This RAAC thing seems like a nightmare. I expect schools are just the tip of the iceberg, googling it seems social housing built in the 50s - 80s might be affected too, possibly some hospitals and a smattering of private buildings too ? Probably some asbestos nearby too...
Looks like the building equivalent of an aero bar.
I’m sure the government will get the problem fixed quickly, as they did with issues around unsafe fire cladding on tower blocks.
If Gove hadn't scrapped the school rebuilding programme in 2010 some of the crumbling buildings would probably already have been replaced. Once again the Tories preside over a degenerating public realm and deteriorating public services. Some of us have been raising this issue for a while, incidentally, but all PB Tories want to talk about in the sphere of education is how Labour will make their school fees go up.
Was a bit disappointed at that article. It didn’t give a lot of extra info to what we already knew. At some point, probably after the Tories lose power, we’ll hear all the glorious, cringeworthy detail of how everything crumbled. Sadly this article wasn’t it.
But at the same time, it's still incredible to see it all written down in one place.
And a useful corrective to the "if only she had kept buggering on, it would have been fine" tendency. She was a dead PM walking from pretty early on.
It's a vivid example of what happens when people are totally out of their depth: failed attempts to make things stick, to get the message over; an increasing need to put out fires and react rather than act; finally, hiding away, hoping everything will somehow be all right.
I've seen it a number of times with others in work situations and, being honest, I've been there myself many years ago when put in a role I was unsuited for and had no hope of delivering. It's not nice.
And the worst of it...
Even if you agree with the Truss diagnosis and prescription, the disaster of that six weeks has made it less likely that that approach will be tried in the future.
Cue a thousand Remoaner think pieces about Germany, Italy and France as the “sick men of Europe”, as brave Brexit Britain forges ahead
Or not. Of course.
Just think of all the absolute BS published in the Economist, FT, Guardian and so on over the last few years, not to mention all the nonsense from think tanks and "charities" and regurgitated by leftie politicians and their simple-minded followers. Incredible really.
They need to do what the BoE has done and get a bunch of outsiders in to come and troubleshoot why everything is so fucked up. Once again, it turns out that had the correct data been given earlier the BoE would have had significant room to raise rates faster and earlier to bring inflation down much earlier.
These fuck ups have got real world consequences despite people suggesting they haven't and it's all just nonsense statistics.
Probably not with a metric as totemic as GDP but I think the option of not measuring something is often underrated.
In reality central bankers understand very well the shortcomings of early vintage national account data and don't put a huge amount of weight on it in forming their judgements (the BOE actually have a method for adjusting what they see as a persistent downwards bias in the most recent ONS numbers). This does not of course mean they get their judgements right, I've been tearing my hair out over the BOE's ineptitude, but I wouldn't blame the GDP data for that.
No I'm sorry that's not right. This is revising 2021 data, not the preliminary quarterly result or monthly index. The 2021 quarterly GDP data will have fed directly into the BoE forecast model for 2023 growth unadulterated. Had this data been correct from the off as it should have been then the BoE model would have shown a lot more spare capacity to absorb interest rate rises in 2022 than was thought to be the case. The BoE fucked up, there's no doubt about it, it's also the case that the ONS fucked up and we didn't raise interest rates anywhere near quickly and early enough.
On your earlier point of the US also having seeming contrasting metrics, that's a function of GDI and GDP being different things that aren't necessarily supposed to reconcile but will correlate to each other over the time series. We have two measures of chained volume GDP which show different YoY tracking and both had the most up to date revisions data. The reason they don't reconcile is that they are produced by different teams and use different methodology to gather the data. At least that's the answer we got when we asked the ONS for an explanation as to why they were so different.
This RAAC thing seems like a nightmare. I expect schools are just the tip of the iceberg, googling it seems social housing built in the 50s - 80s might be affected too, possibly some hospitals and a smattering of private buildings too ? Probably some asbestos nearby too...
Looks like the building equivalent of an aero bar.
I’m sure the government will get the problem fixed quickly, as they did with issues around unsafe fire cladding on tower blocks.
If Gove hadn't scrapped the school rebuilding programme in 2010 some of the crumbling buildings would probably already have been replaced. Once again the Tories preside over a degenerating public realm and deteriorating public services. Some of us have been raising this issue for a while, incidentally, but all PB Tories want to talk about in the sphere of education is how Labour will make their school fees go up.
Building Schools for the Future was too ambitious. Uncharacteristically for me, perhaps, I think Gove was right to scrap it in the context of 2010.
CCTV monitoring all public spaces: 55% Compulsory ID cards: 54% National fingerprint database: 50% (net +10) National DNA database: 45% (net +4) Communications companies having to retain everyone's data: 16%"
"Tory voters are more likely to support security measures than Lab voters
Compulsory ID cards Con: 65% Lab: 42%
CCTV monitoring all public spaces Con: 65% Lab: 48%
The only reason Sunak would call an election is if he believes a recession is around the corner.
In truth, that remains a decent likelihood as the interest rate rises kick in, but I think there’s a better likelihood that by Autumn 24 inflation will be much lower, interest rates declining, and the economy growing.
Fun to read the Truss piece. I do remember vividly waking up in New York, reading the live feed of the “fiscal statement” on the Guardian and thinking, “OMG, what are they ON?”
The RAAC issues could be huge. It feels like nobody has really got to the bottom of the impact yet, and how many properties it affects.
This could affect (as well as schools) hospitals, homes, infrastructure…. Very worrying.
Already announced by the Welsh government that they have found 2 hospitals with RAAC
I fear the costs of this will run unto many billions
It has the feeling that we could be standing on the edge of something rather troubling here. A little like the asbestos crisis, or the cladding issues after that. If this really is present in a lot of buildings, the remediation costs and the disruption could be huge.
CCTV monitoring all public spaces: 55% Compulsory ID cards: 54% National fingerprint database: 50% (net +10) National DNA database: 45% (net +4) Communications companies having to retain everyone's data: 16%"
"Tory voters are more likely to support security measures than Lab voters
Compulsory ID cards Con: 65% Lab: 42%
CCTV monitoring all public spaces Con: 65% Lab: 48%
The only reason Sunak would call an election is if he believes a recession is around the corner.
In truth, that remains a decent likelihood as the interest rate rises kick in, but I think there’s a better likelihood that by Autumn 24 inflation will be much lower, interest rates declining, and the economy growing.
With the "cost-of-living crisis" uppermost in minds, does a recession really add much on top, unless unemployment increases markedly (which is probably wouldn't with a tight labour market)? After a decade of growth, the news we were in technical recession might be huge, but I don't think it would make much difference, politically, at this point in time.
CCTV monitoring all public spaces: 55% Compulsory ID cards: 54% National fingerprint database: 50% (net +10) National DNA database: 45% (net +4) Communications companies having to retain everyone's data: 16%"
"Tory voters are more likely to support security measures than Lab voters
Compulsory ID cards Con: 65% Lab: 42%
CCTV monitoring all public spaces Con: 65% Lab: 48%
"National fingerprint database": isn't that like banning zombie knives, and claiming hospitals that already exist are "new"?
Same with DNA.
Tories do have a much greater faith in the legal system - and above all legal aid: or don't want to admit that it'sa getting dangerously close to a lottery whether one is found guilty or not, for want of proper legal representation and advice.
CCTV monitoring all public spaces: 55% Compulsory ID cards: 54% National fingerprint database: 50% (net +10) National DNA database: 45% (net +4) Communications companies having to retain everyone's data: 16%"
"Tory voters are more likely to support security measures than Lab voters
Compulsory ID cards Con: 65% Lab: 42%
CCTV monitoring all public spaces Con: 65% Lab: 48%
Cue a thousand Remoaner think pieces about Germany, Italy and France as the “sick men of Europe”, as brave Brexit Britain forges ahead
Or not. Of course.
Just think of all the absolute BS published in the Economist, FT, Guardian and so on over the last few years, not to mention all the nonsense from think tanks and "charities" and regurgitated by leftie politicians and their simple-minded followers. Incredible really.
They need to do what the BoE has done and get a bunch of outsiders in to come and troubleshoot why everything is so fucked up. Once again, it turns out that had the correct data been given earlier the BoE would have had significant room to raise rates faster and earlier to bring inflation down much earlier.
These fuck ups have got real world consequences despite people suggesting they haven't and it's all just nonsense statistics.
Probably not with a metric as totemic as GDP but I think the option of not measuring something is often underrated.
In reality central bankers understand very well the shortcomings of early vintage national account data and don't put a huge amount of weight on it in forming their judgements (the BOE actually have a method for adjusting what they see as a persistent downwards bias in the most recent ONS numbers). This does not of course mean they get their judgements right, I've been tearing my hair out over the BOE's ineptitude, but I wouldn't blame the GDP data for that.
No I'm sorry that's not right. This is revising 2021 data, not the preliminary quarterly result or monthly index. The 2021 quarterly GDP data will have fed directly into the BoE forecast model for 2023 growth unadulterated. Had this data been correct from the off as it should have been then the BoE model would have shown a lot more spare capacity to absorb interest rate rises in 2022 than was thought to be the case. The BoE fucked up, there's no doubt about it, it's also the case that the ONS fucked up and we didn't raise interest rates anywhere near quickly and early enough.
On your earlier point of the US also having seeming contrasting metrics, that's a function of GDI and GDP being different things that aren't necessarily supposed to reconcile but will correlate to each other over the time series. We have two measures of chained volume GDP which show different YoY tracking and both had the most up to date revisions data. The reason they don't reconcile is that they are produced by different teams and use different methodology to gather the data. At least that's the answer we got when we asked the ONS for an explanation as to why they were so different.
GDP and GDI are absolutely meant to measure the same thing. You can derive measures of national income by looking at income, expenditure or output and they are all meant to give you the same number, but they don't because they employ different methodologies. One way to avoid confusion is to give them different names, like the BEA does, but that doesn't alter the fact that they are meant to capture the same thing. The BOE absolutely does not take the ONS GDP data at face value, take a look at the latest Monetary Policy Report, you will note that their fan charts for inflation and unemployment treat historical data as fact while for GDP they put uncertainty bands around the historical data reflecting the likelihood of revision. CPI data are never revised, while revisions to labour market data are typically minor. The BOE's assessment of slack in the economy comes much more from looking at slack in the labour market and spare capacity within firms than from the GDP data, as a result. For sure the BOE would prefer more reliable GDP data and the big revisions don't help but they know the data aren't reliable and that's why they rely more on other data to inform their view on slack and what that means for inflation. In my opinion their mistake has been to ignore how the experience of high inflation has changed price and wage setting behaviour and inflation psychology, leading to more persistent wage and services inflation, so that previous relationships no longer hold. This is an argument I've made in conversations with MPC members, and I'm sure others have, and I think they have started to get it, albeit too late.
