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Mid Beds could go CON, LAB or LD – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,889
edited September 2023 in General
imageMid Beds could go CON, LAB or LD – politicalbetting.com

From a betting perspective the by-election in Mid Bedfordshire looks set to be the most intriguing contest of recent times.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Options
    First like Labour??
  • Options
    FPT

    Just paid our first tranche of protection money to Sadiq - two-days' worth of ULEZ charge (£25) to cover our journey from Ilford to my brother's place just the other side of Basildon. We left yesterday and got back an hour or so ago.
  • Options
    All parties should go full throttle at this and try to win. What have they got to lose?

    The Tories have a healthy majority anyway, so its not as if "letting in" someone else changes the Parliamentary arithmetic.

    If you win, then fantastic, and you can try to keep the seat next time.
    If you lose, you've not lost anything.

    Go for it.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,910
    Still make the LD's third favourite.
    Sorry OGH.
    If I had to be pushed I'd say Tory hold. With Labour third. But the value is laying the LD's.
    It is very complex. A rogue poll could have a lot of influence. Expect the Tory press have one prepared.
  • Options
    jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 744
    FPT:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    nico679 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    French President Emmanuel Macron slammed the two-term constitutional limit that means he must step down in 2027 as “damnable bullshit” in a meeting with party leaders yesterday.

    https://x.com/politicoeurope/status/1697270887429419380

    Indeed, with Macron ineligible to be her opponent again Marine Le Pen has a real chance of winning the French Presidency in her third attempt at the run off stage
    If Le Pen wins it will be hilarious to see the contortions of the Remoaners
    Why . Le Pen has ditched her proposals for a referendum . The French aren’t leaving the EU no matter how desperate Leavers are to see some validation for their idiocy !
    What more validation do they need?! Aren't the glories of the Truss premiership enough?
    @Foxy actually makes a good point about Meloni, even if I replied sardonically

    Meloni has been forced to retreat, quite significantly, now she has been elected

    I wonder if Le Pen will do the same if she wins? Tack to the centre right, from the hard right? (she is no longer in any sense "far right" like her dad)

    Quite possibly. Tho the difference is she has pressure from her right, as well as her left. Zemmour gets few votes but he is an influential figure
    It's not only the left who get mugged by reality; the right does too. Within the various constraints of western Europe and the EU the area of what is possible in government is highly restricted by common moral sense, and by pre existing patterns of development.

    Both left and right populism suffer from the defect that while each individual populist proposal (stop the boats, family values, whatever) may even have some merit and certainly support, governments have to run entire states including all the contradictions and over simplifications inherent in the totality of populist positions.
    Indeed. But I point you to the success of Poland - almost zero immigration (absent Ukraine), specifically zero Muslim/black immigration (that is a blunt fact, even if we find it racist or offensive), and they have a relatively thriving economy, bustling cities, and one of the lowest crime rates in the developed world

    They really don't want to end up as fucked as Sweden

    Polish crime rate:


    "Poland has one of the lowest violent crime rates in Europe, with particularly low levels of vandalism and arson. Its homicide rate is also one of the lowest in the world"

    https://www.visionofhumanity.org/country-focus-poland/

    I can vouch for this feeling of safety. You can walk around a Polish city and you don't worry about having your phone stolen. Sadly, London is very different
    Immigration can deliver against demographic challenges but can also deliver social change.

    Japan isn't bothered by either, Sweden (hitherto) really likes the latter, Canada likes both, and we essentially like just the former.

    Poland thinks there's another way, and there is if you can home grow the skills and up your birth/ growth rate.
    Sweden is rapidly changing its mind on the whole "immigration is great for social change!" thing

    "Sweden rocked by four blasts in one night. Swedish cities were rocked by 4 explosions in an hour, with the country struggling to rein in a surge of gang-related violence.

    "Gang related violence" didn't exist in Sweden 30 years ago. Police are baffled."

    https://twitter.com/UltraDane/status/1697332241943450065?s=20
    That's where modern-day Left-wing ideology leads.

    Thirty years ago was the Nordic Biker War. Of course gang related violence existed. They were launching anti tank missiles at each other
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,910
    Not a joyous week for Scottish football.
    Over 8 games in this European round, lost six, drawn two. By an aggregate of 26-7.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,044

    All parties should go full throttle at this and try to win. What have they got to lose?

    The Tories have a healthy majority anyway, so its not as if "letting in" someone else changes the Parliamentary arithmetic.

    If you win, then fantastic, and you can try to keep the seat next time.
    If you lose, you've not lost anything.

    Go for it.

    I agree, for a different reason: if the Tories do squeeze in, it will raise the profile of the need for tactical voting in the GE.
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,450
    Apart from possibly laying the LDs, I don’t at the moment see any outstanding betting opportunity in Mid Beds. Safest bet ATM seems to be not to bet.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,077
    Labour are polling higher than they have since the early Blair years and on the Selby by election swing would win Mid Beds, so will not give the LDs a clear run
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,450
    dixiedean said:

    Not a joyous week for Scottish football.
    Over 8 games in this European round, lost six, drawn two. By an aggregate of 26-7.

    Scottish football shows what happens when you have precious little money and an incompetent management. Also, the SNP.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,341
    Good to get an actually intriguing by-election.

    Not that massive swings are not interesting, who doesn't love a bit of drama after all, but despite lip service in those seats it was always clear who the main opponent to the Tories would be. This one I really doubt will be a close three way or anything, it's just not immediately clear who benefits.

    My gut feeling is that Labour will now claim the mantle of principal opposition in the seat. Something in the general nature of reporting just doesn't feel like a LD triumph to me.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,044
    edited August 2023
    Central Bedfordshire council is currently formulating their 4th Local Transport Plan. The first document of the plan, published before the Tories lost half their seats in the 2023 election, discusses reducing on-street parking to encourage more walking and cycling for shorter journeys, and for longer journeys encourage more sustainable options such as using public transport wherever possible.

