On topic, the election won't be September: that'd have to be called in August - although the campaign itself might well start in September.
I still think 14 Nov, despite the risk of the US election throwing the final week or so into a bit of turmoil. That said, I can see the appeal to Sunak of calling it in early Sept, so that MPs and other parties get pretty much zero chance to use Westminster to set an agenda, and so go for something like Oct 17.
Oct 17 or Oct 24 make more sense than November simply because it's before the clocks change.
People are more miserable in Nov than Oct after the clock change, always are, and haven't yet got Christmas cheer. Only January is more miserable than November.
So why as an incumbent government would you want to call the polls for when people are more miserable as a whole? It makes no sense at all.
If you're gaining extra months that's one thing, but for only a few week difference it seems counterproductive.
One possible explanation is differential turnout. The Tories might trust that their postal-voting oldies will turn out regardless of the weather or darkness, but younger, home-working, anti-Tory voters might be more likely to be dissuaded by a cold, dark, wet November day.
If you're going by that logic then why rule out a 2025 election?
Least turnout likely, and cuts the availability of people to be campaigning as they'll have Christmas instead.
And it happens automatically by default if no choice is made.
Lots of teachers on holiday over Christmas to campaign.
If there was one moment so far that will make Biden and his team cringe, it may be the one served up by Representative Pramila Jayapal, when she claimed Hur had exonerated Biden. His retort — "I did not exonerate him" — will be used repeatedly by Republicans and Trump. That’s not helpful to Biden.
SSI - Pramilla Jayapal is my congresswoman. Her basic problem: she is WAY less smart than she thinks she is.
On topic, the key reason to bet against May has nothing to do with holidays.
Many Tory MPs will be of the view that things are likely to get worse into the Autumn as the "running scared" narrative grows, and it may well be true that the best time to go for the Tory Party is now - they won't win, but may get a bit of credit for the surprise move, and limit the losses.
But Sunak doesn't face the same calculation. For him, the difference between May and November is six extra months as PM. He'll probably lose either way, and he's never going to get to be PM again. So it makes little difference how heavy his party's defeat is. Also, whilst November would probably produce a worse result, there is an outside chance of some event intervening between now and then. It's very unlikely, and any surprise could be a bad surprise just as much as it could be a good surprise. But it's more likely to happen over the course of eight months than it is over less than two.
Assumes he wants to be/cares about being PM for an extra six months.
Interesting thread on the sudden massive and inexplicable rise in luxury car exports to Azerbaijan (population 10m).
🚨The strange tale of British luxury cars & Russian sanctions🚨 🧵A thread on some v striking charts which raise some disturbing questions abt the car industry. Let's start at the start. Wealthy Russians love high-end British cars. Don't just take it from me. Take it from her 👇 https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1767506597553799546
Cue anyone wanting to buy a car having to give their entire financial life history and personal information to dodgy car dealers whilst Russian oligarchs find another way around whatever bureaucratic walls we put up.
Yes, I agree this ought to be one to turn a blind eye to. After all why should the Azerbaijanis not have their Bentleys ?
Export the cars. Take payment. GPS brick them after they are in Russia.
See John Deere tractors.
That was a great story; but has there been any follow-up? Are the tractors still bricked, or have the Russians found a way around it? My guess is sadly the latter.
Apparently John Deere has been fighting a long battle with tech savvy American farmers. The bricking goes deep into a number of systems.
On topic, the key reason to bet against May has nothing to do with holidays.
Many Tory MPs will be of the view that things are likely to get worse into the Autumn as the "running scared" narrative grows, and it may well be true that the best time to go for the Tory Party is now - they won't win, but may get a bit of credit for the surprise move, and limit the losses.
But Sunak doesn't face the same calculation. For him, the difference between May and November is six extra months as PM. He'll probably lose either way, and he's never going to get to be PM again. So it makes little difference how heavy his party's defeat is. Also, whilst November would probably produce a worse result, there is an outside chance of some event intervening between now and then. It's very unlikely, and any surprise could be a bad surprise just as much as it could be a good surprise. But it's more likely to happen over the course of eight months than it is over less than two.
There are a couple of other factors to consider.
Sunak still thinks that he has a chance of winning. Some of his recent moves may seem a bit erratic, but they're predicated on that belief and that attempts to find an angle that discredits Labour and make the government look better could actually matter. A similar calculation, perhaps related to the Rwanda policy, for example, might lead to an earlier election as part of a desperate gambit to create an election campaign narrative more favourable to the Tories.
A lot of Tory MPs just aren't going to care either way. Perhaps they're ready to move on into a post-Parliamentary career, or a few more months sounding out alternatives would suit them, but I'd guess there's many of them who have made their peace with defeat, in addition to those not standing for re-election. Perhaps this would overall tend towards favouring an early election, just to get it done and move on, but I don't think they're going to be that motivated to press the case for a particular date that strongly one way or another.
If there was one moment so far that will make Biden and his team cringe, it may be the one served up by Representative Pramila Jayapal, when she claimed Hur had exonerated Biden. His retort — "I did not exonerate him" — will be used repeatedly by Republicans and Trump. That’s not helpful to Biden.
SSI - Pramilla Jayapal is my congresswoman. Her basic problem: she is WAY less smart than she thinks she is.
They were entirely happy for Hur to release a five hundred page semi-hit piece on Biden, and are now upset that it can be fact checked against the actual transcripts of the interviews with Biden.
Well, it IS an election year. And every US House member is up for re-election, should they chose to seek it.
Best thing is that GOPers are really on a roll > Sen. Katie Britt (R-Terrified) and her SOTU reply flop, critiqued more severely by REPUBLICANS than Democrats. > Trump's U-turn on TikTok for profit and maybe fun > Hur report publication + bravura Biden SOTU undercutting "demented vegetable" attack line.
Re: Hur "report" toooooooo many PBers took it at face value; unwise when it's the face of a Trumpist speaking.
If there was one moment so far that will make Biden and his team cringe, it may be the one served up by Representative Pramila Jayapal, when she claimed Hur had exonerated Biden. His retort — "I did not exonerate him" — will be used repeatedly by Republicans and Trump. That’s not helpful to Biden.
SSI - Pramilla Jayapal is my congresswoman. Her basic problem: she is WAY less smart than she thinks she is.
If there was one moment so far that will make Biden and his team cringe, it may be the one served up by Representative Pramila Jayapal, when she claimed Hur had exonerated Biden. His retort — "I did not exonerate him" — will be used repeatedly by Republicans and Trump. That’s not helpful to Biden.
SSI - Pramilla Jayapal is my congresswoman. Her basic problem: she is WAY less smart than she thinks she is.
In quasi-fairness, note that yours truly has been plagued by same life-long problem. Duh!
On topic, the election won't be September: that'd have to be called in August - although the campaign itself might well start in September.
I still think 14 Nov, despite the risk of the US election throwing the final week or so into a bit of turmoil. That said, I can see the appeal to Sunak of calling it in early Sept, so that MPs and other parties get pretty much zero chance to use Westminster to set an agenda, and so go for something like Oct 17.
Oct 17 or Oct 24 make more sense than November simply because it's before the clocks change.
People are more miserable in Nov than Oct after the clock change, always are, and haven't yet got Christmas cheer. Only January is more miserable than November.
So why as an incumbent government would you want to call the polls for when people are more miserable as a whole? It makes no sense at all.
If you're gaining extra months that's one thing, but for only a few week difference it seems counterproductive.
One possible explanation is differential turnout. The Tories might trust that their postal-voting oldies will turn out regardless of the weather or darkness, but younger, home-working, anti-Tory voters might be more likely to be dissuaded by a cold, dark, wet November day.
Hmm so octogenarians who are not so steady on their feet and have dodgy tickers are more likely to turn out on cold, dark nights than parents collecting the kids from school/childcare or youngsters jogging back from their PT sessions in the local park? It's a thought...
