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Now I am become Death, the destroyer of political parties – politicalbetting.com

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  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    dixiedean said:

    Here's a link to El Pais live results page.

    https://elpais.com/espana/elecciones-generales/

    Frankly I'd trust them over the NY Times.
    Currently showing 98% counted. PP/Vox 169.

    According to NYT, Sources: Ministry of Interior; Instituto Nacional de Estadística
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,651
    edited July 2023
    kle4 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    @Miklosvar has a point on Rhodes. This does not sound “normal”


    “Greece mounted its largest-ever island evacuation this weekend, moving close to 19,000 people on Rhodes to escape wildfires that have prompted some tour operators to cancel flights to the popular destination.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/9c67eb16-931b-462c-9174-32245725da07

    #ClimateChangeIsReal maybe?

    Which is why we need policies that aren’t regressive taxation. Note that the climate change levy on energy bills isn’t a problem because it is *equal*. Well, kinda. The rich have the best insulated homes, of course.
    Green New Deal funded by Wealth Tax then. Done.
    You seem to think only the rich will pay a wealth tax. Clue they wont

    Renters will have the wealth tax added to their rent
    People who have paid off 10% of a 400,000 pound house will be paying wealth tax on the full 400k noth the 40k they actually own.
    Poor pensioners that live on nothing more than a state pension but in the 40 years since they paid off their house that has now increased to an incredible price will suddenly find the wealth tax eating half their pension, fuel prices stealing the other half and food inflation swallowing another 20%

    The rich will find ways around the wealth tax
    Well we were looking at non-regressive ways to fund important things like saving the planet. What taxes would you rather use?
    There is no such thing as a progressive tax frankly, your side have introduced so called progressive taxation measures, so have the tories. Always seems to hit the poor harder than the rich.

    We don't need to save the planet either. Whatever happens the planet will still be here even if there are no humans. What you mean is save humans. Sorry too late it ain't going to happen. Rich countries in the west will find mitigation measures poor countries will be left to hang. There is nothing that can be done unless we get a global dictatorship that bans all private transportation, all meat etc. That won't happen so accept it.
    You are talking a lot of rubbish again Pagan.

    Income tax as implemented is unarguably progressive. You could argue it's not progressive enough and you could also argue that some very wealthy people find ways to avoid it. But by and large it's a progressive tax. (NI and VAT, in contrast, are not.)

    Now about your assertion that People who have paid off 10% of a 400,000 pound house will be paying wealth tax on the full 400k not the 40k they actually own. There is no possible basis for that to be the case. What you are describing would be a borrowing tax - an interesting concept but not one which would win many votes for any perty proposing or implementing it I would guess.

    Focus on the facts, not your fantasies.
    In respect of your second paragraph, most wealth taxes use the value of the property not the value of the equity in the property as their primary metric
    Er... evidence?

    According to the examples covered here most, if not all appear to be levied on net assets.
    Sorry I missed the link out: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_tax
    But that is not the wealth tax any of our political parties have proposed at one time or another.
    Also it doesn't discriminate on equity payed off. If I buy a 500k house with a mortgage in law I am the owner of a 500k house. The house is merely collateral against my loan so the 500k is my asset
    Er no, definitely not.

    Would that house be worth £500k to your estate when calculating IHT? No.

    Would that house be worth £500k when calculating you liabilty for social care should you need to fund it? No.

    Would your house be worth £500k as an asset if you need to claim UC*? No.

    In each case the value of the asset would be net of the mortgage. Same with any WT.

    (*For UC your residential property is ignored completely but if for example you happened to own a property that you did not live in the outstanding mortgage would be netted off the value to determine the net asset you own.
    No the house will be worth whatever it could be sold for, however the estate then has to dispense debts owed before anything left is dispersed and tax calculated. If I have 100k in the bank and credit card debt of 50 k IHT will be calculated on 50k not the 100k I had in the bank but the 100k was still my asset.

    Will your wealth tax take into account thinks like student loans, credit cards, overdraft, money I owe my friend down the road? No it won't. Therefore money I owe the bank to pay off the mortgage similar
    Yes, yes, yes, and no to the money you the friend down the road (you could just make that one up).

    As I said, all this stuff has already been well thought through and applied with tried and tested methods for areas like the benefits system, social care and IHT. Is it 100% perfect? No. is it workable in practice? Yes.
    Wow storing that one....BenPointer says "stuff has already been well thought through and applied with tried and tested methods for areas like the benefits system, social care and IHT. Is it 100% perfect? No. is it workable in practice? Yes."
    Store away. You're welcome.

    As an example for UC:

    "H1602 The value of capital which a person has in the UK, is its current market or surrender value less
    1. 10% of the value if there are costs of sale and
    2. the amount of any encumbrances secured on the capital.

    Example
    Louise owns a holiday home in Cornwall valued at £125,000. She has a mortgage on the property of £100500. The costs of sale (10% of the value) would be £12,500. This leaves the amount of capital to be taken into account as £12,000."


    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1163111/admh1.pdf

    Sorry if louise owns a holiday home in cornwall why the fuck are taxpayers giving her anything in benefits?
    How do peopple always choose poor examples for these things?
    Hah yes, The DWP set me up for a bit of Whataboutery there. It's tricky to find a 'net value after mortgage' example in UC calcs because the main residence is disregarded for the asset calculation.

    'Louise owns the mortgaged house her elderly parent lives in' would have been better. (I actually had an example of that in Citizens Advice a few months ago - asset counted, no UC.)
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 888
    Ok well I've greened up for a 500% profit although obviously the market might end up being voided.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,983
    Andy_JS said:

    A peculiarity re: way that NYT reports unofficial election results - the % counted will NOT exceed 95%.

    Addition returns will be added to the count, but the % counted will not change . . . until final results are official reported.

    That's what the do re: US elections, and appears to be same tonight for Spanish election.

    The Irish and British way of counting elections is better in my opinion. No percentages of the vote reporting, just 100% of the votes counted in each constituency as you go along, and that result is the final result for that constituency.

    (Note: do they also count votes like this in New Zealand? Not sure).
    We definitely have the most exciting (and quirky) election nights. Possibly in the world. But I’d exchange a bit of that excitement for a fairer voting system.
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855

    Question - what do they call "Spanish fly" in Spain? (Asking for a friend!)

    Fly. Same as Greek yogurt is just yogurt in Greece
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,651
    dixiedean said:

    Here's a link to El Pais live results page.

    https://elpais.com/espana/elecciones-generales/

    Frankly I'd trust them over the NY Times.
    Currently showing 98% counted. PP/Vox 169.
    With a 1.2 % PV lead for PP.

    Same figures on the NYT page, just sayin.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,273
    edited July 2023
    The story of the night PP do much better than last time by basically hovering up some Vox votes and Vox support crashes . But not well enough to get a majority with Vox support .

    Sanchez belies expectations and does much better than the vast majority of the polling .

    The biggest losers are the right wing press who were desperate to deliver their European right wing take over headlines , but will of course desperately try and spin Vox shedding 19 seats as a victory .
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,651
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    @Miklosvar has a point on Rhodes. This does not sound “normal”


    “Greece mounted its largest-ever island evacuation this weekend, moving close to 19,000 people on Rhodes to escape wildfires that have prompted some tour operators to cancel flights to the popular destination.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/9c67eb16-931b-462c-9174-32245725da07

    #ClimateChangeIsReal maybe?

    Which is why we need policies that aren’t regressive taxation. Note that the climate change levy on energy bills isn’t a problem because it is *equal*. Well, kinda. The rich have the best insulated homes, of course.
    Green New Deal funded by Wealth Tax then. Done.
    You seem to think only the rich will pay a wealth tax. Clue they wont

    Renters will have the wealth tax added to their rent
    People who have paid off 10% of a 400,000 pound house will be paying wealth tax on the full 400k noth the 40k they actually own.
    Poor pensioners that live on nothing more than a state pension but in the 40 years since they paid off their house that has now increased to an incredible price will suddenly find the wealth tax eating half their pension, fuel prices stealing the other half and food inflation swallowing another 20%

    The rich will find ways around the wealth tax
    Well we were looking at non-regressive ways to fund important things like saving the planet. What taxes would you rather use?
    There is no such thing as a progressive tax frankly, your side have introduced so called progressive taxation measures, so have the tories. Always seems to hit the poor harder than the rich.

    We don't need to save the planet either. Whatever happens the planet will still be here even if there are no humans. What you mean is save humans. Sorry too late it ain't going to happen. Rich countries in the west will find mitigation measures poor countries will be left to hang. There is nothing that can be done unless we get a global dictatorship that bans all private transportation, all meat etc. That won't happen so accept it.
    You are talking a lot of rubbish again Pagan.

    Income tax as implemented is unarguably progressive. You could argue it's not progressive enough and you could also argue that some very wealthy people find ways to avoid it. But by and large it's a progressive tax. NI and VAT however are not.

    Now about your assertion that People who have paid off 10% of a 400,000 pound house will be paying wealth tax on the full 400k not the 40k they actually own. There is no possible basis for that to be the case. What you are describing would be a borrowing tax - an interesting concept but not one which would win many votes for any perty proposing or implementing it I would guess.

    Focus on the facts, not your fantasies.
    Of course they would they would be paying a wealth tax on the value of the house, not the capital they had paid off in their mortgage, doing anything else would just incentivise everyone to take out interest only mortgages which would result in a disaster. No I absolutely do not agree income tax is at all progressive. Simple fact is there are so many ways to avoid it. That famous right wing person of this Parish Foxy for example was railing about no longer being able to stuff earnings into his pension fund to avoid tax on it so talked about reducing his hours
    Just stop for a moment and think about what you are saying.

    Person A, let's call them Mr. Rich, has £1m sat in his bank, and will pay Wealth Tax (WT) on it at the rate set by HMG. If he uses that £1m to buy a house or block of flats to let, he will pay WT on the value of the property instead.

    If he takes out an interest only mortgage for 90% of the £1m property, sure he only owns 10% of it and will only get WT on that £100k but he still has £900k in the bank so his WT position is unchanged.

    No one is going to be incentivised to take out an mortgage to avoid WT for the simple reason that they would not avoid WT that way.

    Regarding tax-free pension contributions, I can assure you from personal experience, and I suspect many others on PB can verify too, that that allowance does not magically turn ICT into a non-progressive tax.

    The simple fact is that for 99% of people in this country, the more you earn the greater % of your earnings you pay in ICT. That is the very definition of a progressive tax.
    That makes absolutely no sense at all. We were not talking about how much money someone has in their bank account as for 99% of people that has no relation to how much their property is worth or how much their mortgage is. You are conflating two unconnected things.
    You need to read my post again properly - I was just giving a simple example to show that taking out an interest only mortgage is not going to help anyone avoid a WT.

    Of course a WT would be assessed on an individual's total assets: cash, shares, bonds, property, etc.

    Fortunately the rules for assessing assets are already largely in place as anyone trying to claim UC or Pension Credit will know.
    You still havene't addressed the point that the only workable way for your plan is to tax the whole property value rather than the but the owner has paid off. And that opens up vast complexities and lots of obvious ways to avoid paying entirely

    Your plans just won't work.
    It also encourages people to keep their wealth off books which is easy enough. For example I know a place to get gold in the form of sovereigns/krugerrands....no paperwork so no traceability
    ...and illegal if you don't declare it for example in the case of IHT.
    erm you make that sound like anyone should care. You are unlikely to be caught and even if you are you can comfort yourself by saying I am no worse than a politician.

