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Should we be ready for an early election? – politicalbetting.com

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  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631
    isam said:

    Of the many shocking charts in the @csjthinktank report on the impacts of lockdown, this is one of the most striking.

    Benefit claimants doubled during the lockdowns, and never came down again.

    You'd think this *might* be relevant to the Covid enquiry 🧐





    https://x.com/freddiesayers/status/1734239508449653159?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Impact of "lockdowns" or impact of a mass pandemic that left permanent impacts on many peoples health?
  • DougSeal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DougSeal said:

    That will be a devastating blow after the massive majority Corbyn achieved. Devastating.
    Centrist mentality that a fall from 150 Maj last week to 46 this week is a triumph for SKS

    And still cant even attempt an answer to why a fall of 13% in SKS's ratings might have come about

    Quarter Wit!
    Ah yes, I remember you announcing what a triumph last week's numbers were for SKS.

    Imagine the following scenario:

    January 1 poll:
    Lab 45 Con 30
    BJO... silent

    February 1 poll:
    Lab 40 Con 30
    BJO... Labour poll share falls 5%! SKS fans please explain

    March 1 poll
    Lab 45 Con 30
    BJO... silent

    etc

    Does that sound like a plausible scenario?
    GE2024
    LAB 39
    CON 35

    Sounds Plausible

    But Centrists would then claim NOM to LT 50 MAJ was a triumph and SKS Fans would still find reasons not to explain why LAB has underperformed.

    Lab under Burnham would be sailing along at over 50%
    That performance would make SKS only the second Labour PM born after the end of the First World War and mean he had achieved a bigger swing in terms of seats than at any GE I am aware of.

    Yet this, to you, is "underperforming" against a counterfactual that is, by definition, unfalsifiable. We can't argue against it any more than we can argue against the existence of God in the face of a religious nutter which is, in essence, what you are.
    We do have a bit of evidence for one related thing Doug.

    Namely that back in August 2023, More in Common found that the Labour lead over the Tories would be 17% less if Corbyn not Starmer were leader.

    BJO is already aware of that.

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/08/18/what-would-be-happening-if-corbyn-was-still-lab-leader/

  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931
    Leon said:

    The sense that Britain must be in ruins is, let’s be fair, exacerbated by our hysterical media - mainstream and social

    Even if you’re more than averagely skeptical it begins to have an effect. Such that you expect total mayhem, ever so slightly, when you land

    And what you encounter is a rich clean calm orderly highly evolved capital city, gleaming with nice shops and pleasant young people being polite

    Is our media uniquely hysterical, or have you found the media in other countries to be as bad?
  • Leon said:

    The sense that Britain must be in ruins is, let’s be fair, exacerbated by our hysterical media - mainstream and social

    Even if you’re more than averagely skeptical it begins to have an effect. Such that you expect total mayhem, ever so slightly, when you land

    And what you encounter is a rich clean calm orderly highly evolved capital city, gleaming with nice shops and pleasant young people being polite

    Yeh, but woke is totally out of control and will destroy the West, and AI is about to eradicate us all.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,082

    Barnesian said:

    Out of curiosity: These Christmas cards that are being sent out in the UK: Are they Christmas cards, or "Holiday" cards, or does that depend on the party and/or sender?

    (Here in my little suburb, we officially celebrate a "holiday". So the town puts up a fancy tree that looks much like a Christmas tree, but has no religious symbols on it. For example, at the top, instead of a star or angel, there is a snowflake.

    Last year, the local Google topped the town by putting up what I would call a "designer tree". (I think I have a picture or two of it.)

    What would I do were I running things? I would allow the local churches to rent spaces during the season, and put up their own trees with -- if they share my tastes -- many home-made ornaments.

    It's Merry Christmas. None of this happy holiday stuff here.
    People vary - some institutions play safe and wish happy holidays, but in my experience most people (including Muslim friends) go with the flow and say happy Christmas. It's perhaps easier because most people aren't actually Christian in any serious sense of the word - we maybe go to church for a wedding or a funeral - so it's clear that we're mostly just enjoying the general spirit of the thing.
    As Jesus is considered a prophet of Mohammad, I wouldn’t expect Muslims to have an issue with Christmas. The ones I know are certainly ok with Christmas.
    I know some who send out Christmas cards. Why not, it doesn't impact on their following of their own faith after all.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,140

    Leon said:

    The sense that Britain must be in ruins is, let’s be fair, exacerbated by our hysterical media - mainstream and social

    Even if you’re more than averagely skeptical it begins to have an effect. Such that you expect total mayhem, ever so slightly, when you land

    And what you encounter is a rich clean calm orderly highly evolved capital city, gleaming with nice shops and pleasant young people being polite

    Yeh, but woke is totally out of control and will destroy the West, and AI is about to eradicate us all.

    And that's the best case scenario.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,263

    Leon said:

    The sense that Britain must be in ruins is, let’s be fair, exacerbated by our hysterical media - mainstream and social

    Even if you’re more than averagely skeptical it begins to have an effect. Such that you expect total mayhem, ever so slightly, when you land

    And what you encounter is a rich clean calm orderly highly evolved capital city, gleaming with nice shops and pleasant young people being polite

    Is our media uniquely hysterical, or have you found the media in other countries to be as bad?
    It’s hard to say coz I barely read French and have almost zero German Spanish mandarin so I judge their media with a squint

    However I do feel ours is maybe uniquely histrionic. Its partly coz we’re good at it: tabloid journalism with clickbaity headlines - from the guardian to the mail

  • Neil Henderson
    @hendopolis
    ·
    15m
    TELEGRAPH: Ben Wallace: Do not let Rwanda row bring down government
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,082
    edited December 2023
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    The sense that Britain must be in ruins is, let’s be fair, exacerbated by our hysterical media - mainstream and social

    Exclusive report there from our hysterical media correspondent...
    Well, if you have a venereal disease you'd want to consult with an expert in venereal disease, so who better to advise on hysterical media than an expert media hysteric?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited December 2023
    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Tories poll 28-32 ish I reckon, Labour 38 to 45.

    On EMA currently Tories 26, Labour 43. But Tories could get back say 4% from Reform so I don't disagree.

    Labour with 122 overall majority. Tories down to 204 seats.
    That'll do nicely. (Although I'd prefer an absolute Tory wipe-out because they deserve one.)
    CON probably happy with 200 seats at the moment
    Although they would have hoped for far better after the great victory in 2019, I think at this point they'd take simply doing better than 1997.

    They'd then hope they could avoid a repeat of standing still for a term, and so recovery in 2-3 elections rather than 4.

    It's sometimes easy to forget, for us youngsters, how little they had recovered even by 2005, how much work Cameron still had in front of him.
    The difference between now & 1997 is that back then the Tories were kind of old and stale, they’d clung on last time after winning landslides before, and it was a bit of a managed mediocrity. Labour seemed young and exciting

    This time the Tories have a huge majority, after years of tiny majority, coalition or weird DUP deal, a charismatic leader and a mandate to be revolutionary - it was their 97

    I still think Boris was very unlucky to have to deal with the pandemic; he had a great chance, possibly a once in a generation chance, to do something spectacular and was stopped in his tracks
  • rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    The sense that Britain must be in ruins is, let’s be fair, exacerbated by our hysterical media - mainstream and social

    Even if you’re more than averagely skeptical it begins to have an effect. Such that you expect total mayhem, ever so slightly, when you land

    And what you encounter is a rich clean calm orderly highly evolved capital city, gleaming with nice shops and pleasant young people being polite

    Yeh, but woke is totally out of control and will destroy the West, and AI is about to eradicate us all.

    And that's the best case scenario.
    Indeed. There's an astroid with our name on it and Bruce Willis is unwell.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    isam said:

    Of the many shocking charts in the @csjthinktank report on the impacts of lockdown, this is one of the most striking.

    Benefit claimants doubled during the lockdowns, and never came down again.

    You'd think this *might* be relevant to the Covid enquiry 🧐





    https://x.com/freddiesayers/status/1734239508449653159?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    You’d think. But the inquiry is (perplexingly) focused on the process by which decisions were reached, rather than the quality of the decisions themselves.
  • Bloody hell.

    Geoffrey Cox MP actually sighted.

    Newsnight.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,082
    isam said:

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Tories poll 28-32 ish I reckon, Labour 38 to 45.

