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Mid Beds could go CON, LAB or LD – politicalbetting.com

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  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310

    Cyclefree said:

    A genuine question from me on the RAAC issue.

    I thought under Labour's PFI schemes, loads of money was spent doing up schools, rebuilding infrastructure etc.,. So how come schools are now at risk of falling down because of dodgy and/or inadequate concrete?

    I don't know much about this but AFAIK RAAC was last used in the early 90s, so presumably Major's government blocked it being used anymore in around that time period before Labour's PFI kicked in.

    These schools affected now were probably relatively "new" when Labour took over so weren't the ones PFI affected.
    Thanks.

    I thought PFI had been used to refurbish existing schools not just build new ones.

    Is that not the case?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ...
    Cyclefree said:

    A genuine question from me on the RAAC issue.

    I thought under Labour's PFI schemes, loads of money was spent doing up schools, rebuilding infrastructure etc.,. So how come schools are now at risk of falling down because of dodgy and/or inadequate concrete?

    Nice try.

    Whereas it is certainly nothing to do with the current government. NoSiree! I don't believe you can pin this one on Blair. Wilson and Callaghan, yes. So you are right it is a Labour generated problem, but from a different era. Much like Attlee and Bevan should be up in front of the Health Select Committee to explain the current mess that is the NHS, had they not died decades ago.

    P.S. I suspect the current furore relates to an issue that has been known about for many years which only comes to a head a few days before term is due to start. But blame Wilson and Callaghan by all means.
  • kjh said:

    I'm going to be hobnobbing with royalty today. Never done that before. Handy when you know someone, who knows someone, who knows someone. I have just been told to arrive 30 minutes later than planned as otherwise it will conflict with the security for the royals. I suggested they wait, but that was apparently not acceptable.

    On behalf of the PB teachers, ask if we should back the King & Queen's horse, Educator, at Sandown Park tomorrow.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    A genuine question from me on the RAAC issue.

    I thought under Labour's PFI schemes, loads of money was spent doing up schools, rebuilding infrastructure etc.,. So how come schools are now at risk of falling down because of dodgy and/or inadequate concrete?

    I don't know much about this but AFAIK RAAC was last used in the early 90s, so presumably Major's government blocked it being used anymore in around that time period before Labour's PFI kicked in.

    These schools affected now were probably relatively "new" when Labour took over so weren't the ones PFI affected.
    Thanks.

    I thought PFI had been used to refurbish existing schools not just build new ones.

    Is that not the case?
    It is, but it wasn't to refurbish all existing schools.

    In the 90s schools built in the 80s probably wouldn't have been a priority, ones built in the 50s might have been.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    edited September 2023

    kjh said:

    I'm going to be hobnobbing with royalty today. Never done that before. Handy when you know someone, who knows someone, who knows someone. I have just been told to arrive 30 minutes later than planned as otherwise it will conflict with the security for the royals. I suggested they wait, but that was apparently not acceptable.

    On behalf of the PB teachers, ask if we should back the King & Queen's horse, Educator, at Sandown Park tomorrow.
    Will do :smiley:

    Any other requests while we are at it?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    104 schools affected.
    Daily Mail has a list of about a dozen.
    Presumably, these are the weird ones which went back this week?
    This will be big news on Monday. Can't believe parents at the other 80+ have been informed and yet not contacted news outlets.

    Ferryhill have just announced they will be online learning for everyone after a weeks delay

    https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/23760219.ferryhill-school-delays-term-raac-found-buildings/

    This is going to play very badly for the Government due to the incredibly bad timing.
    Mmm.
    My eye was caught by this other Echo story.

    https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/23758829.weeing-man-says-im-off-beer-fall-matlon/
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    edited September 2023

    kjh said:

    I'm going to be hobnobbing with royalty today. Never done that before. Handy when you know someone, who knows someone, who knows someone. I have just been told to arrive 30 minutes later than planned as otherwise it will conflict with the security for the royals. I suggested they wait, but that was apparently not acceptable.

    On behalf of the PB teachers, ask if we should back the King & Queen's horse, Educator, at Sandown Park tomorrow.
    I suspect it may fall down.
    Or be moved to run on a nearby highway verge as a temporary safety measure.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310
    edited September 2023

    ...

    Cyclefree said:

    A genuine question from me on the RAAC issue.

    I thought under Labour's PFI schemes, loads of money was spent doing up schools, rebuilding infrastructure etc.,. So how come schools are now at risk of falling down because of dodgy and/or inadequate concrete?

    Nice try.

    Whereas it is certainly nothing to do with the current government. NoSiree! I don't believe you can pin this one on Blair. Wilson and Callaghan, yes. So you are right it is a Labour generated problem, but from a different era. Much like Attlee and Bevan should be up in front of the Health Select Committee to explain the current mess that is the NHS, had they not died decades ago.

    P.S. I suspect the current furore relates to an issue that has been known about for many years which only comes to a head a few days before term is due to start. But blame Wilson and Callaghan by all means.
    It was a genuine question not a political point. I am not blaming anyone. And as you well know the Tories have been in power for longer than Labour in the post war years so if it's down to previous governments they are probably as responsible as anyone else.


    I don't know anything about PFI and schools but am puzzled at how such a problem has arisen if lots of money was spent on schools. Maybe it was spent on different things. Or only on new schools. I'm genuinely curious about what PFI was spent on.

    And how it is that this has only arisen now. Is there not a regular maintenance programme?

    I am a trustee of a school and one of the matters we regular consider when setting budgets is maintenance and refurbishment costs - and I'm not just talking about internal decoration either.

    But make your silly political points if it makes you feel better.
  • ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    This RAAC thing seems like a nightmare. I expect schools are just the tip of the iceberg, googling it seems social housing built in the 50s - 80s might be affected too, possibly some hospitals and a smattering of private buildings too ?
    Probably some asbestos nearby too...

    Looks like the building equivalent of an aero bar.

    I'd be most worried about tower blocks and bridges.

    However, the latter seem to have preferred reinforced concrete, and of the former quite a number have been demolished.
    RAAC isn't a heavyweight structural material - that was its point. Concrete bridges don't, generally, need the light weight.
    They also don't need the thermal insulation that the trapped air bubbles gave. Same physics as the woolly jumpers worn by that Scandinavian lady detective on BBC4.

    RAAC's not an inherently bad material if you accept that it won't last forever. Whether that is acceptable is another matter.
    If only someone hadn't cancelled the school rebuilding programme back in 2010.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    A genuine question from me on the RAAC issue.

    I thought under Labour's PFI schemes, loads of money was spent doing up schools, rebuilding infrastructure etc.,. So how come schools are now at risk of falling down because of dodgy and/or inadequate concrete?

    I don't know much about this but AFAIK RAAC was last used in the early 90s, so presumably Major's government blocked it being used anymore in around that time period before Labour's PFI kicked in.

    These schools affected now were probably relatively "new" when Labour took over so weren't the ones PFI affected.
    Thanks.

    I thought PFI had been used to refurbish existing schools not just build new ones.

    Is that not the case?
    It is, but it wasn't to refurbish all existing schools.

    In the 90s schools built in the 80s probably wouldn't have been a priority, ones built in the 50s might have been.
    Thanks.

    Putting children back into online learning at the last minute - especially after the lost Covid years - is awful. God knows what it will take to make these schools safe but we have to do it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    Yes, what an exciting byelection we have here in Mid Beds. Well timed too for Lab and LD because it will highlight the importance of tactical voting for the upcoming GE. Either it will happen and the Cons will lose the seat or it won't and they'll hold it. Both will serve as a lesson for next year, the first showing what to do, the second what not to do.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454
    Cyclefree said:

    A genuine question from me on the RAAC issue.

    I thought under Labour's PFI schemes, loads of money was spent doing up schools, rebuilding infrastructure etc.,. So how come schools are now at risk of falling down because of dodgy and/or inadequate concrete?

    12 years liability under a construction contract as standard…

    Longer for latent defects but at time of specification etc it is likely RAAC was considered appropriate, so unlikely to be negligence.

    PFI project companies are SPVs are unlikely to have sufficient assets for complete rebuilds.

    You can see the problem
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454
    If any of these schools are PFI schools then the contract holders will likely be able to claim that the facility or areas of the facility are “unavailable” and therefore withhold significant amounts from the monthly charge…
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    A genuine question from me on the RAAC issue.

    I thought under Labour's PFI schemes, loads of money was spent doing up schools, rebuilding infrastructure etc.,. So how come schools are now at risk of falling down because of dodgy and/or inadequate concrete?

    I don't know much about this but AFAIK RAAC was last used in the early 90s, so presumably Major's government blocked it being used anymore in around that time period before Labour's PFI kicked in.

    These schools affected now were probably relatively "new" when Labour took over so weren't the ones PFI affected.
    Thanks.

    I thought PFI had been used to refurbish existing schools not just build new ones.

    Is that not the case?
    It is, but it wasn't to refurbish all existing schools.

    In the 90s schools built in the 80s probably wouldn't have been a priority, ones built in the 50s might have been.
    Thanks.

    Putting children back into online learning at the last minute - especially after the lost Covid years - is awful. God knows what it will take to make these schools safe but we have to do it.
    You will need the building rebuilt - as this concrete will be a fundamental part of the structure.

    That isn't going to be quick even if you got building firms to stop current work immediately ignored all planning and started work immediately.

