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Could LAB gain all 3 of the October by-elections? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    DavidL said:

    Chris said:

    Labour now betting favourite in Mid Beds after Survation poll has them ahead with the LDs in third

    It's a two-horse race?
    The Liberal Democrats can't win here?
    And they will fade pretty quickly if that perception takes hold. After all, other than embarrassing the government by losing a safe seat in a by election what is the point of the Lib Dems?
    Personally I think they should come out for Rejoin. There's a solid block of people who would vote for that, almost regardless of other considerations. Not a majority, but lots more than their current polling.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,978

    As of 2017, the US "foreign born" population was estimated at more than 44 million. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Foreign-born_population

    So, currently, it is probably around 50 million. No doubt there are more precise estimates, but given the number of illegals in the US, I think it unwise to put much faith in any of them.

    This part surprised me, recently: "Roughly 4.6 million, or one-in-ten, Black people in the U.S. were born in a different country as of 2019, up from 3% in 1980. By 2060, the U.S. Census Bureau projects that this number will increase to 9.5 million, or more than double the current level (the Census Bureau only offers projections for single race groups)."
    source: https://www.pewresearch.org/race-ethnicity/2022/01/20/one-in-ten-black-people-living-in-the-u-s-are-immigrants/

    Yep. Not only that but Nigerians are the most likely immigrant group to have a degree. Despite being only 1% of Black Americans they are 25% of the Black students at Harvard Business School.

    https://medium.com/@joecarleton/why-nigerian-immigrants-are-the-most-successful-ethnic-group-in-the-u-s-23a7ea5a0832

  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,943
    Keep an eye on this map. Current and Forecast change in soil moisture. It will tell us when the fighting season in Ukraine is likely to end and the counteroffensive stop for a few months.

    http://wxmaps.org/pix/soil4

    Currently very dry soils over that region and little rainfall forecast (plus hot weather) so the mud isn’t coming anytime soon.

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087
    Speaking of things that used to be a bigger deal than they are now, look who gets listed at the bottom of the wiki page for the 2019 GE results (albeit clearly there are apparenly many 'parties' doing even worse)

  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,797
    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    DavidL said:

    Chris said:

    Labour now betting favourite in Mid Beds after Survation poll has them ahead with the LDs in third

    It's a two-horse race?
    The Liberal Democrats can't win here?
    And they will fade pretty quickly if that perception takes hold. After all, other than embarrassing the government by losing a safe seat in a by election what is the point of the Lib Dems?
    The last really distinctive thing the Lib Dems stood for was in 2010 - putting the Tories into government in return for a referendum on an electoral reform they thought would benefit them, which they lost anyway.
    You may have missed 2019 when they put "STOP BREXIT" literally on the front cover of their manifesto. How much clearer do you need?
    You made it as far as the cover? More than most, well done.

    The Green Party got plaudits from me because their manifesto had working internal hyperlinks, which most do not bother with.

    Their cover is a question, and which is pretty funny in its boldness and unrealistic expectations


    The answer is never.
    Well, yes, whether anyone is reading the manifesto is quite another question.

    But questions like "what do they stand for and who cares anyway?" really expose the questioner. They got over 3.5 million votes. One in nine voters picked them. Their most recent electoral platform was crystal clear.

    It's perfectly legitimate to say you hate them and they should fuck off forever, but to say they haven't stood for anything distinctive since 2010 is fucking weird.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,725
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I have never liked Brand, and am not entirely surprised at the allegations, but this should not be a trial by media, and it is hard to justify a special despatches.

    "Show biz star is a sexual predator" is hardly a shock after all.
    Er, he's famous and its about sexual allegations, of course it's big news in the media landscape, even if he is c-list at best.

    Really cannot grasp your surprise at the way its been investigated and now reported.
    He’s really not C list. He has 6m followers. Online he’s A list for sure
    If your only fanbase is online, you're not A-list. Tom Cruise does not have a podcast
    A fundamental misreading of modern culture. He’s a massive online influencer: that’s his shtick and he’s BIG within that

    He’s not trying to be a Tom Cruise type celeb. He’s a new type

    Many people will listen to what he says about Political issue X or Y, and reflect on it, and maybe act on it; Tom Cruise can’t do that
    Social Media "Influencers" really aren't A-Listers.

    Its pathetic like saying that a video has a million views. It really doesn't mean much.

    Besides on YouTube channels get into the hundreds of millions, and most of those with tens of millions I really wouldn't consider A Listers either. 6 million sounds pathetic for "A List" claims.
    I can understand taking issue with me calling Brand C list. He's reasonably well known, and for whatever reason has some notable presence in online circles. But A list, whilst not a scientifically defined term by any means, surely means people of truly significant profile and influence, not people who get some good views on podcasts sometimes. Are the Triggernometry guys A-list?

    If it is elevated by one's online profile, then as you note there are far better candidates than Brand. If he's A list who are the B list?!
    The accusations against Brand are fairly old-hat yet they are nonetheless the lead story on the guardian and the times and subject to a channel 4 special tonight, and this after “years of investigation by a team of journalists”. This alone says he is A list, despite not gracing MSM for many years

    Fame has changed
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,548
    DavidL said:

    @ydoethur must be getting extremely twitchy as this goes to the final over with 8 required.

    Nah, I said Leics would finish last in every competition so it was inevitable they would be champions of at least one.
  • Options
    Foxy said:

    As of 2017, the US "foreign born" population was estimated at more than 44 million. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Foreign-born_population

    So, currently, it is probably around 50 million. No doubt there are more precise estimates, but given the number of illegals in the US, I think it unwise to put much faith in any of them.

    This part surprised me, recently: "Roughly 4.6 million, or one-in-ten, Black people in the U.S. were born in a different country as of 2019, up from 3% in 1980. By 2060, the U.S. Census Bureau projects that this number will increase to 9.5 million, or more than double the current level (the Census Bureau only offers projections for single race groups)."
    source: https://www.pewresearch.org/race-ethnicity/2022/01/20/one-in-ten-black-people-living-in-the-u-s-are-immigrants/

    Yep. Not only that but Nigerians are the most likely immigrant group to have a degree. Despite being only 1% of Black Americans they are 25% of the Black students at Harvard Business School.

    https://medium.com/@joecarleton/why-nigerian-immigrants-are-the-most-successful-ethnic-group-in-the-u-s-23a7ea5a0832

    Given how much money it takes to get into an American college, it helps that they're all princes with millions to give away to anybody who'd answer their emails.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087
    Farooq said:

    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    DavidL said:

    Chris said:

    Labour now betting favourite in Mid Beds after Survation poll has them ahead with the LDs in third

    It's a two-horse race?
    The Liberal Democrats can't win here?
    And they will fade pretty quickly if that perception takes hold. After all, other than embarrassing the government by losing a safe seat in a by election what is the point of the Lib Dems?
    The last really distinctive thing the Lib Dems stood for was in 2010 - putting the Tories into government in return for a referendum on an electoral reform they thought would benefit them, which they lost anyway.
    You may have missed 2019 when they put "STOP BREXIT" literally on the front cover of their manifesto. How much clearer do you need?
    You made it as far as the cover? More than most, well done.

    The Green Party got plaudits from me because their manifesto had working internal hyperlinks, which most do not bother with.

    Their cover is a question, and which is pretty funny in its boldness and unrealistic expectations


    The answer is never.
    Well, yes, whether anyone is reading the manifesto is quite another question.
    I read 'em all. Within reason, I'm not hunting down the Gwlad Party manifesto.

    (It's my donation to PB services, so you all don't have to)
  • Options
    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,803
    Leon said:

    Ratters said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I'm not sure I agree.

    The bar to a successful criminal conviction for sexual assault and rape are, rightly, very high as they result in loss of liberty. In many cases the evidence is his word against hers, as the defence is about whether or not consent was given rather than whether the act occured (much easier to prove).

    I don't think victims of sexual assault should be prevented from making accusations publicly, just because they have not achieved a criminal conviction.

    People can choose who they wish to believe. And Brand can choose whether or not to sue for libel.
    What if you can’t afford to sue for libel? Admittedly, Brand easily can

    Hmm. Mixed feelings about this

    Far better for it to be done in court than on TV: what they are for
    The other point about this is that if you are making an allegation, and you get sued, you've got to fund your own defence, and also it can bankrupt you and destroy your reputation if on the balance of probabilities you are found to be lying, which could be the outcome if you aren't well represented and up against a well resourced opponent. Most people aren't going to do it.

    In some ways, the widespread dissatisfaction with how the legal system operates explains how a shadow justice system has emerged, where people get removed from public life by 'allegations of inappropriate behaviour', without any due process involved at all.

    The whole situation is a mess. I have no idea what the answer is.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,150
    Tres said:

    kle4 said:

    I do actually forget what Brand originally did. Was he a comedian, a singer, an actor?

    He was a stand-up who got gigs presenting shows on MTV/radio, then moved into acting.
    Wasn't he an astrologer originally?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,978
    edited September 2023

    DavidL said:

    Chris said:

    Labour now betting favourite in Mid Beds after Survation poll has them ahead with the LDs in third

    It's a two-horse race?
    The Liberal Democrats can't win here?
    And they will fade pretty quickly if that perception takes hold. After all, other than embarrassing the government by losing a safe seat in a by election what is the point of the Lib Dems?
    Personally I think they should come out for Rejoin. There's a solid block of people who would vote for that, almost regardless of other considerations. Not a majority, but lots more than their current polling.
    Rejoin is LD policy, via closer alignment on SM and CU initially, followed later by full Rejoin.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,715
    I met a 26 year old teacher today who hadn't a clue who Eric Clapton was/is. God do I feel old.
  • Options

    Have just seen the poll in Mid Beds. Con 20 / Lab 20 / LD 15. As I said previously, whichever party is polling in the lead needs to be given the run. LibDems need to back off. We're trying to remove the Tories, not empower them.

    Many thanks - not something I can say but I hope will be remembered when the LibDems are second in a constituency.
    The party rules on that front are stupid. You can't say it. Even when we're the contender to remove the Tory and a Labour vote only helps prop up their hopes of clinging on.

    Do we want to smash this monstrous party or not? Needs co-operation, and both Labour party rules and some activists are utterly pig-headed on the subject.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,229

    TimS said:

    "Anyone who wants to get from Africa to Poland goes to our embassy, ​​buys a stamped visa at a special stand, fills in their details and off they go! PiS [governing party] migration policy," wrote Donald Tusk, the leader of the opposition Civic Platform party, on X (formerly Twitter).

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66827742

    I remember when Donald Tusk was idolised as the ideal statesman by various PBers.

