Essentially, it’s a WW1 like stalemate. The Russians have got their act together - and of course it is easier to defend than attack. It’s literal trench warfare, a conflict of attrition - and Russia has more to attrit than Ukraine, tho Ukraine has more motivation to fight than Russia
I’ve spent the day marvelling at the bravery and endurance of the Ukrainians, but I fear they may have to accept an ugly armistice which divides Ukraine roughly where it is divided now. They can’t afford to kill all their young men, and that is the logical endpoint
If someone can show me an alternative and superior outcome for Ukraine that would be uplifting. I can’t see it
Some division always seemed likely. It is a question of backing their resistance so they dont feel pushed into that, which was the plan of Stop the West and fellow travellers. Hopefully they can push back closer to the 2014 lines at least.
I doubt they will get that. The counter offensive is failing. Russia has successfully dug in
Ukraine simply does not have the manpower to win a war of attrition like this. The alternative is the west provides them with huge super weapons. A seriously capable new air force. That’s not gonna happen
A Korean style armistice beckons
I'm not sure that's a great analogy.
This is an invasion. A large part of Ukraine is occupied with Russian troops.
Remember:: the invasion is usually the easy bit. Then there's the what next?
Because occupying countries is fucking tough: look at Afghanistan or Northern Ireland. It means that Russia is constantly sending money and young men out west, and for what?
I'm on the more pessimistic end of the scale, if not as pessimistic as Leon. I'm not convinced The West's commitment's will keep up more than another year or so, not real commitment.
Essentially, it’s a WW1 like stalemate. The Russians have got their act together - and of course it is easier to defend than attack. It’s literal trench warfare, a conflict of attrition - and Russia has more to attrit than Ukraine, tho Ukraine has more motivation to fight than Russia
I’ve spent the day marvelling at the bravery and endurance of the Ukrainians, but I fear they may have to accept an ugly armistice which divides Ukraine roughly where it is divided now. They can’t afford to kill all their young men, and that is the logical endpoint
If someone can show me an alternative and superior outcome for Ukraine that would be uplifting. I can’t see it
Some division always seemed likely. It is a question of backing their resistance so they dont feel pushed into that, which was the plan of Stop the West and fellow travellers. Hopefully they can push back closer to the 2014 lines at least.
I doubt they will get that. The counter offensive is failing. Russia has successfully dug in
Ukraine simply does not have the manpower to win a war of attrition like this. The alternative is the west provides them with huge super weapons. A seriously capable new air force. That’s not gonna happen
A Korean style armistice beckons
I'm not sure that's a great analogy.
This is an invasion. A large part of Ukraine is occupied with Russian troops.
Remember:: the invasion is usually the easy bit. Then there's the what next?
Because occupying countries is fucking tough: look at Afghanistan or Northern Ireland. It means that Russia is constantly sending money and young men out west, and for what?
Russia is Russifying the occupied territories very fast. Replacing Ukrainians with apparently loyal Russians or “new Russians”
That’s the plan
Of course in the long term this is disastrous for Russia as it will face an incredibly hostile Ukraine for generations. And a fifth column of Ukrainians inside Russia who could do anything
I reckon this ultimately ends with Putin being toppled because of this catastrophic error
However in the medium term, militarily, I don’t see how either side can win. And that means some sort of ceasefire, inevitably. It won’t be peace. It will be an armistice, a sort of truce: until next time
It took Ukraine three months to push the Russians out of Kherson.
Russia’s in a similar position to Germany after Kursk. The initiative has been lost, and they can only react to attacks. And they face an insurgency.
Re the voting data for the GE in Spain. The figures do not include the postal votes which will be higher this time as the election is taking place in the middle of the main Spanish holiday season. It may be notable however that currently Catalonia is ove 8 points lower than last time. Possibly worse news for the left than the right as PP/VOX get far fewer votes in the Communidad.
When will we start to get results, are they counting overnight?
Old Lviv is ridiculously lovely. Like a kind of Ruthenian Florence. But with more wounded men and sandbags
Ukrainians are not going to give up unless Putin kills them all
Did you need any special visa to cross the border?
No. Nothing at all
I actually have Press Accreditation from the Ukrainian army - meaning I can break curfew and go to combat zones (huzzah!) - but you don’t need anything at all. Just a UK passport and patience in dealing with transport delays. Book trains days ahead and arrive early etc
Expect cancellations. Factor in flexibility
I absolutely recommend any PBer to come. Bear witness. And lviv is incredible
It’s quite tough as well. All the wounded men
But jeez it puts everything in perspective. What the fuck are we moaning about in the UK? Cost of living crisis? Food banks? What a load of pathetic whining. We have grown fat and feeble
Gosh you're turning into a new Hemmingway! But please be careful when you go to the frontline. Bullets and bombs are no respecters of literary talent.
Pedant note. Hemingway surely. Hemmingway with 'mm' is used by PG Wodehouse in a short story.
Ah well is the PGW one an alcoholic American novelist with a spare prose style and a taste for war and machismo to counter his gender confusion? If so, my post stands with no edit required.
No. She is Soapy Sid's partner in crime in 'Pearls means tears'.
Essentially, it’s a WW1 like stalemate. The Russians have got their act together - and of course it is easier to defend than attack. It’s literal trench warfare, a conflict of attrition - and Russia has more to attrit than Ukraine, tho Ukraine has more motivation to fight than Russia
I’ve spent the day marvelling at the bravery and endurance of the Ukrainians, but I fear they may have to accept an ugly armistice which divides Ukraine roughly where it is divided now. They can’t afford to kill all their young men, and that is the logical endpoint
If someone can show me an alternative and superior outcome for Ukraine that would be uplifting. I can’t see it
Some division always seemed likely. It is a question of backing their resistance so they dont feel pushed into that, which was the plan of Stop the West and fellow travellers. Hopefully they can push back closer to the 2014 lines at least.
I doubt they will get that. The counter offensive is failing. Russia has successfully dug in
Ukraine simply does not have the manpower to win a war of attrition like this. The alternative is the west provides them with huge super weapons. A seriously capable new air force. That’s not gonna happen
A Korean style armistice beckons
I'm not sure that's a great analogy.
This is an invasion. A large part of Ukraine is occupied with Russian troops.
Remember:: the invasion is usually the easy bit. Then there's the what next?
Because occupying countries is fucking tough: look at Afghanistan or Northern Ireland. It means that Russia is constantly sending money and young men out west, and for what?
Russia is Russifying the occupied territories very fast. Replacing Ukrainians with apparently loyal Russians or “new Russians”
That’s the plan
Of course in the long term this is disastrous for Russia as it will face an incredibly hostile Ukraine for generations. And a fifth column of Ukrainians inside Russia who could do anything
I reckon this ultimately ends with Putin being toppled because of this catastrophic error
However in the medium term, militarily, I don’t see how either side can win. And that means some sort of ceasefire, inevitably. It won’t be peace. It will be an armistice, a sort of truce: until next time
It took Ukraine three months to push the Russians out of Kherson.
Russia’s in a similar position to Germany after Kursk. The initiative has been lost, and they can only react to attacks. And they face an insurgency.
That’s a fairly absurd analogy. The USSR had almost limitless men, and by 1943 huge supplies from the USA and UK. Nazi Germany was also fighting on at least two other fronts - with the Royal Navy and US navy confronting it at sea, and the RAF and USAF bombing Germany itself to cinders
Ukraine is not the USSR of 1943; Russia is not the Third Reich in inevitable retreat in 1943
Re the voting data for the GE in Spain. The figures do not include the postal votes which will be higher this time as the election is taking place in the middle of the main Spanish holiday season. It may be notable however that currently Catalonia is ove 8 points lower than last time. Possibly worse news for the left than the right as PP/VOX get far fewer votes in the Communidad.
When will we start to get results, are they counting overnight?
Yes very quickly - whole country should be counted in 3-4 hours. Counting will start 7pm BST and then results released from 8pm BST once polls close in the Canaries.
For Leon - while you're Lviv-ing it up, might be worth looking for signs of the local Polish community of (for them) Lvov.
Who back in the day (exactly which day depending on whose censuses you believe) comprised majority, or at least plurality, of the city's population. In contrast to most of it's hinterland, which was (mostly) predominately Ukrainian (or close enough).
