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Holidays can be cancelled of course – politicalbetting.com

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  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,075
    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @KevinASchofield

    Amazing quote from a senior Tory source in ace @MrHarryCole story.

    “7 months is a long time in politics. Just imagine what would happen if England won the Euros, Team GB had a hat full of gold at the Olympics — the landscape could be very different.”

    They now want other people to do even their Hail Mary passes?

    Bloody-hell ...
    England winning the Euros is no longer a guaranteed feel-good, even in England, since football now always comes with an unhealthy dollop of culture war feel-bad.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    Did anyone care what Hester thought about anything in 2019? Would anyone care now if it wasn't for the £10m he gave to the Tories last year? It is possible that some people knew of the allegation years ago but it simply wasn't a story, not even for the Guardian, until he bought himself a place on the public stage.

    The whole story may have a materially chilling effect on future donations. If I was the Tory Treasurer that is what would worry me most. Will every potential donor be concerned that they could be "Hestered" ?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,153

    I assume there is nothing stopping Rishi personally giving £10m or more to replace the donation? His wifes monthly net worth volatilty would be more than that so it is unlikely to be particularly noticed or difficult for them.

    If I were a PM with a net worth of $1bn or so and facing the biggest defeat for my party in a century it would seem a no brainer. I wonder if it has even been discussed?

    What always surprises me is how cheap UK politics is compared to the USA.

    Someone willing to spend a few million can really have a significant influence whereas tens of millions can be spent every two years in a single US House district:

    https://www.opensecrets.org/elections-overview/most-expensive-races
    In Wisconsin they spent $37m on a campaign over who should be the next judge!
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,153
    On the likes, not being able to see your own likes has a weird side effect for the absent minded such as myself. If I've forgotten I have already liked a post, I will like it again, which results in my original like being removed and the count going down......
  • New Savanta poll this morning has the Tories at 25 points — their lowest score with the pollster since Liz Truss’s final week

    🌹 LAB 43% (-1)
    🔵 CON 25% (-2)
    🔶LIB 11% (+1)
    🔷 REF 9% (+1)
    🟢 GRN 4% (=)


    https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1767821280688927010

    Do we know the sample period - post Anderson defection? (Yes, I know Savanta doesn't prompt for Reform)
    8-10 March so pre defection.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,899
    edited March 13
    Interesting that all Notts seats except Newark seem to have Labour candidates in place.


    PS: Does anyone know anything about the Ashfield Candidate Rhea Keehn (by PM if you prefer).

    She seems to be quite sane from my initial checks, which is part way to a chance of getting my vote.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,923
    I know that government media management has been sinking more and more to The Thick Of It parody levels, but this government really has turned the dial up several more notches.

    I mean who is actually feeding the poor chumps who have to go on the airwaves the party line? Surely they must know from experience it won’t hold and will make them look ridiculous.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,153
    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Did anyone care what Hester thought about anything in 2019? Would anyone care now if it wasn't for the £10m he gave to the Tories last year? It is possible that some people knew of the allegation years ago but it simply wasn't a story, not even for the Guardian, until he bought himself a place on the public stage.

    The whole story may have a materially chilling effect on future donations. If I was the Tory Treasurer that is what would worry me most. Will every potential donor be concerned that they could be "Hestered" ?

    Unless they've called for a well known politician to be shot, with references to the colour of their skin, they should be fine.

    I think people need to take a step back. Imagine if an anti-semite had given Labour £10 million under Corbyn.

    Consider the context of Sunak's speech in Downing Street, talking about tolerance and moderation.

    And this was 2019. It's not like the right-wing press held anything against Corbyn/Starmer/Abbott from a few decades back, is it?
    Its the £10m that is the problem. If it were 10,000 people giving £1k each there would inevitably be some of that 10,000 who made similar comments but it wouldn't be a serious issue.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    Whatever new definition of 'extremism' Michael Gove & co. come out with tomorrow, it will now, presumably, include the caveat that all bets are off if the alleged extremist apologises after being busted...

    https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1767847851357294726
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,341
    edited March 13

    nico679 said:

    So the government line is no matter how many racist comments you make you can just apologize and that’s the end of it .

    Hester isn't a Conservative minister or MP. He's a donor. As long as he's not unduly influencing Conservative Party policy, what's the problem? Isn't it better than the £10 million is out of Hester's (a racist) hands and with a party (in their view!) committed to equality?

    They've also not said anything about "how many racist comments you make". You've made that bit up.
    TBF to Nico, the Tories said it was OK after one lot of comments were publicised. And now still OK after another lot. The obvious extrapolation is precisely what Nico is suggesting.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,119
    MattW said:

    Interesting that all Notts seats except Newark seem to have Labour candidates in place.


    PS: Does anyone know anything about the Ashfield Candidate Rhea Keehn (by PM if you prefer).

    She seems to be quite sane from my initial checks, which is part way to a chance of getting my vote.

    What is your definition of sanity?

    image
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,341
    edited March 13
    DavidL said:

    Did anyone care what Hester thought about anything in 2019? Would anyone care now if it wasn't for the £10m he gave to the Tories last year? It is possible that some people knew of the allegation years ago but it simply wasn't a story, not even for the Guardian, until he bought himself a place on the public stage.

    The whole story may have a materially chilling effect on future donations. If I was the Tory Treasurer that is what would worry me most. Will every potential donor be concerned that they could be "Hestered" ?

    "Last year" was, calendrically, just two months and a bit ago, though. Edit: and we are still in the relevant financial year.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,899
    edited March 13
    Things to do now - have a good day everyone.

    This is slightly amusing.

    How bollards etc help parking.

    Parked right between the lines. Perfect!!
    https://twitter.com/WorldBollard/status/1767582097730912284
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,036
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @hzeffman

    NEW: Conservative mayor of the West Midlands Andy Street tells
    @BBCr4today if he'd received £10 million from Frank Hester he'd hand it back.

    "I would think about the company I kept and I would give that money back."

    No party would give back 10m without a fight. Morals and PR aside they just aren't so flush with cash they can reimburse that much without consequence.
    Even the sainted Lib Dems, the holiest of holies, did not hand back the millions they took from a convicted fraudster.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    MattW said:

    Interesting that all Notts seats except Newark seem to have Labour candidates in place.


    PS: Does anyone know anything about the Ashfield Candidate Rhea Keehn (by PM if you prefer).

    She seems to be quite sane from my initial checks, which is part way to a chance of getting my vote.

    Newark Labour have a decades old history of infighting and splits. Indeed both major parties have provided rubbish candidates since the 80s. Crooks and scumbags the lot of them.

    The last decent candidate/MP for the Tories was Richard Alexander and the last for Labour was Ted Bishop, both more than 4 decades ago.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,119
    A thought on some things we were discussing last night.

    The modern Western world emphasises, among other things, an end to the old culture of Deference To Our Betters. We live in a free wheeling democracy, after all.

    All good so far.

    The problem is that when our politicians just tell people how it's going to be, they are assuming deference that no longer exists. From people who've been told they are Sovereign. Every man and woman a King, as Huey Long said.

    "The word must is not to be used to princes." - Elizabeth I

    I think this is at the core of some major issues. Telling the voters that they have no option is... not an option any more. They have options. Bad ones, but they exist. See Brexit.

    If you want progressive, socially liberal policies, you are going to have to sell them in the market place of ideas.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,241

    Scott_xP said:

    @hzeffman

    NEW: Postal affairs minister Kevin Hollinrake tells @bbcbreakfast the Conservative Party would take another £10 million from Frank Hester.

    “On the basis that we don’t believe Mr Hester’s a racist, yes.”

    I actually find this unbelievable. Who could have guessed that my opinion of the Tory party wasn't low enough.
    Only thing he could say, though, without opening up the "shouldn't you return the other ten million, then?" question.

    And the Conservatives don't want to return that, because they like having the money.
    I don't think this is difficult. The Conservatives have no intention of returning the £10 million but realise the association with Hester is deeply damaging. So the line should be "As an inclusive party we reject racism of any kind. We have stopped contributions from Mr Hester while we investigate the remarks he is alleged to have made. We have nothing more to say until we complete those investigations."

    It does take someone to make a decision on what line to take.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,341
    edited March 13
    FF43 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @hzeffman

    NEW: Postal affairs minister Kevin Hollinrake tells @bbcbreakfast the Conservative Party would take another £10 million from Frank Hester.

    “On the basis that we don’t believe Mr Hester’s a racist, yes.”

