Labour and Tories neck and neck in byelection race for Mid Beds, poll says
Survey reveals Labour more likely than Lib Dems to overturn Conservatives’ 25,000 majority in Nadine Dorries’s former seat
Labour and the Conservatives are neck and neck in the battle for the previously safe Tory seat of Mid Bedfordshire, according to a poll that suggests a split “progressive” vote could allow Rishi Sunak’s party to retain the constituency.
Labour and the Liberal Democrats are making a full-tilt effort to win the seat from the Conservatives after the resignation of Nadine Dorries, a close ally of Boris Johnson, who eventually quit after being denied a place on the former prime minister’s resignation honours list.
A new constituency poll seen by the Observer suggests that the Tory vote share in the seat has collapsed, halving from the near 60% that Dorries enjoyed at the last election. However, the Survation poll commissioned by the Labour Together group, which is close to Keir Starmer, has Labour and the Tories on level pegging.
With undecided voters excluded, it puts Labour candidate Alistair Strathern and the Conservative candidate, Festus Akinbusoye, on 29% of the vote each. It would represent a double-digit swing from the Conservatives to Labour since the election. However, the Lib Dem’s Emma Holland-Lindsay is a close third, with 22%.
With undecided voters included, Labour and the Conservatives are tied on 20%, with the Lib Dems on 15%. The poll found that 27% of those intending to vote are still undecided.
The UK’s chief veterinary officer has stressed there will be an amnesty before a ban on American XL bully dogs, after an expert said the breed was behind almost half of all attacks on humans and dogs killed since 2021.
An amnesty for XL bullies would mean existing animals were not culled, but owners would be required to register and keep them leashed and muzzled in public, Christine Middlemiss said.
Rishi Sunak announced on Friday that the breed would be banned by the end of the year after it emerged a man in the West Midlands died following an attack on Thursday by dogs suspected to be XL bullies.
Labour and Tories neck and neck in byelection race for Mid Beds, poll says
Survey reveals Labour more likely than Lib Dems to overturn Conservatives’ 25,000 majority in Nadine Dorries’s former seat
Labour and the Conservatives are neck and neck in the battle for the previously safe Tory seat of Mid Bedfordshire, according to a poll that suggests a split “progressive” vote could allow Rishi Sunak’s party to retain the constituency.
Labour and the Liberal Democrats are making a full-tilt effort to win the seat from the Conservatives after the resignation of Nadine Dorries, a close ally of Boris Johnson, who eventually quit after being denied a place on the former prime minister’s resignation honours list.
A new constituency poll seen by the Observer suggests that the Tory vote share in the seat has collapsed, halving from the near 60% that Dorries enjoyed at the last election. However, the Survation poll commissioned by the Labour Together group, which is close to Keir Starmer, has Labour and the Tories on level pegging.
With undecided voters excluded, it puts Labour candidate Alistair Strathern and the Conservative candidate, Festus Akinbusoye, on 29% of the vote each. It would represent a double-digit swing from the Conservatives to Labour since the election. However, the Lib Dem’s Emma Holland-Lindsay is a close third, with 22%.
With undecided voters included, Labour and the Conservatives are tied on 20%, with the Lib Dems on 15%. The poll found that 27% of those intending to vote are still undecided.
Labour and Tories neck and neck in byelection race for Mid Beds, poll says
Survey reveals Labour more likely than Lib Dems to overturn Conservatives’ 25,000 majority in Nadine Dorries’s former seat
Labour and the Conservatives are neck and neck in the battle for the previously safe Tory seat of Mid Bedfordshire, according to a poll that suggests a split “progressive” vote could allow Rishi Sunak’s party to retain the constituency.
Labour and the Liberal Democrats are making a full-tilt effort to win the seat from the Conservatives after the resignation of Nadine Dorries, a close ally of Boris Johnson, who eventually quit after being denied a place on the former prime minister’s resignation honours list.
A new constituency poll seen by the Observer suggests that the Tory vote share in the seat has collapsed, halving from the near 60% that Dorries enjoyed at the last election. However, the Survation poll commissioned by the Labour Together group, which is close to Keir Starmer, has Labour and the Tories on level pegging.
With undecided voters excluded, it puts Labour candidate Alistair Strathern and the Conservative candidate, Festus Akinbusoye, on 29% of the vote each. It would represent a double-digit swing from the Conservatives to Labour since the election. However, the Lib Dem’s Emma Holland-Lindsay is a close third, with 22%.
With undecided voters included, Labour and the Conservatives are tied on 20%, with the Lib Dems on 15%. The poll found that 27% of those intending to vote are still undecided.
Labour and Tories neck and neck in byelection race for Mid Beds, poll says
Survey reveals Labour more likely than Lib Dems to overturn Conservatives’ 25,000 majority in Nadine Dorries’s former seat
Labour and the Conservatives are neck and neck in the battle for the previously safe Tory seat of Mid Bedfordshire, according to a poll that suggests a split “progressive” vote could allow Rishi Sunak’s party to retain the constituency.
Labour and the Liberal Democrats are making a full-tilt effort to win the seat from the Conservatives after the resignation of Nadine Dorries, a close ally of Boris Johnson, who eventually quit after being denied a place on the former prime minister’s resignation honours list.
A new constituency poll seen by the Observer suggests that the Tory vote share in the seat has collapsed, halving from the near 60% that Dorries enjoyed at the last election. However, the Survation poll commissioned by the Labour Together group, which is close to Keir Starmer, has Labour and the Tories on level pegging.
With undecided voters excluded, it puts Labour candidate Alistair Strathern and the Conservative candidate, Festus Akinbusoye, on 29% of the vote each. It would represent a double-digit swing from the Conservatives to Labour since the election. However, the Lib Dem’s Emma Holland-Lindsay is a close third, with 22%.
With undecided voters included, Labour and the Conservatives are tied on 20%, with the Lib Dems on 15%. The poll found that 27% of those intending to vote are still undecided.
Why the hell has Harvey Elliott been booked for "overcelebrating" for going to celebrate the goal in front of the Away (Liverpool) fans?
Seems preposterous to me.
Running up to the opposing team fans and taunting them perhaps should be a yellow, but going to celebrate a goal with your own fans absolutely should not. Ridiculous!
The UK’s chief veterinary officer has stressed there will be an amnesty before a ban on American XL bully dogs, after an expert said the breed was behind almost half of all attacks on humans and dogs killed since 2021.
An amnesty for XL bullies would mean existing animals were not culled, but owners would be required to register and keep them leashed and muzzled in public, Christine Middlemiss said.
Rishi Sunak announced on Friday that the breed would be banned by the end of the year after it emerged a man in the West Midlands died following an attack on Thursday by dogs suspected to be XL bullies.
Just overheard a guy at the corner shop complaining they were coming for his "XLs" and getting commiserated by other customers. He said it was like racial profiling for dogs. Seemed a genial enough chap but I chose not to join the conversation.
I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.
Did he? That is twattish. There are only going to be more videos, defending these dogs will get harder and harder
Even more surprising there are right wing Trumpite voices on Twitter saying America should also ban them. Which is counter-intuitive. I had no idea these dogs are loathed across the pond, even by gun toting types
What's interesting is the 'dogs don't kill people, people kill people' argument that's being put forward here is essentially the same as the one gun toting types deploy on the other side of the pond.
Hardly surprising when these dogs are pretty much the equivalent of a weapon that you are, bizarrely, allowed to show in public.
Lots of dogs are (or can be) bloody dangerous.
My heart rate always goes up when I see one off a lead when out for a country walk, which is probably something the dog senses, but the problem is also the owner because if their dog gives you hassle they normally take any protest from you with remarkably bad grace.
Couple of years later I was walking in the Cornish countryside and a stupid family dog bounded up up me. Massive Great Dane on its hind legs trying to bite my face off and push me over. Easily as big as me
The family…. Laughed. ‘Oh he’s just being friendly’. HE WAS NOT JUST BEING FRIENDLY. I managed to push him off and jump over a gate
This is very typical. Maybe they feel they simply can't say anything else.
Labour and Tories neck and neck in byelection race for Mid Beds, poll says
Survey reveals Labour more likely than Lib Dems to overturn Conservatives’ 25,000 majority in Nadine Dorries’s former seat
Labour and the Conservatives are neck and neck in the battle for the previously safe Tory seat of Mid Bedfordshire, according to a poll that suggests a split “progressive” vote could allow Rishi Sunak’s party to retain the constituency.
Labour and the Liberal Democrats are making a full-tilt effort to win the seat from the Conservatives after the resignation of Nadine Dorries, a close ally of Boris Johnson, who eventually quit after being denied a place on the former prime minister’s resignation honours list.
A new constituency poll seen by the Observer suggests that the Tory vote share in the seat has collapsed, halving from the near 60% that Dorries enjoyed at the last election. However, the Survation poll commissioned by the Labour Together group, which is close to Keir Starmer, has Labour and the Tories on level pegging.
With undecided voters excluded, it puts Labour candidate Alistair Strathern and the Conservative candidate, Festus Akinbusoye, on 29% of the vote each. It would represent a double-digit swing from the Conservatives to Labour since the election. However, the Lib Dem’s Emma Holland-Lindsay is a close third, with 22%.
