With regard to the header photo, perhaps @ydoethur can advise on whether, in the entire history of British electoral politics, there has ever been a party that has not used the slogan, It's Time for Change.
With regard to the header photo, perhaps @ydoethur can advise on whether, in the entire history of British electoral politics, there has ever been a party that has not used the slogan, It's Time for Change.
I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.
Did he? That is twattish. There are only going to be more videos, defending these dogs will get harder and harder
Even more surprising there are right wing Trumpite voices on Twitter saying America should also ban them. Which is counter-intuitive. I had no idea these dogs are loathed across the pond, even by gun toting types
With regard to the header photo, perhaps @ydoethur can advise on whether, in the entire history of British electoral politics, there has ever been a party that has not used the slogan, It's Time for Change.
I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.
Did he? That is twattish. There are only going to be more videos, defending these dogs will get harder and harder
Even more surprising there are right wing Trumpite voices on Twitter saying America should also ban them. Which is counter-intuitive. I had no idea these dogs are loathed across the pond, even by gun toting types
Associated with drug dealers, who in turn are associated with certain ethnic minorities in the MAGA mind.
The big dogs *they* own are completely safe, lovely family animals. The thing with the kid down the street at Christmas was an accident.
I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.
Did he? That is twattish. There are only going to be more videos, defending these dogs will get harder and harder
Even more surprising there are right wing Trumpite voices on Twitter saying America should also ban them. Which is counter-intuitive. I had no idea these dogs are loathed across the pond, even by gun toting types
Hmm, I wonder what the ethnicity of a typical bully owner is in the US? That might explain the difference.
Doctor @foxy has been saying for some time that the Nats in Rutherglen are VALUE, and that he has laid folding money to that effect
The latest polls suggest he is right. Even if the Nats fall short, the oddsmakers have been overconfident of a Labour victory
So: credit to the Fox
No matter how bad they are, the SNP have a very big core of supporters who back them, solely because of independence.
That said, even on the basis of Yougov's poll, Labour would take Rutherglen, and given the scandalous behaviour of the former MP, I can't see an SNP hold here. But, it has to be better than a one in ten chance.
FWIW I do think Labour will win Rutherglen, despite the Yougov poll yesterday. It will be close but a failure to win might cause serious panic in the Labour camp who need many seats like this in Scotland to get a majority.
We just might see a bit more red meat from Labour if they fail but this is a very difficult balancing act given the importance of Tories sitting on their hands or indulging themselves with votes for no hopers like Reform.
I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.
Did he? That is twattish. There are only going to be more videos, defending these dogs will get harder and harder
Even more surprising there are right wing Trumpite voices on Twitter saying America should also ban them. Which is counter-intuitive. I had no idea these dogs are loathed across the pond, even by gun toting types
What's interesting is the 'dogs don't kill people, people kill people' argument that's being put forward here is essentially the same as the one gun toting types deploy on the other side of the pond.
I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.
Boris was ban crazy when in office - alcohol on public transport, political protests - but he now presumably feels the need to dust down his old ultra-libertarian hat. On the lookout for new journalistic work or speeches to US tea-party think tanks?
Doctor @foxy has been saying for some time that the Nats in Rutherglen are VALUE, and that he has laid folding money to that effect
The latest polls suggest he is right. Even if the Nats fall short, the oddsmakers have been overconfident of a Labour victory
So: credit to the Fox
No matter how bad they are, the SNP have a very big core of supporters who back them, solely because of independence.
That said, even on the basis of Yougov's poll, Labour would take Rutherglen, and given the scandalous behaviour of the former MP, I can't see an SNP hold here. But, it has to be better than a one in ten chance.
I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.
Did he? That is twattish. There are only going to be more videos, defending these dogs will get harder and harder
Even more surprising there are right wing Trumpite voices on Twitter saying America should also ban them. Which is counter-intuitive. I had no idea these dogs are loathed across the pond, even by gun toting types
What's interesting is the 'dogs don't kill people, people kill people' argument that's being put forward here is essentially the same as the one gun toting types deploy on the other side of the pond.
Hardly surprising when these dogs are pretty much the equivalent of a weapon that you are, bizarrely, allowed to show in public.
I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.
Did he? That is twattish. There are only going to be more videos, defending these dogs will get harder and harder
Even more surprising there are right wing Trumpite voices on Twitter saying America should also ban them. Which is counter-intuitive. I had no idea these dogs are loathed across the pond, even by gun toting types
What's interesting is the 'dogs don't kill people, people kill people' argument that's being put forward here is essentially the same as the one gun toting types deploy on the other side of the pond.
Hardly surprising when these dogs are pretty much the equivalent of a weapon that you are, bizarrely, allowed to show in public.
Lots of dogs are (or can be) bloody dangerous.
My heart rate always goes up when I see one off a lead when out for a country walk, which is probably something the dog senses, but the problem is also the owner because if their dog gives you hassle they normally take any protest from you with remarkably bad grace.
With regard to the header photo, perhaps @ydoethur can advise on whether, in the entire history of British electoral politics, there has ever been a party that has not used the slogan, It's Time for Change.
Trump went with “Promises Made Promises Kept”… OK, that’s not British.
The Tories in 1997 had “You Can Only Be Sure With The Conservatives”.
Doctor @foxy has been saying for some time that the Nats in Rutherglen are VALUE, and that he has laid folding money to that effect
The latest polls suggest he is right. Even if the Nats fall short, the oddsmakers have been overconfident of a Labour victory
So: credit to the Fox
No matter how bad they are, the SNP have a very big core of supporters who back them, solely because of independence.
That said, even on the basis of Yougov's poll, Labour would take Rutherglen, and given the scandalous behaviour of the former MP, I can't see an SNP hold here. But, it has to be better than a one in ten chance.