    I actually find this unbelievable. Who could have guessed that my opinion of the Tory party wasn't low enough.
    Only thing he could say, though, without opening up the "shouldn't you return the other ten million, then?" question.

    And the Conservatives don't want to return that, because they like having the money.
    I don't think this is difficult. The Conservatives have no intention of returning the £10 million but realise the association with Hester is deeply damaging. So the line should be "As an inclusive party we reject racism of any kind. We have stopped contributions from Mr Hester while we investigate the remarks he is alleged to have made. We have nothing more to say until we complete those investigations."

    It does take someone to make a decision on what line to take.
    The delay isn't helping in the current context, after Mr Sunak's keynote oration the other week.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/12/ministers-initial-refusal-to-say-frank-hesters-comments-were-racist-speaks-volumes

    'Sailesh Mehta, a barrister and founding member of the Bar Human Rights Committee, said Hester’s comments, if as reported, were “capable of fitting the ingredients of the criminal offence [of stirring up racial hatred] created by the Public Order Act”. He said it was rarely prosecuted, except in the most compelling cases, because of free speech considerations, but added: “Political leaders are increasingly using incendiary language, which appears to give licence to their followers to be ever more shrill in their rhetoric. It is only a matter of time before this worrying spiral triggers such violence or threat of violence that the police and Crime Prosecution Service will be forced to act.”

    Begum compared the government’s initial refusal to call Hester’s comments racist to its recent refusal to label Lee Anderson’s description of Sadiq Khan and London being controlled by Islamists as Islamophobic, despite suspending him from the party.

    She also contrasted its response with what she said was “the increasing criminalisation of black and brown people” [...]'
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,468
    DavidL said:

    British armed forces have gone full Games of Thrones:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vg2IuPKqvt4

    A useful weapons system, as long as the enemy doesn't attack in a rainstorm... ;)

    (Lasers and moisture don't get on well. In the case of microwave systems, you just end up with warm rain)
    So the BRITISH army have a weapon system that doesn't work in the rain? Jeez.
    It's hard for *any* directed energy beam weapon to work in bad or poor weather, for a variety of reasons that differ according to the system. Lasers can get diffracted by moisture such as rain or fog, and much of the energy of microwave systems get absorbed by the moisture. From memory, scintillation can also occur. This does not render them useless, but can reduce the effective range. Adaptive optics may help with lasers, but only to a certain extent.

    They could easily become very useful, particularly for far-off targets, but are far from being a comprehensive solution at the moment. But given the rise of drone warfare, the advantages of such systems may be rapidly outweighing the negatives.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    edited March 13
    Maybe Sunak will surprise at PMQs and say they’ll hand back the donation.

    And if he did how do we know it will actually happen and who actually checks that .
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,909
    edited March 13

    DavidL said:

    British armed forces have gone full Games of Thrones:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vg2IuPKqvt4

    A useful weapons system, as long as the enemy doesn't attack in a rainstorm... ;)

    (Lasers and moisture don't get on well. In the case of microwave systems, you just end up with warm rain)
    So the BRITISH army have a weapon system that doesn't work in the rain? Jeez.
    It's hard for *any* directed energy beam weapon to work in bad or poor weather, for a variety of reasons that differ according to the system. Lasers can get diffracted by moisture such as rain or fog, and much of the energy of microwave systems get absorbed by the moisture. From memory, scintillation can also occur. This does not render them useless, but can reduce the effective range. Adaptive optics may help with lasers, but only to a certain extent.

    They could easily become very useful, particularly for far-off targets, but are far from being a comprehensive solution at the moment. But given the rise of drone warfare, the advantages of such systems may be rapidly outweighing the negatives.
    At the moment cloudy weather is inhibiting drone operations too, presumably because you don't want to put expensive optics/radar onto what is purposefully a disposable platform. So not being able to operate in the rain mostly shouldn't be a problem - not so many drones then either.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682

    HYUFD said:

    I was accused of trolling when I made this point a few weeks ago.

    UK will need closer EU relations if Trump wins US presidency, senior Tories say

    The comments by Theresa May’s former de facto DPM comes as @ConsEurope launch a new report pushing for a softening of the Brexit deal


    https://twitter.com/singharj/status/1767814173730250797

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/02/14/has-trump-ensured-the-uk-rejoins-the-eu/

    Canada and Turkey and Norway and Iceland are also in NATO but not in the EU like we are
    Iceland and Norway are in the EEA. Turkey wanted to be in the EU. Canada is barred from EU membership on grounds of geography.
    So HYUFD is right. There is no requirement to be in the EU or even the EEA to be part of NATO.

    This is just more desperate arm waving by the Eurofanatics.
    Where did anyone say there was a requirement to be in the EU or even the EEA to be part of NATO?

    If Trump pulls out of or destabilises NATO, it stands to reason that we might look to alternative supranational structures for international collaboration.
    Nope. Just more wishful thinking by the pro-EU nutters. NATO would still exist whether the US was in it or not, and the other members would do nothing to inhibit a US return once the Golden Shower was out of power.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    MattW said:

    Interesting that all Notts seats except Newark seem to have Labour candidates in place.


    PS: Does anyone know anything about the Ashfield Candidate Rhea Keehn (by PM if you prefer).

    She seems to be quite sane from my initial checks, which is part way to a chance of getting my vote.

    This is her professional background, though including an amateur political interview that someone did with her: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rhea-keehn/recent-activity/comments/ . As you say, seems sane!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,149
    nico679 said:

    Maybe Sunak will surprise at PMQs and say they’ll hand back the donation.

    And if he did how do we know it will actually happen and who actually checks that .

    Poor show if the Tories can't rustle up some non racist money bags sympatico to Project Con to replace the £10m.
    Ok, the non racist bit might be tricky.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,391
    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Huge if true. May prevent the downfall of the West. Powerful.

    https://www.radiotimes.com/tv/sci-fi/doctor-who-steven-moffat-2024-christmas-newsupdate/

    Oh FFS.

    Moffat and Nicola Coughlan, what's to like !!!!

    Moffat's track record on Dr Who Xmas specials is utter cack.
    I find that if one watches them repeatedly, one eventually likes them. Eventually... :)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,468

    HYUFD said:

    I was accused of trolling when I made this point a few weeks ago.

    UK will need closer EU relations if Trump wins US presidency, senior Tories say

    The comments by Theresa May’s former de facto DPM comes as @ConsEurope launch a new report pushing for a softening of the Brexit deal


    https://twitter.com/singharj/status/1767814173730250797

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/02/14/has-trump-ensured-the-uk-rejoins-the-eu/

    Canada and Turkey and Norway and Iceland are also in NATO but not in the EU like we are
    Iceland and Norway are in the EEA. Turkey wanted to be in the EU. Canada is barred from EU membership on grounds of geography.
    So HYUFD is right. There is no requirement to be in the EU or even the EEA to be part of NATO.

    This is just more desperate arm waving by the Eurofanatics.
    Where did anyone say there was a requirement to be in the EU or even the EEA to be part of NATO?

    If Trump pulls out of or destabilises NATO, it stands to reason that we might look to alternative supranational structures for international collaboration.
    Nope. Just more wishful thinking by the pro-EU nutters. NATO would still exist whether the US was in it or not, and the other members would do nothing to inhibit a US return once the Golden Shower was out of power.
    I fear the idea of the US returning to NATO once Trump's out of power is vain, for two reasons. Firstly, the Republicans will make it increasingly hard for there to be anything other than a Republican presidency (and government...) in future. The Trumpists don't believe in a democracy that keeps them out of power. Secondly, they will try not just to leave NATO, but also to wreck it as a force.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046

    HYUFD said:

    I was accused of trolling when I made this point a few weeks ago.

    UK will need closer EU relations if Trump wins US presidency, senior Tories say

    The comments by Theresa May’s former de facto DPM comes as @ConsEurope launch a new report pushing for a softening of the Brexit deal


    https://twitter.com/singharj/status/1767814173730250797

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/02/14/has-trump-ensured-the-uk-rejoins-the-eu/

    Canada and Turkey and Norway and Iceland are also in NATO but not in the EU like we are
    Iceland and Norway are in the EEA. Turkey wanted to be in the EU. Canada is barred from EU membership on grounds of geography.
    So HYUFD is right. There is no requirement to be in the EU or even the EEA to be part of NATO.

    This is just more desperate arm waving by the Eurofanatics.
    Where did anyone say there was a requirement to be in the EU or even the EEA to be part of NATO?