    Here we go!
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,341
    franklyn said:

    Well eat your heart out kim jong-un, the BMA junior voted over 98% for extending their industrial action.

    And well done to the BMA. This is a battle to save the NHS. If any of you actually want to have a functioning NHS, now is the time to support them.

    The funny thing is I could read your post as either sincere or ironic and it still works.
  • Options
    Is there any betting opportunities around the order of the first three? Eg LD win, L second, C third?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,031

    FPT:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    nico679 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    French President Emmanuel Macron slammed the two-term constitutional limit that means he must step down in 2027 as “damnable bullshit” in a meeting with party leaders yesterday.

    https://x.com/politicoeurope/status/1697270887429419380

    Indeed, with Macron ineligible to be her opponent again Marine Le Pen has a real chance of winning the French Presidency in her third attempt at the run off stage
    If Le Pen wins it will be hilarious to see the contortions of the Remoaners
    Why . Le Pen has ditched her proposals for a referendum . The French aren’t leaving the EU no matter how desperate Leavers are to see some validation for their idiocy !
    What more validation do they need?! Aren't the glories of the Truss premiership enough?
    @Foxy actually makes a good point about Meloni, even if I replied sardonically

    Meloni has been forced to retreat, quite significantly, now she has been elected

    I wonder if Le Pen will do the same if she wins? Tack to the centre right, from the hard right? (she is no longer in any sense "far right" like her dad)

    Quite possibly. Tho the difference is she has pressure from her right, as well as her left. Zemmour gets few votes but he is an influential figure
    It's not only the left who get mugged by reality; the right does too. Within the various constraints of western Europe and the EU the area of what is possible in government is highly restricted by common moral sense, and by pre existing patterns of development.

    Both left and right populism suffer from the defect that while each individual populist proposal (stop the boats, family values, whatever) may even have some merit and certainly support, governments have to run entire states including all the contradictions and over simplifications inherent in the totality of populist positions.
    Indeed. But I point you to the success of Poland - almost zero immigration (absent Ukraine), specifically zero Muslim/black immigration (that is a blunt fact, even if we find it racist or offensive), and they have a relatively thriving economy, bustling cities, and one of the lowest crime rates in the developed world

    They really don't want to end up as fucked as Sweden

    Polish crime rate:


    "Poland has one of the lowest violent crime rates in Europe, with particularly low levels of vandalism and arson. Its homicide rate is also one of the lowest in the world"

    https://www.visionofhumanity.org/country-focus-poland/

    I can vouch for this feeling of safety. You can walk around a Polish city and you don't worry about having your phone stolen. Sadly, London is very different
    Immigration can deliver against demographic challenges but can also deliver social change.

    Japan isn't bothered by either, Sweden (hitherto) really likes the latter, Canada likes both, and we essentially like just the former.

    Poland thinks there's another way, and there is if you can home grow the skills and up your birth/ growth rate.
    Sweden is rapidly changing its mind on the whole "immigration is great for social change!" thing

    "Sweden rocked by four blasts in one night. Swedish cities were rocked by 4 explosions in an hour, with the country struggling to rein in a surge of gang-related violence.

    "Gang related violence" didn't exist in Sweden 30 years ago. Police are baffled."

    https://twitter.com/UltraDane/status/1697332241943450065?s=20
    That's where modern-day Left-wing ideology leads.

    Thirty years ago was the Nordic Biker War. Of course gang related violence existed. They were launching anti tank missiles at each other
    Armbrurst IIRC?
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,408

    First like Labour??

    No that would be 3rd in Mid Beds.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 29,878
    HYUFD said:

    Labour are polling higher than they have since the early Blair years and on the Selby by election swing would win Mid Beds, so will not give the LDs a clear run

    Which means the Tories' chances go from about 1% to around 50%.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,219

    FPT:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    nico679 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    French President Emmanuel Macron slammed the two-term constitutional limit that means he must step down in 2027 as “damnable bullshit” in a meeting with party leaders yesterday.

    https://x.com/politicoeurope/status/1697270887429419380

    Indeed, with Macron ineligible to be her opponent again Marine Le Pen has a real chance of winning the French Presidency in her third attempt at the run off stage
    If Le Pen wins it will be hilarious to see the contortions of the Remoaners
    Why . Le Pen has ditched her proposals for a referendum . The French aren’t leaving the EU no matter how desperate Leavers are to see some validation for their idiocy !
    What more validation do they need?! Aren't the glories of the Truss premiership enough?
    @Foxy actually makes a good point about Meloni, even if I replied sardonically

    Meloni has been forced to retreat, quite significantly, now she has been elected

    I wonder if Le Pen will do the same if she wins? Tack to the centre right, from the hard right? (she is no longer in any sense "far right" like her dad)

    Quite possibly. Tho the difference is she has pressure from her right, as well as her left. Zemmour gets few votes but he is an influential figure
    It's not only the left who get mugged by reality; the right does too. Within the various constraints of western Europe and the EU the area of what is possible in government is highly restricted by common moral sense, and by pre existing patterns of development.

    Both left and right populism suffer from the defect that while each individual populist proposal (stop the boats, family values, whatever) may even have some merit and certainly support, governments have to run entire states including all the contradictions and over simplifications inherent in the totality of populist positions.
    Indeed. But I point you to the success of Poland - almost zero immigration (absent Ukraine), specifically zero Muslim/black immigration (that is a blunt fact, even if we find it racist or offensive), and they have a relatively thriving economy, bustling cities, and one of the lowest crime rates in the developed world

    They really don't want to end up as fucked as Sweden

    Polish crime rate:


    "Poland has one of the lowest violent crime rates in Europe, with particularly low levels of vandalism and arson. Its homicide rate is also one of the lowest in the world"

    https://www.visionofhumanity.org/country-focus-poland/

    I can vouch for this feeling of safety. You can walk around a Polish city and you don't worry about having your phone stolen. Sadly, London is very different
    Immigration can deliver against demographic challenges but can also deliver social change.

    Japan isn't bothered by either, Sweden (hitherto) really likes the latter, Canada likes both, and we essentially like just the former.