Scandalous my arse, that parasite Charlie brought his whole entourage here and infected a whole village and the arseholes said nothing. She sat alone on a train. Get a grip.
Doctor @foxy has been saying for some time that the Nats in Rutherglen are VALUE, and that he has laid folding money to that effect
The latest polls suggest he is right. Even if the Nats fall short, the oddsmakers have been overconfident of a Labour victory
So: credit to the Fox
My hunch based on my guessing stick is Mid Beds LD, Tamworth Con and Rutherglen SNP.
In the absence of real ground level intelligence it is just a guess.
My hunch is a comfortable 2000 majority for Labour here, with SNP winning it back at the general. The odds for SNP in this by election look attractive, but not attractive enough.
The SNP would need around a 15 point lead to win this back at the general. I'm sceptical they'd manage that unless either Humsa's ratings massively improve or the SCONs make a serious recovery at SLAB's expense.
With regard to the header photo, perhaps @ydoethur can advise on whether, in the entire history of British electoral politics, there has ever been a party that has not used the slogan, It's Time for Change.
Trump went with “Promises Made Promises Kept”… OK, that’s not British.
The Tories in 1997 had “You Can Only Be Sure With The Conservatives”.
In 1997, any Tory slogan was going to be trumped by "Time for a Change"....
I think there is more chance of us winning zero rather than three.
Spread 0.5 - 1.5.
That's extremely cautious and I suspect tending towards a training down expectations post.
If Labour doesn't win Rutherglen, a marginal seat they won in 2017, against the current backdrop in Scotland and in the circumstances of the by-election, that is a really bad performance.
Beyond that, they should win Tamworth based on Selby swing. The local election portents are good for them from that area, and the circumstances of the by-election bad for the Tories. It isn't a gimme, but they are fully justified favourites.
Mid Beds is complex due to all three parties having a sniff at it, but clearly Labour are sufficiently hopeful that they have a decent chance to put resource in.
FWIW I do think Labour will win Rutherglen, despite the Yougov poll yesterday. It will be close but a failure to win might cause serious panic in the Labour camp who need many seats like this in Scotland to get a majority.
We just might see a bit more red meat from Labour if they fail but this is a very difficult balancing act given the importance of Tories sitting on their hands or indulging themselves with votes for no hopers like Reform.
I reckon Labour U-turn on the two-child benefit cap the next day if they don't win Rutherglen.
Doctor @foxy has been saying for some time that the Nats in Rutherglen are VALUE, and that he has laid folding money to that effect
The latest polls suggest he is right. Even if the Nats fall short, the oddsmakers have been overconfident of a Labour victory
So: credit to the Fox
My hunch based on my guessing stick is Mid Beds LD, Tamworth Con and Rutherglen SNP.
In the absence of real ground level intelligence it is just a guess.
If this happens, Starmer is out, isn't he?
No obvious replacement, and too many people have invested/sold their souls to make the Starmer project work? Can see it while Labour have a 20 pt lead in the polls.
Fwiw I’d still be mildly surprised if the SNP held Rutherglen, though it would make me laugh like a drain.
Jack Russell's are proper terriers, of course they regard small birds and mammals as prey.
Jack Russells are just as nasty as the American Bully XL, and should likewise be banned.
Is that a joke?
Our own dog is tiny, a half Jack Russell, half Chihuahua mix. A breed we chose because we had a 1 year old at the time (now 7) and that mix is fantastic around babies.
If we're going ban things that might go after small mammals (not people) then I assume all cats would be banned next?
Doctor @foxy has been saying for some time that the Nats in Rutherglen are VALUE, and that he has laid folding money to that effect
The latest polls suggest he is right. Even if the Nats fall short, the oddsmakers have been overconfident of a Labour victory
So: credit to the Fox
My hunch based on my guessing stick is Mid Beds LD, Tamworth Con and Rutherglen SNP.
In the absence of real ground level intelligence it is just a guess.
If this happens, Starmer is out, isn't he?
No obvious replacement, and too many people have invested/sold their souls to make the Starmer project work? Can see it while Labour have a 20 pt lead in the polls.
Fwiw I’d still be mildly surprised if the SNP held Rutherglen, though it would make me laugh like a drain.
I hear you. But reckon that there are ambitious people around who would happily take over the project as their own.
FWIW I do think Labour will win Rutherglen, despite the Yougov poll yesterday. It will be close but a failure to win might cause serious panic in the Labour camp who need many seats like this in Scotland to get a majority.
We just might see a bit more red meat from Labour if they fail but this is a very difficult balancing act given the importance of Tories sitting on their hands or indulging themselves with votes for no hopers like Reform.
I reckon Labour U-turn on the two-child benefit cap the next day if they don't win Rutherglen.
I don’t understand why Labour kept the cap . They’re just annoying the left of the party and they need to understand that left wing voters will only stomach so much . They seem obsessed with avoiding Tory attacks when they’re going to be attacked regardless . They also seem to be chasing votes of people who would never vote for them . The next flashpoint will be the bedroom tax.
Doctor @foxy has been saying for some time that the Nats in Rutherglen are VALUE, and that he has laid folding money to that effect
The latest polls suggest he is right. Even if the Nats fall short, the oddsmakers have been overconfident of a Labour victory
So: credit to the Fox
My hunch based on my guessing stick is Mid Beds LD, Tamworth Con and Rutherglen SNP.
In the absence of real ground level intelligence it is just a guess.
If this happens, Starmer is out, isn't he?
Not a chance. There isn't the Lab equivalent of the 1922.
Right. It's an important point. Last time the shadow cabinet half-quit, and it didn't matter.
Obviously it's in no leader's interest, but it would really be worth the Labour party reconsidering this. Part of the credit for winning GE2019 goes to the Tories who replaced their leader with a new one. And replacing him in turn seems to have been a good idea overall, though structurally they were shafted either way.