    It seems he's now race baiting about immigrants.

    There was me naively thinking he was boasting about a great new initiative to encourage immigration into a demographically ageing society.

    It seems a very good policy to me. Like America when it was on the way to becoming a superpower.
    That's fake history. The USA had extremely low immigration in the period when it became a superpower, and before that was highly selective.

    image
    Immigration statistics that take no account of population size are insanely misleading, no?

    The US population today is 332 million.

    Back in 1910, it was about a quarter of that. So, immigration in the period running up to the First World War was about 3x the relative level of now.
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,815

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I have never liked Brand, and am not entirely surprised at the allegations, but this should not be a trial by media, and it is hard to justify a special despatches.

    "Show biz star is a sexual predator" is hardly a shock after all.
    "Russell Brand is a sexual predator" is no shock at all.
    The revelations are so flaccid they’ll likely have the opposite effects that that intentioned, and Brand is likely to actually garner some sympathy.
    According to The Times article he committed rape. Why would that make someone sympathetic to him?
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,797
    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    DavidL said:

    Chris said:

    Labour now betting favourite in Mid Beds after Survation poll has them ahead with the LDs in third

    It's a two-horse race?
    The Liberal Democrats can't win here?
    And they will fade pretty quickly if that perception takes hold. After all, other than embarrassing the government by losing a safe seat in a by election what is the point of the Lib Dems?
    The last really distinctive thing the Lib Dems stood for was in 2010 - putting the Tories into government in return for a referendum on an electoral reform they thought would benefit them, which they lost anyway.
    You may have missed 2019 when they put "STOP BREXIT" literally on the front cover of their manifesto. How much clearer do you need?
    You made it as far as the cover? More than most, well done.

    The Green Party got plaudits from me because their manifesto had working internal hyperlinks, which most do not bother with.

    Their cover is a question, and which is pretty funny in its boldness and unrealistic expectations


    The answer is never.
    Well, yes, whether anyone is reading the manifesto is quite another question.
    I read 'em all. Within reason, I'm not hunting down the Gwlad Party manifesto.

    (It's my donation to PB services, so you all don't have to)
    I don't, but I didn't need to last time. "Bollocks to Brexit" won my vote.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,252
    edited September 2023

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I have never liked Brand, and am not entirely surprised at the allegations, but this should not be a trial by media, and it is hard to justify a special despatches.

    "Show biz star is a sexual predator" is hardly a shock after all.
    Unpleasant attitude that seems awfully close to that anaesthetists letter a few days ago.

    Whether something's a shock or not, sexual assault is still wrong.

    And the only way we're going to have women be treated with respect is if these concerns get aired, even when they're not shocking. Until they are.
    I have no problem with such a portfolio of evidence being handed over to appropriate police forces and courts, but a trial by media risks prejudicing a fair trial.
    That's upto the alleged victims, which do they prefer?

    Too often victims are "encouraged" to keep the abuse quiet or dismissed or not taken seriously, and the same perpetrator abuses many people none of whom make the connection as they're all staying quiet.

    The Me Too movement did a good job by letting people know they're not alone. That's a good thing, not something to be frowned upon.

    When the allegations about Weinstein, or Harris, or other predators made it to light it encouraged other victims to step forward. That is a good thing.

    Sunlight is one of the best disinfectants.
    That speaking up led to criminal trials, which is exactly what should happen. And what should happen here - if there is evidence for the allegations of crimes in the UK.

    One of the problems in the UK is the now long delays for rape cases - even after investigation and charging - to go to trial, which is unfair on everyone.
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 4,073
    Chris said:

    Tres said:

    kle4 said:

    I do actually forget what Brand originally did. Was he a comedian, a singer, an actor?

    He was a stand-up who got gigs presenting shows on MTV/radio, then moved into acting.
    Wasn't he an astrologer originally?
    Wasn’t that Russell Grant?
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,094
    Given that I have numerous sources of gossip - the only thing I can think about Russell Brand is how come it’s taken so long.. I remember when stories started rumbling about problems with an actor in Branagh’s version of Death on the Nile that he had finally be found out only for Armie Hammer’s name to come up in the news a day or so later…
  • Options
    Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I have never liked Brand, and am not entirely surprised at the allegations, but this should not be a trial by media, and it is hard to justify a special despatches.

    "Show biz star is a sexual predator" is hardly a shock after all.
    Unpleasant attitude that seems awfully close to that anaesthetists letter a few days ago.

    Whether something's a shock or not, sexual assault is still wrong.

    And the only way we're going to have women be treated with respect is if these concerns get aired, even when they're not shocking. Until they are.
    I have no problem with such a portfolio of evidence being handed over to appropriate police forces and courts, but a trial by media risks prejudicing a fair trial.
    That's upto the alleged victims, which do they prefer?

    Too often victims are "encouraged" to keep the abuse quiet or dismissed or not taken seriously, and the same perpetrator abuses many people none of whom make the connection as they're all staying quiet.

    The Me Too movement did a good job by letting people know they're not alone. That's a good thing, not something to be frowned upon.

    When the allegations about Weinstein, or Harris, or other predators made it to light it encouraged other victims to step forward. That is a good thing.

    Sunlight is one of the best disinfectants.
    That speaking up led to criminal trials, which is exactly what should happen. And what should happen here - if there is evidence for the allegations of crimes in the UK.
    Agreed 100%

    The idea it is "take it to the Police, but otherwise STFU and say nothing in public" is the solution is not a working one.

    All it does is make victims feel isolated and alone, and if the Police don't take them seriously then what can they do? Whereas if they speak up, and it turns out the same person has done this to many people, then the Police suddenly have to take them seriously.
  • Options
    Farooq said:

    The sensible range for when America became a superpower is between 1898 and 1945. And date outside those ranges is wrong, and any date within those ranges is justifiable.

    It's perhaps helpful to think of it as a gradual becoming rather than happening one bright April morning.

    I disagree

    The US only took over the UK/Empire economically in 1911. Arguably it wasn’t even a great power (no ability to force project) at that point

    “Superpower” had no meaning as a term in a multipolar world. After 1946 that changed and the US/Russia were superpowers
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,978
    CatMan said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I have never liked Brand, and am not entirely surprised at the allegations, but this should not be a trial by media, and it is hard to justify a special despatches.

    "Show biz star is a sexual predator" is hardly a shock after all.
    "Russell Brand is a sexual predator" is no shock at all.
    The revelations are so flaccid they’ll likely have the opposite effects that that intentioned, and Brand is likely to actually garner some sympathy.
    According to The Times article he committed rape. Why would that make someone sympathetic to him?
    It doesn't seem to have damaged Andrew Tate with a certain demographic, just evidence of The Matrix out to get him.

    There are parts of the Manosphere that aspire to be that sort of sexual predator.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087
    Idle political fact - Flick Drummond was MP for Portsmouth South 2015-17, is the current MP for Meon Valley since 2019, and is the candidate for Winchester for the next GE.

    Now, granted, her current seat is being abolished and about 1/4 of Winchester is made up of her current seat, but it's sufficiently different that I wonder if it is come kind of record to represent 3 different seats within what might be only a 9 year range (if she can win).
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,725
    CatMan said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I have never liked Brand, and am not entirely surprised at the allegations, but this should not be a trial by media, and it is hard to justify a special despatches.

    "Show biz star is a sexual predator" is hardly a shock after all.
    "Russell Brand is a sexual predator" is no shock at all.
    The revelations are so flaccid they’ll likely have the opposite effects that that intentioned, and Brand is likely to actually garner some sympathy.
    According to The Times article he committed rape. Why would that make someone sympathetic to him?
    Because he is charismatic and liked by many. Obviously not many PB-ers, but hey

    The fans will see an agenda to bring him down, the ambivalent might agree

    Also, Brand has been “open” about his predatory womanizing, along with his drugging and drinking. This isn’t some Weinstein being unmasked, let alone a Jimmy Savile

    That doesn’t excuse it, of course, but it is a different context to many attempted exposes
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,978
    kjh said:

    I met a 26 year old teacher today who hadn't a clue who Eric Clapton was/is. God do I feel old.

    He peaked a half century ago. Who in the Eighties at the age of 26 could name the music stars of the 1930's?
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,715
    kle4 said:

    Idle political fact - Flick Drummond was MP for Portsmouth South 2015-17, is the current MP for Meon Valley since 2019, and is the candidate for Winchester for the next GE.

    Now, granted, her current seat is being abolished and about 1/4 of Winchester is made up of her current seat, but it's sufficiently different that I wonder if it is come kind of record to represent 3 different seats within what might be only a 9 year range (if she can win).

    She won't win
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,252
    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Ratters said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I'm not sure I agree.

    The bar to a successful criminal conviction for sexual assault and rape are, rightly, very high as they result in loss of liberty. In many cases the evidence is his word against hers, as the defence is about whether or not consent was given rather than whether the act occured (much easier to prove).

    I don't think victims of sexual assault should be prevented from making accusations publicly, just because they have not achieved a criminal conviction.

    People can choose who they wish to believe. And Brand can choose whether or not to sue for libel.
    What if you can’t afford to sue for libel? Admittedly, Brand easily can

    Hmm. Mixed feelings about this

    Far better for it to be done in court than on TV: what they are for
    The other point about this is that if you are making an allegation, and you get sued, you've got to fund your own defence, and also it can bankrupt you and destroy your reputation if on the balance of probabilities you are found to be lying, which could be the outcome if you aren't well represented and up against a well resourced opponent. Most people aren't going to do it.

    In some ways, the widespread dissatisfaction with how the legal system operates explains how a shadow justice system has emerged, where people get removed from public life by 'allegations of inappropriate behaviour', without any due process involved at all.

    The whole situation is a mess. I have no idea what the answer is.
    Funding the criminal justice system - while not the whole answer - would help.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013

    Have just seen the poll in Mid Beds. Con 20 / Lab 20 / LD 15. As I said previously, whichever party is polling in the lead needs to be given the run. LibDems need to back off. We're trying to remove the Tories, not empower them.

    Many thanks - not something I can say but I hope will be remembered when the LibDems are second in a constituency.
    The party rules on that front are stupid. You can't say it. Even when we're the contender to remove the Tory and a Labour vote only helps prop up their hopes of clinging on.

    Do we want to smash this monstrous party or not? Needs co-operation, and both Labour party rules and some activists are utterly pig-headed on the subject.
    Labour and the Lib Dems are no more allies than Labour and the SNP. The fact that these parties are all on the centre-left makes them rivals, not bedfellows.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,524

    DavidL said:

    Amember of Margaret Thatcher’s government sexually abused vulnerable young girls at a residential home at the centre of a police investigation, former residents have claimed.