    The law is a farce for normal people, it doesn't protect us anymore so why should we pay attention to it. If my house gets burgled it won't be investigated, no one will be caught and no one in power will care about that.
    Well, you can always try tax fraud of course. I don't think it will end well though.
    Tax fraud is about the only thing ever investigated these days, lay up you spare wealth in dodgy gold, cocaine etc and you wont be caught because the state no longer cares
    Well I'm solving that for you: once we have a WT, lay up you spare wealth in dodgy gold, cocaine etc and fail to declare it and you'll be done for tax fraud. :-)
    No I really wont because how would they find it....I take money out of a cashpoint as normal..I have 700 cash left over after spending. There are no records to say I didnt spend it on food and spent it on sovereigns or cocaine and stashed it somewhere. The police are pretty dumb when it comes to looking for shit. I went through heathrow with an ounce of resin. Despite being searched they didnt find it because I had it in my hand clasped in my fist while doing as I was told holding my hands up while they searched me.
    Fair point. On those values no one is going bother. But we were talking about a WT. Try squirreling away £1m in gold or cocaine. Then think about why are you keeping that wealth, what are you going to do with it?

    Cos the moment you try to use it questions will start to be asked.
    Also easy enough to turn back into cash with no governement oversight as needed. Your mistake is you are making the assumption I turn 1 million into gold and drugs then turn it back. The truth is you save up bit by bit then release bit by bit not in a giant splurge. Bring in a wealth tax and if I have money I will turn it into assets outside the governements purview. Simply the government is not there to protect me it is the enemy and that is the same for most of the bottom 80%
    Good point. But the bottom 80% aren't the target for WT. Nor are the bottom 80% ever getting £1m in gold, cocaine or any other asset because wealth is concentrated in the top 10%.

    Hence a WT.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,796
    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Today was a disaster for Test Cricket. It must never happen again

    What can be done?
    Backup days scheduled!
    Do everything. Back up days. Minimum overs. Move or cancel tea and lunch ffs. Start at 9am on dry days. Anything

    Test cricket teeters on the brink of oblivion. Millions of people have invested emotionally in this series only to have it absolutely ruined by two days of typically shite Mancunian weather, like it is beyond the wit of man to work around such things

    Many of those people will now shrug and think Fuck it, what a waste of time, at least with white ball you get a result

    And thus the last bastion of Test cricket crumbles away
    White ball can be rained off too.
    A reserve day would probably be a good idea, as would starting half an hour earlier with each day strictly 90 overs less calculated deductions.
    Retractable Roof like wot they've done at Wimbledon.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,531
    Leon said:

    Lviv right now is a unique, remarkable and quintessential travel experience which will likely never be repeated in a century. Get here if you can

    Is it voyeuristic? Yes, probably. But they also want the travelers and they want the money and they want to feel embraced by the world. Not abandoned

    Do it! You won’t regret it. Unless you die in a missile attack 🤷‍♂️

    Interesting travel idea. Might consider it sometime.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,395
    Big polling miss is the strength of PSOE vote. 31.7% rather than the widely predicted c. 28.
    PP maybe a %age down on the prediction.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,865

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    @Miklosvar has a point on Rhodes. This does not sound “normal”


    “Greece mounted its largest-ever island evacuation this weekend, moving close to 19,000 people on Rhodes to escape wildfires that have prompted some tour operators to cancel flights to the popular destination.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/9c67eb16-931b-462c-9174-32245725da07

    #ClimateChangeIsReal maybe?

    Which is why we need policies that aren’t regressive taxation. Note that the climate change levy on energy bills isn’t a problem because it is *equal*. Well, kinda. The rich have the best insulated homes, of course.
    Green New Deal funded by Wealth Tax then. Done.
    You seem to think only the rich will pay a wealth tax. Clue they wont

    Renters will have the wealth tax added to their rent
    People who have paid off 10% of a 400,000 pound house will be paying wealth tax on the full 400k noth the 40k they actually own.
    Poor pensioners that live on nothing more than a state pension but in the 40 years since they paid off their house that has now increased to an incredible price will suddenly find the wealth tax eating half their pension, fuel prices stealing the other half and food inflation swallowing another 20%

    The rich will find ways around the wealth tax
    Well we were looking at non-regressive ways to fund important things like saving the planet. What taxes would you rather use?
    There is no such thing as a progressive tax frankly, your side have introduced so called progressive taxation measures, so have the tories. Always seems to hit the poor harder than the rich.

    We don't need to save the planet either. Whatever happens the planet will still be here even if there are no humans. What you mean is save humans. Sorry too late it ain't going to happen. Rich countries in the west will find mitigation measures poor countries will be left to hang. There is nothing that can be done unless we get a global dictatorship that bans all private transportation, all meat etc. That won't happen so accept it.
    You are talking a lot of rubbish again Pagan.

    Income tax as implemented is unarguably progressive. You could argue it's not progressive enough and you could also argue that some very wealthy people find ways to avoid it. But by and large it's a progressive tax. NI and VAT however are not.

    Now about your assertion that People who have paid off 10% of a 400,000 pound house will be paying wealth tax on the full 400k not the 40k they actually own. There is no possible basis for that to be the case. What you are describing would be a borrowing tax - an interesting concept but not one which would win many votes for any perty proposing or implementing it I would guess.

    Focus on the facts, not your fantasies.
    Of course they would they would be paying a wealth tax on the value of the house, not the capital they had paid off in their mortgage, doing anything else would just incentivise everyone to take out interest only mortgages which would result in a disaster. No I absolutely do not agree income tax is at all progressive. Simple fact is there are so many ways to avoid it. That famous right wing person of this Parish Foxy for example was railing about no longer being able to stuff earnings into his pension fund to avoid tax on it so talked about reducing his hours
    Just stop for a moment and think about what you are saying.

    Person A, let's call them Mr. Rich, has £1m sat in his bank, and will pay Wealth Tax (WT) on it at the rate set by HMG. If he uses that £1m to buy a house or block of flats to let, he will pay WT on the value of the property instead.

    If he takes out an interest only mortgage for 90% of the £1m property, sure he only owns 10% of it and will only get WT on that £100k but he still has £900k in the bank so his WT position is unchanged.

    No one is going to be incentivised to take out an mortgage to avoid WT for the simple reason that they would not avoid WT that way.

    Regarding tax-free pension contributions, I can assure you from personal experience, and I suspect many others on PB can verify too, that that allowance does not magically turn ICT into a non-progressive tax.

    The simple fact is that for 99% of people in this country, the more you earn the greater % of your earnings you pay in ICT. That is the very definition of a progressive tax.
    That makes absolutely no sense at all. We were not talking about how much money someone has in their bank account as for 99% of people that has no relation to how much their property is worth or how much their mortgage is. You are conflating two unconnected things.
    You need to read my post again properly - I was just giving a simple example to show that taking out an interest only mortgage is not going to help anyone avoid a WT.

    Of course a WT would be assessed on an individual's total assets: cash, shares, bonds, property, etc.

    Fortunately the rules for assessing assets are already largely in place as anyone trying to claim UC or Pension Credit will know.
    You still havene't addressed the point that the only workable way for your plan is to tax the whole property value rather than the but the owner has paid off. And that opens up vast complexities and lots of obvious ways to avoid paying entirely

    Your plans just won't work.
    It also encourages people to keep their wealth off books which is easy enough. For example I know a place to get gold in the form of sovereigns/krugerrands....no paperwork so no traceability
    ...and illegal if you don't declare it for example in the case of IHT.
    erm you make that sound like anyone should care. You are unlikely to be caught and even if you are you can comfort yourself by saying I am no worse than a politician.

    The law is a farce for normal people, it doesn't protect us anymore so why should we pay attention to it. If my house gets burgled it won't be investigated, no one will be caught and no one in power will care about that.
    Well, you can always try tax fraud of course. I don't think it will end well though.
    Tax fraud is about the only thing ever investigated these days, lay up you spare wealth in dodgy gold, cocaine etc and you wont be caught because the state no longer cares
    Well I'm solving that for you: once we have a WT, lay up you spare wealth in dodgy gold, cocaine etc and fail to declare it and you'll be done for tax fraud. :-)
    No I really wont because how would they find it....I take money out of a cashpoint as normal..I have 700 cash left over after spending. There are no records to say I didnt spend it on food and spent it on sovereigns or cocaine and stashed it somewhere. The police are pretty dumb when it comes to looking for shit. I went through heathrow with an ounce of resin. Despite being searched they didnt find it because I had it in my hand clasped in my fist while doing as I was told holding my hands up while they searched me.
    Fair point. On those values no one is going bother. But we were talking about a WT. Try squirreling away £1m in gold or cocaine. Then think about why are you keeping that wealth, what are you going to do with it?

    Cos the moment you try to use it questions will start to be asked.
    Also easy enough to turn back into cash with no governement oversight as needed. Your mistake is you are making the assumption I turn 1 million into gold and drugs then turn it back. The truth is you save up bit by bit then release bit by bit not in a giant splurge. Bring in a wealth tax and if I have money I will turn it into assets outside the governements purview. Simply the government is not there to protect me it is the enemy and that is the same for most of the bottom 80%
    Good point. But the bottom 80% aren't the target for WT. Nor are the bottom 80% ever getting £1m in gold, cocaine or any other asset because wealth is concentrated in the top 10%.

    Hence a WT.
    A lot of the bottom 80% is exactly your target, 57% of people are home owners they will be paying you wealth tax, of the other 43% pretty much all of them will be paying your wealth tax for their landlords.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,531
    nico679 said:

    The story of the night PP do much better than last time by basically hovering up some Vox votes and Vox support crashes . But not well enough to get a majority with Vox support .

    Sanchez belies expectations and does much better than the vast majority of the polling .

    The biggest losers are the right wing press who were desperate to deliver their European right wing take over headlines , but will of course desperately try and spin Vox shedding 19 seats as a victory .

    Most British right-wingers will probably be pleased Vox haven't got into government because of the problems they might have caused with regard to Gibraltar.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,301

    ...

    Nigelb said:

    Phil said:

    Meanwhile, the challenge for Boris / Liz defenders is twofold.

    1 Construct a timeline that doesn't lead to the fall of their champion. Complete personality transplants not allowed.

    2 Construct a timeline where the Conservatives are more popular than they are now.

    I don't think either can plausibly be done.

    What's the point? What happened happened. Truss got a lot wrong, but two things critically wrong imo - she let her friendship with Kwarteng persuade her to give him less supervision than necessary, and she badly underestimated the strength and number of the opponents of her policies. It must have been quite surprising the see the American President snarling at her attempt to reinstate the 40% top rate of tax, as if it was any of his f***ing business, but there we were.

    The point now is to look forward. We have a useless PM, with another useless PM in waiting. I see the best situation from here is for the Tories to ditch Sunak and give us an actual election.
    Truss lost control of the narrative because she didn’t have an answer when people asked the obvious question of /how/ exactly her policies were going to bring about growth. Everyone could see that they made the fiscal position of the government worse in the short term & she had no answer to the growth question apart from “it worked for Thatcher”.