    On EMA currently Tories 26, Labour 43. But Tories could get back say 4% from Reform so I don't disagree.

    Labour with 122 overall majority. Tories down to 204 seats.
    That'll do nicely. (Although I'd prefer an absolute Tory wipe-out because they deserve one.)
    CON probably happy with 200 seats at the moment
    Although they would have hoped for far better after the great victory in 2019, I think at this point they'd take simply doing better than 1997.

    They'd then hope they could avoid a repeat of standing still for a term, and so recovery in 2-3 elections rather than 4.

    It's sometimes easy to forget, for us youngsters, how little they had recovered even by 2005, how much work Cameron still had in front of him.
    The difference between now & 1997 is that back then the Tories were kind of old and stale, they’d clung on last time and it was a bit of a managed mediocrity. Labour seemed young and exciting


    This time the Tories had a huge majority, after years of tiny majority, coalition or weird DUP deal, a charismatic leader and a mandate to be revolutionary - it was their 97
    I think they'd have reasonably expected to hold onto power one more election even if things had gone badly, but it has gone far worse than they could have predicted.

    It's a shame more significant things were not done with the big majority. Like planning reform. I know the initial plans had issues, but giving up on it seemed a real waste. It's not like the Shires are proving grateful.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,082

    Bloody hell.

    Geoffrey Cox MP actually sighted.

    Newsnight.

    I think he charges £400 an hour just for a glimpse of him, double that if he is to do any work.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,082


    Neil Henderson
    @hendopolis
    ·
    15m
    TELEGRAPH: Ben Wallace: Do not let Rwanda row bring down government

    Translation: Rwanda could bring down the government, keep it up.
  • isam said:

    Of the many shocking charts in the @csjthinktank report on the impacts of lockdown, this is one of the most striking.

    Benefit claimants doubled during the lockdowns, and never came down again.

    You'd think this *might* be relevant to the Covid enquiry 🧐





    https://x.com/freddiesayers/status/1734239508449653159?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    You’d think. But the inquiry is (perplexingly) focused on the process by which decisions were reached, rather than the quality of the decisions themselves.
    One can only hope that later modules will be better than this because so far it has been a bloody disgrace as far as learning lessons rather than showing those in charge were a bunch of squabbling humans.

    Getting deeply unimpressed myself with this Hugo KC.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,263
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    The sense that Britain must be in ruins is, let’s be fair, exacerbated by our hysterical media - mainstream and social

    Exclusive report there from our hysterical media correspondent...
    Your point might have more force if you hadn’t spent the last SEVEN years repeatedly claiming that the country is literally imploding, and running with wolves and cannibals, thanks to Brexit
  • Barnesian said:

    Out of curiosity: These Christmas cards that are being sent out in the UK: Are they Christmas cards, or "Holiday" cards, or does that depend on the party and/or sender?

    (Here in my little suburb, we officially celebrate a "holiday". So the town puts up a fancy tree that looks much like a Christmas tree, but has no religious symbols on it. For example, at the top, instead of a star or angel, there is a snowflake.

    Last year, the local Google topped the town by putting up what I would call a "designer tree". (I think I have a picture or two of it.)

    What would I do were I running things? I would allow the local churches to rent spaces during the season, and put up their own trees with -- if they share my tastes -- many home-made ornaments.

    It's Merry Christmas. None of this happy holiday stuff here.
    The irony is that we call it Christmas and mostly don’t believe in it, and the Americans don’t call it Christmas but mostly do
    I absolutely 100% believe in Christmas.

    I believe in Father Christmas, whom I know with iron-clad certainty is real and will be visiting my own children this December using the same logic as René Descartes.

    I believe in festive singing and community spirit, a tradition that goes back at least two and a half thousand years.

    I believe in decorating a Christmas tree, a tradition that goes back at least two and a half thousand years too.

    I believe we are visited every December by mischievous elves who stay in our home and move around every night (which is a bit exhausting at times) and keep an eye on my girls - a tradition that goes back eight years in my house.

    I believe in sharing presents, wishing good tidings to others, spending time with family and everything that goes with Christmas. What's not to believe in there?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,082

    isam said:

    Of the many shocking charts in the @csjthinktank report on the impacts of lockdown, this is one of the most striking.

    Benefit claimants doubled during the lockdowns, and never came down again.

    You'd think this *might* be relevant to the Covid enquiry 🧐





    https://x.com/freddiesayers/status/1734239508449653159?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    You’d think. But the inquiry is (perplexingly) focused on the process by which decisions were reached, rather than the quality of the decisions themselves.
    There are lessons to be learned about decision making processes, but bad decisions can still be made with good processes of course. And from a casual following of it so far we appear to have learned it was pretty chaotic and tense, which is what you'd expect from a once in a generation event. Absent some finding that some fundamental errors were in play - not consulting people who should have been, not considering information they should have - then determining what worked and what didn't would seem more useful. Not to blame decision makers for doing some of those things, which might have been reasonable at the time, but just to note for next time.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,820
    edited December 2023
    "I would like to have seen Brent Cross West..."







































  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,082
    Can any legislator be this stupid, or do some not care about being openly pro-Putin anymore?

    I mean, Christ, 'promising he will not continue any further invasions'? Yes, I'm sure having succeeded in his various invasions to date by giving him a deal he would totally uphold a promise this time.

  • Out of curiosity: These Christmas cards that are being sent out in the UK: Are they Christmas cards, or "Holiday" cards, or does that depend on the party and/or sender?

    (Here in my little suburb, we officially celebrate a "holiday". So the town puts up a fancy tree that looks much like a Christmas tree, but has no religious symbols on it. For example, at the top, instead of a star or angel, there is a snowflake.

    Last year, the local Google topped the town by putting up what I would call a "designer tree". (I think I have a picture or two of it.)

    What would I do were I running things? I would allow the local churches to rent spaces during the season, and put up their own trees with -- if they share my tastes -- many home-made ornaments.

    Question - how is a snowflake not a symbol of Christmas in your eyes?

    And what has religious symbolism got to do with Christmas?
  • kle4 said:

    Can any legislator be this stupid, or do some not care about being openly pro-Putin anymore?

    I mean, Christ, 'promising he will not continue any further invasions'? Yes, I'm sure having succeeded in his various invasions to date by giving him a deal he would totally uphold a promise this time.

    I'm sure Trump 2.0 will deliver the perfect deal whereby Vlad promises no more bad behaviour in exchange for half of Ukraine and US troops and nuke missiles out of Germany.
  • "I would like to have seen Brent Cross West..."







































    Impressive.

    But just reminds us oinks from the North that time after time after time transport money is funnelled into London and the rest of us can go f*ck ourselves.

  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,779

    isam said:

    Of the many shocking charts in the @csjthinktank report on the impacts of lockdown, this is one of the most striking.

    Benefit claimants doubled during the lockdowns, and never came down again.

    You'd think this *might* be relevant to the Covid enquiry 🧐





    https://x.com/freddiesayers/status/1734239508449653159?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    You’d think. But the inquiry is (perplexingly) focused on the process by which decisions were reached, rather than the quality of the decisions themselves.
    I keep myself warm of an evening imagining that somewhere there is an academic department or group of civil servants who are charged with actually learning the lessons of the pandemic. Rather than the very, very expensive lesson we seem to being shown of "various people had different ideas, and sometimes panicked and sometimes quibbled in the face of something more serious than tomorrows Express headline".

    Or indeed that there was something more serious than an Express headline.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,870
    Andy_JS said:

    Why are some left-wingers so grumpy at the moment, despite being 20% ahead in the polls? I can only assume they still wish Corbyn was leader instead of Starmer.

    Simply put because currently the tories are left footers and starmers labour is to the right of them. The lefties love to call far right but look at the high tax, high spend, high immigration the tories foster and they are almost as left wing as corbyn. About the only thing they dont do that corbyn would do is hug a hamas
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,082
    ohnotnow said:

    isam said:

    Of the many shocking charts in the @csjthinktank report on the impacts of lockdown, this is one of the most striking.

    Benefit claimants doubled during the lockdowns, and never came down again.