    Plus a lot of the contractors who do this sort of work have big finance issues at the moment anyway. There are a lot of paused projects at the moment due to the main contractor going bankrupt.
  • The sudden closure of schools may be unavoidable but children having to stay at home isn’t. Is it really impossible to find alternative accommodation for at least the primary schools at short notice? Secondary school sports halls could be commandeered and converted to open plan classrooms. Or the independent schools could ask Tabitha and Lucien to shove up a bit and let state school pupils into the classroom for a while.
  • Cyclefree said:

    ...

    Cyclefree said:

    A genuine question from me on the RAAC issue.

    I thought under Labour's PFI schemes, loads of money was spent doing up schools, rebuilding infrastructure etc.,. So how come schools are now at risk of falling down because of dodgy and/or inadequate concrete?

    Nice try.

    Whereas it is certainly nothing to do with the current government. NoSiree! I don't believe you can pin this one on Blair. Wilson and Callaghan, yes. So you are right it is a Labour generated problem, but from a different era. Much like Attlee and Bevan should be up in front of the Health Select Committee to explain the current mess that is the NHS, had they not died decades ago.

    P.S. I suspect the current furore relates to an issue that has been known about for many years which only comes to a head a few days before term is due to start. But blame Wilson and Callaghan by all means.
    It was a genuine question not a political point. I am not blaming anyone. And as you well know the Tories have been in power for longer than Labour in the post war years so if it's down to previous governments they are probably as responsible as anyone else.


    I don't know anything about PFI and schools but am puzzled at how such a problem has arisen if lots of money was spent on schools. Maybe it was spent on different things. Or only on new schools. I'm genuinely curious about what PFI was spent on.

    And how it is that this has only arisen now. Is there not a regular maintenance programme?

    I am a trustee of a school and one of the matters we regular consider when setting budgets is maintenance and refurbishment costs - and I'm not just talking about internal decoration either.

    But make your silly political points if it makes you feel better.
    There's a lot of schools, BSF was intended as a long term thing, and it was killed before it really got started.

    (About 3500 secondary schools in total, a few hundred of which got rebuilt.)

    There was lots wrong with BSF- terrible bureaucracy and new buildings with too much fur coat and not enough knickers. But rather than replace it with an efficient scheme it was replaced with very little. Because it's always cheaper to eke out the design life and maintenance schedules, and usually you get away with it.

    Usually.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    If any of these schools are PFI schools then the contract holders will likely be able to claim that the facility or areas of the facility are “unavailable” and therefore withhold significant amounts from the monthly charge…

    Since the government won't tell us the schools, we can't know.
    But it's handy for them PFI is in the discussion, isn't it?
    Ferryhill School was opened in 1964.
    So planning, design and construction would have all been under the Party in power from 1951 to 1964.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    On topic. Surely the imminent constituency polls of mid Bedfordshire will end the LibDem Labour standoff, hurtle one of them into light campaigning mode, inform the voters what the clear tactical vote is, thus placing the Tory’s in greater peril, and change the betting completely?

    Crumbling Schools. Why a news story now, last week of august? My mum is right in this one, the Tory’s are being stitched up by The Blob yet again.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    Cyclefree said:

    A genuine question from me on the RAAC issue.

    I thought under Labour's PFI schemes, loads of money was spent doing up schools, rebuilding infrastructure etc.,. So how come schools are now at risk of falling down because of dodgy and/or inadequate concrete?

    AIUI the issue affects 1950s-90s buildings. Presumably Labour didn't rebuild schools that had just been built?
    And if the Tories hadn't scrapped school rebuilding schemes in 2010 presumably more of these buildings would have come due for rebuilding over the subsequent decade?
    They'd all just have gone bust instead:

    https://schoolsweek.co.uk/toxic-pfi-bills-cripple-schools/

    Has to be said, incidentally, that the average build quality under BSF was so poor that many of the buildings put up just 15 years ago also now have very serious and costly maintenance problems. That has included structural collapses.

    The truth is that we've spent 75 years building bad stuff cheaply and then wondered why it's not good or long lasting.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    A genuine question from me on the RAAC issue.

    I thought under Labour's PFI schemes, loads of money was spent doing up schools, rebuilding infrastructure etc.,. So how come schools are now at risk of falling down because of dodgy and/or inadequate concrete?

    I don't know much about this but AFAIK RAAC was last used in the early 90s, so presumably Major's government blocked it being used anymore in around that time period before Labour's PFI kicked in.

    These schools affected now were probably relatively "new" when Labour took over so weren't the ones PFI affected.
    Thanks.

    I thought PFI had been used to refurbish existing schools not just build new ones.

    Is that not the case?
    Yes, but very often 'refurbish' didn't include removing the old structure, just plastering over the rubbish.
  • TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Morning everyone! Seems very autumnal here. Summer was about three days in June, it seems!

    Morning OKC hope you are well, yes, most chilly down here in semi-rural Durham too.

    It is going to get cooler before it gets warmer !!!
    If I remember correctly from my time on the industrial coast of County Durham it won’t really be warm again until May at the earliest!
    Nobody watching the weather models, or even the short term forecast?

    Nudging 30C by Monday in the South. Into the mid 20s next week even in the North.

    Meanwhile Western France could get 2 or 3 consecutive days above 40C. Unprecedented for September.

    All thanks to the active Atlantic hurricane season which is pumping up high pressure to the east of the storms.
    Early to mid 20’s round here in dry Essex according to the forecast.
    Its been a very cool summer round the Eastern side of the country. None of the horrible hot nights I am used to each year. It might be nice to actually have a bit of warmer weather.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786

    Star Sports' The Polling Station on Mid-Beds
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTDd1NL8Mc4

    From the description:-
    William Kedjanyi and Paul Krishnamurty are joined by Chairman of Central Bedfordshire Council Gareth Mackey [standing as Independent] for a Mid Bedfordshire by-election special following the official resignation of Nadine Dorries!

    Gareth gives us the inside track on his preparation, campaign strategy and his views on The Tories, Labour and Lib Dems!

    Chapters:
    0:00 Intro
    0:45 Gareth’s Intro
    2:04 Mid Bedfordshire Seat Profile
    5:32 Are these independents politically aligned?
    9:01 I want to reset
    12:02 How much money are you spending?
    14:38 What issues will cut through?
    16:30 YIMBY or NIMBY?
    19:08 Gareth’s Big Rivals
    20:00 Tories with no chance?
    21:36 Different interests for different communities?
    25:31 What data are you working with?
    29:45 Market Movers
    30:58 Paul’s overall view
    34:20 Nadine Dorries
    38:48 Latest Betting
    39:37 Paul’s closing thoughts
    40:52 Will’s closing thoughts
    42:09 Gareth’s closing thoughts

    Thanks for that. Appreciated.
  • kjh said:

    I'm going to be hobnobbing with royalty today. Never done that before. Handy when you know someone, who knows someone, who knows someone. I have just been told to arrive 30 minutes later than planned as otherwise it will conflict with the security for the royals. I suggested they wait, but that was apparently not acceptable.

    Don't forget to tug yer forelock and doff yer cap. Maybe throw in a curtsey or two, just to be sure.
  • ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    A genuine question from me on the RAAC issue.

    I thought under Labour's PFI schemes, loads of money was spent doing up schools, rebuilding infrastructure etc.,. So how come schools are now at risk of falling down because of dodgy and/or inadequate concrete?

    I don't know much about this but AFAIK RAAC was last used in the early 90s, so presumably Major's government blocked it being used anymore in around that time period before Labour's PFI kicked in.

    These schools affected now were probably relatively "new" when Labour took over so weren't the ones PFI affected.
    Thanks.

    I thought PFI had been used to refurbish existing schools not just build new ones.

    Is that not the case?
    Yes, but very often 'refurbish' didn't include removing the old structure, just plastering over the rubbish.
    Bloody typical isn't it. Hardly any of the rubbish schools (structurally) from the 60s get knocked down and rebuilt and one of the few that does is my old Comp. I was really sad the day they tore it down. Lots of good memories. The new one is a big box that holds no sentimental value for me at all. Of course it wa snecessary but it still hurts.

    Definitely a sense of hiraeth (a wonderful Welsh word I am sure you appreciate) every time I drive by.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    On topic. Surely the imminent constituency polls of mid Bedfordshire will end the LibDem Labour standoff, hurtle one of them into light campaigning mode, inform the voters what the clear tactical vote is, thus placing the Tory’s in greater peril, and change the betting completely?

    Crumbling Schools. Why a news story now, last week of august? My mum is right in this one, the Tory’s are being stitched up by The Blob yet again.

    Judging by the member comms I've had Labour are going for this one. I think they have to. The upside is enormous if they pull it off. It will point to a possible landslide at the GE. And if they don't and a split vote lets the Tories in, well that will serve as a great lesson for next year. Ditto if a critical mass of anti-tory voters decide to ignore the Labour effort and elect a LD instead. That's also a great lesson for next year. Any which way the political calculus says that Labour have to try and win this byelection.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    dixiedean said:

    Just when you imagine the DfE can't be any less competent...
    "The government will cover all capital costs" of relocation.
    I should imagine that will be a minuscule proportion of the total bill.

    Just been reading the Graun feed. Interesting that the Minister thinks hiring/buying Portakabins is a "capital" investment.

