Also liberal democracy doesnt seem to be the trend for this century as the number of democracies are falling in the world. We have only had the universal franchise since about 1930 a relatively short time and we are now seeing how democracies cant get anything done. Also you have an older population consistently voting their interests at the expense of the young.
Perhaps the suboptimal voting system in the UK has something to do with the suboptimal outcomes?
Not as a major factor I suspect. I want a reformed voting system as I think it would be fairer, but people can overplay how much changing it would alter things. Some places with better (in my eyes) voting systems still struggle to get things done, and it's not as though those with the same as ours have never been able to get things done.
The reason that we don’t “get things done” is that we don’t want to do things.
Suggest a Shortening Of The Way, and earnest and honest fellows will appear to defend each of the many points on the road.
I honestly think that the Tories have gone completely potty. They're making all the same PR mistakes Johnson made. Keir Starmer is a lucky general to be facing such a bunch of muppets.
Labour's racist? The Tories will be more racist.
Labour would spend money out of thin air? The Tories will spend more.
Labour's split? The Tories will split more.
Starmer is boring? Rishi will be weird.
It is like the script of how to lose, it's genuinely baffling that they are this bad.
The honest truth is that there has been a vacuum of competent people at the heart of government for some time now. Brexit hollowed out/removed a lot of the talent in the party, and the upper echelons are now filled with people who just aren’t very good at politics and media management. People like Truss and Sunak (and their respective acolytes) should never have got as far as Number 10.
Or it may be that Truss and Sunak are the good ones, relatively speaking. Have you seen people on the parliamentary backbenches? You can find some decent ones, if you look hard enough I guess.
Amazing quote from a senior Tory source in ace @MrHarryCole story.
“7 months is a long time in politics. Just imagine what would happen if England won the Euros, Team GB had a hat full of gold at the Olympics — the landscape could be very different.”
Delusional.
If nothing else we've had a very good run at the Olympics since 2008, we might be due for a bad run!
And I get the theory that if people feel good they won't be so hard on the government of the day, but there are limits. People felt good about WW2 ending, they didn't reward the incumbent Prime Minister.
Also, no-one really cares about the Olympics.
The football, granted. But will it make any difference to polling? Er, not likely.
With just over 4 hours to go until deadline, there is a small but steady stream of voters at front desk of King County Elections in Seattle suburb of Renton WA.
There are folks who either didn't get a ballot in the mail (perhaps their registration is inactive), or lost it, or want to register so they can vote today in either Democratic or Republican presidential primary.
In other sections of election HQ workers are processing ballots, for example checking voter signatures, and scanning ballots that have been validated into the tabulation system.
BIG wrinkle for presidential primary, is requirement that voters declare a party preference in order to vote in that party's pres primary (one only). Which means a lot more checking, sorting, double-checking and hence processing time, labor and expense.
Results from King County and WA's 38 other counties will be posted starting after 8pm PDT.
Amazing quote from a senior Tory source in ace @MrHarryCole story.
“7 months is a long time in politics. Just imagine what would happen if England won the Euros, Team GB had a hat full of gold at the Olympics — the landscape could be very different.”
Delusional.
If nothing else we've had a very good run at the Olympics since 2008, we might be due for a bad run!
And I get the theory that if people feel good they won't be so hard on the government of the day, but there are limits. People felt good about WW2 ending, they didn't reward the incumbent Prime Minister.
Remember reading strategy report in late 1991, written by Democratic strategist, who said that 1992 Olympics would give George Bush (the Elder & Better) a major boost, what with USA! USA! plus visuals of flag of Kuwait along with those of allies entering the stadium in triumph . . .
Well don't leave me in suspense, did it work?
Like a charm . . . made out of a lock of Boris Johnson's mop.
I'm sure it is not easy for them, but isn't the easy solution (if not already implemented) that the police wear body cams? They then don't need to worry about some spod with a smartphone catching something out of context.
Amazing quote from a senior Tory source in ace @MrHarryCole story.
“7 months is a long time in politics. Just imagine what would happen if England won the Euros, Team GB had a hat full of gold at the Olympics — the landscape could be very different.”
Delusional.
If nothing else we've had a very good run at the Olympics since 2008, we might be due for a bad run!
And I get the theory that if people feel good they won't be so hard on the government of the day, but there are limits. People felt good about WW2 ending, they didn't reward the incumbent Prime Minister.
Also, no-one really cares about the Olympics.
The football, granted. But will it make any difference to polling? Er, not likely.
I think quite a few people care about it while it’s on, and pay more attention to sports that don’t get any coverage normally (the conversations people start having around modern pentathlon and that weird horse dancing stuff attest to that). However, while I think people are generally pleased if/when GB do well, I very very much doubt that is a lasting feeling. It has probably dissipated a week after the event.
Also liberal democracy doesnt seem to be the trend for this century as the number of democracies are falling in the world. We have only had the universal franchise since about 1930 a relatively short time and we are now seeing how democracies cant get anything done. Also you have an older population consistently voting their interests at the expense of the young.
Perhaps the suboptimal voting system in the UK has something to do with the suboptimal outcomes?
Not as a major factor I suspect. I want a reformed voting system as I think it would be fairer, but people can overplay how much changing it would alter things. Some places with better (in my eyes) voting systems still struggle to get things done, and it's not as though those with the same as ours have never been able to get things done.
The reason that we don’t “get things done” is that we don’t want to do things.
Ain't that the truth.
The last couple of years, and struggle of governments even with huge majorities to do anything may have unduly influenced me here, but it feels like the general expectation now is that everything is too difficult to solve. Not just the big stuff, but even small and simple things like potholes. Never enough money despite high taxes, and nothing can done swiftly or easily.
Amazing quote from a senior Tory source in ace @MrHarryCole story.
“7 months is a long time in politics. Just imagine what would happen if England won the Euros, Team GB had a hat full of gold at the Olympics — the landscape could be very different.”
Delusional.
If nothing else we've had a very good run at the Olympics since 2008, we might be due for a bad run!
And I get the theory that if people feel good they won't be so hard on the government of the day, but there are limits. People felt good about WW2 ending, they didn't reward the incumbent Prime Minister.
Also, no-one really cares about the Olympics.
The football, granted. But will it make any difference to polling? Er, not likely.
I think quite a few people care about it while it’s on, and pay more attention to sports that don’t get any coverage normally (the conversations people start having around modern pentathlon and that weird horse dancing stuff attest to that). However, while I think people are generally pleased if/when GB do well, I very very much doubt that is a lasting feeling. It has probably dissipated a week after the event.
Maybe if the uniforms say 'Vote Tory' across them?
My analysis suggesting May 2nd was understanding the government have modelled for record boat crossings, know it’s going to happen, sure a lot of voters don’t give such a toss about the crossings nor legal and illegal immigration either, but the Tory campaign doesn’t give a fig about “all voters” anymore, just the 10% lost to Reform they need back to avoid record defeat, so the considerations are based on what that 10% want - more Boris - and they are getting more Boris, less net zero, and that’s deliverable to win them back, and stop the boats, as long time promised… ah. Hm.
But I have sort of changed my mind in this evolving situation. I’m not sure the surge in boat crossings is the biggest vote loser problem for the outgoing government, that will make the result worse for them in autumn compared to April campaign. I now think the big problem is just the existence of a government falling apart and not even doing anything with the extra 7 months, just still being there now the biggest vote loser for Tories that’s going to happen this summer?
The story is turning into how the government is disintegrating, into a sort of mess - what and when is going to change this narrative? How long is such a narrative sustainable? The mistake I may have made in my analysis is presuming Sunak and the government had a choice between May 2nd and Autumn, but as Boris Johnson said as he resigned, when the herd moves, you don’t have a choice.
Maybe in this instance the British Electorate are “the herd” - and everything points to them on the move?
When Harry Cole writes “go now, stem the bleed” is that the realisation of “we no longer have a choice” some of them have?
Interestingly if the Tories hadn't removed the FTPA, Sunak would likely have been forced out by now. Because they did, he has the power to tell them to shove it. Was that wise?
My analysis suggesting May 2nd was understanding the government have modelled for record boat crossings, know it’s going to happen, sure a lot of voters don’t give such a toss about the crossings nor legal and illegal immigration either, but the Tory campaign doesn’t give a fig about “all voters” anymore, just the 10% lost to Reform they need back to avoid record defeat, so the considerations are based on what that 10% want - more Boris - and they are getting more Boris, less net zero, and that’s deliverable to win them back, and stop the boats, as long time promised… ah. Hm.
But I have sort of changed my mind in this evolving situation. I’m not sure the surge in boat crossings is the biggest vote loser problem for the outgoing government, that will make the result worse for them in autumn compared to April campaign. I now think the big problem is just the existence of a government falling apart and not even doing anything with the extra 7 months, just still being there now the biggest vote loser for Tories that’s going to happen this summer?
The story is turning into how the government is disintegrating, into a sort of mess - what and when is going to change this narrative? How long is such a narrative sustainable? The mistake I may have made in my analysis is presuming Sunak and the government had a choice between May 2nd and Autumn, but as Boris Johnson said as he resigned, when the herd moves, you don’t have a choice.
Maybe in this instance the British Electorate are “the herd” - and everything points to them on the move?
When Harry Cole writes “go now, stem the bleed” is that the realisation of “we no longer have a choice” some of them have?
Starting to wobble on your 2nd May 2024 general election prediction, Moon?
My analysis suggesting May 2nd was understanding the government have modelled for record boat crossings, know it’s going to happen, sure a lot of voters don’t give such a toss about the crossings nor legal and illegal immigration either, but the Tory campaign doesn’t give a fig about “all voters” anymore, just the 10% lost to Reform they need back to avoid record defeat, so the considerations are based on what that 10% want - more Boris - and they are getting more Boris, less net zero, and that’s deliverable to win them back, and stop the boats, as long time promised… ah. Hm.
But I have sort of changed my mind in this evolving situation. I’m not sure the surge in boat crossings is the biggest vote loser problem for the outgoing government, that will make the result worse for them in autumn compared to April campaign. I now think the big problem is just the existence of a government falling apart and not even doing anything with the extra 7 months, now the biggest vote loser for Tories that’s going to happen this summer.
The story is turning into how the government is disintegrating, into a sort of mess - what and when is going to change this narrative? How long is such a narrative sustainable? The mistake I may have made in my analysis is presuming Sunak and the government had a choice between May 2nd and Autumn, but as Boris Johnson said as he resigned, when the herd moves, you don’t have a choice.
Maybe in this instance the British Electorate are “the herd” - and everything points to them on the move?
Liked because I like much of the above.
Reckon "the herd" here, is Tory caucus at Westminster, frantically scurrying toward the White Cliffs of Dover.
Amazing quote from a senior Tory source in ace @MrHarryCole story.
“7 months is a long time in politics. Just imagine what would happen if England won the Euros, Team GB had a hat full of gold at the Olympics — the landscape could be very different.”
Delusional.
If nothing else we've had a very good run at the Olympics since 2008, we might be due for a bad run!
And I get the theory that if people feel good they won't be so hard on the government of the day, but there are limits. People felt good about WW2 ending, they didn't reward the incumbent Prime Minister.
Amazing quote from a senior Tory source in ace @MrHarryCole story.
“7 months is a long time in politics. Just imagine what would happen if England won the Euros, Team GB had a hat full of gold at the Olympics — the landscape could be very different.”
Delusional.
If nothing else we've had a very good run at the Olympics since 2008, we might be due for a bad run!
And I get the theory that if people feel good they won't be so hard on the government of the day, but there are limits. People felt good about WW2 ending, they didn't reward the incumbent Prime Minister.
Also, no-one really cares about the Olympics.
The football, granted. But will it make any difference to polling? Er, not likely.
I think quite a few people care about it while it’s on, and pay more attention to sports that don’t get any coverage normally (the conversations people start having around modern pentathlon and that weird horse dancing stuff attest to that). However, while I think people are generally pleased if/when GB do well, I very very much doubt that is a lasting feeling. It has probably dissipated a week after the event.
Maybe if the uniforms say 'Vote Tory' across them?
