Hilariously, this GDP revision probably makes the UK the best performing European economy in the G7. Certainly better than Italy, Germany - maybe just ahead of France
Agree; same with kicking out 'marginal' MP's. The idea of a party with dutiful, obedient MP's doesn't appeal to me.
That argument is less compelling when you look at what tolerating the eccentricities of Corbyn led to.
While I'm opposed to anti-semitism, and any other racial discrimination, I do suspect the treatment of Corbyn since he resigned as Leader has been rather OTT.
Remember OKC how Corbyn behaved with Luciana Berger, Chuka Umunna, Chris Leslie, Angela Smith, Mike Gapes, Gavin Shuker and Ann Coffey. He was particularly ruthless when it came to Luciana, and why? Because he conflated her with Netanyahu's regime in Israel.
Luciana Berger was a pretty MOR politician but the vitriol (antisemitic but also misogynist) she was subjected to and her treatment by the Labour party of the time - Parliamentary and broader - was disgraceful.
Happily, she now now a member of the Labour Party, and Jeremy Corbyn is not.
Agree; same with kicking out 'marginal' MP's. The idea of a party with dutiful, obedient MP's doesn't appeal to me.
There’s a measure of difference between dutiful robots and intelligent, questioning MPs who nevertheless support their party’s manifestos and goals however. The latter can help produce good law and bring different perspectives to the table. The former don’t have anything to bring, they’re just an extra vote for the government in the lobbies.
The other class of MPs are the rabble rousers and serial rebels who I actually think we’ve seen a bit too much of in recent years (also on the Tory benches). A few are good to have to keep front benches aware of different perspectives. Too many and it starts to get messy and helps produce bad government/opposition .
Agree; same with kicking out 'marginal' MP's. The idea of a party with dutiful, obedient MP's doesn't appeal to me.
That argument is less compelling when you look at what tolerating the eccentricities of Corbyn led to.
While I'm opposed to anti-semitism, and any other racial discrimination, I do suspect the treatment of Corbyn since he resigned as Leader has been rather OTT.
Remember OKC how Corbyn behaved with Luciana Berger, Chuka Umunna, Chris Leslie, Angela Smith, Mike Gapes, Gavin Shuker and Ann Coffey. He was particularly ruthless when it came to Luciana, and why? Because he conflated her with Netanyahu's regime in Israel.
Dealing with Israel is fraught with difficulty. I find Netanyahu particularly nasty; there's no reason why being a Jew excuses fascism. Or similar.
UK GDP is now, in fact, comfortably over its pre pandemic level and in line with peer nations and better than some. Not quite the Brexit basket-case that has been portrayed
Agree; same with kicking out 'marginal' MP's. The idea of a party with dutiful, obedient MP's doesn't appeal to me.
That argument is less compelling when you look at what tolerating the eccentricities of Corbyn led to.
While I'm opposed to anti-semitism, and any other racial discrimination, I do suspect the treatment of Corbyn since he resigned as Leader has been rather OTT.
Remember OKC how Corbyn behaved with Luciana Berger, Chuka Umunna, Chris Leslie, Angela Smith, Mike Gapes, Gavin Shuker and Ann Coffey. He was particularly ruthless when it came to Luciana, and why? Because he conflated her with Netanyahu's regime in Israel.
Dealing with Israel is fraught with difficulty. I find Netanyahu particularly nasty; there's no reason why being a Jew excuses fascism. Or similar.
Corbyn was quite welcome to rail against anti- Palestine extremism from Israeli Governments. But he chose to express some of his angst against Jewish Labour MPS. That is unforgivable.
On topic. Surely the imminent constituency polls of mid Bedfordshire will end the LibDem Labour standoff, hurtle one of them into light campaigning mode, inform the voters what the clear tactical vote is, thus placing the Tory’s in greater peril, and change the betting completely?
Yes, perhaps - do we know such polls are coming? In fact I've been wondering if any of the parties have been doing polls but not publishing them because they don't like the results.
The cost of such a poll would exceed the limits on by election expenses.
Hilariously, this GDP revision probably makes the UK the best performing European economy in the G7. Certainly better than Italy, Germany - maybe just ahead of France
Quite the narrative change
The narrative won't change.
The narrative will still be that Brexit Britain sucks and we need to rejoin the Single Market.
The narrative and reality have a minimal relationship to each other.
Agree; same with kicking out 'marginal' MP's. The idea of a party with dutiful, obedient MP's doesn't appeal to me.
That argument is less compelling when you look at what tolerating the eccentricities of Corbyn led to.
While I'm opposed to anti-semitism, and any other racial discrimination, I do suspect the treatment of Corbyn since he resigned as Leader has been rather OTT.
Remember OKC how Corbyn behaved with Luciana Berger, Chuka Umunna, Chris Leslie, Angela Smith, Mike Gapes, Gavin Shuker and Ann Coffey. He was particularly ruthless when it came to Luciana, and why? Because he conflated her with Netanyahu's regime in Israel.
Are you sure about any of this? Corbyn did nothing against Luciana or any of the others. The complaint was he should have protected her against Liverpool trots.
Agree; same with kicking out 'marginal' MP's. The idea of a party with dutiful, obedient MP's doesn't appeal to me.
That argument is less compelling when you look at what tolerating the eccentricities of Corbyn led to.
While I'm opposed to anti-semitism, and any other racial discrimination, I do suspect the treatment of Corbyn since he resigned as Leader has been rather OTT.
Remember OKC how Corbyn behaved with Luciana Berger, Chuka Umunna, Chris Leslie, Angela Smith, Mike Gapes, Gavin Shuker and Ann Coffey. He was particularly ruthless when it came to Luciana, and why? Because he conflated her with Netanyahu's regime in Israel.
Are you sure about any of this? Corbyn did nothing against Luciana or any of the others. The complaint was he should have protected her against Liverpool trots.
Allowing systematic racism and bullying is doing something against the victim.
Inaction against abuse and tolerance of it is a form of action.
Agree; same with kicking out 'marginal' MP's. The idea of a party with dutiful, obedient MP's doesn't appeal to me.
That argument is less compelling when you look at what tolerating the eccentricities of Corbyn led to.
While I'm opposed to anti-semitism, and any other racial discrimination, I do suspect the treatment of Corbyn since he resigned as Leader has been rather OTT.
Remember OKC how Corbyn behaved with Luciana Berger, Chuka Umunna, Chris Leslie, Angela Smith, Mike Gapes, Gavin Shuker and Ann Coffey. He was particularly ruthless when it came to Luciana, and why? Because he conflated her with Netanyahu's regime in Israel.
Are you sure about any of this? Corbyn did nothing against Luciana or any of the others. The complaint was he should have protected her against Liverpool trots.
Well that's the point. He was quite comfortable seeing Jewish Labour MPs being abused by fascists claiming to be democrats.
Agree; same with kicking out 'marginal' MP's. The idea of a party with dutiful, obedient MP's doesn't appeal to me.
That argument is less compelling when you look at what tolerating the eccentricities of Corbyn led to.
While I'm opposed to anti-semitism, and any other racial discrimination, I do suspect the treatment of Corbyn since he resigned as Leader has been rather OTT.
Remember OKC how Corbyn behaved with Luciana Berger, Chuka Umunna, Chris Leslie, Angela Smith, Mike Gapes, Gavin Shuker and Ann Coffey. He was particularly ruthless when it came to Luciana, and why? Because he conflated her with Netanyahu's regime in Israel.
Are you sure about any of this? Corbyn did nothing against Luciana or any of the others. The complaint was he should have protected her against Liverpool trots.
Yes - Corbyn was notable in not attempting to replace dissident MPs (perhaps because of his own history, perhaps because he's very allergic to personality politics) - Momentum had gung-ho types who were very up for deselection efforts, but they were given no encouragement from the leadership.
I’m just waiting for Kir Royale Starmer to make an angry statement on TV.
“Does the prime minister not realise Britain is the third best performing nation in the G7, comfortably ahead of countries like Germany? What exactly does he propose to do about this reasonably-encouraging outcome??”
Have we done the further erosion of Labour’s polling position? They have dropped in the latest Techne Poll. Only 45% with Techne now. 😈
They've been bumping around 45/46 with one 47 with Techne all summer. Have the Tories gone up from their circa 26/27?
Rishi's party looking good for the win for the Rabbit?
I’m total mischief today. ☺️
The poll with the latest field work is another one of those 20+ leads and another 24 for the Tories, now two in a week.
To be serious, I’m one of those that says ignore silly season polls, give it to end of Party Conference plus one month to look at the polls again.
However, when it comes to your Conference week, your week in the spotlight, polls are used by media to put the pressure on. Last year Labour were under pressure eve of their conference, Opinium only putting Labour 4 ahead of Tories and Truss ahead of Starmer.
We could be two Conservative conferences away from a General Election, polling could cast a defeatist gloom over those conferences. Polling in conjunction with conference spotlight, can help voters make their minds up. Those sort of voters (and newspaper owners) who always vote for the winners.
Agree; same with kicking out 'marginal' MP's. The idea of a party with dutiful, obedient MP's doesn't appeal to me.
That argument is less compelling when you look at what tolerating the eccentricities of Corbyn led to.
While I'm opposed to anti-semitism, and any other racial discrimination, I do suspect the treatment of Corbyn since he resigned as Leader has been rather OTT.
Remember OKC how Corbyn behaved with Luciana Berger, Chuka Umunna, Chris Leslie, Angela Smith, Mike Gapes, Gavin Shuker and Ann Coffey. He was particularly ruthless when it came to Luciana, and why? Because he conflated her with Netanyahu's regime in Israel.
Are you sure about any of this? Corbyn did nothing against Luciana or any of the others. The complaint was he should have protected her against Liverpool trots.
Yes - Corbyn was notable in not attempting to replace dissident MPs (perhaps because of his own history, perhaps because he's very allergic to personality politics) - Momentum had gung-ho types who were very up for deselection efforts, but they were given no encouragement from the leadership.