    'Asked on Sky News who will pay if schools need to either fully or partially relocate, Nick Gibb said: “We will pay for that. We’ve made it very clear we will cover all capital costs.

    “So if in the worst-case scenario, we need portacabins in the school estate for an alternative accommodation, we will cover all those costs. So there has been some speculation that we won’t cover those costs. We absolutely will.”

    Asked whether all schools affected have now been informed, Gibb said: “The vast majority have. We have been calling them yesterday, but there are a few more that we’re calling today, and those schools are now talking to parents about what’s going to happen in their school.”'
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited September 2023
    Cyclefree said:

    ...

    Cyclefree said:

    A genuine question from me on the RAAC issue.

    I thought under Labour's PFI schemes, loads of money was spent doing up schools, rebuilding infrastructure etc.,. So how come schools are now at risk of falling down because of dodgy and/or inadequate concrete?

    Nice try.

    Whereas it is certainly nothing to do with the current government. NoSiree! I don't believe you can pin this one on Blair. Wilson and Callaghan, yes. So you are right it is a Labour generated problem, but from a different era. Much like Attlee and Bevan should be up in front of the Health Select Committee to explain the current mess that is the NHS, had they not died decades ago.

    P.S. I suspect the current furore relates to an issue that has been known about for many years which only comes to a head a few days before term is due to start. But blame Wilson and Callaghan by all means.
    It was a genuine question not a political point. I am not blaming anyone. And as you well know the Tories have been in power for longer than Labour in the post war years so if it's down to previous governments they are probably as responsible as anyone else.


    I don't know anything about PFI and schools but am puzzled at how such a problem has arisen if lots of money was spent on schools. Maybe it was spent on different things. Or only on new schools. I'm genuinely curious about what PFI was spent on.

    And how it is that this has only arisen now. Is there not a regular maintenance programme?

    I am a trustee of a school and one of the matters we regular consider when setting budgets is maintenance and refurbishment costs - and I'm not just talking about internal decoration either.

    But make your silly political points if it makes you feel better.
    I was being flippant, and for that I should apologise.

    I am not particularly fond of the Labour Party, particularly living here in Wales. But wouldn't it be fantastic if a centrist party based around LibDem ideology could replace them before the next GE. Unfortunately that isn't going to happen so we are lumbered with the hopeless Starmer as opposed to any number of even more hopeless and venal Conservative Prime Ministerial options.

    You are right about my "silly political points", I detest the current Conservative Government, and to be honest, almost everything they have done to our country since 2010, and certainly since 2016, including Gove's shelving of a programme to rebuild 719 schools in 2010.

    https://www.architectsjournal.co.uk/
  • ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    A genuine question from me on the RAAC issue.

    I thought under Labour's PFI schemes, loads of money was spent doing up schools, rebuilding infrastructure etc.,. So how come schools are now at risk of falling down because of dodgy and/or inadequate concrete?

    AIUI the issue affects 1950s-90s buildings. Presumably Labour didn't rebuild schools that had just been built?
    And if the Tories hadn't scrapped school rebuilding schemes in 2010 presumably more of these buildings would have come due for rebuilding over the subsequent decade?
    They'd all just have gone bust instead:

    https://schoolsweek.co.uk/toxic-pfi-bills-cripple-schools/

    Has to be said, incidentally, that the average build quality under BSF was so poor that many of the buildings put up just 15 years ago also now have very serious and costly maintenance problems. That has included structural collapses.

    The truth is that we've spent 75 years building bad stuff cheaply and then wondered why it's not good or long lasting.
    The truth is worse than that.

    If we'd built bad stuff cheaply, then it wouldn't so bad. We could replace it with other cheap materials cheaply.

    Cheap prefab buildings might not be designed to last, they might depreciate, but if they cost a fraction of the cost and can be quickly and easily replaced, then that's not a problem.

    Getting a building that lasts 30 years but costs 25% of the price is good value for money. Especially if in 25 years time when you start thinking about replacing it, the specs have improved so the next 30 years your replacement prefab will be even higher quality, with better insulation/earthquake resistance whatever your priority is.

    The problem is we've build bad stuff in an expensive manner, by cutting corners only in the margins.

    Paying 95% of the cost, for 30% of the quality, is not a bargain.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    kinabalu said:

    On topic. Surely the imminent constituency polls of mid Bedfordshire will end the LibDem Labour standoff, hurtle one of them into light campaigning mode, inform the voters what the clear tactical vote is, thus placing the Tory’s in greater peril, and change the betting completely?

    Crumbling Schools. Why a news story now, last week of august? My mum is right in this one, the Tory’s are being stitched up by The Blob yet again.

    Judging by the member comms I've had Labour are going for this one. I think they have to. The upside is enormous if they pull it off. It will point to a possible landslide at the GE. And if they don't and a split vote lets the Tories in, well that will serve as a great lesson for next year. Ditto if a critical mass of anti-tory voters decide to ignore the Labour effort and elect a LD instead. That's also a great lesson for next year. Any which way the political calculus says that Labour have to try and win this byelection.
    “if they [Labour] pull it off. It will point to a possible landslide at the GE”

    No it won’t. It’s daft to be convinced of that. By-elections and the GE vote itself are two completely different things. For evidence, look at the 1992, Labour win a by-election on eve of the election they couldn’t hold weeks later in the GE.

    MB is interesting to us psephologists in that there’s lots of places at the next election where Lib plus Lab totals convincingly eclipse the Tory winning score, if tactical voting isn’t precise enough - but I suspect constituency polls will guide the tactical voters more so than how hard Lab and Lib are going for it there. In fact more than that, there may be Constituency polling in the run up to the GE commissioned just for Lib Dem or Labour eyes only, psephologist and political betting won’t ever see.

    MB is also interesting to psephology for another reason. If it does come down to just one clear challenger for the Tories, but the Tories hold on, what are the reasons for the Tory win. Ulez? Or is it a constituency with lot of pensioners, so it’s a safe Grey Wall seat for the Tories, come whatever kind of election.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    edited September 2023
    Any schools in Mid -Beds effected by the dodgy concrete .

    Could add a bit more spice to the already confused picture there .
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786

    kjh said:

    I'm going to be hobnobbing with royalty today. Never done that before. Handy when you know someone, who knows someone, who knows someone. I have just been told to arrive 30 minutes later than planned as otherwise it will conflict with the security for the royals. I suggested they wait, but that was apparently not acceptable.

    Don't forget to tug yer forelock and doff yer cap. Maybe throw in a curtsey or two, just to be sure.
    Not me, ever.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,376
    edited September 2023

    Cyclefree said:

    ...

    Cyclefree said:

    A genuine question from me on the RAAC issue.

    I thought under Labour's PFI schemes, loads of money was spent doing up schools, rebuilding infrastructure etc.,. So how come schools are now at risk of falling down because of dodgy and/or inadequate concrete?

    Nice try.

    Whereas it is certainly nothing to do with the current government. NoSiree! I don't believe you can pin this one on Blair. Wilson and Callaghan, yes. So you are right it is a Labour generated problem, but from a different era. Much like Attlee and Bevan should be up in front of the Health Select Committee to explain the current mess that is the NHS, had they not died decades ago.

    P.S. I suspect the current furore relates to an issue that has been known about for many years which only comes to a head a few days before term is due to start. But blame Wilson and Callaghan by all means.
    It was a genuine question not a political point. I am not blaming anyone. And as you well know the Tories have been in power for longer than Labour in the post war years so if it's down to previous governments they are probably as responsible as anyone else.


    I don't know anything about PFI and schools but am puzzled at how such a problem has arisen if lots of money was spent on schools. Maybe it was spent on different things. Or only on new schools. I'm genuinely curious about what PFI was spent on.

    And how it is that this has only arisen now. Is there not a regular maintenance programme?

    I am a trustee of a school and one of the matters we regular consider when setting budgets is maintenance and refurbishment costs - and I'm not just talking about internal decoration either.

    But make your silly political points if it makes you feel better.
    I was being flippant, and for that I should apologise.

    I am not particularly fond of the Labour Party, particularly living here in Wales. But wouldn't it be fantastic if a centrist party based around LibDem ideology could replace them before the next GE. Unfortunately that isn't going to happen so we are lumbered with the hopeless Starmer as opposed to any number of even more hopeless and venal Conservative Prime Ministerial options.

    You are right about my "silly political points", I detest the current Conservative Government, and to be honest, almost everything they have done to our country since 2010, and certainly since 2016, including Gove's shelving of a programme to rebuild 719 schools in 2010.

    https://www.architectsjournal.co.uk/
    "I am not particularly fond of the Labour Party, particularly living here in Wales. But wouldn't it be fantastic if a centrist party based around LibDem ideology could replace them before the next GE."

    QTWTAIN !!!!

    Fortunately it will never happen. A party of NIMBY centrist Dad types. No thanks
  • Anecdotally my own kids (state) primary school has had a lot of structural work done on it in recent years. For most of the last year or so its had scaffolding around it and they've been replacing the entire roof. They've been quite methodical going room from room cutting out a section and replacing it so only one class at a time needs moving elsewhere in the building while they do it.

    I wonder if this is related to this drama? And if they've avoided closure by dealing with it in the nick of time? Or if its something entirely unrelated?

    I'm also curious how the renovation budgets are determined and distributed. If it was this, why were ours done and others not?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    nico679 said:

    Any schools in Mid -Beds effected by the dodgy concrete .