    Between 1960 and 1993 thousands of “deprived girls” from Glasgow housing estates were sent on summer breaks to Fornethy House in the idyllic Angus countryside, north of Dundee.

    Detectives and government ministers are already examining claims that the supposed holiday home, operated by Glasgow council, was run like a prison, with children as young as six being routinely beaten, force-fed and stripped naked for minor misdemeanours.

    Now six women who visited in the 1970s have alleged they were molested at the sprawling 16th-century mansion by a group of “well-spoken men”, including Sir Nicholas Fairbairn QC, the disgraced former solicitor-general for Scotland.

    The survivors, now in their fifties and sixties, claim they were attacked after being ordered to sit on the knee of a florid, kilted man, who they now recognise as the late former Conservative MP for Perth and Kinross.

    They allege they were taken to drink-fuelled parties where they were abused by men wearing tweed suits, tartan and formal dress.

    It is claimed that another person who attended was Robert Henderson QC, a close friend of Fairbairn. In 2014 his daughter, Susie Henderson, now 56, waived her right to anonymity to reveal that she was raped by her late father, Fairbairn and other senior members of the Edinburgh legal establishment.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scots-minister-linked-to-abuse-of-poor-girls-gjhzb58fb

    There are some of that group that are still with us.
    I “love” how Nicholas Fairburn railed against the debauchery of gay sex and..er…Live Aid when he had literally raped his own daughter.
    I could believe almost anything of Fairbairn but I think that that allegation relates to Bob Henderson QC who was a close friend of his.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,548
    Foxy said:

    kjh said:

    I met a 26 year old teacher today who hadn't a clue who Eric Clapton was/is. God do I feel old.

    He peaked a half century ago. Who in the Eighties at the age of 26 could name the music stars of the 1930's?
    Will it make you feel worse @kjh if I tell you I'm a 40 year old teacher and I've never heard of him either?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087
    Foxy said:

    kjh said:

    I met a 26 year old teacher today who hadn't a clue who Eric Clapton was/is. God do I feel old.

    He peaked a half century ago. Who in the Eighties at the age of 26 could name the music stars of the 1930's?
    We're probably better at doing so today thanks to the internet and enhanced nostalgia.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,548
    Cyclefree said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Ratters said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I'm not sure I agree.

    The bar to a successful criminal conviction for sexual assault and rape are, rightly, very high as they result in loss of liberty. In many cases the evidence is his word against hers, as the defence is about whether or not consent was given rather than whether the act occured (much easier to prove).

    I don't think victims of sexual assault should be prevented from making accusations publicly, just because they have not achieved a criminal conviction.

    People can choose who they wish to believe. And Brand can choose whether or not to sue for libel.
    What if you can’t afford to sue for libel? Admittedly, Brand easily can

    Hmm. Mixed feelings about this

    Far better for it to be done in court than on TV: what they are for
    The other point about this is that if you are making an allegation, and you get sued, you've got to fund your own defence, and also it can bankrupt you and destroy your reputation if on the balance of probabilities you are found to be lying, which could be the outcome if you aren't well represented and up against a well resourced opponent. Most people aren't going to do it.

    In some ways, the widespread dissatisfaction with how the legal system operates explains how a shadow justice system has emerged, where people get removed from public life by 'allegations of inappropriate behaviour', without any due process involved at all.

    The whole situation is a mess. I have no idea what the answer is.
    Funding the criminal justice system - while not the whole answer - would help.
    As indeed would funding the NHS, the education system and the transport network.

    But that would mean (a) taxing people and (b) working productively.
  • Options
    CatMan said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I have never liked Brand, and am not entirely surprised at the allegations, but this should not be a trial by media, and it is hard to justify a special despatches.

    "Show biz star is a sexual predator" is hardly a shock after all.
    "Russell Brand is a sexual predator" is no shock at all.
    The revelations are so flaccid they’ll likely have the opposite effects that that intentioned, and Brand is likely to actually garner some sympathy.
    According to The Times article he committed rape. Why would that make someone sympathetic to him?
    OK, the r word wasn't used, but the 2006 GQ interview mentioned upthread (highlights here: https://twitter.com/Docstockk/status/1703070007695990819) used "sexual predator" without any negative connotations.

    It was Lad, it was Bants, it is uncomfortably recent history.

    Brand isn't the issue. The rest of us who chuckled along are.
  • Options

    DavidL said:

    Amember of Margaret Thatcher’s government sexually abused vulnerable young girls at a residential home at the centre of a police investigation, former residents have claimed.

    Between 1960 and 1993 thousands of “deprived girls” from Glasgow housing estates were sent on summer breaks to Fornethy House in the idyllic Angus countryside, north of Dundee.

    Detectives and government ministers are already examining claims that the supposed holiday home, operated by Glasgow council, was run like a prison, with children as young as six being routinely beaten, force-fed and stripped naked for minor misdemeanours.

    Now six women who visited in the 1970s have alleged they were molested at the sprawling 16th-century mansion by a group of “well-spoken men”, including Sir Nicholas Fairbairn QC, the disgraced former solicitor-general for Scotland.

    The survivors, now in their fifties and sixties, claim they were attacked after being ordered to sit on the knee of a florid, kilted man, who they now recognise as the late former Conservative MP for Perth and Kinross.

    They allege they were taken to drink-fuelled parties where they were abused by men wearing tweed suits, tartan and formal dress.

    It is claimed that another person who attended was Robert Henderson QC, a close friend of Fairbairn. In 2014 his daughter, Susie Henderson, now 56, waived her right to anonymity to reveal that she was raped by her late father, Fairbairn and other senior members of the Edinburgh legal establishment.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scots-minister-linked-to-abuse-of-poor-girls-gjhzb58fb

    There are some of that group that are still with us.
    I “love” how Nicholas Fairburn railed against the debauchery of gay sex and..er…Live Aid when he had literally raped his own daughter.
    Raped his friend's daughter, not his own, seems to be the allegation. Some poor subbing on the Times.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    Leon said:

    CatMan said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I have never liked Brand, and am not entirely surprised at the allegations, but this should not be a trial by media, and it is hard to justify a special despatches.

    "Show biz star is a sexual predator" is hardly a shock after all.
    "Russell Brand is a sexual predator" is no shock at all.
    The revelations are so flaccid they’ll likely have the opposite effects that that intentioned, and Brand is likely to actually garner some sympathy.
    According to The Times article he committed rape. Why would that make someone sympathetic to him?
    Because he is charismatic and liked by many. Obviously not many PB-ers, but hey

    The fans will see an agenda to bring him down, the ambivalent might agree

    Also, Brand has been “open” about his predatory womanizing, along with his drugging and drinking. This isn’t some Weinstein being unmasked, let alone a Jimmy Savile

    That doesn’t excuse it, of course, but it is a different context to many attempted exposes

    Weinstein was fairly open, I think. It's just that nobody cared in Hollywood. That crowd still lionise Polanski, after all.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,797

    Farooq said:

    The sensible range for when America became a superpower is between 1898 and 1945. And date outside those ranges is wrong, and any date within those ranges is justifiable.

    It's perhaps helpful to think of it as a gradual becoming rather than happening one bright April morning.

    I disagree

    The US only took over the UK/Empire economically in 1911. Arguably it wasn’t even a great power (no ability to force project) at that point

    “Superpower” had no meaning as a term in a multipolar world. After 1946 that changed and the US/Russia were superpowers
    That puts you at the 1945 end, surely?
    If you can't name the USA a superpower when it was fighting a naval and air war in the Pacific, a land and air war in Europe and Africa, and being the only country in the world with nuclear weapons, then what even is a superpower?

    1946 is already definitively too late. The USA was a superpower before that point.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    CatMan said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I have never liked Brand, and am not entirely surprised at the allegations, but this should not be a trial by media, and it is hard to justify a special despatches.

    "Show biz star is a sexual predator" is hardly a shock after all.
    "Russell Brand is a sexual predator" is no shock at all.
    The revelations are so flaccid they’ll likely have the opposite effects that that intentioned, and Brand is likely to actually garner some sympathy.
    According to The Times article he committed rape. Why would that make someone sympathetic to him?
    He will have committed rape when a court finds him guilty of committing rape. Not until.

    As a prominent poster here will attest.

    The Times has, I imagine, couched their accusation in rather more cautious terms.
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    Idle political fact - Flick Drummond was MP for Portsmouth South 2015-17, is the current MP for Meon Valley since 2019, and is the candidate for Winchester for the next GE.

    Now, granted, her current seat is being abolished and about 1/4 of Winchester is made up of her current seat, but it's sufficiently different that I wonder if it is come kind of record to represent 3 different seats within what might be only a 9 year range (if she can win).

    George Galloway, was MP for three different constituencies in the space of seven years.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,725

    DavidL said:

    Amember of Margaret Thatcher’s government sexually abused vulnerable young girls at a residential home at the centre of a police investigation, former residents have claimed.

    Between 1960 and 1993 thousands of “deprived girls” from Glasgow housing estates were sent on summer breaks to Fornethy House in the idyllic Angus countryside, north of Dundee.

    Detectives and government ministers are already examining claims that the supposed holiday home, operated by Glasgow council, was run like a prison, with children as young as six being routinely beaten, force-fed and stripped naked for minor misdemeanours.

    Now six women who visited in the 1970s have alleged they were molested at the sprawling 16th-century mansion by a group of “well-spoken men”, including Sir Nicholas Fairbairn QC, the disgraced former solicitor-general for Scotland.

    The survivors, now in their fifties and sixties, claim they were attacked after being ordered to sit on the knee of a florid, kilted man, who they now recognise as the late former Conservative MP for Perth and Kinross.

    They allege they were taken to drink-fuelled parties where they were abused by men wearing tweed suits, tartan and formal dress.

    It is claimed that another person who attended was Robert Henderson QC, a close friend of Fairbairn. In 2014 his daughter, Susie Henderson, now 56, waived her right to anonymity to reveal that she was raped by her late father, Fairbairn and other senior members of the Edinburgh legal establishment.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scots-minister-linked-to-abuse-of-poor-girls-gjhzb58fb

    There are some of that group that are still with us.
    I “love” how Nicholas Fairburn railed against the debauchery of gay sex and..er…Live Aid when he had literally raped his own daughter.
    Raped his friend's daughter, not his own, seems to be the allegation. Some poor subbing on the Times.
    Lol

    I shouldn’t, but: lol

    Yes that is “fairly poor subbing”
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,715
    boulay said:

    Chris said:

    Tres said:

    kle4 said:

    I do actually forget what Brand originally did. Was he a comedian, a singer, an actor?