    If Trump pulls out of or destabilises NATO, it stands to reason that we might look to alternative supranational structures for international collaboration.
    Nope. Just more wishful thinking by the pro-EU nutters. NATO would still exist whether the US was in it or not, and the other members would do nothing to inhibit a US return once the Golden Shower was out of power.
    Triggered much? Richard we have left. You can calm the farm.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,036
    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Did anyone care what Hester thought about anything in 2019? Would anyone care now if it wasn't for the £10m he gave to the Tories last year? It is possible that some people knew of the allegation years ago but it simply wasn't a story, not even for the Guardian, until he bought himself a place on the public stage.

    The whole story may have a materially chilling effect on future donations. If I was the Tory Treasurer that is what would worry me most. Will every potential donor be concerned that they could be "Hestered" ?

    Unless they've called for a well known politician to be shot, with references to the colour of their skin, they should be fine.

    I think people need to take a step back. Imagine if an anti-semite had given Labour £10 million under Corbyn.

    Consider the context of Sunak's speech in Downing Street, talking about tolerance and moderation.

    And this was 2019. It's not like the right-wing press held anything against Corbyn/Starmer/Abbott from a few decades back, is it?
    Or the Starmer Labour Party who suspended her unfairly and she still remains suspended.

    She has said, as a black woman she has no faith she will get any justice from Labour.

    Yet you happily dismissed this yesterday. Why, it would almost appear that your concern for Diane Abbott was more about getting in digs at your political opponents than any support for her as a victim of prejudice.

    Ed Balls had the decency to call Labour out for this yesterday. Diane is, as a politician, sinned against by many people. It also includes her own side.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,468
    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Huge if true. May prevent the downfall of the West. Powerful.

    https://www.radiotimes.com/tv/sci-fi/doctor-who-steven-moffat-2024-christmas-newsupdate/

    Oh FFS.

    Moffat and Nicola Coughlan, what's to like !!!!

    Moffat's track record on Dr Who Xmas specials is utter cack.
    I find that if one watches them repeatedly, one eventually likes them. Eventually... :)
    https://twitter.com/Lou_Roll/status/950146172450234369/photo/1
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,899
    edited March 13

    MattW said:

    Interesting that all Notts seats except Newark seem to have Labour candidates in place.


    PS: Does anyone know anything about the Ashfield Candidate Rhea Keehn (by PM if you prefer).

    She seems to be quite sane from my initial checks, which is part way to a chance of getting my vote.

    What is your definition of sanity?

    image
    I start with something like:

    political values?
    carpetbagger?
    are emphasised community links genuinely from before the candidature?
    do statements etc evidence thought outside current party political positions?
    is her position on Israel / Palestinians thought through, nuanced and balanced?

    No matter how much one disagrees with Lee Anderson's latterday pandering to extremists, his local links are real, and ~10 years working in CAB + ~10 years as a single dad are a genuine grounding.

    Compare with Tim Smith or Geoff Hoon.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,468
    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Did anyone care what Hester thought about anything in 2019? Would anyone care now if it wasn't for the £10m he gave to the Tories last year? It is possible that some people knew of the allegation years ago but it simply wasn't a story, not even for the Guardian, until he bought himself a place on the public stage.

    The whole story may have a materially chilling effect on future donations. If I was the Tory Treasurer that is what would worry me most. Will every potential donor be concerned that they could be "Hestered" ?

    Unless they've called for a well known politician to be shot, with references to the colour of their skin, they should be fine.

    I think people need to take a step back. Imagine if an anti-semite had given Labour £10 million under Corbyn.

    Consider the context of Sunak's speech in Downing Street, talking about tolerance and moderation.

    And this was 2019. It's not like the right-wing press held anything against Corbyn/Starmer/Abbott from a few decades back, is it?
    Or the Starmer Labour Party who suspended her unfairly and she still remains suspended.

    She has said, as a black woman she has no faith she will get any justice from Labour.

    Yet you happily dismissed this yesterday. Why, it would almost appear that your concern for Diane Abbott was more about getting in digs at your political opponents than any support for her as a victim of prejudice.

    Ed Balls had the decency to call Labour out for this yesterday. Diane is, as a politician, sinned against by many people. It also includes her own side.
    An issue is that she has also sinned against people, using racist language against non-blacks. e.g.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-16423278
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    edited March 13
    Talking of triggering, I hope @Cyclefree isn't racing today as Ladies' Day has been rebranded Style Wednesday at Cheltenham.

    It's enough to bring out the wokerati political correctness gone mad retired colonel in me.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,119

    DavidL said:

    British armed forces have gone full Games of Thrones:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vg2IuPKqvt4

    A useful weapons system, as long as the enemy doesn't attack in a rainstorm... ;)

    (Lasers and moisture don't get on well. In the case of microwave systems, you just end up with warm rain)
    So the BRITISH army have a weapon system that doesn't work in the rain? Jeez.
    It's hard for *any* directed energy beam weapon to work in bad or poor weather, for a variety of reasons that differ according to the system. Lasers can get diffracted by moisture such as rain or fog, and much of the energy of microwave systems get absorbed by the moisture. From memory, scintillation can also occur. This does not render them useless, but can reduce the effective range. Adaptive optics may help with lasers, but only to a certain extent.

    They could easily become very useful, particularly for far-off targets, but are far from being a comprehensive solution at the moment. But given the rise of drone warfare, the advantages of such systems may be rapidly outweighing the negatives.
    At the moment cloudy weather is inhibiting drone operations too, presumably because you don't want to put expensive optics/radar onto what is purposefully a disposable platform. So not being able to operate in the rain mostly shouldn't be a problem - not so many drones then either.
    As laser energies increase, there is an effect where the laser "burns" a hole for itself in clouds/smoke/rain.

    Hypersonic weapons will have problems with rain, as well. Took quite a lot of tests to design an ICBM warhead that could survive a rainstorm at Mach 20.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    I was accused of trolling when I made this point a few weeks ago.

    UK will need closer EU relations if Trump wins US presidency, senior Tories say

    The comments by Theresa May’s former de facto DPM comes as @ConsEurope launch a new report pushing for a softening of the Brexit deal


    https://twitter.com/singharj/status/1767814173730250797

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/02/14/has-trump-ensured-the-uk-rejoins-the-eu/

    Canada and Turkey and Norway and Iceland are also in NATO but not in the EU like we are
    Iceland and Norway are in the EEA. Turkey wanted to be in the EU. Canada is barred from EU membership on grounds of geography.
    So HYUFD is right. There is no requirement to be in the EU or even the EEA to be part of NATO.

    This is just more desperate arm waving by the Eurofanatics.
    Where did anyone say there was a requirement to be in the EU or even the EEA to be part of NATO?

    If Trump pulls out of or destabilises NATO, it stands to reason that we might look to alternative supranational structures for international collaboration.
    Nope. Just more wishful thinking by the pro-EU nutters. NATO would still exist whether the US was in it or not, and the other members would do nothing to inhibit a US return once the Golden Shower was out of power.
    Triggered much? Richard we have left. You can calm the farm.
    Not triggered at all. Just like to take the opportunity to take the piss out of the irreconcilables. They cling to any faint hope no.matter how obscure or illogical.

    Personally I would like to see much closer cooperation with the EU over many matters. My position on that hasn't changed since the referendum. But I am not naive enough to grab at any loony pro EU theory like some on here.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,391

    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    Now this is a proper conspiracy theory.

    Wow, wagering her whole “professional reputation” on this conspiracy? That’s quite a lot to risk.
    https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1767700819896304066

    I don't know Candace Owens, are we talking low or high stakes (say more than 50p) here?
    A right wing controversialist.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candace_Owens

    As the guy below says, it's a bit like Eric Trump staking his reputation as a Chess Grandmaster.
    Yet in 2015 said:

    "Yes, we can officially confirm that our beloved Republican Tea Party is being led by the Mad Hatter and us millennials have been thrust into their wonderland.

    The good news is, they will eventually die off (peacefully in their sleep, we hope), and then we can get right on with the OBVIOUS social change that needs to happen, IMMEDIATELY"

    One has to wonder how society is set up in a manner which leads people down a rabbit hole, even when they know in advance its a crazy bat shit rabbit hole.
    Prior to the internet we could believe that our co-nationalists held broadly the same opinions as us, even if they voted differently. But after the internet, especially Twitter, that belief is not possible: we live cheek-by-jowl with people who disagree with us on fundamental issues. We've tried to cope by restructuring society with online nations and families, like the Anglosphere and PB. Which is why we end up living in crazy bat shit rabbit holes: we know they are CBSRHs but it keeps us safe from the other CBSRHs.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,954
    edited March 13
    Vanilla etc
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,954
    A
    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Did anyone care what Hester thought about anything in 2019? Would anyone care now if it wasn't for the £10m he gave to the Tories last year? It is possible that some people knew of the allegation years ago but it simply wasn't a story, not even for the Guardian, until he bought himself a place on the public stage.

