Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Should we be ready for an early election? – politicalbetting.com

2456

Comments

  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,873
    R&W: 43-25-13
    L
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,543
    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-10-december-2023/

    Labour 43% (+1)
    Conservative 25% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 13% (+1)
    Reform UK 11% (+1)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 2% (-1)
    Other 1% (+1)
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    rcs1000 said:

    DougSeal said:

    That will be a devastating blow after the massive majority Corbyn achieved. Devastating.
    Centrist mentality that a fall from 150 Maj last week to 46 this week is a triumph for SKS

    And still cant even attempt an answer to why a fall of 13% in SKS's ratings might have come about

    Quarter Wit!
    Ah yes, I remember you announcing what a triumph last week's numbers were for SKS.

    Imagine the following scenario:

    January 1 poll:
    Lab 45 Con 30
    BJO... silent

    February 1 poll:
    Lab 40 Con 30
    BJO... Labour poll share falls 5%! SKS fans please explain

    March 1 poll
    Lab 45 Con 30
    BJO... silent

    etc

    Does that sound like a plausible scenario?
    GE2024
    LAB 39
    CON 35

    Sounds Plausible

    But Centrists would then claim NOM to LT 50 MAJ was a triumph and SKS Fans would still find reasons not to explain why LAB has underperformed.

    Lab under Burnham would be sailing along at over 50%
    That performance would make SKS only the second Labour PM born after the end of the First World War and mean he had achieved a bigger swing in terms of seats than at any GE I am aware of.

    Yet this, to you, is "underperforming" against a counterfactual that is, by definition, unfalsifiable. We can't argue against it any more than we can argue against the existence of God in the face of a religious nutter which is, in essence, what you are.
  • You’ve heard of Elf On A Shelf, but have you heard of…


  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    16s
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 40% (-2)
    CON: 29% (+2)
    LDEM: 11% (-2)

    via
    @DeltapollUK
    , 08 - 11 Dec
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,413
    isam said:

    DougSeal said:

    BREAKING: Labour lead falls to 11% (-4)

    🟥 LAB 40% (-2)
    🟦 CON 29% (+2)
    🟧 LD 11% (-2)
    🟩 GRN 7% (+1)
    🟪 REF 7% (+1)
    🟨 SNP 3% (=)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 8-11 December (+/- vs 4 December)

    SKS FANS PLEASE EXPLAIN

    You are pathetic
    Is that an explanation

    Perhaps you can now explain why SKS ratings have fallen from +2 to -11 in a week

    One train journey and the whole country are suddenly BJO Fans
    Do you put it down to his Thatchery statements? I'm not sure that has much traction outside politically-minded circles. Immigration has been the main news theme politically, perhaps this does play to Tory strengths despite their seeming disunity over Rwanda.
    Politically minded circles are probably over represented in polls
    True, but I wouldn't expect Thatcher haters to be tempted by the Tories. Though it could be more circuitous than that.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ...

    rcs1000 said:

    DougSeal said:

    That will be a devastating blow after the massive majority Corbyn achieved. Devastating.
    Centrist mentality that a fall from 150 Maj last week to 46 this week is a triumph for SKS

    And still cant even attempt an answer to why a fall of 13% in SKS's ratings might have come about

    Quarter Wit!
    Ah yes, I remember you announcing what a triumph last week's numbers were for SKS.

    Imagine the following scenario:

    January 1 poll:
    Lab 45 Con 30
    BJO... silent

    February 1 poll:
    Lab 40 Con 30
    BJO... Labour poll share falls 5%! SKS fans please explain

    March 1 poll
    Lab 45 Con 30
    BJO... silent

    etc

    Does that sound like a plausible scenario?
    GE2024
    LAB 39
    CON 35

    Sounds Plausible

    But Centrists would then claim NOM to LT 50 MAJ was a triumph and SKS Fans would still find reasons not to explain why LAB has underperformed.

    Lab under Burnham would be sailing along at over 50%
    They wouldn't because although Starmer is sh*te that gobby Manc reminds everyone why they hate parties led by gobby Mancs.

    Voters are also reminded of why everyone hated New Labour. Burnham was a New Labour turncoat, however you sugar coat his sh*teness he was every inch the RedTory.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    DougSeal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DougSeal said:

    That will be a devastating blow after the massive majority Corbyn achieved. Devastating.
    Centrist mentality that a fall from 150 Maj last week to 46 this week is a triumph for SKS

    And still cant even attempt an answer to why a fall of 13% in SKS's ratings might have come about

    Quarter Wit!
    Ah yes, I remember you announcing what a triumph last week's numbers were for SKS.

    Imagine the following scenario:

    January 1 poll:
    Lab 45 Con 30
    BJO... silent

    February 1 poll:
    Lab 40 Con 30
    BJO... Labour poll share falls 5%! SKS fans please explain

    March 1 poll
    Lab 45 Con 30
    BJO... silent

    etc

    Does that sound like a plausible scenario?
    GE2024
    LAB 39
    CON 35

    Sounds Plausible

    But Centrists would then claim NOM to LT 50 MAJ was a triumph and SKS Fans would still find reasons not to explain why LAB has underperformed.

    Lab under Burnham would be sailing along at over 50%
    That performance would make SKS only the second Labour PM born after the end of the First World War and mean he had achieved a bigger swing in terms of seats than at any GE I am aware of.

    Yet this, to you, is "underperforming" against a counterfactual that is, by definition, unfalsifiable. We can't argue against it any more than we can argue against the existence of God in the face of a religious nutter which is, in essence, what you are.
    Jezzah is the Messiah granted and by comparison SKS is just a very naughty Tory Boy
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    SKS fans getting very testy about SKS's precipitous plunge from polling grace. :D

    No, it is PBers (mainly of a Tory variety) calling out BJO for conflating several polls by different polling organisations. Such bullsh*te should be called out for what it is.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    DougSeal said:

    BREAKING: Labour lead falls to 11% (-4)

    🟥 LAB 40% (-2)
    🟦 CON 29% (+2)
    🟧 LD 11% (-2)
    🟩 GRN 7% (+1)
    🟪 REF 7% (+1)
    🟨 SNP 3% (=)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 8-11 December (+/- vs 4 December)

    SKS FANS PLEASE EXPLAIN

    You are pathetic
    Is that an explanation

    Perhaps you can now explain why SKS ratings have fallen from +2 to -11 in a week

    One train journey and the whole country are suddenly BJO Fans
    Do you put it down to his Thatchery statements? I'm not sure that has much traction outside politically-minded circles. Immigration has been the main news theme politically, perhaps this does play to Tory strengths despite their seeming disunity over Rwanda.
    Politically minded circles are probably over represented in polls
    True, but I wouldn't expect Thatcher haters to be tempted by the Tories. Though it could be more circuitous than that.
    My theory was that the polls have too many people who follow politics and are also prone to changing their answer to what they think sounds clever based on recent events and too few who don’t take much notice & stick with one party regardless
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,413

    SKS fans getting very testy about SKS's precipitous plunge from polling grace. :D

    No, it is PBers (mainly of a Tory variety) calling out BJO for conflating several polls by different polling organisations. Such bullsh*te should be called out for what it is.
    Even if it's fun?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    DougSeal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DougSeal said:

    That will be a devastating blow after the massive majority Corbyn achieved. Devastating.
    Centrist mentality that a fall from 150 Maj last week to 46 this week is a triumph for SKS

    And still cant even attempt an answer to why a fall of 13% in SKS's ratings might have come about

    Quarter Wit!
    Ah yes, I remember you announcing what a triumph last week's numbers were for SKS.

    Imagine the following scenario:

    January 1 poll:
    Lab 45 Con 30
    BJO... silent

    February 1 poll:
    Lab 40 Con 30
    BJO... Labour poll share falls 5%! SKS fans please explain

    March 1 poll
    Lab 45 Con 30
    BJO... silent

    etc

    Does that sound like a plausible scenario?
    GE2024
    LAB 39
    CON 35

    Sounds Plausible

    But Centrists would then claim NOM to LT 50 MAJ was a triumph and SKS Fans would still find reasons not to explain why LAB has underperformed.

    Lab under Burnham would be sailing along at over 50%
    That performance would make SKS only the second Labour PM born after the end of the First World War and mean he had achieved a bigger swing in terms of seats than at any GE I am aware of.