With undecided voters included, Labour and the Conservatives are tied on 20%, with the Lib Dems on 15%. The poll found that 27% of those intending to vote are still undecided.
I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.
Did he? That is twattish. There are only going to be more videos, defending these dogs will get harder and harder
Even more surprising there are right wing Trumpite voices on Twitter saying America should also ban them. Which is counter-intuitive. I had no idea these dogs are loathed across the pond, even by gun toting types
What's interesting is the 'dogs don't kill people, people kill people' argument that's being put forward here is essentially the same as the one gun toting types deploy on the other side of the pond.
Hardly surprising when these dogs are pretty much the equivalent of a weapon that you are, bizarrely, allowed to show in public.
Lots of dogs are (or can be) bloody dangerous.
My heart rate always goes up when I see one off a lead when out for a country walk, which is probably something the dog senses, but the problem is also the owner because if their dog gives you hassle they normally take any protest from you with remarkably bad grace.
Couple of years later I was walking in the Cornish countryside and a stupid family dog bounded up up me. Massive Great Dane on its hind legs trying to bite my face off and push me over. Easily as big as me
The family…. Laughed. ‘Oh he’s just being friendly’. HE WAS NOT JUST BEING FRIENDLY. I managed to push him off and jump over a gate
This is very typical. Maybe they feel they simply can't say anything else.
“It’s just his way of showing that he likes you.”
I think Airplane spoofed that, as so much else, brilliantly.
Labour and Tories neck and neck in byelection race for Mid Beds, poll says
Survey reveals Labour more likely than Lib Dems to overturn Conservatives’ 25,000 majority in Nadine Dorries’s former seat
Labour and the Conservatives are neck and neck in the battle for the previously safe Tory seat of Mid Bedfordshire, according to a poll that suggests a split “progressive” vote could allow Rishi Sunak’s party to retain the constituency.
Labour and the Liberal Democrats are making a full-tilt effort to win the seat from the Conservatives after the resignation of Nadine Dorries, a close ally of Boris Johnson, who eventually quit after being denied a place on the former prime minister’s resignation honours list.
A new constituency poll seen by the Observer suggests that the Tory vote share in the seat has collapsed, halving from the near 60% that Dorries enjoyed at the last election. However, the Survation poll commissioned by the Labour Together group, which is close to Keir Starmer, has Labour and the Tories on level pegging.
With undecided voters excluded, it puts Labour candidate Alistair Strathern and the Conservative candidate, Festus Akinbusoye, on 29% of the vote each. It would represent a double-digit swing from the Conservatives to Labour since the election. However, the Lib Dem’s Emma Holland-Lindsay is a close third, with 22%.
With undecided voters included, Labour and the Conservatives are tied on 20%, with the Lib Dems on 15%. The poll found that 27% of those intending to vote are still undecided.
Labour and Tories neck and neck in byelection race for Mid Beds, poll says
Survey reveals Labour more likely than Lib Dems to overturn Conservatives’ 25,000 majority in Nadine Dorries’s former seat
Labour and the Conservatives are neck and neck in the battle for the previously safe Tory seat of Mid Bedfordshire, according to a poll that suggests a split “progressive” vote could allow Rishi Sunak’s party to retain the constituency.
Labour and the Liberal Democrats are making a full-tilt effort to win the seat from the Conservatives after the resignation of Nadine Dorries, a close ally of Boris Johnson, who eventually quit after being denied a place on the former prime minister’s resignation honours list.
A new constituency poll seen by the Observer suggests that the Tory vote share in the seat has collapsed, halving from the near 60% that Dorries enjoyed at the last election. However, the Survation poll commissioned by the Labour Together group, which is close to Keir Starmer, has Labour and the Tories on level pegging.
With undecided voters excluded, it puts Labour candidate Alistair Strathern and the Conservative candidate, Festus Akinbusoye, on 29% of the vote each. It would represent a double-digit swing from the Conservatives to Labour since the election. However, the Lib Dem’s Emma Holland-Lindsay is a close third, with 22%.
With undecided voters included, Labour and the Conservatives are tied on 20%, with the Lib Dems on 15%. The poll found that 27% of those intending to vote are still undecided.
At Selby and Uxbridge Reform/Reclaim got about half their poll rating, and the Conservatives did correspondingly better. That probably makes the Conservatives slight favourites here.
Of course, holding the seat on 34% would be an objectively awful result.
I think there is more chance of us winning zero rather than three.
Spread 0.5 - 1.5.
That's extremely cautious and I suspect tending towards a training down expectations post.
If Labour doesn't win Rutherglen, a marginal seat they won in 2017, against the current backdrop in Scotland and in the circumstances of the by-election, that is a really bad performance.
Beyond that, they should win Tamworth based on Selby swing. The local election portents are good for them from that area, and the circumstances of the by-election bad for the Tories. It isn't a gimme, but they are fully justified favourites.
Mid Beds is complex due to all three parties having a sniff at it, but clearly Labour are sufficiently hopeful that they have a decent chance to put resource in.
FWIW I think we'll still win Rutherglen (I know, there was one bad poll, but even then the swing was big enough) and have a good chance in mid-Beds where the Labour effort is massive, but I wonder about Tamworth - a 40-point margin, and little time to prepare. I get daily reminders about the former, but nothing about the latter yet.
Labour and Tories neck and neck in byelection race for Mid Beds, poll says
Survey reveals Labour more likely than Lib Dems to overturn Conservatives’ 25,000 majority in Nadine Dorries’s former seat
Labour and the Conservatives are neck and neck in the battle for the previously safe Tory seat of Mid Bedfordshire, according to a poll that suggests a split “progressive” vote could allow Rishi Sunak’s party to retain the constituency.
Labour and the Liberal Democrats are making a full-tilt effort to win the seat from the Conservatives after the resignation of Nadine Dorries, a close ally of Boris Johnson, who eventually quit after being denied a place on the former prime minister’s resignation honours list.
A new constituency poll seen by the Observer suggests that the Tory vote share in the seat has collapsed, halving from the near 60% that Dorries enjoyed at the last election. However, the Survation poll commissioned by the Labour Together group, which is close to Keir Starmer, has Labour and the Tories on level pegging.
With undecided voters excluded, it puts Labour candidate Alistair Strathern and the Conservative candidate, Festus Akinbusoye, on 29% of the vote each. It would represent a double-digit swing from the Conservatives to Labour since the election. However, the Lib Dem’s Emma Holland-Lindsay is a close third, with 22%.
With undecided voters included, Labour and the Conservatives are tied on 20%, with the Lib Dems on 15%. The poll found that 27% of those intending to vote are still undecided.
"It's a two horse race", as I believe the saying goes.
I'm sure I saw a bar chart based on this poll saying "only the Lib Dems can win here" though...
Which is why that poll will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
It's almost ideal for the Labour equivalent of that to be produced and they will be going through doorsteps in the next 48 hours.
I don't think the poll is as helpful as it could be though. Lab 29, LD 22 is still pretty close all things considered, with a month to go, the LD counter might well be that they are starting from 12% so they have gained more than Lab so far.
Not that I think it is so much about what the party activists do, but in terms of the persuading sufficient numbers of the public that Lab are the best option here it is definitely very helpful, but needs some follow up to nail it.
New Survation poll reported in mid-Beds - Con 29, Lab 29, LD 22. Not sure where the other 20% are going - maybe the Indy, Greens, Reform etc. There's a Labour barchart leaflet already out...
Ah, I see the Observer piece now - Mackey 6, Reform 7.
All down now to whether LibDem voters will be squeezable - and to a lesser extent Reform voters by the Tories. I do think it makes Labour the favourites.
Labour and Tories neck and neck in byelection race for Mid Beds, poll says
Survey reveals Labour more likely than Lib Dems to overturn Conservatives’ 25,000 majority in Nadine Dorries’s former seat
Labour and the Conservatives are neck and neck in the battle for the previously safe Tory seat of Mid Bedfordshire, according to a poll that suggests a split “progressive” vote could allow Rishi Sunak’s party to retain the constituency.
Labour and the Liberal Democrats are making a full-tilt effort to win the seat from the Conservatives after the resignation of Nadine Dorries, a close ally of Boris Johnson, who eventually quit after being denied a place on the former prime minister’s resignation honours list.
A new constituency poll seen by the Observer suggests that the Tory vote share in the seat has collapsed, halving from the near 60% that Dorries enjoyed at the last election. However, the Survation poll commissioned by the Labour Together group, which is close to Keir Starmer, has Labour and the Tories on level pegging.
With undecided voters excluded, it puts Labour candidate Alistair Strathern and the Conservative candidate, Festus Akinbusoye, on 29% of the vote each. It would represent a double-digit swing from the Conservatives to Labour since the election. However, the Lib Dem’s Emma Holland-Lindsay is a close third, with 22%.
With undecided voters included, Labour and the Conservatives are tied on 20%, with the Lib Dems on 15%. The poll found that 27% of those intending to vote are still undecided.
At Selby and Uxbridge Reform/Reclaim got about half their poll rating, and the Conservatives did correspondingly better. That probably makes the Conservatives slight favourites here.
Of course, holding the seat on 34% would be an objectively awful result.