Interestingly if the Tories hadn't removed the FTPA, Sunak would likely have been forced out by now. Because they did, he has the power to tell them to shove it. Was that wise?
Both Labour and the Tories pledged to repeal the FTPA. The Tories said it had led to paralysis whilst Labour said it had stifled democracy and propped up a weak government.
So wise or not they are getting what they wanted, and so criticisms from either internal or external opposition to Sunak game playing is a bit hypocritical when allowing it was the plan.
Interestingly if the Tories hadn't removed the FTPA, Sunak would likely have been forced out by now. Because they did, he has the power to tell them to shove it. Was that wise?
Long term... YES... of course!
Keep in mind since 1900 the Tories have been in power for around 60-70 years of the previous 124 years.
It is of course in their interests to keep FPTP and also to keep control of the Parliamentary timetable (including the ability for their PMs/leaders to call an election as and when they desire)
My analysis suggesting May 2nd was understanding the government have modelled for record boat crossings, know it’s going to happen, sure a lot of voters don’t give such a toss about the crossings nor legal and illegal immigration either, but the Tory campaign doesn’t give a fig about “all voters” anymore, just the 10% lost to Reform they need back to avoid record defeat, so the considerations are based on what that 10% want - more Boris - and they are getting more Boris, less net zero, and that’s deliverable to win them back, and stop the boats, as long time promised… ah. Hm.
But I have sort of changed my mind in this evolving situation. I’m not sure the surge in boat crossings is the biggest vote loser problem for the outgoing government, that will make the result worse for them in autumn compared to April campaign. I now think the big problem is just the existence of a government falling apart and not even doing anything with the extra 7 months, just still being there now the biggest vote loser for Tories that’s going to happen this summer?
The story is turning into how the government is disintegrating, into a sort of mess - what and when is going to change this narrative? How long is such a narrative sustainable? The mistake I may have made in my analysis is presuming Sunak and the government had a choice between May 2nd and Autumn, but as Boris Johnson said as he resigned, when the herd moves, you don’t have a choice.
Maybe in this instance the British Electorate are “the herd” - and everything points to them on the move?
When Harry Cole writes “go now, stem the bleed” is that the realisation of “we no longer have a choice” some of them have?
Starting to wobble on your 2nd May 2024 general election prediction, Moon?
Not at all. If “disintegrating government just squatting there” is the biggest vote losing narrative, it removes autumn even being a choice.
Look at the Wiki graph, same depth as Truss plunged, just reached in a more slow motion car crash. Do Rishi and the government even still have a choice of squatting another 7 months, bleeding more votes all the time?
My analysis suggesting May 2nd was understanding the government have modelled for record boat crossings, know it’s going to happen, sure a lot of voters don’t give such a toss about the crossings nor legal and illegal immigration either, but the Tory campaign doesn’t give a fig about “all voters” anymore, just the 10% lost to Reform they need back to avoid record defeat, so the considerations are based on what that 10% want - more Boris - and they are getting more Boris, less net zero, and that’s deliverable to win them back, and stop the boats, as long time promised… ah. Hm.
But I have sort of changed my mind in this evolving situation. I’m not sure the surge in boat crossings is the biggest vote loser problem for the outgoing government, that will make the result worse for them in autumn compared to April campaign. I now think the big problem is just the existence of a government falling apart and not even doing anything with the extra 7 months, just still being there now the biggest vote loser for Tories that’s going to happen this summer?
The story is turning into how the government is disintegrating, into a sort of mess - what and when is going to change this narrative? How long is such a narrative sustainable? The mistake I may have made in my analysis is presuming Sunak and the government had a choice between May 2nd and Autumn, but as Boris Johnson said as he resigned, when the herd moves, you don’t have a choice.
Maybe in this instance the British Electorate are “the herd” - and everything points to them on the move?
When Harry Cole writes “go now, stem the bleed” is that the realisation of “we no longer have a choice” some of them have?
Starting to wobble on your 2nd May 2024 general election prediction, Moon?
Not at all. If “disintegrating government just squatting there” is the biggest vote losing narrative, it removes autumn even being a choice.
Look at the Wiki graph, same depth as Truss plunged, just reached in a more slow motion car crash. Do Rishi and the government even still have a choice of squatting another 7 months, bleeding more votes all the time?
Something worth considering if Sunak goes for May 2nd: most local authorities will have venues booked for local election counts on the evening of May 2nd. In London, the verification is taking place in the morning of May 3rd - to ensure the Mayoral/GLA ballots are separated - and the count itself on May 4th. At this late stage, I don't think local authorities will have the manpower or the space to shift verification of an additional ballot to the evening of May 2nd, so there's a good chance we might not have the London results of a theoretical May 2nd election until the evening of Saturday May 4th. This, of course, would affect Starmer in Holborn and St Pancras. I'm not 100% sure if the King would need to wait until the formal declaration in Holborn and St Pancras before inviting Sir Keir to form a new government, but might have a minor affect on the post-election manuevering if Sunak remains in place for a couple of extra days.
My analysis suggesting May 2nd was understanding the government have modelled for record boat crossings, know it’s going to happen, sure a lot of voters don’t give such a toss about the crossings nor legal and illegal immigration either, but the Tory campaign doesn’t give a fig about “all voters” anymore, just the 10% lost to Reform they need back to avoid record defeat, so the considerations are based on what that 10% want - more Boris - and they are getting more Boris, less net zero, and that’s deliverable to win them back, and stop the boats, as long time promised… ah. Hm.
But I have sort of changed my mind in this evolving situation. I’m not sure the surge in boat crossings is the biggest vote loser problem for the outgoing government, that will make the result worse for them in autumn compared to April campaign. I now think the big problem is just the existence of a government falling apart and not even doing anything with the extra 7 months, just still being there now the biggest vote loser for Tories that’s going to happen this summer?
The story is turning into how the government is disintegrating, into a sort of mess - what and when is going to change this narrative? How long is such a narrative sustainable? The mistake I may have made in my analysis is presuming Sunak and the government had a choice between May 2nd and Autumn, but as Boris Johnson said as he resigned, when the herd moves, you don’t have a choice.
Maybe in this instance the British Electorate are “the herd” - and everything points to them on the move?
When Harry Cole writes “go now, stem the bleed” is that the realisation of “we no longer have a choice” some of them have?
Starting to wobble on your 2nd May 2024 general election prediction, Moon?
Not at all. If “disintegrating government just squatting there” is the biggest vote losing narrative, it removes autumn even being a choice.
Look at the Wiki graph, same depth as Truss plunged, just reached in a more slow motion car crash. Do Rishi and the government even still have a choice of squatting another 7 months, bleeding more votes all the time?
Let’s kick that one around, and try to answer it.
Someone brought that point of view to the bust up 1922 had with the top of the government this evening - If “disintegrating government just squatting there” is the biggest vote losing narrative over these 7 months, no choice but to go now - what is the counter argument which beats it? What stops the bleeding of votes, what wins votes back into meaningful swingback? Better news on economy? A further income tax/IHT tax cutting budget? Win Euro’s and get lots of gold medals? Stopping the boats and reducing immigration? Deploy Boris? Oil drilling, gas plants and fracking?
My analysis suggesting May 2nd was understanding the government have modelled for record boat crossings, know it’s going to happen, sure a lot of voters don’t give such a toss about the crossings nor legal and illegal immigration either, but the Tory campaign doesn’t give a fig about “all voters” anymore, just the 10% lost to Reform they need back to avoid record defeat, so the considerations are based on what that 10% want - more Boris - and they are getting more Boris, less net zero, and that’s deliverable to win them back, and stop the boats, as long time promised… ah. Hm.
But I have sort of changed my mind in this evolving situation. I’m not sure the surge in boat crossings is the biggest vote loser problem for the outgoing government, that will make the result worse for them in autumn compared to April campaign. I now think the big problem is just the existence of a government falling apart and not even doing anything with the extra 7 months, just still being there now the biggest vote loser for Tories that’s going to happen this summer?
The story is turning into how the government is disintegrating, into a sort of mess - what and when is going to change this narrative? How long is such a narrative sustainable? The mistake I may have made in my analysis is presuming Sunak and the government had a choice between May 2nd and Autumn, but as Boris Johnson said as he resigned, when the herd moves, you don’t have a choice.
Maybe in this instance the British Electorate are “the herd” - and everything points to them on the move?
When Harry Cole writes “go now, stem the bleed” is that the realisation of “we no longer have a choice” some of them have?
Starting to wobble on your 2nd May 2024 general election prediction, Moon?
Not at all. If “disintegrating government just squatting there” is the biggest vote losing narrative, it removes autumn even being a choice.
Look at the Wiki graph, same depth as Truss plunged, just reached in a more slow motion car crash. Do Rishi and the government even still have a choice of squatting another 7 months, bleeding more votes all the time?
Let’s kick that one around, and try to answer it.
Someone brought that point of view to the bust up 1922 had with the top of the government this evening - If “disintegrating government just squatting there” is the biggest vote losing narrative over these 7 months, no choice but to go now - what is the counter argument which beats it? What stops the bleeding of votes, what wins votes back into meaningful swingback? Better news on economy? A further income tax/IHT tax cutting budget? Win Euro’s and get lots of gold medals? Stopping the boats and reducing immigration? Deploy Boris? Oil drilling, gas plants and fracking?
What is going to more the dial?
Perhaps Tories could frack Boris? Talk about vast oil & (esp) gas deposits!
"liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016"
Relevant reading for the discussion re the Sargon of Akkad essay
I am always instinctively suspicious of any analysis that says "[political group] are ..."
But, to your point, I think the problem is that groups become over oppositional. The Democrats under Obama did a generally excellent job on the Southern Border. But once Trump made a big deal (ironically while allowing numbers ton soar) of migrants at the border, then the a Democrats found themselves opposing it because it was Trump.
And that opposition was stupid and wrong, and has had serious consequences.
With that said... I would suggest that a lot of the things that the Biden administration is now doing are pretty effective. Stopping the crossings at the Darien Gap is a hell of a lot easier than stopping them at the Mexican border.
Can anyone give an example of a government with a working majority going to the country early when they don't think they could win it? Does anyone in Sunak's camp think they can win in May? Maybe something might happen between now and January? Unlikely but 1% chance is better than zero.
Kemi did well to call out racist (and potentially violent) Tory donor Hester. She's going to make a cracking LOTO against dreary PM Starmer, IMO.
But who will be the three others who will follow her as LOTO, and would the leader of the Tory Party necessarily be the leader of the official opposition anyway?
Decision Desk HQ projects Donald Trump wins the Washington Republican Primary and has won enough delegates to secure the Republican Nomination for President
Can anyone give an example of a government with a working majority going to the country early when they don't think they could win it? Does anyone in Sunak's camp think they can win in May? Maybe something might happen between now and January? Unlikely but 1% chance is better than zero.
I agree with you, situations like this where an election is coming where the win won’t be contested is an odd event, 97 being the last example, perhaps 83 the only other similar one I can think of. No one in Sunak’s camp think they can actually win it either in May or Autumn, it’s about averting a meltdown. Conservatism in UK is under serious threat of being supplanted by populism, as has happened in notable continental countries - though associated with the right both these ideologies are so different as to be enemies of each other.
What does good look like for the Tories from here? Climbing from 25% to 31-34% for 160-220 MPs, bad is languishing 23-28% and going sub 150 MPs.
Decision Desk HQ projects Donald Trump wins the Washington Republican Primary and has won enough delegates to secure the Republican Nomination for President
Let’s just pray he wins the presidency. Or the West is finished
Can anyone give an example of a government with a working majority going to the country early when they don't think they could win it? Does anyone in Sunak's camp think they can win in May? Maybe something might happen between now and January? Unlikely but 1% chance is better than zero.
I agree with you, situations like this where an election is coming where the win won’t be contested is an odd event, 97 being the last example, perhaps 83 the only other similar one I can think of. No one in Sunak’s camp think they can actually win it either in May or Autumn, it’s about averting a meltdown. Conservatism in UK is under serious threat of being supplanted by populism, as has happened in notable continental countries - though associated with the right both these ideologies are so different as to be enemies of each other.
What does good look like for the Tories from here? Climbing from 25% to 31-34% for 160-220 MPs, bad is languishing 23-28% and going sub 150 MPs.