On topic, the key reason to bet against May has nothing to do with holidays.
Many Tory MPs will be of the view that things are likely to get worse into the Autumn as the "running scared" narrative grows, and it may well be true that the best time to go for the Tory Party is now - they won't win, but may get a bit of credit for the surprise move, and limit the losses.
But Sunak doesn't face the same calculation. For him, the difference between May and November is six extra months as PM. He'll probably lose either way, and he's never going to get to be PM again. So it makes little difference how heavy his party's defeat is. Also, whilst November would probably produce a worse result, there is an outside chance of some event intervening between now and then. It's very unlikely, and any surprise could be a bad surprise just as much as it could be a good surprise. But it's more likely to happen over the course of eight months than it is over less than two.
This is quite right. Although you have to factor into the equation the risk of Tory MPs dumping Sunak before the autumn, if it's not a May election.
Sunak will also be aware that if he leads his party to a crushing defeat in May, no-one will ever be able to prove that he still took the 'right' decision, in limiting losses as there's no counterfactual poll; just a massive set of real-world losses. By contrast, if he can pick things up a bit over the summer, that'll be provable against genuine opinion polls (and election results) in May.
That’s a brilliant point David. A May election can always be “you should have waited”, but with an Autumn poll we can scientifically prove May or Autumn was the best call.
It’s the “forced choice” polling we would use in comparison, the one last week with the Tories on 31% just 11 behind.
Which is why I’m so relaxed about my analysis - if Team Rishi decides to wait till autumn, science, simple polling comparisons, can prove my analysis was correct.
Also remember in this election, largely rare and unique in you don’t have two sides going for the win, one is merely trying to avoid meltdown by targetting a much smaller group of voters with policy, to come home - so the best timing of the election is for that small group of voters and what they like. And all those gone Ref in last 18 months - what are they like 😃
On topic, the key reason to bet against May has nothing to do with holidays.
Many Tory MPs will be of the view that things are likely to get worse into the Autumn as the "running scared" narrative grows, and it may well be true that the best time to go for the Tory Party is now - they won't win, but may get a bit of credit for the surprise move, and limit the losses.
But Sunak doesn't face the same calculation. For him, the difference between May and November is six extra months as PM. He'll probably lose either way, and he's never going to get to be PM again. So it makes little difference how heavy his party's defeat is. Also, whilst November would probably produce a worse result, there is an outside chance of some event intervening between now and then. It's very unlikely, and any surprise could be a bad surprise just as much as it could be a good surprise. But it's more likely to happen over the course of eight months than it is over less than two.
There are a couple of other factors to consider.
Sunak still thinks that he has a chance of winning. Some of his recent moves may seem a bit erratic, but they're predicated on that belief and that attempts to find an angle that discredits Labour and make the government look better could actually matter. A similar calculation, perhaps related to the Rwanda policy, for example, might lead to an earlier election as part of a desperate gambit to create an election campaign narrative more favourable to the Tories.
A lot of Tory MPs just aren't going to care either way. Perhaps they're ready to move on into a post-Parliamentary career, or a few more months sounding out alternatives would suit them, but I'd guess there's many of them who have made their peace with defeat, in addition to those not standing for re-election. Perhaps this would overall tend towards favouring an early election, just to get it done and move on, but I don't think they're going to be that motivated to press the case for a particular date that strongly one way or another.
I spoke to an MP the other day who told me dozens of Tory MPs are desperate to go. Whether that affects Rishi of course is unknown.
On topic, the election won't be September: that'd have to be called in August - although the campaign itself might well start in September.
I still think 14 Nov, despite the risk of the US election throwing the final week or so into a bit of turmoil. That said, I can see the appeal to Sunak of calling it in early Sept, so that MPs and other parties get pretty much zero chance to use Westminster to set an agenda, and so go for something like Oct 17.
Oct 17 or Oct 24 make more sense than November simply because it's before the clocks change.
People are more miserable in Nov than Oct after the clock change, always are, and haven't yet got Christmas cheer. Only January is more miserable than November.
So why as an incumbent government would you want to call the polls for when people are more miserable as a whole? It makes no sense at all.
If you're gaining extra months that's one thing, but for only a few week difference it seems counterproductive.
One possible explanation is differential turnout. The Tories might trust that their postal-voting oldies will turn out regardless of the weather or darkness, but younger, home-working, anti-Tory voters might be more likely to be dissuaded by a cold, dark, wet November day.
Hmm so octogenarians who are not so steady on their feet and have dodgy tickers are more likely to turn out on cold, dark nights than parents collecting the kids from school/childcare or youngsters jogging back from their PT sessions in the local park? It's a thought...
Sorry - missed the PV point - but nevertheless, I think the Tories would be mistaken if the think differential turnout at a winter election will help them.
Without wanting to resurrect that excellent thread: weren't things like fascism and communism proposed and started by different groups, and continued by other groups? Fascism never really died out, even if there were no actively fascist governments; likewise, communism is still a philosophy (sadly!) even though there are not any 'real' communist governments out there (NK being more of a diseased socialist monarchical dictatorship).
On topic, since me and the dog will be on the continent again come May. I’m fixing up a proxy vote, currently just for the police & commissioner election due that month. If I do miss the GE, it would be the first time ever that I have been abroad on election day.
I do hope your dog doesn't work for GCHQ.
Or worse, CCHQ.
Sadly he took the necessary cognitive ability assessments and did not achieve the required level for either organisation. He passed.
Barking.
But unlike the Tories, a loyal mutt.
They're being very loyal mutts at the moment. Sunak has lead them to sub-Truss polling and a Refuk defection, and so far the men in grey suits are conspicuous by their absence.
On topic, since me and the dog will be on the continent again come May. I’m fixing up a proxy vote, currently just for the police & commissioner election due that month. If I do miss the GE, it would be the first time ever that I have been abroad on election day.
I do hope your dog doesn't work for GCHQ.
Or worse, CCHQ.
Sadly he took the necessary cognitive ability assessments and did not achieve the required level for either organisation. He passed.
On topic, the election won't be September: that'd have to be called in August - although the campaign itself might well start in September.
I still think 14 Nov, despite the risk of the US election throwing the final week or so into a bit of turmoil. That said, I can see the appeal to Sunak of calling it in early Sept, so that MPs and other parties get pretty much zero chance to use Westminster to set an agenda, and so go for something like Oct 17.
Oct 17 or Oct 24 make more sense than November simply because it's before the clocks change.
People are more miserable in Nov than Oct after the clock change, always are, and haven't yet got Christmas cheer. Only January is more miserable than November.
So why as an incumbent government would you want to call the polls for when people are more miserable as a whole? It makes no sense at all.
If you're gaining extra months that's one thing, but for only a few week difference it seems counterproductive.
One possible explanation is differential turnout. The Tories might trust that their postal-voting oldies will turn out regardless of the weather or darkness, but younger, home-working, anti-Tory voters might be more likely to be dissuaded by a cold, dark, wet November day.
Hmm so octogenarians who are not so steady on their feet and have dodgy tickers are more likely to turn out on cold, dark nights than parents collecting the kids from school/childcare or youngsters jogging back from their PT sessions in the local park? It's a thought...
On topic, the election won't be September: that'd have to be called in August - although the campaign itself might well start in September.
I still think 14 Nov, despite the risk of the US election throwing the final week or so into a bit of turmoil. That said, I can see the appeal to Sunak of calling it in early Sept, so that MPs and other parties get pretty much zero chance to use Westminster to set an agenda, and so go for something like Oct 17.
Oct 17 or Oct 24 make more sense than November simply because it's before the clocks change.
People are more miserable in Nov than Oct after the clock change, always are, and haven't yet got Christmas cheer. Only January is more miserable than November.