    Unfortunately for her Thatcher cosplay doesn’t get you the right to economic growth & once she was revealed as an empty shell with no idea what she was doing (& her Chancellor likewise) the markets spooked & there was no way back.
    This is an odd word soup that bears absolutely no relation to the events of the period. Perhaps save it for when they ask you to write a liberty-taking adaptation for stage and screen.
    As a rebuttal, your snarky version of “I think you’re wrong” needs a bit of work.
    -When was Truss short of an answer as to how her policies would create growth? She was clear and consistent that she wanted to cut taxes to stimulate taxable economic activity. Pretty standard textbook economics, rather than some sort of arcane mystery.

    -Even opponents of Truss have stated that she was strong at PMQs, having a tendency to actually answer the questions, which her successor has abandoned.

    -When did she ever say 'it worked for Thatcher'?

    Apart from that his retelling was great.
    Amazing. The Truss Thatcher cosplay was commented on many, many times - both here & elsewhere. But putting that to one side, you’re repeating the exact same economic mistake that Truss made: Standard textbook economics does /not/ argue that cutting taxes will automatically stimulate economic activity. That very much depends on the economic context.

    Truss & Kwarteng’s assumption that you could just cut taxes & see your expected result was exactly what got them into trouble in the first place: The economic problems the UK has are not due to a lack of consumer spending, as cutting taxes on consumers wasn’t going to solve anything - it was just going to make the government’s fiscal problems worse, probably leading to higher taxes or higher inflation in the future. Without any detailed & believable explanation of how tax cuts were going to ”unleash growth” the assumption the majority made was they were simply going to make things worse in the medium term. Cutting taxes from a position of economic weakness where the population knows you’re going to have the cover that deficit some other way that will inevitably come out of their pockets doesn’t work.

    The market perception was exactly this: the tax cuts would make things worse & the government was out there parroting a message that they would stimulate growth without explaining how. Given the already precarious state the UK finances, the debt markets collectively decided that the Truss government had taken leave of their senses & acted accordingly. It was this perception of delusion that really mattered, not the detail of the (relatively minor in the grand scheme of things) increase in the deficit due to the tax cuts.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,651
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    @Miklosvar has a point on Rhodes. This does not sound “normal”


    “Greece mounted its largest-ever island evacuation this weekend, moving close to 19,000 people on Rhodes to escape wildfires that have prompted some tour operators to cancel flights to the popular destination.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/9c67eb16-931b-462c-9174-32245725da07

    #ClimateChangeIsReal maybe?

    Which is why we need policies that aren’t regressive taxation. Note that the climate change levy on energy bills isn’t a problem because it is *equal*. Well, kinda. The rich have the best insulated homes, of course.
    Green New Deal funded by Wealth Tax then. Done.
    You seem to think only the rich will pay a wealth tax. Clue they wont

    Renters will have the wealth tax added to their rent
    People who have paid off 10% of a 400,000 pound house will be paying wealth tax on the full 400k noth the 40k they actually own.
    Poor pensioners that live on nothing more than a state pension but in the 40 years since they paid off their house that has now increased to an incredible price will suddenly find the wealth tax eating half their pension, fuel prices stealing the other half and food inflation swallowing another 20%

    The rich will find ways around the wealth tax
    Well we were looking at non-regressive ways to fund important things like saving the planet. What taxes would you rather use?
    There is no such thing as a progressive tax frankly, your side have introduced so called progressive taxation measures, so have the tories. Always seems to hit the poor harder than the rich.

    We don't need to save the planet either. Whatever happens the planet will still be here even if there are no humans. What you mean is save humans. Sorry too late it ain't going to happen. Rich countries in the west will find mitigation measures poor countries will be left to hang. There is nothing that can be done unless we get a global dictatorship that bans all private transportation, all meat etc. That won't happen so accept it.
    You are talking a lot of rubbish again Pagan.

    Income tax as implemented is unarguably progressive. You could argue it's not progressive enough and you could also argue that some very wealthy people find ways to avoid it. But by and large it's a progressive tax. NI and VAT however are not.

    Now about your assertion that People who have paid off 10% of a 400,000 pound house will be paying wealth tax on the full 400k not the 40k they actually own. There is no possible basis for that to be the case. What you are describing would be a borrowing tax - an interesting concept but not one which would win many votes for any perty proposing or implementing it I would guess.

    Focus on the facts, not your fantasies.
    Of course they would they would be paying a wealth tax on the value of the house, not the capital they had paid off in their mortgage, doing anything else would just incentivise everyone to take out interest only mortgages which would result in a disaster. No I absolutely do not agree income tax is at all progressive. Simple fact is there are so many ways to avoid it. That famous right wing person of this Parish Foxy for example was railing about no longer being able to stuff earnings into his pension fund to avoid tax on it so talked about reducing his hours
    Just stop for a moment and think about what you are saying.

    Person A, let's call them Mr. Rich, has £1m sat in his bank, and will pay Wealth Tax (WT) on it at the rate set by HMG. If he uses that £1m to buy a house or block of flats to let, he will pay WT on the value of the property instead.

    If he takes out an interest only mortgage for 90% of the £1m property, sure he only owns 10% of it and will only get WT on that £100k but he still has £900k in the bank so his WT position is unchanged.

    No one is going to be incentivised to take out an mortgage to avoid WT for the simple reason that they would not avoid WT that way.

    Regarding tax-free pension contributions, I can assure you from personal experience, and I suspect many others on PB can verify too, that that allowance does not magically turn ICT into a non-progressive tax.

    The simple fact is that for 99% of people in this country, the more you earn the greater % of your earnings you pay in ICT. That is the very definition of a progressive tax.
    That makes absolutely no sense at all. We were not talking about how much money someone has in their bank account as for 99% of people that has no relation to how much their property is worth or how much their mortgage is. You are conflating two unconnected things.
    You need to read my post again properly - I was just giving a simple example to show that taking out an interest only mortgage is not going to help anyone avoid a WT.

    Of course a WT would be assessed on an individual's total assets: cash, shares, bonds, property, etc.

    Fortunately the rules for assessing assets are already largely in place as anyone trying to claim UC or Pension Credit will know.
    You still havene't addressed the point that the only workable way for your plan is to tax the whole property value rather than the but the owner has paid off. And that opens up vast complexities and lots of obvious ways to avoid paying entirely

    Your plans just won't work.
    It also encourages people to keep their wealth off books which is easy enough. For example I know a place to get gold in the form of sovereigns/krugerrands....no paperwork so no traceability
    ...and illegal if you don't declare it for example in the case of IHT.
    erm you make that sound like anyone should care. You are unlikely to be caught and even if you are you can comfort yourself by saying I am no worse than a politician.

    The law is a farce for normal people, it doesn't protect us anymore so why should we pay attention to it. If my house gets burgled it won't be investigated, no one will be caught and no one in power will care about that.
    Well, you can always try tax fraud of course. I don't think it will end well though.
    Tax fraud is about the only thing ever investigated these days, lay up you spare wealth in dodgy gold, cocaine etc and you wont be caught because the state no longer cares
    Well I'm solving that for you: once we have a WT, lay up you spare wealth in dodgy gold, cocaine etc and fail to declare it and you'll be done for tax fraud. :-)
    No I really wont because how would they find it....I take money out of a cashpoint as normal..I have 700 cash left over after spending. There are no records to say I didnt spend it on food and spent it on sovereigns or cocaine and stashed it somewhere. The police are pretty dumb when it comes to looking for shit. I went through heathrow with an ounce of resin. Despite being searched they didnt find it because I had it in my hand clasped in my fist while doing as I was told holding my hands up while they searched me.
    Fair point. On those values no one is going bother. But we were talking about a WT. Try squirreling away £1m in gold or cocaine. Then think about why are you keeping that wealth, what are you going to do with it?

    Cos the moment you try to use it questions will start to be asked.
    Also easy enough to turn back into cash with no governement oversight as needed. Your mistake is you are making the assumption I turn 1 million into gold and drugs then turn it back. The truth is you save up bit by bit then release bit by bit not in a giant splurge. Bring in a wealth tax and if I have money I will turn it into assets outside the governements purview. Simply the government is not there to protect me it is the enemy and that is the same for most of the bottom 80%
    Good point. But the bottom 80% aren't the target for WT. Nor are the bottom 80% ever getting £1m in gold, cocaine or any other asset because wealth is concentrated in the top 10%.

    Hence a WT.
    A lot of the bottom 80% is exactly your target, 57% of people are home owners they will be paying you wealth tax, of the other 43% pretty much all of them will be paying your wealth tax for their landlords.
    You haven't really been paying attention have you.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,395

    dixiedean said:

    Here's a link to El Pais live results page.

    https://elpais.com/espana/elecciones-generales/

    Frankly I'd trust them over the NY Times.
    Currently showing 98% counted. PP/Vox 169.
    With a 1.2 % PV lead for PP.

    Same figures on the NYT page, just sayin.
    Well OK. Glad to hear it.
    Am always surprised how often people on here quote their own local sources for foreign elections. Rather than going straight to the live results page of the major news outlets of the country concerned.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,273
    Andy_JS said:

    nico679 said:

    The story of the night PP do much better than last time by basically hovering up some Vox votes and Vox support crashes . But not well enough to get a majority with Vox support .

    Sanchez belies expectations and does much better than the vast majority of the polling .

    The biggest losers are the right wing press who were desperate to deliver their European right wing take over headlines , but will of course desperately try and spin Vox shedding 19 seats as a victory .

    Most British right-wingers will probably be pleased Vox haven't got into government because of the problems they might have caused with regard to Gibraltar.
    In terms of the right wing press they had their headlines ready to go and will try and find some angle to try and dupe their readership that the hard right take over is still happening .
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    The best PSOE result in vote percentage terms since 2007. A big polling failure in Spain. PSOE is the only party in the election to have exceeded expectations.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,865

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    @Miklosvar has a point on Rhodes. This does not sound “normal”


    “Greece mounted its largest-ever island evacuation this weekend, moving close to 19,000 people on Rhodes to escape wildfires that have prompted some tour operators to cancel flights to the popular destination.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/9c67eb16-931b-462c-9174-32245725da07

    #ClimateChangeIsReal maybe?

    Which is why we need policies that aren’t regressive taxation. Note that the climate change levy on energy bills isn’t a problem because it is *equal*. Well, kinda. The rich have the best insulated homes, of course.
    Green New Deal funded by Wealth Tax then. Done.
    You seem to think only the rich will pay a wealth tax. Clue they wont

    Renters will have the wealth tax added to their rent
    People who have paid off 10% of a 400,000 pound house will be paying wealth tax on the full 400k noth the 40k they actually own.
    Poor pensioners that live on nothing more than a state pension but in the 40 years since they paid off their house that has now increased to an incredible price will suddenly find the wealth tax eating half their pension, fuel prices stealing the other half and food inflation swallowing another 20%

    The rich will find ways around the wealth tax
    Well we were looking at non-regressive ways to fund important things like saving the planet. What taxes would you rather use?
    There is no such thing as a progressive tax frankly, your side have introduced so called progressive taxation measures, so have the tories. Always seems to hit the poor harder than the rich.

    We don't need to save the planet either. Whatever happens the planet will still be here even if there are no humans. What you mean is save humans. Sorry too late it ain't going to happen. Rich countries in the west will find mitigation measures poor countries will be left to hang. There is nothing that can be done unless we get a global dictatorship that bans all private transportation, all meat etc. That won't happen so accept it.
    You are talking a lot of rubbish again Pagan.

