to attack that consulate at that time . Really I don’t understand why the glaringly obvious is being ignored .
    Because the strike by Israel was legitimate.

    Why do you ignore that?
  • TOPPING said:

    Yes I don't disagree. It was a bit of a fuck you act. And I say this with caution but we are talking about Iran here which has never shied away from using all means at their disposal to attack its foes including on foreign soil.
    Agree with this.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,271
    TOPPING said:

    Sunil please don't call all those Gazans "animals". It is very disrespectful.
    I thought ritual circumcision and ritual animal slaughter is quite common is Israel.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,087
    TimS said:

    Nobody’s defending Iran. Nobody’s picking that side.

    EDIT: well maybe apart from @Donkeys who seems to be going full on Corbyn on this topic.

    Netanyahu is of a type: he’s in the same bracket as Modi, Erdogan, Bolsonaro, Trump. Modi in particular. Don’t let him lead the West into situations they shouldn’t be in, just because they suit him.
    Plenty of people are saying how ghastly it is that Israel hit Iran's embassy and it really wasn't fair.

    As for Netanyahu I have no idea how he compares to those other leaders. But he is in charge of a war cabinet and I'm not sure the others are.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,087

    I thought ritual circumcision and ritual animal slaughter is quite common is Israel.
    Not very respectful to all those dead Gazans Sunil please desist.
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    edited April 2024
    TOPPING said:

    Yes I don't disagree. It was a bit of a fuck you act. And I say this with caution but we are talking about Iran here which has never shied away from using all means at their disposal to attack its foes including on foreign soil.
    Israel has carried out assassinations and kidnappings around the world. In Belgium, Britain, you name it.
    It has also been waging undeclared war against Iran on Iranian soil for many years.
    Perhaps you think they are kind shy nice boys for allowing Iran to have any embassies anywhere, or for allowing friends of Palestine to talk to each other on the phone in Germany even if the German police do Israel's bidding by breaking up their meetings. And some Palestinian women have even successfully given birth in refugee camps in Gaza.

    Dunno who blacked out Tel Aviv today. Someone did. Who do you reckon?

    PS And as for this shit about Israel wanting to protect all the Jews, Israel has no right to speak for all Jews. Many Jews do not support the existence of Israel.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,087
    Donkeys said:

    Israel has carried out assassinations and kidnappings around the world. In Belgium, Britain, you name it.
    It has also been waging undeclared war against Iran on Iranian soil for many years.
    Perhaps you think they are kind soft nice boys for allowing Iran to have any embassies anywhere, or for allowing friends of Palestine to talk to each other on the phone in Germany even if the German police do Israel's bidding by break up their meetings.

    Dunno who blacked out Tel Aviv today. Someone did. Who do you reckon?
    Those poor Iranians I do feel for them. Is there a group we can join.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    edited April 2024
    TOPPING said:

    Plenty of people are saying how ghastly it is that Israel hit Iran's embassy and it really wasn't fair.

    As for Netanyahu I have no idea how he compares to those other leaders. But he is in charge of a war cabinet and I'm not sure the others are.
    I don't really care about deceased IGRC generals, but the principal of diplomatic inviolability does matter. Breaking it, particularly by blowing embassies up to kill a senior military official, is a precedent that's likely to come back to haunt us in the future. What moral recourse does a Western nation have to an attack in its diplomatic facilities if a nominally Western nation that claims to uphold international law has set a precedent that it's okay to attack such places if a nasty person we don't like is there? Embassies and diplomatic staff have to be protected, even if it leads to people we don't like conducting business there. Otherwise the channels between countries break down.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,271
    TOPPING said:

    Not very respectful to all those dead Gazans Sunil please desist.
    Ritual circumcision is practised by both Jews and Muslims.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,705
    Donkeys said:

    Israel has carried out assassinations and kidnappings around the world. In Belgium, Britain, you name it.
    It has also been waging undeclared war against Iran on Iranian soil for many years.
    Perhaps you think they are kind shy nice boys for allowing Iran to have any embassies anywhere, or for allowing friends of Palestine to talk to each other on the phone in Germany even if the German police do Israel's bidding by breaking up their meetings. And some Palestinian women have even successfully given birth in refugee camps in Gaza.

