@Dura_Ace posted a link to this story on the previous thread but I'm not sure it registered. Following on from his gaffe about meeting Mitterrand at the G7, he's now been referring to Helmut Kohl.
These are not just mix-ups but signs that he doesn't know what decade it is. He's simply not a viable candidate for four more years as president.
President Joe Biden on Wednesday twice referred to the late German chancellor Helmut Kohl instead of former Chancellor Angela Merkel while detailing a 2021 conversation at campaign events.
It was the second time this week that Biden had recalled speaking with a European leader who had died years earlier.
He has the right country though. Trump thinks Orban runs Turkey.
Orban;Erdogan … easily mixed up.
Both shits, though Erdogan an ever so slightly less unreliable ally. With slightly more justification for his delusions of grandeur.
Though they do have the advantage that they are both still alive. Mitterrand and Kohl not so much.
He's harking back to a better time. Many will empathise.
I wouldnt see the Soviet Union fuelled cold war as better times.
For America the 80s and 90s were less troubled times than today, I'd say.
Firstly, Ipsos MORI gave Johnson the worst ratings just before the 2019 election. Deltapoll actually had him at +2% net favourable, but around -10% was more typical than the Ipsos number. So he wasn't "popular" net but was probably in a better place than the quoted poll indicated. Although it should be noted Ipsos just seem a bit harsher on favourability polls generally - neither Sunak nor Starmer would be as deep in the red with another pollster probably.
Secondly, Johnson broadly divided opinion in the right way for the Conservatives as he was popular with Leavers and unpopular with Remainers - but the Leavers were in key targets while the Remainers were either in big cities (where Tories had few targets) or in the commuter belt (where Lib Dems did okay but from such a low base it didn't deliver seats - the Home Counties held their nose basically).
Thirdly, polls that offered "very favourable" and "somewhat favourable" had quite a lot of people saying "very". That tends to drive turnout. Underneath the Johnson numbers were quite a lot of people who thought he was great (and quite a few who loathed him) whereas a lot of people have pretty mild views either way on Starmer. I am not sure if that puts Starmer in a better or worse position - but it isn't broadly the same position as those numbers may indicate.
That’s why I prefer gross positives; so what if people who aren’t going to vote for your party really, really don’t like you? Boris won a huge majority with that net rating
And Keir, with a similar net but poorer gross, is on for an even bigger one. So ... ??
Poorer net & gross.
So fewer people like him is all we can say for sure I suppose.
Bet on low turnout? Not with me though, I’m not inviting your double crossing, snideyness back
We're talking again! 🤝 🙂
No, no more kuntibula/eyesam betting. Lessons learnt mutually there.
Pffft, I wouldn’t want you to think there was any generosity of spirit from me, I think the way you behaved over that bet is a disgrace
It's ok. Time is the best healer with this sort of spat and it's only been a few weeks. I'm confident we'll be good as new by the summer.
I long thought that Suella or Badenoch would be the next Corbyn. Turns out it was Mr Sunak all along. Just shows the danger of only speaking to your own echo chamber. A Thatcher or a Blair would never, ever, have made that mistake until the hubris of winning more than one GE had set in. Mr Sunak didn't even win his own leadership vote - against Liz Truss!
Interesting interview with Nadine Dorries on the Spectator podcast. She claims that 'the cabal' now have it out for Sunk because they've realised he's a dud and he's going to get them turfed out of Number 10. They think they can turn it around with Kemi.
I could have told them that quite some time ago - my fees are modest.
Brave Sir Keir runs away again. The inveterate invertebrate shows he has no plan & there is no principle he won’t ditch. He’s the jellyfish of politics - transparent, spineless & swept along by the tide. Far from taking Britain forward, Labour would take us back to Square One
Let’s agree on the bleeding obvious politics of this. The 28 billion was being used more on Tory leaflets, in their campaign, than Labours. That’s why there’s a shitting us Mister Gove 😃
The £28B Green tax bombshell is no more. It’s is extinct. It is an ex bombshell, no longer waiting to go off. It won’t blow down any curtains or disturb the choir invisible. It’s now just £5B.
And Labour WANT this plastered all over the news. And it’s working, This great news day for Labour. The BBC showed their pro labour bias, giving Starmer ten minutes right at the start of their flagship news, to bat back a couple of naff questions, and explain himself, in his own words. The BBC had framed it all up for Starmer to look more Primeministerial here, than he has ever looked.
Of course Sunak would rather campaign on the far more potent: Labours £28B Green Tax Bombshell, than try to make the argument he’s been left with, that Starmer is more flip floppy and “planless” than Sunak himself.
The whole Tory election campaign has been built about around the great ideological and ruinous madness of Labours Green Jihad, which is why the Tory’s binned their own credentials in the Autumn to maximise the clear blue water.
Feels to me like SCOTUS are going to punt this. They’re going to say a state can’t keep a candidate off the ballot because they are ineligible. They will likely use the fact that Congress can remove the disability as a reason why they can’t. The wording of the amendment states that the person can’t “hold” office, not that they can’t run for office.
If I’m right, they’ll actually leave a giant elephant in the room, because they’ll essentially be saying come back to us after the election, and we can decide if he can actually take office at that point.
Surely not? Even by their low standards that would be a ruling of absolute lunacy.
I mean, does that imply that should a 33 year old decide to run, they can wait until later to be actually elected? No president for two years? Or the Veep as Acting President?
I suspect they will find that the amendment does apply to the presidency but the courts were wrong about Trump being an insurrectionist.
Except Thomas, who will claim it doesn't apply to Trump because Mrs Thomas told him it shouldn't it requires legislation to enforce despite such legislation not having been needed before.
The obvious basis for that is that he hasn't been convicted of insurrection.
Much as I'd like to see him kicked off the ballot, it ain't happening.
I don't think they'll do it on the basis of lack of a conviction.
The 14th amendment makes absolutely no reference to conviction, and there is no specific offence of insurrection. So that would go well beyond the natural wording (in a way conservatve justices won't be keen on at all - the drafting cound have said "convicted of" but didn't, it said "engaged in"). It would also go beyond the original intent at the time of post-Civil War reconstruction.
It also begs too many questions - in particular, it leaves the question hanging of whether a conviction in upcoming trials would do it.
I think Colorado will certainly lose (even Kagan, a liberal justice, sounded a bit sceptical in the bit I heard, and Roberts and Kavanaugh certainly were - albeit they all need to challenge counsel). But not on those grounds, I suspect.
There was some scepticism about allowing each state to make its own decision on it but that is the only way it would likely get approved, there was certainly not much enthusiasm from justices for a national ban on Trump being on the ballot.
On the other side Coney Barrett was somewhat sceptical of Trump lawyers argument that Jan 2021 was not an insurrection. So if she went with the 3 Obama judges and Roberts Colorado would win 5-4
But at least he admits what it was. Jack Smith should add it to the Jan 6 charges. A federal conviction would bar him.
His line is that as Speaker Pelosi could have called in the military to protect Congress. As opposed to him, being Commander in Chief, etc. It is nonsense but it is not senile.
@Dura_Ace posted a link to this story on the previous thread but I'm not sure it registered. Following on from his gaffe about meeting Mitterrand at the G7, he's now been referring to Helmut Kohl.
These are not just mix-ups but signs that he doesn't know what decade it is. He's simply not a viable candidate for four more years as president.
President Joe Biden on Wednesday twice referred to the late German chancellor Helmut Kohl instead of former Chancellor Angela Merkel while detailing a 2021 conversation at campaign events.
It was the second time this week that Biden had recalled speaking with a European leader who had died years earlier.
He has the right country though. Trump thinks Orban runs Turkey.
Orban;Erdogan … easily mixed up.
Both shits, though Erdogan an ever so slightly less unreliable ally. With slightly more justification for his delusions of grandeur.
Though they do have the advantage that they are both still alive. Mitterrand and Kohl not so much.
Time-shifting is a common symptom of dementia and is different from just being forgetful or mixing things up.
That's true. First sign with my mum. Although chronic mixing up of names can also be a grim portent.
Anyway, yes, Joe is a worry. He seems frailer than Trump. The nail is in but you and the Trumpers carry on banging it if you like.
I've been saying for a while that I can easily see neither on the ballot in November. I still think that.
@Dura_Ace posted a link to this story on the previous thread but I'm not sure it registered. Following on from his gaffe about meeting Mitterrand at the G7, he's now been referring to Helmut Kohl.
These are not just mix-ups but signs that he doesn't know what decade it is. He's simply not a viable candidate for four more years as president.
President Joe Biden on Wednesday twice referred to the late German chancellor Helmut Kohl instead of former Chancellor Angela Merkel while detailing a 2021 conversation at campaign events.
It was the second time this week that Biden had recalled speaking with a European leader who had died years earlier.
He has the right country though. Trump thinks Orban runs Turkey.
Orban;Erdogan … easily mixed up.
Both shits, though Erdogan an ever so slightly less unreliable ally. With slightly more justification for his delusions of grandeur.
Though they do have the advantage that they are both still alive. Mitterrand and Kohl not so much.
Time-shifting is a common symptom of dementia and is different from just being forgetful or mixing things up.
That's true. First sign with my mum. Although chronic mixing up of names can also be a grim portent.
Anyway, yes, Joe is a worry. He seems frailer than Trump. The nail is in but you and the Trumpers carry on banging it if you like.
I've been saying for a while that I can easily see neither on the ballot in November. I still think that.
My MIL was found by an ambulance crew at 4.30 this morning anxious that she was late for her hair appointment at 4.30 this evening. She was brought home by the police. It is another alarming step downwards I'm afraid. Very sad.
Interesting interview with Nadine Dorries on the Spectator podcast. She claims that 'the cabal' now have it out for Sunk because they've realised he's a dud and he's going to get them turfed out of Number 10. They think they can turn it around with Kemi.
I could have told them that quite some time ago - my fees are modest.
She just sees conspiracies everywhere, like a few on here. The Tories are a deeply divided party with no common purpose and little chance of electoral success. Any leader is going to quickly develop enemies and confidence lost both ways.
Firstly, Ipsos MORI gave Johnson the worst ratings just before the 2019 election. Deltapoll actually had him at +2% net favourable, but around -10% was more typical than the Ipsos number. So he wasn't "popular" net but was probably in a better place than the quoted poll indicated. Although it should be noted Ipsos just seem a bit harsher on favourability polls generally - neither Sunak nor Starmer would be as deep in the red with another pollster probably.
Secondly, Johnson broadly divided opinion in the right way for the Conservatives as he was popular with Leavers and unpopular with Remainers - but the Leavers were in key targets while the Remainers were either in big cities (where Tories had few targets) or in the commuter belt (where Lib Dems did okay but from such a low base it didn't deliver seats - the Home Counties held their nose basically).
Thirdly, polls that offered "very favourable" and "somewhat favourable" had quite a lot of people saying "very". That tends to drive turnout. Underneath the Johnson numbers were quite a lot of people who thought he was great (and quite a few who loathed him) whereas a lot of people have pretty mild views either way on Starmer. I am not sure if that puts Starmer in a better or worse position - but it isn't broadly the same position as those numbers may indicate.
That’s why I prefer gross positives; so what if people who aren’t going to vote for your party really, really don’t like you? Boris won a huge majority with that net rating
And Keir, with a similar net but poorer gross, is on for an even bigger one. So ... ??
