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Could LAB gain all 3 of the October by-elections? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,784
edited October 2023 in General
imageCould LAB gain all 3 of the October by-elections? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,080
    Hmmmm... Maybe?

    On the fence!
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 48,888
    Doctor @foxy has been saying for some time that the Nats in Rutherglen are VALUE, and that he has laid folding money to that effect

    The latest polls suggest he is right. Even if the Nats fall short, the oddsmakers have been overconfident of a Labour victory

    So: credit to the Fox
  • Options
    Leon said:

    Doctor @foxy has been saying for some time that the Nats in Rutherglen are VALUE, and that he has laid folding money to that effect

    The latest polls suggest he is right. Even if the Nats fall short, the oddsmakers have been overconfident of a Labour victory

    So: credit to the Fox

    Reminds me of Dr Fox on the radio...he had sexual allegations too.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,240
    edited September 2023
    With regard to the header photo, perhaps @ydoethur can advise on whether, in the entire history of British electoral politics, there has ever been a party that has not used the slogan, It's Time for Change.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,453
    edited September 2023
    elister said:

    Leon said:

    Doctor @foxy has been saying for some time that the Nats in Rutherglen are VALUE, and that he has laid folding money to that effect

    The latest polls suggest he is right. Even if the Nats fall short, the oddsmakers have been overconfident of a Labour victory

    So: credit to the Fox

    Reminds me of Dr Fox on the radio...he had sexual allegations too.
    Not sure what mileage you think you are going to get out of going personal.

    Or are you missing a morning beating or something?

    You were doing fairly well up to that point - a 6/10 compared to the usual 2/10 Saturday Tourists we get.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,835
    elister said:

    Leon said:

    Doctor @foxy has been saying for some time that the Nats in Rutherglen are VALUE, and that he has laid folding money to that effect

    The latest polls suggest he is right. Even if the Nats fall short, the oddsmakers have been overconfident of a Labour victory

    So: credit to the Fox

    Reminds me of Dr Fox on the radio...he had sexual allegations too.
    Crikey, you've made it to a second thread...
  • Options

    elister said:

    Leon said:

    Doctor @foxy has been saying for some time that the Nats in Rutherglen are VALUE, and that he has laid folding money to that effect

    The latest polls suggest he is right. Even if the Nats fall short, the oddsmakers have been overconfident of a Labour victory

    So: credit to the Fox

    Reminds me of Dr Fox on the radio...he had sexual allegations too.
    Not sure what mileage you think you are going to get out of going personal.

    Or are you missing a morning beating or something?

    You were doing fairly well up to that point - a 6/10 compared to the usual 2/10 Saturday Tourists we get.
    Bet you enjoyed that at public school.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,453

    With regard to the header photo, perhaps @ydoethur can advise on whether, in the entire history of British electoral politics, there has ever been a party that has not used the slogan, It's Time for Change.

    Surely you should ask @JackW ?
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,973
    edited September 2023
    I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.
  • Options

    I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.

    Its freedom innit.
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,365
    elister said:

    elister said:

    Leon said:

    Doctor @foxy has been saying for some time that the Nats in Rutherglen are VALUE, and that he has laid folding money to that effect

    The latest polls suggest he is right. Even if the Nats fall short, the oddsmakers have been overconfident of a Labour victory

    So: credit to the Fox

    Reminds me of Dr Fox on the radio...he had sexual allegations too.
    Not sure what mileage you think you are going to get out of going personal.

    Or are you missing a morning beating or something?

    You were doing fairly well up to that point - a 6/10 compared to the usual 2/10 Saturday Tourists we get.
    Bet you enjoyed that at public school.
    I'd stick to the hilarious Andrew Bridgen fantasies, you're just getting tediously unpleasant now.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 48,888

    I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.


    Did he? That is twattish. There are only going to be more videos, defending these dogs will get harder and harder

    Even more surprising there are right wing Trumpite voices on Twitter saying America should also ban them. Which is counter-intuitive. I had no idea these dogs are loathed across the pond, even by gun toting types
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,453

    I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.

    We are seeing why nothing has been done previously. Try and ban a breed of dog, and a vociferous movement forms.

    Politically toxic.

    Dog registration and insurance for all dogs is probably he way to go. But that will take truly absurd political heroism.

    I have to take my emotional support salt water crocodile for a walk… laters.

    #TwoTonsOfCuddles

    On topic - damned if I know. It depends if the polls for Labour crystallise into votes. For some reason I think 2/3 is what will probably happen.
  • Options

    With regard to the header photo, perhaps @ydoethur can advise on whether, in the entire history of British electoral politics, there has ever been a party that has not used the slogan, It's Time for Change.

    Monster Raving Looney Party?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,453
    Leon said:

    I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.


    Did he? That is twattish. There are only going to be more videos, defending these dogs will get harder and harder

    Even more surprising there are right wing Trumpite voices on Twitter saying America should also ban them. Which is counter-intuitive. I had no idea these dogs are loathed across the pond, even by gun toting types
    Associated with drug dealers, who in turn are associated with certain ethnic minorities in the MAGA mind.

    The big dogs *they* own are completely safe, lovely family animals. The thing with the kid down the street at Christmas was an accident.
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    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,642
    Leon said:

    I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.


    Did he? That is twattish. There are only going to be more videos, defending these dogs will get harder and harder

    Even more surprising there are right wing Trumpite voices on Twitter saying America should also ban them. Which is counter-intuitive. I had no idea these dogs are loathed across the pond, even by gun toting types
    Hmm, I wonder what the ethnicity of a typical bully owner is in the US? That might explain the difference.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,688
    Strange about Boris being against the ban. If one of these dogs savages a random child, there's a good 15% change it's one of Boris's offspring.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,691
    Leon said:

    Doctor @foxy has been saying for some time that the Nats in Rutherglen are VALUE, and that he has laid folding money to that effect

    The latest polls suggest he is right. Even if the Nats fall short, the oddsmakers have been overconfident of a Labour victory

    So: credit to the Fox

    My hunch based on my guessing stick is Mid Beds LD, Tamworth Con and Rutherglen SNP.

    In the absence of real ground level intelligence it is just a guess.
  • Options
    Leon said:

    Doctor @foxy has been saying for some time that the Nats in Rutherglen are VALUE, and that he has laid folding money to that effect

    The latest polls suggest he is right. Even if the Nats fall short, the oddsmakers have been overconfident of a Labour victory

    So: credit to the Fox

    I've been doing the same in the last 48 hours off the back of the latest polling and the SJC analysis.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,226
    Leon said:

    Doctor @foxy has been saying for some time that the Nats in Rutherglen are VALUE, and that he has laid folding money to that effect

    The latest polls suggest he is right. Even if the Nats fall short, the oddsmakers have been overconfident of a Labour victory

    So: credit to the Fox

    No matter how bad they are, the SNP have a very big core of supporters who back them, solely because of independence.

    That said, even on the basis of Yougov's poll, Labour would take Rutherglen, and given the scandalous behaviour of the former MP, I can't see an SNP hold here. But, it has to be better than a one in ten chance.
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,688
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Doctor @foxy has been saying for some time that the Nats in Rutherglen are VALUE, and that he has laid folding money to that effect

    The latest polls suggest he is right. Even if the Nats fall short, the oddsmakers have been overconfident of a Labour victory

    So: credit to the Fox

    My hunch based on my guessing stick is Mid Beds LD, Tamworth Con and Rutherglen SNP.

