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Should we be ready for an early election? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited December 2023 in General
Should we ready for an early election? – politicalbetting.com

Some Tory MPs claim colleagues threatened with an early election if they vote down the billBut a number are sceptical No10 would follow through. One told me they’re minded to vote against providing they can answer the question how this wouldn’t be curtains for Rishi Sunak

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,147
    edited December 2023
    Dave bounce!

    🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨

    Labour lead narrows to eleven percentage points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
    Con 29% (+2)
    Lab 40% (-2)
    Lib Dem 11% (-2)
    Other 21% (+2)
    Fieldwork: 8th-11th December 2023
    Sample: 1,005 GB adults
    (Changes from 1st-4th November 2023)

    https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1734233103000834075
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,513
    Second is the new first.
  • Bring back George Osborne as Chancellor and the Tories will be leading on this metric.

    Regarding perceived economic competence, the gap between @UKLabour and @Conservatives narrows to six percentage points.

    https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1734234405202178123
  • Dave bounce!

    🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨

    Labour lead narrows to eleven percentage points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
    Con 29% (+2)
    Lab 40% (-2)
    Lib Dem 11% (-2)
    Other 21% (+2)
    Fieldwork: 8th-11th December 2023
    Sample: 1,005 GB adults
    (Changes from 1st-4th November 2023)

    https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1734233103000834075

    PB libz are responsible.

    No doubt in a week when it reverts back again it will be just "noise"
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,041
    "his view was that he would eat one of my old trainers if there was an early election"

    Do you have any old trainers ?
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,346

    Dave bounce!

    🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨

    Labour lead narrows to eleven percentage points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
    Con 29% (+2)
    Lab 40% (-2)
    Lib Dem 11% (-2)
    Other 21% (+2)
    Fieldwork: 8th-11th December 2023
    Sample: 1,005 GB adults
    (Changes from 1st-4th November 2023)

    https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1734233103000834075

    If petrol prices continue to fall then the gap will continue to narrow
  • Thur 2 May still looks good.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,262
    edited December 2023
    7th column.

    Need Fishy-Rishi's spreadsheet to keep count.
  • Dave bounce!

    🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨

    Labour lead narrows to eleven percentage points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
    Con 29% (+2)
    Lab 40% (-2)
    Lib Dem 11% (-2)
    Other 21% (+2)
    Fieldwork: 8th-11th December 2023
    Sample: 1,005 GB adults
    (Changes from 1st-4th November 2023)

    https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1734233103000834075

    If CON made David PM maybe CON would be ahead in the polls? Possibly?? 😈😈
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,234
    edited December 2023
    On topic, I think recent events have increased the chances of May rather than Autumn.

    There is every prospect of this Bill running into the sand and, if he cannot find a compromise between wings of his party on what is a key bit of policy for him, that's really difficult in terms of running the Government on towards five years.

    However, I don't think Sunak will allow the Government will "fall" over it causing a February election. More likely, he will back down, take the Bill away for "fine tuning", muddle through to the Budget, and call a May election then.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,309

    Dave bounce!

    🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨

    Labour lead narrows to eleven percentage points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
    Con 29% (+2)
    Lab 40% (-2)
    Lib Dem 11% (-2)
    Other 21% (+2)
    Fieldwork: 8th-11th December 2023
    Sample: 1,005 GB adults
    (Changes from 1st-4th November 2023)

    https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1734233103000834075

    If petrol prices continue to fall then the gap will continue to narrow
    My theory is Labour is losing (over-sampled politically engaged) support to Refuk as the current favourite place to lodge a protest to pollsters.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,529
    Deltapoll, last four polls including this:

    Lab: 44,42,42.40
    Con: 27,28,27,29
    Lib: 10,11,13,11
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,075

    Dave bounce!

    🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨

    Labour lead narrows to eleven percentage points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
    Con 29% (+2)
    Lab 40% (-2)
    Lib Dem 11% (-2)
    Other 21% (+2)
    Fieldwork: 8th-11th December 2023
    Sample: 1,005 GB adults
    (Changes from 1st-4th November 2023)

    https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1734233103000834075

    PB libz are responsible.

    No doubt in a week when it reverts back again it will be just "noise"
    Do you use AA or AAA batteries in your horse? It’s important to choose the right ones.
  • Bring back George Osborne as Chancellor and the Tories will be leading on this metric.

    Regarding perceived economic competence, the gap between @UKLabour and @Conservatives narrows to six percentage points.

    https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1734234405202178123

    Comedy gold. George “total bellend” Osborne is about as popular as a Jewish settler on the West Bank.
  • Thur 2 May still looks good.

    I am in agreement with you on this.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,310
    edited December 2023
    Nigelb said:

    "his view was that he would eat one of my old trainers if there was an early election"

    Do you have any old trainers ?

    Presumably someone who schooled TSE in the fine art of lawyering? JohnO's cannibalism outed :open_mouth:
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,001
    I still think Oct.
  • Nigelb said:

    "his view was that he would eat one of my old trainers if there was an early election"

    Do you have any old trainers ?

    I do. One in red.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,416
    edited December 2023
    Plausibly, yes.

    I am struggling to see the next step for the government if this bill fails or is withdrawn.

    After this week politics will be suspended for Christmas. In that time Rishi has a choice, it seems to me:

    1. If he does nothing, I think it likely he’ll face a VONC in the new year. He probably won’t lose that vote, but it will leave him completely hamstrung (even more than now). I think even if he wins he may have to stand down, and then 3 applies.

    2. He calls a GE early doors January to take place mid feb 2024. He would need to make this a position of taking a hard line on immigration and beefing up the Rwanda policy (in short, I find it difficult how he couldn’t go into that election pledging to leave the ECHR).

    3. He resigns. I think this is much more possible than some seem to think. He’s going to lose the election, his government is falling apart, and he can’t break the deadlock. Why not just throw in the towel and call it quits? Let the Tory Party battle it out over policy, get a new leader and let that leader fight the GE?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,262

    Bring back George Osborne as Chancellor and the Tories will be leading on this metric.

    Regarding perceived economic competence, the gap between @UKLabour and @Conservatives narrows to six percentage points.

    https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1734234405202178123

    Comedy gold. George “total bellend” Osborne is about as popular as a Jewish settler on the West Bank.
    Osborne is now a wino.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,529
    kinabalu said:

    I still think Oct.

    When May was PM I was insistent she would not go to the polls up to and including Monday, then Tues she came out with the lectern. I have got no idea and neither does anybody else. We're just guessing.
  • MattW said:

    Bring back George Osborne as Chancellor and the Tories will be leading on this metric.

    Regarding perceived economic competence, the gap between @UKLabour and @Conservatives narrows to six percentage points.

    https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1734234405202178123

    Comedy gold. George “total bellend” Osborne is about as popular as a Jewish settler on the West Bank.
    Osborne is now a wino.
    Funny he never reacted to the secret letter that came out at his wedding. Reading between the lines, at least one of the accusations suggested activities that are criminal in nature
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,075
    He’s painted himself into a corner on this Rwanda bill. An early election is more plausible than the thread header suggests. This is his flagship policy. It’s on his personal f’in lectern. He’s got the choice of pulling it or losing on it. Where do you go after that?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,455
    edited December 2023
    A really helpful constitutional law analysis of possible implications of the Rwanda (Paddington Bear Removal) Bill from Prof Mark Elliott, and right up to date. Could the courts overturn it? Possibly, because of reasons. Other methods are available.

    https://publiclawforeveryone.com/2023/12/11/could-the-supreme-court-reject-the-rwanda-bill-as-unconstitutional/
  • kinabalu said:

    I still think Oct.

    kinabalu said:

    I still think Oct.

    Same here but I do think the Tories will change leader again.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,147
    edited December 2023

    MattW said:

    Bring back George Osborne as Chancellor and the Tories will be leading on this metric.

    Regarding perceived economic competence, the gap between @UKLabour and @Conservatives narrows to six percentage points.

    https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1734234405202178123

    Comedy gold. George “total bellend” Osborne is about as popular as a Jewish settler on the West Bank.
    Osborne is now a wino.
    Funny he never reacted to the secret letter that came out at his wedding. Reading between the lines, at least one of the accusations suggested activities that are criminal in nature
    Legal action was brought by Osborne’s lawyers after the letter was sent.

    I’ll be happy to pass your details to his lawyers if you like.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,430

    Plausibly, yes.

    I am struggling to see the next step for the government if this bill fails or is withdrawn.

    After this week politics will be suspended for Christmas. In that time Rishi has a choice, it seems to me:

    1. If he does nothing, I think it likely he’ll face a VONC in the new year. He probably won’t lose that vote, but it will leave him completely hamstrung (even more than now). I think even if he wins he may have to stand down, and then 3 applies.

    2. He calls a GE early doors January to take place mid feb 2024. He would need to make this a position of taking a hard line on immigration and beefing up the Rwanda policy (in short, I find it difficult how he couldn’t go into that election pledging to leave the ECHR).

    3. He resigns. I think this is much more possible than some seem to think. He’s going to lose the election, his government is falling apart, and he can’t break the deadlock. Why not just throw in the towel and call it quits? Let the Tory Party battle it out over policy, get a new leader and let that leader fight the GE?

    4 Do a John Major with a back me or sack me contest?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,455

    Plausibly, yes.

    I am struggling to see the next step for the government if this bill fails or is withdrawn.

    After this week politics will be suspended for Christmas. In that time Rishi has a choice, it seems to me:

    1. If he does nothing, I think it likely he’ll face a VONC in the new year. He probably won’t lose that vote, but it will leave him completely hamstrung (even more than now). I think even if he wins he may have to stand down, and then 3 applies.