Poorer net & gross.
So fewer people like him is all we can say for sure I suppose.
Bet on low turnout? Not with me though, I’m not inviting your double crossing, snideyness back
We're talking again! 🤝 🙂
No, no more kuntibula/eyesam betting. Lessons learnt mutually there.
Pffft, I wouldn’t want you to think there was any generosity of spirit from me, I think the way you behaved over that bet is a disgrace
It's ok. Time is the best healer with this sort of spat and it's only been a few weeks. I'm confident we'll be good as new by the summer.
It wasn’t good when it was new
No ok. Just a turn of phrase. But c'mon we had our moments!
Eg do you remember when you refused point blank to do my 'class test'? That was bantz for the ages.
Brave Sir Keir runs away again. The inveterate invertebrate shows he has no plan & there is no principle he won’t ditch. He’s the jellyfish of politics - transparent, spineless & swept along by the tide. Far from taking Britain forward, Labour would take us back to Square One
Let’s agree on the bleeding obvious politics of this. The 28 billion was being used more on Tory leaflets, in their campaign, than Labours. That’s why there’s a shitting us Mister Gove 😃
The £28B Green tax bombshell is no more. It’s is extinct. It is an ex bombshell, no longer waiting to go off. It won’t blow down any curtains or disturb the choir invisible. It’s now just £5B.
And Labour WANT this plastered all over the news. And it’s working, This great news day for Labour. The BBC showed their pro labour bias, giving Starmer ten minutes right at the start of their flagship news, to bat back a couple of naff questions, and explain himself, in his own words. The BBC had framed it all up for Starmer to look more Primeministerial here, than he has ever looked.
Of course Sunak would rather campaign on the far more potent: Labours £28B Green Tax Bombshell, than try to make the argument he’s been left with, that Starmer is more flip floppy and “planless” than Sunak himself.
The whole Tory election campaign has been built about around the great ideological and ruinous madness of Labours Green Jihad, which is why the Tory’s binned their own credentials in the Autumn to maximise the clear blue water.
Today Starmer shot the Tory fox.
That's why they're so cross.
Two other observations.
First is that the amount that will be spent on greenery in the 2024-8/9 Parliament is completely unaffected by this announcement. It will still, I suspect, be substantial.
Second is that the recognition that words are just words is what separates parties of opposition from parties of power. "We will spend £X on Y" is the slogan of a party that will never spend a penny on anything.
Much better not to make silly promises, just in case you have to keep them. I'm sure the Foreign Secretary would agree.
@Dura_Ace posted a link to this story on the previous thread but I'm not sure it registered. Following on from his gaffe about meeting Mitterrand at the G7, he's now been referring to Helmut Kohl.
These are not just mix-ups but signs that he doesn't know what decade it is. He's simply not a viable candidate for four more years as president.
President Joe Biden on Wednesday twice referred to the late German chancellor Helmut Kohl instead of former Chancellor Angela Merkel while detailing a 2021 conversation at campaign events.
It was the second time this week that Biden had recalled speaking with a European leader who had died years earlier.
He has the right country though. Trump thinks Orban runs Turkey.
Orban;Erdogan … easily mixed up.
Both shits, though Erdogan an ever so slightly less unreliable ally. With slightly more justification for his delusions of grandeur.
Though they do have the advantage that they are both still alive. Mitterrand and Kohl not so much.
Time-shifting is a common symptom of dementia and is different from just being forgetful or mixing things up.
That's true. First sign with my mum. Although chronic mixing up of names can also be a grim portent.
Anyway, yes, Joe is a worry. He seems frailer than Trump. The nail is in but you and the Trumpers carry on banging it if you like.
I've been saying for a while that I can easily see neither on the ballot in November. I still think that.
My MIL was found by an ambulance crew at 4.30 this morning anxious that she was late for her hair appointment at 4.30 this evening. She was brought home by the police. It is another alarming step downwards I'm afraid. Very sad.
I am very sorry to hear that.
I don't know if this is at all relevant (probably only if it's Alzheimers), but there's an excellent interview with a medical doctor on YT of the benefits of MCT oil in helping a great deal with her husband's case. https://youtu.be/A3uQ85noslk?si=GTIe81QJO3ZY62Ga
@Dura_Ace posted a link to this story on the previous thread but I'm not sure it registered. Following on from his gaffe about meeting Mitterrand at the G7, he's now been referring to Helmut Kohl.
These are not just mix-ups but signs that he doesn't know what decade it is. He's simply not a viable candidate for four more years as president.
President Joe Biden on Wednesday twice referred to the late German chancellor Helmut Kohl instead of former Chancellor Angela Merkel while detailing a 2021 conversation at campaign events.
It was the second time this week that Biden had recalled speaking with a European leader who had died years earlier.
He has the right country though. Trump thinks Orban runs Turkey.
Orban;Erdogan … easily mixed up.
Both shits, though Erdogan an ever so slightly less unreliable ally. With slightly more justification for his delusions of grandeur.
Though they do have the advantage that they are both still alive. Mitterrand and Kohl not so much.
Time-shifting is a common symptom of dementia and is different from just being forgetful or mixing things up.
That's true. First sign with my mum. Although chronic mixing up of names can also be a grim portent.
Anyway, yes, Joe is a worry. He seems frailer than Trump. The nail is in but you and the Trumpers carry on banging it if you like.
I've been saying for a while that I can easily see neither on the ballot in November. I still think that.
My MIL was found by an ambulance crew at 4.30 this morning anxious that she was late for her hair appointment at 4.30 this evening. She was brought home by the police. It is another alarming step downwards I'm afraid. Very sad.
I am very sorry to hear that.
I don't know if this is at all relevant (probably only if it's Alzheimers), but there's an excellent interview with a medical doctor on YT of the benefits of MCT oil in helping a great deal with her husband's case. https://youtu.be/A3uQ85noslk?si=GTIe81QJO3ZY62Ga
Vascular dementia being caused by physical deterioration of the blood circulation in the brain so I fear not but thanks for the thought.
Interesting interview with Nadine Dorries on the Spectator podcast. She claims that 'the cabal' now have it out for Sunk because they've realised he's a dud and he's going to get them turfed out of Number 10. They think they can turn it around with Kemi.
I could have told them that quite some time ago - my fees are modest.
She just sees conspiracies everywhere, like a few on here. The Tories are a deeply divided party with no common purpose and little chance of electoral success. Any leader is going to quickly develop enemies and confidence lost both ways.
Just call a GE and save everyone the misery.
Perhaps, but she did predict the downfall of Sunak and the crowning of another 'the spare' in her book. Granted, that's much like predicting gravity, but there is certainly a concerted effort at this time, involving some money and some organisation.
I am deeply conflicted because I would like Sunak to go, but don't particularly want the cabal to claim another scalp.
Interesting interview with Nadine Dorries on the Spectator podcast. She claims that 'the cabal' now have it out for Sunk because they've realised he's a dud and he's going to get them turfed out of Number 10. They think they can turn it around with Kemi.
I could have told them that quite some time ago - my fees are modest.
She just sees conspiracies everywhere, like a few on here. The Tories are a deeply divided party with no common purpose and little chance of electoral success. Any leader is going to quickly develop enemies and confidence lost both ways.
Just call a GE and save everyone the misery.
Perhaps, but she did predict the downfall of Sunak and the crowning of another 'the spare' in her book. Granted, that's much like predicting gravity, but there is certainly a concerted effort at this time, involving some money and some organisation.
I am deeply conflicted because I would like Sunak to go, but don't particularly want the cabal to claim another scalp.
I would like to see Sunak go, partly because he deserves it, mostly for betting reasons. Fortunately there is no cabal, just a deeply divided party who can't get behind any leader fundamentally because they don't agree with each other about much other than blue is a lovely rosette.
@Dura_Ace posted a link to this story on the previous thread but I'm not sure it registered. Following on from his gaffe about meeting Mitterrand at the G7, he's now been referring to Helmut Kohl.
These are not just mix-ups but signs that he doesn't know what decade it is. He's simply not a viable candidate for four more years as president.
President Joe Biden on Wednesday twice referred to the late German chancellor Helmut Kohl instead of former Chancellor Angela Merkel while detailing a 2021 conversation at campaign events.
It was the second time this week that Biden had recalled speaking with a European leader who had died years earlier.
He has the right country though. Trump thinks Orban runs Turkey.
Orban;Erdogan … easily mixed up.
Both shits, though Erdogan an ever so slightly less unreliable ally. With slightly more justification for his delusions of grandeur.
Though they do have the advantage that they are both still alive. Mitterrand and Kohl not so much.
Time-shifting is a common symptom of dementia and is different from just being forgetful or mixing things up.
That's true. First sign with my mum. Although chronic mixing up of names can also be a grim portent.
Anyway, yes, Joe is a worry. He seems frailer than Trump. The nail is in but you and the Trumpers carry on banging it if you like.
I've been saying for a while that I can easily see neither on the ballot in November. I still think that.
My MIL was found by an ambulance crew at 4.30 this morning anxious that she was late for her hair appointment at 4.30 this evening. She was brought home by the police. It is another alarming step downwards I'm afraid. Very sad.
I regularly get a phonecall from my mum (86) at around 04:00 asking me what's going on as it's dark outside. She thinks it's the afternoon. Quite often, she's quite frightened as she thinks it's a natural disaster/war going on. She's taken to really arguing with my dad lately, but he's been dead 15 years so we just gloss over that. On the plus side, she's still at home, cooking herself meals, showering on her own and pottering about her flat. It's a bit of a full time job for my sister and me just fielding the phonecalls, but the old bird is worth it.
@Dura_Ace posted a link to this story on the previous thread but I'm not sure it registered. Following on from his gaffe about meeting Mitterrand at the G7, he's now been referring to Helmut Kohl.
These are not just mix-ups but signs that he doesn't know what decade it is. He's simply not a viable candidate for four more years as president.
President Joe Biden on Wednesday twice referred to the late German chancellor Helmut Kohl instead of former Chancellor Angela Merkel while detailing a 2021 conversation at campaign events.
It was the second time this week that Biden had recalled speaking with a European leader who had died years earlier.
He has the right country though. Trump thinks Orban runs Turkey.
Orban;Erdogan … easily mixed up.
Both shits, though Erdogan an ever so slightly less unreliable ally. With slightly more justification for his delusions of grandeur.
Though they do have the advantage that they are both still alive. Mitterrand and Kohl not so much.
Time-shifting is a common symptom of dementia and is different from just being forgetful or mixing things up.
That's true. First sign with my mum. Although chronic mixing up of names can also be a grim portent.
Anyway, yes, Joe is a worry. He seems frailer than Trump. The nail is in but you and the Trumpers carry on banging it if you like.
I've been saying for a while that I can easily see neither on the ballot in November. I still think that.
My MIL was found by an ambulance crew at 4.30 this morning anxious that she was late for her hair appointment at 4.30 this evening. She was brought home by the police. It is another alarming step downwards I'm afraid. Very sad.
Ah not good. Just not what you want for someone. You hope it somehow skips all of your own loved ones but the odds are it won't. My mum has AD. Not terrible right now but I don't like to think of what lies ahead.