Perhaps THE biggest factor in 20th-century Polish-Ukrainian conflict.
Old Lviv is ridiculously lovely. Like a kind of Ruthenian Florence. But with more wounded men and sandbags
Ukrainians are not going to give up unless Putin kills them all
Did you need any special visa to cross the border?
No. Nothing at all
I actually have Press Accreditation from the Ukrainian army - meaning I can break curfew and go to combat zones (huzzah!) - but you don’t need anything at all. Just a UK passport and patience in dealing with transport delays. Book trains days ahead and arrive early etc
Expect cancellations. Factor in flexibility
I absolutely recommend any PBer to come. Bear witness. And lviv is incredible
It’s quite tough as well. All the wounded men
But jeez it puts everything in perspective. What the fuck are we moaning about in the UK? Cost of living crisis? Food banks? What a load of pathetic whining. We have grown fat and feeble
Gosh you're turning into a new Hemmingway! But please be careful when you go to the frontline. Bullets and bombs are no respecters of literary talent.
Pedant note. Hemingway surely. Hemmingway with 'mm' is used by PG Wodehouse in a short story.
Ah well is the PGW one an alcoholic American novelist with a spare prose style and a taste for war and machismo to counter his gender confusion? If so, my post stands with no edit required.
No. She is Soapy Sid's partner in crime in 'Pearls means tears'.
Re the voting data for the GE in Spain. The figures do not include the postal votes which will be higher this time as the election is taking place in the middle of the main Spanish holiday season. It may be notable however that currently Catalonia is ove 8 points lower than last time. Possibly worse news for the left than the right as PP/VOX get far fewer votes in the Communidad.
When will we start to get results, are they counting overnight?
Yes very quickly - whole country should be counted in 3-4 hours. Counting will start 7pm BST and then results released from 8pm BST once polls close in the Canaries.
Essentially, it’s a WW1 like stalemate. The Russians have got their act together - and of course it is easier to defend than attack. It’s literal trench warfare, a conflict of attrition - and Russia has more to attrit than Ukraine, tho Ukraine has more motivation to fight than Russia
I’ve spent the day marvelling at the bravery and endurance of the Ukrainians, but I fear they may have to accept an ugly armistice which divides Ukraine roughly where it is divided now. They can’t afford to kill all their young men, and that is the logical endpoint
If someone can show me an alternative and superior outcome for Ukraine that would be uplifting. I can’t see it
Some division always seemed likely. It is a question of backing their resistance so they dont feel pushed into that, which was the plan of Stop the West and fellow travellers. Hopefully they can push back closer to the 2014 lines at least.
I doubt they will get that. The counter offensive is failing. Russia has successfully dug in
Ukraine simply does not have the manpower to win a war of attrition like this. The alternative is the west provides them with huge super weapons. A seriously capable new air force. That’s not gonna happen
A Korean style armistice beckons
I'm not sure that's a great analogy.
This is an invasion. A large part of Ukraine is occupied with Russian troops.
Remember:: the invasion is usually the easy bit. Then there's the what next?
Because occupying countries is fucking tough: look at Afghanistan or Northern Ireland. It means that Russia is constantly sending money and young men out west, and for what?
Russia is Russifying the occupied territories very fast. Replacing Ukrainians with apparently loyal Russians or “new Russians”
That’s the plan
Of course in the long term this is disastrous for Russia as it will face an incredibly hostile Ukraine for generations. And a fifth column of Ukrainians inside Russia who could do anything
I reckon this ultimately ends with Putin being toppled because of this catastrophic error
However in the medium term, militarily, I don’t see how either side can win. And that means some sort of ceasefire, inevitably. It won’t be peace. It will be an armistice, a sort of truce: until next time
It took Ukraine three months to push the Russians out of Kherson.
Russia’s in a similar position to Germany after Kursk. The initiative has been lost, and they can only react to attacks. And they face an insurgency.
That’s a fairly absurd analogy. The USSR had almost limitless men, and by 1943 huge supplies from the USA and UK. Nazi Germany was also fighting on at least two other fronts - with the Royal Navy and US navy confronting it at sea, and the RAF and USAF bombing Germany itself to cinders
Ukraine is not the USSR of 1943; Russia is not the Third Reich in inevitable retreat in 1943
Korea is the better comparison
Equipment resupply *is* an issue.
For example
Ukraine has largely converted to western 155mm tube artillery. While there are some issue with supply of ammo, more and more capacity is coming on line. Barrels need to be replaced frequently - they are getting replacements from around the world.
Russia is relying on stocks of 152mm - production is low and not increasing due to sanctions hitting. Barrel replacement is problematic - so you are seeing some vehicles being cannibalised for the barrels. And their equipment parks are stripped out already, of reserve self propelled artillery and towed. The older tanks being brought up are being used as ersatz self propelled artillery.
In some areas of the front, Ukraine is believed, by observers, to have more artillery capability than the Russians now.
Re the voting data for the GE in Spain. The figures do not include the postal votes which will be higher this time as the election is taking place in the middle of the main Spanish holiday season. It may be notable however that currently Catalonia is ove 8 points lower than last time. Possibly worse news for the left than the right as PP/VOX get far fewer votes in the Communidad.
When will we start to get results, are they counting overnight?
Exit poll at 8pm when the polls close. Counting is very quick as it's the D'Hondt method. As it could be very close it may be a while before we know which Coalition, if any, is viable, but the broad picture is likely to be apparent within a couple of hours.
In Lviv/Lvov/Lemburg there was also sizable Jewish community pre-WW2, who mostly knew the burg as לעמבעריק or Lemberik (romanized Yiddish).
Note that there was trend among Jewish people to adopt Polish language and to assimilate according, at least to some degree. Similar to adoption/assimilation of Hungarian Jews in Budapest, etc. to Magyar language and culture.
So the rain has basically destroyed the drama of this entire Ashes series?
Without it, England would have won and we'd have an amazing nail-biting final match to decide the 2-2 draw, one that could have gone down in history. Now, the best we'll get is a draw of the series. Which no-one cares about.
Please amend the rules of test cricket so we get a game if it's rained off - play should be deferred until it's dry again, not cancelled.
Essentially, it’s a WW1 like stalemate. The Russians have got their act together - and of course it is easier to defend than attack. It’s literal trench warfare, a conflict of attrition - and Russia has more to attrit than Ukraine, tho Ukraine has more motivation to fight than Russia
I’ve spent the day marvelling at the bravery and endurance of the Ukrainians, but I fear they may have to accept an ugly armistice which divides Ukraine roughly where it is divided now. They can’t afford to kill all their young men, and that is the logical endpoint
If someone can show me an alternative and superior outcome for Ukraine that would be uplifting. I can’t see it
Some division always seemed likely. It is a question of backing their resistance so they dont feel pushed into that, which was the plan of Stop the West and fellow travellers. Hopefully they can push back closer to the 2014 lines at least.
I doubt they will get that. The counter offensive is failing. Russia has successfully dug in
Ukraine simply does not have the manpower to win a war of attrition like this. The alternative is the west provides them with huge super weapons. A seriously capable new air force. That’s not gonna happen
A Korean style armistice beckons
I'm not sure that's a great analogy.
This is an invasion. A large part of Ukraine is occupied with Russian troops.
Remember:: the invasion is usually the easy bit. Then there's the what next?
Because occupying countries is fucking tough: look at Afghanistan or Northern Ireland. It means that Russia is constantly sending money and young men out west, and for what?
Russia is Russifying the occupied territories very fast. Replacing Ukrainians with apparently loyal Russians or “new Russians”
That’s the plan
Of course in the long term this is disastrous for Russia as it will face an incredibly hostile Ukraine for generations. And a fifth column of Ukrainians inside Russia who could do anything
I reckon this ultimately ends with Putin being toppled because of this catastrophic error
However in the medium term, militarily, I don’t see how either side can win. And that means some sort of ceasefire, inevitably. It won’t be peace. It will be an armistice, a sort of truce: until next time
It took Ukraine three months to push the Russians out of Kherson.
Russia’s in a similar position to Germany after Kursk. The initiative has been lost, and they can only react to attacks. And they face an insurgency.
