Fantastic news . Donald Tusk has been elected PM of Poland . A truly lovely man who is a true friend of the UK. The war against a women’s right to choose and the gay community is over.
And an immigration policy to the right of Suella Braverman.
Curious to see the Johnsonian diehards and the Corbynites speaking almost with one voice. It's almost as though the past is an anchor trying to pull us back.
Deltapoll and Redfield & Wilton have gone in different directions this evening - for Deltapoll, it's their lowest Labour VI since March 2022. R&W are much more within their comfort zone with an 18-point Labour lead. There's no indication of the fall in Labour share going straight back to the Conservatives - it's being shared through all parties and perhaps none.
Interesting to hear Sunak's evidence at the Covid hearing today. I'm not interested in EOTHO as I am in the extent of fraudulent appropriation of Covid funds by individuals and organisations. It's clear billions were handed out often on the most rudimentary evidence of need and unfortunately the opportunity to get free money from the Government has proven too much for some. I've seen figures varying from £5 billion to £15 billion in terms of public money given out either in error or obtained via fraud. Let's hope someone asks the former Chancellor of the Exchequer about that.
And if frontline services had not got PPI, some would have been screeching about how the government had procurement so much in a bureaucracy they let people die.
There was a worldwide demand for goods *in a hurry*. 'Normal' processes would never fit the situation.
Was there waste? Certainly. Was there fraud? Some, perhaps. The legal eagles will sort that out. Did frontline services get PPI they would not otherwise have got? IMV yes.
The question is who you weigh those up. And I might suggest the way you weigh them up now is very different from how they would have been weighed up in April or May 2020.
This is such a false dichotomy.
We wasted oodles of money and *precious time* procuring PPE from people with no experience who never supplied nor could have supplied what we wanted. While actual suppliers got left out because they didn't know the right MP.
Reading BJO's contributions I can imagine what the Novara Media election night broadcast will be. Cheering on every tight Tory defence, only nice Mr Sunak can save the country from that Tory bastard Starmer.
Or in my case cheering every Green MP, Independent win in Islington North and every LFI failure.
Fantastic news . Donald Tusk has been elected PM of Poland . A truly lovely man who is a true friend of the UK. The war against a women’s right to choose and the gay community is over.
And an immigration policy to the right of Suella Braverman.
I see you dug that out again ! Tusk has just saved Polish democracy and was truly heart broken at the UK leaving the EU . He will always be loved by Remainers .
Fantastic news . Donald Tusk has been elected PM of Poland . A truly lovely man who is a true friend of the UK. The war against a women’s right to choose and the gay community is over.
And an immigration policy to the right of Suella Braverman.
Fantastic news . Donald Tusk has been elected PM of Poland . A truly lovely man who is a true friend of the UK. The war against a women’s right to choose and the gay community is over.
The President of Poland however is supported by Law and Justice, not Tusk's party, even if Tusk's party now controls the legislature
Curious to see the Johnsonian diehards and the Corbynites speaking almost with one voice. It's almost as though the past is an anchor trying to pull us back.
Deltapoll and Redfield & Wilton have gone in different directions this evening - for Deltapoll, it's their lowest Labour VI since March 2022. R&W are much more within their comfort zone with an 18-point Labour lead. There's no indication of the fall in Labour share going straight back to the Conservatives - it's being shared through all parties and perhaps none.
Interesting to hear Sunak's evidence at the Covid hearing today. I'm not interested in EOTHO as I am in the extent of fraudulent appropriation of Covid funds by individuals and organisations. It's clear billions were handed out often on the most rudimentary evidence of need and unfortunately the opportunity to get free money from the Government has proven too much for some. I've seen figures varying from £5 billion to £15 billion in terms of public money given out either in error or obtained via fraud. Let's hope someone asks the former Chancellor of the Exchequer about that.
And if frontline services had not got PPI, some would have been screeching about how the government had procurement so much in a bureaucracy they let people die.
There was a worldwide demand for goods *in a hurry*. 'Normal' processes would never fit the situation.
Was there waste? Certainly. Was there fraud? Some, perhaps. The legal eagles will sort that out. Did frontline services get PPI they would not otherwise have got? IMV yes.
The question is who you weigh those up. And I might suggest the way you weigh them up now is very different from how they would have been weighed up in April or May 2020.
This is such a false dichotomy.
We wasted oodles of money and *precious time* procuring PPE from people with no experience who never supplied nor could have supplied what we wanted. While actual suppliers got left out because they didn't know the right MP.
Yet look at what Labour were calling for at the time, with equally untried companies being named as potential sources. "Why haven't you tried them?"
"While actual suppliers got left out because they didn't know the right MP."
Source, please, as I haven't heard that. Remember, virtually every country in the world was after the *same* PPE.
Out of interest, why does the ERG still exist? I thought its only purpose was to investigate and expose the horrors of Britain's EU membership.
As long as Europe exists - hovering there menacingly with its beady eye upon us, waiting to pounce - so too will the ERG. It is their duty. We should be grateful to this band of brothers, to these two dozen men and women, to these patriots. Never has so much been owed by so many to so few.
And Francois is still its ‘leader’ despite being thrown out of the Tories for being too naughty even for them?
Has Francois been thrown out of the Tory party? News to me.
Probably confusing him with Rosindell. But Rosindell also hasn't been booted. He probably now pairs with Nick Brown
Totally O/t but for the first time in my life we’ve had a Christmas card from the Labour Party. Hand delivered, but we’ve no idea who it was.
Recently Mrs J had a box of very expensive chocolates and another gift delivered. It was unsigned, and we did not know who it was from.
It turned out to be her company's 'reward' for five years' service.
The longest she has been in any job. Job security, eh?
I think I should demand my boss send me a box of chocolates and a gift voucher to celebrate my 18 months of tireless work building the company's international reputation and increasing its turno...
Reading BJO's contributions I can imagine what the Novara Media election night broadcast will be. Cheering on every tight Tory defence, only nice Mr Sunak can save the country from that Tory bastard Starmer.
Or in my case cheering every Green MP, Independent win in Islington North and every LFI failure.
Boost for Sunak as the One Nation Caucus backs his Rwanda bill, after earlier opposition from the hard right ERG.
'The One Nation caucus of MPs has said it would recommend that its members back the Safety of Rwanda Bill in the vote tomorrow.
However, the group says it remains "concerned" about any future amendments which would mean the UK government breaches law and its international obligations and "would oppose such amendments in the House of Commons".
Damian Green, chair of the group, said: "We have taken the decision that the most important thing at this stage is to support the bill despite our real concerns.
"We strongly urge the government to stand firm against any attempt to amend the bill in a way that would make it unacceptable to those who believe that support for the rule of law is a basic Conservative principle.
The group is made up of 106 MPs on the more centrist wing of the Conservative party.'
Fantastic news . Donald Tusk has been elected PM of Poland . A truly lovely man who is a true friend of the UK. The war against a women’s right to choose and the gay community is over.
The President of Poland however is supported by Law and Justice, not Tusk's party, even if Tusk's party now controls the legislature
Without an arse licking state media on his side he’ll be out at the next Presidential election . It’s a miracle the opposition won given the gerrymandering and the field was stacked against them .
Given only 30 Tory MPs are in the ERG and there is a Tory majority of 80 in the Commons, Sunak can now get his Rwanda bill over the line tomorrow
Only 30? They've dropped quite a bit.
But even if true the passing of the bill doesn't feel like a significant moment. This is all about winning certain groups of people over, and it hasn't won over one of the party factions which believes itself to understand those people the most, and probably does.
Curious to see the Johnsonian diehards and the Corbynites speaking almost with one voice. It's almost as though the past is an anchor trying to pull us back.
Deltapoll and Redfield & Wilton have gone in different directions this evening - for Deltapoll, it's their lowest Labour VI since March 2022. R&W are much more within their comfort zone with an 18-point Labour lead. There's no indication of the fall in Labour share going straight back to the Conservatives - it's being shared through all parties and perhaps none.
Interesting to hear Sunak's evidence at the Covid hearing today. I'm not interested in EOTHO as I am in the extent of fraudulent appropriation of Covid funds by individuals and organisations. It's clear billions were handed out often on the most rudimentary evidence of need and unfortunately the opportunity to get free money from the Government has proven too much for some. I've seen figures varying from £5 billion to £15 billion in terms of public money given out either in error or obtained via fraud. Let's hope someone asks the former Chancellor of the Exchequer about that.
The main and key difference being, Tories were doing much better under Boris, who won them a huge majority, and Labour were doing much worse under Jezza, who lost in a landslide
His bad GE still saw a better vote share than EdM & Gordo managed though
"The main and key difference being, Tories were doing much better under Boris"
Surely that was until Boris made a series of terrible, albeit minor, mistakes, that were utterly in character, and which saw his polling plunge?