Starmer's remorseless pursuit of GE victory continues apace, as he dismantles step by step every potential attack line that can be pursued against him. Today it's the turn of the £28 billion sum for the Green Prosperity Plan.
The mistake was, of course, putting a number on it back in 2021, at a time of low interest rates and when they had little idea what the state of the economy would be in 2024. Not sure why they did that - much better to establish the Green Prosperity Plan and GB Energy as policies, the financing of which would be revealed at the time of the GE.
By the time of the GE, the Tories will only be left with two attack lines: 1. This happily married father doesn't know what a woman is (I think he does), and 2. Starmer keeps changing his mind in the light of new evidence.
The tories will almost certainly run a negative campaign against Starmer because what else do they have? Nothing.
However, for a negative campaign to work it has to resonate with something the voters already suspect or feel. Attacks portraying Starmer as a lying chancer are just going to bounce off his heavily shellacked hair
It is the only attack they have, but it is based in truth; he is a liar and a chancer, and there’s loads of video evidence of him at it, so it could work. The main problem is, he’s so dull it’s hard to believe he is the complete snide he is
2 incidents yesterday make me pause in that assessment. Firstly, the outrage on behalf of the mother of Brianna Ghey was instant and genuine. He may have developed it later into politics but he was genuinely appalled. Secondly, it was noted that at the end of PMQs he immediately went up to Elliot Cockburn, who had disclosed his attempted suicide, to lend him support and comfort.
Just 2 straws in the wind but for the moment I am willing to accept that Starmer is a genuinely decent man who doesn't seem to have fixed views on much other than he should be PM. I certainly don't think of him as a complete snide.
I think this is where people misunderstand Starmer. Starmer is a "respect for the office if not the person" guy - he was a lawyer and that is drummed into them. To Starmer the things that are wrong with the country are wrong because the Tories and Corbyn have, in his mind, brought them into disrepute. His job, then, is to make these things reputable again.
One of the things that many trans people have noted about this recent kerfuffle is a) it seems that it's fine to say transphobic dogwhistles when a murdered transgirl isn't a big news story and b) that the framing is all about respect for Brianna's mother and not the dignity of transpeople themselves. That's because, in the British discourse, transpeople are free to be disrespected; grieving mothers are not. So when the two come together, some people miss the marker.
We can see this with the political left and right all the time. Concerns about immigration are always "concerns of real people". Concerns about austerity are always "concerns of left wing activists". This isn't because cuts were popular - it's because people who are deemed "left wing" in the UK are not really respectable political actors. Similar for people who liked Corbyn/ism - they are not deserving of respect in the political arena, according to those within the political milieu, so you can lie to them as much as you want.
Hence Starmer. He ran to be Labour leader by appealing to the centre, by being the sensible man in the suit, and the left, by saying he would do Corbynism but sensibly and in a way your grandma would support. The thing is only centrists and the media are people worth respecting, so as soon as he won he had to defer to their needs and desires and not to the left any more. Transpeople and their rights is a great example of this - before all this Starmer only ever interacted with the transphobic side of this struggle; Mumsnetters, his transphobic MPs, talking about getting rid of Gillick and agreeing with the school guidance recently released. Now, in front of a grieving mother, he tries to walk this back.
I remember listening to a podcast that described Starmer as a neo-Confucianist. That his entire platform is if we bring back respect of the institutions and the correct symbols and trappings of tradition, that everything will fix itself outside of the material reality we're in. I think that sums him up perfectly.
It's much simpler to understand Starmer thus: He is a perfectly decent man and has the protean qualities required in real politics. He campaigned to be leader in a manner to win the membership vote, and will campaign in the GE in a manner to win the general public vote. They are different. Losing both of these campaigns is much much easier than winning them. He has a very decent chance of winning both.
He will govern in accordance with the laws of political reality, things which neither the Labour membership, nor many voters are good at analysing.
Oh yes; respect for institutions, based on their actual excellence and merits, would be most welcome.
What are the laws of political reality? Because what I see is a country that has been starved of public sector funding for a very long time atrophying as it's essential public services become worse and the price of everything gets higher. And all the policies that would address that, which are actually somewhat popular with voters, being jettisoned out of some idea of what centrism is.
Public spending as a percentage of GDP is higher than it was at any time while Tony Blair was PM.
The proportion of people beyond working age is massively greater now though. Fewer working age people footing the bill for vastly greater health and social care demand. I'd be interested in seeing someone adjust spending and tax numbers for demographics.
It’s easy to add population via immigration, but that can turn into a Ponzi scheme that simply gets worse and worse over time.
The correct way to do it, from my own observations elsewhere, is to limit primary immigration to high salaries and needed jobs, which does appear to be happening slowly, but also to allow a number of other immigrants on a “guest worker” basis, strictly time limited, a version of which has been agreed with Australia.
And no, students shouldn’t bring dependents, that’s the next big scandal and almost certainly an immigration scam running in countries such as Nigeria. Limit it to doctoral or post-doc studies.
How is importing someone fully trained at 21 any different from someone having a baby, in terms of Ponzi-scheme-ness?
I mean, I understand it from a population-mix perspective and a changing society one. But from a straight long-term dependency ratio basis, then a baby and an imported person are identical, except you don't need to pay for the schooling of the imported person.
If you *permanently* import them at age 21, they work at minimum wage for 45 years, perhaps with some in-work benefits, and then they claim a pension for 30 years, they’re a massive net drain on the UK public purse over their lifetime.
If you take a new 21-year-old on a two-year visa every two years, then as the population curve eases you can restrict immigration numbers further, with no effect on the public purse.
This is how things work in my region, I’ll never be a citizen and never entitled to public support. If I’m rich, I can sponsor myself for long-term residence, but that’s on me, and I’ll need to be able to keep up the health insurance premiums.
This is of course totally incompatible with modern “human rights” legislation, and the inability to seemingly be able to deport anyone anywhere that results from it.
Nothing to do with human rights, these are government choices. We do actually run similar visa schemes of various temporary durations in certain sectors already, so it happens and the liberal lefties aren't moaning about it as you fear. If the government wanted to offer them more widely it can.
Seasonal Worker visa (Temporary Work) Government Authorised Exchange visa (Temporary Work) Creative Worker visa (Temporary Work) Religious Worker visa (Temporary Work) Charity Worker visa (Temporary Work) International Agreement visa (Temporary Work)
With the posible exception of the first of these, which is aimed at farm workers, anyone who can claim evidence of a ‘right to a family life’ can get legal aid to sue the government, with almost unlimited appeals and almost unlimited NGOs wanting to assist them.
Where I live, if you’re ordered to be deported then you’re held in custody and put on the next available plane, and if you wish to appeal then it’s done at your own expense and from overseas.
Where you live the idea of a overriding human right is none existent. You are governed by the whims of an monarch drawn from dynastic families. Free expression and assembly is criminalised, you could be arbitrarily detained and same sex relationships are illegal.
Yet the local population is one of the happiest in the world, and the city in which I live is probably the most diverse city in the world. I worked for a company that employed 192 different nationalities.
I'm sure it works well until you need the rule of law 'cos the Sheikh wants to use you as a parking space.
I suspect Starmer's announcement is a defensive one that reflects the lack of fiscal headroom the government has at the moment ('there is no money left' could easily be written today).
It's clear the intent to be more green than the Tories - especially Sunak - remains. And I expect in practice decisions will be made at each budget as to what is affordable.
It does leave the Tory with even fewer targets for the election.
The other problem of course is that if Trump is elected, and then barred by the 14th, I think I'm right in saying his Veep then becomes acting president.
His running mate is likely to be even more off the wall than he is.
@Dura_Ace posted a link to this story on the previous thread but I'm not sure it registered. Following on from his gaffe about meeting Mitterrand at the G7, he's now been referring to Helmut Kohl.
These are not just mix-ups but signs that he doesn't know what decade it is. He's simply not a viable candidate for four more years as president.
President Joe Biden on Wednesday twice referred to the late German chancellor Helmut Kohl instead of former Chancellor Angela Merkel while detailing a 2021 conversation at campaign events.
It was the second time this week that Biden had recalled speaking with a European leader who had died years earlier.
He has the right country though. Trump thinks Orban runs Turkey.
Orban;Erdogan … easily mixed up.
Both shits, though Erdogan an ever so slightly less unreliable ally. With slightly more justification for his delusions of grandeur.
Though they do have the advantage that they are both still alive. Mitterrand and Kohl not so much.
Time-shifting is a common symptom of dementia and is different from just being forgetful or mixing things up.
That's true. First sign with my mum. Although chronic mixing up of names can also be a grim portent.
Anyway, yes, Joe is a worry. He seems frailer than Trump. The nail is in but you and the Trumpers carry on banging it if you like.
I've been saying for a while that I can easily see neither on the ballot in November. I still think that.
My MIL was found by an ambulance crew at 4.30 this morning anxious that she was late for her hair appointment at 4.30 this evening. She was brought home by the police. It is another alarming step downwards I'm afraid. Very sad.
Not good. My grandfather used to be found at a bus stop, ready for a bowls match, at 3am, worried that he was late for a game at 4pm.
The other problem of course is that if Trump is elected, and then barred by the 14th, I think I'm right in saying his Veep then becomes acting president.
His running mate is likely to be even more off the wall than he is.
Something no-one has really given consideration to yet. Will Jared and Ivanka be in the picture?
@Dura_Ace posted a link to this story on the previous thread but I'm not sure it registered. Following on from his gaffe about meeting Mitterrand at the G7, he's now been referring to Helmut Kohl.
These are not just mix-ups but signs that he doesn't know what decade it is. He's simply not a viable candidate for four more years as president.
President Joe Biden on Wednesday twice referred to the late German chancellor Helmut Kohl instead of former Chancellor Angela Merkel while detailing a 2021 conversation at campaign events.
It was the second time this week that Biden had recalled speaking with a European leader who had died years earlier.
He has the right country though. Trump thinks Orban runs Turkey.
Orban;Erdogan … easily mixed up.
Both shits, though Erdogan an ever so slightly less unreliable ally. With slightly more justification for his delusions of grandeur.
Though they do have the advantage that they are both still alive. Mitterrand and Kohl not so much.
He's harking back to a better time. Many will empathise.
I wouldnt see the Soviet Union fuelled cold war as better times.
For America the 80s and 90s were less troubled times than today, I'd say.
Yes. In many ways the 80s and 90s were peak America pre 911 and the financial crisis. Much more optimistic times.
Am I going mad? Have I understood this? After weeks and weeks of dither Starmer has not properly dropped the £28b green investment plan but announced it will be £15b instead.
Either the Tories have an albatross they can hang on him or they don't? Now they have 1/2 an albatross?
And all this on the day after PMQs when Sunak so fucked up.
Interesting interview with Nadine Dorries on the Spectator podcast. She claims that 'the cabal' now have it out for Sunk because they've realised he's a dud and he's going to get them turfed out of Number 10. They think they can turn it around with Kemi.
I could have told them that quite some time ago - my fees are modest.
She just sees conspiracies everywhere, like a few on here. The Tories are a deeply divided party with no common purpose and little chance of electoral success. Any leader is going to quickly develop enemies and confidence lost both ways.
Just call a GE and save everyone the misery.
Perhaps, but she did predict the downfall of Sunak and the crowning of another 'the spare' in her book. Granted, that's much like predicting gravity, but there is certainly a concerted effort at this time, involving some money and some organisation.
