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Holidays can be cancelled of course – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited March 24 in General
Holidays can be cancelled of course – politicalbetting.com

The argument for a May election is presumably that things will get even worse for the Tories over the summer?Calling an election amid funding scandals, public service failure and a weak economy, with a divided party and no plan for the future seems otherwise sub-optimal.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,899
    edited March 12
    3rd.

    Like Leeanderthal's place at the next Ashfield election.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,146
    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    A reminder I have a romantic getaway planned from the 3rd of May through to the 6th of May, don't you dare feck this up for me Rishi.

    What could be more romantic than following a general election and posting the occasional thread header?
    'Were you up for X?

    'You bet!'
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,899
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    A reminder I have a romantic getaway planned from the 3rd of May through to the 6th of May, don't you dare feck this up for me Rishi.

    Sounds like it needs to be to the Cheshire Cheese in Castleton.

    Just in case.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,909
    MattW said:

    3rd.

    Like Leeanderthal's place at the next Ashfield election.

    And Tories fourth?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    FFS

    The newly expanded Champions League will have a tennis-style seeding system instead of a draw for the knock-out stages, and now involve a hybrid digital-manual draw for the “Swiss system” group stage.

    An idea to even have a “US draft” style pick for knock-outs - where clubs would get to pick potential knock-out opponents depending on their table finish - was even discussed by Uefa, as a number of possibilities were raised.

    Although the Champions League draw has become one of the showpiece events of the competition, Uefa modelling showed that a straight draw for who plays who in the opening stage would take up to four hours. It will instead by a hybrid system, with some of it digital and the rest manual, overseen by firms such as Ernst and Young. The exact process is still being discussed.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/champions-league-uefa-draw-draft-2024-b2511342.html
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Theuniondivvie said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    A reminder I have a romantic getaway planned from the 3rd of May through to the 6th of May, don't you dare feck this up for me Rishi.

    What could be more romantic than following a general election and posting the occasional thread header?
    'Were you up for X?

    'You bet!'
    Would you like to see my swing-o-meter?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,177
    Did the Russians base this on a Boeing design ?

    Footage of one of the D-30 turbofan engines falling off the plane.
    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1767563826189185278
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805
    Come on Rishi, announce tomorrow morning that the GE is 2nd May - it'll knock the wind out of Starmer's PMQ attack at midday.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,177
    Special counsel Robert Hur testifies before House on Biden documents report: Watch live
    https://thehill.com/video-clips/4525998-special-counsel-robert-hur-testifies-biden-docs-report-watch-live/

    Hur tells his first lie: Biden never failed to return documents.

    The entire point about this investigation is that he RETURNED DOCUMENTS when he found them.
    https://twitter.com/emptywheel/status/1767561451974053965
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,500
    On the holiday thing, both 1997 and 2015 had Easter during the campaign period...

    1997: Dissolution - 17th March, Easter - 30th March
    2015: Dissolution - 30th March, Easter - 5th April
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,899
    LostPassword said:

    MattW said:

    3rd.

    Like Leeanderthal's place at the next Ashfield election.

    And Tories fourth?
    Possible Tory candidates I give you:

    Dawn Justice
    Phil Rostance

    The only Tory Councillors at present.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,146
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    A reminder I have a romantic getaway planned from the 3rd of May through to the 6th of May, don't you dare feck this up for me Rishi.

    What could be more romantic than following a general election and posting the occasional thread header?
    'Were you up for X?

    'You bet!'
    Would you like to see my swing-o-meter?
    He's lost his deposit (that's enough-ed)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    A reminder I have a romantic getaway planned from the 3rd of May through to the 6th of May, don't you dare feck this up for me Rishi.

    What could be more romantic than following a general election and posting the occasional thread header?
    Does my bar chart look big in this?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,832
    MattW said:

    LostPassword said:

    MattW said:

    3rd.

    Like Leeanderthal's place at the next Ashfield election.

    And Tories fourth?
    Possible Tory candidates I give you:

    Dawn Justice
    Phil Rostance

    The only Tory Councillors at present.
    Dawn Justice sounds more like a firing squad than a potential MP!
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Benpointer said:

    Come on Rishi, announce tomorrow morning that the GE is 2nd May - it'll knock the wind out of Starmer's PMQ attack at midday.

    The ultimate pyrrhic victory!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,109
    Nigelb said:

    Did the Russians base this on a Boeing design ?

    Footage of one of the D-30 turbofan engines falling off the plane.
    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1767563826189185278

    To be fair, some aircraft with under wing pylon mounted engines are designed so that if the (say) the vibrational forces on the engine exceed certain limits, it will shear off.

    So if an engine its fan smashed up (for example), the vibration breaks the bolts holding the engine on, before the wing gets damaged.

    IIRC, Boeing actually changed away from this philosophy in 1993, after El Al Flight 1862
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    A reminder I have a romantic getaway planned from the 3rd of May through to the 6th of May, don't you dare feck this up for me Rishi.

    Surely you’d be up for a new government? 😘
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,909
    MattW said:

    LostPassword said:

    MattW said:

    3rd.

    Like Leeanderthal's place at the next Ashfield election.

    And Tories fourth?
    Possible Tory candidates I give you:

    Dawn Justice
    Phil Rostance

    The only Tory Councillors at present.
    Dawn Justice is a great name for an early morning declaration.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,177
    I didn't fully appreciate that the dynamic of this hearing is that everybody is mad at Hur. Dems are mad at him for his obvious hit job on Biden, and Rs are mad at him because his hit job didn't go far enough and result in a prosecution.
    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1767565011059105846
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,220
    AlsoLei said:

    On the holiday thing, both 1997 and 2015 had Easter during the campaign period...

    1997: Dissolution - 17th March, Easter - 30th March
    2015: Dissolution - 30th March, Easter - 5th April

    Why was the dissolution in 1997 so much earlier? The election was six days earlier, but that doesn't explain why the dissolution was 13 days earlier.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645
    Chianti Classico. Woo. Warrior of a horse.

    But when stumbled over the last, I wee’d myself a little bit.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704
    AlsoLei said:

    On the holiday thing, both 1997 and 2015 had Easter during the campaign period...

