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Holidays can be cancelled of course – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,917
edited March 24 in General
Holidays can be cancelled of course – politicalbetting.com

The argument for a May election is presumably that things will get even worse for the Tories over the summer?Calling an election amid funding scandals, public service failure and a weak economy, with a divided party and no plan for the future seems otherwise sub-optimal.

Read the full story here

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  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483
    edited March 12
    3rd.

    Like Leeanderthal's place at the next Ashfield election.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,029
    TimS said:

    A reminder I have a romantic getaway planned from the 3rd of May through to the 6th of May, don't you dare feck this up for me Rishi.

    What could be more romantic than following a general election and posting the occasional thread header?
    'Were you up for X?

    'You bet!'
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483

    A reminder I have a romantic getaway planned from the 3rd of May through to the 6th of May, don't you dare feck this up for me Rishi.

    Sounds like it needs to be to the Cheshire Cheese in Castleton.

    Just in case.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883
    MattW said:

    3rd.

    Like Leeanderthal's place at the next Ashfield election.

    And Tories fourth?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    FFS

    The newly expanded Champions League will have a tennis-style seeding system instead of a draw for the knock-out stages, and now involve a hybrid digital-manual draw for the “Swiss system” group stage.

    An idea to even have a “US draft” style pick for knock-outs - where clubs would get to pick potential knock-out opponents depending on their table finish - was even discussed by Uefa, as a number of possibilities were raised.

    Although the Champions League draw has become one of the showpiece events of the competition, Uefa modelling showed that a straight draw for who plays who in the opening stage would take up to four hours. It will instead by a hybrid system, with some of it digital and the rest manual, overseen by firms such as Ernst and Young. The exact process is still being discussed.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/champions-league-uefa-draw-draft-2024-b2511342.html
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033

    TimS said:

    A reminder I have a romantic getaway planned from the 3rd of May through to the 6th of May, don't you dare feck this up for me Rishi.

    What could be more romantic than following a general election and posting the occasional thread header?
    'Were you up for X?

    'You bet!'
    Would you like to see my swing-o-meter?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,905
    Did the Russians base this on a Boeing design ?

    Footage of one of the D-30 turbofan engines falling off the plane.
    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1767563826189185278
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    Come on Rishi, announce tomorrow morning that the GE is 2nd May - it'll knock the wind out of Starmer's PMQ attack at midday.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,905
    Special counsel Robert Hur testifies before House on Biden documents report: Watch live
    https://thehill.com/video-clips/4525998-special-counsel-robert-hur-testifies-biden-docs-report-watch-live/

    Hur tells his first lie: Biden never failed to return documents.

    The entire point about this investigation is that he RETURNED DOCUMENTS when he found them.

    https://twitter.com/emptywheel/status/1767561451974053965
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,367
    On the holiday thing, both 1997 and 2015 had Easter during the campaign period...

    1997: Dissolution - 17th March, Easter - 30th March
    2015: Dissolution - 30th March, Easter - 5th April
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483

    MattW said:

    3rd.

    Like Leeanderthal's place at the next Ashfield election.

    And Tories fourth?
    Possible Tory candidates I give you:

    Dawn Justice
    Phil Rostance

    The only Tory Councillors at present.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,029

    TimS said:

    A reminder I have a romantic getaway planned from the 3rd of May through to the 6th of May, don't you dare feck this up for me Rishi.

    What could be more romantic than following a general election and posting the occasional thread header?
    'Were you up for X?

    'You bet!'
    Would you like to see my swing-o-meter?
    He's lost his deposit (that's enough-ed)
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    TimS said:

    A reminder I have a romantic getaway planned from the 3rd of May through to the 6th of May, don't you dare feck this up for me Rishi.

    What could be more romantic than following a general election and posting the occasional thread header?
    Does my bar chart look big in this?
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,048
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    3rd.

    Like Leeanderthal's place at the next Ashfield election.

    And Tories fourth?
    Possible Tory candidates I give you:

    Dawn Justice
    Phil Rostance

    The only Tory Councillors at present.
    Dawn Justice sounds more like a firing squad than a potential MP!
  • Options
    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    Come on Rishi, announce tomorrow morning that the GE is 2nd May - it'll knock the wind out of Starmer's PMQ attack at midday.

    The ultimate pyrrhic victory!
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,422
    Nigelb said:

    Did the Russians base this on a Boeing design ?

    Footage of one of the D-30 turbofan engines falling off the plane.
    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1767563826189185278

    To be fair, some aircraft with under wing pylon mounted engines are designed so that if the (say) the vibrational forces on the engine exceed certain limits, it will shear off.

    So if an engine its fan smashed up (for example), the vibration breaks the bolts holding the engine on, before the wing gets damaged.

    IIRC, Boeing actually changed away from this philosophy in 1993, after El Al Flight 1862
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202

    A reminder I have a romantic getaway planned from the 3rd of May through to the 6th of May, don't you dare feck this up for me Rishi.

    Surely you’d be up for a new government? 😘
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    3rd.

    Like Leeanderthal's place at the next Ashfield election.

    And Tories fourth?
    Possible Tory candidates I give you:

    Dawn Justice
    Phil Rostance

    The only Tory Councillors at present.
    Dawn Justice is a great name for an early morning declaration.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,905
    I didn't fully appreciate that the dynamic of this hearing is that everybody is mad at Hur. Dems are mad at him for his obvious hit job on Biden, and Rs are mad at him because his hit job didn't go far enough and result in a prosecution.
    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1767565011059105846
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,758
    AlsoLei said:

    On the holiday thing, both 1997 and 2015 had Easter during the campaign period...

    1997: Dissolution - 17th March, Easter - 30th March
    2015: Dissolution - 30th March, Easter - 5th April

    Why was the dissolution in 1997 so much earlier? The election was six days earlier, but that doesn't explain why the dissolution was 13 days earlier.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    Chianti Classico. Woo. Warrior of a horse.