Doctor @foxy has been saying for some time that the Nats in Rutherglen are VALUE, and that he has laid folding money to that effect
The latest polls suggest he is right. Even if the Nats fall short, the oddsmakers have been overconfident of a Labour victory
So: credit to the Fox
My hunch based on my guessing stick is Mid Beds LD, Tamworth Con and Rutherglen SNP.
In the absence of real ground level intelligence it is just a guess.
If this happens, Starmer is out, isn't he?
No obvious replacement, and too many people have invested/sold their souls to make the Starmer project work? Can see it while Labour have a 20 pt lead in the polls.
Fwiw I’d still be mildly surprised if the SNP held Rutherglen, though it would make me laugh like a drain.
I hear you. But reckon that there are ambitious people around who would happily take over the project as their own.
It's absolutely ridiculous to think that Starmer's leadership would be under threat if Labour failed to gain any of the three seats on offer. It would cause unease in Labour for sure, and the atmosphere in the party would significantly worsen. But nowhere even close to defenestration.
With regard to the header photo, perhaps @ydoethur can advise on whether, in the entire history of British electoral politics, there has ever been a party that has not used the slogan, It's Time for Change.
Trump went with “Promises Made Promises Kept”… OK, that’s not British.
The Tories in 1997 had “You Can Only Be Sure With The Conservatives”.
I kind of assume DecrepiterJohn meant to say opposition party or something similar (although he didn't). It's perhaps less common for an incumbent party, particularly an 18 year incumbent as the Tories were in 1997, to try to use "It's Time for a Change".
There doesn't seem to be much actual evidence to go on for any of these by-elections. I think it's unlikely but possible for Labour to win all three, or none.
Mid Beds is the sort of seat that is so safe Tory that Labour could never expect to win, but the LDs might have a slight outside chance as the voters who need to switch for the Tories to lose are prepared to protest vote LD, but not Labour. Having said that I think the Tories are so unpopular at the moment that they might prove me wrong by coming third. I wouldn't like to say who will win and unless a decisive constituency poll emerges, it could be quite close.
Tamworth ought to be Labour's to win but with a 21% swing needed to win it is right at the limit even in a by-election (national polls if we believe them show about a 15-17% swing). So if they come close but don't take it, no big deal.
Rutherglen is the key. Labour won it in 2017 in an election they lost, so if they don't recover it this time they aren't on course for a majority. The difficulty for them is that it is in the one part of the country without a large swing to Labour since the last GE. So I would say a win of any sort, even by 1 vote, is probably good enough for them but alarm bells should ring if they fall short and don't win either of the others to compensate.
Overall I think they have a 50/50 chance in all seats, give or take, and I don't feel brave enough to take a punt in any of them.
Maybe a more plausible scenario is that Labour win or lose Rutherglen by 2%, Rachel Reeves gets the sack and the job goes to a loyalist promising free owls paid for by hope. Tamworth stays Tory because nobody hates benefits more than industrious mid-to-lower income earners.
Doctor @foxy has been saying for some time that the Nats in Rutherglen are VALUE, and that he has laid folding money to that effect
The latest polls suggest he is right. Even if the Nats fall short, the oddsmakers have been overconfident of a Labour victory
So: credit to the Fox
My hunch based on my guessing stick is Mid Beds LD, Tamworth Con and Rutherglen SNP.
In the absence of real ground level intelligence it is just a guess.
If this happens, Starmer is out, isn't he?
Nah
It's almost impossible to get rid of a labour leader, no matter how they perform.
I'm sure he would have survived, but Batley & Spen was an interesting one. The Tories were still riding pretty high (Labour would consistently take the lead for around 6 months, and were around 5-10 behind), had smashed a win against Labour in Hartlepool (albeit they lost to a classic LD gain in Chesham and Amersham), and then came Batley & Spen, if not Red Wall then at least consistently Labour since 97.
Losing two by-elections to a government 11 years in would perhaps have been worrying, but in the end Labour squeaked home by a few hundred votes. Granted, Galloway running will have had an effect. But Labour haven't really been tested in a by-election since, albeit they failed to take Uxbridge when they should have.
With regard to the header photo, perhaps @ydoethur can advise on whether, in the entire history of British electoral politics, there has ever been a party that has not used the slogan, It's Time for Change.
Trump went with “Promises Made Promises Kept”… OK, that’s not British.
The Tories in 1997 had “You Can Only Be Sure With The Conservatives”.
I kind of assume DecrepiterJohn meant to say opposition party or something similar (although he didn't). It's perhaps less common for an incumbent party, particularly an 18 year incumbent as the Tories were in 1997, to try to use "It's Time for a Change".
Incompetence and Greed. Oh yes, we could be sure with the Conservatives!
In 1950 the Liberal Party went with a big picture of Big Ben and the slogan ‘It’s time we had the Liberals back’. Didn’t work. At all,
I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.
Did he? That is twattish. There are only going to be more videos, defending these dogs will get harder and harder
Even more surprising there are right wing Trumpite voices on Twitter saying America should also ban them. Which is counter-intuitive. I had no idea these dogs are loathed across the pond, even by gun toting types
What's interesting is the 'dogs don't kill people, people kill people' argument that's being put forward here is essentially the same as the one gun toting types deploy on the other side of the pond.
Hardly surprising when these dogs are pretty much the equivalent of a weapon that you are, bizarrely, allowed to show in public.
Lots of dogs are (or can be) bloody dangerous.
My heart rate always goes up when I see one off a lead when out for a country walk, which is probably something the dog senses, but the problem is also the owner because if their dog gives you hassle they normally take any protest from you with remarkably bad grace.
That's some very rude owners right there. In my local country park people are usually profusely apologetic if their dog so much as sniffs up against another person, and as one of the few people walking there without a dog of my own I'm more than happy to give the little bleeders a stroke.