    1997: Dissolution - 17th March, Easter - 30th March
    2015: Dissolution - 30th March, Easter - 5th April

    In my memory the 1997 campaign seemed to go on for ages.
    Things did only get better, though!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805
    tlg86 said:

    AlsoLei said:

    On the holiday thing, both 1997 and 2015 had Easter during the campaign period...

    1997: Dissolution - 17th March, Easter - 30th March
    2015: Dissolution - 30th March, Easter - 5th April

    Why was the dissolution in 1997 so much earlier? The election was six days earlier, but that doesn't explain why the dissolution was 13 days earlier.
    Major wanted a long campaign - he thought that would help him, and maybe it did. Just not enough.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,909
    tlg86 said:

    AlsoLei said:

    On the holiday thing, both 1997 and 2015 had Easter during the campaign period...

    1997: Dissolution - 17th March, Easter - 30th March
    2015: Dissolution - 30th March, Easter - 5th April

    Why was the dissolution in 1997 so much earlier? The election was six days earlier, but that doesn't explain why the dissolution was 13 days earlier.
    John Major wanted a long campaign to repeat his success of 1992.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033
    tlg86 said:

    AlsoLei said:

    On the holiday thing, both 1997 and 2015 had Easter during the campaign period...

    1997: Dissolution - 17th March, Easter - 30th March
    2015: Dissolution - 30th March, Easter - 5th April

    Why was the dissolution in 1997 so much earlier? The election was six days earlier, but that doesn't explain why the dissolution was 13 days earlier.
    Was the time between dissolution fixed by the Fixed Term Parliaments Act in 2015, but not fixed before?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,177
    Selebian said:

    MattW said:

    LostPassword said:

    MattW said:

    3rd.

    Like Leeanderthal's place at the next Ashfield election.

    And Tories fourth?
    Possible Tory candidates I give you:

    Dawn Justice
    Phil Rostance

    The only Tory Councillors at present.
    Dawn Justice sounds more like a firing squad than a potential MP!
    Or the next installment in the Avengers franchise.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805
    MoonRabbit said:

    Chianti Classico. Woo. Warrior of a horse.

    But when stumbled over the last, I wee’d myself a little bit.

    Was it a vintage performance? (The horse I mean.)
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,500
    edited March 12
    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    AlsoLei said:

    On the holiday thing, both 1997 and 2015 had Easter during the campaign period...

    1997: Dissolution - 17th March, Easter - 30th March
    2015: Dissolution - 30th March, Easter - 5th April

    Why was the dissolution in 1997 so much earlier? The election was six days earlier, but that doesn't explain why the dissolution was 13 days earlier.
    Was the time between dissolution fixed by the Fixed Term Parliaments Act in 2015, but not fixed before?
    There's an explanation at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_United_Kingdom_general_election#Timing - looks like the result of an interaction between the Parliament Act and the Representation of the People Act. Seems almost as complex as the method for calculating Easter!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,177
    Benpointer said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Chianti Classico. Woo. Warrior of a horse.

    But when stumbled over the last, I wee’d myself a little bit.

    Was it a vintage performance? (The horse I mean.)
    Ahead by a fine nose.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,586
    Holidays can be cancelled but I don’t expect any insurance to pay out.

    Having
    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    AlsoLei said:

    On the holiday thing, both 1997 and 2015 had Easter during the campaign period...

    1997: Dissolution - 17th March, Easter - 30th March
    2015: Dissolution - 30th March, Easter - 5th April

    Why was the dissolution in 1997 so much earlier? The election was six days earlier, but that doesn't explain why the dissolution was 13 days earlier.
    Was the time between dissolution fixed by the Fixed Term Parliaments Act in 2015, but not fixed before?
    Was a minimum of 17 working days before (from memory)
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645
    Benpointer said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Chianti Classico. Woo. Warrior of a horse.

    But when stumbled over the last, I wee’d myself a little bit.

    Was it a vintage performance? (The horse I mean.)
    I should be drinking red wine.

    But yeah, it ran the perfect race. Apart from landing after the last.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805
    Nigelb said:

    Benpointer said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Chianti Classico. Woo. Warrior of a horse.

    But when stumbled over the last, I wee’d myself a little bit.

    Was it a vintage performance? (The horse I mean.)
    Ahead by a fine nose.
    That would have been a Barolo laughs.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704
    LostPassword said:

    tlg86 said:

    AlsoLei said:

    On the holiday thing, both 1997 and 2015 had Easter during the campaign period...

    1997: Dissolution - 17th March, Easter - 30th March
    2015: Dissolution - 30th March, Easter - 5th April

    Why was the dissolution in 1997 so much earlier? The election was six days earlier, but that doesn't explain why the dissolution was 13 days earlier.
    John Major wanted a long campaign to repeat his success of 1992.
    The long campaign cost the Conservatives Castle Point, though. In the last week or so the Conservative candidate managed to seriously upset the Canvey Island Conservative Womens Association, who promptly downed tools. He then doubled down by asking electors in the mainland, Benfleet, area if they wanted to be represented by ‘a woman from Canvey’. If he hadn’t done those two things, he’d probably have held on!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645
    edited March 12
    State Man should be strong for them. But in my notebook I put down Iberico Lord as Festival winner, but probably without knowing which race would be in. Interesting to see how Iberico Lord goes.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    On topic, the election won't be September: that'd have to be called in August - although the campaign itself might well start in September.

    I still think 14 Nov, despite the risk of the US election throwing the final week or so into a bit of turmoil. That said, I can see the appeal to Sunak of calling it in early Sept, so that MPs and other parties get pretty much zero chance to use Westminster to set an agenda, and so go for something like Oct 17.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,177
    Interesting thread on the sudden massive and inexplicable rise in luxury car exports to Azerbaijan (population 10m).

    🚨The strange tale of British luxury cars & Russian sanctions🚨
    🧵A thread on some v striking charts which raise some disturbing questions abt the car industry.
    Let's start at the start.
    Wealthy Russians love high-end British cars.
    Don't just take it from me. Take it from her 👇
    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1767506597553799546
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    eek said:

    Holidays can be cancelled but I don’t expect any insurance to pay out.