    Could add a bit more spice to the already confused picture there .

    Well.
    We won't know till Monday it seems, since the government won't tell us.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    edited September 2023
    dixiedean said:

    nico679 said:

    Any schools in Mid -Beds effected by the dodgy concrete .

    Could add a bit more spice to the already confused picture there .

    Well.
    We won't know till Monday it seems, since the government won't tell us.
    Presumably the Counties already know? Since WBC have already come out and said that none of theirs are affected.

    In which case, the Counties that aren't saying anything yet - perhaps we can gleam something from their silence?
  • theakestheakes Posts: 930
    It is the Independent vote that will swing it, it will probable collapse and the bulk should go to the Lib Dems, that should be enough for them to in. I think you overate the Labour campaign, on the ground they cannot compete with the Lib Dems but over the4 air ways they come over great, but it is misleading, people respond to what comes through their doors, almost daily from the LD's!
    I hear that during the period of Nadine's lingering doubt the LD's contacted 40,000+ folk, that is what counts.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    A genuine question from me on the RAAC issue.

    I thought under Labour's PFI schemes, loads of money was spent doing up schools, rebuilding infrastructure etc.,. So how come schools are now at risk of falling down because of dodgy and/or inadequate concrete?

    I don't know much about this but AFAIK RAAC was last used in the early 90s, so presumably Major's government blocked it being used anymore in around that time period before Labour's PFI kicked in.

    These schools affected now were probably relatively "new" when Labour took over so weren't the ones PFI affected.
    Thanks.

    I thought PFI had been used to refurbish existing schools not just build new ones.

    Is that not the case?
    Yes, but very often 'refurbish' didn't include removing the old structure, just plastering over the rubbish.
    Bloody typical isn't it. Hardly any of the rubbish schools (structurally) from the 60s get knocked down and rebuilt and one of the few that does is my old Comp. I was really sad the day they tore it down. Lots of good memories. The new one is a big box that holds no sentimental value for me at all. Of course it wa snecessary but it still hurts.

    Definitely a sense of hiraeth (a wonderful Welsh word I am sure you appreciate) every time I drive by.
    That is indeed a brilliant word. It is a state of mind almost everyone over 40 will instantly recognise.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    edited September 2023

    dixiedean said:

    nico679 said:

    Any schools in Mid -Beds effected by the dodgy concrete .

    Could add a bit more spice to the already confused picture there .

    Well.
    We won't know till Monday it seems, since the government won't tell us.
    Presumably the Counties already know? Since WBC have already come out and said that none of theirs are affected.

    In which case, the Counties that aren't saying anything yet - perhaps we can gleam something from their silence?
    I suppose that is the logical conclusion.
    I'm a little confused by this though.
    LA's don't run that many schools right now. When they say none of ours, do they mean none in our area, or none of ours?*

    *I don't expect you, or anyone else to be able to answer that question.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    A genuine question from me on the RAAC issue.

    I thought under Labour's PFI schemes, loads of money was spent doing up schools, rebuilding infrastructure etc.,. So how come schools are now at risk of falling down because of dodgy and/or inadequate concrete?

    I don't know much about this but AFAIK RAAC was last used in the early 90s, so presumably Major's government blocked it being used anymore in around that time period before Labour's PFI kicked in.

    These schools affected now were probably relatively "new" when Labour took over so weren't the ones PFI affected.
    Thanks.

    I thought PFI had been used to refurbish existing schools not just build new ones.

    Is that not the case?
    Building Schools for the Future hardly got going.
    I was a school governor at the time, and funding dried up all of a sudden.
    Over ambitious and not brilliantly managed, I think.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Taz said:

    Cyclefree said:

    ...

    Cyclefree said:

    A genuine question from me on the RAAC issue.

    I thought under Labour's PFI schemes, loads of money was spent doing up schools, rebuilding infrastructure etc.,. So how come schools are now at risk of falling down because of dodgy and/or inadequate concrete?

    Nice try.

    Whereas it is certainly nothing to do with the current government. NoSiree! I don't believe you can pin this one on Blair. Wilson and Callaghan, yes. So you are right it is a Labour generated problem, but from a different era. Much like Attlee and Bevan should be up in front of the Health Select Committee to explain the current mess that is the NHS, had they not died decades ago.

    P.S. I suspect the current furore relates to an issue that has been known about for many years which only comes to a head a few days before term is due to start. But blame Wilson and Callaghan by all means.
    It was a genuine question not a political point. I am not blaming anyone. And as you well know the Tories have been in power for longer than Labour in the post war years so if it's down to previous governments they are probably as responsible as anyone else.


    I don't know anything about PFI and schools but am puzzled at how such a problem has arisen if lots of money was spent on schools. Maybe it was spent on different things. Or only on new schools. I'm genuinely curious about what PFI was spent on.

    And how it is that this has only arisen now. Is there not a regular maintenance programme?

    I am a trustee of a school and one of the matters we regular consider when setting budgets is maintenance and refurbishment costs - and I'm not just talking about internal decoration either.

    But make your silly political points if it makes you feel better.
    I was being flippant, and for that I should apologise.

    I am not particularly fond of the Labour Party, particularly living here in Wales. But wouldn't it be fantastic if a centrist party based around LibDem ideology could replace them before the next GE. Unfortunately that isn't going to happen so we are lumbered with the hopeless Starmer as opposed to any number of even more hopeless and venal Conservative Prime Ministerial options.

    You are right about my "silly political points", I detest the current Conservative Government, and to be honest, almost everything they have done to our country since 2010, and certainly since 2016, including Gove's shelving of a programme to rebuild 719 schools in 2010.

    https://www.architectsjournal.co.uk/
    "I am not particularly fond of the Labour Party, particularly living here in Wales. But wouldn't it be fantastic if a centrist party based around LibDem ideology could replace them before the next GE."

    QTWTAIN !!!!

    Fortunately it will never happen. A party of NIMBY centrist Dad types. No thanks
    "A party of NIMBY centrist Dad types".

    And why not? A party that reflects myself and the majority of my fellow voters. Such an organisation wouldn't be required if we had a Labour Party without Momentum types, and a Conservative Party without ERG types.
  • The are currently 32,226 schools in the UK and 104 are affected, thats 0.32% of schools. The majority of Local Authorities will not be affected.
  • Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    BBC More Or Less programme. Around 22 min, 50 secs.

    "China has emitted more CO2 in the last 8 years than the UK has done since 1750".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001q0s6

    Half the entire CO2 emitted in human history has been in the last 3 decades, and 85% in the post war period.
    From all sources or just human? I have read that our emissions are dwarfed by natural emissions of it from other sources.
    The natural emissions are balanced by natural absorption to form a net zero cycle, whereas human emissions are a net input. It makes no sense to compare the two.
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    nico679 said:

    Any schools in Mid -Beds effected by the dodgy concrete .

    Could add a bit more spice to the already confused picture there .

    Well.
    We won't know till Monday it seems, since the government won't tell us.
    Presumably the Counties already know? Since WBC have already come out and said that none of theirs are affected.

    In which case, the Counties that aren't saying anything yet - perhaps we can gleam something from their silence?
    I suppose that is the logical conclusion.
    I'm a little confused by this though.
    LA's don't run that many schools right now. When they say none of ours, do they mean none in our area, or none of ours?*

    *I don't expect you, or anyone else to be able to answer that question.
    That is a very good question, and yes I could not come close to answering that question.

    I know my kids school is County-run, but I have absolutely no idea what % of schools are county run or not. Or whether there is a big primary/secondary split on those ratios.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,376

    The are currently 32,226 schools in the UK and 104 are affected, thats 0.32% of schools. The majority of Local Authorities will not be affected.

    From the way this has been presented on the news you'd think virtually every school would be affected.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188

    The are currently 32,226 schools in the UK and 104 are affected, thats 0.32% of schools. The majority of Local Authorities will not be affected.

    I'm under the impression that plenty of schools simply don't know if they're affected right now as they've not yet been surveyed.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    edited September 2023

    The are currently 32,226 schools in the UK and 104 are affected, thats 0.32% of schools. The majority of Local Authorities will not be affected.

    Isn't that just known problems, though ?

    As this suggests.

    New school safety warning prompted by beam collapse at building considered safe – UK politics live
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2023/sep/01/schools-crumbling-concrete-collapse-rishi-sunak-education-new-term-latest-updates-live
  • Nigelb said:

    The are currently 32,226 schools in the UK and 104 are affected, thats 0.32% of schools. The majority of Local Authorities will not be affected.

    Isn't that just known problems, though ?
    Who knows, but from my experience of dealing with Councils on Schools they do have decent constructuion records so should know what the constuction methods used were.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,376

    Taz said:

    Cyclefree said:

    ...

    Cyclefree said:

    A genuine question from me on the RAAC issue.

    I thought under Labour's PFI schemes, loads of money was spent doing up schools, rebuilding infrastructure etc.,. So how come schools are now at risk of falling down because of dodgy and/or inadequate concrete?

    Nice try.

    Whereas it is certainly nothing to do with the current government. NoSiree! I don't believe you can pin this one on Blair. Wilson and Callaghan, yes. So you are right it is a Labour generated problem, but from a different era. Much like Attlee and Bevan should be up in front of the Health Select Committee to explain the current mess that is the NHS, had they not died decades ago.