    The whole story may have a materially chilling effect on future donations. If I was the Tory Treasurer that is what would worry me most. Will every potential donor be concerned that they could be "Hestered" ?

    Unless they've called for a well known politician to be shot, with references to the colour of their skin, they should be fine.

    I think people need to take a step back. Imagine if an anti-semite had given Labour £10 million under Corbyn.

    Consider the context of Sunak's speech in Downing Street, talking about tolerance and moderation.

    And this was 2019. It's not like the right-wing press held anything against Corbyn/Starmer/Abbott from a few decades back, is it?
    Or the Starmer Labour Party who suspended her unfairly and she still remains suspended.

    She has said, as a black woman she has no faith she will get any justice from Labour.

    Yet you happily dismissed this yesterday. Why, it would almost appear that your concern for Diane Abbott was more about getting in digs at your political opponents than any support for her as a victim of prejudice.

    Ed Balls had the decency to call Labour out for this yesterday. Diane is, as a politician, sinned against by many people. It also includes her own side.
    An unfair suspension is rather different to a call for her to be shot.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,119
    TOPPING said:

    Talking of triggering, I hope @Cyclefree isn't racing today as Ladies' Day has been rebranded Style Wednesday at Cheltenham.

    It's enough to bring out the wokerati political correctness gone mad retired colonel in me.

    I used to work with a chap who'd served in the reserve bit of the Indian army.

    Told me that he was sad, in a way, to have given it up - at least before he made Lt-Col. But came here, working in IT etc.

    He liked the idea, when he retired to Tunbridge Wells, he could write to the papers with the classic signature.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,119

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Did anyone care what Hester thought about anything in 2019? Would anyone care now if it wasn't for the £10m he gave to the Tories last year? It is possible that some people knew of the allegation years ago but it simply wasn't a story, not even for the Guardian, until he bought himself a place on the public stage.

    The whole story may have a materially chilling effect on future donations. If I was the Tory Treasurer that is what would worry me most. Will every potential donor be concerned that they could be "Hestered" ?

    Unless they've called for a well known politician to be shot, with references to the colour of their skin, they should be fine.

    I think people need to take a step back. Imagine if an anti-semite had given Labour £10 million under Corbyn.

    Consider the context of Sunak's speech in Downing Street, talking about tolerance and moderation.

    And this was 2019. It's not like the right-wing press held anything against Corbyn/Starmer/Abbott from a few decades back, is it?
    Or the Starmer Labour Party who suspended her unfairly and she still remains suspended.

    She has said, as a black woman she has no faith she will get any justice from Labour.

    Yet you happily dismissed this yesterday. Why, it would almost appear that your concern for Diane Abbott was more about getting in digs at your political opponents than any support for her as a victim of prejudice.

    Ed Balls had the decency to call Labour out for this yesterday. Diane is, as a politician, sinned against by many people. It also includes her own side.
    Diane Abbott has received appalling abuse. She has also a history of saying and apparently believing some unpleasant stuff which isn't compatible with being in a Social Democratic party.

    1) The latter doesn't mean that the the former is excusable
    2) The abuse she has received does not cancel or obviate her behaviour.

    It is possible to be both sinned against and a sinner.
    Indeed. It is also notable that so much of the abuse directed at her relates less to what she says and does and far more to what she is in terms of race. That is a line that is crossed far too often.
    Quite.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,127

    Whatever new definition of 'extremism' Michael Gove & co. come out with tomorrow, it will now, presumably, include the caveat that all bets are off if the alleged extremist apologises after being busted...

    https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1767847851357294726

    I am sure that is why the story emerged this week. The campaign on extremism and threats to MPs looks even more ludicrous now. I doubt if Gove can keep a straight face when arguing it.
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279

    A thought on some things we were discussing last night.

    The modern Western world emphasises, among other things, an end to the old culture of Deference To Our Betters. We live in a free wheeling democracy, after all.

    All good so far.

    The problem is that when our politicians just tell people how it's going to be, they are assuming deference that no longer exists. From people who've been told they are Sovereign. Every man and woman a King, as Huey Long said.

    "The word must is not to be used to princes." - Elizabeth I

    I think this is at the core of some major issues. Telling the voters that they have no option is... not an option any more. They have options. Bad ones, but they exist. See Brexit.

    If you want progressive, socially liberal policies, you are going to have to sell them in the market place of ideas.

    The problem is now we have free speech on the likes of twitter these policies are increasingly unsellable. This only worked when the media was controlled and a quick call to an editor could kill a story.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Did anyone care what Hester thought about anything in 2019? Would anyone care now if it wasn't for the £10m he gave to the Tories last year? It is possible that some people knew of the allegation years ago but it simply wasn't a story, not even for the Guardian, until he bought himself a place on the public stage.

    The whole story may have a materially chilling effect on future donations. If I was the Tory Treasurer that is what would worry me most. Will every potential donor be concerned that they could be "Hestered" ?

    Unless they've called for a well known politician to be shot, with references to the colour of their skin, they should be fine.

    I think people need to take a step back. Imagine if an anti-semite had given Labour £10 million under Corbyn.

    Consider the context of Sunak's speech in Downing Street, talking about tolerance and moderation.

    And this was 2019. It's not like the right-wing press held anything against Corbyn/Starmer/Abbott from a few decades back, is it?
    Or the Starmer Labour Party who suspended her unfairly and she still remains suspended.

    She has said, as a black woman she has no faith she will get any justice from Labour.

    Yet you happily dismissed this yesterday. Why, it would almost appear that your concern for Diane Abbott was more about getting in digs at your political opponents than any support for her as a victim of prejudice.

    Ed Balls had the decency to call Labour out for this yesterday. Diane is, as a politician, sinned against by many people. It also includes her own side.
    Spot on the report into racism in Labour that SKS commissioned concluded Labour under Starmer has a hierarchy of racism, where other forms of racism are not treated as seriously as Antisemitism

    SKS has refused to engage with the author.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,149
    Foxy said:

    Whatever new definition of 'extremism' Michael Gove & co. come out with tomorrow, it will now, presumably, include the caveat that all bets are off if the alleged extremist apologises after being busted...

    https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1767847851357294726

    I am sure that is why the story emerged this week. The campaign on extremism and threats to MPs looks even more ludicrous now. I doubt if Gove can keep a straight face when arguing it.
    I'm sure he can manage it with at least one his faces.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,127
    TOPPING said:

    Talking of triggering, I hope @Cyclefree isn't racing today as Ladies' Day has been rebranded Style Wednesday at Cheltenham.

    It's enough to bring out the wokerati political correctness gone mad retired colonel in me.

    Presumably peacock males like @TSE and myself are now in with a chance to show off our fancy dandy outfits.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,119
    Truman said:

    A thought on some things we were discussing last night.

    The modern Western world emphasises, among other things, an end to the old culture of Deference To Our Betters. We live in a free wheeling democracy, after all.

    All good so far.

    The problem is that when our politicians just tell people how it's going to be, they are assuming deference that no longer exists. From people who've been told they are Sovereign. Every man and woman a King, as Huey Long said.

    "The word must is not to be used to princes." - Elizabeth I

    I think this is at the core of some major issues. Telling the voters that they have no option is... not an option any more. They have options. Bad ones, but they exist. See Brexit.

    If you want progressive, socially liberal policies, you are going to have to sell them in the market place of ideas.

    The problem is now we have free speech on the likes of twitter these policies are increasingly unsellable. This only worked when the media was controlled and a quick call to an editor could kill a story.
    You mean throw the story out of the window?
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    For example the people who benefit most from progressive socially liberal policies tend to be our publich school educated elites. They can buy their way out of bad areas with the wrong sort of people and their daughters benefit at the expense of the white working class from the workplace bring opened to women.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,127
    Eabhal said:

    A

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Did anyone care what Hester thought about anything in 2019? Would anyone care now if it wasn't for the £10m he gave to the Tories last year? It is possible that some people knew of the allegation years ago but it simply wasn't a story, not even for the Guardian, until he bought himself a place on the public stage.