    Poland thinks there's another way, and there is if you can home grow the skills and up your birth/ growth rate.
    Sweden is rapidly changing its mind on the whole "immigration is great for social change!" thing

    "Sweden rocked by four blasts in one night. Swedish cities were rocked by 4 explosions in an hour, with the country struggling to rein in a surge of gang-related violence.

    "Gang related violence" didn't exist in Sweden 30 years ago. Police are baffled."

    https://twitter.com/UltraDane/status/1697332241943450065?s=20
    That's where modern-day Left-wing ideology leads.

    Thirty years ago was the Nordic Biker War. Of course gang related violence existed. They were launching anti tank missiles at each other
    The Nordic Biker Wars were properly insane, and stretched across Denmark, Sweden and Finland.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,556

    dixiedean said:

    Not a joyous week for Scottish football.
    Over 8 games in this European round, lost six, drawn two. By an aggregate of 26-7.

    Scottish football shows what happens when you have precious little money and an incompetent management. Also, the SNP.
    Bit unfair to blame the SNP. THe ScoTories have a much closer connexion to the game. Vide Mr Ross and Mr "Queen's XI" Fraser.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,910
    Of course. The Independent (or not) adds another layer of complexity to all this.
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,450
    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Not a joyous week for Scottish football.
    Over 8 games in this European round, lost six, drawn two. By an aggregate of 26-7.

    Scottish football shows what happens when you have precious little money and an incompetent management. Also, the SNP.
    Bit unfair to blame the SNP. THe ScoTories have a much closer connexion to the game. Vide Mr Ross and Mr "Queen's XI" Fraser.
    Not blaming the SNP for the state of Scottish football. Highlighting two organisations that both have little money and incompetent management.
  • Options

    First like Labour??

    No that would be 3rd in Mid Beds.
    Where will the Green Tories come?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,077
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour are polling higher than they have since the early Blair years and on the Selby by election swing would win Mid Beds, so will not give the LDs a clear run

    Which means the Tories' chances go from about 1% to around 50%.
    Well so what, Starmer wants to be PM of a Labour government with an overall majority, not a minority Labour government reliant on the LDs which from his perspective would be more likely if the LDs won a Tory seat Labour were second in in 2019
  • Options

    FPT

    Just paid our first tranche of protection money to Sadiq - two-days' worth of ULEZ charge (£25) to cover our journey from Ilford to my brother's place just the other side of Basildon. We left yesterday and got back an hour or so ago.

    You got back from Basildon, alive? Lucky kid.
  • Options

    FPT

    Just paid our first tranche of protection money to Sadiq - two-days' worth of ULEZ charge (£25) to cover our journey from Ilford to my brother's place just the other side of Basildon. We left yesterday and got back an hour or so ago.

    You got back from Basildon, alive? Lucky kid.
    Well, technically it's in Rochefort :)
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 50,693

    FPT:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    nico679 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    French President Emmanuel Macron slammed the two-term constitutional limit that means he must step down in 2027 as “damnable bullshit” in a meeting with party leaders yesterday.

    https://x.com/politicoeurope/status/1697270887429419380

    Indeed, with Macron ineligible to be her opponent again Marine Le Pen has a real chance of winning the French Presidency in her third attempt at the run off stage
    If Le Pen wins it will be hilarious to see the contortions of the Remoaners
    Why . Le Pen has ditched her proposals for a referendum . The French aren’t leaving the EU no matter how desperate Leavers are to see some validation for their idiocy !
    What more validation do they need?! Aren't the glories of the Truss premiership enough?
    @Foxy actually makes a good point about Meloni, even if I replied sardonically

    Meloni has been forced to retreat, quite significantly, now she has been elected

    I wonder if Le Pen will do the same if she wins? Tack to the centre right, from the hard right? (she is no longer in any sense "far right" like her dad)

    Quite possibly. Tho the difference is she has pressure from her right, as well as her left. Zemmour gets few votes but he is an influential figure
    It's not only the left who get mugged by reality; the right does too. Within the various constraints of western Europe and the EU the area of what is possible in government is highly restricted by common moral sense, and by pre existing patterns of development.

    Both left and right populism suffer from the defect that while each individual populist proposal (stop the boats, family values, whatever) may even have some merit and certainly support, governments have to run entire states including all the contradictions and over simplifications inherent in the totality of populist positions.
    Indeed. But I point you to the success of Poland - almost zero immigration (absent Ukraine), specifically zero Muslim/black immigration (that is a blunt fact, even if we find it racist or offensive), and they have a relatively thriving economy, bustling cities, and one of the lowest crime rates in the developed world

    They really don't want to end up as fucked as Sweden

    Polish crime rate:


    "Poland has one of the lowest violent crime rates in Europe, with particularly low levels of vandalism and arson. Its homicide rate is also one of the lowest in the world"

    https://www.visionofhumanity.org/country-focus-poland/

    I can vouch for this feeling of safety. You can walk around a Polish city and you don't worry about having your phone stolen. Sadly, London is very different
    Immigration can deliver against demographic challenges but can also deliver social change.

    Japan isn't bothered by either, Sweden (hitherto) really likes the latter, Canada likes both, and we essentially like just the former.

    Poland thinks there's another way, and there is if you can home grow the skills and up your birth/ growth rate.
    Sweden is rapidly changing its mind on the whole "immigration is great for social change!" thing

    "Sweden rocked by four blasts in one night. Swedish cities were rocked by 4 explosions in an hour, with the country struggling to rein in a surge of gang-related violence.

    "Gang related violence" didn't exist in Sweden 30 years ago. Police are baffled."

    https://twitter.com/UltraDane/status/1697332241943450065?s=20
    That's where modern-day Left-wing ideology leads.

    Thirty years ago was the Nordic Biker War. Of course gang related violence existed. They were launching anti tank missiles at each other
    I mean, sorry, but what UTTER FUCKING BOLLOCKS

    The Nordic Biker Wars resulted in nine people dead (7 bikers) over three years, and that stretched across Finland, Norway, Denmark, and Sweden

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nordic_Biker_War

    The reality today?