Doctor @foxy has been saying for some time that the Nats in Rutherglen are VALUE, and that he has laid folding money to that effect
The latest polls suggest he is right. Even if the Nats fall short, the oddsmakers have been overconfident of a Labour victory
So: credit to the Fox
My hunch based on my guessing stick is Mid Beds LD, Tamworth Con and Rutherglen SNP.
In the absence of real ground level intelligence it is just a guess.
If this happens, Starmer is out, isn't he?
No obvious replacement, and too many people have invested/sold their souls to make the Starmer project work? Can see it while Labour have a 20 pt lead in the polls.
Fwiw I’d still be mildly surprised if the SNP held Rutherglen, though it would make me laugh like a drain.
A by-election within 12-16 months of a GE should be a pretty free shot for anyone wanting to take a pot shot at the incumbent party without worrying that they will be stuck with some other lot for very long, knowing they can return to support soon enough. So given the distractions and issues they've had this year the SNP would rightly be cock-a-hoop (or whatever it is people do north of the border) if they retain it.
There doesn't seem to be much actual evidence to go on for any of these by-elections. I think it's unlikely but possible for Labour to win all three, or none.
Mid Beds is the sort of seat that is so safe Tory that Labour could never expect to win, but the LDs might have a slight outside chance as the voters who need to switch for the Tories to lose are prepared to protest vote LD, but not Labour. Having said that I think the Tories are so unpopular at the moment that they might prove me wrong by coming third. I wouldn't like to say who will win and unless a decisive constituency poll emerges, it could be quite close.
Tamworth ought to be Labour's to win but with a 21% swing needed to win it is right at the limit even in a by-election (national polls if we believe them show about a 15-17% swing). So if they come close but don't take it, no big deal.
Rutherglen is the key. Labour won it in 2017 in an election they lost, so if they don't recover it this time they aren't on course for a majority. The difficulty for them is that it is in the one part of the country without a large swing to Labour since the last GE. So I would say a win of any sort, even by 1 vote, is probably good enough for them but alarm bells should ring if they fall short and don't win either of the others to compensate.
Overall I think they have a 50/50 chance in all seats, give or take, and I don't feel brave enough to take a punt in any of them.
If you think Labour have a 50/50 chance in all three, surely you should go to Betfair and get on the SNP in Rutherglen at 11, Tories in Tamworth at 3.25, and Labour in Mid Beds at 3.35?
Remember that betting isn't about being sure of the outcome - it's where the value lies. And if you think Labour are a toss up in each of the three (I don't, but that's your feeling) then the value is SNP, Tory, and Labour.
With regard to the header photo, perhaps @ydoethur can advise on whether, in the entire history of British electoral politics, there has ever been a party that has not used the slogan, It's Time for Change.
Trump went with “Promises Made Promises Kept”… OK, that’s not British.
The Tories in 1997 had “You Can Only Be Sure With The Conservatives”.
I kind of assume DecrepiterJohn meant to say opposition party or something similar (although he didn't). It's perhaps less common for an incumbent party, particularly an 18 year incumbent as the Tories were in 1997, to try to use "It's Time for a Change".
In 'opposition' in 2016 Trump seemed to have "lock her up" as his most used slogan.
And now bitches and moans that having actually broken the law he is being held to account.
With regard to the header photo, perhaps @ydoethur can advise on whether, in the entire history of British electoral politics, there has ever been a party that has not used the slogan, It's Time for Change.
Trump went with “Promises Made Promises Kept”… OK, that’s not British.
The Tories in 1997 had “You Can Only Be Sure With The Conservatives”.
I kind of assume DecrepiterJohn meant to say opposition party or something similar (although he didn't). It's perhaps less common for an incumbent party, particularly an 18 year incumbent as the Tories were in 1997, to try to use "It's Time for a Change".
In 'opposition' in 2016 Trump seemed to have "lock her up" as his most used slogan.
And now bitches and moans that having actually broken the law he is being held to account.
In fairness, Hillary stood accused of misuse of a Gmail account, and you have to throw away the key with animals like her - there's no reforming them. Whereas Donald is up on some minor technicalities about attempting to overthrow democracy or whatever.
With regard to the header photo, perhaps @ydoethur can advise on whether, in the entire history of British electoral politics, there has ever been a party that has not used the slogan, It's Time for Change.
Trump went with “Promises Made Promises Kept”… OK, that’s not British.
The Tories in 1997 had “You Can Only Be Sure With The Conservatives”.
I kind of assume DecrepiterJohn meant to say opposition party or something similar (although he didn't). It's perhaps less common for an incumbent party, particularly an 18 year incumbent as the Tories were in 1997, to try to use "It's Time for a Change".
Incompetence and Greed. Oh yes, we could be sure with the Conservatives!
In 1950 the Liberal Party went with a big picture of Big Ben and the slogan ‘It’s time we had the Liberals back’. Didn’t work. At all,
Well, it was 1923 the last time the Liberals had a truly large number of MPs, perhaps their slogan in 2024 should be "It's been a hundred years! Give us another go".
I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.
Did he? That is twattish. There are only going to be more videos, defending these dogs will get harder and harder
Even more surprising there are right wing Trumpite voices on Twitter saying America should also ban them. Which is counter-intuitive. I had no idea these dogs are loathed across the pond, even by gun toting types
What's interesting is the 'dogs don't kill people, people kill people' argument that's being put forward here is essentially the same as the one gun toting types deploy on the other side of the pond.
Hardly surprising when these dogs are pretty much the equivalent of a weapon that you are, bizarrely, allowed to show in public.
Lots of dogs are (or can be) bloody dangerous.
My heart rate always goes up when I see one off a lead when out for a country walk, which is probably something the dog senses, but the problem is also the owner because if their dog gives you hassle they normally take any protest from you with remarkably bad grace.
