The stereotype of the Red Wall is further north but, tbh, this is the sort of bellwether seat that the Tories should be worried about: owner-occupiers, outer suburban, light industry and service industries, car-dominated, not overly prosperous but not particularly poor either. I used to work in Burton (the adjacent town) and many of the people in junior jobs at our company lived in Swad.
The East Midlands has been the area with the smallest swingback to Labour. If somewhere like Swad is going back to Labour with a 30% gain then the Conservatives are toast.
On topic, Labour are certainly going full blaze for Mid Beds. A 'personal' email from Labour's candidate has gone out to all members tonight, seeking support both financial and on the doorstep. I don't recall getting one of those for either Selby or Somerton & Frome.
Yes, I've just signed up for the canvass session emails - they're doing three a day in different part of mid-Beds. Hoping to spend some time there in September.
From what I’ve seen he looks to be a decent candidate with a good profile for the seat.
Very interested to hear some on the ground info; I find this one very difficult to call.
I would expect a blue reversion at the GE regardless of a LD or Lab win though.
The stereotype of the Red Wall is further north but, tbh, this is the sort of bellwether seat that the Tories should be worried about: owner-occupiers, outer suburban, light industry and service industries, car-dominated, not overly prosperous but not particularly poor either. I used to work in Burton (the adjacent town) and many of the people in junior jobs at our company lived in Swad.
The East Midlands has been the area with the smallest swingback to Labour. If somewhere like Swad is going back to Labour with a 30% gain then the Conservatives are toast.
Also Burton was a Labour seat until not that long ago.
Equally, one thing to remember is you do have quite a lot of professionals from Derby and Nottingham moving into Swadlincote because it’s cheaper and has good transport links to both. So it is gradually trending Labour anyway.
The reason Sweden is significant is because of how badly they've managed immigration compared to similar countries like Denmark and Norway.
That's certainly true. Indeed, it's hard to think of anywhere that has managed to fuck it up so badly.
And the crazy bit is, the Swedes haven't actually taken that many asylum seekers compared to - say - Spain or Switzerland. And yet, they've managed to ghettoize them and completely fail any kind of assimilation, or fitting in with local norms.
At the latest count refugees/asylum seekers make up 4.4% of Norways population. Not all immigrants - just refugees/asylum seekers
It is worth noting that Norway has taken asylum seekers from Poland. As in, Poles who found themselves oppressed by the government there.
I have a Polish friend who lives in London because of the systematic homophobia in Poland. He arrived as an EU migrant rather than formal refugee, but the reason was the same.
The stereotype of the Red Wall is further north but, tbh, this is the sort of bellwether seat that the Tories should be worried about: owner-occupiers, outer suburban, light industry and service industries, car-dominated, not overly prosperous but not particularly poor either. I used to work in Burton (the adjacent town) and many of the people in junior jobs at our company lived in Swad.
The East Midlands has been the area with the smallest swingback to Labour. If somewhere like Swad is going back to Labour with a 30% gain then the Conservatives are toast.
Also Burton was a Labour seat until not that long ago.
Equally, one thing to remember is you do have quite a lot of professionals from Derby and Nottingham moving into Swadlincote because it’s cheaper and has good transport links to both. So it is gradually trending Labour anyway.
Good morning
This result from last night in Wales seems surprising
Poland is the like the UK. The government rhetoric is very anti-immigration, particularly on the “threat” of asylum seekers, but actually policy is pro-immigration, with high numbers of work visas issued. Immigration to Poland is high. Obviously, a lot of that is about Ukraine right now, but immigration to Poland was high before the Russian invasion and there are large numbers from countries other than Ukraine.
The stereotype of the Red Wall is further north but, tbh, this is the sort of bellwether seat that the Tories should be worried about: owner-occupiers, outer suburban, light industry and service industries, car-dominated, not overly prosperous but not particularly poor either. I used to work in Burton (the adjacent town) and many of the people in junior jobs at our company lived in Swad.
The East Midlands has been the area with the smallest swingback to Labour. If somewhere like Swad is going back to Labour with a 30% gain then the Conservatives are toast.
Also Burton was a Labour seat until not that long ago.
Equally, one thing to remember is you do have quite a lot of professionals from Derby and Nottingham moving into Swadlincote because it’s cheaper and has good transport links to both. So it is gradually trending Labour anyway.
Good morning
This result from last night in Wales seems surprising
On Swadlincote, the local MP was one of the handful who voted against sanctions against Boris. Don't know how well known this was locally but might not have helped.
The stereotype of the Red Wall is further north but, tbh, this is the sort of bellwether seat that the Tories should be worried about: owner-occupiers, outer suburban, light industry and service industries, car-dominated, not overly prosperous but not particularly poor either. I used to work in Burton (the adjacent town) and many of the people in junior jobs at our company lived in Swad.
The East Midlands has been the area with the smallest swingback to Labour. If somewhere like Swad is going back to Labour with a 30% gain then the Conservatives are toast.
Also Burton was a Labour seat until not that long ago.
Equally, one thing to remember is you do have quite a lot of professionals from Derby and Nottingham moving into Swadlincote because it’s cheaper and has good transport links to both. So it is gradually trending Labour anyway.
Good morning
This result from last night in Wales seems surprising
I mean. Just look at the graphs. The first graph shows swedish sexual offences against women, including rape
The second graph shows Swedish immigration. The purple line is migration into Sweden
If it's *all* about immigration, how do you explain why Norway (with very similar immigration trends) has seen these trends:
I won't argue that detailed point. I don't know the granular facts about Norway and Denmark v Sweden. Clearly - as you say - something has gone uniquely bad with immigration into Sweden. Nonetheless it IS immigration, mainly Muslim (AIUI)
Perhaps it is the source of the migrants?
Setting aside Poles (I don't think they are letting off bombs), most recent Swedish immigrants have been from Iraq, Iran, Syria and Somalia, it looks like. Perhaps this is a different profile to Norway? I genuinely dunno
So why has Sweden had terrible trouble, while Norway has had - essentially - none?
Basically: Norway (and to a lesser extent Denmark and Finland) puts a massive amount of emphasis on integration and getting immigrants speaking Norwegian. IIRC Mr Tyndall, when he was living there (and even as a highly paid oil industry worker) was required to take Norwegian lessons. They also go to a great deal of trouble to make sure that they don't let ghettos form. Basically, if you're a Syrian refugee, you probably won't find yourself with other Syrian refugees. But on the other hand, this seems to work: employment rates for Eritreans / Syrians / are pretty close to those for the native born.
Sweden, by contrast, welcomed everyone and then chucked them in grim housing estates in Lund and the outskirts of Stockholm, without any skills or any significant likelihood of integrating or even earning a living.
A very positive approach, and one reason that migrant groups here that disperse around the country and have good language skills integrate so well, for example the Filipinos. There were just 18 000 in the 1980s but are now 200 000, so a rather under the radar group. Many work in health and social care, and employment creates dispersal. Great to work with too. Another aspect aiding integration is gender, as proportionally quite female.
Over time and with the right government policies migrants integrate well. Our new F2 doctor is an example. Ethnically Somali, born in Sweden, lived in Leicester 20 years, medical school in Romania, now back here, clearly looks Somali, but culturally now very British. Great doctor and attitude.
I mean. Just look at the graphs. The first graph shows swedish sexual offences against women, including rape
The second graph shows Swedish immigration. The purple line is migration into Sweden
If it's *all* about immigration, how do you explain why Norway (with very similar immigration trends) has seen these trends:
I won't argue that detailed point. I don't know the granular facts about Norway and Denmark v Sweden. Clearly - as you say - something has gone uniquely bad with immigration into Sweden. Nonetheless it IS immigration, mainly Muslim (AIUI)
Perhaps it is the source of the migrants?
Setting aside Poles (I don't think they are letting off bombs), most recent Swedish immigrants have been from Iraq, Iran, Syria and Somalia, it looks like. Perhaps this is a different profile to Norway? I genuinely dunno
I would suggest that - as I have said before - it is not to do with where the immigrants come from but how they are hanlded once they arrive in the country. There are very large numbers of immigrants arriving in Norway from the countries you mention. The difference is that the Norwegian Government has what you might call a 'tough love' system. Anyone wanting to settle in Norway has to undertake 300 hours (up from 200 hours when I worked there) of compulsory Norwegian language and culture lessons. Even if you are doing a couple of hours every single week that is still nearly 3 years of compulsory lessons.
And asylum seekers are not allowed to just live anywhere. To avoid the formation of ghettos or areas of dominant immigrant population they are told which county they have to live in for the first few years.
The system works. I have never been in a country where the immigrant population was so well integrated. And it is a ciculcular thing. Because the integration is so good the acceptance of large numbers of immigrants is very high amongst the Norwegian population in general. So the immigrants feel more welcome and so there is a much better relationship.
Of course I am sure it is nopt all plain sailing all the time and sadly you still get lunatics like Anders Brevik. But as I said at the time - indeed I think in conversation with you - it is ironic that he was railing against immigration when Norway is one of the most integrated countries in Europe - and thoroughly Norwegian.
You know, I went to a lot of trouble to write a post, and then I see you have written a better one.
I mean. Just look at the graphs. The first graph shows swedish sexual offences against women, including rape
The second graph shows Swedish immigration. The purple line is migration into Sweden
If it's *all* about immigration, how do you explain why Norway (with very similar immigration trends) has seen these trends:
I won't argue that detailed point. I don't know the granular facts about Norway and Denmark v Sweden. Clearly - as you say - something has gone uniquely bad with immigration into Sweden. Nonetheless it IS immigration, mainly Muslim (AIUI)
Perhaps it is the source of the migrants?
Setting aside Poles (I don't think they are letting off bombs), most recent Swedish immigrants have been from Iraq, Iran, Syria and Somalia, it looks like. Perhaps this is a different profile to Norway? I genuinely dunno
So why has Sweden had terrible trouble, while Norway has had - essentially - none?
Basically: Norway (and to a lesser extent Denmark and Finland) puts a massive amount of emphasis on integration and getting immigrants speaking Norwegian. IIRC Mr Tyndall, when he was living there (and even as a highly paid oil industry worker) was required to take Norwegian lessons. They also go to a great deal of trouble to make sure that they don't let ghettos form. Basically, if you're a Syrian refugee, you probably won't find yourself with other Syrian refugees. But on the other hand, this seems to work: employment rates for Eritreans / Syrians / are pretty close to those for the native born.
Sweden, by contrast, welcomed everyone and then chucked them in grim housing estates in Lund and the outskirts of Stockholm, without any skills or any significant likelihood of integrating or even earning a living.
A very positive approach, and one reason that migrant groups here that disperse around the country and have good language skills integrate so well, for example the Filipinos. There were just 18 000 in the 1980s but are now 200 000, so a rather under the radar group. Many work in health and social care, and employment creates dispersal. Great to work with too. Another aspect aiding integration is gender, as proportionally quite female.
Over time and with the right government policies migrants integrate well. Our new F2 doctor is an example. Ethnically Somali, born in Sweden, lived in Leicester 20 years, medical school in Romania, now back here, clearly looks Somali, but culturally now very British. Great doctor and attitude.
Of course Norwegian is a ridiculously easy language to learn. If you can speak English and German, you are already just about there.
On Swadlincote, the local MP was one of the handful who voted against sanctions against Boris. Don't know how well known this was locally but might not have helped.
Morning all.
Not up early enough. What happened in Swad?
The last story I heard from there was the student who 'lost control' of her car (ie drove way too fast for the foggy, freezing conditions) in late Jan, hit a tree and rolled and rolled it and put herself in hospital with a hairgrip embedded in her skull. Media reporting: don't wear hairgrips whilst driving.
On Swadlincote, the local MP was one of the handful who voted against sanctions against Boris. Don't know how well known this was locally but might not have helped.
Andrew Bridgen next door too. Swadlincote is part of our patch on some measures.