That’s a fairly absurd analogy. The USSR had almost limitless men, and by 1943 huge supplies from the USA and UK. Nazi Germany was also fighting on at least two other fronts - with the Royal Navy and US navy confronting it at sea, and the RAF and USAF bombing Germany itself to cinders
Ukraine is not the USSR of 1943; Russia is not the Third Reich in inevitable retreat in 1943
Korea is the better comparison
Equipment resupply *is* an issue.
For example
Ukraine has largely converted to western 155mm tube artillery. While there are some issue with supply of ammo, more and more capacity is coming on line. Barrels need to be replaced frequently - they are getting replacements from around the world.
Russia is relying on stocks of 152mm - production is low and not increasing due to sanctions hitting. Barrel replacement is problematic - so you are seeing some vehicles being cannibalised for the barrels. And their equipment parks are stripped out already, of reserve self propelled artillery and towed. The older tanks being brought up are being used as ersatz self propelled artillery.
In some areas of the front, Ukraine is believed, by observers, to have more artillery capability than the Russians now.
And the conclusion is? If you were Russia what would you do?
Triggering a financial crash in the west as Iran did in 1987 would be one thing. And on the physical battlefield?
Re the voting data for the GE in Spain. The figures do not include the postal votes which will be higher this time as the election is taking place in the middle of the main Spanish holiday season. It may be notable however that currently Catalonia is ove 8 points lower than last time. Possibly worse news for the left than the right as PP/VOX get far fewer votes in the Communidad.
When will we start to get results, are they counting overnight?
Exit poll at 8pm when the polls close. Counting is very quick as it's the D'Hondt method. As it could be very close it may be a while before we know which Coalition, if any, is viable, but the broad picture is likely to be apparent within a couple of hours.
Gracias Señor. Will stay up watching the Indycar race and following along.
They’re singing the national anthem. There is music EVERYWHERE
I'm near Nessebar in Bulgaria, currently staying in a villa with a pool with a wide view over the Black Sea. I'm about 2 miles back in the hills overlooking it.
You couldn't move for Ukrainians in the local Aldi this morning - place was rammed. This is where many of the wealthy ones with means have escaped to.
Re Spain I assume there'll be an exit poll but it may not come till 9pm ET because of the Canaries being an hour behind. Also just seen a Catalonia turnout update - an extraordinary 11% fall with Madrid at -7%. Some of this will be down to postal vote increase. Also noticed a growth in turnout for Galicia where Feijoo PP leader won several times before leading the national party.
Re the voting data for the GE in Spain. The figures do not include the postal votes which will be higher this time as the election is taking place in the middle of the main Spanish holiday season. It may be notable however that currently Catalonia is ove 8 points lower than last time. Possibly worse news for the left than the right as PP/VOX get far fewer votes in the Communidad.
When will we start to get results, are they counting overnight?
Exit poll at 8pm when the polls close. Counting is very quick as it's the D'Hondt method. As it could be very close it may be a while before we know which Coalition, if any, is viable, but the broad picture is likely to be apparent within a couple of hours.
So what is/are "bellweather" area(s) for Spanish GEs, if there are any?
Re the voting data for the GE in Spain. The figures do not include the postal votes which will be higher this time as the election is taking place in the middle of the main Spanish holiday season. It may be notable however that currently Catalonia is ove 8 points lower than last time. Possibly worse news for the left than the right as PP/VOX get far fewer votes in the Communidad.
When will we start to get results, are they counting overnight?
Exit poll at 8pm when the polls close. Counting is very quick as it's the D'Hondt method. As it could be very close it may be a while before we know which Coalition, if any, is viable, but the broad picture is likely to be apparent within a couple of hours.
So what is/are "bellweather" area(s) for Spanish GEs, if there are any?
Re Spain I assume there'll be an exit poll but it may not come till 9pm ET because of the Canaries being an hour behind. Also just seen a Catalonia turnout update - an extraordinary 11% fall with Madrid at -7%. Some of this will be down to postal vote increase. Also noticed a growth in turnout for Galicia where Feijoo PP leader won several times before leading the national party.
ALWAYS keep yer eye on them Celts . . . as they/we ALWAYS bear watching . . .
(Leastways when you're NOT preoccupied watching bears!)
Re the voting data for the GE in Spain. The figures do not include the postal votes which will be higher this time as the election is taking place in the middle of the main Spanish holiday season. It may be notable however that currently Catalonia is ove 8 points lower than last time. Possibly worse news for the left than the right as PP/VOX get far fewer votes in the Communidad.
When will we start to get results, are they counting overnight?
Exit poll at 8pm when the polls close. Counting is very quick as it's the D'Hondt method. As it could be very close it may be a while before we know which Coalition, if any, is viable, but the broad picture is likely to be apparent within a couple of hours.
So what is/are "bellweather" area(s) for Spanish GEs, if there are any?
bellwether, doh!
My question both psephological AND meteorological.
Re the voting data for the GE in Spain. The figures do not include the postal votes which will be higher this time as the election is taking place in the middle of the main Spanish holiday season. It may be notable however that currently Catalonia is ove 8 points lower than last time. Possibly worse news for the left than the right as PP/VOX get far fewer votes in the Communidad.
When will we start to get results, are they counting overnight?
Exit poll at 8pm when the polls close. Counting is very quick as it's the D'Hondt method. As it could be very close it may be a while before we know which Coalition, if any, is viable, but the broad picture is likely to be apparent within a couple of hours.
So what is/are "bellweather" area(s) for Spanish GEs, if there are any?
bellwether, doh!
My question both psephological AND meteorological.
Re the voting data for the GE in Spain. The figures do not include the postal votes which will be higher this time as the election is taking place in the middle of the main Spanish holiday season. It may be notable however that currently Catalonia is ove 8 points lower than last time. Possibly worse news for the left than the right as PP/VOX get far fewer votes in the Communidad.
When will we start to get results, are they counting overnight?
Exit poll at 8pm when the polls close. Counting is very quick as it's the D'Hondt method. As it could be very close it may be a while before we know which Coalition, if any, is viable, but the broad picture is likely to be apparent within a couple of hours.
So what is/are "bellweather" area(s) for Spanish GEs, if there are any?
bellwether, doh!
My question both psephological AND meteorological.
A bellwether is a flock-leading ram wearing a bell. Nothing to do with the weather.
Re the voting data for the GE in Spain. The figures do not include the postal votes which will be higher this time as the election is taking place in the middle of the main Spanish holiday season. It may be notable however that currently Catalonia is ove 8 points lower than last time. Possibly worse news for the left than the right as PP/VOX get far fewer votes in the Communidad.
When will we start to get results, are they counting overnight?
Exit poll at 8pm when the polls close. Counting is very quick as it's the D'Hondt method. As it could be very close it may be a while before we know which Coalition, if any, is viable, but the broad picture is likely to be apparent within a couple of hours.
So what is/are "bellweather" area(s) for Spanish GEs, if there are any?
bellwether, doh!
My question both psephological AND meteorological.
A bellwether is a flock-leading ram wearing a bell. Nothing to do with the weather.
But (as noted) yours truly is talking about "bellweathers". So there!
They’re singing the national anthem. There is music EVERYWHERE
I'm near Nessebar in Bulgaria, currently staying in a villa with a pool with a wide view over the Black Sea. I'm about 2 miles back in the hills overlooking it.
You couldn't move for Ukrainians in the local Aldi this morning - place was rammed. This is where many of the wealthy ones with means have escaped to.
Essentially, it’s a WW1 like stalemate. The Russians have got their act together - and of course it is easier to defend than attack. It’s literal trench warfare, a conflict of attrition - and Russia has more to attrit than Ukraine, tho Ukraine has more motivation to fight than Russia
I’ve spent the day marvelling at the bravery and endurance of the Ukrainians, but I fear they may have to accept an ugly armistice which divides Ukraine roughly where it is divided now. They can’t afford to kill all their young men, and that is the logical endpoint
If someone can show me an alternative and superior outcome for Ukraine that would be uplifting. I can’t see it
Some division always seemed likely. It is a question of backing their resistance so they dont feel pushed into that, which was the plan of Stop the West and fellow travellers. Hopefully they can push back closer to the 2014 lines at least.
I doubt they will get that. The counter offensive is failing. Russia has successfully dug in
Ukraine simply does not have the manpower to win a war of attrition like this. The alternative is the west provides them with huge super weapons. A seriously capable new air force. That’s not gonna happen
A Korean style armistice beckons
I'm not sure that's a great analogy.
