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Why I’m reluctant to bet on a LAB majority – pt1 – politicalbetting.com
Why I’m reluctant to bet on a LAB majority – pt1 – politicalbetting.com
One of the biggest challenges about forecasting the next election is the very high proportion of 2019 Conservative voters who are now saying don’t know.
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I do not buy into Heatheners "It's 97 on Steroids" view but I think a small majority is in the offing. The Polls are not shifting back to the Tories and the news is continually not good for them,
The alternative strategy would be to rely on depressed Tory turnout and enthusiasm from the Labour core. But we've seen that fail in the recent past, and it isn't terribly credible coming from a base as bad as Corbyn left him in 2019.
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4h
84% of Britons - and 78% of Tory voters - say the government seems tired
All Britons
Tired: 84% (inc. 49% "very tired")
Energetic: 8%
Con voters
Tired: 78%
Energetic: 13%
https://twitter.com/bphillipsonMP/status/1699013115965305292?s=20
Just a small one though.
Blair did get switchers, clearly, but persuading people not to bother actively vote against him was also quite a big part of his success.
Birmingham City Council has issued a s.114 Notice as part of the plans to meet the Council’s financial liabilities relating to Equal Pay claims and an in-year financial gap within its budget which currently stands in the region of £87m.
In June the Council announced that it had a potential liability relating to Equal Pay claims in the region of £650m to £760m, with an ongoing liability accruing at a rate of £5m to £14m per month.
The Council is still in a position where it must fund the equal pay liability that has accrued to date (in the region of £650m to £760m), but it does not have the resources to do so."
https://www.birmingham.gov.uk/news/article/1381/statement_regarding_section_114_notice
‘A collective burying heads in the sand’
The council has admitted that its last three years of accounts are no longer admissible and were incorrectly closed and signed off, and, according to reports in Birmingham Live, external auditors confirm they have concerns about them all.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/09/05/birmingham-city-council-declares-effective-bankruptcy/
Probably share too many of these Downing Street Flickr posts but look at Rishi in these. Surprised they OK'd them given how miserable he seems.
https://twitter.com/_adamcherry_/status/1699029382277251459?s=20
The Blair comparisons are pretty meaningless. Different time, different people. It won't be a repeat of 19xx or 20xx, it'll be 2024.
I predict that GE 2024 will have a similar sentiment.
But I wouldn't bet on the wooden cadet getting a majority
He's impossibly boring to listen to. I try to hear what he says, but it so quickly turns into an annoying nasal noise that I can't follow it
But he's lucky: he's up against a rather rubbish government. He ought to get a majority, yet he's so very dull that I think Edweird Miliband would be more likely to get one
And yet. Most people pay little attention to politics.
Most people pay little attention to politics.
Most people pay little attention to politics.
Most people pay little attention to politics.
Most people pay little attention to politics.
Most people pay little attention to politics.
Most people pay little attention to politics.
Most people pay little attention to politics. etc
My personal belief is that swingback is about non politically engaged people actually starting to pay attention, They won't do that yet.
There is a similar issue with the tedious "stay out' vs 'rejoin' Brexit polling. Without an actual vote in prospect and without the terms (it won't be the same as before) the numbers are just reporting on general unhappiness, not an actual voting intention.
But I still think it will be at least a 50 seat plus labour majority
A Scottish Police force effectively decriminalises various crimes by stating they won;t be investigating them.
There was much enthusiasm for ending Tory rule in 97 and so there is today. I think what's happening is people are looking back at 97 and ascribing it as positive sentiment for Blair, whereas today they've decided it's all of the negative variety on the Tories.
My view (becoming quite longstanding now) is big Labour majority and let me add a rider - it'll be greeted enthusiastically.
However since that's improbable, then Labour majority should be odds-on IMHO.
But The Crown should own it, rather than the government - “Royal” shouldn’t just be a deceptive trademark
It should be an NPO near monopoly; it could price itself cheap enough to take out all of the competition
I already deliver loads of Amazon parcels because we’re cheaper than getting their own drivers to do it
We’re obliged to deliver to every house on our routes every day; why have five more vans visiting your street every day delivering parcels?
Every other delivery van I’ve seen on my post routes has always left the engine running while they deliver their parcel. Why do they do this? Starting an engine takes one second
https://t.co/h7Z1kHIqTL
Those who wanted change are going to get change. It isn’t the change they wanted
Be careful what you wish for. Oftentimes, what you wish for gets… *you*
I am a naturally right of centre voter. But I find it very, very hard to escape the feeling that the country is broken. And it was the Tories who broke it.
Across vast swathes of public policy, the rot feels inescapable.
Living costs are rapidly increasing.
The rail network is unreliable and crippled by strikes.
The immigration system can’t cope. The boats are still arriving.
The NHS is teetering on the brink and can no longer provide a fully functioning GP service in many places.
Schools are falling down.
We have hit a period of deep malaise. It feels inconceivable that the governing party will get away with it in an election which is due in the next 12-14 months.