    In the absence of real ground level intelligence it is just a guess.
    My hunch is a comfortable 2000 majority for Labour here, with SNP winning it back at the general.
    The odds for SNP in this by election look attractive, but not attractive enough.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,924
    FWIW I do think Labour will win Rutherglen, despite the Yougov poll yesterday. It will be close but a failure to win might cause serious panic in the Labour camp who need many seats like this in Scotland to get a majority.

    We just might see a bit more red meat from Labour if they fail but this is a very difficult balancing act given the importance of Tories sitting on their hands or indulging themselves with votes for no hopers like Reform.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,783
    edited September 2023

    I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.

    Buller Club members and all that. Or perhaps not!

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12523159/BORIS-JOHNSON-learned-day-sweet-gentle-Dilyn-turned-lethal-missile-fur-fang-killed-one-late-Queens-baby-geese.html
  • Options
    Leon said:

    I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.


    Did he? That is twattish. There are only going to be more videos, defending these dogs will get harder and harder

    Even more surprising there are right wing Trumpite voices on Twitter saying America should also ban them. Which is counter-intuitive. I had no idea these dogs are loathed across the pond, even by gun toting types
    What's interesting is the 'dogs don't kill people, people kill people' argument that's being put forward here is essentially the same as the one gun toting types deploy on the other side of the pond.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,691
    Carnyx said:

    I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.

    Buller Club members and all that. Or perhaps not!

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12523159/BORIS-JOHNSON-learned-day-sweet-gentle-Dilyn-turned-lethal-missile-fur-fang-killed-one-late-Queens-baby-geese.html
    Jack Russell's are proper terriers, of course they regard small birds and mammals as prey.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,165
    Yes, but I'm thinking it'll be 1-2.
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    I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.

    Boris was ban crazy when in office - alcohol on public transport, political protests - but he now presumably feels the need to dust down his old ultra-libertarian hat. On the lookout for new journalistic work or speeches to US tea-party think tanks?
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,688
    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Doctor @foxy has been saying for some time that the Nats in Rutherglen are VALUE, and that he has laid folding money to that effect

    The latest polls suggest he is right. Even if the Nats fall short, the oddsmakers have been overconfident of a Labour victory

    So: credit to the Fox

    No matter how bad they are, the SNP have a very big core of supporters who back them, solely because of independence.

    That said, even on the basis of Yougov's poll, Labour would take Rutherglen, and given the scandalous behaviour of the former MP, I can't see an SNP hold here. But, it has to be better than a one in ten chance.
    Hmm, about the former MP. Do parties get punished for this kind of thing? I think they do if the party is culpable (see North Shropshire) but not always if the party acts in the right way (e.g. City of Chester).
    I wouldn't assume Ferrier's behaviour will hurt the SNP much. The SNP's likely loss of this seat will be much more to do with their own nationwide actions, not the former MP's.
  • Options
    I think there is more chance of us winning zero rather than three.

    Spread 0.5 - 1.5.
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    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Doctor @foxy has been saying for some time that the Nats in Rutherglen are VALUE, and that he has laid folding money to that effect

    The latest polls suggest he is right. Even if the Nats fall short, the oddsmakers have been overconfident of a Labour victory

    So: credit to the Fox

    No matter how bad they are, the SNP have a very big core of supporters who back them, solely because of independence.

    That said, even on the basis of Yougov's poll, Labour would take Rutherglen, and given the scandalous behaviour of the former MP, I can't see an SNP hold here. But, it has to be better than a one in ten chance.
    I think it's a good value loser.

    I'd probably price at 4/1 for the SNP.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,226
    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.

    Buller Club members and all that. Or perhaps not!

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12523159/BORIS-JOHNSON-learned-day-sweet-gentle-Dilyn-turned-lethal-missile-fur-fang-killed-one-late-Queens-baby-geese.html
    Jack Russell's are proper terriers, of course they regard small birds and mammals as prey.
    Jack Russells are just as nasty as the American Bully XL, and should likewise be banned.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,924

    I think there is more chance of us winning zero rather than three.

    Spread 0.5 - 1.5.

    That seems extremely pessimistic for a party with 20% leads. The Lib Dem’s are promising to be a nuisance of course but that is their purpose.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,924
    edited September 2023

    Leon said:

    I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.


    Did he? That is twattish. There are only going to be more videos, defending these dogs will get harder and harder

    Even more surprising there are right wing Trumpite voices on Twitter saying America should also ban them. Which is counter-intuitive. I had no idea these dogs are loathed across the pond, even by gun toting types
    What's interesting is the 'dogs don't kill people, people kill people' argument that's being put forward here is essentially the same as the one gun toting types deploy on the other side of the pond.
    Hardly surprising when these dogs are pretty much the equivalent of a weapon that you are, bizarrely, allowed to show in public.
  • Options
    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.

    Buller Club members and all that. Or perhaps not!

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12523159/BORIS-JOHNSON-learned-day-sweet-gentle-Dilyn-turned-lethal-missile-fur-fang-killed-one-late-Queens-baby-geese.html
    Jack Russell's are proper terriers, of course they regard small birds and mammals as prey.
    Jack Russells are just as nasty as the American Bully XL, and should likewise be banned.
    I don't know what dog charities are playing at.

    Far too many seem to think they should defend absolutely everything in the belief that to concede anything would ultimately compromise them.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,592
    For @NickPalmer FPT, re the Slovak election.

    The Wikipedia pages for the individual parties have more details, and there’s a TLDR video on the election at https://youtu.be/m_QMnFOE5uA
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,280
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Doctor @foxy has been saying for some time that the Nats in Rutherglen are VALUE, and that he has laid folding money to that effect

    The latest polls suggest he is right. Even if the Nats fall short, the oddsmakers have been overconfident of a Labour victory

    So: credit to the Fox

    My hunch based on my guessing stick is Mid Beds LD, Tamworth Con and Rutherglen SNP.

    In the absence of real ground level intelligence it is just a guess.
    If this happens, Starmer is out, isn't he?
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,360
    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.

    Buller Club members and all that. Or perhaps not!

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12523159/BORIS-JOHNSON-learned-day-sweet-gentle-Dilyn-turned-lethal-missile-fur-fang-killed-one-late-Queens-baby-geese.html
    Jack Russell's are proper terriers, of course they regard small birds and mammals as prey.
    Jack Russells are just as nasty as the American Bully XL, and should likewise be banned.
    The difference being that their size and strength means they don’t kill people .
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,620
    EPG said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Doctor @foxy has been saying for some time that the Nats in Rutherglen are VALUE, and that he has laid folding money to that effect

    The latest polls suggest he is right. Even if the Nats fall short, the oddsmakers have been overconfident of a Labour victory

    So: credit to the Fox

    My hunch based on my guessing stick is Mid Beds LD, Tamworth Con and Rutherglen SNP.