    2. He calls a GE early doors January to take place mid feb 2024. He would need to make this a position of taking a hard line on immigration and beefing up the Rwanda policy (in short, I find it difficult how he couldn’t go into that election pledging to leave the ECHR).

    3. He resigns. I think this is much more possible than some seem to think. He’s going to lose the election, his government is falling apart, and he can’t break the deadlock. Why not just throw in the towel and call it quits? Let the Tory Party battle it out over policy, get a new leader and let that leader fight the GE?

    Agree. Rishi could end up/already is in a no way forward position.

    One thread of this multiple folly is that the internal Tory debate - in which every Tory MP thinks the bill is either too soft or too hard and everyone knows that Cleverley thinks his own bill is crazy - is also pointless.

    The Commons can delay it for a matter of days or weeks, the Lords can delay it for a year, and the immediate generic legal challenges (I can think of some and I am not being paid to) would take at least 6 months as there is plainly stuff of public importance to go to the SC. There would then be each individual challenge...

    By which time there would have been a Labour government for some months.

    So this is merely a PR stunt (a worse one would have done but I can't think of one) and the essence of the stunt is that it proves Tories have a line on Johnny Foreigner of election winning proportions. Any good it could do as that PR stunt is being trashed by the Tory MPs.

    This is neither Machiavelli nor statesmanship. It has its comic side.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,940
    DougSeal said:

    He’s painted himself into a corner on this Rwanda bill. An early election is more plausible than the thread header suggests. This is his flagship policy. It’s on his personal f’in lectern. He’s got the choice of pulling it or losing on it. Where do you go after that?

    Arguably it was Suella Braverman who painted him into it. She's still underestimated.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,266
    edited December 2023
    Have the Tories figured out a way to harness Nigel's stardust yet? Perhaps Rishi could appoint him to head a Royal Commission on immigration. That way he can kick Rwanda into the long grass ('I will not comment further until Nigel presents his findings') and an appreciative nation will see that Nigel's talent for solving thorny political problems with guile and determination has not gone to waste. What's not to like?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,455

    Plausibly, yes.

    I am struggling to see the next step for the government if this bill fails or is withdrawn.

    After this week politics will be suspended for Christmas. In that time Rishi has a choice, it seems to me:

    1. If he does nothing, I think it likely he’ll face a VONC in the new year. He probably won’t lose that vote, but it will leave him completely hamstrung (even more than now). I think even if he wins he may have to stand down, and then 3 applies.

    2. He calls a GE early doors January to take place mid feb 2024. He would need to make this a position of taking a hard line on immigration and beefing up the Rwanda policy (in short, I find it difficult how he couldn’t go into that election pledging to leave the ECHR).

    3. He resigns. I think this is much more possible than some seem to think. He’s going to lose the election, his government is falling apart, and he can’t break the deadlock. Why not just throw in the towel and call it quits? Let the Tory Party battle it out over policy, get a new leader and let that leader fight the GE?

    4 Do a John Major with a back me or sack me contest?
    IIRC the current rules don't allow Major's method of inviting anyone who is hard enough to fight him.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,041
    The regime JD Vance wants to entrust Ukraine's future to.

    Lawyers for Alexey Navalny said they have lost contact with him, and his whereabouts are unknown. This was exactly the same scenario w/Sergei Magnitsky before he was discovered to have been killed. Let’s hope he hasn’t suffered the same fate as Sergei
    https://twitter.com/Billbrowder/status/1734231069182799972
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789

    Dave bounce!

    🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨

    Labour lead narrows to eleven percentage points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
    Con 29% (+2)
    Lab 40% (-2)
    Lib Dem 11% (-2)
    Other 21% (+2)
    Fieldwork: 8th-11th December 2023
    Sample: 1,005 GB adults
    (Changes from 1st-4th November 2023)

    https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1734233103000834075

    If petrol prices continue to fall then the gap will continue to narrow
    The Conservatives are up or down a bit, from poll to poll, but there does seem to be a gradual drift down in Labour support, across the polls.

    Of course, this would still give Labour a clear majority.
  • DougSeal said:

    He’s painted himself into a corner on this Rwanda bill. An early election is more plausible than the thread header suggests. This is his flagship policy. It’s on his personal f’in lectern. He’s got the choice of pulling it or losing on it. Where do you go after that?

    Arguably it was Suella Braverman who painted him into it. She's still underestimated.
    Do you think she could get through to the final 2 in a leadership contest? I have severe doubts.
  • DougSeal said:

    He’s painted himself into a corner on this Rwanda bill. An early election is more plausible than the thread header suggests. This is his flagship policy. It’s on his personal f’in lectern. He’s got the choice of pulling it or losing on it. Where do you go after that?

    Arguably it was Suella Braverman who painted him into it. She's still underestimated.
    Cambridge-educated lawyer klaxon.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,430

    Plausibly, yes.

    I am struggling to see the next step for the government if this bill fails or is withdrawn.

    After this week politics will be suspended for Christmas. In that time Rishi has a choice, it seems to me:

    1. If he does nothing, I think it likely he’ll face a VONC in the new year. He probably won’t lose that vote, but it will leave him completely hamstrung (even more than now). I think even if he wins he may have to stand down, and then 3 applies.

    2. He calls a GE early doors January to take place mid feb 2024. He would need to make this a position of taking a hard line on immigration and beefing up the Rwanda policy (in short, I find it difficult how he couldn’t go into that election pledging to leave the ECHR).

    3. He resigns. I think this is much more possible than some seem to think. He’s going to lose the election, his government is falling apart, and he can’t break the deadlock. Why not just throw in the towel and call it quits? Let the Tory Party battle it out over policy, get a new leader and let that leader fight the GE?

    4 Do a John Major with a back me or sack me contest?
    5 Do an Arthur Balfour 1905 resignation and put Starmer in before a general election?
  • algarkirk said:

    Plausibly, yes.

    I am struggling to see the next step for the government if this bill fails or is withdrawn.

    After this week politics will be suspended for Christmas. In that time Rishi has a choice, it seems to me:

    1. If he does nothing, I think it likely he’ll face a VONC in the new year. He probably won’t lose that vote, but it will leave him completely hamstrung (even more than now). I think even if he wins he may have to stand down, and then 3 applies.

    2. He calls a GE early doors January to take place mid feb 2024. He would need to make this a position of taking a hard line on immigration and beefing up the Rwanda policy (in short, I find it difficult how he couldn’t go into that election pledging to leave the ECHR).

    3. He resigns. I think this is much more possible than some seem to think. He’s going to lose the election, his government is falling apart, and he can’t break the deadlock. Why not just throw in the towel and call it quits? Let the Tory Party battle it out over policy, get a new leader and let that leader fight the GE?

    Agree. Rishi could end up/already is in a no way forward position.

    One thread of this multiple folly is that the internal Tory debate - in which every Tory MP thinks the bill is either too soft or too hard and everyone knows that Cleverley thinks his own bill is crazy - is also pointless.

    The Commons can delay it for a matter of days or weeks, the Lords can delay it for a year, and the immediate generic legal challenges (I can think of some and I am not being paid to) would take at least 6 months as there is plainly stuff of public importance to go to the SC. There would then be each individual challenge...

    By which time there would have been a Labour government for some months.

    So this is merely a PR stunt (a worse one would have done but I can't think of one) and the essence of the stunt is that it proves Tories have a line on Johnny Foreigner of election winning proportions. Any good it could do as that PR stunt is being trashed by the Tory MPs.

    This is neither Machiavelli nor statesmanship. It has its comic side.
    The dye was cast when he decided to keep the policy. He had an opportunity to take it off the table until after the election. Any halfway savvy political operator would have done so. But he doubled down, and doomed himself in the process. He is now in a complete mess of his own making. No way out.
  • DougSeal said:

    He’s painted himself into a corner on this Rwanda bill. An early election is more plausible than the thread header suggests. This is his flagship policy. It’s on his personal f’in lectern. He’s got the choice of pulling it or losing on it. Where do you go after that?

    Pulling the legislation will buy Rishi more time. In addition the argument can be made that relatively few boats will arrive over the winter so then refining the proposed legislation is consistent with implementing changes from Spring.

    Christmas recess soon then suddenly we are into January and February without necessarily having a vote on this. Then it's Budget time and then the election can be called late March for 2 May.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,455

    Have the Tories figured out a way to harness Nigel's stardust yet? Perhaps Rishi could appoint him to head a Royal Commission on immigration. That way he can kick Rwanda into the long grass ('I will not comment further until Nigel presents his findings') and an appreciative nation will see that Nigel's talent for solving thorny political problems with guile and determination has not gone to waste. What's not to like?

    Farage, like any good populist, would not accept. Populism does not do committee based analysis of 400,000 pages of evidence + oral evidence from every lobby group on the planet and every academic who has ever published an article and come to reasoned conclusions.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789
    Nigelb said:

    The regime JD Vance wants to entrust Ukraine's future to.

    Lawyers for Alexey Navalny said they have lost contact with him, and his whereabouts are unknown. This was exactly the same scenario w/Sergei Magnitsky before he was discovered to have been killed. Let’s hope he hasn’t suffered the same fate as Sergei
    https://twitter.com/Billbrowder/status/1734231069182799972

    It's what JD Vance would love to do his political opponents.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,529
    algarkirk said:

    Plausibly, yes.

    I am struggling to see the next step for the government if this bill fails or is withdrawn.

    After this week politics will be suspended for Christmas. In that time Rishi has a choice, it seems to me:

    1. If he does nothing, I think it likely he’ll face a VONC in the new year. He probably won’t lose that vote, but it will leave him completely hamstrung (even more than now). I think even if he wins he may have to stand down, and then 3 applies.