This is an invasion. A large part of Ukraine is occupied with Russian troops.
Remember:: the invasion is usually the easy bit. Then there's the what next?
Because occupying countries is fucking tough: look at Afghanistan or Northern Ireland. It means that Russia is constantly sending money and young men out west, and for what?
Russia is Russifying the occupied territories very fast. Replacing Ukrainians with apparently loyal Russians or “new Russians”
That’s the plan
Of course in the long term this is disastrous for Russia as it will face an incredibly hostile Ukraine for generations. And a fifth column of Ukrainians inside Russia who could do anything
I reckon this ultimately ends with Putin being toppled because of this catastrophic error
However in the medium term, militarily, I don’t see how either side can win. And that means some sort of ceasefire, inevitably. It won’t be peace. It will be an armistice, a sort of truce: until next time
It took Ukraine three months to push the Russians out of Kherson.
Russia’s in a similar position to Germany after Kursk. The initiative has been lost, and they can only react to attacks. And they face an insurgency.
That’s a fairly absurd analogy. The USSR had almost limitless men, and by 1943 huge supplies from the USA and UK. Nazi Germany was also fighting on at least two other fronts - with the Royal Navy and US navy confronting it at sea, and the RAF and USAF bombing Germany itself to cinders
Ukraine is not the USSR of 1943; Russia is not the Third Reich in inevitable retreat in 1943
Korea is the better comparison
Equipment resupply *is* an issue.
For example
Ukraine has largely converted to western 155mm tube artillery. While there are some issue with supply of ammo, more and more capacity is coming on line. Barrels need to be replaced frequently - they are getting replacements from around the world.
Russia is relying on stocks of 152mm - production is low and not increasing due to sanctions hitting. Barrel replacement is problematic - so you are seeing some vehicles being cannibalised for the barrels. And their equipment parks are stripped out already, of reserve self propelled artillery and towed. The older tanks being brought up are being used as ersatz self propelled artillery.
In some areas of the front, Ukraine is believed, by observers, to have more artillery capability than the Russians now.
And the conclusion is? If you were Russia what would you do?
Triggering a financial crash in the west as Iran did in 1987 would be one thing. And on the physical battlefield?
What I would do, is remember the lesson from the Sandhurst war gaming of Sea Lion.
The young officer playing the part of Goering was asked why he was apparently sabotaging the German side. He explained that he was play Goering as trying to win.. at the Game of Nazi Hierarchy, since defeating the U.K. wasn’t as option.
Putin’s primary goal is remaining alive. The primary goal of those around him is the same.
Triggering a financial crash? How? Russian oil and gas trades at a vast negative premium, now. Supply from the US and elsewhere is growing.
On the battlefield, Russia is not receiving much support from its allies. And what they are receiving is telling - a few trainloads of shells from North Korea and a few ships loads of arms from South Africa.
Meanwhile, the US military industrial base is having a high old time - get rid of stocks of the old, push new into service and ramp up munitions production. Across Europe the same.
Suella Braverman really is a fucking nasty piece of work.
The fact that he had a 9 month sentence (within the limits of the magistrates court) suggests the courts didn’t view it as a particularly serious variety of the offence (clearly possession with intent to supply can cover much more serious crimes).
They’re singing the national anthem. There is music EVERYWHERE
I'm near Nessebar in Bulgaria, currently staying in a villa with a pool with a wide view over the Black Sea. I'm about 2 miles back in the hills overlooking it.
You couldn't move for Ukrainians in the local Aldi this morning - place was rammed. This is where many of the wealthy ones with means have escaped to.
What, to the extent you can tell, is attitude of Bulgarians, in the war in general, and specifically re: the Ukrainians now among them?
@Miklosvar has a point on Rhodes. This does not sound “normal”
“Greece mounted its largest-ever island evacuation this weekend, moving close to 19,000 people on Rhodes to escape wildfires that have prompted some tour operators to cancel flights to the popular destination.”
Which is why we need policies that aren’t regressive taxation. Note that the climate change levy on energy bills isn’t a problem because it is *equal*. Well, kinda. The rich have the best insulated homes, of course.
Green New Deal funded by Wealth Tax then. Done.
You seem to think only the rich will pay a wealth tax. Clue they wont
Renters will have the wealth tax added to their rent People who have paid off 10% of a 400,000 pound house will be paying wealth tax on the full 400k noth the 40k they actually own. Poor pensioners that live on nothing more than a state pension but in the 40 years since they paid off their house that has now increased to an incredible price will suddenly find the wealth tax eating half their pension, fuel prices stealing the other half and food inflation swallowing another 20%
On the Truss episode. The whole thing looking back is one of the weirdest episodes in British politics I’ve seen for some time. And we’ve had a lot of weirdness in the past 8 years.
Firstly, the only way she could have hoped to ride out the storm (which was already of her own making) would have been to double down, back Kwarteng and tell her critics to stuff it and wait and see the positive results. The problem is that one has to be made of exceptionally strong stuff to be able to do that, when everyone is out to get you, and one has to be a decent communicator. Truss was neither. She liked to think of herself as a latter day Thatcher but she couldn’t hack it. She blinked. And she showed the pressure. And from there it was inevitable the whole thing would collapse.
Secondly, this all came about because of a highly deranged Tory leadership contest where the issue of tax cuts came out of absolutely nowhere and became the primary issue of the campaign, DESPITE this being pretty low on the list of public priorities. She leaned into this far too much and created a rod for her own back.
Thirdly Truss was naive to the extreme in thinking the mandate from Tory members gave her mandate to do whatever she liked as PM. Constitutionally maybe, but certainly not in the eyes of the public. She should have spent the time leading up to the next election speaking about and arguing for a pro-growth agenda but recognising that it would need a mandate at the next GE. She could do some small things to “set the groundwork” where possible, but really take the time to actually argue her point rather than go in all guns blazing.
I am afraid the conclusion I draw from all 3 items above is that, fundamentally, Liz Truss did not have the political skills to be PM and was grossly overpromoted in getting the role. Not up to it. Unfortunately the country suffers as a result.
Personally have witness (from afar) plenty of British political weirdness over the last 60 years.
With the Trussterfuq being the weirdest.
At least struggling at moment, to recall anything weirder. Or Wackier.
It was a surprise on the upside for wackiness, at least.
Ukraine's glory and freedom will have not yet perished, Still upon us, young brothers, fate shall smile. Our enemies shall vanish, like dew in the sun. We too shall rule, brothers, in our country.
But how does it sound when sung in the open, @Leon?
Mass astonishment has been reported in Israel at the news Binjamin Netanyahu has been fitted with a pacemaker.
'Turns out it really was heart trouble,' said one protestor near Nazareth. 'That's really surprising. All these years and it's the first evidence the bastard actually has one.'
Protests have been paused while people consider the implications of this news, but the Palestinian Authority said it was clearly a conspiracy to cover up the fact Netanyahu has swallowed the poison he usually spouts.
(Incidentally - that's a rough paraphrase of an Israeli friend of mine who works at Yad Vashem, but with fewer c bombs.)
They’re singing the national anthem. There is music EVERYWHERE
I'm near Nessebar in Bulgaria, currently staying in a villa with a pool with a wide view over the Black Sea. I'm about 2 miles back in the hills overlooking it.
You couldn't move for Ukrainians in the local Aldi this morning - place was rammed. This is where many of the wealthy ones with means have escaped to.
Aldi or the trenches? Tough call.
So how are the poorer ones back in the Ukraine feeling, now that so many of the rich have f***ed off?
Ok so links below for one of the hotter election days I've followed (Canada Jan 2006 probably the coldest), lots of fans being waved and water bottles in the polling stations.
Polls close on the mainland at 7pm BST and results should be released from 8pm BST once the Canary Islands have finished voting.
Votes will be counted at polling stations (as in most countries) and with Spain being one of the fastest-counting larger countries, the whole country should be pretty much counted quicker than it took Uxbridge to get to recount stage on Thursday night.
Spain has a closed-list PR system using d'Hondt, with a 3% threshold, but the 50 provinces are the constituencies, so in the smaller ones that elect 3 or 4 MPs, the key will be who wins the 3rd and 4th seats, as only in the larger provinces such as Madrid or Barcelona are the results more proportional.