    In the absence of real ground level intelligence it is just a guess.
    If this happens, Starmer is out, isn't he?
    Nah

    It's almost impossible to get rid of a labour leader, no matter how they perform.
  • Options
    EPG said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Doctor @foxy has been saying for some time that the Nats in Rutherglen are VALUE, and that he has laid folding money to that effect

    The latest polls suggest he is right. Even if the Nats fall short, the oddsmakers have been overconfident of a Labour victory

    So: credit to the Fox

    My hunch based on my guessing stick is Mid Beds LD, Tamworth Con and Rutherglen SNP.

    In the absence of real ground level intelligence it is just a guess.
    If this happens, Starmer is out, isn't he?
    No.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,783
    nico679 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.

    Buller Club members and all that. Or perhaps not!

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12523159/BORIS-JOHNSON-learned-day-sweet-gentle-Dilyn-turned-lethal-missile-fur-fang-killed-one-late-Queens-baby-geese.html
    Jack Russell's are proper terriers, of course they regard small birds and mammals as prey.
    Jack Russells are just as nasty as the American Bully XL, and should likewise be banned.
    The difference being that their size and strength means they don’t kill people .
    Alas, they do kill little people.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2013/apr/09/baby-died-bitten-jack-russell
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,226
    nico679 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.

    Buller Club members and all that. Or perhaps not!

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12523159/BORIS-JOHNSON-learned-day-sweet-gentle-Dilyn-turned-lethal-missile-fur-fang-killed-one-late-Queens-baby-geese.html
    Jack Russell's are proper terriers, of course they regard small birds and mammals as prey.
    Jack Russells are just as nasty as the American Bully XL, and should likewise be banned.
    The difference being that their size and strength means they don’t kill people .
    They occasionally kill babies, because they get very jealous.

    Nasty little brutes.
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.


    Did he? That is twattish. There are only going to be more videos, defending these dogs will get harder and harder

    Even more surprising there are right wing Trumpite voices on Twitter saying America should also ban them. Which is counter-intuitive. I had no idea these dogs are loathed across the pond, even by gun toting types
    What's interesting is the 'dogs don't kill people, people kill people' argument that's being put forward here is essentially the same as the one gun toting types deploy on the other side of the pond.
    Hardly surprising when these dogs are pretty much the equivalent of a weapon that you are, bizarrely, allowed to show in public.
    Lots of dogs are (or can be) bloody dangerous.

    My heart rate always goes up when I see one off a lead when out for a country walk, which is probably something the dog senses, but the problem is also the owner because if their dog gives you hassle they normally take any protest from you with remarkably bad grace.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,592

    With regard to the header photo, perhaps @ydoethur can advise on whether, in the entire history of British electoral politics, there has ever been a party that has not used the slogan, It's Time for Change.

    Trump went with “Promises Made Promises Kept”… OK, that’s not British.

    The Tories in 1997 had “You Can Only Be Sure With The Conservatives”.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,441
    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Doctor @foxy has been saying for some time that the Nats in Rutherglen are VALUE, and that he has laid folding money to that effect

    The latest polls suggest he is right. Even if the Nats fall short, the oddsmakers have been overconfident of a Labour victory

    So: credit to the Fox

    No matter how bad they are, the SNP have a very big core of supporters who back them, solely because of independence.

    That said, even on the basis of Yougov's poll, Labour would take Rutherglen, and given the scandalous behaviour of the former MP, I can't see an SNP hold here. But, it has to be better than a one in ten chance.
    Scandalous my arse, that parasite Charlie brought his whole entourage here and infected a whole village and the arseholes said nothing. She sat alone on a train.
    Get a grip.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,445
    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.

    Buller Club members and all that. Or perhaps not!

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12523159/BORIS-JOHNSON-learned-day-sweet-gentle-Dilyn-turned-lethal-missile-fur-fang-killed-one-late-Queens-baby-geese.html
    Jack Russell's are proper terriers, of course they regard small birds and mammals as prey.
    Jack Russells are just as nasty as the American Bully XL, and should likewise be banned.
    A friend's Jack Russell was attacked by a Doberman. It castrated the Doberman....
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,441

    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.

    Buller Club members and all that. Or perhaps not!

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12523159/BORIS-JOHNSON-learned-day-sweet-gentle-Dilyn-turned-lethal-missile-fur-fang-killed-one-late-Queens-baby-geese.html
    Jack Russell's are proper terriers, of course they regard small birds and mammals as prey.
    Jack Russells are just as nasty as the American Bully XL, and should likewise be banned.
    I don't know what dog charities are playing at.

    Far too many seem to think they should defend absolutely everything in the belief that to concede anything would ultimately compromise them.
    Money, all these charities are gravy train jobs nowadays, pay themselves big bucks from the mugs donations.
  • Options
    Farooq said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Doctor @foxy has been saying for some time that the Nats in Rutherglen are VALUE, and that he has laid folding money to that effect

    The latest polls suggest he is right. Even if the Nats fall short, the oddsmakers have been overconfident of a Labour victory

    So: credit to the Fox

    My hunch based on my guessing stick is Mid Beds LD, Tamworth Con and Rutherglen SNP.

    In the absence of real ground level intelligence it is just a guess.
    My hunch is a comfortable 2000 majority for Labour here, with SNP winning it back at the general.
    The odds for SNP in this by election look attractive, but not attractive enough.
    The SNP would need around a 15 point lead to win this back at the general. I'm sceptical they'd manage that unless either Humsa's ratings massively improve or the SCONs make a serious recovery at SLAB's expense.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,360
    Sean_F said:

    nico679 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.

    Buller Club members and all that. Or perhaps not!

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12523159/BORIS-JOHNSON-learned-day-sweet-gentle-Dilyn-turned-lethal-missile-fur-fang-killed-one-late-Queens-baby-geese.html
    Jack Russell's are proper terriers, of course they regard small birds and mammals as prey.
    Jack Russells are just as nasty as the American Bully XL, and should likewise be banned.
    The difference being that their size and strength means they don’t kill people .
    They occasionally kill babies, because they get very jealous.

    Nasty little brutes.
    I’d rather come face to face with a Jack Russell in a bad mood than a Bully XL !

  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,445

    With regard to the header photo, perhaps @ydoethur can advise on whether, in the entire history of British electoral politics, there has ever been a party that has not used the slogan, It's Time for Change.

    Trump went with “Promises Made Promises Kept”… OK, that’s not British.

    The Tories in 1997 had “You Can Only Be Sure With The Conservatives”.
    In 1997, any Tory slogan was going to be trumped by "Time for a Change"....
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,783
    nico679 said:

    Sean_F said:

    nico679 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.

    Buller Club members and all that. Or perhaps not!

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12523159/BORIS-JOHNSON-learned-day-sweet-gentle-Dilyn-turned-lethal-missile-fur-fang-killed-one-late-Queens-baby-geese.html
    Jack Russell's are proper terriers, of course they regard small birds and mammals as prey.
    Jack Russells are just as nasty as the American Bully XL, and should likewise be banned.
    The difference being that their size and strength means they don’t kill people .
    They occasionally kill babies, because they get very jealous.

    Nasty little brutes.
    I’d rather come face to face with a Jack Russell in a bad mood than a Bully XL !

    Just make sure you aren't wearing a kilt or skirt!
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,446
    Off topic but in case you’re interested:

    https://www.littlebursted.com/post/september

    Latest blog post from the vineyard, on why it’s been so warm in recent Septembers.
  • Options

    I think there is more chance of us winning zero rather than three.