    2. He calls a GE early doors January to take place mid feb 2024. He would need to make this a position of taking a hard line on immigration and beefing up the Rwanda policy (in short, I find it difficult how he couldn’t go into that election pledging to leave the ECHR).

    3. He resigns. I think this is much more possible than some seem to think. He’s going to lose the election, his government is falling apart, and he can’t break the deadlock. Why not just throw in the towel and call it quits? Let the Tory Party battle it out over policy, get a new leader and let that leader fight the GE?

    4 Do a John Major with a back me or sack me contest?
    IIRC the current rules don't allow Major's method of inviting anyone who is hard enough to fight him.
    When was the last term when we didn't need to know the procedures for a Conservative Leader election? 2010-15?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,309
    There does seem to be a discernible medium term trend downwards in Labour VI, even as Tory support bounces around the mid to high 20s. The absolute gaps remain big but the peaks of Labour support are much lower than they were. What is causing that?

    I don't buy that it's the "not sealed the deal" phenomenon. Labour has as many (or as few) well known policies now as it had a year ago when it was touching 50% in the polls. And I can't see it being to do with Starmer support for Israel and apparent prevarication over Gaza. That's surely only an issue for a small minority of the Left, and we would expect to see Green VI rising if this were really a big driver.

    I do wonder if it's actually a measure of some (very limited) success by the conservatives in getting bread and butter issues off the table and moving the news agenda back on to culture war and immigration. It might not be helping the Tories massively given all the internal chaos, but it's not notably harming their support either. Whereas for Labour I wonder if it's unhelpful.

    I mentioned they could be losing support to Reform. How? Take your average disgruntled voter somewhere in the Red Wall who thinks the country's going to the dogs and the Tories deserve a kicking. A year or 6 months ago they might have argued that the country's going to the dogs because inflation is rampant, nobody's getting a decent pay rise, the roads are full of pot holes and it takes 6 months to get seen on the NHS. Now they might be saying the country's going to the dogs because the government has failed to stop the boats or control immigration. Before the obvious place to move your vote would be Labour. Now perhaps that's Reform.

    Once a voter has shifted to Reform is it possible the Tories could then win them back rather than them slipping back to Labour? Possibly, if they can then make the next election about cultural issues rather than the pound in your pocket.

    All this seasoned with just a touch of Labour not seeming to be any different on economic or public spending policy now.

    I would say Labour needs the political weather to move back on to economy and (particularly) crumbling public services, and it needs to offer something for people to grab on to in this respect.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,234
    edited December 2023
    viewcode said:

    algarkirk said:

    Plausibly, yes.

    I am struggling to see the next step for the government if this bill fails or is withdrawn.

    After this week politics will be suspended for Christmas. In that time Rishi has a choice, it seems to me:

    1. If he does nothing, I think it likely he’ll face a VONC in the new year. He probably won’t lose that vote, but it will leave him completely hamstrung (even more than now). I think even if he wins he may have to stand down, and then 3 applies.

    2. He calls a GE early doors January to take place mid feb 2024. He would need to make this a position of taking a hard line on immigration and beefing up the Rwanda policy (in short, I find it difficult how he couldn’t go into that election pledging to leave the ECHR).

    3. He resigns. I think this is much more possible than some seem to think. He’s going to lose the election, his government is falling apart, and he can’t break the deadlock. Why not just throw in the towel and call it quits? Let the Tory Party battle it out over policy, get a new leader and let that leader fight the GE?

    4 Do a John Major with a back me or sack me contest?
    IIRC the current rules don't allow Major's method of inviting anyone who is hard enough to fight him.
    When was the last term when we didn't need to know the procedures for a Conservative Leader election? 2010-15?
    I understand the point you're making, but surely there comes a point in all leaderships when you need to think about the procedure for electing a successor.

    EDIT: Oh, I get you - you mean the last Parliament in which the issue essentially didn't arise.

  • Out of interest, why does the ERG still exist? I thought its only purpose was to investigate and expose the horrors of Britain's EU membership.
  • Yet one more thing to worry about . . .

    NYT (via Seattle Times) - Once they were pets. Now giant goldfish are menacing the Great Lakes

    Inside a fishbowl, the goldfish — a species of carp native to East Asia, bred for aesthetic delight and traditionally believed to bring good fortune — is hardly more than home décor. Usually just a few inches long, it is among the easiest of pets to keep.

    But released into the wild, the seemingly humble goldfish, freed from glass boundaries and no longer limited to meager meals of flakes, can grow to monstrous proportions. They can even kill off native marine wildlife and help destroy fragile and economically valuable ecosystems.

    “They can eat anything and everything,” said Christine Boston, an aquatic research biologist with Fisheries and Oceans Canada.

    Over the past several years, Boston and her colleagues have been tracking invasive goldfish in Hamilton Harbour, which is on the western tip of Lake Ontario, about 35 miles southwest of Toronto. The bay has been decimated by industrial and urban development as well as by invasive species — making it among the most environmentally degraded areas of the Great Lakes.

    Their study, published last month in the Journal of Great Lakes Research, could help pinpoint goldfish populations for culling, said Boston, who is the lead author. “We found out where they are before they start spawning,” she said. “That’s a good opportunity to get rid of them.” . . .

    Goldfish were first spotted in Hamilton Harbour in the 1960s, but largely died off in the 1970s because of industrial contamination. In the early 2000s, their population appeared to recover. Goldfish can tolerate a wide range of water temperatures, reach sexual maturation quickly, and can eat nearly anything, including algae, aquatic plants, eggs and invertebrates, Boston said.

    Their football-shaped bodies can swell to a size that makes them too large a meal for predators — up to about 16 inches long. “A fish would have to have a really big mouth to eat it,” she said.

    The feral goldfish are also destructive, uprooting and consuming plants that are home to native species. They help spawn harmful algal blooms by consuming the algae and expelling nutrients that promote its growth, Boston said, creating conditions that are intolerable to native fish. . . .

    Climate change may play a role, because of the goldfish’s capacity to adapt to warming and poorly oxygenated waters, he added.

    “There are literally millions of goldfish in the Great Lakes, if not tens of millions,” Mandrak said.

    The problem is not unique to Canada [or the United States]. In Australia, a handful of unwanted pet goldfish and their offspring took over a river in the country’s southwest. Feral goldfish have flooded waterways in the United Kingdom, and, in Burnsville, Minnesota, the discovery of football-size creatures in a lake in 2021 led officials to beg their constituents: “Please don’t release your pet goldfish into ponds and lakes!” . . . .
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,041

    algarkirk said:

    Plausibly, yes.

    I am struggling to see the next step for the government if this bill fails or is withdrawn.

    After this week politics will be suspended for Christmas. In that time Rishi has a choice, it seems to me:

    1. If he does nothing, I think it likely he’ll face a VONC in the new year. He probably won’t lose that vote, but it will leave him completely hamstrung (even more than now). I think even if he wins he may have to stand down, and then 3 applies.

    2. He calls a GE early doors January to take place mid feb 2024. He would need to make this a position of taking a hard line on immigration and beefing up the Rwanda policy (in short, I find it difficult how he couldn’t go into that election pledging to leave the ECHR).

    3. He resigns. I think this is much more possible than some seem to think. He’s going to lose the election, his government is falling apart, and he can’t break the deadlock. Why not just throw in the towel and call it quits? Let the Tory Party battle it out over policy, get a new leader and let that leader fight the GE?

    Agree. Rishi could end up/already is in a no way forward position.

    One thread of this multiple folly is that the internal Tory debate - in which every Tory MP thinks the bill is either too soft or too hard and everyone knows that Cleverley thinks his own bill is crazy - is also pointless.

    The Commons can delay it for a matter of days or weeks, the Lords can delay it for a year, and the immediate generic legal challenges (I can think of some and I am not being paid to) would take at least 6 months as there is plainly stuff of public importance to go to the SC. There would then be each individual challenge...

    By which time there would have been a Labour government for some months.

    So this is merely a PR stunt (a worse one would have done but I can't think of one) and the essence of the stunt is that it proves Tories have a line on Johnny Foreigner of election winning proportions. Any good it could do as that PR stunt is being trashed by the Tory MPs.

    This is neither Machiavelli nor statesmanship. It has its comic side.
    The dye was cast when he decided to keep the policy. He had an opportunity to take it off the table until after the election. Any halfway savvy political operator would have done so. But he doubled down, and doomed himself in the process. He is now in a complete mess of his own making. No way out.
    That's what happens when you throw dye around...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789
    TimS said:

    There does seem to be a discernible medium term trend downwards in Labour VI, even as Tory support bounces around the mid to high 20s. The absolute gaps remain big but the peaks of Labour support are much lower than they were. What is causing that?

    I don't buy that it's the "not sealed the deal" phenomenon. Labour has as many (or as few) well known policies now as it had a year ago when it was touching 50% in the polls. And I can't see it being to do with Starmer support for Israel and apparent prevarication over Gaza. That's surely only an issue for a small minority of the Left, and we would expect to see Green VI rising if this were really a big driver.

    I do wonder if it's actually a measure of some (very limited) success by the conservatives in getting bread and butter issues off the table and moving the news agenda back on to culture war and immigration. It might not be helping the Tories massively given all the internal chaos, but it's not notably harming their support either. Whereas for Labour I wonder if it's unhelpful.

    I mentioned they could be losing support to Reform. How? Take your average disgruntled voter somewhere in the Red Wall who thinks the country's going to the dogs and the Tories deserve a kicking. A year or 6 months ago they might have argued that the country's going to the dogs because inflation is rampant, nobody's getting a decent pay rise, the roads are full of pot holes and it takes 6 months to get seen on the NHS. Now they might be saying the country's going to the dogs because the government has failed to stop the boats or control immigration. Before the obvious place to move your vote would be Labour. Now perhaps that's Reform.