I am deeply conflicted because I would like Sunak to go, but don't particularly want the cabal to claim another scalp.
Am I going mad? Have I understood this? After weeks and weeks of dither Starmer has not properly dropped the £28b green investment plan but announced it will be £15b instead.
Either the Tories have an albatross they can hang on him or they don't? Now they have 1/2 an albatross?
And all this on the day after PMQs when Sunak so fucked up.
I'm beginning to believe Labour are keen to keep the Tories in the race as far as possible to keep things interesting until the campaign proper starts.
Interesting interview with Nadine Dorries on the Spectator podcast. She claims that 'the cabal' now have it out for Sunk because they've realised he's a dud and he's going to get them turfed out of Number 10. They think they can turn it around with Kemi.
I could have told them that quite some time ago - my fees are modest.
She just sees conspiracies everywhere, like a few on here. The Tories are a deeply divided party with no common purpose and little chance of electoral success. Any leader is going to quickly develop enemies and confidence lost both ways.
Just call a GE and save everyone the misery.
Perhaps, but she did predict the downfall of Sunak and the crowning of another 'the spare' in her book. Granted, that's much like predicting gravity, but there is certainly a concerted effort at this time, involving some money and some organisation.
I am deeply conflicted because I would like Sunak to go, but don't particularly want the cabal to claim another scalp.
The 'cabal' - bless.
So you are denying that groups of powerful men ever get in a room and plan things to their own self interest. You have clearly led a very sheltered life.
The other problem of course is that if Trump is elected, and then barred by the 14th, I think I'm right in saying his Veep then becomes acting president.
His running mate is likely to be even more off the wall than he is.
I keep hearing rumours of Tucker Carlson for VP. Well he would certainly end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours.
I mean, it's a bit harsh, even for a Cambridge bod.
Worse than that, To*y....
HY will be along in a minute to explain to you why TSE is not a proper Tory.
To be fair to HY he sounded a bit despondant last evening, in "reasonable" mode rather than the "party machine" mode. It seems even he has his limits and is tired of the Tory drama. Time for a GE.
The other problem of course is that if Trump is elected, and then barred by the 14th, I think I'm right in saying his Veep then becomes acting president.
His running mate is likely to be even more off the wall than he is.
I keep hearing rumours of Tucker Carlson for VP. Well he would certainly end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours.
Oh, please, please make Trump 2.0 do this and put Carlson as veep nominee.
Wipes out any chance of trying to reach out to suburban soccer mums or whatever they are called these days.
Interesting interview with Nadine Dorries on the Spectator podcast. She claims that 'the cabal' now have it out for Sunk because they've realised he's a dud and he's going to get them turfed out of Number 10. They think they can turn it around with Kemi.
I could have told them that quite some time ago - my fees are modest.
She just sees conspiracies everywhere, like a few on here. The Tories are a deeply divided party with no common purpose and little chance of electoral success. Any leader is going to quickly develop enemies and confidence lost both ways.
Just call a GE and save everyone the misery.
Perhaps, but she did predict the downfall of Sunak and the crowning of another 'the spare' in her book. Granted, that's much like predicting gravity, but there is certainly a concerted effort at this time, involving some money and some organisation.
I am deeply conflicted because I would like Sunak to go, but don't particularly want the cabal to claim another scalp.
The 'cabal' - bless.
So you are denying that groups of powerful men ever get in a room and plan things to their own self interest. You have clearly led a very sheltered life.
Counterpoint:
If there really is a secret cabal imposing and deposing Conservative leaders, why do they keep picking losers who have to be replaced every couple of years?
Interesting interview with Nadine Dorries on the Spectator podcast. She claims that 'the cabal' now have it out for Sunk because they've realised he's a dud and he's going to get them turfed out of Number 10. They think they can turn it around with Kemi.
I could have told them that quite some time ago - my fees are modest.
She just sees conspiracies everywhere, like a few on here. The Tories are a deeply divided party with no common purpose and little chance of electoral success. Any leader is going to quickly develop enemies and confidence lost both ways.
Just call a GE and save everyone the misery.
Perhaps, but she did predict the downfall of Sunak and the crowning of another 'the spare' in her book. Granted, that's much like predicting gravity, but there is certainly a concerted effort at this time, involving some money and some organisation.
I am deeply conflicted because I would like Sunak to go, but don't particularly want the cabal to claim another scalp.
After reading Nadine Dorries' book, I'm not much the wiser. In places it is hard to remember who she is talking to but she keeps reminding us where, and the silly names do not help. Some of what she calls plotting looks like business as usual. Was there a plot to bring down Boris? Does she not remember a plot to bring down Theresa May?
But oddly she does not mention one strong argument, which is that something similar to the plot she alleges did happen in the Labour Party, against Jeremy Corbyn.
Am I going mad? Have I understood this? After weeks and weeks of dither Starmer has not properly dropped the £28b green investment plan but announced it will be £15b instead.
Either the Tories have an albatross they can hang on him or they don't? Now they have 1/2 an albatross?
And all this on the day after PMQs when Sunak so fucked up.
I'm beginning to believe Labour are keen to keep the Tories in the race as far as possible to keep things interesting until the campaign proper starts.
I'm struggling to make sense of this frankly.
John MacTern is right on the nail.
How can you be the 'change candidate' if literally nothing is allowed to change in case it is a target of some stupid tory twitter or FB advert?
Manifesto slogan: 'Elect Labour. We'll do exactly what the tories were doing but the deputy PM will be a woman and the CoE plays chess rather than the PM who plays football.'
Interesting interview with Nadine Dorries on the Spectator podcast. She claims that 'the cabal' now have it out for Sunk because they've realised he's a dud and he's going to get them turfed out of Number 10. They think they can turn it around with Kemi.
I could have told them that quite some time ago - my fees are modest.
She just sees conspiracies everywhere, like a few on here. The Tories are a deeply divided party with no common purpose and little chance of electoral success. Any leader is going to quickly develop enemies and confidence lost both ways.
Just call a GE and save everyone the misery.
Perhaps, but she did predict the downfall of Sunak and the crowning of another 'the spare' in her book. Granted, that's much like predicting gravity, but there is certainly a concerted effort at this time, involving some money and some organisation.
I am deeply conflicted because I would like Sunak to go, but don't particularly want the cabal to claim another scalp.
The 'cabal' - bless.
So you are denying that groups of powerful men ever get in a room and plan things to their own self interest. You have clearly led a very sheltered life.
Counterpoint:
If there really is a secret cabal imposing and deposing Conservative leaders, why do they keep picking losers who have to be replaced every couple of years?
Doesnt mean they will always make the right decision.
I mean, it's a bit harsh, even for a Cambridge bod.
Worse than that, To*y....
HY will be along in a minute to explain to you why TSE is not a proper Tory.
To be fair to HY he sounded a bit despondant last evening, in "reasonable" mode rather than the "party machine" mode. It seems even he has his limits and is tired of the Tory drama. Time for a GE.
I missed that. If even HY has given up the Tories really are shafted.
A disaster in terms of Labour communications where they’ve managed to make people think they’ve ditched their entire green plans even though they’re keeping most of them.
Whoever is advising them should be given their P45 .
They certainly can’t afford any more self inflicted disasters . I expect a big drop in their polling because of many more won’t vote or Green transfers .
One things for sure Starmer needs to get a grip and stop being pushed around by Reeves and her austerity team .
I’m totally underwhelmed by Labour and they need to stop being arrogant and think their voters will stick with them regardless of their Tory lite policies .
The case of El Salvador is an inspiring example of what strong leadership can do. Now one of the safest countries in the western hemisphere from a crime ridden hell hole.
They hate Bukele because he is proof that malaise and rot are a choice and can be overturned by will. It is not even a matter of resources - El Salvador's wealth is only a fraction of America's. What matters is only the will to act.
I mean, it's a bit harsh, even for a Cambridge bod.
Worse than that, To*y....
HY will be along in a minute to explain to you why TSE is not a proper Tory.
To be fair to HY he sounded a bit despondant last evening, in "reasonable" mode rather than the "party machine" mode. It seems even he has his limits and is tired of the Tory drama. Time for a GE.
I missed that. If even HY has given up the Tories really are shafted.
My interpretation could be wrong, I wouldn't want to be putting words in his mouth. Despondant and tired, as well as reasonable and pleasant were my takeaways, I don't know if that equates to giving up, probably not, he is a determined character!
The other problem of course is that if Trump is elected, and then barred by the 14th, I think I'm right in saying his Veep then becomes acting president.
His running mate is likely to be even more off the wall than he is.
I keep hearing rumours of Tucker Carlson for VP. Well he would certainly end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours.
A disaster in terms of Labour communications where they’ve managed to make people think they’ve ditched their entire green plans even though they’re keeping most of them.
Whoever is advising them should be given their P45 .
They certainly can’t afford any more self inflicted disasters . I expect a big drop in their polling because of many more won’t vote or Green transfers .
One things for sure Starmer needs to get a grip and stop being pushed around by Reeves and her austerity team .
I’m totally underwhelmed by Labour and they need to stop being arrogant and think their voters will stick with them regardless of their Tory lite policies .
They’d better have a few manifesto surprises !
I agree it is a disaster.
It has allowed Sunak's ridiculous 'they have no plan' line to actually start to look like a serious political attack.
Whether it dents the polling is the huge question. It is clear Starmer's advisors were really split on this.
It will - i have no doubt - mean a peel of some votes to the Greens.
Interesting interview with Nadine Dorries on the Spectator podcast. She claims that 'the cabal' now have it out for Sunk because they've realised he's a dud and he's going to get them turfed out of Number 10. They think they can turn it around with Kemi.
I could have told them that quite some time ago - my fees are modest.
She just sees conspiracies everywhere, like a few on here. The Tories are a deeply divided party with no common purpose and little chance of electoral success. Any leader is going to quickly develop enemies and confidence lost both ways.
Just call a GE and save everyone the misery.
Perhaps, but she did predict the downfall of Sunak and the crowning of another 'the spare' in her book. Granted, that's much like predicting gravity, but there is certainly a concerted effort at this time, involving some money and some organisation.
I am deeply conflicted because I would like Sunak to go, but don't particularly want the cabal to claim another scalp.
The 'cabal' - bless.
So you are denying that groups of powerful men ever get in a room and plan things to their own self interest. You have clearly led a very sheltered life.
Counterpoint:
If there really is a secret cabal imposing and deposing Conservative leaders, why do they keep picking losers who have to be replaced every couple of years?
A disaster in terms of Labour communications where they’ve managed to make people think they’ve ditched their entire green plans even though they’re keeping most of them.
Whoever is advising them should be given their P45 .
They certainly can’t afford any more self inflicted disasters . I expect a big drop in their polling because of many more won’t vote or Green transfers .
One things for sure Starmer needs to get a grip and stop being pushed around by Reeves and her austerity team .
I’m totally underwhelmed by Labour and they need to stop being arrogant and think their voters will stick with them regardless of their Tory lite policies .
They’d better have a few manifesto surprises !
I agree with quite a lot of that except I don't expect 'a big drop in their polling' - maybe a point or two but the Tories are also doing their utmost to machine gun their own feet most days, so it will probably balance out.