    Spread 0.5 - 1.5.

    That's extremely cautious and I suspect tending towards a training down expectations post.

    If Labour doesn't win Rutherglen, a marginal seat they won in 2017, against the current backdrop in Scotland and in the circumstances of the by-election, that is a really bad performance.

    Beyond that, they should win Tamworth based on Selby swing. The local election portents are good for them from that area, and the circumstances of the by-election bad for the Tories. It isn't a gimme, but they are fully justified favourites.

    Mid Beds is complex due to all three parties having a sniff at it, but clearly Labour are sufficiently hopeful that they have a decent chance to put resource in.
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    FWIW I do think Labour will win Rutherglen, despite the Yougov poll yesterday. It will be close but a failure to win might cause serious panic in the Labour camp who need many seats like this in Scotland to get a majority.

    We just might see a bit more red meat from Labour if they fail but this is a very difficult balancing act given the importance of Tories sitting on their hands or indulging themselves with votes for no hopers like Reform.

    I reckon Labour U-turn on the two-child benefit cap the next day if they don't win Rutherglen.
  • Options
    EPG said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Doctor @foxy has been saying for some time that the Nats in Rutherglen are VALUE, and that he has laid folding money to that effect

    The latest polls suggest he is right. Even if the Nats fall short, the oddsmakers have been overconfident of a Labour victory

    So: credit to the Fox

    My hunch based on my guessing stick is Mid Beds LD, Tamworth Con and Rutherglen SNP.

    In the absence of real ground level intelligence it is just a guess.
    If this happens, Starmer is out, isn't he?
    No obvious replacement, and too many people have invested/sold their souls to make the Starmer project work? Can see it while Labour have a 20 pt lead in the polls.

    Fwiw I’d still be mildly surprised if the SNP held Rutherglen, though it would make me laugh like a drain.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,445
    TimS said:

    Off topic but in case you’re interested:

    https://www.littlebursted.com/post/september

    Latest blog post from the vineyard, on why it’s been so warm in recent Septembers.

    Lyn Sore-bottom has just become one of my favourite place names....
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 19,209
    edited September 2023
    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.

    Buller Club members and all that. Or perhaps not!

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12523159/BORIS-JOHNSON-learned-day-sweet-gentle-Dilyn-turned-lethal-missile-fur-fang-killed-one-late-Queens-baby-geese.html
    Jack Russell's are proper terriers, of course they regard small birds and mammals as prey.
    Jack Russells are just as nasty as the American Bully XL, and should likewise be banned.
    Is that a joke?

    Our own dog is tiny, a half Jack Russell, half Chihuahua mix. A breed we chose because we had a 1 year old at the time (now 7) and that mix is fantastic around babies.

    If we're going ban things that might go after small mammals (not people) then I assume all cats would be banned next?
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,280

    EPG said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Doctor @foxy has been saying for some time that the Nats in Rutherglen are VALUE, and that he has laid folding money to that effect

    The latest polls suggest he is right. Even if the Nats fall short, the oddsmakers have been overconfident of a Labour victory

    So: credit to the Fox

    My hunch based on my guessing stick is Mid Beds LD, Tamworth Con and Rutherglen SNP.

    In the absence of real ground level intelligence it is just a guess.
    If this happens, Starmer is out, isn't he?
    No obvious replacement, and too many people have invested/sold their souls to make the Starmer project work? Can see it while Labour have a 20 pt lead in the polls.

    Fwiw I’d still be mildly surprised if the SNP held Rutherglen, though it would make me laugh like a drain.
    I hear you. But reckon that there are ambitious people around who would happily take over the project as their own.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,360

    DavidL said:

    FWIW I do think Labour will win Rutherglen, despite the Yougov poll yesterday. It will be close but a failure to win might cause serious panic in the Labour camp who need many seats like this in Scotland to get a majority.

    We just might see a bit more red meat from Labour if they fail but this is a very difficult balancing act given the importance of Tories sitting on their hands or indulging themselves with votes for no hopers like Reform.

    I reckon Labour U-turn on the two-child benefit cap the next day if they don't win Rutherglen.
    I don’t understand why Labour kept the cap . They’re just annoying the left of the party and they need to understand that left wing voters will only stomach so much . They seem obsessed with avoiding Tory attacks when they’re going to be attacked regardless . They also seem to be chasing votes of people who would never vote for them . The next flashpoint will be the bedroom tax.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,691
    EPG said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Doctor @foxy has been saying for some time that the Nats in Rutherglen are VALUE, and that he has laid folding money to that effect

    The latest polls suggest he is right. Even if the Nats fall short, the oddsmakers have been overconfident of a Labour victory

    So: credit to the Fox

    My hunch based on my guessing stick is Mid Beds LD, Tamworth Con and Rutherglen SNP.

    In the absence of real ground level intelligence it is just a guess.
    If this happens, Starmer is out, isn't he?
    Not a chance. There isn't the Lab equivalent of the 1922.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,445

    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.

    Buller Club members and all that. Or perhaps not!

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12523159/BORIS-JOHNSON-learned-day-sweet-gentle-Dilyn-turned-lethal-missile-fur-fang-killed-one-late-Queens-baby-geese.html
    Jack Russell's are proper terriers, of course they regard small birds and mammals as prey.
    Jack Russells are just as nasty as the American Bully XL, and should likewise be banned.
    A friend's Jack Russell was attacked by a Doberman. It castrated the Doberman....
    On reflection, that might be where the expression "back the under dog" comes from....
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,280
    Foxy said:

    EPG said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Doctor @foxy has been saying for some time that the Nats in Rutherglen are VALUE, and that he has laid folding money to that effect

    The latest polls suggest he is right. Even if the Nats fall short, the oddsmakers have been overconfident of a Labour victory

    So: credit to the Fox

    My hunch based on my guessing stick is Mid Beds LD, Tamworth Con and Rutherglen SNP.

    In the absence of real ground level intelligence it is just a guess.
    If this happens, Starmer is out, isn't he?
    Not a chance. There isn't the Lab equivalent of the 1922.
    Right. It's an important point. Last time the shadow cabinet half-quit, and it didn't matter.

    Obviously it's in no leader's interest, but it would really be worth the Labour party reconsidering this. Part of the credit for winning GE2019 goes to the Tories who replaced their leader with a new one. And replacing him in turn seems to have been a good idea overall, though structurally they were shafted either way.
  • Options
    EPG said:

    EPG said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Doctor @foxy has been saying for some time that the Nats in Rutherglen are VALUE, and that he has laid folding money to that effect

    The latest polls suggest he is right. Even if the Nats fall short, the oddsmakers have been overconfident of a Labour victory

    So: credit to the Fox

    My hunch based on my guessing stick is Mid Beds LD, Tamworth Con and Rutherglen SNP.

    In the absence of real ground level intelligence it is just a guess.
    If this happens, Starmer is out, isn't he?
    No obvious replacement, and too many people have invested/sold their souls to make the Starmer project work? Can see it while Labour have a 20 pt lead in the polls.