I also thought that by now the government may be starting to get a grip on the bad economic news and they would be starting to get themselves on an even keel. There appears to be little prospect of that right now. It’s entirely plausible that they will be in this stage of perma-crisis all the way up to the election.
My view for a long time has been lack of enthusiasm for Labour and the uphill struggle they have in seat numbers will mean a HP with Lab as largest party or a small Lab majority. I am now starting to think that majority will be larger. The only thing that gives me pause at the moment is that Labour are coming across as very ‘continuity Tories’ rather than embracing the change mantle - and they need to be better as setting out some key principles to make the country better rather than suggesting they’ll preside over the decline in a slightly more competent way.
It has the conservatives on 28%. This is towards the top for current polling.
Labour are on 42%; this is at the lower end of current polling.
Keeping other parties the same for Labour to not get an overall majority would need conservatives to gain at least 4% to 32% and Labour to lose 4% to 38%.
Conservatives were last at or above 32% in September last year before the fiscal statement with Opinium. Similarly with Labour on 38%.
It's been almost a year since then.
What reasons would anyone vote conservative at the next election who is not planning to now? Is that sufficient for a 4% increase in the conservative vote?
Perhaps a pragmatic government should just accept some things like water are monopolies.
Remember that the 2019 Con voters included a lot of first-time Con voters, motivated by Brexit and Corbyn. One of those is 'done', and while done quickly it was not done well, and the other is history. On top of which, the Tories have been an absolute shambles in office, Ukraine and - to a degree - Covid apart. It is entirely reasonable to think that many of the DKs will just sit it out.
The comparison with 1997 is instructive. The Labour vote only increased by around 2m but the Tory one dropped by some 5m. I think it's entirely plausible that something similar will happen next year (though of course Labour is starting this next election way further back than it did under Blair).
Rule 123
The driver and the environment. You MUST NOT leave a parked vehicle unattended with the engine running or leave a vehicle engine running unnecessarily while that vehicle is stationary on a public road. Generally, if the vehicle is stationary and is likely to remain so for more than a couple of minutes, you should apply the parking brake and switch off the engine to reduce emissions and noise pollution. However it is permissible to leave the engine running if the vehicle is stationary in traffic or for diagnosing faults.
The question is what is "unnecessarily". Eg in midwinter I will start my engine a couple of minutes before leaving the house, to warm it up and defrost everything, that is I would say "necessary".
Similarly if you're stepping out of the car for 30 seconds to drop a parcel then getting back is it unnecessary to leave it running? At first glance would have thought so, but on second thought given the damage stop/start can cause and the further reference to "... more than a couple of minutes ..." in the rule, then arguably a delivery person doing their job falls under necessary.
Common sense should apply here I think.
(Said my parents in 1997, but substituting the early ‘70s).
Apparently they have over 5,000 of them.
https://fleetworld.co.uk/royal-mail-deploys-5000th-electric-van-on-delivery-and-collection-fleet/
I've also seen an electric Amazon delivery e-bike in Huntingdon. I think these organisations *are* aware; just give them a few years to replace the majority of their fleets.
The service is underfunded, and investment in particular, because the Treasury doesn't like stumping up cash and investment is the easiest thing to cut because there's no immediate impact on the front line. Plus, pressure is always to lower bills, so the in-house accounting will tend not to add up putting more pressure on spending / the Treasury-begging-bowl. Plus unions know that there's more chance of getting a better settlement for their workers by striking if the govt is directly in charge so they do it more often where the public feel the impact straight away.
Private monopolies can get around some of those problems, and tend to mitigate others. However, unless there's a powerful, independent and effective watchdog / regulator overseeing them, you end up instead with the traditional problems of private monopolies instead.
This is nicely solved by electric delivery vehicles which don’t mind such usages patterns.
The quality of our rivers etc was far, far worse pre-privatisation.
Primary difference between public and private ownership is that post-privatisation fines for discharges etc became a cost of doing business, and a rational business seeks to minimise cost, so water companies cleaned up their act in order to minimise fines and thus maximise profits.
Under public ownership, if sewage is discharged then nobody is held to account for that. Fining a public body for discharges is meaningless, since its all Treasury money anyway and nobody cares.
You need sensible regulations though. You need Ofwat to be doing their job, setting standards, and holding firms to account, not just leave it to the private market and wish everything will be OK.
The same with electric busses as well - I bet the new ones that run from the Park and Rides in Cambridge don't get a massive daily mileage. As a total guess, say eight miles per return journey; one journey per hour over ten hours.
For some things, electric is already the best.
I never go over 25mph. Going at 15mph would take me about five minutes longer each day
I remember making the point about the inefficiency of multiple parcels vans right here a number of years ago, only to be castigated by the capitalist herd, telling me that I didn't understand the efficiencies of the free market.
But not every person doing a delivery is doing so with vehicles bought for that purpose, or owned by the firm.
A lot of deliveries are done via self-employed people who are paid to do a block of deliveries in their own vehicles. For many people this can be a second income rather than their full time job, and they do it with whatever vehicle they happen to already own and drive.