Interesting interview with Nadine Dorries on the Spectator podcast. She claims that 'the cabal' now have it out for Sunk because they've realised he's a dud and he's going to get them turfed out of Number 10. They think they can turn it around with Kemi.
I could have told them that quite some time ago - my fees are modest.
She just sees conspiracies everywhere, like a few on here. The Tories are a deeply divided party with no common purpose and little chance of electoral success. Any leader is going to quickly develop enemies and confidence lost both ways.
Just call a GE and save everyone the misery.
Perhaps, but she did predict the downfall of Sunak and the crowning of another 'the spare' in her book. Granted, that's much like predicting gravity, but there is certainly a concerted effort at this time, involving some money and some organisation.
I am deeply conflicted because I would like Sunak to go, but don't particularly want the cabal to claim another scalp.
The 'cabal' - bless.
So you are denying that groups of powerful men ever get in a room and plan things to their own self interest. You have clearly led a very sheltered life.
Counterpoint:
If there really is a secret cabal imposing and deposing Conservative leaders, why do they keep picking losers who have to be replaced every couple of years?
...and why would they choose to reveal their plans to Dorries?
The case of El Salvador is an inspiring example of what strong leadership can do. Now one of the safest countries in the western hemisphere from a crime ridden hell hole.
They hate Bukele because he is proof that malaise and rot are a choice and can be overturned by will. It is not even a matter of resources - El Salvador's wealth is only a fraction of America's. What matters is only the will to act.
First major misstep by Sir Keir. He's achieved the impossible and made Rishi look more stable and statesmanlike than him. No one knows what £28 billion looks like but they know a leader without courage when they see one.There's no such thing as a game changer after two years like the last two but I'd be surprised if this doesn;t register in the polls
Seems like Musk is now letting the russians use starlink in ukraine. Mmm whose side is Musk on.
Really hope the folks in DC are paying attention to reports that Russia is using Elon Musk's Starlink in occupied Ukraine with registered accounts, as this would be not only majorly violative of sanctions but a clear national security risk.
A disaster in terms of Labour communications where they’ve managed to make people think they’ve ditched their entire green plans even though they’re keeping most of them.
Whoever is advising them should be given their P45 .
They certainly can’t afford any more self inflicted disasters . I expect a big drop in their polling because of many more won’t vote or Green transfers .
One things for sure Starmer needs to get a grip and stop being pushed around by Reeves and her austerity team .
I’m totally underwhelmed by Labour and they need to stop being arrogant and think their voters will stick with them regardless of their Tory lite policies .
They’d better have a few manifesto surprises !
I agree with quite a lot of that except I don't expect 'a big drop in their polling' - maybe a point or two but the Tories are also doing their utmost to machine gun their own feet most days, so it will probably balance out.
I simply can’t understand why they’re so terrified of Tory attacks . And this dumping of the pledge makes them look weak and directionless . Even worse the messaging around that. The Tories don’t seem to care about Labour attacks.
Even more bizarre to announce this a week before two by-elections. This is all the doing of Reeves who is obsessed with ridiculous fiscal rules which will straitjacket the party into austerity .
The whole point was we’re the change after 14 years . I actually hope the Labour vote share gets hammered over the next week to wake up the party. They need to stop this obsession with avoiding Tory attacks .
A disaster in terms of Labour communications where they’ve managed to make people think they’ve ditched their entire green plans even though they’re keeping most of them.
Whoever is advising them should be given their P45 .
They certainly can’t afford any more self inflicted disasters . I expect a big drop in their polling because of many more won’t vote or Green transfers .
One things for sure Starmer needs to get a grip and stop being pushed around by Reeves and her austerity team .
I’m totally underwhelmed by Labour and they need to stop being arrogant and think their voters will stick with them regardless of their Tory lite policies .
They’d better have a few manifesto surprises !
I agree with quite a lot of that except I don't expect 'a big drop in their polling' - maybe a point or two but the Tories are also doing their utmost to machine gun their own feet most days, so it will probably balance out.
Besides, the alternative at this point was probably get into power and fail to fulfil the pledge, which would be worse. Ask Nick Clegg if you can find him.
One of the things Maggie did very well was to spend excess off-season popularity to give herself leeway at election time. Her swingback graphs were things of beauty.
Which, from Labour's point of view, is 2028. Low politics is to underpromise now to overdeliver then.
First major misstep by Sir Keir. He's achieved the impossible and made Rishi look more stable and statesmanlike than him. No one knows what £28 billion looks like but they know a leader without courage when they see one.There's no such thing as a game changer after two years like the last two but I'd be surprised if this doesn;t register in the polls
It is gonna be very interesting to see if this hits the polling.
Maybe he will get away with it but I think it now means the Tories main campaign theme will be: he flip flops/all his promises will melt into air/can't be trusted/no plan/it's all tissue paper etc etc.
Which bizarrely is exactly what the Owen Jones brigade have been saying for a year or two.
Interesting interview with Nadine Dorries on the Spectator podcast. She claims that 'the cabal' now have it out for Sunk because they've realised he's a dud and he's going to get them turfed out of Number 10. They think they can turn it around with Kemi.
I could have told them that quite some time ago - my fees are modest.
She just sees conspiracies everywhere, like a few on here. The Tories are a deeply divided party with no common purpose and little chance of electoral success. Any leader is going to quickly develop enemies and confidence lost both ways.
Just call a GE and save everyone the misery.
Perhaps, but she did predict the downfall of Sunak and the crowning of another 'the spare' in her book. Granted, that's much like predicting gravity, but there is certainly a concerted effort at this time, involving some money and some organisation.
I am deeply conflicted because I would like Sunak to go, but don't particularly want the cabal to claim another scalp.
I would like to see Sunak go, partly because he deserves it, mostly for betting reasons. Fortunately there is no cabal, just a deeply divided party who can't get behind any leader fundamentally because they don't agree with each other about much other than blue is a lovely rosette.
I don't think the two concepts are necessarily mutually exclusive.
A disaster in terms of Labour communications where they’ve managed to make people think they’ve ditched their entire green plans even though they’re keeping most of them.
Whoever is advising them should be given their P45 .
They certainly can’t afford any more self inflicted disasters . I expect a big drop in their polling because of many more won’t vote or Green transfers .
One things for sure Starmer needs to get a grip and stop being pushed around by Reeves and her austerity team .
I’m totally underwhelmed by Labour and they need to stop being arrogant and think their voters will stick with them regardless of their Tory lite policies .
They’d better have a few manifesto surprises !
A high proportion of the several million additional votes Labour need to win the additional 123+ seats to have a majority have to come from people who usually vote Tory. There is an expectation that turnout will be lower then last time, so don't expect millions of usually non voters to vote for them; LDs and SNPs will help but it is not enough. In 2019 the Tories got 3.7 million more votes than Labour. Starmer knows all this and is carefully working not to wreck his chance.
A disaster in terms of Labour communications where they’ve managed to make people think they’ve ditched their entire green plans even though they’re keeping most of them.
Whoever is advising them should be given their P45 .
They certainly can’t afford any more self inflicted disasters . I expect a big drop in their polling because of many more won’t vote or Green transfers .
One things for sure Starmer needs to get a grip and stop being pushed around by Reeves and her austerity team .
I’m totally underwhelmed by Labour and they need to stop being arrogant and think their voters will stick with them regardless of their Tory lite policies .
They’d better have a few manifesto surprises !
I agree with quite a lot of that except I don't expect 'a big drop in their polling' - maybe a point or two but the Tories are also doing their utmost to machine gun their own feet most days, so it will probably balance out.
I simply can’t understand why they’re so terrified of Tory attacks . And this dumping of the pledge makes them look weak and directionless . Even worse the messaging around that. The Tories don’t seem to care about Labour attacks.
Even more bizarre to announce this a week before two by-elections. This is all the doing of Reeves who is obsessed with ridiculous fiscal rules which will straitjacket the party into austerity .
The whole point was we’re the change after 14 years . I actually hope the Labour vote share gets hammered over the next week to wake up the party. They need to stop this obsession with avoiding Tory attacks .
I think the likes of Mandelson have too much inflience over Labour strategy. Mandelson still thinks its the 90s.
First major misstep by Sir Keir. He's achieved the impossible and made Rishi look more stable and statesmanlike than him. No one knows what £28 billion looks like but they know a leader without courage when they see one.There's no such thing as a game changer after two years like the last two but I'd be surprised if this doesn;t register in the polls
It is gonna be very interesting to see if this hits the polling.
Maybe he will get away with it but I think it now means the Tories main campaign theme will be: he flip flops/all his promises will melt into air/can't be trusted/no plan/it's all tissue paper etc etc.
Which bizarrely is exactly what the Owen Jones brigade have been saying for a year or two.
A disaster in terms of Labour communications where they’ve managed to make people think they’ve ditched their entire green plans even though they’re keeping most of them.
Whoever is advising them should be given their P45 .
They certainly can’t afford any more self inflicted disasters . I expect a big drop in their polling because of many more won’t vote or Green transfers .
One things for sure Starmer needs to get a grip and stop being pushed around by Reeves and her austerity team .
I’m totally underwhelmed by Labour and they need to stop being arrogant and think their voters will stick with them regardless of their Tory lite policies .
They’d better have a few manifesto surprises !
I agree with quite a lot of that except I don't expect 'a big drop in their polling' - maybe a point or two but the Tories are also doing their utmost to machine gun their own feet most days, so it will probably balance out.
I simply can’t understand why they’re so terrified of Tory attacks . And this dumping of the pledge makes them look weak and directionless . Even worse the messaging around that. The Tories don’t seem to care about Labour attacks.
Even more bizarre to announce this a week before two by-elections. This is all the doing of Reeves who is obsessed with ridiculous fiscal rules which will straitjacket the party into austerity .
The whole point was we’re the change after 14 years . I actually hope the Labour vote share gets hammered over the next week to wake up the party. They need to stop this obsession with avoiding Tory attacks .
'Labour's Tax Bombshell' wrecked them in 1992. Starmer does not intend to allow this again. He is right.
A disaster in terms of Labour communications where they’ve managed to make people think they’ve ditched their entire green plans even though they’re keeping most of them.
Whoever is advising them should be given their P45 .
They certainly can’t afford any more self inflicted disasters . I expect a big drop in their polling because of many more won’t vote or Green transfers .
One things for sure Starmer needs to get a grip and stop being pushed around by Reeves and her austerity team .
I’m totally underwhelmed by Labour and they need to stop being arrogant and think their voters will stick with them regardless of their Tory lite policies .
They’d better have a few manifesto surprises !
A high proportion of the several million additional votes Labour need to win the additional 123+ seats to have a majority have to come from people who usually vote Tory. There is an expectation that turnout will be lower then last time, so don't expect millions of usually non voters to vote for them; LDs and SNPs will help but it is not enough. In 2019 the Tories got 3.7 million more votes than Labour. Starmer knows all this and is carefully working not to wreck his chance.
Sorry I don’t see it. Dropping the pledge will do more harm . Starmer should have owned the policy and come out fighting telling the Tories to basically stfu and stop lecturing them after what Truss and co did . If Reeves wouldn’t accept that then she should get lost and take her austerity team with her . The green plan was very popular with Labour voters .
