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Could LAB gain all 3 of the October by-elections? – politicalbetting.com

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  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,842
    ydoethur said:

    viewcode said:

    stodge said:

    Tamworth is for example is the Conservatives' 311th most marginal seat out of 365 seats won in December 2019....

    Did you mean 311th least marginal seat (ie a large majority?)

    It would be their 54th safest, surely?
    You say tomato, I say tomato.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,988
    In DC, some dog owners are helping out -- and having a little fun:
    "It’s Saturday night. Flavia and Jigs, a duo of mother-daughter border terriers, are shaking a rat. It is already dead. On one side of the alley wall in a tony part of Northwest Washington, young people are drinking espresso martinis. On the other, a rogue group of dog owners is taking the city’s rat problem into their own hands, and their dogs’ mouths."
    suorce$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/interactive/2023/rat-hunters-dc-dogs/

    I'm sure the "rogue group" would welcome dog owners who brought dogs from Britain. And I'm sure the British dogs would love it. There's a opportunity for a travel writer.

    (For the record: I have no strong opinion on the question of bad dogs in Britain -- but I do hope you don't ban corgis immediately, out of respect for your late queen.)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,935
    stodge said:

    viewcode said:

    stodge said:

    Tamworth is for example is the Conservatives' 311th most marginal seat out of 365 seats won in December 2019....

    Did you mean 311th least marginal seat (ie a large majority?)

    No, it is the 311th most marginal (at risk) - it is the 54th safest.
    Perhaps you should have led with that :smiley:
  • theakestheakes Posts: 929
    Mike, you seem guilty of talking Labour up, what about equality and a picture of Lib Dem stakeboards, in some roads there are 3!
  • TimS said:

    "Anyone who wants to get from Africa to Poland goes to our embassy, ​​buys a stamped visa at a special stand, fills in their details and off they go! PiS [governing party] migration policy," wrote Donald Tusk, the leader of the opposition Civic Platform party, on X (formerly Twitter).

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66827742

    I remember when Donald Tusk was idolised as the ideal statesman by various PBers.

    It seems he's now race baiting about immigrants.

    There was me naively thinking he was boasting about a great new initiative to encourage immigration into a demographically ageing society.

    It seems a very good policy to me. Like America when it was on the way to becoming a superpower.
    That's fake history. The USA had extremely low immigration in the period when it became a superpower, and before that was highly selective.

    image
    Didn’t the US become a superpower around 1900-20, which was a period of very high immigration on that graph?
    I would say great power rather than superpower. The term superpower only really came into being at the start of the Cold War.

    Even if you choose an earlier date, it's an ideologically-motivated lie to compare the US's immigration policies then with the contemporary West.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,503

    Curiously every single US state governor has net positive approval ratings:

    https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/governor-approval-ratings-july-2023

    So why does US government work better at a state level than a national level ?

    And is that pattern followed in other countries ?

    Though nearly every state models the Federal government in structure, with governor, state House of Representatives and State Senate and Supreme Court. Take Georgia for example:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_of_Georgia_(U.S._state)#:~:text=The state government of Georgia,legislature, executive, and judiciary.



  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,683

    TimS said:

    "Anyone who wants to get from Africa to Poland goes to our embassy, ​​buys a stamped visa at a special stand, fills in their details and off they go! PiS [governing party] migration policy," wrote Donald Tusk, the leader of the opposition Civic Platform party, on X (formerly Twitter).

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66827742

    I remember when Donald Tusk was idolised as the ideal statesman by various PBers.

    It seems he's now race baiting about immigrants.

    There was me naively thinking he was boasting about a great new initiative to encourage immigration into a demographically ageing society.

    It seems a very good policy to me. Like America when it was on the way to becoming a superpower.
    That's fake history. The USA had extremely low immigration in the period when it became a superpower, and before that was highly selective.

    image
    Didn’t the US become a superpower around 1900-20, which was a period of very high immigration on that graph?
    I would say great power rather than superpower. The term superpower only really came into being at the start of the Cold War.

    Even if you choose an earlier date, it's an ideologically-motivated lie to compare the US's immigration policies then with the contemporary West.
    It's never a lie to compare. You're denouncing the entire practice of history as an ideological lie, else.

    It might or might not be true to say that the policies were the same, and that might be ideologically motivated, but that's another matter.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833
    Right in the centre of Ljubljana, under the main bridge, there’s a beaver. Just chewing sticks and licking itself. Seems highly unlikely it lived there, presumably lost?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,503
    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    So for what it is worth I have had the following feed back from Mid Beds from an experienced PPC in a top Lib Dems target seat who was there on Friday:

    The independent thinks he is going to win. Nobody else does
    The Tory vote had collapsed but they don't know who to vote for
    Labour have consolidated their support but the soft Tory vote does not want to vote for them. They are not moving.
    There is a huge opportunity for the LDs but they need to convince the soft Tories to vote for them. At the moment the LDs are not getting the Labour vote

    Conclusion: Anything could happen, but Tories coming 3rd is not inconceivable. Tending to think the LDs have the best opportunity but I'm biased

    I suspect it will be LD who win. It's always easier for unhappy CON to vote for Liberal/LD than LAB. By election history since the War tells us this.

    Probably a 1 year job for the winning LD candidate!
    I agree with all of that and in particular the LDs difficulty in holding it if they win. It is much much harder for the LDs to win though if there is no tactical voting from Labour so it is not inconceivable that the Tory vote goes to the LDs but the Tories hold on or Lab just win with the Tory vote dropping but the LD vote not going up enough.

    However I think you are right and the soft Tory vote will enable the LDs to win even without the Lab tactical vote.
    Question is what proportion of those former/annoyed Tory voters can be arsed to actually turn out to vote for LibDems. I suspect not as many as the LibDems might hope.
    Given half the previous Conservative vote has abandoned the party, I think you've got a lot more to worry about than whether the annoyed, angry and disillusioned will vote LD, Labour or stay at home.
    We're getting a bit blase about mega by-election swings again. Tamworth and Mid Beds are both the sort of seats where, even with a General Election losing swing, the Conservatives ought to be able to hold on. If not, we're in Colourful Analogy territory.
    Indeed, Tamworth is for example is the Conservatives' 311th most marginal seat out of 365 seats won in December 2019. IF Labour win it, they almost certainly won't hold it but winning it forces the Conservatives to divert more resources back into that seat than they might otherwise done so.

    For the LDs, winning a seat means 24-48 hours in the media spotlight which can only help after years in obscurity. It gets Davey on to the tv screens and while most people still won't know who he is, perhaps a few more will not only see who he is but listen to what he has to say.

    That basically is what all the hours and days and weeks of work to win a seat represents - the chance to get noticed, the chance to be heard, the oxygen of publicity.
    The LibDems problem isn't the voters not knowing who Davey is. Their problem is the voters not knowing what they are. If they are an obvious "kick Bishop Brennan up the arse" candidate in a by-election, that is one thing. But in the General they look likely to be a minor coalition party for Labour, behind the SNP and all that might entail.
    That's all a bit premature to be honest but it's clearly going to be a Conservative "attack line" as it always has been. Vote LD, get Labour or something similar. Didn't make any difference in 1997 of course and if the electorate is determined to give the Conservatives a "kick up the arse" at the next GE, it won't matter then either.

    For the LDs, it's about those 30-50 seats where they start a clear if often distant second and whether a combination of Conservative switching, Conservative abstention and Labour tactical voting can get the candidate across the line.
    Of course the "Vote LD, Get Labour" attack line is a two edged sword. It might be exactly what Labour voters want to hear in LD target seats.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,851

    TimS said:

    "Anyone who wants to get from Africa to Poland goes to our embassy, ​​buys a stamped visa at a special stand, fills in their details and off they go! PiS [governing party] migration policy," wrote Donald Tusk, the leader of the opposition Civic Platform party, on X (formerly Twitter).