But neither were they sanctioned on Corbyn's watch.
We are now likely the best performing large European economy. Or so some are saying
Like, WTF??
Unlikely as these revisions don't affect 2022 and 2023. With the revised data we probably have the second lowest cumulative growth since Q4 19 among G7 economies with Germany below us, France slightly ahead, Italy a bit further ahead and Japan, Canada and the US doing better than Europe. Although as those countries mostly haven't yet made the same thorough revisions the ONS is undertaking the picture will likely change again.
We are now likely the best performing large European economy. Or so some are saying
Like, WTF??
Unlikely as these revisions don't affect 2022 and 2023. With the revised data we probably have the second lowest cumulative growth since Q4 19 among G7 economies with Germany below us, France slightly ahead, Italy a bit further ahead and Japan, Canada and the US doing better than Europe. Although as those countries mostly haven't yet made the same thorough revisions the ONS is undertaking the picture will likely change again.
This guy thinks we are now ahead of France AND Germany, and same as Japan (albeit behind Italy). Others have slightly different takes
And there is a theory this is UK-specific. I’m sorry to rain on your Britain-hating parade
Agree; same with kicking out 'marginal' MP's. The idea of a party with dutiful, obedient MP's doesn't appeal to me.
That argument is less compelling when you look at what tolerating the eccentricities of Corbyn led to.
While I'm opposed to anti-semitism, and any other racial discrimination, I do suspect the treatment of Corbyn since he resigned as Leader has been rather OTT.
Remember OKC how Corbyn behaved with Luciana Berger, Chuka Umunna, Chris Leslie, Angela Smith, Mike Gapes, Gavin Shuker and Ann Coffey. He was particularly ruthless when it came to Luciana, and why? Because he conflated her with Netanyahu's regime in Israel.
Are you sure about any of this? Corbyn did nothing against Luciana or any of the others. The complaint was he should have protected her against Liverpool trots.
Yes - Corbyn was notable in not attempting to replace dissident MPs (perhaps because of his own history, perhaps because he's very allergic to personality politics) - Momentum had gung-ho types who were very up for deselection efforts, but they were given no encouragement from the leadership.
But neither were they sanctioned on Corbyn's watch.
All this does not mean Britain is some booming super-hero economy, taking on the world
It does mean all that “slowest to recover from the pandemic”, “weakest in the G7” stuff was, in fact, nonsense. Which is a fair chunk of Labour’s narrative
We are now likely the best performing large European economy. Or so some are saying
Like, WTF??
Unlikely as these revisions don't affect 2022 and 2023. With the revised data we probably have the second lowest cumulative growth since Q4 19 among G7 economies with Germany below us, France slightly ahead, Italy a bit further ahead and Japan, Canada and the US doing better than Europe. Although as those countries mostly haven't yet made the same thorough revisions the ONS is undertaking the picture will likely change again.
This guy thinks we are now ahead of France AND Germany, and same as Japan (albeit behind Italy). Others have slightly different takes
And there is a theory this is UK-specific. I’m sorry to rain on your Britain-hating parade
He's looking at data to Q1 2023, I am looking at data to Q2 2023, because Q2 numbers are available for every G7 country except Canada. Leon, this is my day job, I won't lecture you on rooftop cocktail bars, don't try to explain economics to me. And leave off the tiresome 'Britain-hating' BS. If I hated Britain I'd be fucking delighted with Brexit, believe me.
I thought under Labour's PFI schemes, loads of money was spent doing up schools, rebuilding infrastructure etc.,. So how come schools are now at risk of falling down because of dodgy and/or inadequate concrete?
I don't know much about this but AFAIK RAAC was last used in the early 90s, so presumably Major's government blocked it being used anymore in around that time period before Labour's PFI kicked in.
These schools affected now were probably relatively "new" when Labour took over so weren't the ones PFI affected.
Thanks.
I thought PFI had been used to refurbish existing schools not just build new ones.
Is that not the case?
Yes, but very often 'refurbish' didn't include removing the old structure, just plastering over the rubbish.
Bloody typical isn't it. Hardly any of the rubbish schools (structurally) from the 60s get knocked down and rebuilt and one of the few that does is my old Comp. I was really sad the day they tore it down. Lots of good memories. The new one is a big box that holds no sentimental value for me at all. Of course it wa snecessary but it still hurts.
Definitely a sense of hiraeth (a wonderful Welsh word I am sure you appreciate) every time I drive by.
All of the schools I attended have since been demolished. A new primary school was built on the same site as my primary, but the two secondary schools were permanent closures. The site of the first was used for housing, while the site of the second stood empty for many years, but a new primary school now occupies the site.
Agree; same with kicking out 'marginal' MP's. The idea of a party with dutiful, obedient MP's doesn't appeal to me.
That argument is less compelling when you look at what tolerating the eccentricities of Corbyn led to.
While I'm opposed to anti-semitism, and any other racial discrimination, I do suspect the treatment of Corbyn since he resigned as Leader has been rather OTT.
Remember OKC how Corbyn behaved with Luciana Berger, Chuka Umunna, Chris Leslie, Angela Smith, Mike Gapes, Gavin Shuker and Ann Coffey. He was particularly ruthless when it came to Luciana, and why? Because he conflated her with Netanyahu's regime in Israel.
Are you sure about any of this? Corbyn did nothing against Luciana or any of the others. The complaint was he should have protected her against Liverpool trots.
Yes - Corbyn was notable in not attempting to replace dissident MPs (perhaps because of his own history, perhaps because he's very allergic to personality politics) - Momentum had gung-ho types who were very up for deselection efforts, but they were given no encouragement from the leadership.
Bollocks.
He presided over a party wherein anti semitism was tolerated and, if you squinted, encouraged. He happily conflated anti-Israelism with anti(-British Labour Party MP)-Jewism.
And he did that, Nick, because the Jews have moved very far from their downtrodden origins whereby it was proper socialism to go and work on a kibutz and champion them, and now it turns out that they (often bankers, witness "the mural") now run the world.
We are now likely the best performing large European economy. Or so some are saying
Like, WTF??
Unlikely as these revisions don't affect 2022 and 2023. With the revised data we probably have the second lowest cumulative growth since Q4 19 among G7 economies with Germany below us, France slightly ahead, Italy a bit further ahead and Japan, Canada and the US doing better than Europe. Although as those countries mostly haven't yet made the same thorough revisions the ONS is undertaking the picture will likely change again.
This guy thinks we are now ahead of France AND Germany, and same as Japan (albeit behind Italy). Others have slightly different takes
And there is a theory this is UK-specific. I’m sorry to rain on your Britain-hating parade
He's looking at data to Q1 2023, I am looking at data to Q2 2023, because Q2 numbers are available for every G7 country except Canada. Leon, this is my day job, I won't lecture you on rooftop cocktail bars, don't try to explain economics to me. And leave off the tiresome 'Britain-hating' BS. If I hated Britain I'd be fucking delighted with Brexit, believe me.
We are now likely the best performing large European economy. Or so some are saying
Like, WTF??
Unlikely as these revisions don't affect 2022 and 2023. With the revised data we probably have the second lowest cumulative growth since Q4 19 among G7 economies with Germany below us, France slightly ahead, Italy a bit further ahead and Japan, Canada and the US doing better than Europe. Although as those countries mostly haven't yet made the same thorough revisions the ONS is undertaking the picture will likely change again.
This guy thinks we are now ahead of France AND Germany, and same as Japan (albeit behind Italy). Others have slightly different takes
And there is a theory this is UK-specific. I’m sorry to rain on your Britain-hating parade
He's looking at data to Q1 2023, I am looking at data to Q2 2023, because Q2 numbers are available for every G7 country except Canada. Leon, this is my day job, I won't lecture you on rooftop cocktail bars, don't try to explain economics to me. And leave off the tiresome 'Britain-hating' BS. If I hated Britain I'd be fucking delighted with Brexit, believe me.
And figures as recent as 2Q23 are bound to be revised significantly. We’re only in August!
Fact is this does destroy a central thrust of Labour’s narrative. But I’m sure they can find other ones. The government is still undeniably useless, even if our economy is doing slightly but pleasingly better better than we thought
We are now likely the best performing large European economy. Or so some are saying
Like, WTF??
Unlikely as these revisions don't affect 2022 and 2023. With the revised data we probably have the second lowest cumulative growth since Q4 19 among G7 economies with Germany below us, France slightly ahead, Italy a bit further ahead and Japan, Canada and the US doing better than Europe. Although as those countries mostly haven't yet made the same thorough revisions the ONS is undertaking the picture will likely change again.
This guy thinks we are now ahead of France AND Germany, and same as Japan (albeit behind Italy). Others have slightly different takes
And there is a theory this is UK-specific. I’m sorry to rain on your Britain-hating parade
He's looking at data to Q1 2023, I am looking at data to Q2 2023, because Q2 numbers are available for every G7 country except Canada. Leon, this is my day job, I won't lecture you on rooftop cocktail bars, don't try to explain economics to me. And leave off the tiresome 'Britain-hating' BS. If I hated Britain I'd be fucking delighted with Brexit, believe me.
We are now likely the best performing large European economy. Or so some are saying
Like, WTF??
Unlikely as these revisions don't affect 2022 and 2023. With the revised data we probably have the second lowest cumulative growth since Q4 19 among G7 economies with Germany below us, France slightly ahead, Italy a bit further ahead and Japan, Canada and the US doing better than Europe. Although as those countries mostly haven't yet made the same thorough revisions the ONS is undertaking the picture will likely change again.
This guy thinks we are now ahead of France AND Germany, and same as Japan (albeit behind Italy). Others have slightly different takes
And there is a theory this is UK-specific. I’m sorry to rain on your Britain-hating parade
How is the move to paying very low tax in Portugal and leave Britain behind going?
We are now likely the best performing large European economy. Or so some are saying
Like, WTF??