First major misstep by Sir Keir. He's achieved the impossible and made Rishi look more stable and statesmanlike than him. No one knows what £28 billion looks like but they know a leader without courage when they see one.There's no such thing as a game changer after two years like the last two but I'd be surprised if this doesn;t register in the polls
So English voters looking for a leader with courage are going to vote for:
Rishi Starmer Davey Farage/Tice
I mean Farage might have the pint of Courage beer but Starmer isnt going to lose on courage to the rest of them.
A disaster in terms of Labour communications where they’ve managed to make people think they’ve ditched their entire green plans even though they’re keeping most of them.
Whoever is advising them should be given their P45 .
They certainly can’t afford any more self inflicted disasters . I expect a big drop in their polling because of many more won’t vote or Green transfers .
One things for sure Starmer needs to get a grip and stop being pushed around by Reeves and her austerity team .
I’m totally underwhelmed by Labour and they need to stop being arrogant and think their voters will stick with them regardless of their Tory lite policies .
They’d better have a few manifesto surprises !
I agree with quite a lot of that except I don't expect 'a big drop in their polling' - maybe a point or two but the Tories are also doing their utmost to machine gun their own feet most days, so it will probably balance out.
I simply can’t understand why they’re so terrified of Tory attacks . And this dumping of the pledge makes them look weak and directionless . Even worse the messaging around that. The Tories don’t seem to care about Labour attacks.
Even more bizarre to announce this a week before two by-elections. This is all the doing of Reeves who is obsessed with ridiculous fiscal rules which will straitjacket the party into austerity .
The whole point was we’re the change after 14 years . I actually hope the Labour vote share gets hammered over the next week to wake up the party. They need to stop this obsession with avoiding Tory attacks .
'Labour's Tax Bombshell' wrecked them in 1992. Starmer does not intend to allow this again. He is right.
The public are in a different place after 14 years of the Tories. Most will laugh at the Tories attacks , stupidly Labour have deluded themselves into thinking they would resonate .
A disaster in terms of Labour communications where they’ve managed to make people think they’ve ditched their entire green plans even though they’re keeping most of them.
Whoever is advising them should be given their P45 .
They certainly can’t afford any more self inflicted disasters . I expect a big drop in their polling because of many more won’t vote or Green transfers .
One things for sure Starmer needs to get a grip and stop being pushed around by Reeves and her austerity team .
I’m totally underwhelmed by Labour and they need to stop being arrogant and think their voters will stick with them regardless of their Tory lite policies .
They’d better have a few manifesto surprises !
I agree with quite a lot of that except I don't expect 'a big drop in their polling' - maybe a point or two but the Tories are also doing their utmost to machine gun their own feet most days, so it will probably balance out.
I simply can’t understand why they’re so terrified of Tory attacks . And this dumping of the pledge makes them look weak and directionless . Even worse the messaging around that. The Tories don’t seem to care about Labour attacks.
Even more bizarre to announce this a week before two by-elections. This is all the doing of Reeves who is obsessed with ridiculous fiscal rules which will straitjacket the party into austerity .
The whole point was we’re the change after 14 years . I actually hope the Labour vote share gets hammered over the next week to wake up the party. They need to stop this obsession with avoiding Tory attacks .
'Labour's Tax Bombshell' wrecked them in 1992. Starmer does not intend to allow this again. He is right.
"We had a plan but the Tories smashed up the economy" sorta works.
Suggests there was a plan, and reminds everyone that the Tories did indeed mess things up.
People are comparing the next GE to 1997 on the basis of the Tories being in power a long time and being tired, as well as the voters being tired of them, but I don’t think that line stands up to scrutiny
If you look at the size of the majority & % of vote win they had from 79 to 92
44, 144, 102, 21 7, 14.8, 11.4, 7.4
They were obviously getting gradually less popular
But this series of Tory GE wins has been
NOM, 10, NOM, 80 7.1, 6.4, 2.3, 11.5
So they’ve actually won by the biggest amount, on both measures, last time
I can see why Labour say ‘14 years of Tory govt’; it has been on paper, but in reality the Tories aren’t in for a hiding because the public have gradually had enough/are bored of them after 14 years.
First major misstep by Sir Keir. He's achieved the impossible and made Rishi look more stable and statesmanlike than him. No one knows what £28 billion looks like but they know a leader without courage when they see one.There's no such thing as a game changer after two years like the last two but I'd be surprised if this doesn;t register in the polls
It'll be interesting to see what cut-through this has with the public. The BBC's front page headline is positive spin; notice the 'defend':
"Keir Starmer defends Labour U-turn on £28bn green spending"
But these things are cumulative; single events rarely affect polling alone. Even Johnson required several stories to occur in quick succession, and he was PM, not LOTO.
A disaster in terms of Labour communications where they’ve managed to make people think they’ve ditched their entire green plans even though they’re keeping most of them.
Whoever is advising them should be given their P45 .
They certainly can’t afford any more self inflicted disasters . I expect a big drop in their polling because of many more won’t vote or Green transfers .
One things for sure Starmer needs to get a grip and stop being pushed around by Reeves and her austerity team .
I’m totally underwhelmed by Labour and they need to stop being arrogant and think their voters will stick with them regardless of their Tory lite policies .
They’d better have a few manifesto surprises !
I agree with quite a lot of that except I don't expect 'a big drop in their polling' - maybe a point or two but the Tories are also doing their utmost to machine gun their own feet most days, so it will probably balance out.
I simply can’t understand why they’re so terrified of Tory attacks . And this dumping of the pledge makes them look weak and directionless . Even worse the messaging around that. The Tories don’t seem to care about Labour attacks.
Even more bizarre to announce this a week before two by-elections. This is all the doing of Reeves who is obsessed with ridiculous fiscal rules which will straitjacket the party into austerity .
The whole point was we’re the change after 14 years . I actually hope the Labour vote share gets hammered over the next week to wake up the party. They need to stop this obsession with avoiding Tory attacks .
'Labour's Tax Bombshell' wrecked them in 1992. Starmer does not intend to allow this again. He is right.
"We had a plan but the Tories smashed up the economy" sorta works.
Suggests there was a plan, and reminds everyone that the Tories did indeed mess things up.
Yes, that works fine. Every time they are challenged its an easy divert back to the Tories - cost of living crisis and broken public services. Repeat.
I’m reminded that today is the official Yi Bang Won falling from his horse day.
“In 1404, King Taejong fell from his horse during a hunting expedition. Embarrassed, looking to his left and right, he commanded, “Do not let the historian find out about this.” To his disappointment*, the historian accompanying the hunting party included these words in the annals, in addition to a description of the king’s fall.“ Taejong Sillok Book 7. 5th year of King Taejong’s Reign (1404), February 8.
A disaster in terms of Labour communications where they’ve managed to make people think they’ve ditched their entire green plans even though they’re keeping most of them.
Whoever is advising them should be given their P45 .
They certainly can’t afford any more self inflicted disasters . I expect a big drop in their polling because of many more won’t vote or Green transfers .
One things for sure Starmer needs to get a grip and stop being pushed around by Reeves and her austerity team .
I’m totally underwhelmed by Labour and they need to stop being arrogant and think their voters will stick with them regardless of their Tory lite policies .
They’d better have a few manifesto surprises !
I agree with quite a lot of that except I don't expect 'a big drop in their polling' - maybe a point or two but the Tories are also doing their utmost to machine gun their own feet most days, so it will probably balance out.
I simply can’t understand why they’re so terrified of Tory attacks . And this dumping of the pledge makes them look weak and directionless . Even worse the messaging around that. The Tories don’t seem to care about Labour attacks.
Even more bizarre to announce this a week before two by-elections. This is all the doing of Reeves who is obsessed with ridiculous fiscal rules which will straitjacket the party into austerity .
The whole point was we’re the change after 14 years . I actually hope the Labour vote share gets hammered over the next week to wake up the party. They need to stop this obsession with avoiding Tory attacks .
The party has PTSD from a series of GE losses. It makes them ultra cautious. They won't believe they've won till it happens, despite the poll leads, and aren't minded to take any unnecessary risks. Just like 97 - with the same result hopefully.
Interesting interview with Nadine Dorries on the Spectator podcast. She claims that 'the cabal' now have it out for Sunk because they've realised he's a dud and he's going to get them turfed out of Number 10. They think they can turn it around with Kemi.
I could have told them that quite some time ago - my fees are modest.
She just sees conspiracies everywhere, like a few on here. The Tories are a deeply divided party with no common purpose and little chance of electoral success. Any leader is going to quickly develop enemies and confidence lost both ways.
Just call a GE and save everyone the misery.
Perhaps, but she did predict the downfall of Sunak and the crowning of another 'the spare' in her book. Granted, that's much like predicting gravity, but there is certainly a concerted effort at this time, involving some money and some organisation.
I am deeply conflicted because I would like Sunak to go, but don't particularly want the cabal to claim another scalp.
Do you think that Boris and Truss have some responsibility for their own downfall ?
People are comparing the next GE to 1997 on the basis of the Tories being in power a long time and being tired, as well as the voters being tired of them, but I don’t think that line stands up to scrutiny
If you look at the size of the majority & % of vote win they had from 79 to 92
44, 144, 102, 21 7, 14.8, 11.4, 7.4
They were obviously getting gradually less popular
But this series of Tory GE wins has been
NOM, 10, NOM, 80 7.1, 6.4, 2.3, 11.5
So they’ve actually won by the biggest amount, on both measures, last time
I can see why Labour say ‘14 years of Tory govt’; it has been on paper, but in reality the Tories aren’t in for a hiding because the public have gradually had enough/are bored of them after 14 years.
Last time they won primarily because of Corbyn, secondly Brexit. As someone kept posting before the most relevant election is the one before last time this time.
First major misstep by Sir Keir. He's achieved the impossible and made Rishi look more stable and statesmanlike than him. No one knows what £28 billion looks like but they know a leader without courage when they see one.There's no such thing as a game changer after two years like the last two but I'd be surprised if this doesn;t register in the polls
It'll be interesting to see what cut-through this has with the public. The BBC's front page headline is positive spin; notice the 'defend':
"Keir Starmer defends Labour U-turn on £28bn green spending"
But these things are cumulative; single events rarely affect polling alone. Even Johnson required several stories to occur in quick succession, and he was PM, not LOTO.
Anyone who followed what I’ve been saying about Sir Keir since last August, rather than dismissing it all by saying ‘well Boris did x,y, or z’ could have seen this coming a mile off
He goes back on everything he says, be it a ‘matter of principle’, an ‘important point of principle’, a promise or a pledge.
Why do you think they’ve told him to call everything a ‘mission’ or ‘ambition’ now? Because he always flip flops, it has to be something non binding
A disaster in terms of Labour communications where they’ve managed to make people think they’ve ditched their entire green plans even though they’re keeping most of them.
Whoever is advising them should be given their P45 .
They certainly can’t afford any more self inflicted disasters . I expect a big drop in their polling because of many more won’t vote or Green transfers .
One things for sure Starmer needs to get a grip and stop being pushed around by Reeves and her austerity team .
I’m totally underwhelmed by Labour and they need to stop being arrogant and think their voters will stick with them regardless of their Tory lite policies .
They’d better have a few manifesto surprises !
I agree with quite a lot of that except I don't expect 'a big drop in their polling' - maybe a point or two but the Tories are also doing their utmost to machine gun their own feet most days, so it will probably balance out.