For tonight, my gut feeling is that PP + Vox will just get over the 176-seat majority line and Feijoo to be next PM, with PP finishing a few points ahead of the PSOE, and the leftwing grouping Sumar finishing in fourth. However it could be close, and if neither PP/Vox or PSOE/Sumar have a majority, it will depend on how the various nationalist/regionalist parties go with their support for a government. If PP+Vox is a majority, will it be confidence and supply, or a full coalition?
Finally, Thursday night was a lot of fun, an interesting set of results, really enjoyed the updates and banter, and thanks again to HYUFD for his Uxbridge insight which translated into a winning bet for me.
Andy, you do know that trans people existed before 1995, yes? Also that David Bowie famously "dated" a trans woman in his 1970s Berlin days?
I know PB has no memory, but still this place is sometimes so ahistorical it's weird. I keep thinking I have to remind people that James Callaghan existed and was Prime Minister. MoonRabbit's view of unions is so warped it's scary
Re the voting data for the GE in Spain. The figures do not include the postal votes which will be higher this time as the election is taking place in the middle of the main Spanish holiday season. It may be notable however that currently Catalonia is ove 8 points lower than last time. Possibly worse news for the left than the right as PP/VOX get far fewer votes in the Communidad.
When will we start to get results, are they counting overnight?
Exit poll at 8pm when the polls close. Counting is very quick as it's the D'Hondt method. As it could be very close it may be a while before we know which Coalition, if any, is viable, but the broad picture is likely to be apparent within a couple of hours.
So what is/are "bellweather" area(s) for Spanish GEs, if there are any?
Large Communities and some cities but there aren't constituencies in the UK sense. The biggest in Andalucia which PP took 2/3 years ago on an unprecedented landslide. Without a big recovery there Sanchez will struggle to be largets party. Then we have Catalunia and Madrid both big the former with a significant nationalist vote althjough their turnout figures look very low today. Finally, Galicia - Feijjo's great PP stronghold. However, the polls have been somewhat unclear, and it's not clear who will end up winning overall.
They’re singing the national anthem. There is music EVERYWHERE
I'm near Nessebar in Bulgaria, currently staying in a villa with a pool with a wide view over the Black Sea. I'm about 2 miles back in the hills overlooking it.
You couldn't move for Ukrainians in the local Aldi this morning - place was rammed. This is where many of the wealthy ones with means have escaped to.
Norway has taken a fair few of the refugees (women and children), and I was talking to three in Bronnoysund last week. They are pleased to be out of it but it's a strange environment for them to be knocking about in, although at least the cold winter won't be unfamiliar
They’re singing the national anthem. There is music EVERYWHERE
I'm near Nessebar in Bulgaria, currently staying in a villa with a pool with a wide view over the Black Sea. I'm about 2 miles back in the hills overlooking it.
You couldn't move for Ukrainians in the local Aldi this morning - place was rammed. This is where many of the wealthy ones with means have escaped to.
Aldi or the trenches? Tough call.
So how are the poorer ones back in the Ukraine feeling, now that so many of the rich have f***ed off?
Never a good look when the rich avoid fighting, see the US in Vietnam, however at least it’s not just a Ukrainian issue as the same, of not worse with Russia. You will appreciate I hope that, having walked through the War Cloister most days, in the good old days the rich did their bit.
Essentially, it’s a WW1 like stalemate. The Russians have got their act together - and of course it is easier to defend than attack. It’s literal trench warfare, a conflict of attrition - and Russia has more to attrit than Ukraine, tho Ukraine has more motivation to fight than Russia
I’ve spent the day marvelling at the bravery and endurance of the Ukrainians, but I fear they may have to accept an ugly armistice which divides Ukraine roughly where it is divided now. They can’t afford to kill all their young men, and that is the logical endpoint
If someone can show me an alternative and superior outcome for Ukraine that would be uplifting. I can’t see it
Some division always seemed likely. It is a question of backing their resistance so they dont feel pushed into that, which was the plan of Stop the West and fellow travellers. Hopefully they can push back closer to the 2014 lines at least.
I doubt they will get that. The counter offensive is failing. Russia has successfully dug in
Ukraine simply does not have the manpower to win a war of attrition like this. The alternative is the west provides them with huge super weapons. A seriously capable new air force. That’s not gonna happen
A Korean style armistice beckons
I'm not sure that's a great analogy.
This is an invasion. A large part of Ukraine is occupied with Russian troops.
Remember:: the invasion is usually the easy bit. Then there's the what next?
Because occupying countries is fucking tough: look at Afghanistan or Northern Ireland. It means that Russia is constantly sending money and young men out west, and for what?
Russia is Russifying the occupied territories very fast. Replacing Ukrainians with apparently loyal Russians or “new Russians”
That’s the plan
Of course in the long term this is disastrous for Russia as it will face an incredibly hostile Ukraine for generations. And a fifth column of Ukrainians inside Russia who could do anything
I reckon this ultimately ends with Putin being toppled because of this catastrophic error
However in the medium term, militarily, I don’t see how either side can win. And that means some sort of ceasefire, inevitably. It won’t be peace. It will be an armistice, a sort of truce: until next time
It took Ukraine three months to push the Russians out of Kherson.
Russia’s in a similar position to Germany after Kursk. The initiative has been lost, and they can only react to attacks. And they face an insurgency.
The problem with an 'armistice' is that it is giving Russia what it wants, it gives the regime its victory. They will just restart the invasion again when the time is right/it suits them.
If the offensive doesn't work, the next best solution may be to just water down the conflict so it is bogged down along the current lines, but keep on testing the Russian defences, so they have to spend loads of energy defending their line in Ukraine. And at the same time look at ways of testing out the Russians on other fronts, so Ukraine becomes more and more of a problem for them. A realistic endgame is something like the current occupied lands being a demilitarised buffer zone.
Essentially, it’s a WW1 like stalemate. The Russians have got their act together - and of course it is easier to defend than attack. It’s literal trench warfare, a conflict of attrition - and Russia has more to attrit than Ukraine, tho Ukraine has more motivation to fight than Russia
I’ve spent the day marvelling at the bravery and endurance of the Ukrainians, but I fear they may have to accept an ugly armistice which divides Ukraine roughly where it is divided now. They can’t afford to kill all their young men, and that is the logical endpoint
If someone can show me an alternative and superior outcome for Ukraine that would be uplifting. I can’t see it
Some division always seemed likely. It is a question of backing their resistance so they dont feel pushed into that, which was the plan of Stop the West and fellow travellers. Hopefully they can push back closer to the 2014 lines at least.
I doubt they will get that. The counter offensive is failing. Russia has successfully dug in
Ukraine simply does not have the manpower to win a war of attrition like this. The alternative is the west provides them with huge super weapons. A seriously capable new air force. That’s not gonna happen
A Korean style armistice beckons
I'm not sure that's a great analogy.
This is an invasion. A large part of Ukraine is occupied with Russian troops.
Remember:: the invasion is usually the easy bit. Then there's the what next?
Because occupying countries is fucking tough: look at Afghanistan or Northern Ireland. It means that Russia is constantly sending money and young men out west, and for what?
Russia is Russifying the occupied territories very fast. Replacing Ukrainians with apparently loyal Russians or “new Russians”
That’s the plan
Of course in the long term this is disastrous for Russia as it will face an incredibly hostile Ukraine for generations. And a fifth column of Ukrainians inside Russia who could do anything
I reckon this ultimately ends with Putin being toppled because of this catastrophic error
However in the medium term, militarily, I don’t see how either side can win. And that means some sort of ceasefire, inevitably. It won’t be peace. It will be an armistice, a sort of truce: until next time
It took Ukraine three months to push the Russians out of Kherson.
Russia’s in a similar position to Germany after Kursk. The initiative has been lost, and they can only react to attacks. And they face an insurgency.
That’s a fairly absurd analogy. The USSR had almost limitless men, and by 1943 huge supplies from the USA and UK. Nazi Germany was also fighting on at least two other fronts - with the Royal Navy and US navy confronting it at sea, and the RAF and USAF bombing Germany itself to cinders
Ukraine is not the USSR of 1943; Russia is not the Third Reich in inevitable retreat in 1943
Korea is the better comparison
Just repeating something, doesn't make it so.