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66827742

    I remember when Donald Tusk was idolised as the ideal statesman by various PBers.

    It seems he's now race baiting about immigrants.

    There was me naively thinking he was boasting about a great new initiative to encourage immigration into a demographically ageing society.

    It seems a very good policy to me. Like America when it was on the way to becoming a superpower.
    That's fake history. The USA had extremely low immigration in the period when it became a superpower, and before that was highly selective.

    image
    Didn’t the US become a superpower around 1900-20, which was a period of very high immigration on that graph?
    I would say great power rather than superpower. The term superpower only really came into being at the start of the Cold War.

    Even if you choose an earlier date, it's an ideologically-motivated lie to compare the US's immigration policies then with the contemporary West.
    “ideologically-motivated lie”??! It’s a disagreement over the historical interpretation of an ill-defined term, not a lie. Don’t be such a snowflake!
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,071
    edited September 2023
    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I'm not sure I agree.

    The bar to a successful criminal conviction for sexual assault and rape are, rightly, very high as they result in loss of liberty. In many cases the evidence is his word against hers, as the defence is about whether or not consent was given rather than whether the act occured (much easier to prove).

    I don't think victims of sexual assault should be prevented from making accusations publicly, just because they have not achieved a criminal conviction.

    People can choose who they wish to believe. And Brand can choose whether or not to sue for libel.
  • Apart from being Russell Brand, what did Russell Brand ever actually do?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,503
    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I have never liked Brand, and am not entirely surprised at the allegations, but this should not be a trial by media, and it is hard to justify a special despatches.

    "Show biz star is a sexual predator" is hardly a shock after all.
  • The Brand revelations are squalid but not actually very revelatory.

    Bit of a damp squib, and not obvious why Channel 4 wants to clear the schedules, unless there is more to follow.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,683
    IanB2 said:

    Right in the centre of Ljubljana, under the main bridge, there’s a beaver. Just chewing sticks and licking itself. Seems highly unlikely it lived there, presumably lost?

    You get beavers in Slovenia anyway, so why shouldn't it live there? (Could of course be a youngster moving out from the family territory and getting a bit lost, like that walrus in Scarborough.) Seems mote likely than a zoo escape.

    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/mam.12216
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,441

    Apart from being Russell Brand, what did Russell Brand ever actually do?

    I think a lot of people are going to be staggered tonight when they find out his past - he’s managed to keep his role in the remake of Arthur and St Trinian’s out of the public realm for a long time but tonight the truth comes out.
  • This is a fairly interesting story:

    The US government designed and constructed a satellite in a year. They gave a launch company notice of a launch sometime within six months, and the satellite was mated to the rocket and ready for launch within a day of the 'go' being received. It was launched 27 hours after the 'go'.

    These are all *really* quick timescales; something the US military is becoming very keen on.

    Well done to Firefly for getting their first payload to orbit (on their third attempt).

    https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/09/firefly-and-space-force-demonstrate-ability-to-rapidly-launch-a-satellite/
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,842
    You and I both know a month is an eternity in a by-election and there's a lot which can and will change before polling day. The view the weekend before may be of more interest.
  • "French gynaecologist ignites row over refusal to treat trans woman"

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/french-gynaecologist-trans-woman-transition-gender-89lb5k0pl
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,441

    The Brand revelations are squalid but not actually very revelatory.

    Bit of a damp squib, and not obvious why Channel 4 wants to clear the schedules, unless there is more to follow.

    Is it just about him though tonight? I heard it was about a number of comedians, male and female, and a load of different criminal acts but looking wrong as the talk seems to be only about Brand.

  • boulay said:

    The Brand revelations are squalid but not actually very revelatory.

    Bit of a damp squib, and not obvious why Channel 4 wants to clear the schedules, unless there is more to follow.

    Is it just about him though tonight? I heard it was about a number of comedians, male and female, and a load of different criminal acts but looking wrong as the talk seems to be only about Brand.
    They were supposedly still editing the story yesterday so some of the allegations may have been lawyered out.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,905
    IanB2 said:

    Right in the centre of Ljubljana, under the main bridge, there’s a beaver. Just chewing sticks and licking itself. Seems highly unlikely it lived there, presumably lost?

    Quite likely it lives there. Several Swiss cities have beavers living in the middle of the action. The rewilding of beavers has - according to some - been TOO successful

    Don’t some UK towns now have otters living in the urban area? Perhaps they are escaping the sewage in the countryside
  • Labour now betting favourite in Mid Beds after Survation poll has them ahead with the LDs in third
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,503

    In DC, some dog owners are helping out -- and having a little fun:
    "It’s Saturday night. Flavia and Jigs, a duo of mother-daughter border terriers, are shaking a rat. It is already dead. On one side of the alley wall in a tony part of Northwest Washington, young people are drinking espresso martinis. On the other, a rogue group of dog owners is taking the city’s rat problem into their own hands, and their dogs’ mouths."
    suorce$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/interactive/2023/rat-hunters-dc-dogs/

    I'm sure the "rogue group" would welcome dog owners who brought dogs from Britain. And I'm sure the British dogs would love it. There's a opportunity for a travel writer.

    (For the record: I have no strong opinion on the question of bad dogs in Britain -- but I do hope you don't ban corgis immediately, out of respect for your late queen.)

    Rat-baiting was quite a popular gambling "sport" in Bitish Cities in Victorian times. Smaller terriers were favoured and 15 rats killed per minute an achievable rate of killing.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rat-baiting

    Possibly done in the USA too? But a Bully XL wouldn't be a great choice, better for the rival "sport" of dog fighting.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,683
    Farooq said:

    The sensible range for when America became a superpower is between 1898 and 1945. And date outside those ranges is wrong, and any date within those ranges is justifiable.

    It's perhaps helpful to think of it as a gradual becoming rather than happening one bright April morning.

    Western Hemisphere and Pacific domination before the rest, too. Also, maritime power preceded land power. The US Navy - with the expeditionary soldiers of the US Marines - was strong while the Army was still keeping the First Nations and the Mexicans under control.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,935

    "French gynaecologist ignites row over refusal to treat trans woman"

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/french-gynaecologist-trans-woman-transition-gender-89lb5k0pl

    Have they got a vulva and vagina? (the trans woman that is). I can't help thinking that might be relevant to the matter.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,905
    Ratters said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I'm not sure I agree.

    The bar to a successful criminal conviction for sexual assault and rape are, rightly, very high as they result in loss of liberty. In many cases the evidence is his word against hers, as the defence is about whether or not consent was given rather than whether the act occured (much easier to prove).

    I don't think victims of sexual assault should be prevented from making accusations publicly, just because they have not achieved a criminal conviction.

    People can choose who they wish to believe. And Brand can choose whether or not to sue for libel.
    What if you can’t afford to sue for libel? Admittedly, Brand easily can

    Hmm. Mixed feelings about this

    Far better for it to be done in court than on TV: what they are for
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,739

    Labour now betting favourite in Mid Beds after Survation poll has them ahead with the LDs in third

    It's a two-horse race?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,683
    Foxy said:

    In DC, some dog owners are helping out -- and having a little fun:
    "It’s Saturday night. Flavia and Jigs, a duo of mother-daughter border terriers, are shaking a rat. It is already dead. On one side of the alley wall in a tony part of Northwest Washington, young people are drinking espresso martinis. On the other, a rogue group of dog owners is taking the city’s rat problem into their own hands, and their dogs’ mouths."
    suorce$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/interactive/2023/rat-hunters-dc-dogs/

    I'm sure the "rogue group" would welcome dog owners who brought dogs from Britain. And I'm sure the British dogs would love it. There's a opportunity for a travel writer.

    (For the record: I have no strong opinion on the question of bad dogs in Britain -- but I do hope you don't ban corgis immediately, out of respect for your late queen.)