    "Sweden hits record with 60 shot dead in 2022
    Reuters
    December 19, 2022"

    One year alone, 60 dead, in just Sweden, and most of them gang related

    Here:


    "How Peaceful Sweden Became Europe’s Gun-Murder Capital
    Scandinavia’s answer to Pablo Escobar orchestrates much of the growing violence from Turkey"


    https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-peaceful-sweden-became-europes-gun-murder-capital-a5b500a7

    This piffling whataboutery no longer works


  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,077

    FPT

    Just paid our first tranche of protection money to Sadiq - two-days' worth of ULEZ charge (£25) to cover our journey from Ilford to my brother's place just the other side of Basildon. We left yesterday and got back an hour or so ago.

    You got back from Basildon, alive? Lucky kid.
    Of course, Sunil was a Leaver!
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,080
    On topic, Labour are certainly going full blaze for Mid Beds. A 'personal' email from Labour's candidate has gone out to all members tonight, seeking support both financial and on the doorstep. I don't recall getting one of those for either Selby or Somerton & Frome.
  • Options
    In a genuine three-corner fight, I'd generally prefer to back the outsider of the three.

    In this one, I'd want to see a little more liquidity though, and a tighter overround.
  • Options

    FPT

    Just paid our first tranche of protection money to Sadiq - two-days' worth of ULEZ charge (£25) to cover our journey from Ilford to my brother's place just the other side of Basildon. We left yesterday and got back an hour or so ago.

    You got back from Basildon, alive? Lucky kid.
    Well, technically it's in Rochefort :)
    Don't you have to go past Basildon to get there....and without an armed guard?
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 29,878

    On topic, Labour are certainly going full blaze for Mid Beds. A 'personal' email from Labour's candidate has gone out to all members tonight, seeking support both financial and on the doorstep. I don't recall getting one of those for either Selby or Somerton & Frome.

    The problem is Labour just don't have the base to win a seat like Mid Beds. You can see this from the 1997 election result where they only managed 32.5% to the Tories' 46%.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,077
    Andy_JS said:

    On topic, Labour are certainly going full blaze for Mid Beds. A 'personal' email from Labour's candidate has gone out to all members tonight, seeking support both financial and on the doorstep. I don't recall getting one of those for either Selby or Somerton & Frome.

    The problem is Labour just don't have the base to win a seat like Mid Beds. You can see this from the 1997 election result where they only managed 32.5% to the Tories' 46%.
    On the Selby swing Labour would win Mid Beds and Labour were second in the seat in 1997 and 2019, not the LDs
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,117
    There is bugger-all liquidity in the market. 2.04 on BF to lay the LDs is good, but £34? Jeez, not worth opening an account for.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,219
    Leon said:

    FPT:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    nico679 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    French President Emmanuel Macron slammed the two-term constitutional limit that means he must step down in 2027 as “damnable bullshit” in a meeting with party leaders yesterday.

    https://x.com/politicoeurope/status/1697270887429419380

    Indeed, with Macron ineligible to be her opponent again Marine Le Pen has a real chance of winning the French Presidency in her third attempt at the run off stage
    If Le Pen wins it will be hilarious to see the contortions of the Remoaners
    Why . Le Pen has ditched her proposals for a referendum . The French aren’t leaving the EU no matter how desperate Leavers are to see some validation for their idiocy !
    What more validation do they need?! Aren't the glories of the Truss premiership enough?
    @Foxy actually makes a good point about Meloni, even if I replied sardonically

    Meloni has been forced to retreat, quite significantly, now she has been elected

    I wonder if Le Pen will do the same if she wins? Tack to the centre right, from the hard right? (she is no longer in any sense "far right" like her dad)

    Quite possibly. Tho the difference is she has pressure from her right, as well as her left. Zemmour gets few votes but he is an influential figure
    It's not only the left who get mugged by reality; the right does too. Within the various constraints of western Europe and the EU the area of what is possible in government is highly restricted by common moral sense, and by pre existing patterns of development.

    Both left and right populism suffer from the defect that while each individual populist proposal (stop the boats, family values, whatever) may even have some merit and certainly support, governments have to run entire states including all the contradictions and over simplifications inherent in the totality of populist positions.
    Indeed. But I point you to the success of Poland - almost zero immigration (absent Ukraine), specifically zero Muslim/black immigration (that is a blunt fact, even if we find it racist or offensive), and they have a relatively thriving economy, bustling cities, and one of the lowest crime rates in the developed world

    They really don't want to end up as fucked as Sweden

    Polish crime rate:


    "Poland has one of the lowest violent crime rates in Europe, with particularly low levels of vandalism and arson. Its homicide rate is also one of the lowest in the world"

    https://www.visionofhumanity.org/country-focus-poland/

    I can vouch for this feeling of safety. You can walk around a Polish city and you don't worry about having your phone stolen. Sadly, London is very different
    Immigration can deliver against demographic challenges but can also deliver social change.

    Japan isn't bothered by either, Sweden (hitherto) really likes the latter, Canada likes both, and we essentially like just the former.

    Poland thinks there's another way, and there is if you can home grow the skills and up your birth/ growth rate.
    Sweden is rapidly changing its mind on the whole "immigration is great for social change!" thing

    "Sweden rocked by four blasts in one night. Swedish cities were rocked by 4 explosions in an hour, with the country struggling to rein in a surge of gang-related violence.

    "Gang related violence" didn't exist in Sweden 30 years ago. Police are baffled."

    https://twitter.com/UltraDane/status/1697332241943450065?s=20
    That's where modern-day Left-wing ideology leads.

    Thirty years ago was the Nordic Biker War. Of course gang related violence existed. They were launching anti tank missiles at each other
    I mean, sorry, but what UTTER FUCKING BOLLOCKS

    The Nordic Biker Wars resulted in nine people dead (7 bikers) over three years, and that stretched across Finland, Norway, Denmark, and Sweden

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nordic_Biker_War

    The reality today?