Hope this quick drawing of the picture helps.
Having inherited an understanding and liking of conservatism from my father, I don’t want to see it marginalised, weakened and supplanted by right wing populism in my homeland. This is very disconcerting times the more I think about it. 150 Conservative Party MPs won’t share much with the other 500 MPs in Parliament, so conservatism will be very marginalised. The current polling is in the middle of the 23-28% range, the MRP point to not much more than 100 MPs.
It’s like in F1 qualifying being in the danger zone and needing an excellent last lap to get out of it. There’s no room for anything to go wrong in that lap. That’s why I insist the decision on May or Autumn is very important - it’s not like “it doesn’t really make much difference, Autumn could hardly be worse than this” a lot of the thickest and stupidest PBers are posting.
Already in the drop zone, it’s about how to find that improved lap time, from a clear problem free run.
My analysis suggesting May 2nd was understanding the government have modelled for record boat crossings, know it’s going to happen, sure a lot of voters don’t give such a toss about the crossings nor legal and illegal immigration either, but the Tory campaign doesn’t give a fig about “all voters” anymore, just the 10% lost to Reform they need back to avoid record defeat, so the considerations are based on what that 10% want - more Boris - and they are getting more Boris, less net zero, and that’s deliverable to win them back, and stop the boats, as long time promised… ah. Hm.
But I have sort of changed my mind in this evolving situation. I’m not sure the surge in boat crossings is the biggest vote loser problem for the outgoing government, that will make the result worse for them in autumn compared to April campaign. I now think the big problem is just the existence of a government falling apart and not even doing anything with the extra 7 months, just still being there now the biggest vote loser for Tories that’s going to happen this summer?
The story is turning into how the government is disintegrating, into a sort of mess - what and when is going to change this narrative? How long is such a narrative sustainable? The mistake I may have made in my analysis is presuming Sunak and the government had a choice between May 2nd and Autumn, but as Boris Johnson said as he resigned, when the herd moves, you don’t have a choice.
Maybe in this instance the British Electorate are “the herd” - and everything points to them on the move?
When Harry Cole writes “go now, stem the bleed” is that the realisation of “we no longer have a choice” some of them have?
Starting to wobble on your 2nd May 2024 general election prediction, Moon?
The mistake she made was not throwing out a few other posts predicting other dates….
Can anyone give an example of a government with a working majority going to the country early when they don't think they could win it? Does anyone in Sunak's camp think they can win in May? Maybe something might happen between now and January? Unlikely but 1% chance is better than zero.
I agree with you, situations like this where an election is coming where the win won’t be contested is an odd event, 97 being the last example, perhaps 83 the only other similar one I can think of. No one in Sunak’s camp think they can actually win it either in May or Autumn, it’s about averting a meltdown. Conservatism in UK is under serious threat of being supplanted by populism, as has happened in notable continental countries - though associated with the right both these ideologies are so different as to be enemies of each other.
What does good look like for the Tories from here? Climbing from 25% to 31-34% for 160-220 MPs, bad is languishing 23-28% and going sub 150 MPs.
Hope this quick drawing of the picture helps.
Having inherited an understanding and liking of conservatism from my father, I don’t want to see it marginalised, weakened and supplanted by right wing populism in my homeland. This is very disconcerting times the more I think about it. 150 Conservative Party MPs won’t share much with the other 500 MPs in Parliament, so conservatism will be very marginalised. The current polling is in the middle of the 23-28% range, the MRP point to not much more than 100 MPs.
It’s like in F1 qualifying being in the danger zone and needing an excellent last lap to get out of it. There’s no room for anything to go wrong in that lap. That’s why I insist the decision on May or Autumn is very important - it’s not like “it doesn’t really make much difference, Autumn could hardly be worse than this” a lot of the thickest and stupidest PBers are posting.
Already in the drop zone, it’s about how to find that improved lap time, from a clear problem free run.
That will depend on what arises from the fallout in the Tory party, if they have such a disastrous election. In parliament the upshot of a real Tory meltdown would be a decent group of LibDems, which will bolster moderation. The extremism will all be outside the chamber, and its future path would depend on who secures control of the Conservative brand, or what replaces it.
Fair enough. Maybe I’ll reserve my ire for English people who use it then (to mean, er, now).
Concepts of time can be very different culturally and ‘we’ (British if you are) can learn a lot from them.
Many African languages have either no word for the future tense, or only one which is usually a nebulous concept.
What they often have are several different ways of expressing what impoverished Europeans refer to as the present.
For example, in one part of central Africa that I know there are three different tenses for whether someone is dead.
1. They are in the process of dying. 2. They are dying right now 3. They have finished dying
These subtle differences have come about because they are more connected with the processes involved, closer to the reality.
As for the future, why have a tense for something you might not live to see? Sufficient unto the day are the troubles thereof. Live for the day and if you’re do happen still to be alive the following day, that’s for living in the now.
Decision Desk HQ projects Donald Trump wins the Washington Republican Primary and has won enough delegates to secure the Republican Nomination for President
Let’s just pray he wins the presidency. Or the West is finished
Ref. election date and the November dark issue, it may well be that the old ways are bygone. Struggling out in the dark after the clocks have gone back doesn’t really resonate with contemporary living. Nor is November usually cold nowadays.
The issue is more that it’s a miserable month. Many people consider it the worst month of the year. It’s neither autumn nor Christmas. It’s often wet, heating costs are rising, and there’s not a lot to look forward to.
I do think we, and this may well include CCHQ, have been lulled into thinking winter elections are fine because of the one-off ‘Get Brexit Done’ vote. The tories are making a mistake if they assume just because that one worked, it can do so again.
They would be well advised to go to the country before the clocks go back. But whatever date they hold it, they’re going to be hammered.
"liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016"
Relevant reading for the discussion re the Sargon of Akkad essay
I am always instinctively suspicious of any analysis that says "[political group] are ..."
But, to your point, I think the problem is that groups become over oppositional. The Democrats under Obama did a generally excellent job on the Southern Border. But once Trump made a big deal (ironically while allowing numbers ton soar) of migrants at the border, then the a Democrats found themselves opposing it because it was Trump.
And that opposition was stupid and wrong, and has had serious consequences.
With that said... I would suggest that a lot of the things that the Biden administration is now doing are pretty effective. Stopping the crossings at the Darien Gap is a hell of a lot easier than stopping them at the Mexican border.
That said, the GOP are also blocking legislation they themselves helped draft in the Senate, which would help further address the problem. Even though there is almost certainly a majority in the House who'd vote for it. Solely so that Trump can say the border is a problem at the next election.
On that note, this is a great rant about the Hastert Rule, which the GOP leadership is using to block.a vote.
The informal Hastert rule is a bastardization brought about by our two party system and it needs to die.
In the early 2000s it’s the reason why immigration reform wasn’t passed (GOPs controlled the house then by the way).
This whole idea of the majority needing support of the majority party is bullshit. If 200 dems and 75 Republicans support a bill, the majority isn’t the majority party who runs speaker. It’s counter to democratic values for any party to follow this unwritten rule. The majority is always the side with the most votes regardless of party affiliation. And it wouldn’t even be a thing if we had a multi party system. All the more reason we need independents and strong non dem/GOP parties in our government. Currently these bullshit informal type rules prevent compromise.
Also Hastert is a pedo who used hush money to hide his sex assault bullshit. Maybe it’s not a good idea to follow in his footsteps. I guess we can give kudos for “god fearing”Johnson following a pedo and criminal example.
I’d like to remind people 41 character statements were accepted(they were made public to be accepted) and more were withdrawn to avoid backlash on politicians. And instead of getting justice, he was sentenced to a mild prison sentence compared to what he should have received.
Can anyone give an example of a government with a working majority going to the country early when they don't think they could win it? Does anyone in Sunak's camp think they can win in May? Maybe something might happen between now and January? Unlikely but 1% chance is better than zero.
I agree with you, situations like this where an election is coming where the win won’t be contested is an odd event, 97 being the last example, perhaps 83 the only other similar one I can think of. No one in Sunak’s camp think they can actually win it either in May or Autumn, it’s about averting a meltdown. Conservatism in UK is under serious threat of being supplanted by populism, as has happened in notable continental countries - though associated with the right both these ideologies are so different as to be enemies of each other.
What does good look like for the Tories from here? Climbing from 25% to 31-34% for 160-220 MPs, bad is languishing 23-28% and going sub 150 MPs.
Hope this quick drawing of the picture helps.
Having inherited an understanding and liking of conservatism from my father, I don’t want to see it marginalised, weakened and supplanted by right wing populism in my homeland. This is very disconcerting times the more I think about it. 150 Conservative Party MPs won’t share much with the other 500 MPs in Parliament, so conservatism will be very marginalised. The current polling is in the middle of the 23-28% range, the MRP point to not much more than 100 MPs.
It’s like in F1 qualifying being in the danger zone and needing an excellent last lap to get out of it. There’s no room for anything to go wrong in that lap. That’s why I insist the decision on May or Autumn is very important - it’s not like “it doesn’t really make much difference, Autumn could hardly be worse than this” a lot of the thickest and stupidest PBers are posting.
Already in the drop zone, it’s about how to find that improved lap time, from a clear problem free run.
One Nation Toryism is dead. Brexit killed it and its not coming back at any time soon.
All we have left is a cocktail of Populists spouting unpopular ideas that are only popular amongst their mates on GBNews. Populism always gets wrecked on the rocks of incoherence.
The current Tories deserve a thrashing and look like they are going to get one. I shall dance on their political graves.
Decision Desk HQ projects Donald Trump wins the Washington Republican Primary and has won enough delegates to secure the Republican Nomination for President
Let’s just pray he wins the presidency. Or the West is finished
Never knowingly short of hyperbole
If Trump wins, NATO falls and the EU and the US go their separate ways. That is the fall of "The West". Your "boy who cried woke" is is just right wing tosh.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hastert_rule The Hastert rule, also known as the "majority of the majority" rule, is an informal governing principle used in the United States by Republican Speakers of the House of Representatives since the mid-1990s to maintain their speakerships[1] and limit the power of the minority party to bring bills up for a vote on the floor of the House.[2] Under the doctrine, the speaker will not allow a floor vote on a bill unless a majority of the majority party supports the bill...
Imagine if there were a "Paedo MP rule" the conservatives had introduced in the Commons to prevent any opposition motions ever being voted on.
"liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016"
Relevant reading for the discussion re the Sargon of Akkad essay
I am always instinctively suspicious of any analysis that says "[political group] are ..."
But, to your point, I think the problem is that groups become over oppositional. The Democrats under Obama did a generally excellent job on the Southern Border. But once Trump made a big deal (ironically while allowing numbers ton soar) of migrants at the border, then the a Democrats found themselves opposing it because it was Trump.
And that opposition was stupid and wrong, and has had serious consequences.
With that said... I would suggest that a lot of the things that the Biden administration is now doing are pretty effective. Stopping the crossings at the Darien Gap is a hell of a lot easier than stopping them at the Mexican border.
That said, the GOP are also blocking legislation they themselves helped draft in the Senate, which would help further address the problem. Even though there is almost certainly a majority in the House who'd vote for it. Solely so that Trump can say the border is a problem at the next election.
On that note, this is a great rant about the Hastert Rule, which the GOP leadership is using to block.a vote.
The informal Hastert rule is a bastardization brought about by our two party system and it needs to die.
In the early 2000s it’s the reason why immigration reform wasn’t passed (GOPs controlled the house then by the way).
This whole idea of the majority needing support of the majority party is bullshit. If 200 dems and 75 Republicans support a bill, the majority isn’t the majority party who runs speaker. It’s counter to democratic values for any party to follow this unwritten rule. The majority is always the side with the most votes regardless of party affiliation. And it wouldn’t even be a thing if we had a multi party system. All the more reason we need independents and strong non dem/GOP parties in our government. Currently these bullshit informal type rules prevent compromise.
Also Hastert is a pedo who used hush money to hide his sex assault bullshit. Maybe it’s not a good idea to follow in his footsteps. I guess we can give kudos for “god fearing”Johnson following a pedo and criminal example.