    You'd think this *might* be relevant to the Covid enquiry 🧐





    https://x.com/freddiesayers/status/1734239508449653159?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    You’d think. But the inquiry is (perplexingly) focused on the process by which decisions were reached, rather than the quality of the decisions themselves.
    I keep myself warm of an evening imagining that somewhere there is an academic department or group of civil servants who are charged with actually learning the lessons of the pandemic. Rather than the very, very expensive lesson we seem to being shown of "various people had different ideas, and sometimes panicked and sometimes quibbled in the face of something more serious than tomorrows Express headline".

    Or indeed that there was something more serious than an Express headline.
    I'm sure there are people learning valuable lessons about the pandemic.

    I'm much less sure those lessons will find their way into the hands of decision makers next time, or have much impact on preparedness.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631
    edited December 2023
    ohnotnow said:

    isam said:

    Of the many shocking charts in the @csjthinktank report on the impacts of lockdown, this is one of the most striking.

    Benefit claimants doubled during the lockdowns, and never came down again.

    You'd think this *might* be relevant to the Covid enquiry 🧐





    https://x.com/freddiesayers/status/1734239508449653159?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    You’d think. But the inquiry is (perplexingly) focused on the process by which decisions were reached, rather than the quality of the decisions themselves.
    I keep myself warm of an evening imagining that somewhere there is an academic department or group of civil servants who are charged with actually learning the lessons of the pandemic. Rather than the very, very expensive lesson we seem to being shown of "various people had different ideas, and sometimes panicked and sometimes quibbled in the face of something more serious than tomorrows Express headline".

    Or indeed that there was something more serious than an Express headline.
    One thing that we have learnt is that Sunak is much more seriously affected by memory loss than President Biden:

    "Here's a running thread of all the things the current Prime Minister cannot recall whilst under oath at the Covid Inquiry.

    Some more understandable than others I'd humbly suggest"

    https://twitter.com/nathan_oswin/status/1734189700813132273?t=URsV4R2tmumdgPFdAisPTg&s=19

  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,779

    "I would like to have seen Brent Cross West..."







































    Impressive.

    But just reminds us oinks from the North that time after time after time transport money is funnelled into London and the rest of us can go f*ck ourselves.

    What is this "North" you speak of? Is that where we occasionally increase or decrease our majority? Oh! No! It's the place R4 recruit their 'authentic' voices from, now I remember!

    Somewhat related... I remember listening to a 'PM' R4 programme and the presenter opening a conversation with a non-London teacher with "So, what's it like being a teacher with an accent?". At which point I turned off.
  • kle4 said:

    ohnotnow said:

    isam said:

    Of the many shocking charts in the @csjthinktank report on the impacts of lockdown, this is one of the most striking.

    Benefit claimants doubled during the lockdowns, and never came down again.

    You'd think this *might* be relevant to the Covid enquiry 🧐





    https://x.com/freddiesayers/status/1734239508449653159?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    You’d think. But the inquiry is (perplexingly) focused on the process by which decisions were reached, rather than the quality of the decisions themselves.
    I keep myself warm of an evening imagining that somewhere there is an academic department or group of civil servants who are charged with actually learning the lessons of the pandemic. Rather than the very, very expensive lesson we seem to being shown of "various people had different ideas, and sometimes panicked and sometimes quibbled in the face of something more serious than tomorrows Express headline".

    Or indeed that there was something more serious than an Express headline.
    I'm sure there are people learning valuable lessons about the pandemic.

    I'm much less sure those lessons will find their way into the hands of decision makers next time, or have much impact on preparedness.
    I doubt those people are academic civil servants.

    Instead it reminds me of the Grinch solve world hunger, tell no-one.
  • ohnotnow said:

    isam said:

    Of the many shocking charts in the @csjthinktank report on the impacts of lockdown, this is one of the most striking.

    Benefit claimants doubled during the lockdowns, and never came down again.

    You'd think this *might* be relevant to the Covid enquiry 🧐





    https://x.com/freddiesayers/status/1734239508449653159?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    You’d think. But the inquiry is (perplexingly) focused on the process by which decisions were reached, rather than the quality of the decisions themselves.
    I keep myself warm of an evening imagining that somewhere there is an academic department or group of civil servants who are charged with actually learning the lessons of the pandemic. Rather than the very, very expensive lesson we seem to being shown of "various people had different ideas, and sometimes panicked and sometimes quibbled in the face of something more serious than tomorrows Express headline".

    Or indeed that there was something more serious than an Express headline.
    I hope there is a whole module on Sweden and they will actually talk to Anders Tegnel.

    But I guess I am dreaming.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,263

    "I would like to have seen Brent Cross West..."







































    That looks.... rather sleek and impressive, in its modest way. It ain't St Pancras, but what is

    Certainly better than Thanet effing Parkway, or The Bristol Airport Multifaith Smoking Podule
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited December 2023
    Pagan2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Why are some left-wingers so grumpy at the moment, despite being 20% ahead in the polls? I can only assume they still wish Corbyn was leader instead of Starmer.

    Simply put because currently the tories are left footers and starmers labour is to the right of them. The lefties love to call far right but look at the high tax, high spend, high immigration the tories foster and they are almost as left wing as corbyn. About the only thing they dont do that corbyn would do is hug a hamas
    Is Rwanda the only thing the Tories have done in govt that Labour supporters can genuinely grumble about? The thing that’s a bit right wing?

    Immigration, tax and spending are all up

    Seems to me it is just personalities that upset them most, and a lack of perceived control because it’s not the people they’d vote for calling the shots
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,779
    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    isam said:

    Of the many shocking charts in the @csjthinktank report on the impacts of lockdown, this is one of the most striking.

    Benefit claimants doubled during the lockdowns, and never came down again.

    You'd think this *might* be relevant to the Covid enquiry 🧐





    https://x.com/freddiesayers/status/1734239508449653159?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    You’d think. But the inquiry is (perplexingly) focused on the process by which decisions were reached, rather than the quality of the decisions themselves.
    I keep myself warm of an evening imagining that somewhere there is an academic department or group of civil servants who are charged with actually learning the lessons of the pandemic. Rather than the very, very expensive lesson we seem to being shown of "various people had different ideas, and sometimes panicked and sometimes quibbled in the face of something more serious than tomorrows Express headline".

    Or indeed that there was something more serious than an Express headline.
    One thing that we have learnt is that Sunak is much more seriously affected by memory loss than President Biden:




    "Here's a running thread of all the things the current Prime Minister cannot recall whilst under oath at the Covid Inquiry.

    Some more understandable than others I'd humbly suggest"

    https://twitter.com/nathan_oswin/status/1734189700813132273?t=URsV4R2tmumdgPFdAisPTg&s=19

    I turned off his appearance as it kept reminding me of Reagan and Oliver North's "I cannot recall..." contra testimonies.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,082
    ohnotnow said:

    "I would like to have seen Brent Cross West..."







































    Impressive.

    But just reminds us oinks from the North that time after time after time transport money is funnelled into London and the rest of us can go f*ck ourselves.

    What is this "North" you speak of? Is that where we occasionally increase or decrease our majority? Oh! No! It's the place R4 recruit their 'authentic' voices from, now I remember!

    Somewhat related... I remember listening to a 'PM' R4 programme and the presenter opening a conversation with a non-London teacher with "So, what's it like being a teacher with an accent?". At which point I turned off.
    I don't think true equality will be achieved in this country until we elect a PM who talks with an incomprehensible West Country or Geordie accent.

    As a West Country lad I very rarely come across such an accent though, so it may be dying already.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,870
    kle4 said:

    ohnotnow said:

    isam said:

    Of the many shocking charts in the @csjthinktank report on the impacts of lockdown, this is one of the most striking.

    Benefit claimants doubled during the lockdowns, and never came down again.

    You'd think this *might* be relevant to the Covid enquiry 🧐





    https://x.com/freddiesayers/status/1734239508449653159?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    You’d think. But the inquiry is (perplexingly) focused on the process by which decisions were reached, rather than the quality of the decisions themselves.
    I keep myself warm of an evening imagining that somewhere there is an academic department or group of civil servants who are charged with actually learning the lessons of the pandemic. Rather than the very, very expensive lesson we seem to being shown of "various people had different ideas, and sometimes panicked and sometimes quibbled in the face of something more serious than tomorrows Express headline".

    Or indeed that there was something more serious than an Express headline.
    I'm sure there are people learning valuable lessons about the pandemic.