    Dunno who blacked out Tel Aviv today. Someone did. Who do you reckon?

    PS And as for this shit about Israel wanting to protect all the Jews, Israel has no right to speak for all Jews. Many Jews do not support the existence of Israel.
    Blackout has not been confirmed, IIRC.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277

    Because the strike by Israel was legitimate.

    Why do you ignore that?
    Bombing a consulate is bombing the actual country itself . It was done to escalate and hope Iran would retaliate which they have done . Netenyahu realized support for his Gaza war was cratering so decided to force the west to have to come back on side. I find it astonishing that this aspect seems to be missed by some in here .
  • pingping Posts: 3,805

    Because the strike by Israel was legitimate.

    Why do you ignore that?
    Genuine question,

    In your view, was the king David hotel bombing legitimate?

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,420
    Anyway, who cares that we may be seeing the middle east going up in flames and might even be at the start of WW3

    The REALLY big debate is surely whether you're Team Sharon or Team Amanda? :D

    https://twitter.com/MrsSOsbourne/status/1779026707514855877/photo/2
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,087
    ping said:

    Genuine question,

    In your view, was the king David hotel bombing legitimate?

    Good question. Was the Enniskillen bombing legitimate.
  • ping said:

    Genuine question,

    In your view, was the king David hotel bombing legitimate?

    No, it was terrorism.
    nico679 said:

    Bombing a consulate is bombing the actual country itself . It was done to escalate and hope Iran would retaliate which they have done . Netenyahu realized support for his Gaza war was cratering so decided to force the west to have to come back on side. I find it astonishing that this aspect seems to be missed by some in here .
    During war, bombing the country itself is entirely legitimate though.

    You're acting like this happened in a vacuum. There was a military target there that was sought to be killed, and Iran was a party to the conflict that had attacked Israel supporting the target who was killed.

    Well done for Israel for killing the high ranking military target, without killing a single innocent Palestinian. You should be applauding that, yet still Israel are in the wrong, even when not one innocent Palestinian died.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,087
    GIN1138 said:

    Anyway, who cares that we may be seeing the middle east going up in flames and might even be at the start of WW3

    The REALLY big debate is surely whether you're Team Sharon or Team Amanda? :D

    https://twitter.com/MrsSOsbourne/status/1779026707514855877/photo/2

    After his appearance on Extras Les Dennis can do no wrong. If that helps.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277

    No, it was terrorism. During war, bombing the country itself is entirely legitimate though.

    You're acting like this happened in a vacuum. There was a military target there that was sought to be killed, and Iran was a party to the conflict that had attacked Israel supporting the target who was killed.

    Well done for Israel for killing the high ranking military target, without killing a single innocent Palestinian. You should be applauding that, yet still Israel are in the wrong, even when not one innocent Palestinian died.
    Consulates are off limits . Can you name another country which has done this ?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,087
    edited April 2024
    nico679 said:

    Consulates are off limits . Can you name another country which has done this ?
    Were any consulates affected by the Nagasaki bombing or is this a red line you are willing to die in a ditch for.

    I get the desire to uphold international norms and the discombobulation when countries don't conform to them but you must understand that those norms are fluid to say the least.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,271
    TOPPING said:

    Many on PB: Israel is acting disproportionately in bombing Gaza it should conduct surgical strikes on those responsible.
    Also many on PB: how dare Israel conduct surgical strikes on those responsible.

    OK, I'll bite! Surgical strikes are OK!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,087
    Much as it pains me I must to bed.

    (Because tomorrow we rise at dawn...)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,271
    TOPPING said:

    Good question. Was the Enniskillen bombing legitimate.
    No.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited April 2024
    Great summary from Lyse Doucet;

    This is uncharted territory fraught with risk and unpredictability.

    Iran and Israel have fought shadow wars for decades, but for the first time Iran is now targeting Israel directly from Iranian soil.

    This is no longer a confrontation led by Iran’s array of powerful proxies across the region against an enemy which has long kept silent about its own attacks on Iranian assets and targeted assassinations.

    Israel describes Iran as the world’s greatest sponsor of terrorism; for Iran, hostility towards Israel, what it calls the “Zionist regime” is a core tenet of its 1979 revolutionary doctrine.