    But when stumbled over the last, I wee’d myself a little bit.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,617
    AlsoLei said:

    On the holiday thing, both 1997 and 2015 had Easter during the campaign period...

    1997: Dissolution - 17th March, Easter - 30th March
    2015: Dissolution - 30th March, Easter - 5th April

    In my memory the 1997 campaign seemed to go on for ages.
    Things did only get better, though!
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    tlg86 said:

    AlsoLei said:

    On the holiday thing, both 1997 and 2015 had Easter during the campaign period...

    1997: Dissolution - 17th March, Easter - 30th March
    2015: Dissolution - 30th March, Easter - 5th April

    Why was the dissolution in 1997 so much earlier? The election was six days earlier, but that doesn't explain why the dissolution was 13 days earlier.
    Major wanted a long campaign - he thought that would help him, and maybe it did. Just not enough.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883
    tlg86 said:

    AlsoLei said:

    On the holiday thing, both 1997 and 2015 had Easter during the campaign period...

    1997: Dissolution - 17th March, Easter - 30th March
    2015: Dissolution - 30th March, Easter - 5th April

    Why was the dissolution in 1997 so much earlier? The election was six days earlier, but that doesn't explain why the dissolution was 13 days earlier.
    John Major wanted a long campaign to repeat his success of 1992.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,457
    tlg86 said:

    AlsoLei said:

    On the holiday thing, both 1997 and 2015 had Easter during the campaign period...

    1997: Dissolution - 17th March, Easter - 30th March
    2015: Dissolution - 30th March, Easter - 5th April

    Why was the dissolution in 1997 so much earlier? The election was six days earlier, but that doesn't explain why the dissolution was 13 days earlier.
    Was the time between dissolution fixed by the Fixed Term Parliaments Act in 2015, but not fixed before?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,905
    Selebian said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    3rd.

    Like Leeanderthal's place at the next Ashfield election.

    And Tories fourth?
    Possible Tory candidates I give you:

    Dawn Justice
    Phil Rostance

    The only Tory Councillors at present.
    Dawn Justice sounds more like a firing squad than a potential MP!
    Or the next installment in the Avengers franchise.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915

    Chianti Classico. Woo. Warrior of a horse.

    But when stumbled over the last, I wee’d myself a little bit.

    Was it a vintage performance? (The horse I mean.)
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,367
    edited March 12
    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    AlsoLei said:

    On the holiday thing, both 1997 and 2015 had Easter during the campaign period...

    1997: Dissolution - 17th March, Easter - 30th March
    2015: Dissolution - 30th March, Easter - 5th April

    Why was the dissolution in 1997 so much earlier? The election was six days earlier, but that doesn't explain why the dissolution was 13 days earlier.
    Was the time between dissolution fixed by the Fixed Term Parliaments Act in 2015, but not fixed before?
    There's an explanation at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_United_Kingdom_general_election#Timing - looks like the result of an interaction between the Parliament Act and the Representation of the People Act. Seems almost as complex as the method for calculating Easter!
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,905

    Chianti Classico. Woo. Warrior of a horse.

    But when stumbled over the last, I wee’d myself a little bit.

    Was it a vintage performance? (The horse I mean.)
    Ahead by a fine nose.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 26,553
    Holidays can be cancelled but I don’t expect any insurance to pay out.

    Having
    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    AlsoLei said:

    On the holiday thing, both 1997 and 2015 had Easter during the campaign period...

    1997: Dissolution - 17th March, Easter - 30th March
    2015: Dissolution - 30th March, Easter - 5th April

    Why was the dissolution in 1997 so much earlier? The election was six days earlier, but that doesn't explain why the dissolution was 13 days earlier.
    Was the time between dissolution fixed by the Fixed Term Parliaments Act in 2015, but not fixed before?
    Was a minimum of 17 working days before (from memory)
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202

    Chianti Classico. Woo. Warrior of a horse.

    But when stumbled over the last, I wee’d myself a little bit.

    Was it a vintage performance? (The horse I mean.)
    I should be drinking red wine.

    But yeah, it ran the perfect race. Apart from landing after the last.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    Nigelb said:

    Chianti Classico. Woo. Warrior of a horse.

    But when stumbled over the last, I wee’d myself a little bit.

    Was it a vintage performance? (The horse I mean.)
    Ahead by a fine nose.
    That would have been a Barolo laughs.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,617

    tlg86 said:

    AlsoLei said:

    On the holiday thing, both 1997 and 2015 had Easter during the campaign period...

    1997: Dissolution - 17th March, Easter - 30th March
    2015: Dissolution - 30th March, Easter - 5th April

    Why was the dissolution in 1997 so much earlier? The election was six days earlier, but that doesn't explain why the dissolution was 13 days earlier.
    John Major wanted a long campaign to repeat his success of 1992.
    The long campaign cost the Conservatives Castle Point, though. In the last week or so the Conservative candidate managed to seriously upset the Canvey Island Conservative Womens Association, who promptly downed tools. He then doubled down by asking electors in the mainland, Benfleet, area if they wanted to be represented by ‘a woman from Canvey’. If he hadn’t done those two things, he’d probably have held on!
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    edited March 12
    State Man should be strong for them. But in my notebook I put down Iberico Lord as Festival winner, but probably without knowing which race would be in. Interesting to see how Iberico Lord goes.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,520
    On topic, the election won't be September: that'd have to be called in August - although the campaign itself might well start in September.

    I still think 14 Nov, despite the risk of the US election throwing the final week or so into a bit of turmoil. That said, I can see the appeal to Sunak of calling it in early Sept, so that MPs and other parties get pretty much zero chance to use Westminster to set an agenda, and so go for something like Oct 17.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,905
    Interesting thread on the sudden massive and inexplicable rise in luxury car exports to Azerbaijan (population 10m).

    🚨The strange tale of British luxury cars & Russian sanctions🚨
    🧵A thread on some v striking charts which raise some disturbing questions abt the car industry.
    Let's start at the start.
    Wealthy Russians love high-end British cars.
    Don't just take it from me. Take it from her 👇

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1767506597553799546
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,520
    eek said:

    Holidays can be cancelled but I don’t expect any insurance to pay out.