    Having

    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    AlsoLei said:

    On the holiday thing, both 1997 and 2015 had Easter during the campaign period...

    1997: Dissolution - 17th March, Easter - 30th March
    2015: Dissolution - 30th March, Easter - 5th April

    Why was the dissolution in 1997 so much earlier? The election was six days earlier, but that doesn't explain why the dissolution was 13 days earlier.
    Was the time between dissolution fixed by the Fixed Term Parliaments Act in 2015, but not fixed before?
    Was a minimum of 17 working days before (from memory)
    I think it'd already been increased to 25 working days under Labour, possibly when the more relaxed rules on postal votes came in?

    But practice earlier was to prorogue parliament some time before the formal dissolution, which I'm sure will have been what happened in 1997. I suspect the 17 March date referred to was actually a prorogation.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,145
    If the reason not to hold a May election is that the Tories will get shafted surely it will be January election, as that argument will hold for any of June, July, August, September, October, November and December elections too.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,214
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on the sudden massive and inexplicable rise in luxury car exports to Azerbaijan (population 10m).

    🚨The strange tale of British luxury cars & Russian sanctions🚨
    🧵A thread on some v striking charts which raise some disturbing questions abt the car industry.
    Let's start at the start.
    Wealthy Russians love high-end British cars.
    Don't just take it from me. Take it from her 👇
    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1767506597553799546

    If we’re going to be exporting things that end up in Russia I suppose we might as well concentrate on over-priced status symbols with no military value or dual use. Helpful way of retaining a bit of leverage while draining the oligarch coffers (albeit the latter only scratches the surface).
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,593
    noneoftheabove said:

    If the reason not to hold a May election is that the Tories will get shafted surely it will be January election, as that argument will hold for any of June, July, August, September, October, November and December elections too.

    I refer you to the paradox of the "unexpected hanging".
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unexpected_hanging_paradox
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,909
    david_herdson said:

    On topic, the election won't be September: that'd have to be called in August - although the campaign itself might well start in September.

    I still think 14 Nov, despite the risk of the US election throwing the final week or so into a bit of turmoil. That said, I can see the appeal to Sunak of calling it in early Sept, so that MPs and other parties get pretty much zero chance to use Westminster to set an agenda, and so go for something like Oct 17.

    Would it not be financially ruinous to have to cancel party conference?
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    eek said:

    Holidays can be cancelled but I don’t expect any insurance to pay out.

    Having

    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    AlsoLei said:

    On the holiday thing, both 1997 and 2015 had Easter during the campaign period...

    1997: Dissolution - 17th March, Easter - 30th March
    2015: Dissolution - 30th March, Easter - 5th April

    Why was the dissolution in 1997 so much earlier? The election was six days earlier, but that doesn't explain why the dissolution was 13 days earlier.
    Was the time between dissolution fixed by the Fixed Term Parliaments Act in 2015, but not fixed before?
    Was a minimum of 17 working days before (from memory)
    IIRC the pre-FTPA system just laid down minimum timescales for the various legal stages of an election - the main ones being the number of days allowed between publication of the Notice of Election in each constituency and the closing date for nominations and the minimum number of days between the close of nominations and polling day. Used to be pretty tight - in Feb 1974 the whole process from announcement to polling day took just three weeks.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Sunak needs to call an election for 2 May.

    Be the bigger man.

    Don't let events and the plotters decide his future.

    Go.

    And go now.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704
    anothernick said:

    eek said:

    Holidays can be cancelled but I don’t expect any insurance to pay out.

    Having

    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    AlsoLei said:

    On the holiday thing, both 1997 and 2015 had Easter during the campaign period...

    1997: Dissolution - 17th March, Easter - 30th March
    2015: Dissolution - 30th March, Easter - 5th April

    Why was the dissolution in 1997 so much earlier? The election was six days earlier, but that doesn't explain why the dissolution was 13 days earlier.
    Was the time between dissolution fixed by the Fixed Term Parliaments Act in 2015, but not fixed before?
    Was a minimum of 17 working days before (from memory)
    IIRC the pre-FTPA system just laid down minimum timescales for the various legal stages of an election - the main ones being the number of days allowed between publication of the Notice of Election in each constituency and the closing date for nominations and the minimum number of days between the close of nominations and polling day. Used to be pretty tight - in Feb 1974 the whole process from announcement to polling day took just three weeks.
    Absolute panic stations in getting a campaign together for SE Essex Liberals, as the local party had more or less collapsed after the disaster of 1970.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    LostPassword said:

    david_herdson said:

    On topic, the election won't be September: that'd have to be called in August - although the campaign itself might well start in September.

    I still think 14 Nov, despite the risk of the US election throwing the final week or so into a bit of turmoil. That said, I can see the appeal to Sunak of calling it in early Sept, so that MPs and other parties get pretty much zero chance to use Westminster to set an agenda, and so go for something like Oct 17.

    Would it not be financially ruinous to have to cancel party conference?
    It would probably be worse for Labour. I can't imagine many corporates are queuing up to book stand space, and the number of attendees at Tory conference these days isn't what it was.

    However, that - along with the opportunities that conference brings to set the agenda - is why I've thought for over a year that Sunak will use his speech at conference to launch the election: which points to 14 Nov as polling day.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,909
    noneoftheabove said:

    If the reason not to hold a May election is that the Tories will get shafted surely it will be January election, as that argument will hold for any of June, July, August, September, October, November and December elections too.

    The cost - in terms of lost time in office - of an early election decreases as we approach January, so that it might more easily be outweighed by other factors - avoiding a Christmas campaign, not appearing completely desperate, etc.

    Consequently I expect a December 12th election -exactly five years since the previous election - but it would have to be announced in the closing days of the US Presidential election campaign.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    What's the latest Sunak can get the lectern out for a May election ?
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    LostPassword said:

    david_herdson said:

    On topic, the election won't be September: that'd have to be called in August - although the campaign itself might well start in September.

    I still think 14 Nov, despite the risk of the US election throwing the final week or so into a bit of turmoil. That said, I can see the appeal to Sunak of calling it in early Sept, so that MPs and other parties get pretty much zero chance to use Westminster to set an agenda, and so go for something like Oct 17.