    The risk of confrontation had risen with every month the Gaza war has ground on.

    Iran has long prided itself on playing a long game, on exercising “strategic patience".

    Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has avoided all-out war ever since he came to power in 1989 in the shadow of the destructive Iran-Iraq war.

    Now the world waits to see the impact of this unprecedented strike.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-middle-east-68737710
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    TOPPING said:

    Were any consulates affected by the Nagasaki bombing or is this a red line you are willing to die in a ditch for.

    I get the desire to uphold international norms and the discombobulation when countries don't conform to them but you must understand that those norms are fluid to say the least.
    It sets a very bad precedent and was designed to escalate the situation. It was a reckless move and designed purely to force the west to come back on side .
  • nico679 said:

    It sets a very bad precedent and was designed to escalate the situation. It was a reckless move and designed purely to force the west to come back on side .
    It was designed to kill a target and it was not without precedence. Already this year alone Ecuador violated Mexico's consulate, these things have always been "guidelines more than actual rules" too.

    You object when Israel kills its targets without innocent Palestinian deaths.
    You object when Israel kills its targets with Palestinian deaths.
    Just what will be good enough for you!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,705

    OK, I'll bite! Surgical strikes are OK!
    Somewhat hard to do surgery with jagged fragments of metal travelling at the speed of sound.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 22,579
    edited April 2024
    Incidentally @nico679 has got international law wrong. International law prohibits the host country from violating the embassy, as Ecuador did against Mexico earlier this year. Nothing in international law prohibits third parties from engaging in acts of self-defence to kill legitimate military targets who happen to be in embassies.

    If the attack had happened in Jerusalem or Tel Aviv, it might have violated international law, but it didn't. It happened in Damascus. The Vienna Convention didn't apply to Israel. The attack happening in an embassy in Damascus is no different for Israel than if they'd bombed a Starbucks in Damascus that had a legitimate military target in it.

    Actually the Starbucks would have had more innocents.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,201
    TOPPING said:

    Which would have seen you check out of defending the UK after Dresden, presumably.
    Of course not. That is wholly different. What about Coventry?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,201
    TOPPING said:

    Ethnic supremacist fascist regime.

    Very funny.

    They seem to be giving your guys an almighty kicking, that said.
    Are you trying to out-idiot Bart tonight?
  • Are you trying to out-idiot Bart tonight?
    I think the idiots are those who said it was WW3 tonight, don't you?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,787
    Whether legal or not, Israel's attack on the consulate was stupid and short-sighted for at least one reason: it allows Iran, or its proxies, to attack Israeli consulates around the world and say: "It's okay now, isn't it?"

    And knowing Iran, attacking those of other countries as well.

    I can't believe that there wasn't another time or place that Israel could have attacked those people. It also shows what I said ages ago, about a targeted assassination campaign have significant downsides internationally.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,705

    I think the idiots are those who said it was WW3 tonight, don't you?
    Herman Kahn identified potential World Wars up to VIII, IIRC
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,420
    edited April 2024

    Of course not. That is wholly different. What about Coventry?
    @TOPPING raises an interesting question though.

    If Sir Winston sanctioned Dresden now, in 2024, chances are he'd spend his final 20 years being persecuted, prosecuted and maybe even being imprisoned by human rights activists, lawyers and his political opponents. Even though he was the PM that defended Britain from Nazi oppression and won The War.

    Infact, if WWII happened now, Dresden wouldn't happen in the first place?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,787
    So the Bondi killer was a 40-yeaar old Queenslander with significant mental health issues. Apparently not an immigrant, and a guy whose only religion appeared to be surfing.

    I'm not really sure how you can prevent this sort of attack.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,705
    GIN1138 said:

    @TOPPING raises an interesting question though.

    If Sir Winston sanctioned Dresden now, in 2024, chances are he'd spend his final 20 years being prosecuted, persecuted and maybe even imprisoned by human rights activists, lawyers and his political opponents, even though he was the PM that defended Britain from Nazi oppression and won the war.

    Infact, if WWII happened now, Dresden would never have happened in the first place?
    Dresden was the end result of mid WWII technology - a bombing raid was a shotgun blast a mile or more across. So if you aimed it to destroy everything (by fire) in a target a few miles across....

