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Why Keir Starmer is the new Boris Johnson – politicalbetting.com
Why Keir Starmer is the new Boris Johnson – politicalbetting.com
Great stat. A useful reminder that, contrary to persistent myths on parts of the right, Johnson was not a popular leader in 2019 https://t.co/JC655jVuN4
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Pity though, it would have been fun. And good for Mrs T's roses.
I mean, does that imply that should a 33 year old decide to run, they can wait until later to be actually elected? No president for two years? Or the Veep as Acting President?
I suspect they will find that the amendment does apply to the presidency but the courts were wrong about Trump being an insurrectionist.
Except Thomas, who will claim it doesn't apply to Trump because
Mrs Thomas told him it shouldn'tit requires legislation to enforce despite such legislation not having been needed before.Much as I'd like to see him kicked off the ballot, it ain't happening.
Unlike saying he can run, but not serve..
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/nikki-haley-nevada-caucus-scam_n_65c4193fe4b069b665ddf259
Two weeks later it was 43-50 (-7)
Incredible!
"...When Russia reinvaded Ukraine in 2022, Poland was well placed to go non-linear, and they did. They plan to move defense expenditure to 5% of GDP and went on a spending spree: guns, helicopters, AFVs and tanks. Lots of tanks. All the tanks. The orders they have placed will give them more tanks than UK, France and Germany. Combined..."
Peter Zeihan, "Poland, After America", Zeihan on Geopolitics, 07Feb2024
"...the Polish government fast forward plans to expand their tank force uh they cut a deal with the South Koreans and have already imported 180 tanks from Korea stocks uh and there are plans underfoot already in development to manufacture another 800 and some within Poland itself uh when this is finished (and it's supposed to be finished within 3 years) it's not that Poland will have a more powerful tank force than the United Kingdom or France or Italy or Germany it's that it'll have a more powerful tank force than the United Kingdom and France and Italy and Germany..."
https://x.com/RWApodcast/status/1755630015171989681?s=20
These are the last IPSOS before the GE, so not the same stage of parliament, but…
Cameron 46
Ed 35
May 43
Jez 39
Boris 36
Jez 24
"‘Enshittification’ is coming for absolutely everything"
https://www.ft.com/content/6fb1602d-a08b-4a8c-bac0-047b7d64aba5
In the meantime, have they reported on where Sokolov and Gerasimov are?
https://www.newsweek.com/putins-top-generals-have-gone-missing-1866349
These are not just mix-ups but signs that he doesn't know what decade it is. He's simply not a viable candidate for four more years as president.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/second-mixup-week-biden-talks-meeting-dead-european-leaders-rcna137823
President Joe Biden on Wednesday twice referred to the late German chancellor Helmut Kohl instead of former Chancellor Angela Merkel while detailing a 2021 conversation at campaign events.
It was the second time this week that Biden had recalled speaking with a European leader who had died years earlier.
Replaced by Syrskyi.
Firstly, Ipsos MORI gave Johnson the worst ratings just before the 2019 election. Deltapoll actually had him at +2% net favourable, but around -10% was more typical than the Ipsos number. So he wasn't "popular" net but was probably in a better place than the quoted poll indicated. Although it should be noted Ipsos just seem a bit harsher on favourability polls generally - neither Sunak nor Starmer would be as deep in the red with another pollster probably.
Secondly, Johnson broadly divided opinion in the right way for the Conservatives as he was popular with Leavers and unpopular with Remainers - but the Leavers were in key targets while the Remainers were either in big cities (where Tories had few targets) or in the commuter belt (where Lib Dems did okay but from such a low base it didn't deliver seats - the Home Counties held their nose basically).
Thirdly, polls that offered "very favourable" and "somewhat favourable" had quite a lot of people saying "very". That tends to drive turnout. Underneath the Johnson numbers were quite a lot of people who thought he was great (and quite a few who loathed him) whereas a lot of people have pretty mild views either way on Starmer. I am not sure if that puts Starmer in a better or worse position - but it isn't broadly the same position as those numbers may indicate.
His lecture, here, a couple of weeks ago, was also very good - https://pluralistic.net/2024/01/30/go-nuts-meine-kerle/#ich-bin-ein-bratapfel
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1755622695478128947
Which indicates that if he has left, it is at his own choosing. *If* being the conditional.
But I must mention the difference between this and Russia, who seem to have lost sight of the commanders who are supposed to be running things...