There has been a lot of change in NW Leics over the years that does make it a classic Red Wall/Old Coalfield type constituency, with lots of new housing, and warehousing type industry relating to the Airport (which is a major freight hub, and the only one that works all night).
Batley East (2021 councillor being replaced): Lab: 73.7 (+6.1) Con 13.5 (-8.8) LD 5.8 (+3.1) Grn 4.8 (-1.1) Others 2.2 (+0.6)
Baselined on 2023, when the Tories nearly snatched it with an Asian candidate, you could claim a Con-> Lab swing of 30%, but that's not the norm, so let's not.
The stereotype of the Red Wall is further north but, tbh, this is the sort of bellwether seat that the Tories should be worried about: owner-occupiers, outer suburban, light industry and service industries, car-dominated, not overly prosperous but not particularly poor either. I used to work in Burton (the adjacent town) and many of the people in junior jobs at our company lived in Swad.
The East Midlands has been the area with the smallest swingback to Labour. If somewhere like Swad is going back to Labour with a 30% gain then the Conservatives are toast.
Also Burton was a Labour seat until not that long ago.
Equally, one thing to remember is you do have quite a lot of professionals from Derby and Nottingham moving into Swadlincote because it’s cheaper and has good transport links to both. So it is gradually trending Labour anyway.
Good morning
This result from last night in Wales seems surprising
Do we know anything about the Independent candidate? Possibly a People's Voice type splitting the vote?
I really don't but both Labour and Plaid losing vote share to this extent is unexpected
If I read the runes aright (it's really hard to find any info) the independent candidate is a former mayor of Blackwood and a popular local campaigner.
Including the decision of the Tories and Lib Dems to stand where previously it was a straight Plaid/Lab fight I don't think the Lab/Plaid loss of vote share is quite as significant as it looked at first glance.
What might perhaps be more significant is it shows inroads can be made to the Labour vote when other parties make the effort.
The stereotype of the Red Wall is further north but, tbh, this is the sort of bellwether seat that the Tories should be worried about: owner-occupiers, outer suburban, light industry and service industries, car-dominated, not overly prosperous but not particularly poor either. I used to work in Burton (the adjacent town) and many of the people in junior jobs at our company lived in Swad.
The East Midlands has been the area with the smallest swingback to Labour. If somewhere like Swad is going back to Labour with a 30% gain then the Conservatives are toast.
Also Burton was a Labour seat until not that long ago.
Equally, one thing to remember is you do have quite a lot of professionals from Derby and Nottingham moving into Swadlincote because it’s cheaper and has good transport links to both. So it is gradually trending Labour anyway.
Good morning
This result from last night in Wales seems surprising
The stereotype of the Red Wall is further north but, tbh, this is the sort of bellwether seat that the Tories should be worried about: owner-occupiers, outer suburban, light industry and service industries, car-dominated, not overly prosperous but not particularly poor either. I used to work in Burton (the adjacent town) and many of the people in junior jobs at our company lived in Swad.
The East Midlands has been the area with the smallest swingback to Labour. If somewhere like Swad is going back to Labour with a 30% gain then the Conservatives are toast.
Also Burton was a Labour seat until not that long ago.
Equally, one thing to remember is you do have quite a lot of professionals from Derby and Nottingham moving into Swadlincote because it’s cheaper and has good transport links to both. So it is gradually trending Labour anyway.
Good morning
This result from last night in Wales seems surprising
The stereotype of the Red Wall is further north but, tbh, this is the sort of bellwether seat that the Tories should be worried about: owner-occupiers, outer suburban, light industry and service industries, car-dominated, not overly prosperous but not particularly poor either. I used to work in Burton (the adjacent town) and many of the people in junior jobs at our company lived in Swad.
The East Midlands has been the area with the smallest swingback to Labour. If somewhere like Swad is going back to Labour with a 30% gain then the Conservatives are toast.
Also Burton was a Labour seat until not that long ago.
Equally, one thing to remember is you do have quite a lot of professionals from Derby and Nottingham moving into Swadlincote because it’s cheaper and has good transport links to both. So it is gradually trending Labour anyway.
Good morning
This result from last night in Wales seems surprising
On topic, Labour are certainly going full blaze for Mid Beds. A 'personal' email from Labour's candidate has gone out to all members tonight, seeking support both financial and on the doorstep. I don't recall getting one of those for either Selby or Somerton & Frome.
Yes, I've just signed up for the canvass session emails - they're doing three a day in different part of mid-Beds. Hoping to spend some time there in September.
From what I’ve seen he looks to be a decent candidate with a good profile for the seat.
Very interested to hear some on the ground info; I find this one very difficult to call.
I would expect a blue reversion at the GE regardless of a LD or Lab win though.
Possibly, or possibly not.
Con in 3rd place is as possible as 1st IMO. It is hard to see why anyone wants to vote Tory at the moment.
How does that demonstrate they are worried? Clearly they think they don’t need more time leafleting every house multiple times.
I mean, it’s a publicity stunt, but it’s not proof of worry.
They want a short campaign so Labour don't erode their current advantage.
We’ve effectively had a very long campaign because everyone’s been campaigning since Dorries announced her departure. It’s been one of the longest by-election campaigns in history.
It’s usually the holding party that wants to shorten the campaign. The opposition calling for the election sooner is, if anything, a sign of confidence, not worry.
But I don’t think it’s either of those. I think it’s just a way to get some headlines and bang home the message that Dorries spent ages not doing anything.
I mean. Just look at the graphs. The first graph shows swedish sexual offences against women, including rape
The second graph shows Swedish immigration. The purple line is migration into Sweden
If it's *all* about immigration, how do you explain why Norway (with very similar immigration trends) has seen these trends:
I won't argue that detailed point. I don't know the granular facts about Norway and Denmark v Sweden. Clearly - as you say - something has gone uniquely bad with immigration into Sweden. Nonetheless it IS immigration, mainly Muslim (AIUI)
Perhaps it is the source of the migrants?
Setting aside Poles (I don't think they are letting off bombs), most recent Swedish immigrants have been from Iraq, Iran, Syria and Somalia, it looks like. Perhaps this is a different profile to Norway? I genuinely dunno
I would suggest that - as I have said before - it is not to do with where the immigrants come from but how they are hanlded once they arrive in the country. There are very large numbers of immigrants arriving in Norway from the countries you mention. The difference is that the Norwegian Government has what you might call a 'tough love' system. Anyone wanting to settle in Norway has to undertake 300 hours (up from 200 hours when I worked there) of compulsory Norwegian language and culture lessons. Even if you are doing a couple of hours every single week that is still nearly 3 years of compulsory lessons.
And asylum seekers are not allowed to just live anywhere. To avoid the formation of ghettos or areas of dominant immigrant population they are told which county they have to live in for the first few years.
The system works. I have never been in a country where the immigrant population was so well integrated. And it is a ciculcular thing. Because the integration is so good the acceptance of large numbers of immigrants is very high amongst the Norwegian population in general. So the immigrants feel more welcome and so there is a much better relationship.
Of course I am sure it is nopt all plain sailing all the time and sadly you still get lunatics like Anders Brevik. But as I said at the time - indeed I think in conversation with you - it is ironic that he was railing against immigration when Norway is one of the most integrated countries in Europe - and thoroughly Norwegian.
Some societies are going to have to study Norway's success as a matter of some urgency.
Of course being a very wealthy country probably helps, too.
Fertility rates that low really will result in extraordinary population declines in future generations (absent a large change in migration policy).
0.70 means almost a 70% decline in population from one generation to the next (assuming 2.1 as replacement rate).
It's a bit of a slow motion car crash as well as fewer children reduces costs to society for 18 years or so, after which you end up realising you have no one left to work and pay taxes.
It makes our demographic challenge (fertility rate around 1.5 but with large scale immigration of people of working age) look like a small bump in the road.
The stereotype of the Red Wall is further north but, tbh, this is the sort of bellwether seat that the Tories should be worried about: owner-occupiers, outer suburban, light industry and service industries, car-dominated, not overly prosperous but not particularly poor either. I used to work in Burton (the adjacent town) and many of the people in junior jobs at our company lived in Swad.
The East Midlands has been the area with the smallest swingback to Labour. If somewhere like Swad is going back to Labour with a 30% gain then the Conservatives are toast.
Also Burton was a Labour seat until not that long ago.
Equally, one thing to remember is you do have quite a lot of professionals from Derby and Nottingham moving into Swadlincote because it’s cheaper and has good transport links to both. So it is gradually trending Labour anyway.
Good morning
This result from last night in Wales seems surprising
I mean. Just look at the graphs. The first graph shows swedish sexual offences against women, including rape
The second graph shows Swedish immigration. The purple line is migration into Sweden
If it's *all* about immigration, how do you explain why Norway (with very similar immigration trends) has seen these trends:
I won't argue that detailed point. I don't know the granular facts about Norway and Denmark v Sweden. Clearly - as you say - something has gone uniquely bad with immigration into Sweden. Nonetheless it IS immigration, mainly Muslim (AIUI)
Perhaps it is the source of the migrants?
Setting aside Poles (I don't think they are letting off bombs), most recent Swedish immigrants have been from Iraq, Iran, Syria and Somalia, it looks like. Perhaps this is a different profile to Norway? I genuinely dunno
So why has Sweden had terrible trouble, while Norway has had - essentially - none?
Basically: Norway (and to a lesser extent Denmark and Finland) puts a massive amount of emphasis on integration and getting immigrants speaking Norwegian. IIRC Mr Tyndall, when he was living there (and even as a highly paid oil industry worker) was required to take Norwegian lessons. They also go to a great deal of trouble to make sure that they don't let ghettos form. Basically, if you're a Syrian refugee, you probably won't find yourself with other Syrian refugees. But on the other hand, this seems to work: employment rates for Eritreans / Syrians / are pretty close to those for the native born.
Sweden, by contrast, welcomed everyone and then chucked them in grim housing estates in Lund and the outskirts of Stockholm, without any skills or any significant likelihood of integrating or even earning a living.
A very positive approach, and one reason that migrant groups here that disperse around the country and have good language skills integrate so well, for example the Filipinos. There were just 18 000 in the 1980s but are now 200 000, so a rather under the radar group. Many work in health and social care, and employment creates dispersal. Great to work with too. Another aspect aiding integration is gender, as proportionally quite female.
Over time and with the right government policies migrants integrate well. Our new F2 doctor is an example. Ethnically Somali, born in Sweden, lived in Leicester 20 years, medical school in Romania, now back here, clearly looks Somali, but culturally now very British. Great doctor and attitude.
Something that is very important to the UK national identitity, and I speak as an expert in Operational Research, is queueing. I propose that all migrants have to undertake 300 hours of classes in Queueing Theory.
I mean. Just look at the graphs. The first graph shows swedish sexual offences against women, including rape
The second graph shows Swedish immigration. The purple line is migration into Sweden
If it's *all* about immigration, how do you explain why Norway (with very similar immigration trends) has seen these trends:
I won't argue that detailed point. I don't know the granular facts about Norway and Denmark v Sweden. Clearly - as you say - something has gone uniquely bad with immigration into Sweden. Nonetheless it IS immigration, mainly Muslim (AIUI)
Perhaps it is the source of the migrants?
Setting aside Poles (I don't think they are letting off bombs), most recent Swedish immigrants have been from Iraq, Iran, Syria and Somalia, it looks like. Perhaps this is a different profile to Norway? I genuinely dunno
So why has Sweden had terrible trouble, while Norway has had - essentially - none?
Basically: Norway (and to a lesser extent Denmark and Finland) puts a massive amount of emphasis on integration and getting immigrants speaking Norwegian. IIRC Mr Tyndall, when he was living there (and even as a highly paid oil industry worker) was required to take Norwegian lessons. They also go to a great deal of trouble to make sure that they don't let ghettos form. Basically, if you're a Syrian refugee, you probably won't find yourself with other Syrian refugees. But on the other hand, this seems to work: employment rates for Eritreans / Syrians / are pretty close to those for the native born.