    I'm much less sure those lessons will find their way into the hands of decision makers next time, or have much impact on preparedness.
    The only lesson learnt I suspect is not to use whatsapp or any messaging where the messages might hang round
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,241
    rcs1000 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Curious to see the Johnsonian diehards and the Corbynites speaking almost with one voice. It's almost as though the past is an anchor trying to pull us back.

    Deltapoll and Redfield & Wilton have gone in different directions this evening - for Deltapoll, it's their lowest Labour VI since March 2022. R&W are much more within their comfort zone with an 18-point Labour lead. There's no indication of the fall in Labour share going straight back to the Conservatives - it's being shared through all parties and perhaps none.

    Interesting to hear Sunak's evidence at the Covid hearing today. I'm not interested in EOTHO as I am in the extent of fraudulent appropriation of Covid funds by individuals and organisations. It's clear billions were handed out often on the most rudimentary evidence of need and unfortunately the opportunity to get free money from the Government has proven too much for some. I've seen figures varying from £5 billion to £15 billion in terms of public money given out either in error or obtained via fraud. Let's hope someone asks the former Chancellor of the Exchequer about that.

    And if frontline services had not got PPI, some would have been screeching about how the government had procurement so much in a bureaucracy they let people die.

    There was a worldwide demand for goods *in a hurry*. 'Normal' processes would never fit the situation.

    Was there waste? Certainly.
    Was there fraud? Some, perhaps. The legal eagles will sort that out.
    Did frontline services get PPI they would not otherwise have got? IMV yes.

    The question is who you weigh those up. And I might suggest the way you weigh them up now is very different from how they would have been weighed up in April or May 2020.
    This is such a false dichotomy.

    We wasted oodles of money and *precious time* procuring PPE from people with no experience who never supplied nor could have supplied what we wanted. While actual suppliers got left out because they didn't know the right MP.
    Yet look at what Labour were calling for at the time, with equally untried companies being named as potential sources. "Why haven't you tried them?"

    "While actual suppliers got left out because they didn't know the right MP."

    Source, please, as I haven't heard that.
    Remember, virtually every country in the
    world was after the *same* PPE.
    It’s bullshit

    We did deals with Molnlycke but the French seized the goods we had purchased

    The US banned 3M from exporting their products.


    There was some fairly awful behaviour, as countries turned very insular. The US, the French and the Germans all ripped up export orders at one point or another.

    As far as I'm aware, the UK did not ban
    export of either PPE or vaccines. Which - I would hope - will payoff in the future. Companies want to manufacture in places which recognise contractual obligations.
    They manufacture in the countries that pay them the most bribesstrategic investment grants
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,241

    rcs1000 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Curious to see the Johnsonian diehards and the Corbynites speaking almost with one voice. It's almost as though the past is an anchor trying to pull us back.

    Deltapoll and Redfield & Wilton have gone in different directions this evening - for Deltapoll, it's their lowest Labour VI since March 2022. R&W are much more within their comfort zone with an 18-point Labour lead. There's no indication of the fall in Labour share going straight back to the Conservatives - it's being shared through all parties and perhaps none.

    Interesting to hear Sunak's evidence at the Covid hearing today. I'm not interested in EOTHO as I am in the extent of fraudulent appropriation of Covid funds by individuals and organisations. It's clear billions were handed out often on the most rudimentary evidence of need and unfortunately the opportunity to get free money from the Government has proven too much for some. I've seen figures varying from £5 billion to £15 billion in terms of public money given out either in error or obtained via fraud. Let's hope someone asks the former Chancellor of the Exchequer about that.

    And if frontline services had not got PPI, some would have been screeching about how the government had procurement so much in a bureaucracy they let people die.

    There was a worldwide demand for goods *in a hurry*. 'Normal' processes would never fit the situation.

    Was there waste? Certainly.
    Was there fraud? Some, perhaps. The legal eagles will sort that out.
    Did frontline services get PPI they would not otherwise have got? IMV yes.

    The question is who you weigh those up. And I might suggest the way you weigh them up now is very different from how they would have been weighed up in April or May 2020.
    This is such a false dichotomy.

    We wasted oodles of money and *precious time* procuring PPE from people with no experience who never supplied nor could have supplied what we wanted. While actual suppliers got left out because they didn't know the right MP.
    Yet look at what Labour were calling for at the time, with equally untried companies being named as potential sources. "Why haven't you tried them?"

    "While actual suppliers got left out because they didn't know the right MP."

    Source, please, as I haven't heard that.
    Remember, virtually every country in the
    world was after the *same* PPE.
    It’s bullshit

    We did deals with Molnlycke but the French seized the goods we had purchased

    The US banned 3M from exporting their products.


    There was some fairly awful behaviour, as countries turned very insular. The US, the French and the Germans all ripped up export orders at one point or another.

    As far as I'm aware, the UK did not ban export of either PPE or vaccines. Which - I would hope - will payoff in the future. Companies want to manufacture in places which recognise contractual obligations.
    I think the EU going apeshit over U.K. vaccines was a defining moment in showing that the EU was not always the good guys in Brexit negotiations.
    You’re forgetting the weaponisation of the NI border by VdL
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,779
    isam said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Why are some left-wingers so grumpy at the moment, despite being 20% ahead in the polls? I can only assume they still wish Corbyn was leader instead of Starmer.

    Simply put because currently the tories are left footers and starmers labour is to the right of them. The lefties love to call far right but look at the high tax, high spend, high immigration the tories foster and they are almost as left wing as corbyn. About the only thing they dont do that corbyn would do is hug a hamas
    Is Rwanda the only thing the Tories have done in govt that Labour supporters can genuinely grumble about? The thing that’s a bit right wing?

    Immigration, tax and spending are all up

    Seems to me it is just personalities that upset them most, and a lack of perceived control because it’s not the people they’d vote for calling the shots
    Isn't current Labour policy to support the general Rwanda policy? I've admittedly lost track how how many legs are good/bad.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549

    "I would like to have seen Brent Cross West..."







































    Thanks for the photos Sunil.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,870
    isam said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Why are some left-wingers so grumpy at the moment, despite being 20% ahead in the polls? I can only assume they still wish Corbyn was leader instead of Starmer.

    Simply put because currently the tories are left footers and starmers labour is to the right of them. The lefties love to call far right but look at the high tax, high spend, high immigration the tories foster and they are almost as left wing as corbyn. About the only thing they dont do that corbyn would do is hug a hamas
    Is Rwanda the only thing the Tories have done in govt that Labour supporters can genuinely grumble about? The thing that’s a bit right wing?

    Immigration, tax and spending are all up

    Seems to me it is just personalities that upset them most, and a lack of perceived control because it’s not the people they’d vote for calling the shots
    Yes but thats a what they say thing not what they are doing....all their actions scream left wing...just because what they say doesn't match makes no difference....if I am dating someone and they proclaim their fidelity while keep sleeping with people I believe their actions not their rhetoric
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    "Fifth of British public would support reintroduction of Covid restrictions
    Poll surveying more than 2,000 people over 18 finds those aged 25 to 42 most likely to back restrictions"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/12/11/fifth-of-public-support-reintroduction-covid-restrictions/
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,779
    kle4 said:

    ohnotnow said:

    "I would like to have seen Brent Cross West..."







































    Impressive.

    But just reminds us oinks from the North that time after time after time transport money is funnelled into London and the rest of us can go f*ck ourselves.

    What is this "North" you speak of? Is that where we occasionally increase or decrease our majority? Oh! No! It's the place R4 recruit their 'authentic' voices from, now I remember!

    Somewhat related... I remember listening to a 'PM' R4 programme and the presenter opening a conversation with a non-London teacher with "So, what's it like being a teacher with an accent?". At which point I turned off.
    I don't think true equality will be achieved in this country until we elect a PM who talks with an incomprehensible West Country or Geordie accent.

    As a West Country lad I very rarely come across such an accent though, so it may be dying already.
    WHAT'S THAT? SPEAK LOUDER! DO - YOU - HAVE - A - COTTAGE - TO - SELL? sheesh.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,413
    Andy_JS said:

    "Fifth of British public would support reintroduction of Covid restrictions
    Poll surveying more than 2,000 people over 18 finds those aged 25 to 42 most likely to back restrictions"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/12/11/fifth-of-public-support-reintroduction-covid-restrictions/

    Who are these people?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,241
    Scott_xP said:

    @BethRigby

    NEW: On the point I’ve been making about a win tomorrow being a crisis delayed not resolved. Senior right winger tells me tonight: “The best the PM can hope for tomorrow is a phyrric victory.”