    Fwiw I’d still be mildly surprised if the SNP held Rutherglen, though it would make me laugh like a drain.
    I hear you. But reckon that there are ambitious people around who would happily take over the project as their own.
    It's absolutely ridiculous to think that Starmer's leadership would be under threat if Labour failed to gain any of the three seats on offer. It would cause unease in Labour for sure, and the atmosphere in the party would significantly worsen. But nowhere even close to defenestration.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,446
    edited September 2023

    TimS said:

    Off topic but in case you’re interested:

    https://www.littlebursted.com/post/september

    Latest blog post from the vineyard, on why it’s been so warm in recent Septembers.

    Lyn Sore-bottom has just become one of my favourite place names....
    The wine itself is likely to be named after the almost equally bottomy but somewhat less ointment-like Pett Bottom valley in which Lynsore nestles.
  • Options

    With regard to the header photo, perhaps @ydoethur can advise on whether, in the entire history of British electoral politics, there has ever been a party that has not used the slogan, It's Time for Change.

    Trump went with “Promises Made Promises Kept”… OK, that’s not British.

    The Tories in 1997 had “You Can Only Be Sure With The Conservatives”.
    I kind of assume DecrepiterJohn meant to say opposition party or something similar (although he didn't). It's perhaps less common for an incumbent party, particularly an 18 year incumbent as the Tories were in 1997, to try to use "It's Time for a Change".
  • Options
    PJHPJH Posts: 553
    There doesn't seem to be much actual evidence to go on for any of these by-elections. I think it's unlikely but possible for Labour to win all three, or none.

    Mid Beds is the sort of seat that is so safe Tory that Labour could never expect to win, but the LDs might have a slight outside chance as the voters who need to switch for the Tories to lose are prepared to protest vote LD, but not Labour. Having said that I think the Tories are so unpopular at the moment that they might prove me wrong by coming third. I wouldn't like to say who will win and unless a decisive constituency poll emerges, it could be quite close.

    Tamworth ought to be Labour's to win but with a 21% swing needed to win it is right at the limit even in a by-election (national polls if we believe them show about a 15-17% swing). So if they come close but don't take it, no big deal.

    Rutherglen is the key. Labour won it in 2017 in an election they lost, so if they don't recover it this time they aren't on course for a majority. The difficulty for them is that it is in the one part of the country without a large swing to Labour since the last GE. So I would say a win of any sort, even by 1 vote, is probably good enough for them but alarm bells should ring if they fall short and don't win either of the others to compensate.

    Overall I think they have a 50/50 chance in all seats, give or take, and I don't feel brave enough to take a punt in any of them.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,280
    Maybe a more plausible scenario is that Labour win or lose Rutherglen by 2%, Rachel Reeves gets the sack and the job goes to a loyalist promising free owls paid for by hope. Tamworth stays Tory because nobody hates benefits more than industrious mid-to-lower income earners.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,165
    rcs1000 said:

    EPG said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Doctor @foxy has been saying for some time that the Nats in Rutherglen are VALUE, and that he has laid folding money to that effect

    The latest polls suggest he is right. Even if the Nats fall short, the oddsmakers have been overconfident of a Labour victory

    So: credit to the Fox

    My hunch based on my guessing stick is Mid Beds LD, Tamworth Con and Rutherglen SNP.

    In the absence of real ground level intelligence it is just a guess.
    If this happens, Starmer is out, isn't he?
    Nah

    It's almost impossible to get rid of a labour leader, no matter how they perform.
    I'm sure he would have survived, but Batley & Spen was an interesting one. The Tories were still riding pretty high (Labour would consistently take the lead for around 6 months, and were around 5-10 behind), had smashed a win against Labour in Hartlepool (albeit they lost to a classic LD gain in Chesham and Amersham), and then came Batley & Spen, if not Red Wall then at least consistently Labour since 97.

    Losing two by-elections to a government 11 years in would perhaps have been worrying, but in the end Labour squeaked home by a few hundred votes. Granted, Galloway running will have had an effect. But Labour haven't really been tested in a by-election since, albeit they failed to take Uxbridge when they should have.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,346

    With regard to the header photo, perhaps @ydoethur can advise on whether, in the entire history of British electoral politics, there has ever been a party that has not used the slogan, It's Time for Change.

    Trump went with “Promises Made Promises Kept”… OK, that’s not British.

    The Tories in 1997 had “You Can Only Be Sure With The Conservatives”.
    I kind of assume DecrepiterJohn meant to say opposition party or something similar (although he didn't). It's perhaps less common for an incumbent party, particularly an 18 year incumbent as the Tories were in 1997, to try to use "It's Time for a Change".
    Incompetence and Greed. Oh yes, we could be sure with the Conservatives!

    In 1950 the Liberal Party went with a big picture of Big Ben and the slogan ‘It’s time we had the Liberals back’.
    Didn’t work. At all,
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,165

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.


    Did he? That is twattish. There are only going to be more videos, defending these dogs will get harder and harder

    Even more surprising there are right wing Trumpite voices on Twitter saying America should also ban them. Which is counter-intuitive. I had no idea these dogs are loathed across the pond, even by gun toting types
    What's interesting is the 'dogs don't kill people, people kill people' argument that's being put forward here is essentially the same as the one gun toting types deploy on the other side of the pond.
    Hardly surprising when these dogs are pretty much the equivalent of a weapon that you are, bizarrely, allowed to show in public.
    Lots of dogs are (or can be) bloody dangerous.

    My heart rate always goes up when I see one off a lead when out for a country walk, which is probably something the dog senses, but the problem is also the owner because if their dog gives you hassle they normally take any protest from you with remarkably bad grace.
    That's some very rude owners right there. In my local country park people are usually profusely apologetic if their dog so much as sniffs up against another person, and as one of the few people walking there without a dog of my own I'm more than happy to give the little bleeders a stroke.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,165

    EPG said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Doctor @foxy has been saying for some time that the Nats in Rutherglen are VALUE, and that he has laid folding money to that effect

    The latest polls suggest he is right. Even if the Nats fall short, the oddsmakers have been overconfident of a Labour victory

    So: credit to the Fox

    My hunch based on my guessing stick is Mid Beds LD, Tamworth Con and Rutherglen SNP.

    In the absence of real ground level intelligence it is just a guess.
    If this happens, Starmer is out, isn't he?
    No obvious replacement, and too many people have invested/sold their souls to make the Starmer project work? Can see it while Labour have a 20 pt lead in the polls.

    Fwiw I’d still be mildly surprised if the SNP held Rutherglen, though it would make me laugh like a drain.
    A by-election within 12-16 months of a GE should be a pretty free shot for anyone wanting to take a pot shot at the incumbent party without worrying that they will be stuck with some other lot for very long, knowing they can return to support soon enough. So given the distractions and issues they've had this year the SNP would rightly be cock-a-hoop (or whatever it is people do north of the border) if they retain it.
  • Options
    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,609
    edited September 2023
    `
    PJH said:

    There doesn't seem to be much actual evidence to go on for any of these by-elections. I think it's unlikely but possible for Labour to win all three, or none.

    Mid Beds is the sort of seat that is so safe Tory that Labour could never expect to win, but the LDs might have a slight outside chance as the voters who need to switch for the Tories to lose are prepared to protest vote LD, but not Labour. Having said that I think the Tories are so unpopular at the moment that they might prove me wrong by coming third. I wouldn't like to say who will win and unless a decisive constituency poll emerges, it could be quite close.