RAAC remediation has to happen but it’s pure bad luck this is happening on Rishi’s watch.
The truth is, nobody has yet died from a collapsed school, and nor is that at all likely.
Maybe… the problem is that in situations like this, these things don’t become critical until - they are.
Take Grenfell, for instance. Horrific tragedy. Would all the implications re that cladding have happened in recent years if that hadn’t occurred? Eventually something horrible would have happened, or someone would have stood up and the message would have filtered through that it wasn’t safe… but would it have happened so quickly otherwise?
CCTV monitoring all public spaces: 55% Compulsory ID cards: 54% National fingerprint database: 50% (net +10) National DNA database: 45% (net +4) Communications companies having to retain everyone's data: 16%"
"Tory voters are more likely to support security measures than Lab voters
Compulsory ID cards Con: 65% Lab: 42%
CCTV monitoring all public spaces Con: 65% Lab: 48%
CCTV monitoring all public spaces: 55% Compulsory ID cards: 54% National fingerprint database: 50% (net +10) National DNA database: 45% (net +4) Communications companies having to retain everyone's data: 16%"
"Tory voters are more likely to support security measures than Lab voters
Compulsory ID cards Con: 65% Lab: 42%
CCTV monitoring all public spaces Con: 65% Lab: 48%
"National fingerprint database": isn't that like banning zombie knives, and claiming hospitals that already exist are "new"?
Same with DNA.
Tories do have a much greater faith in the legal system - and above all legal aid: or don't want to admit that it'sa getting dangerously close to a lottery whether one is found guilty or not, for want of proper legal representation and advice.
Bunch of slackers.
Real statists want eyeball trackers and implanted explosive devices. So the government can kill you at the touch of button, because lols.
Fun to read the Truss piece. I do remember vividly waking up in New York, reading the live feed of the “fiscal statement” on the Guardian and thinking, “OMG, what are they ON?”
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Cue a thousand Remoaner think pieces about Germany, Italy and France as the “sick men of Europe”, as brave Brexit Britain forges ahead
Or not. Of course.
Just think of all the absolute BS published in the Economist, FT, Guardian and so on over the last few years, not to mention all the nonsense from think tanks and "charities" and regurgitated by leftie politicians and their simple-minded followers. Incredible really.
They need to do what the BoE has done and get a bunch of outsiders in to come and troubleshoot why everything is so fucked up. Once again, it turns out that had the correct data been given earlier the BoE would have had significant room to raise rates faster and earlier to bring inflation down much earlier.
These fuck ups have got real world consequences despite people suggesting they haven't and it's all just nonsense statistics.
Probably not with a metric as totemic as GDP but I think the option of not measuring something is often underrated.
In reality central bankers understand very well the shortcomings of early vintage national account data and don't put a huge amount of weight on it in forming their judgements (the BOE actually have a method for adjusting what they see as a persistent downwards bias in the most recent ONS numbers). This does not of course mean they get their judgements right, I've been tearing my hair out over the BOE's ineptitude, but I wouldn't blame the GDP data for that.
No I'm sorry that's not right. This is revising 2021 data, not the preliminary quarterly result or monthly index. The 2021 quarterly GDP data will have fed directly into the BoE forecast model for 2023 growth unadulterated. Had this data been correct from the off as it should have been then the BoE model would have shown a lot more spare capacity to absorb interest rate rises in 2022 than was thought to be the case. The BoE fucked up, there's no doubt about it, it's also the case that the ONS fucked up and we didn't raise interest rates anywhere near quickly and early enough.
On your earlier point of the US also having seeming contrasting metrics, that's a function of GDI and GDP being different things that aren't necessarily supposed to reconcile but will correlate to each other over the time series. We have two measures of chained volume GDP which show different YoY tracking and both had the most up to date revisions data. The reason they don't reconcile is that they are produced by different teams and use different methodology to gather the data. At least that's the answer we got when we asked the ONS for an explanation as to why they were so different.
GDP and GDI are absolutely meant to measure the same thing. You can derive measures of national income by looking at income, expenditure or output and they are all meant to give you the same number, but they don't because they employ different methodologies. One way to avoid confusion is to give them different names, like the BEA does, but that doesn't alter the fact that they are meant to capture the same thing. The BOE absolutely does not take the ONS GDP data at face value, take a look at the latest Monetary Policy Report, you will note that their fan charts for inflation and unemployment treat historical data as fact while for GDP they put uncertainty bands around the historical data reflecting the likelihood of revision. CPI data are never revised, while revisions to labour market data are typically minor. The BOE's assessment of slack in the economy comes much more from looking at slack in the labour market and spare capacity within firms than from the GDP data, as a result. For sure the BOE would prefer more reliable GDP data and the big revisions don't help but they know the data aren't reliable and that's why they rely more on other data to inform their view on slack and what that means for inflation. In my opinion their mistake has been to ignore how the experience of high inflation has changed price and wage setting behaviour and inflation psychology, leading to more persistent wage and services inflation, so that previous relationships no longer hold. This is an argument I've made in conversations with MPC members, and I'm sure others have, and I think they have started to get it, albeit too late.
I apologise in advance if I am misunderstanding you but surely wage and price inflation have nothing to do with this revision as this is for a period long before these started to take off.
RAAC remediation has to happen but it’s pure bad luck this is happening on Rishi’s watch.
The truth is, nobody has yet died from a collapsed school, and nor is that at all likely.
It depends on the failure mode, is what I want to know. If it fails by suddenly cracking, as in 'brittle', as opposed to distorting and bending and visibly cracking but with slow propagation, as in 'tough', then there is a real problem. The failure of a beam despite being reportedly inspected is a real worry. IANAE so can't judge what % of the current panic is soundly based (and all the more so for being neglected, both specifically and in the more general sense that rebuilding sooner would have eliminated the problem anyway).
Incidentally, as we're talking about aging buildings, some details have been released about the Miami condo collapse in 2021.
And it's not good. The building not only did not meet modern building codes, but also the building codes in place when it was designed. It had also been incorrectly constructed in some critical areas.
"Bell told the committee that the design of the deck slab fell “well short” of the applicable building code and that from the beginning the original structural design for the pool deck slab provided “low margins of safety”.
A second factor that the team is exploring is the improper replacement of the steel reinforcement in the pool deck slab during original construction, which was placed lower in the pool deck slab than was required by the design documents.
A third factor that reduced the margins of failure in the slab involved heavy materials that were added to the pool deck, such as planters, and the loading of the slab deck at the time of failure.
A fourth factor is the additional added weight to the pool slab. During a renovation of the pool deck almost 23cm of sand in a setting bed was added on top of the slab.
A fifth factor is the deterioration of the reinforcing steel in the pool deck. When examined, this exhibited corrosion to various degrees ranging from minor corrosion to spots where the corrosion is more pronounced."
RAAC remediation has to happen but it’s pure bad luck this is happening on Rishi’s watch.
The truth is, nobody has yet died from a collapsed school, and nor is that at all likely.
It depends on the failure mode, is what I want to know. If it fails by suddenly cracking, as in 'brittle', as opposed to distorting and bending and visibly cracking but with slow propagation, as in 'tough', then there is a real problem. The failure of a beam despite being reportedly inspected is a real worry. IANAE so can't judge what % of the current panic is soundly based (and all the more so for being neglected, both specifically and in the more general sense that rebuilding sooner would have eliminated the problem anyway).
Concrete is a brilliant but evil material. This stuff apparently usually has no reinforcing in it, which means I'd expect it to fail in a brittle manner, although a government document from a couple of years ago telling schools what to look for showed images of panels that were displaced/deflected.
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
My view is, over the year Sunak’ credibility has fallen apart in voters eyes. Slipping further behind Starmer in best PM recently is related to who voters feel will deliver on promises.
It’s not what you are promising, or your policies, it’s wether you are believed you can deliver on them. A key moment, ironically when we had peak Sunak earlier in the year, wise old Conservative heads were shaking when they sensed he was “overpromising” on some policy.
It’s reached the point of a glass ceiling for the Tories under Sunak, likely not in the 30s. Sunak is now dragging the Tory poll rating further down.
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
My view is, over the year Sunak’ credibility has fallen apart in voters eyes. Slipping further behind Starmer in best PM recently is related to who voters feel will deliver on promises.
It’s not what you are promising, or your policies, it’s wether you are believed you can deliver on them. A key moment, ironically when we had peak Sunak earlier in the year, wise old Conservative heads were shaking when they sensed he was “overpromising” on some policy.
It’s reached the point of a glass ceiling for the Tories under Sunak, likely not in the 30s. Sunak is now dragging the Tory poll rating further down.
Yes, the public have taken a look at Sunak and realised he’s totally shit.
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
Certainly, everybody you encounter seems to agree with you.
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
Certainly, everybody you encounter seems to agree with you.
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
Certainly, everybody you encounter seems to agree with you.
Who are “We Think”. Never heard of them.
There seem to be all sorts of new polling outlets cropping up.
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
My view is, over the year Sunak’ credibility has fallen apart in voters eyes. Slipping further behind Starmer in best PM recently is related to who voters feel will deliver on promises.
It’s not what you are promising, or your policies, it’s wether you are believed you can deliver on them. A key moment, ironically when we had peak Sunak earlier in the year, wise old Conservative heads were shaking when they sensed he was “overpromising” on some policy.
It’s reached the point of a glass ceiling for the Tories under Sunak, likely not in the 30s. Sunak is now dragging the Tory poll rating further down.
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
My view is, over the year Sunak’ credibility has fallen apart in voters eyes. Slipping further behind Starmer in best PM recently is related to who voters feel will deliver on promises.
It’s not what you are promising, or your policies, it’s wether you are believed you can deliver on them. A key moment, ironically when we had peak Sunak earlier in the year, wise old Conservative heads were shaking when they sensed he was “overpromising” on some policy.
It’s reached the point of a glass ceiling for the Tories under Sunak, likely not in the 30s. Sunak is now dragging the Tory poll rating further down.
I think people probably gave Rishi a fair hearing for his first few months, to see if he was offering better government and solutions.
As it has now transpired that the government is still in a mess, and Rishi has very little in the way of solutions, people have now just shrugged their shoulders and moved on from the Tories.
A lot of this isn’t just Sunak’s fault - he has a lot of rotten figures and abject failures at the top of the Tory Party to work with - but he isn’t up to saving them. Very few people would be, given the state of the rot.
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
My view is, over the year Sunak’ credibility has fallen apart in voters eyes. Slipping further behind Starmer in best PM recently is related to who voters feel will deliver on promises.
It’s not what you are promising, or your policies, it’s wether you are believed you can deliver on them. A key moment, ironically when we had peak Sunak earlier in the year, wise old Conservative heads were shaking when they sensed he was “overpromising” on some policy.