Unlikely as these revisions don't affect 2022 and 2023. With the revised data we probably have the second lowest cumulative growth since Q4 19 among G7 economies with Germany below us, France slightly ahead, Italy a bit further ahead and Japan, Canada and the US doing better than Europe. Although as those countries mostly haven't yet made the same thorough revisions the ONS is undertaking the picture will likely change again.
This guy thinks we are now ahead of France AND Germany, and same as Japan (albeit behind Italy). Others have slightly different takes
And there is a theory this is UK-specific. I’m sorry to rain on your Britain-hating parade
He's looking at data to Q1 2023, I am looking at data to Q2 2023, because Q2 numbers are available for every G7 country except Canada. Leon, this is my day job, I won't lecture you on rooftop cocktail bars, don't try to explain economics to me. And leave off the tiresome 'Britain-hating' BS. If I hated Britain I'd be fucking delighted with Brexit, believe me.
You hate Brexit so you hate Brexit Britain. Brexit Britain doing “actually quite ok” is a threat to your weltanschauunggggggyyy
We are now likely the best performing large European economy. Or so some are saying
Like, WTF??
Unlikely as these revisions don't affect 2022 and 2023. With the revised data we probably have the second lowest cumulative growth since Q4 19 among G7 economies with Germany below us, France slightly ahead, Italy a bit further ahead and Japan, Canada and the US doing better than Europe. Although as those countries mostly haven't yet made the same thorough revisions the ONS is undertaking the picture will likely change again.
This guy thinks we are now ahead of France AND Germany, and same as Japan (albeit behind Italy). Others have slightly different takes
And there is a theory this is UK-specific. I’m sorry to rain on your Britain-hating parade
He's looking at data to Q1 2023, I am looking at data to Q2 2023, because Q2 numbers are available for every G7 country except Canada. Leon, this is my day job, I won't lecture you on rooftop cocktail bars, don't try to explain economics to me. And leave off the tiresome 'Britain-hating' BS. If I hated Britain I'd be fucking delighted with Brexit, believe me.
And figures as recent as 2Q23 are bound to be revised significantly. We’re only in August!
Fact is this does destroy a central thrust of Labour’s narrative. But I’m sure they can find other ones. The government is still undeniably useless, even if our economy is doing slightly but pleasingly better better than we thought
The ONS is about as good as a weatherman tryhing to predict the weather in a months time. Completely pointless. How could they be so far wrong.
On topic. Surely the imminent constituency polls of mid Bedfordshire will end the LibDem Labour standoff, hurtle one of them into light campaigning mode, inform the voters what the clear tactical vote is, thus placing the Tory’s in greater peril, and change the betting completely?
Crumbling Schools. Why a news story now, last week of august? My mum is right in this one, the Tory’s are being stitched up by The Blob yet again.
Judging by the member comms I've had Labour are going for this one. I think they have to. The upside is enormous if they pull it off. It will point to a possible landslide at the GE. And if they don't and a split vote lets the Tories in, well that will serve as a great lesson for next year. Ditto if a critical mass of anti-tory voters decide to ignore the Labour effort and elect a LD instead. That's also a great lesson for next year. Any which way the political calculus says that Labour have to try and win this byelection.
“if they [Labour] pull it off. It will point to a possible landslide at the GE”
No it won’t. It’s daft to be convinced of that. By-elections and the GE vote itself are two completely different things. For evidence, look at the 1992, Labour win a by-election on eve of the election they couldn’t hold weeks later in the GE.
MB is interesting to us psephologists in that there’s lots of places at the next election where Lib plus Lab totals convincingly eclipse the Tory winning score, if tactical voting isn’t precise enough - but I suspect constituency polls will guide the tactical voters more so than how hard Lab and Lib are going for it there. In fact more than that, there may be Constituency polling in the run up to the GE commissioned just for Lib Dem or Labour eyes only, psephologist and political betting won’t ever see.
MB is also interesting to psephology for another reason. If it does come down to just one clear challenger for the Tories, but the Tories hold on, what are the reasons for the Tory win. Ulez? Or is it a constituency with lot of pensioners, so it’s a safe Grey Wall seat for the Tories, come whatever kind of election.
Polls being followed by a Moon Rabbit ... Moon Rabbit Moon Rabbit
But yes, yes it will. Not to a definite landslide, no way, and I didn't say that, but to the realistic chance of one. Why? Because it will point to not just a strong desire to remove the Tories but to a willingness to elect a Labour MP in this sort of seat. The more the anti-Tory vote in Middle England does this the higher the chance of that big Labour win.
I don’t buy what you are saying. All the big Lib Dem mid term by election wins show willingness to put in a Lib Dem government? The by election horrors for Tories in early 80s proved the era Thatcherism was about to come to an end?
Alternatively, safe, short termist, protest votes, knowing you don’t have to make your mind up about PM or party of government.
By elections and GE day are two completely different things.
I mean. Just look at the graphs. The first graph shows swedish sexual offences against women, including rape
The second graph shows Swedish immigration. The purple line is migration into Sweden
Here's one that will blow your mind.
[snip]
Whilst I get your point, you missed the problem. @BartholomewRoberts spotted this and I didn't (me stupid).
The first graph measures percentage of Swedes exposed (to sexual offences?). It measures the amount.
The second graph measures movement into Sweden, although because he omitted the y-axis [facepalm] I don't know if it's a %age or absolute value. Regardless, it measures the change in the absolute number of immigrants (a delta), not the absolute value. It measures the change in the amount.
Leon mistook the second graph as measuring the amount and inferred a correlation between the amount of immigrants and the amount of exposure:
I thought under Labour's PFI schemes, loads of money was spent doing up schools, rebuilding infrastructure etc.,. So how come schools are now at risk of falling down because of dodgy and/or inadequate concrete?
Nice try.
Whereas it is certainly nothing to do with the current government. NoSiree! I don't believe you can pin this one on Blair. Wilson and Callaghan, yes. So you are right it is a Labour generated problem, but from a different era. Much like Attlee and Bevan should be up in front of the Health Select Committee to explain the current mess that is the NHS, had they not died decades ago.
P.S. I suspect the current furore relates to an issue that has been known about for many years which only comes to a head a few days before term is due to start. But blame Wilson and Callaghan by all means.
It was a genuine question not a political point. I am not blaming anyone. And as you well know the Tories have been in power for longer than Labour in the post war years so if it's down to previous governments they are probably as responsible as anyone else.
I don't know anything about PFI and schools but am puzzled at how such a problem has arisen if lots of money was spent on schools. Maybe it was spent on different things. Or only on new schools. I'm genuinely curious about what PFI was spent on.
And how it is that this has only arisen now. Is there not a regular maintenance programme?
I am a trustee of a school and one of the matters we regular consider when setting budgets is maintenance and refurbishment costs - and I'm not just talking about internal decoration either.
But make your silly political points if it makes you feel better.
I was being flippant, and for that I should apologise.
I am not particularly fond of the Labour Party, particularly living here in Wales. But wouldn't it be fantastic if a centrist party based around LibDem ideology could replace them before the next GE. Unfortunately that isn't going to happen so we are lumbered with the hopeless Starmer as opposed to any number of even more hopeless and venal Conservative Prime Ministerial options.
You are right about my "silly political points", I detest the current Conservative Government, and to be honest, almost everything they have done to our country since 2010, and certainly since 2016, including Gove's shelving of a programme to rebuild 719 schools in 2010.
"I am not particularly fond of the Labour Party, particularly living here in Wales. But wouldn't it be fantastic if a centrist party based around LibDem ideology could replace them before the next GE."
QTWTAIN !!!!
Fortunately it will never happen. A party of NIMBY centrist Dad types. No thanks
They would get nothing done. But they would be very polite. So that's alright then.
This schools stuff looks bad. 'Crumbling schools' and children being unable to get out from under their parents' feet after a seven-week summer break is grim fare.
On topic. Surely the imminent constituency polls of mid Bedfordshire will end the LibDem Labour standoff, hurtle one of them into light campaigning mode, inform the voters what the clear tactical vote is, thus placing the Tory’s in greater peril, and change the betting completely?
Crumbling Schools. Why a news story now, last week of august? My mum is right in this one, the Tory’s are being stitched up by The Blob yet again.
Judging by the member comms I've had Labour are going for this one. I think they have to. The upside is enormous if they pull it off. It will point to a possible landslide at the GE. And if they don't and a split vote lets the Tories in, well that will serve as a great lesson for next year. Ditto if a critical mass of anti-tory voters decide to ignore the Labour effort and elect a LD instead. That's also a great lesson for next year. Any which way the political calculus says that Labour have to try and win this byelection.
“if they [Labour] pull it off. It will point to a possible landslide at the GE”
No it won’t. It’s daft to be convinced of that. By-elections and the GE vote itself are two completely different things. For evidence, look at the 1992, Labour win a by-election on eve of the election they couldn’t hold weeks later in the GE.
MB is interesting to us psephologists in that there’s lots of places at the next election where Lib plus Lab totals convincingly eclipse the Tory winning score, if tactical voting isn’t precise enough - but I suspect constituency polls will guide the tactical voters more so than how hard Lab and Lib are going for it there. In fact more than that, there may be Constituency polling in the run up to the GE commissioned just for Lib Dem or Labour eyes only, psephologist and political betting won’t ever see.
MB is also interesting to psephology for another reason. If it does come down to just one clear challenger for the Tories, but the Tories hold on, what are the reasons for the Tory win. Ulez? Or is it a constituency with lot of pensioners, so it’s a safe Grey Wall seat for the Tories, come whatever kind of election.
Polls being followed by a Moon Rabbit ... Moon Rabbit Moon Rabbit
But yes, yes it will. Not to a definite landslide, no way, and I didn't say that, but to the realistic chance of one. Why? Because it will point to not just a strong desire to remove the Tories but to a willingness to elect a Labour MP in this sort of seat. The more the anti-Tory vote in Middle England does this the higher the chance of that big Labour win.
I don’t buy what you are saying. All the big Lib Dem mid term by election wins show willingness to put in a Lib Dem government? The by election horrors for Tories in early 80s proved the era Thatcherism was about to come to an end?