Sweden, by contrast, welcomed everyone and then chucked them in grim housing estates in Lund and the outskirts of Stockholm, without any skills or any significant likelihood of integrating or even earning a living.
A very positive approach, and one reason that migrant groups here that disperse around the country and have good language skills integrate so well, for example the Filipinos. There were just 18 000 in the 1980s but are now 200 000, so a rather under the radar group. Many work in health and social care, and employment creates dispersal. Great to work with too. Another aspect aiding integration is gender, as proportionally quite female.
Over time and with the right government policies migrants integrate well. Our new F2 doctor is an example. Ethnically Somali, born in Sweden, lived in Leicester 20 years, medical school in Romania, now back here, clearly looks Somali, but culturally now very British. Great doctor and attitude.
Something that is very important to the UK national identitity, and I speak as an expert in Operational Research, is queueing. I propose that all migrants have to undertake 300 hours of classes in Queueing Theory.
Her experience of queuing makes her ideal for NHS work!
How does that demonstrate they are worried? Clearly they think they don’t need more time leafleting every house multiple times.
I mean, it’s a publicity stunt, but it’s not proof of worry.
They want a short campaign so Labour don't erode their current advantage.
We’ve effectively had a very long campaign because everyone’s been campaigning since Dorries announced her departure. It’s been one of the longest by-election campaigns in history.
It’s usually the holding party that wants to shorten the campaign. The opposition calling for the election sooner is, if anything, a sign of confidence, not worry.
But I don’t think it’s either of those. I think it’s just a way to get some headlines and bang home the message that Dorries spent ages not doing anything.
It is just another opportunity to get publicity for their campaign and also to say to the electors it is us who are the challengers (whether true or not). Nothing more, nothing less.
I mean. Just look at the graphs. The first graph shows swedish sexual offences against women, including rape
The second graph shows Swedish immigration. The purple line is migration into Sweden
If it's *all* about immigration, how do you explain why Norway (with very similar immigration trends) has seen these trends:
I won't argue that detailed point. I don't know the granular facts about Norway and Denmark v Sweden. Clearly - as you say - something has gone uniquely bad with immigration into Sweden. Nonetheless it IS immigration, mainly Muslim (AIUI)
Perhaps it is the source of the migrants?
Setting aside Poles (I don't think they are letting off bombs), most recent Swedish immigrants have been from Iraq, Iran, Syria and Somalia, it looks like. Perhaps this is a different profile to Norway? I genuinely dunno
So why has Sweden had terrible trouble, while Norway has had - essentially - none?
Basically: Norway (and to a lesser extent Denmark and Finland) puts a massive amount of emphasis on integration and getting immigrants speaking Norwegian. IIRC Mr Tyndall, when he was living there (and even as a highly paid oil industry worker) was required to take Norwegian lessons. They also go to a great deal of trouble to make sure that they don't let ghettos form. Basically, if you're a Syrian refugee, you probably won't find yourself with other Syrian refugees. But on the other hand, this seems to work: employment rates for Eritreans / Syrians / are pretty close to those for the native born.
Sweden, by contrast, welcomed everyone and then chucked them in grim housing estates in Lund and the outskirts of Stockholm, without any skills or any significant likelihood of integrating or even earning a living.
A very positive approach, and one reason that migrant groups here that disperse around the country and have good language skills integrate so well, for example the Filipinos. There were just 18 000 in the 1980s but are now 200 000, so a rather under the radar group. Many work in health and social care, and employment creates dispersal. Great to work with too. Another aspect aiding integration is gender, as proportionally quite female.
Over time and with the right government policies migrants integrate well. Our new F2 doctor is an example. Ethnically Somali, born in Sweden, lived in Leicester 20 years, medical school in Romania, now back here, clearly looks Somali, but culturally now very British. Great doctor and attitude.
Something that is very important to the UK national identitity, and I speak as an expert in Operational Research, is queueing. I propose that all migrants have to undertake 300 hours of classes in Queueing Theory.
Her experience of queuing makes her ideal for NHS work!
A highly trained workforce is a happy workforce. As a bunch of vapid managers like to say, while they treat everyone else like guano.
The stereotype of the Red Wall is further north but, tbh, this is the sort of bellwether seat that the Tories should be worried about: owner-occupiers, outer suburban, light industry and service industries, car-dominated, not overly prosperous but not particularly poor either. I used to work in Burton (the adjacent town) and many of the people in junior jobs at our company lived in Swad.
The East Midlands has been the area with the smallest swingback to Labour. If somewhere like Swad is going back to Labour with a 30% gain then the Conservatives are toast.
Also Burton was a Labour seat until not that long ago.
Equally, one thing to remember is you do have quite a lot of professionals from Derby and Nottingham moving into Swadlincote because it’s cheaper and has good transport links to both. So it is gradually trending Labour anyway.
Good morning
This result from last night in Wales seems surprising
Sherwood may trend similarly to some extent, since the
(posted early)
... sorry, scrub that.
I was referring to the Southern end of Ashfield ie Hucknall, which is on the Nottingham tram system and seems to have changed quite significantly (looking through the lens of relative house prices).
I mean. Just look at the graphs. The first graph shows swedish sexual offences against women, including rape
The second graph shows Swedish immigration. The purple line is migration into Sweden
If it's *all* about immigration, how do you explain why Norway (with very similar immigration trends) has seen these trends:
I won't argue that detailed point. I don't know the granular facts about Norway and Denmark v Sweden. Clearly - as you say - something has gone uniquely bad with immigration into Sweden. Nonetheless it IS immigration, mainly Muslim (AIUI)
Perhaps it is the source of the migrants?
Setting aside Poles (I don't think they are letting off bombs), most recent Swedish immigrants have been from Iraq, Iran, Syria and Somalia, it looks like. Perhaps this is a different profile to Norway? I genuinely dunno
So why has Sweden had terrible trouble, while Norway has had - essentially - none?
Basically: Norway (and to a lesser extent Denmark and Finland) puts a massive amount of emphasis on integration and getting immigrants speaking Norwegian. IIRC Mr Tyndall, when he was living there (and even as a highly paid oil industry worker) was required to take Norwegian lessons. They also go to a great deal of trouble to make sure that they don't let ghettos form. Basically, if you're a Syrian refugee, you probably won't find yourself with other Syrian refugees. But on the other hand, this seems to work: employment rates for Eritreans / Syrians / are pretty close to those for the native born.
Sweden, by contrast, welcomed everyone and then chucked them in grim housing estates in Lund and the outskirts of Stockholm, without any skills or any significant likelihood of integrating or even earning a living.
A very positive approach, and one reason that migrant groups here that disperse around the country and have good language skills integrate so well, for example the Filipinos. There were just 18 000 in the 1980s but are now 200 000, so a rather under the radar group. Many work in health and social care, and employment creates dispersal. Great to work with too. Another aspect aiding integration is gender, as proportionally quite female.
Over time and with the right government policies migrants integrate well. Our new F2 doctor is an example. Ethnically Somali, born in Sweden, lived in Leicester 20 years, medical school in Romania, now back here, clearly looks Somali, but culturally now very British. Great doctor and attitude.
Something that is very important to the UK national identitity, and I speak as an expert in Operational Research, is queueing. I propose that all migrants have to undertake 300 hours of classes in Queueing Theory.
Her experience of queuing makes her ideal for NHS work!
A highly trained workforce is a happy workforce. As a bunch of vapid managers like to say, while they treat everyone else like guano.
I mean. Just look at the graphs. The first graph shows swedish sexual offences against women, including rape
The second graph shows Swedish immigration. The purple line is migration into Sweden
If it's *all* about immigration, how do you explain why Norway (with very similar immigration trends) has seen these trends:
I won't argue that detailed point. I don't know the granular facts about Norway and Denmark v Sweden. Clearly - as you say - something has gone uniquely bad with immigration into Sweden. Nonetheless it IS immigration, mainly Muslim (AIUI)
Perhaps it is the source of the migrants?
Setting aside Poles (I don't think they are letting off bombs), most recent Swedish immigrants have been from Iraq, Iran, Syria and Somalia, it looks like. Perhaps this is a different profile to Norway? I genuinely dunno
I would suggest that - as I have said before - it is not to do with where the immigrants come from but how they are hanlded once they arrive in the country. There are very large numbers of immigrants arriving in Norway from the countries you mention. The difference is that the Norwegian Government has what you might call a 'tough love' system. Anyone wanting to settle in Norway has to undertake 300 hours (up from 200 hours when I worked there) of compulsory Norwegian language and culture lessons. Even if you are doing a couple of hours every single week that is still nearly 3 years of compulsory lessons.
And asylum seekers are not allowed to just live anywhere. To avoid the formation of ghettos or areas of dominant immigrant population they are told which county they have to live in for the first few years.
The system works. I have never been in a country where the immigrant population was so well integrated. And it is a ciculcular thing. Because the integration is so good the acceptance of large numbers of immigrants is very high amongst the Norwegian population in general. So the immigrants feel more welcome and so there is a much better relationship.
Of course I am sure it is nopt all plain sailing all the time and sadly you still get lunatics like Anders Brevik. But as I said at the time - indeed I think in conversation with you - it is ironic that he was railing against immigration when Norway is one of the most integrated countries in Europe - and thoroughly Norwegian.
Some societies are going to have to study Norway's success as a matter of some urgency.
Of course being a very wealthy country probably helps, too.
Fertility rates that low really will result in extraordinary population declines in future generations (absent a large change in migration policy).
0.70 means almost a 70% decline in population from one generation to the next (assuming 2.1 as replacement rate).
It's a bit of a slow motion car crash as well as fewer children reduces costs to society for 18 years or so, after which you end up realising you have no one left to work and pay taxes.
It makes our demographic challenge (fertility rate around 1.5 but with large scale immigration of people of working age) look like a small bump in the road.
I suspect Korea will be bailed out by reunification at some point, when North Korea regime falls.
The issue is not dissimilar across most of East Asia though. The figures in Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, even China and Japan are heading the same way.
The combination of high levels of education, long hours school and work culture, prosperity but still the attitudes to women of a half century ago is not one that encourages fertility. Women expected to work, supervise children over homework and still do all the cooking and housework while the man of the house plays golf is not one that appeals to many women. Korean men need to catch up with the modern world.
I mean. Just look at the graphs. The first graph shows swedish sexual offences against women, including rape
The second graph shows Swedish immigration. The purple line is migration into Sweden
If it's *all* about immigration, how do you explain why Norway (with very similar immigration trends) has seen these trends:
I won't argue that detailed point. I don't know the granular facts about Norway and Denmark v Sweden. Clearly - as you say - something has gone uniquely bad with immigration into Sweden. Nonetheless it IS immigration, mainly Muslim (AIUI)
Perhaps it is the source of the migrants?
Setting aside Poles (I don't think they are letting off bombs), most recent Swedish immigrants have been from Iraq, Iran, Syria and Somalia, it looks like. Perhaps this is a different profile to Norway? I genuinely dunno
So why has Sweden had terrible trouble, while Norway has had - essentially - none?
Basically: Norway (and to a lesser extent Denmark and Finland) puts a massive amount of emphasis on integration and getting immigrants speaking Norwegian. IIRC Mr Tyndall, when he was living there (and even as a highly paid oil industry worker) was required to take Norwegian lessons. They also go to a great deal of trouble to make sure that they don't let ghettos form. Basically, if you're a Syrian refugee, you probably won't find yourself with other Syrian refugees. But on the other hand, this seems to work: employment rates for Eritreans / Syrians / are pretty close to those for the native born.
Sweden, by contrast, welcomed everyone and then chucked them in grim housing estates in Lund and the outskirts of Stockholm, without any skills or any significant likelihood of integrating or even earning a living.
A very positive approach, and one reason that migrant groups here that disperse around the country and have good language skills integrate so well, for example the Filipinos. There were just 18 000 in the 1980s but are now 200 000, so a rather under the radar group. Many work in health and social care, and employment creates dispersal. Great to work with too. Another aspect aiding integration is gender, as proportionally quite female.