And it was SKS versus Boris, not Jezza (*). And admittedly, SKS was not doing that well against Boris, until Boris did a Boris? But Boris doing a Boris was, sadly for him, a certainty.
(*) I wish there was a better nicknake for Corbyn than 'Jezza'. Jezza implies matiness and niceness. It doesn't encompass the sheer nastiness and political shittiness of the man.
Boost for Sunak as the One Nation Caucus backs his Rwanda bill, after earlier opposition from the hard right ERG.
'The One Nation caucus of MPs has said it would recommend that its members back the Safety of Rwanda Bill in the vote tomorrow.
However, the group says it remains "concerned" about any future amendments which would mean the UK government breaches law and its international obligations and "would oppose such amendments in the House of Commons".
Damian Green, chair of the group, said: "We have taken the decision that the most important thing at this stage is to support the bill despite our real concerns.
"We strongly urge the government to stand firm against any attempt to amend the bill in a way that would make it unacceptable to those who believe that support for the rule of law is a basic Conservative principle.
The group is made up of 106 MPs on the more centrist wing of the Conservative party.'
Given only 30 Tory MPs are in the ERG and there is a Tory majority of 80 in the Commons, Sunak can now get his Rwanda bill over the line tomorrow
It's not just the ERG though is it? What about the New Conservatives (30 MPs), The Common Sense Group (sic) (30 MPs), and The Conservative Growth Group (50 MPs)?
Boost for Sunak as the One Nation Caucus backs his Rwanda bill, after earlier opposition from the hard right ERG.
'The One Nation caucus of MPs has said it would recommend that its members back the Safety of Rwanda Bill in the vote tomorrow.
However, the group says it remains "concerned" about any future amendments which would mean the UK government breaches law and its international obligations and "would oppose such amendments in the House of Commons".
Damian Green, chair of the group, said: "We have taken the decision that the most important thing at this stage is to support the bill despite our real concerns.
"We strongly urge the government to stand firm against any attempt to amend the bill in a way that would make it unacceptable to those who believe that support for the rule of law is a basic Conservative principle.
The group is made up of 106 MPs on the more centrist wing of the Conservative party.'
Given only 30 Tory MPs are in the ERG and there is a Tory majority of 80 in the Commons, Sunak can now get his Rwanda bill over the line tomorrow
It's not just the ERG though is it? What about the New Conservatives (30 MPs), The Common Sense Group (sic) (30 MPs), and The Conservative Growth Group (50 MPs)?
A lot of those overlap with the ERG and of course it will be a 3 line whip to reduce defections
Reading BJO's contributions I can imagine what the Novara Media election night broadcast will be. Cheering on every tight Tory defence, only nice Mr Sunak can save the country from that Tory bastard Starmer.
Or in my case cheering every Green MP, Independent win in Islington North and every LFI failure.
Curious to see the Johnsonian diehards and the Corbynites speaking almost with one voice. It's almost as though the past is an anchor trying to pull us back.
Deltapoll and Redfield & Wilton have gone in different directions this evening - for Deltapoll, it's their lowest Labour VI since March 2022. R&W are much more within their comfort zone with an 18-point Labour lead. There's no indication of the fall in Labour share going straight back to the Conservatives - it's being shared through all parties and perhaps none.
Interesting to hear Sunak's evidence at the Covid hearing today. I'm not interested in EOTHO as I am in the extent of fraudulent appropriation of Covid funds by individuals and organisations. It's clear billions were handed out often on the most rudimentary evidence of need and unfortunately the opportunity to get free money from the Government has proven too much for some. I've seen figures varying from £5 billion to £15 billion in terms of public money given out either in error or obtained via fraud. Let's hope someone asks the former Chancellor of the Exchequer about that.
The main and key difference being, Tories were doing much better under Boris, who won them a huge majority, and Labour were doing much worse under Jezza, who lost in a landslide
His bad GE still saw a better vote share than EdM & Gordo managed though
"The main and key difference being, Tories were doing much better under Boris"
Surely that was until Boris made a series of terrible, albeit minor, mistakes, that were utterly in character, and which saw his polling plunge?
And it was SKS versus Boris, not Jezza (*). And admittedly, SKS was not doing that well against Boris, until Boris did a Boris? But Boris doing a Boris was, sadly for him, a certainty.
(*) I wish there was a better nicknake for Corbyn than 'Jezza'. Jezza implies matiness and niceness. It doesn't encompass the sheer nastiness and political shittiness of the man.
The last polls for Boris vs Starmer best PM/the Tories VI were better than Rishi vs Starmer best PM/The Tories VI are doing now, and they were obviously taken at bad times for him. The leader ratings were pretty similar, Boris more GPs
I meant that vs Boris, Sir Keir was doing better than Corbyn did
Reading BJO's contributions I can imagine what the Novara Media election night broadcast will be. Cheering on every tight Tory defence, only nice Mr Sunak can save the country from that Tory bastard Starmer.
Or in my case cheering every Green MP, Independent win in Islington North and every LFI failure.
@bigjohnowls please explain. Lookin' good for the Greens especially.
Latest literature from the Greens tells me they are looking to get "up to 22 MPs"
I know being bold can pay off sometimes, but like Jo Swinson there are downsides to being too bold in your claims.
The range in 'Up to 22' includes Zero. The expression is a well worn advertisers con. They will not disappoint on the up or down side. But you won't go far wrong with 'Approximately Zero'.
Reading BJO's contributions I can imagine what the Novara Media election night broadcast will be. Cheering on every tight Tory defence, only nice Mr Sunak can save the country from that Tory bastard Starmer.
Or in my case cheering every Green MP, Independent win in Islington North and every LFI failure.
@bigjohnowls please explain. Lookin' good for the Greens especially.
Latest literature from the Greens tells me they are looking to get "up to 22 MPs"
I know being bold can pay off sometimes, but like Jo Swinson there are downsides to being too bold in your claims.
The range in 'Up to 22' includes Zero. The expression is a well worn advertisers con. They will not disappoint on the up or down side. But you won't go far wrong with 'Approximately Zero'.
They won't disappoint on the up or down side technically, but it is a well worn con and they know and we know the implication is they will get many more than they have now, even if they don't get that close to 22. So they will very easily disappoint those who respond as they want them to respond, by thinking they will get many seats.
Boost for Sunak as the One Nation Caucus backs his Rwanda bill, after earlier opposition from the hard right ERG.
'The One Nation caucus of MPs has said it would recommend that its members back the Safety of Rwanda Bill in the vote tomorrow.
However, the group says it remains "concerned" about any future amendments which would mean the UK government breaches law and its international obligations and "would oppose such amendments in the House of Commons".
Damian Green, chair of the group, said: "We have taken the decision that the most important thing at this stage is to support the bill despite our real concerns.
"We strongly urge the government to stand firm against any attempt to amend the bill in a way that would make it unacceptable to those who believe that support for the rule of law is a basic Conservative principle.
The group is made up of 106 MPs on the more centrist wing of the Conservative party.'
Given only 30 Tory MPs are in the ERG and there is a Tory majority of 80 in the Commons, Sunak can now get his Rwanda bill over the line tomorrow
It's not just the ERG though is it? What about the New Conservatives (30 MPs), The Common Sense Group (sic) (30 MPs), and The Conservative Growth Group (50 MPs)?
A lot of those overlap with the ERG and of course it will be a 3 line whip to reduce defections
Yes, difficult to know how many right-wingers are in more than one group.
Losing the whip with an election looming presumably means a serious risk of losing the nomination for your seat, so that's potentially a powerful threat. However, it didn't stop the 2019 Brexit rebels, and as many of these MPs are probably losing their seats at the next GE anyway, so may be beyond caring.
Curious to see the Johnsonian diehards and the Corbynites speaking almost with one voice. It's almost as though the past is an anchor trying to pull us back.
Deltapoll and Redfield & Wilton have gone in different directions this evening - for Deltapoll, it's their lowest Labour VI since March 2022. R&W are much more within their comfort zone with an 18-point Labour lead. There's no indication of the fall in Labour share going straight back to the Conservatives - it's being shared through all parties and perhaps none.
Interesting to hear Sunak's evidence at the Covid hearing today. I'm not interested in EOTHO as I am in the extent of fraudulent appropriation of Covid funds by individuals and organisations. It's clear billions were handed out often on the most rudimentary evidence of need and unfortunately the opportunity to get free money from the Government has proven too much for some. I've seen figures varying from £5 billion to £15 billion in terms of public money given out either in error or obtained via fraud. Let's hope someone asks the former Chancellor of the Exchequer about that.