    P.S. I suspect the current furore relates to an issue that has been known about for many years which only comes to a head a few days before term is due to start. But blame Wilson and Callaghan by all means.
    It was a genuine question not a political point. I am not blaming anyone. And as you well know the Tories have been in power for longer than Labour in the post war years so if it's down to previous governments they are probably as responsible as anyone else.


    I don't know anything about PFI and schools but am puzzled at how such a problem has arisen if lots of money was spent on schools. Maybe it was spent on different things. Or only on new schools. I'm genuinely curious about what PFI was spent on.

    And how it is that this has only arisen now. Is there not a regular maintenance programme?

    I am a trustee of a school and one of the matters we regular consider when setting budgets is maintenance and refurbishment costs - and I'm not just talking about internal decoration either.

    But make your silly political points if it makes you feel better.
    I was being flippant, and for that I should apologise.

    I am not particularly fond of the Labour Party, particularly living here in Wales. But wouldn't it be fantastic if a centrist party based around LibDem ideology could replace them before the next GE. Unfortunately that isn't going to happen so we are lumbered with the hopeless Starmer as opposed to any number of even more hopeless and venal Conservative Prime Ministerial options.

    You are right about my "silly political points", I detest the current Conservative Government, and to be honest, almost everything they have done to our country since 2010, and certainly since 2016, including Gove's shelving of a programme to rebuild 719 schools in 2010.

    https://www.architectsjournal.co.uk/
    "I am not particularly fond of the Labour Party, particularly living here in Wales. But wouldn't it be fantastic if a centrist party based around LibDem ideology could replace them before the next GE."

    QTWTAIN !!!!

    Fortunately it will never happen. A party of NIMBY centrist Dad types. No thanks
    "A party of NIMBY centrist Dad types".

    And why not? A party that reflects myself and the majority of my fellow voters. Such an organisation wouldn't be required if we had a Labour Party without Momentum types, and a Conservative Party without ERG types.

    You missed the boat with ChangeUK.

    You posed the question "Wouldn't it be fantastic if....", I answered it. From my perspective it wouldn't. We need less NIMBYism not more. Anyway, apart from moaning about the other parties, NIMBYSIM, and being the home for the odd protest vote what exactly do the Lib Dems stand for these days ? What is their point and purpose ? What exactly is their ideology these days ? It is hard to tell.




  • Taz said:

    The are currently 32,226 schools in the UK and 104 are affected, thats 0.32% of schools. The majority of Local Authorities will not be affected.

    From the way this has been presented on the news you'd think virtually every school would be affected.
    Its a bad news story so it will be massively exaggerated, in a lot of these schools it will be just be certain buildings or areas that are affected, not the whole school.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,376
    Pulpstar said:

    The are currently 32,226 schools in the UK and 104 are affected, thats 0.32% of schools. The majority of Local Authorities will not be affected.

    I'm under the impression that plenty of schools simply don't know if they're affected right now as they've not yet been surveyed.
    Right, so that explains why it is getting the prominent coverage it is receiving.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited September 2023

    The are currently 32,226 schools in the UK and 104 are affected, thats 0.32% of schools. The majority of Local Authorities will not be affected.

    Do you really think this will be limited to 104 school buildings? I suspect in some way shape or form up to, or even over 50% of stock will eventually require significant maintenance, bearing in mind when that stock was built.

    The issue primarily, if we only limit the problem to those 104 schools is, why did the DfE/ Secretary of State for Education only realise there was a calamity afoot days before the school year starts?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    BBC More Or Less programme. Around 22 min, 50 secs.

    "China has emitted more CO2 in the last 8 years than the UK has done since 1750".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001q0s6

    Half the entire CO2 emitted in human history has been in the last 3 decades, and 85% in the post war period.
    From all sources or just human? I have read that our emissions are dwarfed by natural emissions of it from other sources.
    The natural emissions are balanced by natural absorption to form a net zero cycle, whereas human emissions are a net input. It makes no sense to compare the two.
    True in the short term. Not true over longer time scales. But true again over very long time periods.
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    nico679 said:

    Any schools in Mid -Beds effected by the dodgy concrete .

    Could add a bit more spice to the already confused picture there .

    Well.
    We won't know till Monday it seems, since the government won't tell us.
    Presumably the Counties already know? Since WBC have already come out and said that none of theirs are affected.

    In which case, the Counties that aren't saying anything yet - perhaps we can gleam something from their silence?
    I suppose that is the logical conclusion.
    I'm a little confused by this though.
    LA's don't run that many schools right now. When they say none of ours, do they mean none in our area, or none of ours?*

    *I don't expect you, or anyone else to be able to answer that question.
    I may be wrong on this but think local authorities maintain an oversight, audit and strategic planning role in respect of the (majority) of schools they don't actually run. So they should have the relevant information on state schools in their area even if they aren't actively involved in day to day management. My assumption is "our" schools therefore refers to non-private schools in our area.

    Having said that, I suspect it may not be immediate in terms of collating and checking relevant information given this is quite a specific issue that has come up rather suddenly and accuracy is pretty important. Not sure they'd have a file marked "school buildings in our area with RAAC" immediately to hand.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Just when you imagine the DfE can't be any less competent...
    "The government will cover all capital costs" of relocation.
    I should imagine that will be a minuscule proportion of the total bill.

    Just been reading the Graun feed. Interesting that the Minister thinks hiring/buying Portakabins is a "capital" investment..
    As far as school accounting is concerned, it is.
  • Taz said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The are currently 32,226 schools in the UK and 104 are affected, thats 0.32% of schools. The majority of Local Authorities will not be affected.

    I'm under the impression that plenty of schools simply don't know if they're affected right now as they've not yet been surveyed.
    Right, so that explains why it is getting the prominent coverage it is receiving.
    Councils employ there own surveyors and have decent records of construction. They know when and how there schools were constructed.

    Do people really think that the Government somehow has all the construction records for all the schools and the LAs do not. Schools are being worked on/upgraded all the time. In my role I receive all the construction drawings etc for each project, these detail exactly what is currently there. In the real world not the media hype world, LAs know exactly how their schools were constrcuted.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    The Tories will be the clear value in Mid Beds unless No Drama Starmer and Ravey Davey can make a deal. Under FPP, you have to play the game. If they don’t come to an arrangement, they deserve to lose to the Tories.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    According to the 🇩🇪 Minister of Defence, Boris Pistorius, the air policing will start tomorrow and will last until the end of the year.

    “🇸🇰 is an important alliance partner exposed on the eastern flank. From now on, we will support it with air policing to ensure security […]”

    https://twitter.com/deaidua/status/1697552273134555181
  • The are currently 32,226 schools in the UK and 104 are affected, thats 0.32% of schools. The majority of Local Authorities will not be affected.

    Do you really think this will be limited to 104 school buildings? I suspect in some way shape or form up to, or even over 50% of stock will eventually require significant maintenance, bearing in mind when that stock was built.

    The issue primarily, if we only limit the problem to those 104 schools is, why did the DfE/ Secretary of State for Education only realise there was a calamity afoot days before the school year starts?
    Because a beam collapsed over the summer in a school whose concrete had been considered safe. Thats why they issued this instruction now for similar schools
  • Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Just when you imagine the DfE can't be any less competent...
    "The government will cover all capital costs" of relocation.
    I should imagine that will be a minuscule proportion of the total bill.

    Just been reading the Graun feed. Interesting that the Minister thinks hiring/buying Portakabins is a "capital" investment.

    'Asked on Sky News who will pay if schools need to either fully or partially relocate, Nick Gibb said: “We will pay for that. We’ve made it very clear we will cover all capital costs.

    “So if in the worst-case scenario, we need portacabins in the school estate for an alternative accommodation, we will cover all those costs. So there has been some speculation that we won’t cover those costs. We absolutely will.”

    Asked whether all schools affected have now been informed, Gibb said: “The vast majority have. We have been calling them yesterday, but there are a few more that we’re calling today, and those schools are now talking to parents about what’s going to happen in their school.”'
    Isn't capital expenditure basically anything with a useful life of over a year? In fairness to Gibb, whist the Government might properly have been clearer about the scope from the start, it's not unreasonable to categorise a temporary classroom in that way.
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    nico679 said:

    Any schools in Mid -Beds effected by the dodgy concrete .

    Could add a bit more spice to the already confused picture there .

    Well.
    We won't know till Monday it seems, since the government won't tell us.
    Presumably the Counties already know? Since WBC have already come out and said that none of theirs are affected.

    In which case, the Counties that aren't saying anything yet - perhaps we can gleam something from their silence?
    I suppose that is the logical conclusion.
    I'm a little confused by this though.
    LA's don't run that many schools right now. When they say none of ours, do they mean none in our area, or none of ours?*

    *I don't expect you, or anyone else to be able to answer that question.
    LAs continue to run tens of thousands of schools. And for those they don't they assist the school in upgrading/modernisation works as the LA still maintains all the historical records for the school.
    We regularly work direct for Academy Schools where the Contract Administratior is a Council Surveyor.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Just when you imagine the DfE can't be any less competent...
    "The government will cover all capital costs" of relocation.
    I should imagine that will be a minuscule proportion of the total bill.