Over time and with the right government policies migrants integrate well. Our new F2 doctor is an example. Ethnically Somali, born in Sweden, lived in Leicester 20 years, medical school in Romania, now back here, clearly looks Somali, but culturally now very British. Great doctor and attitude.
Something that is very important to the UK national identitity, and I speak as an expert in Operational Research, is queueing. I propose that all migrants have to undertake 300 hours of classes in Queueing Theory.
Her experience of queuing makes her ideal for NHS work!
A highly trained workforce is a happy workforce. As a bunch of vapid managers like to say, while they treat everyone else like guano.
We're still on the DfE...
Caring about your job involves thinking Thinking leads to anger Anger leads to the Dark Side
I mean. Just look at the graphs. The first graph shows swedish sexual offences against women, including rape
The second graph shows Swedish immigration. The purple line is migration into Sweden
If it's *all* about immigration, how do you explain why Norway (with very similar immigration trends) has seen these trends:
I won't argue that detailed point. I don't know the granular facts about Norway and Denmark v Sweden. Clearly - as you say - something has gone uniquely bad with immigration into Sweden. Nonetheless it IS immigration, mainly Muslim (AIUI)
Perhaps it is the source of the migrants?
Setting aside Poles (I don't think they are letting off bombs), most recent Swedish immigrants have been from Iraq, Iran, Syria and Somalia, it looks like. Perhaps this is a different profile to Norway? I genuinely dunno
So why has Sweden had terrible trouble, while Norway has had - essentially - none?
Basically: Norway (and to a lesser extent Denmark and Finland) puts a massive amount of emphasis on integration and getting immigrants speaking Norwegian. IIRC Mr Tyndall, when he was living there (and even as a highly paid oil industry worker) was required to take Norwegian lessons. They also go to a great deal of trouble to make sure that they don't let ghettos form. Basically, if you're a Syrian refugee, you probably won't find yourself with other Syrian refugees. But on the other hand, this seems to work: employment rates for Eritreans / Syrians / are pretty close to those for the native born.
Sweden, by contrast, welcomed everyone and then chucked them in grim housing estates in Lund and the outskirts of Stockholm, without any skills or any significant likelihood of integrating or even earning a living.
A very positive approach, and one reason that migrant groups here that disperse around the country and have good language skills integrate so well, for example the Filipinos. There were just 18 000 in the 1980s but are now 200 000, so a rather under the radar group. Many work in health and social care, and employment creates dispersal. Great to work with too. Another aspect aiding integration is gender, as proportionally quite female.
Over time and with the right government policies migrants integrate well. Our new F2 doctor is an example. Ethnically Somali, born in Sweden, lived in Leicester 20 years, medical school in Romania, now back here, clearly looks Somali, but culturally now very British. Great doctor and attitude.
Something that is very important to the UK national identitity, and I speak as an expert in Operational Research, is queueing. I propose that all migrants have to undertake 300 hours of classes in Queueing Theory.
Her experience of queuing makes her ideal for NHS work!
A highly trained workforce is a happy workforce. As a bunch of vapid managers like to say, while they treat everyone else like guano.
We're still on the DfE...
Caring about your job involves thinking Thinking leads to anger Anger leads to the Dark Side
As we used to say at DB
How would they know? They've never tried part one.
They've definitely made it to the end state regardless, however.
I mean. Just look at the graphs. The first graph shows swedish sexual offences against women, including rape
The second graph shows Swedish immigration. The purple line is migration into Sweden
If it's *all* about immigration, how do you explain why Norway (with very similar immigration trends) has seen these trends:
I won't argue that detailed point. I don't know the granular facts about Norway and Denmark v Sweden. Clearly - as you say - something has gone uniquely bad with immigration into Sweden. Nonetheless it IS immigration, mainly Muslim (AIUI)
Perhaps it is the source of the migrants?
Setting aside Poles (I don't think they are letting off bombs), most recent Swedish immigrants have been from Iraq, Iran, Syria and Somalia, it looks like. Perhaps this is a different profile to Norway? I genuinely dunno
So why has Sweden had terrible trouble, while Norway has had - essentially - none?
Basically: Norway (and to a lesser extent Denmark and Finland) puts a massive amount of emphasis on integration and getting immigrants speaking Norwegian. IIRC Mr Tyndall, when he was living there (and even as a highly paid oil industry worker) was required to take Norwegian lessons. They also go to a great deal of trouble to make sure that they don't let ghettos form. Basically, if you're a Syrian refugee, you probably won't find yourself with other Syrian refugees. But on the other hand, this seems to work: employment rates for Eritreans / Syrians / are pretty close to those for the native born.
Sweden, by contrast, welcomed everyone and then chucked them in grim housing estates in Lund and the outskirts of Stockholm, without any skills or any significant likelihood of integrating or even earning a living.
A very positive approach, and one reason that migrant groups here that disperse around the country and have good language skills integrate so well, for example the Filipinos. There were just 18 000 in the 1980s but are now 200 000, so a rather under the radar group. Many work in health and social care, and employment creates dispersal. Great to work with too. Another aspect aiding integration is gender, as proportionally quite female.
Over time and with the right government policies migrants integrate well. Our new F2 doctor is an example. Ethnically Somali, born in Sweden, lived in Leicester 20 years, medical school in Romania, now back here, clearly looks Somali, but culturally now very British. Great doctor and attitude.
Something that is very important to the UK national identitity, and I speak as an expert in Operational Research, is queueing. I propose that all migrants have to undertake 300 hours of classes in Queueing Theory.
Her experience of queuing makes her ideal for NHS work!
A highly trained workforce is a happy workforce. As a bunch of vapid managers like to say, while they treat everyone else like guano.
We're still on the DfE...
Caring about your job involves thinking Thinking leads to anger Anger leads to the Dark Side
As we used to say at DB
How would they know? They've never tried part one.
They've definitely made it to the end state regardless, however.
Now you have me thinking of how Darth Malgus would run the DfE
Hmmm. So this (from the BBC's live reporting) is why the panic.
Nick Gibb of course, so treat with caution, but here he does seem to be saying there was a structural collapse:
Over the summer other evidence has emerged... that RAAC that had been regarded as safe actually failed, and that's why we took swift action to change the guidance and to change our approach," Gibb adds.
Very foolish of them to drip feed information out like this. It would be better to say what happened and when.
Reading between the lines, looks like somebody was doing repairs and the thing just disintegrated. But presumably that only happened in the last few days or even Susan Acland-Hood might have twigged there was a problem earlier.
I mean. Just look at the graphs. The first graph shows swedish sexual offences against women, including rape
The second graph shows Swedish immigration. The purple line is migration into Sweden
If it's *all* about immigration, how do you explain why Norway (with very similar immigration trends) has seen these trends:
I won't argue that detailed point. I don't know the granular facts about Norway and Denmark v Sweden. Clearly - as you say - something has gone uniquely bad with immigration into Sweden. Nonetheless it IS immigration, mainly Muslim (AIUI)
Perhaps it is the source of the migrants?
Setting aside Poles (I don't think they are letting off bombs), most recent Swedish immigrants have been from Iraq, Iran, Syria and Somalia, it looks like. Perhaps this is a different profile to Norway? I genuinely dunno
So why has Sweden had terrible trouble, while Norway has had - essentially - none?
Basically: Norway (and to a lesser extent Denmark and Finland) puts a massive amount of emphasis on integration and getting immigrants speaking Norwegian. IIRC Mr Tyndall, when he was living there (and even as a highly paid oil industry worker) was required to take Norwegian lessons. They also go to a great deal of trouble to make sure that they don't let ghettos form. Basically, if you're a Syrian refugee, you probably won't find yourself with other Syrian refugees. But on the other hand, this seems to work: employment rates for Eritreans / Syrians / are pretty close to those for the native born.
Sweden, by contrast, welcomed everyone and then chucked them in grim housing estates in Lund and the outskirts of Stockholm, without any skills or any significant likelihood of integrating or even earning a living.
A very positive approach, and one reason that migrant groups here that disperse around the country and have good language skills integrate so well, for example the Filipinos. There were just 18 000 in the 1980s but are now 200 000, so a rather under the radar group. Many work in health and social care, and employment creates dispersal. Great to work with too. Another aspect aiding integration is gender, as proportionally quite female.
Over time and with the right government policies migrants integrate well. Our new F2 doctor is an example. Ethnically Somali, born in Sweden, lived in Leicester 20 years, medical school in Romania, now back here, clearly looks Somali, but culturally now very British. Great doctor and attitude.
Something that is very important to the UK national identitity, and I speak as an expert in Operational Research, is queueing. I propose that all migrants have to undertake 300 hours of classes in Queueing Theory.
Her experience of queuing makes her ideal for NHS work!
A highly trained workforce is a happy workforce. As a bunch of vapid managers like to say, while they treat everyone else like guano.
We're still on the DfE...
Caring about your job involves thinking Thinking leads to anger Anger leads to the Dark Side
As we used to say at DB
How would they know? They've never tried part one.
They've definitely made it to the end state regardless, however.
Now you have me thinking of how Darth Malgus would run the DfE
Hmmm. So this (from the BBC's live reporting) is why the panic.
Nick Gibb of course, so treat with caution, but here he does seem to be saying there was a structural collapse:
Over the summer other evidence has emerged... that RAAC that had been regarded as safe actually failed, and that's why we took swift action to change the guidance and to change our approach," Gibb adds.
Very foolish of them to drip feed information out like this. It would be better to say what happened and when.
Reading between the lines, looks like somebody was doing repairs and the thing just disintegrated. But presumably that only happened in the last few days or even Susan Acland-Hood might have twigged there was a problem earlier.
Materials that are failing through corrosion/decay cannot be given a reliable safe life.
DTD683 has entered the chat.
EDIT: I would suspect a problem so big that everyone *had* to ignore it.
This RAAC thing seems like a nightmare. I expect schools are just the tip of the iceberg, googling it seems social housing built in the 50s - 80s might be affected too, possibly some hospitals and a smattering of private buildings too ? Probably some asbestos nearby too...
Looks like the building equivalent of an aero bar.
I mean. Just look at the graphs. The first graph shows swedish sexual offences against women, including rape
The second graph shows Swedish immigration. The purple line is migration into Sweden
If it's *all* about immigration, how do you explain why Norway (with very similar immigration trends) has seen these trends:
I won't argue that detailed point. I don't know the granular facts about Norway and Denmark v Sweden. Clearly - as you say - something has gone uniquely bad with immigration into Sweden. Nonetheless it IS immigration, mainly Muslim (AIUI)
Perhaps it is the source of the migrants?
Setting aside Poles (I don't think they are letting off bombs), most recent Swedish immigrants have been from Iraq, Iran, Syria and Somalia, it looks like. Perhaps this is a different profile to Norway? I genuinely dunno
I would suggest that - as I have said before - it is not to do with where the immigrants come from but how they are hanlded once they arrive in the country. There are very large numbers of immigrants arriving in Norway from the countries you mention. The difference is that the Norwegian Government has what you might call a 'tough love' system. Anyone wanting to settle in Norway has to undertake 300 hours (up from 200 hours when I worked there) of compulsory Norwegian language and culture lessons. Even if you are doing a couple of hours every single week that is still nearly 3 years of compulsory lessons.
And asylum seekers are not allowed to just live anywhere. To avoid the formation of ghettos or areas of dominant immigrant population they are told which county they have to live in for thAfre first few years.
The system works. I have never been in a country where the immigrant population was so well integrated. And it is a ciculcular thing. Because the integration is so good the acceptance of large numbers of immigrants is very high amongst the Norwegian population in general. So the immigrants feel more welcome and so there is a much better relationship.
Of course I am sure it is nopt all plain sailing all the time and sadly you still get lunatics like Anders Brevik. But as I said at the time - indeed I think in conversation with you - it is ironic that he was railing against immigration when Norway is one of the most integrated countries in Europe - and thoroughly Norwegian.