    Would it not be financially ruinous to have to cancel party conference?
    Not really - the parties are committed to Conference costs anyway whether or not there is an election. It will be budgeted for. No doubt there will be cancellation clauses in the venue hire agreements, though I guess it would already be too late for them to get much of a refund.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    OldKingCole said:

    LostPassword said:

    tlg86 said:

    AlsoLei said:

    On the holiday thing, both 1997 and 2015 had Easter during the campaign period...

    1997: Dissolution - 17th March, Easter - 30th March
    2015: Dissolution - 30th March, Easter - 5th April

    Why was the dissolution in 1997 so much earlier? The election was six days earlier, but that doesn't explain why the dissolution was 13 days earlier.
    John Major wanted a long campaign to repeat his success of 1992.
    The long campaign cost the Conservatives Castle Point, though. In the last week or so the Conservative candidate managed to seriously upset the Canvey Island Conservative Womens Association, who promptly downed tools. He then doubled down by asking electors in the mainland, Benfleet, area if they wanted to be represented by ‘a woman from Canvey’. If he hadn’t done those two things, he’d probably have held on!
    This depends on whether the brain fade was due to it being the 7th(ish) week of the campaign or the last week of the campaign.

  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,593
    david_herdson said:

    LostPassword said:

    david_herdson said:

    On topic, the election won't be September: that'd have to be called in August - although the campaign itself might well start in September.

    I still think 14 Nov, despite the risk of the US election throwing the final week or so into a bit of turmoil. That said, I can see the appeal to Sunak of calling it in early Sept, so that MPs and other parties get pretty much zero chance to use Westminster to set an agenda, and so go for something like Oct 17.

    Would it not be financially ruinous to have to cancel party conference?
    It would probably be worse for Labour. I can't imagine many corporates are queuing up to book stand space, and the number of attendees at Tory conference these days isn't what it was.

    However, that - along with the opportunities that conference brings to set the agenda - is why I've thought for over a year that Sunak will use his speech at conference to launch the election: which points to 14 Nov as polling day.
    Which would be fine, unless some-one defects to Reform from the conference stage.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,145
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on the sudden massive and inexplicable rise in luxury car exports to Azerbaijan (population 10m).

    🚨The strange tale of British luxury cars & Russian sanctions🚨
    🧵A thread on some v striking charts which raise some disturbing questions abt the car industry.
    Let's start at the start.
    Wealthy Russians love high-end British cars.
    Don't just take it from me. Take it from her 👇
    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1767506597553799546

    Cue anyone wanting to buy a car having to give their entire financial life history and personal information to dodgy car dealers whilst Russian oligarchs find another way around whatever bureaucratic walls we put up.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,568
    Theuniondivvie said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    A reminder I have a romantic getaway planned from the 3rd of May through to the 6th of May, don't you dare feck this up for me Rishi.

    What could be more romantic than following a general election and posting the occasional thread header?
    'Were you up for X?

    'You bet!'
    I once had a one night stand during a Gazette Press Trip to Rome

    We were staying at the Hotel Hassler, on top of the Spanish Steps

    It was also the night Clinton won his election, and both of us were into politics (two journalists), so we kept CNN on the TV as we went at it, which provided a weird punctuation to events

    "And Clinton's taken Virginia!"

    Slap

    "We're hearing good things about Carolina"

    Moan

    Etc


    So I see no reason why this election should not ADD to @TheScreamingEagles' romantic getaway
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645
    edited March 12
    Lollops along Stateman, like it’s shy.

    That would have been tighter if a handicap? Maybe not.

    Would Lossie have beaten Stateman in this one?

    Let’s see what Lossie can do in her challenge.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,145
    david_herdson said:

    LostPassword said:

    david_herdson said:

    On topic, the election won't be September: that'd have to be called in August - although the campaign itself might well start in September.

    I still think 14 Nov, despite the risk of the US election throwing the final week or so into a bit of turmoil. That said, I can see the appeal to Sunak of calling it in early Sept, so that MPs and other parties get pretty much zero chance to use Westminster to set an agenda, and so go for something like Oct 17.

    Would it not be financially ruinous to have to cancel party conference?
    It would probably be worse for Labour. I can't imagine many corporates are queuing up to book stand space, and the number of attendees at Tory conference these days isn't what it was.

    However, that - along with the opportunities that conference brings to set the agenda - is why I've thought for over a year that Sunak will use his speech at conference to launch the election: which points to 14 Nov as polling day.
    Farage was the most popular person at last years Conservative conference. It would be even more so this year. If this is their plan back the LDs second biggest party.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    "My expectation has been we will get an election sometime between September and December of this year. Nothing has changed.”

    Agree @TSE

    The media would love it but whilst there’s any chance at all of the tories improving their chances they will hold off. Not until January, which would be suicidal, but between September and December.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,568
    No_Offence_Alan said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    If the reason not to hold a May election is that the Tories will get shafted surely it will be January election, as that argument will hold for any of June, July, August, September, October, November and December elections too.

    I refer you to the paradox of the "unexpected hanging".
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unexpected_hanging_paradox
    That's brilliant. New to me. Ta
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,145
    On topic, since me and the dog will be on the continent again come May. I’m fixing up a proxy vote, currently just for the police & commissioner election due that month. If I do miss the GE, it would be the first time ever that I have been abroad on election day.


  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,909
    anothernick said:

    LostPassword said:

    david_herdson said:

    On topic, the election won't be September: that'd have to be called in August - although the campaign itself might well start in September.

    I still think 14 Nov, despite the risk of the US election throwing the final week or so into a bit of turmoil. That said, I can see the appeal to Sunak of calling it in early Sept, so that MPs and other parties get pretty much zero chance to use Westminster to set an agenda, and so go for something like Oct 17.

    Would it not be financially ruinous to have to cancel party conference?
    Not really - the parties are committed to Conference costs anyway whether or not there is an election. It will be budgeted for. No doubt there will be cancellation clauses in the venue hire agreements, though I guess it would already be too late for them to get much of a refund.
    They'd have to reimburse conference attendees, though.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704
    eristdoof said:

    OldKingCole said:

    LostPassword said:

    tlg86 said:

    AlsoLei said:

    On the holiday thing, both 1997 and 2015 had Easter during the campaign period...