    Rat-baiting was quite a popular gambling "sport" in Bitish Cities in Victorian times. Smaller terriers were favoured and 15 rats killed per minute an achievable rate of killing.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rat-baiting

    Possibly done in the USA too? But a Bully XL wouldn't be a great choice, better for the rival "sport" of dog fighting.
    Jack Russells would be much better for the ratting.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,503
    Farooq said:

    The sensible range for when America became a superpower is between 1898 and 1945. And date outside those ranges is wrong, and any date within those ranges is justifiable.

    It's perhaps helpful to think of it as a gradual becoming rather than happening one bright April morning.

    Fair to say though that immigration peaked either before or shortly after that period. As a MAGA Republican supporter, @williamglenn should see current rates a sign that America is on the starting blocks for a similar boost.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,683
    Farooq said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    The sensible range for when America became a superpower is between 1898 and 1945. And date outside those ranges is wrong, and any date within those ranges is justifiable.

    It's perhaps helpful to think of it as a gradual becoming rather than happening one bright April morning.

    Western Hemisphere and Pacific domination before the rest, too. Also, maritime power preceded land power. The US Navy - with the expeditionary soldiers of the US Marines - was strong while the Army was still keeping the First Nations and the Mexicans under control.
    Look to industrial and economic power as well as military.
    Banana republics and all that.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,988
    Those interested in the legal changes in US immigration policies will want to study this oficial time line:
    https://www.uscis.gov/about-us/our-history/stories-from-the-archives/refugee-timeline

    Those interested in recent refugee policies will want to study this Pew report: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/10/07/key-facts-about-refugees-to-the-u-s/

    Key fact: "Even before the administration’s announcement, refugee resettlement in the U.S. had dropped to historic lows during Donald Trump’s presidency, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of State Department data. As a result, the U.S. is no longer the world’s top country for refugee admissions. It had previously led the world on this measure for decades, admitting more refugees each year than all other countries combined."
    (Links omitted.)

    If you glance at the graph, you will see that -- in some years -- the US has admitted more than two times as many refugees as "all other countries combined". (No doubt the Guardian gave the US credit for those policies, in those years.)

    (Most admitted refugees have been great people, though there are exceptions, for example, the Tsarnaev brothers. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dzhokhar_Tsarnaev )
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,503
    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    In DC, some dog owners are helping out -- and having a little fun:
    "It’s Saturday night. Flavia and Jigs, a duo of mother-daughter border terriers, are shaking a rat. It is already dead. On one side of the alley wall in a tony part of Northwest Washington, young people are drinking espresso martinis. On the other, a rogue group of dog owners is taking the city’s rat problem into their own hands, and their dogs’ mouths."
    suorce$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/interactive/2023/rat-hunters-dc-dogs/

    I'm sure the "rogue group" would welcome dog owners who brought dogs from Britain. And I'm sure the British dogs would love it. There's a opportunity for a travel writer.

    (For the record: I have no strong opinion on the question of bad dogs in Britain -- but I do hope you don't ban corgis immediately, out of respect for your late queen.)

    Rat-baiting was quite a popular gambling "sport" in Bitish Cities in Victorian times. Smaller terriers were favoured and 15 rats killed per minute an achievable rate of killing.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rat-baiting

    Possibly done in the USA too? But a Bully XL wouldn't be a great choice, better for the rival "sport" of dog fighting.
    Jack Russells would be much better for the ratting.
    My Podengo takes off after rats every now and again with great enthusiasm, but they generally get away to their holes.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,739

    Apart from being Russell Brand, what did Russell Brand ever actually do?

    Court to decide.
  • Foxy said:

    Curiously every single US state governor has net positive approval ratings:

    https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/governor-approval-ratings-july-2023

    So why does US government work better at a state level than a national level ?

    And is that pattern followed in other countries ?

    Though nearly every state models the Federal government in structure, with governor, state House of Representatives and State Senate and Supreme Court. Take Georgia for example:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_of_Georgia_(U.S._state)#:~:text=The state government of Georgia,legislature, executive, and judiciary.



    Indeed.

    But it seemingly works better, or at least those involved are more highly thought of, than the corresponding national system.

    I wonder if different types of people are attracted to national politics rather than various levels of local politics.
  • Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Right in the centre of Ljubljana, under the main bridge, there’s a beaver. Just chewing sticks and licking itself. Seems highly unlikely it lived there, presumably lost?

    Quite likely it lives there. Several Swiss cities have beavers living in the middle of the action. The rewilding of beavers has - according to some - been TOO successful

    Don’t some UK towns now have otters living in the urban area? Perhaps they are escaping the sewage in the countryside
    There's a great video of a rescue beaver living in a house instinctively trying to build a dam out of stuffed toys:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ImdlZtOU80
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,622
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Right in the centre of Ljubljana, under the main bridge, there’s a beaver. Just chewing sticks and licking itself. Seems highly unlikely it lived there, presumably lost?

    Quite likely it lives there. Several Swiss cities have beavers living in the middle of the action. The rewilding of beavers has - according to some - been TOO successful

    Don’t some UK towns now have otters living in the urban area? Perhaps they are escaping the sewage in the countryside
    They do. Even in Leeds.

    Despite all the (legitimate) complaints about sewage the rivers are much much cleaner than they used to be.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,622
    edited September 2023
    In gambling related news, a shame neither of these two could manage a win today:


    Chaz risked the trip up to watch but only got third.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979
    edited September 2023
    I was just watching A Haunting in Venice - I've never seen other screen adaptions of Poirot, just read a couple a long time ago, so is Poirot meant to be such a depressing sad sack of a character? Branagh is a great actor, but these movies make Poitot seem like he's so glum he's about to slit his wrists at any moment.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,757
    Carnyx said:

    kjh said:

    @Leon. Sorry been out all day, but you responded to my post where I said having a dog gets you to meet lots of people and you replied with, yes but only other dog owners.

    Not true. If you have a cute dog, like we have, you get a lot of attention from lots of non dog owners. In particular young ladies who go soppy over a cute playful dog..

    Classic strategy of at least one serial murderer, mind. (a) pooch is fine camouflage and a good excuse for being out and about at night (b) acts as bait.

    Edit: I hasten to add that I don't think you are one! And it reinforces your point very well indeed.
    It never crossed my mind what I was setting myself up for there. Thank goodness you don't think I am one. Phew!
  • TimS said:

    "Anyone who wants to get from Africa to Poland goes to our embassy, ​​buys a stamped visa at a special stand, fills in their details and off they go! PiS [governing party] migration policy," wrote Donald Tusk, the leader of the opposition Civic Platform party, on X (formerly Twitter).

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66827742

    I remember when Donald Tusk was idolised as the ideal statesman by various PBers.

    It seems he's now race baiting about immigrants.

    There was me naively thinking he was boasting about a great new initiative to encourage immigration into a demographically ageing society.

    It seems a very good policy to me. Like America when it was on the way to becoming a superpower.
    That's fake history. The USA had extremely low immigration in the period when it became a superpower, and before that was highly selective.

    image
    That graph looks off - has immigration to the US really collapsed that much between 2010 and 2020?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,454
    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I have never liked Brand, and am not entirely surprised at the allegations, but this should not be a trial by media, and it is hard to justify a special despatches.

    "Show biz star is a sexual predator" is hardly a shock after all.
    "Russell Brand is a sexual predator" is no shock at all.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,891
    edited September 2023

    TimS said:

    "Anyone who wants to get from Africa to Poland goes to our embassy, ​​buys a stamped visa at a special stand, fills in their details and off they go! PiS [governing party] migration policy," wrote Donald Tusk, the leader of the opposition Civic Platform party, on X (formerly Twitter).

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66827742

    I remember when Donald Tusk was idolised as the ideal statesman by various PBers.