    "Sweden hits record with 60 shot dead in 2022
    Reuters
    December 19, 2022"

    One year alone, 60 dead, in just Sweden, and most of them gang related

    Here:


    "How Peaceful Sweden Became Europe’s Gun-Murder Capital
    Scandinavia’s answer to Pablo Escobar orchestrates much of the growing violence from Turkey"


    https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-peaceful-sweden-became-europes-gun-murder-capital-a5b500a7

    This piffling whataboutery no longer works


    Let's look at that Swedish murder rate shall we, to see how it has soared on the back of unbridled immigration:



    https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/SWE/sweden/murder-homicide-rate#:~:text=Sweden murder/homicide rate for,a 5.4% decline from 2017.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,080
    Andy_JS said:

    On topic, Labour are certainly going full blaze for Mid Beds. A 'personal' email from Labour's candidate has gone out to all members tonight, seeking support both financial and on the doorstep. I don't recall getting one of those for either Selby or Somerton & Frome.

    The problem is Labour just don't have the base to win a seat like Mid Beds. You can see this from the 1997 election result where they only managed 32.5% to the Tories' 46%.
    You may be right, and personally I'd be surprised if Labour win it.
    But I don't think the 1997 election result has any relevance.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,219
    Fwiw, I think Sweden has really fucked up its immigration policy, especially in contrast to next door Norway. But there's a lot of hyperbole in some posts...
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,219
    And, as an aside, the Polish murder chart is equally interesting:

    https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/POL/poland/murder-homicide-rate
  • Options
    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,237
    The banter outcome for Mid Beds is Con 1st, LD 2nd, Lab 3rd.

    That allows the LibDems to accuse Labour of splitting the vote and opens up the usual Labour civil war of “too beige” vs “too socialist” vs “all the fault of someone in LOTO’s office who I don’t like” vs (contd. p94)
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,611
    rcs1000 said:

    And, as an aside, the Polish murder chart is equally interesting:

    https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/POL/poland/murder-homicide-rate

    Did all the murderers leave after they joined the EU?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 50,693
    rcs1000 said:

    Fwiw, I think Sweden has really fucked up its immigration policy, especially in contrast to next door Norway. But there's a lot of hyperbole in some posts...

    Do you want to do rapes, and sexual offences? No? OK, I’ll do them



  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,456
    edited August 2023
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    On topic, Labour are certainly going full blaze for Mid Beds. A 'personal' email from Labour's candidate has gone out to all members tonight, seeking support both financial and on the doorstep. I don't recall getting one of those for either Selby or Somerton & Frome.

    The problem is Labour just don't have the base to win a seat like Mid Beds. You can see this from the 1997 election result where they only managed 32.5% to the Tories' 46%.
    On the Selby swing Labour would win Mid Beds and Labour were second in the seat in 1997 and 2019, not the LDs
    Since 1987, LDs came second only in 2005 and 2010.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,219

    rcs1000 said:

    And, as an aside, the Polish murder chart is equally interesting:

    https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/POL/poland/murder-homicide-rate

    Did all the murderers leave after they joined the EU?
    Nope: but young men are people who commit murders, and the young men left when they joined the EU.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 29,878
    The reason Sweden is significant is because of how badly they've managed immigration compared to similar countries like Denmark and Norway.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,713
    edited August 2023
    There won't be a mid-Beds by election: Sunak to announce an October GE just before the Tory Party conference, on the basis that 'it's not going to get any better than now'.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,219
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Fwiw, I think Sweden has really fucked up its immigration policy, especially in contrast to next door Norway. But there's a lot of hyperbole in some posts...

    Do you want to do rapes, and sexual offences? No? OK, I’ll do them



    As I said, I agree that Sweden has really fucked up its immigration policy.

  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,219
    It is - of course - worth noting that Sweden has significantly broaden what constitutes rape:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rape_in_Sweden
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 50,693
    I mean. Just look at the graphs. The first graph shows swedish sexual offences against women, including rape






    The second graph shows Swedish immigration. The purple line is migration into Sweden





  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,219
    Andy_JS said:

    The reason Sweden is significant is because of how badly they've managed immigration compared to similar countries like Denmark and Norway.

    That's certainly true. Indeed, it's hard to think of anywhere that has managed to fuck it up so badly.

    And the crazy bit is, the Swedes haven't actually taken that many asylum seekers compared to - say - Spain or Switzerland. And yet, they've managed to ghettoize them and completely fail any kind of assimilation, or fitting in with local norms.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 50,693
    edited August 2023
    i don't think I have ever won a PB argument so comprehensively

    I thangyou, I thangyou. Try the fish, etc
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,219
    Leon said:

    I mean. Just look at the graphs. The first graph shows swedish sexual offences against women, including rape






    The second graph shows Swedish immigration. The purple line is migration into Sweden





    If it's *all* about immigration, how do you explain why Norway (with very similar immigration trends) has seen these trends:


  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,341
    rcs1000 said:

    Fwiw, I think Sweden has really fucked up its immigration policy, especially in contrast to next door Norway. But there's a lot of hyperbole in some posts...

    How could you have allowed this to happen?! A line neverbefore crossed, gone in an instant...
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    sladeslade Posts: 1,970
    Lab gain in Derbyshire.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,341

    There won't be a mid-Beds by election: Sunak to announce an October GE just before the Tory Party conference, on the basis that 'it's not going to get any better than now'.