    1997: Dissolution - 17th March, Easter - 30th March
    2015: Dissolution - 30th March, Easter - 5th April

    Why was the dissolution in 1997 so much earlier? The election was six days earlier, but that doesn't explain why the dissolution was 13 days earlier.
    John Major wanted a long campaign to repeat his success of 1992.
    The long campaign cost the Conservatives Castle Point, though. In the last week or so the Conservative candidate managed to seriously upset the Canvey Island Conservative Womens Association, who promptly downed tools. He then doubled down by asking electors in the mainland, Benfleet, area if they wanted to be represented by ‘a woman from Canvey’. If he hadn’t done those two things, he’d probably have held on!
    This depends on whether the brain fade was due to it being the 7th(ish) week of the campaign or the last week of the campaign.

    IIRC the rumours of a rift started about 6-7 days before the election. I wasn’t involved in any of the campaigns so it might have earlier. The offending leaflet was an ‘eve of poll’ job, at least where I lived.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 22,366
    david_herdson said:

    On topic, the election won't be September: that'd have to be called in August - although the campaign itself might well start in September.

    I still think 14 Nov, despite the risk of the US election throwing the final week or so into a bit of turmoil. That said, I can see the appeal to Sunak of calling it in early Sept, so that MPs and other parties get pretty much zero chance to use Westminster to set an agenda, and so go for something like Oct 17.

    Oct 17 or Oct 24 make more sense than November simply because it's before the clocks change.

    People are more miserable in Nov than Oct after the clock change, always are, and haven't yet got Christmas cheer. Only January is more miserable than November.

    So why as an incumbent government would you want to call the polls for when people are more miserable as a whole? It makes no sense at all.

    If you're gaining extra months that's one thing, but for only a few week difference it seems counterproductive.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,821
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on the sudden massive and inexplicable rise in luxury car exports to Azerbaijan (population 10m).

    🚨The strange tale of British luxury cars & Russian sanctions🚨
    🧵A thread on some v striking charts which raise some disturbing questions abt the car industry.
    Let's start at the start.
    Wealthy Russians love high-end British cars.
    Don't just take it from me. Take it from her 👇
    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1767506597553799546

    Good. The amount of idiots in the UK celebrating damage to the balance of payments (whilst clamouring for more money to be spent on public services) is one of the chief grotesqueries of 21st century Britain.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,909
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    david_herdson said:

    On topic, the election won't be September: that'd have to be called in August - although the campaign itself might well start in September.

    I still think 14 Nov, despite the risk of the US election throwing the final week or so into a bit of turmoil. That said, I can see the appeal to Sunak of calling it in early Sept, so that MPs and other parties get pretty much zero chance to use Westminster to set an agenda, and so go for something like Oct 17.

    Oct 17 or Oct 24 make more sense than November simply because it's before the clocks change.

    People are more miserable in Nov than Oct after the clock change, always are, and haven't yet got Christmas cheer. Only January is more miserable than November.

    So why as an incumbent government would you want to call the polls for when people are more miserable as a whole? It makes no sense at all.

    If you're gaining extra months that's one thing, but for only a few week difference it seems counterproductive.
    One possible explanation is differential turnout. The Tories might trust that their postal-voting oldies will turn out regardless of the weather or darkness, but younger, home-working, anti-Tory voters might be more likely to be dissuaded by a cold, dark, wet November day.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    A reminder I have a romantic getaway planned from the 3rd of May through to the 6th of May, don't you dare feck this up for me Rishi.

    That's what you get for gleefully publishing all those short jokes, eh?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,177
    noneoftheabove said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on the sudden massive and inexplicable rise in luxury car exports to Azerbaijan (population 10m).

    🚨The strange tale of British luxury cars & Russian sanctions🚨
    🧵A thread on some v striking charts which raise some disturbing questions abt the car industry.
    Let's start at the start.
    Wealthy Russians love high-end British cars.
    Don't just take it from me. Take it from her 👇
    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1767506597553799546

    Cue anyone wanting to buy a car having to give their entire financial life history and personal information to dodgy car dealers whilst Russian oligarchs find another way around whatever bureaucratic walls we put up.
    Yes, I agree this ought to be one to turn a blind eye to.
    After all why should the Azerbaijanis not have their Bentleys ?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,214
    IanB2 said:

    On topic, since me and the dog will be on the continent again come May. I’m fixing up a proxy vote, currently just for the police & commissioner election due that month. If I do miss the GE, it would be the first time ever that I have been abroad on election day.


    I was abroad on 23rd June 2016, and organised to get back in time to cast my vote in person in the Brexit referendum. Shouldn't have bothered.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,177
    IanB2 said:

    On topic, since me and the dog will be on the continent again come May. I’m fixing up a proxy vote, currently just for the police & commissioner election due that month. If I do miss the GE, it would be the first time ever that I have been abroad on election day.


    I do hope your dog doesn't work for GCHQ.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645
    Is the next big thing Lossiemouth, up there with Constitution Hill and Stateman?

    Has to win these races to go there.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,458
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on the sudden massive and inexplicable rise in luxury car exports to Azerbaijan (population 10m).

    🚨The strange tale of British luxury cars & Russian sanctions🚨
    🧵A thread on some v striking charts which raise some disturbing questions abt the car industry.
    Let's start at the start.
    Wealthy Russians love high-end British cars.
    Don't just take it from me. Take it from her 👇
    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1767506597553799546

    Good. The amount of idiots in the UK celebrating damage to the balance of payments (whilst clamouring for more money to be spent on public services) is one of the chief grotesqueries of 21st century Britain.
    Yes, comrade.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,593
    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    On topic, since me and the dog will be on the continent again come May. I’m fixing up a proxy vote, currently just for the police & commissioner election due that month. If I do miss the GE, it would be the first time ever that I have been abroad on election day.


    I do hope your dog doesn't work for GCHQ.
    Or worse, CCHQ.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    LostPassword said:

    anothernick said:

    LostPassword said:

    david_herdson said:

    On topic, the election won't be September: that'd have to be called in August - although the campaign itself might well start in September.