    Once a voter has shifted to Reform is it possible the Tories could then win them back rather than them slipping back to Labour? Possibly, if they can then make the next election about cultural issues rather than the pound in your pocket.

    All this seasoned with just a touch of Labour not seeming to be any different on economic or public spending policy now.

    I would say Labour needs the political weather to move back on to economy and (particularly) crumbling public services, and it needs to offer something for people to grab on to in this respect.

    It could be somewhat similar to the months leading up to June 2010, when Conservative support began to slip.

    Putting in Labour 37%, to 30% Conservative still gives Labour a majority of 50, because the Lib Dems only win a third of the seats they got in 2010.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,744
    TimS said:

    There does seem to be a discernible medium term trend downwards in Labour VI, even as Tory support bounces around the mid to high 20s. The absolute gaps remain big but the peaks of Labour support are much lower than they were. What is causing that?

    I don't buy that it's the "not sealed the deal" phenomenon. Labour has as many (or as few) well known policies now as it had a year ago when it was touching 50% in the polls. And I can't see it being to do with Starmer support for Israel and apparent prevarication over Gaza. That's surely only an issue for a small minority of the Left, and we would expect to see Green VI rising if this were really a big driver.

    I do wonder if it's actually a measure of some (very limited) success by the conservatives in getting bread and butter issues off the table and moving the news agenda back on to culture war and immigration. It might not be helping the Tories massively given all the internal chaos, but it's not notably harming their support either. Whereas for Labour I wonder if it's unhelpful.

    I mentioned they could be losing support to Reform. How? Take your average disgruntled voter somewhere in the Red Wall who thinks the country's going to the dogs and the Tories deserve a kicking. A year or 6 months ago they might have argued that the country's going to the dogs because inflation is rampant, nobody's getting a decent pay rise, the roads are full of pot holes and it takes 6 months to get seen on the NHS. Now they might be saying the country's going to the dogs because the government has failed to stop the boats or control immigration. Before the obvious place to move your vote would be Labour. Now perhaps that's Reform.

    Once a voter has shifted to Reform is it possible the Tories could then win them back rather than them slipping back to Labour? Possibly, if they can then make the next election about cultural issues rather than the pound in your pocket.

    All this seasoned with just a touch of Labour not seeming to be any different on economic or public spending policy now.

    I would say Labour needs the political weather to move back on to economy and (particularly) crumbling public services, and it needs to offer something for people to grab on to in this respect.

    How will this benefit them ? They have no policies on the economy. Bar a bit of spin from Reeves all they have is saying the tories are crap. Voters spell a rat.
  • Out of interest, why does the ERG still exist? I thought its only purpose was to investigate and expose the horrors of Britain's EU membership.

    To look into the terrible dangers of rejoining, which could put the current tremendous success and prosperity of our great and independent nation in jeopardy.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,041
    edited December 2023
    Tusk finally sees off the old Polish government.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67681940
    Donald Tusk is set to become Poland's prime minister after current leader Mateusz Morawiecki lost a key vote in the country's parliament on Monday.
    Mr Morawiecki's populist Law and Justice (PiS) party failed to win a majority in October's elections.
    President Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally, nonetheless nominated Mr Morawiecki to lead the government.
    His failure to win a vote of confidence paves the way for Mr Tusk to become PM.
    In all, 190 MPs voted for Mr Morawiecki's government, compared with 266 against.
    October's elections saw a coalition led by Mr Tusk win a majority of seats in the Sejm, the country's parliament, with a record turnout of more than 70%.
    The grouping comprises three parties, Mr Tusk's Civic Coalition (KO), the Third Way and the Left.
    Mr Morawiecki's ruling PiS emerged as the single biggest party after the election, but other parties refused to work alongside it and it was not able to form a majority in parliament.
    Mr Duda's decision to nominate Mr Morawiecki to lead the country meant that the formation of the new government was delayed for several weeks...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,880
    Sean_F said:

    TimS said:

    There does seem to be a discernible medium term trend downwards in Labour VI, even as Tory support bounces around the mid to high 20s. The absolute gaps remain big but the peaks of Labour support are much lower than they were. What is causing that?

    I don't buy that it's the "not sealed the deal" phenomenon. Labour has as many (or as few) well known policies now as it had a year ago when it was touching 50% in the polls. And I can't see it being to do with Starmer support for Israel and apparent prevarication over Gaza. That's surely only an issue for a small minority of the Left, and we would expect to see Green VI rising if this were really a big driver.

    I do wonder if it's actually a measure of some (very limited) success by the conservatives in getting bread and butter issues off the table and moving the news agenda back on to culture war and immigration. It might not be helping the Tories massively given all the internal chaos, but it's not notably harming their support either. Whereas for Labour I wonder if it's unhelpful.

    I mentioned they could be losing support to Reform. How? Take your average disgruntled voter somewhere in the Red Wall who thinks the country's going to the dogs and the Tories deserve a kicking. A year or 6 months ago they might have argued that the country's going to the dogs because inflation is rampant, nobody's getting a decent pay rise, the roads are full of pot holes and it takes 6 months to get seen on the NHS. Now they might be saying the country's going to the dogs because the government has failed to stop the boats or control immigration. Before the obvious place to move your vote would be Labour. Now perhaps that's Reform.

    Once a voter has shifted to Reform is it possible the Tories could then win them back rather than them slipping back to Labour? Possibly, if they can then make the next election about cultural issues rather than the pound in your pocket.

    All this seasoned with just a touch of Labour not seeming to be any different on economic or public spending policy now.

    I would say Labour needs the political weather to move back on to economy and (particularly) crumbling public services, and it needs to offer something for people to grab on to in this respect.

    It could be somewhat similar to the months leading up to June 2010, when Conservative support began to slip.

    Putting in Labour 37%, to 30% Conservative still gives Labour a majority of 50, because the Lib Dems only win a third of the seats they got in 2010.
    37-30 is quite plausible...

    However the next 33% has to go somewhere. If we give 4 percentage points to the SNP (which may be generous), that leaves a staggering 29% to split between Reform, the LibDems, Green and Other.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,803
    BREAKING: Labour lead falls to 11% (-4)

    🟥 LAB 40% (-2)
    🟦 CON 29% (+2)
    🟧 LD 11% (-2)
    🟩 GRN 7% (+1)
    🟪 REF 7% (+1)
    🟨 SNP 3% (=)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 8-11 December (+/- vs 4 December)

    SKS FANS PLEASE EXPLAIN
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,744
    edited December 2023

    Yet one more thing to worry about . . .

    NYT (via Seattle Times) - Once they were pets. Now giant goldfish are menacing the Great Lakes

    Inside a fishbowl, the goldfish — a species of carp native to East Asia, bred for aesthetic delight and traditionally believed to bring good fortune — is hardly more than home décor. Usually just a few inches long, it is among the easiest of pets to keep.

    But released into the wild, the seemingly humble goldfish, freed from glass boundaries and no longer limited to meager meals of flakes, can grow to monstrous proportions. They can even kill off native marine wildlife and help destroy fragile and economically valuable ecosystems.

    “They can eat anything and everything,” said Christine Boston, an aquatic research biologist with Fisheries and Oceans Canada.

    Over the past several years, Boston and her colleagues have been tracking invasive goldfish in Hamilton Harbour, which is on the western tip of Lake Ontario, about 35 miles southwest of Toronto. The bay has been decimated by industrial and urban development as well as by invasive species — making it among the most environmentally degraded areas of the Great Lakes.

    Their study, published last month in the Journal of Great Lakes Research, could help pinpoint goldfish populations for culling, said Boston, who is the lead author. “We found out where they are before they start spawning,” she said. “That’s a good opportunity to get rid of them.” . . .

    Goldfish were first spotted in Hamilton Harbour in the 1960s, but largely died off in the 1970s because of industrial contamination. In the early 2000s, their population appeared to recover. Goldfish can tolerate a wide range of water temperatures, reach sexual maturation quickly, and can eat nearly anything, including algae, aquatic plants, eggs and invertebrates, Boston said.

    Their football-shaped bodies can swell to a size that makes them too large a meal for predators — up to about 16 inches long. “A fish would have to have a really big mouth to eat it,” she said.

    The feral goldfish are also destructive, uprooting and consuming plants that are home to native species. They help spawn harmful algal blooms by consuming the algae and expelling nutrients that promote its growth, Boston said, creating conditions that are intolerable to native fish. . . .

    Climate change may play a role, because of the goldfish’s capacity to adapt to warming and poorly oxygenated waters, he added.

    “There are literally millions of goldfish in the Great Lakes, if not tens of millions,” Mandrak said.

    The problem is not unique to Canada [or the United States]. In Australia, a handful of unwanted pet goldfish and their offspring took over a river in the country’s southwest. Feral goldfish have flooded waterways in the United Kingdom, and, in Burnsville, Minnesota, the discovery of football-size creatures in a lake in 2021 led officials to beg their constituents: “Please don’t release your pet goldfish into ponds and lakes!” . . . .

    You guys really know how to screw up an eco system. Silver Carp in the Mississippi, Burma pythons in Florida. I blame the Irish send them all home.
  • TimS said:

    There does seem to be a discernible medium term trend downwards in Labour VI, even as Tory support bounces around the mid to high 20s. The absolute gaps remain big but the peaks of Labour support are much lower than they were. What is causing that?

    I don't buy that it's the "not sealed the deal" phenomenon. Labour has as many (or as few) well known policies now as it had a year ago when it was touching 50% in the polls. And I can't see it being to do with Starmer support for Israel and apparent prevarication over Gaza. That's surely only an issue for a small minority of the Left, and we would expect to see Green VI rising if this were really a big driver.