I’d like to remind people 41 character statements were accepted(they were made public to be accepted) and more were withdrawn to avoid backlash on politicians. And instead of getting justice, he was sentenced to a mild prison sentence compared to what he should have received.
Ref. election date and the November dark issue, it may well be that the old ways are bygone. Struggling out in the dark after the clocks have gone back doesn’t really resonate with contemporary living. Nor is November usually cold nowadays.
The issue is more that it’s a miserable month. Many people consider it the worst month of the year. It’s neither autumn nor Christmas. It’s often wet, heating costs are rising, and there’s not a lot to look forward to.
I do think we, and this may well include CCHQ, have been lulled into thinking winter elections are fine because of the one-off ‘Get Brexit Done’ vote. The tories are making a mistake if they assume just because that one worked, it can do so again.
They would be well advised to go to the country before the clocks go back. But whatever date they hold it, they’re going to be hammered.
"liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...
If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016"
Relevant reading for the discussion re the Sargon of Akkad essay
I am always instinctively suspicious of any analysis that says "[political group] are ..."
But, to your point, I think the problem is that groups become over oppositional. The Democrats under Obama did a generally excellent job on the Southern Border. But once Trump made a big deal (ironically while allowing numbers ton soar) of migrants at the border, then the a Democrats found themselves opposing it because it was Trump.
And that opposition was stupid and wrong, and has had serious consequences.
With that said... I would suggest that a lot of the things that the Biden administration is now doing are pretty effective. Stopping the crossings at the Darien Gap is a hell of a lot easier than stopping them at the Mexican border.
That said, the GOP are also blocking legislation they themselves helped draft in the Senate, which would help further address the problem. Even though there is almost certainly a majority in the House who'd vote for it. Solely so that Trump can say the border is a problem at the next election.
On that note, this is a great rant about the Hastert Rule, which the GOP leadership is using to block.a vote.
The informal Hastert rule is a bastardization brought about by our two party system and it needs to die.
In the early 2000s it’s the reason why immigration reform wasn’t passed (GOPs controlled the house then by the way).
This whole idea of the majority needing support of the majority party is bullshit. If 200 dems and 75 Republicans support a bill, the majority isn’t the majority party who runs speaker. It’s counter to democratic values for any party to follow this unwritten rule. The majority is always the side with the most votes regardless of party affiliation. And it wouldn’t even be a thing if we had a multi party system. All the more reason we need independents and strong non dem/GOP parties in our government. Currently these bullshit informal type rules prevent compromise.
Also Hastert is a pedo who used hush money to hide his sex assault bullshit. Maybe it’s not a good idea to follow in his footsteps. I guess we can give kudos for “god fearing”Johnson following a pedo and criminal example.
I’d like to remind people 41 character statements were accepted(they were made public to be accepted) and more were withdrawn to avoid backlash on politicians. And instead of getting justice, he was sentenced to a mild prison sentence compared to what he should have received.
My analysis suggesting May 2nd was understanding the government have modelled for record boat crossings, know it’s going to happen, sure a lot of voters don’t give such a toss about the crossings nor legal and illegal immigration either, but the Tory campaign doesn’t give a fig about “all voters” anymore, just the 10% lost to Reform they need back to avoid record defeat, so the considerations are based on what that 10% want - more Boris - and they are getting more Boris, less net zero, and that’s deliverable to win them back, and stop the boats, as long time promised… ah. Hm.
But I have sort of changed my mind in this evolving situation. I’m not sure the surge in boat crossings is the biggest vote loser problem for the outgoing government, that will make the result worse for them in autumn compared to April campaign. I now think the big problem is just the existence of a government falling apart and not even doing anything with the extra 7 months, just still being there now the biggest vote loser for Tories that’s going to happen this summer?
The story is turning into how the government is disintegrating, into a sort of mess - what and when is going to change this narrative? How long is such a narrative sustainable? The mistake I may have made in my analysis is presuming Sunak and the government had a choice between May 2nd and Autumn, but as Boris Johnson said as he resigned, when the herd moves, you don’t have a choice.
Maybe in this instance the British Electorate are “the herd” - and everything points to them on the move?
When Harry Cole writes “go now, stem the bleed” is that the realisation of “we no longer have a choice” some of them have?
Starting to wobble on your 2nd May 2024 general election prediction, Moon?
The mistake she made was not throwing out a few other posts predicting other dates….
Quite few other entries in the predictions contest for May. I went for November 28th myself but the disintegration of Sunaks government is unpredictable enough that May exists as a possibility for another week or so.
I don't think he can last to Autumn if he tries to.
Amazing quote from a senior Tory source in ace @MrHarryCole story.
“7 months is a long time in politics. Just imagine what would happen if England won the Euros, Team GB had a hat full of gold at the Olympics — the landscape could be very different.”
They now want other people to do even their Hail Mary passes?
Decision Desk HQ projects Donald Trump wins the Washington Republican Primary and has won enough delegates to secure the Republican Nomination for President
Let’s just pray he wins the presidency. Or the West is finished
Never knowingly short of hyperbole
If Trump wins, NATO falls and the EU and the US go their separate ways. That is the fall of "The West". Your "boy who cried woke" is is just right wing tosh.
You define “the West” as NATO? What does “Western civilisation” mean in that case?
My analysis suggesting May 2nd was understanding the government have modelled for record boat crossings, know it’s going to happen, sure a lot of voters don’t give such a toss about the crossings nor legal and illegal immigration either, but the Tory campaign doesn’t give a fig about “all voters” anymore, just the 10% lost to Reform they need back to avoid record defeat, so the considerations are based on what that 10% want - more Boris - and they are getting more Boris, less net zero, and that’s deliverable to win them back, and stop the boats, as long time promised… ah. Hm.
But I have sort of changed my mind in this evolving situation. I’m not sure the surge in boat crossings is the biggest vote loser problem for the outgoing government, that will make the result worse for them in autumn compared to April campaign. I now think the big problem is just the existence of a government falling apart and not even doing anything with the extra 7 months, just still being there now the biggest vote loser for Tories that’s going to happen this summer?
The story is turning into how the government is disintegrating, into a sort of mess - what and when is going to change this narrative? How long is such a narrative sustainable? The mistake I may have made in my analysis is presuming Sunak and the government had a choice between May 2nd and Autumn, but as Boris Johnson said as he resigned, when the herd moves, you don’t have a choice.
Maybe in this instance the British Electorate are “the herd” - and everything points to them on the move?
When Harry Cole writes “go now, stem the bleed” is that the realisation of “we no longer have a choice” some of them have?
Starting to wobble on your 2nd May 2024 general election prediction, Moon?
The mistake she made was not throwing out a few other posts predicting other dates….
Quite few other entries in the predictions contest for May. I went for November 28th myself but the disintegration of Sunaks government is unpredictable enough that May exists as a possibility for another week or so.
I don't think he can last to Autumn if he tries to.
I still reckon May was a possible until very very recently - this week (Anderson & Reform, and the £10million donor racism comments) killed it off, I think a May election represented a decent chance that the Tories may rue
Can anyone give an example of a government with a working majority going to the country early when they don't think they could win it? Does anyone in Sunak's camp think they can win in May? Maybe something might happen between now and January? Unlikely but 1% chance is better than zero.
The problem with that analysis is no "government with a working majority" has faced the prospect of a Canada style wipeout if they delay too long.
Decision Desk HQ projects Donald Trump wins the Washington Republican Primary and has won enough delegates to secure the Republican Nomination for President
Let’s just pray he wins the presidency. Or the West is finished
Never knowingly short of hyperbole
If Trump wins, NATO falls and the EU and the US go their separate ways. That is the fall of "The West". Your "boy who cried woke" is is just right wing tosh.
You define “the West” as NATO? What does “Western civilisation” mean in that case?
Well given last week’s papal comments, I think it’s fair to say not the Roman Catholic Church.
Can anyone give an example of a government with a working majority going to the country early when they don't think they could win it? Does anyone in Sunak's camp think they can win in May? Maybe something might happen between now and January? Unlikely but 1% chance is better than zero.
The problem with that analysis is no "government with a working majority" has faced the prospect of a Canada style wipeout if they delay too long.
May will be bad.
Autumn will be existential.
My guess is that autumn will be similar to May. In both cases there will be some swingback. Of enough to prevent a clear Labour majority but easily enough to avoid a Canada.
That 25% or so of voters saying they’ll vote Conservative even now seems unlikely to switch to Labour. Ref are already on 12-13%. I think we’re at the Tory nadir. It just happens to be a very low nadir.
Can anyone give an example of a government with a working majority going to the country early when they don't think they could win it? Does anyone in Sunak's camp think they can win in May? Maybe something might happen between now and January? Unlikely but 1% chance is better than zero.
I agree with you, situations like this where an election is coming where the win won’t be contested is an odd event, 97 being the last example, perhaps 83 the only other similar one I can think of. No one in Sunak’s camp think they can actually win it either in May or Autumn, it’s about averting a meltdown. Conservatism in UK is under serious threat of being supplanted by populism, as has happened in notable continental countries - though associated with the right both these ideologies are so different as to be enemies of each other.
What does good look like for the Tories from here? Climbing from 25% to 31-34% for 160-220 MPs, bad is languishing 23-28% and going sub 150 MPs.
Hope this quick drawing of the picture helps.
Having inherited an understanding and liking of conservatism from my father, I don’t want to see it marginalised, weakened and supplanted by right wing populism in my homeland. This is very disconcerting times the more I think about it. 150 Conservative Party MPs won’t share much with the other 500 MPs in Parliament, so conservatism will be very marginalised. The current polling is in the middle of the 23-28% range, the MRP point to not much more than 100 MPs.
It’s like in F1 qualifying being in the danger zone and needing an excellent last lap to get out of it. There’s no room for anything to go wrong in that lap. That’s why I insist the decision on May or Autumn is very important - it’s not like “it doesn’t really make much difference, Autumn could hardly be worse than this” a lot of the thickest and stupidest PBers are posting.
Already in the drop zone, it’s about how to find that improved lap time, from a clear problem free run.
But Starmer's recent jibe- that the Conservatism of your parent (and mine) is dead- seems pretty accurate.
It's been on the critical list for a while, Johnson was a quack remedy which seemed to work for a bit but left the patient worse, Truss was the coup de grace.
It's a shame, because a lot of its insights are sorely needed. Sound money, eyes to the future and the less fortunate. Openness to the world, rooted in who we uniquely are. One nation, but not intrusively so.
But this half-assed Thatcherite cosplay that looks longingly at the harder right? That thinks Rishi is too wet?
Apart from not wanting Starmer to have too big a majority, is it even worth saving?
Decision Desk HQ projects Donald Trump wins the Washington Republican Primary and has won enough delegates to secure the Republican Nomination for President
Let’s just pray he wins the presidency. Or the West is finished
Never knowingly short of hyperbole
If Trump wins, NATO falls and the EU and the US go their separate ways. That is the fall of "The West". Your "boy who cried woke" is is just right wing tosh.
You define “the West” as NATO? What does “Western civilisation” mean in that case?
I’d suggest a definition includes democracy and the rule of law, two things Trump opposes.
Interestingly if the Tories hadn't removed the FTPA, Sunak would likely have been forced out by now. Because they did, he has the power to tell them to shove it. Was that wise?
Long term... YES... of course!
Keep in mind since 1900 the Tories have been in power for around 60-70 years of the previous 124 years.
It is of course in their interests to keep FPTP and also to keep control of the Parliamentary timetable (including the ability for their PMs/leaders to call an election as and when they desire)
1905- 1915. 9 years 5 months 1924 9 months (10 years 2 months) 1929-31 2 years 3 months (12 years 5 months) 1945-51 6 years 3 months (18 years 8 months) 1964-70 5 years 8 months (24 years 4 months) 1974-79 5 years 3 months (29 years 7 months) 1997- 2010. 18 years (47 years 7 months)
I make that around 77 years.
In fact, that's if anything slightly less than I expected it to be. The Conservatives have been an extraordinarily successful political party in electoral terms - more so than just about any other democratic partyin Europe with the possible exception of the Swedish Social Democrats.