    Having

    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    AlsoLei said:

    On the holiday thing, both 1997 and 2015 had Easter during the campaign period...

    1997: Dissolution - 17th March, Easter - 30th March
    2015: Dissolution - 30th March, Easter - 5th April

    Why was the dissolution in 1997 so much earlier? The election was six days earlier, but that doesn't explain why the dissolution was 13 days earlier.
    Was the time between dissolution fixed by the Fixed Term Parliaments Act in 2015, but not fixed before?
    Was a minimum of 17 working days before (from memory)
    I think it'd already been increased to 25 working days under Labour, possibly when the more relaxed rules on postal votes came in?

    But practice earlier was to prorogue parliament some time before the formal dissolution, which I'm sure will have been what happened in 1997. I suspect the 17 March date referred to was actually a prorogation.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,727
    If the reason not to hold a May election is that the Tories will get shafted surely it will be January election, as that argument will hold for any of June, July, August, September, October, November and December elections too.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on the sudden massive and inexplicable rise in luxury car exports to Azerbaijan (population 10m).

    🚨The strange tale of British luxury cars & Russian sanctions🚨
    🧵A thread on some v striking charts which raise some disturbing questions abt the car industry.
    Let's start at the start.
    Wealthy Russians love high-end British cars.
    Don't just take it from me. Take it from her 👇

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1767506597553799546

    If we’re going to be exporting things that end up in Russia I suppose we might as well concentrate on over-priced status symbols with no military value or dual use. Helpful way of retaining a bit of leverage while draining the oligarch coffers (albeit the latter only scratches the surface).
  • Options
    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,193

    If the reason not to hold a May election is that the Tories will get shafted surely it will be January election, as that argument will hold for any of June, July, August, September, October, November and December elections too.

    I refer you to the paradox of the "unexpected hanging".
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unexpected_hanging_paradox
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883

    On topic, the election won't be September: that'd have to be called in August - although the campaign itself might well start in September.

    I still think 14 Nov, despite the risk of the US election throwing the final week or so into a bit of turmoil. That said, I can see the appeal to Sunak of calling it in early Sept, so that MPs and other parties get pretty much zero chance to use Westminster to set an agenda, and so go for something like Oct 17.

    Would it not be financially ruinous to have to cancel party conference?
  • Options
    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    eek said:

    Holidays can be cancelled but I don’t expect any insurance to pay out.

    Having

    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    AlsoLei said:

    On the holiday thing, both 1997 and 2015 had Easter during the campaign period...

    1997: Dissolution - 17th March, Easter - 30th March
    2015: Dissolution - 30th March, Easter - 5th April

    Why was the dissolution in 1997 so much earlier? The election was six days earlier, but that doesn't explain why the dissolution was 13 days earlier.
    Was the time between dissolution fixed by the Fixed Term Parliaments Act in 2015, but not fixed before?
    Was a minimum of 17 working days before (from memory)
    IIRC the pre-FTPA system just laid down minimum timescales for the various legal stages of an election - the main ones being the number of days allowed between publication of the Notice of Election in each constituency and the closing date for nominations and the minimum number of days between the close of nominations and polling day. Used to be pretty tight - in Feb 1974 the whole process from announcement to polling day took just three weeks.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,733
    Sunak needs to call an election for 2 May.

    Be the bigger man.

    Don't let events and the plotters decide his future.

    Go.

    And go now.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,617

    eek said:

    Holidays can be cancelled but I don’t expect any insurance to pay out.

    Having

    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    AlsoLei said:

    On the holiday thing, both 1997 and 2015 had Easter during the campaign period...

    1997: Dissolution - 17th March, Easter - 30th March
    2015: Dissolution - 30th March, Easter - 5th April

    Why was the dissolution in 1997 so much earlier? The election was six days earlier, but that doesn't explain why the dissolution was 13 days earlier.
    Was the time between dissolution fixed by the Fixed Term Parliaments Act in 2015, but not fixed before?
    Was a minimum of 17 working days before (from memory)
    IIRC the pre-FTPA system just laid down minimum timescales for the various legal stages of an election - the main ones being the number of days allowed between publication of the Notice of Election in each constituency and the closing date for nominations and the minimum number of days between the close of nominations and polling day. Used to be pretty tight - in Feb 1974 the whole process from announcement to polling day took just three weeks.
    Absolute panic stations in getting a campaign together for SE Essex Liberals, as the local party had more or less collapsed after the disaster of 1970.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,520

    On topic, the election won't be September: that'd have to be called in August - although the campaign itself might well start in September.

    I still think 14 Nov, despite the risk of the US election throwing the final week or so into a bit of turmoil. That said, I can see the appeal to Sunak of calling it in early Sept, so that MPs and other parties get pretty much zero chance to use Westminster to set an agenda, and so go for something like Oct 17.

    Would it not be financially ruinous to have to cancel party conference?
    It would probably be worse for Labour. I can't imagine many corporates are queuing up to book stand space, and the number of attendees at Tory conference these days isn't what it was.

    However, that - along with the opportunities that conference brings to set the agenda - is why I've thought for over a year that Sunak will use his speech at conference to launch the election: which points to 14 Nov as polling day.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883

    If the reason not to hold a May election is that the Tories will get shafted surely it will be January election, as that argument will hold for any of June, July, August, September, October, November and December elections too.

    The cost - in terms of lost time in office - of an early election decreases as we approach January, so that it might more easily be outweighed by other factors - avoiding a Christmas campaign, not appearing completely desperate, etc.

    Consequently I expect a December 12th election -exactly five years since the previous election - but it would have to be announced in the closing days of the US Presidential election campaign.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,018
    What's the latest Sunak can get the lectern out for a May election ?
  • Options
    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    On topic, the election won't be September: that'd have to be called in August - although the campaign itself might well start in September.