It’s reached the point of a glass ceiling for the Tories under Sunak, likely not in the 30s. Sunak is now dragging the Tory poll rating further down.
Yes, the public have taken a look at Sunak and realised he’s totally shit.
Incidentally, as we're talking about aging buildings, some details have been released about the Miami condo collapse in 2021.
And it's not good. The building not only did not meet modern building codes, but also the building codes in place when it was designed. It had also been incorrectly constructed in some critical areas.
"Bell told the committee that the design of the deck slab fell “well short” of the applicable building code and that from the beginning the original structural design for the pool deck slab provided “low margins of safety”.
A second factor that the team is exploring is the improper replacement of the steel reinforcement in the pool deck slab during original construction, which was placed lower in the pool deck slab than was required by the design documents.
A third factor that reduced the margins of failure in the slab involved heavy materials that were added to the pool deck, such as planters, and the loading of the slab deck at the time of failure.
A fourth factor is the additional added weight to the pool slab. During a renovation of the pool deck almost 23cm of sand in a setting bed was added on top of the slab.
A fifth factor is the deterioration of the reinforcing steel in the pool deck. When examined, this exhibited corrosion to various degrees ranging from minor corrosion to spots where the corrosion is more pronounced."
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
My view is, over the year Sunak’ credibility has fallen apart in voters eyes. Slipping further behind Starmer in best PM recently is related to who voters feel will deliver on promises.
It’s not what you are promising, or your policies, it’s wether you are believed you can deliver on them. A key moment, ironically when we had peak Sunak earlier in the year, wise old Conservative heads were shaking when they sensed he was “overpromising” on some policy.
It’s reached the point of a glass ceiling for the Tories under Sunak, likely not in the 30s. Sunak is now dragging the Tory poll rating further down.
Yes, the public have taken a look at Sunak and realised he’s totally shit.
Tory Party Unpopularity + a Popular Primeminister in Sunak = 29-34% at General Election.
Tory Party Unpopularity + a Sunak as bad as this = 28-24% at General Election.
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
Certainly, everybody you encounter seems to agree with you.
Who are “We Think”. Never heard of them.
New name for Omnisis, I think.
But the main thing is that we've had another week where the polls haven't moved in the Conservatives' favour.
And Major's 31 percent is still an aspirational target.
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
My view is, over the year Sunak’ credibility has fallen apart in voters eyes. Slipping further behind Starmer in best PM recently is related to who voters feel will deliver on promises.
It’s not what you are promising, or your policies, it’s wether you are believed you can deliver on them. A key moment, ironically when we had peak Sunak earlier in the year, wise old Conservative heads were shaking when they sensed he was “overpromising” on some policy.
It’s reached the point of a glass ceiling for the Tories under Sunak, likely not in the 30s. Sunak is now dragging the Tory poll rating further down.
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
My view is, over the year Sunak’ credibility has fallen apart in voters eyes. Slipping further behind Starmer in best PM recently is related to who voters feel will deliver on promises.
It’s not what you are promising, or your policies, it’s wether you are believed you can deliver on them. A key moment, ironically when we had peak Sunak earlier in the year, wise old Conservative heads were shaking when they sensed he was “overpromising” on some policy.
It’s reached the point of a glass ceiling for the Tories under Sunak, likely not in the 30s. Sunak is now dragging the Tory poll rating further down.
I think people probably gave Rishi a fair hearing for his first few months, to see if he was offering better government and solutions.
As it has now transpired that the government is still in a mess, and Rishi has very little in the way of solutions, people have now just shrugged their shoulders and moved on from the Tories.
A lot of this isn’t just Sunak’s fault - he has a lot of rotten figures and abject failures at the top of the Tory Party to work with - but he isn’t up to saving them. Very few people would be, given the state of the rot.
You are too kind on Sunak. He’s been a fully paid up enthusiast for the current disaster, and indeed was Chancellor for a goodly period.
He’ll leave precisely zero legacy. Less than Theresa May’s.
Fun to read the Truss piece. I do remember vividly waking up in New York, reading the live feed of the “fiscal statement” on the Guardian and thinking, “OMG, what are they ON?”
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
My view is, over the year Sunak’ credibility has fallen apart in voters eyes. Slipping further behind Starmer in best PM recently is related to who voters feel will deliver on promises.
It’s not what you are promising, or your policies, it’s wether you are believed you can deliver on them. A key moment, ironically when we had peak Sunak earlier in the year, wise old Conservative heads were shaking when they sensed he was “overpromising” on some policy.
It’s reached the point of a glass ceiling for the Tories under Sunak, likely not in the 30s. Sunak is now dragging the Tory poll rating further down.
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
My view is, over the year Sunak’ credibility has fallen apart in voters eyes. Slipping further behind Starmer in best PM recently is related to who voters feel will deliver on promises.
It’s not what you are promising, or your policies, it’s wether you are believed you can deliver on them. A key moment, ironically when we had peak Sunak earlier in the year, wise old Conservative heads were shaking when they sensed he was “overpromising” on some policy.
It’s reached the point of a glass ceiling for the Tories under Sunak, likely not in the 30s. Sunak is now dragging the Tory poll rating further down.
I think people probably gave Rishi a fair hearing for his first few months, to see if he was offering better government and solutions.
As it has now transpired that the government is still in a mess, and Rishi has very little in the way of solutions, people have now just shrugged their shoulders and moved on from the Tories.
A lot of this isn’t just Sunak’s fault - he has a lot of rotten figures and abject failures at the top of the Tory Party to work with - but he isn’t up to saving them. Very few people would be, given the state of the rot.
He is an improvement. Unlike Truss, he's not trying to torch everything. Unlike Johnson, he's neither going to try to seduce anyone's wife or lie about it.
But he's not enough of an improvement. And he does have flaws of his own.
Cue a thousand Remoaner think pieces about Germany, Italy and France as the “sick men of Europe”, as brave Brexit Britain forges ahead
Or not. Of course.
Just think of all the absolute BS published in the Economist, FT, Guardian and so on over the last few years, not to mention all the nonsense from think tanks and "charities" and regurgitated by leftie politicians and their simple-minded followers. Incredible really.
They need to do what the BoE has done and get a bunch of outsiders in to come and troubleshoot why everything is so fucked up. Once again, it turns out that had the correct data been given earlier the BoE would have had significant room to raise rates faster and earlier to bring inflation down much earlier.
These fuck ups have got real world consequences despite people suggesting they haven't and it's all just nonsense statistics.
Probably not with a metric as totemic as GDP but I think the option of not measuring something is often underrated.
In reality central bankers understand very well the shortcomings of early vintage national account data and don't put a huge amount of weight on it in forming their judgements (the BOE actually have a method for adjusting what they see as a persistent downwards bias in the most recent ONS numbers). This does not of course mean they get their judgements right, I've been tearing my hair out over the BOE's ineptitude, but I wouldn't blame the GDP data for that.
No I'm sorry that's not right. This is revising 2021 data, not the preliminary quarterly result or monthly index. The 2021 quarterly GDP data will have fed directly into the BoE forecast model for 2023 growth unadulterated. Had this data been correct from the off as it should have been then the BoE model would have shown a lot more spare capacity to absorb interest rate rises in 2022 than was thought to be the case. The BoE fucked up, there's no doubt about it, it's also the case that the ONS fucked up and we didn't raise interest rates anywhere near quickly and early enough.
On your earlier point of the US also having seeming contrasting metrics, that's a function of GDI and GDP being different things that aren't necessarily supposed to reconcile but will correlate to each other over the time series. We have two measures of chained volume GDP which show different YoY tracking and both had the most up to date revisions data. The reason they don't reconcile is that they are produced by different teams and use different methodology to gather the data. At least that's the answer we got when we asked the ONS for an explanation as to why they were so different.
GDP and GDI are absolutely meant to measure the same thing. You can derive measures of national income by looking at income, expenditure or output and they are all meant to give you the same number, but they don't because they employ different methodologies. One way to avoid confusion is to give them different names, like the BEA does, but that doesn't alter the fact that they are meant to capture the same thing. The BOE absolutely does not take the ONS GDP data at face value, take a look at the latest Monetary Policy Report, you will note that their fan charts for inflation and unemployment treat historical data as fact while for GDP they put uncertainty bands around the historical data reflecting the likelihood of revision. CPI data are never revised, while revisions to labour market data are typically minor. The BOE's assessment of slack in the economy comes much more from looking at slack in the labour market and spare capacity within firms than from the GDP data, as a result. For sure the BOE would prefer more reliable GDP data and the big revisions don't help but they know the data aren't reliable and that's why they rely more on other data to inform their view on slack and what that means for inflation. In my opinion their mistake has been to ignore how the experience of high inflation has changed price and wage setting behaviour and inflation psychology, leading to more persistent wage and services inflation, so that previous relationships no longer hold. This is an argument I've made in conversations with MPC members, and I'm sure others have, and I think they have started to get it, albeit too late.
I apologise in advance if I am misunderstanding you but surely wage and price inflation have nothing to do with this revision as this is for a period long before these started to take off.
Yes absolutely. I'm talking about the mistakes (in my view) the BOE has made on policy. The ONS GDP revision is I would argue not such a massive deal for the BOE because what matters for them in terms of their inflation forecast is the degree of slack in the economy and for their estimate of that the GDP data aren't that important, precisely because the BOE know they can be revised so much.
That doesn’t sound right. The model is based on the state of the economy before 2016, and the revisions changed the size of the current economy by 1.7%, without adjusting the model. It should be 1.7% closer, surely?
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
My view is, over the year Sunak’ credibility has fallen apart in voters eyes. Slipping further behind Starmer in best PM recently is related to who voters feel will deliver on promises.
It’s not what you are promising, or your policies, it’s wether you are believed you can deliver on them. A key moment, ironically when we had peak Sunak earlier in the year, wise old Conservative heads were shaking when they sensed he was “overpromising” on some policy.
It’s reached the point of a glass ceiling for the Tories under Sunak, likely not in the 30s. Sunak is now dragging the Tory poll rating further down.
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
My view is, over the year Sunak’ credibility has fallen apart in voters eyes. Slipping further behind Starmer in best PM recently is related to who voters feel will deliver on promises.
It’s not what you are promising, or your policies, it’s wether you are believed you can deliver on them. A key moment, ironically when we had peak Sunak earlier in the year, wise old Conservative heads were shaking when they sensed he was “overpromising” on some policy.
It’s reached the point of a glass ceiling for the Tories under Sunak, likely not in the 30s. Sunak is now dragging the Tory poll rating further down.
I think people probably gave Rishi a fair hearing for his first few months, to see if he was offering better government and solutions.