    The whole story may have a materially chilling effect on future donations. If I was the Tory Treasurer that is what would worry me most. Will every potential donor be concerned that they could be "Hestered" ?

    Unless they've called for a well known politician to be shot, with references to the colour of their skin, they should be fine.

    I think people need to take a step back. Imagine if an anti-semite had given Labour £10 million under Corbyn.

    Consider the context of Sunak's speech in Downing Street, talking about tolerance and moderation.

    And this was 2019. It's not like the right-wing press held anything against Corbyn/Starmer/Abbott from a few decades back, is it?
    Or the Starmer Labour Party who suspended her unfairly and she still remains suspended.

    She has said, as a black woman she has no faith she will get any justice from Labour.

    Yet you happily dismissed this yesterday. Why, it would almost appear that your concern for Diane Abbott was more about getting in digs at your political opponents than any support for her as a victim of prejudice.

    Ed Balls had the decency to call Labour out for this yesterday. Diane is, as a politician, sinned against by many people. It also includes her own side.
    An unfair suspension is rather different to a call for her to be shot.
    I suspect that in this instance "being shot" or "up against the wall" is an unfortunate political metaphor like "stabbed in the back" or "decapitation" rather than serious murderous intent.

    Perhaps all these need to be retired from discourse in the modern era.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,468
    If I buy a lot of food, Morrisons regularly give me a money-off petrol voucher that, even with the deduction, is still well above the price I can get locally. Or at other supermarkets *without* any deductions.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,472

    Foxy said:

    nico679 said:

    So the government line is no matter how many racist comments you make you can just apologize and that’s the end of it .

    Actually I am OK with that, provided the apology is sincere, and there is visible making of amends.

    Apologising and repenting is something to be encouraged and supported. Far better than a Social Media lynchmob.
    I concur, a sincere apology should be treated with compassion. However, the money is problematic, given its a third of their annual income.
    It's a bad thing that the party's income is so dependent on one person, whoever he is.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    If I buy a lot of food, Morrisons regularly give me a money-off petrol voucher that, even with the deduction, is still well above the price I can get locally. Or at other supermarkets *without* any deductions.
    Theyre just massively over geared

    Ive noticed the squeeze at my local store. Few staff, no heating, stock outs.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,187

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @hzeffman

    NEW: Conservative mayor of the West Midlands Andy Street tells
    @BBCr4today if he'd received £10 million from Frank Hester he'd hand it back.

    "I would think about the company I kept and I would give that money back."

    No party would give back 10m without a fight. Morals and PR aside they just aren't so flush with cash they can reimburse that much without consequence.
    The one advantage that the Tories have over Labour is that they have more cash available. Handing back £10m would eliminate even that slender hope. They are not going to do it.
    If only the person who reported these remarks to the Guardian had spoken up about the racist comments in 2019, Hester would have been a busted flush and not donated £10m over the last two years and nobody would have had to get upset.

    Had the Guardian reported these comments in 2019 his company might not have got the government contracts they are complaining about as well.

    I’m guessing the political calculation was more important than the enabling of someone with racist views to grow in influence.

    The Tories need to get rid of this money either to good causes or back to Hester, he needs to be ostracised from the party but also the Guardian needs to rein in the outrage as they’ve been sitting on this and preferred political gains to stopping a bad situation as early as possible and removing someone with bad views from influence.
    What makes you think the Guardian has sat on this story for 5 years? Maybe it only recently came to thir attention.

    As it was also in the Telegraph then it was probably fed to the press recently.
    It's highly unlikely that it was the Guardian that sat on the story.
    But quite likely someone else did for a while before giving to to them.

    Which is, I think, what boulay suggested.
    boulay wrote: "the Guardian needs to rein in the outrage as they’ve been sitting on this". Where is the evidence for this?
    There isn't.
    Taz said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @hzeffman

    NEW: Conservative mayor of the West Midlands Andy Street tells
    @BBCr4today if he'd received £10 million from Frank Hester he'd hand it back.

    "I would think about the company I kept and I would give that money back."

    No party would give back 10m without a fight. Morals and PR aside they just aren't so flush with cash they can reimburse that much without consequence.
    Even the sainted Lib Dems, the holiest of holies, did not hand back the millions they took from a convicted fraudster.
    There's a big difference between handing it back, and taking more from the same source - which some cabinet numpty has said would be OK.
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    Not a surprise. My local morrisons is dead now. Staff are demoralised.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    If I buy a lot of food, Morrisons regularly give me a money-off petrol voucher that, even with the deduction, is still well above the price I can get locally. Or at other supermarkets *without* any deductions.
    Theyre just massively over geared

    Ive noticed the squeeze at my local store. Few staff, no heating, stock outs.
    Why are such "takeovers" allowed

    Unacceptable face of Capitalism
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,187

    DavidL said:

    British armed forces have gone full Games of Thrones:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vg2IuPKqvt4

    A useful weapons system, as long as the enemy doesn't attack in a rainstorm... ;)

    (Lasers and moisture don't get on well. In the case of microwave systems, you just end up with warm rain)
    So the BRITISH army have a weapon system that doesn't work in the rain? Jeez.
    It's hard for *any* directed energy beam weapon to work in bad or poor weather, for a variety of reasons that differ according to the system. Lasers can get diffracted by moisture such as rain or fog, and much of the energy of microwave systems get absorbed by the moisture. From memory, scintillation can also occur. This does not render them useless, but can reduce the effective range. Adaptive optics may help with lasers, but only to a certain extent.

    They could easily become very useful, particularly for far-off targets, but are far from being a comprehensive solution at the moment. But given the rise of drone warfare, the advantages of such systems may be rapidly outweighing the negatives.
    At the moment cloudy weather is inhibiting drone operations too, presumably because you don't want to put expensive optics/radar onto what is purposefully a disposable platform. So not being able to operate in the rain mostly shouldn't be a problem - not so many drones then either.
    As laser energies increase, there is an effect where the laser "burns" a hole for itself in clouds/smoke/rain.

    Hypersonic weapons will have problems with rain, as well. Took quite a lot of tests to design an ICBM warhead that could survive a rainstorm at Mach 20.
    There's a couple of other points.

    First, the new systems will be used in conjunction with conventional missiles anyway. They are already a useful supplement.

    Secondly, a lot of anti small drone stuff (which is where cost-effectiveness is most important) can be conducted at very short ranges, which will mitigate the effects of rain or smoke.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,208
    Truman said:

    For example the people who benefit most from progressive socially liberal policies tend to be our publich school educated elites. They can buy their way out of bad areas with the wrong sort of people and their daughters benefit at the expense of the white working class from the workplace bring opened to women.

    For example, your posts certainly start to convince me we should send NATO ground troops to Ukraine to defeat that shithead Putin.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,153
    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    A

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Did anyone care what Hester thought about anything in 2019? Would anyone care now if it wasn't for the £10m he gave to the Tories last year? It is possible that some people knew of the allegation years ago but it simply wasn't a story, not even for the Guardian, until he bought himself a place on the public stage.

    The whole story may have a materially chilling effect on future donations. If I was the Tory Treasurer that is what would worry me most. Will every potential donor be concerned that they could be "Hestered" ?

    Unless they've called for a well known politician to be shot, with references to the colour of their skin, they should be fine.

    I think people need to take a step back. Imagine if an anti-semite had given Labour £10 million under Corbyn.

    Consider the context of Sunak's speech in Downing Street, talking about tolerance and moderation.

    And this was 2019. It's not like the right-wing press held anything against Corbyn/Starmer/Abbott from a few decades back, is it?
    Or the Starmer Labour Party who suspended her unfairly and she still remains suspended.

    She has said, as a black woman she has no faith she will get any justice from Labour.

    Yet you happily dismissed this yesterday. Why, it would almost appear that your concern for Diane Abbott was more about getting in digs at your political opponents than any support for her as a victim of prejudice.

    Ed Balls had the decency to call Labour out for this yesterday. Diane is, as a politician, sinned against by many people. It also includes her own side.
    An unfair suspension is rather different to a call for her to be shot.
    I suspect that in this instance "being shot" or "up against the wall" is an unfortunate political metaphor like "stabbed in the back" or "decapitation" rather than serious murderous intent.

    Perhaps all these need to be retired from discourse in the modern era.
    So such sayings should be sent to an early grave?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Foxy said:

    nico679 said:

    So the government line is no matter how many racist comments you make you can just apologize and that’s the end of it .