    Rishi Sunak - PM from 2022-2023

    or

    Rishi Sunak - PM from 2022-2024

    It still seems an easy choice to me, from his perspective. Party prospects? Eh, why care about that, he might retain his seat but he'll be taking it easy on the backbenches for the next 3-5 years anyway.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 50,693
    That correlation between immigration into Sweden, and murders in Sweden, and rapes/sexual offences in Sweden, is one of the most startling I have ever seen - in terms of nation-scale statistics

    The immigration starts, big time, in about 2012? The surge in rapes, homicides, begins soon after, and follows it with exactitude

    Swedes are not dim. This is presumably why they have started voting for the far right Sweden Democrats, to the extent they are now propping up the Swedish government
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,611
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    And, as an aside, the Polish murder chart is equally interesting:

    https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/POL/poland/murder-homicide-rate

    Did all the murderers leave after they joined the EU?
    Nope: but young men are people who commit murders, and the young men left when they joined the EU.
    The preponderance of young men among those applying for asylum explains a lot of the opposition to it, as well as the different attitude to refugees from Ukraine.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 50,693
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    I mean. Just look at the graphs. The first graph shows swedish sexual offences against women, including rape






    The second graph shows Swedish immigration. The purple line is migration into Sweden





    If it's *all* about immigration, how do you explain why Norway (with very similar immigration trends) has seen these trends:


    I won't argue that detailed point. I don't know the granular facts about Norway and Denmark v Sweden. Clearly - as you say - something has gone uniquely bad with immigration into Sweden. Nonetheless it IS immigration, mainly Muslim (AIUI)

    Perhaps it is the source of the migrants?

    Setting aside Poles (I don't think they are letting off bombs), most recent Swedish immigrants have been from Iraq, Iran, Syria and Somalia, it looks like. Perhaps this is a different profile to Norway? I genuinely dunno

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_Sweden




  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,611

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    And, as an aside, the Polish murder chart is equally interesting:

    https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/POL/poland/murder-homicide-rate

    Did all the murderers leave after they joined the EU?
    Nope: but young men are people who commit murders, and the young men left when they joined the EU.
    The preponderance of young men among those applying for asylum explains a lot of the opposition to it, as well as the different attitude to refugees from Ukraine.
    The numbers are even more lopsided than I thought. Over half of all asylum seekers in the UK last year were males under 30, and the majority of the rest were also male. Females make up less than a quarter overall.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-system-statistics-year-ending-december-2022/how-many-people-do-we-grant-protection-to
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    sladeslade Posts: 1,970
    Lab hold in Caerphilly.
  • Options
    Leon said:

    I mean. Just look at the graphs. The first graph shows swedish sexual offences against women, including rape






    The second graph shows Swedish immigration. The purple line is migration into Sweden





    As every good scientist knows, correlation is causation.

    Bring back piracy to end global warming.

    image
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 50,693

    Leon said:

    I mean. Just look at the graphs. The first graph shows swedish sexual offences against women, including rape






    The second graph shows Swedish immigration. The purple line is migration into Sweden





    As every good scientist knows, correlation is causation.

    Bring back piracy to end global warming.

    image
    Yeah, no, that didn't work, did it?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 50,693
    My task here is done. I shall away and watch Tom Hardy in the marvellous "Taboo" (superbly Gothic, highly recommended)

    A manana

  • Options
    slade said:

    Lab gain in Derbyshire.

    Portent?
  • Options
    sladeslade Posts: 1,970
    slade said:

    Lab hold in Caerphilly.

    A strange result. Lab lost nearly half their vote but Plaid also went backwards.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,432

    On topic, Labour are certainly going full blaze for Mid Beds. A 'personal' email from Labour's candidate has gone out to all members tonight, seeking support both financial and on the doorstep. I don't recall getting one of those for either Selby or Somerton & Frome.

    Yes, I've just signed up for the canvass session emails - they're doing three a day in different part of mid-Beds. Hoping to spend some time there in September.
  • Options
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I mean. Just look at the graphs. The first graph shows swedish sexual offences against women, including rape






    The second graph shows Swedish immigration. The purple line is migration into Sweden





    As every good scientist knows, correlation is causation.

    Bring back piracy to end global warming.

    image
    Yeah, no, that didn't work, did it?
    Well it was designed to be as logical as your post, so what did you expect?

    Could also go with how deadly ice cream is. Ice cream causes shark attacks after all.
  • Options
    ClippPClippP Posts: 1,806
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    On topic, Labour are certainly going full blaze for Mid Beds. A 'personal' email from Labour's candidate has gone out to all members tonight, seeking support both financial and on the doorstep. I don't recall getting one of those for either Selby or Somerton & Frome.

    The problem is Labour just don't have the base to win a seat like Mid Beds. You can see this from the 1997 election result where they only managed 32.5% to the Tories' 46%.
    On the Selby swing Labour would win Mid Beds and Labour were second in the seat in 1997 and 2019, not the LDs
    The swing is Selby is quite irrelevant, young HY. Do you think that the Lib Dems were pulling out all the stops there? They most certainly are in Mid Beds.
  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,730
    kle4 said:

    There won't be a mid-Beds by election: Sunak to announce an October GE just before the Tory Party conference, on the basis that 'it's not going to get any better than now'.

    Rishi Sunak - PM from 2022-2023

    or

    Rishi Sunak - PM from 2022-2024

    It still seems an easy choice to me, from his perspective. Party prospects? Eh, why care about that, he might retain his seat but he'll be taking it easy on the backbenches for the next 3-5 years anyway.
    2022-2025 also available, though I don't expect it.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,611

    Leon said:

    I mean. Just look at the graphs. The first graph shows swedish sexual offences against women, including rape






    The second graph shows Swedish immigration. The purple line is migration into Sweden





    As every good scientist knows, correlation is causation.

    Bring back piracy to end global warming.

    image
    You say that like it's a gotcha, but large-scale piracy would eliminate globalised supply chains so it probably would help the environment.
  • Options
    Leon said:

    That correlation between immigration into Sweden, and murders in Sweden, and rapes/sexual offences in Sweden, is one of the most startling I have ever seen - in terms of nation-scale statistics

    The immigration starts, big time, in about 2012? The surge in rapes, homicides, begins soon after, and follows it with exactitude

    Swedes are not dim. This is presumably why they have started voting for the far right Sweden Democrats, to the extent they are now propping up the Swedish government

    But they don't correlate.

    What is your thesis, and how does the data compare to the thesis? Is your thesis that immigrants cause rapes?