    I still think 14 Nov, despite the risk of the US election throwing the final week or so into a bit of turmoil. That said, I can see the appeal to Sunak of calling it in early Sept, so that MPs and other parties get pretty much zero chance to use Westminster to set an agenda, and so go for something like Oct 17.

    Would it not be financially ruinous to have to cancel party conference?
    Not really - the parties are committed to Conference costs anyway whether or not there is an election. It will be budgeted for. No doubt there will be cancellation clauses in the venue hire agreements, though I guess it would already be too late for them to get much of a refund.
    They'd have to reimburse conference attendees, though.
    There would certainly be some lost revenue, depending on how much notice of cancellation was given they might save something on hotel costs and obviously there would be no travel, certainly there would be a financial loss overall. but in the context of a major party's election year budget it wouldn't be massive. And Labour would easily make it up next year (no complacency of course 😉)
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,899
    Reflecting on TSE's holiday.

    Is this a good way to prevent an election?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,586
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on the sudden massive and inexplicable rise in luxury car exports to Azerbaijan (population 10m).

    🚨The strange tale of British luxury cars & Russian sanctions🚨
    🧵A thread on some v striking charts which raise some disturbing questions abt the car industry.
    Let's start at the start.
    Wealthy Russians love high-end British cars.
    Don't just take it from me. Take it from her 👇
    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1767506597553799546

    Good. The amount of idiots in the UK celebrating damage to the balance of payments (whilst clamouring for more money to be spent on public services) is one of the chief grotesqueries of 21st century Britain.
    You seem to have missed the point - our luxury car companies have completely ignored the sanctions that were implemented.

    Given that the choices are jail the executives or fine the companies significant sums of money what should be done?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,145
    Nigelb said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on the sudden massive and inexplicable rise in luxury car exports to Azerbaijan (population 10m).

    🚨The strange tale of British luxury cars & Russian sanctions🚨
    🧵A thread on some v striking charts which raise some disturbing questions abt the car industry.
    Let's start at the start.
    Wealthy Russians love high-end British cars.
    Don't just take it from me. Take it from her 👇
    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1767506597553799546

    Cue anyone wanting to buy a car having to give their entire financial life history and personal information to dodgy car dealers whilst Russian oligarchs find another way around whatever bureaucratic walls we put up.
    Yes, I agree this ought to be one to turn a blind eye to.
    After all why should the Azerbaijanis not have their Bentleys ?
    They are probably getting a Skoda as commission for delivering the Bentleys.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,853
    Will it be 1993 in reverse this time around? Polling for the October 2025 Canadian elections:

    CPC: 46% (+12)
    LPC: 25% (-8)
    NDP: 15% (-3)
    BQ: 6% (-2)
    GPC: 4% (+2)
    PPC: 2% (-3)
    Others: 2%

    Mainstreet Research / March 9, 2024 / n=1274 / MOE 2.7% / IVR

    (% Change With 2021 Federal Election)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,821
    eek said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on the sudden massive and inexplicable rise in luxury car exports to Azerbaijan (population 10m).

    🚨The strange tale of British luxury cars & Russian sanctions🚨
    🧵A thread on some v striking charts which raise some disturbing questions abt the car industry.
    Let's start at the start.
    Wealthy Russians love high-end British cars.
    Don't just take it from me. Take it from her 👇
    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1767506597553799546

    Good. The amount of idiots in the UK celebrating damage to the balance of payments (whilst clamouring for more money to be spent on public services) is one of the chief grotesqueries of 21st century Britain.
    You seem to have missed the point - our luxury car companies have completely ignored the sanctions that were implemented.

    Given that the choices are jail the executives or fine the companies significant sums of money what should be done?
    Neither should be done. As far as I can see, the only impact of such sanctions is that more money stays inside Russia or goes to countries that don't have a sanctions regime in place, and doesn't come to the UK. That weakens us and our economy, not Russia.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,899
    MoonRabbit said:

    Is the next big thing Lossiemouth, up there with Constitution Hill and Stateman?

    Has to win these races to go there.

    Are we talking about places or horses.

    Constitution Hill reminded me that that is one of the places due to be pedestrianised.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,145
    carnforth said:

    Will it be 1993 in reverse this time around? Polling for the October 2025 Canadian elections:

    CPC: 46% (+12)
    LPC: 25% (-8)
    NDP: 15% (-3)
    BQ: 6% (-2)
    GPC: 4% (+2)
    PPC: 2% (-3)
    Others: 2%

    Mainstreet Research / March 9, 2024 / n=1274 / MOE 2.7% / IVR

    (% Change With 2021 Federal Election)

    Finally some promising news for the Tories in GE 2055.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,145
    eek said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on the sudden massive and inexplicable rise in luxury car exports to Azerbaijan (population 10m).

    🚨The strange tale of British luxury cars & Russian sanctions🚨
    🧵A thread on some v striking charts which raise some disturbing questions abt the car industry.
    Let's start at the start.
    Wealthy Russians love high-end British cars.
    Don't just take it from me. Take it from her 👇
    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1767506597553799546

    Good. The amount of idiots in the UK celebrating damage to the balance of payments (whilst clamouring for more money to be spent on public services) is one of the chief grotesqueries of 21st century Britain.
    You seem to have missed the point - our luxury car companies have completely ignored the sanctions that were implemented.

    Given that the choices are jail the executives or fine the companies significant sums of money what should be done?
    Demand a £10m donation to Tory central coffers to replace suddenly depleted funds, turn the other way, and dole out a couple of MBEs?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,390
    Nigelb said:

    Selebian said:

    MattW said:

    LostPassword said:

    MattW said:

    3rd.

    Like Leeanderthal's place at the next Ashfield election.

    And Tories fourth?
    Possible Tory candidates I give you:

    Dawn Justice
    Phil Rostance

    The only Tory Councillors at present.
    Dawn Justice sounds more like a firing squad than a potential MP!
    Or the next installment in the Avengers franchise.
    Or a previous installment in the DCEU: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batman_v_Superman:_Dawn_of_Justice
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,821
    No_Offence_Alan said:

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    On topic, since me and the dog will be on the continent again come May. I’m fixing up a proxy vote, currently just for the police & commissioner election due that month. If I do miss the GE, it would be the first time ever that I have been abroad on election day.