Alternatively, safe, short termist, protest votes, knowing you don’t have to make your mind up about PM or party of government.
By elections and GE day are two completely different things.
Directly, it gets this sort of seat to consider Labour as a possible tactical vote on GE day.
Will demonstrate with old seats, as those are the ones for which EC have ordered regional seats, but similar will apply to new seats.
Labour predicted to gain Huntingdon. Sounds unlikely:
But that gain is made with no squeeze on LD voting. Imagine if there were an LD squeeze (as LD not targeting) and post Beds Mid Labour seemed a more natural vote there to ditch the Tories.It becomes easier.
On topic. Surely the imminent constituency polls of mid Bedfordshire will end the LibDem Labour standoff, hurtle one of them into light campaigning mode, inform the voters what the clear tactical vote is, thus placing the Tory’s in greater peril, and change the betting completely?
Crumbling Schools. Why a news story now, last week of august? My mum is right in this one, the Tory’s are being stitched up by The Blob yet again.
Judging by the member comms I've had Labour are going for this one. I think they have to. The upside is enormous if they pull it off. It will point to a possible landslide at the GE. And if they don't and a split vote lets the Tories in, well that will serve as a great lesson for next year. Ditto if a critical mass of anti-tory voters decide to ignore the Labour effort and elect a LD instead. That's also a great lesson for next year. Any which way the political calculus says that Labour have to try and win this byelection.
“if they [Labour] pull it off. It will point to a possible landslide at the GE”
No it won’t. It’s daft to be convinced of that. By-elections and the GE vote itself are two completely different things. For evidence, look at the 1992, Labour win a by-election on eve of the election they couldn’t hold weeks later in the GE.
MB is interesting to us psephologists in that there’s lots of places at the next election where Lib plus Lab totals convincingly eclipse the Tory winning score, if tactical voting isn’t precise enough - but I suspect constituency polls will guide the tactical voters more so than how hard Lab and Lib are going for it there. In fact more than that, there may be Constituency polling in the run up to the GE commissioned just for Lib Dem or Labour eyes only, psephologist and political betting won’t ever see.
MB is also interesting to psephology for another reason. If it does come down to just one clear challenger for the Tories, but the Tories hold on, what are the reasons for the Tory win. Ulez? Or is it a constituency with lot of pensioners, so it’s a safe Grey Wall seat for the Tories, come whatever kind of election.
Polls being followed by a Moon Rabbit ... Moon Rabbit Moon Rabbit
But yes, yes it will. Not to a definite landslide, no way, and I didn't say that, but to the realistic chance of one. Why? Because it will point to not just a strong desire to remove the Tories but to a willingness to elect a Labour MP in this sort of seat. The more the anti-Tory vote in Middle England does this the higher the chance of that big Labour win.
I don’t buy what you are saying. All the big Lib Dem mid term by election wins show willingness to put in a Lib Dem government? The by election horrors for Tories in early 80s proved the era Thatcherism was about to come to an end?
Alternatively, safe, short termist, protest votes, knowing you don’t have to make your mind up about PM or party of government.
By elections and GE day are two completely different things.
You can't really compare the pre-Falklands SDP gains with the situation now, and I don't think anyone would given the Lib Dems plainly aren't polling early Alliance levels or anything even vaguely like it.
I'd also note the Conservatives had a reasonable record in by-elections from 1982 - they gained Mitcham & Morden and, although they lost Birmingham Northfield, the swing to Labour was under 1% (it was an ultra-marginal).
They didn't have a dreadful record immediately before the 1987 election either. Ryedale was a shocker (and I agree a very poor indicator of the election to come) but they narrowly held off the Liberals in West Derbyshire and the swing to gain Fulham for Labour was quite modest.
I do take your point that you're not going to see the sort of monster swings of getting on for 30% that you saw in recent Lib Dem by-election gains at a General Election (nor indeed the very big Selby swing to Labour). But you do need to appreciate these are substantially bigger than the swings of the Thatcher era. Effectively saying "well, Maggie lost some by-elections, so what?" overlooks the extent to which these are a warning.
This schools stuff looks bad. 'Crumbling schools' and children being unable to get out from under their parents' feet after a seven-week summer break is grim fare.
It's slightly odd, how it's only become a thing just before schools are due to open, rather than at the start of the summer holidays.
This schools stuff looks bad. 'Crumbling schools' and children being unable to get out from under their parents' feet after a seven-week summer break is grim fare.
Even though it’s only effecting relatively few it just fits in with the most of the public’s view that the country is turning into a basket case .
On topic. Surely the imminent constituency polls of mid Bedfordshire will end the LibDem Labour standoff, hurtle one of them into light campaigning mode, inform the voters what the clear tactical vote is, thus placing the Tory’s in greater peril, and change the betting completely?
Crumbling Schools. Why a news story now, last week of august? My mum is right in this one, the Tory’s are being stitched up by The Blob yet again.
Judging by the member comms I've had Labour are going for this one. I think they have to. The upside is enormous if they pull it off. It will point to a possible landslide at the GE. And if they don't and a split vote lets the Tories in, well that will serve as a great lesson for next year. Ditto if a critical mass of anti-tory voters decide to ignore the Labour effort and elect a LD instead. That's also a great lesson for next year. Any which way the political calculus says that Labour have to try and win this byelection.
“if they [Labour] pull it off. It will point to a possible landslide at the GE”
No it won’t. It’s daft to be convinced of that. By-elections and the GE vote itself are two completely different things. For evidence, look at the 1992, Labour win a by-election on eve of the election they couldn’t hold weeks later in the GE.
MB is interesting to us psephologists in that there’s lots of places at the next election where Lib plus Lab totals convincingly eclipse the Tory winning score, if tactical voting isn’t precise enough - but I suspect constituency polls will guide the tactical voters more so than how hard Lab and Lib are going for it there. In fact more than that, there may be Constituency polling in the run up to the GE commissioned just for Lib Dem or Labour eyes only, psephologist and political betting won’t ever see.
MB is also interesting to psephology for another reason. If it does come down to just one clear challenger for the Tories, but the Tories hold on, what are the reasons for the Tory win. Ulez? Or is it a constituency with lot of pensioners, so it’s a safe Grey Wall seat for the Tories, come whatever kind of election.
Polls being followed by a Moon Rabbit ... Moon Rabbit Moon Rabbit
But yes, yes it will. Not to a definite landslide, no way, and I didn't say that, but to the realistic chance of one. Why? Because it will point to not just a strong desire to remove the Tories but to a willingness to elect a Labour MP in this sort of seat. The more the anti-Tory vote in Middle England does this the higher the chance of that big Labour win.
I don’t buy what you are saying. All the big Lib Dem mid term by election wins show willingness to put in a Lib Dem government? The by election horrors for Tories in early 80s proved the era Thatcherism was about to come to an end?
Alternatively, safe, short termist, protest votes, knowing you don’t have to make your mind up about PM or party of government.
By elections and GE day are two completely different things.
Directly, it gets this sort of seat to consider Labour as a possible tactical vote on GE day.
Will demonstrate with old seats, as those are the ones for which EC have ordered regional seats, but similar will apply to new seats.
Labour predicted to gain Huntingdon. Sounds unlikely:
But that gain is made with no squeeze on LD voting. Imagine if there were an LD squeeze (as LD not targeting) and post Beds Mid Labour seemed a more natural vote there to ditch the Tories.It becomes easier.
More importantly, there are plenty of Southern seats where LD are not contenders but Lab are. Places that have memory of Labour MPs - Chatham, Thanet, Dover - perhaps know.
Basingstoke and Worthing voters may not be so aware and a Labour Mid Beds win may stem some LD leakage there, if Labour have demonstrated their contendership:
This schools stuff looks bad. 'Crumbling schools' and children being unable to get out from under their parents' feet after a seven-week summer break is grim fare.
Even though it’s only effecting relatively few it just fits in with the most of the public’s view that the country is turning into a basket case .
Indeed, in percentage terms it's likely tiny – but aligns with the 'nothing bloody works in this country anymore' thing.
UK GDP is now, in fact, comfortably over its pre pandemic level and in line with peer nations and better than some. Not quite the Brexit basket-case that has been portrayed.
Excellent! An irrelevant metric (GDP) has gone up! The schools are falling down, the people are getting old, the children are badly educated, the town centres are crap, the houses are smaller and nothing works. But GDP has gone up. SO THAT'S ALRIGHT THEN.
If the Matrix came true and everybody was in pods, but the GDP of Zion went up, you'd be happy. If we imported slaves to do menial work and GDP went up, you'd be happy. If Daleks invaded and created Robomen to work and GDP went up, you'd be happy. If Nazi Germany invaded and literally enslaved the population and GDP went up, you'd be happy.
GDP measures the size of an economy. It does not measure the benefits to its people or even where the benefits are going. The Americans found out in Afghanistan that it's an inadequate metric but we are still nailed to it like it's meaningful.
This schools stuff looks bad. 'Crumbling schools' and children being unable to get out from under their parents' feet after a seven-week summer break is grim fare.
Even though it’s only effecting relatively few it just fits in with the most of the public’s view that the country is turning into a basket case .
It's almost too good to be true for opponents of the government, the timing of it. But the government can't complain about it, because this problem has been known about for a long time.
This schools stuff looks bad. 'Crumbling schools' and children being unable to get out from under their parents' feet after a seven-week summer break is grim fare.
We are now likely the best performing large European economy. Or so some are saying
Like, WTF??
Unlikely as these revisions don't affect 2022 and 2023. With the revised data we probably have the second lowest cumulative growth since Q4 19 among G7 economies with Germany below us, France slightly ahead, Italy a bit further ahead and Japan, Canada and the US doing better than Europe. Although as those countries mostly haven't yet made the same thorough revisions the ONS is undertaking the picture will likely change again.