The main and key difference being, Tories were doing much better under Boris, who won them a huge majority, and Labour were doing much worse under Jezza, who lost in a landslide
His bad GE still saw a better vote share than EdM & Gordo managed though
"The main and key difference being, Tories were doing much better under Boris"
Surely that was until Boris made a series of terrible, albeit minor, mistakes, that were utterly in character, and which saw his polling plunge?
And it was SKS versus Boris, not Jezza (*). And admittedly, SKS was not doing that well against Boris, until Boris did a Boris? But Boris doing a Boris was, sadly for him, a certainty.
(*) I wish there was a better nicknake for Corbyn than 'Jezza'. Jezza implies matiness and niceness. It doesn't encompass the sheer nastiness and political shittiness of the man.
There does seem to be a discernible medium term trend downwards in Labour VI, even as Tory support bounces around the mid to high 20s. The absolute gaps remain big but the peaks of Labour support are much lower than they were. What is causing that?
I don't buy that it's the "not sealed the deal" phenomenon. Labour has as many (or as few) well known policies now as it had a year ago when it was touching 50% in the polls. And I can't see it being to do with Starmer support for Israel and apparent prevarication over Gaza. That's surely only an issue for a small minority of the Left, and we would expect to see Green VI rising if this were really a big driver.
I do wonder if it's actually a measure of some (very limited) success by the conservatives in getting bread and butter issues off the table and moving the news agenda back on to culture war and immigration. It might not be helping the Tories massively given all the internal chaos, but it's not notably harming their support either. Whereas for Labour I wonder if it's unhelpful.
I mentioned they could be losing support to Reform. How? Take your average disgruntled voter somewhere in the Red Wall who thinks the country's going to the dogs and the Tories deserve a kicking. A year or 6 months ago they might have argued that the country's going to the dogs because inflation is rampant, nobody's getting a decent pay rise, the roads are full of pot holes and it takes 6 months to get seen on the NHS. Now they might be saying the country's going to the dogs because the government has failed to stop the boats or control immigration. Before the obvious place to move your vote would be Labour. Now perhaps that's Reform.
Once a voter has shifted to Reform is it possible the Tories could then win them back rather than them slipping back to Labour? Possibly, if they can then make the next election about cultural issues rather than the pound in your pocket.
All this seasoned with just a touch of Labour not seeming to be any different on economic or public spending policy now.
I would say Labour needs the political weather to move back on to economy and (particularly) crumbling public services, and it needs to offer something for people to grab on to in this respect.
It could be somewhat similar to the months leading up to June 2010, when Conservative support began to slip.
Putting in Labour 37%, to 30% Conservative still gives Labour a majority of 50, because the Lib Dems only win a third of the seats they got in 2010.
37-30 is quite plausible...
However the next 33% has to go somewhere. If we give 4 percentage points to the SNP (which may be generous), that leaves a staggering 29% to split between Reform, the LibDems, Green and Other.
That would reflect the public not much liking either alternative.
That said, I suspect if could be more like 39/32, with both Reform and Greens going to Conservative and Labour respectively.
The electorate has been volatile since 2010, with Con/Lab getting 67% in 2010, 70% in 2015, 83% in 2017 and 78% in 2019, but likely dropping back in this coming election.
For chunks of the electorate SKS is simply more of the same policies weve had since 1997 irrespective of who is in office. If you were a loser in the globalisation push why would you vote for more ?
Globalisation didn't start for the UK in 1997.
It was a major inflection point though.
Remember that James Goldsmith's Euroscepticism was primarily in opposition to their turn towards global free trade which he saw as shattering the balance between capital and labour in the developed world.
Did he really. Workers of the world unite and listen to Jimmy Goldsmith.
Curious to see the Johnsonian diehards and the Corbynites speaking almost with one voice. It's almost as though the past is an anchor trying to pull us back.
Deltapoll and Redfield & Wilton have gone in different directions this evening - for Deltapoll, it's their lowest Labour VI since March 2022. R&W are much more within their comfort zone with an 18-point Labour lead. There's no indication of the fall in Labour share going straight back to the Conservatives - it's being shared through all parties and perhaps none.
Interesting to hear Sunak's evidence at the Covid hearing today. I'm not interested in EOTHO as I am in the extent of fraudulent appropriation of Covid funds by individuals and organisations. It's clear billions were handed out often on the most rudimentary evidence of need and unfortunately the opportunity to get free money from the Government has proven too much for some. I've seen figures varying from £5 billion to £15 billion in terms of public money given out either in error or obtained via fraud. Let's hope someone asks the former Chancellor of the Exchequer about that.
The main and key difference being, Tories were doing much better under Boris, who won them a huge majority, and Labour were doing much worse under Jezza, who lost in a landslide
His bad GE still saw a better vote share than EdM & Gordo managed though
"The main and key difference being, Tories were doing much better under Boris"
Surely that was until Boris made a series of terrible, albeit minor, mistakes, that were utterly in character, and which saw his polling plunge?
And it was SKS versus Boris, not Jezza (*). And admittedly, SKS was not doing that well against Boris, until Boris did a Boris? But Boris doing a Boris was, sadly for him, a certainty.
(*) I wish there was a better nicknake for Corbyn than 'Jezza'. Jezza implies matiness and niceness. It doesn't encompass the sheer nastiness and political shittiness of the man.
The last polls for Boris vs Starmer best PM/the Tories VI were better than Rishi vs Starmer best PM/The Tories VI are doing now, and they were obviously taken at bad times for him. The leader ratings were pretty similar, Boris more GPs
I meant that vs Boris, Sir Keir was doing better than Corbyn did
I agree that Boris was 'better' electorally than either Truss or Sunak. My point is that Boris's downfall is his own fault, and hard-baked in when he became PM.
His biggest fault was not changing his character when he became PM. Admittedly, changing character is hard to do...
Curious to see the Johnsonian diehards and the Corbynites speaking almost with one voice. It's almost as though the past is an anchor trying to pull us back.
Deltapoll and Redfield & Wilton have gone in different directions this evening - for Deltapoll, it's their lowest Labour VI since March 2022. R&W are much more within their comfort zone with an 18-point Labour lead. There's no indication of the fall in Labour share going straight back to the Conservatives - it's being shared through all parties and perhaps none.
Interesting to hear Sunak's evidence at the Covid hearing today. I'm not interested in EOTHO as I am in the extent of fraudulent appropriation of Covid funds by individuals and organisations. It's clear billions were handed out often on the most rudimentary evidence of need and unfortunately the opportunity to get free money from the Government has proven too much for some. I've seen figures varying from £5 billion to £15 billion in terms of public money given out either in error or obtained via fraud. Let's hope someone asks the former Chancellor of the Exchequer about that.
The main and key difference being, Tories were doing much better under Boris, who won them a huge majority, and Labour were doing much worse under Jezza, who lost in a landslide
His bad GE still saw a better vote share than EdM & Gordo managed though
"The main and key difference being, Tories were doing much better under Boris"
Surely that was until Boris made a series of terrible, albeit minor, mistakes, that were utterly in character, and which saw his polling plunge?
And it was SKS versus Boris, not Jezza (*). And admittedly, SKS was not doing that well against Boris, until Boris did a Boris? But Boris doing a Boris was, sadly for him, a certainty.
(*) I wish there was a better nicknake for Corbyn than 'Jezza'. Jezza implies matiness and niceness. It doesn't encompass the sheer nastiness and political shittiness of the man.
I remain dubious of the One Nation Tories following through with their threat to vote against amendments that breach international law . I’m sure they’ll find a way to justify that . They just seem a bit too Mary Poppins . If by a miracle they do vote against those amendments then unless the right wing loons back down the Bill is going nowhere .
Curious to see the Johnsonian diehards and the Corbynites speaking almost with one voice. It's almost as though the past is an anchor trying to pull us back.
Deltapoll and Redfield & Wilton have gone in different directions this evening - for Deltapoll, it's their lowest Labour VI since March 2022. R&W are much more within their comfort zone with an 18-point Labour lead. There's no indication of the fall in Labour share going straight back to the Conservatives - it's being shared through all parties and perhaps none.
Interesting to hear Sunak's evidence at the Covid hearing today. I'm not interested in EOTHO as I am in the extent of fraudulent appropriation of Covid funds by individuals and organisations. It's clear billions were handed out often on the most rudimentary evidence of need and unfortunately the opportunity to get free money from the Government has proven too much for some. I've seen figures varying from £5 billion to £15 billion in terms of public money given out either in error or obtained via fraud. Let's hope someone asks the former Chancellor of the Exchequer about that.
The main and key difference being, Tories were doing much better under Boris, who won them a huge majority, and Labour were doing much worse under Jezza, who lost in a landslide
His bad GE still saw a better vote share than EdM & Gordo managed though
"The main and key difference being, Tories were doing much better under Boris"
Surely that was until Boris made a series of terrible, albeit minor, mistakes, that were utterly in character, and which saw his polling plunge?