So why as an incumbent government would you want to call the polls for when people are more miserable as a whole? It makes no sense at all.
If you're gaining extra months that's one thing, but for only a few week difference it seems counterproductive.
One possible explanation is differential turnout. The Tories might trust that their postal-voting oldies will turn out regardless of the weather or darkness, but younger, home-working, anti-Tory voters might be more likely to be dissuaded by a cold, dark, wet November day.
Hmm so octogenarians who are not so steady on their feet and have dodgy tickers are more likely to turn out on cold, dark nights than parents collecting the kids from school/childcare or youngsters jogging back from their PT sessions in the local park? It's a thought...
Sorry - missed the PV point - but nevertheless, I think the Tories would be mistaken if the think differential turnout at a winter election will help them.
Hard to claim Santa is a Tory too, whilst he is out there delivering non means tested benefits wearing red.
On topic, the election won't be September: that'd have to be called in August - although the campaign itself might well start in September.
I still think 14 Nov, despite the risk of the US election throwing the final week or so into a bit of turmoil. That said, I can see the appeal to Sunak of calling it in early Sept, so that MPs and other parties get pretty much zero chance to use Westminster to set an agenda, and so go for something like Oct 17.
Oct 17 or Oct 24 make more sense than November simply because it's before the clocks change.
People are more miserable in Nov than Oct after the clock change, always are, and haven't yet got Christmas cheer. Only January is more miserable than November.
So why as an incumbent government would you want to call the polls for when people are more miserable as a whole? It makes no sense at all.
If you're gaining extra months that's one thing, but for only a few week difference it seems counterproductive.
One possible explanation is differential turnout. The Tories might trust that their postal-voting oldies will turn out regardless of the weather or darkness, but younger, home-working, anti-Tory voters might be more likely to be dissuaded by a cold, dark, wet November day.
Hmm so octogenarians who are not so steady on their feet and have dodgy tickers are more likely to turn out on cold, dark nights than parents collecting the kids from school/childcare or youngsters jogging back from their PT sessions in the local park? It's a thought...
Sorry - missed the PV point - but nevertheless, I think the Tories would be mistaken if the think differential turnout at a winter election will help them.
I think the Tories would be mistaken if they think anything short of the Archangel Gabriel campaigning intensively across the whole country, and making the fullest possible use of his trumpet, will help them.
On topic, since me and the dog will be on the continent again come May. I’m fixing up a proxy vote, currently just for the police & commissioner election due that month. If I do miss the GE, it would be the first time ever that I have been abroad on election day.
I do hope your dog doesn't work for GCHQ.
Or worse, CCHQ.
Sadly he took the necessary cognitive ability assessments and did not achieve the required level for either organisation. He passed.
Barking.
But unlike the Tories, a loyal mutt.
They're being very loyal mutts at the moment. Sunak has lead them to sub-Truss polling and a Refuk defection, and so far the men in grey suits are conspicuous by their absence.
Membership comfortably chose Truss over Sunak - and have been proved right to 😀
On topic, the election won't be September: that'd have to be called in August - although the campaign itself might well start in September.
I still think 14 Nov, despite the risk of the US election throwing the final week or so into a bit of turmoil. That said, I can see the appeal to Sunak of calling it in early Sept, so that MPs and other parties get pretty much zero chance to use Westminster to set an agenda, and so go for something like Oct 17.
Oct 17 or Oct 24 make more sense than November simply because it's before the clocks change.
People are more miserable in Nov than Oct after the clock change, always are, and haven't yet got Christmas cheer. Only January is more miserable than November.
So why as an incumbent government would you want to call the polls for when people are more miserable as a whole? It makes no sense at all.
If you're gaining extra months that's one thing, but for only a few week difference it seems counterproductive.
One possible explanation is differential turnout. The Tories might trust that their postal-voting oldies will turn out regardless of the weather or darkness, but younger, home-working, anti-Tory voters might be more likely to be dissuaded by a cold, dark, wet November day.
Hmm so octogenarians who are not so steady on their feet and have dodgy tickers are more likely to turn out on cold, dark nights than parents collecting the kids from school/childcare or youngsters jogging back from their PT sessions in the local park? It's a thought...
On topic, since me and the dog will be on the continent again come May. I’m fixing up a proxy vote, currently just for the police & commissioner election due that month. If I do miss the GE, it would be the first time ever that I have been abroad on election day.
I do hope your dog doesn't work for GCHQ.
Or worse, CCHQ.
Sadly he took the necessary cognitive ability assessments and did not achieve the required level for either organisation. He passed.
Barking.
But unlike the Tories, a loyal mutt.
They're being very loyal mutts at the moment. Sunak has lead them to sub-Truss polling and a Refuk defection, and so far the men in grey suits are conspicuous by their absence.
Membership comfortably chose Truss over Sunak - and have been proved right to 😀
On topic, the election won't be September: that'd have to be called in August - although the campaign itself might well start in September.
I still think 14 Nov, despite the risk of the US election throwing the final week or so into a bit of turmoil. That said, I can see the appeal to Sunak of calling it in early Sept, so that MPs and other parties get pretty much zero chance to use Westminster to set an agenda, and so go for something like Oct 17.
Oct 17 or Oct 24 make more sense than November simply because it's before the clocks change.
People are more miserable in Nov than Oct after the clock change, always are, and haven't yet got Christmas cheer. Only January is more miserable than November.
So why as an incumbent government would you want to call the polls for when people are more miserable as a whole? It makes no sense at all.
If you're gaining extra months that's one thing, but for only a few week difference it seems counterproductive.
One possible explanation is differential turnout. The Tories might trust that their postal-voting oldies will turn out regardless of the weather or darkness, but younger, home-working, anti-Tory voters might be more likely to be dissuaded by a cold, dark, wet November day.
Hmm so octogenarians who are not so steady on their feet and have dodgy tickers are more likely to turn out on cold, dark nights than parents collecting the kids from school/childcare or youngsters jogging back from their PT sessions in the local park? It's a thought...
This octogenarian who has just bought a recliner - riser chair to help with being dodgy on his feet and had a pacemaker 5 weeks today will be using a postal vote
On topic, the election won't be September: that'd have to be called in August - although the campaign itself might well start in September.
I still think 14 Nov, despite the risk of the US election throwing the final week or so into a bit of turmoil. That said, I can see the appeal to Sunak of calling it in early Sept, so that MPs and other parties get pretty much zero chance to use Westminster to set an agenda, and so go for something like Oct 17.
Oct 17 or Oct 24 make more sense than November simply because it's before the clocks change.
People are more miserable in Nov than Oct after the clock change, always are, and haven't yet got Christmas cheer. Only January is more miserable than November.
So why as an incumbent government would you want to call the polls for when people are more miserable as a whole? It makes no sense at all.
If you're gaining extra months that's one thing, but for only a few week difference it seems counterproductive.
One possible explanation is differential turnout. The Tories might trust that their postal-voting oldies will turn out regardless of the weather or darkness, but younger, home-working, anti-Tory voters might be more likely to be dissuaded by a cold, dark, wet November day.
If you're going by that logic then why rule out a 2025 election?
Least turnout likely, and cuts the availability of people to be campaigning as they'll have Christmas instead.
And it happens automatically by default if no choice is made.
I wouldn't say that I'm ruling out January, but I think the effect of ridicule/annoyance at having an election campaign over Christmastide would count against it. And polling day in late January would potentially have more turnout than in darker late December when there is Christmas shopping and Christmas parties to attend to.
On topic, the election won't be September: that'd have to be called in August - although the campaign itself might well start in September.
I still think 14 Nov, despite the risk of the US election throwing the final week or so into a bit of turmoil. That said, I can see the appeal to Sunak of calling it in early Sept, so that MPs and other parties get pretty much zero chance to use Westminster to set an agenda, and so go for something like Oct 17.