This guy thinks we are now ahead of France AND Germany, and same as Japan (albeit behind Italy). Others have slightly different takes
And there is a theory this is UK-specific. I’m sorry to rain on your Britain-hating parade
He's looking at data to Q1 2023, I am looking at data to Q2 2023, because Q2 numbers are available for every G7 country except Canada. Leon, this is my day job, I won't lecture you on rooftop cocktail bars, don't try to explain economics to me. And leave off the tiresome 'Britain-hating' BS. If I hated Britain I'd be fucking delighted with Brexit, believe me.
And figures as recent as 2Q23 are bound to be revised significantly. We’re only in August!
Fact is this does destroy a central thrust of Labour’s narrative. But I’m sure they can find other ones. The government is still undeniably useless, even if our economy is doing slightly but pleasingly better better than we thought
Unfortunately for Sunak people aren't turning against the Tories because of macroeconomic data.
People are turning against the Tories because of microeconomic data.
Revisions in macroeconomics, GDP growth etc, mean absolutely nothing to people who are pissed off as their taxes are going up, their prices are going up and their take home pay is not going up accordingly.
The fact that Sunak changing taxes to introduce fiscal drag is a large part of the reason why people's take home pay isn't keeping up with inflation doesn't help matters. Though many people won't even realise that, all they'll realise is their take home pay can't keep up with expenditure it could in the past.
"Are you better off than you were five years ago" is a cardinal rule of politics. Even if GDP data is looking healthy, if people's personal response to that is "no", then that's not good for a government looking for votes.
Never helps politically to get these revisions. The publics view has already been set, and based mire on feels than data anyway.
So I'm with BartholomewRoberts in being skeptical to destroys the anti Tory narrative.
When we were and then were not technically in recession in the Cameron years after revisions it didn't really change things. When doomsayers said we were screwed in 2019 the public didn't buy it. They do now.
UK GDP is now, in fact, comfortably over its pre pandemic level and in line with peer nations and better than some. Not quite the Brexit basket-case that has been portrayed.
Excellent! An irrelevant metric (GDP) has gone up! The schools are falling down, the people are getting old, the children are badly educated, the town centres are crap, the houses are smaller and nothing works. But GDP has gone up. SO THAT'S ALRIGHT THEN.
If the Matrix came true and everybody was in pods, but the GDP of Zion went up, you'd be happy. If we imported slaves to do menial work and GDP went up, you'd be happy. If Daleks invaded and created Robomen to work and GDP went up, you'd be happy. If Nazi Germany invaded and literally enslaved the population and GDP went up, you'd be happy.
GDP measures the size of an economy. It does not measure the benefits to its people or even where the benefits are going. The Americans found out in Afghanistan that it's an inadequate metric but we are still nailed to it like it's meaningful.
Are you quite alright?
Read my comments. I actually say upthread “the government is still useless” - which it is. Worn out, clueless, lacking cullions. Time for them to go
Moreover it’s not that surprising our GDP is rising - given the vast scale of net migration
Nonetheless the stat is a pleasing upnote to counter the endless negativity
Lol at the PB Tories celebrating a marginal adjustment in GDP figures, moving us from terrible to mediocre at best, and blaming the Blair Government for our schools being unsafe to use.
We are now likely the best performing large European economy. Or so some are saying
Like, WTF??
Unlikely as these revisions don't affect 2022 and 2023. With the revised data we probably have the second lowest cumulative growth since Q4 19 among G7 economies with Germany below us, France slightly ahead, Italy a bit further ahead and Japan, Canada and the US doing better than Europe. Although as those countries mostly haven't yet made the same thorough revisions the ONS is undertaking the picture will likely change again.
This guy thinks we are now ahead of France AND Germany, and same as Japan (albeit behind Italy). Others have slightly different takes
And there is a theory this is UK-specific. I’m sorry to rain on your Britain-hating parade
He's looking at data to Q1 2023, I am looking at data to Q2 2023, because Q2 numbers are available for every G7 country except Canada. Leon, this is my day job, I won't lecture you on rooftop cocktail bars, don't try to explain economics to me. And leave off the tiresome 'Britain-hating' BS. If I hated Britain I'd be fucking delighted with Brexit, believe me.
And figures as recent as 2Q23 are bound to be revised significantly. We’re only in August!
Fact is this does destroy a central thrust of Labour’s narrative. But I’m sure they can find other ones. The government is still undeniably useless, even if our economy is doing slightly but pleasingly better better than we thought
The ONS is about as good as a weatherman tryhing to predict the weather in a months time. Completely pointless. How could they be so far wrong.
As my economics tutor argued many decades ago, when you find out how they collect GDP data, and other economic statistics, the question is actually, how can they come out with such plausible and relatively consistent guesses so much of the time.
To begin with, it's done by surveys, and only a small sample of firms and individuals are questioned. Secondly, a large and growing proportion of those surveyed don't actually return their forms. Thirdly, in times of great change, when you need economic data the most, your survey sample becomes out of data pretty quickly. Fourthly, there are actually three measures of GDP (income, output and expenditure), which should tally exactly, but in practice don't. Fifthly, we're measuring real, not nominal GDP, so once you get the survey results you still have to deflate them, which means you need to use inflation stats, which have plenty of issues of their own. Sixth, there's a big black economy, which complicates collection in various ways. Seven, the treatment of inventories, where goods are produced but not consumed, is another world of pain (and of inconsistency between countries). Etc. etc. etc.
The IMF have a good moan about all these issues and more here, in the unlikely event that people want to find out more:
UK GDP is now, in fact, comfortably over its pre pandemic level and in line with peer nations and better than some. Not quite the Brexit basket-case that has been portrayed.
Excellent! An irrelevant metric (GDP) has gone up! The schools are falling down, the people are getting old, the children are badly educated, the town centres are crap, the houses are smaller and nothing works. But GDP has gone up. SO THAT'S ALRIGHT THEN.
If the Matrix came true and everybody was in pods, but the GDP of Zion went up, you'd be happy. If we imported slaves to do menial work and GDP went up, you'd be happy. If Daleks invaded and created Robomen to work and GDP went up, you'd be happy. If Nazi Germany invaded and literally enslaved the population and GDP went up, you'd be happy.
GDP measures the size of an economy. It does not measure the benefits to its people or even where the benefits are going. The Americans found out in Afghanistan that it's an inadequate metric but we are still nailed to it like it's meaningful.
It's not meaningless. For people to be broadly happy it's necessary but not sufficient for it to go up.
Lol at the PB Tories celebrating a marginal adjustment in GDP figures, moving us from terrible to mediocre at best, and blaming the Blair Government for our schools being unsafe to use.
This schools stuff looks bad. 'Crumbling schools' and children being unable to get out from under their parents' feet after a seven-week summer break is grim fare.
Even though it’s only effecting relatively few it just fits in with the most of the public’s view that the country is turning into a basket case .
Indeed, in percentage terms it's likely tiny – but aligns with the 'nothing bloody works in this country anymore' thing.
A bit like the "Before Thatcher, we couldn't even bury people" meme, which the Conservatives dined out on for a couple of decades.
True, but only briefly and only in one place, but it touched a nerve.
"Last time, the tories let schools and hospitals crumble so badly they had to close" (or words to that effect) will be being used by Otherlot politicians well into the 2040s.
Lol at the PB Tories celebrating a marginal adjustment in GDP figures, moving us from terrible to mediocre at best, and blaming the Blair Government for our schools being unsafe to use.
Never helps politically to get these revisions. The publics view has already been set, and based mire on feels than data anyway.
So I'm with BartholomewRoberts in being skeptical to destroys the anti Tory narrative.
When we were and then were not technically in recession in the Cameron years after revisions it didn't really change things. When doomsayers said we were screwed in 2019 the public didn't buy it. They do now.
Question is, are the Usual Suspects wise in trumpeting these better numbers, or are they just going to annoy the wider public who are looking out of their windows and wondering why everything is so shabby and so many shops are empty?
Lol at the PB Tories celebrating a marginal adjustment in GDP figures, moving us from terrible to mediocre at best, and blaming the Blair Government for our schools being unsafe to use.
I think the official phraseology runs thus:
Only from the PB Tories.
Only on PB.
Unspoofable.
I agree 100% – the government are indeed unspoofable.
This schools stuff looks bad. 'Crumbling schools' and children being unable to get out from under their parents' feet after a seven-week summer break is grim fare.
Even though it’s only effecting relatively few it just fits in with the most of the public’s view that the country is turning into a basket case .
Indeed, in percentage terms it's likely tiny – but aligns with the 'nothing bloody works in this country anymore' thing.
"Last time, the tories let schools and hospitals crumble so badly they had to close" (or words to that effect) will be being used by Otherlot politicians well into the 2040s.
Yes.
Even the Mail thinks we're now a 'third world' country.
We are now likely the best performing large European economy. Or so some are saying
Like, WTF??
Unlikely as these revisions don't affect 2022 and 2023. With the revised data we probably have the second lowest cumulative growth since Q4 19 among G7 economies with Germany below us, France slightly ahead, Italy a bit further ahead and Japan, Canada and the US doing better than Europe. Although as those countries mostly haven't yet made the same thorough revisions the ONS is undertaking the picture will likely change again.
This guy thinks we are now ahead of France AND Germany, and same as Japan (albeit behind Italy). Others have slightly different takes
And there is a theory this is UK-specific. I’m sorry to rain on your Britain-hating parade
He's looking at data to Q1 2023, I am looking at data to Q2 2023, because Q2 numbers are available for every G7 country except Canada. Leon, this is my day job, I won't lecture you on rooftop cocktail bars, don't try to explain economics to me. And leave off the tiresome 'Britain-hating' BS. If I hated Britain I'd be fucking delighted with Brexit, believe me.
I strongly suspect that, given his choice in hotels, the rooftop cocktail bars are no cop either.
The kind of places where the margaritas are sweeter than cough medicine....
Lol at the PB Tories celebrating a marginal adjustment in GDP figures, moving us from terrible to mediocre at best, and blaming the Blair Government for our schools being unsafe to use.
I think the official phraseology runs thus:
Only from the PB Tories.
Only on PB.
Unspoofable.
I agree 100% – the government are indeed unspoofable.