And it was SKS versus Boris, not Jezza (*). And admittedly, SKS was not doing that well against Boris, until Boris did a Boris? But Boris doing a Boris was, sadly for him, a certainty.
(*) I wish there was a better nicknake for Corbyn than 'Jezza'. Jezza implies matiness and niceness. It doesn't encompass the sheer nastiness and political shittiness of the man.
I remain dubious of the One Nation Tories following through with their threat to vote against amendments that breach international law . I’m sure they’ll find a way to justify that . They just seem a bit too Mary Poppins . If by a miracle they do vote against those amendments then unless the right wing loons back down the Bill is going nowhere .
As others have said, the Rwanda Bill will sail (not fly) through tomorrow as it's only the Second Reading. If there's fun to be had, it will be in the New Year when it's debated and amendments can be laid. Can't wait.
There does seem to be a discernible medium term trend downwards in Labour VI, even as Tory support bounces around the mid to high 20s. The absolute gaps remain big but the peaks of Labour support are much lower than they were. What is causing that?
I don't buy that it's the "not sealed the deal" phenomenon. Labour has as many (or as few) well known policies now as it had a year ago when it was touching 50% in the polls. And I can't see it being to do with Starmer support for Israel and apparent prevarication over Gaza. That's surely only an issue for a small minority of the Left, and we would expect to see Green VI rising if this were really a big driver.
I do wonder if it's actually a measure of some (very limited) success by the conservatives in getting bread and butter issues off the table and moving the news agenda back on to culture war and immigration. It might not be helping the Tories massively given all the internal chaos, but it's not notably harming their support either. Whereas for Labour I wonder if it's unhelpful.
I mentioned they could be losing support to Reform. How? Take your average disgruntled voter somewhere in the Red Wall who thinks the country's going to the dogs and the Tories deserve a kicking. A year or 6 months ago they might have argued that the country's going to the dogs because inflation is rampant, nobody's getting a decent pay rise, the roads are full of pot holes and it takes 6 months to get seen on the NHS. Now they might be saying the country's going to the dogs because the government has failed to stop the boats or control immigration. Before the obvious place to move your vote would be Labour. Now perhaps that's Reform.
Once a voter has shifted to Reform is it possible the Tories could then win them back rather than them slipping back to Labour? Possibly, if they can then make the next election about cultural issues rather than the pound in your pocket.
All this seasoned with just a touch of Labour not seeming to be any different on economic or public spending policy now.
I would say Labour needs the political weather to move back on to economy and (particularly) crumbling public services, and it needs to offer something for people to grab on to in this respect.
It could be somewhat similar to the months leading up to June 2010, when Conservative support began to slip.
Putting in Labour 37%, to 30% Conservative still gives Labour a majority of 50, because the Lib Dems only win a third of the seats they got in 2010.
37-30 is quite plausible...
However the next 33% has to go somewhere. If we give 4 percentage points to the SNP (which may be generous), that leaves a staggering 29% to split between Reform, the LibDems, Green and Other.
That would reflect the public not much liking either alternative.
That said, I suspect if could be more like 39/32, with both Reform and Greens going to Conservative and Labour respectively.
The electorate has been volatile since 2010, with Con/Lab getting 67% in 2010, 70% in 2015, 83% in 2017 and 78% in 2019, but likely dropping back in this coming election.
I could see the Conservatives getting up to 30%, even though everyone hates them, just to check the other side.
Boost for Sunak as the One Nation Caucus backs his Rwanda bill, after earlier opposition from the hard right ERG.
'The One Nation caucus of MPs has said it would recommend that its members back the Safety of Rwanda Bill in the vote tomorrow.
However, the group says it remains "concerned" about any future amendments which would mean the UK government breaches law and its international obligations and "would oppose such amendments in the House of Commons".
Damian Green, chair of the group, said: "We have taken the decision that the most important thing at this stage is to support the bill despite our real concerns.
"We strongly urge the government to stand firm against any attempt to amend the bill in a way that would make it unacceptable to those who believe that support for the rule of law is a basic Conservative principle.
The group is made up of 106 MPs on the more centrist wing of the Conservative party.'
Given only 30 Tory MPs are in the ERG and there is a Tory majority of 80 in the Commons, Sunak can now get his Rwanda bill over the line tomorrow
It's not just the ERG though is it? What about the New Conservatives (30 MPs), The Common Sense Group (sic) (30 MPs), and The Conservative Growth Group (50 MPs)?
A lot of those overlap with the ERG and of course it will be a 3 line whip to reduce defections
Yes, difficult to know how many right-wingers are in more than one group.
Losing the whip with an election looming presumably means a serious risk of losing the nomination for your seat, so that's potentially a powerful threat. However, it didn't stop the 2019 Brexit rebels, and as many of these MPs are probably losing their seats at the next GE anyway, so may be beyond caring.
May had no majority at all in 2019 however, Sunak has a majority of 57 at present (and SF don't vote)
Curious to see the Johnsonian diehards and the Corbynites speaking almost with one voice. It's almost as though the past is an anchor trying to pull us back.
Deltapoll and Redfield & Wilton have gone in different directions this evening - for Deltapoll, it's their lowest Labour VI since March 2022. R&W are much more within their comfort zone with an 18-point Labour lead. There's no indication of the fall in Labour share going straight back to the Conservatives - it's being shared through all parties and perhaps none.
Interesting to hear Sunak's evidence at the Covid hearing today. I'm not interested in EOTHO as I am in the extent of fraudulent appropriation of Covid funds by individuals and organisations. It's clear billions were handed out often on the most rudimentary evidence of need and unfortunately the opportunity to get free money from the Government has proven too much for some. I've seen figures varying from £5 billion to £15 billion in terms of public money given out either in error or obtained via fraud. Let's hope someone asks the former Chancellor of the Exchequer about that.
The main and key difference being, Tories were doing much better under Boris, who won them a huge majority, and Labour were doing much worse under Jezza, who lost in a landslide
His bad GE still saw a better vote share than EdM & Gordo managed though
"The main and key difference being, Tories were doing much better under Boris"
Surely that was until Boris made a series of terrible, albeit minor, mistakes, that were utterly in character, and which saw his polling plunge?
And it was SKS versus Boris, not Jezza (*). And admittedly, SKS was not doing that well against Boris, until Boris did a Boris? But Boris doing a Boris was, sadly for him, a certainty.
(*) I wish there was a better nicknake for Corbyn than 'Jezza'. Jezza implies matiness and niceness. It doesn't encompass the sheer nastiness and political shittiness of the man.
I prefer twat.
I'm not sure 'sheer nastiness' is something I can really see with Corbyn. Stubborn, obtuse, and displaying a weasel-esque inability to see the failings 'his own' people, be they Putin, Chavez, the PLO, or Chris Williamson. But that describes most politicians. It describes most PBers to be honest.
Reading BJO's contributions I can imagine what the Novara Media election night broadcast will be. Cheering on every tight Tory defence, only nice Mr Sunak can save the country from that Tory bastard Starmer.
Or in my case cheering every Green MP, Independent win in Islington North and every LFI failure.
Curious to see the Johnsonian diehards and the Corbynites speaking almost with one voice. It's almost as though the past is an anchor trying to pull us back.
Deltapoll and Redfield & Wilton have gone in different directions this evening - for Deltapoll, it's their lowest Labour VI since March 2022. R&W are much more within their comfort zone with an 18-point Labour lead. There's no indication of the fall in Labour share going straight back to the Conservatives - it's being shared through all parties and perhaps none.
Interesting to hear Sunak's evidence at the Covid hearing today. I'm not interested in EOTHO as I am in the extent of fraudulent appropriation of Covid funds by individuals and organisations. It's clear billions were handed out often on the most rudimentary evidence of need and unfortunately the opportunity to get free money from the Government has proven too much for some. I've seen figures varying from £5 billion to £15 billion in terms of public money given out either in error or obtained via fraud. Let's hope someone asks the former Chancellor of the Exchequer about that.
The main and key difference being, Tories were doing much better under Boris, who won them a huge majority, and Labour were doing much worse under Jezza, who lost in a landslide
His bad GE still saw a better vote share than EdM & Gordo managed though
"The main and key difference being, Tories were doing much better under Boris"
Surely that was until Boris made a series of terrible, albeit minor, mistakes, that were utterly in character, and which saw his polling plunge?
And it was SKS versus Boris, not Jezza (*). And admittedly, SKS was not doing that well against Boris, until Boris did a Boris? But Boris doing a Boris was, sadly for him, a certainty.