    Actually I am OK with that, provided the apology is sincere, and there is visible making of amends.

    Apologising and repenting is something to be encouraged and supported. Far better than a Social Media lynchmob.
    I concur, a sincere apology should be treated with compassion. However, the money is problematic, given its a third of their annual income.
    It's a bad thing that the party's income is so dependent on one person, whoever he is.
    Corbyn was right (again)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,651

    HYUFD said:

    I was accused of trolling when I made this point a few weeks ago.

    UK will need closer EU relations if Trump wins US presidency, senior Tories say

    The comments by Theresa May’s former de facto DPM comes as @ConsEurope launch a new report pushing for a softening of the Brexit deal


    https://twitter.com/singharj/status/1767814173730250797

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/02/14/has-trump-ensured-the-uk-rejoins-the-eu/

    Canada and Turkey and Norway and Iceland are also in NATO but not in the EU like we are
    Iceland and Norway are in the EEA. Turkey wanted to be in the EU. Canada is barred from EU membership on grounds of geography.
    So HYUFD is right. There is no requirement to be in the EU or even the EEA to be part of NATO.

    This is just more desperate arm waving by the Eurofanatics.
    Where did anyone say there was a requirement to be in the EU or even the EEA to be part of NATO?

    If Trump pulls out of or destabilises NATO, it stands to reason that we might look to alternative supranational structures for international collaboration.
    Nope. Just more wishful thinking by the pro-EU nutters. NATO would still exist whether the US was in it or not, and the other members would do nothing to inhibit a US return once the Golden Shower was out of power.
    The world will look different if America succumbs to hard right nationalism (via Trump/Maga) so Europe's military arrangements probably will be too. Whatever the new continental defence settlement looks like (or is called) the UK will be a major player in it, I'd have thought, unless god forbid we follow America to the dark side ourselves.

    But let's hope all of that shit doesn't happen. We'll find out in November if America really are about to head in that direction. It looks precarious right now but on balance I don't think they will. I think their better side will prevail.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,468
    A year or so ago, a video was released of the conversation between Macron and Zelensky on the first morning of the Russian invasion. It showed Macron in a rather better light than the press he had been getting at the time.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OedZH9Oi9Sc

    Here's another one, of a conversation between Macron and Putin four days before the war, which shows Putin to be either deluded and/or a rather big liar.
    https://twitter.com/spooked75/status/1767787253831495773
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,187
    Truman said:

    Not a surprise. My local morrisons is dead now. Staff are demoralised.
    Where's your local ?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,468
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    British armed forces have gone full Games of Thrones:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vg2IuPKqvt4

    A useful weapons system, as long as the enemy doesn't attack in a rainstorm... ;)

    (Lasers and moisture don't get on well. In the case of microwave systems, you just end up with warm rain)
    So the BRITISH army have a weapon system that doesn't work in the rain? Jeez.
    It's hard for *any* directed energy beam weapon to work in bad or poor weather, for a variety of reasons that differ according to the system. Lasers can get diffracted by moisture such as rain or fog, and much of the energy of microwave systems get absorbed by the moisture. From memory, scintillation can also occur. This does not render them useless, but can reduce the effective range. Adaptive optics may help with lasers, but only to a certain extent.

    They could easily become very useful, particularly for far-off targets, but are far from being a comprehensive solution at the moment. But given the rise of drone warfare, the advantages of such systems may be rapidly outweighing the negatives.
    At the moment cloudy weather is inhibiting drone operations too, presumably because you don't want to put expensive optics/radar onto what is purposefully a disposable platform. So not being able to operate in the rain mostly shouldn't be a problem - not so many drones then either.
    As laser energies increase, there is an effect where the laser "burns" a hole for itself in clouds/smoke/rain.

    Hypersonic weapons will have problems with rain, as well. Took quite a lot of tests to design an ICBM warhead that could survive a rainstorm at Mach 20.
    There's a couple of other points.

    First, the new systems will be used in conjunction with conventional missiles anyway. They are already a useful supplement.

    Secondly, a lot of anti small drone stuff (which is where cost-effectiveness is most important) can be conducted at very short ranges, which will mitigate the effects of rain or smoke.
    The big problem is power. Most of these systems are *really* power hungry. You cannot just strap more onto the ship, as the USA did with AA guns during WW2
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,153

    Foxy said:

    nico679 said:

    So the government line is no matter how many racist comments you make you can just apologize and that’s the end of it .

    Actually I am OK with that, provided the apology is sincere, and there is visible making of amends.

    Apologising and repenting is something to be encouraged and supported. Far better than a Social Media lynchmob.
    I concur, a sincere apology should be treated with compassion. However, the money is problematic, given its a third of their annual income.
    It's a bad thing that the party's income is so dependent on one person, whoever he is.
    Corbyn was right (again)
    Less right than those who want the big donations stopped from individuals, businesses and unions. £1k per person per year is more than enough. Businesses, unions and other organisations should be able to co-ordinate such donations but not make them unilaterally, otherwise it is still dependent on a handful of people.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,898

    nico679 said:

    So the government line is no matter how many racist comments you make you can just apologize and that’s the end of it .

    Hester isn't a Conservative minister or MP. He's a donor. As long as he's not unduly influencing Conservative Party policy, what's the problem? Isn't it better than the £10 million is out of Hester's (a racist) hands and with a party (in their view!) committed to equality?

    They've also not said anything about "how many racist comments you make". You've made that bit up.
    Yes I'm sure the guy who provides the ruling party with a third of their income has absolutely no influence at all.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,187
    One interesting thing apparent from the transcripts of the Biden interview regarding the classified documents is the effort he put into trying to persuade Obama against the "surges" in both Iraq and Afghanistan.

    Link to the transcripts here;
    https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/1767535605825564679
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,153
    What price do people think Biden will be on Betfair for Dem nominee at the start of the convention in August? Assuming nothing much has changed before then (some people saying he is too old, others that he is fine, the odd clip of dodderiness but no significant change).
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,898
    Truman said:

    For example the people who benefit most from progressive socially liberal policies tend to be our publich school educated elites. They can buy their way out of bad areas with the wrong sort of people and their daughters benefit at the expense of the white working class from the workplace bring opened to women.

    Because there are no white working class women, obviously. The working class reproduces asexually, furnishing their offspring from cloth caps, whippets and pints of mild.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,187

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    British armed forces have gone full Games of Thrones:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vg2IuPKqvt4

    A useful weapons system, as long as the enemy doesn't attack in a rainstorm... ;)

    (Lasers and moisture don't get on well. In the case of microwave systems, you just end up with warm rain)
    So the BRITISH army have a weapon system that doesn't work in the rain? Jeez.
    It's hard for *any* directed energy beam weapon to work in bad or poor weather, for a variety of reasons that differ according to the system. Lasers can get diffracted by moisture such as rain or fog, and much of the energy of microwave systems get absorbed by the moisture. From memory, scintillation can also occur. This does not render them useless, but can reduce the effective range. Adaptive optics may help with lasers, but only to a certain extent.

    They could easily become very useful, particularly for far-off targets, but are far from being a comprehensive solution at the moment. But given the rise of drone warfare, the advantages of such systems may be rapidly outweighing the negatives.
    At the moment cloudy weather is inhibiting drone operations too, presumably because you don't want to put expensive optics/radar onto what is purposefully a disposable platform. So not being able to operate in the rain mostly shouldn't be a problem - not so many drones then either.
    As laser energies increase, there is an effect where the laser "burns" a hole for itself in clouds/smoke/rain.

    Hypersonic weapons will have problems with rain, as well. Took quite a lot of tests to design an ICBM warhead that could survive a rainstorm at Mach 20.
    There's a couple of other points.

    First, the new systems will be used in conjunction with conventional missiles anyway. They are already a useful supplement.

    Secondly, a lot of anti small drone stuff (which is where cost-effectiveness is most important) can be conducted at very short ranges, which will mitigate the effects of rain or smoke.
    The big problem is power. Most of these systems are *really* power hungry. You cannot just strap more onto the ship, as the USA did with AA guns during WW2
    Some of the anti-small drone ones aren't particularly.
    And if it's a nuclear powered aircraft carrier... or point defence for a nuclear power station (for example) you probably can.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 935
    Bring back fixed term Parliaments instead of this daily guesswork which does nothing for the Stock Market or the economy.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,208
    Eabhal said:

    A

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Did anyone care what Hester thought about anything in 2019? Would anyone care now if it wasn't for the £10m he gave to the Tories last year? It is possible that some people knew of the allegation years ago but it simply wasn't a story, not even for the Guardian, until he bought himself a place on the public stage.