    I still think 14 Nov, despite the risk of the US election throwing the final week or so into a bit of turmoil. That said, I can see the appeal to Sunak of calling it in early Sept, so that MPs and other parties get pretty much zero chance to use Westminster to set an agenda, and so go for something like Oct 17.

    Would it not be financially ruinous to have to cancel party conference?
    Not really - the parties are committed to Conference costs anyway whether or not there is an election. It will be budgeted for. No doubt there will be cancellation clauses in the venue hire agreements, though I guess it would already be too late for them to get much of a refund.
  • Options
    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,033

    tlg86 said:

    AlsoLei said:

    On the holiday thing, both 1997 and 2015 had Easter during the campaign period...

    1997: Dissolution - 17th March, Easter - 30th March
    2015: Dissolution - 30th March, Easter - 5th April

    Why was the dissolution in 1997 so much earlier? The election was six days earlier, but that doesn't explain why the dissolution was 13 days earlier.
    John Major wanted a long campaign to repeat his success of 1992.
    The long campaign cost the Conservatives Castle Point, though. In the last week or so the Conservative candidate managed to seriously upset the Canvey Island Conservative Womens Association, who promptly downed tools. He then doubled down by asking electors in the mainland, Benfleet, area if they wanted to be represented by ‘a woman from Canvey’. If he hadn’t done those two things, he’d probably have held on!
    This depends on whether the brain fade was due to it being the 7th(ish) week of the campaign or the last week of the campaign.

  • Options
    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,193

    On topic, the election won't be September: that'd have to be called in August - although the campaign itself might well start in September.

    I still think 14 Nov, despite the risk of the US election throwing the final week or so into a bit of turmoil. That said, I can see the appeal to Sunak of calling it in early Sept, so that MPs and other parties get pretty much zero chance to use Westminster to set an agenda, and so go for something like Oct 17.

    Would it not be financially ruinous to have to cancel party conference?
    It would probably be worse for Labour. I can't imagine many corporates are queuing up to book stand space, and the number of attendees at Tory conference these days isn't what it was.

    However, that - along with the opportunities that conference brings to set the agenda - is why I've thought for over a year that Sunak will use his speech at conference to launch the election: which points to 14 Nov as polling day.
    Which would be fine, unless some-one defects to Reform from the conference stage.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,727
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on the sudden massive and inexplicable rise in luxury car exports to Azerbaijan (population 10m).

    🚨The strange tale of British luxury cars & Russian sanctions🚨
    🧵A thread on some v striking charts which raise some disturbing questions abt the car industry.
    Let's start at the start.
    Wealthy Russians love high-end British cars.
    Don't just take it from me. Take it from her 👇

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1767506597553799546

    Cue anyone wanting to buy a car having to give their entire financial life history and personal information to dodgy car dealers whilst Russian oligarchs find another way around whatever bureaucratic walls we put up.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187

    TimS said:

    A reminder I have a romantic getaway planned from the 3rd of May through to the 6th of May, don't you dare feck this up for me Rishi.

    What could be more romantic than following a general election and posting the occasional thread header?
    'Were you up for X?

    'You bet!'
    I once had a one night stand during a Gazette Press Trip to Rome

    We were staying at the Hotel Hassler, on top of the Spanish Steps

    It was also the night Clinton won his election, and both of us were into politics (two journalists), so we kept CNN on the TV as we went at it, which provided a weird punctuation to events

    "And Clinton's taken Virginia!"

    Slap

    "We're hearing good things about Carolina"

    Moan

    Etc


    So I see no reason why this election should not ADD to @TheScreamingEagles' romantic getaway
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    edited March 12
    Lollops along Stateman, like it’s shy.

    That would have been tighter if a handicap? Maybe not.

    Would Lossie have beaten Stateman in this one?

    Let’s see what Lossie can do in her challenge.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,727

    On topic, the election won't be September: that'd have to be called in August - although the campaign itself might well start in September.

    I still think 14 Nov, despite the risk of the US election throwing the final week or so into a bit of turmoil. That said, I can see the appeal to Sunak of calling it in early Sept, so that MPs and other parties get pretty much zero chance to use Westminster to set an agenda, and so go for something like Oct 17.

    Would it not be financially ruinous to have to cancel party conference?
    It would probably be worse for Labour. I can't imagine many corporates are queuing up to book stand space, and the number of attendees at Tory conference these days isn't what it was.

    However, that - along with the opportunities that conference brings to set the agenda - is why I've thought for over a year that Sunak will use his speech at conference to launch the election: which points to 14 Nov as polling day.
    Farage was the most popular person at last years Conservative conference. It would be even more so this year. If this is their plan back the LDs second biggest party.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    "My expectation has been we will get an election sometime between September and December of this year. Nothing has changed.”

    Agree @TSE

    The media would love it but whilst there’s any chance at all of the tories improving their chances they will hold off. Not until January, which would be suicidal, but between September and December.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187

    If the reason not to hold a May election is that the Tories will get shafted surely it will be January election, as that argument will hold for any of June, July, August, September, October, November and December elections too.

    I refer you to the paradox of the "unexpected hanging".
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unexpected_hanging_paradox
    That's brilliant. New to me. Ta
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    On topic, since me and the dog will be on the continent again come May. I’m fixing up a proxy vote, currently just for the police & commissioner election due that month. If I do miss the GE, it would be the first time ever that I have been abroad on election day.


  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883

    On topic, the election won't be September: that'd have to be called in August - although the campaign itself might well start in September.

    I still think 14 Nov, despite the risk of the US election throwing the final week or so into a bit of turmoil. That said, I can see the appeal to Sunak of calling it in early Sept, so that MPs and other parties get pretty much zero chance to use Westminster to set an agenda, and so go for something like Oct 17.

    Would it not be financially ruinous to have to cancel party conference?
    Not really - the parties are committed to Conference costs anyway whether or not there is an election. It will be budgeted for. No doubt there will be cancellation clauses in the venue hire agreements, though I guess it would already be too late for them to get much of a refund.
    They'd have to reimburse conference attendees, though.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,617
    eristdoof said:

    tlg86 said:

    AlsoLei said:

    On the holiday thing, both 1997 and 2015 had Easter during the campaign period...