    It seems he's now race baiting about immigrants.

    There was me naively thinking he was boasting about a great new initiative to encourage immigration into a demographically ageing society.

    It seems a very good policy to me. Like America when it was on the way to becoming a superpower.
    That's fake history. The USA had extremely low immigration in the period when it became a superpower, and before that was highly selective.

    image
    That graph looks off - has immigration to the US really collapsed that much between 2010 and 2020?
    If that's only measuring 2020 to date versus complete decades, without accounting for the fact its a partial decade, then yes because ~70% of the data for the 2020s isn't in yet.

    EDIT: Or its literally 2020 and that's a Covid effect.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,503
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Right in the centre of Ljubljana, under the main bridge, there’s a beaver. Just chewing sticks and licking itself. Seems highly unlikely it lived there, presumably lost?

    Quite likely it lives there. Several Swiss cities have beavers living in the middle of the action. The rewilding of beavers has - according to some - been TOO successful

    Don’t some UK towns now have otters living in the urban area? Perhaps they are escaping the sewage in the countryside
    Some Canadian friends were astonished that we were rewilding beavers as the local beavers kept trashing their gardens on Vancouver Island.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,454
    Chris said:

    Labour now betting favourite in Mid Beds after Survation poll has them ahead with the LDs in third

    It's a two-horse race?
    The Liberal Democrats can't win here?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,757

    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    So for what it is worth I have had the following feed back from Mid Beds from an experienced PPC in a top Lib Dems target seat who was there on Friday:

    The independent thinks he is going to win. Nobody else does
    The Tory vote had collapsed but they don't know who to vote for
    Labour have consolidated their support but the soft Tory vote does not want to vote for them. They are not moving.
    There is a huge opportunity for the LDs but they need to convince the soft Tories to vote for them. At the moment the LDs are not getting the Labour vote

    Conclusion: Anything could happen, but Tories coming 3rd is not inconceivable. Tending to think the LDs have the best opportunity but I'm biased

    I suspect it will be LD who win. It's always easier for unhappy CON to vote for Liberal/LD than LAB. By election history since the War tells us this.

    Probably a 1 year job for the winning LD candidate!
    I agree with all of that and in particular the LDs difficulty in holding it if they win. It is much much harder for the LDs to win though if there is no tactical voting from Labour so it is not inconceivable that the Tory vote goes to the LDs but the Tories hold on or Lab just win with the Tory vote dropping but the LD vote not going up enough.

    However I think you are right and the soft Tory vote will enable the LDs to win even without the Lab tactical vote.
    Question is what proportion of those former/annoyed Tory voters can be arsed to actually turn out to vote for LibDems. I suspect not as many as the LibDems might hope.
    Given half the previous Conservative vote has abandoned the party, I think you've got a lot more to worry about than whether the annoyed, angry and disillusioned will vote LD, Labour or stay at home.
    We're getting a bit blase about mega by-election swings again. Tamworth and Mid Beds are both the sort of seats where, even with a General Election losing swing, the Conservatives ought to be able to hold on. If not, we're in Colourful Analogy territory.
    Indeed, Tamworth is for example is the Conservatives' 311th most marginal seat out of 365 seats won in December 2019. IF Labour win it, they almost certainly won't hold it but winning it forces the Conservatives to divert more resources back into that seat than they might otherwise done so.

    For the LDs, winning a seat means 24-48 hours in the media spotlight which can only help after years in obscurity. It gets Davey on to the tv screens and while most people still won't know who he is, perhaps a few more will not only see who he is but listen to what he has to say.

    That basically is what all the hours and days and weeks of work to win a seat represents - the chance to get noticed, the chance to be heard, the oxygen of publicity.
    The LibDems problem isn't the voters not knowing who Davey is. Their problem is the voters not knowing what they are. If they are an obvious "kick Bishop Brennan up the arse" candidate in a by-election, that is one thing. But in the General they look likely to be a minor coalition party for Labour, behind the SNP and all that might entail.
    They want and need the publicity for a few days to get the poll ratings up which means a few more marginals fall in the GE. Simple as that.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,751
    @ydoethur must be getting extremely twitchy as this goes to the final over with 8 required.
  • In gambling related news, a shame neither of these two could manage a win today:


    Chaz risked the trip up to watch but only got third.

    The King arrived in an Audi, which surprised me since I am not au fait with royal jam jars. I suppose Rolls-Royce and Bentley are German-owned too, and Range Rover Indian, so maybe it's OK.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,751

    Chris said:

    Labour now betting favourite in Mid Beds after Survation poll has them ahead with the LDs in third

    It's a two-horse race?
    The Liberal Democrats can't win here?
    And they will fade pretty quickly if that perception takes hold. After all, other than embarrassing the government by losing a safe seat in a by election what is the point of the Lib Dems?
  • Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I have never liked Brand, and am not entirely surprised at the allegations, but this should not be a trial by media, and it is hard to justify a special despatches.

    "Show biz star is a sexual predator" is hardly a shock after all.
    "Russell Brand is a sexual predator" is no shock at all.
    The revelations are so flaccid they’ll likely have the opposite effects that that intentioned, and Brand is likely to actually garner some sympathy.
  • Amember of Margaret Thatcher’s government sexually abused vulnerable young girls at a residential home at the centre of a police investigation, former residents have claimed.

    Between 1960 and 1993 thousands of “deprived girls” from Glasgow housing estates were sent on summer breaks to Fornethy House in the idyllic Angus countryside, north of Dundee.

    Detectives and government ministers are already examining claims that the supposed holiday home, operated by Glasgow council, was run like a prison, with children as young as six being routinely beaten, force-fed and stripped naked for minor misdemeanours.

    Now six women who visited in the 1970s have alleged they were molested at the sprawling 16th-century mansion by a group of “well-spoken men”, including Sir Nicholas Fairbairn QC, the disgraced former solicitor-general for Scotland.

    The survivors, now in their fifties and sixties, claim they were attacked after being ordered to sit on the knee of a florid, kilted man, who they now recognise as the late former Conservative MP for Perth and Kinross.

    They allege they were taken to drink-fuelled parties where they were abused by men wearing tweed suits, tartan and formal dress.

    It is claimed that another person who attended was Robert Henderson QC, a close friend of Fairbairn. In 2014 his daughter, Susie Henderson, now 56, waived her right to anonymity to reveal that she was raped by her late father, Fairbairn and other senior members of the Edinburgh legal establishment.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scots-minister-linked-to-abuse-of-poor-girls-gjhzb58fb
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,751
    Dawson out. The foxes now favourites.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979
    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I have never liked Brand, and am not entirely surprised at the allegations, but this should not be a trial by media, and it is hard to justify a special despatches.

    "Show biz star is a sexual predator" is hardly a shock after all.
    Er, he's famous and its about sexual allegations, of course it's big news in the media landscape, even if he is c-list at best.

    Really cannot grasp your surprise at the way its been investigated and now reported.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,689
    Yeah clearly the 2010 to 2020 fall in that graph is fubar.
  • Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I have never liked Brand, and am not entirely surprised at the allegations, but this should not be a trial by media, and it is hard to justify a special despatches.

    "Show biz star is a sexual predator" is hardly a shock after all.
    Unpleasant attitude that seems awfully close to that anaesthetists letter a few days ago.

    Whether something's a shock or not, sexual assault is still wrong.

    And the only way we're going to have women be treated with respect is if these concerns get aired, even when they're not shocking. Until they are.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,454
    DavidL said:

    Chris said:

    Labour now betting favourite in Mid Beds after Survation poll has them ahead with the LDs in third

    It's a two-horse race?
    The Liberal Democrats can't win here?
    And they will fade pretty quickly if that perception takes hold. After all, other than embarrassing the government by losing a safe seat in a by election what is the point of the Lib Dems?
    A question to which they have singularly failed to posit any answer.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    edited September 2023

    TimS said:

    "Anyone who wants to get from Africa to Poland goes to our embassy, ​​buys a stamped visa at a special stand, fills in their details and off they go! PiS [governing party] migration policy," wrote Donald Tusk, the leader of the opposition Civic Platform party, on X (formerly Twitter).