    The whole story may have a materially chilling effect on future donations. If I was the Tory Treasurer that is what would worry me most. Will every potential donor be concerned that they could be "Hestered" ?

    Unless they've called for a well known politician to be shot, with references to the colour of their skin, they should be fine.

    I think people need to take a step back. Imagine if an anti-semite had given Labour £10 million under Corbyn.

    Consider the context of Sunak's speech in Downing Street, talking about tolerance and moderation.

    And this was 2019. It's not like the right-wing press held anything against Corbyn/Starmer/Abbott from a few decades back, is it?
    Or the Starmer Labour Party who suspended her unfairly and she still remains suspended.

    She has said, as a black woman she has no faith she will get any justice from Labour.

    Yet you happily dismissed this yesterday. Why, it would almost appear that your concern for Diane Abbott was more about getting in digs at your political opponents than any support for her as a victim of prejudice.

    Ed Balls had the decency to call Labour out for this yesterday. Diane is, as a politician, sinned against by many people. It also includes her own side.
    An unfair suspension is rather different to a call for her to be shot.
    Also not giving Abbott the benefit of the doubt about racist comments she made, while not giving this other guy the benefit of the doubt over racist comments he made seems admirably consistent, if anything.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,679
    edited March 13
    Latest EMA pf polls show Tories with 98 seats including one gain (Moray West from SNP)

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,468
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    British armed forces have gone full Games of Thrones:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vg2IuPKqvt4

    A useful weapons system, as long as the enemy doesn't attack in a rainstorm... ;)

    (Lasers and moisture don't get on well. In the case of microwave systems, you just end up with warm rain)
    So the BRITISH army have a weapon system that doesn't work in the rain? Jeez.
    It's hard for *any* directed energy beam weapon to work in bad or poor weather, for a variety of reasons that differ according to the system. Lasers can get diffracted by moisture such as rain or fog, and much of the energy of microwave systems get absorbed by the moisture. From memory, scintillation can also occur. This does not render them useless, but can reduce the effective range. Adaptive optics may help with lasers, but only to a certain extent.

    They could easily become very useful, particularly for far-off targets, but are far from being a comprehensive solution at the moment. But given the rise of drone warfare, the advantages of such systems may be rapidly outweighing the negatives.
    At the moment cloudy weather is inhibiting drone operations too, presumably because you don't want to put expensive optics/radar onto what is purposefully a disposable platform. So not being able to operate in the rain mostly shouldn't be a problem - not so many drones then either.
    As laser energies increase, there is an effect where the laser "burns" a hole for itself in clouds/smoke/rain.

    Hypersonic weapons will have problems with rain, as well. Took quite a lot of tests to design an ICBM warhead that could survive a rainstorm at Mach 20.
    There's a couple of other points.

    First, the new systems will be used in conjunction with conventional missiles anyway. They are already a useful supplement.

    Secondly, a lot of anti small drone stuff (which is where cost-effectiveness is most important) can be conducted at very short ranges, which will mitigate the effects of rain or smoke.
    The big problem is power. Most of these systems are *really* power hungry. You cannot just strap more onto the ship, as the USA did with AA guns during WW2
    Some of the anti-small drone ones aren't particularly.
    And if it's a nuclear powered aircraft carrier... or point defence for a nuclear power station (for example) you probably can.
    Yes, but some of the development systems being installed on ships by the US cannot be installed on older ships of the same class because for power reasons. (from memory, the Helios system, but I might be wrong.)
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,153
    theakes said:

    Bring back fixed term Parliaments instead of this daily guesswork which does nothing for the Stock Market or the economy.

    Use a random draw generator. Each day has a 1 in 1500 chance of calling a fresh election.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,187

    What price do people think Biden will be on Betfair for Dem nominee at the start of the convention in August? Assuming nothing much has changed before then (some people saying he is too old, others that he is fine, the odd clip of dodderiness but no significant change).

    About 1.01 / 1.02
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645
    The Festival Day 2. 🐎
    Was looking forward to action packed salmagundi Wednesday, a bumper, the cross country, and after bookies stung yesterday by favourites winning sometimes a little too easy imo, today the races are a lot more competitive and I think some surprises.

    But no cross county 😭. It’s waterlogged. I love the cross country “as they come off the embankment, they will cut through Mrs Miggins Tea Garden, up to the Elephant next, round the castle, and will take on the proverbial conifers.” Also, a 3m5f country chase through heavy mud that still doesn’t have a handicap on it, Coko Beach was absolutely nailed on, my Napoleon.

    On the main courses they are saying the going is soft, heavy in places - but arguably they shouldn’t have started with that going yesterday only to change after two races.

    And my tips for today. With those revised times, though your bookmaker like mine might not be using them

    Cheltenham 1.45 - Handstands
    Cheltenham 2.30 - Stay Away Fay
    Cheltenham 3.15 - Da Capo Glory e/w
    Cheltenham 4.00 - Elixir De Nutz
    Cheltenham 4:50 - Madara
    Cheltenham 5.30 - Romeo Coolio

    Have a good afternoon 🙂
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,127
    theakes said:

    Bring back fixed term Parliaments instead of this daily guesswork which does nothing for the Stock Market or the economy.

    The irony is that during the Fixed Term Parliament act period no Parliament went to term and we had 2 unscheduled General Elections.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,923
    theakes said:

    Bring back fixed term Parliaments instead of this daily guesswork which does nothing for the Stock Market or the economy.

    Fixed term parliaments don’t work either. Remember that there were 3 elections held under the auspices of the FTPA and only one was actually called on the fixed date the election was scheduled for.

    The country has coped fine without fixed term elections before. Is there any evidence it is damaging the economy (beyond a dying government making poor decisions, which is part and parcel of living in a democracy)?

    The reason it’s annoying now is because the Tories are useless and a lot of us would like them to kindly sod off now and give someone else a go.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,909
    edited March 13

    theakes said:

    Bring back fixed term Parliaments instead of this daily guesswork which does nothing for the Stock Market or the economy.

    Use a random draw generator. Each day has a 1 in 1500 chance of calling a fresh election.
    8.8% probability of the Parliament lasting at least ten years.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,153
    Nigelb said:

    What price do people think Biden will be on Betfair for Dem nominee at the start of the convention in August? Assuming nothing much has changed before then (some people saying he is too old, others that he is fine, the odd clip of dodderiness but no significant change).

    About 1.01 / 1.02
    Thanks, I was thinking still something like 1.1-1.15! The conspiracy lot seem pretty obstinate and determined. In their mind Biden is gaga and can't possibly stand so is just waiting for the big convention reveal to pass the baton on to Michelle or Newsom.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,909

    theakes said:

    Bring back fixed term Parliaments instead of this daily guesswork which does nothing for the Stock Market or the economy.

    Use a random draw generator. Each day has a 1 in 1500 chance of calling a fresh election.
    8.8% probability of the Parliament lasting at least ten years.
    If you adjusted the algorithm so that it was a 1 in 1499 chance on day 2, and so on, then you'd avoid the chance of an indefinite Parliament.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Barnesian said:

    Latest EMA pf polls show Tories with 98 seats including one gain (Moray West from SNP)

    Where are the two predicted Labour losses?
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    kamski said:

    Eabhal said:

    A

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Did anyone care what Hester thought about anything in 2019? Would anyone care now if it wasn't for the £10m he gave to the Tories last year? It is possible that some people knew of the allegation years ago but it simply wasn't a story, not even for the Guardian, until he bought himself a place on the public stage.

    The whole story may have a materially chilling effect on future donations. If I was the Tory Treasurer that is what would worry me most. Will every potential donor be concerned that they could be "Hestered" ?

    Unless they've called for a well known politician to be shot, with references to the colour of their skin, they should be fine.

    I think people need to take a step back. Imagine if an anti-semite had given Labour £10 million under Corbyn.

    Consider the context of Sunak's speech in Downing Street, talking about tolerance and moderation.

    And this was 2019. It's not like the right-wing press held anything against Corbyn/Starmer/Abbott from a few decades back, is it?
    Or the Starmer Labour Party who suspended her unfairly and she still remains suspended.

    She has said, as a black woman she has no faith she will get any justice from Labour.

    Yet you happily dismissed this yesterday. Why, it would almost appear that your concern for Diane Abbott was more about getting in digs at your political opponents than any support for her as a victim of prejudice.