    I thought journalists were supposed to be able to spell?
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728

    Scott_xP said:

    @BethRigby

    NEW: On the point I’ve been making about a win tomorrow being a crisis delayed not resolved. Senior right winger tells me tonight: “The best the PM can hope for tomorrow is a phyrric victory.”

    I thought journalists were supposed to be able to spell?
    That's the subs.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,870
    ohnotnow said:

    isam said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Why are some left-wingers so grumpy at the moment, despite being 20% ahead in the polls? I can only assume they still wish Corbyn was leader instead of Starmer.

    Simply put because currently the tories are left footers and starmers labour is to the right of them. The lefties love to call far right but look at the high tax, high spend, high immigration the tories foster and they are almost as left wing as corbyn. About the only thing they dont do that corbyn would do is hug a hamas
    Is Rwanda the only thing the Tories have done in govt that Labour supporters can genuinely grumble about? The thing that’s a bit right wing?

    Immigration, tax and spending are all up

    Seems to me it is just personalities that upset them most, and a lack of perceived control because it’s not the people they’d vote for calling the shots
    Isn't current Labour policy to support the general Rwanda policy? I've admittedly lost track how how many legs are good/bad.
    People make a big fuss about polls, frankly till the election is called and manifesto's published and campaigns underway they are as useful as a chocolate teapot. In 2017 may was 20% ahead till the election was called and manifesto's unleashed. I expect a hung parliament frankly and the lib dems to underwhelm as usual and not much change from their current seat numbers
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    ohnotnow said:

    isam said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Why are some left-wingers so grumpy at the moment, despite being 20% ahead in the polls? I can only assume they still wish Corbyn was leader instead of Starmer.

    Simply put because currently the tories are left footers and starmers labour is to the right of them. The lefties love to call far right but look at the high tax, high spend, high immigration the tories foster and they are almost as left wing as corbyn. About the only thing they dont do that corbyn would do is hug a hamas
    Is Rwanda the only thing the Tories have done in govt that Labour supporters can genuinely grumble about? The thing that’s a bit right wing?

    Immigration, tax and spending are all up

    Seems to me it is just personalities that upset them most, and a lack of perceived control because it’s not the people they’d vote for calling the shots
    Isn't current Labour policy to support the general Rwanda policy? I've admittedly lost track how how many legs are good/bad.
    Is it? Sorry I assumed they were against it
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Farage seems to be gearing up for a return to politics here. Is it significant that he doesn’t name Boris as one of the guilty party?

    The truth is we're living through a mass population crisis, and this government just couldn't care less. Immigration is the number one issue in British politics.

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1734340232571760778?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,870
    isam said:

    ohnotnow said:

    isam said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Why are some left-wingers so grumpy at the moment, despite being 20% ahead in the polls? I can only assume they still wish Corbyn was leader instead of Starmer.

    Simply put because currently the tories are left footers and starmers labour is to the right of them. The lefties love to call far right but look at the high tax, high spend, high immigration the tories foster and they are almost as left wing as corbyn. About the only thing they dont do that corbyn would do is hug a hamas
    Is Rwanda the only thing the Tories have done in govt that Labour supporters can genuinely grumble about? The thing that’s a bit right wing?

    Immigration, tax and spending are all up

    Seems to me it is just personalities that upset them most, and a lack of perceived control because it’s not the people they’d vote for calling the shots
    Isn't current Labour policy to support the general Rwanda policy? I've admittedly lost track how how many legs are good/bad.
    Is it? Sorry I assumed they were against it
    Starmer is still waiting for the focus groups to report before he decides pro or anti
  • Pagan2 said:

    ohnotnow said:

    isam said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Why are some left-wingers so grumpy at the moment, despite being 20% ahead in the polls? I can only assume they still wish Corbyn was leader instead of Starmer.

    Simply put because currently the tories are left footers and starmers labour is to the right of them. The lefties love to call far right but look at the high tax, high spend, high immigration the tories foster and they are almost as left wing as corbyn. About the only thing they dont do that corbyn would do is hug a hamas
    Is Rwanda the only thing the Tories have done in govt that Labour supporters can genuinely grumble about? The thing that’s a bit right wing?

    Immigration, tax and spending are all up

    Seems to me it is just personalities that upset them most, and a lack of perceived control because it’s not the people they’d vote for calling the shots
    Isn't current Labour policy to support the general Rwanda policy? I've admittedly lost track how how many legs are good/bad.
    People make a big fuss about polls, frankly till the election is called and manifesto's published and campaigns underway they are as useful as a chocolate teapot. In 2017 may was 20% ahead till the election was called and manifesto's unleashed. I expect a hung parliament frankly and the lib dems to underwhelm as usual and not much change from their current seat numbers
    Agreed I don't think LDs will do much and will end up with 20 - 25.

    However LAB look huge in Scotland and should end up with around 340 even though there is no enthusiasm for them and may 'only' get 37 or 38%.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,779
    As train station pictures are all the rage, this shot I took came to mind in relation to the immigration debate.


  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,082

    Andy_JS said:

    "Fifth of British public would support reintroduction of Covid restrictions
    Poll surveying more than 2,000 people over 18 finds those aged 25 to 42 most likely to back restrictions"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/12/11/fifth-of-public-support-reintroduction-covid-restrictions/

    Who are these people?
    I wouldn't like to know them, that's for sure, but given it's my age group that is most enthusiastic that's sadly unlikely.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,779
    ohnotnow said:

    As train station pictures are all the rage, this shot I took came to mind in relation to the immigration debate.


    Also, whatever PB or vanilla that is resizing these images, wtf?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,618
    isam said:

    Farage seems to be gearing up for a return to politics here. Is it significant that he doesn’t name Boris as one of the guilty party?

    The truth is we're living through a mass population crisis, and this government just couldn't care less. Immigration is the number one issue in British politics.

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1734340232571760778

    He's right about where the faultline on the right lies.

    If he can ressurect the level of professionalism of the Brexit Party's campaign in early 2019 then the Tories could be facing an existential crisis.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,263
    ohnotnow said:

    As train station pictures are all the rage, this shot I took came to mind in relation to the immigration debate.


    Is that the site of the famous scene in Trainspotting, where the Scotch addicts whine about being colonised?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,779
    isam said:

    ohnotnow said:

    isam said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Why are some left-wingers so grumpy at the moment, despite being 20% ahead in the polls? I can only assume they still wish Corbyn was leader instead of Starmer.

    Simply put because currently the tories are left footers and starmers labour is to the right of them. The lefties love to call far right but look at the high tax, high spend, high immigration the tories foster and they are almost as left wing as corbyn. About the only thing they dont do that corbyn would do is hug a hamas
    Is Rwanda the only thing the Tories have done in govt that Labour supporters can genuinely grumble about? The thing that’s a bit right wing?

    Immigration, tax and spending are all up

    Seems to me it is just personalities that upset them most, and a lack of perceived control because it’s not the people they’d vote for calling the shots
    Isn't current Labour policy to support the general Rwanda policy? I've admittedly lost track how how many legs are good/bad.
    Is it? Sorry I assumed they were against it
    That was yesterday. Or today. Or Thursday afternoon. Depending.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    Bizarre.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/12/11/columbia-road-carols-cancelled-after-7000-tiktokers-descend

    "Carols at a London Christmas market have been cancelled for the rest of the year after 7,000 people descended on the service, which had gone viral on TikTok.

    Huge crowds of visitors came to take part in carolling at Columbia Road in Bethnal Green, east London, causing “a danger to public safety”.

    The vicar of St Peter’s Bethnal Green, which leads the services, announced that the events due to be held on the next two Wednesdays in December were cancelled after the road became “dangerously overrun”.

    In a statement, Rev Heather Atkinson said the church was “grateful to God and to those working at the event that there were no serious injuries”."
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,779
    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    As train station pictures are all the rage, this shot I took came to mind in relation to the immigration debate.


    Is that the site of the famous scene in Trainspotting, where the Scotch addicts whine about being colonised?
    They give up when they see it. Which is somewhat more emblematic.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,263
    isam said:

    Farage seems to be gearing up for a return to politics here. Is it significant that he doesn’t name Boris as one of the guilty party?