I’ve had a couple of nasty experiences with dogs - one in Mexico took me close to dying. The dog didn’t reach me, because it was chained. But it was absolutely intent on killing me and it was enormous. The chain tightened just as I felt it’s hot spittle on my face..
Couple of years later I was walking in the Cornish countryside and a stupid family dog bounded up up me. Massive Great Dane on its hind legs trying to bite my face off and push me over. Easily as big as me
The family…. Laughed. ‘Oh he’s just being friendly’. HE WAS NOT JUST BEING FRIENDLY. I managed to push him off and jump over a gate
Ever since then I usually carry a knife on country walks, especially if I’m with smaller vulnerable people. Often I’m out for a picnic so it’s entirely justifiable but even if I’m not, I take a nice robust foldable pocket knife. Why should I be unarmed if people are gonna be out walking with their own weapons?
I recommend the Ontario Rat. It would fillet a Great Dane in seconds
With regard to the header photo, perhaps @ydoethur can advise on whether, in the entire history of British electoral politics, there has ever been a party that has not used the slogan, It's Time for Change.
Trump went with “Promises Made Promises Kept”… OK, that’s not British.
The Tories in 1997 had “You Can Only Be Sure With The Conservatives”.
I kind of assume DecrepiterJohn meant to say opposition party or something similar (although he didn't). It's perhaps less common for an incumbent party, particularly an 18 year incumbent as the Tories were in 1997, to try to use "It's Time for a Change".
Incompetence and Greed. Oh yes, we could be sure with the Conservatives!
In 1950 the Liberal Party went with a big picture of Big Ben and the slogan ‘It’s time we had the Liberals back’. Didn’t work. At all,
I like Barry Goldwater's 1964 campaign slogan, "In Your Heart, You Know He's Right"... but I prefer Lyndon Johnson's response, "In Your Guts, You Know He's Nuts".
With regard to the header photo, perhaps @ydoethur can advise on whether, in the entire history of British electoral politics, there has ever been a party that has not used the slogan, It's Time for Change.
Trump went with “Promises Made Promises Kept”… OK, that’s not British.
The Tories in 1997 had “You Can Only Be Sure With The Conservatives”.
I kind of assume DecrepiterJohn meant to say opposition party or something similar (although he didn't). It's perhaps less common for an incumbent party, particularly an 18 year incumbent as the Tories were in 1997, to try to use "It's Time for a Change".
Incompetence and Greed. Oh yes, we could be sure with the Conservatives!
In 1950 the Liberal Party went with a big picture of Big Ben and the slogan ‘It’s time we had the Liberals back’. Didn’t work. At all,
I like Barry Goldwater's 1964 campaign slogan, "In Your Heart, You Know He's Right"... but I prefer Lyndon Johnson's response, "In Your Guts, You Know He's Nuts".
As the lady said, "In my heart I want Bush, in my bush I want Hart."
With regard to the header photo, perhaps @ydoethur can advise on whether, in the entire history of British electoral politics, there has ever been a party that has not used the slogan, It's Time for Change.
Trump went with “Promises Made Promises Kept”… OK, that’s not British.
The Tories in 1997 had “You Can Only Be Sure With The Conservatives”.
I kind of assume DecrepiterJohn meant to say opposition party or something similar (although he didn't). It's perhaps less common for an incumbent party, particularly an 18 year incumbent as the Tories were in 1997, to try to use "It's Time for a Change".
Incompetence and Greed. Oh yes, we could be sure with the Conservatives!
In 1950 the Liberal Party went with a big picture of Big Ben and the slogan ‘It’s time we had the Liberals back’. Didn’t work. At all,
Well, it was 1923 the last time the Liberals had a truly large number of MPs, perhaps their slogan in 2024 should be "It's been a hundred years! Give us another go".
It’s a thought. Actually in 1950 the Liberals did have one gain which led to far better things……. Jo Grimond won Orkney & Shetland..
With regard to the header photo, perhaps @ydoethur can advise on whether, in the entire history of British electoral politics, there has ever been a party that has not used the slogan, It's Time for Change.
Trump went with “Promises Made Promises Kept”… OK, that’s not British.
The Tories in 1997 had “You Can Only Be Sure With The Conservatives”.
Jack Russell's are proper terriers, of course they regard small birds and mammals as prey.
Jack Russells are just as nasty as the American Bully XL, and should likewise be banned.
A friend's Jack Russell was attacked by a Doberman. It castrated the Doberman....
When I was a kid in the 80s Dobermans were the favoured dog of whatever your preferred term is for the kind of people who get off on having scary dogs. But my grandparents used to have a Jack Russell that was a really quite horribly bad tempered, nippy, creature. My other grandparents later had a very stupid Labrador that would make the most disgusting sound as he licked his nether regions. We had a Border Collie when I was very young, a dog that had adopted my parents on the beach when they were students. When she died it was my first and most traumatic to date encounter with death. I still really only like Border Collies, other dogs I can take or leave.
With regard to the header photo, perhaps @ydoethur can advise on whether, in the entire history of British electoral politics, there has ever been a party that has not used the slogan, It's Time for Change.
Trump went with “Promises Made Promises Kept”… OK, that’s not British.
The Tories in 1997 had “You Can Only Be Sure With The Conservatives”.
I kind of assume DecrepiterJohn meant to say opposition party or something similar (although he didn't). It's perhaps less common for an incumbent party, particularly an 18 year incumbent as the Tories were in 1997, to try to use "It's Time for a Change".
Incompetence and Greed. Oh yes, we could be sure with the Conservatives!
In 1950 the Liberal Party went with a big picture of Big Ben and the slogan ‘It’s time we had the Liberals back’. Didn’t work. At all,
Well, it was 1923 the last time the Liberals had a truly large number of MPs, perhaps their slogan in 2024 should be "It's been a hundred years! Give us another go".