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66827742

    I remember when Donald Tusk was idolised as the ideal statesman by various PBers.

    It seems he's now race baiting about immigrants.

    There was me naively thinking he was boasting about a great new initiative to encourage immigration into a demographically ageing society.

    It seems a very good policy to me. Like America when it was on the way to becoming a superpower.
    That's fake history. The USA had extremely low immigration in the period when it became a superpower, and before that was highly selective.

    image
    That graph looks off - has immigration to the US really collapsed that much between 2010 and 2020?
    If that's only measuring 2020 to date versus complete decades, without accounting for the fact its a partial decade, then yes because ~70% of the data for the 2020s isn't in yet.

    EDIT: Or its literally 2020 and that's a Covid effect.
    I think it's the first explanation. The source is here:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_immigration_to_the_United_States
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,905
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I have never liked Brand, and am not entirely surprised at the allegations, but this should not be a trial by media, and it is hard to justify a special despatches.

    "Show biz star is a sexual predator" is hardly a shock after all.
    Er, he's famous and its about sexual allegations, of course it's big news in the media landscape, even if he is c-list at best.

    Really cannot grasp your surprise at the way its been investigated and now reported.
    He’s really not C list. He has 6m followers. Online he’s A list for sure
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,739
    DavidL said:

    Chris said:

    Labour now betting favourite in Mid Beds after Survation poll has them ahead with the LDs in third

    It's a two-horse race?
    The Liberal Democrats can't win here?
    And they will fade pretty quickly if that perception takes hold. After all, other than embarrassing the government by losing a safe seat in a by election what is the point of the Lib Dems?
    The last really distinctive thing the Lib Dems stood for was in 2010 - putting the Tories into government in return for a referendum on an electoral reform they thought would benefit them, which they lost anyway.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979
    DavidL said:

    Chris said:

    Labour now betting favourite in Mid Beds after Survation poll has them ahead with the LDs in third

    It's a two-horse race?
    The Liberal Democrats can't win here?
    And they will fade pretty quickly if that perception takes hold. After all, other than embarrassing the government by losing a safe seat in a by election what is the point of the Lib Dems?
    Providing a non extreme option for those not wanting to vote Labour or Tory. It's a ten-twenty percent strategy, currently, more on the lower end.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,935
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I have never liked Brand, and am not entirely surprised at the allegations, but this should not be a trial by media, and it is hard to justify a special despatches.

    "Show biz star is a sexual predator" is hardly a shock after all.
    Er, he's famous and its about sexual allegations, of course it's big news in the media landscape, even if he is c-list at best.

    Really cannot grasp your surprise at the way its been investigated and now reported.
    He’s really not C list. He has 6m followers. Online he’s A list for sure
    If your only fanbase is online, you're not A-list. Tom Cruise does not have a podcast
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,441
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I have never liked Brand, and am not entirely surprised at the allegations, but this should not be a trial by media, and it is hard to justify a special despatches.

    "Show biz star is a sexual predator" is hardly a shock after all.
    Er, he's famous and its about sexual allegations, of course it's big news in the media landscape, even if he is c-list at best.

    Really cannot grasp your surprise at the way its been investigated and now reported.
    I’ve always thought it would be better if the paper or tv show went to the police and CPS with their evidence ad said along the lines of “we have put together a huge story/programme on this and so in return for giving you our evidence you keep us informed of the investigation, give us exclusive news of any charges and then if you charge we release the story. If you share with anyone else we publish.”

    I am not keen on them being the investigators, jury, judge because if it turns out later that their story wasn’t as it appeared it’s too late to take it back and the damage is done. There isn’t any point the truth even putting his shoes on as the lie will already be running away.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,751

    Amember of Margaret Thatcher’s government sexually abused vulnerable young girls at a residential home at the centre of a police investigation, former residents have claimed.

    Between 1960 and 1993 thousands of “deprived girls” from Glasgow housing estates were sent on summer breaks to Fornethy House in the idyllic Angus countryside, north of Dundee.

    Detectives and government ministers are already examining claims that the supposed holiday home, operated by Glasgow council, was run like a prison, with children as young as six being routinely beaten, force-fed and stripped naked for minor misdemeanours.

    Now six women who visited in the 1970s have alleged they were molested at the sprawling 16th-century mansion by a group of “well-spoken men”, including Sir Nicholas Fairbairn QC, the disgraced former solicitor-general for Scotland.

    The survivors, now in their fifties and sixties, claim they were attacked after being ordered to sit on the knee of a florid, kilted man, who they now recognise as the late former Conservative MP for Perth and Kinross.

    They allege they were taken to drink-fuelled parties where they were abused by men wearing tweed suits, tartan and formal dress.

    It is claimed that another person who attended was Robert Henderson QC, a close friend of Fairbairn. In 2014 his daughter, Susie Henderson, now 56, waived her right to anonymity to reveal that she was raped by her late father, Fairbairn and other senior members of the Edinburgh legal establishment.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scots-minister-linked-to-abuse-of-poor-girls-gjhzb58fb

    There are some of that group that are still with us.
  • TimS said:

    "Anyone who wants to get from Africa to Poland goes to our embassy, ​​buys a stamped visa at a special stand, fills in their details and off they go! PiS [governing party] migration policy," wrote Donald Tusk, the leader of the opposition Civic Platform party, on X (formerly Twitter).

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66827742

    I remember when Donald Tusk was idolised as the ideal statesman by various PBers.

    It seems he's now race baiting about immigrants.

    There was me naively thinking he was boasting about a great new initiative to encourage immigration into a demographically ageing society.

    It seems a very good policy to me. Like America when it was on the way to becoming a superpower.
    That's fake history. The USA had extremely low immigration in the period when it became a superpower, and before that was highly selective.

    image
    That graph looks off - has immigration to the US really collapsed that much between 2010 and 2020?
    If that's only measuring 2020 to date versus complete decades, without accounting for the fact its a partial decade, then yes because ~70% of the data for the 2020s isn't in yet.

    EDIT: Or its literally 2020 and that's a Covid effect.
    I think it's the first explanation. The source is here:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_immigration_to_the_United_States
    Seems like its both. The chart for individual years shows a dramatic fall for 2020 and a minor rebound for 2021 (and the data seems to stop there), so that presumably is a Covid effect.

    I don't see a data table to match the chart, just the charts.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979
    edited September 2023
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I have never liked Brand, and am not entirely surprised at the allegations, but this should not be a trial by media, and it is hard to justify a special despatches.

    "Show biz star is a sexual predator" is hardly a shock after all.
    Er, he's famous and its about sexual allegations, of course it's big news in the media landscape, even if he is c-list at best.

    Really cannot grasp your surprise at the way its been investigated and now reported.
    He’s really not C list. He has 6m followers. Online he’s A list for sure
    6m followers doesn't sound that much. Big youtubers have channels with tens or even a hundred million subscribers for example.

    In any case I was referring to general profile, he's not a big moviestar or major political force, though he has a decent audience and online following.

    It isn't denigrating him or the power of those with online focused audiences to note he's not mainstream big - guys like him are deliberately not mainstream. Gary Linekar has more followers, and I wouldn't call him A-list.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,905
    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I have never liked Brand, and am not entirely surprised at the allegations, but this should not be a trial by media, and it is hard to justify a special despatches.

    "Show biz star is a sexual predator" is hardly a shock after all.
    Er, he's famous and its about sexual allegations, of course it's big news in the media landscape, even if he is c-list at best.