    1997: Dissolution - 17th March, Easter - 30th March
    2015: Dissolution - 30th March, Easter - 5th April

    Why was the dissolution in 1997 so much earlier? The election was six days earlier, but that doesn't explain why the dissolution was 13 days earlier.
    John Major wanted a long campaign to repeat his success of 1992.
    The long campaign cost the Conservatives Castle Point, though. In the last week or so the Conservative candidate managed to seriously upset the Canvey Island Conservative Womens Association, who promptly downed tools. He then doubled down by asking electors in the mainland, Benfleet, area if they wanted to be represented by ‘a woman from Canvey’. If he hadn’t done those two things, he’d probably have held on!
    This depends on whether the brain fade was due to it being the 7th(ish) week of the campaign or the last week of the campaign.

    IIRC the rumours of a rift started about 6-7 days before the election. I wasn’t involved in any of the campaigns so it might have earlier. The offending leaflet was an ‘eve of poll’ job, at least where I lived.
  • Options

    On topic, the election won't be September: that'd have to be called in August - although the campaign itself might well start in September.

    I still think 14 Nov, despite the risk of the US election throwing the final week or so into a bit of turmoil. That said, I can see the appeal to Sunak of calling it in early Sept, so that MPs and other parties get pretty much zero chance to use Westminster to set an agenda, and so go for something like Oct 17.

    Oct 17 or Oct 24 make more sense than November simply because it's before the clocks change.

    People are more miserable in Nov than Oct after the clock change, always are, and haven't yet got Christmas cheer. Only January is more miserable than November.

    So why as an incumbent government would you want to call the polls for when people are more miserable as a whole? It makes no sense at all.

    If you're gaining extra months that's one thing, but for only a few week difference it seems counterproductive.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,733
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on the sudden massive and inexplicable rise in luxury car exports to Azerbaijan (population 10m).

    🚨The strange tale of British luxury cars & Russian sanctions🚨
    🧵A thread on some v striking charts which raise some disturbing questions abt the car industry.
    Let's start at the start.
    Wealthy Russians love high-end British cars.
    Don't just take it from me. Take it from her 👇

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1767506597553799546

    Good. The amount of idiots in the UK celebrating damage to the balance of payments (whilst clamouring for more money to be spent on public services) is one of the chief grotesqueries of 21st century Britain.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883

    On topic, the election won't be September: that'd have to be called in August - although the campaign itself might well start in September.

    I still think 14 Nov, despite the risk of the US election throwing the final week or so into a bit of turmoil. That said, I can see the appeal to Sunak of calling it in early Sept, so that MPs and other parties get pretty much zero chance to use Westminster to set an agenda, and so go for something like Oct 17.

    Oct 17 or Oct 24 make more sense than November simply because it's before the clocks change.

    People are more miserable in Nov than Oct after the clock change, always are, and haven't yet got Christmas cheer. Only January is more miserable than November.

    So why as an incumbent government would you want to call the polls for when people are more miserable as a whole? It makes no sense at all.

    If you're gaining extra months that's one thing, but for only a few week difference it seems counterproductive.
    One possible explanation is differential turnout. The Tories might trust that their postal-voting oldies will turn out regardless of the weather or darkness, but younger, home-working, anti-Tory voters might be more likely to be dissuaded by a cold, dark, wet November day.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,690

    A reminder I have a romantic getaway planned from the 3rd of May through to the 6th of May, don't you dare feck this up for me Rishi.

    That's what you get for gleefully publishing all those short jokes, eh?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,905

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on the sudden massive and inexplicable rise in luxury car exports to Azerbaijan (population 10m).

    🚨The strange tale of British luxury cars & Russian sanctions🚨
    🧵A thread on some v striking charts which raise some disturbing questions abt the car industry.
    Let's start at the start.
    Wealthy Russians love high-end British cars.
    Don't just take it from me. Take it from her 👇

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1767506597553799546

    Cue anyone wanting to buy a car having to give their entire financial life history and personal information to dodgy car dealers whilst Russian oligarchs find another way around whatever bureaucratic walls we put up.
    Yes, I agree this ought to be one to turn a blind eye to.
    After all why should the Azerbaijanis not have their Bentleys ?
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    IanB2 said:

    On topic, since me and the dog will be on the continent again come May. I’m fixing up a proxy vote, currently just for the police & commissioner election due that month. If I do miss the GE, it would be the first time ever that I have been abroad on election day.


    I was abroad on 23rd June 2016, and organised to get back in time to cast my vote in person in the Brexit referendum. Shouldn't have bothered.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,905
    IanB2 said:

    On topic, since me and the dog will be on the continent again come May. I’m fixing up a proxy vote, currently just for the police & commissioner election due that month. If I do miss the GE, it would be the first time ever that I have been abroad on election day.


    I do hope your dog doesn't work for GCHQ.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    Is the next big thing Lossiemouth, up there with Constitution Hill and Stateman?

    Has to win these races to go there.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,330

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on the sudden massive and inexplicable rise in luxury car exports to Azerbaijan (population 10m).

    🚨The strange tale of British luxury cars & Russian sanctions🚨
    🧵A thread on some v striking charts which raise some disturbing questions abt the car industry.
    Let's start at the start.
    Wealthy Russians love high-end British cars.
    Don't just take it from me. Take it from her 👇

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1767506597553799546

    Good. The amount of idiots in the UK celebrating damage to the balance of payments (whilst clamouring for more money to be spent on public services) is one of the chief grotesqueries of 21st century Britain.
    Yes, comrade.
  • Options
    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,193
    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    On topic, since me and the dog will be on the continent again come May. I’m fixing up a proxy vote, currently just for the police & commissioner election due that month. If I do miss the GE, it would be the first time ever that I have been abroad on election day.