    I do wonder if it's actually a measure of some (very limited) success by the conservatives in getting bread and butter issues off the table and moving the news agenda back on to culture war and immigration. It might not be helping the Tories massively given all the internal chaos, but it's not notably harming their support either. Whereas for Labour I wonder if it's unhelpful.

    I mentioned they could be losing support to Reform. How? Take your average disgruntled voter somewhere in the Red Wall who thinks the country's going to the dogs and the Tories deserve a kicking. A year or 6 months ago they might have argued that the country's going to the dogs because inflation is rampant, nobody's getting a decent pay rise, the roads are full of pot holes and it takes 6 months to get seen on the NHS. Now they might be saying the country's going to the dogs because the government has failed to stop the boats or control immigration. Before the obvious place to move your vote would be Labour. Now perhaps that's Reform.

    Once a voter has shifted to Reform is it possible the Tories could then win them back rather than them slipping back to Labour? Possibly, if they can then make the next election about cultural issues rather than the pound in your pocket.

    All this seasoned with just a touch of Labour not seeming to be any different on economic or public spending policy now.

    I would say Labour needs the political weather to move back on to economy and (particularly) crumbling public services, and it needs to offer something for people to grab on to in this respect.

    Possibly, just possibly, we are starting to see the beginnings of some swingback, as minds concentrate before the next GE.

    No, I don’t quite know how someone is looking at the current Tory Party and is convinced, but there you go.
  • rcs1000 said:

    BREAKING: Labour lead falls to 11% (-4)

    🟥 LAB 40% (-2)
    🟦 CON 29% (+2)
    🟧 LD 11% (-2)
    🟩 GRN 7% (+1)
    🟪 REF 7% (+1)
    🟨 SNP 3% (=)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 8-11 December (+/- vs 4 December)

    SKS FANS PLEASE EXPLAIN

    BJO on election night:

    "Labour majority of only 150. SKS fans please explain."
    It is entirely possible that Starmer’s majority will be larger than the total number of MPs Labour won in 2019.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,075

    BREAKING: Labour lead falls to 11% (-4)

    🟥 LAB 40% (-2)
    🟦 CON 29% (+2)
    🟧 LD 11% (-2)
    🟩 GRN 7% (+1)
    🟪 REF 7% (+1)
    🟨 SNP 3% (=)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 8-11 December (+/- vs 4 December)

    SKS FANS PLEASE EXPLAIN

    You are pathetic
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,803
    rcs1000 said:

    BREAKING: Labour lead falls to 11% (-4)

    🟥 LAB 40% (-2)
    🟦 CON 29% (+2)
    🟧 LD 11% (-2)
    🟩 GRN 7% (+1)
    🟪 REF 7% (+1)
    🟨 SNP 3% (=)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 8-11 December (+/- vs 4 December)

    SKS FANS PLEASE EXPLAIN

    BJO on election night:

    "Labour majority of only 150. SKS fans please explain."
    Would you like a Charity Bet Robert I go for the under 150 Majority!

    I forecast the range as NOM to Lab Maj of 50 BTW
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    TimS said:

    There does seem to be a discernible medium term trend downwards in Labour VI, even as Tory support bounces around the mid to high 20s. The absolute gaps remain big but the peaks of Labour support are much lower than they were. What is causing that?

    I don't buy that it's the "not sealed the deal" phenomenon. Labour has as many (or as few) well known policies now as it had a year ago when it was touching 50% in the polls. And I can't see it being to do with Starmer support for Israel and apparent prevarication over Gaza. That's surely only an issue for a small minority of the Left, and we would expect to see Green VI rising if this were really a big driver.

    I do wonder if it's actually a measure of some (very limited) success by the conservatives in getting bread and butter issues off the table and moving the news agenda back on to culture war and immigration. It might not be helping the Tories massively given all the internal chaos, but it's not notably harming their support either. Whereas for Labour I wonder if it's unhelpful.

    I mentioned they could be losing support to Reform. How? Take your average disgruntled voter somewhere in the Red Wall who thinks the country's going to the dogs and the Tories deserve a kicking. A year or 6 months ago they might have argued that the country's going to the dogs because inflation is rampant, nobody's getting a decent pay rise, the roads are full of pot holes and it takes 6 months to get seen on the NHS. Now they might be saying the country's going to the dogs because the government has failed to stop the boats or control immigration. Before the obvious place to move your vote would be Labour. Now perhaps that's Reform.

    Once a voter has shifted to Reform is it possible the Tories could then win them back rather than them slipping back to Labour? Possibly, if they can then make the next election about cultural issues rather than the pound in your pocket.

    All this seasoned with just a touch of Labour not seeming to be any different on economic or public spending policy now.

    I would say Labour needs the political weather to move back on to economy and (particularly) crumbling public services, and it needs to offer something for people to grab on to in this respect.

    It could be somewhat similar to the months leading up to June 2010, when Conservative support began to slip.

    Putting in Labour 37%, to 30% Conservative still gives Labour a majority of 50, because the Lib Dems only win a third of the seats they got in 2010.
    37-30 is quite plausible...

    However the next 33% has to go somewhere. If we give 4 percentage points to the SNP (which may be generous), that leaves a staggering 29% to split between Reform, the LibDems, Green and Other.
    That would reflect the public not much liking either alternative.

    That said, I suspect if could be more like 39/32, with both Reform and Greens going to Conservative and Labour respectively.

    The electorate has been volatile since 2010, with Con/Lab getting 67% in 2010, 70% in 2015, 83% in 2017 and 78% in 2019, but likely dropping back in this coming election.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,803
    Deltapoll
    @DeltapollUK
    Net approval for
    @Keir_Starmer
    falls by thirteen percentage points since our last poll, while net approval for
    @RishiSunak
    is up by three points.

    SKS FANS Please explain
  • Deltapoll
    @DeltapollUK
    Net approval for
    @Keir_Starmer
    falls by thirteen percentage points since our last poll, while net approval for
    @RishiSunak
    is up by three points.

    SKS FANS Please explain

    One in twenty polls is an outlier.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,075
    That will be a devastating blow after the massive majority Corbyn achieved. Devastating.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,266
    edited December 2023

    TimS said:

    There does seem to be a discernible medium term trend downwards in Labour VI, even as Tory support bounces around the mid to high 20s. The absolute gaps remain big but the peaks of Labour support are much lower than they were. What is causing that?

    I don't buy that it's the "not sealed the deal" phenomenon. Labour has as many (or as few) well known policies now as it had a year ago when it was touching 50% in the polls. And I can't see it being to do with Starmer support for Israel and apparent prevarication over Gaza. That's surely only an issue for a small minority of the Left, and we would expect to see Green VI rising if this were really a big driver.

    I do wonder if it's actually a measure of some (very limited) success by the conservatives in getting bread and butter issues off the table and moving the news agenda back on to culture war and immigration. It might not be helping the Tories massively given all the internal chaos, but it's not notably harming their support either. Whereas for Labour I wonder if it's unhelpful.

    I mentioned they could be losing support to Reform. How? Take your average disgruntled voter somewhere in the Red Wall who thinks the country's going to the dogs and the Tories deserve a kicking. A year or 6 months ago they might have argued that the country's going to the dogs because inflation is rampant, nobody's getting a decent pay rise, the roads are full of pot holes and it takes 6 months to get seen on the NHS. Now they might be saying the country's going to the dogs because the government has failed to stop the boats or control immigration. Before the obvious place to move your vote would be Labour. Now perhaps that's Reform.

    Once a voter has shifted to Reform is it possible the Tories could then win them back rather than them slipping back to Labour? Possibly, if they can then make the next election about cultural issues rather than the pound in your pocket.

    All this seasoned with just a touch of Labour not seeming to be any different on economic or public spending policy now.

    I would say Labour needs the political weather to move back on to economy and (particularly) crumbling public services, and it needs to offer something for people to grab on to in this respect.

    Possibly, just possibly, we are starting to see the beginnings of some swingback, as minds concentrate before the next GE.

    No, I don’t quite know how someone is looking at the current Tory Party and is convinced, but there you go.
    At this stage of the election cycle I wouldn't be inclined to ponder it too much. Labour maintains a strong lead, which is what you would expect. The Public aren't really thinking GE and will not be doing so for a while. Most have much better things to think about.

    Labour needn't worry too much about a bit of 'swingback'. It is difficult to sustain leads of 20+ points without some major scandal or bit of help from the opposition. They have enough ammo to be going into the campaign, when it starts, and are unlikely to expend it now when it is not needed.

    Patience is a virtue in this scenario, and Starmer seems to have plenty of that.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,744
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    TimS said:

    There does seem to be a discernible medium term trend downwards in Labour VI, even as Tory support bounces around the mid to high 20s. The absolute gaps remain big but the peaks of Labour support are much lower than they were. What is causing that?

    I don't buy that it's the "not sealed the deal" phenomenon. Labour has as many (or as few) well known policies now as it had a year ago when it was touching 50% in the polls. And I can't see it being to do with Starmer support for Israel and apparent prevarication over Gaza. That's surely only an issue for a small minority of the Left, and we would expect to see Green VI rising if this were really a big driver.

    I do wonder if it's actually a measure of some (very limited) success by the conservatives in getting bread and butter issues off the table and moving the news agenda back on to culture war and immigration. It might not be helping the Tories massively given all the internal chaos, but it's not notably harming their support either. Whereas for Labour I wonder if it's unhelpful.