Eh, yes and no. Of course dropping so much in a seat that should be rock solid is by any measure bad, but holding anything at all when you are 20 down in the national polls is still a good result.
Labour and Tories neck and neck in byelection race for Mid Beds, poll says
Survey reveals Labour more likely than Lib Dems to overturn Conservatives’ 25,000 majority in Nadine Dorries’s former seat
Labour and the Conservatives are neck and neck in the battle for the previously safe Tory seat of Mid Bedfordshire, according to a poll that suggests a split “progressive” vote could allow Rishi Sunak’s party to retain the constituency.
Labour and the Liberal Democrats are making a full-tilt effort to win the seat from the Conservatives after the resignation of Nadine Dorries, a close ally of Boris Johnson, who eventually quit after being denied a place on the former prime minister’s resignation honours list.
A new constituency poll seen by the Observer suggests that the Tory vote share in the seat has collapsed, halving from the near 60% that Dorries enjoyed at the last election. However, the Survation poll commissioned by the Labour Together group, which is close to Keir Starmer, has Labour and the Tories on level pegging.
With undecided voters excluded, it puts Labour candidate Alistair Strathern and the Conservative candidate, Festus Akinbusoye, on 29% of the vote each. It would represent a double-digit swing from the Conservatives to Labour since the election. However, the Lib Dem’s Emma Holland-Lindsay is a close third, with 22%.
With undecided voters included, Labour and the Conservatives are tied on 20%, with the Lib Dems on 15%. The poll found that 27% of those intending to vote are still undecided.
At Selby and Uxbridge Reform/Reclaim got about half their poll rating, and the Conservatives did correspondingly better. That probably makes the Conservatives slight favourites here.
Of course, holding the seat on 34% would be an objectively awful result.
But also, the reason this poll was released was to encourage a Lib to Lab squeeze. From that point of view, the figures are almost perfectly calibrated. We normally see it eve of poll from the Lib Dems. Labour's aim here is to ensure that the rival campaigns are strangled at birth, as Big Cyril unfortunately put it
If any one candidate on the anti-Conservative side can do an effective squeeze on the others, they win.
New Survation poll reported in mid-Beds - Con 29 (-30), Lab 29 (+7), LD 22 (+7). Not sure where the other 20% are going - maybe the Indy, Greens, Reform etc. There's a Labour barchart leaflet already out...
It's Lab +7 and LD +10, surely? Not a massive difference, but still.
Minor curiosity - the Survation poll was mostly by phone, but 78 younger voters were polled online instead. I've not seen that done before, and wonder how they selected them.
Labour and Tories neck and neck in byelection race for Mid Beds, poll says
Survey reveals Labour more likely than Lib Dems to overturn Conservatives’ 25,000 majority in Nadine Dorries’s former seat
Labour and the Conservatives are neck and neck in the battle for the previously safe Tory seat of Mid Bedfordshire, according to a poll that suggests a split “progressive” vote could allow Rishi Sunak’s party to retain the constituency.
Labour and the Liberal Democrats are making a full-tilt effort to win the seat from the Conservatives after the resignation of Nadine Dorries, a close ally of Boris Johnson, who eventually quit after being denied a place on the former prime minister’s resignation honours list.
A new constituency poll seen by the Observer suggests that the Tory vote share in the seat has collapsed, halving from the near 60% that Dorries enjoyed at the last election. However, the Survation poll commissioned by the Labour Together group, which is close to Keir Starmer, has Labour and the Tories on level pegging.
With undecided voters excluded, it puts Labour candidate Alistair Strathern and the Conservative candidate, Festus Akinbusoye, on 29% of the vote each. It would represent a double-digit swing from the Conservatives to Labour since the election. However, the Lib Dem’s Emma Holland-Lindsay is a close third, with 22%.
With undecided voters included, Labour and the Conservatives are tied on 20%, with the Lib Dems on 15%. The poll found that 27% of those intending to vote are still undecided.
"It's a two horse race", as I believe the saying goes.
I'm sure I saw a bar chart based on this poll saying "only the Lib Dems can win here" though...
Which is why that poll will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
It's almost ideal for the Labour equivalent of that to be produced and they will be going through doorsteps in the next 48 hours.
I don't think the poll is as helpful as it could be though. Lab 29, LD 22 is still pretty close all things considered, with a month to go, the LD counter might well be that they are starting from 12% so they have gained more than Lab so far.
Not that I think it is so much about what the party activists do, but in terms of the persuading sufficient numbers of the public that Lab are the best option here it is definitely very helpful, but needs some follow up to nail it.
I thought the received wisdom was that the Indie could do well?
Labour and Tories neck and neck in byelection race for Mid Beds, poll says
Survey reveals Labour more likely than Lib Dems to overturn Conservatives’ 25,000 majority in Nadine Dorries’s former seat
Labour and the Conservatives are neck and neck in the battle for the previously safe Tory seat of Mid Bedfordshire, according to a poll that suggests a split “progressive” vote could allow Rishi Sunak’s party to retain the constituency.
Labour and the Liberal Democrats are making a full-tilt effort to win the seat from the Conservatives after the resignation of Nadine Dorries, a close ally of Boris Johnson, who eventually quit after being denied a place on the former prime minister’s resignation honours list.
A new constituency poll seen by the Observer suggests that the Tory vote share in the seat has collapsed, halving from the near 60% that Dorries enjoyed at the last election. However, the Survation poll commissioned by the Labour Together group, which is close to Keir Starmer, has Labour and the Tories on level pegging.
With undecided voters excluded, it puts Labour candidate Alistair Strathern and the Conservative candidate, Festus Akinbusoye, on 29% of the vote each. It would represent a double-digit swing from the Conservatives to Labour since the election. However, the Lib Dem’s Emma Holland-Lindsay is a close third, with 22%.
With undecided voters included, Labour and the Conservatives are tied on 20%, with the Lib Dems on 15%. The poll found that 27% of those intending to vote are still undecided.
At Selby and Uxbridge Reform/Reclaim got about half their poll rating, and the Conservatives did correspondingly better. That probably makes the Conservatives slight favourites here.
Of course, holding the seat on 34% would be an objectively awful result.
But Reform are on 7 in the poll, and LibDems on 22 - I'd think that there will be more tactical voters from the larger poll. Helpful objective quote from Survation "“Were this election to be held tomorrow, Labour’s neck-and-neck polling status with the Conservatives makes a tactical Labour vote look more sensible to defeat the Conservatives here."
New Survation poll reported in mid-Beds - Con 29 (-30), Lab 29 (+7), LD 22 (+7). Not sure where the other 20% are going - maybe the Indy, Greens, Reform etc. There's a Labour barchart leaflet already out...
It's Lab +7 and LD +10, surely? Not a massive difference, but still.
Incidentally, this is where intensive canvassing pays off. Because the whole constituency has been canvassed three times now, Labour should have a good idea of where the LibDem-leaning voters are and can target them with tactical voting leaflets. I'm not convinced that we have anything like that level of information in Tamworth.
Betfair odds are still a bit out of line with the poll but narrowing quickly.
Further on dogs, I don’t recommend country walks in rural Armenia
They have these dogs bred to fight off - and kill - leopards and wolves. And probably Turks and Azerbaijanis. They are absolutely terrifying, they are the size of bears, they are psychopathically aggressive and they could eat a Bully XL for breakfast
No knife could fend them off. You’d need a sub machine gun
This is the problem with breed specific bans. Anyone with one of these will bot be affected by the current moral panic.
There needs to be licensing rules applicable to all breeds, and crosses.
Further on dogs, I don’t recommend country walks in rural Armenia
They have these dogs bred to fight off - and kill - leopards and wolves. And probably Turks and Azerbaijanis. They are absolutely terrifying, they are the size of bears, they are psychopathically aggressive and they could eat a Bully XL for breakfast
No knife could fend them off. You’d need a sub machine gun
This is the problem with breed specific bans. Anyone with one of these will bot be affected by the current moral panic.
There needs to be licensing rules applicable to all breeds, and crosses.
The RSPCA seems to have no problems excluding breeds from their pet insurance.
Labour and Tories neck and neck in byelection race for Mid Beds, poll says
Survey reveals Labour more likely than Lib Dems to overturn Conservatives’ 25,000 majority in Nadine Dorries’s former seat
Labour and the Conservatives are neck and neck in the battle for the previously safe Tory seat of Mid Bedfordshire, according to a poll that suggests a split “progressive” vote could allow Rishi Sunak’s party to retain the constituency.
Labour and the Liberal Democrats are making a full-tilt effort to win the seat from the Conservatives after the resignation of Nadine Dorries, a close ally of Boris Johnson, who eventually quit after being denied a place on the former prime minister’s resignation honours list.
A new constituency poll seen by the Observer suggests that the Tory vote share in the seat has collapsed, halving from the near 60% that Dorries enjoyed at the last election. However, the Survation poll commissioned by the Labour Together group, which is close to Keir Starmer, has Labour and the Tories on level pegging.
With undecided voters excluded, it puts Labour candidate Alistair Strathern and the Conservative candidate, Festus Akinbusoye, on 29% of the vote each. It would represent a double-digit swing from the Conservatives to Labour since the election. However, the Lib Dem’s Emma Holland-Lindsay is a close third, with 22%.