Edited because Vanilla weirdly thinks those numbers are phone numbers!
we've been here before in 1997 and also 2005 when they were crushed by a powerful Labour PM and places like Cornwall saw Tory wipeout at hands of Lib Dems.... I think a recovery will be a lot harder, but then again they've really shxt in the well this time
Can anyone give an example of a government with a working majority going to the country early when they don't think they could win it? Does anyone in Sunak's camp think they can win in May? Maybe something might happen between now and January? Unlikely but 1% chance is better than zero.
I agree with you, situations like this where an election is coming where the win won’t be contested is an odd event, 97 being the last example, perhaps 83 the only other similar one I can think of. No one in Sunak’s camp think they can actually win it either in May or Autumn, it’s about averting a meltdown. Conservatism in UK is under serious threat of being supplanted by populism, as has happened in notable continental countries - though associated with the right both these ideologies are so different as to be enemies of each other.
What does good look like for the Tories from here? Climbing from 25% to 31-34% for 160-220 MPs, bad is languishing 23-28% and going sub 150 MPs.
Hope this quick drawing of the picture helps.
Having inherited an understanding and liking of conservatism from my father, I don’t want to see it marginalised, weakened and supplanted by right wing populism in my homeland. This is very disconcerting times the more I think about it. 150 Conservative Party MPs won’t share much with the other 500 MPs in Parliament, so conservatism will be very marginalised. The current polling is in the middle of the 23-28% range, the MRP point to not much more than 100 MPs.
It’s like in F1 qualifying being in the danger zone and needing an excellent last lap to get out of it. There’s no room for anything to go wrong in that lap. That’s why I insist the decision on May or Autumn is very important - it’s not like “it doesn’t really make much difference, Autumn could hardly be worse than this” a lot of the thickest and stupidest PBers are posting.
Already in the drop zone, it’s about how to find that improved lap time, from a clear problem free run.
One Nation Toryism is dead. Brexit killed it and its not coming back at any time soon.
All we have left is a cocktail of Populists spouting unpopular ideas that are only popular amongst their mates on GBNews. Populism always gets wrecked on the rocks of incoherence.
The current Tories deserve a thrashing and look like they are going to get one. I shall dance on their political graves.
Was it pneumonia that was described as the Old Man's Friend? Something that tipped a lot of dying people over the edge?
Suspect Brexit was a bit like that. Proximate cause, yes. But it wouldn't have infected a healthy party. Maybe the problems go back to Maastricht, and a chunk of that was unresolved Maggie 1990 Issues.
Interestingly if the Tories hadn't removed the FTPA, Sunak would likely have been forced out by now. Because they did, he has the power to tell them to shove it. Was that wise?
Long term... YES... of course!
Keep in mind since 1900 the Tories have been in power for around 60-70 years of the previous 124 years.
It is of course in their interests to keep FPTP and also to keep control of the Parliamentary timetable (including the ability for their PMs/leaders to call an election as and when they desire)
1905- 1915. 9 years 5 months 1924 9 months (10 years 2 months) 1929-31 2 years 3 months (12 years 5 months) 1945-51 6 years 3 months (18 years 8 months) 1964-70 5 years 8 months (24 years 4 months) 1974-79 5 years 3 months (29 years 7 months) 1997- 2010. 18 years (47 years 7 months)
I make that around 77 years.
In fact, that's if anything slightly less than I expected it to be. The Conservatives have been an extraordinarily successful political party in electoral terms - more so than just about any other democratic partyin Europe with the possible exception of the Swedish Social Democrats.
Edited because Vanilla weirdly thinks those numbers are phone numbers!
Gah, 13 years on the last one, not 18. Pre-breakfast brain not function.
So 82 years or exactly two-thirds of the period since 1900.
Such a rich banquet of nonsenses for Keir Starmer to choose from at PMQs today.
Why did it take the PM so long to recognise racism? How can people trust his extremism definition? Is there anyone he wouldn’t take money off? Is Kemi working him with a little pedal?
Can anyone give an example of a government with a working majority going to the country early when they don't think they could win it? Does anyone in Sunak's camp think they can win in May? Maybe something might happen between now and January? Unlikely but 1% chance is better than zero.
I agree with you, situations like this where an election is coming where the win won’t be contested is an odd event, 97 being the last example, perhaps 83 the only other similar one I can think of. No one in Sunak’s camp think they can actually win it either in May or Autumn, it’s about averting a meltdown. Conservatism in UK is under serious threat of being supplanted by populism, as has happened in notable continental countries - though associated with the right both these ideologies are so different as to be enemies of each other.
What does good look like for the Tories from here? Climbing from 25% to 31-34% for 160-220 MPs, bad is languishing 23-28% and going sub 150 MPs.
Hope this quick drawing of the picture helps.
Having inherited an understanding and liking of conservatism from my father, I don’t want to see it marginalised, weakened and supplanted by right wing populism in my homeland. This is very disconcerting times the more I think about it. 150 Conservative Party MPs won’t share much with the other 500 MPs in Parliament, so conservatism will be very marginalised. The current polling is in the middle of the 23-28% range, the MRP point to not much more than 100 MPs.
It’s like in F1 qualifying being in the danger zone and needing an excellent last lap to get out of it. There’s no room for anything to go wrong in that lap. That’s why I insist the decision on May or Autumn is very important - it’s not like “it doesn’t really make much difference, Autumn could hardly be worse than this” a lot of the thickest and stupidest PBers are posting.
Already in the drop zone, it’s about how to find that improved lap time, from a clear problem free run.
But Starmer's recent jibe- that the Conservatism of your parent (and mine) is dead- seems pretty accurate.
It's been on the critical list for a while, Johnson was a quack remedy which seemed to work for a bit but left the patient worse, Truss was the coup de grace.
It's a shame, because a lot of its insights are sorely needed. Sound money, eyes to the future and the less fortunate. Openness to the world, rooted in who we uniquely are. One nation, but not intrusively so.
But this half-assed Thatcherite cosplay that looks longingly at the harder right? That thinks Rishi is too wet?
Apart from not wanting Starmer to have too big a majority, is it even worth saving?
This is the most important point: the Tory party (large sections of the parliamentary party emboldened by the membership) did this to themselves. They drove out the Conservatives that held those values.
It wasn't entryism. It wasn't a determined campaign by a resurgent Labour Party to woo the centre right (far from it - this happened when Labour was at its weakest.)
Interestingly if the Tories hadn't removed the FTPA, Sunak would likely have been forced out by now. Because they did, he has the power to tell them to shove it. Was that wise?
Long term... YES... of course!
Keep in mind since 1900 the Tories have been in power for around 60-70 years of the previous 124 years.
It is of course in their interests to keep FPTP and also to keep control of the Parliamentary timetable (including the ability for their PMs/leaders to call an election as and when they desire)
1905- 1915. 9 years 5 months 1924 9 months (10 years 2 months) 1929-31 2 years 3 months (12 years 5 months) 1945-51 6 years 3 months (18 years 8 months) 1964-70 5 years 8 months (24 years 4 months) 1974-79 5 years 3 months (29 years 7 months) 1997- 2010. 18 years (47 years 7 months)
I make that around 77 years.
In fact, that's if anything slightly less than I expected it to be. The Conservatives have been an extraordinarily successful political party in electoral terms - more so than just about any other democratic partyin Europe with the possible exception of the Swedish Social Democrats.
Edited because Vanilla weirdly thinks those numbers are phone numbers!
Gah, 13 years on the last one, not 18. Pre-breakfast brain not function.
So 82 years or exactly two-thirds of the period since 1900.
A great example of Morning Maths, where numbers can appear odd later in the day.
Thanks for that calculation. As can be seen, Conservatives are the natural state for Britain.
(Or the Conservatives leave Britain in a state...)
The most convincing argument for May now seems to be that Sunak won't make it as PM until the end of the year.
Unless you mean Theresa becoming PM over the summer, that's no more convincing an argument for May than it was when Boris threatened to call an early election if the party moved against him.
Can anyone give an example of a government with a working majority going to the country early when they don't think they could win it? Does anyone in Sunak's camp think they can win in May? Maybe something might happen between now and January? Unlikely but 1% chance is better than zero.
I agree with you, situations like this where an election is coming where the win won’t be contested is an odd event, 97 being the last example, perhaps 83 the only other similar one I can think of. No one in Sunak’s camp think they can actually win it either in May or Autumn, it’s about averting a meltdown. Conservatism in UK is under serious threat of being supplanted by populism, as has happened in notable continental countries - though associated with the right both these ideologies are so different as to be enemies of each other.
What does good look like for the Tories from here? Climbing from 25% to 31-34% for 160-220 MPs, bad is languishing 23-28% and going sub 150 MPs.
Hope this quick drawing of the picture helps.
Having inherited an understanding and liking of conservatism from my father, I don’t want to see it marginalised, weakened and supplanted by right wing populism in my homeland. This is very disconcerting times the more I think about it. 150 Conservative Party MPs won’t share much with the other 500 MPs in Parliament, so conservatism will be very marginalised. The current polling is in the middle of the 23-28% range, the MRP point to not much more than 100 MPs.
It’s like in F1 qualifying being in the danger zone and needing an excellent last lap to get out of it. There’s no room for anything to go wrong in that lap. That’s why I insist the decision on May or Autumn is very important - it’s not like “it doesn’t really make much difference, Autumn could hardly be worse than this” a lot of the thickest and stupidest PBers are posting.
Already in the drop zone, it’s about how to find that improved lap time, from a clear problem free run.
But Starmer's recent jibe- that the Conservatism of your parent (and mine) is dead- seems pretty accurate.
It's been on the critical list for a while, Johnson was a quack remedy which seemed to work for a bit but left the patient worse, Truss was the coup de grace.
It's a shame, because a lot of its insights are sorely needed. Sound money, eyes to the future and the less fortunate. Openness to the world, rooted in who we uniquely are. One nation, but not intrusively so.
But this half-assed Thatcherite cosplay that looks longingly at the harder right? That thinks Rishi is too wet?
Apart from not wanting Starmer to have too big a majority, is it even worth saving?
This is the most important point: the Tory party (large sections of the parliamentary party emboldened by the membership) did this to themselves. They drove out the Conservatives that held those values.
It wasn't entryism. It wasn't a determined campaign by a resurgent Labour Party to woo the centre right (far from it - this happened when Labour was at its weakest.)
It was the party itself.
The Conservative Party can recover, as long as their is some sanity. Similar was happening under Labour and Corbyn.
But the Conservatives have two major disadvantages: *) They were in power, not opposition, when they had their madness. This means the madness mattered more. *) Few, if any, mainstream 'Conservatives' seem to want to return to sanity. Unlike Labour in 2015-19.
Can anyone give an example of a government with a working majority going to the country early when they don't think they could win it? Does anyone in Sunak's camp think they can win in May? Maybe something might happen between now and January? Unlikely but 1% chance is better than zero.
The problem with that analysis is no "government with a working majority" has faced the prospect of a Canada style wipeout if they delay too long.
May will be bad.
Autumn will be existential.
This is bollocks.
Autumn is no worse than May, they're doomed either way.
Can anyone give an example of a government with a working majority going to the country early when they don't think they could win it? Does anyone in Sunak's camp think they can win in May? Maybe something might happen between now and January? Unlikely but 1% chance is better than zero.
I agree with you, situations like this where an election is coming where the win won’t be contested is an odd event, 97 being the last example, perhaps 83 the only other similar one I can think of. No one in Sunak’s camp think they can actually win it either in May or Autumn, it’s about averting a meltdown. Conservatism in UK is under serious threat of being supplanted by populism, as has happened in notable continental countries - though associated with the right both these ideologies are so different as to be enemies of each other.
What does good look like for the Tories from here? Climbing from 25% to 31-34% for 160-220 MPs, bad is languishing 23-28% and going sub 150 MPs.
Hope this quick drawing of the picture helps.
Having inherited an understanding and liking of conservatism from my father, I don’t want to see it marginalised, weakened and supplanted by right wing populism in my homeland. This is very disconcerting times the more I think about it. 150 Conservative Party MPs won’t share much with the other 500 MPs in Parliament, so conservatism will be very marginalised. The current polling is in the middle of the 23-28% range, the MRP point to not much more than 100 MPs.