    Tamworth ought to be Labour's to win but with a 21% swing needed to win it is right at the limit even in a by-election (national polls if we believe them show about a 15-17% swing). So if they come close but don't take it, no big deal.

    Rutherglen is the key. Labour won it in 2017 in an election they lost, so if they don't recover it this time they aren't on course for a majority. The difficulty for them is that it is in the one part of the country without a large swing to Labour since the last GE. So I would say a win of any sort, even by 1 vote, is probably good enough for them but alarm bells should ring if they fall short and don't win either of the others to compensate.

    Overall I think they have a 50/50 chance in all seats, give or take, and I don't feel brave enough to take a punt in any of them.

    If you think Labour have a 50/50 chance in all three, surely you should go to Betfair and get on the SNP in Rutherglen at 11, Tories in Tamworth at 3.25, and Labour in Mid Beds at 3.35?

    Remember that betting isn't about being sure of the outcome - it's where the value lies. And if you think Labour are a toss up in each of the three (I don't, but that's your feeling) then the value is SNP, Tory, and Labour.
  • Options

    With regard to the header photo, perhaps @ydoethur can advise on whether, in the entire history of British electoral politics, there has ever been a party that has not used the slogan, It's Time for Change.

    Trump went with “Promises Made Promises Kept”… OK, that’s not British.

    The Tories in 1997 had “You Can Only Be Sure With The Conservatives”.
    I kind of assume DecrepiterJohn meant to say opposition party or something similar (although he didn't). It's perhaps less common for an incumbent party, particularly an 18 year incumbent as the Tories were in 1997, to try to use "It's Time for a Change".
    In 'opposition' in 2016 Trump seemed to have "lock her up" as his most used slogan.

    And now bitches and moans that having actually broken the law he is being held to account.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,165
    PJH said:

    There doesn't seem to be much actual evidence to go on for any of these by-elections.

    Never let that slow you down.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,165

    With regard to the header photo, perhaps @ydoethur can advise on whether, in the entire history of British electoral politics, there has ever been a party that has not used the slogan, It's Time for Change.

    Trump went with “Promises Made Promises Kept”… OK, that’s not British.

    The Tories in 1997 had “You Can Only Be Sure With The Conservatives”.
    I kind of assume DecrepiterJohn meant to say opposition party or something similar (although he didn't). It's perhaps less common for an incumbent party, particularly an 18 year incumbent as the Tories were in 1997, to try to use "It's Time for a Change".
    Incompetence and Greed. Oh yes, we could be sure with the Conservatives!

    In 1950 the Liberal Party went with a big picture of Big Ben and the slogan ‘It’s time we had the Liberals back’.
    Didn’t work. At all,
    Well, it was 1923 the last time the Liberals had a truly large number of MPs, perhaps their slogan in 2024 should be "It's been a hundred years! Give us another go".
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 48,888

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.


    Did he? That is twattish. There are only going to be more videos, defending these dogs will get harder and harder

    Even more surprising there are right wing Trumpite voices on Twitter saying America should also ban them. Which is counter-intuitive. I had no idea these dogs are loathed across the pond, even by gun toting types
    What's interesting is the 'dogs don't kill people, people kill people' argument that's being put forward here is essentially the same as the one gun toting types deploy on the other side of the pond.
    Hardly surprising when these dogs are pretty much the equivalent of a weapon that you are, bizarrely, allowed to show in public.
    Lots of dogs are (or can be) bloody dangerous.

    My heart rate always goes up when I see one off a lead when out for a country walk, which is probably something the dog senses, but the problem is also the owner because if their dog gives you hassle they normally take any protest from you with remarkably bad grace.
    I’ve had a couple of nasty experiences with dogs - one in Mexico took me close to dying. The dog didn’t reach me, because it was chained. But it was absolutely intent on killing me and it was enormous. The chain tightened just as I felt it’s hot spittle on my face..


    Couple of years later I was walking in the Cornish countryside and a stupid family dog bounded up up me. Massive Great Dane on its hind legs trying to bite my face off and push me over. Easily as big as me

    The family…. Laughed. ‘Oh he’s just being friendly’. HE WAS NOT JUST BEING FRIENDLY. I managed to push him off and jump over a gate

    Ever since then I usually carry a knife on country walks, especially if I’m with smaller vulnerable people. Often I’m out for a picnic so it’s entirely justifiable but even if I’m not, I take a nice robust foldable pocket knife. Why should I be unarmed if people are gonna be out walking with their own weapons?

    I recommend the Ontario Rat. It would fillet a Great Dane in seconds
  • Options

    With regard to the header photo, perhaps @ydoethur can advise on whether, in the entire history of British electoral politics, there has ever been a party that has not used the slogan, It's Time for Change.

    Trump went with “Promises Made Promises Kept”… OK, that’s not British.

    The Tories in 1997 had “You Can Only Be Sure With The Conservatives”.
    I kind of assume DecrepiterJohn meant to say opposition party or something similar (although he didn't). It's perhaps less common for an incumbent party, particularly an 18 year incumbent as the Tories were in 1997, to try to use "It's Time for a Change".
    Incompetence and Greed. Oh yes, we could be sure with the Conservatives!

    In 1950 the Liberal Party went with a big picture of Big Ben and the slogan ‘It’s time we had the Liberals back’.
    Didn’t work. At all,
    I like Barry Goldwater's 1964 campaign slogan, "In Your Heart, You Know He's Right"... but I prefer Lyndon Johnson's response, "In Your Guts, You Know He's Nuts".
  • Options

    With regard to the header photo, perhaps @ydoethur can advise on whether, in the entire history of British electoral politics, there has ever been a party that has not used the slogan, It's Time for Change.

    Trump went with “Promises Made Promises Kept”… OK, that’s not British.

    The Tories in 1997 had “You Can Only Be Sure With The Conservatives”.
    I kind of assume DecrepiterJohn meant to say opposition party or something similar (although he didn't). It's perhaps less common for an incumbent party, particularly an 18 year incumbent as the Tories were in 1997, to try to use "It's Time for a Change".
    Incompetence and Greed. Oh yes, we could be sure with the Conservatives!

    In 1950 the Liberal Party went with a big picture of Big Ben and the slogan ‘It’s time we had the Liberals back’.
    Didn’t work. At all,
    I like Barry Goldwater's 1964 campaign slogan, "In Your Heart, You Know He's Right"... but I prefer Lyndon Johnson's response, "In Your Guts, You Know He's Nuts".
    As the lady said, "In my heart I want Bush, in my bush I want Hart."
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,346
    kle4 said:

    With regard to the header photo, perhaps @ydoethur can advise on whether, in the entire history of British electoral politics, there has ever been a party that has not used the slogan, It's Time for Change.

    Trump went with “Promises Made Promises Kept”… OK, that’s not British.

    The Tories in 1997 had “You Can Only Be Sure With The Conservatives”.
    I kind of assume DecrepiterJohn meant to say opposition party or something similar (although he didn't). It's perhaps less common for an incumbent party, particularly an 18 year incumbent as the Tories were in 1997, to try to use "It's Time for a Change".
    Incompetence and Greed. Oh yes, we could be sure with the Conservatives!