With undecided voters included, Labour and the Conservatives are tied on 20%, with the Lib Dems on 15%. The poll found that 27% of those intending to vote are still undecided.
At Selby and Uxbridge Reform/Reclaim got about half their poll rating, and the Conservatives did correspondingly better. That probably makes the Conservatives slight favourites here.
Of course, holding the seat on 34% would be an objectively awful result.
But also, the reason this poll was released was to encourage a Lib to Lab squeeze. From that point of view, the figures are almost perfectly calibrated. We normally see it eve of poll from the Lib Dems. Labour's aim here is to ensure that the rival campaigns are strangled at birth, as Big Cyril unfortunately put it
If any one candidate on the anti-Conservative side can do an effective squeeze on the others, they win.
That works better if the Lib Dems are a long way behind. This poll shows they have a good chance of winning. Indeed, they've put on significant support compared to the last poll, whereas Labour have stalled.
Labour and Tories neck and neck in byelection race for Mid Beds, poll says
Survey reveals Labour more likely than Lib Dems to overturn Conservatives’ 25,000 majority in Nadine Dorries’s former seat
Labour and the Conservatives are neck and neck in the battle for the previously safe Tory seat of Mid Bedfordshire, according to a poll that suggests a split “progressive” vote could allow Rishi Sunak’s party to retain the constituency.
Labour and the Liberal Democrats are making a full-tilt effort to win the seat from the Conservatives after the resignation of Nadine Dorries, a close ally of Boris Johnson, who eventually quit after being denied a place on the former prime minister’s resignation honours list.
A new constituency poll seen by the Observer suggests that the Tory vote share in the seat has collapsed, halving from the near 60% that Dorries enjoyed at the last election. However, the Survation poll commissioned by the Labour Together group, which is close to Keir Starmer, has Labour and the Tories on level pegging.
With undecided voters excluded, it puts Labour candidate Alistair Strathern and the Conservative candidate, Festus Akinbusoye, on 29% of the vote each. It would represent a double-digit swing from the Conservatives to Labour since the election. However, the Lib Dem’s Emma Holland-Lindsay is a close third, with 22%.
With undecided voters included, Labour and the Conservatives are tied on 20%, with the Lib Dems on 15%. The poll found that 27% of those intending to vote are still undecided.
At Selby and Uxbridge Reform/Reclaim got about half their poll rating, and the Conservatives did correspondingly better. That probably makes the Conservatives slight favourites here.
Of course, holding the seat on 34% would be an objectively awful result.
But Reform are on 7 in the poll, and LibDems on 22 - I'd think that there will be more tactical voters from the larger poll. Helpful objective quote from Survation "“Were this election to be held tomorrow, Labour’s neck-and-neck polling status with the Conservatives makes a tactical Labour vote look more sensible to defeat the Conservatives here."
Lib Dem activists want to win this seat. They aren't going to advise people to vote Labour in the interest of good sportsmanship.
Incidentally, this is where intensive canvassing pays off. Because the whole constituency has been canvassed three times now, Labour should have a good idea of where the LibDem-leaning voters are and can target them with tactical voting leaflets. I'm not convinced that we have anything like that level of information in Tamworth.
Betfair odds are still a bit out of line with the poll but narrowing quickly.
Of course, the LibDems also know where the Labour voters are...
Labour and Tories neck and neck in byelection race for Mid Beds, poll says
Survey reveals Labour more likely than Lib Dems to overturn Conservatives’ 25,000 majority in Nadine Dorries’s former seat
Labour and the Conservatives are neck and neck in the battle for the previously safe Tory seat of Mid Bedfordshire, according to a poll that suggests a split “progressive” vote could allow Rishi Sunak’s party to retain the constituency.
Labour and the Liberal Democrats are making a full-tilt effort to win the seat from the Conservatives after the resignation of Nadine Dorries, a close ally of Boris Johnson, who eventually quit after being denied a place on the former prime minister’s resignation honours list.
A new constituency poll seen by the Observer suggests that the Tory vote share in the seat has collapsed, halving from the near 60% that Dorries enjoyed at the last election. However, the Survation poll commissioned by the Labour Together group, which is close to Keir Starmer, has Labour and the Tories on level pegging.
With undecided voters excluded, it puts Labour candidate Alistair Strathern and the Conservative candidate, Festus Akinbusoye, on 29% of the vote each. It would represent a double-digit swing from the Conservatives to Labour since the election. However, the Lib Dem’s Emma Holland-Lindsay is a close third, with 22%.
With undecided voters included, Labour and the Conservatives are tied on 20%, with the Lib Dems on 15%. The poll found that 27% of those intending to vote are still undecided.
I'd the Tories win with 30% then the parties of the Progressive Alliance need to have a long, hard think.
I think it’s useful to have a vote like this at this stage of the cycle. It doesn’t really matter - the government will still have a large majority regardless of the result - and it allows the Lib Dems and Labour to stress-test tactical voting and gauge where the border should be between Labour and LD target seats.
If Labour wins or comes second after the Tory, that will send a useful message that Home Counties seats where they were clearly second last time should be targets. Whereas if the Lib Dems win and Labour is far behind (which now seems unlikely) that would suggest the yellows are the best tactical option for the GE in similar Home Counties seats.
If the conservatives manage to win, then it’ll be a useful warning shot to the left of centre parties to consider their targeting strategies carefully.
Further on dogs, I don’t recommend country walks in rural Armenia
They have these dogs bred to fight off - and kill - leopards and wolves. And probably Turks and Azerbaijanis. They are absolutely terrifying, they are the size of bears, they are psychopathically aggressive and they could eat a Bully XL for breakfast
No knife could fend them off. You’d need a sub machine gun
This is the problem with breed specific bans. Anyone with one of these will bot be affected by the current moral panic.
There needs to be licensing rules applicable to all breeds, and crosses.
The RSPCA seems to have no problems excluding breeds from their pet insurance.
Sure, but it's commercial. Insurers can decline to insure you if they don't like the look of Rover, that's it, and you have no comeback.
If HMG want to, for instance prosecute you for letting Rover out because he's a dangerous Armenian Goldenbollocks, or put Rover down, or prosecute you for not licensing him, then HMG has to be able to deal with legal defences to the standard of (presumably) criminal law. Edit@ Especially that he isn't an Armenian G. at all. Just looks a bit like one.
BTW does anyone remember how many dogs were put down immediately after the DDA? THere was a bit of an Alpacalypse style stir in the media, though in fairness Geronimo the alpaca was a much more simpatico animal than a pit bull.
I'm not in general a fan of people who make a living out of something, fail, and then make a living out of rubbishing it, including writing a book - but this is quite an interesitng piece all the same:
I'm not in general a fan of people who make a living out of something, fail, and then make a living out of rubbishing it, including writing a book - but this is quite an interesitng piece all the same:
The King & Queen's horse, Desert Hero, bred by her late Majesty QE2, is about to run for the St Leger, the oldest Classic horserace, first run in 1776, an otherwise unremarkable year in which Lord North was prime minister.
The King & Queen's horse, Desert Hero, bred by her late Majesty QE2, is about to run for the St Leger, the oldest Classic horserace, first run in 1776, an otherwise unremarkable year in which Lord North was prime minister.
I'm not in general a fan of people who make a living out of something, fail, and then make a living out of rubbishing it, including writing a book - but this is quite an interesitng piece all the same:
Labour and Tories neck and neck in byelection race for Mid Beds, poll says
Survey reveals Labour more likely than Lib Dems to overturn Conservatives’ 25,000 majority in Nadine Dorries’s former seat
Labour and the Conservatives are neck and neck in the battle for the previously safe Tory seat of Mid Bedfordshire, according to a poll that suggests a split “progressive” vote could allow Rishi Sunak’s party to retain the constituency.
Labour and the Liberal Democrats are making a full-tilt effort to win the seat from the Conservatives after the resignation of Nadine Dorries, a close ally of Boris Johnson, who eventually quit after being denied a place on the former prime minister’s resignation honours list.
A new constituency poll seen by the Observer suggests that the Tory vote share in the seat has collapsed, halving from the near 60% that Dorries enjoyed at the last election. However, the Survation poll commissioned by the Labour Together group, which is close to Keir Starmer, has Labour and the Tories on level pegging.
With undecided voters excluded, it puts Labour candidate Alistair Strathern and the Conservative candidate, Festus Akinbusoye, on 29% of the vote each. It would represent a double-digit swing from the Conservatives to Labour since the election. However, the Lib Dem’s Emma Holland-Lindsay is a close third, with 22%.
With undecided voters included, Labour and the Conservatives are tied on 20%, with the Lib Dems on 15%. The poll found that 27% of those intending to vote are still undecided.
I'd the Tories win with 30% then the parties of the Progressive Alliance need to have a long, hard think.
What is this Progressive Alliance of which you speak? There does not seem to be much love lost between Labour and the Lib Dems.
It would be very reasonable for all the hitherto loyal Conservative voters who detest the incompetent cheats that Johnson brought in to vote Lib Dem to keep Labour out. Did somebody say that currently uncommitted former Tories now make up 27% of the electorate in Mid Beds?