    Yet this, to you, is "underperforming" against a counterfactual that is, by definition, unfalsifiable. We can't argue against it any more than we can argue against the existence of God in the face of a religious nutter which is, in essence, what you are.
    Third. Brown may have been forgettable but he was born in 1951.
  • If a poll comes out that you don't like, just post a poll instead that's already been posted six times and pretend the new one never happened. Genius!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    TimS said:

    There does seem to be a discernible medium term trend downwards in Labour VI, even as Tory support bounces around the mid to high 20s. The absolute gaps remain big but the peaks of Labour support are much lower than they were. What is causing that?

    I don't buy that it's the "not sealed the deal" phenomenon. Labour has as many (or as few) well known policies now as it had a year ago when it was touching 50% in the polls. And I can't see it being to do with Starmer support for Israel and apparent prevarication over Gaza. That's surely only an issue for a small minority of the Left, and we would expect to see Green VI rising if this were really a big driver.

    I do wonder if it's actually a measure of some (very limited) success by the conservatives in getting bread and butter issues off the table and moving the news agenda back on to culture war and immigration. It might not be helping the Tories massively given all the internal chaos, but it's not notably harming their support either. Whereas for Labour I wonder if it's unhelpful.

    I mentioned they could be losing support to Reform. How? Take your average disgruntled voter somewhere in the Red Wall who thinks the country's going to the dogs and the Tories deserve a kicking. A year or 6 months ago they might have argued that the country's going to the dogs because inflation is rampant, nobody's getting a decent pay rise, the roads are full of pot holes and it takes 6 months to get seen on the NHS. Now they might be saying the country's going to the dogs because the government has failed to stop the boats or control immigration. Before the obvious place to move your vote would be Labour. Now perhaps that's Reform.

    Once a voter has shifted to Reform is it possible the Tories could then win them back rather than them slipping back to Labour? Possibly, if they can then make the next election about cultural issues rather than the pound in your pocket.

    All this seasoned with just a touch of Labour not seeming to be any different on economic or public spending policy now.

    I would say Labour needs the political weather to move back on to economy and (particularly) crumbling public services, and it needs to offer something for people to grab on to in this respect.

    It could be somewhat similar to the months leading up to June 2010, when Conservative support began to slip.

    Putting in Labour 37%, to 30% Conservative still gives Labour a majority of 50, because the Lib Dems only win a third of the seats they got in 2010.
    37-30 is quite plausible...

    However the next 33% has to go somewhere. If we give 4 percentage points to the SNP (which may be generous), that leaves a staggering 29% to split between Reform, the LibDems, Green and Other.
    That would reflect the public not much liking either alternative.

    That said, I suspect if could be more like 39/32, with both Reform and Greens going to Conservative and Labour respectively.

    The electorate has been volatile since 2010, with Con/Lab getting 67% in 2010, 70% in 2015, 83% in 2017 and 78% in 2019, but likely dropping back in this coming election.
    For chunks of the electorate SKS is simply more of the same policies weve had since 1997 irrespective of who is in office. If you were a loser in the globalisation push why would you vote for more ?
    Globalisation didn't start for the UK in 1997.
    Some time in the reign of QE 1 ?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-10-december-2023/

    Labour 43% (+1)
    Conservative 25% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 13% (+1)
    Reform UK 11% (+1)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 2% (-1)
    Other 1% (+1)

    SKS Fans

    ...and breathe

    Until they publish the SKS numbers shortly
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    DougSeal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DougSeal said:

    That will be a devastating blow after the massive majority Corbyn achieved. Devastating.
    Centrist mentality that a fall from 150 Maj last week to 46 this week is a triumph for SKS

    And still cant even attempt an answer to why a fall of 13% in SKS's ratings might have come about

    Quarter Wit!
    Ah yes, I remember you announcing what a triumph last week's numbers were for SKS.

    Imagine the following scenario:

    January 1 poll:
    Lab 45 Con 30
    BJO... silent

    February 1 poll:
    Lab 40 Con 30
    BJO... Labour poll share falls 5%! SKS fans please explain

    March 1 poll
    Lab 45 Con 30
    BJO... silent

    etc

    Does that sound like a plausible scenario?
    GE2024
    LAB 39
    CON 35

    Sounds Plausible

    But Centrists would then claim NOM to LT 50 MAJ was a triumph and SKS Fans would still find reasons not to explain why LAB has underperformed.

    Lab under Burnham would be sailing along at over 50%
    That performance would make SKS only the second Labour PM born after the end of the First World War and mean he had achieved a bigger swing in terms of seats than at any GE I am aware of.

    Yet this, to you, is "underperforming" against a counterfactual that is, by definition, unfalsifiable. We can't argue against it any more than we can argue against the existence of God in the face of a religious nutter which is, in essence, what you are.
    Jezzah is the Messiah granted and by comparison SKS is just a very naughty Tory Boy
    The theological definition of 'Messiah' is 'the one who will seep away the inhabitants of the promised land so the exiles can return.'

    Given his - and your - comments on the subject of Israel/Palestine, I would suggest you think twice before using that word about him...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    SKS fans getting very testy about SKS's precipitous plunge from polling grace. :D

    No, it is PBers (mainly of a Tory variety) calling out BJO for conflating several polls by different polling organisations. Such bullsh*te should be called out for what it is.
    Even if it's fun?
    It defeats the premise of the site. BJO is perfectly entitled to say Starmer is rubbish, which I suspect we all agree with, but mixing and matching polling data is bang out of order.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,131

    Out of interest, why does the ERG still exist? I thought its only purpose was to investigate and expose the horrors of Britain's EU membership.

    As long as Europe exists - hovering there menacingly with its beady eye upon us, waiting to pounce - so too will the ERG. It is their duty. We should be grateful to this band of brothers, to these two dozen men and women, to these patriots. Never has so much been owed by so many to so few.
  • https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-10-december-2023/

    Labour 43% (+1)
    Conservative 25% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 13% (+1)
    Reform UK 11% (+1)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 2% (-1)
    Other 1% (+1)

    SKS Fans

    ...and breathe

    Until they publish the SKS numbers shortly
    Here you go. Historically, it's *highly* unusual for any LotO to be ahead on this question, never mind by double-digits.

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1734259337852272909
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    kinabalu said:

    Out of interest, why does the ERG still exist? I thought its only purpose was to investigate and expose the horrors of Britain's EU membership.

    As long as Europe exists - hovering there menacingly with its beady eye upon us, waiting to pounce - so too will the ERG. It is their duty. We should be grateful to this band of brothers, to these two dozen men and women, to these patriots. Never has so much been owed by so many to so few.
    And Francois is still its ‘leader’ despite being thrown out of the Tories for being too naughty even for them?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,131
    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    TimS said:

    There does seem to be a discernible medium term trend downwards in Labour VI, even as Tory support bounces around the mid to high 20s. The absolute gaps remain big but the peaks of Labour support are much lower than they were. What is causing that?

    I don't buy that it's the "not sealed the deal" phenomenon. Labour has as many (or as few) well known policies now as it had a year ago when it was touching 50% in the polls. And I can't see it being to do with Starmer support for Israel and apparent prevarication over Gaza. That's surely only an issue for a small minority of the Left, and we would expect to see Green VI rising if this were really a big driver.

    I do wonder if it's actually a measure of some (very limited) success by the conservatives in getting bread and butter issues off the table and moving the news agenda back on to culture war and immigration. It might not be helping the Tories massively given all the internal chaos, but it's not notably harming their support either. Whereas for Labour I wonder if it's unhelpful.

    I mentioned they could be losing support to Reform. How? Take your average disgruntled voter somewhere in the Red Wall who thinks the country's going to the dogs and the Tories deserve a kicking. A year or 6 months ago they might have argued that the country's going to the dogs because inflation is rampant, nobody's getting a decent pay rise, the roads are full of pot holes and it takes 6 months to get seen on the NHS. Now they might be saying the country's going to the dogs because the government has failed to stop the boats or control immigration. Before the obvious place to move your vote would be Labour. Now perhaps that's Reform.

    Once a voter has shifted to Reform is it possible the Tories could then win them back rather than them slipping back to Labour? Possibly, if they can then make the next election about cultural issues rather than the pound in your pocket.

    All this seasoned with just a touch of Labour not seeming to be any different on economic or public spending policy now.

    I would say Labour needs the political weather to move back on to economy and (particularly) crumbling public services, and it needs to offer something for people to grab on to in this respect.