Oct 17 or Oct 24 make more sense than November simply because it's before the clocks change.
People are more miserable in Nov than Oct after the clock change, always are, and haven't yet got Christmas cheer. Only January is more miserable than November.
So why as an incumbent government would you want to call the polls for when people are more miserable as a whole? It makes no sense at all.
If you're gaining extra months that's one thing, but for only a few week difference it seems counterproductive.
One possible explanation is differential turnout. The Tories might trust that their postal-voting oldies will turn out regardless of the weather or darkness, but younger, home-working, anti-Tory voters might be more likely to be dissuaded by a cold, dark, wet November day.
Hmm so octogenarians who are not so steady on their feet and have dodgy tickers are more likely to turn out on cold, dark nights than parents collecting the kids from school/childcare or youngsters jogging back from their PT sessions in the local park? It's a thought...
Sorry - missed the PV point - but nevertheless, I think the Tories would be mistaken if the think differential turnout at a winter election will help them.
Talking of octogenarians, here's an inspirational video I saw this week about an 87 year old touring haunts in Shropshire from earlier in his with his daughter, riding a pair of Bromptons.
She asked him which of his memories he would like to revisit, and he said these.
On topic, the election won't be September: that'd have to be called in August - although the campaign itself might well start in September.
I still think 14 Nov, despite the risk of the US election throwing the final week or so into a bit of turmoil. That said, I can see the appeal to Sunak of calling it in early Sept, so that MPs and other parties get pretty much zero chance to use Westminster to set an agenda, and so go for something like Oct 17.
Oct 17 or Oct 24 make more sense than November simply because it's before the clocks change.
People are more miserable in Nov than Oct after the clock change, always are, and haven't yet got Christmas cheer. Only January is more miserable than November.
So why as an incumbent government would you want to call the polls for when people are more miserable as a whole? It makes no sense at all.
If you're gaining extra months that's one thing, but for only a few week difference it seems counterproductive.
One possible explanation is differential turnout. The Tories might trust that their postal-voting oldies will turn out regardless of the weather or darkness, but younger, home-working, anti-Tory voters might be more likely to be dissuaded by a cold, dark, wet November day.
Hmm so octogenarians who are not so steady on their feet and have dodgy tickers are more likely to turn out on cold, dark nights than parents collecting the kids from school/childcare or youngsters jogging back from their PT sessions in the local park? It's a thought...
Sorry - missed the PV point - but nevertheless, I think the Tories would be mistaken if the think differential turnout at a winter election will help them.
Hard to claim Santa is a Tory too, whilst he is out there delivering non means tested benefits wearing red.
We did this a while back. Santa is extremely regressive - rich kids get expensive toys, poor ones nothing
Then you get on to child safeguarding, data security breaches, breaches of numerous aviation rules, dubious employment practices….
On topic, the election won't be September: that'd have to be called in August - although the campaign itself might well start in September.
I still think 14 Nov, despite the risk of the US election throwing the final week or so into a bit of turmoil. That said, I can see the appeal to Sunak of calling it in early Sept, so that MPs and other parties get pretty much zero chance to use Westminster to set an agenda, and so go for something like Oct 17.
Oct 17 or Oct 24 make more sense than November simply because it's before the clocks change.
People are more miserable in Nov than Oct after the clock change, always are, and haven't yet got Christmas cheer. Only January is more miserable than November.
So why as an incumbent government would you want to call the polls for when people are more miserable as a whole? It makes no sense at all.
If you're gaining extra months that's one thing, but for only a few week difference it seems counterproductive.
One possible explanation is differential turnout. The Tories might trust that their postal-voting oldies will turn out regardless of the weather or darkness, but younger, home-working, anti-Tory voters might be more likely to be dissuaded by a cold, dark, wet November day.
Hmm so octogenarians who are not so steady on their feet and have dodgy tickers are more likely to turn out on cold, dark nights than parents collecting the kids from school/childcare or youngsters jogging back from their PT sessions in the local park? It's a thought...
They have postal votes. They don't have to toddle down to the polling station.
On the holiday thing, both 1997 and 2015 had Easter during the campaign period...
1997: Dissolution - 17th March, Easter - 30th March 2015: Dissolution - 30th March, Easter - 5th April
Why was the dissolution in 1997 so much earlier? The election was six days earlier, but that doesn't explain why the dissolution was 13 days earlier.
Was the time between dissolution fixed by the Fixed Term Parliaments Act in 2015, but not fixed before?
Was a minimum of 17 working days before (from memory)
2019 election dissolution was 6th November. 5 weeks and a day before 12th December election date. 2017 dissolution was 3 May, also 5 weeks and a day before 8 June election.
On topic, the key reason to bet against May has nothing to do with holidays.
Many Tory MPs will be of the view that things are likely to get worse into the Autumn as the "running scared" narrative grows, and it may well be true that the best time to go for the Tory Party is now - they won't win, but may get a bit of credit for the surprise move, and limit the losses.
But Sunak doesn't face the same calculation. For him, the difference between May and November is six extra months as PM. He'll probably lose either way, and he's never going to get to be PM again. So it makes little difference how heavy his party's defeat is. Also, whilst November would probably produce a worse result, there is an outside chance of some event intervening between now and then. It's very unlikely, and any surprise could be a bad surprise just as much as it could be a good surprise. But it's more likely to happen over the course of eight months than it is over less than two.
There are a couple of other factors to consider.
Sunak still thinks that he has a chance of winning. Some of his recent moves may seem a bit erratic, but they're predicated on that belief and that attempts to find an angle that discredits Labour and make the government look better could actually matter. A similar calculation, perhaps related to the Rwanda policy, for example, might lead to an earlier election as part of a desperate gambit to create an election campaign narrative more favourable to the Tories.
A lot of Tory MPs just aren't going to care either way. Perhaps they're ready to move on into a post-Parliamentary career, or a few more months sounding out alternatives would suit them, but I'd guess there's many of them who have made their peace with defeat, in addition to those not standing for re-election. Perhaps this would overall tend towards favouring an early election, just to get it done and move on, but I don't think they're going to be that motivated to press the case for a particular date that strongly one way or another.
I spoke to an MP the other day who told me dozens of Tory MPs are desperate to go. Whether that affects Rishi of course is unknown.
On topic, since me and the dog will be on the continent again come May. I’m fixing up a proxy vote, currently just for the police & commissioner election due that month. If I do miss the GE, it would be the first time ever that I have been abroad on election day.
I do hope your dog doesn't work for GCHQ.
Or worse, CCHQ.
Sadly he took the necessary cognitive ability assessments and did not achieve the required level for either organisation. He passed.
Barking.
But unlike the Tories, a loyal mutt.
They're being very loyal mutts at the moment. Sunak has lead them to sub-Truss polling and a Refuk defection, and so far the men in grey suits are conspicuous by their absence.
Membership comfortably chose Truss over Sunak - and have been proved right to 😀
On topic, since me and the dog will be on the continent again come May. I’m fixing up a proxy vote, currently just for the police & commissioner election due that month. If I do miss the GE, it would be the first time ever that I have been abroad on election day.
I do hope your dog doesn't work for GCHQ.
Or worse, CCHQ.
Sadly he took the necessary cognitive ability assessments and did not achieve the required level for either organisation. He passed.
Barking.
But unlike the Tories, a loyal mutt.
They're being very loyal mutts at the moment. Sunak has lead them to sub-Truss polling and a Refuk defection, and so far the men in grey suits are conspicuous by their absence.
Membership comfortably chose Truss over Sunak - and have been proved right to 😀
To add a further point, I don't remember Truss at her polling nadir threatening the party with a General Election if they dared to remove her.
On topic, since me and the dog will be on the continent again come May. I’m fixing up a proxy vote, currently just for the police & commissioner election due that month. If I do miss the GE, it would be the first time ever that I have been abroad on election day.