    Income tax as implemented is unarguably progressive. You could argue it's not progressive enough and you could also argue that some very wealthy people find ways to avoid it. But by and large it's a progressive tax. NI and VAT however are not.

    Now about your assertion that People who have paid off 10% of a 400,000 pound house will be paying wealth tax on the full 400k not the 40k they actually own. There is no possible basis for that to be the case. What you are describing would be a borrowing tax - an interesting concept but not one which would win many votes for any perty proposing or implementing it I would guess.

    Focus on the facts, not your fantasies.
    Of course they would they would be paying a wealth tax on the value of the house, not the capital they had paid off in their mortgage, doing anything else would just incentivise everyone to take out interest only mortgages which would result in a disaster. No I absolutely do not agree income tax is at all progressive. Simple fact is there are so many ways to avoid it. That famous right wing person of this Parish Foxy for example was railing about no longer being able to stuff earnings into his pension fund to avoid tax on it so talked about reducing his hours
    Just stop for a moment and think about what you are saying.

    Person A, let's call them Mr. Rich, has £1m sat in his bank, and will pay Wealth Tax (WT) on it at the rate set by HMG. If he uses that £1m to buy a house or block of flats to let, he will pay WT on the value of the property instead.

    If he takes out an interest only mortgage for 90% of the £1m property, sure he only owns 10% of it and will only get WT on that £100k but he still has £900k in the bank so his WT position is unchanged.

    No one is going to be incentivised to take out an mortgage to avoid WT for the simple reason that they would not avoid WT that way.

    Regarding tax-free pension contributions, I can assure you from personal experience, and I suspect many others on PB can verify too, that that allowance does not magically turn ICT into a non-progressive tax.

    The simple fact is that for 99% of people in this country, the more you earn the greater % of your earnings you pay in ICT. That is the very definition of a progressive tax.
    That makes absolutely no sense at all. We were not talking about how much money someone has in their bank account as for 99% of people that has no relation to how much their property is worth or how much their mortgage is. You are conflating two unconnected things.
    You need to read my post again properly - I was just giving a simple example to show that taking out an interest only mortgage is not going to help anyone avoid a WT.

    Of course a WT would be assessed on an individual's total assets: cash, shares, bonds, property, etc.

    Fortunately the rules for assessing assets are already largely in place as anyone trying to claim UC or Pension Credit will know.
    You still havene't addressed the point that the only workable way for your plan is to tax the whole property value rather than the but the owner has paid off. And that opens up vast complexities and lots of obvious ways to avoid paying entirely

    Your plans just won't work.
    It also encourages people to keep their wealth off books which is easy enough. For example I know a place to get gold in the form of sovereigns/krugerrands....no paperwork so no traceability
    ...and illegal if you don't declare it for example in the case of IHT.
    erm you make that sound like anyone should care. You are unlikely to be caught and even if you are you can comfort yourself by saying I am no worse than a politician.

    The law is a farce for normal people, it doesn't protect us anymore so why should we pay attention to it. If my house gets burgled it won't be investigated, no one will be caught and no one in power will care about that.
    Well, you can always try tax fraud of course. I don't think it will end well though.
    Tax fraud is about the only thing ever investigated these days, lay up you spare wealth in dodgy gold, cocaine etc and you wont be caught because the state no longer cares
    Well I'm solving that for you: once we have a WT, lay up you spare wealth in dodgy gold, cocaine etc and fail to declare it and you'll be done for tax fraud. :-)
    No I really wont because how would they find it....I take money out of a cashpoint as normal..I have 700 cash left over after spending. There are no records to say I didnt spend it on food and spent it on sovereigns or cocaine and stashed it somewhere. The police are pretty dumb when it comes to looking for shit. I went through heathrow with an ounce of resin. Despite being searched they didnt find it because I had it in my hand clasped in my fist while doing as I was told holding my hands up while they searched me.
    Fair point. On those values no one is going bother. But we were talking about a WT. Try squirreling away £1m in gold or cocaine. Then think about why are you keeping that wealth, what are you going to do with it?

    Cos the moment you try to use it questions will start to be asked.
    Also easy enough to turn back into cash with no governement oversight as needed. Your mistake is you are making the assumption I turn 1 million into gold and drugs then turn it back. The truth is you save up bit by bit then release bit by bit not in a giant splurge. Bring in a wealth tax and if I have money I will turn it into assets outside the governements purview. Simply the government is not there to protect me it is the enemy and that is the same for most of the bottom 80%
    Good point. But the bottom 80% aren't the target for WT. Nor are the bottom 80% ever getting £1m in gold, cocaine or any other asset because wealth is concentrated in the top 10%.

    Hence a WT.
    A lot of the bottom 80% is exactly your target, 57% of people are home owners they will be paying you wealth tax, of the other 43% pretty much all of them will be paying your wealth tax for their landlords.
    You haven't really been paying attention have you.
    Yes I have just think you are naive thinking those wealth taxes will raise anything if they aren't applied to everyone. There arent enough to tax to make a difference else. You lefties will sell it like that I have no doubt then decide it applies all the way down.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    dixiedean said:

    Big polling miss is the strength of PSOE vote. 31.7% rather than the widely predicted c. 28.
    PP maybe a %age down on the prediction.

    What I'm wondering, is IF holding election in July, hurt the right more than the left, turnout-wise/

    Were PP/Vox voters slightly more likely to be absent on holiday, than PSOE/etc?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,231

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    Re the voting data for the GE in Spain. The figures do not include the postal votes which will be higher this time as the election is taking place in the middle of the main Spanish holiday season. It may be notable however that currently Catalonia is ove 8 points lower than last time. Possibly worse news for the left than the right as PP/VOX get far fewer votes in the Communidad.

    When will we start to get results, are they counting overnight?
    Exit poll at 8pm when the polls close. Counting is very quick as it's the D'Hondt method. As it could be very close it may be a while before we know which Coalition, if any, is viable, but the broad picture is likely to be apparent within a couple of hours.
    So what is/are "bellweather" area(s) for Spanish GEs, if there are any?
    Large Communities and some cities but there aren't constituencies in the UK sense. The biggest in Andalucia which PP took 2/3 years ago on an unprecedented landslide. Without a big recovery there Sanchez will struggle to be largets party. Then we have Catalunia and Madrid both big the former with a significant nationalist vote althjough their turnout figures look very low today. Finally, Galicia - Feijjo's great PP stronghold. However, the polls have been somewhat unclear, and it's not clear who will end up winning overall.
    My understanding is that Aragon has been described as "the Ohio of Spain"? Although of course now Ohio leans red rather than being purple.
    Katherine of Ohio doesn't quite have the same ring to it!
    Columbus, Aragon doesn’t really work either…
    Toledo, Ohio. Home of the Mud Hens!
    Upset the craftsmen of Toledo at your peril.

    Toledo was part of Castile not Aragon…
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,531
    dixiedean said:

    Big polling miss is the strength of PSOE vote. 31.7% rather than the widely predicted c. 28.
    PP maybe a %age down on the prediction.

    Isn't the margin of error in polls around 3-4%?
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 888
    Bit cheeky of Sanchez to make an appearance before Diaz had finished speaking, but hey.

    So possible December election? But probably plenty of horsetrading in the days and weeks ahead and I wonder if Sanchez will attempt an investiture vote?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Here's a link to El Pais live results page.

    https://elpais.com/espana/elecciones-generales/

    Frankly I'd trust them over the NY Times.
    Currently showing 98% counted. PP/Vox 169.
    With a 1.2 % PV lead for PP.

    Same figures on the NYT page, just sayin.
    Well OK. Glad to hear it.
    Am always surprised how often people on here quote their own local sources for foreign elections. Rather than going straight to the live results page of the major news outlets of the country concerned.
    NYT link for Spanish election was posted here by Double Carpet. In Spanish.

    Certain convenient for me, as I have subscription. And have nothing against local sources, indeed thanks for posting El Pais link.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,395

    dixiedean said:

    Big polling miss is the strength of PSOE vote. 31.7% rather than the widely predicted c. 28.
    PP maybe a %age down on the prediction.

    What I'm wondering, is IF holding election in July, hurt the right more than the left, turnout-wise/

    Were PP/Vox voters slightly more likely to be absent on holiday, than PSOE/etc?
    Turnout up.
    70.4 from 66.2%.
    Perhaps the prospect of Francoists in power turned out the vote?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,231
    Miklosvar said:

    Question - what do they call "Spanish fly" in Spain? (Asking for a friend!)

    Fly. Same as Greek yogurt is just yogurt in Greece
    The Neapolitans used to call syphillis “the French disease”. The French called it “the Neapolitan disease”
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,867
    edited July 2023
    nico679 said:

    The story of the night PP do much better than last time by basically hovering up some Vox votes and Vox support crashes . But not well enough to get a majority with Vox support .

    Sanchez belies expectations and does much better than the vast majority of the polling .

    The biggest losers are the right wing press who were desperate to deliver their European right wing take over headlines , but will of course desperately try and spin Vox shedding 19 seats as a victory .

    It has already happened in Italy where far right Brothers of Italy are largest party and lead the government, no Spanish poll had Vox near largest party even had they entered government.

    PP also got previous Citizens votes
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,796

    Bit cheeky of Sanchez to make an appearance before Diaz had finished speaking, but hey.

    So possible December election? But probably plenty of horsetrading in the days and weeks ahead and I wonder if Sanchez will attempt an investiture vote?

    Are they Israel in disguise??
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    edited July 2023

    Bit cheeky of Sanchez to make an appearance before Diaz had finished speaking, but hey.

    So possible December election? But probably plenty of horsetrading in the days and weeks ahead and I wonder if Sanchez will attempt an investiture vote?

    There’s no realistic path to any government from here. Sanchez will probably be caretaker PM and there’ll be a new election in November or December.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,531
    Looks like PP + Vox may end on close to 46%, which I think would usually be enough for an overall majority. The Socialists must have got votes in the right places under the electoral system to maximise their number of seats.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,231

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    @Miklosvar has a point on Rhodes. This does not sound “normal”


    “Greece mounted its largest-ever island evacuation this weekend, moving close to 19,000 people on Rhodes to escape wildfires that have prompted some tour operators to cancel flights to the popular destination.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/9c67eb16-931b-462c-9174-32245725da07

    #ClimateChangeIsReal maybe?

    Which is why we need policies that aren’t regressive taxation. Note that the climate change levy on energy bills isn’t a problem because it is *equal*. Well, kinda. The rich have the best insulated homes, of course.
    Green New Deal funded by Wealth Tax then. Done.
    You seem to think only the rich will pay a wealth tax. Clue they wont

    Renters will have the wealth tax added to their rent
    People who have paid off 10% of a 400,000 pound house will be paying wealth tax on the full 400k noth the 40k they actually own.
    Poor pensioners that live on nothing more than a state pension but in the 40 years since they paid off their house that has now increased to an incredible price will suddenly find the wealth tax eating half their pension, fuel prices stealing the other half and food inflation swallowing another 20%

    The rich will find ways around the wealth tax
    Well we were looking at non-regressive ways to fund important things like saving the planet. What taxes would you rather use?
    There is no such thing as a progressive tax frankly, your side have introduced so called progressive taxation measures, so have the tories. Always seems to hit the poor harder than the rich.