I wonder whether the schools closures so far might be a tip of an iceberg? Sounds like lots of LEAs haven't yet checked whether their schools have RAAC in them? Might be misreading that but seems possible?
We are now likely the best performing large European economy. Or so some are saying
Like, WTF??
Unlikely as these revisions don't affect 2022 and 2023. With the revised data we probably have the second lowest cumulative growth since Q4 19 among G7 economies with Germany below us, France slightly ahead, Italy a bit further ahead and Japan, Canada and the US doing better than Europe. Although as those countries mostly haven't yet made the same thorough revisions the ONS is undertaking the picture will likely change again.
It is clear that the final picture will not emerge for some time and international comparisons are generally problematic in any event. What I would say is that these upward revisals in GDP bring it more into line with the large increase in IT paid in July than hitherto. Whether it yet covers all of that apparent increase in aggregate incomes remains to be seen.
We are now likely the best performing large European economy. Or so some are saying
Like, WTF??
Unlikely as these revisions don't affect 2022 and 2023. With the revised data we probably have the second lowest cumulative growth since Q4 19 among G7 economies with Germany below us, France slightly ahead, Italy a bit further ahead and Japan, Canada and the US doing better than Europe. Although as those countries mostly haven't yet made the same thorough revisions the ONS is undertaking the picture will likely change again.
This guy thinks we are now ahead of France AND Germany, and same as Japan (albeit behind Italy). Others have slightly different takes
And there is a theory this is UK-specific. I’m sorry to rain on your Britain-hating parade
All of which is irrelevant to the folk whose monthly outgoings increased vastly thanks to the crapness of the government. So GDP is fair-to-middling, great but that doesn't cover the extra £400 Liz Truss sent my mortgage up by [etc.]
Will there come a point when the media clamour is along the lines of 'for God's sake get it over with?'
Serious question. It's not all about the media, but if they really turn against, as they did in 1978/9 and 1996/7, then it becomes a miserable exercise to try and continue governing.
Never helps politically to get these revisions. The publics view has already been set, and based mire on feels than data anyway.
So I'm with BartholomewRoberts in being skeptical to destroys the anti Tory narrative.
When we were and then were not technically in recession in the Cameron years after revisions it didn't really change things. When doomsayers said we were screwed in 2019 the public didn't buy it. They do now.
Also Rishi made himself hostage to fortune with his idiotic pledges. Even if he achieves one or two of them, it actually diminishes those successes.
Lol at the PB Tories celebrating a marginal adjustment in GDP figures, moving us from terrible to mediocre at best, and blaming the Blair Government for our schools being unsafe to use.
I think the official phraseology runs thus:
Only from the PB Tories.
Only on PB.
Unspoofable.
I agree 100% – the government are indeed unspoofable.
On topic. Surely the imminent constituency polls of mid Bedfordshire will end the LibDem Labour standoff, hurtle one of them into light campaigning mode, inform the voters what the clear tactical vote is, thus placing the Tory’s in greater peril, and change the betting completely?
Crumbling Schools. Why a news story now, last week of august? My mum is right in this one, the Tory’s are being stitched up by The Blob yet again.
Judging by the member comms I've had Labour are going for this one. I think they have to. The upside is enormous if they pull it off. It will point to a possible landslide at the GE. And if they don't and a split vote lets the Tories in, well that will serve as a great lesson for next year. Ditto if a critical mass of anti-tory voters decide to ignore the Labour effort and elect a LD instead. That's also a great lesson for next year. Any which way the political calculus says that Labour have to try and win this byelection.
“if they [Labour] pull it off. It will point to a possible landslide at the GE”
No it won’t. It’s daft to be convinced of that. By-elections and the GE vote itself are two completely different things. For evidence, look at the 1992, Labour win a by-election on eve of the election they couldn’t hold weeks later in the GE.
MB is interesting to us psephologists in that there’s lots of places at the next election where Lib plus Lab totals convincingly eclipse the Tory winning score, if tactical voting isn’t precise enough - but I suspect constituency polls will guide the tactical voters more so than how hard Lab and Lib are going for it there. In fact more than that, there may be Constituency polling in the run up to the GE commissioned just for Lib Dem or Labour eyes only, psephologist and political betting won’t ever see.
MB is also interesting to psephology for another reason. If it does come down to just one clear challenger for the Tories, but the Tories hold on, what are the reasons for the Tory win. Ulez? Or is it a constituency with lot of pensioners, so it’s a safe Grey Wall seat for the Tories, come whatever kind of election.
Polls being followed by a Moon Rabbit ... Moon Rabbit Moon Rabbit
But yes, yes it will. Not to a definite landslide, no way, and I didn't say that, but to the realistic chance of one. Why? Because it will point to not just a strong desire to remove the Tories but to a willingness to elect a Labour MP in this sort of seat. The more the anti-Tory vote in Middle England does this the higher the chance of that big Labour win.
I don’t buy what you are saying. All the big Lib Dem mid term by election wins show willingness to put in a Lib Dem government? The by election horrors for Tories in early 80s proved the era Thatcherism was about to come to an end?
Alternatively, safe, short termist, protest votes, knowing you don’t have to make your mind up about PM or party of government.
By elections and GE day are two completely different things.
Directly, it gets this sort of seat to consider Labour as a possible tactical vote on GE day.
Will demonstrate with old seats, as those are the ones for which EC have ordered regional seats, but similar will apply to new seats.
Labour predicted to gain Huntingdon. Sounds unlikely:
But that gain is made with no squeeze on LD voting. Imagine if there were an LD squeeze (as LD not targeting) and post Beds Mid Labour seemed a more natural vote there to ditch the Tories.It becomes easier.
More importantly, there are plenty of Southern seats where LD are not contenders but Lab are. Places that have memory of Labour MPs - Chatham, Thanet, Dover - perhaps know.
Basingstoke and Worthing voters may not be so aware and a Labour Mid Beds win may stem some LD leakage there, if Labour have demonstrated their contendership:
And also in some of the seats in contention where there is no history of a Lab or LD MP, recent local election results may also make it clear who the contender is.
If seats like Mid Beds are in play in a GE then the Tories are buried and nobody need worry who to vote for in seats where the contender is in doubt, as whichever comes out on top will beat the Tories in most cases anyway
Lol at the PB Tories celebrating a marginal adjustment in GDP figures, moving us from terrible to mediocre at best, and blaming the Blair Government for our schools being unsafe to use.
This schools stuff looks bad. 'Crumbling schools' and children being unable to get out from under their parents' feet after a seven-week summer break is grim fare.
Even though it’s only effecting relatively few it just fits in with the most of the public’s view that the country is turning into a basket case .
Indeed, in percentage terms it's likely tiny – but aligns with the 'nothing bloody works in this country anymore' thing.
"Last time, the tories let schools and hospitals crumble so badly they had to close" (or words to that effect) will be being used by Otherlot politicians well into the 2040s.
Yes.
Even the Mail thinks we're now a 'third world' country.
Pretty sure they've been saying that for decades now. 'Everything's bad, it's getting worse, and YOU'RE paying for it' is their shtick.
Ha ha, well done to Liverpool, for telling the Saudis where to put their £150m.
That is all.
For some reason the Saudi window doesn't SLAM SHUT for another week, which seems like a stupid, unfair rule.
Really? Last minute steals of key players is what top Premiership clubs having been doing to littler clubs for a long time. Now it’s being done to them, they are sulking like spoilt bairns 😄
"The Remain campaign in 2016 was premised on the notion that the UK had a great deal by not being part of the euro and Schengen. You won't be able to do this again. We will need to convince the electorate of the benefits of the entire acquis communautaire of the EU.
Good luck with this. The reason why we think this won't happen is not the British electorate. It is the fact that the EU supporters in the UK are mostly delusional about the EU."
"I watched society collapse at Stansted Airport" => I was delayed at the airport
Doesn’t Stansted airport show us a good facsimile of what societal collapse looks like, even when there’s no delays?
More seriously, does no-one have travel insurance any more? If the flight’s delayed, get a taxi to an hotel and sort things out from there. I was delayed overnight last week, thankfully on a decent airline - and if they hadn’t done just that for us, we’d have done it ourselves.
We are now likely the best performing large European economy. Or so some are saying
Like, WTF??
Unlikely as these revisions don't affect 2022 and 2023. With the revised data we probably have the second lowest cumulative growth since Q4 19 among G7 economies with Germany below us, France slightly ahead, Italy a bit further ahead and Japan, Canada and the US doing better than Europe. Although as those countries mostly haven't yet made the same thorough revisions the ONS is undertaking the picture will likely change again.
This guy thinks we are now ahead of France AND Germany, and same as Japan (albeit behind Italy). Others have slightly different takes
And there is a theory this is UK-specific. I’m sorry to rain on your Britain-hating parade
He's looking at data to Q1 2023, I am looking at data to Q2 2023, because Q2 numbers are available for every G7 country except Canada. Leon, this is my day job, I won't lecture you on rooftop cocktail bars, don't try to explain economics to me. And leave off the tiresome 'Britain-hating' BS. If I hated Britain I'd be fucking delighted with Brexit, believe me.
I strongly suspect that, given his choice in hotels, the rooftop cocktail bars are no cop either.
The kind of places where the margaritas are sweeter than cough medicine....
Part of my actual job - at the Gazette - is to go to the world’s best new hotels (and some old ones)
I wonder whether the schools closures so far might be a tip of an iceberg? Sounds like lots of LEAs haven't yet checked whether their schools have RAAC in them? Might be misreading that but seems possible?
I think everywhere has got RAAC in it. It will be a case of people going back to see who first championed its use and that's a coin toss between Lab & Cons.
Cons have known about this for years, and specifically were warned this June.
"I watched society collapse at Stansted Airport" => I was delayed at the airport
Doesn’t Stansted airport show us a good facsimile of what societal collapse looks like, even when there’s no delays?