If you take a new 21-year-old on a two-year visa every two years, then as the population curve eases you can restrict immigration numbers further, with no effect on the public purse.
This is how things work in my region, I’ll never be a citizen and never entitled to public support. If I’m rich, I can sponsor myself for long-term residence, but that’s on me, and I’ll need to be able to keep up the health insurance premiums.
This is of course totally incompatible with modern “human rights” legislation, and the inability to seemingly be able to deport anyone anywhere that results from it.
None of the above has anything to do with how a country treats its own native unemployables and their children.
Democracies often change political and military leadership during long wars - Britain certainly did during both World Wars (or all three, if you include the Napoleonic).
Correction: the change in leadership is happening tomorrow.
The 14th amendment makes absolutely no reference to conviction, and there is no specific offence of insurrection. So that would go well beyond the natural wording (in a way conservatve justices won't be keen on at all - the drafting cound have said "convicted of" but didn't, it said "engaged in"). It would also go beyond the original intent at the time of post-Civil War reconstruction.
It also begs too many questions - in particular, it leaves the question hanging of whether a conviction in upcoming trials would do it.
I think Colorado will certainly lose (even Kagan, a liberal justice, sounded a bit sceptical in the bit I heard, and Roberts and Kavanaugh certainly were - albeit they all need to challenge counsel). But not on those grounds, I suspect.
Seasonal Worker visa (Temporary Work)
Government Authorised Exchange visa (Temporary Work)
Creative Worker visa (Temporary Work)
Religious Worker visa (Temporary Work)
Charity Worker visa (Temporary Work)
International Agreement visa (Temporary Work)
In my view that is completely unsustainable, and attempting to sustain it will only hasten the end of the West’s global leadership as well as the rules-based global order.
Far better, in my view, to aim for an immigration policy that reflects the global reality that each person has equal worth, and we should be striving towards global equality, not entrenching inequality.
ETA: this latter approach would have the side benefit of reducing the likelihood of eg conflicts in the Middle East, coups in the Sahel, etc etc.
The whole point of the Constitution is that it affects every state.
Where I live, if you’re ordered to be deported then you’re held in custody and put on the next available plane, and if you wish to appeal then it’s done at your own expense and from overseas.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky on Thursday announced the sacking of the commander-in-chief of the country’s armed forces.
The dismissal comes after weeks of speculation over General Valery Zaluzhny’s future after the pair became embroiled in a row over strategy.
Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrsky, who led the defence of Kyiv in 2022 as well as the assault on the eastern Kharkiv region later that year, will take over as Commander-in-Chief.
Announcing the move on Telegram, Mr Zelensky wrote: The time for such an update is now.”
The statement added the president and the general had discussed “what kind of renewal the armed forces of Ukraine needs”.
In his own statement, Gen Zaluzhny wrote: “A decision was made about the need to change approaches and strategy.”
Follow the latest updates below and join the conversation in the comments section
Cameron 46-48
Ed 36-54
May 43-50
Jez 39-50
Boris 36-56
Jez 24-68
In particular, people who aren't going to vote for your party might or might not vote at all, or might decide to waste their vote. They are less likely to do that if they really hate you than if they are ambivalent.
I'd also note that quite a few people who voted Conservative had unfavourable views of Johnson. Part of that was Corbyn - Johnson was the lesser of two evils so if you're "very unfavourable" on Corbyn and "somewhat unfavourable" on Johnson, you hold your nose. Part of that is that you might just like the Conservative Party and think "well, he's a here today, gone tomorrow politician - they'll probably chuck him under a bus in a year or two". Those who took that view were remarkably prescient, whether or not they liked what followed.
And in the meantime, where are Sokolov and Gerasimov? You know, the people supposed to be helping run Russia's war?
Ed Miliband totally onside and not resigning.
Principle v Ministerial salary later this year ?
https://news.sky.com/story/labour-confirms-u-turn-on-28bn-green-spending-pledge-13066856
The fact is resigning would achieve f*** all other than making a Labour win at the next election less likely, and he'd probably prefer a tactical retreat and seek to make the case for spending from around the cabinet table rather than two rows back in the House of Commons.