    I mentioned they could be losing support to Reform. How? Take your average disgruntled voter somewhere in the Red Wall who thinks the country's going to the dogs and the Tories deserve a kicking. A year or 6 months ago they might have argued that the country's going to the dogs because inflation is rampant, nobody's getting a decent pay rise, the roads are full of pot holes and it takes 6 months to get seen on the NHS. Now they might be saying the country's going to the dogs because the government has failed to stop the boats or control immigration. Before the obvious place to move your vote would be Labour. Now perhaps that's Reform.

    Once a voter has shifted to Reform is it possible the Tories could then win them back rather than them slipping back to Labour? Possibly, if they can then make the next election about cultural issues rather than the pound in your pocket.

    All this seasoned with just a touch of Labour not seeming to be any different on economic or public spending policy now.

    I would say Labour needs the political weather to move back on to economy and (particularly) crumbling public services, and it needs to offer something for people to grab on to in this respect.

    It could be somewhat similar to the months leading up to June 2010, when Conservative support began to slip.

    Putting in Labour 37%, to 30% Conservative still gives Labour a majority of 50, because the Lib Dems only win a third of the seats they got in 2010.
    37-30 is quite plausible...

    However the next 33% has to go somewhere. If we give 4 percentage points to the SNP (which may be generous), that leaves a staggering 29% to split between Reform, the LibDems, Green and Other.
    That would reflect the public not much liking either alternative.

    That said, I suspect if could be more like 39/32, with both Reform and Greens going to Conservative and Labour respectively.

    The electorate has been volatile since 2010, with Con/Lab getting 67% in 2010, 70% in 2015, 83% in 2017 and 78% in 2019, but likely dropping back in this coming election.
    For chunks of the electorate SKS is simply more of the same policies weve had since 1997 irrespective of who is in office. If you were a loser in the globalisation push why would you vote for more ?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870

    Dave bounce!

    🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨

    Labour lead narrows to eleven percentage points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
    Con 29% (+2)
    Lab 40% (-2)
    Lib Dem 11% (-2)
    Other 21% (+2)
    Fieldwork: 8th-11th December 2023
    Sample: 1,005 GB adults
    (Changes from 1st-4th November 2023)

    https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1734233103000834075

    The only bounce we'll see from Dave is if he falls out of his Cotswold treehouse.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,075

    BREAKING: Labour lead falls to 11% (-4)

    🟥 LAB 40% (-2)
    🟦 CON 29% (+2)
    🟧 LD 11% (-2)
    🟩 GRN 7% (+1)
    🟪 REF 7% (+1)
    🟨 SNP 3% (=)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 8-11 December (+/- vs 4 December)

    SKS FANS PLEASE EXPLAIN

    You can't even get the polling company right, you halfwit. This was Deltapoll, not YouGov, posted on here earlier.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,803

    rcs1000 said:

    BREAKING: Labour lead falls to 11% (-4)

    🟥 LAB 40% (-2)
    🟦 CON 29% (+2)
    🟧 LD 11% (-2)
    🟩 GRN 7% (+1)
    🟪 REF 7% (+1)
    🟨 SNP 3% (=)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 8-11 December (+/- vs 4 December)

    SKS FANS PLEASE EXPLAIN

    BJO on election night:

    "Labour majority of only 150. SKS fans please explain."
    It is entirely possible that Starmer’s majority will be larger than the total number of MPs Labour won in 2019.
    Its entirely possible the man who said he would never vote Lab is such an SKS FAN he votes LAB

    Thats how Tory SKS is
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,430

    TimS said:

    There does seem to be a discernible medium term trend downwards in Labour VI, even as Tory support bounces around the mid to high 20s. The absolute gaps remain big but the peaks of Labour support are much lower than they were. What is causing that?

    I don't buy that it's the "not sealed the deal" phenomenon. Labour has as many (or as few) well known policies now as it had a year ago when it was touching 50% in the polls. And I can't see it being to do with Starmer support for Israel and apparent prevarication over Gaza. That's surely only an issue for a small minority of the Left, and we would expect to see Green VI rising if this were really a big driver.

    I do wonder if it's actually a measure of some (very limited) success by the conservatives in getting bread and butter issues off the table and moving the news agenda back on to culture war and immigration. It might not be helping the Tories massively given all the internal chaos, but it's not notably harming their support either. Whereas for Labour I wonder if it's unhelpful.

    I mentioned they could be losing support to Reform. How? Take your average disgruntled voter somewhere in the Red Wall who thinks the country's going to the dogs and the Tories deserve a kicking. A year or 6 months ago they might have argued that the country's going to the dogs because inflation is rampant, nobody's getting a decent pay rise, the roads are full of pot holes and it takes 6 months to get seen on the NHS. Now they might be saying the country's going to the dogs because the government has failed to stop the boats or control immigration. Before the obvious place to move your vote would be Labour. Now perhaps that's Reform.

    Once a voter has shifted to Reform is it possible the Tories could then win them back rather than them slipping back to Labour? Possibly, if they can then make the next election about cultural issues rather than the pound in your pocket.

    All this seasoned with just a touch of Labour not seeming to be any different on economic or public spending policy now.

    I would say Labour needs the political weather to move back on to economy and (particularly) crumbling public services, and it needs to offer something for people to grab on to in this respect.

    Possibly, just possibly, we are starting to see the beginnings of some swingback, as minds concentrate before the next GE.

    No, I don’t quite know how someone is looking at the current Tory Party and is convinced, but there you go.
    I believe a psephologist once said look at the absolute party figures rather than the lead.

    As @TimS mentions Labour appears to be falling at the moment as opposed to Conservatives gaining (Deltapoll is just one polling company out of many). Let's see what Redfield & Wilton publish at 5pm today.

    That of course benefits the Conservatives indirectly but the impact on seat distributions is different, particularly if the Lib Dems are on the rise.
  • Alister Jack confirms he is minded to seek costs from the Scottish Government following the Court of Session judgment on Section 35.

    https://x.com/JournoStephen/status/1734242038999142653?s=20
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,803
    DougSeal said:

    BREAKING: Labour lead falls to 11% (-4)

    🟥 LAB 40% (-2)
    🟦 CON 29% (+2)
    🟧 LD 11% (-2)
    🟩 GRN 7% (+1)
    🟪 REF 7% (+1)
    🟨 SNP 3% (=)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 8-11 December (+/- vs 4 December)

    SKS FANS PLEASE EXPLAIN

    You are pathetic
    Is that an explanation

    Perhaps you can now explain why SKS ratings have fallen from +2 to -11 in a week

    One train journey and the whole country are suddenly BJO Fans
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,147
    edited December 2023

    rcs1000 said:

    BREAKING: Labour lead falls to 11% (-4)

    🟥 LAB 40% (-2)
    🟦 CON 29% (+2)
    🟧 LD 11% (-2)
    🟩 GRN 7% (+1)
    🟪 REF 7% (+1)
    🟨 SNP 3% (=)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 8-11 December (+/- vs 4 December)

    SKS FANS PLEASE EXPLAIN

    BJO on election night:

    "Labour majority of only 150. SKS fans please explain."
    It is entirely possible that Starmer’s majority will be larger than the total number of MPs Labour won in 2019.
    Its entirely possible the man who said he would never vote Lab is such an SKS FAN he votes LAB

    Thats how Tory SKS is
    I am back on the Tory wagon since the second coming of Dave.
  • rcs1000 said:

    BREAKING: Labour lead falls to 11% (-4)

    🟥 LAB 40% (-2)
    🟦 CON 29% (+2)
    🟧 LD 11% (-2)
    🟩 GRN 7% (+1)
    🟪 REF 7% (+1)
    🟨 SNP 3% (=)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 8-11 December (+/- vs 4 December)

    SKS FANS PLEASE EXPLAIN

    BJO on election night:

    "Labour majority of only 150. SKS fans please explain."
    It is entirely possible that Starmer’s majority will be larger than the total number of MPs Labour won in 2019.
    Its entirely possible the man who said he would never vote Lab is such an SKS FAN he votes LAB

    Thats how Tory SKS is
    I am back on the Tory wagon since the second coming of Dave.
    Was/is not David Cameron a BIG believer in austerity? For others that is, NOT for himself.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,803
    DougSeal said:

    BREAKING: Labour lead falls to 11% (-4)

    🟥 LAB 40% (-2)
    🟦 CON 29% (+2)
    🟧 LD 11% (-2)
    🟩 GRN 7% (+1)
    🟪 REF 7% (+1)
    🟨 SNP 3% (=)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 8-11 December (+/- vs 4 December)

    SKS FANS PLEASE EXPLAIN

    You can't even get the polling company right, you halfwit. This was Deltapoll, not YouGov, posted on here earlier.
    Yet you are still unable to explain

    Despite you not being a half wit
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,001
    viewcode said:

    kinabalu said:

    I still think Oct.

    When May was PM I was insistent she would not go to the polls up to and including Monday, then Tues she came out with the lectern. I have got no idea and neither does anybody else. We're just guessing.
    Maybe Rishi doesn't even know. He does seem all at sea. But me, fwiw, October.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,045

    Plausibly, yes.

    I am struggling to see the next step for the government if this bill fails or is withdrawn.

    After this week politics will be suspended for Christmas. In that time Rishi has a choice, it seems to me:

    1. If he does nothing, I think it likely he’ll face a VONC in the new year. He probably won’t lose that vote, but it will leave him completely hamstrung (even more than now). I think even if he wins he may have to stand down, and then 3 applies.

    2. He calls a GE early doors January to take place mid feb 2024. He would need to make this a position of taking a hard line on immigration and beefing up the Rwanda policy (in short, I find it difficult how he couldn’t go into that election pledging to leave the ECHR).

    3. He resigns. I think this is much more possible than some seem to think. He’s going to lose the election, his government is falling apart, and he can’t break the deadlock. Why not just throw in the towel and call it quits? Let the Tory Party battle it out over policy, get a new leader and let that leader fight the GE?