I think it’s useful to have a vote like this at this stage of the cycle. It doesn’t really matter - the government will still have a large majority regardless of the result - and it allows the Lib Dems and Labour to stress-test tactical voting and gauge where the border should be between Labour and LD target seats.
If Labour wins or comes second after the Tory, that will send a useful message that Home Counties seats where they were clearly second last time should be targets. Whereas if the Lib Dems win and Labour is far behind (which now seems unlikely) that would suggest the yellows are the best tactical option for the GE in similar Home Counties seats.
If the conservatives manage to win, then it’ll be a useful warning shot to the left of centre parties to consider their targeting strategies carefully.
Yes, I think that's fair comment (and Tim S is I think a LibDem while I'm Labour).
In 2019, I did virtually nothing in my own seat, where we're third, in favour of helping a marginal. It's of course harder when there's just one by-election - nobody likes sitting on their hands even if it's the right thing to do.
So for what it is worth I have had the following feed back from Mid Beds from an experienced PPC in a top Lib Dems target seat who was there on Friday:
The independent thinks he is going to win. Nobody else does The Tory vote had collapsed but they don't know who to vote for Labour have consolidated their support but the soft Tory vote does not want to vote for them. They are not moving. There is a huge opportunity for the LDs but they need to convince the soft Tories to vote for them. At the moment the LDs are not getting the Labour vote
Conclusion: Anything could happen, but Tories coming 3rd is not inconceivable. Tending to think the LDs have the best opportunity but I'm biased
"Anyone who wants to get from Africa to Poland goes to our embassy, buys a stamped visa at a special stand, fills in their details and off they go! PiS [governing party] migration policy," wrote Donald Tusk, the leader of the opposition Civic Platform party, on X (formerly Twitter).
With regard to the header photo, perhaps @ydoethur can advise on whether, in the entire history of British electoral politics, there has ever been a party that has not used the slogan, It's Time for Change.
Trump went with “Promises Made Promises Kept”… OK, that’s not British.
The Tories in 1997 had “You Can Only Be Sure With The Conservatives”.
"New Labour, New Danger".
Well, that’s still about a time for change. It’s a new danger, not an old danger.
Mr. Abode, potentially. However, it's worth remembering that Mercedes at their recent height also had one year when they were inexplicably slow around Singapore.
"Anyone who wants to get from Africa to Poland goes to our embassy, buys a stamped visa at a special stand, fills in their details and off they go! PiS [governing party] migration policy," wrote Donald Tusk, the leader of the opposition Civic Platform party, on X (formerly Twitter).
Mr. Abode, potentially. However, it's worth remembering that Mercedes at their recent height also had one year when they were inexplicably slow around Singapore.
But oddly the bulls have been good at Hungary, Monaco, Baku…
So for what it is worth I have had the following feed back from Mid Beds from an experienced PPC in a top Lib Dems target seat who was there on Friday:
The independent thinks he is going to win. Nobody else does The Tory vote had collapsed but they don't know who to vote for Labour have consolidated their support but the soft Tory vote does not want to vote for them. They are not moving. There is a huge opportunity for the LDs but they need to convince the soft Tories to vote for them. At the moment the LDs are not getting the Labour vote
Conclusion: Anything could happen, but Tories coming 3rd is not inconceivable. Tending to think the LDs have the best opportunity but I'm biased
I suspect it will be LD who win. It's always easier for unhappy CON to vote for Liberal/LD than LAB. By election history since the War tells us this.
Probably a 1 year job for the winning LD candidate!
"Anyone who wants to get from Africa to Poland goes to our embassy, buys a stamped visa at a special stand, fills in their details and off they go! PiS [governing party] migration policy," wrote Donald Tusk, the leader of the opposition Civic Platform party, on X (formerly Twitter).
"Anyone who wants to get from Africa to Poland goes to our embassy, buys a stamped visa at a special stand, fills in their details and off they go! PiS [governing party] migration policy," wrote Donald Tusk, the leader of the opposition Civic Platform party, on X (formerly Twitter).
"Anyone who wants to get from Africa to Poland goes to our embassy, buys a stamped visa at a special stand, fills in their details and off they go! PiS [governing party] migration policy," wrote Donald Tusk, the leader of the opposition Civic Platform party, on X (formerly Twitter).
I remember when Donald Tusk was idolised as the ideal statesman by various PBers.
It seems he's now race baiting about immigrants.
Poland has a right-wing Government that demonises asylum seekers (and the EU’s role in trying to accommodate them), while also encouraging record high immigration, but never talking about that. It’s a strange situation. It’s very hard from the UK to get your head around how that makes sense.
Mid-Beds: I’ve previously said a LibDem win was most likely. On the new poll, I’d now say a Labour win is most likely. The 2:1 on Labour available looks attractive.
But any of the top 3 parties is a plausible result.
"Anyone who wants to get from Africa to Poland goes to our embassy, buys a stamped visa at a special stand, fills in their details and off they go! PiS [governing party] migration policy," wrote Donald Tusk, the leader of the opposition Civic Platform party, on X (formerly Twitter).
"Anyone who wants to get from Africa to Poland goes to our embassy, buys a stamped visa at a special stand, fills in their details and off they go! PiS [governing party] migration policy," wrote Donald Tusk, the leader of the opposition Civic Platform party, on X (formerly Twitter).
I remember when Donald Tusk was idolised as the ideal statesman by various PBers.
It seems he's now race baiting about immigrants.
I think it was more that Boris, DD and Frosty were cringingly awful in comparison.
They weren't the best but they were Castlereagh, Disraeli and Curzon compared to the disasters that were Blair, Brown and Cameron's EU negotiating.
Hot take alert there.
The stakes were way lower for Blair, Brown and Cameron. And of course Brexiteers judge them by brexiteer KPIs. On which point Frost and Co really buggered up.
Blair took the UK through greater integration, which from my point of view was great. A shame we didn’t join the Euro and Schengen, but hopefully next time we will. Schengen in particular is a no brainer.
"Anyone who wants to get from Africa to Poland goes to our embassy, buys a stamped visa at a special stand, fills in their details and off they go! PiS [governing party] migration policy," wrote Donald Tusk, the leader of the opposition Civic Platform party, on X (formerly Twitter).
So for what it is worth I have had the following feed back from Mid Beds from an experienced PPC in a top Lib Dems target seat who was there on Friday:
The independent thinks he is going to win. Nobody else does The Tory vote had collapsed but they don't know who to vote for Labour have consolidated their support but the soft Tory vote does not want to vote for them. They are not moving. There is a huge opportunity for the LDs but they need to convince the soft Tories to vote for them. At the moment the LDs are not getting the Labour vote
Conclusion: Anything could happen, but Tories coming 3rd is not inconceivable. Tending to think the LDs have the best opportunity but I'm biased
I suspect it will be LD who win. It's always easier for unhappy CON to vote for Liberal/LD than LAB. By election history since the War tells us this.
Probably a 1 year job for the winning LD candidate!
I agree with all of that and in particular the LDs difficulty in holding it if they win. It is much much harder for the LDs to win though if there is no tactical voting from Labour so it is not inconceivable that the Tory vote goes to the LDs but the Tories hold on or Lab just win with the Tory vote dropping but the LD vote not going up enough.
However I think you are right and the soft Tory vote will enable the LDs to win even without the Lab tactical vote.
So for what it is worth I have had the following feed back from Mid Beds from an experienced PPC in a top Lib Dems target seat who was there on Friday:
The independent thinks he is going to win. Nobody else does The Tory vote had collapsed but they don't know who to vote for Labour have consolidated their support but the soft Tory vote does not want to vote for them. They are not moving. There is a huge opportunity for the LDs but they need to convince the soft Tories to vote for them. At the moment the LDs are not getting the Labour vote
Conclusion: Anything could happen, but Tories coming 3rd is not inconceivable. Tending to think the LDs have the best opportunity but I'm biased
I suspect it will be LD who win. It's always easier for unhappy CON to vote for Liberal/LD than LAB. By election history since the War tells us this.
Probably a 1 year job for the winning LD candidate!
I agree with all of that and in particular the LDs difficulty in holding it if they win. It is much much harder for the LDs to win though if there is no tactical voting from Labour so it is not inconceivable that the Tory vote goes to the LDs but the Tories hold on or Lab just win with the Tory vote dropping but the LD vote not going up enough.
However I think you are right and the soft Tory vote will enable the LDs to win even without the Lab tactical vote.
Question is what proportion of those former/annoyed Tory voters can be arsed to actually turn out to vote for LibDems. I suspect not as many as the LibDems might hope.
So for what it is worth I have had the following feed back from Mid Beds from an experienced PPC in a top Lib Dems target seat who was there on Friday:
The independent thinks he is going to win. Nobody else does The Tory vote had collapsed but they don't know who to vote for Labour have consolidated their support but the soft Tory vote does not want to vote for them. They are not moving. There is a huge opportunity for the LDs but they need to convince the soft Tories to vote for them. At the moment the LDs are not getting the Labour vote
Conclusion: Anything could happen, but Tories coming 3rd is not inconceivable. Tending to think the LDs have the best opportunity but I'm biased
I suspect it will be LD who win. It's always easier for unhappy CON to vote for Liberal/LD than LAB. By election history since the War tells us this.