I do hope your dog doesn't work for GCHQ.
Or worse, CCHQ.
Sadly he took the necessary cognitive ability assessments and did not achieve the required level for either organisation. He passed.
Barking.
But unlike the Tories, a loyal mutt.
They're being very loyal mutts at the moment. Sunak has lead them to sub-Truss polling and a Refuk defection, and so far the men in grey suits are conspicuous by their absence.
Membership comfortably chose Truss over Sunak - and have been proved right to 😀
Reminds me of the old joke from circa 1968:
"Everyone said, that if we voted for Barry Goldwater for President, we'd end bogged down fighting a war in Vietnam we can't win."
Well, I voted for Goldwater anyway . . . and they were right!"
On topic, since me and the dog will be on the continent again come May. I’m fixing up a proxy vote, currently just for the police & commissioner election due that month. If I do miss the GE, it would be the first time ever that I have been abroad on election day.
I do hope your dog doesn't work for GCHQ.
Or worse, CCHQ.
Sadly he took the necessary cognitive ability assessments and did not achieve the required level for either organisation. He passed.
Barking.
But unlike the Tories, a loyal mutt.
They're being very loyal mutts at the moment. Sunak has lead them to sub-Truss polling and a Refuk defection, and so far the men in grey suits are conspicuous by their absence.
Membership comfortably chose Truss over Sunak - and have been proved right to 😀
On topic, the election won't be September: that'd have to be called in August - although the campaign itself might well start in September.
I still think 14 Nov, despite the risk of the US election throwing the final week or so into a bit of turmoil. That said, I can see the appeal to Sunak of calling it in early Sept, so that MPs and other parties get pretty much zero chance to use Westminster to set an agenda, and so go for something like Oct 17.
Oct 17 or Oct 24 make more sense than November simply because it's before the clocks change.
People are more miserable in Nov than Oct after the clock change, always are, and haven't yet got Christmas cheer. Only January is more miserable than November.
So why as an incumbent government would you want to call the polls for when people are more miserable as a whole? It makes no sense at all.
If you're gaining extra months that's one thing, but for only a few week difference it seems counterproductive.
One possible explanation is differential turnout. The Tories might trust that their postal-voting oldies will turn out regardless of the weather or darkness, but younger, home-working, anti-Tory voters might be more likely to be dissuaded by a cold, dark, wet November day.
Hmm so octogenarians who are not so steady on their feet and have dodgy tickers are more likely to turn out on cold, dark nights than parents collecting the kids from school/childcare or youngsters jogging back from their PT sessions in the local park? It's a thought...
Sorry - missed the PV point - but nevertheless, I think the Tories would be mistaken if the think differential turnout at a winter election will help them.
They may well be mistaken, but they may well make their decision on a mistaken basis.
Any case for one date being better than another is pretty threadbare, but it's going to end up being one date, and a superficially convincing reason might be enough.
On topic, the key reason to bet against May has nothing to do with holidays.
Many Tory MPs will be of the view that things are likely to get worse into the Autumn as the "running scared" narrative grows, and it may well be true that the best time to go for the Tory Party is now - they won't win, but may get a bit of credit for the surprise move, and limit the losses.
But Sunak doesn't face the same calculation. For him, the difference between May and November is six extra months as PM. He'll probably lose either way, and he's never going to get to be PM again. So it makes little difference how heavy his party's defeat is. Also, whilst November would probably produce a worse result, there is an outside chance of some event intervening between now and then. It's very unlikely, and any surprise could be a bad surprise just as much as it could be a good surprise. But it's more likely to happen over the course of eight months than it is over less than two.
There are a couple of other factors to consider.
Sunak still thinks that he has a chance of winning. Some of his recent moves may seem a bit erratic, but they're predicated on that belief and that attempts to find an angle that discredits Labour and make the government look better could actually matter. A similar calculation, perhaps related to the Rwanda policy, for example, might lead to an earlier election as part of a desperate gambit to create an election campaign narrative more favourable to the Tories.
A lot of Tory MPs just aren't going to care either way. Perhaps they're ready to move on into a post-Parliamentary career, or a few more months sounding out alternatives would suit them, but I'd guess there's many of them who have made their peace with defeat, in addition to those not standing for re-election. Perhaps this would overall tend towards favouring an early election, just to get it done and move on, but I don't think they're going to be that motivated to press the case for a particular date that strongly one way or another.
I spoke to an MP the other day who told me dozens of Tory MPs are desperate to go. Whether that affects Rishi of course is unknown.
I would want to be 'free' asap
Mentally totting up 6 months of better incomes Rishi is depriving them, is NOT a good reason to go early. The decision, using all the science, modelling, and consulting many wise politico’s as possible, is simply about the policy targetting in month campaign, that avoids what looks like an historic meltdown to 99-149 seats.
When seat polling predicted Lib Dem meltdown, people just refused to believe it, is the danger here. Because although polls and MRP still say it is that historic, there is an air of not believing it.
On topic, since me and the dog will be on the continent again come May. I’m fixing up a proxy vote, currently just for the police & commissioner election due that month. If I do miss the GE, it would be the first time ever that I have been abroad on election day.
I do hope your dog doesn't work for GCHQ.
Or worse, CCHQ.
Sadly he took the necessary cognitive ability assessments and did not achieve the required level for either organisation. He passed.
Barking.
But unlike the Tories, a loyal mutt.
They're being very loyal mutts at the moment. Sunak has lead them to sub-Truss polling and a Refuk defection, and so far the men in grey suits are conspicuous by their absence.
Membership comfortably chose Truss over Sunak - and have been proved right to 😀
On topic, since me and the dog will be on the continent again come May. I’m fixing up a proxy vote, currently just for the police & commissioner election due that month. If I do miss the GE, it would be the first time ever that I have been abroad on election day.
I do hope your dog doesn't work for GCHQ.
Or worse, CCHQ.
Sadly he took the necessary cognitive ability assessments and did not achieve the required level for either organisation. He passed.
Barking.
But unlike the Tories, a loyal mutt.
They're being very loyal mutts at the moment. Sunak has lead them to sub-Truss polling and a Refuk defection, and so far the men in grey suits are conspicuous by their absence.
Membership comfortably chose Truss over Sunak - and have been proved right to 😀
To add a further point, I don't remember Truss at her polling nadir threatening the party with a General Election if they dared to remove her.
It all happened so fast, she couldn’t get the words out.
On topic, the election won't be September: that'd have to be called in August - although the campaign itself might well start in September.
I still think 14 Nov, despite the risk of the US election throwing the final week or so into a bit of turmoil. That said, I can see the appeal to Sunak of calling it in early Sept, so that MPs and other parties get pretty much zero chance to use Westminster to set an agenda, and so go for something like Oct 17.
Oct 17 or Oct 24 make more sense than November simply because it's before the clocks change.
People are more miserable in Nov than Oct after the clock change, always are, and haven't yet got Christmas cheer. Only January is more miserable than November.
So why as an incumbent government would you want to call the polls for when people are more miserable as a whole? It makes no sense at all.
If you're gaining extra months that's one thing, but for only a few week difference it seems counterproductive.
One possible explanation is differential turnout. The Tories might trust that their postal-voting oldies will turn out regardless of the weather or darkness, but younger, home-working, anti-Tory voters might be more likely to be dissuaded by a cold, dark, wet November day.
Hmm so octogenarians who are not so steady on their feet and have dodgy tickers are more likely to turn out on cold, dark nights than parents collecting the kids from school/childcare or youngsters jogging back from their PT sessions in the local park? It's a thought...
This octogenarian who has just bought a recliner - riser chair to help with being dodgy on his feet and had a pacemaker 5 weeks today will be using a postal vote
On other side of the Atlantic - and Pacific - later today will be returning my ballot in today's 2024 WA Presidential Primary ballot via my local post office.