    We don't need to save the planet either. Whatever happens the planet will still be here even if there are no humans. What you mean is save humans. Sorry too late it ain't going to happen. Rich countries in the west will find mitigation measures poor countries will be left to hang. There is nothing that can be done unless we get a global dictatorship that bans all private transportation, all meat etc. That won't happen so accept it.
    You are talking a lot of rubbish again Pagan.

    Income tax as implemented is unarguably progressive. You could argue it's not progressive enough and you could also argue that some very wealthy people find ways to avoid it. But by and large it's a progressive tax. NI and VAT however are not.

    Now about your assertion that People who have paid off 10% of a 400,000 pound house will be paying wealth tax on the full 400k not the 40k they actually own. There is no possible basis for that to be the case. What you are describing would be a borrowing tax - an interesting concept but not one which would win many votes for any perty proposing or implementing it I would guess.

    Focus on the facts, not your fantasies.
    Of course they would they would be paying a wealth tax on the value of the house, not the capital they had paid off in their mortgage, doing anything else would just incentivise everyone to take out interest only mortgages which would result in a disaster. No I absolutely do not agree income tax is at all progressive. Simple fact is there are so many ways to avoid it. That famous right wing person of this Parish Foxy for example was railing about no longer being able to stuff earnings into his pension fund to avoid tax on it so talked about reducing his hours
    Just stop for a moment and think about what you are saying.

    Person A, let's call them Mr. Rich, has £1m sat in his bank, and will pay Wealth Tax (WT) on it at the rate set by HMG. If he uses that £1m to buy a house or block of flats to let, he will pay WT on the value of the property instead.

    If he takes out an interest only mortgage for 90% of the £1m property, sure he only owns 10% of it and will only get WT on that £100k but he still has £900k in the bank so his WT position is unchanged.

    No one is going to be incentivised to take out an mortgage to avoid WT for the simple reason that they would not avoid WT that way.

    Regarding tax-free pension contributions, I can assure you from personal experience, and I suspect many others on PB can verify too, that that allowance does not magically turn ICT into a non-progressive tax.

    The simple fact is that for 99% of people in this country, the more you earn the greater % of your earnings you pay in ICT. That is the very definition of a progressive tax.
    That makes absolutely no sense at all. We were not talking about how much money someone has in their bank account as for 99% of people that has no relation to how much their property is worth or how much their mortgage is. You are conflating two unconnected things.
    You need to read my post again properly - I was just giving a simple example to show that taking out an interest only mortgage is not going to help anyone avoid a WT.

    Of course a WT would be assessed on an individual's total assets: cash, shares, bonds, property, etc.

    Fortunately the rules for assessing assets are already largely in place as anyone trying to claim UC or Pension Credit will know.
    You still havene't addressed the point that the only workable way for your plan is to tax the whole property value rather than the but the owner has paid off. And that opens up vast complexities and lots of obvious ways to avoid paying entirely

    Your plans just won't work.
    It also encourages people to keep their wealth off books which is easy enough. For example I know a place to get gold in the form of sovereigns/krugerrands....no paperwork so no traceability
    ...and illegal if you don't declare it for example in the case of IHT.
    erm you make that sound like anyone should care. You are unlikely to be caught and even if you are you can comfort yourself by saying I am no worse than a politician.

    The law is a farce for normal people, it doesn't protect us anymore so why should we pay attention to it. If my house gets burgled it won't be investigated, no one will be caught and no one in power will care about that.
    Well, you can always try tax fraud of course. I don't think it will end well though.
    Tax fraud is about the only thing ever investigated these days, lay up you spare wealth in dodgy gold, cocaine etc and you wont be caught because the state no longer cares
    Well I'm solving that for you: once we have a WT, lay up you spare wealth in dodgy gold, cocaine etc and fail to declare it and you'll be done for tax fraud. :-)
    No I really wont because how would they find it....I take money out of a cashpoint as normal..I have 700 cash left over after spending. There are no records to say I didnt spend it on food and spent it on sovereigns or cocaine and stashed it somewhere. The police are pretty dumb when it comes to looking for shit. I went through heathrow with an ounce of resin. Despite being searched they didnt find it because I had it in my hand clasped in my fist while doing as I was told holding my hands up while they searched me.
    Fair point. On those values no one is going bother. But we were talking about a WT. Try squirreling away £1m in gold or cocaine. Then think about why are you keeping that wealth, what are you going to do with it?

    Cos the moment you try to use it questions will start to be asked.
    Also easy enough to turn back into cash with no governement oversight as needed. Your mistake is you are making the assumption I turn 1 million into gold and drugs then turn it back. The truth is you save up bit by bit then release bit by bit not in a giant splurge. Bring in a wealth tax and if I have money I will turn it into assets outside the governements purview. Simply the government is not there to protect me it is the enemy and that is the same for most of the bottom 80%
    Good point. But the bottom 80% aren't the target for WT. Nor are the bottom 80% ever getting £1m in gold, cocaine or any other asset because wealth is concentrated in the top 10%.

    Hence a WT.
    How unbelievably intrusive your proposal is!

    Why should the government have a list of all my chattels? Why should they know what my pictures and chairs are worth? Why should they know if I buy a pair of earrings for my wife?

    Why should they keep this all on a database that will be hacked almost immediately and sold to thieves on the dark web?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,867

    Bit cheeky of Sanchez to make an appearance before Diaz had finished speaking, but hey.

    So possible December election? But probably plenty of horsetrading in the days and weeks ahead and I wonder if Sanchez will attempt an investiture vote?

    There’s no realistic path to any government from here. Sanchez will probably be caretaker PM and there’ll be a new election in November or December.

    Or a PP + PSOE grand coalition
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    dixiedean said:

    Big polling miss is the strength of PSOE vote. 31.7% rather than the widely predicted c. 28.
    PP maybe a %age down on the prediction.

    Isn't the margin of error in polls around 3-4%?
    It is. But that is for each individual poll.
    That nearly 4% miss was pretty consistent across all polling companies and all polls.
    Sum the polls and it shouldn't be anywhere close to that.
    The polling aggregator for each of the 11 companies showed a PSOE mean of between 27.9 and 28.8%.
    As opposed to the 31.7% got.
    I'd say that was some way off.
    Sanchez increased votes and seats. Almost a million more votes than 2019. A long way from the narrative.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,797

    Miklosvar said:

    Question - what do they call "Spanish fly" in Spain? (Asking for a friend!)

    Fly. Same as Greek yogurt is just yogurt in Greece
    The Neapolitans used to call syphillis “the French disease”. The French called it “the Neapolitan disease”
    "From the very beginning, syphilis has been a stigmatized, disgraceful disease; each country whose population was affected by the infection blamed the neighboring (and sometimes enemy) countries for the outbreak. So, the inhabitants of today’s Italy, Germany and United Kingdom named syphilis ‘the French disease’, the French named it ‘the Neapolitan disease’, the Russians assigned the name of ‘Polish disease’, the Polish called it ‘the German disease’, The Danish, the Portuguese and the inhabitants of Northern Africa named it ‘the Spanish/Castilian disease’ and the Turks coined the term ‘Christian disease’. Moreover, in Northern India, the Muslims blamed the Hindu for the outbreak of the affliction. However, the Hindu blamed the Muslims and in the end everyone blamed the Europeans [4-6]."

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3956094/
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,531
    HYUFD said:

    Bit cheeky of Sanchez to make an appearance before Diaz had finished speaking, but hey.

    So possible December election? But probably plenty of horsetrading in the days and weeks ahead and I wonder if Sanchez will attempt an investiture vote?

    There’s no realistic path to any government from here. Sanchez will probably be caretaker PM and there’ll be a new election in November or December.

    Or a PP + PSOE grand coalition
    What are the chances? Don't know how well (or badly) the two main party leaders get on with each other, which could be crucial.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    The only real winner from tonight’s Spanish GE is Sánchez. PP have got most votes (just) and seats, but thought they’d get far more. PSOE is the only party to have exceeded expectations. Tomorrow, Feijóo will be facing a very angry party; Sánchez a delighted one.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,194

    Miklosvar said:

    Question - what do they call "Spanish fly" in Spain? (Asking for a friend!)

    Fly. Same as Greek yogurt is just yogurt in Greece
    The Neapolitans used to call syphillis “the French disease”. The French called it “the Neapolitan disease”
    French letters = English overcoats
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,797
    edited July 2023
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    @Miklosvar has a point on Rhodes. This does not sound “normal”


    “Greece mounted its largest-ever island evacuation this weekend, moving close to 19,000 people on Rhodes to escape wildfires that have prompted some tour operators to cancel flights to the popular destination.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/9c67eb16-931b-462c-9174-32245725da07

    #ClimateChangeIsReal maybe?

    Which is why we need policies that aren’t regressive taxation. Note that the climate change levy on energy bills isn’t a problem because it is *equal*. Well, kinda. The rich have the best insulated homes, of course.
    Green New Deal funded by Wealth Tax then. Done.
    You seem to think only the rich will pay a wealth tax. Clue they wont

    Renters will have the wealth tax added to their rent
    People who have paid off 10% of a 400,000 pound house will be paying wealth tax on the full 400k noth the 40k they actually own.
    Poor pensioners that live on nothing more than a state pension but in the 40 years since they paid off their house that has now increased to an incredible price will suddenly find the wealth tax eating half their pension, fuel prices stealing the other half and food inflation swallowing another 20%

    The rich will find ways around the wealth tax
    Well we were looking at non-regressive ways to fund important things like saving the planet. What taxes would you rather use?
    There is no such thing as a progressive tax frankly, your side have introduced so called progressive taxation measures, so have the tories. Always seems to hit the poor harder than the rich.

    We don't need to save the planet either. Whatever happens the planet will still be here even if there are no humans. What you mean is save humans. Sorry too late it ain't going to happen. Rich countries in the west will find mitigation measures poor countries will be left to hang. There is nothing that can be done unless we get a global dictatorship that bans all private transportation, all meat etc. That won't happen so accept it.
    You are talking a lot of rubbish again Pagan.

    Income tax as implemented is unarguably progressive. You could argue it's not progressive enough and you could also argue that some very wealthy people find ways to avoid it. But by and large it's a progressive tax. (NI and VAT, in contrast, are not.)

    Now about your assertion that People who have paid off 10% of a 400,000 pound house will be paying wealth tax on the full 400k not the 40k they actually own. There is no possible basis for that to be the case. What you are describing would be a borrowing tax - an interesting concept but not one which would win many votes for any perty proposing or implementing it I would guess.

    Focus on the facts, not your fantasies.
    In respect of your second paragraph, most wealth taxes use the value of the property not the value of the equity in the property as their primary metric
    Er... evidence?

    According to the examples covered here most, if not all appear to be levied on net assets.
    Sorry I missed the link out: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_tax
    But that is not the wealth tax any of our political parties have proposed at one time or another.
    Also it doesn't discriminate on equity payed off. If I buy a 500k house with a mortgage in law I am the owner of a 500k house. The house is merely collateral against my loan so the 500k is my asset
    Er no, definitely not.

    Would that house be worth £500k to your estate when calculating IHT? No.

    Would that house be worth £500k when calculating you liabilty for social care should you need to fund it? No.

    Would your house be worth £500k as an asset if you need to claim UC*? No.

    In each case the value of the asset would be net of the mortgage. Same with any WT.