(*) I wish there was a better nicknake for Corbyn than 'Jezza'. Jezza implies matiness and niceness. It doesn't encompass the sheer nastiness and political shittiness of the man.
I prefer twat.
I'm not sure 'sheer nastiness' is something I can really see with Corbyn. Stubborn, obtuse, and displaying a weasel-esque inability to see the failings 'his own' people, be they Putin, Chavez, the PLO, or Chris Williamson. But that describes most politicians. It describes most PBers to be honest.
I would suggest inviting IRA members to parliament immediately after their colleagues had blown up the hotel in Brighton to be extremely 'nasty'.
Not something any PBer has done, to my knowledge...
Reform party is now up to 11% with two pollsters this week. YouGov and now Redfield & Wilton. And this is BEFORE Farage shows his cards. If I was a Tory I'd be very very anxious ... 6:05 PM · Dec 11, 2023"
Curious to see the Johnsonian diehards and the Corbynites speaking almost with one voice. It's almost as though the past is an anchor trying to pull us back.
Deltapoll and Redfield & Wilton have gone in different directions this evening - for Deltapoll, it's their lowest Labour VI since March 2022. R&W are much more within their comfort zone with an 18-point Labour lead. There's no indication of the fall in Labour share going straight back to the Conservatives - it's being shared through all parties and perhaps none.
Interesting to hear Sunak's evidence at the Covid hearing today. I'm not interested in EOTHO as I am in the extent of fraudulent appropriation of Covid funds by individuals and organisations. It's clear billions were handed out often on the most rudimentary evidence of need and unfortunately the opportunity to get free money from the Government has proven too much for some. I've seen figures varying from £5 billion to £15 billion in terms of public money given out either in error or obtained via fraud. Let's hope someone asks the former Chancellor of the Exchequer about that.
The main and key difference being, Tories were doing much better under Boris, who won them a huge majority, and Labour were doing much worse under Jezza, who lost in a landslide
His bad GE still saw a better vote share than EdM & Gordo managed though
"The main and key difference being, Tories were doing much better under Boris"
Surely that was until Boris made a series of terrible, albeit minor, mistakes, that were utterly in character, and which saw his polling plunge?
And it was SKS versus Boris, not Jezza (*). And admittedly, SKS was not doing that well against Boris, until Boris did a Boris? But Boris doing a Boris was, sadly for him, a certainty.
(*) I wish there was a better nicknake for Corbyn than 'Jezza'. Jezza implies matiness and niceness. It doesn't encompass the sheer nastiness and political shittiness of the man.
I prefer twat.
I'm not sure 'sheer nastiness' is something I can really see with Corbyn. Stubborn, obtuse, and displaying a weasel-esque inability to see the failings 'his own' people, be they Putin, Chavez, the PLO, or Chris Williamson. But that describes most politicians. It describes most PBers to be honest.
I would suggest inviting IRA members to parliament immediately after their colleagues had blown up the hotel in Brighton to be extremely 'nasty'.
Not something any PBer has done, to my knowledge...
I associate Corbyn with having the longest career I have ever seen as a Useful Idiot.
There does seem to be a discernible medium term trend downwards in Labour VI, even as Tory support bounces around the mid to high 20s. The absolute gaps remain big but the peaks of Labour support are much lower than they were. What is causing that?
I don't buy that it's the "not sealed the deal" phenomenon. Labour has as many (or as few) well known policies now as it had a year ago when it was touching 50% in the polls. And I can't see it being to do with Starmer support for Israel and apparent prevarication over Gaza. That's surely only an issue for a small minority of the Left, and we would expect to see Green VI rising if this were really a big driver.
I do wonder if it's actually a measure of some (very limited) success by the conservatives in getting bread and butter issues off the table and moving the news agenda back on to culture war and immigration. It might not be helping the Tories massively given all the internal chaos, but it's not notably harming their support either. Whereas for Labour I wonder if it's unhelpful.
I mentioned they could be losing support to Reform. How? Take your average disgruntled voter somewhere in the Red Wall who thinks the country's going to the dogs and the Tories deserve a kicking. A year or 6 months ago they might have argued that the country's going to the dogs because inflation is rampant, nobody's getting a decent pay rise, the roads are full of pot holes and it takes 6 months to get seen on the NHS. Now they might be saying the country's going to the dogs because the government has failed to stop the boats or control immigration. Before the obvious place to move your vote would be Labour. Now perhaps that's Reform.
Once a voter has shifted to Reform is it possible the Tories could then win them back rather than them slipping back to Labour? Possibly, if they can then make the next election about cultural issues rather than the pound in your pocket.
All this seasoned with just a touch of Labour not seeming to be any different on economic or public spending policy now.
I would say Labour needs the political weather to move back on to economy and (particularly) crumbling public services, and it needs to offer something for people to grab on to in this respect.
It could be somewhat similar to the months leading up to June 2010, when Conservative support began to slip.
Putting in Labour 37%, to 30% Conservative still gives Labour a majority of 50, because the Lib Dems only win a third of the seats they got in 2010.
37-30 is quite plausible...
However the next 33% has to go somewhere. If we give 4 percentage points to the SNP (which may be generous), that leaves a staggering 29% to split between Reform, the LibDems, Green and Other.
That would reflect the public not much liking either alternative.
That said, I suspect if could be more like 39/32, with both Reform and Greens going to Conservative and Labour respectively.
The electorate has been volatile since 2010, with Con/Lab getting 67% in 2010, 70% in 2015, 83% in 2017 and 78% in 2019, but likely dropping back in this coming election.
For chunks of the electorate SKS is simply more of the same policies weve had since 1997 irrespective of who is in office. If you were a loser in the globalisation push why would you vote for more ?
Globalisation didn't start for the UK in 1997.
It was a major inflection point though.
Remember that James Goldsmith's Euroscepticism was primarily in opposition to their turn towards global free trade which he saw as shattering the balance between capital and labour in the developed world.
Did he really. Workers of the world unite and listen to Jimmy Goldsmith.
Well if the politicians had listened, we might not have ended up with the wave of populism that you dislike so much.
Curious to see the Johnsonian diehards and the Corbynites speaking almost with one voice. It's almost as though the past is an anchor trying to pull us back.
Deltapoll and Redfield & Wilton have gone in different directions this evening - for Deltapoll, it's their lowest Labour VI since March 2022. R&W are much more within their comfort zone with an 18-point Labour lead. There's no indication of the fall in Labour share going straight back to the Conservatives - it's being shared through all parties and perhaps none.
Interesting to hear Sunak's evidence at the Covid hearing today. I'm not interested in EOTHO as I am in the extent of fraudulent appropriation of Covid funds by individuals and organisations. It's clear billions were handed out often on the most rudimentary evidence of need and unfortunately the opportunity to get free money from the Government has proven too much for some. I've seen figures varying from £5 billion to £15 billion in terms of public money given out either in error or obtained via fraud. Let's hope someone asks the former Chancellor of the Exchequer about that.
The main and key difference being, Tories were doing much better under Boris, who won them a huge majority, and Labour were doing much worse under Jezza, who lost in a landslide
His bad GE still saw a better vote share than EdM & Gordo managed though
"The main and key difference being, Tories were doing much better under Boris"
Surely that was until Boris made a series of terrible, albeit minor, mistakes, that were utterly in character, and which saw his polling plunge?
And it was SKS versus Boris, not Jezza (*). And admittedly, SKS was not doing that well against Boris, until Boris did a Boris? But Boris doing a Boris was, sadly for him, a certainty.
(*) I wish there was a better nicknake for Corbyn than 'Jezza'. Jezza implies matiness and niceness. It doesn't encompass the sheer nastiness and political shittiness of the man.
Javier Milei has begun by more than halving the number of government departments from 21 to 9.
I'm somehow seeing Sir Humphrey rubbing his hands with glee at all these new doubled-in-size departments needing many more senior posts appointed to run them.
There does seem to be a discernible medium term trend downwards in Labour VI, even as Tory support bounces around the mid to high 20s. The absolute gaps remain big but the peaks of Labour support are much lower than they were. What is causing that?
I don't buy that it's the "not sealed the deal" phenomenon. Labour has as many (or as few) well known policies now as it had a year ago when it was touching 50% in the polls. And I can't see it being to do with Starmer support for Israel and apparent prevarication over Gaza. That's surely only an issue for a small minority of the Left, and we would expect to see Green VI rising if this were really a big driver.
I do wonder if it's actually a measure of some (very limited) success by the conservatives in getting bread and butter issues off the table and moving the news agenda back on to culture war and immigration. It might not be helping the Tories massively given all the internal chaos, but it's not notably harming their support either. Whereas for Labour I wonder if it's unhelpful.