    He was a stand-up who got gigs presenting shows on MTV/radio, then moved into acting.
    Wasn't he an astrologer originally?
    Wasn’t that Russell Grant?
    I'm giggling that it is possible to mix up Russell Grant with Russell Brand
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,524
    boulay said:

    Chris said:

    Tres said:

    kle4 said:

    I do actually forget what Brand originally did. Was he a comedian, a singer, an actor?

    He was a stand-up who got gigs presenting shows on MTV/radio, then moved into acting.
    Wasn't he an astrologer originally?
    Wasn’t that Russell Grant?
    I knew you were going to say that.
  • Options
    RattersRatters Posts: 808
    A relevant point in these Brand accusations is a political one, rather than alleged crimes: should a 30-year old having sex with a 16+year old be legal given the imbalance in maturity and power?

    As someone in my early 30s, I'm amazed people my age can view someone so young as anything other than a child. So my answer would be 'no' and that the general age of consent should be raised, with an exception for teenagers having sex with people their own age.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,978

    Farooq said:

    The sensible range for when America became a superpower is between 1898 and 1945. And date outside those ranges is wrong, and any date within those ranges is justifiable.

    It's perhaps helpful to think of it as a gradual becoming rather than happening one bright April morning.

    I disagree

    The US only took over the UK/Empire economically in 1911. Arguably it wasn’t even a great power (no ability to force project) at that point

    “Superpower” had no meaning as a term in a multipolar world. After 1946 that changed and the US/Russia were superpowers
    By 1900 the USA was the world's largest economy. One of several reasons that it drew so many immigrants.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,715
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    kjh said:

    I met a 26 year old teacher today who hadn't a clue who Eric Clapton was/is. God do I feel old.

    He peaked a half century ago. Who in the Eighties at the age of 26 could name the music stars of the 1930's?
    Will it make you feel worse @kjh if I tell you I'm a 40 year old teacher and I've never heard of him either?
    Yep.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,252

    Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I have never liked Brand, and am not entirely surprised at the allegations, but this should not be a trial by media, and it is hard to justify a special despatches.

    "Show biz star is a sexual predator" is hardly a shock after all.
    Unpleasant attitude that seems awfully close to that anaesthetists letter a few days ago.

    Whether something's a shock or not, sexual assault is still wrong.

    And the only way we're going to have women be treated with respect is if these concerns get aired, even when they're not shocking. Until they are.
    I have no problem with such a portfolio of evidence being handed over to appropriate police forces and courts, but a trial by media risks prejudicing a fair trial.
    That's upto the alleged victims, which do they prefer?

    Too often victims are "encouraged" to keep the abuse quiet or dismissed or not taken seriously, and the same perpetrator abuses many people none of whom make the connection as they're all staying quiet.

    The Me Too movement did a good job by letting people know they're not alone. That's a good thing, not something to be frowned upon.

    When the allegations about Weinstein, or Harris, or other predators made it to light it encouraged other victims to step forward. That is a good thing.

    Sunlight is one of the best disinfectants.
    That speaking up led to criminal trials, which is exactly what should happen. And what should happen here - if there is evidence for the allegations of crimes in the UK.
    Agreed 100%

    The idea it is "take it to the Police, but otherwise STFU and say nothing in public" is the solution is not a working one.

    All it does is make victims feel isolated and alone, and if the Police don't take them seriously then what can they do? Whereas if they speak up, and it turns out the same person has done this to many people, then the Police suddenly have to take them seriously.
    Women tend to know who the creeps are around them and that information does get shared on an informal basis. It is speaking up about it to the authorities to get something done which is more difficult and which is not done for a whole variety of reasons, some of them entirely understandable.

    I did not report my rape to the police because I was young, ashamed, felt guilty and would have died rather than put my mother and family through the pain and heartache of knowing what had happened. It was a long time ago and maybe attitudes were different then. Police attitudes certainly were. So it is not just lack of knowledge that causes silence.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,715
    Foxy said:

    kjh said:

    I met a 26 year old teacher today who hadn't a clue who Eric Clapton was/is. God do I feel old.

    He peaked a half century ago. Who in the Eighties at the age of 26 could name the music stars of the 1930's?
    Yes but we are talking about Eric Clapton. Eric Clapton for goodness sake.
  • Options
    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,803

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I have never liked Brand, and am not entirely surprised at the allegations, but this should not be a trial by media, and it is hard to justify a special despatches.

    "Show biz star is a sexual predator" is hardly a shock after all.
    Unpleasant attitude that seems awfully close to that anaesthetists letter a few days ago.

    Whether something's a shock or not, sexual assault is still wrong.

    And the only way we're going to have women be treated with respect is if these concerns get aired, even when they're not shocking. Until they are.
    I have no problem with such a portfolio of evidence being handed over to appropriate police forces and courts, but a trial by media risks prejudicing a fair trial.
    That's upto the alleged victims, which do they prefer?

    Too often victims are "encouraged" to keep the abuse quiet or dismissed or not taken seriously, and the same perpetrator abuses many people none of whom make the connection as they're all staying quiet.

    The Me Too movement did a good job by letting people know they're not alone. That's a good thing, not something to be frowned upon.

    When the allegations about Weinstein, or Harris, or other predators made it to light it encouraged other victims to step forward. That is a good thing.

    Sunlight is one of the best disinfectants.
    Just out of interest, imagine you are in the following situation.
    You are accused of sexual assault at work and have been found to have engaged in gross misconduct. You need to go in to a hearing to decide if you are to be dismissed.
    The detail is that you are accused of brushing against a female colleague inappropriately, even though you have no recollection of doing it.
    How do you defend yourself?
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,046
    Foxy said:

    kjh said:

    I met a 26 year old teacher today who hadn't a clue who Eric Clapton was/is. God do I feel old.

    He peaked a half century ago. Who in the Eighties at the age of 26 could name the music stars of the 1930's?
    My TA hadn't heard of Tina Turner when she died.
  • Options
    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Ratters said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I'm not sure I agree.

    The bar to a successful criminal conviction for sexual assault and rape are, rightly, very high as they result in loss of liberty. In many cases the evidence is his word against hers, as the defence is about whether or not consent was given rather than whether the act occured (much easier to prove).

    I don't think victims of sexual assault should be prevented from making accusations publicly, just because they have not achieved a criminal conviction.

    People can choose who they wish to believe. And Brand can choose whether or not to sue for libel.
    What if you can’t afford to sue for libel? Admittedly, Brand easily can

    Hmm. Mixed feelings about this

    Far better for it to be done in court than on TV: what they are for
    The other point about this is that if you are making an allegation, and you get sued, you've got to fund your own defence, and also it can bankrupt you and destroy your reputation if on the balance of probabilities you are found to be lying, which could be the outcome if you aren't well represented and up against a well resourced opponent. Most people aren't going to do it.

    In some ways, the widespread dissatisfaction with how the legal system operates explains how a shadow justice system has emerged, where people get removed from public life by 'allegations of inappropriate behaviour', without any due process involved at all.

    The whole situation is a mess. I have no idea what the answer is.
    Funding the criminal justice system - while not the whole answer - would help.
    As indeed would funding the NHS, the education system and the transport network.

    But that would mean (a) taxing people and (b) working productively.
    (c) spending taxes that are raised on public services, rather than redistributing them towards client voters instead.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,548
    edited September 2023

    kle4 said:

    Idle political fact - Flick Drummond was MP for Portsmouth South 2015-17, is the current MP for Meon Valley since 2019, and is the candidate for Winchester for the next GE.

    Now, granted, her current seat is being abolished and about 1/4 of Winchester is made up of her current seat, but it's sufficiently different that I wonder if it is come kind of record to represent 3 different seats within what might be only a 9 year range (if she can win).

    George Galloway, was MP for three different constituencies in the space of seven years.
    Charles James Fox was MP for Westminster, Orkney and then Westminster again from 1783-85, if that helps.
  • Options

    DavidL said:

    Amember of Margaret Thatcher’s government sexually abused vulnerable young girls at a residential home at the centre of a police investigation, former residents have claimed.

    Between 1960 and 1993 thousands of “deprived girls” from Glasgow housing estates were sent on summer breaks to Fornethy House in the idyllic Angus countryside, north of Dundee.

    Detectives and government ministers are already examining claims that the supposed holiday home, operated by Glasgow council, was run like a prison, with children as young as six being routinely beaten, force-fed and stripped naked for minor misdemeanours.

    Now six women who visited in the 1970s have alleged they were molested at the sprawling 16th-century mansion by a group of “well-spoken men”, including Sir Nicholas Fairbairn QC, the disgraced former solicitor-general for Scotland.

    The survivors, now in their fifties and sixties, claim they were attacked after being ordered to sit on the knee of a florid, kilted man, who they now recognise as the late former Conservative MP for Perth and Kinross.

    They allege they were taken to drink-fuelled parties where they were abused by men wearing tweed suits, tartan and formal dress.

    It is claimed that another person who attended was Robert Henderson QC, a close friend of Fairbairn. In 2014 his daughter, Susie Henderson, now 56, waived her right to anonymity to reveal that she was raped by her late father, Fairbairn and other senior members of the Edinburgh legal establishment.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scots-minister-linked-to-abuse-of-poor-girls-gjhzb58fb

    There are some of that group that are still with us.
    I “love” how Nicholas Fairburn railed against the debauchery of gay sex and..er…Live Aid when he had literally raped his own daughter.
    Raped his friend's daughter, not his own, seems to be the allegation. Some poor subbing on the Times.
    The Oxford comma would have fixed that.
  • Options
    CatMan said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I have never liked Brand, and am not entirely surprised at the allegations, but this should not be a trial by media, and it is hard to justify a special despatches.

    "Show biz star is a sexual predator" is hardly a shock after all.
    "Russell Brand is a sexual predator" is no shock at all.
    The revelations are so flaccid they’ll likely have the opposite effects that that intentioned, and Brand is likely to actually garner some sympathy.
    According to The Times article he committed rape. Why would that make someone sympathetic to him?
    The lady in question was already in a sexual relationship with Brand and turned up in the early hours of the morning at Brand’s house.

    She then alleges Brand forced himself on her.

    I personally have zero sympathy for Brand, but you can see why he might find sufficient wiggle-room here to shrug it off.

    Compare also with Trump, who simply seems to have raped Jean Caroll (at least according to a civil court) out of the blue, and yet nobody seems to care.
  • Options
    .
    Sean_F said:

    Have just seen the poll in Mid Beds. Con 20 / Lab 20 / LD 15. As I said previously, whichever party is polling in the lead needs to be given the run. LibDems need to back off. We're trying to remove the Tories, not empower them.