    (*For UC your residential property is ignored completely but if for example you happened to own a property that you did not live in the outstanding mortgage would be netted off the value to determine the net asset you own.
    No the house will be worth whatever it could be sold for, however the estate then has to dispense debts owed before anything left is dispersed and tax calculated. If I have 100k in the bank and credit card debt of 50 k IHT will be calculated on 50k not the 100k I had in the bank but the 100k was still my asset.

    Will your wealth tax take into account thinks like student loans, credit cards, overdraft, money I owe my friend down the road? No it won't. Therefore money I owe the bank to pay off the mortgage similar
    Yes, yes, yes, and no to the money you the friend down the road (you could just make that one up).

    As I said, all this stuff has already been well thought through and applied with tried and tested methods for areas like the benefits system, social care and IHT. Is it 100% perfect? No. is it workable in practice? Yes.
    Wow storing that one....BenPointer says "stuff has already been well thought through and applied with tried and tested methods for areas like the benefits system, social care and IHT. Is it 100% perfect? No. is it workable in practice? Yes."
    Store away. You're welcome.

    As an example for UC:

    "H1602 The value of capital which a person has in the UK, is its current market or surrender value less
    1. 10% of the value if there are costs of sale and
    2. the amount of any encumbrances secured on the capital.

    Example
    Louise owns a holiday home in Cornwall valued at £125,000. She has a mortgage on the property of £100500. The costs of sale (10% of the value) would be £12,500. This leaves the amount of capital to be taken into account as £12,000."


    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1163111/admh1.pdf

    Sorry if louise owns a holiday home in cornwall why the fuck are taxpayers giving her anything in benefits?
    At that price, it isd probably a glorified beach hut. And [edit] she doesn't own most of the equity.

    But she is having her benefits downrated anyway. 12K would take a very large bite, probably take all of them.

    Edit: like any savings, etc. Unless you want real estate to be disproportionately levied off first, rather than the equivalent in a building society?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    Re the voting data for the GE in Spain. The figures do not include the postal votes which will be higher this time as the election is taking place in the middle of the main Spanish holiday season. It may be notable however that currently Catalonia is ove 8 points lower than last time. Possibly worse news for the left than the right as PP/VOX get far fewer votes in the Communidad.

    When will we start to get results, are they counting overnight?
    Exit poll at 8pm when the polls close. Counting is very quick as it's the D'Hondt method. As it could be very close it may be a while before we know which Coalition, if any, is viable, but the broad picture is likely to be apparent within a couple of hours.
    So what is/are "bellweather" area(s) for Spanish GEs, if there are any?
    Large Communities and some cities but there aren't constituencies in the UK sense. The biggest in Andalucia which PP took 2/3 years ago on an unprecedented landslide. Without a big recovery there Sanchez will struggle to be largets party. Then we have Catalunia and Madrid both big the former with a significant nationalist vote althjough their turnout figures look very low today. Finally, Galicia - Feijjo's great PP stronghold. However, the polls have been somewhat unclear, and it's not clear who will end up winning overall.
    My understanding is that Aragon has been described as "the Ohio of Spain"? Although of course now Ohio leans red rather than being purple.
    Katherine of Ohio doesn't quite have the same ring to it!
    Columbus, Aragon doesn’t really work either…
    Toledo, Ohio. Home of the Mud Hens!
    Upset the craftsmen of Toledo at your peril.

    Toledo was part of Castile not Aragon…
    Also seat of Lucas County.

    http://www.toledosistercities.org/sistercities/toledo-spain/#:~:text=Established in 1931, the Toledo,back to at least 1835.

    "Established in 1931, the Toledo, Ohio - Toledo, Spain connection is the oldest formally recognized sister-city relationship in the world. The cultural and historical connection, however, goes back to at least 1835.

    In that year the fledgling local newspaper, The Blade, figuratively rattled sabers, made of steel from the Spanish city, in defense of Ohio's claim to what is now Toledo, during the dustup with Michigan in what came to be known as the "Toledo War." . . . In 1909 Wamba, a medieval Spanish king, was chosen as patron and centerpiece of a folk festival along the banks of the Maumee. . . . And in the 1920s Toledo, Ohio's Rosary Cathedral was designed with a Spanish model in mind.

    n 1934 a delegation of local dignitaries, including a high school student, was invited by the city council of Toledo, Spain and the government of the Spanish Republic to attend the week-long Corpus Christi celebrations in Toledo, Spain. Plans were made for a Spanish delegation to return the visit in 1937 as part of Toledo, Ohio's centennial celebrations. However, the Spanish Civil War, World War II, and a dozen years of Spanish political isolation impeded any further formal contacts until the late 1950s.

    A Spanish delegation finally arrived in 1962, twenty-five years late. . . . In 1962 the first satellite phone call, via Telstar, between Spain and the US was between the city halls of our two cities. In 1966 the film El Greco, staring Mel Ferrer, was premiered in the Ohio Toledo. In 1971, in response to the naming of "Toledo, Ohio Street" in Spain, "Toledo Spain Plaza" was dedicated [in] Toledo, Ohio [which also] donated a Jeep to the municipal police of Toledo, Spain.

    In 1982 the Toledo Museum of Art hosted a magnificent exhibition of paintings by El Greco, and 1990 featured the dedication of the stunning mural of the two Toledos. . . . On the occasion of the seventy-fifth anniversary, King Juan Carlos, presiding at a ceremony of the Royal Foundation of Toledo, presented a plaque to the American delegation commemorating our enduring relationship.

    Distance from Toledo, Oh: 4,003 miles
    Benefit: Scholarship from The University of Toledo

    SSI - perhaps the LEAST known consequence of the Spanish Civil War, was absence of Spanish Toledo from 1937 Ohio Toledo centennial.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,867
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Bit cheeky of Sanchez to make an appearance before Diaz had finished speaking, but hey.

    So possible December election? But probably plenty of horsetrading in the days and weeks ahead and I wonder if Sanchez will attempt an investiture vote?

    There’s no realistic path to any government from here. Sanchez will probably be caretaker PM and there’ll be a new election in November or December.

    Or a PP + PSOE grand coalition
    What are the chances? Don't know how well (or badly) the two main party leaders get on with each other, which could be crucial.
    Now PP have most seats the nationalists will vote down every Sanchez bill with no Catalonia independence referendum, PP have no majority even + Vox, so only solution it seems. PP leader a relative moderate
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,531
    "Test cricket's senseless lack of flexibility has spoiled a superb Ashes
    Potentially seismic spectacle at the Oval is now a dead rubber and it is not just the rain that should be cursed
    Oliver Brown"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2023/07/23/test-cricket-ashes-spoil-rain-delay-australia-retain
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    Looks like PP + Vox may end on close to 46%, which I think would usually be enough for an overall majority. The Socialists must have got votes in the right places under the electoral system to maximise their number of seats.

    What?
    Looks like 45.4% versus 44% PSOE/Sumar.
    If anything the PP got the right votes in the right places.
    Under pure PR the Right would be around 5 seats ahead of the Left, rather than the 16 they are.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,797
    Leon said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Question - what do they call "Spanish fly" in Spain? (Asking for a friend!)

    Fly. Same as Greek yogurt is just yogurt in Greece
    The Neapolitans used to call syphillis “the French disease”. The French called it “the Neapolitan disease”
    French letters = English overcoats
    Redingcote anglais, I think it was.

    The newspapers used to love calling J.-P, Sartre and anyone of his ilk Men of French Letters in their headlines, preferably Grand Old Men of FLs.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Big polling miss is the strength of PSOE vote. 31.7% rather than the widely predicted c. 28.
    PP maybe a %age down on the prediction.

    What I'm wondering, is IF holding election in July, hurt the right more than the left, turnout-wise/

    Were PP/Vox voters slightly more likely to be absent on holiday, than PSOE/etc?
    Turnout up.
    70.4 from 66.2%.
    Perhaps the prospect of Francoists in power turned out the vote?
    Interesting. And if your surmise holds water, could have goosed left turnout versus right.

    PLUS my surmise re; holiday differential might, perhaps, maybe have a role?
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 888
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Bit cheeky of Sanchez to make an appearance before Diaz had finished speaking, but hey.

    So possible December election? But probably plenty of horsetrading in the days and weeks ahead and I wonder if Sanchez will attempt an investiture vote?

    There’s no realistic path to any government from here. Sanchez will probably be caretaker PM and there’ll be a new election in November or December.

    Or a PP + PSOE grand coalition
    What are the chances? Don't know how well (or badly) the two main party leaders get on with each other, which could be crucial.
    Under 20% IMHO - what do our Spanish experts think? Almost as unlikely I think as Starmer having no majority in next GE and governing in a GC with the Conservatives.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    HYUFD said:

    Bit cheeky of Sanchez to make an appearance before Diaz had finished speaking, but hey.

    So possible December election? But probably plenty of horsetrading in the days and weeks ahead and I wonder if Sanchez will attempt an investiture vote?

    There’s no realistic path to any government from here. Sanchez will probably be caretaker PM and there’ll be a new election in November or December.

    Or a PP + PSOE grand coalition
    No chance of that. Too much hate.

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Question - what do they call "Spanish fly" in Spain? (Asking for a friend!)

    Fly. Same as Greek yogurt is just yogurt in Greece
    The Neapolitans used to call syphillis “the French disease”. The French called it “the Neapolitan disease”
    French letters = English overcoats
    Redingcote anglais, I think it was.

    The newspapers used to love calling J.-P, Sartre and anyone of his ilk Men of French Letters in their headlines, preferably Grand Old Men of FLs.
    Q1 - Do you think that Sartre et etc., ever got the joke?

    Q2 - How long before the English stage features retro-existentialist play, "No Brexit"?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,531
    O/T

    Maybe it's time to bring back timeless test matches, last seen in 1939.

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2015/dec/22/the-spin-cricket-the-timeless-test-1939

    "The Test match that went on and on and on. Without a winner but with meaning
    In the buildup to the first Test between England and South Africa in Durban, The Spin revisits one of the most infamous games ever played, The Timeless Test of 1939

    THE LONGEST GAME EVER PLAYED
    The game started on Friday 3 March and it ended 12 days later, after 43 hours and 16 minutes of play, 1,981 runs, and 5,447 balls. After all that, it still lacked the one thing it was supposed to have – a winner."
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,998
    dixiedean - New York City is about 2400 air miles from Seattle, where SSI2 lives. That's less than the distance between New York and London (a little over 3400 miles), but not enough less, so that many here think of the New York Times as a local newspaper. (An edition is printed in this area, and it is (was?) possible to get that delivered to your home in some areas.)

    As far as psychological distance goes, probably most editors at the NYT feel closer to London than Seattle.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    It looks like Catalonia was the key to stopping PP/Vox. The Socialists won big there. The separatist parties lost a lot if ground, thanks in part to a boycott. Also notable that the radical separatist Bildu has beaten the long dominant conservative nationalist PNV in the Basque Country. That is pretty seismic.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,797
    edited July 2023

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Question - what do they call "Spanish fly" in Spain? (Asking for a friend!)

    Fly. Same as Greek yogurt is just yogurt in Greece
    The Neapolitans used to call syphillis “the French disease”. The French called it “the Neapolitan disease”
    French letters = English overcoats
    Redingcote anglais, I think it was.

    The newspapers used to love calling J.-P, Sartre and anyone of his ilk Men of French Letters in their headlines, preferably Grand Old Men of FLs.
    Q1 - Do you think that Sartre et etc., ever got the joke?