    Ed Balls had the decency to call Labour out for this yesterday. Diane is, as a politician, sinned against by many people. It also includes her own side.
    An unfair suspension is rather different to a call for her to be shot.
    Also not giving Abbott the benefit of the doubt about racist comments she made, while not giving this other guy the benefit of the doubt over racist comments he made seems admirably consistent, if anything.
    She is a repeat offender too, saying several racist things over the years. This Tory donor's racism is unacceptable because it was racist - it doesn't matter who the individual was, because it is an insult to all black people. But the idea Abbott requires support after she is a prime offender of racism is ridiculous. She was a Member of Parliament when she attacked white nurses on the NHS, punching down from her position of power. The fact she gets away with it is due to Labour and the UK media's anti-white prejudice.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,127
    edited March 13

    If I buy a lot of food, Morrisons regularly give me a money-off petrol voucher that, even with the deduction, is still well above the price I can get locally. Or at other supermarkets *without* any deductions.
    Theyre just massively over geared

    Ive noticed the squeeze at my local store. Few staff, no heating, stock outs.
    Why are such "takeovers" allowed

    Unacceptable face of Capitalism
    It's a feature of the modern era, from Manchester United, to Spire Hospitals to Morrisons. Its also an issue behind the inflated Vets fees in the news this week, contracts for children's institutional care, General Practice etc.

    The common factor is Private Equity taking over and looting the system with financial engineering and charges delivered by a casualised and dumbed down workforce. There is little or no attempt at improving the quality or competitiveness of the business. Its how we end up increasing spending and getting a shit service.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645
    Taz said:

    Israel is not a safe state for some,

    A Palestinian citizen of Israel has been granted asylum in the UK after claiming he would face persecution in his home country on the grounds of his race, his Muslim faith and his opinion that Israel “is governed by an apartheid regime”.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/palestinian-citizen-of-israel-granted-asylum-in-uk-in-case-said-to-be-unprecedented/ar-BB1jM60G?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=50712b8b551147b995cfcd80577fa49f&ei=22

    Why has the Tory government done this? It undermines at least several re-election slogans across key policies doesn’t it?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961

    NEW THREAD

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,651

    Nigelb said:

    What price do people think Biden will be on Betfair for Dem nominee at the start of the convention in August? Assuming nothing much has changed before then (some people saying he is too old, others that he is fine, the odd clip of dodderiness but no significant change).

    About 1.01 / 1.02
    Thanks, I was thinking still something like 1.1-1.15! The conspiracy lot seem pretty obstinate and determined. In their mind Biden is gaga and can't possibly stand so is just waiting for the big convention reveal to pass the baton on to Michelle or Newsom.
    Good question. I'd guess 05/06.

    There's been a big move recently. 1.45 into 1.2.

    You thinking of lumping on at that?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645
    Dura_Ace said:



    Having inherited an understanding and liking of conservatism from my father, I don’t want to see it marginalised, weakened and supplanted by right wing populism in my homeland. This is very disconcerting times the more I think about it. 150 Conservative Party MPs won’t share much with the other 500 MPs in Parliament, so conservatism will be very marginalised. The current polling is in the middle of the 23-28% range, the MRP point to not much more than 100 MPs.

    Why the fuck does Sunak give a tomato skin laden shit about any of that? Weighed in the balance of being PM for another 6-8 months, the richly deserved fate of the tory party means nothing.
    I can’t possibly agree. Like it’s down to just one person who’s in it for himself?

    If that’s true, they could get picked up and thrown out the window, like what happened once.

    I am now picking up the very opposite vibe of what you are saying - shop tired and unwell Rishi, with campaign experts around him saying May, but the party power brokers like influential MPs and the 1922 not at all convinced of throwing away 7 months of recovery time, when a lot can still change.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,153
    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    What price do people think Biden will be on Betfair for Dem nominee at the start of the convention in August? Assuming nothing much has changed before then (some people saying he is too old, others that he is fine, the odd clip of dodderiness but no significant change).

    About 1.01 / 1.02
    Thanks, I was thinking still something like 1.1-1.15! The conspiracy lot seem pretty obstinate and determined. In their mind Biden is gaga and can't possibly stand so is just waiting for the big convention reveal to pass the baton on to Michelle or Newsom.
    Good question. I'd guess 05/06.

    There's been a big move recently. 1.45 into 1.2.

    You thinking of lumping on at that?
    Already heavily on. Just musing on strategy.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,119
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    British armed forces have gone full Games of Thrones:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vg2IuPKqvt4

    A useful weapons system, as long as the enemy doesn't attack in a rainstorm... ;)

    (Lasers and moisture don't get on well. In the case of microwave systems, you just end up with warm rain)
    So the BRITISH army have a weapon system that doesn't work in the rain? Jeez.
    It's hard for *any* directed energy beam weapon to work in bad or poor weather, for a variety of reasons that differ according to the system. Lasers can get diffracted by moisture such as rain or fog, and much of the energy of microwave systems get absorbed by the moisture. From memory, scintillation can also occur. This does not render them useless, but can reduce the effective range. Adaptive optics may help with lasers, but only to a certain extent.

    They could easily become very useful, particularly for far-off targets, but are far from being a comprehensive solution at the moment. But given the rise of drone warfare, the advantages of such systems may be rapidly outweighing the negatives.
    At the moment cloudy weather is inhibiting drone operations too, presumably because you don't want to put expensive optics/radar onto what is purposefully a disposable platform. So not being able to operate in the rain mostly shouldn't be a problem - not so many drones then either.
    As laser energies increase, there is an effect where the laser "burns" a hole for itself in clouds/smoke/rain.

    Hypersonic weapons will have problems with rain, as well. Took quite a lot of tests to design an ICBM warhead that could survive a rainstorm at Mach 20.
    There's a couple of other points.

    First, the new systems will be used in conjunction with conventional missiles anyway. They are already a useful supplement.

    Secondly, a lot of anti small drone stuff (which is where cost-effectiveness is most important) can be conducted at very short ranges, which will mitigate the effects of rain or smoke.
    The big problem is power. Most of these systems are *really* power hungry. You cannot just strap more onto the ship, as the USA did with AA guns during WW2
    Some of the anti-small drone ones aren't particularly.
    And if it's a nuclear powered aircraft carrier... or point defence for a nuclear power station (for example) you probably can.
    Warship and some aircraft design has been building in extra power for this kind of thing for a while. Future proofing.

    Note that Dragon Fire is apparently a 50kW laser. Which is the electrical output of a not especially large portable generator.

    Ships have main power in terms of 10s of megawatts.

    The future proofing has generally assumed directed energy weapons in the megawatt class.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,119

    Taz said:

    Israel is not a safe state for some,

    A Palestinian citizen of Israel has been granted asylum in the UK after claiming he would face persecution in his home country on the grounds of his race, his Muslim faith and his opinion that Israel “is governed by an apartheid regime”.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/palestinian-citizen-of-israel-granted-asylum-in-uk-in-case-said-to-be-unprecedented/ar-BB1jM60G?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=50712b8b551147b995cfcd80577fa49f&ei=22

    Why has the Tory government done this? It undermines at least several re-election slogans across key policies doesn’t it?
    Because of reality.

    For all the people frotting themselves at the thought of a Tory government drowning asylum seekers (in they of Greece and Italy), the reality has been the government block booking 3 star hotels to house them.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,187
    edited March 13

    Nigelb said:

    What price do people think Biden will be on Betfair for Dem nominee at the start of the convention in August? Assuming nothing much has changed before then (some people saying he is too old, others that he is fine, the odd clip of dodderiness but no significant change).

    About 1.01 / 1.02
    Thanks, I was thinking still something like 1.1-1.15! The conspiracy lot seem pretty obstinate and determined. In their mind Biden is gaga and can't possibly stand so is just waiting for the big convention reveal to pass the baton on to Michelle or Newsom.
    It's already 1.17/1.18 - and that's with five months left for random shit to happen.
    At some point there will be capitulation.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,899

    If I buy a lot of food, Morrisons regularly give me a money-off petrol voucher that, even with the deduction, is still well above the price I can get locally. Or at other supermarkets *without* any deductions.
    Theyre just massively over geared

    Ive noticed the squeeze at my local store. Few staff, no heating, stock outs.
    My Morrisons - a big one - has lost distinctiveness and seems to be following ASDA, where previously it offered a lot of distinctiveness at a competitive price level.

    Service based offerings such as the deli counter have been pushed towards "that is now in packs over there on the display".
This discussion has been closed.