    Really cannot grasp your surprise at the way its been investigated and now reported.
    He’s really not C list. He has 6m followers. Online he’s A list for sure
    If your only fanbase is online, you're not A-list. Tom Cruise does not have a podcast
    A fundamental misreading of modern culture. He’s a massive online influencer: that’s his shtick and he’s BIG within that

    He’s not trying to be a Tom Cruise type celeb. He’s a new type

    Many people will listen to what he says about Political issue X or Y, and reflect on it, and maybe act on it; Tom Cruise can’t do that
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,988
    As of 2017, the US "foreign born" population was estimated at more than 44 million. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Foreign-born_population

    So, currently, it is probably around 50 million. No doubt there are more precise estimates, but given the number of illegals in the US, I think it unwise to put much faith in any of them.

    This part surprised me, recently: "Roughly 4.6 million, or one-in-ten, Black people in the U.S. were born in a different country as of 2019, up from 3% in 1980. By 2060, the U.S. Census Bureau projects that this number will increase to 9.5 million, or more than double the current level (the Census Bureau only offers projections for single race groups)."
    source: https://www.pewresearch.org/race-ethnicity/2022/01/20/one-in-ten-black-people-living-in-the-u-s-are-immigrants/
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,441
    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I have never liked Brand, and am not entirely surprised at the allegations, but this should not be a trial by media, and it is hard to justify a special despatches.

    "Show biz star is a sexual predator" is hardly a shock after all.
    Er, he's famous and its about sexual allegations, of course it's big news in the media landscape, even if he is c-list at best.

    Really cannot grasp your surprise at the way its been investigated and now reported.
    He’s really not C list. He has 6m followers. Online he’s A list for sure
    If your only fanbase is online, you're not A-list. Tom Cruise does not have a podcast
    He does though. He pods about the worst cars he’s ever had to drive on film. It’s called “Transmission impossible”.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979
    I do actually forget what Brand originally did. Was he a comedian, a singer, an actor?
  • glwglw Posts: 9,892
    edited September 2023
    Russell Brand has always been a total berk. Even going way back to when he was on MTV part of his shtick was to make people very uncomfortable with his behaviour and questioning. So these latest allegations are very plausible. If someone is a creep in public there is a fair chance that it isn't an act and they are at least as bad in private.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    There are some bizarre people coming out in support of him - citing the mainstream media - but that doesn’t work if any of these allegations are proven true (if it does come to court)

    There’s a bizarre mindset of far right nutters who’ll support anyone blindly if it meant one up on this blob called “mainstream media”
    Russel Brand being a (former?) sleazebag isn't exactly news. News Corp really has had it if this is what passes for a scoop there these days.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,294
    edited September 2023
    There’s an old (2006) GQ interview of Brand by Piers Morgan, who asks whether being teetotal helps him be a “more successful sexual predator”.

    According to the Times, one of the victims - just 16 at the time - was allowed to date Brand because her mother “didn’t feel she could control who her daughter was meeting”. That was in…2006…

    No wonder the documentary is called “In Plain Sight”.
  • Have just seen the poll in Mid Beds. Con 20 / Lab 20 / LD 15. As I said previously, whichever party is polling in the lead needs to be given the run. LibDems need to back off. We're trying to remove the Tories, not empower them.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,892
    viewcode said:

    If your only fanbase is online, you're not A-list. Tom Cruise does not have a podcast

    That's really not true. Some of the biggest stars for kids today are people who are almost entirely online. Nobody over 30 will have heard of them but they can still be hugely popular and make a lot of money across social media and streaming platforms.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,503

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I have never liked Brand, and am not entirely surprised at the allegations, but this should not be a trial by media, and it is hard to justify a special despatches.

    "Show biz star is a sexual predator" is hardly a shock after all.
    Unpleasant attitude that seems awfully close to that anaesthetists letter a few days ago.

    Whether something's a shock or not, sexual assault is still wrong.

    And the only way we're going to have women be treated with respect is if these concerns get aired, even when they're not shocking. Until they are.
    I have no problem with such a portfolio of evidence being handed over to appropriate police forces and courts, but a trial by media risks prejudicing a fair trial.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,622

    In gambling related news, a shame neither of these two could manage a win today:


    Chaz risked the trip up to watch but only got third.

    The King arrived in an Audi, which surprised me since I am not au fait with royal jam jars. I suppose Rolls-Royce and Bentley are German-owned too, and Range Rover Indian, so maybe it's OK.
    I missed that - I was out on the course (as you can see). Did he take the train, I wonder? Might explain it.

    Security was a bit more mental than usual, as you'd expect, with police scrambler bikes buzzing about the local woods. I don't think they liked scallies like us standing by the rails but as it is a common there is sod all they could do about it.

    I presume they were expecting the orange paint crew.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,689
    kle4 said:

    I do actually forget what Brand originally did. Was he a comedian, a singer, an actor?

    He was a stand-up who got gigs presenting shows on MTV/radio, then moved into acting.
  • DavidL said:

    Amember of Margaret Thatcher’s government sexually abused vulnerable young girls at a residential home at the centre of a police investigation, former residents have claimed.

    Between 1960 and 1993 thousands of “deprived girls” from Glasgow housing estates were sent on summer breaks to Fornethy House in the idyllic Angus countryside, north of Dundee.

    Detectives and government ministers are already examining claims that the supposed holiday home, operated by Glasgow council, was run like a prison, with children as young as six being routinely beaten, force-fed and stripped naked for minor misdemeanours.

    Now six women who visited in the 1970s have alleged they were molested at the sprawling 16th-century mansion by a group of “well-spoken men”, including Sir Nicholas Fairbairn QC, the disgraced former solicitor-general for Scotland.

    The survivors, now in their fifties and sixties, claim they were attacked after being ordered to sit on the knee of a florid, kilted man, who they now recognise as the late former Conservative MP for Perth and Kinross.

    They allege they were taken to drink-fuelled parties where they were abused by men wearing tweed suits, tartan and formal dress.

    It is claimed that another person who attended was Robert Henderson QC, a close friend of Fairbairn. In 2014 his daughter, Susie Henderson, now 56, waived her right to anonymity to reveal that she was raped by her late father, Fairbairn and other senior members of the Edinburgh legal establishment.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scots-minister-linked-to-abuse-of-poor-girls-gjhzb58fb

    There are some of that group that are still with us.
    I “love” how Nicholas Fairburn railed against the debauchery of gay sex and..er…Live Aid when he had literally raped his own daughter.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979
    edited September 2023
    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    DavidL said:

    Chris said:

    Labour now betting favourite in Mid Beds after Survation poll has them ahead with the LDs in third

    It's a two-horse race?
    The Liberal Democrats can't win here?
    And they will fade pretty quickly if that perception takes hold. After all, other than embarrassing the government by losing a safe seat in a by election what is the point of the Lib Dems?
    The last really distinctive thing the Lib Dems stood for was in 2010 - putting the Tories into government in return for a referendum on an electoral reform they thought would benefit them, which they lost anyway.
    You may have missed 2019 when they put "STOP BREXIT" literally on the front cover of their manifesto. How much clearer do you need?
    You made it as far as the cover? More than most, well done.

    The Green Party got plaudits from me because their manifesto had working internal hyperlinks, which most do not bother with.

    Their cover is a question, and which is pretty funny in its boldness and unrealistic expectations


    The answer is never.
  • Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I have never liked Brand, and am not entirely surprised at the allegations, but this should not be a trial by media, and it is hard to justify a special despatches.

    "Show biz star is a sexual predator" is hardly a shock after all.
    Er, he's famous and its about sexual allegations, of course it's big news in the media landscape, even if he is c-list at best.