    Why is there a drop-off in rapes at the end of the chart? Is it because there's fewer immigrants in Sweden, if your thesis is that immigrants cause rapes?

    Because no, there aren't fewer immigrants in Sweden. There may be somewhat fewer migrating in the final years, but the ones who already migrated are still there. There are more immigrants in Sweden in the final years than a couple of years earlier, but fewer rapes, so immigration now is reducing rapes by your logic.

    You've correlated a first and second order variable and called them the same. It doesn't work that way.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,341
    carnforth said:

    kle4 said:

    There won't be a mid-Beds by election: Sunak to announce an October GE just before the Tory Party conference, on the basis that 'it's not going to get any better than now'.

    Rishi Sunak - PM from 2022-2023

    or

    Rishi Sunak - PM from 2022-2024

    It still seems an easy choice to me, from his perspective. Party prospects? Eh, why care about that, he might retain his seat but he'll be taking it easy on the backbenches for the next 3-5 years anyway.
    2022-2025 also available, though I don't expect it.
    Only a few months desperate, but clinging on to 2025 is just that extra level of desperation that I think his dignity (no laughter please) would not support it.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,219

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    And, as an aside, the Polish murder chart is equally interesting:

    https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/POL/poland/murder-homicide-rate

    Did all the murderers leave after they joined the EU?
    Nope: but young men are people who commit murders, and the young men left when they joined the EU.
    The preponderance of young men among those applying for asylum explains a lot of the opposition to it, as well as the different attitude to refugees from Ukraine.
    Agree 100%
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,714
    edited August 2023
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The reason Sweden is significant is because of how badly they've managed immigration compared to similar countries like Denmark and Norway.

    That's certainly true. Indeed, it's hard to think of anywhere that has managed to fuck it up so badly.

    And the crazy bit is, the Swedes haven't actually taken that many asylum seekers compared to - say - Spain or Switzerland. And yet, they've managed to ghettoize them and completely fail any kind of assimilation, or fitting in with local norms.
    At the latest count refugees/asylum seekers make up 4.4% of Norways population. Not all immigrants - just refugees/asylum seekers
  • Options

    Leon said:

    I mean. Just look at the graphs. The first graph shows swedish sexual offences against women, including rape






    The second graph shows Swedish immigration. The purple line is migration into Sweden





    As every good scientist knows, correlation is causation.

    Bring back piracy to end global warming.

    image
    All hail the Great Spaghetti Monster
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,219

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The reason Sweden is significant is because of how badly they've managed immigration compared to similar countries like Denmark and Norway.

    That's certainly true. Indeed, it's hard to think of anywhere that has managed to fuck it up so badly.

    And the crazy bit is, the Swedes haven't actually taken that many asylum seekers compared to - say - Spain or Switzerland. And yet, they've managed to ghettoize them and completely fail any kind of assimilation, or fitting in with local norms.
    At the latest count refugees/asylum seekers make up 4.4% of Norways population. Not all immigrants - just refugees/asylum seekers
    It is worth noting that Norway has taken asylum seekers from Poland. As in, Poles who found themselves oppressed by the government there.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,574
    Dreadful front pages for the government . Even its normal cheerleader the DE has jumped ship .

    Operation code red now activated by the no 10 spin machine . It’s migrants fault , the French , leftie lawyers , the blob ....

    This rancid government needs to be put out of its misery . The next GE can’t come soon enough .
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,219

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The reason Sweden is significant is because of how badly they've managed immigration compared to similar countries like Denmark and Norway.

    That's certainly true. Indeed, it's hard to think of anywhere that has managed to fuck it up so badly.

    And the crazy bit is, the Swedes haven't actually taken that many asylum seekers compared to - say - Spain or Switzerland. And yet, they've managed to ghettoize them and completely fail any kind of assimilation, or fitting in with local norms.
    At the latest count refugees/asylum seekers make up 4.4% of Norways population. Not all immigrants - just refugees/asylum seekers
    (Yeah, but I was looking for countries that started with "S" because they scanned better.)
  • Options

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I mean. Just look at the graphs. The first graph shows swedish sexual offences against women, including rape






    The second graph shows Swedish immigration. The purple line is migration into Sweden





    As every good scientist knows, correlation is causation.

    Bring back piracy to end global warming.

    image
    Yeah, no, that didn't work, did it?
    Well it was designed to be as logical as your post, so what did you expect?

    Could also go with how deadly ice cream is. Ice cream causes shark attacks after all.
    And owning a labrador can make you go blind.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 29,878

    Apart from possibly laying the LDs, I don’t at the moment see any outstanding betting opportunity in Mid Beds. Safest bet ATM seems to be not to bet.

    What's the reason for laying the LDs?
  • Options

    Leon said:

    I mean. Just look at the graphs. The first graph shows swedish sexual offences against women, including rape






    The second graph shows Swedish immigration. The purple line is migration into Sweden





    As every good scientist knows, correlation is causation.

    Bring back piracy to end global warming.

    image
    You say that like it's a gotcha, but large-scale piracy would eliminate globalised supply chains so it probably would help the environment.
    The Pirate Code is more what you'd call "guidelines" than actual rules.
    Aaarrrgghhhh!
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,219

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I mean. Just look at the graphs. The first graph shows swedish sexual offences against women, including rape






    The second graph shows Swedish immigration. The purple line is migration into Sweden





    As every good scientist knows, correlation is causation.

    Bring back piracy to end global warming.

    image
    Yeah, no, that didn't work, did it?
    Well it was designed to be as logical as your post, so what did you expect?

    Could also go with how deadly ice cream is. Ice cream causes shark attacks after all.
    And owning a labrador can make you go blind.
    Ah, is that a euphamism?
  • Options
    NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 731
    edited August 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    Apart from possibly laying the LDs, I don’t at the moment see any outstanding betting opportunity in Mid Beds. Safest bet ATM seems to be not to bet.