Some societies are going to have to study Norway's success as a matter of some urgency.
Of course being a very wealthy country probably helps, too.
Fertility rates that low really will result in extraordinary population declines in future generations (absent a large change in migration policy).
0.70 means almost a 70% decline in population from one generation to the next (assuming 2.1 as replacement rate).
It's a bit of a slow motion car crash as well as fewer children reduces costs to society for 18 years or so, after which you end up realising you have no one left to work and pay taxes.
It makes our demographic challenge (fertility rate around 1.5 but with large scale immigration of people of working age) look like a small bump in the road.
I suspect Korea will be bailed out by reunification at some point, when North Korea regime falls.
The issue is not dissimilar across most of East Asia though. The figures in Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, even China and Japan are heading the same way.
The combination of high levels of education, long hours school and work culture, prosperity but still the attitudes to women of a half century ago is not one that encourages fertility. Women expected to work, supervise children over homework and still do all the cooking and housework while the man of the house plays golf is not one that appeals to many women. Korean men need to catch up with the modern world.
Africa still has a largely traditional view of the sexes and the highest fertility rate of any continent in the world
I mean. Just look at the graphs. The first graph shows swedish sexual offences against women, including rape
The second graph shows Swedish immigration. The purple line is migration into Sweden
If it's *all* about immigration, how do you explain why Norway (with very similar immigration trends) has seen these trends:
I won't argue that detailed point. I don't know the granular facts about Norway and Denmark v Sweden. Clearly - as you say - something has gone uniquely bad with immigration into Sweden. Nonetheless it IS immigration, mainly Muslim (AIUI)
Perhaps it is the source of the migrants?
Setting aside Poles (I don't think they are letting off bombs), most recent Swedish immigrants have been from Iraq, Iran, Syria and Somalia, it looks like. Perhaps this is a different profile to Norway? I genuinely dunno
So why has Sweden had terrible trouble, while Norway has had - essentially - none?
Basically: Norway (and to a lesser extent Denmark and Finland) puts a massive amount of emphasis on integration and getting immigrants speaking Norwegian. IIRC Mr Tyndall, when he was living there (and even as a highly paid oil industry worker) was required to take Norwegian lessons. They also go to a great deal of trouble to make sure that they don't let ghettos form. Basically, if you're a Syrian refugee, you probably won't find yourself with other Syrian refugees. But on the other hand, this seems to work: employment rates for Eritreans / Syrians / are pretty close to those for the native born.
Sweden, by contrast, welcomed everyone and then chucked them in grim housing estates in Lund and the outskirts of Stockholm, without any skills or any significant likelihood of integrating or even earning a living.
A very positive approach, and one reason that migrant groups here that disperse around the country and have good language skills integrate so well, for example the Filipinos. There were just 18 000 in the 1980s but are now 200 000, so a rather under the radar group. Many work in health and social care, and employment creates dispersal. Great to work with too. Another aspect aiding integration is gender, as proportionally quite female.
Over time and with the right government policies migrants integrate well. Our new F2 doctor is an example. Ethnically Somali, born in Sweden, lived in Leicester 20 years, medical school in Romania, now back here, clearly looks Somali, but culturally now very British. Great doctor and attitude.
Something that is very important to the UK national identitity, and I speak as an expert in Operational Research, is queueing. I propose that all migrants have to undertake 300 hours of classes in Queueing Theory.
Her experience of queuing makes her ideal for NHS work!
A highly trained workforce is a happy workforce. As a bunch of vapid managers like to say, while they treat everyone else like guano.
We're still on the DfE...
Caring about your job involves thinking Thinking leads to anger Anger leads to the Dark Side
As we used to say at DB
How would they know? They've never tried part one.
They've definitely made it to the end state regardless, however.
Now you have me thinking of how Darth Malgus would run the DfE
A hell of a lot better than the current lot.
His tolerance for failure seems low, according to the various documentaries on him I have watched.
Erudite sarcasm, mixed with volcanic rage, and chopping people into bits with two lightsabers. Definitely an unusual management technique.
This RAAC thing seems like a nightmare. I expect schools are just the tip of the iceberg, googling it seems social housing built in the 50s - 80s might be affected too, possibly some hospitals and a smattering of private buildings too ? Probably some asbestos nearby too...
Looks like the building equivalent of an aero bar.
I'd be most worried about tower blocks and bridges.
However, the latter seem to have preferred reinforced concrete, and of the former quite a number have been demolished.
So basically it's been flagged up for six years but practically nothing has been done about it, and then suddenly three days before large numbers of schools go back the DfE panics without giving any concrete (sorry) information on why.
And yes, hospitals are affected too. As are courts.
This RAAC thing seems like a nightmare. I expect schools are just the tip of the iceberg, googling it seems social housing built in the 50s - 80s might be affected too, possibly some hospitals and a smattering of private buildings too ? Probably some asbestos nearby too...
Looks like the building equivalent of an aero bar.
I'd be most worried about tower blocks and bridges.
However, the latter seem to have preferred reinforced concrete, and of the former quite a number have been demolished.
RAAC isn't a heavyweight structural material - that was its point. Concrete bridges don't, generally, need the light weight.
I mean. Just look at the graphs. The first graph shows swedish sexual offences against women, including rape
The second graph shows Swedish immigration. The purple line is migration into Sweden
If it's *all* about immigration, how do you explain why Norway (with very similar immigration trends) has seen these trends:
I won't argue that detailed point. I don't know the granular facts about Norway and Denmark v Sweden. Clearly - as you say - something has gone uniquely bad with immigration into Sweden. Nonetheless it IS immigration, mainly Muslim (AIUI)
Perhaps it is the source of the migrants?
Setting aside Poles (I don't think they are letting off bombs), most recent Swedish immigrants have been from Iraq, Iran, Syria and Somalia, it looks like. Perhaps this is a different profile to Norway? I genuinely dunno
I would suggest that - as I have said before - it is not to do with where the immigrants come from but how they are hanlded once they arrive in the country. There are very large numbers of immigrants arriving in Norway from the countries you mention. The difference is that the Norwegian Government has what you might call a 'tough love' system. Anyone wanting to settle in Norway has to undertake 300 hours (up from 200 hours when I worked there) of compulsory Norwegian language and culture lessons. Even if you are doing a couple of hours every single week that is still nearly 3 years of compulsory lessons.
And asylum seekers are not allowed to just live anywhere. To avoid the formation of ghettos or areas of dominant immigrant population they are told which county they have to live in for the first few years.
The system works. I have never been in a country where the immigrant population was so well integrated. And it is a ciculcular thing. Because the integration is so good the acceptance of large numbers of immigrants is very high amongst the Norwegian population in general. So the immigrants feel more welcome and so there is a much better relationship.
Of course I am sure it is nopt all plain sailing all the time and sadly you still get lunatics like Anders Brevik. But as I said at the time - indeed I think in conversation with you - it is ironic that he was railing against immigration when Norway is one of the most integrated countries in Europe - and thoroughly Norwegian.
Some societies are going to have to study Norway's success as a matter of some urgency.
Of course being a very wealthy country probably helps, too.
Fertility rates that low really will result in extraordinary population declines in future generations (absent a large change in migration policy).
0.70 means almost a 70% decline in population from one generation to the next (assuming 2.1 as replacement rate).
It's a bit of a slow motion car crash as well as fewer children reduces costs to society for 18 years or so, after which you end up realising you have no one left to work and pay taxes.
It makes our demographic challenge (fertility rate around 1.5 but with large scale immigration of people of working age) look like a small bump in the road.
Yes, looking at the drops coming in South Korea, China etc are remarkable.
This RAAC thing seems like a nightmare. I expect schools are just the tip of the iceberg, googling it seems social housing built in the 50s - 80s might be affected too, possibly some hospitals and a smattering of private buildings too ? Probably some asbestos nearby too...
Looks like the building equivalent of an aero bar.
I'd be most worried about tower blocks and bridges.
However, the latter seem to have preferred reinforced concrete, and of the former quite a number have been demolished.
RAAC isn't a heavyweight structural material - that was its point. Concrete bridges don't, generally, need the light weight.
However, some may have needed the low cost. Particularly on bridges for minor roads across motorways.
Equally, it's less likely I think and should be easier to fix. Is anyone going to care much if the direct road from Eastnor to Bromsberrow is shut for three months while a bridge is replaced?
This RAAC thing seems like a nightmare. I expect schools are just the tip of the iceberg, googling it seems social housing built in the 50s - 80s might be affected too, possibly some hospitals and a smattering of private buildings too ? Probably some asbestos nearby too...
Looks like the building equivalent of an aero bar.
I'd be most worried about tower blocks and bridges.
However, the latter seem to have preferred reinforced concrete, and of the former quite a number have been demolished.
RAAC isn't a heavyweight structural material - that was its point. Concrete bridges don't, generally, need the light weight.
However, some may have needed the low cost. Particularly on bridges for minor roads across motorways.
Equally, it's less likely I think and should be easier to fix. Is anyone going to care much if the direct road from Eastnor to Bromsberrow is shut for three months while a bridge is replaced?
I would be interested to see a bridge that has structural use of RAAC.
Mind you, there are plenty of bridges that are falling down/apart without it.
EDIT: Three months? Are you having a giraffe? Hammersmith Bridge and the Westway say hello.
This RAAC thing seems like a nightmare. I expect schools are just the tip of the iceberg, googling it seems social housing built in the 50s - 80s might be affected too, possibly some hospitals and a smattering of private buildings too ? Probably some asbestos nearby too...
Looks like the building equivalent of an aero bar.
I'd be most worried about tower blocks and bridges.
However, the latter seem to have preferred reinforced concrete, and of the former quite a number have been demolished.
RAAC isn't a heavyweight structural material - that was its point. Concrete bridges don't, generally, need the light weight.
However, some may have needed the low cost. Particularly on bridges for minor roads across motorways.
Equally, it's less likely I think and should be easier to fix. Is anyone going to care much if the direct road from Eastnor to Bromsberrow is shut for three months while a bridge is replaced?
If the nearest post office or GP surgery is in Bromsberrow, then folks in Eastnor will!
Editors note. I have no idea if these are real places or if anyone lives in either!
This RAAC thing seems like a nightmare. I expect schools are just the tip of the iceberg, googling it seems social housing built in the 50s - 80s might be affected too, possibly some hospitals and a smattering of private buildings too ? Probably some asbestos nearby too...
Looks like the building equivalent of an aero bar.
I'd be most worried about tower blocks and bridges.
However, the latter seem to have preferred reinforced concrete, and of the former quite a number have been demolished.
You'd have to be mad to use it for anything load-bearing (though a shiny sixpence says that someone, somewhere, has tried.) It's more a kind of skin around a skeleton of something stronger. In principle, that's fine.
(One way of think about it is that buildings have done the same thing as animals and gone from an exoskeleton to an endoskeleton. Beyond a certain size, the latter works better.)
But compared with more traditional approaches, they're not expected to last as long. And we've been in the Russian Roulette phase of their lifespans for a while now.
This RAAC thing seems like a nightmare. I expect schools are just the tip of the iceberg, googling it seems social housing built in the 50s - 80s might be affected too, possibly some hospitals and a smattering of private buildings too ? Probably some asbestos nearby too...
Looks like the building equivalent of an aero bar.
I'd be most worried about tower blocks and bridges.
However, the latter seem to have preferred reinforced concrete, and of the former quite a number have been demolished.
RAAC isn't a heavyweight structural material - that was its point. Concrete bridges don't, generally, need the light weight.
They also don't need the thermal insulation that the trapped air bubbles gave. Same physics as the woolly jumpers worn by that Scandinavian lady detective on BBC4.
RAAC's not an inherently bad material if you accept that it won't last forever. Whether that is acceptable is another matter.
This RAAC thing seems like a nightmare. I expect schools are just the tip of the iceberg, googling it seems social housing built in the 50s - 80s might be affected too, possibly some hospitals and a smattering of private buildings too ? Probably some asbestos nearby too...