An almost fun fact for you... Britain's most recent (ex) Liberal PM, Elizabeth Truss, resigned exactly one hundred years and one day after the previous one, David Lloyd George.
Further on dogs, I don’t recommend country walks in rural Armenia
They have these dogs bred to fight off - and kill - leopards and wolves. And probably Turks and Azerbaijanis. They are absolutely terrifying, they are the size of bears, they are psychopathically aggressive and they could eat a Bully XL for breakfast
No knife could fend them off. You’d need a sub machine gun
I’ve met them on a country walk in Armenia, they really are as big as that, they are murderously nasty, they turn your bowels to water
Best avoided
To be fair to the sensible Armenians, they know these dogs are horrifying and dangerous, they don’t generally regard them as pets, you don’t see them in the parks of suburban Yerevan
Jack Russell's are proper terriers, of course they regard small birds and mammals as prey.
Jack Russells are just as nasty as the American Bully XL, and should likewise be banned.
Is that a joke?
Our own dog is tiny, a half Jack Russell, half Chihuahua mix. A breed we chose because we had a 1 year old at the time (now 7) and that mix is fantastic around babies.
If we're going ban things that might go after small mammals (not people) then I assume all cats would be banned next?
So, Sir John Curtice (who is usually bloody accurate) thinks Labour's polling in Scotland is off the boil and they will fall short in Rutherglen and yet the SNP are still available at over 10/1 to take the seat. If so, that's superb value.
What am I missing?
I don't know.
He may be extrapolating from a single poll (bad Sir Curtice!).
He may have a bigger overview than us (good Sir Curtice!).
Or it may be simply that the betting odds are skewed by a differential between gamblers. As you know, in EURef the odds were skewed by the fact that Remainer gamblers were wealthier than Leave gamblers and could bet more.
In this specific instance we know that there are more non-Scottish gamblers (who disproportionately dislike SNP) than Scottish ones (who do the opposite). It is also the case that political gamblers find it very difficult to get to grips with the SNP - see PB's conviction that Kate Forbes was in with a shout in March. We badly need a SNP fan on PB capable of arguing the case and we don't have one.
Consequently if there is a mispricing in effect it may stay up for a long time.
Myself, being risk averse, I'll wait for a couple more polls (and definitely a local one(s)!) before slapping cash down. YMMV and good luck.
I’ve met them on a country walk in Armenia, they really are as big as that, they are murderously nasty, they turn your bowels to water
Best avoided
To be fair to the sensible Armenians, they know these dogs are horrifying and dangerous, they don’t generally regard them as pets, you don’t see them in the parks of suburban Yerevan
"He's just trying to be friendly. And so is the dog."
I’ve met them on a country walk in Armenia, they really are as big as that, they are murderously nasty, they turn your bowels to water
Best avoided
To be fair to the sensible Armenians, they know these dogs are horrifying and dangerous, they don’t generally regard them as pets, you don’t see them in the parks of suburban Yerevan
I bet it made sure you didn't even think about killing any of the local sheep though, so it performs its role well.
I’ve met them on a country walk in Armenia, they really are as big as that, they are murderously nasty, they turn your bowels to water
Best avoided
To be fair to the sensible Armenians, they know these dogs are horrifying and dangerous, they don’t generally regard them as pets, you don’t see them in the parks of suburban Yerevan
"He's just trying to be friendly. And so is the dog."
Note the hefty chain. Even the owners are scared of them
Jack Russell's are proper terriers, of course they regard small birds and mammals as prey.
Jack Russells are just as nasty as the American Bully XL, and should likewise be banned.
A friend's Jack Russell was attacked by a Doberman. It castrated the Doberman....
When I was a kid in the 80s Dobermans were the favoured dog of whatever your preferred term is for the kind of people who get off on having scary dogs. But my grandparents used to have a Jack Russell that was a really quite horribly bad tempered, nippy, creature. My other grandparents later had a very stupid Labrador that would make the most disgusting sound as he licked his nether regions. We had a Border Collie when I was very young, a dog that had adopted my parents on the beach when they were students. When she died it was my first and most traumatic to date encounter with death. I still really only like Border Collies, other dogs I can take or leave.
Pub I used to drink in allowed dogs. One regular used to bring a Jack Russell bitch in a small carrier bag. Set it down on a bar stool and it would sit there for hours, until someone else who had a rescue greyhound came in with her dog. Then both got excited and one or other had to go in the other part of the bar where the smell of the beer overcame that of the dogs.
Sadly the company owning the place sold it for housing.
There doesn't seem to be much actual evidence to go on for any of these by-elections. I think it's unlikely but possible for Labour to win all three, or none.
Mid Beds is the sort of seat that is so safe Tory that Labour could never expect to win, but the LDs might have a slight outside chance as the voters who need to switch for the Tories to lose are prepared to protest vote LD, but not Labour. Having said that I think the Tories are so unpopular at the moment that they might prove me wrong by coming third. I wouldn't like to say who will win and unless a decisive constituency poll emerges, it could be quite close.
Tamworth ought to be Labour's to win but with a 21% swing needed to win it is right at the limit even in a by-election (national polls if we believe them show about a 15-17% swing). So if they come close but don't take it, no big deal.
Rutherglen is the key. Labour won it in 2017 in an election they lost, so if they don't recover it this time they aren't on course for a majority. The difficulty for them is that it is in the one part of the country without a large swing to Labour since the last GE. So I would say a win of any sort, even by 1 vote, is probably good enough for them but alarm bells should ring if they fall short and don't win either of the others to compensate.
Overall I think they have a 50/50 chance in all seats, give or take, and I don't feel brave enough to take a punt in any of them.
If you think it's 50/50 in Rutherglen then you should definitely take the bet because at 10/1 for the SNP it's superb value.