More seriously, does no-one have travel insurance any more? If the flight’s delayed, get a taxi to an hotel and sort things out from there. I was delayed overnight last week, thankfully on a decent airline - and if they hadn’t done just that for us, we’d have done it ourselves.
Are there *any* halfway decent airports in this country (apart from Barra, obvs)? Vaguely remember East Midlands and George Best both being OK to fly out of.
The Arab League know Mo Salah wants to star in it as poster boy.
The day is young, Liverpool knew this was coming, and can get someone in, and will take that amount of money before the end of next week.
Liverpool always do their work under the media radar.
I'm not sure the Arab League is quite what you think it is, unless Mo Salah is a more accomplished diplomat than I'd given him credit for.
It’s a football league. And it’s in Arabia. It’s the Arab League, right? It’s a good phrase, one of those rolls off tongue like you’ve heard it before.
I stated this when Pandemic QE was in overdrive. I referenced M3 not M4X. However I was shot down in flames by PB's former resident economist, whose name was similar to that of an Anfield legend and had a pirate avatar. I wonder what happened to him?
"I watched society collapse at Stansted Airport" => I was delayed at the airport
Doesn’t Stansted airport show us a good facsimile of what societal collapse looks like, even when there’s no delays?
More seriously, does no-one have travel insurance any more? If the flight’s delayed, get a taxi to an hotel and sort things out from there. I was delayed overnight last week, thankfully on a decent airline - and if they hadn’t done just that for us, we’d have done it ourselves.
Are there *any* halfway decent airports in this country (apart from Barra, obvs)? Vaguely remember East Midlands and George Best both being OK to fly out of.
London City and Southampton my personal favourites. You can get from the door to the gate in 10 minutes most of the time.
I wonder whether the schools closures so far might be a tip of an iceberg? Sounds like lots of LEAs haven't yet checked whether their schools have RAAC in them? Might be misreading that but seems possible?
I think everywhere has got RAAC in it. It will be a case of people going back to see who first championed its use and that's a coin toss between Lab & Cons.
Cons have known about this for years, and specifically were warned this June.
Not much inherently wrong with RAAC. It's just that it's not expected to last forever, and a lot of public sector buildings have left planks of RAAC in place well beyond their intended lifespan.
To an extent, that's fine- you want the specs to be cautious. But it all needed replacing (maybe with fresh RAAC) a while back.
On topic. Surely the imminent constituency polls of mid Bedfordshire will end the LibDem Labour standoff, hurtle one of them into light campaigning mode, inform the voters what the clear tactical vote is, thus placing the Tory’s in greater peril, and change the betting completely?
Crumbling Schools. Why a news story now, last week of august? My mum is right in this one, the Tory’s are being stitched up by The Blob yet again.
Judging by the member comms I've had Labour are going for this one. I think they have to. The upside is enormous if they pull it off. It will point to a possible landslide at the GE. And if they don't and a split vote lets the Tories in, well that will serve as a great lesson for next year. Ditto if a critical mass of anti-tory voters decide to ignore the Labour effort and elect a LD instead. That's also a great lesson for next year. Any which way the political calculus says that Labour have to try and win this byelection.
“if they [Labour] pull it off. It will point to a possible landslide at the GE”
No it won’t. It’s daft to be convinced of that. By-elections and the GE vote itself are two completely different things. For evidence, look at the 1992, Labour win a by-election on eve of the election they couldn’t hold weeks later in the GE.
MB is interesting to us psephologists in that there’s lots of places at the next election where Lib plus Lab totals convincingly eclipse the Tory winning score, if tactical voting isn’t precise enough - but I suspect constituency polls will guide the tactical voters more so than how hard Lab and Lib are going for it there. In fact more than that, there may be Constituency polling in the run up to the GE commissioned just for Lib Dem or Labour eyes only, psephologist and political betting won’t ever see.
MB is also interesting to psephology for another reason. If it does come down to just one clear challenger for the Tories, but the Tories hold on, what are the reasons for the Tory win. Ulez? Or is it a constituency with lot of pensioners, so it’s a safe Grey Wall seat for the Tories, come whatever kind of election.
Polls being followed by a Moon Rabbit ... Moon Rabbit Moon Rabbit
But yes, yes it will. Not to a definite landslide, no way, and I didn't say that, but to the realistic chance of one. Why? Because it will point to not just a strong desire to remove the Tories but to a willingness to elect a Labour MP in this sort of seat. The more the anti-Tory vote in Middle England does this the higher the chance of that big Labour win.
I don’t buy what you are saying. All the big Lib Dem mid term by election wins show willingness to put in a Lib Dem government? The by election horrors for Tories in early 80s proved the era Thatcherism was about to come to an end?
Alternatively, safe, short termist, protest votes, knowing you don’t have to make your mind up about PM or party of government.
By elections and GE day are two completely different things.
Directly, it gets this sort of seat to consider Labour as a possible tactical vote on GE day.
Will demonstrate with old seats, as those are the ones for which EC have ordered regional seats, but similar will apply to new seats.
Labour predicted to gain Huntingdon. Sounds unlikely:
But that gain is made with no squeeze on LD voting. Imagine if there were an LD squeeze (as LD not targeting) and post Beds Mid Labour seemed a more natural vote there to ditch the Tories.It becomes easier.
Not impossible in the sense that Labour gained a few seats from poorer positions in 1997.
But I'd be a bit realistic here if you're thinking seat betting in due course.
A 16.5% swing is a very big swing even in a landslide election (if it turns out to be that) and requires a special effort on the ground. Maybe Labour will find a galvanising candidate to go at it, but in the most recent 2022 local elections it was Tories 22 (-8), Indies 15 (+4), Lib Dems 10 (+4) Labour 4 (unchanged), Green 1 (+1). The Council is now a Lib Dem led coalition and Labour vote across the borough was down from 2018 at around 12%. The sole local by-election since was a Lib Dem gain from Conservative.
That just doesn't scream of being an area where the best bet to beat the Conservatives is so obvious that the Lib Dems will collapse, nor one where Labour are sufficiently organised and motivated to run a Rolls Royce campaign. So will it be at the very top end of Labour stretch targets that surprisingly go? I'd think not, regardless of what a pretty basic swingometer website says.
"I watched society collapse at Stansted Airport" => I was delayed at the airport
Doesn’t Stansted airport show us a good facsimile of what societal collapse looks like, even when there’s no delays?
More seriously, does no-one have travel insurance any more? If the flight’s delayed, get a taxi to an hotel and sort things out from there. I was delayed overnight last week, thankfully on a decent airline - and if they hadn’t done just that for us, we’d have done it ourselves.
Are there *any* halfway decent airports in this country (apart from Barra, obvs)? Vaguely remember East Midlands and George Best both being OK to fly out of.
London City and Southampton my personal favourites. You can get from the door to the gate in 10 minutes most of the time.
Would quite like to visit the beach at Barra.
Can't be many places where the plane landing is an integral part of the experience of the holiday like that. I want to visit one day.
"I watched society collapse at Stansted Airport" => I was delayed at the airport
Doesn’t Stansted airport show us a good facsimile of what societal collapse looks like, even when there’s no delays?
More seriously, does no-one have travel insurance any more? If the flight’s delayed, get a taxi to an hotel and sort things out from there. I was delayed overnight last week, thankfully on a decent airline - and if they hadn’t done just that for us, we’d have done it ourselves.
Are there *any* halfway decent airports in this country (apart from Barra, obvs)? Vaguely remember East Midlands and George Best both being OK to fly out of.
LHR is a fine airport. Superbly connected to central London (probably better than any similar airport on the world - apart from Changi)
Luton is now really efficient and useful if you live in north London. Don’t expect oyster bars but it does the job
The airport on Foula is brilliant and has zero queues, or indeed buildings, because it is simply a grass strip next to plunging cliffs on the most remote island in the UK
Half the entire CO2 emitted in human history has been in the last 3 decades, and 85% in the post war period.
From all sources or just human? I have read that our emissions are dwarfed by natural emissions of it from other sources.
The natural emissions are balanced by natural absorption to form a net zero cycle, whereas human emissions are a net input. It makes no sense to compare the two.
No they are not. There is no natural net zero cycle. This is not an argument over AGW per se, just pointing out that there is no natural system that automatically equalises CO2 emmissions and absorption. Hence the reason the amounts in the atmosphere change naturally and sometimes quite radically.
Isn't the current 'natural' change is likely to be far, far lower than 2.4 ppm/year though. It could even potentially be negative right now.
~= +/- 0.024 ppm/year or so maybe ?
My comment was not, as I said, pertaining to AGW. FE and I are never going to agree on that. It was simply about his comment on a natural net zero cycle. It doesn't exist. Hence the reason we have had such massive changes in CO2 concentrations over geological time.
We're not talking about geological time though. LG's assertion was that human emissions of CO2 are small in comparison to natural emissions. While it is true that natural emissions are large, that's only one side of the equation. Natural emissions are roughly (if not - as you point out - exactly) balanced by natural absorption, so the net natural emissions are very small in comparison to human emissions (which are, of course, not balanced by absorption).
The Arab League know Mo Salah wants to star in it as poster boy.
The day is young, Liverpool knew this was coming, and can get someone in, and will take that amount of money before the end of next week.
Liverpool always do their work under the media radar.
I'm not sure the Arab League is quite what you think it is, unless Mo Salah is a more accomplished diplomat than I'd given him credit for.
It’s a football league. And it’s in Arabia. It’s the Arab League, right? It’s a good phrase, one of those rolls off tongue like you’ve heard it before.
Comments
"New @ONS data shows UK GDP grew by a staggering *1.8%* more than had been thought in 2020-21.
GDP is now known to have recovered to pre-Covid levels in 2021: 18 months earlier than had been reported last month."
https://x.com/olivercooper/status/1697550118872830074
Quite the narrative change
Happily, she now now a member of the Labour Party, and Jeremy Corbyn is not.
The other class of MPs are the rabble rousers and serial rebels who I actually think we’ve seen a bit too much of in recent years (also on the Tory benches). A few are good to have to keep front benches aware of different perspectives. Too many and it starts to get messy and helps produce bad government/opposition .