    What's the reason for laying the LDs?
    The theory espoused by some is that market participants are overestimating their probability of winning, perhaps based on recent by-election successes where they have made a big effort. The difference being that Lab are also making a big effort, and start in 2nd place.
    Laying the LDs obviously also covers the not-inconsiderable chance of the Tories sneaking back in through the middle.
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    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,342

    FPT

    Just paid our first tranche of protection money to Sadiq - two-days' worth of ULEZ charge (£25) to cover our journey from Ilford to my brother's place just the other side of Basildon. We left yesterday and got back an hour or so ago.

    Protection money offers something in return. ULEZ is just extortion
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,117

    ...You've correlated a first and second order variable and called them the same...

    [Lord, I'm glad you spotted that. I missed it. :( ]
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,219

    FPT

    Just paid our first tranche of protection money to Sadiq - two-days' worth of ULEZ charge (£25) to cover our journey from Ilford to my brother's place just the other side of Basildon. We left yesterday and got back an hour or so ago.

    Protection money offers something in return. ULEZ is just extortion
    Not if Sunil paid the money direct to Sadiq...
  • Options

    FPT

    Just paid our first tranche of protection money to Sadiq - two-days' worth of ULEZ charge (£25) to cover our journey from Ilford to my brother's place just the other side of Basildon. We left yesterday and got back an hour or so ago.

    Protection money offers something in return. ULEZ is just extortion
    Surely the point of protection money is precisely that you get nothing in return? It's what you get if you fail to pay that is the issue.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,117
    Andy_JS said:

    Apart from possibly laying the LDs, I don’t at the moment see any outstanding betting opportunity in Mid Beds. Safest bet ATM seems to be not to bet.

    What's the reason for laying the LDs?
    They were third in the election and were third in the last polling in (I think) July. Unless a new poll comes out with them in first or second, there's no reason to think they'll win.
  • Options

    Leon said:

    I mean. Just look at the graphs. The first graph shows swedish sexual offences against women, including rape






    The second graph shows Swedish immigration. The purple line is migration into Sweden





    As every good scientist knows, correlation is causation.

    Bring back piracy to end global warming.

    image
    You say that like it's a gotcha, but large-scale piracy would eliminate globalised supply chains so it probably would help the environment.
    And extreme weather events from climate change presumably make piracy a less attractive career option

  • Options

    FPT

    Just paid our first tranche of protection money to Sadiq - two-days' worth of ULEZ charge (£25) to cover our journey from Ilford to my brother's place just the other side of Basildon. We left yesterday and got back an hour or so ago.

    Protection money offers something in return. ULEZ is just extortion
    Surely the point of protection money is precisely that you get nothing in return? It's what you get if you fail to pay that is the issue.
    Protection money is about proving a negative - if you pay up then you won’t get beaten up… if you don’t then we won’t protect you…




  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 29,878
    edited September 2023
    O/T

    BBC More Or Less programme. Around 22 min, 50 secs.

    "China has emitted more CO2 in the last 8 years than the UK has done since 1750".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001q0s6
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,301
    edited September 2023

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    I mean. Just look at the graphs. The first graph shows swedish sexual offences against women, including rape






    The second graph shows Swedish immigration. The purple line is migration into Sweden





    If it's *all* about immigration, how do you explain why Norway (with very similar immigration trends) has seen these trends:


    I won't argue that detailed point. I don't know the granular facts about Norway and Denmark v Sweden. Clearly - as you say - something has gone uniquely bad with immigration into Sweden. Nonetheless it IS immigration, mainly Muslim (AIUI)

    Perhaps it is the source of the migrants?

    Setting aside Poles (I don't think they are letting off bombs), most recent Swedish immigrants have been from Iraq, Iran, Syria and Somalia, it looks like. Perhaps this is a different profile to Norway? I genuinely dunno

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_Sweden




    I would suggest that - as I have said before - it is not to do with where the immigrants come from but how they are hanlded once they arrive in the country. There are very large numbers of immigrants arriving in Norway from the countries you mention. The difference is that the Norwegian Government has what you might call a 'tough love' system. Anyone wanting to settle in Norway has to undertake 300 hours (up from 200 hours when I worked there) of compulsory Norwegian language and culture lessons. Even if you are doing a couple of hours every single week that is still nearly 3 years of compulsory lessons.

    And asylum seekers are not allowed to just live anywhere. To avoid the formation of ghettos or areas of dominant immigrant population they are told which county they have to live in for the first few years.

    The system works. I have never been in a country where the immigrant population was so well integrated. And it is a ciculcular thing. Because the integration is so good the acceptance of large numbers of immigrants is very high amongst the Norwegian population in general. So the immigrants feel more welcome and so there is a much better relationship.

    Of course I am sure it is nopt all plain sailing all the time and sadly you still get lunatics like Anders Brevik. But as I said at the time - indeed I think in conversation with you - it is ironic that he was railing against immigration when Norway is one of the most integrated countries in Europe - and thoroughly Norwegian.
    Some societies are going to have to study Norway's success as a matter of some urgency.

    🇰🇷 South Korea fertility rate:

    2015: 1.24
    2016: 1.17
    2017: 1.05
    2018: 0.98
    2019: 0.92
    2020: 0.84
    2021: 0.81
    2022: 0.78
    2023: 0.70


    Of course being a very wealthy country probably helps, too.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,301
    Ukraine. Everybody is very pro-Ukrainian, across the political spectrum, but also concerned not to jeopardise Switzerland's neutrality. So the government's rather two-faced policy of selling Germany tanks that Germany then passes on to Ukraine has broad support...

    They've sold a small number of (German) tanks back to Germany, on the understanding that they won't be used in Ukraine.
    And refused a recent request for a larger number
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    The LDs are clearly worried as they're trying to force the earliest possible by-election:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66671397
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    franklyn said:

    Well eat your heart out kim jong-un, the BMA junior voted over 98% for extending their industrial action.

    And well done to the BMA. This is a battle to save the NHS. If any of you actually want to have a functioning NHS, now is the time to support them.

    In the same way that rail unions always claim its about passenger safety medical unions claim it's about saving the NHS.

    In both instances it will actually be about pay and jobs.
This discussion has been closed.