    The truth is we're living through a mass population crisis, and this government just couldn't care less. Immigration is the number one issue in British politics.

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1734340232571760778?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Boris is famously relaxed about immigration, especially of bodacious blondes etc

    I don't see how a Bozza-Farag etag team works out. However I do think we are about to see the first real populist rightwing party in the UK, exploiting migration issues, impacting domestic elex

    It is inevitable. It will either be the Tory party reformed or a new party. Britain is not immune to the pressures felt by every other democracy in the West
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728
    Pagan2 said:

    isam said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Why are some left-wingers so grumpy at the moment, despite being 20% ahead in the polls? I can only assume they still wish Corbyn was leader instead of Starmer.

    Simply put because currently the tories are left footers and starmers labour is to the right of them. The lefties love to call far right but look at the high tax, high spend, high immigration the tories foster and they are almost as left wing as corbyn. About the only thing they dont do that corbyn would do is hug a hamas
    Is Rwanda the only thing the Tories have done in govt that Labour supporters can genuinely grumble about? The thing that’s a bit right wing?

    Immigration, tax and spending are all up

    Seems to me it is just personalities that upset them most, and a lack of perceived control because it’s not the people they’d vote for calling the shots
    Yes but thats a what they say thing not what they are doing....all their actions scream left wing...just because what they say doesn't match makes no difference....if I am dating someone and they proclaim their fidelity while keep sleeping with people I believe their actions not their rhetoric
    I mean for most of us it's 13 years of failure, getting poorer, worsening public services, housing more unaffordable. Leaving the EU, meaning we've lost rights we had before - and contributed to our worsening finances. The self-defeating nature of austerity for local government. Botching important infrastructure projects. The Tories have generally been a complete disaster for Britain if you're not over 50, or very wealthy. I know it was several leaders ago but Windrush was also appalling.

    As for the Corbynites, they're furious *because* Starmer is 20 points up in the polls as their worldview was predicated on the idea that centre-left politics was done for (remember 'Pasokification').

    Labour winning - and winning well - is probably the end of 'the movement' as anything other than a marginal talking shop reminiscing about its glory days - for now at least. Doubly so if Starmer's government actually does a reasonable job of cleaning up the mess.

    That's very upsetting if you need to get a new job or hobby until you might be relevant again in a decade or two, when if the far left does return to relevance, it'll be another generation who are the cool kids getting to play romantic revolutionaries.
  • Completely off topic but is anyone having problems with Netflix currently on a Smart TV? Not working currently with either TV despite both showing a solid internet signal and it working just fine on my phone app.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Leon said:

    isam said:

    Farage seems to be gearing up for a return to politics here. Is it significant that he doesn’t name Boris as one of the guilty party?

    The truth is we're living through a mass population crisis, and this government just couldn't care less. Immigration is the number one issue in British politics.

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1734340232571760778?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Boris is famously relaxed about immigration, especially of bodacious blondes etc

    I don't see how a Bozza-Farag etag team works out. However I do think we are about to see the first real populist rightwing party in the UK, exploiting migration issues, impacting domestic elex

    It is inevitable. It will either be the Tory party reformed or a new party. Britain is not immune to the pressures felt by every other democracy in the West
    Yes, Boris and Farage aren’t really cut from the same cloth - I’d imagine Farage to be far more ruthless and hard nosed, and he actually is a conviction politician. Boris jumped on the Brexit horse and tried to please everyone, whereas Farage is more comfortable being unpopular.

    There must be a reason he name checked Sunak and Cameron though - maybe it’s because Boris is still quite popular with the voters Farage is after


  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Completely off topic but is anyone having problems with Netflix currently on a Smart TV? Not working currently with either TV despite both showing a solid internet signal and it working just fine on my phone app.

    Had loads of aggro lately with it not loading
  • Leon said:

    isam said:

    Farage seems to be gearing up for a return to politics here. Is it significant that he doesn’t name Boris as one of the guilty party?

    The truth is we're living through a mass population crisis, and this government just couldn't care less. Immigration is the number one issue in British politics.

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1734340232571760778?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Boris is famously relaxed about immigration, especially of bodacious blondes etc

    I don't see how a Bozza-Farag etag team works out. However I do think we are about to see the first real populist rightwing party in the UK, exploiting migration issues, impacting domestic elex

    It is inevitable. It will either be the Tory party reformed or a new party. Britain is not immune to the pressures felt by every other democracy in the West
    Immigration wise - Boris is the most relaxed by far of recent PMs.
  • Andy_JS said:

    "One Nation Tory MPs vow to drop support for Rwanda bill if there are amendments as ERG calls for it to be rewritten"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2023/dec/11/rishi-sunak-covid-inquiry-conservatives-rwanda-asylum-bill-uk-politics-live

    Sunak's played another blinder hasn't he.

    As frequently pointed out on here, instead of bigging up the relative improvement in boat numbers this year, he has focused on it as major issue and is now busily failing to deliver a solution. Supremely bad politics.
    Rishi Sunak is (almost) as crap a politico, at basic politics, as Hillary Clinton.

    Note that RS's mishandling of politics of immigration is eerily reminiscent (at least to me) of HRC's mishandling of politics of health care.
  • Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    As train station pictures are all the rage, this shot I took came to mind in relation to the immigration debate.


    Is that the site of the famous scene in Trainspotting, where the Scotch addicts whine about being colonised?
    Every scene is famous in Born Slippy.

    It is Corrour station apparently.


  • Andy_JS said:

    "One Nation Tory MPs vow to drop support for Rwanda bill if there are amendments as ERG calls for it to be rewritten"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2023/dec/11/rishi-sunak-covid-inquiry-conservatives-rwanda-asylum-bill-uk-politics-live

    Sunak's played another blinder hasn't he.

    As frequently pointed out on here, instead of bigging up the relative improvement in boat numbers this year, he has focused on it as major issue and is now busily failing to deliver a solution. Supremely bad politics.
    Rishi Sunak is (almost) as crap a politico, at basic politics, as Hillary Clinton.

    Note that RS's mishandling of politics of immigration is eerily reminiscent (at least to me) of HRC's mishandling of politics of health care.
    Hillary is worse.

    She actually had a husband who was a genius at retail politics to advise her and who apparently warned her she was losing Wisconsin against Trump and she should go there and campaign as a high priority.

    She deferred to a data science polling team of teenage scribblers.

    He knew his people and she did not.

    How would the world be different?

    It is astonishing to think.



  • ohnotnow said:

    isam said:

    Of the many shocking charts in the @csjthinktank report on the impacts of lockdown, this is one of the most striking.

    Benefit claimants doubled during the lockdowns, and never came down again.

    You'd think this *might* be relevant to the Covid enquiry 🧐





    https://x.com/freddiesayers/status/1734239508449653159?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    You’d think. But the inquiry is (perplexingly) focused on the process by which decisions were reached, rather than the quality of the decisions themselves.
    I keep myself warm of an evening imagining that somewhere there is an academic department or group of civil servants who are charged with actually learning the lessons of the pandemic. Rather than the very, very expensive lesson we seem to being shown of "various people had different ideas, and sometimes panicked and sometimes quibbled in the face of something more serious than tomorrows Express headline".

    Or indeed that there was something more serious than an Express headline.
    I hope there is a whole module on Sweden and they will actually talk to Anders Tegnel.

    But I guess I am dreaming.
    If we had followed Tegnel's lead the number of deaths in the UK would have been astronomically higher. The Swedish death rate compared to all of their neighbours was shameful.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728
    isam said:

    ohnotnow said:

    isam said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Why are some left-wingers so grumpy at the moment, despite being 20% ahead in the polls? I can only assume they still wish Corbyn was leader instead of Starmer.

    Simply put because currently the tories are left footers and starmers labour is to the right of them. The lefties love to call far right but look at the high tax, high spend, high immigration the tories foster and they are almost as left wing as corbyn. About the only thing they dont do that corbyn would do is hug a hamas
    Is Rwanda the only thing the Tories have done in govt that Labour supporters can genuinely grumble about? The thing that’s a bit right wing?