Like, WTF??
Or not. Of course.
Anyway, I have done no work in the last hour and a half, so over and out.
The narrative will still be that Brexit Britain sucks and we need to rejoin the Single Market.
The narrative and reality have a minimal relationship to each other.
Inaction against abuse and tolerance of it is a form of action.
“Does the prime minister not realise Britain is the third best performing nation in the G7, comfortably ahead of countries like Germany? What exactly does he propose to do about this reasonably-encouraging outcome??”
The poll with the latest field work is another one of those 20+ leads and another 24 for the Tories, now two in a week.
To be serious, I’m one of those that says ignore silly season polls, give it to end of Party Conference plus one month to look at the polls again.
However, when it comes to your Conference week, your week in the spotlight, polls are used by media to put the pressure on. Last year Labour were under pressure eve of their conference, Opinium only putting Labour 4 ahead of Tories and Truss ahead of Starmer.
We could be two Conservative conferences away from a General Election, polling could cast a defeatist gloom over those conferences. Polling in conjunction with conference spotlight, can help voters make their minds up. Those sort of voters (and newspaper owners) who always vote for the winners.
And there is a theory this is UK-specific. I’m sorry to rain on your Britain-hating parade
It does mean all that “slowest to recover from the pandemic”, “weakest in the G7” stuff was, in fact, nonsense. Which is a fair chunk of Labour’s narrative
Leon, this is my day job, I won't lecture you on rooftop cocktail bars, don't try to explain economics to me. And leave off the tiresome 'Britain-hating' BS. If I hated Britain I'd be fucking delighted with Brexit, believe me.
He presided over a party wherein anti semitism was tolerated and, if you squinted, encouraged. He happily conflated anti-Israelism with anti(-British Labour Party MP)-Jewism.
And he did that, Nick, because the Jews have moved very far from their downtrodden origins whereby it was proper socialism to go and work on a kibutz and champion them, and now it turns out that they (often bankers, witness "the mural") now run the world.
Fact is this does destroy a central thrust of Labour’s narrative. But I’m sure they can find other ones. The government is still undeniably useless, even if our economy is doing slightly but pleasingly better better than we thought
Alternatively, safe, short termist, protest votes, knowing you don’t have to make your mind up about PM or party of government.
By elections and GE day are two completely different things.
The day is young, Liverpool knew this was coming, and can get someone in, and will take that amount of money before the end of next week.
Liverpool always do their work under the media radar.
- The first graph measures percentage of Swedes exposed (to sexual offences?). It measures the amount.
- The second graph measures movement into Sweden, although because he omitted the y-axis [facepalm] I don't know if it's a %age or absolute value. Regardless, it measures the change in the absolute number of immigrants (a delta), not the absolute value. It measures the change in the amount.
Leon mistook the second graph as measuring the amount and inferred a correlation between the amount of immigrants and the amount of exposure:Will demonstrate with old seats, as those are the ones for which EC have ordered regional seats, but similar will apply to new seats.
Labour predicted to gain Huntingdon. Sounds unlikely:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Huntingdon
But that gain is made with no squeeze on LD voting. Imagine if there were an LD squeeze (as LD not targeting) and post Beds Mid Labour seemed a more natural vote there to ditch the Tories.It becomes easier.
I'd also note the Conservatives had a reasonable record in by-elections from 1982 - they gained Mitcham & Morden and, although they lost Birmingham Northfield, the swing to Labour was under 1% (it was an ultra-marginal).
They didn't have a dreadful record immediately before the 1987 election either. Ryedale was a shocker (and I agree a very poor indicator of the election to come) but they narrowly held off the Liberals in West Derbyshire and the swing to gain Fulham for Labour was quite modest.
I do take your point that you're not going to see the sort of monster swings of getting on for 30% that you saw in recent Lib Dem by-election gains at a General Election (nor indeed the very big Selby swing to Labour). But you do need to appreciate these are substantially bigger than the swings of the Thatcher era. Effectively saying "well, Maggie lost some by-elections, so what?" overlooks the extent to which these are a warning.
Basingstoke and Worthing voters may not be so aware and a Labour Mid Beds win may stem some LD leakage there, if Labour have demonstrated their contendership:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Worthing West
If the Matrix came true and everybody was in pods, but the GDP of Zion went up, you'd be happy. If we imported slaves to do menial work and GDP went up, you'd be happy. If Daleks invaded and created Robomen to work and GDP went up, you'd be happy. If Nazi Germany invaded and literally enslaved the population and GDP went up, you'd be happy.
GDP measures the size of an economy. It does not measure the benefits to its people or even where the benefits are going. The Americans found out in Afghanistan that it's an inadequate metric but we are still nailed to it like it's meaningful.
People are turning against the Tories because of microeconomic data.
Revisions in macroeconomics, GDP growth etc, mean absolutely nothing to people who are pissed off as their taxes are going up, their prices are going up and their take home pay is not going up accordingly.
The fact that Sunak changing taxes to introduce fiscal drag is a large part of the reason why people's take home pay isn't keeping up with inflation doesn't help matters. Though many people won't even realise that, all they'll realise is their take home pay can't keep up with expenditure it could in the past.
"Are you better off than you were five years ago" is a cardinal rule of politics. Even if GDP data is looking healthy, if people's personal response to that is "no", then that's not good for a government looking for votes.
So I'm with BartholomewRoberts in being skeptical to destroys the anti Tory narrative.
When we were and then were not technically in recession in the Cameron years after revisions it didn't really change things. When doomsayers said we were screwed in 2019 the public didn't buy it. They do now.
Read my comments. I actually say upthread “the government is still useless” - which it is. Worn out, clueless, lacking cullions. Time for them to go
Moreover it’s not that surprising our GDP is rising - given the vast scale of net migration
Nonetheless the stat is a pleasing upnote to counter the endless negativity
To begin with, it's done by surveys, and only a small sample of firms and individuals are questioned. Secondly, a large and growing proportion of those surveyed don't actually return their forms. Thirdly, in times of great change, when you need economic data the most, your survey sample becomes out of data pretty quickly. Fourthly, there are actually three measures of GDP (income, output and expenditure), which should tally exactly, but in practice don't. Fifthly, we're measuring real, not nominal GDP, so once you get the survey results you still have to deflate them, which means you need to use inflation stats, which have plenty of issues of their own. Sixth, there's a big black economy, which complicates collection in various ways. Seven, the treatment of inventories, where goods are produced but not consumed, is another world of pain (and of inconsistency between countries). Etc. etc. etc.
The IMF have a good moan about all these issues and more here, in the unlikely event that people want to find out more:
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/qna/pdf/2017/chapter3.pdf
Only from the PB Tories.
Only on PB.
True, but only briefly and only in one place, but it touched a nerve.
"Last time, the tories let schools and hospitals crumble so badly they had to close" (or words to that effect) will be being used by Otherlot politicians well into the 2040s.
Is printing too much money the real cause of inflation?"
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/is-printing-too-much-money-the-real-cause-of-inflation/
Going well this for the tories isn't it?
(*In the interests of being fair, this is still really an August poll. Fieldwork completed yesterday)
Even the Mail thinks we're now a 'third world' country.
The kind of places where the margaritas are sweeter than cough medicine....
I watched society collapse at Stansted Airport
We’ve lost hope in the face of institutional incompetence"
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/i-watched-society-collapse-at-stanstead-airport/
That is all.
Serious question. It's not all about the media, but if they really turn against, as they did in 1978/9 and 1996/7, then it becomes a miserable exercise to try and continue governing.
Quantitative tightening has to happen on a grand scale at some point, and it will be pretty horrible when it happens.
If seats like Mid Beds are in play in a GE then the Tories are buried and nobody need worry who to vote for in seats where the contender is in doubt, as whichever comes out on top will beat the Tories in most cases anyway
"I watched society collapse at Stansted Airport" => I was delayed at the airport
The PB Tories never learn
https://www.eurointelligence.com/
(Second story down)
"The Remain campaign in 2016 was premised on the notion that the UK had a great deal by not being part of the euro and Schengen. You won't be able to do this again. We will need to convince the electorate of the benefits of the entire acquis communautaire of the EU.
Good luck with this. The reason why we think this won't happen is not the British electorate. It is the fact that the EU supporters in the UK are mostly delusional about the EU."
More seriously, does no-one have travel insurance any more? If the flight’s delayed, get a taxi to an hotel and sort things out from there. I was delayed overnight last week, thankfully on a decent airline - and if they hadn’t done just that for us, we’d have done it ourselves.
the world’s best new hotels (and some old ones)
Cons have known about this for years, and specifically were warned this June.
Liverpool have been Ittihad ☺️
Polishes nails!
Would quite like to visit the beach at Barra.
To an extent, that's fine- you want the specs to be cautious. But it all needed replacing (maybe with fresh RAAC) a while back.
But I'd be a bit realistic here if you're thinking seat betting in due course.
A 16.5% swing is a very big swing even in a landslide election (if it turns out to be that) and requires a special effort on the ground. Maybe Labour will find a galvanising candidate to go at it, but in the most recent 2022 local elections it was Tories 22 (-8), Indies 15 (+4), Lib Dems 10 (+4) Labour 4 (unchanged), Green 1 (+1). The Council is now a Lib Dem led coalition and Labour vote across the borough was down from 2018 at around 12%. The sole local by-election since was a Lib Dem gain from Conservative.
That just doesn't scream of being an area where the best bet to beat the Conservatives is so obvious that the Lib Dems will collapse, nor one where Labour are sufficiently organised and motivated to run a Rolls Royce campaign. So will it be at the very top end of Labour stretch targets that surprisingly go? I'd think not, regardless of what a pretty basic swingometer website says.
Luton is now really efficient and useful if you live in north London. Don’t expect oyster bars but it does the job
The airport on Foula is brilliant and has zero queues, or indeed buildings, because it is simply a grass strip next to plunging cliffs on the most remote island in the UK
Newquay is fun
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_League