It’s like in F1 qualifying being in the danger zone and needing an excellent last lap to get out of it. There’s no room for anything to go wrong in that lap. That’s why I insist the decision on May or Autumn is very important - it’s not like “it doesn’t really make much difference, Autumn could hardly be worse than this” a lot of the thickest and stupidest PBers are posting.
Already in the drop zone, it’s about how to find that improved lap time, from a clear problem free run.
But Starmer's recent jibe- that the Conservatism of your parent (and mine) is dead- seems pretty accurate.
It's been on the critical list for a while, Johnson was a quack remedy which seemed to work for a bit but left the patient worse, Truss was the coup de grace.
It's a shame, because a lot of its insights are sorely needed. Sound money, eyes to the future and the less fortunate. Openness to the world, rooted in who we uniquely are. One nation, but not intrusively so.
But this half-assed Thatcherite cosplay that looks longingly at the harder right? That thinks Rishi is too wet?
Apart from not wanting Starmer to have too big a majority, is it even worth saving?
This is the most important point: the Tory party (large sections of the parliamentary party emboldened by the membership) did this to themselves. They drove out the Conservatives that held those values.
It wasn't entryism. It wasn't a determined campaign by a resurgent Labour Party to woo the centre right (far from it - this happened when Labour was at its weakest.)
It was the party itself.
The Conservative Party can recover, as long as their is some sanity. Similar was happening under Labour and Corbyn.
But the Conservatives have two major disadvantages: *) They were in power, not opposition, when they had their madness. This means the madness mattered more. *) Few, if any, mainstream 'Conservatives' seem to want to return to sanity. Unlike Labour in 2015-19.
Labour had a large body of MPs and activists who wanted to work to get the party back from the Corbynite wing. They also (AFAICT?) didn't have a huge disagreement with much of the policy platform, on an ideological level, just on a practical one.
It was narrowly divided, there was a problem of entryism and many issues bubbled to the surface.
But also Labour had an institutional memory of how to deal with this from the 1970s and 1980s and the party management never totally fell apart.
I would be fascinated to hear how that was all achieved so I hope I live long enough for the less self-serving histories to be written about it.
Can anyone give an example of a government with a working majority going to the country early when they don't think they could win it? Does anyone in Sunak's camp think they can win in May? Maybe something might happen between now and January? Unlikely but 1% chance is better than zero.
The problem with that analysis is no "government with a working majority" has faced the prospect of a Canada style wipeout if they delay too long.
May will be bad.
Autumn will be existential.
This is bollocks.
Autumn is no worse than May, they're doomed either way.
Can anyone give an example of a government with a working majority going to the country early when they don't think they could win it? Does anyone in Sunak's camp think they can win in May? Maybe something might happen between now and January? Unlikely but 1% chance is better than zero.
The problem with that analysis is no "government with a working majority" has faced the prospect of a Canada style wipeout if they delay too long.
May will be bad.
Autumn will be existential.
This is bollocks.
Autumn is no worse than May, they're doomed either way.
Well there's doomed and then there's DOOMED.
Yes but what's changing allegedly between May and Autumn to make them any more DOOMED?
The only people who are calling for a May election are acting like kids who wish for an early Christmas as they want their presents sooner.
Having inherited an understanding and liking of conservatism from my father, I don’t want to see it marginalised, weakened and supplanted by right wing populism in my homeland. This is very disconcerting times the more I think about it. 150 Conservative Party MPs won’t share much with the other 500 MPs in Parliament, so conservatism will be very marginalised. The current polling is in the middle of the 23-28% range, the MRP point to not much more than 100 MPs.
Why the fuck does Sunak give a tomato skin laden shit about any of that? Weighed in the balance of being PM for another 6-8 months, the richly deserved fate of the tory party means nothing.
Why the fuck does Sunak give a tomato skin laden shit about any of that? Weighed in the balance of being PM for another 6-8 months, the richly deserved fate of the tory party means nothing.
Can anyone give an example of a government with a working majority going to the country early when they don't think they could win it? Does anyone in Sunak's camp think they can win in May? Maybe something might happen between now and January? Unlikely but 1% chance is better than zero.
The problem with that analysis is no "government with a working majority" has faced the prospect of a Canada style wipeout if they delay too long.
May will be bad.
Autumn will be existential.
This is bollocks.
Autumn is no worse than May, they're doomed either way.
Well there's doomed and then there's DOOMED.
It's all getting a bit Russian Muzhik asked how things are going:
"It's worse than yesterday, but not as bad as it will be tommorow".
Can anyone give an example of a government with a working majority going to the country early when they don't think they could win it? Does anyone in Sunak's camp think they can win in May? Maybe something might happen between now and January? Unlikely but 1% chance is better than zero.
The problem with that analysis is no "government with a working majority" has faced the prospect of a Canada style wipeout if they delay too long.
May will be bad.
Autumn will be existential.
This is bollocks.
Autumn is no worse than May, they're doomed either way.
Well there's doomed and then there's DOOMED.
Yes but what's changing allegedly between May and Autumn to make them any more DOOMED?
The only people who are calling for a May election are acting like kids who wish for an early Christmas as they want their presents sooner.
It's not happening. It's never happening.
While I broadly agree with you - the levels are largely set - one thing that happens between May and Autumn *is* the May local elections. They are likely to have a very negative impact on constituency activists, and the Tories need a strong ground campaign at the GE to avoid coming at the bottom end of their current range.
Can anyone give an example of a government with a working majority going to the country early when they don't think they could win it? Does anyone in Sunak's camp think they can win in May? Maybe something might happen between now and January? Unlikely but 1% chance is better than zero.
I agree with you, situations like this where an election is coming where the win won’t be contested is an odd event, 97 being the last example, perhaps 83 the only other similar one I can think of. No one in Sunak’s camp think they can actually win it either in May or Autumn, it’s about averting a meltdown. Conservatism in UK is under serious threat of being supplanted by populism, as has happened in notable continental countries - though associated with the right both these ideologies are so different as to be enemies of each other.
What does good look like for the Tories from here? Climbing from 25% to 31-34% for 160-220 MPs, bad is languishing 23-28% and going sub 150 MPs.
Hope this quick drawing of the picture helps.
Having inherited an understanding and liking of conservatism from my father, I don’t want to see it marginalised, weakened and supplanted by right wing populism in my homeland. This is very disconcerting times the more I think about it. 150 Conservative Party MPs won’t share much with the other 500 MPs in Parliament, so conservatism will be very marginalised. The current polling is in the middle of the 23-28% range, the MRP point to not much more than 100 MPs.
It’s like in F1 qualifying being in the danger zone and needing an excellent last lap to get out of it. There’s no room for anything to go wrong in that lap. That’s why I insist the decision on May or Autumn is very important - it’s not like “it doesn’t really make much difference, Autumn could hardly be worse than this” a lot of the thickest and stupidest PBers are posting.
Already in the drop zone, it’s about how to find that improved lap time, from a clear problem free run.
But Starmer's recent jibe- that the Conservatism of your parent (and mine) is dead- seems pretty accurate.
It's been on the critical list for a while, Johnson was a quack remedy which seemed to work for a bit but left the patient worse, Truss was the coup de grace.
It's a shame, because a lot of its insights are sorely needed. Sound money, eyes to the future and the less fortunate. Openness to the world, rooted in who we uniquely are. One nation, but not intrusively so.
But this half-assed Thatcherite cosplay that looks longingly at the harder right? That thinks Rishi is too wet?
Apart from not wanting Starmer to have too big a majority, is it even worth saving?
This is the most important point: the Tory party (large sections of the parliamentary party emboldened by the membership) did this to themselves. They drove out the Conservatives that held those values.
It wasn't entryism. It wasn't a determined campaign by a resurgent Labour Party to woo the centre right (far from it - this happened when Labour was at its weakest.)
It was the party itself.
The Conservative Party can recover, as long as their is some sanity. Similar was happening under Labour and Corbyn.
But the Conservatives have two major disadvantages: *) They were in power, not opposition, when they had their madness. This means the madness mattered more. *) Few, if any, mainstream 'Conservatives' seem to want to return to sanity. Unlike Labour in 2015-19.
Johnson purged the sane Tories in a way that Corbyn didn't purge the sane Labourites.
But, I still expect the Tories to recover, after a period in the wilderness. It would need a strong centre/centre-right party to be in a position to replace them after meltdown - the LDs are not that and there's no one else at present.
Decision Desk HQ projects Donald Trump wins the Washington Republican Primary and has won enough delegates to secure the Republican Nomination for President
Let’s just pray he wins the presidency. Or the West is finished
Can anyone give an example of a government with a working majority going to the country early when they don't think they could win it? Does anyone in Sunak's camp think they can win in May? Maybe something might happen between now and January? Unlikely but 1% chance is better than zero.
I agree with you, situations like this where an election is coming where the win won’t be contested is an odd event, 97 being the last example, perhaps 83 the only other similar one I can think of. No one in Sunak’s camp think they can actually win it either in May or Autumn, it’s about averting a meltdown. Conservatism in UK is under serious threat of being supplanted by populism, as has happened in notable continental countries - though associated with the right both these ideologies are so different as to be enemies of each other.
What does good look like for the Tories from here? Climbing from 25% to 31-34% for 160-220 MPs, bad is languishing 23-28% and going sub 150 MPs.
Hope this quick drawing of the picture helps.
Having inherited an understanding and liking of conservatism from my father, I don’t want to see it marginalised, weakened and supplanted by right wing populism in my homeland. This is very disconcerting times the more I think about it. 150 Conservative Party MPs won’t share much with the other 500 MPs in Parliament, so conservatism will be very marginalised. The current polling is in the middle of the 23-28% range, the MRP point to not much more than 100 MPs.
It’s like in F1 qualifying being in the danger zone and needing an excellent last lap to get out of it. There’s no room for anything to go wrong in that lap. That’s why I insist the decision on May or Autumn is very important - it’s not like “it doesn’t really make much difference, Autumn could hardly be worse than this” a lot of the thickest and stupidest PBers are posting.
Already in the drop zone, it’s about how to find that improved lap time, from a clear problem free run.
But Starmer's recent jibe- that the Conservatism of your parent (and mine) is dead- seems pretty accurate.
It's been on the critical list for a while, Johnson was a quack remedy which seemed to work for a bit but left the patient worse, Truss was the coup de grace.
It's a shame, because a lot of its insights are sorely needed. Sound money, eyes to the future and the less fortunate. Openness to the world, rooted in who we uniquely are. One nation, but not intrusively so.
But this half-assed Thatcherite cosplay that looks longingly at the harder right? That thinks Rishi is too wet?
Apart from not wanting Starmer to have too big a majority, is it even worth saving?
This is the most important point: the Tory party (large sections of the parliamentary party emboldened by the membership) did this to themselves. They drove out the Conservatives that held those values.
It wasn't entryism. It wasn't a determined campaign by a resurgent Labour Party to woo the centre right (far from it - this happened when Labour was at its weakest.)
It was the party itself.
The Conservative Party can recover, as long as their is some sanity. Similar was happening under Labour and Corbyn.
But the Conservatives have two major disadvantages: *) They were in power, not opposition, when they had their madness. This means the madness mattered more. *) Few, if any, mainstream 'Conservatives' seem to want to return to sanity. Unlike Labour in 2015-19.
Johnson purged the sane Tories in a way that Corbyn didn't purge the sane Labourites.
But, I still expect the Tories to recover, after a period in the wilderness. It would need a strong centre/centre-right party to be in a position to replace them after meltdown - the LDs are not that and there's no one else at present.
the pensioner vote, driven by nostalgia, protected wealth and irrational fears will keep the Blues alive (not to mention big business ie housebuilders which absolutely love the Tories)
Decision Desk HQ projects Donald Trump wins the Washington Republican Primary and has won enough delegates to secure the Republican Nomination for President
Let’s just pray he wins the presidency. Or the West is finished
Never knowingly short of hyperbole
If Trump wins, NATO falls and the EU and the US go their separate ways. That is the fall of "The West". Your "boy who cried woke" is is just right wing tosh.