    4 Do a John Major with a back me or sack me contest?
    5 Do an Arthur Balfour 1905 resignation and put Starmer in before a general election?
    Because that really, *really* worked for Balfour:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1906_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Including personally:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manchester_East_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_1900s
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,309

    TimS said:

    There does seem to be a discernible medium term trend downwards in Labour VI, even as Tory support bounces around the mid to high 20s. The absolute gaps remain big but the peaks of Labour support are much lower than they were. What is causing that?

    I don't buy that it's the "not sealed the deal" phenomenon. Labour has as many (or as few) well known policies now as it had a year ago when it was touching 50% in the polls. And I can't see it being to do with Starmer support for Israel and apparent prevarication over Gaza. That's surely only an issue for a small minority of the Left, and we would expect to see Green VI rising if this were really a big driver.

    I do wonder if it's actually a measure of some (very limited) success by the conservatives in getting bread and butter issues off the table and moving the news agenda back on to culture war and immigration. It might not be helping the Tories massively given all the internal chaos, but it's not notably harming their support either. Whereas for Labour I wonder if it's unhelpful.

    I mentioned they could be losing support to Reform. How? Take your average disgruntled voter somewhere in the Red Wall who thinks the country's going to the dogs and the Tories deserve a kicking. A year or 6 months ago they might have argued that the country's going to the dogs because inflation is rampant, nobody's getting a decent pay rise, the roads are full of pot holes and it takes 6 months to get seen on the NHS. Now they might be saying the country's going to the dogs because the government has failed to stop the boats or control immigration. Before the obvious place to move your vote would be Labour. Now perhaps that's Reform.

    Once a voter has shifted to Reform is it possible the Tories could then win them back rather than them slipping back to Labour? Possibly, if they can then make the next election about cultural issues rather than the pound in your pocket.

    All this seasoned with just a touch of Labour not seeming to be any different on economic or public spending policy now.

    I would say Labour needs the political weather to move back on to economy and (particularly) crumbling public services, and it needs to offer something for people to grab on to in this respect.

    How will this benefit them ? They have no policies on the economy. Bar a bit of spin from Reeves all they have is saying the tories are crap. Voters spell a rat.
    You smell a rat, but you’re not their target
    voter. But it will benefit them for one big reason: they are seen as more competent on the economy, better placed to improve public services and better able to turn the country around than the Tories. That’s a very very low bar, but it’s the key bar.

    Make politics a binary choice about the economy and public services and they’ll vote Labour. Make it a binary choice about immigration or human rights and they have a wealth of choices: Refuk, the Greens or Lib Dems and so on,
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,803
    DougSeal said:

    That will be a devastating blow after the massive majority Corbyn achieved. Devastating.
    Centrist mentality that a fall from 150 Maj last week to 46 this week is a triumph for SKS

    And still cant even attempt an answer to why a fall of 13% in SKS's ratings might have come about

    Quarter Wit!
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,075

    DougSeal said:

    BREAKING: Labour lead falls to 11% (-4)

    🟥 LAB 40% (-2)
    🟦 CON 29% (+2)
    🟧 LD 11% (-2)
    🟩 GRN 7% (+1)
    🟪 REF 7% (+1)
    🟨 SNP 3% (=)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 8-11 December (+/- vs 4 December)

    SKS FANS PLEASE EXPLAIN

    You are pathetic
    Is that an explanation

    Perhaps you can now explain why SKS ratings have fallen from +2 to -11 in a week

    One train journey and the whole country are suddenly BJO Fans
    You're pathetic because you credulously repost a Tweet from "Stats for Lefties" that mistakes a poll from Deltapoll (whose last three Labour leads are 13, 15, 11%) with one from YouGov, thereby suggesting a 12 point swing in a week, rather then one that is within the usual bounds of this pollster. For context, Deltapoll last had Labour 11% ahead between 9-12 June, a week later they were up to 19% ahead with the same pollster.

    You're pathetic because you cream your pants when one poll, one solitary poll, cements your confirmation bias, while ignoring the actual latest YouGov which has Labour's lead at 23% and any others that contradict it.

    https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Copy_of_TheTimes_VI_231207_W.pdf

    You're pathetic because you criticise Starmer for falling against standards he himself set. Corbyn would have killed for these numbers.

    You're pathetic because you don't support Labour. You support the Green Tories.

    Finally, you're pathetic because you let your own deluded visions of ideological purity stand in the way of any semblance of common sense, preferring all should burn rather than you be proved wrong.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,442

    On topic, I think recent events have increased the chances of May rather than Autumn.

    There is every prospect of this Bill running into the sand and, if he cannot find a compromise between wings of his party on what is a key bit of policy for him, that's really difficult in terms of running the Government on towards five years.

    However, I don't think Sunak will allow the Government will "fall" over it causing a February election. More likely, he will back down, take the Bill away for "fine tuning", muddle through to the Budget, and call a May election then.

    I think recent events have increased the chances of May rather thank Sunak (to lead the Tories into an election).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,045
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    BREAKING: Labour lead falls to 11% (-4)

    🟥 LAB 40% (-2)
    🟦 CON 29% (+2)
    🟧 LD 11% (-2)
    🟩 GRN 7% (+1)
    🟪 REF 7% (+1)
    🟨 SNP 3% (=)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 8-11 December (+/- vs 4 December)

    SKS FANS PLEASE EXPLAIN

    You are pathetic
    Is that an explanation

    Perhaps you can now explain why SKS ratings have fallen from +2 to -11 in a week

    One train journey and the whole country are suddenly BJO Fans
    You're pathetic because you credulously repost a Tweet from "Stats for Lefties" that mistakes a poll from Deltapoll (whose last three Labour leads are 13, 15, 11%) with one from YouGov, thereby suggesting a 12 point swing in a week, rather then one that is within the usual bounds of this pollster. For context, Deltapoll last had Labour 11% ahead between 9-12 June, a week later they were up to 19% ahead with the same pollster.

    You're pathetic because you cream your pants when one poll, one solitary poll, cements your confirmation bias, while ignoring the actual latest YouGov which has Labour's lead at 23% and any others that contradict it.

    https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Copy_of_TheTimes_VI_231207_W.pdf

    You're pathetic because you criticise Starmer for falling against standards he himself set. Corbyn would have killed for these numbers.

    You're pathetic because you don't support Labour. You support the Green Tories.

    Finally, you're pathetic because you let your own deluded visions of ideological purity stand in the way of any semblance of common sense, preferring all should burn rather than you be proved wrong.
    Doug, I'm going to take a wild guess here, but:

    Do you consider our resident apologist for the Jezaster to be, well, pathetic?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,213

    DougSeal said:

    BREAKING: Labour lead falls to 11% (-4)

    🟥 LAB 40% (-2)
    🟦 CON 29% (+2)
    🟧 LD 11% (-2)
    🟩 GRN 7% (+1)
    🟪 REF 7% (+1)
    🟨 SNP 3% (=)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 8-11 December (+/- vs 4 December)

    SKS FANS PLEASE EXPLAIN

    You are pathetic
    Is that an explanation

    Perhaps you can now explain why SKS ratings have fallen from +2 to -11 in a week

    One train journey and the whole country are suddenly BJO Fans
    Do you put it down to his Thatchery statements? I'm not sure that has much traction outside politically-minded circles. Immigration has been the main news theme politically, perhaps this does play to Tory strengths despite their seeming disunity over Rwanda.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,880

    DougSeal said:

    That will be a devastating blow after the massive majority Corbyn achieved. Devastating.
    Centrist mentality that a fall from 150 Maj last week to 46 this week is a triumph for SKS

    And still cant even attempt an answer to why a fall of 13% in SKS's ratings might have come about

    Quarter Wit!
    Ah yes, I remember you announcing what a triumph last week's numbers were for SKS.

    Imagine the following scenario:

    January 1 poll:
    Lab 45 Con 30
    BJO... silent

    February 1 poll:
    Lab 40 Con 30
    BJO... Labour poll share falls 5%! SKS fans please explain

    March 1 poll
    Lab 45 Con 30
    BJO... silent

    etc

    Does that sound like a plausible scenario?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,001

    Alister Jack confirms he is minded to seek costs from the Scottish Government following the Court of Session judgment on Section 35.

    https://x.com/JournoStephen/status/1734242038999142653?s=20

    Does he think he's won a libel case or something?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,800

    Alister Jack confirms he is minded to seek costs from the Scottish Government following the Court of Session judgment on Section 35.

    https://x.com/JournoStephen/status/1734242038999142653?s=20

    When will Useless get a backbone and tell Jack to F*** right off and take all MP's out of the cesspit and tell him to also stick his officials up his jacksie to boot and get all UK governemnt officials/staff out of Scotland, they are worse than the KGB.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,045
    I actually feel a bit dirty.

    And I may never live this down.

    But....

    There is a really, really good article on OFSTED - on ConHome...

    https://conservativehome.com/2023/12/11/john-bald-ofsted-has-lost-all-credibility-with-the-profession-it-is-difficult-to-see-a-way-forward/

    It is well worth two minutes of your time to read it.
  • On topic, I agree.

    Sunak won't call an election unless he thinks he can win or he thinks he's run out of road. I still reckon mid-Nov is his preferred option.

    A new Tory leader may call a snap election but there won't be one of them until late February at the earliest, pointing to an April poll. Though May is more likely in those circumstances.