    Just been reading the Graun feed. Interesting that the Minister thinks hiring/buying Portakabins is a "capital" investment..
    As far as school accounting is concerned, it is.
    And given how long portacabins seem to hang around in schools once they find a place there it may not be that unreasonable!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    edited September 2023
    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Just when you imagine the DfE can't be any less competent...
    "The government will cover all capital costs" of relocation.
    I should imagine that will be a minuscule proportion of the total bill.

    Just been reading the Graun feed. Interesting that the Minister thinks hiring/buying Portakabins is a "capital" investment..
    As far as school accounting is concerned, it is.
    There's capital and there's capital. I mean both our building and computer equipment is in as a capital asset but we write the (permanent) building off over 50 years whereas comp stuff is written off over 4.
    I'd have thought a portacabin should probably be written off over perhaps 10 years ? If you've bought it (Outright or on finance).
    If it's a simple hire (Not hp), obviously it shouldn't be in as a capital asset.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Cyclefree said:

    ...

    Cyclefree said:

    A genuine question from me on the RAAC issue.

    I thought under Labour's PFI schemes, loads of money was spent doing up schools, rebuilding infrastructure etc.,. So how come schools are now at risk of falling down because of dodgy and/or inadequate concrete?

    Nice try.

    Whereas it is certainly nothing to do with the current government. NoSiree! I don't believe you can pin this one on Blair. Wilson and Callaghan, yes. So you are right it is a Labour generated problem, but from a different era. Much like Attlee and Bevan should be up in front of the Health Select Committee to explain the current mess that is the NHS, had they not died decades ago.

    P.S. I suspect the current furore relates to an issue that has been known about for many years which only comes to a head a few days before term is due to start. But blame Wilson and Callaghan by all means.
    It was a genuine question not a political point. I am not blaming anyone. And as you well know the Tories have been in power for longer than Labour in the post war years so if it's down to previous governments they are probably as responsible as anyone else.


    I don't know anything about PFI and schools but am puzzled at how such a problem has arisen if lots of money was spent on schools. Maybe it was spent on different things. Or only on new schools. I'm genuinely curious about what PFI was spent on.

    And how it is that this has only arisen now. Is there not a regular maintenance programme?

    I am a trustee of a school and one of the matters we regular consider when setting budgets is maintenance and refurbishment costs - and I'm not just talking about internal decoration either.

    But make your silly political points if it makes you feel better.
    I was being flippant, and for that I should apologise.

    I am not particularly fond of the Labour Party, particularly living here in Wales. But wouldn't it be fantastic if a centrist party based around LibDem ideology could replace them before the next GE. Unfortunately that isn't going to happen so we are lumbered with the hopeless Starmer as opposed to any number of even more hopeless and venal Conservative Prime Ministerial options.

    You are right about my "silly political points", I detest the current Conservative Government, and to be honest, almost everything they have done to our country since 2010, and certainly since 2016, including Gove's shelving of a programme to rebuild 719 schools in 2010.

    https://www.architectsjournal.co.uk/
    "I am not particularly fond of the Labour Party, particularly living here in Wales. But wouldn't it be fantastic if a centrist party based around LibDem ideology could replace them before the next GE."

    QTWTAIN !!!!

    Fortunately it will never happen. A party of NIMBY centrist Dad types. No thanks
    "A party of NIMBY centrist Dad types".

    And why not? A party that reflects myself and the majority of my fellow voters. Such an organisation wouldn't be required if we had a Labour Party without Momentum types, and a Conservative Party without ERG types.

    You missed the boat with ChangeUK.

    You posed the question "Wouldn't it be fantastic if....", I answered it. From my perspective it wouldn't. We need less NIMBYism not more. Anyway, apart from moaning about the other parties, NIMBYSIM, and being the home for the odd protest vote what exactly do the Lib Dems stand for these days ? What is their point and purpose ? What exactly is their ideology these days ? It is hard to tell.




    Well if ChangeUK couldn't usurp Labour when the lunatics were running the asylum, they won't cut the mustard in the next 18 months, unfortunately.
    Taz said:
    Tricky Dickie Burgon and his herd of associated numpties don't appear on the list though.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,376
    Labour is racking up a large bill pursuing 5 former staffers alleged to have leaked the anti semitism report.

    It is just as well they are getting plenty of donations

    I am not sure what the benefit to them is of pursuing this. They seem to be incurring lots of costs so far and have gained little.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/labour-costs-pass-500-000-in-lawsuit-over-leaked-antisemitism-report/ar-AA1g2oOP?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=63d5b1e9e1ca44f597d47ab58c9b24df&ei=9
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368

    Taz said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The are currently 32,226 schools in the UK and 104 are affected, thats 0.32% of schools. The majority of Local Authorities will not be affected.

    I'm under the impression that plenty of schools simply don't know if they're affected right now as they've not yet been surveyed.
    Right, so that explains why it is getting the prominent coverage it is receiving.
    Councils employ there own surveyors and have decent records of construction. They know when and how there schools were constructed.

    Do people really think that the Government somehow has all the construction records for all the schools and the LAs do not. Schools are being worked on/upgraded all the time. In my role I receive all the construction drawings etc for each project, these detail exactly what is currently there. In the real world not the media hype world, LAs know exactly how their schools were constrcuted.
    I'm sure they do when they look at the details and find out.

    But it won't be on a instant access spreadsheet - which you are implying that it is...
  • The Tories will be the clear value in Mid Beds unless No Drama Starmer and Ravey Davey can make a deal. Under FPP, you have to play the game. If they don’t come to an arrangement, they deserve to lose to the Tories.

    I'd bet on the Tories then, as realistically there simply isn't going to be such a deal at this stage.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    Taz said:

    Labour is racking up a large bill pursuing 5 former staffers alleged to have leaked the anti semitism report.

    It is just as well they are getting plenty of donations

    I am not sure what the benefit to them is of pursuing this. They seem to be incurring lots of costs so far and have gained little.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/labour-costs-pass-500-000-in-lawsuit-over-leaked-antisemitism-report/ar-AA1g2oOP?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=63d5b1e9e1ca44f597d47ab58c9b24df&ei=9

    pour encourager les autres
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    The are currently 32,226 schools in the UK and 104 are affected, thats 0.32% of schools. The majority of Local Authorities will not be affected.

    Do you really think this will be limited to 104 school buildings? I suspect in some way shape or form up to, or even over 50% of stock will eventually require significant maintenance, bearing in mind when that stock was built.

    The issue primarily, if we only limit the problem to those 104 schools is, why did the DfE/ Secretary of State for Education only realise there was a calamity afoot days before the school year starts?
    Because a beam collapsed over the summer in a school whose concrete had been considered safe. Thats why they issued this instruction now for similar schools
    Check the date.

    https://www.s2e.org.uk/news/what-is-the-problem-with-reinforced-autoclaved-aerated-concrete-raac
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,647
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Just when you imagine the DfE can't be any less competent...
    "The government will cover all capital costs" of relocation.
    I should imagine that will be a minuscule proportion of the total bill.

    Just been reading the Graun feed. Interesting that the Minister thinks hiring/buying Portakabins is a "capital" investment..
    As far as school accounting is concerned, it is.
    And given how long portacabins seem to hang around in schools once they find a place there it may not be that unreasonable!
    I was taught out of portakabins for 6 years. An important part of any Scottish education.
  • Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    BBC More Or Less programme. Around 22 min, 50 secs.

    "China has emitted more CO2 in the last 8 years than the UK has done since 1750".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001q0s6

    Half the entire CO2 emitted in human history has been in the last 3 decades, and 85% in the post war period.
    From all sources or just human? I have read that our emissions are dwarfed by natural emissions of it from other sources.
    The natural emissions are balanced by natural absorption to form a net zero cycle, whereas human emissions are a net input. It makes no sense to compare the two.
    No they are not. There is no natural net zero cycle. This is not an argument over AGW per se, just pointing out that there is no natural system that automatically equalises CO2 emmissions and absorption. Hence the reason the amounts in the atmosphere change naturally and sometimes quite radically.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Just when you imagine the DfE can't be any less competent...
    "The government will cover all capital costs" of relocation.
    I should imagine that will be a minuscule proportion of the total bill.

    Just been reading the Graun feed. Interesting that the Minister thinks hiring/buying Portakabins is a "capital" investment..
    As far as school accounting is concerned, it is.
    There's capital and there's capital. I mean both our building and computer equipment is in as a capital asset but we write the (permanent) building off over 50 years whereas comp stuff is written off over 4.
    I'd have thought a portacabin should probably be written off over perhaps 10 years ? If you've bought it (Outright or on finance).
    If it's a simple hire (Not hp), obviously it shouldn't be in as a capital asset.
    That would seem to confirm my first impression, that the implication of the minister's statement is therefore that HMG CBA to fund proper permanent replacement and Portakabins are what you are getting. Probably unintentional, but ...
  • The are currently 32,226 schools in the UK and 104 are affected, thats 0.32% of schools. The majority of Local Authorities will not be affected.

    Do you really think this will be limited to 104 school buildings? I suspect in some way shape or form up to, or even over 50% of stock will eventually require significant maintenance, bearing in mind when that stock was built.

    The issue primarily, if we only limit the problem to those 104 schools is, why did the DfE/ Secretary of State for Education only realise there was a calamity afoot days before the school year starts?
    Because a beam collapsed over the summer in a school whose concrete had been considered safe. Thats why they issued this instruction now for similar schools
    Check the date.

    https://www.s2e.org.uk/news/what-is-the-problem-with-reinforced-autoclaved-aerated-concrete-raac
    OK, following these surveys in a school whose concrete was considered safe a beam collapsed over this summer break. Thats what has led to this instruction.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    Taz said:

    Labour is racking up a large bill pursuing 5 former staffers alleged to have leaked the anti semitism report.