As it has now transpired that the government is still in a mess, and Rishi has very little in the way of solutions, people have now just shrugged their shoulders and moved on from the Tories.
A lot of this isn’t just Sunak’s fault - he has a lot of rotten figures and abject failures at the top of the Tory Party to work with - but he isn’t up to saving them. Very few people would be, given the state of the rot.
You are too kind on Sunak. He’s been a fully paid up enthusiast for the current disaster, and indeed was Chancellor for a goodly period.
He’ll leave precisely zero legacy. Less than Theresa May’s.
I would say that May's stock rises with every day that has passed under her three successors.
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
My view is, over the year Sunak’ credibility has fallen apart in voters eyes. Slipping further behind Starmer in best PM recently is related to who voters feel will deliver on promises.
It’s not what you are promising, or your policies, it’s wether you are believed you can deliver on them. A key moment, ironically when we had peak Sunak earlier in the year, wise old Conservative heads were shaking when they sensed he was “overpromising” on some policy.
It’s reached the point of a glass ceiling for the Tories under Sunak, likely not in the 30s. Sunak is now dragging the Tory poll rating further down.
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
My view is, over the year Sunak’ credibility has fallen apart in voters eyes. Slipping further behind Starmer in best PM recently is related to who voters feel will deliver on promises.
It’s not what you are promising, or your policies, it’s wether you are believed you can deliver on them. A key moment, ironically when we had peak Sunak earlier in the year, wise old Conservative heads were shaking when they sensed he was “overpromising” on some policy.
It’s reached the point of a glass ceiling for the Tories under Sunak, likely not in the 30s. Sunak is now dragging the Tory poll rating further down.
I think people probably gave Rishi a fair hearing for his first few months, to see if he was offering better government and solutions.
As it has now transpired that the government is still in a mess, and Rishi has very little in the way of solutions, people have now just shrugged their shoulders and moved on from the Tories.
A lot of this isn’t just Sunak’s fault - he has a lot of rotten figures and abject failures at the top of the Tory Party to work with - but he isn’t up to saving them. Very few people would be, given the state of the rot.
You are too kind on Sunak. He’s been a fully paid up enthusiast for the current disaster, and indeed was Chancellor for a goodly period.
He’ll leave precisely zero legacy. Less than Theresa May’s.
It’s quite possible that I have been too kind on him. Certainly I can’t give you a single thing he has done in the past year that has been positive, other than “not setting fire to the economy as badly as Truss did”.
RAAC remediation has to happen but it’s pure bad luck this is happening on Rishi’s watch.
The truth is, nobody has yet died from a collapsed school, and nor is that at all likely.
It depends on the failure mode, is what I want to know. If it fails by suddenly cracking, as in 'brittle', as opposed to distorting and bending and visibly cracking but with slow propagation, as in 'tough', then there is a real problem. The failure of a beam despite being reportedly inspected is a real worry. IANAE so can't judge what % of the current panic is soundly based (and all the more so for being neglected, both specifically and in the more general sense that rebuilding sooner would have eliminated the problem anyway).
Concrete is a brilliant but evil material. This stuff apparently usually has no reinforcing in it, which means I'd expect it to fail in a brittle manner, although a government document from a couple of years ago telling schools what to look for showed images of panels that were displaced/deflected.
Excellent, thanks, I hoped you would come up with the goods. Edit: RAAC does have reinforcement in it (*R*AAC) but no idea if it is designed to be continuous between sections.
I see from this it doesn't bond too well to reinforcement - hardly surprisingly presumably, it's like trying to araldite steel to an Aero bar I expect.
"Sight must not be lost of the fact that the 2018 collapse was sudden with very little noticeable warning. This is indicative of shear failure in cementitious materials and can only be protected against by knowing that there is sufficient shear resistance in the material, the reinforcement, or both. In a reminder, the LGA and the DfE stated that the condition of all buildings should be regularly monitored, taking a risk- based approach that gives due deliberation to the use of the building with consideration given to the possible impact of reduced maintenance."
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
My view is, over the year Sunak’ credibility has fallen apart in voters eyes. Slipping further behind Starmer in best PM recently is related to who voters feel will deliver on promises.
It’s not what you are promising, or your policies, it’s wether you are believed you can deliver on them. A key moment, ironically when we had peak Sunak earlier in the year, wise old Conservative heads were shaking when they sensed he was “overpromising” on some policy.
It’s reached the point of a glass ceiling for the Tories under Sunak, likely not in the 30s. Sunak is now dragging the Tory poll rating further down.
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
My view is, over the year Sunak’ credibility has fallen apart in voters eyes. Slipping further behind Starmer in best PM recently is related to who voters feel will deliver on promises.
It’s not what you are promising, or your policies, it’s wether you are believed you can deliver on them. A key moment, ironically when we had peak Sunak earlier in the year, wise old Conservative heads were shaking when they sensed he was “overpromising” on some policy.
It’s reached the point of a glass ceiling for the Tories under Sunak, likely not in the 30s. Sunak is now dragging the Tory poll rating further down.
I think people probably gave Rishi a fair hearing for his first few months, to see if he was offering better government and solutions.
As it has now transpired that the government is still in a mess, and Rishi has very little in the way of solutions, people have now just shrugged their shoulders and moved on from the Tories.
A lot of this isn’t just Sunak’s fault - he has a lot of rotten figures and abject failures at the top of the Tory Party to work with - but he isn’t up to saving them. Very few people would be, given the state of the rot.
That doesn’t sound right. The model is based on the state of the economy before 2016, and the revisions changed the size of the current economy by 1.7%, without adjusting the model. It should be 1.7% closer, surely?
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
My view is, over the year Sunak’ credibility has fallen apart in voters eyes. Slipping further behind Starmer in best PM recently is related to who voters feel will deliver on promises.
It’s not what you are promising, or your policies, it’s wether you are believed you can deliver on them. A key moment, ironically when we had peak Sunak earlier in the year, wise old Conservative heads were shaking when they sensed he was “overpromising” on some policy.
It’s reached the point of a glass ceiling for the Tories under Sunak, likely not in the 30s. Sunak is now dragging the Tory poll rating further down.
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
My view is, over the year Sunak’ credibility has fallen apart in voters eyes. Slipping further behind Starmer in best PM recently is related to who voters feel will deliver on promises.
It’s not what you are promising, or your policies, it’s wether you are believed you can deliver on them. A key moment, ironically when we had peak Sunak earlier in the year, wise old Conservative heads were shaking when they sensed he was “overpromising” on some policy.
It’s reached the point of a glass ceiling for the Tories under Sunak, likely not in the 30s. Sunak is now dragging the Tory poll rating further down.
I think people probably gave Rishi a fair hearing for his first few months, to see if he was offering better government and solutions.
As it has now transpired that the government is still in a mess, and Rishi has very little in the way of solutions, people have now just shrugged their shoulders and moved on from the Tories.
A lot of this isn’t just Sunak’s fault - he has a lot of rotten figures and abject failures at the top of the Tory Party to work with - but he isn’t up to saving them. Very few people would be, given the state of the rot.
No. It was more than a few months, it’s only recently they view Sunak as bad as now, because it takes longer, nearly a year, to work out if someone can deliver on what they say they will.
Mike Smithson keeps hinting Conservatives might change leader with 1 year to go, like they did in 1963, and chewed up Labours big poll lead in those last months, though still lost by a little bit.
If you are still polling 24% 25% and 20+ behind, is there much jeopardy throwing the dice and offering voters a more dynamic and likeable PM, Chancellor and Home Secretary in build up to election?
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
My view is, over the year Sunak’ credibility has fallen apart in voters eyes. Slipping further behind Starmer in best PM recently is related to who voters feel will deliver on promises.
It’s not what you are promising, or your policies, it’s wether you are believed you can deliver on them. A key moment, ironically when we had peak Sunak earlier in the year, wise old Conservative heads were shaking when they sensed he was “overpromising” on some policy.
It’s reached the point of a glass ceiling for the Tories under Sunak, likely not in the 30s. Sunak is now dragging the Tory poll rating further down.
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
My view is, over the year Sunak’ credibility has fallen apart in voters eyes. Slipping further behind Starmer in best PM recently is related to who voters feel will deliver on promises.
It’s not what you are promising, or your policies, it’s wether you are believed you can deliver on them. A key moment, ironically when we had peak Sunak earlier in the year, wise old Conservative heads were shaking when they sensed he was “overpromising” on some policy.
It’s reached the point of a glass ceiling for the Tories under Sunak, likely not in the 30s. Sunak is now dragging the Tory poll rating further down.
I think people probably gave Rishi a fair hearing for his first few months, to see if he was offering better government and solutions.
As it has now transpired that the government is still in a mess, and Rishi has very little in the way of solutions, people have now just shrugged their shoulders and moved on from the Tories.
A lot of this isn’t just Sunak’s fault - he has a lot of rotten figures and abject failures at the top of the Tory Party to work with - but he isn’t up to saving them. Very few people would be, given the state of the rot.
A lot of it is his fault though. A large proportion of his cabinet appointments were simply ludicrous and done out of sheer cowardice. Swella, etc.
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
My view is, over the year Sunak’ credibility has fallen apart in voters eyes. Slipping further behind Starmer in best PM recently is related to who voters feel will deliver on promises.
It’s not what you are promising, or your policies, it’s wether you are believed you can deliver on them. A key moment, ironically when we had peak Sunak earlier in the year, wise old Conservative heads were shaking when they sensed he was “overpromising” on some policy.
It’s reached the point of a glass ceiling for the Tories under Sunak, likely not in the 30s. Sunak is now dragging the Tory poll rating further down.
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
My view is, over the year Sunak’ credibility has fallen apart in voters eyes. Slipping further behind Starmer in best PM recently is related to who voters feel will deliver on promises.
It’s not what you are promising, or your policies, it’s wether you are believed you can deliver on them. A key moment, ironically when we had peak Sunak earlier in the year, wise old Conservative heads were shaking when they sensed he was “overpromising” on some policy.
It’s reached the point of a glass ceiling for the Tories under Sunak, likely not in the 30s. Sunak is now dragging the Tory poll rating further down.
I think people probably gave Rishi a fair hearing for his first few months, to see if he was offering better government and solutions.
As it has now transpired that the government is still in a mess, and Rishi has very little in the way of solutions, people have now just shrugged their shoulders and moved on from the Tories.
A lot of this isn’t just Sunak’s fault - he has a lot of rotten figures and abject failures at the top of the Tory Party to work with - but he isn’t up to saving them. Very few people would be, given the state of the rot.
You are too kind on Sunak. He’s been a fully paid up enthusiast for the current disaster, and indeed was Chancellor for a goodly period.
He’ll leave precisely zero legacy. Less than Theresa May’s.