    Q2 - How long before the English stage features retro-existentialist play, "No Brexit"?
    Q1: no idea, but I have a feeling that some of the headlines were for his demise anyway. Though the NYT seems to havew cottoned on in its style manual to the issue ...

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/06/obituaries/jean-d-ormesson-dead-french-novelist-philosopher.html

    Edit: forgot Q2. My firm opinion is that Mr Johnson was already staging it as a form of performance art, right from the start, and that the current Conservative Party are riffing on the theme. Ubu Roi comes to mind as a precedent.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2023

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Big polling miss is the strength of PSOE vote. 31.7% rather than the widely predicted c. 28.
    PP maybe a %age down on the prediction.

    What I'm wondering, is IF holding election in July, hurt the right more than the left, turnout-wise/

    Were PP/Vox voters slightly more likely to be absent on holiday, than PSOE/etc?
    Turnout up.
    70.4 from 66.2%.
    Perhaps the prospect of Francoists in power turned out the vote?
    Interesting. And if your surmise holds water, could have goosed left turnout versus right.

    PLUS my surmise re; holiday differential might, perhaps, maybe have a role?
    Perhaps both?
    One interesting feature is the vote in Catalunya. PSOE has done hugely well there. They really don't want a PP/Vox government. So haven't had the luxury of indulging themselves for various separatists.

    Edit: I see Southam has made a similar point.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Bit cheeky of Sanchez to make an appearance before Diaz had finished speaking, but hey.

    So possible December election? But probably plenty of horsetrading in the days and weeks ahead and I wonder if Sanchez will attempt an investiture vote?

    There’s no realistic path to any government from here. Sanchez will probably be caretaker PM and there’ll be a new election in November or December.

    Or a PP + PSOE grand coalition
    What are the chances? Don't know how well (or badly) the two main party leaders get on with each other, which could be crucial.
    Under 20% IMHO - what do our Spanish experts think? Almost as unlikely I think as Starmer having no majority in next GE and governing in a GC with the Conservatives.
    Absolutely no chance at all of a grand coalition. Less than 1%, I’d say. PSOE will feel they can win a rerun, PP has a lot of soul searching to do. Just being anti-Sanchez was nowhere near enough. So, what’s the offer going to be next time?

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Maybe it's time to bring back timeless test matches, last seen in 1939.

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2015/dec/22/the-spin-cricket-the-timeless-test-1939

    "The Test match that went on and on and on. Without a winner but with meaning
    In the buildup to the first Test between England and South Africa in Durban, The Spin revisits one of the most infamous games ever played, The Timeless Test of 1939

    THE LONGEST GAME EVER PLAYED
    The game started on Friday 3 March and it ended 12 days later, after 43 hours and 16 minutes of play, 1,981 runs, and 5,447 balls. After all that, it still lacked the one thing it was supposed to have – a winner."

    No doubt contributing to the fall of SA government later in September 1939, over joining UK in declaring war against Germany.

    To clarify, the new government lead by Gen. Smuts DID support Britain in going to war.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,867
    edited July 2023

    HYUFD said:

    Bit cheeky of Sanchez to make an appearance before Diaz had finished speaking, but hey.

    So possible December election? But probably plenty of horsetrading in the days and weeks ahead and I wonder if Sanchez will attempt an investiture vote?

    There’s no realistic path to any government from here. Sanchez will probably be caretaker PM and there’ll be a new election in November or December.

    Or a PP + PSOE grand coalition
    No chance of that. Too much hate.

    No chance of any alternative either.

    Spain tonight is the equivalent of Tories most seats but no majority and SNP balance of power in a UK context. That might even see Sunak + Starmer do a deal here too
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited July 2023
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Question - what do they call "Spanish fly" in Spain? (Asking for a friend!)

    Fly. Same as Greek yogurt is just yogurt in Greece
    The Neapolitans used to call syphillis “the French disease”. The French called it “the Neapolitan disease”
    French letters = English overcoats
    Redingcote anglais, I think it was.

    The newspapers used to love calling J.-P, Sartre and anyone of his ilk Men of French Letters in their headlines, preferably Grand Old Men of FLs.
    Q1 - Do you think that Sartre et etc., ever got the joke?

    Q2 - How long before the English stage features retro-existentialist play, "No Brexit"?
    Q1: no idea, but I have a feeling that some of the headlines were for his demise anyway. Though the NYT seems to havew cottoned on in its style manual to the issue ...

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/06/obituaries/jean-d-ormesson-dead-french-novelist-philosopher.html

    Edit: forgot Q2. My firm opinion is that Mr Johnson was already staging it as a form of performance art, right from the start, and that the current Conservative Party are riffing on the theme. Ubu Roi comes to mind as a precedent.
    "French letters" way more of a UK than a US thing. Thus relatively few Americans, aside from English lit majors ironically) get the joke either.

    We call (or at least did call) them "rubbers".

    Which 10-year-old English immigrant Ted Koepel, later famous US tv newsman, found out, the hard way, when he raised his hand in his new class in NYC, and asked the teacher, "Please, miss, may I have a rubber?"
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,796

    dixiedean - New York City is about 2400 air miles from Seattle, where SSI2 lives. That's less than the distance between New York and London (a little over 3400 miles), but not enough less, so that many here think of the New York Times as a local newspaper. (An edition is printed in this area, and it is (was?) possible to get that delivered to your home in some areas.)

    As far as psychological distance goes, probably most editors at the NYT feel closer to London than Seattle.

    Honolulu is a lot further from NYC than London is (a touch under 5,000 miles!).
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,395
    Perhaps Test Matches need to be played over 450 overs?
    No matter how long it takes to get them in?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited July 2023

    dixiedean - New York City is about 2400 air miles from Seattle, where SSI2 lives. That's less than the distance between New York and London (a little over 3400 miles), but not enough less, so that many here think of the New York Times as a local newspaper. (An edition is printed in this area, and it is (was?) possible to get that delivered to your home in some areas.)

    As far as psychological distance goes, probably most editors at the NYT feel closer to London than Seattle.

    You can get home delivery of the New York Times in Seattle. Along with The Seattle Times (which is big on the "The" for some probably dumb reason).

    Personally have online subs for both. AND buy a hard-copy NYT maybe 4 times a week, to read in coffee shop, not necessarily the same day.

    My local paper is definitely TST. But more bang for the buck print-wise in NYT.

    EDIT - As JM suggests, close relationship between these two rags. In fact, close to half of Seattle Times national & international stories are from NYT.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,998
    Completely off topic; But I wanted to say that I admire what Mike Nevitt is doing:
    'Mike Nevitt’s five-year mission is to go where no man has gone before and build a detailed 1:25-scale model of the USS Enterprise from the original “Star Trek” TV series.

    “The model will be 40 feet long and 11 feet high,” Mike said the other day on a Zoom call from Denmark, where the 59-year-old lives. “So it's actually the biggest in the world.”'

    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/07/23/scale-model-uss-enterprise/

    There are still some fine artists around.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    dixiedean - New York City is about 2400 air miles from Seattle, where SSI2 lives. That's less than the distance between New York and London (a little over 3400 miles), but not enough less, so that many here think of the New York Times as a local newspaper. (An edition is printed in this area, and it is (was?) possible to get that delivered to your home in some areas.)

    As far as psychological distance goes, probably most editors at the NYT feel closer to London than Seattle.

    Honolulu is a lot further from NYC than London is (a touch under 5,000 miles!).
    And it is virtually impossible to buy a hard-copy NYT in Honolulu. AND when you can find one, for example at the airport, it's for the previous day's edition.

    Note that it's just about as hard to find a Honolulu Star Advertiser, at least in Waikiki. Trick was to go to convenience store VERY early and snag their sole copy.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    dixiedean said:

    Perhaps Test Matches need to be played over 450 overs?
    No matter how long it takes to get them in?

    "How many overs over 450 was that again, Captain Over? Over!"
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,867
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Bit cheeky of Sanchez to make an appearance before Diaz had finished speaking, but hey.

    So possible December election? But probably plenty of horsetrading in the days and weeks ahead and I wonder if Sanchez will attempt an investiture vote?

    There’s no realistic path to any government from here. Sanchez will probably be caretaker PM and there’ll be a new election in November or December.

    Or a PP + PSOE grand coalition
    No chance of that. Too much hate.

    No chance of any alternative either.

    Spain tonight is the equivalent of Tories most seats but no majority and SNP balance of power in a UK context. That might even see Sunak + Starmer do a deal here too
    “We won’t make Pedro Sánchez PM in exchange for nothing,” Míriam Nogueras of Junts said after the results left her party holding the keys to power.
    https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/spaniards-vote-election-oust-leftist-coalition-herald-return-101585557
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,531
    dixiedean said:

    Perhaps Test Matches need to be played over 450 overs?
    No matter how long it takes to get them in?

    There was a problem a few years back where the final session of a test match day lasted for 3 and half hours without a break (except short drinks breaks). After that the cricket authorities restricted sessions to not more than 2 and a half hours.

    http://static.espncricinfo.com/db/ABOUT_CRICKET/ICC_1999-2000/TEST_MATCH_PLAYING_CONDITIONS.html
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,531
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Bit cheeky of Sanchez to make an appearance before Diaz had finished speaking, but hey.

    So possible December election? But probably plenty of horsetrading in the days and weeks ahead and I wonder if Sanchez will attempt an investiture vote?

    There’s no realistic path to any government from here. Sanchez will probably be caretaker PM and there’ll be a new election in November or December.

    Or a PP + PSOE grand coalition
    No chance of that. Too much hate.

    No chance of any alternative either.

    Spain tonight is the equivalent of Tories most seats but no majority and SNP balance of power in a UK context. That might even see Sunak + Starmer do a deal here too
    “We won’t make Pedro Sánchez PM in exchange for nothing,” Míriam Nogueras of Junts said after the results left her party holding the keys to power.
    https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/spaniards-vote-election-oust-leftist-coalition-herald-return-101585557
    Vox's extreme social policies probably damaged not just them but also the PP by association, leading to this failure to win a majority. Some of those social policies make Farage seem like a soft lefty.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    In Ireland, impetus behind formation of current FG-FF Grand Coalition, along with Greens (different shade!) was
    > desire of both of two "Civil War" parties to keep out a third = Sinn Fein;
    combined with
    > reluctance of SF to joint government as junior coalition member.
    > in electoral situation where SF scored major gains and ended up as 2nd-largest party in Dail.

    Not a lot of similarity between Ireland 2020 and Spain 2023?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2023
    For those bemoaning the underwhelming sporting weekend.
    The RL Challenge Cup Final will be Leigh v Hull KR. St Helens and Wigan beaten in the Semis.
    Two teams with 3 CC wins between them since 1895.
    The second club in Hull v the third club in Wigan (behind Wigan St.Pat's)
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,998
    Here are two tidbits from the WaPo, on the Spanish election:
    "A record number of mail-in ballots could also have unpredictable consequences. Because of vacation season, some polling centers are so short-staffed that the very first in-person voters on Sunday risk being deputized as volunteers."
    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/23/spain-elections-vox-europe/

    The picture illustrating the article shows three workers at a table. On the wall behind them are a cross with Jesus, a large religious picture of some sort -- and a fire extinguisher.