    It is just as well they are getting plenty of donations

    I am not sure what the benefit to them is of pursuing this. They seem to be incurring lots of costs so far and have gained little.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/labour-costs-pass-500-000-in-lawsuit-over-leaked-antisemitism-report/ar-AA1g2oOP?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=63d5b1e9e1ca44f597d47ab58c9b24df&ei=9

    Agree; same with kicking out 'marginal' MP's. The idea of a party with dutiful, obedient MP's doesn't appeal to me.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    BBC More Or Less programme. Around 22 min, 50 secs.

    "China has emitted more CO2 in the last 8 years than the UK has done since 1750".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001q0s6

    Half the entire CO2 emitted in human history has been in the last 3 decades, and 85% in the post war period.
    From all sources or just human? I have read that our emissions are dwarfed by natural emissions of it from other sources.
    The natural emissions are balanced by natural absorption to form a net zero cycle, whereas human emissions are a net input. It makes no sense to compare the two.
    No they are not. There is no natural net zero cycle. This is not an argument over AGW per se, just pointing out that there is no natural system that automatically equalises CO2 emmissions and absorption. Hence the reason the amounts in the atmosphere change naturally and sometimes quite radically.
    Isn't the current 'natural' change is likely to be far, far lower than 2.4 ppm/year though. It could even potentially be negative right now.

    ~= +/- 0.024 ppm/year or so maybe ?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Just when you imagine the DfE can't be any less competent...
    "The government will cover all capital costs" of relocation.
    I should imagine that will be a minuscule proportion of the total bill.

    Just been reading the Graun feed. Interesting that the Minister thinks hiring/buying Portakabins is a "capital" investment..
    As far as school accounting is concerned, it is.
    And given how long portacabins seem to hang around in schools once they find a place there it may not be that unreasonable!
    I was taught out of portakabins for 6 years. An important part of any Scottish education.
    I think I only did 2 terms in one but they had been there for a while before me!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    nico679 said:

    Any schools in Mid -Beds effected by the dodgy concrete .

    Could add a bit more spice to the already confused picture there .

    Well.
    We won't know till Monday it seems, since the government won't tell us.
    Presumably the Counties already know? Since WBC have already come out and said that none of theirs are affected.

    In which case, the Counties that aren't saying anything yet - perhaps we can gleam something from their silence?
    I suppose that is the logical conclusion.
    I'm a little confused by this though.
    LA's don't run that many schools right now. When they say none of ours, do they mean none in our area, or none of ours?*

    *I don't expect you, or anyone else to be able to answer that question.
    That is a very good question, and yes I could not come close to answering that question.

    I know my kids school is County-run, but I have absolutely no idea what % of schools are county run or not. Or whether there is a big primary/secondary split on those ratios.
    80% of Secondary and 40% of Primaries are academies or free schools.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    The are currently 32,226 schools in the UK and 104 are affected, thats 0.32% of schools. The majority of Local Authorities will not be affected.

    Do you really think this will be limited to 104 school buildings? I suspect in some way shape or form up to, or even over 50% of stock will eventually require significant maintenance, bearing in mind when that stock was built.

    The issue primarily, if we only limit the problem to those 104 schools is, why did the DfE/ Secretary of State for Education only realise there was a calamity afoot days before the school year starts?
    Because a beam collapsed over the summer in a school whose concrete had been considered safe. Thats why they issued this instruction now for similar schools
    Check the date.

    https://www.s2e.org.uk/news/what-is-the-problem-with-reinforced-autoclaved-aerated-concrete-raac
    OK, following these surveys in a school whose concrete was considered safe a beam collapsed over this summer break. Thats what has led to this instruction.
    I don't know? I can see a government mismanagement problem here, although I am biased against this bunch of venal clowns.

    Equally, you'd defend this Government even if they allocated million pound NHS PPE contracts to friends and family, fortunately they wouldn't be that corrupt, would they? So my point is moot.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812

    Taz said:

    Labour is racking up a large bill pursuing 5 former staffers alleged to have leaked the anti semitism report.

    It is just as well they are getting plenty of donations

    I am not sure what the benefit to them is of pursuing this. They seem to be incurring lots of costs so far and have gained little.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/labour-costs-pass-500-000-in-lawsuit-over-leaked-antisemitism-report/ar-AA1g2oOP?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=63d5b1e9e1ca44f597d47ab58c9b24df&ei=9

    Agree; same with kicking out 'marginal' MP's. The idea of a party with dutiful, obedient MP's doesn't appeal to me.
    That argument is less compelling when you look at what tolerating the eccentricities of Corbyn led to.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    DavidL said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Just when you imagine the DfE can't be any less competent...
    "The government will cover all capital costs" of relocation.
    I should imagine that will be a minuscule proportion of the total bill.

    Just been reading the Graun feed. Interesting that the Minister thinks hiring/buying Portakabins is a "capital" investment..
    As far as school accounting is concerned, it is.
    And given how long portacabins seem to hang around in schools once they find a place there it may not be that unreasonable!
    I was taught out of portakabins for 6 years. An important part of any Scottish education.
    I think I only did 2 terms in one but they had been there for a while before me!
    I distinctly remember doing german in a portacabin. Private school.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Just when you imagine the DfE can't be any less competent...
    "The government will cover all capital costs" of relocation.
    I should imagine that will be a minuscule proportion of the total bill.

    Just been reading the Graun feed. Interesting that the Minister thinks hiring/buying Portakabins is a "capital" investment..
    As far as school accounting is concerned, it is.
    And given how long portacabins seem to hang around in schools once they find a place there it may not be that unreasonable!
    I was taught out of portakabins for 6 years. An important part of any Scottish education.
    I think I only did 2 terms in one but they had been there for a while before me!
    I distinctly remember doing german in a portacabin. Private school.
    They do tend to develop bizarre and unique slang, yes.
  • Off-topic:

    For anyone interested in history, Real time WW2 on Twitter restarted this morning tweeting events from the 1st September 2939. (Note the title still says 1945 from his last time around...)

    https://twitter.com/RealTimeWWII
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,647
    DavidL said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Just when you imagine the DfE can't be any less competent...
    "The government will cover all capital costs" of relocation.
    I should imagine that will be a minuscule proportion of the total bill.

    Just been reading the Graun feed. Interesting that the Minister thinks hiring/buying Portakabins is a "capital" investment..
    As far as school accounting is concerned, it is.
    And given how long portacabins seem to hang around in schools once they find a place there it may not be that unreasonable!
    I was taught out of portakabins for 6 years. An important part of any Scottish education.
    I think I only did 2 terms in one but they had been there for a while before me!
    To be fair, it was only a few subjects. They finished the (hideous) permanent extension just as I headed off to uni.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Labour is racking up a large bill pursuing 5 former staffers alleged to have leaked the anti semitism report.

    It is just as well they are getting plenty of donations

    I am not sure what the benefit to them is of pursuing this. They seem to be incurring lots of costs so far and have gained little.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/labour-costs-pass-500-000-in-lawsuit-over-leaked-antisemitism-report/ar-AA1g2oOP?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=63d5b1e9e1ca44f597d47ab58c9b24df&ei=9

    Agree; same with kicking out 'marginal' MP's. The idea of a party with dutiful, obedient MP's doesn't appeal to me.
    That argument is less compelling when you look at what tolerating the eccentricities of Corbyn led to.
    While I'm opposed to anti-semitism, and any other racial discrimination, I do suspect the treatment of Corbyn since he resigned as Leader has been rather OTT.
  • Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Just when you imagine the DfE can't be any less competent...
    "The government will cover all capital costs" of relocation.
    I should imagine that will be a minuscule proportion of the total bill.

    Just been reading the Graun feed. Interesting that the Minister thinks hiring/buying Portakabins is a "capital" investment..
    As far as school accounting is concerned, it is.
    And given how long portacabins seem to hang around in schools once they find a place there it may not be that unreasonable!
    I was taught out of portakabins for 6 years. An important part of any Scottish education.
    I think I only did 2 terms in one but they had been there for a while before me!
    I distinctly remember doing german in a portacabin. Private school.
    At our junior school there was a portacabin in the playground that housed the Remedials.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Labour is racking up a large bill pursuing 5 former staffers alleged to have leaked the anti semitism report.

    It is just as well they are getting plenty of donations

    I am not sure what the benefit to them is of pursuing this. They seem to be incurring lots of costs so far and have gained little.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/labour-costs-pass-500-000-in-lawsuit-over-leaked-antisemitism-report/ar-AA1g2oOP?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=63d5b1e9e1ca44f597d47ab58c9b24df&ei=9

    Agree; same with kicking out 'marginal' MP's. The idea of a party with dutiful, obedient MP's doesn't appeal to me.
    That argument is less compelling when you look at what tolerating the eccentricities of Corbyn led to.
    I am not sure that is an accurate refection of Labour under Corbyn. He kicked everyone out who didn't toe his particular Animal Farm line.

    On the other hand if all the non-Corbynista MPs left and had joined ChangeUK (which they should have done) British politics would be looking a whole lot healthier and less Brexity after the next election.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    BBC More Or Less programme. Around 22 min, 50 secs.