    Really cannot grasp your surprise at the way its been investigated and now reported.
    He’s really not C list. He has 6m followers. Online he’s A list for sure
    If your only fanbase is online, you're not A-list. Tom Cruise does not have a podcast
    A fundamental misreading of modern culture. He’s a massive online influencer: that’s his shtick and he’s BIG within that

    He’s not trying to be a Tom Cruise type celeb. He’s a new type

    Many people will listen to what he says about Political issue X or Y, and reflect on it, and maybe act on it; Tom Cruise can’t do that
    Social Media "Influencers" really aren't A-Listers.

    Its pathetic like saying that a video has a million views. It really doesn't mean much.

    Besides on YouTube channels get into the hundreds of millions, and most of those with tens of millions I really wouldn't consider A Listers either. 6 million sounds pathetic for "A List" claims.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,517

    Have just seen the poll in Mid Beds. Con 20 / Lab 20 / LD 15. As I said previously, whichever party is polling in the lead needs to be given the run. LibDems need to back off. We're trying to remove the Tories, not empower them.

    Many thanks - not something I can say but I hope will be remembered when the LibDems are second in a constituency.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,935
    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I have never liked Brand, and am not entirely surprised at the allegations, but this should not be a trial by media, and it is hard to justify a special despatches.

    "Show biz star is a sexual predator" is hardly a shock after all.
    Er, he's famous and its about sexual allegations, of course it's big news in the media landscape, even if he is c-list at best.

    Really cannot grasp your surprise at the way its been investigated and now reported.
    He’s really not C list. He has 6m followers. Online he’s A list for sure
    If your only fanbase is online, you're not A-list. Tom Cruise does not have a podcast
    A fundamental misreading of modern culture. He’s a massive online influencer: that’s his shtick and he’s BIG within that

    He’s not trying to be a Tom Cruise type celeb. He’s a new type

    Many people will listen to what he says about Political issue X or Y, and reflect on it, and maybe act on it; Tom Cruise can’t do that
    Whilst I am uncomfortably unsure about your general case, I am more certain about the specific case of Russell Brand. When he had the whole dont-vote-dont-vote thing followed by Ed Miliband popping round for a quick chat in 2015(?), it was generally thought to have made zero difference. I don't think he's gotten more influential since then.
  • Way off topic - in Austin, Texas State Senate is voting to acquit disgraced state attorney general Ken Paxton, mega Grifter-On-Parade of all impeachment charges.

    So far anyway, their almost done.

    live broadcast
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-LvndlWc90
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,935
    boulay said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I have never liked Brand, and am not entirely surprised at the allegations, but this should not be a trial by media, and it is hard to justify a special despatches.

    "Show biz star is a sexual predator" is hardly a shock after all.
    Er, he's famous and its about sexual allegations, of course it's big news in the media landscape, even if he is c-list at best.

    Really cannot grasp your surprise at the way its been investigated and now reported.
    He’s really not C list. He has 6m followers. Online he’s A list for sure
    If your only fanbase is online, you're not A-list. Tom Cruise does not have a podcast
    He does though. He pods about the worst cars he’s ever had to drive on film. It’s called “Transmission impossible”.
    GODSDAMMIT I BELIEVED YOU!

    :):):)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I have never liked Brand, and am not entirely surprised at the allegations, but this should not be a trial by media, and it is hard to justify a special despatches.

    "Show biz star is a sexual predator" is hardly a shock after all.
    Er, he's famous and its about sexual allegations, of course it's big news in the media landscape, even if he is c-list at best.

    Really cannot grasp your surprise at the way its been investigated and now reported.
    He’s really not C list. He has 6m followers. Online he’s A list for sure
    If your only fanbase is online, you're not A-list. Tom Cruise does not have a podcast
    A fundamental misreading of modern culture. He’s a massive online influencer: that’s his shtick and he’s BIG within that

    He’s not trying to be a Tom Cruise type celeb. He’s a new type

    Many people will listen to what he says about Political issue X or Y, and reflect on it, and maybe act on it; Tom Cruise can’t do that
    Social Media "Influencers" really aren't A-Listers.

    Its pathetic like saying that a video has a million views. It really doesn't mean much.

    Besides on YouTube channels get into the hundreds of millions, and most of those with tens of millions I really wouldn't consider A Listers either. 6 million sounds pathetic for "A List" claims.
    I can understand taking issue with me calling Brand C list. He's reasonably well known, and for whatever reason has some notable presence in online circles. But A list, whilst not a scientifically defined term by any means, surely means people of truly significant profile and influence, not people who get some good views on podcasts sometimes. Are the Triggernometry guys A-list?

    If it is elevated by one's online profile, then as you note there are far better candidates than Brand. If he's A list who are the B list?!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,240

    Amember of Margaret Thatcher’s government sexually abused vulnerable young girls at a residential home at the centre of a police investigation, former residents have claimed.

    Between 1960 and 1993 thousands of “deprived girls” from Glasgow housing estates were sent on summer breaks to Fornethy House in the idyllic Angus countryside, north of Dundee.

    Detectives and government ministers are already examining claims that the supposed holiday home, operated by Glasgow council, was run like a prison, with children as young as six being routinely beaten, force-fed and stripped naked for minor misdemeanours.

    Now six women who visited in the 1970s have alleged they were molested at the sprawling 16th-century mansion by a group of “well-spoken men”, including Sir Nicholas Fairbairn QC, the disgraced former solicitor-general for Scotland.

    The survivors, now in their fifties and sixties, claim they were attacked after being ordered to sit on the knee of a florid, kilted man, who they now recognise as the late former Conservative MP for Perth and Kinross.

    They allege they were taken to drink-fuelled parties where they were abused by men wearing tweed suits, tartan and formal dress.

    It is claimed that another person who attended was Robert Henderson QC, a close friend of Fairbairn. In 2014 his daughter, Susie Henderson, now 56, waived her right to anonymity to reveal that she was raped by her late father, Fairbairn and other senior members of the Edinburgh legal establishment.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scots-minister-linked-to-abuse-of-poor-girls-gjhzb58fb

    A close relative of mine was once molested by Fairbairn, and ended up driving her stilettoed heel into his foot.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I have never liked Brand, and am not entirely surprised at the allegations, but this should not be a trial by media, and it is hard to justify a special despatches.

    "Show biz star is a sexual predator" is hardly a shock after all.
    Unpleasant attitude that seems awfully close to that anaesthetists letter a few days ago.

    Whether something's a shock or not, sexual assault is still wrong.

    And the only way we're going to have women be treated with respect is if these concerns get aired, even when they're not shocking. Until they are.
    I have no problem with such a portfolio of evidence being handed over to appropriate police forces and courts, but a trial by media risks prejudicing a fair trial.
    That's upto the alleged victims, which do they prefer?

    Too often victims are "encouraged" to keep the abuse quiet or dismissed or not taken seriously, and the same perpetrator abuses many people none of whom make the connection as they're all staying quiet.

    The Me Too movement did a good job by letting people know they're not alone. That's a good thing, not something to be frowned upon.

    When the allegations about Weinstein, or Harris, or other predators made it to light it encouraged other victims to step forward. That is a good thing.

    Sunlight is one of the best disinfectants.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,935
    glw said:

    viewcode said:

    If your only fanbase is online, you're not A-list. Tom Cruise does not have a podcast

    That's really not true. Some of the biggest stars for kids today are people who are almost entirely online. Nobody over 30 will have heard of them but they can still be hugely popular and make a lot of money across social media and streaming platforms.
    Oh, I acknowledge the money, it's the influence over voting behavior I question.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,517
    DavidL said:

    Chris said:

    Labour now betting favourite in Mid Beds after Survation poll has them ahead with the LDs in third

    It's a two-horse race?
    The Liberal Democrats can't win here?
    And they will fade pretty quickly if that perception takes hold. After all, other than embarrassing the government by losing a safe seat in a by election what is the point of the Lib Dems?
    Personally I think they should come out for Rejoin. There's a solid block of people who would vote for that, almost regardless of other considerations. Not a majority, but lots more than their current polling.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,503

    As of 2017, the US "foreign born" population was estimated at more than 44 million. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Foreign-born_population

    So, currently, it is probably around 50 million. No doubt there are more precise estimates, but given the number of illegals in the US, I think it unwise to put much faith in any of them.