Russia is under enormous strain right now. They are begging their allies for any weapons they can, and who is stepping up? Hardly anyone.
By contrast, Ukraine gets better equipped by the day.
Don't forget, Russia's big advantage was artillery. But barrels don't last forever. Every time you fire there's a thermal expansion, contractions cycle, and that means they are running through their artillery pieces at a rate, even as the West continues to ship new (better) kit to Ukraine.
Essentially, it’s a WW1 like stalemate. The Russians have got their act together - and of course it is easier to defend than attack. It’s literal trench warfare, a conflict of attrition - and Russia has more to attrit than Ukraine, tho Ukraine has more motivation to fight than Russia
I’ve spent the day marvelling at the bravery and endurance of the Ukrainians, but I fear they may have to accept an ugly armistice which divides Ukraine roughly where it is divided now. They can’t afford to kill all their young men, and that is the logical endpoint
If someone can show me an alternative and superior outcome for Ukraine that would be uplifting. I can’t see it
Some division always seemed likely. It is a question of backing their resistance so they dont feel pushed into that, which was the plan of Stop the West and fellow travellers. Hopefully they can push back closer to the 2014 lines at least.
I doubt they will get that. The counter offensive is failing. Russia has successfully dug in
Ukraine simply does not have the manpower to win a war of attrition like this. The alternative is the west provides them with huge super weapons. A seriously capable new air force. That’s not gonna happen
A Korean style armistice beckons
I'm not sure that's a great analogy.
This is an invasion. A large part of Ukraine is occupied with Russian troops.
Remember:: the invasion is usually the easy bit. Then there's the what next?
Because occupying countries is fucking tough: look at Afghanistan or Northern Ireland. It means that Russia is constantly sending money and young men out west, and for what?
Russia is Russifying the occupied territories very fast. Replacing Ukrainians with apparently loyal Russians or “new Russians”
That’s the plan
Of course in the long term this is disastrous for Russia as it will face an incredibly hostile Ukraine for generations. And a fifth column of Ukrainians inside Russia who could do anything
I reckon this ultimately ends with Putin being toppled because of this catastrophic error
However in the medium term, militarily, I don’t see how either side can win. And that means some sort of ceasefire, inevitably. It won’t be peace. It will be an armistice, a sort of truce: until next time
It took Ukraine three months to push the Russians out of Kherson.
Russia’s in a similar position to Germany after Kursk. The initiative has been lost, and they can only react to attacks. And they face an insurgency.
The problem with an 'armistice' is that it is giving Russia what it wants, it gives the regime its victory. They will just restart the invasion again when the time is right/it suits them.
If the offensive doesn't work, the next best solution may be to just water down the conflict so it is bogged down along the current lines, but keep on testing the Russian defences, so they have to spend loads of energy defending their line in Ukraine. And at the same time look at ways of testing out the Russians on other fronts, so Ukraine becomes more and more of a problem for them. A realistic endgame is something like the current occupied lands being a demilitarised buffer zone.
I think it most unlikely that Ukraine would agree to demilitarise its border with Russia. Certainly Russia will not agree to it.
@Miklosvar has a point on Rhodes. This does not sound “normal”
“Greece mounted its largest-ever island evacuation this weekend, moving close to 19,000 people on Rhodes to escape wildfires that have prompted some tour operators to cancel flights to the popular destination.”
Which is why we need policies that aren’t regressive taxation. Note that the climate change levy on energy bills isn’t a problem because it is *equal*. Well, kinda. The rich have the best insulated homes, of course.
Green New Deal funded by Wealth Tax then. Done.
You seem to think only the rich will pay a wealth tax. Clue they wont
Renters will have the wealth tax added to their rent People who have paid off 10% of a 400,000 pound house will be paying wealth tax on the full 400k noth the 40k they actually own. Poor pensioners that live on nothing more than a state pension but in the 40 years since they paid off their house that has now increased to an incredible price will suddenly find the wealth tax eating half their pension, fuel prices stealing the other half and food inflation swallowing another 20%
The rich will find ways around the wealth tax
Well we were looking at non-regressive ways to fund important things like saving the planet. What taxes would you rather use?
Essentially, it’s a WW1 like stalemate. The Russians have got their act together - and of course it is easier to defend than attack. It’s literal trench warfare, a conflict of attrition - and Russia has more to attrit than Ukraine, tho Ukraine has more motivation to fight than Russia
I’ve spent the day marvelling at the bravery and endurance of the Ukrainians, but I fear they may have to accept an ugly armistice which divides Ukraine roughly where it is divided now. They can’t afford to kill all their young men, and that is the logical endpoint
If someone can show me an alternative and superior outcome for Ukraine that would be uplifting. I can’t see it
Some division always seemed likely. It is a question of backing their resistance so they dont feel pushed into that, which was the plan of Stop the West and fellow travellers. Hopefully they can push back closer to the 2014 lines at least.
I doubt they will get that. The counter offensive is failing. Russia has successfully dug in
Ukraine simply does not have the manpower to win a war of attrition like this. The alternative is the west provides them with huge super weapons. A seriously capable new air force. That’s not gonna happen
A Korean style armistice beckons
I'm not sure that's a great analogy.
This is an invasion. A large part of Ukraine is occupied with Russian troops.
Remember:: the invasion is usually the easy bit. Then there's the what next?
Because occupying countries is fucking tough: look at Afghanistan or Northern Ireland. It means that Russia is constantly sending money and young men out west, and for what?
Russia is Russifying the occupied territories very fast. Replacing Ukrainians with apparently loyal Russians or “new Russians”
That’s the plan
Of course in the long term this is disastrous for Russia as it will face an incredibly hostile Ukraine for generations. And a fifth column of Ukrainians inside Russia who could do anything
I reckon this ultimately ends with Putin being toppled because of this catastrophic error
However in the medium term, militarily, I don’t see how either side can win. And that means some sort of ceasefire, inevitably. It won’t be peace. It will be an armistice, a sort of truce: until next time
It took Ukraine three months to push the Russians out of Kherson.
Russia’s in a similar position to Germany after Kursk. The initiative has been lost, and they can only react to attacks. And they face an insurgency.
The problem with an 'armistice' is that it is giving Russia what it wants, it gives the regime its victory. They will just restart the invasion again when the time is right/it suits them.
If the offensive doesn't work, the next best solution may be to just water down the conflict so it is bogged down along the current lines, but keep on testing the Russian defences, so they have to spend loads of energy defending their line in Ukraine. And at the same time look at ways of testing out the Russians on other fronts, so Ukraine becomes more and more of a problem for them. A realistic endgame is something like the current occupied lands being a demilitarised buffer zone.
If you get the Ukranians in a really good mood, that might just about be their final possibility.
Their opening though, will be that there’s a 5km buffer zone entirely on the Russian side of the pre-war border, so that Russia actually loses territory for the invasion
Andy, you do know that trans people existed before 1995, yes? Also that David Bowie famously "dated" a trans woman in his 1970s Berlin days?
I know PB has no memory, but still this place is sometimes so ahistorical it's weird. I keep thinking I have to remind people that James Callaghan existed and was Prime Minister. MoonRabbit's view of unions is so warped it's scary
PB has the memory of the people it contains. Which always looks weird from a different timescale. For some, a decade ago is before they were interested in the world around them…
A simple example -
When I told people of a time when carpets were fitted (at relatively high expense) by a number of British workmen, it was met with incredulity. And that was 1998. Globalisation has collapsed costs and wages.
But to many here, a new carpet for a flat has always been a few hundred quid and fitted by a lone Bosnian* guy in a tearing hurry to get to his next job.
*Recent job I had done. He drank double espressos as fast I could make them. By the end of the job he was The Flash.
@Miklosvar has a point on Rhodes. This does not sound “normal”
“Greece mounted its largest-ever island evacuation this weekend, moving close to 19,000 people on Rhodes to escape wildfires that have prompted some tour operators to cancel flights to the popular destination.”
Which is why we need policies that aren’t regressive taxation. Note that the climate change levy on energy bills isn’t a problem because it is *equal*. Well, kinda. The rich have the best insulated homes, of course.
Green New Deal funded by Wealth Tax then. Done.