    In 1950 the Liberal Party went with a big picture of Big Ben and the slogan ‘It’s time we had the Liberals back’.
    Didn’t work. At all,
    Well, it was 1923 the last time the Liberals had a truly large number of MPs, perhaps their slogan in 2024 should be "It's been a hundred years! Give us another go".
    It’s a thought.
    Actually in 1950 the Liberals did have one gain which led to far better things……. Jo Grimond won Orkney & Shetland..
  • Options

    With regard to the header photo, perhaps @ydoethur can advise on whether, in the entire history of British electoral politics, there has ever been a party that has not used the slogan, It's Time for Change.

    Trump went with “Promises Made Promises Kept”… OK, that’s not British.

    The Tories in 1997 had “You Can Only Be Sure With The Conservatives”.
    "New Labour, New Danger".
  • Options

    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.

    Buller Club members and all that. Or perhaps not!

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12523159/BORIS-JOHNSON-learned-day-sweet-gentle-Dilyn-turned-lethal-missile-fur-fang-killed-one-late-Queens-baby-geese.html
    Jack Russell's are proper terriers, of course they regard small birds and mammals as prey.
    Jack Russells are just as nasty as the American Bully XL, and should likewise be banned.
    A friend's Jack Russell was attacked by a Doberman. It castrated the Doberman....
    When I was a kid in the 80s Dobermans were the favoured dog of whatever your preferred term is for the kind of people who get off on having scary dogs.
    But my grandparents used to have a Jack Russell that was a really quite horribly bad tempered, nippy, creature. My other grandparents later had a very stupid Labrador that would make the most disgusting sound as he licked his nether regions.
    We had a Border Collie when I was very young, a dog that had adopted my parents on the beach when they were students. When she died it was my first and most traumatic to date encounter with death. I still really only like Border Collies, other dogs I can take or leave.
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    With regard to the header photo, perhaps @ydoethur can advise on whether, in the entire history of British electoral politics, there has ever been a party that has not used the slogan, It's Time for Change.

    Trump went with “Promises Made Promises Kept”… OK, that’s not British.

    The Tories in 1997 had “You Can Only Be Sure With The Conservatives”.
    I kind of assume DecrepiterJohn meant to say opposition party or something similar (although he didn't). It's perhaps less common for an incumbent party, particularly an 18 year incumbent as the Tories were in 1997, to try to use "It's Time for a Change".
    Incompetence and Greed. Oh yes, we could be sure with the Conservatives!

    In 1950 the Liberal Party went with a big picture of Big Ben and the slogan ‘It’s time we had the Liberals back’.
    Didn’t work. At all,
    Well, it was 1923 the last time the Liberals had a truly large number of MPs, perhaps their slogan in 2024 should be "It's been a hundred years! Give us another go".
    An almost fun fact for you... Britain's most recent (ex) Liberal PM, Elizabeth Truss, resigned exactly one hundred years and one day after the previous one, David Lloyd George.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 48,888
    Further on dogs, I don’t recommend country walks in rural Armenia

    They have these dogs bred to fight off - and kill - leopards and wolves. And probably Turks and Azerbaijanis. They are absolutely terrifying, they are the size of bears, they are psychopathically aggressive and they could eat a Bully XL for breakfast

    No knife could fend them off. You’d need a sub machine gun
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,445
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Off topic but in case you’re interested:

    https://www.littlebursted.com/post/september

    Latest blog post from the vineyard, on why it’s been so warm in recent Septembers.

    Lyn Sore-bottom has just become one of my favourite place names....
    The wine itself is likely to be named after the almost equally bottomy but somewhat less ointment-like Pett Bottom valley in which Lynsore nestles.
    "Pett Bottom. It's a drink, not an instruction..."

    I wish you all the best for your first vintage.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 48,888
    Here we go. The Armenian wolfhound. The ‘Gampr’

    I’ve met them on a country walk in Armenia, they really are as big as that, they are murderously nasty, they turn your bowels to water

    Best avoided



    To be fair to the sensible Armenians, they know these dogs are horrifying and dangerous, they don’t generally regard them as pets, you don’t see them in the parks of suburban Yerevan
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,924

    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.

    Buller Club members and all that. Or perhaps not!

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12523159/BORIS-JOHNSON-learned-day-sweet-gentle-Dilyn-turned-lethal-missile-fur-fang-killed-one-late-Queens-baby-geese.html
    Jack Russell's are proper terriers, of course they regard small birds and mammals as prey.
    Jack Russells are just as nasty as the American Bully XL, and should likewise be banned.
    Is that a joke?

    Our own dog is tiny, a half Jack Russell, half Chihuahua mix. A breed we chose because we had a 1 year old at the time (now 7) and that mix is fantastic around babies.

    If we're going ban things that might go after small mammals (not people) then I assume all cats would be banned next?
    Now you’re talking.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,535
    FPT

    So, Sir John Curtice (who is usually bloody accurate) thinks Labour's polling in Scotland is off the boil and they will fall short in Rutherglen and yet the SNP are still available at over 10/1 to take the seat. If so, that's superb value.

    What am I missing?

    I don't know.
    • He may be extrapolating from a single poll (bad Sir Curtice!).
    • He may have a bigger overview than us (good Sir Curtice!).
    • Or it may be simply that the betting odds are skewed by a differential between gamblers. As you know, in EURef the odds were skewed by the fact that Remainer gamblers were wealthier than Leave gamblers and could bet more.
    In this specific instance we know that there are more non-Scottish gamblers (who disproportionately dislike SNP) than Scottish ones (who do the opposite). It is also the case that political gamblers find it very difficult to get to grips with the SNP - see PB's conviction that Kate Forbes was in with a shout in March. We badly need a SNP fan on PB capable of arguing the case and we don't have one.

    Consequently if there is a mispricing in effect it may stay up for a long time.

    Myself, being risk averse, I'll wait for a couple more polls (and definitely a local one(s)!) before slapping cash down. YMMV and good luck.
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    Leon said:

    Here we go. The Armenian wolfhound. The ‘Gampr’

    I’ve met them on a country walk in Armenia, they really are as big as that, they are murderously nasty, they turn your bowels to water

    Best avoided



    To be fair to the sensible Armenians, they know these dogs are horrifying and dangerous, they don’t generally regard them as pets, you don’t see them in the parks of suburban Yerevan

    "He's just trying to be friendly. And so is the dog."
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,165
    Leon said:

    Here we go. The Armenian wolfhound. The ‘Gampr’

    I’ve met them on a country walk in Armenia, they really are as big as that, they are murderously nasty, they turn your bowels to water

    Best avoided



    To be fair to the sensible Armenians, they know these dogs are horrifying and dangerous, they don’t generally regard them as pets, you don’t see them in the parks of suburban Yerevan

    I bet it made sure you didn't even think about killing any of the local sheep though, so it performs its role well.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 48,888

    Leon said:

    Here we go. The Armenian wolfhound. The ‘Gampr’

    I’ve met them on a country walk in Armenia, they really are as big as that, they are murderously nasty, they turn your bowels to water

    Best avoided



    To be fair to the sensible Armenians, they know these dogs are horrifying and dangerous, they don’t generally regard them as pets, you don’t see them in the parks of suburban Yerevan

    "He's just trying to be friendly. And so is the dog."
    Note the hefty chain. Even the owners are scared of them
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,346

    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.