Probably a 1 year job for the winning LD candidate!
I agree with all of that and in particular the LDs difficulty in holding it if they win. It is much much harder for the LDs to win though if there is no tactical voting from Labour so it is not inconceivable that the Tory vote goes to the LDs but the Tories hold on or Lab just win with the Tory vote dropping but the LD vote not going up enough.
However I think you are right and the soft Tory vote will enable the LDs to win even without the Lab tactical vote.
Question is what proportion of those former/annoyed Tory voters can be arsed to actually turn out to vote for LibDems. I suspect not as many as the LibDems might hope.
Given half the previous Conservative vote has abandoned the party, I think you've got a lot more to worry about than whether the annoyed, angry and disillusioned will vote LD, Labour or stay at home.
"Anyone who wants to get from Africa to Poland goes to our embassy, buys a stamped visa at a special stand, fills in their details and off they go! PiS [governing party] migration policy," wrote Donald Tusk, the leader of the opposition Civic Platform party, on X (formerly Twitter).
I remember when Donald Tusk was idolised as the ideal statesman by various PBers.
It seems he's now race baiting about immigrants.
I think it was more that Boris, DD and Frosty were cringingly awful in comparison.
They weren't the best but they were Castlereagh, Disraeli and Curzon compared to the disasters that were Blair, Brown and Cameron's EU negotiating.
Hot take alert there.
The stakes were way lower for Blair, Brown and Cameron. And of course Brexiteers judge them by brexiteer KPIs. On which point Frost and Co really buggered up.
Blair took the UK through greater integration, which from my point of view was great. A shame we didn’t join the Euro and Schengen, but hopefully next time we will. Schengen in particular is a no brainer.
The 20 years of negotiating failures with the EU set the grounds for the Leave vote.
So the stakes were high for Blair, Brown and Cameron but they were too arrogantly stupid to realise it.
So for what it is worth I have had the following feed back from Mid Beds from an experienced PPC in a top Lib Dems target seat who was there on Friday:
The independent thinks he is going to win. Nobody else does The Tory vote had collapsed but they don't know who to vote for Labour have consolidated their support but the soft Tory vote does not want to vote for them. They are not moving. There is a huge opportunity for the LDs but they need to convince the soft Tories to vote for them. At the moment the LDs are not getting the Labour vote
Conclusion: Anything could happen, but Tories coming 3rd is not inconceivable. Tending to think the LDs have the best opportunity but I'm biased
I suspect it will be LD who win. It's always easier for unhappy CON to vote for Liberal/LD than LAB. By election history since the War tells us this.
Probably a 1 year job for the winning LD candidate!
I agree with all of that and in particular the LDs difficulty in holding it if they win. It is much much harder for the LDs to win though if there is no tactical voting from Labour so it is not inconceivable that the Tory vote goes to the LDs but the Tories hold on or Lab just win with the Tory vote dropping but the LD vote not going up enough.
However I think you are right and the soft Tory vote will enable the LDs to win even without the Lab tactical vote.
Question is what proportion of those former/annoyed Tory voters can be arsed to actually turn out to vote for LibDems. I suspect not as many as the LibDems might hope.
Given half the previous Conservative vote has abandoned the party, I think you've got a lot more to worry about than whether the annoyed, angry and disillusioned will vote LD, Labour or stay at home.
We're getting a bit blase about mega by-election swings again. Tamworth and Mid Beds are both the sort of seats where, even with a General Election losing swing, the Conservatives ought to be able to hold on. If not, we're in Colourful Analogy territory.
So for what it is worth I have had the following feed back from Mid Beds from an experienced PPC in a top Lib Dems target seat who was there on Friday:
The independent thinks he is going to win. Nobody else does The Tory vote had collapsed but they don't know who to vote for Labour have consolidated their support but the soft Tory vote does not want to vote for them. They are not moving. There is a huge opportunity for the LDs but they need to convince the soft Tories to vote for them. At the moment the LDs are not getting the Labour vote
Conclusion: Anything could happen, but Tories coming 3rd is not inconceivable. Tending to think the LDs have the best opportunity but I'm biased
I suspect it will be LD who win. It's always easier for unhappy CON to vote for Liberal/LD than LAB. By election history since the War tells us this.
Probably a 1 year job for the winning LD candidate!
I agree with all of that and in particular the LDs difficulty in holding it if they win. It is much much harder for the LDs to win though if there is no tactical voting from Labour so it is not inconceivable that the Tory vote goes to the LDs but the Tories hold on or Lab just win with the Tory vote dropping but the LD vote not going up enough.
However I think you are right and the soft Tory vote will enable the LDs to win even without the Lab tactical vote.
Question is what proportion of those former/annoyed Tory voters can be arsed to actually turn out to vote for LibDems. I suspect not as many as the LibDems might hope.
Yep that is exactly the situation. The feedback was moving the ones they hope will vote for them to being probables/definites. Don't think they are complacent. The other possibility is squeezing Labour which doesn't seem on at the moment.
@Leon. Sorry been out all day, but you responded to my post where I said having a dog gets you to meet lots of people and you replied with, yes but only other dog owners.
Not true. If you have a cute dog, like we have, you get a lot of attention from lots of non dog owners. In particular young ladies who go soppy over a cute playful dog..
"Anyone who wants to get from Africa to Poland goes to our embassy, buys a stamped visa at a special stand, fills in their details and off they go! PiS [governing party] migration policy," wrote Donald Tusk, the leader of the opposition Civic Platform party, on X (formerly Twitter).
The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years
Doesn’t look good for him
However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug
Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)
One thing we should remember with Tamworth is not only has Pincher been a terrible MP and acute embarrassment to the seat, but he is very far from the only sex offender in the local Tory party.
That coupled with ongoing issues around their candidate may prove costly for them.
Tamworth is a seat the Tories should not lose, but so was Oswestry. I think Labour have a decent shout.
So for what it is worth I have had the following feed back from Mid Beds from an experienced PPC in a top Lib Dems target seat who was there on Friday:
The independent thinks he is going to win. Nobody else does The Tory vote had collapsed but they don't know who to vote for Labour have consolidated their support but the soft Tory vote does not want to vote for them. They are not moving. There is a huge opportunity for the LDs but they need to convince the soft Tories to vote for them. At the moment the LDs are not getting the Labour vote
Conclusion: Anything could happen, but Tories coming 3rd is not inconceivable. Tending to think the LDs have the best opportunity but I'm biased
I suspect it will be LD who win. It's always easier for unhappy CON to vote for Liberal/LD than LAB. By election history since the War tells us this.
Probably a 1 year job for the winning LD candidate!
I agree with all of that and in particular the LDs difficulty in holding it if they win. It is much much harder for the LDs to win though if there is no tactical voting from Labour so it is not inconceivable that the Tory vote goes to the LDs but the Tories hold on or Lab just win with the Tory vote dropping but the LD vote not going up enough.
However I think you are right and the soft Tory vote will enable the LDs to win even without the Lab tactical vote.
Question is what proportion of those former/annoyed Tory voters can be arsed to actually turn out to vote for LibDems. I suspect not as many as the LibDems might hope.
Given half the previous Conservative vote has abandoned the party, I think you've got a lot more to worry about than whether the annoyed, angry and disillusioned will vote LD, Labour or stay at home.
We're getting a bit blase about mega by-election swings again. Tamworth and Mid Beds are both the sort of seats where, even with a General Election losing swing, the Conservatives ought to be able to hold on. If not, we're in Colourful Analogy territory.
Indeed, Tamworth is for example is the Conservatives' 311th most marginal seat out of 365 seats won in December 2019. IF Labour win it, they almost certainly won't hold it but winning it forces the Conservatives to divert more resources back into that seat than they might otherwise done so.
For the LDs, winning a seat means 24-48 hours in the media spotlight which can only help after years in obscurity. It gets Davey on to the tv screens and while most people still won't know who he is, perhaps a few more will not only see who he is but listen to what he has to say.
That basically is what all the hours and days and weeks of work to win a seat represents - the chance to get noticed, the chance to be heard, the oxygen of publicity.
So why does US government work better at a state level than a national level ?
And is that pattern followed in other countries ?
I'm not sure it necessarily means it works better. They can take credit for their successes, and blame the national government for everything else. Ring any bells?
So for what it is worth I have had the following feed back from Mid Beds from an experienced PPC in a top Lib Dems target seat who was there on Friday:
The independent thinks he is going to win. Nobody else does The Tory vote had collapsed but they don't know who to vote for Labour have consolidated their support but the soft Tory vote does not want to vote for them. They are not moving. There is a huge opportunity for the LDs but they need to convince the soft Tories to vote for them. At the moment the LDs are not getting the Labour vote
Conclusion: Anything could happen, but Tories coming 3rd is not inconceivable. Tending to think the LDs have the best opportunity but I'm biased
I suspect it will be LD who win. It's always easier for unhappy CON to vote for Liberal/LD than LAB. By election history since the War tells us this.
Probably a 1 year job for the winning LD candidate!