    It could be somewhat similar to the months leading up to June 2010, when Conservative support began to slip.

    Putting in Labour 37%, to 30% Conservative still gives Labour a majority of 50, because the Lib Dems only win a third of the seats they got in 2010.
    37-30 is quite plausible...

    However the next 33% has to go somewhere. If we give 4 percentage points to the SNP (which may be generous), that leaves a staggering 29% to split between Reform, the LibDems, Green and Other.
    That would reflect the public not much liking either alternative.

    That said, I suspect if could be more like 39/32, with both Reform and Greens going to Conservative and Labour respectively.

    The electorate has been volatile since 2010, with Con/Lab getting 67% in 2010, 70% in 2015, 83% in 2017 and 78% in 2019, but likely dropping back in this coming election.
    For chunks of the electorate SKS is simply more of the same policies weve had since 1997 irrespective of who is in office. If you were a loser in the globalisation push why would you vote for more ?
    Globalisation didn't start for the UK in 1997.
    Some time in the reign of QE 1 ?
    Now that really was Global Britain.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,241
    Nigelb said:

    "his view was that he would eat one of my old trainers if there was an early election"

    Do you have any old trainers ?

    All my trainers as strictly 18-25
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    The Rwanda Bill will sail through tomorrow as I expect the awkward squad will hold fire and wait to table amendments . I don’t buy any of this voting against by Tory MPs . We might get a few abstentions but that’s it . I’m happy to come on and eat humble pie if my prediction implodes !
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,708
    isam said:

    isam said:

    DougSeal said:

    BREAKING: Labour lead falls to 11% (-4)

    🟥 LAB 40% (-2)
    🟦 CON 29% (+2)
    🟧 LD 11% (-2)
    🟩 GRN 7% (+1)
    🟪 REF 7% (+1)
    🟨 SNP 3% (=)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 8-11 December (+/- vs 4 December)

    SKS FANS PLEASE EXPLAIN

    You are pathetic
    Is that an explanation

    Perhaps you can now explain why SKS ratings have fallen from +2 to -11 in a week

    One train journey and the whole country are suddenly BJO Fans
    Do you put it down to his Thatchery statements? I'm not sure that has much traction outside politically-minded circles. Immigration has been the main news theme politically, perhaps this does play to Tory strengths despite their seeming disunity over Rwanda.
    Politically minded circles are probably over represented in polls
    True, but I wouldn't expect Thatcher haters to be tempted by the Tories. Though it could be more circuitous than that.
    My theory was that the polls have too many people who follow politics and are also prone to changing their answer to what they think sounds clever based on recent events and too few who don’t take much notice & stick with one party regardless
    Could be true for YouGov which relies on a large panel to sample aiui. They must be really into politics, and with spare time and happy for the payments. But other polls which attempt random representative sampling should be less affected, no? Those that don't follow politics will be in the Don't Knows.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    Lol looks like cop28 has managed to go backwards on climate change/carbon reduction
  • https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-10-december-2023/

    Labour 43% (+1)
    Conservative 25% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 13% (+1)
    Reform UK 11% (+1)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 2% (-1)
    Other 1% (+1)

    SKS Fans

    ...and breathe

    Until they publish the SKS numbers shortly
    These ones?

    Starmer leads Sunak by 12%.

    At this moment, which of the following do Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK? (10 December)

    Keir Starmer 42% (–)
    Rishi Sunak 30% (-1)

    Changes +/- 3 December


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1734259337852272909

    Starmer vs Sunak (10 December):

    Starmer leads Sunak on 16 of 17 leadership characteristics polled, including:

    Cares about people like me (39% | 25%)
    Understands the problems afflicting the UK (41% | 29%)
    Is a strong leader (35% | 28%)
    Can build a strong economy (38% | 33%)

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1734261851976777993

  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    kinabalu said:

    Out of interest, why does the ERG still exist? I thought its only purpose was to investigate and expose the horrors of Britain's EU membership.

    As long as Europe exists - hovering there menacingly with its beady eye upon us, waiting to pounce - so too will the ERG. It is their duty. We should be grateful to this band of brothers, to these two dozen men and women, to these patriots. Never has so much been owed by so many to so few.
    OMG that had me in fits of laughter . Bless you !
  • https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-10-december-2023/

    Labour 43% (+1)
    Conservative 25% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 13% (+1)
    Reform UK 11% (+1)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 2% (-1)
    Other 1% (+1)

    SKS Fans

    ...and breathe

    Until they publish the SKS numbers shortly
    Green Tories -1
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    geoffw said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    DougSeal said:

    BREAKING: Labour lead falls to 11% (-4)

    🟥 LAB 40% (-2)
    🟦 CON 29% (+2)
    🟧 LD 11% (-2)
    🟩 GRN 7% (+1)
    🟪 REF 7% (+1)
    🟨 SNP 3% (=)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 8-11 December (+/- vs 4 December)

    SKS FANS PLEASE EXPLAIN

    You are pathetic
    Is that an explanation

    Perhaps you can now explain why SKS ratings have fallen from +2 to -11 in a week

    One train journey and the whole country are suddenly BJO Fans
    Do you put it down to his Thatchery statements? I'm not sure that has much traction outside politically-minded circles. Immigration has been the main news theme politically, perhaps this does play to Tory strengths despite their seeming disunity over Rwanda.
    Politically minded circles are probably over represented in polls
    True, but I wouldn't expect Thatcher haters to be tempted by the Tories. Though it could be more circuitous than that.
    My theory was that the polls have too many people who follow politics and are also prone to changing their answer to what they think sounds clever based on recent events and too few who don’t take much notice & stick with one party regardless
    Could be true for YouGov which relies on a large panel to sample aiui. They must be really into politics, and with spare time and happy for the payments. But other polls which attempt random representative sampling should be less affected, no? Those that don't follow politics will be in the Don't Knows.

    A lot of people don’t follow politics but have a’team’ I reckon

    Could be that the dont knows are active politico’s - it makes them seem wise not to have committed until they’ve analysed all the info. Who can forget PB’s ‘Les undecideds’ at the referendum???
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,404
    Pulpstar said:

    Lol looks like cop28 has managed to go backwards on climate change/carbon reduction

    We are all going to die !

    But not necessarily today.
  • John, so you're anti-Labour, that's a refreshing perspective on this pro-Labour board, may I know who you might vote for?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,131
    Pulpstar said:

    Lol looks like cop28 has managed to go backwards on climate change/carbon reduction

    Well it *was* chaired by the CEO of a massive oil company.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,131
    nico679 said:

    The Rwanda Bill will sail through tomorrow as I expect the awkward squad will hold fire and wait to table amendments . I don’t buy any of this voting against by Tory MPs . We might get a few abstentions but that’s it . I’m happy to come on and eat humble pie if my prediction implodes !

    I think so too.
  • DougSeal said:

    BREAKING: Labour lead falls to 11% (-4)

    🟥 LAB 40% (-2)
    🟦 CON 29% (+2)
    🟧 LD 11% (-2)
    🟩 GRN 7% (+1)
    🟪 REF 7% (+1)
    🟨 SNP 3% (=)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 8-11 December (+/- vs 4 December)

    SKS FANS PLEASE EXPLAIN

    You can't even get the polling company right, you halfwit. This was Deltapoll, not YouGov, posted on here earlier.
    Yet you are still unable to explain

    Despite you not being a half wit
    For reference, that Lab+11 is a bigger lead in that one poll - and it's pretty much the *smallest* lead Labour has had in the last year - than Corbyn managed in any poll with any firm during the entire tenure of his leadership.
    Sssshhh.... don't tell BJO!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    John, so you're anti-Labour, that's a refreshing perspective on this pro-Labour board, may I know who you might vote for?

    This isn't pro-Labour. It's anti government. Always was. You should have seen the comments on Gordon Brown in the dog days of his 'administration.'

    Give us twelve months of Starmer and BJO will be back to looking like a Labour supporter.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited December 2023

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-10-december-2023/

    Labour 43% (+1)
    Conservative 25% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 13% (+1)
    Reform UK 11% (+1)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 2% (-1)
    Other 1% (+1)

    SKS Fans

    ...and breathe

    Until they publish the SKS numbers shortly
    These ones?

    Starmer leads Sunak by 12%.