I’ve met them on a country walk in Armenia, they really are as big as that, they are murderously nasty, they turn your bowels to water
Best avoided
To be fair to the sensible Armenians, they know these dogs are horrifying and dangerous, they don’t generally regard them as pets, you don’t see them in the parks of suburban Yerevan
"He's just trying to be friendly. And so is the dog."
Note the hefty chain. Even the owners are scared of them
And, reading between the lines, it eats posties and ramblers.
'A typical Gampr will guard its own home or farm, but will be more congenial off its own property. Adult dogs should greet newcomers off-territory, and body language should be assessed and monitored for successful engagements.'
Labour and Tories neck and neck in byelection race for Mid Beds, poll says Survey reveals Labour more likely than Lib Dems to overturn Conservatives’ 25,000 majority in Nadine Dorries’s former seat
I’ve met them on a country walk in Armenia, they really are as big as that, they are murderously nasty, they turn your bowels to water
Best avoided
To be fair to the sensible Armenians, they know these dogs are horrifying and dangerous, they don’t generally regard them as pets, you don’t see them in the parks of suburban Yerevan
"He's just trying to be friendly. And so is the dog."
Note the hefty chain. Even the owners are scared of them
You do realise you risk being a council estate doglovers' equivalent of those tech bro journalists who tell North London hipsters the next model of Iphone or vibrating watch or whatever to upgrade to?
I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.
Did he? That is twattish. There are only going to be more videos, defending these dogs will get harder and harder
Even more surprising there are right wing Trumpite voices on Twitter saying America should also ban them. Which is counter-intuitive. I had no idea these dogs are loathed across the pond, even by gun toting types
What's interesting is the 'dogs don't kill people, people kill people' argument that's being put forward here is essentially the same as the one gun toting types deploy on the other side of the pond.
Hardly surprising when these dogs are pretty much the equivalent of a weapon that you are, bizarrely, allowed to show in public.
Lots of dogs are (or can be) bloody dangerous.
My heart rate always goes up when I see one off a lead when out for a country walk, which is probably something the dog senses, but the problem is also the owner because if their dog gives you hassle they normally take any protest from you with remarkably bad grace.
Couple of years later I was walking in the Cornish countryside and a stupid family dog bounded up up me. Massive Great Dane on its hind legs trying to bite my face off and push me over. Easily as big as me
The family…. Laughed. ‘Oh he’s just being friendly’. HE WAS NOT JUST BEING FRIENDLY. I managed to push him off and jump over a gate
This is very typical. Maybe they feel they simply can't say anything else.
Could LAB gain all 3 of the October by-elections? – politicalbetting.com
Comments
On the fence!
The latest polls suggest he is right. Even if the Nats fall short, the oddsmakers have been overconfident of a Labour victory
So: credit to the Fox
Or are you missing a morning beating or something?
You were doing fairly well up to that point - a 6/10 compared to the usual 2/10 Saturday Tourists we get.
Did he? That is twattish. There are only going to be more videos, defending these dogs will get harder and harder
Even more surprising there are right wing Trumpite voices on Twitter saying America should also ban them. Which is counter-intuitive. I had no idea these dogs are loathed across the pond, even by gun toting types
Politically toxic.
Dog registration and insurance for all dogs is probably he way to go. But that will take truly absurd political heroism.
I have to take my emotional support salt water crocodile for a walk… laters.
#TwoTonsOfCuddles
On topic - damned if I know. It depends if the polls for Labour crystallise into votes. For some reason I think 2/3 is what will probably happen.
The big dogs *they* own are completely safe, lovely family animals. The thing with the kid down the street at Christmas was an accident.
In the absence of real ground level intelligence it is just a guess.
That said, even on the basis of Yougov's poll, Labour would take Rutherglen, and given the scandalous behaviour of the former MP, I can't see an SNP hold here. But, it has to be better than a one in ten chance.
We just might see a bit more red meat from Labour if they fail but this is a very difficult balancing act given the importance of Tories sitting on their hands or indulging themselves with votes for no hopers like Reform.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12523159/BORIS-JOHNSON-learned-day-sweet-gentle-Dilyn-turned-lethal-missile-fur-fang-killed-one-late-Queens-baby-geese.html
Spread 0.5 - 1.5.
I'd probably price at 4/1 for the SNP.
Far too many seem to think they should defend absolutely everything in the belief that to concede anything would ultimately compromise them.
The Wikipedia pages for the individual parties have more details, and there’s a TLDR video on the election at https://youtu.be/m_QMnFOE5uA
It's almost impossible to get rid of a labour leader, no matter how they perform.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2013/apr/09/baby-died-bitten-jack-russell
Nasty little brutes.
My heart rate always goes up when I see one off a lead when out for a country walk, which is probably something the dog senses, but the problem is also the owner because if their dog gives you hassle they normally take any protest from you with remarkably bad grace.
The Tories in 1997 had “You Can Only Be Sure With The Conservatives”.
Get a grip.
https://www.littlebursted.com/post/september
Latest blog post from the vineyard, on why it’s been so warm in recent Septembers.
If Labour doesn't win Rutherglen, a marginal seat they won in 2017, against the current backdrop in Scotland and in the circumstances of the by-election, that is a really bad performance.
Beyond that, they should win Tamworth based on Selby swing. The local election portents are good for them from that area, and the circumstances of the by-election bad for the Tories. It isn't a gimme, but they are fully justified favourites.
Mid Beds is complex due to all three parties having a sniff at it, but clearly Labour are sufficiently hopeful that they have a decent chance to put resource in.
Fwiw I’d still be mildly surprised if the SNP held Rutherglen, though it would make me laugh like a drain.
Our own dog is tiny, a half Jack Russell, half Chihuahua mix. A breed we chose because we had a 1 year old at the time (now 7) and that mix is fantastic around babies.