I would say that May's stock rises with every day that has passed under her three successors.
There are some PMs to whom history will be kind even if people at the time weren’t. Everyone looks back quite kindly on John Major now despite the common impression for much of the nineties and noughties being that he was a complete disaster.
Blair will be forever tainted by Iraq. Brown will probably be seen as well meaning but not particularly successful (in a similar vein to May, I suspect). I very much doubt that Truss or Johnson will get good write ups.
That doesn’t sound right. The model is based on the state of the economy before 2016, and the revisions changed the size of the current economy by 1.7%, without adjusting the model. It should be 1.7% closer, surely?
His original estimate was based on an even earlier data vintage that was only a bit worse than the latest numbers. In between these two estimates was another vintage of data that were weaker. What we have seen today has revised away that previous downwards revision while adding a bit on top. Hence the net effect on his Brexit doppelganger estimate is to reduce the negative impact from 5.5% of GDP to 5.0% as of Q2 last year.
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
My view is, over the year Sunak’ credibility has fallen apart in voters eyes. Slipping further behind Starmer in best PM recently is related to who voters feel will deliver on promises.
It’s not what you are promising, or your policies, it’s wether you are believed you can deliver on them. A key moment, ironically when we had peak Sunak earlier in the year, wise old Conservative heads were shaking when they sensed he was “overpromising” on some policy.
It’s reached the point of a glass ceiling for the Tories under Sunak, likely not in the 30s. Sunak is now dragging the Tory poll rating further down.
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
My view is, over the year Sunak’ credibility has fallen apart in voters eyes. Slipping further behind Starmer in best PM recently is related to who voters feel will deliver on promises.
It’s not what you are promising, or your policies, it’s wether you are believed you can deliver on them. A key moment, ironically when we had peak Sunak earlier in the year, wise old Conservative heads were shaking when they sensed he was “overpromising” on some policy.
It’s reached the point of a glass ceiling for the Tories under Sunak, likely not in the 30s. Sunak is now dragging the Tory poll rating further down.
I think people probably gave Rishi a fair hearing for his first few months, to see if he was offering better government and solutions.
As it has now transpired that the government is still in a mess, and Rishi has very little in the way of solutions, people have now just shrugged their shoulders and moved on from the Tories.
A lot of this isn’t just Sunak’s fault - he has a lot of rotten figures and abject failures at the top of the Tory Party to work with - but he isn’t up to saving them. Very few people would be, given the state of the rot.
You are too kind on Sunak. He’s been a fully paid up enthusiast for the current disaster, and indeed was Chancellor for a goodly period.
He’ll leave precisely zero legacy. Less than Theresa May’s.
Totally, when you compare how May managed the country having been gutted by Covid for two years followed by the effects of the Ukraine war with the added complexities of Brexit she clearly dealt with it better than Sunak.
The way she managed to negotiate with the EU and bring the party with her was magical whereas Sunak flopped with the Windsor agreement and the way he’s positively engaged with EU leaders.
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
My view is, over the year Sunak’ credibility has fallen apart in voters eyes. Slipping further behind Starmer in best PM recently is related to who voters feel will deliver on promises.
It’s not what you are promising, or your policies, it’s wether you are believed you can deliver on them. A key moment, ironically when we had peak Sunak earlier in the year, wise old Conservative heads were shaking when they sensed he was “overpromising” on some policy.
It’s reached the point of a glass ceiling for the Tories under Sunak, likely not in the 30s. Sunak is now dragging the Tory poll rating further down.
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
My view is, over the year Sunak’ credibility has fallen apart in voters eyes. Slipping further behind Starmer in best PM recently is related to who voters feel will deliver on promises.
It’s not what you are promising, or your policies, it’s wether you are believed you can deliver on them. A key moment, ironically when we had peak Sunak earlier in the year, wise old Conservative heads were shaking when they sensed he was “overpromising” on some policy.
It’s reached the point of a glass ceiling for the Tories under Sunak, likely not in the 30s. Sunak is now dragging the Tory poll rating further down.
I think people probably gave Rishi a fair hearing for his first few months, to see if he was offering better government and solutions.
As it has now transpired that the government is still in a mess, and Rishi has very little in the way of solutions, people have now just shrugged their shoulders and moved on from the Tories.
A lot of this isn’t just Sunak’s fault - he has a lot of rotten figures and abject failures at the top of the Tory Party to work with - but he isn’t up to saving them. Very few people would be, given the state of the rot.
No. It was more than a few months, it’s only recently they view Sunak as bad as now, because it takes longer, nearly a year, to work out if someone can deliver on what they say they will.
Mike Smithson keeps hinting Conservatives might change leader with 1 year to go, like they did in 1963, and chewed up Labours big poll lead in those last months, though still lost by a little bit.
If you are still polling 24% 25% and 20+ behind, is there much jeopardy throwing the dice and offering voters a more dynamic and likeable PM, Chancellor and Home Secretary in build up to election?
Two flaws.
1 They don't have an attractive set of subs on the bench.
2 If they did, and they could get past the party, what could they actually do in the next twelve months?
Meanwhile, following on from this "Sunak is poor" stuff, who'd win in a Sunak-May mediocrity-off?
Liverpools rivals certainly won’t want them to pick up £150M or even £175M or £200M for 31 year old Mo. Man Utd couldn’t even afford £8M loan fee for Cucurella, and still have enough of the Glaziers money to complete the deal for The Bat today. Liverpool could propel themselves back from the periphery into serious contention, spending that bonus £175 mill over the coming windows.
RAAC remediation has to happen but it’s pure bad luck this is happening on Rishi’s watch.
The truth is, nobody has yet died from a collapsed school, and nor is that at all likely.
It depends on the failure mode, is what I want to know. If it fails by suddenly cracking, as in 'brittle', as opposed to distorting and bending and visibly cracking but with slow propagation, as in 'tough', then there is a real problem. The failure of a beam despite being reportedly inspected is a real worry. IANAE so can't judge what % of the current panic is soundly based (and all the more so for being neglected, both specifically and in the more general sense that rebuilding sooner would have eliminated the problem anyway).
Concrete is a brilliant but evil material. This stuff apparently usually has no reinforcing in it, which means I'd expect it to fail in a brittle manner, although a government document from a couple of years ago telling schools what to look for showed images of panels that were displaced/deflected.
PS Looks as if the reinforcing is a sort of wire mesh. That photo of the cracking in a ceiling panel has a meshlike appearance, suggesting failure along the "emptier" lines of the pattern.
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
My view is, over the year Sunak’ credibility has fallen apart in voters eyes. Slipping further behind Starmer in best PM recently is related to who voters feel will deliver on promises.
It’s not what you are promising, or your policies, it’s wether you are believed you can deliver on them. A key moment, ironically when we had peak Sunak earlier in the year, wise old Conservative heads were shaking when they sensed he was “overpromising” on some policy.
It’s reached the point of a glass ceiling for the Tories under Sunak, likely not in the 30s. Sunak is now dragging the Tory poll rating further down.
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
My view is, over the year Sunak’ credibility has fallen apart in voters eyes. Slipping further behind Starmer in best PM recently is related to who voters feel will deliver on promises.
It’s not what you are promising, or your policies, it’s wether you are believed you can deliver on them. A key moment, ironically when we had peak Sunak earlier in the year, wise old Conservative heads were shaking when they sensed he was “overpromising” on some policy.
It’s reached the point of a glass ceiling for the Tories under Sunak, likely not in the 30s. Sunak is now dragging the Tory poll rating further down.
I think people probably gave Rishi a fair hearing for his first few months, to see if he was offering better government and solutions.
As it has now transpired that the government is still in a mess, and Rishi has very little in the way of solutions, people have now just shrugged their shoulders and moved on from the Tories.
A lot of this isn’t just Sunak’s fault - he has a lot of rotten figures and abject failures at the top of the Tory Party to work with - but he isn’t up to saving them. Very few people would be, given the state of the rot.
No. It was more than a few months, it’s only recently they view Sunak as bad as now, because it takes longer, nearly a year, to work out if someone can deliver on what they say they will.
Mike Smithson keeps hinting Conservatives might change leader with 1 year to go, like they did in 1963, and chewed up Labours big poll lead in those last months, though still lost by a little bit.
If you are still polling 24% 25% and 20+ behind, is there much jeopardy throwing the dice and offering voters a more dynamic and likeable PM, Chancellor and Home Secretary in build up to election?
Go on, who is the more dynamic and likeable senior Tory who can take them into a GE and get a better result?
Don’t get me wrong, there are some Tories I could see as future leaders who might do ok in opposition. Badenoch/Mordaunt being the two I would cite. But as PMs to face an electorate after changing PM three times in the last parliament? I think both have some political talent. I’m not sure they have THAT much.
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
My view is, over the year Sunak’ credibility has fallen apart in voters eyes. Slipping further behind Starmer in best PM recently is related to who voters feel will deliver on promises.
It’s not what you are promising, or your policies, it’s wether you are believed you can deliver on them. A key moment, ironically when we had peak Sunak earlier in the year, wise old Conservative heads were shaking when they sensed he was “overpromising” on some policy.
It’s reached the point of a glass ceiling for the Tories under Sunak, likely not in the 30s. Sunak is now dragging the Tory poll rating further down.
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
My view is, over the year Sunak’ credibility has fallen apart in voters eyes. Slipping further behind Starmer in best PM recently is related to who voters feel will deliver on promises.
It’s not what you are promising, or your policies, it’s wether you are believed you can deliver on them. A key moment, ironically when we had peak Sunak earlier in the year, wise old Conservative heads were shaking when they sensed he was “overpromising” on some policy.
It’s reached the point of a glass ceiling for the Tories under Sunak, likely not in the 30s. Sunak is now dragging the Tory poll rating further down.
I think people probably gave Rishi a fair hearing for his first few months, to see if he was offering better government and solutions.
As it has now transpired that the government is still in a mess, and Rishi has very little in the way of solutions, people have now just shrugged their shoulders and moved on from the Tories.
A lot of this isn’t just Sunak’s fault - he has a lot of rotten figures and abject failures at the top of the Tory Party to work with - but he isn’t up to saving them. Very few people would be, given the state of the rot.
No. It was more than a few months, it’s only recently they view Sunak as bad as now, because it takes longer, nearly a year, to work out if someone can deliver on what they say they will.
Mike Smithson keeps hinting Conservatives might change leader with 1 year to go, like they did in 1963, and chewed up Labours big poll lead in those last months, though still lost by a little bit.
If you are still polling 24% 25% and 20+ behind, is there much jeopardy throwing the dice and offering voters a more dynamic and likeable PM, Chancellor and Home Secretary in build up to election?
Go on, who is the more dynamic and likeable senior Tory who can take them into a GE and get a better result?