I simply can’t understand why they’re so terrified of Tory attacks . And this dumping of the pledge makes them look weak and directionless . Even worse the messaging around that. The Tories don’t seem to care about Labour attacks.
Even more bizarre to announce this a week before two by-elections. This is all the doing of Reeves who is obsessed with ridiculous fiscal rules which will straitjacket the party into austerity .
The whole point was we’re the change after 14 years . I actually hope the Labour vote share gets hammered over the next week to wake up the party. They need to stop this obsession with avoiding Tory attacks .
The party has PTSD from a series of GE losses. It makes them ultra cautious. They won't believe they've won till it happens, despite the poll leads, and aren't minded to take any unnecessary risks. Just like 97 - with the same result hopefully.
If they continue in this manner then they will continue to have PTSD as they won’t be winning the election .
I’m reminded that today is the official Yi Bang Won falling from his horse day.
“In 1404, King Taejong fell from his horse during a hunting expedition. Embarrassed, looking to his left and right, he commanded, “Do not let the historian find out about this.” To his disappointment*, the historian accompanying the hunting party included these words in the annals, in addition to a description of the king’s fall.“ Taejong Sillok Book 7. 5th year of King Taejong’s Reign (1404), February 8.
People are comparing the next GE to 1997 on the basis of the Tories being in power a long time and being tired, as well as the voters being tired of them, but I don’t think that line stands up to scrutiny
If you look at the size of the majority & % of vote win they had from 79 to 92
44, 144, 102, 21 7, 14.8, 11.4, 7.4
They were obviously getting gradually less popular
But this series of Tory GE wins has been
NOM, 10, NOM, 80 7.1, 6.4, 2.3, 11.5
So they’ve actually won by the biggest amount, on both measures, last time
I can see why Labour say ‘14 years of Tory govt’; it has been on paper, but in reality the Tories aren’t in for a hiding because the public have gradually had enough/are bored of them after 14 years.
Last time they won primarily because of Corbyn, secondly Brexit. As someone kept posting before the most relevant election is the one before last time this time.
I agree with that, although I’d say it was much more Brexit than Corbyn, but it doesn’t really matter. The point is that it isn’t just people desperate for a change after 14 years, as the Cameron/May govts bear no resemblance to this one
Sudden thought, but assuming Stalin's leadership of the USSR dated from December 1927 (which is the earliest realistic date, although several historians would go later) then if we date Putin's leadership from 9th August 1999 he will, if still alive and in office at the end of the year, go past Stalin.
People are comparing the next GE to 1997 on the basis of the Tories being in power a long time and being tired, as well as the voters being tired of them, but I don’t think that line stands up to scrutiny
If you look at the size of the majority & % of vote win they had from 79 to 92
44, 144, 102, 21 7, 14.8, 11.4, 7.4
They were obviously getting gradually less popular
But this series of Tory GE wins has been
NOM, 10, NOM, 80 7.1, 6.4, 2.3, 11.5
So they’ve actually won by the biggest amount, on both measures, last time
I can see why Labour say ‘14 years of Tory govt’; it has been on paper, but in reality the Tories aren’t in for a hiding because the public have gradually had enough/are bored of them after 14 years.
That's true, I think. Nothing gradual about it. It's all gone tits up since BJ imploded. Less than 3 years ago they were gaining Hartlepool. Now they're here and looking at losing 200 seats. Amazing.
People are comparing the next GE to 1997 on the basis of the Tories being in power a long time and being tired, as well as the voters being tired of them, but I don’t think that line stands up to scrutiny
If you look at the size of the majority & % of vote win they had from 79 to 92
44, 144, 102, 21 7, 14.8, 11.4, 7.4
They were obviously getting gradually less popular
But this series of Tory GE wins has been
NOM, 10, NOM, 80 7.1, 6.4, 2.3, 11.5
So they’ve actually won by the biggest amount, on both measures, last time
I can see why Labour say ‘14 years of Tory govt’; it has been on paper, but in reality the Tories aren’t in for a hiding because the public have gradually had enough/are bored of them after 14 years.
Last time they won primarily because of Corbyn, secondly Brexit. As someone kept posting before the most relevant election is the one before last time this time.
I agree with that, although I’d say it was much more Brexit than Corbyn, but it doesn’t really matter. The point is that it isn’t just people desperate for a change after 14 years, as the Cameron/May govts bear no resemblance to this one
Thats part of the problem too. You are persistent on the Starmer flip flops, but if anyone votes for the Tories they really have no idea if they are getting Cameron/Boris/May/Truss/Sunak style politics which are all quite different and involve big u-turns as we move from one to the other.
People haven't suffered Sunakism long enough to be "tired" of it yet, but we have had enough of the internal drama of the Tory party.
Sir Keir in Nov 23 on the £28bn “We’re doubling down”
and today “won’t now happen”
He is so Partridge in the first clip it hurts. The intonation is perfect. There’s a line in Knowing Me Knowing You where Alan says ‘Believe me, he’s had offers’ when talking about him being faithful to his wife, that is exactly like this
A disaster in terms of Labour communications where they’ve managed to make people think they’ve ditched their entire green plans even though they’re keeping most of them.
Whoever is advising them should be given their P45 .
They certainly can’t afford any more self inflicted disasters . I expect a big drop in their polling because of many more won’t vote or Green transfers .
One things for sure Starmer needs to get a grip and stop being pushed around by Reeves and her austerity team .
I’m totally underwhelmed by Labour and they need to stop being arrogant and think their voters will stick with them regardless of their Tory lite policies .
A disaster in terms of Labour communications where they’ve managed to make people think they’ve ditched their entire green plans even though they’re keeping most of them.
Whoever is advising them should be given their P45 .
They certainly can’t afford any more self inflicted disasters . I expect a big drop in their polling because of many more won’t vote or Green transfers .
One things for sure Starmer needs to get a grip and stop being pushed around by Reeves and her austerity team .
I’m totally underwhelmed by Labour and they need to stop being arrogant and think their voters will stick with them regardless of their Tory lite policies .
They’d better have a few manifesto surprises !
I agree with quite a lot of that except I don't expect 'a big drop in their polling' - maybe a point or two but the Tories are also doing their utmost to machine gun their own feet most days, so it will probably balance out.
I simply can’t understand why they’re so terrified of Tory attacks . And this dumping of the pledge makes them look weak and directionless . Even worse the messaging around that. The Tories don’t seem to care about Labour attacks.
Even more bizarre to announce this a week before two by-elections. This is all the doing of Reeves who is obsessed with ridiculous fiscal rules which will straitjacket the party into austerity .
The whole point was we’re the change after 14 years . I actually hope the Labour vote share gets hammered over the next week to wake up the party. They need to stop this obsession with avoiding Tory attacks .
The party has PTSD from a series of GE losses. It makes them ultra cautious. They won't believe they've won till it happens, despite the poll leads, and aren't minded to take any unnecessary risks. Just like 97 - with the same result hopefully.
The election loss they are most obsessed about is the Australian Labour defeat in 2019. And you can see why: the Liberal party were extremely unpopular, Labour were way ahead in the polls, but the Liberals switched leader shortly before the election and Labour threw it away by over-promising on expensive green spending commitments.
People are comparing the next GE to 1997 on the basis of the Tories being in power a long time and being tired, as well as the voters being tired of them, but I don’t think that line stands up to scrutiny
If you look at the size of the majority & % of vote win they had from 79 to 92
44, 144, 102, 21 7, 14.8, 11.4, 7.4
They were obviously getting gradually less popular
But this series of Tory GE wins has been
NOM, 10, NOM, 80 7.1, 6.4, 2.3, 11.5
So they’ve actually won by the biggest amount, on both measures, last time
I can see why Labour say ‘14 years of Tory govt’; it has been on paper, but in reality the Tories aren’t in for a hiding because the public have gradually had enough/are bored of them after 14 years.
Last time they won primarily because of Corbyn, secondly Brexit. As someone kept posting before the most relevant election is the one before last time this time.
Heathener was the 'someone,' but it wasn't a convincing argument. In 2017 just 56% of Labour voters voted for the party because they liked Labour's manifesto - an extremely low percentage. Meanwhile 2019 was much the result you would have expected one on from a 2017 result that had not seen the late Labour surge. It was, in fact, comparable to the result Major would have got in 1992 without tactical voting.
Exactly what that means I can't tell you, but it's just not smart to say '2019 must have been an outlier and there will be a reversion to type.' Certainly not a clever betting strategy.
Am I going mad? Have I understood this? After weeks and weeks of dither Starmer has not properly dropped the £28b green investment plan but announced it will be £15b instead.
Either the Tories have an albatross they can hang on him or they don't? Now they have 1/2 an albatross?
And all this on the day after PMQs when Sunak so fucked up.
I'm beginning to believe Labour are keen to keep the Tories in the race as far as possible to keep things interesting until the campaign proper starts.
I'm struggling to make sense of this frankly.
John MacTern is right on the nail.
How can you be the 'change candidate' if literally nothing is allowed to change in case it is a target of some stupid tory twitter or FB advert?
Manifesto slogan: 'Elect Labour. We'll do exactly what the tories were doing but the deputy PM will be a woman and the CoE plays chess rather than the PM who plays football.'
That actually sounds like a much more exciting manifesto than the one I am expecting.
Sudden thought, but assuming Stalin's leadership of the USSR dated from December 1927 (which is the earliest realistic date, although several historians would go later) then if we date Putin's leadership from 9th August 1999 he will, if still alive and in office at the end of the year, go past Stalin.
Alexander II next up - 26 years and 11 days.
Whats amazing is in Russia Putin is seen as a rather competent boring figure as compared to the ogre he is seen as in the west.
Sir Keir in Nov 23 on the £28bn “We’re doubling down”
and today “won’t now happen”
He is so Partridge in the first clip it hurts. The intonation is perfect. There’s a line in Knowing Me Knowing You where Alan says ‘Believe me, he’s had offers’ when talking about him being faithful to his wife, that is exactly like this
Mr Hur's report says that it would be difficult to convict Mr Biden of improper handling because "at trial, Mr Biden would likely present himself to a jury, as he did during our interview of him, as a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory".
A disaster in terms of Labour communications where they’ve managed to make people think they’ve ditched their entire green plans even though they’re keeping most of them.
Whoever is advising them should be given their P45 .
They certainly can’t afford any more self inflicted disasters . I expect a big drop in their polling because of many more won’t vote or Green transfers .
One things for sure Starmer needs to get a grip and stop being pushed around by Reeves and her austerity team .
I’m totally underwhelmed by Labour and they need to stop being arrogant and think their voters will stick with them regardless of their Tory lite policies .
They’d better have a few manifesto surprises !
I agree with quite a lot of that except I don't expect 'a big drop in their polling' - maybe a point or two but the Tories are also doing their utmost to machine gun their own feet most days, so it will probably balance out.
I simply can’t understand why they’re so terrified of Tory attacks . And this dumping of the pledge makes them look weak and directionless . Even worse the messaging around that. The Tories don’t seem to care about Labour attacks.
Even more bizarre to announce this a week before two by-elections. This is all the doing of Reeves who is obsessed with ridiculous fiscal rules which will straitjacket the party into austerity .
The whole point was we’re the change after 14 years . I actually hope the Labour vote share gets hammered over the next week to wake up the party. They need to stop this obsession with avoiding Tory attacks .