    Many thanks - not something I can say but I hope will be remembered when the LibDems are second in a constituency.
    The party rules on that front are stupid. You can't say it. Even when we're the contender to remove the Tory and a Labour vote only helps prop up their hopes of clinging on.

    Do we want to smash this monstrous party or not? Needs co-operation, and both Labour party rules and some activists are utterly pig-headed on the subject.
    Labour and the Lib Dems are no more allies than Labour and the SNP. The fact that these parties are all on the centre-left makes them rivals, not bedfellows.
    Define allies. We have a common enemy. Listen to the Ed Davey interview by Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart. His mission is to beat the Tories. That means putting Labour into office - not that they will get unconditional support, but that they are the preferred choice in a duopoly.
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    kle4 said:

    Idle political fact - Flick Drummond was MP for Portsmouth South 2015-17, is the current MP for Meon Valley since 2019, and is the candidate for Winchester for the next GE.

    Now, granted, her current seat is being abolished and about 1/4 of Winchester is made up of her current seat, but it's sufficiently different that I wonder if it is come kind of record to represent 3 different seats within what might be only a 9 year range (if she can win).

    She won't though, will she? I'm not surprised that she's got the worst of the available South Hampshire seats (Suella nabbed Fareham and Waterlooville, who got Hamble Valley?), but she's the sort of amiable non-frother the party will need if it wants to change tack.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    Leon said:

    CatMan said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I have never liked Brand, and am not entirely surprised at the allegations, but this should not be a trial by media, and it is hard to justify a special despatches.

    "Show biz star is a sexual predator" is hardly a shock after all.
    "Russell Brand is a sexual predator" is no shock at all.
    The revelations are so flaccid they’ll likely have the opposite effects that that intentioned, and Brand is likely to actually garner some sympathy.
    According to The Times article he committed rape. Why would that make someone sympathetic to him?
    Because he is charismatic and liked by many. Obviously not many PB-ers, but hey

    The fans will see an agenda to bring him down, the ambivalent might agree

    Also, Brand has been “open” about his predatory womanizing, along with his drugging and drinking. This isn’t some Weinstein being unmasked, let alone a Jimmy Savile

    That doesn’t excuse it, of course, but it is a different context to many attempted exposes
    Russell has always been a gent when I have met him - and never once tried to force his attentions on me.

    I was in Hawaii when he was there filming, where my wife was a producer. It was the time of the Sachs disclosures. He was very cut up by that.

  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,548
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    kjh said:

    I met a 26 year old teacher today who hadn't a clue who Eric Clapton was/is. God do I feel old.

    He peaked a half century ago. Who in the Eighties at the age of 26 could name the music stars of the 1930's?
    My TA hadn't heard of Tina Turner when she died.
    How did you find out, given that dead people usually can't say who they have or haven't heard of?
  • Options
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    kjh said:

    I met a 26 year old teacher today who hadn't a clue who Eric Clapton was/is. God do I feel old.

    He peaked a half century ago. Who in the Eighties at the age of 26 could name the music stars of the 1930's?
    My TA hadn't heard of Tina Turner when she died.
    That’s nothing, my FINANCE DIRECTOR, hadn’t heard of Tina Turner.

    He is a Rishi Sunak type figure, no culture whatsoever.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,725
    edited September 2023
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    The sensible range for when America became a superpower is between 1898 and 1945. And date outside those ranges is wrong, and any date within those ranges is justifiable.

    It's perhaps helpful to think of it as a gradual becoming rather than happening one bright April morning.

    I disagree

    The US only took over the UK/Empire economically in 1911. Arguably it wasn’t even a great power (no ability to force project) at that point

    “Superpower” had no meaning as a term in a multipolar world. After 1946 that changed and the US/Russia were superpowers
    That puts you at the 1945 end, surely?
    If you can't name the USA a superpower when it was fighting a naval and air war in the Pacific, a land and air war in Europe and Africa, and being the only country in the world with nuclear weapons, then what even is a superpower?

    1946 is already definitively too late. The USA was a superpower before that point.
    A reasonable definition for a superpower, that I’ve seen, is “a power able to exert significant military and economic influence all around the world, at will”

    By this definition, Britain was the first, then America (and it remains so today), then maybe the USSR (but the economics is disputable), now we have America and China. That’s pretty much it

    Britain is notable coz we are such a relatively tiny country., The others are enormous. Yay, us
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited September 2023
    Russell Brand was a sex manic wrong'un, is anybody shocked? I am more shocked that such an open secret hasn't been reported before, especially after his self imposed exile from mainstream entertainment industry.

    Interesting the coverage of this versus burying of similar (and worse) stories about journalists.

    Nobody seems bothered the FT editor covered up a Guardian cover up about long term sexual abuse claims, and even after the NYT ran the story (after an FT who was a abused had to quit her job), nobody in the media seems interested.

    Same with the paedo education correspondent from the Indy / New Statesman.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,524
    Foxy said:

    Farooq said:

    The sensible range for when America became a superpower is between 1898 and 1945. And date outside those ranges is wrong, and any date within those ranges is justifiable.

    It's perhaps helpful to think of it as a gradual becoming rather than happening one bright April morning.

    I disagree

    The US only took over the UK/Empire economically in 1911. Arguably it wasn’t even a great power (no ability to force project) at that point

    “Superpower” had no meaning as a term in a multipolar world. After 1946 that changed and the US/Russia were superpowers
    By 1900 the USA was the world's largest economy. One of several reasons that it drew so many immigrants.
    One of my favourite history books is the Glory and the Dream, a popular history of the US from 1932 until the 1970s. In one of the earlier chapters captain Eisenhower is sent from the Pentagon to Congress to advise what is to be done about the veterans of WW 1 who were living in the parks of Washington waiting for their bonuses to be paid. To do so he had to complete a chit and then catch the tram to Congress, being careful to keep a receipt. Pre-war the US really only had one military service of any seriousness, and that was the Navy. The army was as impoverished as the rest of the country and the airforce barely existed.

    They did have fantastic industrial potential but it was only when that was properly applied to the armed forces in WW2 that they became a major military power.
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,340
    edited September 2023
    kjh said:

    Foxy said:

    kjh said:

    I met a 26 year old teacher today who hadn't a clue who Eric Clapton was/is. God do I feel old.

    He peaked a half century ago. Who in the Eighties at the age of 26 could name the music stars of the 1930's?
    Yes but we are talking about Eric Clapton. Eric Clapton for goodness sake.
    Yes, there's not knowing about the distant past, and then there's an appalling lack of general knowledge.
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    Ratters said:

    A relevant point in these Brand accusations is a political one, rather than alleged crimes: should a 30-year old having sex with a 16+year old be legal given the imbalance in maturity and power?

    As someone in my early 30s, I'm amazed people my age can view someone so young as anything other than a child. So my answer would be 'no' and that the general age of consent should be raised, with an exception for teenagers having sex with people their own age.

    16-year-olds used to be regarded as young adults; somewhere along the line we changed to seeing them as older children. This happened in the last 20 years or so, possibly as a result of raising the de facto school leaving age to 18 or even 21, or because of the greater appreciation of power disparities. If you are 30, you have grown up in this world.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,822
    edited September 2023
    darkage said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I have never liked Brand, and am not entirely surprised at the allegations, but this should not be a trial by media, and it is hard to justify a special despatches.

    "Show biz star is a sexual predator" is hardly a shock after all.
    Unpleasant attitude that seems awfully close to that anaesthetists letter a few days ago.

    Whether something's a shock or not, sexual assault is still wrong.

    And the only way we're going to have women be treated with respect is if these concerns get aired, even when they're not shocking. Until they are.
    I have no problem with such a portfolio of evidence being handed over to appropriate police forces and courts, but a trial by media risks prejudicing a fair trial.
    That's upto the alleged victims, which do they prefer?

    Too often victims are "encouraged" to keep the abuse quiet or dismissed or not taken seriously, and the same perpetrator abuses many people none of whom make the connection as they're all staying quiet.

    The Me Too movement did a good job by letting people know they're not alone. That's a good thing, not something to be frowned upon.

    When the allegations about Weinstein, or Harris, or other predators made it to light it encouraged other victims to step forward. That is a good thing.

    Sunlight is one of the best disinfectants.
    Just out of interest, imagine you are in the following situation.
    You are accused of sexual assault at work and have been found to have engaged in gross misconduct. You need to go in to a hearing to decide if you are to be dismissed.
    The detail is that you are accused of brushing against a female colleague inappropriately, even though you have no recollection of doing it.
    How do you defend yourself?
    Nitpicking but if you've been found to have engaged in gross misconduct then the hearing has already happened, I assume you mean you're accused of gross misconduct?

    I would probably say that I have no recollection of it happening and I'm sorry if it did, and it would have been unintentional if it happened because I don't recall it.

    And if I were on a disciplinary panel then without further evidence to say otherwise I'd probably accept that.

    OTOH then if it turns out that dozens of people come forward with the same accusation, then that puts meat on the bones and dismissal is probably the correct option. Which is why people should be encouraged to step forward, because if they do it can encourage others to realise they're not alone.

    Counter-interest, imagine you are in the following situation.

    You are a young woman [or man, it happens to men too] who has been sexually assaulted at work, by someone senior. You bring forward allegations via the appropriate channels but those get dismissed out of hand by people who don't want to hear it, or deal with it. What should you do?
  • Options
    Ratters said:

    A relevant point in these Brand accusations is a political one, rather than alleged crimes: should a 30-year old having sex with a 16+year old be legal given the imbalance in maturity and power?

    Be interesting to see some of Huw Edwards supporters take on this.....
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,252

    Russell Brand was a sex manic wrong'un, is anybody shocked? I am more shocked that such an open secret hasn't been reported before, especially after his self imposed exile from mainstream entertainment industry.

    Interesting the coverage of this versus burying of similar (and worse) stories about journalists.

    Nobody seems bothered the FT editor covered up a Guardian cover up about long term sexual abuse claims, and even after the NYT ran the story (after an FT who was a abused had to quit her job), nobody in the media seems interested.

    Same with the paedo education correspondent from the Indy / New Statesman.

    Or indeed Peter Wilby.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,094
    Cyclefree said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Ratters said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I'm not sure I agree.

    The bar to a successful criminal conviction for sexual assault and rape are, rightly, very high as they result in loss of liberty. In many cases the evidence is his word against hers, as the defence is about whether or not consent was given rather than whether the act occured (much easier to prove).