WA State scheduled this for week AFTER Super Tuesday, as yet another sign that we truly are a State of Incompetence.
Apparently Badenoch says there should be space for forgiveness re Hester .
I’m sure she’d be also saying this if a Labour donor was involved !
Let’s be political about this, the Story was a Guardian exclusive. The timing is so obvious, spike the Extremism Action about to be announced - Gove defying legal advice to use Parliamentary Privilege to name and shame and get Labour wriggling and squirming and in trouble - possibly as the rabbit out the hat before calling an election on divisive anti extremism campaign.
How long have the guardian - or Labour who slipped it to them - sat on this story in a safe? Not literally sitting in a safe on it, you know what I mean. It’s metaphor.
On topic, the key reason to bet against May has nothing to do with holidays.
Many Tory MPs will be of the view that things are likely to get worse into the Autumn as the "running scared" narrative grows, and it may well be true that the best time to go for the Tory Party is now - they won't win, but may get a bit of credit for the surprise move, and limit the losses.
But Sunak doesn't face the same calculation. For him, the difference between May and November is six extra months as PM. He'll probably lose either way, and he's never going to get to be PM again. So it makes little difference how heavy his party's defeat is. Also, whilst November would probably produce a worse result, there is an outside chance of some event intervening between now and then. It's very unlikely, and any surprise could be a bad surprise just as much as it could be a good surprise. But it's more likely to happen over the course of eight months than it is over less than two.
Assumes he wants to be/cares about being PM for an extra six months.
Which is far from clear.
This is the thing I keep wondering about.
He doesn't seem to enjoy the job. He's not interested in the business or sport of politics. He has no history in the party - no long years of activism before he became an MP. There's nothing in his past that would engender the sort of doomed-but-dogged loyalty of the John Major sort.
We all assume that he's got plans outside of parliament after the election. Indeed, there's some question about whether he ever did actually give up that green card. In a year's time, he'll be in California - and will be much happier there.
So what's keeping him in the job? What makes him want to continue on for an extra six months?
It can't even be a sense of pride in doing the right thing, or being willing to take one for the team - the team would be better served by a May election.
I simply can't understand why he would delay. And yet all the signs are that that's exactly what he's going to do!
Apparently Badenoch says there should be space for forgiveness re Hester .
I’m sure she’d be also saying this if a Labour donor was involved !
Let’s be political about this, the Story was a Guardian exclusive. The timing is so obvious, spike the Extremism Action about to be announced - Gove defying legal advice to use Parliamentary Privilege to name and shame and get Labour wriggling and squirming and in trouble - possibly as the rabbit out the hat before calling an election on divisive anti extremism campaign.
How long have the guardian - or Labour who slipped it to them - sat on this story in a safe? Not literally sitting in a safe on it, you know what I mean. It’s metaphor.
I thought it would be more damaging closer to an election. But certainly you make a good point re the Gove issue. Unless the Tories hand back the donation then they just look like total hypocrites.
Apparently Badenoch says there should be space for forgiveness re Hester .
I’m sure she’d be also saying this if a Labour donor was involved !
Let’s be political about this, the Story was a Guardian exclusive. The timing is so obvious, spike the Extremism Action about to be announced - Gove defying legal advice to use Parliamentary Privilege to name and shame and get Labour wriggling and squirming and in trouble - possibly as the rabbit out the hat before calling an election on divisive anti extremism campaign.
How long have the guardian - or Labour who slipped it to them - sat on this story in a safe? Not literally sitting in a safe on it, you know what I mean. It’s metaphor.
I thought it would be more damaging closer to an election. But certainly you make a good point re the Gove issue. Unless the Tories hand back the donation then they just look like total hypocrites.
It's a plausible theory of MoonRabbit's. The timing is rather too neat for it to have been a pure coincidence.
I agree with TSE that September to December is the most likely, and that May is and always has been out of the picture.
Of that range, I think September is much more likely than the markets suggest; and that July is not out of the running.
September (late) would be best for the nation; get it over with, have an early announcement, and have the new outfit well in place before the reign of terror starts in the USA.
Apparently Badenoch says there should be space for forgiveness re Hester .
I’m sure she’d be also saying this if a Labour donor was involved !
Understandable. After all, he wanted Abbott shot, not Badenoch.
Appears key reason why Kemi BadEnoch is in CUPer cabinet, is similar to why GOPers elected Tim Scott a US Senator.
As a Black politico willing to defend anti-Black bigots (if not anti-Black bigotry per se) even as they are busily dog-whistling to Nazis & etc. beyond the pale (pun intended).
@SeaShantyIrish2 , would you say that having Hur testify before Congress is so far proving to be something of a self-own for the Republicans ?
In the absence of any progress in Trump's trial, it has been something of walk through of the solid rationale for indicting him in the documents case.
Yes. Or rather, hell yes!
That documents case baffles the hell out of me, because it really seems to boil down to a petulant desire not to return 'his' stuff, even though it is definitely presidential records material, and even if it were accepted he declassfied them. The rest of it is basically obstruction of an investigation into him holding on to it, when he could have just handed them over and never been charged at all. Whereas the other cases all amount to various types of deceit of unlawfulness to preserve power or wealth.
Thank goodness for him he landed a judge willing to be deferential on timescales.
Apparently Badenoch says there should be space for forgiveness re Hester .
I’m sure she’d be also saying this if a Labour donor was involved !
Let’s be political about this, the Story was a Guardian exclusive. The timing is so obvious, spike the Extremism Action about to be announced - Gove defying legal advice to use Parliamentary Privilege to name and shame and get Labour wriggling and squirming and in trouble - possibly as the rabbit out the hat before calling an election on divisive anti extremism campaign.
How long have the guardian - or Labour who slipped it to them - sat on this story in a safe? Not literally sitting in a safe on it, you know what I mean. It’s metaphor.
I thought it would be more damaging closer to an election. But certainly you make a good point re the Gove issue. Unless the Tories hand back the donation then they just look like total hypocrites.
It's a plausible theory of MoonRabbit's. The timing is rather too neat for it to have been a pure coincidence.
Just like the timing of the release of the views of the not-Labour candidate in Rochdale.
On topic, the key reason to bet against May has nothing to do with holidays.
Many Tory MPs will be of the view that things are likely to get worse into the Autumn as the "running scared" narrative grows, and it may well be true that the best time to go for the Tory Party is now - they won't win, but may get a bit of credit for the surprise move, and limit the losses.
But Sunak doesn't face the same calculation. For him, the difference between May and November is six extra months as PM. He'll probably lose either way, and he's never going to get to be PM again. So it makes little difference how heavy his party's defeat is. Also, whilst November would probably produce a worse result, there is an outside chance of some event intervening between now and then. It's very unlikely, and any surprise could be a bad surprise just as much as it could be a good surprise. But it's more likely to happen over the course of eight months than it is over less than two.
Assumes he wants to be/cares about being PM for an extra six months.
Which is far from clear.
This is the thing I keep wondering about.
He doesn't seem to enjoy the job. He's not interested in the business or sport of politics. He has no history in the party - no long years of activism before he became an MP. There's nothing in his past that would engender the sort of doomed-but-dogged loyalty of the John Major sort.
We all assume that he's got plans outside of parliament after the election. Indeed, there's some question about whether he ever did actually give up that green card. In a year's time, he'll be in California - and will be much happier there.
So what's keeping him in the job? What makes him want to continue on for an extra six months?
It can't even be a sense of pride in doing the right thing, or being willing to take one for the team - the team would be better served by a May election.
I simply can't understand why he would delay. And yet all the signs are that that's exactly what he's going to do!
It's just difficult to decide to definitely end your political career, even if you know it is likely and you have other plans lined up.
The real question is whether he serves out the next parliament on the backbenches, spending most of his time on other things, or just quits earlier than that.