    I do hope your dog doesn't work for GCHQ.
    Or worse, CCHQ.
    Sadly he took the necessary cognitive ability assessments and did not achieve the required level for either organisation. He passed.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,963
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    A reminder I have a romantic getaway planned from the 3rd of May through to the 6th of May, don't you dare feck this up for me Rishi.

    I’m away 12th - 19th October and have similar views…
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645
    Love Envoi in retirement ❤️
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    No_Offence_Alan said:

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    On topic, since me and the dog will be on the continent again come May. I’m fixing up a proxy vote, currently just for the police & commissioner election due that month. If I do miss the GE, it would be the first time ever that I have been abroad on election day.


    I do hope your dog doesn't work for GCHQ.
    Or worse, CCHQ.
    Sadly he took the necessary cognitive ability assessments and did not achieve the required level for either organisation. He passed.
    Barking.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,109
    A
    Nigelb said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on the sudden massive and inexplicable rise in luxury car exports to Azerbaijan (population 10m).

    🚨The strange tale of British luxury cars & Russian sanctions🚨
    🧵A thread on some v striking charts which raise some disturbing questions abt the car industry.
    Let's start at the start.
    Wealthy Russians love high-end British cars.
    Don't just take it from me. Take it from her 👇
    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1767506597553799546

    Cue anyone wanting to buy a car having to give their entire financial life history and personal information to dodgy car dealers whilst Russian oligarchs find another way around whatever bureaucratic walls we put up.
    Yes, I agree this ought to be one to turn a blind eye to.
    After all why should the Azerbaijanis not have their Bentleys ?
    Export the cars. Take payment. GPS brick them after they are in Russia.

    See John Deere tractors.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,168
    On topic, the key reason to bet against May has nothing to do with holidays.

    Many Tory MPs will be of the view that things are likely to get worse into the Autumn as the "running scared" narrative grows, and it may well be true that the best time to go for the Tory Party is now - they won't win, but may get a bit of credit for the surprise move, and limit the losses.

    But Sunak doesn't face the same calculation. For him, the difference between May and November is six extra months as PM. He'll probably lose either way, and he's never going to get to be PM again. So it makes little difference how heavy his party's defeat is. Also, whilst November would probably produce a worse result, there is an outside chance of some event intervening between now and then. It's very unlikely, and any surprise could be a bad surprise just as much as it could be a good surprise. But it's more likely to happen over the course of eight months than it is over less than two.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    NYT live updates re: Robert Hur testimony

    If there was one moment so far that will make Biden and his team cringe, it may be the one served up by Representative Pramila Jayapal, when she claimed Hur had exonerated Biden. His retort — "I did not exonerate him" — will be used repeatedly by Republicans and Trump. That’s not helpful to Biden.

    SSI - Pramilla Jayapal is my congresswoman. Her basic problem: she is WAY less smart than she thinks she is.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,458
    Cicero said:

    A gentle, though rather grim reminder of Umberto Eco´s 14 points that identify fascism.

    https://www.faena.com/aleph/umberto-eco-a-practical-list-for-identifying-fascists

    Russia scores 14/14. Not Neo-, not Quasi-, but actual fascism.

    There are a few that hit a lot closer to home.

    I think we should remember this when we think about how we deal with Russia. Unless Putin is stopped, he will not stop. We need to understand this and to prepare for it.

    I've bene saying that the Russian government is fascist for some time, only to get replies elsewhere that "The Ukrainians are Nazis!!!!"

    People like @NickPalmer , who think the war is our fault and trot out the same old excuses for Russia's excesses, should perhaps contemplate where their 'thinking' leads us.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,168
    RochdalePioneers said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    A reminder I have a romantic getaway planned from the 3rd of May through to the 6th of May, don't you dare feck this up for me Rishi.

    I’m away 12th - 19th October and have similar views…
    If he had any decency at all, Sunak would set up a Doodle poll, and simply organise the election on a day everyone can do.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,177
    noneoftheabove said:

    Nigelb said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on the sudden massive and inexplicable rise in luxury car exports to Azerbaijan (population 10m).

    🚨The strange tale of British luxury cars & Russian sanctions🚨
    🧵A thread on some v striking charts which raise some disturbing questions abt the car industry.
    Let's start at the start.
    Wealthy Russians love high-end British cars.
    Don't just take it from me. Take it from her 👇
    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1767506597553799546

    Cue anyone wanting to buy a car having to give their entire financial life history and personal information to dodgy car dealers whilst Russian oligarchs find another way around whatever bureaucratic walls we put up.
    Yes, I agree this ought to be one to turn a blind eye to.
    After all why should the Azerbaijanis not have their Bentleys ?
    They are probably getting a Skoda as commission for delivering the Bentleys.
    Or being promised a reprieve from an appointment with the window cleaner.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,177
    MoonRabbit said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    No_Offence_Alan said:

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    On topic, since me and the dog will be on the continent again come May. I’m fixing up a proxy vote, currently just for the police & commissioner election due that month. If I do miss the GE, it would be the first time ever that I have been abroad on election day.


    I do hope your dog doesn't work for GCHQ.
    Or worse, CCHQ.
    Sadly he took the necessary cognitive ability assessments and did not achieve the required level for either organisation. He passed.
    Barking.
    But unlike the Tories, a loyal mutt.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    On topic, the key reason to bet against May has nothing to do with holidays.

    Many Tory MPs will be of the view that things are likely to get worse into the Autumn as the "running scared" narrative grows, and it may well be true that the best time to go for the Tory Party is now - they won't win, but may get a bit of credit for the surprise move, and limit the losses.

    But Sunak doesn't face the same calculation. For him, the difference between May and November is six extra months as PM. He'll probably lose either way, and he's never going to get to be PM again. So it makes little difference how heavy his party's defeat is. Also, whilst November would probably produce a worse result, there is an outside chance of some event intervening between now and then. It's very unlikely, and any surprise could be a bad surprise just as much as it could be a good surprise. But it's more likely to happen over the course of eight months than it is over less than two.