You seem to think only the rich will pay a wealth tax. Clue they wont
Renters will have the wealth tax added to their rent People who have paid off 10% of a 400,000 pound house will be paying wealth tax on the full 400k noth the 40k they actually own. Poor pensioners that live on nothing more than a state pension but in the 40 years since they paid off their house that has now increased to an incredible price will suddenly find the wealth tax eating half their pension, fuel prices stealing the other half and food inflation swallowing another 20%
The rich will find ways around the wealth tax
Well we were looking at non-regressive ways to fund important things like saving the planet. What taxes would you rather use?
Taxes won't save the planet.
They'll just get soaked up by bureaucrats, as always.
Incentivise technology to solve climate change, and it will be done.
Re the voting data for the GE in Spain. The figures do not include the postal votes which will be higher this time as the election is taking place in the middle of the main Spanish holiday season. It may be notable however that currently Catalonia is ove 8 points lower than last time. Possibly worse news for the left than the right as PP/VOX get far fewer votes in the Communidad.
When will we start to get results, are they counting overnight?
Exit poll at 8pm when the polls close. Counting is very quick as it's the D'Hondt method. As it could be very close it may be a while before we know which Coalition, if any, is viable, but the broad picture is likely to be apparent within a couple of hours.
So what is/are "bellweather" area(s) for Spanish GEs, if there are any?
Large Communities and some cities but there aren't constituencies in the UK sense. The biggest in Andalucia which PP took 2/3 years ago on an unprecedented landslide. Without a big recovery there Sanchez will struggle to be largets party. Then we have Catalunia and Madrid both big the former with a significant nationalist vote althjough their turnout figures look very low today. Finally, Galicia - Feijjo's great PP stronghold. However, the polls have been somewhat unclear, and it's not clear who will end up winning overall.
My understanding is that Aragon has been described as "the Ohio of Spain"? Although of course now Ohio leans red rather than being purple.
@Leon, @Sandpit, you are both on the discussion group I created about Ukraine. The TLDR is that both sides have to burn up a goodly number of men and materiel to capture very small areas. The Ukraine counter offensive has over the past two months retaken two rectangles each about 50sq km in the Zaporhizia oblast. The Russian capture of Bakhmut took about 25sq km in a similar period. These moves are each less than 0.5% of the area of 2014 Ukraine.
In that discussion group @LostPassword made some good points about attriting (yes, it's a word) the Russians: although I agree with him he thinks it'll take months and I think it'll take over a year. The war is following a similar structure to WW1: a war of manoeuvre expected to last month's becomes congested due to new weapons, movement ceases, trenches are laid, artillery uses up shells in their millions, there is a Shell Crisis as prewar stocks are used up and production must ramp up to keep the sides supplied.
In the discussion group I gave links to three or four videos discussing the situation. The total watch time is about 3hrs so you would be forgiven for not watching them but they explain the supply and attrition issue in much greater depth.
(Ps @rcs1000 do you want to join in? I'm on the tablet so I don't know how to add you) (PPS it takes a long time to burn up millions of men. Ukraine has a while to go yet)
Exit poll from GAD 3 at 8pm ET. Watching Spanish news commentators bemoaning the failure of the young to turnout and some thoughts that the postsls might favour the right. Sound familiar!
@Miklosvar has a point on Rhodes. This does not sound “normal”
“Greece mounted its largest-ever island evacuation this weekend, moving close to 19,000 people on Rhodes to escape wildfires that have prompted some tour operators to cancel flights to the popular destination.”
Which is why we need policies that aren’t regressive taxation. Note that the climate change levy on energy bills isn’t a problem because it is *equal*. Well, kinda. The rich have the best insulated homes, of course.
Green New Deal funded by Wealth Tax then. Done.
You seem to think only the rich will pay a wealth tax. Clue they wont
Renters will have the wealth tax added to their rent People who have paid off 10% of a 400,000 pound house will be paying wealth tax on the full 400k noth the 40k they actually own. Poor pensioners that live on nothing more than a state pension but in the 40 years since they paid off their house that has now increased to an incredible price will suddenly find the wealth tax eating half their pension, fuel prices stealing the other half and food inflation swallowing another 20%
The rich will find ways around the wealth tax
Well we were looking at non-regressive ways to fund important things like saving the planet. What taxes would you rather use?
Taxes won't save the planet.
They'll just get soaked up by bureaucrats, as always.
Incentivise technology to solve climate change, and it will be done.
One technique to (partially) get round the problem is to hypothecate taxes into subsidies for the “good” actors. Hence auto makers having to buy carbon credits (in some places) from EV manufacturers.
This avoids tax addiction by the government - see cigarettes* - in addition to tax goes away when the problem ends.
*in a number of countries the tax on cigarettes is such that you are buying a pack of cigarettes from the government and giving a small tip to the tobacco companies. Which leads to the government actually not being *that* keen on reductions in smoking.
MPs jumping on NIMBY bandwagons is just a symptom of course. They have no ability to impact a decision, and opposers will be much louder, so it almost always makes sense for them to come out against - if it gets approved they can always blame the local council or an inspector. Being in favour has equally no impact on the decision, and pleases fewer people.
MPs do have the ability to affect things, they set the f***ing law.
MPs could and should strip NIMBYs of the right to interfere or have any say at all in what other people do with their own land. As has already been done by MPs in Japan to great success.
We need Parliament to change the law. Only MPs can do that.
Japan has much tougher immigration laws than we do, it is extremely difficult to get permanent residence in Japan. Combined with their low birthrate they thus need less new housing
Empty homes aren't a problem they're a good thing. It means that supply exceeds demand which allows buyers (and renters) the strength to say no to dilapidated or bad homes, or expensive homes, and get good quality affordable ones instead.
How is that remotely a bad thing? Unless you are looking for a guaranteed income to sweat your asset and live off someone else's rent and you don't think they should have a right to say "not interested in paying you rent thank you".
Not to forget of course location, location, location. Tokyo has seen it's population rise significantly while other locations have seen population falls. Empty homes in locations people have no desire to live in don't help Tokyo's housing market.
Essentially, it’s a WW1 like stalemate. The Russians have got their act together - and of course it is easier to defend than attack. It’s literal trench warfare, a conflict of attrition - and Russia has more to attrit than Ukraine, tho Ukraine has more motivation to fight than Russia
I’ve spent the day marvelling at the bravery and endurance of the Ukrainians, but I fear they may have to accept an ugly armistice which divides Ukraine roughly where it is divided now. They can’t afford to kill all their young men, and that is the logical endpoint
If someone can show me an alternative and superior outcome for Ukraine that would be uplifting. I can’t see it
Some division always seemed likely. It is a question of backing their resistance so they dont feel pushed into that, which was the plan of Stop the West and fellow travellers. Hopefully they can push back closer to the 2014 lines at least.
I doubt they will get that. The counter offensive is failing. Russia has successfully dug in
Ukraine simply does not have the manpower to win a war of attrition like this. The alternative is the west provides them with huge super weapons. A seriously capable new air force. That’s not gonna happen
A Korean style armistice beckons
I'm not sure that's a great analogy.
This is an invasion. A large part of Ukraine is occupied with Russian troops.
Remember:: the invasion is usually the easy bit. Then there's the what next?
Because occupying countries is fucking tough: look at Afghanistan or Northern Ireland. It means that Russia is constantly sending money and young men out west, and for what?
Russia is Russifying the occupied territories very fast. Replacing Ukrainians with apparently loyal Russians or “new Russians”
That’s the plan
Of course in the long term this is disastrous for Russia as it will face an incredibly hostile Ukraine for generations. And a fifth column of Ukrainians inside Russia who could do anything
I reckon this ultimately ends with Putin being toppled because of this catastrophic error
However in the medium term, militarily, I don’t see how either side can win. And that means some sort of ceasefire, inevitably. It won’t be peace. It will be an armistice, a sort of truce: until next time
It took Ukraine three months to push the Russians out of Kherson.
Russia’s in a similar position to Germany after Kursk. The initiative has been lost, and they can only react to attacks. And they face an insurgency.