    (Yes, I know, they should have given an estimate for the number of mail-in ballots, and how much that differs from the numbers in recent elections. And said whether they would be counted at the same time as other balllots.)
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    speaking of the Gray Lady . . .

    NYT - ‘Barbie’ slammed by conservatives as ‘man-hating woke propaganda’ amid box office success

    Conservatives aren’t playing with “Barbie,” with many on the right slamming the colorful blockbuster as a “woke … flaming garbage heap.”

    The likes of conservative commentator Ben Shapiro, Sen. Ted Cruz, and the wife of U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz are among those who have taken to the streets — also known as social media and Fox News — to denounce Greta Gerwig’s film, starring Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling.

    Dubbed a “flaming garbage heap of a film,” Shapiro tweeted that the flick is “one of the most woke movies I have ever seen.”

    Speaking on Fox News, 52-year-old Cruz admitted to not having seen the movie, but still dismissed it as essentially Chinese propaganda. The Texas senator pointed to the film’s inclusion of the “nine-dash line” — in favor of China’s territorial claims of the South China Sea — as evidence of “Barbie” attempting “to kiss up to the Chinese communist party … to make money selling the movie in China.”

    The “offending” map move rendered the film banned in Vietnam.

    Meanwhile, Ginger Gaetz, the wife of Matt Gaetz, took to Twitter to bemoan, in part, the “disappointingly low T from Ken,” referring to his level of testosterone.

    Jack Posobiec, senior editor at HumanEvents.com, said the “horror show” film was not only “man-hating” but a “woke propaganda fest.”

    Fox News helped spur the call to #BoycottBarbie after promoting a review by Christian site MovieGuide, which says the film is “pushing lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender character stories,” per Rolling Stone.

    However, that boycott hasn’t seemed to gain much traction. At the time of publication, “Barbie” holds a 90% approval rating on review aggregator Rotten Tomatoes. It’s also been crowned the winner of box office previews for this summer and year to date.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Here are two tidbits from the WaPo, on the Spanish election:
    "A record number of mail-in ballots could also have unpredictable consequences. Because of vacation season, some polling centers are so short-staffed that the very first in-person voters on Sunday risk being deputized as volunteers."
    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/23/spain-elections-vox-europe/

    The picture illustrating the article shows three workers at a table. On the wall behind them are a cross with Jesus, a large religious picture of some sort -- and a fire extinguisher.

    (Yes, I know, they should have given an estimate for the number of mail-in ballots, and how much that differs from the numbers in recent elections. And said whether they would be counted at the same time as other balllots.)

    Sounds like the polling site in question was a school.

    You'll see same thing in Irish election (though NOT as much in certain sections of Northern Ireland east of the Bann).
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited July 2023
    according to NYT, provinces that have NOT reported 100% of expected vote are

    Barcelona current margin PSOE +21%
    Madrid PP +13%
    Seville PSOE +3%
    Santa Cruz de Tenerife PP +2%
    Soria PP +8%
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,531
    O/T

    Anyone know how Aston Villa and Newcastle can be playing each other at this time of the night/morning?

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/football/elite-friendlies/newcastle-v-aston-villa-betting-32506839
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,778
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Anyone know how Aston Villa and Newcastle can be playing each other at this time of the night/morning?

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/football/elite-friendlies/newcastle-v-aston-villa-betting-32506839

    They are playing in Philadelphia (USA) with a 7pm local time kick-off (so Midnight kick off in the UK). It's part of a pre-season friendly tournament in the States I believe
  • TresTres Posts: 2,694
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Anyone know how Aston Villa and Newcastle can be playing each other at this time of the night/morning?

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/football/elite-friendlies/newcastle-v-aston-villa-betting-32506839

    timezones
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,531
    Lennon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Anyone know how Aston Villa and Newcastle can be playing each other at this time of the night/morning?

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/football/elite-friendlies/newcastle-v-aston-villa-betting-32506839

    They are playing in Philadelphia (USA) with a 7pm local time kick-off (so Midnight kick off in the UK). It's part of a pre-season friendly tournament in the States I believe
    Thanks, I didn't know English teams played in other countries.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,093
    Andy_JS said:

    Lennon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Anyone know how Aston Villa and Newcastle can be playing each other at this time of the night/morning?

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/football/elite-friendlies/newcastle-v-aston-villa-betting-32506839

    They are playing in Philadelphia (USA) with a 7pm local time kick-off (so Midnight kick off in the UK). It's part of a pre-season friendly tournament in the States I believe
    Thanks, I didn't know English teams played in other countries.
    Arsenal is playing Barcelona on Wednesday in Los Angeles: my son is going with a friend.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,042
    edited July 2023

    I admire what Mike Nevitt is doing [with the USS Enterprise]

    if we leave aside the various suffixed Enterprises - no bloody A, B, C, D, or E (and the rest) there are several versions of the Constitution-class starship (not spaceship - it's like boats and ships) USS Enterprise NCC-1701 that Nevitt could be referring to

    When the first pilot was done in the 60s, the ship had its original design with some variations - the Bussard collectors were red with spikes, the deflector dish and bridge dome were bigger, and the nacelle end detailing was different.. the bridge was monochromatic with blue detailing. After the show was picked up for a series, the bridge and uniforms were made more colourful to exploit colour TV (see also Batman and Voyage to the Bottom of the Sea). The design contains a continuity error, as the bridge turbolift cannot fit in the external design

    The show ended in the 60s but a reboot was planned in the 1970s, and the planned 1970s reboot had a redesigned ship, with more angular nacelles and modified pylons. This is known as the "Phase 2" Enterprise: details are lacking but Engineering would be much different thing, with a globular reaction chamber instead of the arched chamber ("the cathedral") of the original.

    The Phase 2 design was further modified for the 1979 movie, with the vertical intermix chamber (when they scream "eject the core", it's that that gets ejected), the larger bridge, the swept-back trapezoidal pylons, the further changes to the nacelles, the chubbier secondary hull, aztecing on the surface, better decals and the twin torpedo launcher. In universe this is referred to as the refit model and is designated a constitution-ii class.

    This NCC-1701 was destroyed in Star Trek 3 and further models are suffixed: 1701-A, B.... G.

    In 2009 the reboot movie in an alternate universe (the Kelvin timeline) introduced a new version of NCC-1701 and this design by Ryan Church is widely disliked, being all lens flares, apple store lighting, wonky pylons and brewery interiors - the film was v low budget so they filmed in a brewery. Continuity errors are legion since the exterior is far too small for the interior.

    In the 2010s the producers introduced another show, set about a decade earlier than the original series. It was instantly loathed due to some bad design choices and, panicking, the producers bought back the original Enterprise. This version is liked but again the details have changed: the pylons are anachronistically trapezoidal, the nacelles have three heat exchangers not two, the registry number is spotlit, and again the interiors are too large. The design aesthetic is also anachronistic, being suffused with glossy surfaces and the engineering and bridge are different. This version is the one in "Star Trek: Strange New Worlds" that is still going, with ST:SNW in its second season.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,231

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    Re the voting data for the GE in Spain. The figures do not include the postal votes which will be higher this time as the election is taking place in the middle of the main Spanish holiday season. It may be notable however that currently Catalonia is ove 8 points lower than last time. Possibly worse news for the left than the right as PP/VOX get far fewer votes in the Communidad.

    When will we start to get results, are they counting overnight?
    Exit poll at 8pm when the polls close. Counting is very quick as it's the D'Hondt method. As it could be very close it may be a while before we know which Coalition, if any, is viable, but the broad picture is likely to be apparent within a couple of hours.
    So what is/are "bellweather" area(s) for Spanish GEs, if there are any?
    Large Communities and some cities but there aren't constituencies in the UK sense. The biggest in Andalucia which PP took 2/3 years ago on an unprecedented landslide. Without a big recovery there Sanchez will struggle to be largets party. Then we have Catalunia and Madrid both big the former with a significant nationalist vote althjough their turnout figures look very low today. Finally, Galicia - Feijjo's great PP stronghold. However, the polls have been somewhat unclear, and it's not clear who will end up winning overall.
    My understanding is that Aragon has been described as "the Ohio of Spain"? Although of course now Ohio leans red rather than being purple.
    Katherine of Ohio doesn't quite have the same ring to it!
    Columbus, Aragon doesn’t really work either…
    Toledo, Ohio. Home of the Mud Hens!
    Upset the craftsmen of Toledo at your peril.

    Toledo was part of Castile not Aragon…
    Also seat of Lucas County.

    http://www.toledosistercities.org/sistercities/toledo-spain/#:~:text=Established in 1931, the Toledo,back to at least 1835.

    "Established in 1931, the Toledo, Ohio - Toledo, Spain connection is the oldest formally recognized sister-city relationship in the world. The cultural and historical connection, however, goes back to at least 1835.

    In that year the fledgling local newspaper, The Blade, figuratively rattled sabers, made of steel from the Spanish city, in defense of Ohio's claim to what is now Toledo, during the dustup with Michigan in what came to be known as the "Toledo War." . . . In 1909 Wamba, a medieval Spanish king, was chosen as patron and centerpiece of a folk festival along the banks of the Maumee. . . . And in the 1920s Toledo, Ohio's Rosary Cathedral was designed with a Spanish model in mind.

    n 1934 a delegation of local dignitaries, including a high school student, was invited by the city council of Toledo, Spain and the government of the Spanish Republic to attend the week-long Corpus Christi celebrations in Toledo, Spain. Plans were made for a Spanish delegation to return the visit in 1937 as part of Toledo, Ohio's centennial celebrations. However, the Spanish Civil War, World War II, and a dozen years of Spanish political isolation impeded any further formal contacts until the late 1950s.

    A Spanish delegation finally arrived in 1962, twenty-five years late. . . . In 1962 the first satellite phone call, via Telstar, between Spain and the US was between the city halls of our two cities. In 1966 the film El Greco, staring Mel Ferrer, was premiered in the Ohio Toledo. In 1971, in response to the naming of "Toledo, Ohio Street" in Spain, "Toledo Spain Plaza" was dedicated [in] Toledo, Ohio [which also] donated a Jeep to the municipal police of Toledo, Spain.

    In 1982 the Toledo Museum of Art hosted a magnificent exhibition of paintings by El Greco, and 1990 featured the dedication of the stunning mural of the two Toledos. . . . On the occasion of the seventy-fifth anniversary, King Juan Carlos, presiding
    at a ceremony of the Royal Foundation of Toledo, presented a plaque to the American delegation commemorating our enduring relationship.

    Distance from Toledo, Oh: 4,003 miles
    Benefit: Scholarship from The University of Toledo

    SSI - perhaps the LEAST known consequence of the Spanish Civil War, was absence of Spanish Toledo from 1937 Ohio Toledo centennial.
    Go wash your mouth out with soap

    Wamba was an EARLY medieval, not a medieval king
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,231
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Lennon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Anyone know how Aston Villa and Newcastle can be playing each other at this time of the night/morning?

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/football/elite-friendlies/newcastle-v-aston-villa-betting-32506839

    They are playing in Philadelphia (USA) with a 7pm local time kick-off (so Midnight kick off in the UK). It's part of a pre-season friendly tournament in the States I believe
    Thanks, I didn't know English teams played in other countries.
    Arsenal is playing Barcelona on Wednesday in Los Angeles: my son is going with a friend.
    That would be a fun match to see
This discussion has been closed.