    You simply don't go to the country when 15-20 points behind in the polls, on the off-chance that you might be ousted. And you can't go once you have been ousted.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,848

    DougSeal said:

    BREAKING: Labour lead falls to 11% (-4)

    🟥 LAB 40% (-2)
    🟦 CON 29% (+2)
    🟧 LD 11% (-2)
    🟩 GRN 7% (+1)
    🟪 REF 7% (+1)
    🟨 SNP 3% (=)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 8-11 December (+/- vs 4 December)

    SKS FANS PLEASE EXPLAIN

    You are pathetic
    Is that an explanation

    Perhaps you can now explain why SKS ratings have fallen from +2 to -11 in a week

    One train journey and the whole country are suddenly BJO Fans
    Do you put it down to his Thatchery statements? I'm not sure that has much traction outside politically-minded circles. Immigration has been the main news theme politically, perhaps this does play to Tory strengths despite their seeming disunity over Rwanda.
    Politically minded circles are probably over represented in polls
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,001

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    TimS said:

    There does seem to be a discernible medium term trend downwards in Labour VI, even as Tory support bounces around the mid to high 20s. The absolute gaps remain big but the peaks of Labour support are much lower than they were. What is causing that?

    I don't buy that it's the "not sealed the deal" phenomenon. Labour has as many (or as few) well known policies now as it had a year ago when it was touching 50% in the polls. And I can't see it being to do with Starmer support for Israel and apparent prevarication over Gaza. That's surely only an issue for a small minority of the Left, and we would expect to see Green VI rising if this were really a big driver.

    I do wonder if it's actually a measure of some (very limited) success by the conservatives in getting bread and butter issues off the table and moving the news agenda back on to culture war and immigration. It might not be helping the Tories massively given all the internal chaos, but it's not notably harming their support either. Whereas for Labour I wonder if it's unhelpful.

    I mentioned they could be losing support to Reform. How? Take your average disgruntled voter somewhere in the Red Wall who thinks the country's going to the dogs and the Tories deserve a kicking. A year or 6 months ago they might have argued that the country's going to the dogs because inflation is rampant, nobody's getting a decent pay rise, the roads are full of pot holes and it takes 6 months to get seen on the NHS. Now they might be saying the country's going to the dogs because the government has failed to stop the boats or control immigration. Before the obvious place to move your vote would be Labour. Now perhaps that's Reform.

    Once a voter has shifted to Reform is it possible the Tories could then win them back rather than them slipping back to Labour? Possibly, if they can then make the next election about cultural issues rather than the pound in your pocket.

    All this seasoned with just a touch of Labour not seeming to be any different on economic or public spending policy now.

    I would say Labour needs the political weather to move back on to economy and (particularly) crumbling public services, and it needs to offer something for people to grab on to in this respect.

    It could be somewhat similar to the months leading up to June 2010, when Conservative support began to slip.

    Putting in Labour 37%, to 30% Conservative still gives Labour a majority of 50, because the Lib Dems only win a third of the seats they got in 2010.
    37-30 is quite plausible...

    However the next 33% has to go somewhere. If we give 4 percentage points to the SNP (which may be generous), that leaves a staggering 29% to split between Reform, the LibDems, Green and Other.
    That would reflect the public not much liking either alternative.

    That said, I suspect if could be more like 39/32, with both Reform and Greens going to Conservative and Labour respectively.

    The electorate has been volatile since 2010, with Con/Lab getting 67% in 2010, 70% in 2015, 83% in 2017 and 78% in 2019, but likely dropping back in this coming election.
    For chunks of the electorate SKS is simply more of the same policies weve had since 1997 irrespective of who is in office. If you were a loser in the globalisation push why would you vote for more ?
    Globalisation didn't start for the UK in 1997.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,803
    rcs1000 said:

    DougSeal said:

    That will be a devastating blow after the massive majority Corbyn achieved. Devastating.
    Centrist mentality that a fall from 150 Maj last week to 46 this week is a triumph for SKS

    And still cant even attempt an answer to why a fall of 13% in SKS's ratings might have come about

    Quarter Wit!
    Ah yes, I remember you announcing what a triumph last week's numbers were for SKS.

    Imagine the following scenario:

    January 1 poll:
    Lab 45 Con 30
    BJO... silent

    February 1 poll:
    Lab 40 Con 30
    BJO... Labour poll share falls 5%! SKS fans please explain

    March 1 poll
    Lab 45 Con 30
    BJO... silent

    etc

    Does that sound like a plausible scenario?
    GE2024
    LAB 39
    CON 35

    Sounds Plausible

    But Centrists would then claim NOM to LT 50 MAJ was a triumph and SKS Fans would still find reasons not to explain why LAB has underperformed.

    Lab under Burnham would be sailing along at over 50%
  • ydoethur said:

    Plausibly, yes.

    I am struggling to see the next step for the government if this bill fails or is withdrawn.

    After this week politics will be suspended for Christmas. In that time Rishi has a choice, it seems to me:

    1. If he does nothing, I think it likely he’ll face a VONC in the new year. He probably won’t lose that vote, but it will leave him completely hamstrung (even more than now). I think even if he wins he may have to stand down, and then 3 applies.

    2. He calls a GE early doors January to take place mid feb 2024. He would need to make this a position of taking a hard line on immigration and beefing up the Rwanda policy (in short, I find it difficult how he couldn’t go into that election pledging to leave the ECHR).

    3. He resigns. I think this is much more possible than some seem to think. He’s going to lose the election, his government is falling apart, and he can’t break the deadlock. Why not just throw in the towel and call it quits? Let the Tory Party battle it out over policy, get a new leader and let that leader fight the GE?

    4 Do a John Major with a back me or sack me contest?
    5 Do an Arthur Balfour 1905 resignation and put Starmer in before a general election?
    Because that really, *really* worked for Balfour:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1906_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Including personally:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manchester_East_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_1900s
    I never understood the thinking there?

    "I'll resign, put CB in and he'll make a mess of it without a stable majority. Ha!"

    - slightly later -

    "Oh, he's called an election. I forgot he could do that once he was PM."
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,213
    SKS fans getting very testy about SKS's precipitous plunge from polling grace. :D
  • DougSeal said:

    BREAKING: Labour lead falls to 11% (-4)

    🟥 LAB 40% (-2)
    🟦 CON 29% (+2)
    🟧 LD 11% (-2)
    🟩 GRN 7% (+1)
    🟪 REF 7% (+1)
    🟨 SNP 3% (=)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 8-11 December (+/- vs 4 December)

    SKS FANS PLEASE EXPLAIN

    You can't even get the polling company right, you halfwit. This was Deltapoll, not YouGov, posted on here earlier.
    Yet you are still unable to explain

    Despite you not being a half wit
    For reference, that Lab+11 is a bigger lead in that one poll - and it's pretty much the *smallest* lead Labour has had in the last year - than Corbyn managed in any poll with any firm during the entire tenure of his leadership.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,147
    edited December 2023
    BJO please explain

    Labour leads by 18% nationally, marking two years since the Conservatives last led in our polling.

    Westminster VI (10 Dec):

    Labour 43% (+1)
    Conservative 25% (-1)
    Lib Dem 13% (+1)
    Reform 11% (+1)
    Green 5% (-1)
    SNP 2% (-1)
    Other 1% (+1)

    Changes +/- 3 Dec

    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1734256736670753044?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 2,747
    edited December 2023
    *Deleted* Already posted!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,529

    SKS fans getting very testy about SKS's precipitous plunge from polling grace. :D

    Indeed. Perspicacious predictions of propriety preciptously preferring a perpendicular positioning are posing problems presently.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,917

    On topic, I think recent events have increased the chances of May rather than Autumn.

    There is every prospect of this Bill running into the sand and, if he cannot find a compromise between wings of his party on what is a key bit of policy for him, that's really difficult in terms of running the Government on towards five years.

    However, I don't think Sunak will allow the Government will "fall" over it causing a February election. More likely, he will back down, take the Bill away for "fine tuning", muddle through to the Budget, and call a May election then.

    I think recent events have increased the chances of May rather thank Sunak (to lead the Tories into an election).
    My guess is that swing voters are more likely to be mortgage holders than most voters. Pensioners own outright and tend towards small-c conservatism anywyay; renters (and to an extent leaseholders) this govt lost a long time ago, if they ever had any support at all.

    Mortgagees are more likely to be thirties and forties, young children, squeezed middle. Since most of the country has made its mind up, the voter on the margin is likely to become less likely to vote Conservative as and when their fix ends and their payments go up, which is happening to people all the time.

    If there's a plausible route to interest rates going down before Jan 2025, the Tories will hold out until the bitter end. If not, the sooner they go to the polls the better, because as more and more people's disposable income drops rapidly and suddenly at the end of their fix, the more angry they will become.

    My gut says that a May election in 2024 leads to a comfortable Labour majority of 50-80, waiting any longer will lead to an utter shellacking.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,213
    malcolmg said:

    Alister Jack confirms he is minded to seek costs from the Scottish Government following the Court of Session judgment on Section 35.

    https://x.com/JournoStephen/status/1734242038999142653?s=20

    When will Useless get a backbone and tell Jack to F*** right off and take all MP's out of the cesspit and tell him to also stick his officials up his jacksie to boot and get all UK governemnt officials/staff out of Scotland, they are worse than the KGB.
    If he's going to do that, there are better battlegrounds to choose than the rights of male rapists to dodge mens prison and be incarcerated in a prison full of women.
  • BJO please explain

    Labour leads by 18% nationally, marking two years since the Conservatives last led in our polling.

    Westminster VI (10 Dec):

    Labour 43% (+1)
    Conservative 25% (-1)
    Lib Dem 13% (+1)
    Reform 11% (+1)
    Green 5% (-1)
    SNP 2% (-1)
    Other 1% (+1)

    Changes +/- 3 Dec

    Ruh roh, SKS equalling Blair's best election result there.
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