    At this moment, which of the following do Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK? (10 December)

    Keir Starmer 42% (–)
    Rishi Sunak 30% (-1)

    Changes +/- 3 December


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1734259337852272909

    Starmer vs Sunak (10 December):

    Starmer leads Sunak on 16 of 17 leadership characteristics polled, including:

    Cares about people like me (39% | 25%)
    Understands the problems afflicting the UK (41% | 29%)
    Is a strong leader (35% | 28%)
    Can build a strong economy (38% | 33%)

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1734261851976777993

    The last R&W before Boris resigned

    At this moment, which of the following individuals do you think would be the better PM for the UK? (3 July)

    Keir Starmer: 39% (+2)
    Boris Johnson: 34% (-1)
    Don't know: 27% (-1)

    Changes +/- 26 June


    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1544003193419481088?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    In the same poll, Boris bt Rishi 32-28 & Truss 36-18. With Tory voters it was 57-22 & 61-14

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,131
    edited December 2023
    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Out of interest, why does the ERG still exist? I thought its only purpose was to investigate and expose the horrors of Britain's EU membership.

    As long as Europe exists - hovering there menacingly with its beady eye upon us, waiting to pounce - so too will the ERG. It is their duty. We should be grateful to this band of brothers, to these two dozen men and women, to these patriots. Never has so much been owed by so many to so few.
    And Francois is still its ‘leader’ despite being thrown out of the Tories for being too naughty even for them?
    Yes that was a treat seeing him again. NOT.

    (Do people remember the Friends episode built around that fad of the time for saying something then pausing and adding 'not' to it?)
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,241

    Alister Jack confirms he is minded to seek costs from the Scottish Government following the Court of Session judgment on Section 35.

    https://x.com/JournoStephen/status/1734242038999142653?s=20

    Paying lawyers to shuffle money from one government pocket to another? What’s the point?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Out of interest, why does the ERG still exist? I thought its only purpose was to investigate and expose the horrors of Britain's EU membership.

    As long as Europe exists - hovering there menacingly with its beady eye upon us, waiting to pounce - so too will the ERG. It is their duty. We should be grateful to this band of brothers, to these two dozen men and women, to these patriots. Never has so much been owed by so many to so few.
    And Francois is still its ‘leader’ despite being thrown out of the Tories for being too naughty even for them?
    Yes that was a treat seeing him again. NOT.

    (Do people remember the Friends episode built around that fad of the time for saying something then pausing and adding 'not,' to it?)
    Oh yes, I remember that… NOT

    Wayne’s World to blame for that fad I think
  • SKS fans getting very testy about SKS's precipitous plunge from polling grace. :D

    No, it is PBers (mainly of a Tory variety) calling out BJO for conflating several polls by different polling organisations. Such bullsh*te should be called out for what it is.
    Even if it's fun?
    It defeats the premise of the site. BJO is perfectly entitled to say Starmer is rubbish, which I suspect we all agree with, but mixing and matching polling data is bang out of order.
    Plus doesn't the Vicar of Bray have exclusive franchise for suchlike here on PB?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,708
    isam said:

    geoffw said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    DougSeal said:

    BREAKING: Labour lead falls to 11% (-4)

    🟥 LAB 40% (-2)
    🟦 CON 29% (+2)
    🟧 LD 11% (-2)
    🟩 GRN 7% (+1)
    🟪 REF 7% (+1)
    🟨 SNP 3% (=)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 8-11 December (+/- vs 4 December)

    SKS FANS PLEASE EXPLAIN

    You are pathetic
    Is that an explanation

    Perhaps you can now explain why SKS ratings have fallen from +2 to -11 in a week

    One train journey and the whole country are suddenly BJO Fans
    Do you put it down to his Thatchery statements? I'm not sure that has much traction outside politically-minded circles. Immigration has been the main news theme politically, perhaps this does play to Tory strengths despite their seeming disunity over Rwanda.
    Politically minded circles are probably over represented in polls
    True, but I wouldn't expect Thatcher haters to be tempted by the Tories. Though it could be more circuitous than that.
    My theory was that the polls have too many people who follow politics and are also prone to changing their answer to what they think sounds clever based on recent events and too few who don’t take much notice & stick with one party regardless
    Could be true for YouGov which relies on a large panel to sample aiui. They must be really into politics, and with spare time and happy for the payments. But other polls which attempt random representative sampling should be less affected, no? Those that don't follow politics will be in the Don't Knows.

    A lot of people don’t follow politics but have a’team’ I reckon

    Could be that the dont knows are active politico’s - it makes them seem wise not to have committed until they’ve analysed all the info. Who can forget PB’s ‘Les undecideds’ at the referendum???
    They are now "les misérables"

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    Opros Politics 🇺🇦
    @OprosUK
    Party Leader (and Chancellor) Approval Ratings:

    Keir Starmer (LAB): 36% (-3)
    Rishi Sunak (CON): 31% (-1)
    Jeremy Hunt (CON): 28% (=)

    via
    @RedfieldWilton
    , 10 Dec

    SKS Ratings plummet
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-10-december-2023/

    Labour 43% (+1)
    Conservative 25% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 13% (+1)
    Reform UK 11% (+1)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 2% (-1)
    Other 1% (+1)

    SKS Fans

    ...and breathe

    Until they publish the SKS numbers shortly
    Green Tories -1
    That must mean Green (Socialists) are unchanged then.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    So as Lab lead increases by 2

    SKS goes backward by one becoming an even bigger drag on LAB to last week.

    Guys going to fold like a cheap suit in a GE (Reverse 2017 effect)
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984

    Opros Politics 🇺🇦
    @OprosUK
    Party Leader (and Chancellor) Approval Ratings:

    Keir Starmer (LAB): 36% (-3)
    Rishi Sunak (CON): 31% (-1)
    Jeremy Hunt (CON): 28% (=)

    via
    @RedfieldWilton
    , 10 Dec

    SKS Ratings plummet

    Hunt has never been massively popular, but he is sort of sailing serenely through this period of late Toryism, with scarcely a scratch. Even the unpopular bits of the latest budget had the finger pointed at Sunak rather than him.

    It must be strange being Jeremy Hunt these days. You know most of the front bench of your own party don't particularly like you and don't share many beliefs with you, but you also know your role is almost untouchable until the election. A little like the Labour deputy leader position under both Tom and now Angela.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931
    edited December 2023

    Alister Jack confirms he is minded to seek costs from the Scottish Government following the Court of Session judgment on Section 35.

    https://x.com/JournoStephen/status/1734242038999142653?s=20

    Alister Quisling Jack.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited December 2023
    BJO we all agree you are right about Starmer, but wrong about Corbyn and Hamas.
  • isam said:

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-10-december-2023/

    Labour 43% (+1)
    Conservative 25% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 13% (+1)
    Reform UK 11% (+1)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 2% (-1)
    Other 1% (+1)

    SKS Fans

    ...and breathe

    Until they publish the SKS numbers shortly
    These ones?

    Starmer leads Sunak by 12%.

    At this moment, which of the following do Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK? (10 December)

    Keir Starmer 42% (–)
    Rishi Sunak 30% (-1)

    Changes +/- 3 December


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1734259337852272909

    Starmer vs Sunak (10 December):

    Starmer leads Sunak on 16 of 17 leadership characteristics polled, including:

    Cares about people like me (39% | 25%)
    Understands the problems afflicting the UK (41% | 29%)
    Is a strong leader (35% | 28%)
    Can build a strong economy (38% | 33%)

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1734261851976777993

    The last R&W before Boris resigned

    At this moment, which of the following individuals do you think would be the better PM for the UK? (3 July)

    Keir Starmer: 39% (+2)
    Boris Johnson: 34% (-1)
    Don't know: 27% (-1)

    Changes +/- 26 June


    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1544003193419481088?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    In the same poll, Boris bt Rishi 32-28 & Truss 36-18. With Tory voters it was 57-22 & 61-14

    Yup.

    All Boris had to do to stay on was Stop Telling Lies. The key one being about putting a sex pest in as the MP's line manager.

    It was that simple, but also that impossible.
  • Criminals to plant 4,000 trees in London this winter as Government seeks to ease pressure on prisons
    Offenders who receive short sentences after being convicted of crimes such as drink driving and shoplifting are planting trees instead of serving time in prison

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/criminals-prisons-trees-london-ealing-alex-chalk-b1126081.html

    Leaving aside whether this works or not, it is worrying that, first, it sounds like it follows a brainstorming session one wine time Friday and second, that it casts a shadow over council gardeners or whoever plants trees for a living.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,213
    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Out of interest, why does the ERG still exist? I thought its only purpose was to investigate and expose the horrors of Britain's EU membership.