    I don't think victims of sexual assault should be prevented from making accusations publicly, just because they have not achieved a criminal conviction.

    People can choose who they wish to believe. And Brand can choose whether or not to sue for libel.
    What if you can’t afford to sue for libel? Admittedly, Brand easily can

    Hmm. Mixed feelings about this

    Far better for it to be done in court than on TV: what they are for
    The other point about this is that if you are making an allegation, and you get sued, you've got to fund your own defence, and also it can bankrupt you and destroy your reputation if on the balance of probabilities you are found to be lying, which could be the outcome if you aren't well represented and up against a well resourced opponent. Most people aren't going to do it.

    In some ways, the widespread dissatisfaction with how the legal system operates explains how a shadow justice system has emerged, where people get removed from public life by 'allegations of inappropriate behaviour', without any due process involved at all.

    The whole situation is a mess. I have no idea what the answer is.
    Funding the criminal justice system - while not the whole answer - would help.
    It’s an essential building block though. Many rape cases are currently taking 5 years to get to court - that isn’t justice for anyone….
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,921
    Sean_F said:

    Have just seen the poll in Mid Beds. Con 20 / Lab 20 / LD 15. As I said previously, whichever party is polling in the lead needs to be given the run. LibDems need to back off. We're trying to remove the Tories, not empower them.

    Many thanks - not something I can say but I hope will be remembered when the LibDems are second in a constituency.
    The party rules on that front are stupid. You can't say it. Even when we're the contender to remove the Tory and a Labour vote only helps prop up their hopes of clinging on.

    Do we want to smash this monstrous party or not? Needs co-operation, and both Labour party rules and some activists are utterly pig-headed on the subject.
    Labour and the Lib Dems are no more allies than Labour and the SNP. The fact that these parties are all on the centre-left makes them rivals, not bedfellows.
    Indeed - it's well known the Conservatives merely see Labour as the opposition while the LDs and others are the enemy.

    The Conservatives know, even if they finish up with 100 seats next time, as long as they are the second largest party in the Commons, they remain the alternate Government and in time, whether that be five years or twenty five years, they will once again be the governing party.

    The ultimate nightmare would be for them to finish third in terms of seats (seats matter, votes don't) as that would be an existential threat for the party. That's not likely currently or, short of a schism, at any time in the future so as long as the LDs are kept in their box defeat to Labour, although painful, is at least palatable.

    In that regard, it proabably suits the Conservatives to see Labour win seats like Mid Bedfordshire (if the seat can't be held).
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,524

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    kjh said:

    I met a 26 year old teacher today who hadn't a clue who Eric Clapton was/is. God do I feel old.

    He peaked a half century ago. Who in the Eighties at the age of 26 could name the music stars of the 1930's?
    My TA hadn't heard of Tina Turner when she died.
    That’s nothing, my FINANCE DIRECTOR, hadn’t heard of Tina Turner.

    He is a Rishi Sunak type figure, no culture whatsoever.
    But she's simply the best.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,524

    Ratters said:

    A relevant point in these Brand accusations is a political one, rather than alleged crimes: should a 30-year old having sex with a 16+year old be legal given the imbalance in maturity and power?

    Be interesting to see some of Huw Edwards supporters take on this.....
    I had almost forgotten that he existed (Edwards, that is). Its all gone very, very quiet.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,725
    Ratters said:

    A relevant point in these Brand accusations is a political one, rather than alleged crimes: should a 30-year old having sex with a 16+year old be legal given the imbalance in maturity and power?

    As someone in my early 30s, I'm amazed people my age can view someone so young as anything other than a child. So my answer would be 'no' and that the general age of consent should be raised, with an exception for teenagers having sex with people their own age.

    No wonder your generation doesn’t have any sex and barely registers on the testosterone-o-meter

    if you have an age of consent, you have an age of consent. What are you gonna do, barge into hotel bedrooms saying aha! She is but 19 and you are 31, you must go to prison for 63 years!
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,822
    edited September 2023
    kjh said:

    Foxy said:

    kjh said:

    I met a 26 year old teacher today who hadn't a clue who Eric Clapton was/is. God do I feel old.

    He peaked a half century ago. Who in the Eighties at the age of 26 could name the music stars of the 1930's?
    Yes but we are talking about Eric Clapton. Eric Clapton for goodness sake.
    I'm in my 40s and Eric Clapton has never been big in my adult lifetime. I know him, from the prior generation, not my own.

    Why should those who are almost another generation removed necessarily know about him now? Do you know the artists of the 1930s?

    If you're old enough to remember Clapton from when he was current then its not that you feel old, its that you are old.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087
    eek said:

    Cyclefree said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Ratters said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I'm not sure I agree.

    The bar to a successful criminal conviction for sexual assault and rape are, rightly, very high as they result in loss of liberty. In many cases the evidence is his word against hers, as the defence is about whether or not consent was given rather than whether the act occured (much easier to prove).

    I don't think victims of sexual assault should be prevented from making accusations publicly, just because they have not achieved a criminal conviction.

    People can choose who they wish to believe. And Brand can choose whether or not to sue for libel.
    What if you can’t afford to sue for libel? Admittedly, Brand easily can

    Hmm. Mixed feelings about this

    Far better for it to be done in court than on TV: what they are for
    The other point about this is that if you are making an allegation, and you get sued, you've got to fund your own defence, and also it can bankrupt you and destroy your reputation if on the balance of probabilities you are found to be lying, which could be the outcome if you aren't well represented and up against a well resourced opponent. Most people aren't going to do it.

    In some ways, the widespread dissatisfaction with how the legal system operates explains how a shadow justice system has emerged, where people get removed from public life by 'allegations of inappropriate behaviour', without any due process involved at all.

    The whole situation is a mess. I have no idea what the answer is.
    Funding the criminal justice system - while not the whole answer - would help.
    It’s an essential building block though. Many rape cases are currently taking 5 years to get to court - that isn’t justice for anyone….
    There is the risk of being on remand of course, but it feels like it may be worth no one pleading guilty to anything, since lengthy delays and a system at breaking point must increase the odds of getting off even if you are in fact pretty guilty.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited September 2023
    DavidL said:

    Ratters said:

    A relevant point in these Brand accusations is a political one, rather than alleged crimes: should a 30-year old having sex with a 16+year old be legal given the imbalance in maturity and power?

    Be interesting to see some of Huw Edwards supporters take on this.....
    I had almost forgotten that he existed (Edwards, that is). Its all gone very, very quiet.
    Its going to be like Labour report into Red Ken inability to get through an interview without mentioning Hitler / Jews, 3 years to write a report to work out he might have done some wrong stuff.
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    DavidL said:

    Amember of Margaret Thatcher’s government sexually abused vulnerable young girls at a residential home at the centre of a police investigation, former residents have claimed.

    Between 1960 and 1993 thousands of “deprived girls” from Glasgow housing estates were sent on summer breaks to Fornethy House in the idyllic Angus countryside, north of Dundee.

    Detectives and government ministers are already examining claims that the supposed holiday home, operated by Glasgow council, was run like a prison, with children as young as six being routinely beaten, force-fed and stripped naked for minor misdemeanours.

    Now six women who visited in the 1970s have alleged they were molested at the sprawling 16th-century mansion by a group of “well-spoken men”, including Sir Nicholas Fairbairn QC, the disgraced former solicitor-general for Scotland.

    The survivors, now in their fifties and sixties, claim they were attacked after being ordered to sit on the knee of a florid, kilted man, who they now recognise as the late former Conservative MP for Perth and Kinross.

    They allege they were taken to drink-fuelled parties where they were abused by men wearing tweed suits, tartan and formal dress.

    It is claimed that another person who attended was Robert Henderson QC, a close friend of Fairbairn. In 2014 his daughter, Susie Henderson, now 56, waived her right to anonymity to reveal that she was raped by her late father, Fairbairn and other senior members of the Edinburgh legal establishment.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scots-minister-linked-to-abuse-of-poor-girls-gjhzb58fb

    There are some of that group that are still with us.
    I “love” how Nicholas Fairburn railed against the debauchery of gay sex and..er…Live Aid when he had literally raped his own daughter.
    Raped his friend's daughter, not his own, seems to be the allegation. Some poor subbing on the Times.
    The Oxford comma would have fixed that.
    Look again. The Oxford comma might even make it worse. As General Melchett said, Oxford is a dump.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,797
    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    The sensible range for when America became a superpower is between 1898 and 1945. And date outside those ranges is wrong, and any date within those ranges is justifiable.

    It's perhaps helpful to think of it as a gradual becoming rather than happening one bright April morning.

    I disagree

    The US only took over the UK/Empire economically in 1911. Arguably it wasn’t even a great power (no ability to force project) at that point

    “Superpower” had no meaning as a term in a multipolar world. After 1946 that changed and the US/Russia were superpowers
    That puts you at the 1945 end, surely?
    If you can't name the USA a superpower when it was fighting a naval and air war in the Pacific, a land and air war in Europe and Africa, and being the only country in the world with nuclear weapons, then what even is a superpower?

    1946 is already definitively too late. The USA was a superpower before that point.
    A reasonable definition for a superpower, that I’ve seen, is “a power able to exert significant military and economic influence all around the world, at will”

    By this definition, Britain was the first, then America (and it remains so today), then maybe the USSR (but the economics is disputable), now we have America and China. That’s pretty much it

    Britain is notable coz we are such a relatively tiny country., The others are enormous. Yay, us
    I would suggest there are very strong arguments for naming Portugal, Spain, France, and Germany in that field. Germany is the sketchiest in terms of reach and duration, but the others seem pretty nailed on for some durations in their histories. Perhaps others?

    The nature of military power has obviously changed a lot, and the speed of being able to act at long distance has increased hugely, but I don't see how that falls down on your definition or any other reasonable definition.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087

    kjh said:

    Foxy said:

    kjh said:

    I met a 26 year old teacher today who hadn't a clue who Eric Clapton was/is. God do I feel old.

    He peaked a half century ago. Who in the Eighties at the age of 26 could name the music stars of the 1930's?
    Yes but we are talking about Eric Clapton. Eric Clapton for goodness sake.
    I'm in my 40s and Eric Clapton has never been big in my adult lifetime. I know him, from the prior generation, not my own.

    Why should those who are almost another generation removed necessarily know about him now? Do you know the artists of the 1930s?

    If you're old enough to remember Clapton from when he was current then its not that you feel old, its that you are old.
    Fraid so. I know the name, sure, but other than that? Meh.