You define “the West” as NATO? What does “Western civilisation” mean in that case?
I’d suggest a definition includes democracy and the rule of law, two things Trump opposes.
That definition rules out quite a lot of Western history. Was France not Western during the renovation of Paris?
Can anyone give an example of a government with a working majority going to the country early when they don't think they could win it? Does anyone in Sunak's camp think they can win in May? Maybe something might happen between now and January? Unlikely but 1% chance is better than zero.
I agree with you, situations like this where an election is coming where the win won’t be contested is an odd event, 97 being the last example, perhaps 83 the only other similar one I can think of. No one in Sunak’s camp think they can actually win it either in May or Autumn, it’s about averting a meltdown. Conservatism in UK is under serious threat of being supplanted by populism, as has happened in notable continental countries - though associated with the right both these ideologies are so different as to be enemies of each other.
What does good look like for the Tories from here? Climbing from 25% to 31-34% for 160-220 MPs, bad is languishing 23-28% and going sub 150 MPs.
Hope this quick drawing of the picture helps.
Having inherited an understanding and liking of conservatism from my father, I don’t want to see it marginalised, weakened and supplanted by right wing populism in my homeland. This is very disconcerting times the more I think about it. 150 Conservative Party MPs won’t share much with the other 500 MPs in Parliament, so conservatism will be very marginalised. The current polling is in the middle of the 23-28% range, the MRP point to not much more than 100 MPs.
It’s like in F1 qualifying being in the danger zone and needing an excellent last lap to get out of it. There’s no room for anything to go wrong in that lap. That’s why I insist the decision on May or Autumn is very important - it’s not like “it doesn’t really make much difference, Autumn could hardly be worse than this” a lot of the thickest and stupidest PBers are posting.
Already in the drop zone, it’s about how to find that improved lap time, from a clear problem free run.
But Starmer's recent jibe- that the Conservatism of your parent (and mine) is dead- seems pretty accurate.
It's been on the critical list for a while, Johnson was a quack remedy which seemed to work for a bit but left the patient worse, Truss was the coup de grace.
It's a shame, because a lot of its insights are sorely needed. Sound money, eyes to the future and the less fortunate. Openness to the world, rooted in who we uniquely are. One nation, but not intrusively so.
But this half-assed Thatcherite cosplay that looks longingly at the harder right? That thinks Rishi is too wet?
Apart from not wanting Starmer to have too big a majority, is it even worth saving?
This is the most important point: the Tory party (large sections of the parliamentary party emboldened by the membership) did this to themselves. They drove out the Conservatives that held those values.
It wasn't entryism. It wasn't a determined campaign by a resurgent Labour Party to woo the centre right (far from it - this happened when Labour was at its weakest.)
It was the party itself.
The Conservative Party can recover, as long as their is some sanity. Similar was happening under Labour and Corbyn.
But the Conservatives have two major disadvantages: *) They were in power, not opposition, when they had their madness. This means the madness mattered more. *) Few, if any, mainstream 'Conservatives' seem to want to return to sanity. Unlike Labour in 2015-19.
Johnson purged the sane Tories in a way that Corbyn didn't purge the sane Labourites.
But, I still expect the Tories to recover, after a period in the wilderness. It would need a strong centre/centre-right party to be in a position to replace them after meltdown - the LDs are not that and there's no one else at present.
The LD campaign is subterranean, though might get a boost from a good show at the Locals.
Daveys GE strategy is on specific seats, and on light green issues such as farming and sewage in rivers. Its a pretty unambitious programme really, but probably will work against the alternatives.
Can anyone give an example of a government with a working majority going to the country early when they don't think they could win it? Does anyone in Sunak's camp think they can win in May? Maybe something might happen between now and January? Unlikely but 1% chance is better than zero.
The problem with that analysis is no "government with a working majority" has faced the prospect of a Canada style wipeout if they delay too long.
May will be bad.
Autumn will be existential.
This is bollocks.
Autumn is no worse than May, they're doomed either way.
Well there's doomed and then there's DOOMED.
Yes but what's changing allegedly between May and Autumn to make them any more DOOMED?
The only people who are calling for a May election are acting like kids who wish for an early Christmas as they want their presents sooner.
It's not happening. It's never happening.
The Grim Reaper will do some more reaping.
More people will have had a nasty remortgage shock.
Boats won't have been stopped.
Those three are for sure.
It's also pretty likely that some more bits of the public sector will fall over.
I suspect that the skittish mood the Conservatives are in will not play out to their advantage.
The Conservatives of 2032 or so would thank Rishi for going now and saving a bit more furniture. But no, I don't think it's going to happen.
Alan Clark always liked the idea of a proper Wagnerian ending. He may be about to get his wish.
Interestingly if the Tories hadn't removed the FTPA, Sunak would likely have been forced out by now. Because they did, he has the power to tell them to shove it. Was that wise?
Long term... YES... of course!
Keep in mind since 1900 the Tories have been in power for around 60-70 years of the previous 124 years.
It is of course in their interests to keep FPTP and also to keep control of the Parliamentary timetable (including the ability for their PMs/leaders to call an election as and when they desire)
1905- 1915. 9 years 5 months 1924 9 months (10 years 2 months) 1929-31 2 years 3 months (12 years 5 months) 1945-51 6 years 3 months (18 years 8 months) 1964-70 5 years 8 months (24 years 4 months) 1974-79 5 years 3 months (29 years 7 months) 1997- 2010. 18 years (47 years 7 months)
I make that around 77 years.
In fact, that's if anything slightly less than I expected it to be. The Conservatives have been an extraordinarily successful political party in electoral terms - more so than just about any other democratic partyin Europe with the possible exception of the Swedish Social Democrats.
Edited because Vanilla weirdly thinks those numbers are phone numbers!
Gah, 13 years on the last one, not 18. Pre-breakfast brain not function.
So 82 years or exactly two-thirds of the period since 1900.
A great example of Morning Maths, where numbers can appear odd later in the day.
Thanks for that calculation. As can be seen, Conservatives are the natural state for Britain.
(Or the Conservatives leave Britain in a state...)
Yes. The Britain of today is largely the consequence of Conservative government. Right-wingers not happy with what they've achieved should look more closely at their own mistakes, rather than blaming everything on the Left.
Can anyone give an example of a government with a working majority going to the country early when they don't think they could win it? Does anyone in Sunak's camp think they can win in May? Maybe something might happen between now and January? Unlikely but 1% chance is better than zero.
I agree with you, situations like this where an election is coming where the win won’t be contested is an odd event, 97 being the last example, perhaps 83 the only other similar one I can think of. No one in Sunak’s camp think they can actually win it either in May or Autumn, it’s about averting a meltdown. Conservatism in UK is under serious threat of being supplanted by populism, as has happened in notable continental countries - though associated with the right both these ideologies are so different as to be enemies of each other.
What does good look like for the Tories from here? Climbing from 25% to 31-34% for 160-220 MPs, bad is languishing 23-28% and going sub 150 MPs.
Hope this quick drawing of the picture helps.
Having inherited an understanding and liking of conservatism from my father, I don’t want to see it marginalised, weakened and supplanted by right wing populism in my homeland. This is very disconcerting times the more I think about it. 150 Conservative Party MPs won’t share much with the other 500 MPs in Parliament, so conservatism will be very marginalised. The current polling is in the middle of the 23-28% range, the MRP point to not much more than 100 MPs.
It’s like in F1 qualifying being in the danger zone and needing an excellent last lap to get out of it. There’s no room for anything to go wrong in that lap. That’s why I insist the decision on May or Autumn is very important - it’s not like “it doesn’t really make much difference, Autumn could hardly be worse than this” a lot of the thickest and stupidest PBers are posting.
Already in the drop zone, it’s about how to find that improved lap time, from a clear problem free run.
But Starmer's recent jibe- that the Conservatism of your parent (and mine) is dead- seems pretty accurate.
It's been on the critical list for a while, Johnson was a quack remedy which seemed to work for a bit but left the patient worse, Truss was the coup de grace.
It's a shame, because a lot of its insights are sorely needed. Sound money, eyes to the future and the less fortunate. Openness to the world, rooted in who we uniquely are. One nation, but not intrusively so.
But this half-assed Thatcherite cosplay that looks longingly at the harder right? That thinks Rishi is too wet?
Apart from not wanting Starmer to have too big a majority, is it even worth saving?
This is the most important point: the Tory party (large sections of the parliamentary party emboldened by the membership) did this to themselves. They drove out the Conservatives that held those values.
It wasn't entryism. It wasn't a determined campaign by a resurgent Labour Party to woo the centre right (far from it - this happened when Labour was at its weakest.)
It was the party itself.
The Conservative Party can recover, as long as their is some sanity. Similar was happening under Labour and Corbyn.
But the Conservatives have two major disadvantages: *) They were in power, not opposition, when they had their madness. This means the madness mattered more. *) Few, if any, mainstream 'Conservatives' seem to want to return to sanity. Unlike Labour in 2015-19.
Johnson purged the sane Tories in a way that Corbyn didn't purge the sane Labourites.
But, I still expect the Tories to recover, after a period in the wilderness. It would need a strong centre/centre-right party to be in a position to replace them after meltdown - the LDs are not that and there's no one else at present.
The LD campaign is subterranean, though might get a boost from a good show at the Locals.
Daveys GE strategy is on specific seats, and on light green issues such as farming and sewage in rivers. Its a pretty unambitious programme really, but probably will work against the alternatives.
Yes, probably get a solid result. But if the LDs were in a 2010 (strong base, charismatic leader) situation then we could be talking seriously about whether the cons could slip to 3rd. Probably still not likely, but you could see a route to it happening. But they're not.
Why the fuck does Sunak give a tomato skin laden shit about any of that? Weighed in the balance of being PM for another 6-8 months, the richly deserved fate of the tory party means nothing.
He won't be PM for another 6-8 months
Who then leads the election campaign? A rabid right-winger or a one nation branded PM? I favour Mordaunt, but I suspect Badenoch has pressed all the right buttons. Still it could be the Cruella/ Honest Bob dream team. Or could we shoehorn Johnson into Clacton and wait for the landslide?
Can anyone give an example of a government with a working majority going to the country early when they don't think they could win it? Does anyone in Sunak's camp think they can win in May? Maybe something might happen between now and January? Unlikely but 1% chance is better than zero.
The problem with that analysis is no "government with a working majority" has faced the prospect of a Canada style wipeout if they delay too long.
May will be bad.
Autumn will be existential.
This is bollocks.
Autumn is no worse than May, they're doomed either way.
Well there's doomed and then there's DOOMED.
Yes but what's changing allegedly between May and Autumn to make them any more DOOMED?
The only people who are calling for a May election are acting like kids who wish for an early Christmas as they want their presents sooner.
It's not happening. It's never happening.
Some people here, last week, were even claiming Sunak was bottling it by not going for a May election which is, aside from reheating poor labour attack lines, just not the case.
"February 2024 in #Colombia was another record hot month,like the last 9 (left map). Records of high temperatures have been falling all the time. But this month was also much wetter than normal (right map) in western and northern areas.(right map). Maps are courtesy of IDEAM"
Comments
Suggest a Shortening Of The Way, and earnest and honest fellows will appear to defend each of the many points on the road.
Each item is worthy, yet their sum is inaction.
The football, granted. But will it make any difference to polling? Er, not likely.
There are folks who either didn't get a ballot in the mail (perhaps their registration is inactive), or lost it, or want to register so they can vote today in either Democratic or Republican presidential primary.
In other sections of election HQ workers are processing ballots, for example checking voter signatures, and scanning ballots that have been validated into the tabulation system.
BIG wrinkle for presidential primary, is requirement that voters declare a party preference in order to vote in that party's pres primary (one only). Which means a lot more checking, sorting, double-checking and hence processing time, labor and expense.
Results from King County and WA's 38 other counties will be posted starting after 8pm PDT.
The head of the Metropolitan Police, Britain's biggest police force, has criticised "armchair commentators" who film on-duty officers.
Commissioner Sir Mark Rowley claimed the prospect of frequently being filmed and critiqued on social media might put off future police recruits.