I agree with all of that and in particular the LDs difficulty in holding it if they win. It is much much harder for the LDs to win though if there is no tactical voting from Labour so it is not inconceivable that the Tory vote goes to the LDs but the Tories hold on or Lab just win with the Tory vote dropping but the LD vote not going up enough.
However I think you are right and the soft Tory vote will enable the LDs to win even without the Lab tactical vote.
Question is what proportion of those former/annoyed Tory voters can be arsed to actually turn out to vote for LibDems. I suspect not as many as the LibDems might hope.
Given half the previous Conservative vote has abandoned the party, I think you've got a lot more to worry about than whether the annoyed, angry and disillusioned will vote LD, Labour or stay at home.
We're getting a bit blase about mega by-election swings again. Tamworth and Mid Beds are both the sort of seats where, even with a General Election losing swing, the Conservatives ought to be able to hold on. If not, we're in Colourful Analogy territory.
Indeed, Tamworth is for example is the Conservatives' 311th most marginal seat out of 365 seats won in December 2019. IF Labour win it, they almost certainly won't hold it but winning it forces the Conservatives to divert more resources back into that seat than they might otherwise done so.
For the LDs, winning a seat means 24-48 hours in the media spotlight which can only help after years in obscurity. It gets Davey on to the tv screens and while most people still won't know who he is, perhaps a few more will not only see who he is but listen to what he has to say.
That basically is what all the hours and days and weeks of work to win a seat represents - the chance to get noticed, the chance to be heard, the oxygen of publicity.
The LibDems problem isn't the voters not knowing who Davey is. Their problem is the voters not knowing what they are. If they are an obvious "kick Bishop Brennan up the arse" candidate in a by-election, that is one thing. But in the General they look likely to be a minor coalition party for Labour, behind the SNP and all that might entail.
Labour and Tories neck and neck in byelection race for Mid Beds, poll says
Survey reveals Labour more likely than Lib Dems to overturn Conservatives’ 25,000 majority in Nadine Dorries’s former seat
Labour and the Conservatives are neck and neck in the battle for the previously safe Tory seat of Mid Bedfordshire, according to a poll that suggests a split “progressive” vote could allow Rishi Sunak’s party to retain the constituency.
Labour and the Liberal Democrats are making a full-tilt effort to win the seat from the Conservatives after the resignation of Nadine Dorries, a close ally of Boris Johnson, who eventually quit after being denied a place on the former prime minister’s resignation honours list.
A new constituency poll seen by the Observer suggests that the Tory vote share in the seat has collapsed, halving from the near 60% that Dorries enjoyed at the last election. However, the Survation poll commissioned by the Labour Together group, which is close to Keir Starmer, has Labour and the Tories on level pegging.
With undecided voters excluded, it puts Labour candidate Alistair Strathern and the Conservative candidate, Festus Akinbusoye, on 29% of the vote each. It would represent a double-digit swing from the Conservatives to Labour since the election. However, the Lib Dem’s Emma Holland-Lindsay is a close third, with 22%.
With undecided voters included, Labour and the Conservatives are tied on 20%, with the Lib Dems on 15%. The poll found that 27% of those intending to vote are still undecided.
The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years
Doesn’t look good for him
However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug
Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)
I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.
A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
Labour and Tories neck and neck in byelection race for Mid Beds, poll says
Survey reveals Labour more likely than Lib Dems to overturn Conservatives’ 25,000 majority in Nadine Dorries’s former seat
Labour and the Conservatives are neck and neck in the battle for the previously safe Tory seat of Mid Bedfordshire, according to a poll that suggests a split “progressive” vote could allow Rishi Sunak’s party to retain the constituency.
Labour and the Liberal Democrats are making a full-tilt effort to win the seat from the Conservatives after the resignation of Nadine Dorries, a close ally of Boris Johnson, who eventually quit after being denied a place on the former prime minister’s resignation honours list.
A new constituency poll seen by the Observer suggests that the Tory vote share in the seat has collapsed, halving from the near 60% that Dorries enjoyed at the last election. However, the Survation poll commissioned by the Labour Together group, which is close to Keir Starmer, has Labour and the Tories on level pegging.
With undecided voters excluded, it puts Labour candidate Alistair Strathern and the Conservative candidate, Festus Akinbusoye, on 29% of the vote each. It would represent a double-digit swing from the Conservatives to Labour since the election. However, the Lib Dem’s Emma Holland-Lindsay is a close third, with 22%.
With undecided voters included, Labour and the Conservatives are tied on 20%, with the Lib Dems on 15%. The poll found that 27% of those intending to vote are still undecided.
@Leon. Sorry been out all day, but you responded to my post where I said having a dog gets you to meet lots of people and you replied with, yes but only other dog owners.
Not true. If you have a cute dog, like we have, you get a lot of attention from lots of non dog owners. In particular young ladies who go soppy over a cute playful dog..
Classic strategy of at least one serial murderer, mind. (a) pooch is fine camouflage and a good excuse for being out and about at night (b) acts as bait.
Edit: I hasten to add that I don't think you are one! And it reinforces your point very well indeed.
One thing we should remember with Tamworth is not only has Pincher been a terrible MP and acute embarrassment to the seat, but he is very far from the only sex offender in the local Tory party.
That coupled with ongoing issues around their candidate may prove costly for them.
Tamworth is a seat the Tories should not lose, but so was Oswestry. I think Labour have a decent shout.
Given the exceptional concentration of the pro-bully petition in Tamworth, I was actually wondering if it would be that much worse for the Tories, till SKS came out with his anti-bully statement earlier on.
The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years
Doesn’t look good for him
However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug
Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)
I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.
A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
Yes. Extremely messy. If there is evidence and there are willing witnesses let it go to court
Otherwise it is disquieting
I’m not defending Brand, he seems at the least to be highly sexually predatory. But that is not a crime per se
He reminds me psychologically and visually quite overtly of Rasputin
So for what it is worth I have had the following feed back from Mid Beds from an experienced PPC in a top Lib Dems target seat who was there on Friday:
The independent thinks he is going to win. Nobody else does The Tory vote had collapsed but they don't know who to vote for Labour have consolidated their support but the soft Tory vote does not want to vote for them. They are not moving. There is a huge opportunity for the LDs but they need to convince the soft Tories to vote for them. At the moment the LDs are not getting the Labour vote
Conclusion: Anything could happen, but Tories coming 3rd is not inconceivable. Tending to think the LDs have the best opportunity but I'm biased
I suspect it will be LD who win. It's always easier for unhappy CON to vote for Liberal/LD than LAB. By election history since the War tells us this.
Probably a 1 year job for the winning LD candidate!
I agree with all of that and in particular the LDs difficulty in holding it if they win. It is much much harder for the LDs to win though if there is no tactical voting from Labour so it is not inconceivable that the Tory vote goes to the LDs but the Tories hold on or Lab just win with the Tory vote dropping but the LD vote not going up enough.
However I think you are right and the soft Tory vote will enable the LDs to win even without the Lab tactical vote.
Question is what proportion of those former/annoyed Tory voters can be arsed to actually turn out to vote for LibDems. I suspect not as many as the LibDems might hope.
Given half the previous Conservative vote has abandoned the party, I think you've got a lot more to worry about than whether the annoyed, angry and disillusioned will vote LD, Labour or stay at home.
We're getting a bit blase about mega by-election swings again. Tamworth and Mid Beds are both the sort of seats where, even with a General Election losing swing, the Conservatives ought to be able to hold on. If not, we're in Colourful Analogy territory.
Indeed, Tamworth is for example is the Conservatives' 311th most marginal seat out of 365 seats won in December 2019. IF Labour win it, they almost certainly won't hold it but winning it forces the Conservatives to divert more resources back into that seat than they might otherwise done so.
For the LDs, winning a seat means 24-48 hours in the media spotlight which can only help after years in obscurity. It gets Davey on to the tv screens and while most people still won't know who he is, perhaps a few more will not only see who he is but listen to what he has to say.
That basically is what all the hours and days and weeks of work to win a seat represents - the chance to get noticed, the chance to be heard, the oxygen of publicity.
The LibDems problem isn't the voters not knowing who Davey is. Their problem is the voters not knowing what they are. If they are an obvious "kick Bishop Brennan up the arse" candidate in a by-election, that is one thing. But in the General they look likely to be a minor coalition party for Labour, behind the SNP and all that might entail.
That's all a bit premature to be honest but it's clearly going to be a Conservative "attack line" as it always has been. Vote LD, get Labour or something similar. Didn't make any difference in 1997 of course and if the electorate is determined to give the Conservatives a "kick up the arse" at the next GE, it won't matter then either.
For the LDs, it's about those 30-50 seats where they start a clear if often distant second and whether a combination of Conservative switching, Conservative abstention and Labour tactical voting can get the candidate across the line.
Labour and Tories neck and neck in byelection race for Mid Beds, poll says
Survey reveals Labour more likely than Lib Dems to overturn Conservatives’ 25,000 majority in Nadine Dorries’s former seat
Labour and the Conservatives are neck and neck in the battle for the previously safe Tory seat of Mid Bedfordshire, according to a poll that suggests a split “progressive” vote could allow Rishi Sunak’s party to retain the constituency.