    As long as Europe exists - hovering there menacingly with its beady eye upon us, waiting to pounce - so too will the ERG. It is their duty. We should be grateful to this band of brothers, to these two dozen men and women, to these patriots. Never has so much been owed by so many to so few.
    And Francois is still its ‘leader’ despite being thrown out of the Tories for being too naughty even for them?
    Yes that was a treat seeing him again. NOT.

    (Do people remember the Friends episode built around that fad of the time for saying something then pausing and adding 'not' to it?)
    His book (Spartan Victory), so badly written that he had to self-publish it, is on Amazon and the reviews are a joy:

    "Came with both a free packet of crayons and a blindfold"

    "So full of basic errors in English that it is too painful to read ... the list of innumerable mistakes, even an educated ten year old wouldn't make"

    "No parody could do this justice"

    "My father who was a veteran didn’t fight on the beaches to enable such drivel to be published."
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,708
    TimS said:

    Opros Politics 🇺🇦
    @OprosUK
    Party Leader (and Chancellor) Approval Ratings:

    Keir Starmer (LAB): 36% (-3)
    Rishi Sunak (CON): 31% (-1)
    Jeremy Hunt (CON): 28% (=)

    via
    @RedfieldWilton
    , 10 Dec

    SKS Ratings plummet

    Hunt has never been massively popular, but he is sort of sailing serenely through this period of late Toryism, with scarcely a scratch. Even the unpopular bits of the latest budget had the finger pointed at Sunak rather than him.

    It must be strange being Jeremy Hunt these days. You know most of the front bench of your own party don't particularly like you and don't share many beliefs with you, but you also know your role is almost untouchable until the election. A little like the Labour deputy leader position under both Tom and now Angela.
    Hmm Tom Watson an 'untouchable' - well deserved status imo

  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275

    Opros Politics 🇺🇦
    @OprosUK
    Party Leader (and Chancellor) Approval Ratings:

    Keir Starmer (LAB): 36% (-3)
    Rishi Sunak (CON): 31% (-1)
    Jeremy Hunt (CON): 28% (=)

    via
    @RedfieldWilton
    , 10 Dec

    SKS Ratings plummet

    I wouldn’t call a 3 point drop a plummet ! I’m not a fan of Starmer and would much prefer Rayner as leader but Labour MPs would have been overjoyed if they were told the party would be leading by a large margin a year out from the election back in 2021 .
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,630
    edited December 2023
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984

    Criminals to plant 4,000 trees in London this winter as Government seeks to ease pressure on prisons
    Offenders who receive short sentences after being convicted of crimes such as drink driving and shoplifting are planting trees instead of serving time in prison

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/criminals-prisons-trees-london-ealing-alex-chalk-b1126081.html

    Leaving aside whether this works or not, it is worrying that, first, it sounds like it follows a brainstorming session one wine time Friday and second, that it casts a shadow over council gardeners or whoever plants trees for a living.

    Generally outsourced contractors and facilities management businesses, and they are short staffed and expensive. So on the face of it not a bad thing to have offenders do. But trees can easily be badly planted and then die a few months after planting, especially in summer. It's one thing planting them but you the need armies of people watering them through the first season.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,708
    TimS said:

    Criminals to plant 4,000 trees in London this winter as Government seeks to ease pressure on prisons
    Offenders who receive short sentences after being convicted of crimes such as drink driving and shoplifting are planting trees instead of serving time in prison

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/criminals-prisons-trees-london-ealing-alex-chalk-b1126081.html

    Leaving aside whether this works or not, it is worrying that, first, it sounds like it follows a brainstorming session one wine time Friday and second, that it casts a shadow over council gardeners or whoever plants trees for a living.

    Generally outsourced contractors and facilities management businesses, and they are short staffed and expensive. So on the face of it not a bad thing to have offenders do. But trees can easily be badly planted and then die a few months after planting, especially in summer. It's one thing planting them but you the need armies of people watering them through the first season.
    and thinning them. Maybe they'll be let off chokey to do that too

  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984
    Farage post-Jungle:

    "After his time in the jungle, Nigel Farage's popularity is essentially unchanged

    Very favourable: 10% (+2 since 20 November)
    Somewhat favourable: 20% (+1)
    Somewhat unfavourable: 19% (+1)
    Very unfavourable: 35% (-4)
    Don't know: 16% (-1)"

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1734270036020228498?s=20

    Actually I'd say that's a small increase in favourability. Looking at the party breakdowns though it's notable that he's marginally more popular among Tory voters than among people who voted Leave.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,373
    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Out of interest, why does the ERG still exist? I thought its only purpose was to investigate and expose the horrors of Britain's EU membership.

    As long as Europe exists - hovering there menacingly with its beady eye upon us, waiting to pounce - so too will the ERG. It is their duty. We should be grateful to this band of brothers, to these two dozen men and women, to these patriots. Never has so much been owed by so many to so few.
    And Francois is still its ‘leader’ despite being thrown out of the Tories for being too naughty even for them?
    Yes that was a treat seeing him again. NOT.

    (Do people remember the Friends episode built around that fad of the time for saying something then pausing and adding 'not,' to it?)
    Oh yes, I remember that… NOT

    Wayne’s World to blame for that fad I think
    Wasn’t Friends crap like ‘Talk to the Hand’ and other such guff ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,908
    We certainly aren't going to have a snap winter election.

    Even if Sunak loses his Rwanda bill and makes it a VONC Tory MPs then likely fall into line
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-10-december-2023/

    Labour 43% (+1)
    Conservative 25% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 13% (+1)
    Reform UK 11% (+1)
    Green 5% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 2% (-1)
    Other 1% (+1)

    SKS Fans

    ...and breathe

    Until they publish the SKS numbers shortly
    These ones?

    Starmer leads Sunak by 12%.

    At this moment, which of the following do Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK? (10 December)

    Keir Starmer 42% (–)
    Rishi Sunak 30% (-1)

    Changes +/- 3 December


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1734259337852272909

    Starmer vs Sunak (10 December):

    Starmer leads Sunak on 16 of 17 leadership characteristics polled, including:

    Cares about people like me (39% | 25%)
    Understands the problems afflicting the UK (41% | 29%)
    Is a strong leader (35% | 28%)
    Can build a strong economy (38% | 33%)

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1734261851976777993

    The last R&W before Boris resigned

    At this moment, which of the following individuals do you think would be the better PM for the UK? (3 July)

    Keir Starmer: 39% (+2)
    Boris Johnson: 34% (-1)
    Don't know: 27% (-1)

    Changes +/- 26 June


    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1544003193419481088?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    In the same poll, Boris bt Rishi 32-28 & Truss 36-18. With Tory voters it was 57-22 & 61-14

    Yup.

    All Boris had to do to stay on was Stop Telling Lies. The key one being about putting a sex pest in as the MP's line manager.


    It was that simple, but also that impossible.
    The MPs regret it now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,908
    TimS said:

    Farage post-Jungle:

    "After his time in the jungle, Nigel Farage's popularity is essentially unchanged

    Very favourable: 10% (+2 since 20 November)
    Somewhat favourable: 20% (+1)
    Somewhat unfavourable: 19% (+1)
    Very unfavourable: 35% (-4)
    Don't know: 16% (-1)"

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1734270036020228498?s=20

    Actually I'd say that's a small increase in favourability. Looking at the party breakdowns though it's notable that he's marginally more popular among Tory voters than among people who voted Leave.

    30% favourable for Nige is slightly higher than the current Tory voteshare of about 22-29% however
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,908

    Opros Politics 🇺🇦
    @OprosUK
    Party Leader (and Chancellor) Approval Ratings:

    Keir Starmer (LAB): 36% (-3)
    Rishi Sunak (CON): 31% (-1)
    Jeremy Hunt (CON): 28% (=)

    via
    @RedfieldWilton
    , 10 Dec

    SKS Ratings plummet

    Sunak still polling slightly above his party and Starmer polling slightly worse than his party.