'Labour's Tax Bombshell' wrecked them in 1992. Starmer does not intend to allow this again. He is right.
Labours had a really good day. I’m surprised how slow some of the lefty PBers are to realise this. But, maybe they are lefty’s because they are so slow. 😄
we now have the even starker choice between fiscal conservatism and responsibility of Labour’s announcements culminating in today, with the fantasy pre election tax cuts and giveaways of the Tories, which have to be reversed next year if the Tory’s do win re-election.
The Tories can campaign on Starmer being more a flip flopper than they are if they want to 😁 but they can’t campaign on Labours Green Jihad on the UK voters anymore - the tax bombshells disarmed, gone.
Sudden thought, but assuming Stalin's leadership of the USSR dated from December 1927 (which is the earliest realistic date, although several historians would go later) then if we date Putin's leadership from 9th August 1999 he will, if still alive and in office at the end of the year, go past Stalin.
Alexander II next up - 26 years and 11 days.
Whats amazing is in Russia Putin is seen as a rather competent boring figure as compared to the ogre he is seen as in the west.
Not that amazing given his tight control of the media...
Comments
Trump: I think it was an insurrection caused by Nancy Pelosi.
https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1755647384128790591
But at least he admits what it was.
Jack Smith should add it to the Jan 6 charges. A federal conviction would bar him.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Andy_Burnham
Someone who puts political philosophy above people. A shit.
I could have told them that quite some time ago - my fees are modest.
https://youtu.be/l7iOrCJ0f9w?si=kIrNdbazVyOv_BEK
Let’s agree on the bleeding obvious politics of this. The 28 billion was being used more on Tory leaflets, in their campaign, than Labours. That’s why there’s a shitting us Mister Gove 😃
The £28B Green tax bombshell is no more. It’s is extinct. It is an ex bombshell, no longer waiting to go off. It won’t blow down any curtains or disturb the choir invisible. It’s now just £5B.
And Labour WANT this plastered all over the news. And it’s working, This great news day for Labour. The BBC showed their pro labour bias, giving Starmer ten minutes right at the start of their flagship news, to bat back a couple of naff questions, and explain himself, in his own words. The BBC had framed it all up for Starmer to look more Primeministerial here, than he has ever looked.
Of course Sunak would rather campaign on the far more potent: Labours £28B Green Tax Bombshell, than try to make the argument he’s been left with, that Starmer is more flip floppy and “planless” than Sunak himself.
The whole Tory election campaign has been built about around the great ideological and ruinous madness of Labours Green Jihad, which is why the Tory’s binned their own credentials in the Autumn to maximise the clear blue water.
Today Starmer shot the Tory fox.
On the other side Coney Barrett was somewhat sceptical of Trump lawyers argument that Jan 2021 was not an insurrection. So if she went with the 3 Obama judges and Roberts Colorado would win 5-4
Anyway, yes, Joe is a worry. He seems frailer than Trump. The nail is in but you and the Trumpers carry on banging it if you like.
I've been saying for a while that I can easily see neither on the ballot in November. I still think that.
"Nuclear fusion: new record brings dream of clean energy closer"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-68233330
Sadly, JET's swansong.
Just call a GE and save everyone the misery.
Squints into the light!
I’m free. Thanks to @LostPassword @isam @Sunil_Prasannan @Pulpstar @viewcode for their efforts in securing my release.
I apologise to @TheScreamingEagles for the T… (you know you) thing. It won’t happen again.
Eg do you remember when you refused point blank to do my 'class test'? That was bantz for the ages.
Two other observations.
First is that the amount that will be spent on greenery in the 2024-8/9 Parliament is completely unaffected by this announcement. It will still, I suspect, be substantial.
Second is that the recognition that words are just words is what separates parties of opposition from parties of power. "We will spend £X on Y" is the slogan of a party that will never spend a penny on anything.
Much better not to make silly promises, just in case you have to keep them. I'm sure the Foreign Secretary would agree.
I don't know if this is at all relevant (probably only if it's Alzheimers), but there's an excellent interview with a medical doctor on YT of the benefits of MCT oil in helping a great deal with her husband's case.
https://youtu.be/A3uQ85noslk?si=GTIe81QJO3ZY62Ga
I mean, it's a bit harsh, even for a Cambridge bod.
I am deeply conflicted because I would like Sunak to go, but don't particularly want the cabal to claim another scalp.
https://www.amnesty.org.uk/press-releases/uae-member-ruling-family-implicated-torture-video
It's clear the intent to be more green than the Tories - especially Sunak - remains. And I expect in practice decisions will be made at each budget as to what is affordable.
It does leave the Tory with even fewer targets for the election.
His running mate is likely to be even more off the wall than he is.
https://themuslimvote.co.uk/
Am I going mad? Have I understood this? After weeks and weeks of dither Starmer has not properly dropped the £28b green investment plan but announced it will be £15b instead.
Either the Tories have an albatross they can hang on him or they don't? Now they have 1/2 an albatross?
And all this on the day after PMQs when Sunak so fucked up.
Wipes out any chance of trying to reach out to suburban soccer mums or whatever they are called these days.
If there really is a secret cabal imposing and deposing Conservative leaders, why do they keep picking losers who have to be replaced every couple of years?
But oddly she does not mention one strong argument, which is that something similar to the plot she alleges did happen in the Labour Party, against Jeremy Corbyn.
But yes, she did say it was Kemi's turn next.
John MacTern is right on the nail.
How can you be the 'change candidate' if literally nothing is allowed to change in case it is a target of some stupid tory twitter or FB advert?
Manifesto slogan: 'Elect Labour. We'll do exactly what the tories were doing but the deputy PM will be a woman and the CoE plays chess rather than the PM who plays football.'
Whoever is advising them should be given their P45 .
They certainly can’t afford any more self inflicted disasters . I expect a big drop in their polling because of many more won’t vote or Green transfers .
One things for sure Starmer needs to get a grip and stop being pushed around by Reeves and her austerity team .
I’m totally underwhelmed by Labour and they need to stop being arrogant and think their voters will stick with them regardless of their Tory lite policies .
They’d better have a few manifesto surprises !
They hate Bukele because he is proof that malaise and rot are a choice and can be overturned by will. It is not even a matter of resources - El Salvador's wealth is only a fraction of America's. What matters is only the will to act.
https://x.com/witte_sergei/status/1755627105122152932?s=20
And the rest of the planet...
It has allowed Sunak's ridiculous 'they have no plan' line to actually start to look like a serious political attack.
Whether it dents the polling is the huge question. It is clear Starmer's advisors were really split on this.
It will - i have no doubt - mean a peel of some votes to the Greens.
Really hope the folks in DC are paying attention to reports that Russia is using Elon Musk's Starlink in occupied Ukraine with registered accounts, as this would be not only majorly violative of sanctions but a clear national security risk.
https://x.com/markiank/status/1755642400133857646?s=20
Even more bizarre to announce this a week before two by-elections. This is all the doing of Reeves who is obsessed with ridiculous fiscal rules which will straitjacket the party into austerity .
The whole point was we’re the change after 14 years . I actually hope the Labour vote share gets hammered over the next week to wake up the party. They need to stop this obsession with avoiding Tory attacks .
One of the things Maggie did very well was to spend excess off-season popularity to give herself leeway at election time. Her swingback graphs were things of beauty.
Which, from Labour's point of view, is 2028. Low politics is to underpromise now to overdeliver then.
Not sure I like it, but it's logical.
Maybe he will get away with it but I think it now means the Tories main campaign theme will be: he flip flops/all his promises will melt into air/can't be trusted/no plan/it's all tissue paper etc etc.
Which bizarrely is exactly what the Owen Jones brigade have been saying for a year or two.
The minimum unit price (MUP) for alcohol in Scotland is to be raised from 50p to 65p, it has been announced.
Deputy First Minister Shona Robison announced the plan on Thursday in a statement to Holyrood.
This means shops in Scotland will not be able to sell a bottle of wine for less than £6.09.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-68238846
Rishi
Starmer
Davey
Farage/Tice
I mean Farage might have the pint of Courage beer but Starmer isnt going to lose on courage to the rest of them.
Suggests there was a plan, and reminds everyone that the Tories did indeed mess things up.
If you look at the size of the majority & % of vote win they had from 79 to 92
44, 144, 102, 21
7, 14.8, 11.4, 7.4
They were obviously getting gradually less popular
But this series of Tory GE wins has been
NOM, 10, NOM, 80
7.1, 6.4, 2.3, 11.5
So they’ve actually won by the biggest amount, on both measures, last time
I can see why Labour say ‘14 years of Tory govt’; it has been on paper, but in reality the Tories aren’t in for a hiding because the public have gradually had enough/are bored of them after 14 years.
"Keir Starmer defends Labour U-turn on £28bn green spending"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68244772
But these things are cumulative; single events rarely affect polling alone. Even Johnson required several stories to occur in quick succession, and he was PM, not LOTO.
“In 1404, King Taejong fell from his horse during a hunting expedition. Embarrassed, looking to his left and right, he commanded, “Do not let the historian find out about this.” To his disappointment*, the historian accompanying the hunting party included these words in the annals, in addition to a description of the king’s fall.“
Taejong Sillok Book 7. 5th year of King Taejong’s Reign (1404), February 8.
Korean royal history is really comprehensive.
*Actually, monarchs weren’t readily allowed to read their official histories.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veritable_Records_of_the_Joseon_Dynasty
He goes back on everything he says, be it a ‘matter of principle’, an ‘important point of principle’, a promise or a pledge.
Why do you think they’ve told him to call everything a ‘mission’ or ‘ambition’ now? Because he always flip flops, it has to be something non binding
Alexander II next up - 26 years and 11 days.
People haven't suffered Sunakism long enough to be "tired" of it yet, but we have had enough of the internal drama of the Tory party.
and today “won’t now happen”
He is so Partridge in the first clip it hurts. The intonation is perfect. There’s a line in Knowing Me Knowing You where Alan says ‘Believe me, he’s had offers’ when talking about him being faithful to his wife, that is exactly like this
https://x.com/timmyvoe240886/status/1755687698885464527?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
So don’t think 1992 here, think Australia 2019.
Exactly what that means I can't tell you, but it's just not smart to say '2019 must have been an outlier and there will be a reversion to type.' Certainly not a clever betting strategy.
Been getting my back up for 4 years I am sure will do the same at GE 2024 for loads of those he is targeting as convertee centrist voters.
SKSISWNBPM
Not what he wants in an election year - or at least, wouldn't be if the adversary were somebody reasonably young and sane instead of Trump.
Biden 'wilfully retained' classified files but will not be charged
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68245617
Mr Hur's report says that it would be difficult to convict Mr Biden of improper handling because "at trial, Mr Biden would likely present himself to a jury, as he did during our interview of him, as a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory".
we now have the even starker choice between fiscal conservatism and responsibility of Labour’s announcements culminating in today, with the fantasy pre election tax cuts and giveaways of the Tories, which have to be reversed next year if the Tory’s do win re-election.
The Tories can campaign on Starmer being more a flip flopper than they are if they want to 😁 but they can’t campaign on Labours Green Jihad on the UK voters anymore - the tax bombshells disarmed, gone.
Labour now have no visible pantyline