Don’t get me wrong, there are some Tories I could see as future leaders who might do ok in opposition. Badenoch/Mordaunt being the two I would cite. But as PMs to face an electorate after changing PM three times in the last parliament? I think both have some political talent. I’m not sure they have THAT much.
It’s an easy answer. Voters will give Penny Mourdant an ear, and take a fresh look at the Tories. Especially if she replaces the Nasty Party image in the cabinet, new aspirational message from Chancellor, a change at Home Secretary to someone not running her own leadership election win over Tory Membership 100% time but delivering on Home Office policy.
I’m not talking about Tory getting majority, but the 1963 change of tone chewed up nearly all Labours poll lead.
That doesn’t sound right. The model is based on the state of the economy before 2016, and the revisions changed the size of the current economy by 1.7%, without adjusting the model. It should be 1.7% closer, surely?
His original estimate was based on an even earlier data vintage that was only a bit worse than the latest numbers. In between these two estimates was another vintage of data that were weaker. What we have seen today has revised away that previous downwards revision while adding a bit on top. Hence the net effect on his Brexit doppelganger estimate is to reduce the negative impact from 5.5% of GDP to 5.0% as of Q2 last year.
What does this bit mean?
The latest Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) information shows that the UK is one of the first countries in the world to estimate the 2020 and 2021 coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic period through the SUT framework. The United States has also published SUTs for 2021.
This means that the UK has one of the most up-to-date sets of estimates for this period of considerable economic change. Other countries follow different revision policies and practices, which can result in their estimates being revised at a later date. It is important this is considered when comparing the UK with other countries and our international comparison position is likely to change once other countries fully confront their datasets over time.
RAAC remediation has to happen but it’s pure bad luck this is happening on Rishi’s watch.
The truth is, nobody has yet died from a collapsed school, and nor is that at all likely.
It depends on the failure mode, is what I want to know. If it fails by suddenly cracking, as in 'brittle', as opposed to distorting and bending and visibly cracking but with slow propagation, as in 'tough', then there is a real problem. The failure of a beam despite being reportedly inspected is a real worry. IANAE so can't judge what % of the current panic is soundly based (and all the more so for being neglected, both specifically and in the more general sense that rebuilding sooner would have eliminated the problem anyway).
Concrete is a brilliant but evil material. This stuff apparently usually has no reinforcing in it, which means I'd expect it to fail in a brittle manner, although a government document from a couple of years ago telling schools what to look for showed images of panels that were displaced/deflected.
PS Looks as if the reinforcing is a sort of wire mesh. That photo of the cracking in a ceiling panel has a meshlike appearance, suggesting failure along the "emptier" lines of the pattern.
One of the schools is apparently in Priti Patel’s constituency. She’s very cross about it!
A constitutional question (I was drunkenly discussing this last night). Suppose a huge swathe of Tory MPs defected to Labour and took the Labour whip, meaning that Sir Keir could now easily control the majority of the House. What would happen? Would Sir Keir simply be made PM in Rishi's place, or would a general election be forced?
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
My view is, over the year Sunak’ credibility has fallen apart in voters eyes. Slipping further behind Starmer in best PM recently is related to who voters feel will deliver on promises.
It’s not what you are promising, or your policies, it’s wether you are believed you can deliver on them. A key moment, ironically when we had peak Sunak earlier in the year, wise old Conservative heads were shaking when they sensed he was “overpromising” on some policy.
It’s reached the point of a glass ceiling for the Tories under Sunak, likely not in the 30s. Sunak is now dragging the Tory poll rating further down.
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
My view is, over the year Sunak’ credibility has fallen apart in voters eyes. Slipping further behind Starmer in best PM recently is related to who voters feel will deliver on promises.
It’s not what you are promising, or your policies, it’s wether you are believed you can deliver on them. A key moment, ironically when we had peak Sunak earlier in the year, wise old Conservative heads were shaking when they sensed he was “overpromising” on some policy.
It’s reached the point of a glass ceiling for the Tories under Sunak, likely not in the 30s. Sunak is now dragging the Tory poll rating further down.
I think people probably gave Rishi a fair hearing for his first few months, to see if he was offering better government and solutions.
As it has now transpired that the government is still in a mess, and Rishi has very little in the way of solutions, people have now just shrugged their shoulders and moved on from the Tories.
A lot of this isn’t just Sunak’s fault - he has a lot of rotten figures and abject failures at the top of the Tory Party to work with - but he isn’t up to saving them. Very few people would be, given the state of the rot.
You are too kind on Sunak. He’s been a fully paid up enthusiast for the current disaster, and indeed was Chancellor for a goodly period.
He’ll leave precisely zero legacy. Less than Theresa May’s.
I would say that May's stock rises with every day that has passed under her three successors.
There are some PMs to whom history will be kind even if people at the time weren’t. Everyone looks back quite kindly on John Major now despite the common impression for much of the nineties and noughties being that he was a complete disaster.
Blair will be forever tainted by Iraq. Brown will probably be seen as well meaning but not particularly successful (in a similar vein to May, I suspect). I very much doubt that Truss or Johnson will get good write ups.
May inherited a shit sandwich. Johnson had helped to make the sandwich, and also persuaded the country to eat it. Truss tried to get the country to eat a second fecal course without success. Sunak is trying to get us to keep chewing, while his personal chef rustles up something delicious in the room next door.
A constitutional question (I was drunkenly discussing this last night). Suppose a huge swathe of Tory MPs defected to Labour and took the Labour whip, meaning that Sir Keir could now easily control the majority of the House. What would happen? Would Sir Keir simply be made PM in Rishi's place, or would a general election be forced?
Where’s TSE to teach you a lesson on the Lascelles principles?
A constitutional question (I was drunkenly discussing this last night). Suppose a huge swathe of Tory MPs defected to Labour and took the Labour whip, meaning that Sir Keir could now easily control the majority of the House. What would happen? Would Sir Keir simply be made PM in Rishi's place, or would a general election be forced?
Opposition calls a confidence vote. Rishi loses it. He goes to palace and recommends that Sir Keir should be appointed PM on the basis that the latter now commands a majority. Sir Keir is appointed PM.
No need for an election (although Rishi could call one if he acts before losing the confidence vote).
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
My view is, over the year Sunak’ credibility has fallen apart in voters eyes. Slipping further behind Starmer in best PM recently is related to who voters feel will deliver on promises.
It’s not what you are promising, or your policies, it’s wether you are believed you can deliver on them. A key moment, ironically when we had peak Sunak earlier in the year, wise old Conservative heads were shaking when they sensed he was “overpromising” on some policy.
It’s reached the point of a glass ceiling for the Tories under Sunak, likely not in the 30s. Sunak is now dragging the Tory poll rating further down.
So that's the second opinion poll out today to show a Labour lead of 21% and this one includes fieldwork today.
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
My view is, over the year Sunak’ credibility has fallen apart in voters eyes. Slipping further behind Starmer in best PM recently is related to who voters feel will deliver on promises.
It’s not what you are promising, or your policies, it’s wether you are believed you can deliver on them. A key moment, ironically when we had peak Sunak earlier in the year, wise old Conservative heads were shaking when they sensed he was “overpromising” on some policy.
It’s reached the point of a glass ceiling for the Tories under Sunak, likely not in the 30s. Sunak is now dragging the Tory poll rating further down.
I think people probably gave Rishi a fair hearing for his first few months, to see if he was offering better government and solutions.
As it has now transpired that the government is still in a mess, and Rishi has very little in the way of solutions, people have now just shrugged their shoulders and moved on from the Tories.
A lot of this isn’t just Sunak’s fault - he has a lot of rotten figures and abject failures at the top of the Tory Party to work with - but he isn’t up to saving them. Very few people would be, given the state of the rot.
No. It was more than a few months, it’s only recently they view Sunak as bad as now, because it takes longer, nearly a year, to work out if someone can deliver on what they say they will.
Mike Smithson keeps hinting Conservatives might change leader with 1 year to go, like they did in 1963, and chewed up Labours big poll lead in those last months, though still lost by a little bit.
If you are still polling 24% 25% and 20+ behind, is there much jeopardy throwing the dice and offering voters a more dynamic and likeable PM, Chancellor and Home Secretary in build up to election?
You think Conservative members and MPs are going to choose Mordaunt? Because she's all they've got who could be described as "more dynamic and likeable".
Ironically I suspect if SKS had been Labour leader during Brexit he may well have become PM of a grand coalition
Ironically if it had been May vs SKS in 2017, she might have won her majority.
I highly doubt it. SKS will be a much better PM than TM ever was.
She was genuinely popular before that election campaign, and Corbyn was able to capture the public imagination at the time in a way that I don't think SKS is capable of.
Sudden sharp move to Labour for mid-Beds on Betfair (in from 4 to 2.74 at the time of writing) and out for the Lib Dems (from 1.9 to 2.26) - the numbers have been moving by a tenth of a % up to now. Tories also in from 3.6 to 3.3. A poll coming? The shift has left big holes in the market - lots of scope for trading bets (e.g. LDs are buy at 2.26, sell at 2.9).
Ironically I suspect if SKS had been Labour leader during Brexit he may well have become PM of a grand coalition
Ironically if it had been May vs SKS in 2017, she might have won her majority.
I highly doubt it. SKS will be a much better PM than TM ever was.
She was genuinely popular before that election campaign, and Corbyn was able to capture the public imagination at the time in a way that I don't think SKS is capable of.
And Corbyn no qualms about saying Labour would take us out of the single market ending free movement of people.
A constitutional question (I was drunkenly discussing this last night). Suppose a huge swathe of Tory MPs defected to Labour and took the Labour whip, meaning that Sir Keir could now easily control the majority of the House. What would happen? Would Sir Keir simply be made PM in Rishi's place, or would a general election be forced?
Opposition calls a confidence vote. Rishi loses it. He goes to palace and recommends that Sir Keir should be appointed PM on the basis that the latter now commands a majority. Sir Keir is appointed PM.
No need for an election (although Rishi could call one if he acts before losing the confidence vote).
Ah okay. That makes sense. Thanks. Labour would officially still be the opposition despite having the vast majority of MPs. So it would take the vote of confidence to politically re-calibrate everything.
Sudden sharp move to Labour for mid-Beds on Betfair (in from 4 to 2.74 at the time of writing) and out for the Lib Dems (from 1.9 to 2.26) - the numbers have been moving by a tenth of a % up to now. Tories also in from 3.6 to 3.3. A poll coming? The shift has left big holes in the market - lots of scope for trading bets (e.g. LDs are buy at 2.26, sell at 2.9).
RAAC remediation has to happen but it’s pure bad luck this is happening on Rishi’s watch.
The truth is, nobody has yet died from a collapsed school, and nor is that at all likely.