Mainstreet Research / March 9, 2024 / n=1274 / MOE 2.7% / IVR
(% Change With 2021 Federal Election)
Another "time for a change" election. Trudeau and the Liberals have been around for a long time...
Am I misremembering, or haven’t the Canadian Tories turned away from Trumpist populism and gone more One Nation? If so, is this a model our own country’s Conservatives might want to look at?
Apparently Badenoch says there should be space for forgiveness re Hester .
I’m sure she’d be also saying this if a Labour donor was involved !
Let’s be political about this, the Story was a Guardian exclusive. The timing is so obvious, spike the Extremism Action about to be announced - Gove defying legal advice to use Parliamentary Privilege to name and shame and get Labour wriggling and squirming and in trouble - possibly as the rabbit out the hat before calling an election on divisive anti extremism campaign.
How long have the guardian - or Labour who slipped it to them - sat on this story in a safe? Not literally sitting in a safe on it, you know what I mean. It’s metaphor.
Yes but so what? No-one would be bothering with Hester if he wasn't the Conservatives major funder. Also no-one would have bothered with Corbyn's anti-semitism if he hadn't been Labour leader. The key is how you deal with it. Woefully in the case of Sunak and the Conservatives. Whataboutery isn't working for them this time.
On topic, the key reason to bet against May has nothing to do with holidays.
Many Tory MPs will be of the view that things are likely to get worse into the Autumn as the "running scared" narrative grows, and it may well be true that the best time to go for the Tory Party is now - they won't win, but may get a bit of credit for the surprise move, and limit the losses.
But Sunak doesn't face the same calculation. For him, the difference between May and November is six extra months as PM. He'll probably lose either way, and he's never going to get to be PM again. So it makes little difference how heavy his party's defeat is. Also, whilst November would probably produce a worse result, there is an outside chance of some event intervening between now and then. It's very unlikely, and any surprise could be a bad surprise just as much as it could be a good surprise. But it's more likely to happen over the course of eight months than it is over less than two.
Assumes he wants to be/cares about being PM for an extra six months.
Which is far from clear.
This is the thing I keep wondering about.
He doesn't seem to enjoy the job. He's not interested in the business or sport of politics. He has no history in the party - no long years of activism before he became an MP. There's nothing in his past that would engender the sort of doomed-but-dogged loyalty of the John Major sort.
We all assume that he's got plans outside of parliament after the election. Indeed, there's some question about whether he ever did actually give up that green card. In a year's time, he'll be in California - and will be much happier there.
So what's keeping him in the job? What makes him want to continue on for an extra six months?
It can't even be a sense of pride in doing the right thing, or being willing to take one for the team - the team would be better served by a May election.
I simply can't understand why he would delay. And yet all the signs are that that's exactly what he's going to do!
It's the "tell me about a time you've failed" interview question, I reckon.
Rishi is clearly intelligent and has had the opportunities to succeed greatly through his talent and hard work. Hence some of the more psychotic aspects of his worldview, the "let them become bankers" bits.
This might be the first time that he's really failed. And bright, diligent people don't like that.
I suspect he believes, really believes, that a few more months, a bit more work, he can turn this around. And it's not impossible that he can.
Just highly improbable, and the month by month decay works against him.
Mainstreet Research / March 9, 2024 / n=1274 / MOE 2.7% / IVR
(% Change With 2021 Federal Election)
Another "time for a change" election. Trudeau and the Liberals have been around for a long time...
Am I misremembering, or haven’t the Canadian Tories turned away from Trumpist populism and gone more One Nation? If so, is this a model our own country’s Conservatives might want to look at?
I don't think that is very likely. When a party loses it seems that their first instinct is denial, and to attribute it to not doing the opposite of the person who just won the election, which the people obviously want despite voting for the opposite.
I'd expect the Tories, as with Labour in previous elections, to go with the easiest option which coincidentally feeds into their desires. They haven't gone full centrist at the moment, but they haven't disavowed it either, and they obviously hate that - so they need to give full fat Conservatism a try. Especially with Reform likely to have cost them many seats.
Apparently Badenoch says there should be space for forgiveness re Hester .
I’m sure she’d be also saying this if a Labour donor was involved !
Let’s be political about this, the Story was a Guardian exclusive. The timing is so obvious, spike the Extremism Action about to be announced - Gove defying legal advice to use Parliamentary Privilege to name and shame and get Labour wriggling and squirming and in trouble - possibly as the rabbit out the hat before calling an election on divisive anti extremism campaign.
How long have the guardian - or Labour who slipped it to them - sat on this story in a safe? Not literally sitting in a safe on it, you know what I mean. It’s metaphor.
Timing with exclusives is always difficult. The longer you wait, the greater the chance someone else, quite legitimately, also gets hold of the story, prints it, and you lose 100% of the kudos. These things matter to media and journos infinitely more than they do to the public.
The newly expanded Champions League will have a tennis-style seeding system instead of a draw for the knock-out stages, and now involve a hybrid digital-manual draw for the “Swiss system” group stage.
An idea to even have a “US draft” style pick for knock-outs - where clubs would get to pick potential knock-out opponents depending on their table finish - was even discussed by Uefa, as a number of possibilities were raised.
Although the Champions League draw has become one of the showpiece events of the competition, Uefa modelling showed that a straight draw for who plays who in the opening stage would take up to four hours. It will instead by a hybrid system, with some of it digital and the rest manual, overseen by firms such as Ernst and Young. The exact process is still being discussed.
Russia scores 14/14. Not Neo-, not Quasi-, but actual fascism.
There are a few that hit a lot closer to home.
I think we should remember this when we think about how we deal with Russia. Unless Putin is stopped, he will not stop. We need to understand this and to prepare for it.
I've bene saying that the Russian government is fascist for some time, only to get replies elsewhere that "The Ukrainians are Nazis!!!!"
People like @NickPalmer , who think the war is our fault and trot out the same old excuses for Russia's excesses, should perhaps contemplate where their 'thinking' leads us.
Mainstreet Research / March 9, 2024 / n=1274 / MOE 2.7% / IVR
(% Change With 2021 Federal Election)
Another "time for a change" election. Trudeau and the Liberals have been around for a long time...
Am I misremembering, or haven’t the Canadian Tories turned away from Trumpist populism and gone more One Nation? If so, is this a model our own country’s Conservatives might want to look at?
Of course. Elections are always won from the center left or center right (except in very unusual circumstances)
Apparently Badenoch says there should be space for forgiveness re Hester .
I’m sure she’d be also saying this if a Labour donor was involved !
Let’s be political about this, the Story was a Guardian exclusive. The timing is so obvious, spike the Extremism Action about to be announced - Gove defying legal advice to use Parliamentary Privilege to name and shame and get Labour wriggling and squirming and in trouble - possibly as the rabbit out the hat before calling an election on divisive anti extremism campaign.
How long have the guardian - or Labour who slipped it to them - sat on this story in a safe? Not literally sitting in a safe on it, you know what I mean. It’s metaphor.
I thought it would be more damaging closer to an election. But certainly you make a good point re the Gove issue. Unless the Tories hand back the donation then they just look like total hypocrites.
It's a plausible theory of MoonRabbit's. The timing is rather too neat for it to have been a pure coincidence.
Yes, it's a good point. We can probably assume that Gove is busily re-drafting hist speech at this very moment.
There are presumably dozens of stories like this tucked away, waiting for the right moment to bring them out. It's inevitable, really, after 14 years in power.
And, of course, if the opportunity doesn't present itself, they'll be brought out during the election campaign instead.
This is my overriding memory of the 1997 election campaign - home from school during the Easter holidays watching the breakfast and lunchtime news programmes which were just filled with minor Tory scandals, most of which had clearly been sat on for years. Every single morning, there'd be an MP who'd had an affair five years ago, or someone who had done a spot of undeclared lobbying for a business in his constituency.