    Buller Club members and all that. Or perhaps not!

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12523159/BORIS-JOHNSON-learned-day-sweet-gentle-Dilyn-turned-lethal-missile-fur-fang-killed-one-late-Queens-baby-geese.html
    Jack Russell's are proper terriers, of course they regard small birds and mammals as prey.
    Jack Russells are just as nasty as the American Bully XL, and should likewise be banned.
    A friend's Jack Russell was attacked by a Doberman. It castrated the Doberman....
    When I was a kid in the 80s Dobermans were the favoured dog of whatever your preferred term is for the kind of people who get off on having scary dogs.
    But my grandparents used to have a Jack Russell that was a really quite horribly bad tempered, nippy, creature. My other grandparents later had a very stupid Labrador that would make the most disgusting sound as he licked his nether regions.
    We had a Border Collie when I was very young, a dog that had adopted my parents on the beach when they were students. When she died it was my first and most traumatic to date encounter with death. I still really only like Border Collies, other dogs I can take or leave.
    Pub I used to drink in allowed dogs. One regular used to bring a Jack Russell bitch in a small carrier bag. Set it down on a bar stool and it would sit there for hours, until someone else who had a rescue greyhound came in with her dog. Then both got excited and one or other had to go in the other part of the bar where the smell of the beer overcame that of the dogs.

    Sadly the company owning the place sold it for housing.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,165
    Thank you, Google, I am most reassured.

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    PJH said:

    There doesn't seem to be much actual evidence to go on for any of these by-elections. I think it's unlikely but possible for Labour to win all three, or none.

    Mid Beds is the sort of seat that is so safe Tory that Labour could never expect to win, but the LDs might have a slight outside chance as the voters who need to switch for the Tories to lose are prepared to protest vote LD, but not Labour. Having said that I think the Tories are so unpopular at the moment that they might prove me wrong by coming third. I wouldn't like to say who will win and unless a decisive constituency poll emerges, it could be quite close.

    Tamworth ought to be Labour's to win but with a 21% swing needed to win it is right at the limit even in a by-election (national polls if we believe them show about a 15-17% swing). So if they come close but don't take it, no big deal.

    Rutherglen is the key. Labour won it in 2017 in an election they lost, so if they don't recover it this time they aren't on course for a majority. The difficulty for them is that it is in the one part of the country without a large swing to Labour since the last GE. So I would say a win of any sort, even by 1 vote, is probably good enough for them but alarm bells should ring if they fall short and don't win either of the others to compensate.

    Overall I think they have a 50/50 chance in all seats, give or take, and I don't feel brave enough to take a punt in any of them.

    If you think it's 50/50 in Rutherglen then you should definitely take the bet because at 10/1 for the SNP it's superb value.

    If it was priced 50/50 that'd be different.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,783
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Here we go. The Armenian wolfhound. The ‘Gampr’

    I’ve met them on a country walk in Armenia, they really are as big as that, they are murderously nasty, they turn your bowels to water

    Best avoided



    To be fair to the sensible Armenians, they know these dogs are horrifying and dangerous, they don’t generally regard them as pets, you don’t see them in the parks of suburban Yerevan

    "He's just trying to be friendly. And so is the dog."
    Note the hefty chain. Even the owners are scared of them
    Hmm. Up to 85kg.

    https://www.dogbreedinfo.com/a/armeniangampr.htm

    And, reading between the lines, it eats posties and ramblers.

    'A typical Gampr will guard its own home or farm, but will be more congenial off its own property. Adult dogs should greet newcomers off-territory, and body language should be assessed and monitored for successful engagements.'
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,535
    7 minutes ago

    Labour and Tories neck and neck in byelection race for Mid Beds, poll says
    Survey reveals Labour more likely than Lib Dems to overturn Conservatives’ 25,000 majority in Nadine Dorries’s former seat

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/sep/16/labour-tories-neck-and-neck-mid-bedfordshire-race-poll-nadine-dorries

    I assume you have a few minutes to lay the LDs before he odds adjust.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,352
    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.

    Buller Club members and all that. Or perhaps not!

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12523159/BORIS-JOHNSON-learned-day-sweet-gentle-Dilyn-turned-lethal-missile-fur-fang-killed-one-late-Queens-baby-geese.html
    Jack Russell's are proper terriers, of course they regard small birds and mammals as prey.
    Jack Russells are just as nasty as the American Bully XL, and should likewise be banned.
    They can certainly be nasty, but they don't weigh nine stone, and unless you're very small they can't pin you to the ground.
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    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Off topic but in case you’re interested:

    https://www.littlebursted.com/post/september

    Latest blog post from the vineyard, on why it’s been so warm in recent Septembers.

    Lyn Sore-bottom has just become one of my favourite place names....
    The wine itself is likely to be named after the almost equally bottomy but somewhat less ointment-like Pett Bottom valley in which Lynsore nestles.
    In the current climate (warm Septembers notwithstanding) I'd advise against anything resembling innuendo, no matter the geographic justification.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,783
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Here we go. The Armenian wolfhound. The ‘Gampr’

    I’ve met them on a country walk in Armenia, they really are as big as that, they are murderously nasty, they turn your bowels to water

    Best avoided



    To be fair to the sensible Armenians, they know these dogs are horrifying and dangerous, they don’t generally regard them as pets, you don’t see them in the parks of suburban Yerevan

    "He's just trying to be friendly. And so is the dog."
    Note the hefty chain. Even the owners are scared of them
    You do realise you risk being a council estate doglovers' equivalent of those tech bro journalists who tell North London hipsters the next model of Iphone or vibrating watch or whatever to upgrade to?
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,535
    Remember what I keep saying about assumptions being no longer true? Here's an article with a similar (but not identical) conclusion

    "‘I saw how grotesquely unqualified so many of us were’: Rory Stewart on his decade as a Tory MP", Sat 16 Sep 2023 13.00 BST, The Grauniad, see https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/sep/16/rory-stewart-tory-mp-decade-incompetent
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    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    I hadn’t realised that Boris has come out against the American BullyXL ban. Twat.


    Did he? That is twattish. There are only going to be more videos, defending these dogs will get harder and harder

    Even more surprising there are right wing Trumpite voices on Twitter saying America should also ban them. Which is counter-intuitive. I had no idea these dogs are loathed across the pond, even by gun toting types
    What's interesting is the 'dogs don't kill people, people kill people' argument that's being put forward here is essentially the same as the one gun toting types deploy on the other side of the pond.
    Hardly surprising when these dogs are pretty much the equivalent of a weapon that you are, bizarrely, allowed to show in public.
    Lots of dogs are (or can be) bloody dangerous.

    My heart rate always goes up when I see one off a lead when out for a country walk, which is probably something the dog senses, but the problem is also the owner because if their dog gives you hassle they normally take any protest from you with remarkably bad grace.


    Couple of years later I was walking in the Cornish countryside and a stupid family dog bounded up up me. Massive Great Dane on its hind legs trying to bite my face off and push me over. Easily as big as me

    The family…. Laughed. ‘Oh he’s just being friendly’. HE WAS NOT JUST BEING FRIENDLY. I managed to push him off and jump over a gate

    This is very typical. Maybe they feel they simply can't say anything else.
This discussion has been closed.