    Happens to all of us - when the news starts talking about Olivia Rodrigo and Mr Beast I'm vaguely aware of the names but am very clear it is for a generation not my own.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,150
    kjh said:

    boulay said:

    Chris said:

    Tres said:

    kle4 said:

    I do actually forget what Brand originally did. Was he a comedian, a singer, an actor?

    He was a stand-up who got gigs presenting shows on MTV/radio, then moved into acting.
    Wasn't he an astrologer originally?
    Wasn’t that Russell Grant?
    I'm giggling that it is possible to mix up Russell Grant with Russell Brand
    I suppose I should read Hello Magazine.

    Mind you, I was a bit surprised that the plump guy with curly hair had been accused of sexually assaulting all those women.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,822
    edited September 2023
    Leon said:

    Ratters said:

    A relevant point in these Brand accusations is a political one, rather than alleged crimes: should a 30-year old having sex with a 16+year old be legal given the imbalance in maturity and power?

    As someone in my early 30s, I'm amazed people my age can view someone so young as anything other than a child. So my answer would be 'no' and that the general age of consent should be raised, with an exception for teenagers having sex with people their own age.

    No wonder your generation doesn’t have any sex and barely registers on the testosterone-o-meter

    if you have an age of consent, you have an age of consent. What are you gonna do, barge into hotel bedrooms saying aha! She is but 19 and you are 31, you must go to prison for 63 years!
    In many countries the age of consent is 18, albeit there's an exception for prosecution for those of comparable ages.

    Quite frankly 16 year olds are children, anyone middle aged or older sleeping with them is wrong.
  • Options
    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,803
    Cyclefree said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Ratters said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I'm not sure I agree.

    The bar to a successful criminal conviction for sexual assault and rape are, rightly, very high as they result in loss of liberty. In many cases the evidence is his word against hers, as the defence is about whether or not consent was given rather than whether the act occured (much easier to prove).

    I don't think victims of sexual assault should be prevented from making accusations publicly, just because they have not achieved a criminal conviction.

    People can choose who they wish to believe. And Brand can choose whether or not to sue for libel.
    What if you can’t afford to sue for libel? Admittedly, Brand easily can

    Hmm. Mixed feelings about this

    Far better for it to be done in court than on TV: what they are for
    The other point about this is that if you are making an allegation, and you get sued, you've got to fund your own defence, and also it can bankrupt you and destroy your reputation if on the balance of probabilities you are found to be lying, which could be the outcome if you aren't well represented and up against a well resourced opponent. Most people aren't going to do it.

    In some ways, the widespread dissatisfaction with how the legal system operates explains how a shadow justice system has emerged, where people get removed from public life by 'allegations of inappropriate behaviour', without any due process involved at all.

    The whole situation is a mess. I have no idea what the answer is.
    Funding the criminal justice system - while not the whole answer - would help.
    Ok - but isn't the root of the problem that it is too hard to prove these cases 'beyond reasonable doubt', because it is too easy to create plausible deniability on the part of the accused, particularly when both parties know each other?
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,161

    Ratters said:

    A relevant point in these Brand accusations is a political one, rather than alleged crimes: should a 30-year old having sex with a 16+year old be legal given the imbalance in maturity and power?

    As someone in my early 30s, I'm amazed people my age can view someone so young as anything other than a child. So my answer would be 'no' and that the general age of consent should be raised, with an exception for teenagers having sex with people their own age.

    16-year-olds used to be regarded as young adults; somewhere along the line we changed to seeing them as older children. This happened in the last 20 years or so, possibly as a result of raising the de facto school leaving age to 18 or even 21, or because of the greater appreciation of power disparities. If you are 30, you have grown up in this world.
    One of the many things wrong with today's society is the infantilisation of adults and the adultisation of children. Ambiguity should be avoided here and an age of consent mandated and firmly observed. None of this sliding-scale gubbins of "oh she acted maturely": kids are kids, grown-ups are grown-ups, and the boundary is birthday X where "X" is defined in law
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,150

    kjh said:

    Foxy said:

    kjh said:

    I met a 26 year old teacher today who hadn't a clue who Eric Clapton was/is. God do I feel old.

    He peaked a half century ago. Who in the Eighties at the age of 26 could name the music stars of the 1930's?
    Yes but we are talking about Eric Clapton. Eric Clapton for goodness sake.
    I'm in my 40s and Eric Clapton has never been big in my adult lifetime.
    You're just begging for someone to paraphrase Sunset Boulevard.
  • Options

    kjh said:

    Foxy said:

    kjh said:

    I met a 26 year old teacher today who hadn't a clue who Eric Clapton was/is. God do I feel old.

    He peaked a half century ago. Who in the Eighties at the age of 26 could name the music stars of the 1930's?
    Yes but we are talking about Eric Clapton. Eric Clapton for goodness sake.
    I'm in my 40s and Eric Clapton has never been big in my adult lifetime. I know him, from the prior generation, not my own.

    Why should those who are almost another generation removed necessarily know about him now? Do you know the artists of the 1930s?

    If you're old enough to remember Clapton from when he was current then its not that you feel old, its that you are old.
    Absolute bollocks.

    In the 90s he was top of the charts with “Tears in Heaven”, “Unplugged”, and shagging Sheryl Crowe.

    Anyone 40 and over should know who he is.

    Probably everyone else, too, given some of his recorded legacy. Obviously nowadays he’s the definition of gammon-rock.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,725
    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    The sensible range for when America became a superpower is between 1898 and 1945. And date outside those ranges is wrong, and any date within those ranges is justifiable.

    It's perhaps helpful to think of it as a gradual becoming rather than happening one bright April morning.

    I disagree

    The US only took over the UK/Empire economically in 1911. Arguably it wasn’t even a great power (no ability to force project) at that point

    “Superpower” had no meaning as a term in a multipolar world. After 1946 that changed and the US/Russia were superpowers
    That puts you at the 1945 end, surely?
    If you can't name the USA a superpower when it was fighting a naval and air war in the Pacific, a land and air war in Europe and Africa, and being the only country in the world with nuclear weapons, then what even is a superpower?

    1946 is already definitively too late. The USA was a superpower before that point.
    A reasonable definition for a superpower, that I’ve seen, is “a power able to exert significant military and economic influence all around the world, at will”

    By this definition, Britain was the first, then America (and it remains so today), then maybe the USSR (but the economics is disputable), now we have America and China. That’s pretty much it

    Britain is notable coz we are such a relatively tiny country., The others are enormous. Yay, us
    I would suggest there are very strong arguments for naming Portugal, Spain, France, and Germany in that field. Germany is the sketchiest in terms of reach and duration, but the others seem pretty nailed on for some durations in their histories. Perhaps others?

    The nature of military power has obviously changed a lot, and the speed of being able to act at long distance has increased hugely, but I don't see how that falls down on your definition or any other reasonable definition.
    Nope. None of those powers could exert power globally pre the Industrial Revolution, so they are out. Later on, France and Germany could always be thwarted by the Royal Navy (much to the chagrin of Napoleon and the Kaiser), whereas Britain roamed free

    I believe my list of historical superpowers is canonical

    UK
    USA
    China


    USSR (pending VAR)
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087
    CatMan said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I have never liked Brand, and am not entirely surprised at the allegations, but this should not be a trial by media, and it is hard to justify a special despatches.

    "Show biz star is a sexual predator" is hardly a shock after all.
    "Russell Brand is a sexual predator" is no shock at all.
    The revelations are so flaccid they’ll likely have the opposite effects that that intentioned, and Brand is likely to actually garner some sympathy.
    According to The Times article he committed rape. Why would that make someone sympathetic to him?
    Being attacked, even if it is proven to be deserved later, is sufficient to make peopel sympathetic in some eyes.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,548
    viewcode said:

    Ratters said:

    A relevant point in these Brand accusations is a political one, rather than alleged crimes: should a 30-year old having sex with a 16+year old be legal given the imbalance in maturity and power?

    As someone in my early 30s, I'm amazed people my age can view someone so young as anything other than a child. So my answer would be 'no' and that the general age of consent should be raised, with an exception for teenagers having sex with people their own age.

    16-year-olds used to be regarded as young adults; somewhere along the line we changed to seeing them as older children. This happened in the last 20 years or so, possibly as a result of raising the de facto school leaving age to 18 or even 21, or because of the greater appreciation of power disparities. If you are 30, you have grown up in this world.
    One of the many things wrong with today's society is the infantilisation of adults and the adultisation of children. Ambiguity should be avoided here and an age of consent mandated and firmly observed. None of this sliding-scale gubbins of "oh she acted maturely": kids are kids, grown-ups are grown-ups, and the boundary is birthday X where "X" is defined in law
    We have got to stop treating children like adults and adults like children.

    Some random political geek in about 2009.

    Shame he never got into power to put that into effect.

    Can't even remember his name now. Something like David Kilwhillie.
  • Options
    viewcode said:

    glw said:

    viewcode said:

    If your only fanbase is online, you're not A-list. Tom Cruise does not have a podcast

    That's really not true. Some of the biggest stars for kids today are people who are almost entirely online. Nobody over 30 will have heard of them but they can still be hugely popular and make a lot of money across social media and streaming platforms.
    Oh, I acknowledge the money, it's the influence over voting behavior I question.
    Behaviour.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,890
    edited September 2023
    In the 1960s/70s, 13 and over seems to have been considered fair game.

    It’s very hard to understand that from the perspective of 2023, but I like the concept upthread that society deemed teenagers to be young adults as opposed to old children.
  • Options

    Leon said:

    Ratters said:

    A relevant point in these Brand accusations is a political one, rather than alleged crimes: should a 30-year old having sex with a 16+year old be legal given the imbalance in maturity and power?

    As someone in my early 30s, I'm amazed people my age can view someone so young as anything other than a child. So my answer would be 'no' and that the general age of consent should be raised, with an exception for teenagers having sex with people their own age.

    No wonder your generation doesn’t have any sex and barely registers on the testosterone-o-meter

    if you have an age of consent, you have an age of consent. What are you gonna do, barge into hotel bedrooms saying aha! She is but 19 and you are 31, you must go to prison for 63 years!
    In many countries the age of consent is 18, albeit there's an exception for prosecution for those of comparable ages.

    Quite frankly 16 year olds are children, anyone middle aged or older sleeping with them is wrong.
    They certainy shouldn't be allowed to vote either....

    (Deliberately written to allow misinterpretation)
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,725

    Leon said:

    Ratters said:

    A relevant point in these Brand accusations is a political one, rather than alleged crimes: should a 30-year old having sex with a 16+year old be legal given the imbalance in maturity and power?