Labour and the Liberal Democrats are making a full-tilt effort to win the seat from the Conservatives after the resignation of Nadine Dorries, a close ally of Boris Johnson, who eventually quit after being denied a place on the former prime minister’s resignation honours list.
A new constituency poll seen by the Observer suggests that the Tory vote share in the seat has collapsed, halving from the near 60% that Dorries enjoyed at the last election. However, the Survation poll commissioned by the Labour Together group, which is close to Keir Starmer, has Labour and the Tories on level pegging.
With undecided voters excluded, it puts Labour candidate Alistair Strathern and the Conservative candidate, Festus Akinbusoye, on 29% of the vote each. It would represent a double-digit swing from the Conservatives to Labour since the election. However, the Lib Dem’s Emma Holland-Lindsay is a close third, with 22%.
With undecided voters included, Labour and the Conservatives are tied on 20%, with the Lib Dems on 15%. The poll found that 27% of those intending to vote are still undecided.
The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years
Doesn’t look good for him
However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug
Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)
I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.
A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
But also... The allegations were about things that may have happened a decade and a half ago, that those in the know knew... and yet they happened, without a response when it would have been useful. (And to be clear, I'm thinking of the others around, those in the know, not the victims.)
It's harder to pass off as the bad old days, either, since it's too recent for that. I'd like to hope things were better now, but is that just a hope?
Comments
I would also be very careful with any dog and children under 5, particularly if the dog doesn't know them well. Even a nip from play can be traumatic.
Maybe that should be the only unregulated one.
Survey reveals Labour more likely than Lib Dems to overturn Conservatives’ 25,000 majority in Nadine Dorries’s former seat
Labour and the Conservatives are neck and neck in the battle for the previously safe Tory seat of Mid Bedfordshire, according to a poll that suggests a split “progressive” vote could allow Rishi Sunak’s party to retain the constituency.
Labour and the Liberal Democrats are making a full-tilt effort to win the seat from the Conservatives after the resignation of Nadine Dorries, a close ally of Boris Johnson, who eventually quit after being denied a place on the former prime minister’s resignation honours list.
A new constituency poll seen by the Observer suggests that the Tory vote share in the seat has collapsed, halving from the near 60% that Dorries enjoyed at the last election. However, the Survation poll commissioned by the Labour Together group, which is close to Keir Starmer, has Labour and the Tories on level pegging.
With undecided voters excluded, it puts Labour candidate Alistair Strathern and the Conservative candidate, Festus Akinbusoye, on 29% of the vote each. It would represent a double-digit swing from the Conservatives to Labour since the election. However, the Lib Dem’s Emma Holland-Lindsay is a close third, with 22%.
With undecided voters included, Labour and the Conservatives are tied on 20%, with the Lib Dems on 15%. The poll found that 27% of those intending to vote are still undecided.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/sep/16/labour-tories-neck-and-neck-mid-bedfordshire-race-poll-nadine-dorries
The UK’s chief veterinary officer has stressed there will be an amnesty before a ban on American XL bully dogs, after an expert said the breed was behind almost half of all attacks on humans and dogs killed since 2021.
An amnesty for XL bullies would mean existing animals were not culled, but owners would be required to register and keep them leashed and muzzled in public, Christine Middlemiss said.
Rishi Sunak announced on Friday that the breed would be banned by the end of the year after it emerged a man in the West Midlands died following an attack on Thursday by dogs suspected to be XL bullies.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/sep/16/no-cull-american-xl-bully-dogs-uk-despite-ban-new-rules
Good to get another three points but do we need to give the Opposition the first goal every game? Be less stressful not to do that.
Seems preposterous to me.
Running up to the opposing team fans and taunting them perhaps should be a yellow, but going to celebrate a goal with your own fans absolutely should not. Ridiculous!
It's almost ideal for the Labour equivalent of that to be produced and they will be going through doorsteps in the next 48 hours.
Of course, holding the seat on 34% would be an objectively awful result.
Not that I think it is so much about what the party activists do, but in terms of the persuading sufficient numbers of the public that Lab are the best option here it is definitely very helpful, but needs some follow up to nail it.
Ah, I see the Observer piece now - Mackey 6, Reform 7.
All down now to whether LibDem voters will be squeezable - and to a lesser extent Reform voters by the Tories. I do think it makes Labour the favourites.
If any one candidate on the anti-Conservative side can do an effective squeeze on the others, they win.
They are not likely to win the others in a GE or indeed need to. So it's a nice bonus for them to win in a by election but that's all.
Betfair odds are still a bit out of line with the poll but narrowing quickly.
There needs to be licensing rules applicable to all breeds, and crosses.
Lib Dem activists want to win this seat. They aren't going to advise people to vote Labour in the interest of good sportsmanship.
If Labour wins or comes second after the Tory, that will send a useful message that Home Counties seats where they were clearly second last time should be targets. Whereas if the Lib Dems win and Labour is far behind (which now seems unlikely) that would suggest the yellows are the best tactical option for the GE in similar Home Counties seats.
If the conservatives manage to win, then it’ll be a useful warning shot to the left of centre parties to consider their targeting strategies carefully.
If HMG want to, for instance prosecute you for letting Rover out because he's a dangerous Armenian Goldenbollocks, or put Rover down, or prosecute you for not licensing him, then HMG has to be able to deal with legal defences to the standard of (presumably) criminal law. Edit@ Especially that he isn't an Armenian G. at all. Just looks a bit like one.
BTW does anyone remember how many dogs were put down immediately after the DDA? THere was a bit of an Alpacalypse style stir in the media, though in fairness Geronimo the alpaca was a much more simpatico animal than a pit bull.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/sep/16/rory-stewart-tory-mp-decade-incompetent
Mildly annoyed at myself for not backing Sainz/Leclerc to win the race now, but there we are.
2nd Arrest
3rd Desert Hero
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-66822717
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66824981
It would be very reasonable for all the hitherto loyal Conservative voters who detest the incompetent cheats that Johnson brought in to vote Lib Dem to keep Labour out. Did somebody say that currently uncommitted former Tories now make up 27% of the electorate in Mid Beds?
In 2019, I did virtually nothing in my own seat, where we're third, in favour of helping a marginal. It's of course harder when there's just one by-election - nobody likes sitting on their hands even if it's the right thing to do.
The independent thinks he is going to win. Nobody else does
The Tory vote had collapsed but they don't know who to vote for
Labour have consolidated their support but the soft Tory vote does not want to vote for them. They are not moving.
There is a huge opportunity for the LDs but they need to convince the soft Tories to vote for them. At the moment the LDs are not getting the Labour vote
Conclusion: Anything could happen, but Tories coming 3rd is not inconceivable. Tending to think the LDs have the best opportunity but I'm biased
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66827742
I remember when Donald Tusk was idolised as the ideal statesman by various PBers.
It seems he's now race baiting about immigrants.
Hmm
Probably a 1 year job for the winning LD candidate!
It seems a very good policy to me. Like America when it was on the way to becoming a superpower.
But any of the top 3 parties is a plausible result.
Which doesn't suggest that fourth place Kamala Harris is highly thought of.
The stakes were way lower for Blair, Brown and Cameron. And of course Brexiteers judge them by brexiteer KPIs. On which point Frost and Co really buggered up.
Blair took the UK through greater integration, which from my point of view was great. A shame we didn’t join the Euro and Schengen, but hopefully next time we will. Schengen in particular is a no brainer.
That’s probably him somewhere in the background.
However I think you are right and the soft Tory vote will enable the LDs to win even without the Lab tactical vote.
https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/governor-approval-ratings-july-2023
So why does US government work better at a state level than a national level ?
And is that pattern followed in other countries ?
So the stakes were high for Blair, Brown and Cameron but they were too arrogantly stupid to realise it.
Not true. If you have a cute dog, like we have, you get a lot of attention from lots of non dog owners. In particular young ladies who go soppy over a cute playful dog..
Doesn’t look good for him
However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug
Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)
That coupled with ongoing issues around their candidate may prove costly for them.
Tamworth is a seat the Tories should not lose, but so was Oswestry. I think Labour have a decent shout.
For the LDs, winning a seat means 24-48 hours in the media spotlight which can only help after years in obscurity. It gets Davey on to the tv screens and while most people still won't know who he is, perhaps a few more will not only see who he is but listen to what he has to say.
That basically is what all the hours and days and weeks of work to win a seat represents - the chance to get noticed, the chance to be heard, the oxygen of publicity.
Or maybe not.
"So, This Is Happening", Fri 20230915, Russell Brand via YouTube, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZGr_PVUHn2I
A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
Edit: I hasten to add that I don't think you are one! And it reinforces your point very well indeed.
It shows the squalor of drugs and deprivation on the streets of Philadelphia:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7MXg1JNT3o8
Otherwise it is disquieting
I’m not defending Brand, he seems at the least to be highly sexually predatory. But that is not a crime per se
He reminds me psychologically and visually quite overtly of Rasputin
For the LDs, it's about those 30-50 seats where they start a clear if often distant second and whether a combination of Conservative switching, Conservative abstention and Labour tactical voting can get the candidate across the line.
It's harder to pass off as the bad old days, either, since it's too recent for that. I'd like to hope things were better now, but is that just a hope?