Looks like the building equivalent of an aero bar.
I'd be most worried about tower blocks and bridges.
However, the latter seem to have preferred reinforced concrete, and of the former quite a number have been demolished.
RAAC isn't a heavyweight structural material - that was its point. Concrete bridges don't, generally, need the light weight.
However, some may have needed the low cost. Particularly on bridges for minor roads across motorways.
Equally, it's less likely I think and should be easier to fix. Is anyone going to care much if the direct road from Eastnor to Bromsberrow is shut for three months while a bridge is replaced?
If the nearest post office or GP surgery is in Bromsberrow, then folks in Eastnor will!
Editors note. I have no idea if these are real places or if anyone lives in either!
Those are real places. Neither have post offices or GP surgeries, although Eastnor has a 'castle' (well, stately home).
I mean. Just look at the graphs. The first graph shows swedish sexual offences against women, including rape
The second graph shows Swedish immigration. The purple line is migration into Sweden
If it's *all* about immigration, how do you explain why Norway (with very similar immigration trends) has seen these trends:
I won't argue that detailed point. I don't know the granular facts about Norway and Denmark v Sweden. Clearly - as you say - something has gone uniquely bad with immigration into Sweden. Nonetheless it IS immigration, mainly Muslim (AIUI)
Perhaps it is the source of the migrants?
Setting aside Poles (I don't think they are letting off bombs), most recent Swedish immigrants have been from Iraq, Iran, Syria and Somalia, it looks like. Perhaps this is a different profile to Norway? I genuinely dunno
I would suggest that - as I have said before - it is not to do with where the immigrants come from but how they are hanlded once they arrive in the country. There are very large numbers of immigrants arriving in Norway from the countries you mention. The difference is that the Norwegian Government has what you might call a 'tough love' system. Anyone wanting to settle in Norway has to undertake 300 hours (up from 200 hours when I worked there) of compulsory Norwegian language and culture lessons. Even if you are doing a couple of hours every single week that is still nearly 3 years of compulsory lessons.
And asylum seekers are not allowed to just live anywhere. To avoid the formation of ghettos or areas of dominant immigrant population they are told which county they have to live in for thAfre first few years.
The system works. I have never been in a country where the immigrant population was so well integrated. And it is a ciculcular thing. Because the integration is so good the acceptance of large numbers of immigrants is very high amongst the Norwegian population in general. So the immigrants feel more welcome and so there is a much better relationship.
Of course I am sure it is nopt all plain sailing all the time and sadly you still get lunatics like Anders Brevik. But as I said at the time - indeed I think in conversation with you - it is ironic that he was railing against immigration when Norway is one of the most integrated countries in Europe - and thoroughly Norwegian.
Some societies are going to have to study Norway's success as a matter of some urgency.
Of course being a very wealthy country probably helps, too.
Fertility rates that low really will result in extraordinary population declines in future generations (absent a large change in migration policy).
0.70 means almost a 70% decline in population from one generation to the next (assuming 2.1 as replacement rate).
It's a bit of a slow motion car crash as well as fewer children reduces costs to society for 18 years or so, after which you end up realising you have no one left to work and pay taxes.
It makes our demographic challenge (fertility rate around 1.5 but with large scale immigration of people of working age) look like a small bump in the road.
I suspect Korea will be bailed out by reunification at some point, when North Korea regime falls.
The issue is not dissimilar across most of East Asia though. The figures in Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, even China and Japan are heading the same way.
The combination of high levels of education, long hours school and work culture, prosperity but still the attitudes to women of a half century ago is not one that encourages fertility. Women expected to work, supervise children over homework and still do all the cooking and housework while the man of the house plays golf is not one that appeals to many women. Korean men need to catch up with the modern world.
Africa still has a largely traditional view of the sexes and the highest fertility rate of any continent in the world
Africa (as a whole) is unfortunately still much poorer than most of the rest of the world, and so earlier on in their demographic transition. And in many places women's rights is very poor such that they have little choice in the matter.
It is not homogenous by any means though and some countries are approaching replacement fertility, while all are seeing reductions - just as we saw in other countries a few decades earlier.
The destination is (broadly) the same, the question is just how long before each country arrives.
This RAAC thing seems like a nightmare. I expect schools are just the tip of the iceberg, googling it seems social housing built in the 50s - 80s might be affected too, possibly some hospitals and a smattering of private buildings too ? Probably some asbestos nearby too...
Looks like the building equivalent of an aero bar.
I'd be most worried about tower blocks and bridges.
However, the latter seem to have preferred reinforced concrete, and of the former quite a number have been demolished.
RAAC isn't a heavyweight structural material - that was its point. Concrete bridges don't, generally, need the light weight.
However, some may have needed the low cost. Particularly on bridges for minor roads across motorways.
Equally, it's less likely I think and should be easier to fix. Is anyone going to care much if the direct road from Eastnor to Bromsberrow is shut for three months while a bridge is replaced?
I would be interested to see a bridge that has structural use of RAAC.
Mind you, there are plenty of bridges that are falling down/apart without it.
EDIT: Three months? Are you having a giraffe? Hammersmith Bridge and the Westway say hello.
There was one road in the Forest of Dean that was shut for six years following a landslide.
In fact, because it was a weird cut-off that had never really been needed, I was slightly surprised when it was reopened.
Hmmm. So this (from the BBC's live reporting) is why the panic.
Nick Gibb of course, so treat with caution, but here he does seem to be saying there was a structural collapse:
Over the summer other evidence has emerged... that RAAC that had been regarded as safe actually failed, and that's why we took swift action to change the guidance and to change our approach," Gibb adds.
Very foolish of them to drip feed information out like this. It would be better to say what happened and when.
Reading between the lines, looks like somebody was doing repairs and the thing just disintegrated. But presumably that only happened in the last few days or even Susan Acland-Hood might have twigged there was a problem earlier.
The majority of schools won't collapse. So don't panic. Seems to be the impression left.
Hmmm. So this (from the BBC's live reporting) is why the panic.
Nick Gibb of course, so treat with caution, but here he does seem to be saying there was a structural collapse:
Over the summer other evidence has emerged... that RAAC that had been regarded as safe actually failed, and that's why we took swift action to change the guidance and to change our approach," Gibb adds.
Very foolish of them to drip feed information out like this. It would be better to say what happened and when.
Reading between the lines, looks like somebody was doing repairs and the thing just disintegrated. But presumably that only happened in the last few days or even Susan Acland-Hood might have twigged there was a problem earlier.
The majority of schools won't collapse. So don't panic. Seems to be the impression left.
Being told not to panic by a complete idiot like Nick Gibb seems a damn good reason to panic, frankly.
I mean, when has the old fool ever got anything right in his life?
I mean. Just look at the graphs. The first graph shows swedish sexual offences against women, including rape
The second graph shows Swedish immigration. The purple line is migration into Sweden
If it's *all* about immigration, how do you explain why Norway (with very similar immigration trends) has seen these trends:
I won't argue that detailed point. I don't know the granular facts about Norway and Denmark v Sweden. Clearly - as you say - something has gone uniquely bad with immigration into Sweden. Nonetheless it IS immigration, mainly Muslim (AIUI)
Perhaps it is the source of the migrants?
Setting aside Poles (I don't think they are letting off bombs), most recent Swedish immigrants have been from Iraq, Iran, Syria and Somalia, it looks like. Perhaps this is a different profile to Norway? I genuinely dunno
I would suggest that - as I have said before - it is not to do with where the immigrants come from but how they are hanlded once they arrive in the country. There are very large numbers of immigrants arriving in Norway from the countries you mention. The difference is that the Norwegian Government has what you might call a 'tough love' system. Anyone wanting to settle in Norway has to undertake 300 hours (up from 200 hours when I worked there) of compulsory Norwegian language and culture lessons. Even if you are doing a couple of hours every single week that is still nearly 3 years of compulsory lessons.
And asylum seekers are not allowed to just live anywhere. To avoid the formation of ghettos or areas of dominant immigrant population they are told which county they have to live in for thAfre first few years.
The system works. I have never been in a country where the immigrant population was so well integrated. And it is a ciculcular thing. Because the integration is so good the acceptance of large numbers of immigrants is very high amongst the Norwegian population in general. So the immigrants feel more welcome and so there is a much better relationship.
Of course I am sure it is nopt all plain sailing all the time and sadly you still get lunatics like Anders Brevik. But as I said at the time - indeed I think in conversation with you - it is ironic that he was railing against immigration when Norway is one of the most integrated countries in Europe - and thoroughly Norwegian.
Some societies are going to have to study Norway's success as a matter of some urgency.
Of course being a very wealthy country probably helps, too.
Fertility rates that low really will result in extraordinary population declines in future generations (absent a large change in migration policy).
0.70 means almost a 70% decline in population from one generation to the next (assuming 2.1 as replacement rate).
It's a bit of a slow motion car crash as well as fewer children reduces costs to society for 18 years or so, after which you end up realising you have no one left to work and pay taxes.
It makes our demographic challenge (fertility rate around 1.5 but with large scale immigration of people of working age) look like a small bump in the road.
I suspect Korea will be bailed out by reunification at some point, when North Korea regime falls.
The issue is not dissimilar across most of East Asia though. The figures in Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, even China and Japan are heading the same way.
The combination of high levels of education, long hours school and work culture, prosperity but still the attitudes to women of a half century ago is not one that encourages fertility. Women expected to work, supervise children over homework and still do all the cooking and housework while the man of the house plays golf is not one that appeals to many women. Korean men need to catch up with the modern world.
Africa still has a largely traditional view of the sexes and the highest fertility rate of any continent in the world
Africa (as a whole) is unfortunately still much poorer than most of the rest of the world, and so earlier on in their demographic transition. And in many places women's rights is very poor such that they have little choice in the matter.
It is not homogenous by any means though and some countries are approaching replacement fertility, while all are seeing reductions - just as we saw in other countries a few decades earlier.
The destination is (broadly) the same, the question is just how long before each country arrives.
Get a few competent Heath Visitors in, to tell women how to manage their fertility and the number of families with 10+ children nosedives.
I mean. Just look at the graphs. The first graph shows swedish sexual offences against women, including rape
The second graph shows Swedish immigration. The purple line is migration into Sweden
If it's *all* about immigration, how do you explain why Norway (with very similar immigration trends) has seen these trends:
I won't argue that detailed point. I don't know the granular facts about Norway and Denmark v Sweden. Clearly - as you say - something has gone uniquely bad with immigration into Sweden. Nonetheless it IS immigration, mainly Muslim (AIUI)
Perhaps it is the source of the migrants?
Setting aside Poles (I don't think they are letting off bombs), most recent Swedish immigrants have been from Iraq, Iran, Syria and Somalia, it looks like. Perhaps this is a different profile to Norway? I genuinely dunno
I would suggest that - as I have said before - it is not to do with where the immigrants come from but how they are hanlded once they arrive in the country. There are very large numbers of immigrants arriving in Norway from the countries you mention. The difference is that the Norwegian Government has what you might call a 'tough love' system. Anyone wanting to settle in Norway has to undertake 300 hours (up from 200 hours when I worked there) of compulsory Norwegian language and culture lessons. Even if you are doing a couple of hours every single week that is still nearly 3 years of compulsory lessons.
And asylum seekers are not allowed to just live anywhere. To avoid the formation of ghettos or areas of dominant immigrant population they are told which county they have to live in for thAfre first few years.
The system works. I have never been in a country where the immigrant population was so well integrated. And it is a ciculcular thing. Because the integration is so good the acceptance of large numbers of immigrants is very high amongst the Norwegian population in general. So the immigrants feel more welcome and so there is a much better relationship.
Of course I am sure it is nopt all plain sailing all the time and sadly you still get lunatics like Anders Brevik. But as I said at the time - indeed I think in conversation with you - it is ironic that he was railing against immigration when Norway is one of the most integrated countries in Europe - and thoroughly Norwegian.