    As someone in my early 30s, I'm amazed people my age can view someone so young as anything other than a child. So my answer would be 'no' and that the general age of consent should be raised, with an exception for teenagers having sex with people their own age.

    No wonder your generation doesn’t have any sex and barely registers on the testosterone-o-meter

    if you have an age of consent, you have an age of consent. What are you gonna do, barge into hotel bedrooms saying aha! She is but 19 and you are 31, you must go to prison for 63 years!
    In many countries the age of consent is 18, albeit there's an exception for prosecution for those of comparable ages.

    Quite frankly 16 year olds are children, anyone middle aged or older sleeping with them is wrong.
    Please list the countries with an age of consent of 18, and I believe you - even you - will realise the insanity of your argument
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited September 2023
    Is this Dispatches programme going to be 90 mins of Wussselly Verbosity Brand allegations, or do we think the Times got that part of a wider story and there are others?
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,822
    edited September 2023

    kjh said:

    Foxy said:

    kjh said:

    I met a 26 year old teacher today who hadn't a clue who Eric Clapton was/is. God do I feel old.

    He peaked a half century ago. Who in the Eighties at the age of 26 could name the music stars of the 1930's?
    Yes but we are talking about Eric Clapton. Eric Clapton for goodness sake.
    I'm in my 40s and Eric Clapton has never been big in my adult lifetime. I know him, from the prior generation, not my own.

    Why should those who are almost another generation removed necessarily know about him now? Do you know the artists of the 1930s?

    If you're old enough to remember Clapton from when he was current then its not that you feel old, its that you are old.
    Absolute bollocks.

    In the 90s he was top of the charts with “Tears in Heaven”, “Unplugged”, and shagging Sheryl Crowe.

    Anyone 40 and over should know who he is.

    Probably everyone else, too, given some of his recorded legacy. Obviously nowadays he’s the definition of gammon-rock.
    I deliberately said in my adult lifetime.

    I know who he is, but I was nine when Tears in heaven was released. Not my adult lifetime and before the birth of anyone 26.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,548
    edited September 2023

    In the 1960s/70s, 13 and over seems to have been considered fair game.

    It’s very hard to understand that from the perspective of 2023, but I like the concept upthread that society deemed teenagers to be young adults as opposed to old children.

    In the 1920s a Labour MP went to the Home Secretary to ask for clemency for a constituent who had been sent to prison for three months.

    The Home Secretary concerned declined. Knowing that this MP was a magistrate, he asked what sentence he would have given out.

    'I'd have given the bastard double, Jix, but you see, he's a constituent.'

    The crime was the violent rape of a twelve year old girl.

    It's really disturbing to reflect that this was a time that wasn't tried on indictment and got a sentence barely longer than those twattish judges in Scotland and Stoke hand out today.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,161

    viewcode said:

    glw said:

    viewcode said:

    If your only fanbase is online, you're not A-list. Tom Cruise does not have a podcast

    That's really not true. Some of the biggest stars for kids today are people who are almost entirely online. Nobody over 30 will have heard of them but they can still be hugely popular and make a lot of money across social media and streaming platforms.
    Oh, I acknowledge the money, it's the influence over voting behavior I question.
    Behaviour.
    I don't have the level of fine motor control I used to have and US spelling is fractionally quicker. But yes, you are correct: my bad.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087
    viewcode said:

    Ratters said:

    A relevant point in these Brand accusations is a political one, rather than alleged crimes: should a 30-year old having sex with a 16+year old be legal given the imbalance in maturity and power?

    As someone in my early 30s, I'm amazed people my age can view someone so young as anything other than a child. So my answer would be 'no' and that the general age of consent should be raised, with an exception for teenagers having sex with people their own age.

    16-year-olds used to be regarded as young adults; somewhere along the line we changed to seeing them as older children. This happened in the last 20 years or so, possibly as a result of raising the de facto school leaving age to 18 or even 21, or because of the greater appreciation of power disparities. If you are 30, you have grown up in this world.
    One of the many things wrong with today's society is the infantilisation of adults and the adultisation of children. Ambiguity should be avoided here and an age of consent mandated and firmly observed. None of this sliding-scale gubbins of "oh she acted maturely": kids are kids, grown-ups are grown-ups, and the boundary is birthday X where "X" is defined in law
    Where to draw the lines can be tricky sometimes, there will be strong debate about where it should lie, but I'd agree our cultural position on it can be pretty confused at present. In some ways we lionise youth, about listening to their views on things (people love a young activist) and mock the stuck in their ways of the middle aged and old, with a presumption from some that if the youth are into something that'd good. But on the other hand we sometimes act like people in their late teens and early 20s are still children, too fragile for the real world, and even communications to all adults is often framed in child like and patronising terms.
  • Options

    Foxy said:

    As of 2017, the US "foreign born" population was estimated at more than 44 million. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Foreign-born_population

    So, currently, it is probably around 50 million. No doubt there are more precise estimates, but given the number of illegals in the US, I think it unwise to put much faith in any of them.

    This part surprised me, recently: "Roughly 4.6 million, or one-in-ten, Black people in the U.S. were born in a different country as of 2019, up from 3% in 1980. By 2060, the U.S. Census Bureau projects that this number will increase to 9.5 million, or more than double the current level (the Census Bureau only offers projections for single race groups)."
    source: https://www.pewresearch.org/race-ethnicity/2022/01/20/one-in-ten-black-people-living-in-the-u-s-are-immigrants/

    Yep. Not only that but Nigerians are the most likely immigrant group to have a degree. Despite being only 1% of Black Americans they are 25% of the Black students at Harvard Business School.

    https://medium.com/@joecarleton/why-nigerian-immigrants-are-the-most-successful-ethnic-group-in-the-u-s-23a7ea5a0832

    Given how much money it takes to get into
    an American college, it helps that they're all princes with millions to give away to anybody who'd answer their emails.
    I know you were being funny (and it raised a smile) but as a philosophical question why is it ok to stereotype Nigerians as being scammers but not, say, to associate the Irish with being dumb?
  • Options
    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    The sensible range for when America became a superpower is between 1898 and 1945. And date outside those ranges is wrong, and any date within those ranges is justifiable.

    It's perhaps helpful to think of it as a gradual becoming rather than happening one bright April morning.

    I disagree

    The US only took over the UK/Empire economically in 1911. Arguably it wasn’t even a great power (no ability to force project) at that point

    “Superpower” had no meaning as a term in a multipolar world. After 1946 that changed and the US/Russia were superpowers
    That puts you at the 1945 end, surely?
    If you can't name the USA a superpower when it was fighting a naval and air war in the Pacific, a land and air war in Europe and Africa, and being the only country in the world with nuclear weapons, then what even is a superpower?

    1946 is already definitively too late. The USA was a superpower before that point.
    A reasonable definition for a superpower, that I’ve seen, is “a power able to exert significant military and economic influence all around the world, at will”

    By this definition, Britain was the first, then America (and it remains so today), then maybe the USSR (but the economics is disputable), now we have America and China. That’s pretty much it

    Britain is notable coz we are such a relatively tiny country., The others are enormous. Yay, us
    I would suggest there are very strong arguments for naming Portugal, Spain, France, and Germany in that field. Germany is the sketchiest in terms of reach and duration, but the others seem pretty nailed on for some durations in their histories. Perhaps others?

    The nature of military power has obviously changed a lot, and the speed of being able to act at long distance has increased hugely, but I don't see how that falls down on your definition or any other reasonable definition.
    Nope. None of those powers could exert power globally pre the Industrial Revolution, so they are out. Later on, France and Germany could always be thwarted by the Royal Navy (much to the chagrin of Napoleon and the Kaiser), whereas Britain roamed free

    I believe my list of historical superpowers is canonical

    UK
    USA
    China


    USSR (pending VAR)
    We didn't 'roam free' - even in the days of Palmerston and 'Civis Romanus Sum', we were quite careful which enemies we picked. We were quite happy to bombard China, but we never seriously got into it with the USA, in fact after the US Civil War we compensated the Union for the damage done by the Alabama. We weren't omnipotent, and we were probably the better world power for it.
  • Options

    kjh said:

    Foxy said:

    kjh said:

    I met a 26 year old teacher today who hadn't a clue who Eric Clapton was/is. God do I feel old.

    He peaked a half century ago. Who in the Eighties at the age of 26 could name the music stars of the 1930's?
    Yes but we are talking about Eric Clapton. Eric Clapton for goodness sake.
    I'm in my 40s and Eric Clapton has never been big in my adult lifetime. I know him, from the prior generation, not my own.

    Why should those who are almost another generation removed necessarily know about him now? Do you know the artists of the 1930s?

    If you're old enough to remember Clapton from when he was current then its not that you feel old, its that you are old.
    Pretty impoverished existence though - only seeking out art and culture from your own narrow generational range.
  • Options
    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    The sensible range for when America became a superpower is between 1898 and 1945. And date outside those ranges is wrong, and any date within those ranges is justifiable.

    It's perhaps helpful to think of it as a gradual becoming rather than happening one bright April morning.

    I disagree

    The US only took over the UK/Empire economically in 1911. Arguably it wasn’t even a great power (no ability to force project) at that point

    “Superpower” had no meaning as a term in a multipolar world. After 1946 that changed and the US/Russia were superpowers
    That puts you at the 1945 end, surely?
    If you can't name the USA a superpower when it was fighting a naval and air war in the Pacific, a land and air war in Europe and Africa, and being the only country in the world with nuclear weapons, then what even is a superpower?

    1946 is already definitively too late. The USA was a superpower before that point.
    A reasonable definition for a superpower, that I’ve seen, is “a power able to exert significant military and economic influence all around the world, at will”

    By this definition, Britain was the first, then America (and it remains so today), then maybe the USSR (but the economics is disputable), now we have America and China. That’s pretty much it

    Britain is notable coz we are such a relatively tiny country., The others are enormous. Yay, us
    I would suggest there are very strong arguments for naming Portugal, Spain, France, and Germany in that field. Germany is the sketchiest in terms of reach and duration, but the others seem pretty nailed on for some durations in their histories. Perhaps others?

    The nature of military power has obviously changed a lot, and the speed of being able to act at long distance has increased hugely, but I don't see how that falls down on your definition or any other reasonable definition.
    Nope. None of those powers could exert power globally pre the Industrial Revolution, so they are out. Later on, France and Germany could always be thwarted by the Royal Navy (much to the chagrin of Napoleon and the Kaiser), whereas Britain roamed free

    I believe my list of historical superpowers is canonical

    UK
    USA
    China


    USSR (pending VAR)
    Ancient Rome were the first superpower.
This discussion has been closed.