    This is quite right. Although you have to factor into the equation the risk of Tory MPs dumping Sunak before the autumn, if it's not a May election.

    Sunak will also be aware that if he leads his party to a crushing defeat in May, no-one will ever be able to prove that he still took the 'right' decision, in limiting losses as there's no counterfactual poll; just a massive set of real-world losses. By contrast, if he can pick things up a bit over the summer, that'll be provable against genuine opinion polls (and election results) in May.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 22,366
    LostPassword said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    david_herdson said:

    On topic, the election won't be September: that'd have to be called in August - although the campaign itself might well start in September.

    I still think 14 Nov, despite the risk of the US election throwing the final week or so into a bit of turmoil. That said, I can see the appeal to Sunak of calling it in early Sept, so that MPs and other parties get pretty much zero chance to use Westminster to set an agenda, and so go for something like Oct 17.

    Oct 17 or Oct 24 make more sense than November simply because it's before the clocks change.

    People are more miserable in Nov than Oct after the clock change, always are, and haven't yet got Christmas cheer. Only January is more miserable than November.

    So why as an incumbent government would you want to call the polls for when people are more miserable as a whole? It makes no sense at all.

    If you're gaining extra months that's one thing, but for only a few week difference it seems counterproductive.
    One possible explanation is differential turnout. The Tories might trust that their postal-voting oldies will turn out regardless of the weather or darkness, but younger, home-working, anti-Tory voters might be more likely to be dissuaded by a cold, dark, wet November day.
    If you're going by that logic then why rule out a 2025 election?

    Least turnout likely, and cuts the availability of people to be campaigning as they'll have Christmas instead.

    And it happens automatically by default if no choice is made.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,109
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    A reminder I have a romantic getaway planned from the 3rd of May through to the 6th of May, don't you dare feck this up for me Rishi.

    I’m away 12th - 19th October and have similar views…
    If he had any decency at all, Sunak would set up a Doodle poll, and simply organise the election on a day everyone can do.
    1) make elections last 2 weeks
    2) repeal the laws against parties bribing the electorate with free alcohol.

    #MakeBritishElectionsGreatAgain
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,177
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    NYT live updates re: Robert Hur testimony

    If there was one moment so far that will make Biden and his team cringe, it may be the one served up by Representative Pramila Jayapal, when she claimed Hur had exonerated Biden. His retort — "I did not exonerate him" — will be used repeatedly by Republicans and Trump. That’s not helpful to Biden.

    SSI - Pramilla Jayapal is my congresswoman. Her basic problem: she is WAY less smart than she thinks she is.

    This is a more entertaining clip.

    Swalwell put together his own supercut of Trump shorting out time after time after time -- and it's perhaps even more brutal than Nadler's
    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1767583353564209426

    Also, what a bunch of loser hypocrites.
    Republicans are now mad that the DOJ released the transcript of Hur's interview with Biden. So much for transparency!
    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1767585076072628559

    They were entirely happy for Hur to release a five hundred page semi-hit piece on Biden, and are now upset that it can be fact checked against the actual transcripts of the interviews with Biden.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,458
    Malmesbury said:

    A

    Nigelb said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on the sudden massive and inexplicable rise in luxury car exports to Azerbaijan (population 10m).

    🚨The strange tale of British luxury cars & Russian sanctions🚨
    🧵A thread on some v striking charts which raise some disturbing questions abt the car industry.
    Let's start at the start.
    Wealthy Russians love high-end British cars.
    Don't just take it from me. Take it from her 👇
    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1767506597553799546

    Cue anyone wanting to buy a car having to give their entire financial life history and personal information to dodgy car dealers whilst Russian oligarchs find another way around whatever bureaucratic walls we put up.
    Yes, I agree this ought to be one to turn a blind eye to.
    After all why should the Azerbaijanis not have their Bentleys ?
    Export the cars. Take payment. GPS brick them after they are in Russia.

    See John Deere tractors.
    That was a great story; but has there been any follow-up? Are the tractors still bricked, or have the Russians found a way around it? My guess is sadly the latter.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    david_herdson said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    On topic, the key reason to bet against May has nothing to do with holidays.

    Many Tory MPs will be of the view that things are likely to get worse into the Autumn as the "running scared" narrative grows, and it may well be true that the best time to go for the Tory Party is now - they won't win, but may get a bit of credit for the surprise move, and limit the losses.

    But Sunak doesn't face the same calculation. For him, the difference between May and November is six extra months as PM. He'll probably lose either way, and he's never going to get to be PM again. So it makes little difference how heavy his party's defeat is. Also, whilst November would probably produce a worse result, there is an outside chance of some event intervening between now and then. It's very unlikely, and any surprise could be a bad surprise just as much as it could be a good surprise. But it's more likely to happen over the course of eight months than it is over less than two.

    This is quite right. Although you have to factor into the equation the risk of Tory MPs dumping Sunak before the autumn, if it's not a May election.

    Sunak will also be aware that if he leads his party to a crushing defeat in May, no-one will ever be able to prove that he still took the 'right' decision, in limiting losses as there's no counterfactual poll; just a massive set of real-world losses. By contrast, if he can pick things up a bit over the summer, that'll be provable against genuine opinion polls (and election results) in May.
    You might just as easily say that things could get worse over the summer and then he will look foolish for bottling May.

    For what it’s worth, I think he’ll bottle it.

    The guy is weak.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645
    Nigelb said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    No_Offence_Alan said:

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    On topic, since me and the dog will be on the continent again come May. I’m fixing up a proxy vote, currently just for the police & commissioner election due that month. If I do miss the GE, it would be the first time ever that I have been abroad on election day.


    I do hope your dog doesn't work for GCHQ.
    Or worse, CCHQ.
    Sadly he took the necessary cognitive ability assessments and did not achieve the required level for either organisation. He passed.
    Barking.
    But unlike the Tories, a loyal mutt.
    Dogs tend to see something harmless flapping in the wind, and start barking at it as though it is the embodiment of evil, whereas the Tory Party…

    Okay, I see your point.
This discussion has been closed.