    Hunt polls no better than the Tory poll rating
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TimS said:

    Farage post-Jungle:

    "After his time in the jungle, Nigel Farage's popularity is essentially unchanged

    Very favourable: 10% (+2 since 20 November)
    Somewhat favourable: 20% (+1)
    Somewhat unfavourable: 19% (+1)
    Very unfavourable: 35% (-4)
    Don't know: 16% (-1)"

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1734270036020228498?s=20

    Actually I'd say that's a small increase in favourability. Looking at the party breakdowns though it's notable that he's marginally more popular among Tory voters than among people who voted Leave.

    (+6) is generally considered a decent uptick in net favourability I’d have thought. Interesting to see it spun as ‘essentially unchanged’ by YouGov
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,908

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    16s
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 40% (-2)
    CON: 29% (+2)
    LDEM: 11% (-2)

    via
    @DeltapollUK
    , 08 - 11 Dec

    Well that is better than 1997 at least for Rishi when New Labour had a 13% lead over Major's Tories
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    Farage gaining on SKS


    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    55s
    Nigel Farage Favourability:

    Favourable: 30% (+3)
    Unfavourable: 54% (-3)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 11 Dec.
    Changes w/ 20 Nov.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ...
    HYUFD said:

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    16s
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 40% (-2)
    CON: 29% (+2)
    LDEM: 11% (-2)

    via
    @DeltapollUK
    , 08 - 11 Dec

    Well that is better than 1997 at least for Rishi when New Labour had a 13% lead over Major's Tories
    Are you ignoring today's other poll?
  • Reading BJO's contributions I can imagine what the Novara Media election night broadcast will be. Cheering on every tight Tory defence, only nice Mr Sunak can save the country from that Tory bastard Starmer.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    Keir Starmer
    Explore the latest public opinion about Keir Starmer
    SKS on Minus 23
    Fame
    94%
    Popularity
    22%
    Disliked by
    45%
    Neutral
    28%
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Keir_Starmer
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Reading BJO's contributions I can imagine what the Novara Media election night broadcast will be. Cheering on every tight Tory defence, only nice Mr Sunak can save the country from that Tory bastard Starmer.

    Whereas Peter Hitchens has Sir Keir down as a stealth Marxist. He thinks the same of all New Labour, and to be fair, many of them were commies at Uni
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Taz said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Out of interest, why does the ERG still exist? I thought its only purpose was to investigate and expose the horrors of Britain's EU membership.

    As long as Europe exists - hovering there menacingly with its beady eye upon us, waiting to pounce - so too will the ERG. It is their duty. We should be grateful to this band of brothers, to these two dozen men and women, to these patriots. Never has so much been owed by so many to so few.
    And Francois is still its ‘leader’ despite being thrown out of the Tories for being too naughty even for them?
    Yes that was a treat seeing him again. NOT.

    (Do people remember the Friends episode built around that fad of the time for saying something then pausing and adding 'not,' to it?)
    Oh yes, I remember that… NOT

    Wayne’s World to blame for that fad I think
    Wasn’t Friends crap like ‘Talk to the Hand’ and other such guff ?
    I don’t think I have ever watched a whole episode of it
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited December 2023

    Farage gaining on SKS


    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    55s
    Nigel Farage Favourability:

    Favourable: 30% (+3)
    Unfavourable: 54% (-3)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 11 Dec.
    Changes w/ 20 Nov.

    Miles clear on Gross Positives

    Boris was beating Sir Keir on those in his last R&W too
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660

    Reading BJO's contributions I can imagine what the Novara Media election night broadcast will be. Cheering on every tight Tory defence, only nice Mr Sunak can save the country from that Tory bastard Starmer.

    Or in my case cheering every Green MP, Independent win in Islington North and every LFI failure.

    I expect to be in bed 5 mins after the Exit Poll
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549

    Criminals to plant 4,000 trees in London this winter as Government seeks to ease pressure on prisons
    Offenders who receive short sentences after being convicted of crimes such as drink driving and shoplifting are planting trees instead of serving time in prison

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/criminals-prisons-trees-london-ealing-alex-chalk-b1126081.html

    Leaving aside whether this works or not, it is worrying that, first, it sounds like it follows a brainstorming session one wine time Friday and second, that it casts a shadow over council gardeners or whoever plants trees for a living.

    They should be picking up litter as well.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,413
    isam said:

    TimS said:

    Farage post-Jungle:

    "After his time in the jungle, Nigel Farage's popularity is essentially unchanged

    Very favourable: 10% (+2 since 20 November)
    Somewhat favourable: 20% (+1)
    Somewhat unfavourable: 19% (+1)
    Very unfavourable: 35% (-4)
    Don't know: 16% (-1)"

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1734270036020228498?s=20

    Actually I'd say that's a small increase in favourability. Looking at the party breakdowns though it's notable that he's marginally more popular among Tory voters than among people who voted Leave.

    (+6) is generally considered a decent uptick in net favourability I’d have thought. Interesting to see it spun as ‘essentially unchanged’ by YouGov
    Embarrassingly pathetic to issue such a verdict above data that doesn't match I'd say. Would you ask Yougov for poll analysis on the basis of such a howler?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    Totally O/t but for the first time in my life we’ve had a Christmas card from the Labour Party. Hand delivered, but we’ve no idea who it was.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Reading BJO's contributions I can imagine what the Novara Media election night broadcast will be. Cheering on every tight Tory defence, only nice Mr Sunak can save the country from that Tory bastard Starmer.

    Or in my case cheering every Green MP, Independent win in Islington North and every LFI failure.

    I expect to be in bed 5 mins after the Exit Poll
    @BritainElects
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 43% (+1)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    LDEM: 13% (+1)
    REF: 11% (+1)
    GRN: 5% (-1)

    via
    @RedfieldWilton
    , 10 Dec

    @bigjohnowls please explain. Lookin' good for the Greens especially.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    DougSeal said:

    Reading BJO's contributions I can imagine what the Novara Media election night broadcast will be. Cheering on every tight Tory defence, only nice Mr Sunak can save the country from that Tory bastard Starmer.

    Or in my case cheering every Green MP, Independent win in Islington North and every LFI failure.

    I expect to be in bed 5 mins after the Exit Poll
    @BritainElects
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 43% (+1)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    LDEM: 13% (+1)
    REF: 11% (+1)
    GRN: 5% (-1)

    via
    @RedfieldWilton
    , 10 Dec

    @bigjohnowls please explain. Lookin' good for the Greens especially.
    Labour is currently averaging 43% in the polls, which is a definite slight decline since a few weeks ago when it was more like 45%.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,413
    TimS said:

    Opros Politics 🇺🇦
    @OprosUK
    Party Leader (and Chancellor) Approval Ratings:

    Keir Starmer (LAB): 36% (-3)
    Rishi Sunak (CON): 31% (-1)
    Jeremy Hunt (CON): 28% (=)

    via
    @RedfieldWilton
    , 10 Dec

    SKS Ratings plummet

    Hunt has never been massively popular, but he is sort of sailing serenely through this period of late Toryism, with scarcely a scratch. Even the unpopular bits of the latest budget had the finger pointed at Sunak rather than him.

    It must be strange being Jeremy Hunt these days. You know most of the front bench of your own party don't particularly like you and don't share many beliefs with you, but you also know your role is almost untouchable until the election. A little like the Labour deputy leader position under both Tom and now Angela.
    I don’t think that's remotely true. Hunt isn't and has never been popular, and he'll be sacrificed in a split second if Rishi needs another big reset.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Criminals to plant 4,000 trees in London this winter as Government seeks to ease pressure on prisons
    Offenders who receive short sentences after being convicted of crimes such as drink driving and shoplifting are planting trees instead of serving time in prison

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/criminals-prisons-trees-london-ealing-alex-chalk-b1126081.html

    Leaving aside whether this works or not, it is worrying that, first, it sounds like it follows a brainstorming session one wine time Friday and second, that it casts a shadow over council gardeners or whoever plants trees for a living.

    They should be picking up litter as well.
    What does that do to those employed as refuse collectors and street cleaners?

    Leaving that aside, I've only once seen offenders picking up litter. They seemed to have done a bang-up job until the end when they fly-tipped all they'd collected.
  • Andy_JS said:

    DougSeal said:

    Reading BJO's contributions I can imagine what the Novara Media election night broadcast will be. Cheering on every tight Tory defence, only nice Mr Sunak can save the country from that Tory bastard Starmer.

    Or in my case cheering every Green MP, Independent win in Islington North and every LFI failure.