It depends on the failure mode, is what I want to know. If it fails by suddenly cracking, as in 'brittle', as opposed to distorting and bending and visibly cracking but with slow propagation, as in 'tough', then there is a real problem. The failure of a beam despite being reportedly inspected is a real worry. IANAE so can't judge what % of the current panic is soundly based (and all the more so for being neglected, both specifically and in the more general sense that rebuilding sooner would have eliminated the problem anyway).
Concrete is a brilliant but evil material. This stuff apparently usually has no reinforcing in it, which means I'd expect it to fail in a brittle manner, although a government document from a couple of years ago telling schools what to look for showed images of panels that were displaced/deflected.
Excellent, thanks, I hoped you would come up with the goods. Edit: RAAC does have reinforcement in it (*R*AAC) but no idea if it is designed to be continuous between sections.
I see from this it doesn't bond too well to reinforcement - hardly surprisingly presumably, it's like trying to araldite steel to an Aero bar I expect.
"Sight must not be lost of the fact that the 2018 collapse was sudden with very little noticeable warning. This is indicative of shear failure in cementitious materials and can only be protected against by knowing that there is sufficient shear resistance in the material, the reinforcement, or both. In a reminder, the LGA and the DfE stated that the condition of all buildings should be regularly monitored, taking a risk- based approach that gives due deliberation to the use of the building with consideration given to the possible impact of reduced maintenance."
Apols for that, it was stupid of me. It is reinforced, but it seems not in the 'classic' manner concrete is - which it seems helps make each panel lighter.
It's interesting that these panels are auroclaved: that should make the concrete a fair bit stronger than ambient curing. Albeit the material itself is weaker...
On another note, I *wish* BS documents were free online, and did not cost hundreds of pounds...
The RAAC issues could be huge. It feels like nobody has really got to the bottom of the impact yet, and how many properties it affects.
This could affect (as well as schools) hospitals, homes, infrastructure…. Very worrying.
How many buildings are spontaneously collapsing per year?
Not sure why this is very worrying whereas something like ever increasing obesity is just accepted as normal?
Oh, RAAC collapses are a recognised problem already. It looks as if it's not so much the whole thing but chunks of it - literally so, a lot of RAAC elements are precast in a factory.
A little poking around on this website in general shows that there are cases where RAAC ceiling elements had to be replaced because they were failing - and here is a case where they were not caught in time.
"In 2017, they were asked to investigate an RAAC roof which had collapsed in a school. Luckily, there was no one in the classroom at the time of the collapse. Shear failure of RAAC planks
According to the reporter, the cause of the collapse was a shear failure due to inadequate bearing following some structural alterations made by the school. The failure was triggered by outfall gutters becoming blocked which allowed ponding of water on the roof to quickly build up during a storm.
The reporter carried out a full structural survey of the school and found numerous other signs of progressing defects similar to those highlighted in the SCOSS Alert. Roof leaks can lead to the deterioration of RAAC planks
In 2019, the reporter was asked to investigate the partial failure of an RAAC plank at another school. Temporary props were installed to prevent collapse of the RAAC planks. The reporter carried out a full structural survey of the school and again found numerous defects in the planks. These were mainly related to historic roof leaks which caused the reinforcement in the planks to corrode and thus lose bond with the concrete.
The reporter is now frequently encountering RAAC planks in school roofs and their experience suggests that these planks are becoming more defective with time. They have also found that many schools are not aware that their roofs are constructed using RAAC planks and are therefore not aware of the risks."
The RAAC issues could be huge. It feels like nobody has really got to the bottom of the impact yet, and how many properties it affects.
This could affect (as well as schools) hospitals, homes, infrastructure…. Very worrying.
How many buildings are spontaneously collapsing per year?
Not sure why this is very worrying whereas something like ever increasing obesity is just accepted as normal?
I wouldn’t say ever increasing obesity isn’t worrying….
See upthread my example of Grenfell. The fact that buildings seemingly aren’t spontaneously collapsing (although haven’t there been some issues in schools over the summer that have triggered this scare?) doesn’t mean that a SINGLE spontaneous collapse, at the wrong place, and at the wrong time, would be horrendous and lead to all sorts of questions/issues/developments. The fact that nothing of that magnitude has happened yet but that this is becoming an issue is actually more reassuring, for once.
Ironically I suspect if SKS had been Labour leader during Brexit he may well have become PM of a grand coalition
Ironically if it had been May vs SKS in 2017, she might have won her majority.
I highly doubt it. SKS will be a much better PM than TM ever was.
She was genuinely popular before that election campaign, and Corbyn was able to capture the public imagination at the time in a way that I don't think SKS is capable of.
And Corbyn no qualms about saying Labour would take us out of the single market ending free movement of people.
Might have been tougher for Starmer to do that.
Most importantly, May would have been *a lot* more careful about what policies she was putting forward.
She put forward a right wing wet dream bucket list on the assumption there was no way on God's green Earth that anyone would vote for the Jezaster.
UK GDP is now, in fact, comfortably over its pre pandemic level and in line with peer nations and better than some. Not quite the Brexit basket-case that has been portrayed.
Excellent! An irrelevant metric (GDP) has gone up! The schools are falling down, the people are getting old, the children are badly educated, the town centres are crap, the houses are smaller and nothing works. But GDP has gone up. SO THAT'S ALRIGHT THEN.
If the Matrix came true and everybody was in pods, but the GDP of Zion went up, you'd be happy. If we imported slaves to do menial work and GDP went up, you'd be happy. If Daleks invaded and created Robomen to work and GDP went up, you'd be happy. If Nazi Germany invaded and literally enslaved the population and GDP went up, you'd be happy.
GDP measures the size of an economy. It does not measure the benefits to its people or even where the benefits are going. The Americans found out in Afghanistan that it's an inadequate metric but we are still nailed to it like it's meaningful.
I agree entirely that it makes no differene to the Tory prospects.
But it is the Remoaner clique that has spent the last few years moaning about Brexit and continually using our lower post Covid GDP growth as a key piece of evidence for how bad things are. If it turns out that that narrative was wrong, whatever its impact on today's politics, it does undermine one of their key arguments.
So this 'irrelevant metric' apparently only becomes irrelevant when it doesn't prove what people want it to prove.
Fair point.
(Incidentally that bit about the Americans in Afghanistan is true. They discovered that because it includes activity of/to foreign nationals, they werent registering that the common Afghani wasn't seeing the benefit. So they switched to household income as their metric)
1) Starlink is the LEO data satellite constellation being launched by SpaceX - 5000+ satellites launched). Currently using their Falcon 9 rocket. Which is the cheapest way of throwing stuff upstairs on Earth. They are hammering the competition. 2) Amazon want into the LEO data satellite constellation business. Their plan is called Kepler. Nothing launched yet. 3) Blue Origin is an operate company owned by Bezos - analogous to SpaceX. Nothing launched yet, but they are working on it. 4) So Bezos got Amazon to buy up all the non-SpaceX launch capacity around the world, to launch Kepler. Which costs more than SpaceX. He also got Amazon to contract with Blue Origin to buy future launches. At what price is rather obscure.
So other Amazon shareholders want the Bezos to swallow his pride and get cheaper launches from SpaceX until Blue Origin can compete on price.
A constitutional question (I was drunkenly discussing this last night). Suppose a huge swathe of Tory MPs defected to Labour and took the Labour whip, meaning that Sir Keir could now easily control the majority of the House. What would happen? Would Sir Keir simply be made PM in Rishi's place, or would a general election be forced?
Keir would become PM. A general election is only forced if no-one can command a majority in the House.
A constitutional question (I was drunkenly discussing this last night). Suppose a huge swathe of Tory MPs defected to Labour and took the Labour whip, meaning that Sir Keir could now easily control the majority of the House. What would happen? Would Sir Keir simply be made PM in Rishi's place, or would a general election be forced?
Where’s TSE to teach you a lesson on the Lascelles principles?
But in my scenario the PM (Rishi) doesn't actually ask for parliament to be dissolved. So I was wondering how that deadlock could be resolved. Surely Sir Keir can't just march into Rishi's office and tell him to sling his hook. But Richard Nabavi has now explained: an opposition vote of confidence would set matters straight.
Comments
Even if you agree with the Truss diagnosis and prescription, the disaster of that six weeks has made it less likely that that approach will be tried in the future.
(Although raises an epistemological question about why we should believe this new figure).
I agree with the take that too-pessimistic reporting has weighed significantly on investor and political sentiment.
I’m a moderate optimist about the UK economy at present, as I think all of the downside is baked into perception, and none of the upside.
This could affect (as well as schools) hospitals, homes, infrastructure…. Very worrying.
On your earlier point of the US also having seeming contrasting metrics, that's a function of GDI and GDP being different things that aren't necessarily supposed to reconcile but will correlate to each other over the time series. We have two measures of chained volume GDP which show different YoY tracking and both had the most up to date revisions data. The reason they don't reconcile is that they are produced by different teams and use different methodology to gather the data. At least that's the answer we got when we asked the ONS for an explanation as to why they were so different.
Uncharacteristically for me, perhaps, I think Gove was right to scrap it in the context of 2010.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1697568617288618133
"YouGov
@YouGov
Public support for...
CCTV monitoring all public spaces: 55%
Compulsory ID cards: 54%
National fingerprint database: 50% (net +10)
National DNA database: 45% (net +4)
Communications companies having to retain everyone's data: 16%"
"Tory voters are more likely to support security measures than Lab voters
Compulsory ID cards
Con: 65%
Lab: 42%
CCTV monitoring all public spaces
Con: 65%
Lab: 48%
National DNA database
Con: 59%
Lab: 35%
National fingerprint database
Con: 61%
Lab: 41%
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2023/08/30/britons-support-id-cards-cctv-monitoring-and-finge"
In truth, that remains a decent likelihood as the interest rate rises kick in, but I think there’s a better likelihood that by Autumn 24 inflation will be much lower, interest rates declining, and the economy growing.
I fear the costs of this will run unto many billions
I do remember vividly waking up in New York, reading the live feed of the “fiscal statement” on the Guardian and thinking, “OMG, what are they ON?”
Coke, I guess.
It only affects a small number of schools, but creates a perception that the whole country is falling down.
Individual emergency plans should have been instated to ensure schooling was/is able to continue. It is not acceptable, post-Covid, to close schools.
Same with DNA.
Tories do have a much greater faith in the legal system - and above all legal aid: or don't want to admit that it'sa getting dangerously close to a lottery whether one is found guilty or not, for want of proper legal representation and advice.
The truth is, nobody has yet died from a collapsed school, and nor is that at all likely.
"This “RAAC” concrete was installed for four decades but stopped in *1996*, when the Government suggested all buildings with it be inspected.