Writing on LinkedIn, he said: "The reality is that policing is complex, challenging and can look messy."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-68533904
I'm sure it is not easy for them, but isn't the easy solution (if not already implemented) that the police wear body cams? They then don't need to worry about some spod with a smartphone catching something out of context.
The last couple of years, and struggle of governments even with huge majorities to do anything may have unduly influenced me here, but it feels like the general expectation now is that everything is too difficult to solve. Not just the big stuff, but even small and simple things like potholes. Never enough money despite high taxes, and nothing can done swiftly or easily.
But I have sort of changed my mind in this evolving situation. I’m not sure the surge in boat crossings is the biggest vote loser problem for the outgoing government, that will make the result worse for them in autumn compared to April campaign. I now think the big problem is just the existence of a government falling apart and not even doing anything with the extra 7 months, just still being there now the biggest vote loser for Tories that’s going to happen this summer?
The story is turning into how the government is disintegrating, into a sort of mess - what and when is going to change this narrative? How long is such a narrative sustainable? The mistake I may have made in my analysis is presuming Sunak and the government had a choice between May 2nd and Autumn, but as Boris Johnson said as he resigned, when the herd moves, you don’t have a choice.
Maybe in this instance the British Electorate are “the herd” - and everything points to them on the move?
When Harry Cole writes “go now, stem the bleed” is that the realisation of “we no longer have a choice” some of them have?
Reckon "the herd" here, is Tory caucus at Westminster, frantically scurrying toward the White Cliffs of Dover.
One way of getting at those pesky boats?
So wise or not they are getting what they wanted, and so criticisms from either internal or external opposition to Sunak game playing is a bit hypocritical when allowing it was the plan.
EDIT - Ok, with just over 6k counted (but from where?) Trump 93.0%, Haley 4.7%
Keep in mind since 1900 the Tories have been in power for around 60-70 years of the previous 124 years.
It is of course in their interests to keep FPTP and also to keep control of the Parliamentary timetable (including the ability for their PMs/leaders to call an election as and when they desire)
Look at the Wiki graph, same depth as Truss plunged, just reached in a more slow motion car crash. Do Rishi and the government even still have a choice of squatting another 7 months, bleeding more votes all the time?
Someone brought that point of view to the bust up 1922 had with the top of the government this evening - If “disintegrating government just squatting there” is the biggest vote losing narrative over these 7 months, no choice but to go now - what is the counter argument which beats it? What stops the bleeding of votes, what wins votes back into meaningful swingback? Better news on economy? A further income tax/IHT tax cutting budget? Win Euro’s and get lots of gold medals? Stopping the boats and reducing immigration? Deploy Boris? Oil drilling, gas plants and fracking?
What is going to more the dial?
AND Haley is only trailing by 47% to 50% for Trump in neighboring Fulton Co (Atlanta).
But, to your point, I think the problem is that groups become over oppositional. The Democrats under Obama did a generally excellent job on the Southern Border. But once Trump made a big deal (ironically while allowing numbers ton soar) of migrants at the border, then the a Democrats found themselves opposing it because it was Trump.
And that opposition was stupid and wrong, and has had serious consequences.
With that said... I would suggest that a lot of the things that the Biden administration is now doing are pretty effective. Stopping the crossings at the Darien Gap is a hell of a lot easier than stopping them at the Mexican border.
Decision Desk HQ projects Donald Trump wins the Washington Republican Primary and has won enough delegates to secure the Republican Nomination for President
What does good look like for the Tories from here? Climbing from 25% to 31-34% for 160-220 MPs, bad is languishing 23-28% and going sub 150 MPs.
Hope this quick drawing of the picture helps.
It’s like in F1 qualifying being in the danger zone and needing an excellent last lap to get out of it. There’s no room for anything to go wrong in that lap. That’s why I insist the decision on May or Autumn is very important - it’s not like “it doesn’t really make much difference, Autumn could hardly be worse than this” a lot of the thickest and stupidest PBers are posting.
Already in the drop zone, it’s about how to find that improved lap time, from a clear problem free run.
Many African languages have either no word for the future tense, or only one which is usually a nebulous concept.
What they often have are several different ways of expressing what impoverished Europeans refer to as the present.
For example, in one part of central Africa that I know there are three different tenses for whether someone is dead.
1. They are in the process of dying.
2. They are dying right now
3. They have finished dying
These subtle differences have come about because they are more connected with the processes involved, closer to the reality.
As for the future, why have a tense for something you might not live to see? Sufficient unto the day are the troubles thereof. Live for the day and if you’re do happen still to be alive the following day, that’s for living in the now.
The issue is more that it’s a miserable month. Many people consider it the worst month of the year. It’s neither autumn nor Christmas. It’s often wet, heating costs are rising, and there’s not a lot to look forward to.
I do think we, and this may well include CCHQ, have been lulled into thinking winter elections are fine because of the one-off ‘Get Brexit Done’ vote. The tories are making a mistake if they assume just because that one worked, it can do so again.
They would be well advised to go to the country before the clocks go back. But whatever date they hold it, they’re going to be hammered.
Solely so that Trump can say the border is a problem at the next election.
On that note, this is a great rant about the Hastert Rule, which the GOP leadership is using to block.a vote.
The informal Hastert rule is a bastardization brought about by our two party system and it needs to die.
In the early 2000s it’s the reason why immigration reform wasn’t passed (GOPs controlled the house then by the way).
This whole idea of the majority needing support of the majority party is bullshit. If 200 dems and 75 Republicans support a bill, the majority isn’t the majority party who runs speaker. It’s counter to democratic values for any party to follow this unwritten rule. The majority is always the side with the most votes regardless of party affiliation. And it wouldn’t even be a thing if we had a multi party system. All the more reason we need independents and strong non dem/GOP parties in our government. Currently these bullshit informal type rules prevent compromise.
Also Hastert is a pedo who used hush money to hide his sex assault bullshit. Maybe it’s not a good idea to follow in his footsteps. I guess we can give kudos for “god fearing”Johnson following a pedo and criminal example.
I’d like to remind people 41 character statements were accepted(they were made public to be accepted) and more were withdrawn to avoid backlash on politicians. And instead of getting justice, he was sentenced to a mild prison sentence compared to what he should have received.
The truth may have been revealed, but justice wasn’t served. (He also still receives a congressional pension which is fucked)
https://twitter.com/IhateTrenches/status/1767772986487050657
All we have left is a cocktail of Populists spouting unpopular ideas that are only popular amongst their mates on GBNews. Populism always gets wrecked on the rocks of incoherence.
The current Tories deserve a thrashing and look like they are going to get one. I shall dance on their political graves.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hastert_rule
The Hastert rule, also known as the "majority of the majority" rule, is an informal governing principle used in the United States by Republican Speakers of the House of Representatives since the mid-1990s to maintain their speakerships[1] and limit the power of the minority party to bring bills up for a vote on the floor of the House.[2] Under the doctrine, the speaker will not allow a floor vote on a bill unless a majority of the majority party supports the bill...
Imagine if there were a "Paedo MP rule" the conservatives had introduced in the Commons to prevent any opposition motions ever being voted on.
That would be our equivalent.
If it gets 218 signatures then the House of Representatives will vote on the Bill.
Apparently a few Democrats won't sign as the Bill also includes aid for Israel. So approx 10 Republican signatures will be needed.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/can-ukraine-supporters-force-us-house-vote-foreign-aid-2024-03-12/#:~:text=The House "discharge rule,",Research Service , opens new tab.
Ukraine's future greatly depends on the vote.
I don't think he can last to Autumn if he tries to.
Bloody-hell ...
Does anyone know anything about any of them? Especially Rhea Keehn.
For some reason Newark is missing.
May will be bad.
Autumn will be existential.
That 25% or so of voters saying they’ll vote Conservative even now seems unlikely to switch to Labour. Ref are already on 12-13%. I think we’re at the Tory nadir. It just happens to be a very low nadir.
It's been on the critical list for a while, Johnson was a quack remedy which seemed to work for a bit but left the patient worse, Truss was the coup de grace.
It's a shame, because a lot of its insights are sorely needed. Sound money, eyes to the future and the less fortunate. Openness to the world, rooted in who we uniquely are. One nation, but not intrusively so.
But this half-assed Thatcherite cosplay that looks longingly at the harder right? That thinks Rishi is too wet?
Apart from not wanting Starmer to have too big a majority, is it even worth saving?
1924 9 months (10 years 2 months)
1929-31 2 years 3 months (12 years 5 months)
1945-51 6 years 3 months (18 years 8 months)
1964-70 5 years 8 months (24 years 4 months)
1974-79 5 years 3 months (29 years 7 months)
1997- 2010. 18 years (47 years 7 months)
I make that around 77 years.
In fact, that's if anything slightly less than I expected it to be. The Conservatives have been an extraordinarily successful political party in electoral terms - more so than just about any other democratic partyin Europe with the possible exception of the Swedish Social Democrats.
Edited because Vanilla weirdly thinks those numbers are phone numbers!
Suspect Brexit was a bit like that. Proximate cause, yes. But it wouldn't have infected a healthy party. Maybe the problems go back to Maastricht, and a chunk of that was unresolved Maggie 1990 Issues.
So 82 years or exactly two-thirds of the period since 1900.
1. Brexit is a great idea
2. BoZo will be a great PM
Is it any wonder they are shit?
It is also no coincidence that the one minister who is not universally derided is David Cameron, who famously answered no to both questions...
On both those occasions the Conservative and Unionist Party suffered a defeat and recovered.
This time the Brexit and BoZo Party is about to get annihilated.
Such a rich banquet of nonsenses for Keir Starmer to choose from at PMQs today.
Why did it take the PM so long to recognise racism? How can people trust his extremism definition? Is there anyone he wouldn’t take money off? Is Kemi working him with a little pedal?
It wasn't entryism. It wasn't a determined campaign by a resurgent Labour Party to woo the centre right (far from it - this happened when Labour was at its weakest.)
It was the party itself.
Thanks for that calculation. As can be seen, Conservatives are the natural state for Britain.
(Or the Conservatives leave Britain in a state...)
But the Conservatives have two major disadvantages:
*) They were in power, not opposition, when they had their madness. This means the madness mattered more.
*) Few, if any, mainstream 'Conservatives' seem to want to return to sanity. Unlike Labour in 2015-19.
Autumn is no worse than May, they're doomed either way.
It was narrowly divided, there was a problem of entryism and many issues bubbled to the surface.
But also Labour had an institutional memory of how to deal with this from the 1970s and 1980s and the party management never totally fell apart.
I would be fascinated to hear how that was all achieved so I hope I live long enough for the less self-serving histories to be written about it.
The only people who are calling for a May election are acting like kids who wish for an early Christmas as they want their presents sooner.
It's not happening. It's never happening.
"It's worse than yesterday, but not as bad as it will be tommorow".
But, I still expect the Tories to recover, after a period in the wilderness. It would need a strong centre/centre-right party to be in a position to replace them after meltdown - the LDs are not that and there's no one else at present.
Daveys GE strategy is on specific seats, and on light green issues such as farming and sewage in rivers. Its a pretty unambitious programme really, but probably will work against the alternatives.
More people will have had a nasty remortgage shock.
Boats won't have been stopped.
Those three are for sure.
It's also pretty likely that some more bits of the public sector will fall over.
I suspect that the skittish mood the Conservatives are in will not play out to their advantage.
The Conservatives of 2032 or so would thank Rishi for going now and saving a bit more furniture. But no, I don't think it's going to happen.
Alan Clark always liked the idea of a proper Wagnerian ending. He may be about to get his wish.
"February 2024 in #Colombia was another record hot month,like the last 9 (left map).
Records of high temperatures have been falling all the time.
But this month was also much wetter than normal (right map) in western and northern areas.(right map).
Maps are courtesy of IDEAM"
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1767806694841623016?t=QIfZMe_yIq-CB45g1cjl5w&s=19
I think there is some validity to seeing these places before climate change makes them uninhabitable.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/michael-culver-obituary/ar-BB1jLWzl?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=f6e7ad88f2694c49a7c8d1b2042d80b6&ei=10
https://www.radiotimes.com/tv/sci-fi/doctor-who-steven-moffat-2024-christmas-newsupdate/