    By the end of the war, technology had marched on. Oboe equipped Mosquitos were hitting targets a few yards across. The raids were so accurate that they had to recalibrate the junctions between maps - Germany was hundreds of yards away from where we thought it was.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,705

    So the Bondi killer was a 40-yeaar old Queenslander with significant mental health issues. Apparently not an immigrant, and a guy whose only religion appeared to be surfing.

    I'm not really sure how you can prevent this sort of attack.

    Narwal tusks. Obviously.
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    edited April 2024
    TOPPING said:

    Ethnic supremacist fascist regime.

    Very funny.

    They seem to be giving your guys an almighty kicking, that said.
    For all their nukes their undisciplined rabble of an army (as Robert Fisk called it) - see some of the photos and video clips they've been posting - hasn't even taken all of Gaza yet and the ICJ ruled against them. What's their plan for when outside support dries up? Will they smash Gaza, Iran, Yemen, Hezbollah, the West Bank, Jerusalem, the Arab population of the 1948 OTs, and Syria all in a single clinically efficient night of attack, polishing their balls of steel when they've finished?

    The regime is proudly ethnic-supremacist. There is no point in proving the obvious. It calls itself the Jewish state. But it's not only Jews who live in the territory it claims or occupies, or who did live there before they were terrorised into fleeing, any more than it was only French people who lived in Algeria.

    As for fascist, what would you call the pogroms against Arab villages on the West Bank carried out by soldiers in cooperation with the mobhanded civilian thugs who sally out from their strictly Arabfrei towns, geed up by Rabbi Ginsburgh, to vandalise Arab people's means of livelihood and torch and smash up their homes?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,603
    Good morning @RCS1000 and @TheScreamingEagles.

    Please find attached in the toilets the promised article on how the history of betting illuminates how the UK resolves social issues, with passing reference to the trans issue. If you do want to publish it please let me know. @isam, can you have please have a quick look to see if I've got the history right? @Selebian, you said you wanted a preview, so there it is. I've copied it into a message to which you are all invited
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,603
    GIN1138 said:

    @TOPPING raises an interesting question though.

    If Sir Winston sanctioned Dresden now, in 2024, chances are he'd spend his final 20 years being persecuted, prosecuted and maybe even being imprisoned by human rights activists, lawyers and his political opponents. Even though he was the PM that defended Britain from Nazi oppression and won The War.

    Infact, if WWII happened now, Dresden wouldn't happen in the first place?
    Um, if WWII happened now we'd nuke Berlin.
  • nico679 said:

    Consulates are off limits . Can you name another country which has done this ?
    Literally Iran? https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/12/world/middleeast/argentina-iran-1992-1994-attack.html
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,323
    *Wakes up, in a large city in the Middle East*

    Morning all, how’s things?

    Oh. S***!!!

    *goes back to sleep*.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,596
    nico679 said:

    Consulates are off limits . Can you name another country which has done this ?
    Ecuador
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,471
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,691
    New thread.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,661
    GIN1138 said:

    @TOPPING raises an interesting question though.

    If Sir Winston sanctioned Dresden now, in 2024, chances are he'd spend his final 20 years being persecuted, prosecuted and maybe even being imprisoned by human rights activists, lawyers and his political opponents. Even though he was the PM that defended Britain from Nazi oppression and won The War.

    Infact, if WWII happened now, Dresden wouldn't happen in the first place?
    We'd find our standards slip a bit if we had a war like to contend with. Everyone does. It's just a question if they give up any attempt to avoid indiscriminate strikes etc or retain.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,112
    GIN1138 said:

    @TOPPING raises an interesting question though.

    If Sir Winston sanctioned Dresden now, in 2024, chances are he'd spend his final 20 years being persecuted, prosecuted and maybe even being imprisoned by human rights activists, lawyers and his political opponents. Even though he was the PM that defended Britain from Nazi oppression and won The War.

    Infact, if WWII happened now, Dresden wouldn't happen in the first place?
    I would hope most would agree that Dresden not happening (and Coventry not happening) would be an extremely good thing.
This discussion has been closed.