I mentioned they could be losing support to Reform. How? Take your average disgruntled voter somewhere in the Red Wall who thinks the country's going to the dogs and the Tories deserve a kicking. A year or 6 months ago they might have argued that the country's going to the dogs because inflation is rampant, nobody's getting a decent pay rise, the roads are full of pot holes and it takes 6 months to get seen on the NHS. Now they might be saying the country's going to the dogs because the government has failed to stop the boats or control immigration. Before the obvious place to move your vote would be Labour. Now perhaps that's Reform.
Once a voter has shifted to Reform is it possible the Tories could then win them back rather than them slipping back to Labour? Possibly, if they can then make the next election about cultural issues rather than the pound in your pocket.
All this seasoned with just a touch of Labour not seeming to be any different on economic or public spending policy now.
I would say Labour needs the political weather to move back on to economy and (particularly) crumbling public services, and it needs to offer something for people to grab on to in this respect.
It could be somewhat similar to the months leading up to June 2010, when Conservative support began to slip.
Putting in Labour 37%, to 30% Conservative still gives Labour a majority of 50, because the Lib Dems only win a third of the seats they got in 2010.
37-30 is quite plausible...
However the next 33% has to go somewhere. If we give 4 percentage points to the SNP (which may be generous), that leaves a staggering 29% to split between Reform, the LibDems, Green and Other.
That would reflect the public not much liking either alternative.
That said, I suspect if could be more like 39/32, with both Reform and Greens going to Conservative and Labour respectively.
The electorate has been volatile since 2010, with Con/Lab getting 67% in 2010, 70% in 2015, 83% in 2017 and 78% in 2019, but likely dropping back in this coming election.
For chunks of the electorate SKS is simply more of the same policies weve had since 1997 irrespective of who is in office. If you were a loser in the globalisation push why would you vote for more ?
Globalisation didn't start for the UK in 1997.
It was a major inflection point though.
Remember that James Goldsmith's Euroscepticism was primarily in opposition to their turn towards global free trade which he saw as shattering the balance between capital and labour in the developed world.
And 100% not due to petulance at having being cast out by the globalists who he'd previously been a useful idiot for?
Kate Cox, the Texas woman who was granted an abortion for her unviable pregnancy due to a deadly fetal abnormality, and then blocked by the Texas Supreme Court, will travel outside the state for her procedure. https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1734293190163980306
There does seem to be a discernible medium term trend downwards in Labour VI, even as Tory support bounces around the mid to high 20s. The absolute gaps remain big but the peaks of Labour support are much lower than they were. What is causing that?
I don't buy that it's the "not sealed the deal" phenomenon. Labour has as many (or as few) well known policies now as it had a year ago when it was touching 50% in the polls. And I can't see it being to do with Starmer support for Israel and apparent prevarication over Gaza. That's surely only an issue for a small minority of the Left, and we would expect to see Green VI rising if this were really a big driver.
I do wonder if it's actually a measure of some (very limited) success by the conservatives in getting bread and butter issues off the table and moving the news agenda back on to culture war and immigration. It might not be helping the Tories massively given all the internal chaos, but it's not notably harming their support either. Whereas for Labour I wonder if it's unhelpful.
I mentioned they could be losing support to Reform. How? Take your average disgruntled voter somewhere in the Red Wall who thinks the country's going to the dogs and the Tories deserve a kicking. A year or 6 months ago they might have argued that the country's going to the dogs because inflation is rampant, nobody's getting a decent pay rise, the roads are full of pot holes and it takes 6 months to get seen on the NHS. Now they might be saying the country's going to the dogs because the government has failed to stop the boats or control immigration. Before the obvious place to move your vote would be Labour. Now perhaps that's Reform.
Once a voter has shifted to Reform is it possible the Tories could then win them back rather than them slipping back to Labour? Possibly, if they can then make the next election about cultural issues rather than the pound in your pocket.
All this seasoned with just a touch of Labour not seeming to be any different on economic or public spending policy now.
I would say Labour needs the political weather to move back on to economy and (particularly) crumbling public services, and it needs to offer something for people to grab on to in this respect.
It could be somewhat similar to the months leading up to June 2010, when Conservative support began to slip.
Putting in Labour 37%, to 30% Conservative still gives Labour a majority of 50, because the Lib Dems only win a third of the seats they got in 2010.
37-30 is quite plausible...
However the next 33% has to go somewhere. If we give 4 percentage points to the SNP (which may be generous), that leaves a staggering 29% to split between Reform, the LibDems, Green and Other.
That would reflect the public not much liking either alternative.
That said, I suspect if could be more like 39/32, with both Reform and Greens going to Conservative and Labour respectively.
The electorate has been volatile since 2010, with Con/Lab getting 67% in 2010, 70% in 2015, 83% in 2017 and 78% in 2019, but likely dropping back in this coming election.
For chunks of the electorate SKS is simply more of the same policies weve had since 1997 irrespective of who is in office. If you were a loser in the globalisation push why would you vote for more ?
Globalisation didn't start for the UK in 1997.
It was a major inflection point though.
Remember that James Goldsmith's Euroscepticism was primarily in opposition to their turn towards global free trade which he saw as shattering the balance between capital and labour in the developed world.
Did he really. Workers of the world unite and listen to Jimmy Goldsmith.
Well if the politicians had listened, we might not have ended up with the wave of populism that you dislike so much.
Given migration is at a record high, but public concern about it is lower than before the EU referendum, I suspect populism is largely independent of *the facts*.
ITV's attitude has been very odd, paying all that money, then seeming to want to marginalise and even discredit their own showpony. My best guess is that the show producers really did want a 'breakdown of Farage' thing, to provoke some sort of racially-charged meltdown, and were stuck when they didn't get it. As I said when they first announced him, he's way too savvy for that, and ITV producers nowhere near clever enough to even scrape his surface.
Leaving aside whether this works or not, it is worrying that, first, it sounds like it follows a brainstorming session one wine time Friday and second, that it casts a shadow over council gardeners or whoever plants trees for a living.
They should be picking up litter as well.
Those don't seem to me to comparable.
Shoplifting is theft. Drink-driving is a deliberate decision to place the lives of other people at risk.
Mark Harper should have fought that, had he a conscience.
There does seem to be a discernible medium term trend downwards in Labour VI, even as Tory support bounces around the mid to high 20s. The absolute gaps remain big but the peaks of Labour support are much lower than they were. What is causing that?
I don't buy that it's the "not sealed the deal" phenomenon. Labour has as many (or as few) well known policies now as it had a year ago when it was touching 50% in the polls. And I can't see it being to do with Starmer support for Israel and apparent prevarication over Gaza. That's surely only an issue for a small minority of the Left, and we would expect to see Green VI rising if this were really a big driver.
I do wonder if it's actually a measure of some (very limited) success by the conservatives in getting bread and butter issues off the table and moving the news agenda back on to culture war and immigration. It might not be helping the Tories massively given all the internal chaos, but it's not notably harming their support either. Whereas for Labour I wonder if it's unhelpful.
I mentioned they could be losing support to Reform. How? Take your average disgruntled voter somewhere in the Red Wall who thinks the country's going to the dogs and the Tories deserve a kicking. A year or 6 months ago they might have argued that the country's going to the dogs because inflation is rampant, nobody's getting a decent pay rise, the roads are full of pot holes and it takes 6 months to get seen on the NHS. Now they might be saying the country's going to the dogs because the government has failed to stop the boats or control immigration. Before the obvious place to move your vote would be Labour. Now perhaps that's Reform.
Once a voter has shifted to Reform is it possible the Tories could then win them back rather than them slipping back to Labour? Possibly, if they can then make the next election about cultural issues rather than the pound in your pocket.
All this seasoned with just a touch of Labour not seeming to be any different on economic or public spending policy now.
I would say Labour needs the political weather to move back on to economy and (particularly) crumbling public services, and it needs to offer something for people to grab on to in this respect.
It could be somewhat similar to the months leading up to June 2010, when Conservative support began to slip.
Putting in Labour 37%, to 30% Conservative still gives Labour a majority of 50, because the Lib Dems only win a third of the seats they got in 2010.
37-30 is quite plausible...
However the next 33% has to go somewhere. If we give 4 percentage points to the SNP (which may be generous), that leaves a staggering 29% to split between Reform, the LibDems, Green and Other.
That would reflect the public not much liking either alternative.
That said, I suspect if could be more like 39/32, with both Reform and Greens going to Conservative and Labour respectively.
The electorate has been volatile since 2010, with Con/Lab getting 67% in 2010, 70% in 2015, 83% in 2017 and 78% in 2019, but likely dropping back in this coming election.
For chunks of the electorate SKS is simply more of the same policies weve had since 1997 irrespective of who is in office. If you were a loser in the globalisation push why would you vote for more ?