    I expect to be in bed 5 mins after the Exit Poll
    @BritainElects
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 43% (+1)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    LDEM: 13% (+1)
    REF: 11% (+1)
    GRN: 5% (-1)

    via
    @RedfieldWilton
    , 10 Dec

    @bigjohnowls please explain. Lookin' good for the Greens especially.
    Labour is currently averaging 43% in the polls, which is a definite slight decline since a few weeks ago when it was more like 45%.
    I'd be more than happy with 43% at the GE!
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,051
    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    TimS said:

    There does seem to be a discernible medium term trend downwards in Labour VI, even as Tory support bounces around the mid to high 20s. The absolute gaps remain big but the peaks of Labour support are much lower than they were. What is causing that?

    I don't buy that it's the "not sealed the deal" phenomenon. Labour has as many (or as few) well known policies now as it had a year ago when it was touching 50% in the polls. And I can't see it being to do with Starmer support for Israel and apparent prevarication over Gaza. That's surely only an issue for a small minority of the Left, and we would expect to see Green VI rising if this were really a big driver.

    I do wonder if it's actually a measure of some (very limited) success by the conservatives in getting bread and butter issues off the table and moving the news agenda back on to culture war and immigration. It might not be helping the Tories massively given all the internal chaos, but it's not notably harming their support either. Whereas for Labour I wonder if it's unhelpful.

    I mentioned they could be losing support to Reform. How? Take your average disgruntled voter somewhere in the Red Wall who thinks the country's going to the dogs and the Tories deserve a kicking. A year or 6 months ago they might have argued that the country's going to the dogs because inflation is rampant, nobody's getting a decent pay rise, the roads are full of pot holes and it takes 6 months to get seen on the NHS. Now they might be saying the country's going to the dogs because the government has failed to stop the boats or control immigration. Before the obvious place to move your vote would be Labour. Now perhaps that's Reform.

    Once a voter has shifted to Reform is it possible the Tories could then win them back rather than them slipping back to Labour? Possibly, if they can then make the next election about cultural issues rather than the pound in your pocket.

    All this seasoned with just a touch of Labour not seeming to be any different on economic or public spending policy now.

    I would say Labour needs the political weather to move back on to economy and (particularly) crumbling public services, and it needs to offer something for people to grab on to in this respect.

    It could be somewhat similar to the months leading up to June 2010, when Conservative support began to slip.

    Putting in Labour 37%, to 30% Conservative still gives Labour a majority of 50, because the Lib Dems only win a third of the seats they got in 2010.
    37-30 is quite plausible...

    However the next 33% has to go somewhere. If we give 4 percentage points to the SNP (which may be generous), that leaves a staggering 29% to split between Reform, the LibDems, Green and Other.
    That would reflect the public not much liking either alternative.

    That said, I suspect if could be more like 39/32, with both Reform and Greens going to Conservative and Labour respectively.

    The electorate has been volatile since 2010, with Con/Lab getting 67% in 2010, 70% in 2015, 83% in 2017 and 78% in 2019, but likely dropping back in this coming election.
    For chunks of the electorate SKS is simply more of the same policies weve had since 1997 irrespective of who is in office. If you were a loser in the globalisation push why would you vote for more ?
    Globalisation didn't start for the UK in 1997.
    It was already well underway in 1897.
  • Imagine if the Government had passed the Safety of the United Kingdom (Covid 19) Bill in February 2020.

    https://twitter.com/imran_1/status/1734276808420348407
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited December 2023

    isam said:

    TimS said:

    Farage post-Jungle:

    "After his time in the jungle, Nigel Farage's popularity is essentially unchanged

    Very favourable: 10% (+2 since 20 November)
    Somewhat favourable: 20% (+1)
    Somewhat unfavourable: 19% (+1)
    Very unfavourable: 35% (-4)
    Don't know: 16% (-1)"

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1734270036020228498?s=20

    Actually I'd say that's a small increase in favourability. Looking at the party breakdowns though it's notable that he's marginally more popular among Tory voters than among people who voted Leave.

    (+6) is generally considered a decent uptick in net favourability I’d have thought. Interesting to see it spun as ‘essentially unchanged’ by YouGov
    Embarrassingly pathetic to issue such a verdict above data that doesn't match I'd say. Would you ask Yougov for poll analysis on the basis of such a howler?
    Yes. It’s helpful though, as it shows the prism the media generally view Farage through in numerical form.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    DougSeal said:

    Reading BJO's contributions I can imagine what the Novara Media election night broadcast will be. Cheering on every tight Tory defence, only nice Mr Sunak can save the country from that Tory bastard Starmer.

    Or in my case cheering every Green MP, Independent win in Islington North and every LFI failure.

    I expect to be in bed 5 mins after the Exit Poll
    @BritainElects
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 43% (+1)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    LDEM: 13% (+1)
    REF: 11% (+1)
    GRN: 5% (-1)

    via
    @RedfieldWilton
    , 10 Dec

    @bigjohnowls please explain. Lookin' good for the Greens especially.
    Latest literature from the Greens tells me they are looking to get "up to 22 MPs"

    IMO they will fall short by at least 21 but still expect them to close the number of votes they trail Labour quite a bit compared to 2017
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,070
    edited December 2023

    Totally O/t but for the first time in my life we’ve had a Christmas card from the Labour Party. Hand delivered, but we’ve no idea who it was.

    It was "The Labour Party" - the disembodied spirit thereof. It flits in appearance between Keir Hardie, Nye Bevan and Harold Wilson. It is mostly transparent and has a slight red tinge. it looks a bit like the spirit of Michaelmas.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375

    Totally O/t but for the first time in my life we’ve had a Christmas card from the Labour Party. Hand delivered, but we’ve no idea who it was.

    Well, I can confidently inform you that it wasn't BJO.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    viewcode said:

    Totally O/t but for the first time in my life we’ve had a Christmas card from the Labour Party. Hand delivered, but we’ve no idea who it was.

    It was "The Labour Party" - the disembodied spirit thereof. It flits in appearance between Keir Hardie, Nye Bevan and Harold Wilson. It is mostly transparent and has a slight red tinge. it looks a bit like the spirit of Michaelmas.
    If any Lab person tries to hand deliver me one.

    They may get covered in festive spirit but not very Comradely language
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984

    TimS said:

    Opros Politics 🇺🇦
    @OprosUK
    Party Leader (and Chancellor) Approval Ratings:

    Keir Starmer (LAB): 36% (-3)
    Rishi Sunak (CON): 31% (-1)
    Jeremy Hunt (CON): 28% (=)

    via
    @RedfieldWilton
    , 10 Dec

    SKS Ratings plummet

    Hunt has never been massively popular, but he is sort of sailing serenely through this period of late Toryism, with scarcely a scratch. Even the unpopular bits of the latest budget had the finger pointed at Sunak rather than him.

    It must be strange being Jeremy Hunt these days. You know most of the front bench of your own party don't particularly like you and don't share many beliefs with you, but you also know your role is almost untouchable until the election. A little like the Labour deputy leader position under both Tom and now Angela.
    I don’t think that's remotely true. Hunt isn't and has never been popular, and he'll be sacrificed in a split second if Rishi needs another big reset.
    The only thing you seem to be disagreeing with is the idea he’s untouchable. I’m not sure it would be at all easy to ditch him given the circumstances of his appointment. But we shall see.

    We all agree he’s never been very popular with the public. For the left he’s a symbol of austerity, for the right he’s a centrist blob remainer. But he’s not getting much of any flak at the moment. He’s almost completely ignored. The arguments are elsewhere.

    Darling had a similar experience as Brown’s chancellor. Because his boss had been CoE previously I think the public still saw the PM as the power behind the throne.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984

    viewcode said:

    Totally O/t but for the first time in my life we’ve had a Christmas card from the Labour Party. Hand delivered, but we’ve no idea who it was.

    It was "The Labour Party" - the disembodied spirit thereof. It flits in appearance between Keir Hardie, Nye Bevan and Harold Wilson. It is mostly transparent and has a slight red tinge. it looks a bit like the spirit of Michaelmas.
    If any Lab person tries to hand deliver me one.

    They may get covered in festive spirit but not very Comradely language
    Ooh matron.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,873
    Evening all :)

    Curious to see the Johnsonian diehards and the Corbynites speaking almost with one voice. It's almost as though the past is an anchor trying to pull us back.