Realistically speaking this is a temporary issue anyway. As old vehicles wear out they'll be replaced with newer vehicles, with newer technologies. Sometimes we can put too much effort into resolving already resolved problems - rather than waiting for the resolution to work its way through the system.
If the alternative is instead of having a private parcel van that's doing 30-40 deliveries all in the same postcode area is each of those people makes a trip to the shops, then that's less efficient.
I have fond memories of milk floats, was a part-time job of mine as a student to help out the local milkie. They had a couple of tonnes of lead-acid batteries, and would get stranded every so often!
Of course, one need only look to other countries that somehow manage to invest properly in public services – although that is clear Furrin Magick, or summat.
And compared with here and now, the last days of Major were a model of competent and humane government.
(The question is whether the party will fall apart over everything in the way that Team 97 did over Europe. Conservatives don't do imminent defeat well, in general.)
Amazon are moving to an all electric fleet for their delivery vans, IIRC. The various parcel delivery systems and their combinations are actually heavily optimised - the amount Amazon spends on RM delivery vs their own vans varies according to closely monitored numbers, for example.
It’s the letters part of the system where there are problems.
It has a habit of turning the engine off when coasting to a junction - particularly roundabouts. I lose power steering and cannot pull out swiftly if required. It is thus quite dangerous.
Also, after having had an unexpected starter motor failure in the middle lane of the M62, I don't even like turning the engine off when stuck in a queue on a main road unless it is a 'people wandering about the central reservation' type stoppage.
The 2019 first time Tories will go back to being non-voters, with a tranche of One Nation types also staying at home, while the 2019 abstainers will be back to vote Labour.
Well that's what I reckon, anyway.
Lots of days since CON led an opinion poll!
There are a few options that could get right wing UKIP voters out to vote Tory but I don't think that would help them in winnable seats..
This is why the conservative % is at the higher range of polls and the Labour % at the lower.
My point still stands though; if you take another polling house you might need a 6% increase in Conservative vote and a 6% decrease in Labour vote to get to 32|38.
What would cause such a significant shift in votes?
In most general elections there tends to be a swing back to the rulling party but that is because they can control the agenda better than the opposition.
Are the Conservatives in that position?
*replace with most hated courier as appropriate, if anyone hates one more than Evri
If the five vans are eg coming from five different depots, then how is it more efficient to unnecessarily move the goods to the one central depot, resort the goods yet again, then send out five vans still as a secondary step, now from another hub? How does that actually improve matters?
Sometimes what may seem inefficient above the surface can actually be supremely efficient below the surface, or vice-versa.
Sometimes a well run, well regulated monopoly is best. Avoiding unnecessary duplication is a good thing.
If a driver gets out, picks up their parcel they're dropping off, puts it in front of the door, rings the bell, takes a photo to show they've dropped it off and then is back in their car all within a minute and without ever leaving sight of their vehicle, then have they actually left it unattended?
I don't know incidentally, genuinely asking a question. I always switch my vehicle off if I'm leaving it, but then I'm not doing deliveries.
Of course, your answer will be "mOre RoAdS".
The iceberg effect is worth remembering for almost any business or industry. The visible bit you are seeing is only a tiny fraction of what is happening and what happens below the surface matters.
No, each van doesn't travel five times the distance. If the bulk of the distance is primarily between the depot and the relevant postcode area, then going to five neighbouring estates within the same postcode area is miniscule 'extra' mileage. Being efficient getting from A to B is the bulk of the relevant efficiency, not from B1 to B4.
I can get 4 different deliveries to my house in the same day. But if those 4 deliveries are coming from 4 different places - and if those vans are all filled with drop offs near to me - then each of those vans is operating efficiently.
He now warns us when he's going on holiday and Mrs. P. takes a 'holiday' from eBay.
Each of those delivery vans is typically operating efficiently, businesses spend a fortune to ensure its efficient. Its the consumers who have decided that instead of going to the shops and buying everything once a week in one shopping trip, that buying an individual item when they want/need it is what they'll do instead.
Unless you want to lower customer service back to 20th century and mean that people have to travel to the shops, then we need the roads to work for people and what they're buying.
Of the 29% of 2019 Con voters who are now "Wont Vote/DKs", only 3% answered "Won't vote". It would be ludicrously low to think that anything like as little as only 3% of 2019 Conservatives won't vote given all the antics that their once favoured party has been through since. As all of those former voters are clearly disillusioned with the Conservative Party they backed in 2019, surely a lot more will end up not voting at all.
Delving into the Opinium tables, there's some evidence that the eventual outcome will be non-voting. Of the 2019 Con voters, apart from the 3% down as "don't vote", there's another 15% who put their chances of voting at 50/50 or less. There won't be a perfect overlap with the "don't knows", but given that disillusionment often fosters apathy it's surely going to be quite strong. And on the other hand if there are at present any significant numbers of disillusioned 2019 Conservative voters who doesn't yet know their voting intention despite being highly motivated to vote, I'd guess that a fair few of them will be highly motivated to vote the Conservatives out but have yet to decide which other party to support in order to do that.