    I do hope your dog doesn't work for GCHQ.
    Or worse, CCHQ.
  • Options
    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    On topic, the election won't be September: that'd have to be called in August - although the campaign itself might well start in September.

    I still think 14 Nov, despite the risk of the US election throwing the final week or so into a bit of turmoil. That said, I can see the appeal to Sunak of calling it in early Sept, so that MPs and other parties get pretty much zero chance to use Westminster to set an agenda, and so go for something like Oct 17.

    Would it not be financially ruinous to have to cancel party conference?
    Not really - the parties are committed to Conference costs anyway whether or not there is an election. It will be budgeted for. No doubt there will be cancellation clauses in the venue hire agreements, though I guess it would already be too late for them to get much of a refund.
    They'd have to reimburse conference attendees, though.
    There would certainly be some lost revenue, depending on how much notice of cancellation was given they might save something on hotel costs and obviously there would be no travel, certainly there would be a financial loss overall. but in the context of a major party's election year budget it wouldn't be massive. And Labour would easily make it up next year (no complacency of course 😉)
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483
    Reflecting on TSE's holiday.

    Is this a good way to prevent an election?
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 26,553

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on the sudden massive and inexplicable rise in luxury car exports to Azerbaijan (population 10m).

    🚨The strange tale of British luxury cars & Russian sanctions🚨
    🧵A thread on some v striking charts which raise some disturbing questions abt the car industry.
    Let's start at the start.
    Wealthy Russians love high-end British cars.
    Don't just take it from me. Take it from her 👇

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1767506597553799546

    Good. The amount of idiots in the UK celebrating damage to the balance of payments (whilst clamouring for more money to be spent on public services) is one of the chief grotesqueries of 21st century Britain.
    You seem to have missed the point - our luxury car companies have completely ignored the sanctions that were implemented.

    Given that the choices are jail the executives or fine the companies significant sums of money what should be done?
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,727
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on the sudden massive and inexplicable rise in luxury car exports to Azerbaijan (population 10m).

    🚨The strange tale of British luxury cars & Russian sanctions🚨
    🧵A thread on some v striking charts which raise some disturbing questions abt the car industry.
    Let's start at the start.
    Wealthy Russians love high-end British cars.
    Don't just take it from me. Take it from her 👇

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1767506597553799546

    Cue anyone wanting to buy a car having to give their entire financial life history and personal information to dodgy car dealers whilst Russian oligarchs find another way around whatever bureaucratic walls we put up.
    Yes, I agree this ought to be one to turn a blind eye to.
    After all why should the Azerbaijanis not have their Bentleys ?
    They are probably getting a Skoda as commission for delivering the Bentleys.
  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,798
    Will it be 1993 in reverse this time around? Polling for the October 2025 Canadian elections:

    CPC: 46% (+12)
    LPC: 25% (-8)
    NDP: 15% (-3)
    BQ: 6% (-2)
    GPC: 4% (+2)
    PPC: 2% (-3)
    Others: 2%

    Mainstreet Research / March 9, 2024 / n=1274 / MOE 2.7% / IVR

    (% Change With 2021 Federal Election)
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,733
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on the sudden massive and inexplicable rise in luxury car exports to Azerbaijan (population 10m).

    🚨The strange tale of British luxury cars & Russian sanctions🚨
    🧵A thread on some v striking charts which raise some disturbing questions abt the car industry.
    Let's start at the start.
    Wealthy Russians love high-end British cars.
    Don't just take it from me. Take it from her 👇

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1767506597553799546

    Good. The amount of idiots in the UK celebrating damage to the balance of payments (whilst clamouring for more money to be spent on public services) is one of the chief grotesqueries of 21st century Britain.
    You seem to have missed the point - our luxury car companies have completely ignored the sanctions that were implemented.

    Given that the choices are jail the executives or fine the companies significant sums of money what should be done?
    Neither should be done. As far as I can see, the only impact of such sanctions is that more money stays inside Russia or goes to countries that don't have a sanctions regime in place, and doesn't come to the UK. That weakens us and our economy, not Russia.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483

    Is the next big thing Lossiemouth, up there with Constitution Hill and Stateman?

    Has to win these races to go there.

    Are we talking about places or horses.

    Constitution Hill reminded me that that is one of the places due to be pedestrianised.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,727
    carnforth said:

    Will it be 1993 in reverse this time around? Polling for the October 2025 Canadian elections:

    CPC: 46% (+12)
    LPC: 25% (-8)
    NDP: 15% (-3)
    BQ: 6% (-2)
    GPC: 4% (+2)
    PPC: 2% (-3)
    Others: 2%

    Mainstreet Research / March 9, 2024 / n=1274 / MOE 2.7% / IVR

    (% Change With 2021 Federal Election)

    Finally some promising news for the Tories in GE 2055.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,727
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on the sudden massive and inexplicable rise in luxury car exports to Azerbaijan (population 10m).

    🚨The strange tale of British luxury cars & Russian sanctions🚨
    🧵A thread on some v striking charts which raise some disturbing questions abt the car industry.
    Let's start at the start.
    Wealthy Russians love high-end British cars.
    Don't just take it from me. Take it from her 👇

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1767506597553799546

    Good. The amount of idiots in the UK celebrating damage to the balance of payments (whilst clamouring for more money to be spent on public services) is one of the chief grotesqueries of 21st century Britain.
    You seem to have missed the point - our luxury car companies have completely ignored the sanctions that were implemented.

    Given that the choices are jail the executives or fine the companies significant sums of money what should be done?
    Demand a £10m donation to Tory central coffers to replace suddenly depleted funds, turn the other way, and dole out a couple of MBEs?
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,326
    Nigelb said:

    Selebian said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    3rd.

    Like Leeanderthal's place at the next Ashfield election.

    And Tories fourth?
    Possible Tory candidates I give you:

    Dawn Justice
    Phil Rostance

    The only Tory Councillors at present.
    Dawn Justice sounds more like a firing squad than a potential MP!
    Or the next installment in the Avengers franchise.
    Or a previous installment in the DCEU: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batman_v_Superman:_Dawn_of_Justice
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,733

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    On topic, since me and the dog will be on the continent again come May. I’m fixing up a proxy vote, currently just for the police & commissioner election due that month. If I do miss the GE, it would be the first time ever that I have been abroad on election day.