    Deltapoll and Redfield & Wilton have gone in different directions this evening - for Deltapoll, it's their lowest Labour VI since March 2022. R&W are much more within their comfort zone with an 18-point Labour lead. There's no indication of the fall in Labour share going straight back to the Conservatives - it's being shared through all parties and perhaps none.

    Interesting to hear Sunak's evidence at the Covid hearing today. I'm not interested in EOTHO as I am in the extent of fraudulent appropriation of Covid funds by individuals and organisations. It's clear billions were handed out often on the most rudimentary evidence of need and unfortunately the opportunity to get free money from the Government has proven too much for some. I've seen figures varying from £5 billion to £15 billion in terms of public money given out either in error or obtained via fraud. Let's hope someone asks the former Chancellor of the Exchequer about that.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    viewcode said:

    Totally O/t but for the first time in my life we’ve had a Christmas card from the Labour Party. Hand delivered, but we’ve no idea who it was.

    It was "The Labour Party" - the disembodied spirit thereof. It flits in appearance between Keir Hardie, Nye Bevan and Harold Wilson. It is mostly transparent and has a slight red tinge. it looks a bit like the spirit of Michaelmas.
    I could go with Nye Bevan. He wasn’t perfect…… what human being (except Mrs Cole) is, ….. and I wasn’t happy with his acceptance of nuclear weapons, but for me he was ‘Labour’.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Curious to see the Johnsonian diehards and the Corbynites speaking almost with one voice. It's almost as though the past is an anchor trying to pull us back.

    Deltapoll and Redfield & Wilton have gone in different directions this evening - for Deltapoll, it's their lowest Labour VI since March 2022. R&W are much more within their comfort zone with an 18-point Labour lead. There's no indication of the fall in Labour share going straight back to the Conservatives - it's being shared through all parties and perhaps none.

    Interesting to hear Sunak's evidence at the Covid hearing today. I'm not interested in EOTHO as I am in the extent of fraudulent appropriation of Covid funds by individuals and organisations. It's clear billions were handed out often on the most rudimentary evidence of need and unfortunately the opportunity to get free money from the Government has proven too much for some. I've seen figures varying from £5 billion to £15 billion in terms of public money given out either in error or obtained via fraud. Let's hope someone asks the former Chancellor of the Exchequer about that.

    And if frontline services had not got PPI, some would have been screeching about how the government had procurement so much in a bureaucracy they let people die.

    There was a worldwide demand for goods *in a hurry*. 'Normal' processes would never fit the situation.

    Was there waste? Certainly.
    Was there fraud? Some, perhaps. The legal eagles will sort that out.
    Did frontline services get PPI they would not otherwise have got? IMV yes.

    The question is who you weigh those up. And I might suggest the way you weigh them up now is very different from how they would have been weighed up in April or May 2020.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572

    Totally O/t but for the first time in my life we’ve had a Christmas card from the Labour Party. Hand delivered, but we’ve no idea who it was.

    Recently Mrs J had a box of very expensive chocolates and another gift delivered. It was unsigned, and we did not know who it was from.

    It turned out to be her company's 'reward' for five years' service.

    The longest she has been in any job. Job security, eh?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,873
    viewcode said:

    Totally O/t but for the first time in my life we’ve had a Christmas card from the Labour Party. Hand delivered, but we’ve no idea who it was.

    It was "The Labour Party" - the disembodied spirit thereof. It flits in appearance between Keir Hardie, Nye Bevan and Harold Wilson. It is mostly transparent and has a slight red tinge. it looks a bit like the spirit of Michaelmas.
    Seriously - the Conservative Party has had more regenerations than Doctor Who but still seems to attract support yet when Labour tries to offer something new there's this nostalgia fest for Attlee, Cripps and Morrison.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,580

    Totally O/t but for the first time in my life we’ve had a Christmas card from the Labour Party. Hand delivered, but we’ve no idea who it was.

    If you lived near me, you'd have had a hand delivered Christmas card from the Lib Dems signed by Sarah Olney.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653
    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Out of interest, why does the ERG still exist? I thought its only purpose was to investigate and expose the horrors of Britain's EU membership.

    As long as Europe exists - hovering there menacingly with its beady eye upon us, waiting to pounce - so too will the ERG. It is their duty. We should be grateful to this band of brothers, to these two dozen men and women, to these patriots. Never has so much been owed by so many to so few.
    And Francois is still its ‘leader’ despite being thrown out of the Tories for being too naughty even for them?
    Has Francois been thrown out of the Tory party? News to me.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,618
    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    TimS said:

    There does seem to be a discernible medium term trend downwards in Labour VI, even as Tory support bounces around the mid to high 20s. The absolute gaps remain big but the peaks of Labour support are much lower than they were. What is causing that?

    I don't buy that it's the "not sealed the deal" phenomenon. Labour has as many (or as few) well known policies now as it had a year ago when it was touching 50% in the polls. And I can't see it being to do with Starmer support for Israel and apparent prevarication over Gaza. That's surely only an issue for a small minority of the Left, and we would expect to see Green VI rising if this were really a big driver.

    I do wonder if it's actually a measure of some (very limited) success by the conservatives in getting bread and butter issues off the table and moving the news agenda back on to culture war and immigration. It might not be helping the Tories massively given all the internal chaos, but it's not notably harming their support either. Whereas for Labour I wonder if it's unhelpful.

    I mentioned they could be losing support to Reform. How? Take your average disgruntled voter somewhere in the Red Wall who thinks the country's going to the dogs and the Tories deserve a kicking. A year or 6 months ago they might have argued that the country's going to the dogs because inflation is rampant, nobody's getting a decent pay rise, the roads are full of pot holes and it takes 6 months to get seen on the NHS. Now they might be saying the country's going to the dogs because the government has failed to stop the boats or control immigration. Before the obvious place to move your vote would be Labour. Now perhaps that's Reform.

    Once a voter has shifted to Reform is it possible the Tories could then win them back rather than them slipping back to Labour? Possibly, if they can then make the next election about cultural issues rather than the pound in your pocket.

    All this seasoned with just a touch of Labour not seeming to be any different on economic or public spending policy now.

    I would say Labour needs the political weather to move back on to economy and (particularly) crumbling public services, and it needs to offer something for people to grab on to in this respect.

    It could be somewhat similar to the months leading up to June 2010, when Conservative support began to slip.

    Putting in Labour 37%, to 30% Conservative still gives Labour a majority of 50, because the Lib Dems only win a third of the seats they got in 2010.
    37-30 is quite plausible...

    However the next 33% has to go somewhere. If we give 4 percentage points to the SNP (which may be generous), that leaves a staggering 29% to split between Reform, the LibDems, Green and Other.
    That would reflect the public not much liking either alternative.

    That said, I suspect if could be more like 39/32, with both Reform and Greens going to Conservative and Labour respectively.

    The electorate has been volatile since 2010, with Con/Lab getting 67% in 2010, 70% in 2015, 83% in 2017 and 78% in 2019, but likely dropping back in this coming election.
    For chunks of the electorate SKS is simply more of the same policies weve had since 1997 irrespective of who is in office. If you were a loser in the globalisation push why would you vote for more ?
    Globalisation didn't start for the UK in 1997.
    It was a major inflection point though.

    Remember that James Goldsmith's Euroscepticism was primarily in opposition to their turn towards global free trade which he saw as shattering the balance between capital and labour in the developed world.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited December 2023
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Curious to see the Johnsonian diehards and the Corbynites speaking almost with one voice. It's almost as though the past is an anchor trying to pull us back.

    Deltapoll and Redfield & Wilton have gone in different directions this evening - for Deltapoll, it's their lowest Labour VI since March 2022. R&W are much more within their comfort zone with an 18-point Labour lead. There's no indication of the fall in Labour share going straight back to the Conservatives - it's being shared through all parties and perhaps none.

    Interesting to hear Sunak's evidence at the Covid hearing today. I'm not interested in EOTHO as I am in the extent of fraudulent appropriation of Covid funds by individuals and organisations. It's clear billions were handed out often on the most rudimentary evidence of need and unfortunately the opportunity to get free money from the Government has proven too much for some. I've seen figures varying from £5 billion to £15 billion in terms of public money given out either in error or obtained via fraud. Let's hope someone asks the former Chancellor of the Exchequer about that.

    The main and key difference being, Tories were doing much better under Boris, who won them a huge majority, and Labour were doing much worse under Jezza, who lost in a landslide

    His bad GE still saw a better vote share than EdM & Gordo managed though
This discussion has been closed.