Globalisation didn't start for the UK in 1997.
It was a major inflection point though.
Remember that James Goldsmith's Euroscepticism was primarily in opposition to their turn towards global free trade which he saw as shattering the balance between capital and labour in the developed world.
Did he really. Workers of the world unite and listen to Jimmy Goldsmith.
Well if the politicians had listened, we might not have ended up with the wave of populism that you dislike so much.
Given migration is at a record high, but public concern about it is lower than before the EU referendum, I suspect populism is largely independent of *the facts*.
Your posting oeuvre is largely independent from the facts; perceptions are more important to most of us.
I was at a loose end after completing my bank account switch this evening (my old one is being withdrawn, annoyingly) so I thought I would take a look at polling since the start of 2021 using the poll of polls from Politico, and correlate it with monthly unleaded petrol pump prices.
A chunky correlation of -0.52, and R-squared of 0.272, with a decent sample size of 36. Meaning that roughly 27% of variance in the Tory-Labour gap in polling can be explained by (well, sort of) the relative cost of fuel.
So there you go. If you argue that cheaper pump prices are good for the Tories you are at least a quarter correct.
But hang on. Petrol prices peaked last July and the Truss collapse in polling happened in October! So surely that's nothing to do with petrol prices? Well... what if the relationship is lagged? After all it stands to reason that price changes take a while to sink in.
Correlation with 2 month lag for the same time period is r=-0.67. That's a strong relationship. r-squared of 0.50. That's right. Forget Truss and Kwarteng. Half of the Tory-Labour polling gap is explained by pump prices, with a 2 month gap.
What about 3 months? r=0.75, r-squared 0.57.
So there you have it. Forget partygate. Forget Kamikwazi. Forget Rwanda. Sunak's route to victory is simple: slash fuel duty by about 30p and he'll waltz back into Number 10.
Reform party is now up to 11% with two pollsters this week. YouGov and now Redfield & Wilton. And this is BEFORE Farage shows his cards. If I was a Tory I'd be very very anxious ... 6:05 PM · Dec 11, 2023"
Reform party is now up to 11% with two pollsters this week. YouGov and now Redfield & Wilton. And this is BEFORE Farage shows his cards. If I was a supporter of SKS, I'd be overjoyed...
Reform party is now up to 11% with two pollsters this week. YouGov and now Redfield & Wilton. And this is BEFORE Farage shows his cards. If I was a Tory I'd be very very anxious ... 6:05 PM · Dec 11, 2023"
Reform party is now up to 11% with two pollsters this week. YouGov and now Redfield & Wilton. And this is BEFORE Farage shows his cards. If I was a supporter of SKS, I'd be overjoyed...
Yet there’s no sign of that in real votes cast in real elections.
Reform party is now up to 11% with two pollsters this week. YouGov and now Redfield & Wilton. And this is BEFORE Farage shows his cards. If I was a Tory I'd be very very anxious ... 6:05 PM · Dec 11, 2023"
Reform party is now up to 11% with two pollsters this week. YouGov and now Redfield & Wilton. And this is BEFORE Farage shows his cards. If I was a supporter of SKS, I'd be overjoyed...
Yet there’s no sign of that in real votes cast in real elections.
As the Peter Kellner article of a couple of weeks ago laid bare. But, polling is important, wrong or not. It helps to set the political agenda.
I was at a loose end after completing my bank account switch this evening (my old one is being withdrawn, annoyingly) so I thought I would take a look at polling since the start of 2021 using the poll of polls from Politico, and correlate it with monthly unleaded petrol pump prices.
A chunky correlation of -0.52, and R-squared of 0.272, with a decent sample size of 36. Meaning that roughly 27% of variance in the Tory-Labour gap in polling can be explained by (well, sort of) the relative cost of fuel.
So there you go. If you argue that cheaper pump prices are good for the Tories you are at least a quarter correct.
But hang on. Petrol prices peaked last July and the Truss collapse in polling happened in October! So surely that's nothing to do with petrol prices? Well... what if the relationship is lagged? After all it stands to reason that price changes take a while to sink in.
Correlation with 2 month lag for the same time period is r=-0.67. That's a strong relationship. r-squared of 0.50. That's right. Forget Truss and Kwarteng. Half of the Tory-Labour polling gap is explained by pump prices, with a 2 month gap.
What about 3 months? r=0.75, r-squared 0.57.
So there you have it. Forget partygate. Forget Kamikwazi. Forget Rwanda. Sunak's route to victory is simple: slash fuel duty by about 30p and he'll waltz back into Number 10.
Hence the fuel duty freeze since God Knows When.
Trouble is that it's always a temporary freeze, and so the budget projections (you know, the ones where Hunt has a bit of fiscal headroom) don't include it. So next spring, Hunt either has to find a few billion quid (which he probably can) or really piss off the motorists.
"My dear, here we must run as fast as we can, just to stay in place."
Kate Cox, the Texas woman who was granted an abortion for her unviable pregnancy due to a deadly fetal abnormality, and then blocked by the Texas Supreme Court, will travel outside the state for her procedure. https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1734293190163980306
Unless Guv'nor Abbot sends special posse of Texas Rangers (led by Chuck Norris) to lasso the two-legged heifer.
Is there a reducing Lab lead trend in the polls? The movement in the last six polls doesn't really show it:
-4% Deltapoll 8-11 Dec (versus 1-4 Dec +2% R&W 10 Dec (v. 3 Dec) +4% We Think 7-8 Dec (v. 30 Nov - 1 Dec) +1% Techne 6-7 Dec (v. 29-30 Nov) 0% YouGov 6-7 Dec (v. 29-30 Nov) -4% More in Common 30 Nov - 4 Dec (v. 24-27 Nov)
@matt_dathan NEW: A meeting of 40 right-wing MPs tonight agreed to vote against or abstain in tomorrow's Rwanda bill vote unless Rishi Sunak offers concessions.
They claim they have the numbers to defeat the government.
I was at a loose end after completing my bank account switch this evening (my old one is being withdrawn, annoyingly) so I thought I would take a look at polling since the start of 2021 using the poll of polls from Politico, and correlate it with monthly unleaded petrol pump prices.
A chunky correlation of -0.52, and R-squared of 0.272, with a decent sample size of 36. Meaning that roughly 27% of variance in the Tory-Labour gap in polling can be explained by (well, sort of) the relative cost of fuel.
So there you go. If you argue that cheaper pump prices are good for the Tories you are at least a quarter correct.
But hang on. Petrol prices peaked last July and the Truss collapse in polling happened in October! So surely that's nothing to do with petrol prices? Well... what if the relationship is lagged? After all it stands to reason that price changes take a while to sink in.
Correlation with 2 month lag for the same time period is r=-0.67. That's a strong relationship. r-squared of 0.50. That's right. Forget Truss and Kwarteng. Half of the Tory-Labour polling gap is explained by pump prices, with a 2 month gap.
What about 3 months? r=0.75, r-squared 0.57.
So there you have it. Forget partygate. Forget Kamikwazi. Forget Rwanda. Sunak's route to victory is simple: slash fuel duty by about 30p and he'll waltz back into Number 10.
Hence the fuel duty freeze since God Knows When.
Trouble is that it's always a temporary freeze, and so the budget projections (you know, the ones where Hunt has a bit of fiscal headroom) don't include it. So next spring, Hunt either has to find a few billion quid (which he probably can) or really piss off the motorists.
"My dear, here we must run as fast as we can, just to stay in place."
I think all governments are now stuck in a doom loop on fuel duty. There's just no way they can raise it again without things kicking off. Rather like the now habitual SME business rates freeze. But fuel prices are probably more like a proxy for general cost of living.
Curious to see the Johnsonian diehards and the Corbynites speaking almost with one voice. It's almost as though the past is an anchor trying to pull us back.
Deltapoll and Redfield & Wilton have gone in different directions this evening - for Deltapoll, it's their lowest Labour VI since March 2022. R&W are much more within their comfort zone with an 18-point Labour lead. There's no indication of the fall in Labour share going straight back to the Conservatives - it's being shared through all parties and perhaps none.
Interesting to hear Sunak's evidence at the Covid hearing today. I'm not interested in EOTHO as I am in the extent of fraudulent appropriation of Covid funds by individuals and organisations. It's clear billions were handed out often on the most rudimentary evidence of need and unfortunately the opportunity to get free money from the Government has proven too much for some. I've seen figures varying from £5 billion to £15 billion in terms of public money given out either in error or obtained via fraud. Let's hope someone asks the former Chancellor of the Exchequer about that.
And if frontline services had not got PPI, some would have been screeching about how the government had procurement so much in a bureaucracy they let people die.