But did Labour do anything in their 13 years in office about it?
No, of course not. They’re only interested in soundbites."
https://twitter.com/OliverCooper/status/1697609934571991093
It’s certainly a colossal comms fuck up.
The BOE absolutely does not take the ONS GDP data at face value, take a look at the latest Monetary Policy Report, you will note that their fan charts for inflation and unemployment treat historical data as fact while for GDP they put uncertainty bands around the historical data reflecting the likelihood of revision. CPI data are never revised, while revisions to labour market data are typically minor.
The BOE's assessment of slack in the economy comes much more from looking at slack in the labour market and spare capacity within firms than from the GDP data, as a result. For sure the BOE would prefer more reliable GDP data and the big revisions don't help but they know the data aren't reliable and that's why they rely more on other data to inform their view on slack and what that means for inflation.
In my opinion their mistake has been to ignore how the experience of high inflation has changed price and wage setting behaviour and inflation psychology, leading to more persistent wage and services inflation, so that previous relationships no longer hold. This is an argument I've made in conversations with MPC members, and I'm sure others have, and I think they have started to get it, albeit too late.
Take Grenfell, for instance. Horrific tragedy. Would all the implications re that cladding have happened in recent years if that hadn’t occurred? Eventually something horrible would have happened, or someone would have stood up and the message would have filtered through that it wasn’t safe… but would it have happened so quickly otherwise?
By my reckoning thats about 35% of the respondents looking at Pornhub.
Real statists want eyeball trackers and implanted explosive devices. So the government can kill you at the touch of button, because lols.
..
My view is that the Conservatives are going to be eviscerated at the next General Election. Pb tories can castigate me all you like but my anecdotal antennae are backed up by polling.
Have a nice evening all.
xx
And it's not good. The building not only did not meet modern building codes, but also the building codes in place when it was designed. It had also been incorrectly constructed in some critical areas.
"Bell told the committee that the design of the deck slab fell “well short” of the applicable building code and that from the beginning the original structural design for the pool deck slab provided “low margins of safety”.
A second factor that the team is exploring is the improper replacement of the steel reinforcement in the pool deck slab during original construction, which was placed lower in the pool deck slab than was required by the design documents.
A third factor that reduced the margins of failure in the slab involved heavy materials that were added to the pool deck, such as planters, and the loading of the slab deck at the time of failure.
A fourth factor is the additional added weight to the pool slab. During a renovation of the pool deck almost 23cm of sand in a setting bed was added on top of the slab.
A fifth factor is the deterioration of the reinforcing steel in the pool deck. When examined, this exhibited corrosion to various degrees ranging from minor corrosion to spots where the corrosion is more pronounced."
https://www.geplus.co.uk/news/miami-building-that-collapsed-in-2021-did-not-meet-building-codes-21-06-2023/
And amazingly:
"In some places, the design provided only about half the strength required by 1981 codes and standards."
https://www.axios.com/2023/06/15/surfside-condo-collapse-designs-code-florida
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1182192/GUIDE-DFE-XX-XX-T-X-9002-Reinforced_Autoclaved_Aerated_Concrete_Identification_Guidance-A-C02.pdf
It’s not what you are promising, or your policies, it’s wether you are believed you can deliver on them. A key moment, ironically when we had peak Sunak earlier in the year, wise old Conservative heads were shaking when they sensed he was “overpromising” on some policy.
It’s reached the point of a glass ceiling for the Tories under Sunak, likely not in the 30s. Sunak is now dragging the Tory poll rating further down.
As it has now transpired that the government is still in a mess, and Rishi has very little in the way of solutions, people have now just shrugged their shoulders and moved on from the Tories.
A lot of this isn’t just Sunak’s fault - he has a lot of rotten figures and abject failures at the top of the Tory Party to work with - but he isn’t up to saving them. Very few people would be, given the state of the rot.
Tory Party Unpopularity + a Sunak as bad as this = 28-24% at General Election.
https://x.com/johnspringford/status/1697573504697159990?s=46&t=L9g_woCIqbo1MTuBFCK0xg
But the main thing is that we've had another week where the polls haven't moved in the Conservatives' favour.
And Major's 31 percent is still an aspirational target.
He’s been a fully paid up enthusiast for the current disaster, and indeed was Chancellor for a goodly period.
He’ll leave precisely zero legacy.
Less than Theresa May’s.
But he's not enough of an improvement. And he does have flaws of his own.
I see from this it doesn't bond too well to reinforcement - hardly surprisingly presumably, it's like trying to araldite steel to an Aero bar I expect.
https://www.cross-safety.org/sites/default/files/2019-05/failure-reinforced-autoclaved-aerated-concrete-planks.pdf
"Sight must not be lost of the fact that the 2018 collapse was
sudden with very little noticeable warning. This is indicative
of shear failure in cementitious materials and can only be
protected against by knowing that there is sufficient shear
resistance in the material, the reinforcement, or both.
In a reminder, the LGA and the DfE stated that the condition
of all buildings should be regularly monitored, taking a risk-
based approach that gives due deliberation to the use of the
building with consideration given to the possible impact of
reduced maintenance."
Mike Smithson keeps hinting Conservatives might change leader with 1 year to go, like they did in 1963, and chewed up Labours big poll lead in those last months, though still lost by a little bit.
If you are still polling 24% 25% and 20+ behind, is there much jeopardy throwing the dice and offering voters a more dynamic and likeable PM, Chancellor and Home Secretary in build up to election?
He no obvious support outside Hindi nationalists.
Blair will be forever tainted by Iraq. Brown will probably be seen as well meaning but not particularly successful (in a similar vein to May, I suspect). I very much doubt that Truss or Johnson will get good write ups.
The way she managed to negotiate with the EU and bring the party with her was magical whereas Sunak flopped with the Windsor agreement and the way he’s positively engaged with EU leaders.
1 They don't have an attractive set of subs on the bench.
2 If they did, and they could get past the party, what could they actually do in the next twelve months?
Meanwhile, following on from this "Sunak is poor" stuff, who'd win in a Sunak-May mediocrity-off?
What about Sunak-Home?
Liverpools rivals certainly won’t want them to pick up £150M or even £175M or £200M for 31 year old Mo. Man Utd couldn’t even afford £8M loan fee for Cucurella, and still have enough of the Glaziers money to complete the deal for The Bat today. Liverpool could propel themselves back from the periphery into serious contention, spending that bonus £175 mill over the coming windows.
Don’t get me wrong, there are some Tories I could see as future leaders who might do ok in opposition. Badenoch/Mordaunt being the two I would cite. But as PMs to face an electorate after changing PM three times in the last parliament? I think both have some political talent. I’m not sure they have THAT much.
I’m not talking about Tory getting majority, but the 1963 change of tone chewed up nearly all Labours poll lead.
The latest Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) information shows that the UK is one of the first countries in the world to estimate the 2020 and 2021 coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic period through the SUT framework. The United States has also published SUTs for 2021.
This means that the UK has one of the most up-to-date sets of estimates for this period of considerable economic change. Other countries follow different revision policies and practices, which can result in their estimates being revised at a later date. It is important this is considered when comparing the UK with other countries and our international comparison position is likely to change once other countries fully confront their datasets over time.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/articles/impactofbluebook2023changesongrossdomesticproduct/2023-09-01
Apart from "don't assume that you can make international comparisons".
Not sure why this is very worrying whereas something like ever increasing obesity is just accepted as normal?
No need for an election (although Rishi could call one if he acts before losing the confidence vote).
He should do it more often.
Might have been tougher for Starmer to do that.
It's interesting that these panels are auroclaved: that should make the concrete a fair bit stronger than ambient curing. Albeit the material itself is weaker...
On another note, I *wish* BS documents were free online, and did not cost hundreds of pounds...
(IANAE, etc, etc)
A little poking around on this website in general shows that there are cases where RAAC ceiling elements had to be replaced because they were failing - and here is a case where they were not caught in time.
https://www.cross-safety.org/uk/safety-information/cross-safety-report/failure-raac-planks-schools-908
"In 2017, they were asked to investigate an RAAC roof which had collapsed in a school. Luckily, there was no one in the classroom at the time of the collapse.
Shear failure of RAAC planks
According to the reporter, the cause of the collapse was a shear failure due to inadequate bearing following some structural alterations made by the school. The failure was triggered by outfall gutters becoming blocked which allowed ponding of water on the roof to quickly build up during a storm.
The reporter carried out a full structural survey of the school and found numerous other signs of progressing defects similar to those highlighted in the SCOSS Alert.
Roof leaks can lead to the deterioration of RAAC planks
In 2019, the reporter was asked to investigate the partial failure of an RAAC plank at another school. Temporary props were installed to prevent collapse of the RAAC planks. The reporter carried out a full structural survey of the school and again found numerous defects in the planks. These were mainly related to historic roof leaks which caused the reinforcement in the planks to corrode and thus lose bond with the concrete.
The reporter is now frequently encountering RAAC planks in school roofs and their experience suggests that these planks are becoming more defective with time. They have also found that many schools are not aware that their roofs are constructed using RAAC planks and are therefore not aware of the risks."
See upthread my example of Grenfell. The fact that buildings seemingly aren’t spontaneously collapsing (although haven’t there been some issues in schools over the summer that have triggered this scare?) doesn’t mean that a SINGLE spontaneous collapse, at the wrong place, and at the wrong time, would be horrendous and lead to all sorts of questions/issues/developments. The fact that nothing of that magnitude has happened yet but that this is becoming an issue is actually more reassuring, for once.
She put forward a right wing wet dream bucket list on the assumption there was no way on God's green Earth that anyone would vote for the Jezaster.
She was completely wrong.
(Incidentally that bit about the Americans in Afghanistan is true. They discovered that because it includes activity of/to foreign nationals, they werent registering that the common Afghani wasn't seeing the benefit. So they switched to household income as their metric)
https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/09/pension-fund-sues-jeff-bezos-and-amazon-for-not-using-falcon-9-rockets/
For those who don't know
1) Starlink is the LEO data satellite constellation being launched by SpaceX - 5000+ satellites launched). Currently using their Falcon 9 rocket. Which is the cheapest way of throwing stuff upstairs on Earth. They are hammering the competition.
2) Amazon want into the LEO data satellite constellation business. Their plan is called Kepler. Nothing launched yet.
3) Blue Origin is an operate company owned by Bezos - analogous to SpaceX. Nothing launched yet, but they are working on it.
4) So Bezos got Amazon to buy up all the non-SpaceX launch capacity around the world, to launch Kepler. Which costs more than SpaceX. He also got Amazon to contract with Blue Origin to buy future launches. At what price is rather obscure.
So other Amazon shareholders want the Bezos to swallow his pride and get cheaper launches from SpaceX until Blue Origin can compete on price.