The tide has turned, and there are bound to be plenty of Tory MPs who've forged their swimming certificates...
Fox News; they did great. Republicans could literally vomit on the floor, slip in it and concuss themselves* and Jonathan Turley would commend them on their impressive work. https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1767610545639731458
Comments
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1767587344993894402
Which is far from clear.
I’d be interested to see what could be done.
Sunak still thinks that he has a chance of winning. Some of his recent moves may seem a bit erratic, but they're predicated on that belief and that attempts to find an angle that discredits Labour and make the government look better could actually matter. A similar calculation, perhaps related to the Rwanda policy, for example, might lead to an earlier election as part of a desperate gambit to create an election campaign narrative more favourable to the Tories.
A lot of Tory MPs just aren't going to care either way. Perhaps they're ready to move on into a post-Parliamentary career, or a few more months sounding out alternatives would suit them, but I'd guess there's many of them who have made their peace with defeat, in addition to those not standing for re-election. Perhaps this would overall tend towards favouring an early election, just to get it done and move on, but I don't think they're going to be that motivated to press the case for a particular date that strongly one way or another.
Best thing is that GOPers are really on a roll
> Sen. Katie Britt (R-Terrified) and her SOTU reply flop, critiqued more severely by REPUBLICANS than Democrats.
> Trump's U-turn on TikTok for profit and maybe fun
> Hur report publication + bravura Biden SOTU undercutting "demented vegetable" attack line.
Re: Hur "report" toooooooo many PBers took it at face value; unwise when it's the face of a Trumpist speaking.
Worked out rather sub-optimally in the end, lol!
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1767590824856961535
It’s the “forced choice” polling we would use in comparison, the one last week with the Tories on 31% just 11 behind.
Which is why I’m so relaxed about my analysis - if Team Rishi decides to wait till autumn, science, simple polling comparisons, can prove my analysis was correct.
Also remember in this election, largely rare and unique in you don’t have two sides going for the win, one is merely trying to avoid meltdown by targetting a much smaller group of voters with policy, to come home - so the best timing of the election is for that small group of voters and what they like. And all those gone Ref in last 18 months - what are they like 😃
On the left, crisp fresh green mango. On the right crisp light beer
Is that a custard apple in the middle? If so, why is it orangey yellow, not green?
And no Christmas mail.
But January might happen.
She asked him which of his memories he would like to revisit, and he said these.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-_Dsq03XP0
And of course Rishi is going to feck it up for you. It's what he does.
Then you get on to child safeguarding, data security breaches, breaches of numerous aviation rules, dubious employment practices….
2017 dissolution was 3 May, also 5 weeks and a day before 8 June election.
"Everyone said, that if we voted for Barry Goldwater for President, we'd end bogged down fighting a war in Vietnam we can't win."
Well, I voted for Goldwater anyway . . . and they were right!"
Any case for one date being better than another is pretty threadbare, but it's going to end up being one date, and a superficially convincing reason might be enough.
Colombian fruit is amazing
When seat polling predicted Lib Dem meltdown, people just refused to believe it, is the danger here. Because although polls and MRP still say it is that historic, there is an air of not believing it.
Also REALLY easy to eat. Just cut in half and scoop it out
That's sub optimal.
Republican group planning $50M campaign to block Trump from reelection
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/4526513-republican-group-planning-50m-campaign-to-block-trump-from-reelection/
WA State scheduled this for week AFTER Super Tuesday, as yet another sign that we truly are a State of Incompetence.
First tried to say "can't you read it ?", and then to stop half way through. LOL
lmao Rep. Dean has Hur read the part of his report where he owns Trump
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1767597114408702191
That earlier question about Hur accepting a job with a future Trump administration might have been close to the mark.
I’m sure she’d be also saying this if a Labour donor was involved !
What is the grinding called?
I just know it’s my trusty Spyderco Tenacious - fully serrated. Had it for a decade and as solid and sharp as ever
🤷🏼♂️
How long have the guardian - or Labour who slipped it to them - sat on this story in a safe?
Not literally sitting in a safe on it, you know what I mean. It’s metaphor.
He doesn't seem to enjoy the job. He's not interested in the business or sport of politics. He has no history in the party - no long years of activism before he became an MP. There's nothing in his past that would engender the sort of doomed-but-dogged loyalty of the John Major sort.
We all assume that he's got plans outside of parliament after the election. Indeed, there's some question about whether he ever did actually give up that green card. In a year's time, he'll be in California - and will be much happier there.
So what's keeping him in the job? What makes him want to continue on for an extra six months?
It can't even be a sense of pride in doing the right thing, or being willing to take one for the team - the team would be better served by a May election.
I simply can't understand why he would delay. And yet all the signs are that that's exactly what he's going to do!
I didn't think it looked quite like that; it's good to learn.
In the absence of any progress in Trump's trial, it has been something of walk through of the solid rationale for indicting him in the documents case.
Worth acquiring if you haven’t already
The timing is rather too neat for it to have been a pure coincidence.
Of that range, I think September is much more likely than the markets suggest; and that July is not out of the running.
September (late) would be best for the nation; get it over with, have an early announcement, and have the new outfit well in place before the reign of terror starts in the USA.
As a Black politico willing to defend anti-Black bigots (if not anti-Black bigotry per se) even as they are busily dog-whistling to Nazis & etc. beyond the pale (pun intended).
Thank goodness for him he landed a judge willing to be deferential on timescales.
Just three wins from my 7 bets today. It’s something to try and build on I suppose.
The real question is whether he serves out the next parliament on the backbenches, spending most of his time on other things, or just quits earlier than that.
Rishi is clearly intelligent and has had the opportunities to succeed greatly through his talent and hard work. Hence some of the more psychotic aspects of his worldview, the "let them become bankers" bits.
This might be the first time that he's really failed. And bright, diligent people don't like that.
I suspect he believes, really believes, that a few more months, a bit more work, he can turn this around. And it's not impossible that he can.
Just highly improbable, and the month by month decay works against him.
Hence December 19th.
I'd expect the Tories, as with Labour in previous elections, to go with the easiest option which coincidentally feeds into their desires. They haven't gone full centrist at the moment, but they haven't disavowed it either, and they obviously hate that - so they need to give full fat Conservatism a try. Especially with Reform likely to have cost them many seats.
Only if that does not work will they tack back.
"Surprise! Surprise!" - Gomer Pyle USMC (as portrayed by Jim Nabors; early example of "don't ask, don't tell)
There are presumably dozens of stories like this tucked away, waiting for the right moment to bring them out. It's inevitable, really, after 14 years in power.
And, of course, if the opportunity doesn't present itself, they'll be brought out during the election campaign instead.
This is my overriding memory of the 1997 election campaign - home from school during the Easter holidays watching the breakfast and lunchtime news programmes which were just filled with minor Tory scandals, most of which had clearly been sat on for years. Every single morning, there'd be an MP who'd had an affair five years ago, or someone who had done a spot of undeclared lobbying for a business in his constituency.
The tide has turned, and there are bound to be plenty of Tory MPs who've forged their swimming certificates...
That's how well it's going.
Fox News; they did great.
Republicans could literally vomit on the floor, slip in it and concuss themselves* and Jonathan Turley would commend them on their impressive work.
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1767610545639731458
*They pretty well did.
https://heinnie.com/spyderco-ukpk-frn-drop-point-flat-grind
And my normal "bugger these steak knives are blunt" one is one of these in style, but about 10% larger and without the flip-deploy and locking blade, which is more subtle than sitting in a restaurant sharpening their steak knife:
https://www.crkt.com/knife/ceo-compact-folding-knife-with-liner-lock?sku=7095CMS35
Both are not open to question in the UK; I'm not as international as you in habit.