    This part surprised me, recently: "Roughly 4.6 million, or one-in-ten, Black people in the U.S. were born in a different country as of 2019, up from 3% in 1980. By 2060, the U.S. Census Bureau projects that this number will increase to 9.5 million, or more than double the current level (the Census Bureau only offers projections for single race groups)."
    source: https://www.pewresearch.org/race-ethnicity/2022/01/20/one-in-ten-black-people-living-in-the-u-s-are-immigrants/

    Yep. Not only that but Nigerians are the most likely immigrant group to have a degree. Despite being only 1% of Black Americans they are 25% of the Black students at Harvard Business School.

    https://medium.com/@joecarleton/why-nigerian-immigrants-are-the-most-successful-ethnic-group-in-the-u-s-23a7ea5a0832

  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,878
    Keep an eye on this map. Current and Forecast change in soil moisture. It will tell us when the fighting season in Ukraine is likely to end and the counteroffensive stop for a few months.

    http://wxmaps.org/pix/soil4

    Currently very dry soils over that region and little rainfall forecast (plus hot weather) so the mud isn’t coming anytime soon.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979
    Speaking of things that used to be a bigger deal than they are now, look who gets listed at the bottom of the wiki page for the 2019 GE results (albeit clearly there are apparenly many 'parties' doing even worse)

  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,905
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I have never liked Brand, and am not entirely surprised at the allegations, but this should not be a trial by media, and it is hard to justify a special despatches.

    "Show biz star is a sexual predator" is hardly a shock after all.
    Er, he's famous and its about sexual allegations, of course it's big news in the media landscape, even if he is c-list at best.

    Really cannot grasp your surprise at the way its been investigated and now reported.
    He’s really not C list. He has 6m followers. Online he’s A list for sure
    If your only fanbase is online, you're not A-list. Tom Cruise does not have a podcast
    A fundamental misreading of modern culture. He’s a massive online influencer: that’s his shtick and he’s BIG within that

    He’s not trying to be a Tom Cruise type celeb. He’s a new type

    Many people will listen to what he says about Political issue X or Y, and reflect on it, and maybe act on it; Tom Cruise can’t do that
    Social Media "Influencers" really aren't A-Listers.

    Its pathetic like saying that a video has a million views. It really doesn't mean much.

    Besides on YouTube channels get into the hundreds of millions, and most of those with tens of millions I really wouldn't consider A Listers either. 6 million sounds pathetic for "A List" claims.
    I can understand taking issue with me calling Brand C list. He's reasonably well known, and for whatever reason has some notable presence in online circles. But A list, whilst not a scientifically defined term by any means, surely means people of truly significant profile and influence, not people who get some good views on podcasts sometimes. Are the Triggernometry guys A-list?

    If it is elevated by one's online profile, then as you note there are far better candidates than Brand. If he's A list who are the B list?!
    The accusations against Brand are fairly old-hat yet they are nonetheless the lead story on the guardian and the times and subject to a channel 4 special tonight, and this after “years of investigation by a team of journalists”. This alone says he is A list, despite not gracing MSM for many years

    Fame has changed
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,246
    DavidL said:

    @ydoethur must be getting extremely twitchy as this goes to the final over with 8 required.

    Nah, I said Leics would finish last in every competition so it was inevitable they would be champions of at least one.
  • Foxy said:

    As of 2017, the US "foreign born" population was estimated at more than 44 million. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Foreign-born_population

    So, currently, it is probably around 50 million. No doubt there are more precise estimates, but given the number of illegals in the US, I think it unwise to put much faith in any of them.

    This part surprised me, recently: "Roughly 4.6 million, or one-in-ten, Black people in the U.S. were born in a different country as of 2019, up from 3% in 1980. By 2060, the U.S. Census Bureau projects that this number will increase to 9.5 million, or more than double the current level (the Census Bureau only offers projections for single race groups)."
    source: https://www.pewresearch.org/race-ethnicity/2022/01/20/one-in-ten-black-people-living-in-the-u-s-are-immigrants/

    Yep. Not only that but Nigerians are the most likely immigrant group to have a degree. Despite being only 1% of Black Americans they are 25% of the Black students at Harvard Business School.

    https://medium.com/@joecarleton/why-nigerian-immigrants-are-the-most-successful-ethnic-group-in-the-u-s-23a7ea5a0832

    Given how much money it takes to get into an American college, it helps that they're all princes with millions to give away to anybody who'd answer their emails.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979
    Farooq said:

    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    Chris said:

    DavidL said:

    Chris said:

    Labour now betting favourite in Mid Beds after Survation poll has them ahead with the LDs in third

    It's a two-horse race?
    The Liberal Democrats can't win here?
    And they will fade pretty quickly if that perception takes hold. After all, other than embarrassing the government by losing a safe seat in a by election what is the point of the Lib Dems?
    The last really distinctive thing the Lib Dems stood for was in 2010 - putting the Tories into government in return for a referendum on an electoral reform they thought would benefit them, which they lost anyway.
    You may have missed 2019 when they put "STOP BREXIT" literally on the front cover of their manifesto. How much clearer do you need?
    You made it as far as the cover? More than most, well done.

    The Green Party got plaudits from me because their manifesto had working internal hyperlinks, which most do not bother with.

    Their cover is a question, and which is pretty funny in its boldness and unrealistic expectations


    The answer is never.
    Well, yes, whether anyone is reading the manifesto is quite another question.
    I read 'em all. Within reason, I'm not hunting down the Gwlad Party manifesto.

    (It's my donation to PB services, so you all don't have to)
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,346
    Leon said:

    Ratters said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Leon said:

    The Russell brand story is in the Times. Tallies with what I’ve heard in one instance but is way more detailed over many more years

    Doesn’t look good for him

    However he is no longer reliant on big publishers or broadcasters. He just needs an online presence. TwitterX can give him that if YouTube pulls the plug

    Then it comes down to whether there will be court proceedings. An interesting test of modern media power (leaving aside the morality)

    I find this troubling. The allegations - if true - are horrible and any man committing them should face the legal consequences. But if not true a man's character has been trashed.

    A failing criminal justice system and trial by media are not a happy combination.
    I'm not sure I agree.

    The bar to a successful criminal conviction for sexual assault and rape are, rightly, very high as they result in loss of liberty. In many cases the evidence is his word against hers, as the defence is about whether or not consent was given rather than whether the act occured (much easier to prove).

    I don't think victims of sexual assault should be prevented from making accusations publicly, just because they have not achieved a criminal conviction.

    People can choose who they wish to believe. And Brand can choose whether or not to sue for libel.
    What if you can’t afford to sue for libel? Admittedly, Brand easily can

    Hmm. Mixed feelings about this

    Far better for it to be done in court than on TV: what they are for
    The other point about this is that if you are making an allegation, and you get sued, you've got to fund your own defence, and also it can bankrupt you and destroy your reputation if on the balance of probabilities you are found to be lying, which could be the outcome if you aren't well represented and up against a well resourced opponent. Most people aren't going to do it.

    In some ways, the widespread dissatisfaction with how the legal system operates explains how a shadow justice system has emerged, where people get removed from public life by 'allegations of inappropriate behaviour', without any due process involved at all.

    The whole situation is a mess. I have no idea what the answer is.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,739
    Tres said:

    kle4 said:

    I do actually forget what Brand originally did. Was he a comedian, a singer, an actor?

    He was a stand-up who got gigs presenting shows on MTV/radio, then moved into acting.
    Wasn't he an astrologer originally?
This discussion has been closed.