If we're going ban things that might go after small mammals (not people) then I assume all cats would be banned next?
Obviously it's in no leader's interest, but it would really be worth the Labour party reconsidering this. Part of the credit for winning GE2019 goes to the Tories who replaced their leader with a new one. And replacing him in turn seems to have been a good idea overall, though structurally they were shafted either way.
Mid Beds is the sort of seat that is so safe Tory that Labour could never expect to win, but the LDs might have a slight outside chance as the voters who need to switch for the Tories to lose are prepared to protest vote LD, but not Labour. Having said that I think the Tories are so unpopular at the moment that they might prove me wrong by coming third. I wouldn't like to say who will win and unless a decisive constituency poll emerges, it could be quite close.
Tamworth ought to be Labour's to win but with a 21% swing needed to win it is right at the limit even in a by-election (national polls if we believe them show about a 15-17% swing). So if they come close but don't take it, no big deal.
Rutherglen is the key. Labour won it in 2017 in an election they lost, so if they don't recover it this time they aren't on course for a majority. The difficulty for them is that it is in the one part of the country without a large swing to Labour since the last GE. So I would say a win of any sort, even by 1 vote, is probably good enough for them but alarm bells should ring if they fall short and don't win either of the others to compensate.
Overall I think they have a 50/50 chance in all seats, give or take, and I don't feel brave enough to take a punt in any of them.
Losing two by-elections to a government 11 years in would perhaps have been worrying, but in the end Labour squeaked home by a few hundred votes. Granted, Galloway running will have had an effect. But Labour haven't really been tested in a by-election since, albeit they failed to take Uxbridge when they should have.
In 1950 the Liberal Party went with a big picture of Big Ben and the slogan ‘It’s time we had the Liberals back’.
Didn’t work. At all,
Remember that betting isn't about being sure of the outcome - it's where the value lies. And if you think Labour are a toss up in each of the three (I don't, but that's your feeling) then the value is SNP, Tory, and Labour.
And now bitches and moans that having actually broken the law he is being held to account.
Couple of years later I was walking in the Cornish countryside and a stupid family dog bounded up up me. Massive Great Dane on its hind legs trying to bite my face off and push me over. Easily as big as me
The family…. Laughed. ‘Oh he’s just being friendly’. HE WAS NOT JUST BEING FRIENDLY. I managed to push him off and jump over a gate
Ever since then I usually carry a knife on country walks, especially if I’m with smaller vulnerable people. Often I’m out for a picnic so it’s entirely justifiable but even if I’m not, I take a nice robust foldable pocket knife. Why should I be unarmed if people are gonna be out walking with their own weapons?
I recommend the Ontario Rat. It would fillet a Great Dane in seconds
Actually in 1950 the Liberals did have one gain which led to far better things……. Jo Grimond won Orkney & Shetland..
But my grandparents used to have a Jack Russell that was a really quite horribly bad tempered, nippy, creature. My other grandparents later had a very stupid Labrador that would make the most disgusting sound as he licked his nether regions.
We had a Border Collie when I was very young, a dog that had adopted my parents on the beach when they were students. When she died it was my first and most traumatic to date encounter with death. I still really only like Border Collies, other dogs I can take or leave.
They have these dogs bred to fight off - and kill - leopards and wolves. And probably Turks and Azerbaijanis. They are absolutely terrifying, they are the size of bears, they are psychopathically aggressive and they could eat a Bully XL for breakfast
No knife could fend them off. You’d need a sub machine gun
I wish you all the best for your first vintage.
I’ve met them on a country walk in Armenia, they really are as big as that, they are murderously nasty, they turn your bowels to water
Best avoided
To be fair to the sensible Armenians, they know these dogs are horrifying and dangerous, they don’t generally regard them as pets, you don’t see them in the parks of suburban Yerevan
- He may be extrapolating from a single poll (bad Sir Curtice!).
- He may have a bigger overview than us (good Sir Curtice!).
- Or it may be simply that the betting odds are skewed by a differential between gamblers. As you know, in EURef the odds were skewed by the fact that Remainer gamblers were wealthier than Leave gamblers and could bet more.
In this specific instance we know that there are more non-Scottish gamblers (who disproportionately dislike SNP) than Scottish ones (who do the opposite). It is also the case that political gamblers find it very difficult to get to grips with the SNP - see PB's conviction that Kate Forbes was in with a shout in March. We badly need a SNP fan on PB capable of arguing the case and we don't have one.Consequently if there is a mispricing in effect it may stay up for a long time.
Myself, being risk averse, I'll wait for a couple more polls (and definitely a local one(s)!) before slapping cash down. YMMV and good luck.
Sadly the company owning the place sold it for housing.
If it was priced 50/50 that'd be different.
https://www.dogbreedinfo.com/a/armeniangampr.htm
And, reading between the lines, it eats posties and ramblers.
'A typical Gampr will guard its own home or farm, but will be more congenial off its own property. Adult dogs should greet newcomers off-territory, and body language should be assessed and monitored for successful engagements.'
Labour and Tories neck and neck in byelection race for Mid Beds, poll says
Survey reveals Labour more likely than Lib Dems to overturn Conservatives’ 25,000 majority in Nadine Dorries’s former seat
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/sep/16/labour-tories-neck-and-neck-mid-bedfordshire-race-poll-nadine-dorries
I assume you have a few minutes to lay the LDs before he odds adjust.
"‘I saw how grotesquely unqualified so many of us were’: Rory Stewart on his decade as a Tory MP", Sat 16 Sep 2023 13.00 BST, The Grauniad, see https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/sep/16/rory-stewart-tory-mp-decade-incompetent
I would also be very careful with any dog and children under 5, particularly if the dog doesn't know them well. Even a nip from play can be traumatic.
Maybe that should be the only unregulated one.