    "China has emitted more CO2 in the last 8 years than the UK has done since 1750".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001q0s6

    Half the entire CO2 emitted in human history has been in the last 3 decades, and 85% in the post war period.
    From all sources or just human? I have read that our emissions are dwarfed by natural emissions of it from other sources.
    The natural emissions are balanced by natural absorption to form a net zero cycle, whereas human emissions are a net input. It makes no sense to compare the two.
    No they are not. There is no natural net zero cycle. This is not an argument over AGW per se, just pointing out that there is no natural system that automatically equalises CO2 emmissions and absorption. Hence the reason the amounts in the atmosphere change naturally and sometimes quite radically.
    Isn't the current 'natural' change is likely to be far, far lower than 2.4 ppm/year though. It could even potentially be negative right now.

    ~= +/- 0.024 ppm/year or so maybe ?
    My comment was not, as I said, pertaining to AGW. FE and I are never going to agree on that. It was simply about his comment on a natural net zero cycle. It doesn't exist. Hence the reason we have had such massive changes in CO2 concentrations over geological time.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523

    On topic. Surely the imminent constituency polls of mid Bedfordshire will end the LibDem Labour standoff, hurtle one of them into light campaigning mode, inform the voters what the clear tactical vote is, thus placing the Tory’s in greater peril, and change the betting completely?

    Yes, perhaps - do we know such polls are coming? In fact I've been wondering if any of the parties have been doing polls but not publishing them because they don't like the results.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424

    Off-topic:

    For anyone interested in history, Real time WW2 on Twitter restarted this morning tweeting events from the 1st September 2939. (Note the title still says 1945 from his last time around...)

    https://twitter.com/RealTimeWWII

    Family history fact; my in-laws were married on Sept 2nd 1939. F-i-l used to say for years that he hadn't had a days peace since he got married.
    He was actually called up a few days later.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Labour is racking up a large bill pursuing 5 former staffers alleged to have leaked the anti semitism report.

    It is just as well they are getting plenty of donations

    I am not sure what the benefit to them is of pursuing this. They seem to be incurring lots of costs so far and have gained little.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/labour-costs-pass-500-000-in-lawsuit-over-leaked-antisemitism-report/ar-AA1g2oOP?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=63d5b1e9e1ca44f597d47ab58c9b24df&ei=9

    Agree; same with kicking out 'marginal' MP's. The idea of a party with dutiful, obedient MP's doesn't appeal to me.
    That argument is less compelling when you look at what tolerating the eccentricities of Corbyn led to.
    While I'm opposed to anti-semitism, and any other racial discrimination, I do suspect the treatment of Corbyn since he resigned as Leader has been rather OTT.
    Remember OKC how Corbyn behaved with Luciana Berger, Chuka Umunna, Chris Leslie, Angela Smith, Mike Gapes, Gavin Shuker and Ann Coffey. He was particularly ruthless when it came to Luciana, and why? Because he conflated her with Netanyahu's regime in Israel.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    Have we done the further erosion of Labour’s polling position? They have dropped in the latest Techne Poll. Only 45% with Techne now. 😈
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    edited September 2023

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    BBC More Or Less programme. Around 22 min, 50 secs.

    "China has emitted more CO2 in the last 8 years than the UK has done since 1750".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001q0s6

    Half the entire CO2 emitted in human history has been in the last 3 decades, and 85% in the post war period.
    From all sources or just human? I have read that our emissions are dwarfed by natural emissions of it from other sources.
    The natural emissions are balanced by natural absorption to form a net zero cycle, whereas human emissions are a net input. It makes no sense to compare the two.
    No they are not. There is no natural net zero cycle. This is not an argument over AGW per se, just pointing out that there is no natural system that automatically equalises CO2 emmissions and absorption. Hence the reason the amounts in the atmosphere change naturally and sometimes quite radically.
    Isn't the current 'natural' change is likely to be far, far lower than 2.4 ppm/year though. It could even potentially be negative right now.

    ~= +/- 0.024 ppm/year or so maybe ?
    My comment was not, as I said, pertaining to AGW. FE and I are never going to agree on that. It was simply about his comment on a natural net zero cycle. It doesn't exist. Hence the reason we have had such massive changes in CO2 concentrations over geological time.
    You'd agree that over human-lifetime, even multi-generational timescales CO2 change is pretty damn close to zero though ?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    “Quite the UK GDP revision today - hugely higher level - almost 2% up
    - ONS found stockbuilding down the back of the sofa in 2020
    - and foud wholesale and health services much stronger than expected in 2021

    Means the UK is not a global outlier any more....”

    https://x.com/chrisgiles_/status/1697540066493579639?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Labour is racking up a large bill pursuing 5 former staffers alleged to have leaked the anti semitism report.

    It is just as well they are getting plenty of donations

    I am not sure what the benefit to them is of pursuing this. They seem to be incurring lots of costs so far and have gained little.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/labour-costs-pass-500-000-in-lawsuit-over-leaked-antisemitism-report/ar-AA1g2oOP?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=63d5b1e9e1ca44f597d47ab58c9b24df&ei=9

    Agree; same with kicking out 'marginal' MP's. The idea of a party with dutiful, obedient MP's doesn't appeal to me.
    That argument is less compelling when you look at what tolerating the eccentricities of Corbyn led to.
    While I'm opposed to anti-semitism, and any other racial discrimination, I do suspect the treatment of Corbyn since he resigned as Leader has been rather OTT.
    Surely all performative though - it's about telling red/blue marginals 'this guy was nuts, he should never have been leader but thankfully the grownups are back in charge and you can safely vote for us again'.

    After all, Labour can only ever win a GE by persuading people who vote Tory to vote for them instead; a pretty simple fact which is conveniently ignored by those on the far left.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Carnyx said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Just when you imagine the DfE can't be any less competent...
    "The government will cover all capital costs" of relocation.
    I should imagine that will be a minuscule proportion of the total bill.

    Just been reading the Graun feed. Interesting that the Minister thinks hiring/buying Portakabins is a "capital" investment..
    As far as school accounting is concerned, it is.
    There's capital and there's capital. I mean both our building and computer equipment is in as a capital asset but we write the (permanent) building off over 50 years whereas comp stuff is written off over 4.
    I'd have thought a portacabin should probably be written off over perhaps 10 years ? If you've bought it (Outright or on finance).
    If it's a simple hire (Not hp), obviously it shouldn't be in as a capital asset.
    That would seem to confirm my first impression, that the implication of the minister's statement is therefore that HMG CBA to fund proper permanent replacement and Portakabins are what you are getting. Probably unintentional, but ...
    I think the problem is the schools affected are NOT getting portakabins. At least not yet.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    UK GDP is now, in fact, comfortably over its pre pandemic level and in line with peer nations and better than some. Not quite the Brexit basket-case that has been portrayed


    https://x.com/chrisgiles_/status/1697544946851451317?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    kinabalu said:

    On topic. Surely the imminent constituency polls of mid Bedfordshire will end the LibDem Labour standoff, hurtle one of them into light campaigning mode, inform the voters what the clear tactical vote is, thus placing the Tory’s in greater peril, and change the betting completely?

    Crumbling Schools. Why a news story now, last week of august? My mum is right in this one, the Tory’s are being stitched up by The Blob yet again.

    Judging by the member comms I've had Labour are going for this one. I think they have to. The upside is enormous if they pull it off. It will point to a possible landslide at the GE. And if they don't and a split vote lets the Tories in, well that will serve as a great lesson for next year. Ditto if a critical mass of anti-tory voters decide to ignore the Labour effort and elect a LD instead. That's also a great lesson for next year. Any which way the political calculus says that Labour have to try and win this byelection.
    “if they [Labour] pull it off. It will point to a possible landslide at the GE”

    No it won’t. It’s daft to be convinced of that. By-elections and the GE vote itself are two completely different things. For evidence, look at the 1992, Labour win a by-election on eve of the election they couldn’t hold weeks later in the GE.

    MB is interesting to us psephologists in that there’s lots of places at the next election where Lib plus Lab totals convincingly eclipse the Tory winning score, if tactical voting isn’t precise enough - but I suspect constituency polls will guide the tactical voters more so than how hard Lab and Lib are going for it there. In fact more than that, there may be Constituency polling in the run up to the GE commissioned just for Lib Dem or Labour eyes only, psephologist and political betting won’t ever see.

    MB is also interesting to psephology for another reason. If it does come down to just one clear challenger for the Tories, but the Tories hold on, what are the reasons for the Tory win. Ulez? Or is it a constituency with lot of pensioners, so it’s a safe Grey Wall seat for the Tories, come whatever kind of election.
    Polls being followed by a Moon Rabbit ... Moon Rabbit Moon Rabbit :smile:

    But yes, yes it will. Not to a definite landslide, no way, and I didn't say that, but to the realistic chance of one. Why? Because it will point to not just a strong desire to remove the Tories but to a willingness to elect a Labour MP in this sort of seat. The more the anti-Tory vote in Middle England does this the higher the chance of that big Labour win.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Have we done the further erosion of Labour’s polling position? They have dropped in the latest Techne Poll. Only 45% with Techne now. 😈

    They've been bumping around 45/46 with one 47 with Techne all summer. Have the Tories gone up from their circa 26/27?

    Rishi's party looking good for the win for the Rabbit?
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