    I do hope your dog doesn't work for GCHQ.
    Or worse, CCHQ.
    Sadly he took the necessary cognitive ability assessments and did not achieve the required level for either organisation. He passed.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399

    A reminder I have a romantic getaway planned from the 3rd of May through to the 6th of May, don't you dare feck this up for me Rishi.

    I’m away 12th - 19th October and have similar views…
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    Love Envoi in retirement ❤️
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    On topic, since me and the dog will be on the continent again come May. I’m fixing up a proxy vote, currently just for the police & commissioner election due that month. If I do miss the GE, it would be the first time ever that I have been abroad on election day.


    I do hope your dog doesn't work for GCHQ.
    Or worse, CCHQ.
    Sadly he took the necessary cognitive ability assessments and did not achieve the required level for either organisation. He passed.
    Barking.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,422
    A
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on the sudden massive and inexplicable rise in luxury car exports to Azerbaijan (population 10m).

    🚨The strange tale of British luxury cars & Russian sanctions🚨
    🧵A thread on some v striking charts which raise some disturbing questions abt the car industry.
    Let's start at the start.
    Wealthy Russians love high-end British cars.
    Don't just take it from me. Take it from her 👇

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1767506597553799546

    Cue anyone wanting to buy a car having to give their entire financial life history and personal information to dodgy car dealers whilst Russian oligarchs find another way around whatever bureaucratic walls we put up.
    Yes, I agree this ought to be one to turn a blind eye to.
    After all why should the Azerbaijanis not have their Bentleys ?
    Export the cars. Take payment. GPS brick them after they are in Russia.

    See John Deere tractors.
  • Options
    On topic, the key reason to bet against May has nothing to do with holidays.

    Many Tory MPs will be of the view that things are likely to get worse into the Autumn as the "running scared" narrative grows, and it may well be true that the best time to go for the Tory Party is now - they won't win, but may get a bit of credit for the surprise move, and limit the losses.

    But Sunak doesn't face the same calculation. For him, the difference between May and November is six extra months as PM. He'll probably lose either way, and he's never going to get to be PM again. So it makes little difference how heavy his party's defeat is. Also, whilst November would probably produce a worse result, there is an outside chance of some event intervening between now and then. It's very unlikely, and any surprise could be a bad surprise just as much as it could be a good surprise. But it's more likely to happen over the course of eight months than it is over less than two.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,690
    NYT live updates re: Robert Hur testimony

    If there was one moment so far that will make Biden and his team cringe, it may be the one served up by Representative Pramila Jayapal, when she claimed Hur had exonerated Biden. His retort — "I did not exonerate him" — will be used repeatedly by Republicans and Trump. That’s not helpful to Biden.

    SSI - Pramilla Jayapal is my congresswoman. Her basic problem: she is WAY less smart than she thinks she is.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,330
    Cicero said:

    A gentle, though rather grim reminder of Umberto Eco´s 14 points that identify fascism.

    https://www.faena.com/aleph/umberto-eco-a-practical-list-for-identifying-fascists

    Russia scores 14/14. Not Neo-, not Quasi-, but actual fascism.

    There are a few that hit a lot closer to home.

    I think we should remember this when we think about how we deal with Russia. Unless Putin is stopped, he will not stop. We need to understand this and to prepare for it.

    I've bene saying that the Russian government is fascist for some time, only to get replies elsewhere that "The Ukrainians are Nazis!!!!"

    People like @NickPalmer , who think the war is our fault and trot out the same old excuses for Russia's excesses, should perhaps contemplate where their 'thinking' leads us.
  • Options

    A reminder I have a romantic getaway planned from the 3rd of May through to the 6th of May, don't you dare feck this up for me Rishi.

    I’m away 12th - 19th October and have similar views…
    If he had any decency at all, Sunak would set up a Doodle poll, and simply organise the election on a day everyone can do.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,905

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on the sudden massive and inexplicable rise in luxury car exports to Azerbaijan (population 10m).

    🚨The strange tale of British luxury cars & Russian sanctions🚨
    🧵A thread on some v striking charts which raise some disturbing questions abt the car industry.
    Let's start at the start.
    Wealthy Russians love high-end British cars.
    Don't just take it from me. Take it from her 👇

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1767506597553799546

    Cue anyone wanting to buy a car having to give their entire financial life history and personal information to dodgy car dealers whilst Russian oligarchs find another way around whatever bureaucratic walls we put up.
    Yes, I agree this ought to be one to turn a blind eye to.
    After all why should the Azerbaijanis not have their Bentleys ?
    They are probably getting a Skoda as commission for delivering the Bentleys.
    Or being promised a reprieve from an appointment with the window cleaner.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,905

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    On topic, since me and the dog will be on the continent again come May. I’m fixing up a proxy vote, currently just for the police & commissioner election due that month. If I do miss the GE, it would be the first time ever that I have been abroad on election day.


    I do hope your dog doesn't work for GCHQ.
    Or worse, CCHQ.
    Sadly he took the necessary cognitive ability assessments and did not achieve the required level for either organisation. He passed.
    Barking.
    But unlike the Tories, a loyal mutt.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,520

    On topic, the key reason to bet against May has nothing to do with holidays.

    Many Tory MPs will be of the view that things are likely to get worse into the Autumn as the "running scared" narrative grows, and it may well be true that the best time to go for the Tory Party is now - they won't win, but may get a bit of credit for the surprise move, and limit the losses.

    But Sunak doesn't face the same calculation. For him, the difference between May and November is six extra months as PM. He'll probably lose either way, and he's never going to get to be PM again. So it makes little difference how heavy his party's defeat is. Also, whilst November would probably produce a worse result, there is an outside chance of some event intervening between now and then. It's very unlikely, and any surprise could be a bad surprise just as much as it could be a good surprise. But it's more likely to happen over the course of eight months than it is over less than two.