    Immigration, tax and spending are all up

    Seems to me it is just personalities that upset them most, and a lack of perceived control because it’s not the people they’d vote for calling the shots
    Isn't current Labour policy to support the general Rwanda policy? I've admittedly lost track how how many legs are good/bad.
    Is it? Sorry I assumed they were against it
    No, they've said they'd scrap it. Mischief makers online tried to claim Yvette Cooper had said they wouldn't scrap it while sharing a clip in which she clearly said she would do.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,705
    edited December 2023

    ohnotnow said:

    isam said:

    Of the many shocking charts in the @csjthinktank report on the impacts of lockdown, this is one of the most striking.

    Benefit claimants doubled during the lockdowns, and never came down again.

    You'd think this *might* be relevant to the Covid enquiry 🧐





    https://x.com/freddiesayers/status/1734239508449653159?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    You’d think. But the inquiry is (perplexingly) focused on the process by which decisions were reached, rather than the quality of the decisions themselves.
    I keep myself warm of an evening imagining that somewhere there is an academic department or group of civil servants who are charged with actually learning the lessons of the pandemic. Rather than the very, very expensive lesson we seem to being shown of "various people had different ideas, and sometimes panicked and sometimes quibbled in the face of something more serious than tomorrows Express headline".

    Or indeed that there was something more serious than an Express headline.
    I hope there is a whole module on Sweden and they will actually talk to Anders Tegnel.

    But I guess I am dreaming.
    If we had followed Tegnel's lead the number of deaths in the UK would have been astronomically higher. The Swedish death rate compared to all of their neighbours was shameful.
    Well let's look at excess deaths over time which was part of Tegnel's argument.

    But whatever. All I am asking is this inquiry actually inquire into something that has some real meat about the next time we get hit by some kind of bat flu thing.

    If Sweden were so wrong then bring it into the inquiry, debate it, quiz people, look at data and so on.

    But oh no, much more important to look at whether a senior civil servant called another a cunt on Whatsapp.

  • Scott_xP said:

    @BethRigby

    NEW: On the point I’ve been making about a win tomorrow being a crisis delayed not resolved. Senior right winger tells me tonight: “The best the PM can hope for tomorrow is a phyrric victory.”

    I thought journalists were supposed to be able to spell?
    What on earth gave you that idea?

    Sub-editors know that Journos are the world's worst spellers.

    But the industry sacked most of the subs.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Tories poll 28-32 ish I reckon, Labour 38 to 45.

    On EMA currently Tories 26, Labour 43. But Tories could get back say 4% from Reform so I don't disagree.

    Labour with 122 overall majority. Tories down to 204 seats.
    That'll do nicely. (Although I'd prefer an absolute Tory wipe-out because they deserve one.)
    CON probably happy with 200 seats at the moment
    Although they would have hoped for far better after the great victory in 2019, I think at this point they'd take simply doing better than 1997.

    They'd then hope they could avoid a repeat of standing still for a term, and so recovery in 2-3 elections rather than 4.

    It's sometimes easy to forget, for us youngsters, how little they had recovered even by 2005, how much work Cameron still had in front of him.
    The difference between now & 1997 is that back then the Tories were kind of old and stale, they’d clung on last time after winning landslides before, and it was a bit of a managed mediocrity. Labour seemed young and exciting

    This time the Tories have a huge majority, after years of tiny majority, coalition or weird DUP deal, a charismatic leader and a mandate to be revolutionary - it was their 97

    I still think Boris was very unlucky to have to deal with the pandemic; he had a great chance, possibly a once in a generation chance, to do something spectacular and was stopped in his tracks
    You make your own luck. Boris’s great hero, Winston Churchill, was dealt a much tougher hand and history relates what he did with it.

    The great tragicomedy of Boris is that he wanted desperately to be Churchillian; he was given the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to do that, via a terrifying global pandemic; and he flunked it. Utterly. He could have been Churchill - instead he turned out to be just Boris.
    Although Churchill did lose the post war election I think?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    "A US citizen "associated with the secret service" has departed the UK despite "assurances" he would not leave following a car crash in Herefordshire that left a nurse unable to walk.

    Issac Calderon, 22, was due to appear before magistrates on 1 December. He is accused of causing Elizabeth Donowho serious injury by dangerous driving. Police have told Ms Donowho that he was working on matters "that might come under the Official Secrets Act". A warrant has been issued for his arrest after he failed to appear in court."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hereford-worcester-67682464
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,141
    edited December 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    "A US citizen "associated with the secret service" has departed the UK despite "assurances" he would not leave following a car crash in Herefordshire that left a nurse unable to walk.

    Issac Calderon, 22, was due to appear before magistrates on 1 December. He is accused of causing Elizabeth Donowho serious injury by dangerous driving. Police have told Ms Donowho that he was working on matters "that might come under the Official Secrets Act". A warrant has been issued for his arrest after he failed to appear in court."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hereford-worcester-67682464

    It's a weird one. The US Embassy maintains that he is a private citizen.

    He is accused of "Causing Serious Injury By Dangerous Driving" - in this case 2 broken ankles, a fractured sternum and a broken hand - which carries a prison sentence of up to 5 years. The injury standard is approximately the same as GBH.

    He was identified as a flight risk by the police, yet was not remanded in custody by a Judge.

    Unlike Sacoolas we may get this perpetrator back to face justice, but I don't understand why UK authorities made such a comprehensive cockup of the whole thing.

    We don't seem to have sufficient powers to impound travel documents.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/american-driver-secret-service-uk-crash-b2461897.html
  • Andy_JS said:

    "One Nation Tory MPs vow to drop support for Rwanda bill if there are amendments as ERG calls for it to be rewritten"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2023/dec/11/rishi-sunak-covid-inquiry-conservatives-rwanda-asylum-bill-uk-politics-live

    Sunak's played another blinder hasn't he.

    As frequently pointed out on here, instead of bigging up the relative improvement in boat numbers this year, he has focused on it as major issue and is now busily failing to deliver a solution. Supremely bad politics.
    Rishi Sunak is (almost) as crap a politico, at basic politics, as Hillary Clinton.

    Note that RS's mishandling of politics of immigration is eerily reminiscent (at least to me) of HRC's mishandling of politics of health care.
    Hillary is worse.

    She actually had a husband who was a genius at retail politics to advise her and who apparently warned her she was losing Wisconsin against Trump and she should go there and campaign as a high priority.

    She deferred to a data science polling team of teenage scribblers.

    He knew his people and she did not.

    How would the world be different?

    It is astonishing to think.



    TBF she spent loads of time and money in PA and still lost it. If she'd realized the polls were wonky in WI and MI she might have lost by a smaller margin, but she'd be no less not-president.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,618

    Andy_JS said:

    "One Nation Tory MPs vow to drop support for Rwanda bill if there are amendments as ERG calls for it to be rewritten"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2023/dec/11/rishi-sunak-covid-inquiry-conservatives-rwanda-asylum-bill-uk-politics-live

    Sunak's played another blinder hasn't he.

    As frequently pointed out on here, instead of bigging up the relative improvement in boat numbers this year, he has focused on it as major issue and is now busily failing to deliver a solution. Supremely bad politics.
    Rishi Sunak is (almost) as crap a politico, at basic politics, as Hillary Clinton.

    Note that RS's mishandling of politics of immigration is eerily reminiscent (at least to me) of HRC's mishandling of politics of health care.
    Hillary is worse.

    She actually had a husband who was a genius at retail politics to advise her and who apparently warned her she was losing Wisconsin against Trump and she should go there and campaign as a high priority.

    She deferred to a data science polling team of teenage scribblers.

    He knew his people and she did not.

    How would the world be different?

    It is astonishing to think.

    TBF she spent loads of time and money in PA and still lost it. If she'd realized the polls were wonky in WI and MI she might have lost by a smaller margin, but she'd be no less not-president.
    If only she'd said 'basket of adorables' instead...
  • Andy_JS said:

    "I would like to have seen Brent Cross West..."







































    Thanks for the photos Sunil.
    You're welcome! Maintained my 100% record of visiting every station in London!
  • Leon said:

    "I would like to have seen Brent Cross West..."







































    That looks.... rather sleek and impressive, in its modest way. It ain't St Pancras, but what is

    Certainly better than Thanet effing Parkway, or The Bristol Airport Multifaith Smoking Podule
    Yep, definitely so! It's a little bleak on the eastern side, but they've already started building stuff between the railway and Brent Cross itself.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,820
    edited December 2023

    "I would like to have seen Brent Cross West..."







































    Impressive.