Some societies are going to have to study Norway's success as a matter of some urgency.
Of course being a very wealthy country probably helps, too.
Fertility rates that low really will result in extraordinary population declines in future generations (absent a large change in migration policy).
0.70 means almost a 70% decline in population from one generation to the next (assuming 2.1 as replacement rate).
It's a bit of a slow motion car crash as well as fewer children reduces costs to society for 18 years or so, after which you end up realising you have no one left to work and pay taxes.
It makes our demographic challenge (fertility rate around 1.5 but with large scale immigration of people of working age) look like a small bump in the road.
I suspect Korea will be bailed out by reunification at some point, when North Korea regime falls.
The issue is not dissimilar across most of East Asia though. The figures in Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, even China and Japan are heading the same way.
The combination of high levels of education, long hours school and work culture, prosperity but still the attitudes to women of a half century ago is not one that encourages fertility. Women expected to work, supervise children over homework and still do all the cooking and housework while the man of the house plays golf is not one that appeals to many women. Korean men need to catch up with the modern world.
Africa still has a largely traditional view of the sexes and the highest fertility rate of any continent in the world
Africa (as a whole) is unfortunately still much poorer than most of the rest of the world, and so earlier on in their demographic transition. And in many places women's rights is very poor such that they have little choice in the matter.
It is not homogenous by any means though and some countries are approaching replacement fertility, while all are seeing reductions - just as we saw in other countries a few decades earlier.
The destination is (broadly) the same, the question is just how long before each country arrives.
On that chart Nigeria for example will still be well above the global let alone western fertility rate average even in 100 years time
This RAAC thing seems like a nightmare. I expect schools are just the tip of the iceberg, googling it seems social housing built in the 50s - 80s might be affected too, possibly some hospitals and a smattering of private buildings too ? Probably some asbestos nearby too...
Looks like the building equivalent of an aero bar.
I'd be most worried about tower blocks and bridges.
However, the latter seem to have preferred reinforced concrete, and of the former quite a number have been demolished.
RAAC isn't a heavyweight structural material - that was its point. Concrete bridges don't, generally, need the light weight.
However, some may have needed the low cost. Particularly on bridges for minor roads across motorways.
Equally, it's less likely I think and should be easier to fix. Is anyone going to care much if the direct road from Eastnor to Bromsberrow is shut for three months while a bridge is replaced?
I am picturing Clenchers Lane (no really!) as the Copperhead Road for the County Lines generation. Crossing from hillbilly Herefordshire into the dark satanic Forest with one's bootleg cider might be more problematic diverting via Top Cross.
Just when you imagine the DfE can't be any less competent... "The government will cover all capital costs" of relocation. I should imagine that will be a minuscule proportion of the total bill.
Just when you imagine the DfE can't be any less competent... "The government will cover all capital costs" of relocation. I should imagine that will be a minuscule proportion of the total bill.
I'm afraid I am at the stage where I can't imagine them being less competent.
Just when you imagine the DfE can't be any less competent... "The government will cover all capital costs" of relocation. I should imagine that will be a minuscule proportion of the total bill.
You know that line about never ascribing to malice what can be explained by incompetence?
With this government in general and the DfE in particular, I think we have to run it the other way.
Just when you imagine the DfE can't be any less competent... "The government will cover all capital costs" of relocation. I should imagine that will be a minuscule proportion of the total bill.
You know that line about never ascribing to malice what can be explained by incompetence?
With this government in general and the DfE in particular, I think we have to run it the other way.
Hope the start of term goes tolerably.
I think with the DfE, we need to remember that it might not be either/or. It could easily be both.
Certainly the figures I have had dealings with are both malicious and dishonest. But they are also clearly pretty stupid. One of their senior data protection officers, for example, didn't know what a Subject Access Request was.
Apart from possibly laying the LDs, I don’t at the moment see any outstanding betting opportunity in Mid Beds. Safest bet ATM seems to be not to bet.
What's the reason for laying the LDs?
The theory espoused by some is that market participants are overestimating their probability of winning, perhaps based on recent by-election successes where they have made a big effort. The difference being that Lab are also making a big effort, and start in 2nd place. Laying the LDs obviously also covers the not-inconsiderable chance of the Tories sneaking back in through the middle.
That's my reading too. I still think that all three parties should be 2.5, but if I had to guess I think the Tories would hold it if it was tomorrow so 3.7 is way too high for them, though Labour is gathering momentum. The LD 2.14 on Betfair at present still looks too low and I've just laid them a bit more. No sign of the feared Indie yet so I suppose he's not standing? (DYOR)
French President Emmanuel Macron slammed the two-term constitutional limit that means he must step down in 2027 as “damnable bullshit” in a meeting with party leaders yesterday.
Indeed, with Macron ineligible to be her opponent again Marine Le Pen has a real chance of winning the French Presidency in her third attempt at the run off stage
If Le Pen wins it will be hilarious to see the contortions of the Remoaners
Why . Le Pen has ditched her proposals for a referendum . The French aren’t leaving the EU no matter how desperate Leavers are to see some validation for their idiocy !
What more validation do they need?! Aren't the glories of the Truss premiership enough?
@Foxy actually makes a good point about Meloni, even if I replied sardonically
Meloni has been forced to retreat, quite significantly, now she has been elected
I wonder if Le Pen will do the same if she wins? Tack to the centre right, from the hard right? (she is no longer in any sense "far right" like her dad)
Quite possibly. Tho the difference is she has pressure from her right, as well as her left. Zemmour gets few votes but he is an influential figure
It's not only the left who get mugged by reality; the right does too. Within the various constraints of western Europe and the EU the area of what is possible in government is highly restricted by common moral sense, and by pre existing patterns of development.
Both left and right populism suffer from the defect that while each individual populist proposal (stop the boats, family values, whatever) may even have some merit and certainly support, governments have to run entire states including all the contradictions and over simplifications inherent in the totality of populist positions.
Indeed. But I point you to the success of Poland - almost zero immigration (absent Ukraine), specifically zero Muslim/black immigration (that is a blunt fact, even if we find it racist or offensive), and they have a relatively thriving economy, bustling cities, and one of the lowest crime rates in the developed world
They really don't want to end up as fucked as Sweden
Polish crime rate:
"Poland has one of the lowest violent crime rates in Europe, with particularly low levels of vandalism and arson. Its homicide rate is also one of the lowest in the world"
I can vouch for this feeling of safety. You can walk around a Polish city and you don't worry about having your phone stolen. Sadly, London is very different
Immigration can deliver against demographic challenges but can also deliver social change.
Japan isn't bothered by either, Sweden (hitherto) really likes the latter, Canada likes both, and we essentially like just the former.
Poland thinks there's another way, and there is if you can home grow the skills and up your birth/ growth rate.
Sweden is rapidly changing its mind on the whole "immigration is great for social change!" thing
"Sweden rocked by four blasts in one night. Swedish cities were rocked by 4 explosions in an hour, with the country struggling to rein in a surge of gang-related violence.
"Gang related violence" didn't exist in Sweden 30 years ago. Police are baffled."
I thought under Labour's PFI schemes, loads of money was spent doing up schools, rebuilding infrastructure etc.,. So how come schools are now at risk of falling down because of dodgy and/or inadequate concrete?
I thought under Labour's PFI schemes, loads of money was spent doing up schools, rebuilding infrastructure etc.,. So how come schools are now at risk of falling down because of dodgy and/or inadequate concrete?
AIUI the issue affects 1950s-90s buildings. Presumably Labour didn't rebuild schools that had just been built?
I thought under Labour's PFI schemes, loads of money was spent doing up schools, rebuilding infrastructure etc.,. So how come schools are now at risk of falling down because of dodgy and/or inadequate concrete?
I don't know much about this but AFAIK RAAC was last used in the early 90s, so presumably Major's government blocked it being used anymore in around that time period before Labour's PFI kicked in.
These schools affected now were probably relatively "new" when Labour took over so weren't the ones PFI affected.
I thought under Labour's PFI schemes, loads of money was spent doing up schools, rebuilding infrastructure etc.,. So how come schools are now at risk of falling down because of dodgy and/or inadequate concrete?
AIUI the issue affects 1950s-90s buildings. Presumably Labour didn't rebuild schools that had just been built?
I thought under Labour's PFI schemes, loads of money was spent doing up schools, rebuilding infrastructure etc.,. So how come schools are now at risk of falling down because of dodgy and/or inadequate concrete?
AIUI the issue affects 1950s-90s buildings. Presumably Labour didn't rebuild schools that had just been built?
And if the Tories hadn't scrapped school rebuilding schemes in 2010 presumably more of these buildings would have come due for rebuilding over the subsequent decade?
From the description:- William Kedjanyi and Paul Krishnamurty are joined by Chairman of Central Bedfordshire Council Gareth Mackey [standing as Independent] for a Mid Bedfordshire by-election special following the official resignation of Nadine Dorries!
Gareth gives us the inside track on his preparation, campaign strategy and his views on The Tories, Labour and Lib Dems!
Chapters: 0:00 Intro 0:45 Gareth’s Intro 2:04 Mid Bedfordshire Seat Profile 5:32 Are these independents politically aligned? 9:01 I want to reset 12:02 How much money are you spending? 14:38 What issues will cut through? 16:30 YIMBY or NIMBY? 19:08 Gareth’s Big Rivals 20:00 Tories with no chance? 21:36 Different interests for different communities? 25:31 What data are you working with? 29:45 Market Movers 30:58 Paul’s overall view 34:20 Nadine Dorries 38:48 Latest Betting 39:37 Paul’s closing thoughts 40:52 Will’s closing thoughts 42:09 Gareth’s closing thoughts
I mean. Just look at the graphs. The first graph shows swedish sexual offences against women, including rape
The second graph shows Swedish immigration. The purple line is migration into Sweden
If it's *all* about immigration, how do you explain why Norway (with very similar immigration trends) has seen these trends:
I won't argue that detailed point. I don't know the granular facts about Norway and Denmark v Sweden. Clearly - as you say - something has gone uniquely bad with immigration into Sweden. Nonetheless it IS immigration, mainly Muslim (AIUI)
Perhaps it is the source of the migrants?
Setting aside Poles (I don't think they are letting off bombs), most recent Swedish immigrants have been from Iraq, Iran, Syria and Somalia, it looks like. Perhaps this is a different profile to Norway? I genuinely dunno
I would suggest that - as I have said before - it is not to do with where the immigrants come from but how they are hanlded once they arrive in the country. There are very large numbers of immigrants arriving in Norway from the countries you mention. The difference is that the Norwegian Government has what you might call a 'tough love' system. Anyone wanting to settle in Norway has to undertake 300 hours (up from 200 hours when I worked there) of compulsory Norwegian language and culture lessons. Even if you are doing a couple of hours every single week that is still nearly 3 years of compulsory lessons.
And asylum seekers are not allowed to just live anywhere. To avoid the formation of ghettos or areas of dominant immigrant population they are told which county they have to live in for thAfre first few years.
The system works. I have never been in a country where the immigrant population was so well integrated. And it is a ciculcular thing. Because the integration is so good the acceptance of large numbers of immigrants is very high amongst the Norwegian population in general. So the immigrants feel more welcome and so there is a much better relationship.
Of course I am sure it is nopt all plain sailing all the time and sadly you still get lunatics like Anders Brevik. But as I said at the time - indeed I think in conversation with you - it is ironic that he was railing against immigration when Norway is one of the most integrated countries in Europe - and thoroughly Norwegian.
Some societies are going to have to study Norway's success as a matter of some urgency.
Of course being a very wealthy country probably helps, too.
Fertility rates that low really will result in extraordinary population declines in future generations (absent a large change in migration policy).
0.70 means almost a 70% decline in population from one generation to the next (assuming 2.1 as replacement rate).
It's a bit of a slow motion car crash as well as fewer children reduces costs to society for 18 years or so, after which you end up realising you have no one left to work and pay taxes.