    This is quite right. Although you have to factor into the equation the risk of Tory MPs dumping Sunak before the autumn, if it's not a May election.

    Sunak will also be aware that if he leads his party to a crushing defeat in May, no-one will ever be able to prove that he still took the 'right' decision, in limiting losses as there's no counterfactual poll; just a massive set of real-world losses. By contrast, if he can pick things up a bit over the summer, that'll be provable against genuine opinion polls (and election results) in May.
  • Options

    On topic, the election won't be September: that'd have to be called in August - although the campaign itself might well start in September.

    I still think 14 Nov, despite the risk of the US election throwing the final week or so into a bit of turmoil. That said, I can see the appeal to Sunak of calling it in early Sept, so that MPs and other parties get pretty much zero chance to use Westminster to set an agenda, and so go for something like Oct 17.

    Oct 17 or Oct 24 make more sense than November simply because it's before the clocks change.

    People are more miserable in Nov than Oct after the clock change, always are, and haven't yet got Christmas cheer. Only January is more miserable than November.

    So why as an incumbent government would you want to call the polls for when people are more miserable as a whole? It makes no sense at all.

    If you're gaining extra months that's one thing, but for only a few week difference it seems counterproductive.
    One possible explanation is differential turnout. The Tories might trust that their postal-voting oldies will turn out regardless of the weather or darkness, but younger, home-working, anti-Tory voters might be more likely to be dissuaded by a cold, dark, wet November day.
    If you're going by that logic then why rule out a 2025 election?

    Least turnout likely, and cuts the availability of people to be campaigning as they'll have Christmas instead.

    And it happens automatically by default if no choice is made.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,422

    A reminder I have a romantic getaway planned from the 3rd of May through to the 6th of May, don't you dare feck this up for me Rishi.

    I’m away 12th - 19th October and have similar views…
    If he had any decency at all, Sunak would set up a Doodle poll, and simply organise the election on a day everyone can do.
    1) make elections last 2 weeks
    2) repeal the laws against parties bribing the electorate with free alcohol.

    #MakeBritishElectionsGreatAgain
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,905

    NYT live updates re: Robert Hur testimony

    If there was one moment so far that will make Biden and his team cringe, it may be the one served up by Representative Pramila Jayapal, when she claimed Hur had exonerated Biden. His retort — "I did not exonerate him" — will be used repeatedly by Republicans and Trump. That’s not helpful to Biden.

    SSI - Pramilla Jayapal is my congresswoman. Her basic problem: she is WAY less smart than she thinks she is.

    This is a more entertaining clip.

    Swalwell put together his own supercut of Trump shorting out time after time after time -- and it's perhaps even more brutal than Nadler's
    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1767583353564209426

    Also, what a bunch of loser hypocrites.
    Republicans are now mad that the DOJ released the transcript of Hur's interview with Biden. So much for transparency!
    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1767585076072628559

    They were entirely happy for Hur to release a five hundred page semi-hit piece on Biden, and are now upset that it can be fact checked against the actual transcripts of the interviews with Biden.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,330

    A

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on the sudden massive and inexplicable rise in luxury car exports to Azerbaijan (population 10m).

    🚨The strange tale of British luxury cars & Russian sanctions🚨
    🧵A thread on some v striking charts which raise some disturbing questions abt the car industry.
    Let's start at the start.
    Wealthy Russians love high-end British cars.
    Don't just take it from me. Take it from her 👇

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1767506597553799546

    Cue anyone wanting to buy a car having to give their entire financial life history and personal information to dodgy car dealers whilst Russian oligarchs find another way around whatever bureaucratic walls we put up.
    Yes, I agree this ought to be one to turn a blind eye to.
    After all why should the Azerbaijanis not have their Bentleys ?
    Export the cars. Take payment. GPS brick them after they are in Russia.

    See John Deere tractors.
    That was a great story; but has there been any follow-up? Are the tractors still bricked, or have the Russians found a way around it? My guess is sadly the latter.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,733

    On topic, the key reason to bet against May has nothing to do with holidays.

    Many Tory MPs will be of the view that things are likely to get worse into the Autumn as the "running scared" narrative grows, and it may well be true that the best time to go for the Tory Party is now - they won't win, but may get a bit of credit for the surprise move, and limit the losses.

    But Sunak doesn't face the same calculation. For him, the difference between May and November is six extra months as PM. He'll probably lose either way, and he's never going to get to be PM again. So it makes little difference how heavy his party's defeat is. Also, whilst November would probably produce a worse result, there is an outside chance of some event intervening between now and then. It's very unlikely, and any surprise could be a bad surprise just as much as it could be a good surprise. But it's more likely to happen over the course of eight months than it is over less than two.

    This is quite right. Although you have to factor into the equation the risk of Tory MPs dumping Sunak before the autumn, if it's not a May election.

    Sunak will also be aware that if he leads his party to a crushing defeat in May, no-one will ever be able to prove that he still took the 'right' decision, in limiting losses as there's no counterfactual poll; just a massive set of real-world losses. By contrast, if he can pick things up a bit over the summer, that'll be provable against genuine opinion polls (and election results) in May.
    You might just as easily say that things could get worse over the summer and then he will look foolish for bottling May.

    For what it’s worth, I think he’ll bottle it.

    The guy is weak.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    On topic, since me and the dog will be on the continent again come May. I’m fixing up a proxy vote, currently just for the police & commissioner election due that month. If I do miss the GE, it would be the first time ever that I have been abroad on election day.


    I do hope your dog doesn't work for GCHQ.
    Or worse, CCHQ.
    Sadly he took the necessary cognitive ability assessments and did not achieve the required level for either organisation. He passed.
    Barking.
    But unlike the Tories, a loyal mutt.
    Dogs tend to see something harmless flapping in the wind, and start barking at it as though it is the embodiment of evil, whereas the Tory Party…

    Okay, I see your point.
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