There was a worldwide demand for goods *in a hurry*. 'Normal' processes would never fit the situation.
Was there waste? Certainly. Was there fraud? Some, perhaps. The legal eagles will sort that out. Did frontline services get PPI they would not otherwise have got? IMV yes.
The question is who you weigh those up. And I might suggest the way you weigh them up now is very different from how they would have been weighed up in April or May 2020.
This is such a false dichotomy.
We wasted oodles of money and *precious time* procuring PPE from people with no experience who never supplied nor could have supplied what we wanted. While actual suppliers got left out because they didn't know the right MP.
Yet look at what Labour were calling for at the time, with equally untried companies being named as potential sources. "Why haven't you tried them?"
"While actual suppliers got left out because they didn't know the right MP."
Source, please, as I haven't heard that. Remember, virtually every country in the world was after the *same* PPE.
It’s bullshit
We did deals with Molnlycke but the French seized the goods we had purchased
This is pathetic. This is like Angela Rayner interviewing Keir Starmer.
If Keir Starmer had his own tv show and Angela Rayner had been presenting it in his absence it would be just like it
It would be absolutely disgraceful and surely against Ofcom rules as this is. This isn't news it is propaganda and all people should be calling it out.
Lygo’s comments were quite funny though - Farage come across as being thin skinned
(Basically he had a sign language person on stage and said “I don’t know sign language but I do know the sign for Farage” followed by a middle finger. He then said “it’s great he’s gone to Australia… of course as an immigrant he’ll need to come back in a dinghy”
Comments
https://twitter.com/donaldtusk/status/1675381156513038336
We wasted oodles of money and *precious time* procuring PPE from people with no experience who never supplied nor could have supplied what we wanted. While actual suppliers got left out because they didn't know the right MP.
Jago Hazzard's latest video — "How a Victorian tower block brought trams back to London"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5bPOzpLkxIg
"While actual suppliers got left out because they didn't know the right MP."
Source, please, as I haven't heard that. Remember, virtually every country in the world was after the *same* PPE.
Wait a second. I'm my own boss...
On the right there seem to be about seven groups. What is it about extremists that cause them to split into so many factions.
Rwanda: The main Conservative Party factions jostling for influence
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67658700
'The One Nation caucus of MPs has said it would recommend that its members back the Safety of Rwanda Bill in the vote tomorrow.
However, the group says it remains "concerned" about any future amendments which would mean the UK government breaches law and its international obligations and "would oppose such amendments in the House of Commons".
Damian Green, chair of the group, said: "We have taken the decision that the most important thing at this stage is to support the bill despite our real concerns.
"We strongly urge the government to stand firm against any attempt to amend the bill in a way that would make it unacceptable to those who believe that support for the rule of law is a basic Conservative principle.
The group is made up of 106 MPs on the more centrist wing of the Conservative party.'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-67680524
Given only 30 Tory MPs are in the ERG and there is a Tory majority of 80 in the Commons, Sunak can now get his Rwanda bill over the line tomorrow
Without an arse licking state media on his side he’ll be out at the next Presidential election . It’s a miracle the opposition won given the gerrymandering and the field was stacked against them .
But even if true the passing of the bill doesn't feel like a significant moment. This is all about winning certain groups of people over, and it hasn't won over one of the party factions which believes itself to understand those people the most, and probably does.
Surely that was until Boris made a series of terrible, albeit minor, mistakes, that were utterly in character, and which saw his polling plunge?
And it was SKS versus Boris, not Jezza (*). And admittedly, SKS was not doing that well against Boris, until Boris did a Boris? But Boris doing a Boris was, sadly for him, a certainty.
(*) I wish there was a better nicknake for Corbyn than 'Jezza'. Jezza implies matiness and niceness. It doesn't encompass the sheer nastiness and political shittiness of the man.
Except when it punches you in the face.
I meant that vs Boris, Sir Keir was doing better than Corbyn did
Losing the whip with an election looming presumably means a serious risk of losing the nomination for your seat, so that's potentially a powerful threat. However, it didn't stop the 2019 Brexit rebels, and as many of these MPs are probably losing their seats at the next GE anyway, so may be beyond caring.
I prefer twat.
Oh, sorry, wrong country.
You had me all hopeful there for a second.
His biggest fault was not changing his character when he became PM. Admittedly, changing character is hard to do...
But he won't, instead he will kick the can down the road and cause more chaos and destruction.
Worst PM since the last one. Guy is a fool.
If there's fun to be had, it will be in the New Year when it's debated and amendments can be laid.
Can't wait.
It can happen in most FPTP Western democracies.
So, Back To The Future and Jurassic Park are now on my list.
If Kevin Lygo and ITV want to go to war with me then they can be my guest.
The last person who did that was Dame Allison Rose from NatWest Bank, and that didn’t end very well.
Let's please end the nonsense, and let's do it now! @ITV
https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1734301179503616252?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Labour has just been re-elected for a third term, with a majority of 80.
A new poll shows Labour only 10 points ahead.
"SKS fans please explain", BJO says.
Not something any PBer has done, to my knowledge...
@GoodwinMJ
Reform party is now up to 11% with two pollsters this week. YouGov and now Redfield & Wilton. And this is BEFORE Farage shows his cards. If I was a Tory I'd be very very anxious ...
6:05 PM · Dec 11, 2023"
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1734273247087120881
Picture is too small apologies
Barf.
A na bob a zin a
A ver age nin ja
https://www.thesun.co.uk/tv/24857460/itv-kevin-lygo-nigel-farage/
https://youtu.be/Ul3v6JgIDkQ
https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1734293190163980306
Shoplifting is theft.
Drink-driving is a deliberate decision to place the lives of other people at risk.
Mark Harper should have fought that, had he a conscience.
A chunky correlation of -0.52, and R-squared of 0.272, with a decent sample size of 36. Meaning that roughly 27% of variance in the Tory-Labour gap in polling can be explained by (well, sort of) the relative cost of fuel.
So there you go. If you argue that cheaper pump prices are good for the Tories you are at least a quarter correct.
But hang on. Petrol prices peaked last July and the Truss collapse in polling happened in October! So surely that's nothing to do with petrol prices? Well... what if the relationship is lagged? After all it stands to reason that price changes take a while to sink in.
Correlation with 2 month lag for the same time period is r=-0.67. That's a strong relationship. r-squared of 0.50. That's right. Forget Truss and Kwarteng. Half of the Tory-Labour polling gap is explained by pump prices, with a 2 month gap.
What about 3 months? r=0.75, r-squared 0.57.
So there you have it. Forget partygate. Forget Kamikwazi. Forget Rwanda. Sunak's route to victory is simple: slash fuel duty by about 30p and he'll waltz back into Number 10.
Reform party is now up to 11% with two pollsters this week. YouGov and now Redfield & Wilton. And this is BEFORE Farage shows his cards. If I was a supporter of SKS, I'd be overjoyed...
For I have a feeling you won’t enjoy what the New Year has to deliver.
Trouble is that it's always a temporary freeze, and so the budget projections (you know, the ones where Hunt has a bit of fiscal headroom) don't include it. So next spring, Hunt either has to find a few billion quid (which he probably can) or really piss off the motorists.
"My dear, here we must run as fast as we can, just to stay in place."
Oof you’ve gotta feel for MPs on intl development cmte… who were told to pull Caribbean trip to make Rwanda vote tomo, acc to colleagues
Tories, Labour & SNP have all pulled permission for MPs to miss the Commons
Slips axed, plus foreign affairs cmte returning early from Qatar
This is pathetic. This is like Angela Rayner interviewing Keir Starmer.
-4% Deltapoll 8-11 Dec (versus 1-4 Dec
+2% R&W 10 Dec (v. 3 Dec)
+4% We Think 7-8 Dec (v. 30 Nov - 1 Dec)
+1% Techne 6-7 Dec (v. 29-30 Nov)
0% YouGov 6-7 Dec (v. 29-30 Nov)
-4% More in Common 30 Nov - 4 Dec (v. 24-27 Nov)
NEW: A meeting of 40 right-wing MPs tonight agreed to vote against or abstain in tomorrow's Rwanda bill vote unless Rishi Sunak offers concessions.
They claim they have the numbers to defeat the government.
MPs included Braverman and Jenrick.
If Keir Starmer had his own tv show and Angela Rayner had been presenting it in his absence it would be just like it
We did deals with Molnlycke but the French seized the goods we had purchased
The US banned 3M from exporting their products.
Why not Thur 1 Feb, the weather is always lovely then! 😈
Government waste when Tories in power = good
(Basically he had a sign language person on stage and said “I don’t know sign language but I do know the sign for Farage” followed by a middle finger. He then said “it’s great he’s gone to Australia… of course as an immigrant he’ll need to come back in a dinghy”