It makes our demographic challenge (fertility rate around 1.5 but with large scale immigration of people of working age) look like a small bump in the road.
I suspect Korea will be bailed out by reunification at some point, when North Korea regime falls.
The issue is not dissimilar across most of East Asia though. The figures in Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, even China and Japan are heading the same way.
The combination of high levels of education, long hours school and work culture, prosperity but still the attitudes to women of a half century ago is not one that encourages fertility. Women expected to work, supervise children over homework and still do all the cooking and housework while the man of the house plays golf is not one that appeals to many women. Korean men need to catch up with the modern world.
Africa still has a largely traditional view of the sexes and the highest fertility rate of any continent in the world
Africa (as a whole) is unfortunately still much poorer than most of the rest of the world, and so earlier on in their demographic transition. And in many places women's rights is very poor such that they have little choice in the matter.
It is not homogenous by any means though and some countries are approaching replacement fertility, while all are seeing reductions - just as we saw in other countries a few decades earlier.
The destination is (broadly) the same, the question is just how long before each country arrives.
On that chart Nigeria for example will still be well above the global let alone western fertility rate average even in 100 years time
For its area, Africa's population is small. The 100 million of Congo goes into an area the size of western Europe.
I'm going to be hobnobbing with royalty today. Never done that before. Handy when you know someone, who knows someone, who knows someone. I have just been told to arrive 30 minutes later than planned as otherwise it will conflict with the security for the royals. I suggested they wait, but that was apparently not acceptable.
104 schools affected. Daily Mail has a list of about a dozen. Presumably, these are the weird ones which went back this week? This will be big news on Monday. Can't believe parents at the other 90+ have been informed and yet not contacted news outlets.
104 schools affected. Daily Mail has a list of about a dozen. Presumably, these are the weird ones which went back this week? This will be big news on Monday. Can't believe parents at the other 80+ have been informed and yet not contacted news outlets.
Ferryhill have just announced they will be online learning for everyone after a weeks delay
Comments
LAB: 62.2% (+29.8)
CON: 37.8% (-21.4)
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1697376397872832583
The stereotype of the Red Wall is further north but, tbh, this is the sort of bellwether seat that the Tories should be worried about: owner-occupiers, outer suburban, light industry and service industries, car-dominated, not overly prosperous but not particularly poor either. I used to work in Burton (the adjacent town) and many of the people in junior jobs at our company lived in Swad.
The East Midlands has been the area with the smallest swingback to Labour. If somewhere like Swad is going back to Labour with a 30% gain then the Conservatives are toast.
Very interested to hear some on the ground info; I find this one very difficult to call.
I would expect a blue reversion at the GE regardless of a LD or Lab win though.
Equally, one thing to remember is you do have quite a lot of professionals from Derby and Nottingham moving into Swadlincote because it’s cheaper and has good transport links to both. So it is gradually trending Labour anyway.
This result from last night in Wales seems surprising
Penmaen (Caerphilly) council by-election result:
LAB: 35.1% (-29.4)
PC: 26.6% (-9.0)
IND: 19.0% (+19.0)
LDEM: 9.6% (+9.6)
CON: 9.2% (+9.2)
OTH: 0.6% (+0.6)
Votes cast: 1,303
Labour HOLD.
Here’s a 2022 article: “Poland issued almost one million first residence permits to immigrants from outside the European Union last year, more than any other EU member state. It is the fifth year in a row that Poland has topped the list, amid a wave of immigration unprecedented in the country’s history.” https://notesfrompoland.com/2022/08/11/poland-issues-eus-most-residence-permits-to-immigrants-for-fifth-year-running/
Here’s a piece on the political rows in Poland: https://notesfrompoland.com/2023/07/03/tusk-accuses-polish-government-of-allowing-uncontrolled-immigration-from-muslim-countries/
Proud Boys leader Joe Biggs sentenced to 17 years for Capitol riot
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66676581
I mean, it’s a publicity stunt, but it’s not proof of worry.
Over time and with the right government policies migrants integrate well. Our new F2 doctor is an example. Ethnically Somali, born in Sweden, lived in Leicester 20 years, medical school in Romania, now back here, clearly looks Somali, but culturally now very British. Great doctor and attitude.
Tak.
Not up early enough. What happened in Swad?
The last story I heard from there was the student who 'lost control' of her car (ie drove way too fast for the foggy, freezing conditions) in late Jan, hit a tree and rolled and rolled it and put herself in hospital with a hairgrip embedded in her skull. Media reporting: don't wear hairgrips whilst driving.
There has been a lot of change in NW Leics over the years that does make it a classic Red Wall/Old Coalfield type constituency, with lots of new housing, and warehousing type industry relating to the Airport (which is a major freight hub, and the only one that works all night).
Batley East (2021 councillor being replaced):
Lab: 73.7 (+6.1)
Con 13.5 (-8.8)
LD 5.8 (+3.1)
Grn 4.8 (-1.1)
Others 2.2 (+0.6)
Baselined on 2023, when the Tories nearly snatched it with an Asian candidate, you could claim a Con-> Lab swing of 30%, but that's not the norm, so let's not.
Including the decision of the Tories and Lib Dems to stand where previously it was a straight Plaid/Lab fight I don't think the Lab/Plaid loss of vote share is quite as significant as it looked at first glance.
What might perhaps be more significant is it shows inroads can be made to the Labour vote when other parties make the effort.
Con in 3rd place is as possible as 1st IMO. It is hard to see why anyone wants to vote Tory at the moment.
It’s usually the holding party that wants to shorten the campaign. The opposition calling for the election sooner is, if anything, a sign of confidence, not worry.
But I don’t think it’s either of those. I think it’s just a way to get some headlines and bang home the message that Dorries spent ages not doing anything.
0.70 means almost a 70% decline in population from one generation to the next (assuming 2.1 as replacement rate).
It's a bit of a slow motion car crash as well as fewer children reduces costs to society for 18 years or so, after which you end up realising you have no one left to work and pay taxes.
It makes our demographic challenge (fertility rate around 1.5 but with large scale immigration of people of working age) look like a small bump in the road.
They'd have plenty to talk about.
https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/leicester-news/leicester-school-forced-close-over-8718168#amp-readmore-target
How soon it can be fixed isn't obvious. It is a school serving a former council estate, so going to be quite difficult for parents.
(posted early)
... sorry, scrub that.
I was referring to the Southern end of Ashfield ie Hucknall, which is on the Nottingham tram system and seems to have changed quite significantly (looking through the lens of relative house prices).
The issue is not dissimilar across most of East Asia though. The figures in Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, even China and Japan are heading the same way.
The combination of high levels of education, long hours school and work culture, prosperity but still the attitudes to women of a half century ago is not one that encourages fertility. Women expected to work, supervise children over homework and still do all the cooking and housework while the man of the house plays golf is not one that appeals to many women. Korean men need to catch up with the modern world.
Thinking leads to anger
Anger leads to the Dark Side
As we used to say at DB
CON 3.7
LAB 2.56
LD 2.06
They've definitely made it to the end state regardless, however.
Nick Gibb of course, so treat with caution, but here he does seem to be saying there was a structural collapse:
Over the summer other evidence has emerged... that RAAC that had been regarded as safe actually failed, and that's why we took swift action to change the guidance and to change our approach," Gibb adds.
Very foolish of them to drip feed information out like this. It would be better to say what happened and when.
Reading between the lines, looks like somebody was doing repairs and the thing just disintegrated. But presumably that only happened in the last few days or even Susan Acland-Hood might have twigged there was a problem earlier.
DTD683 has entered the chat.
EDIT: I would suspect a problem so big that everyone *had* to ignore it.
Probably some asbestos nearby too...
Looks like the building equivalent of an aero bar.
Erudite sarcasm, mixed with volcanic rage, and chopping people into bits with two lightsabers. Definitely an unusual management technique.
EDIT: Darth Magus inspects an educational establishment in s personal style https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YdgmH9Vv2-I
However, the latter seem to have preferred reinforced concrete, and of the former quite a number have been demolished.
https://www.lboro.ac.uk/news-events/news/2023/march/reinforced-autoclaved-aerated--concrete-raac/
So basically it's been flagged up for six years but practically nothing has been done about it, and then suddenly three days before large numbers of schools go back the DfE panics without giving any concrete (sorry) information on why.
And yes, hospitals are affected too. As are courts.
Equally, it's less likely I think and should be easier to fix. Is anyone going to care much if the direct road from Eastnor to Bromsberrow is shut for three months while a bridge is replaced?
Mind you, there are plenty of bridges that are falling down/apart without it.
EDIT: Three months? Are you having a giraffe? Hammersmith Bridge and the Westway say hello.
Editors note. I have no idea if these are real places or if anyone lives in either!
(One way of think about it is that buildings have done the same thing as animals and gone from an exoskeleton to an endoskeleton. Beyond a certain size, the latter works better.)
But compared with more traditional approaches, they're not expected to last as long. And we've been in the Russian Roulette phase of their lifespans for a while now.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-66670611
RAAC's not an inherently bad material if you accept that it won't last forever. Whether that is acceptable is another matter.
It is not homogenous by any means though and some countries are approaching replacement fertility, while all are seeing reductions - just as we saw in other countries a few decades earlier.
The destination is (broadly) the same, the question is just how long before each country arrives.
In fact, because it was a weird cut-off that had never really been needed, I was slightly surprised when it was reopened.
Seems to be the impression left.
I mean, when has the old fool ever got anything right in his life?
It is going to get cooler before it gets warmer !!!
"House prices see biggest yearly decline since 2009 - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66680166
Interesting wording. Could be GP surgeries rather than hospitals?
"The government will cover all capital costs" of relocation.
I should imagine that will be a minuscule proportion of the total bill.
With this government in general and the DfE in particular, I think we have to run it the other way.
Hope the start of term goes tolerably.
Certainly the figures I have had dealings with are both malicious and dishonest. But they are also clearly pretty stupid. One of their senior data protection officers, for example, didn't know what a Subject Access Request was.
Nudging 30C by Monday in the South. Into the mid 20s next week even in the North.
Meanwhile Western France could get 2 or 3 consecutive days above 40C. Unprecedented for September.
All thanks to the active Atlantic hurricane season which is pumping up high pressure to the east of the storms.
Though schools are apparently.
https://twitter.com/WarringtonBC/status/1697524904583704928?s=20
I thought under Labour's PFI schemes, loads of money was spent doing up schools, rebuilding infrastructure etc.,. So how come schools are now at risk of falling down because of dodgy and/or inadequate concrete?
These schools affected now were probably relatively "new" when Labour took over so weren't the ones PFI affected.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTDd1NL8Mc4
From the description:-
William Kedjanyi and Paul Krishnamurty are joined by Chairman of Central Bedfordshire Council Gareth Mackey [standing as Independent] for a Mid Bedfordshire by-election special following the official resignation of Nadine Dorries!
Gareth gives us the inside track on his preparation, campaign strategy and his views on The Tories, Labour and Lib Dems!
Chapters:
0:00 Intro
0:45 Gareth’s Intro
2:04 Mid Bedfordshire Seat Profile
5:32 Are these independents politically aligned?
9:01 I want to reset
12:02 How much money are you spending?
14:38 What issues will cut through?
16:30 YIMBY or NIMBY?
19:08 Gareth’s Big Rivals
20:00 Tories with no chance?
21:36 Different interests for different communities?
25:31 What data are you working with?
29:45 Market Movers
30:58 Paul’s overall view
34:20 Nadine Dorries
38:48 Latest Betting
39:37 Paul’s closing thoughts
40:52 Will’s closing thoughts
42:09 Gareth’s closing thoughts
Daily Mail has a list of about a dozen.
Presumably, these are the weird ones which went back this week?
This will be big news on Monday. Can't believe parents at the other 90+ have been informed and yet not contacted news outlets.
https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/23760219.ferryhill-school-delays-term-raac-found-buildings/
This is going to play very badly for the Government due to the incredibly bad timing.