You’ve obviously missed the bit where this governments tax cuts this year are not for keeps, whichever party wins, these pre election tax cuts have to be reversed next year.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/hunt-tax-cut-reversed-election-ifs-b2484584.html
What part of no money left for foreseeable future, so thank God for fiscal conservatism, honesty and reality from someone don’t you understand, Taz? 😀
The difference is what the other 58% do. If they really train their fire on the blue team, with lots of tactical efficiency, the Conservatives are in trouble. If Labour hate the Liberals (2015) or Liberals don't trust Labour (1983, 2019), the Conservatives are on easy street.
That's I think why net scores are useful. In our system, the extent to which voters of the second and third parties hate each other compared with hating the first party has a huge influence on the results in a given constituency. Forty percent wins against a 30-30 split, but not a 50-10 one.
And then there's the net (red v blue) net (positive v negative) thing, which might be the best predictor of the lot. Johnson wasn't popular in 2019, just a lot more popular than the alternative.
Starmer isn't popular in 2024...
So fewer people like him is all we can say for sure I suppose.
Bet on low turnout? Not with me though, I’m not inviting your double crossing, snideyness back
Not a chance. It would excite the political anoraks for a week and be forgotten by the time the election comes round.
If the earth were 10 times its current size (and ignore the gravitational and physiological implications of that for a moment) we would probably have one or two countries that were already similar in size, population and possibly linguistic diversity to the whole global population of this earth. What keeps us up at the c.200 country mark is the fact that as of now the earth is humans' whole sphere of existence.
Rule of law, innit?
Brave Sir Keir runs away again. The inveterate invertebrate shows he has no plan & there is no principle he won’t ditch. He’s the jellyfish of politics - transparent, spineless & swept along by the tide. Far from taking Britain forward, Labour would take us back to Square One
https://x.com/michaelgove/status/1755603834746073560?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
SCOTUS has found its off-ramp. Trump's gonna be back on the ballot because states can't bar federal candidates from office under Sec 3.
https://twitter.com/MikeSacksEsq/status/1755628075557999047
Great thread, which captures the style of the various ghouls on the bench pretty well.
Politico concurs.
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/02/08/trump-supreme-court
(Trump’s lawyer is again shit, but it doesn’t matter, as the justices made his arguments for him.)
(R) Trump: 45% [+1]
(D) Biden: 40% [-2]
[+/- Change vs Jan. 26-28]
—
GOP Primary
• Donald Trump: 80% (+62)
• Nikki Haley: 18%
—
6,138 RV | GOP=3,752 LV | Feb. 4-6
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1755405702393213063
Both shits, though Erdogan an ever so slightly less unreliable ally. With slightly more justification for his delusions of grandeur.
The suggestion that this could be decided once and if he were elected strikes me as a more credible way forward albeit a clear and egregious derogation of duty inviting possible chaos. It would also put the court in a deeply invidious position if he were to win the election but then denied the right to serve. Not saying they won't but it would be a very poor resolution of the case.
AS someone put a week ago a December election might be Sunaks best chance if the weather can even up the stay at homes.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2024/02/08/blue-cards-to-be-introduced-for-football-sin-bins/
Just give them a sin bin for a yellow card, and introduce the rule of only the captain talking to the ref.
I don't wanna break my heart over you
I'm building a wall
Every day it's getting higher
This time I won't end up another victim of Gove
Remember how he first burst onto the public consciousness as a satirical young fogey. Channel 4, A Stab in the Dark or something like that? It would be interesting to see him return to that role, at least briefly.
(But who is Back To Square One appealing to, apart from ministers who hate the thought that their legacy is destined for the bin? Undoing the last decade or so would go down a treat with most, I suspect.)
Am slightly surprised his heart is still in it though, so fair play to him. A non-zero chance of him becoming leader in future, I guess. Assuming he hangs on to his seat (he ought to).
I have managed to hijack TSEs account for the header ie
WHY KEIR STARMER IS THE NEW BORIS JOHNSON
My sub header was Both lying charlatans with no principles or values
TSE has hijacked it back with the bollocks below the header trying to prove SKS is popular
No, no more kuntibula/eyesam betting. Lessons learnt mutually there.
His timings as bad as Sunaks.
If they do rule that way, though, it raises the question of what happens if this all isn’t theoretical - I.e, if Trump is permitted to contest and is elected.
They are punting because they don’t want to make the determination. Hopefully the election will come along and save them from having to wade into that, will be the way they’ll see it
https://twitter.com/GNDRising/status/1755646018564075697
https://twitter.com/Agitate4Change/status/1755629788314599717