    But just reminds us oinks from the North that time after time after time transport money is funnelled into London and the rest of us can go f*ck ourselves.

    "it is one of the first stations in England to be delivered entirely by a local authority." (ie. Barnet Council)

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-67679149
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    I thought the new station would be slightly closer to Brent Cross itself, but it looks like it's just as far from it as Brent Cross tube station is.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,464
    Having watched the NFarage piece on GB news (via witter) I cant work out whether GB news will help or hinder the Comservatives in the run up to GE.... on the one hand it will give them airtime/voice on the other it will help the fruitcakes and loons on the right. Cant make my mind up so wonder what the PB community think?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,618
    https://x.com/melissaeweiss/status/1734382602524426346

    “Were there no Israel, there wouldn’t be a Jew in the world that is safe,” Biden says at the White House Hanukkah party as he reaffirms support for Israel against its war against Hamas.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,140
    Andy_JS said:

    I thought the new station would be slightly closer to Brent Cross itself, but it looks like it's just as far from it as Brent Cross tube station is.

    On average, though, the stations are very close to Brent Cross
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,647
    edited December 2023
    Here's the new Moreland station, Melbourne. The city is removing over 100 level crossings, with the tracks lifted above the city (skyrail) and cycle paths and landscaping installed beneath. 50 stations are being updated as part of the process and its been fun spotting them - including the cyberpunk Coburg and massive train shed at Arden.

    The contrast with the new stations in Highland/Moray/Aberdeenshire... :(



    (I approach my thirties with trepidation. I find myself considering birdwatching...)
  • Completely off topic but is anyone having problems with Netflix currently on a Smart TV? Not working currently with either TV despite both showing a solid internet signal and it working just fine on my phone app.

    Netflix is shit and never shows anything I want to see, except trash.

    Given up on it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    The sense that Britain must be in ruins is, let’s be fair, exacerbated by our hysterical media - mainstream and social

    Exclusive report there from our hysterical media correspondent...
    Well, if you have a venereal disease you'd want to consult with an expert in venereal disease, so who better to advise on hysterical media than an expert media hysteric?
    I suspect he has expertise to offer in both fields tbh
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    Barnesian said:

    Out of curiosity: These Christmas cards that are being sent out in the UK: Are they Christmas cards, or "Holiday" cards, or does that depend on the party and/or sender?

    (Here in my little suburb, we officially celebrate a "holiday". So the town puts up a fancy tree that looks much like a Christmas tree, but has no religious symbols on it. For example, at the top, instead of a star or angel, there is a snowflake.

    Last year, the local Google topped the town by putting up what I would call a "designer tree". (I think I have a picture or two of it.)

    What would I do were I running things? I would allow the local churches to rent spaces during the season, and put up their own trees with -- if they share my tastes -- many home-made ornaments.

    It's Merry Christmas. None of this happy holiday stuff here.
    The irony is that we call it Christmas and mostly don’t believe in it, and the Americans don’t call it Christmas but mostly do
    I absolutely 100% believe in Christmas.

    I believe in Father Christmas, whom I know with iron-clad certainty is real and will be visiting my own children this December using the same logic as René Descartes.

    I believe in festive singing and community spirit, a tradition that goes back at least two and a half thousand years.

    I believe in decorating a Christmas tree, a tradition that goes back at least two and a half thousand years too.

    I believe we are visited every December by mischievous elves who stay in our home and move around every night (which is a bit exhausting at times) and keep an eye on my girls - a tradition that goes back eight years in my house.

    I believe in sharing presents, wishing good tidings to others, spending time with family and everything that goes with Christmas. What's not to believe in there?
    Exactly, Christmas is fun. It’s just a shame that a few killjoys try to bring religion into it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    Of the many shocking charts in the @csjthinktank report on the impacts of lockdown, this is one of the most striking.

    Benefit claimants doubled during the lockdowns, and never came down again.

    You'd think this *might* be relevant to the Covid enquiry 🧐





    https://x.com/freddiesayers/status/1734239508449653159?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    You’d think. But the inquiry is (perplexingly) focused on the process by which decisions were reached, rather than the quality of the decisions themselves.
    There are lessons to be learned about decision making processes, but bad decisions can still be made with good processes of course. And from a casual following of it so far we appear to have learned it was pretty chaotic and tense, which is what you'd expect from a once in a generation event. Absent some finding that some fundamental errors were in play - not consulting people who should have been, not considering information they should have - then determining what worked and what didn't would seem more useful. Not to blame decision makers for doing some of those things, which might have been reasonable at the time, but just to note for next time.
    My perception from her occasional interventions is that the Chair does have at least three quarters of an eye on the lessons, and the final report might be a lot better than the content of the hearings. That the lawyer(s) are focused on their own place in history (or at least in the short-term news cycle) doesn’t necessarily invalidate the whole exercise.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,140
    @BartholomewRoberts

    I too believe in Father Christmas. It's saved me an absolute fortune, as I no longer need to buy my kids presents.

    And if he doesn't deliver on Christmas morning? Well, I guess the kids did something to piss Santa off. Nothing to do with me.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,140

    Completely off topic but is anyone having problems with Netflix currently on a Smart TV? Not working currently with either TV despite both showing a solid internet signal and it working just fine on my phone app.

    Netflix is shit and never shows anything I want to see, except trash.

    Given up on it.
    Wait.

    You want to see trash?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Leon said:

    isam said:

    Farage seems to be gearing up for a return to politics here. Is it significant that he doesn’t name Boris as one of the guilty party?

    The truth is we're living through a mass population crisis, and this government just couldn't care less. Immigration is the number one issue in British politics.

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1734340232571760778?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Boris is famously relaxed about immigration, especially of bodacious blondes etc

    I don't see how a Bozza-Farag etag team works out. However I do think we are about to see the first real populist rightwing party in the UK, exploiting migration issues, impacting domestic elex

    It is inevitable. It will either be the Tory party reformed or a new party. Britain is not immune to the pressures felt by every other democracy in the West
    Hopefully it will be a new party, as the Tory party will retain enough brand loyalty - as Labour demonstrated during the 1980s - to ensure a genuine split.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    The new approach by the government is to highlight Britain’s tradition of liberty and justice and say that removing all rights of appeal would breach international law.

    Nice try though don’t think this will make much difference to the right wing cabal who don’t see asylum seekers as warranting any rights .

    I don’t see how this ends well for Sunak . He might get the Bill through today but the problems begin in the New Year when the right wingers start laying amendments that are likely to breach international law .

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    edited December 2023
    kle4 said:

    Can any legislator be this stupid, or do some not care about being openly pro-Putin anymore?

    I mean, Christ, 'promising he will not continue any further invasions'? Yes, I'm sure having succeeded in his various invasions to date by giving him a deal he would totally uphold a promise this time.

    TBF, Leon, with his rather larger brain, is making essentially the same argument.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723
    If anyone on the site has Croation money at home, you have till 31 Dec to get rid of it as the Euro is now their currency.
    Banks will take it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Can any legislator be this stupid, or do some not care about being openly pro-Putin anymore?

    I mean, Christ, 'promising he will not continue any further invasions'? Yes, I'm sure having succeeded in his various invasions to date by giving him a deal he would totally uphold a promise this time.

    TBF, Leon, with his rather larger brain, is making essentially the same argument.
    ‘Peace in our time’ has a certain ring to it….
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631

    https://x.com/melissaeweiss/status/1734382602524426346

    “Were there no Israel, there wouldn’t be a Jew in the world that is safe,” Biden says at the White House Hanukkah party as he reaffirms support for Israel against its war against Hamas.

    That's a rather bizarre thing to say.

    There are roughly as many Jews in the USA as Israel. Is he telling them that they are not safe there?
  • Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Can any legislator be this stupid, or do some not care about being openly pro-Putin anymore?

    I mean, Christ, 'promising he will not continue any further invasions'? Yes, I'm sure having succeeded in his various invasions to date by giving him a deal he would totally uphold a promise this time.

    TBF, Leon, with his rather larger brain, is making essentially the same argument.
    I would think she is effectively sponsored by Russia.

    Leon I am less sure about.
This discussion has been closed.