That’s a fairly absurd analogy. The USSR had almost limitless men, and by 1943 huge supplies from the USA and UK. Nazi Germany was also fighting on at least two other fronts - with the Royal Navy and US navy confronting it at sea, and the RAF and USAF bombing Germany itself to cinders
Ukraine is not the USSR of 1943; Russia is not the Third Reich in inevitable retreat in 1943
Korea is the better comparison
Just repeating something, doesn't make it so.
Russia is under enormous strain right now. They are begging their allies for any weapons they can, and who is stepping up? Hardly anyone.
By contrast, Ukraine gets better equipped by the day.
Don't forget, Russia's big advantage was artillery. But barrels don't last forever. Every time you fire there's a thermal expansion, contractions cycle, and that means they are running through their artillery pieces at a rate, even as the West continues to ship new (better) kit to Ukraine.
As Big G’s granddaughter’s cohort would say “this is so,like, Russia’s Afghanistan.”
Ukraine's glory and freedom will have not yet perished, Still upon us, young brothers, fate shall smile. Our enemies shall vanish, like dew in the sun. We too shall rule, brothers, in our country.
But how does it sound when sung in the open, @Leon?
I’m ruing the fall that knocked out 4 of my ribs and forced me to cancel next week’s summer holiday to Georgia. It would have been a good opportunity to take the temperature on the ground in another of the post Soviet states that’s in danger of gradual annexation.
I’ll be there in October instead. It seems a chunk of the population want to get on with Russia and the rest detest them with a vengeance. But one momentary trip on the stairs 2 weeks ago has put paid to finding out until Autumn.
I agree with Casino on test matches and rain. Play until 5 days of full play have been possible, or until one side wins. Bloody frustrating today.
Ok so links below for one of the hotter election days I've followed (Canada Jan 2006 probably the coldest), lots of fans being waved and water bottles in the polling stations.
Polls close on the mainland at 7pm BST and results should be released from 8pm BST once the Canary Islands have finished voting.
Votes will be counted at polling stations (as in most countries) and with Spain being one of the fastest-counting larger countries, the whole country should be pretty much counted quicker than it took Uxbridge to get to recount stage on Thursday night.
Spain has a closed-list PR system using d'Hondt, with a 3% threshold, but the 50 provinces are the constituencies, so in the smaller ones that elect 3 or 4 MPs, the key will be who wins the 3rd and 4th seats, as only in the larger provinces such as Madrid or Barcelona are the results more proportional.
For tonight, my gut feeling is that PP + Vox will just get over the 176-seat majority line and Feijoo to be next PM, with PP finishing a few points ahead of the PSOE, and the leftwing grouping Sumar finishing in fourth. However it could be close, and if neither PP/Vox or PSOE/Sumar have a majority, it will depend on how the various nationalist/regionalist parties go with their support for a government. If PP+Vox is a majority, will it be confidence and supply, or a full coalition?
Finally, Thursday night was a lot of fun, an interesting set of results, really enjoyed the updates and banter, and thanks again to HYUFD for his Uxbridge insight which translated into a winning bet for me.
Muchas gracias,
Alfombra Doble
Useful as ever, @DoubleCarpet . Nice to see you back. Do you have a bet on the outcome?
Essentially, it’s a WW1 like stalemate. The Russians have got their act together - and of course it is easier to defend than attack. It’s literal trench warfare, a conflict of attrition - and Russia has more to attrit than Ukraine, tho Ukraine has more motivation to fight than Russia
I’ve spent the day marvelling at the bravery and endurance of the Ukrainians, but I fear they may have to accept an ugly armistice which divides Ukraine roughly where it is divided now. They can’t afford to kill all their young men, and that is the logical endpoint
If someone can show me an alternative and superior outcome for Ukraine that would be uplifting. I can’t see it
Some division always seemed likely. It is a question of backing their resistance so they dont feel pushed into that, which was the plan of Stop the West and fellow travellers. Hopefully they can push back closer to the 2014 lines at least.
I doubt they will get that. The counter offensive is failing. Russia has successfully dug in
Ukraine simply does not have the manpower to win a war of attrition like this. The alternative is the west provides them with huge super weapons. A seriously capable new air force. That’s not gonna happen
A Korean style armistice beckons
I'm not sure that's a great analogy.
This is an invasion. A large part of Ukraine is occupied with Russian troops.
Remember:: the invasion is usually the easy bit. Then there's the what next?
Because occupying countries is fucking tough: look at Afghanistan or Northern Ireland. It means that Russia is constantly sending money and young men out west, and for what?
Russia is Russifying the occupied territories very fast. Replacing Ukrainians with apparently loyal Russians or “new Russians”
That’s the plan
Of course in the long term this is disastrous for Russia as it will face an incredibly hostile Ukraine for generations. And a fifth column of Ukrainians inside Russia who could do anything
I reckon this ultimately ends with Putin being toppled because of this catastrophic error
However in the medium term, militarily, I don’t see how either side can win. And that means some sort of ceasefire, inevitably. It won’t be peace. It will be an armistice, a sort of truce: until next time
It took Ukraine three months to push the Russians out of Kherson.
Russia’s in a similar position to Germany after Kursk. The initiative has been lost, and they can only react to attacks. And they face an insurgency.
That’s a fairly absurd analogy. The USSR had almost limitless men, and by 1943 huge supplies from the USA and UK. Nazi Germany was also fighting on at least two other fronts - with the Royal Navy and US navy confronting it at sea, and the RAF and USAF bombing Germany itself to cinders
Ukraine is not the USSR of 1943; Russia is not the Third Reich in inevitable retreat in 1943
Korea is the better comparison
Just repeating something, doesn't make it so.
Russia is under enormous strain right now. They are begging their allies for any weapons they can, and who is stepping up? Hardly anyone.
By contrast, Ukraine gets better equipped by the day.
Don't forget, Russia's big advantage was artillery. But barrels don't last forever. Every time you fire there's a thermal expansion, contractions cycle, and that means they are running through their artillery pieces at a rate, even as the West continues to ship new (better) kit to Ukraine.
As Big G’s granddaughter’s cohort would say “this is so,like, Russia’s Afghanistan.”
Quality control is a big issue with shells and the gun barrels. The steel, the machining and the heat treatment cycles. It’s long been the cutting edge (ha) technology - a lot of the Industrial Revolution was driven by gun and shell forging. Some of the first big powered machines were for gun boring.
@Miklosvar has a point on Rhodes. This does not sound “normal”
“Greece mounted its largest-ever island evacuation this weekend, moving close to 19,000 people on Rhodes to escape wildfires that have prompted some tour operators to cancel flights to the popular destination.”
Which is why we need policies that aren’t regressive taxation. Note that the climate change levy on energy bills isn’t a problem because it is *equal*. Well, kinda. The rich have the best insulated homes, of course.
Green New Deal funded by Wealth Tax then. Done.
You seem to think only the rich will pay a wealth tax. Clue they wont
Renters will have the wealth tax added to their rent People who have paid off 10% of a 400,000 pound house will be paying wealth tax on the full 400k noth the 40k they actually own. Poor pensioners that live on nothing more than a state pension but in the 40 years since they paid off their house that has now increased to an incredible price will suddenly find the wealth tax eating half their pension, fuel prices stealing the other half and food inflation swallowing another 20%
The rich will find ways around the wealth tax
Well we were looking at non-regressive ways to fund important things like saving the planet. What taxes would you rather use?
There is no such thing as a progressive tax frankly, your side have introduced so called progressive taxation measures, so have the tories. Always seems to hit the poor harder than the rich.
We don't need to save the planet either. Whatever happens the planet will still be here even if there are no humans. What you mean is save humans. Sorry too late it ain't going to happen. Rich countries in the west will find mitigation measures poor countries will be left to hang. There is nothing that can be done unless we get a global dictatorship that bans all private transportation, all meat etc. That won't happen so accept it.
I’m ruing the fall that knocked out 4 of my ribs and forced me to cancel next week’s summer holiday to Georgia. It would have been a good opportunity to take the temperature on the ground in another of the post Soviet states that’s in danger of gradual annexation.
I’ll be there in October instead. It seems a chunk of the population want to get on with Russia and the rest detest them with a vengeance. But one momentary trip on the stairs 2 weeks ago has put paid to finding out until Autumn.
I agree with Casino on test matches and rain. Play until 5 days of full play have been possible, or until one side wins. Bloody frustrating today.
Re cricket it’s short termism by tv companies. They want a nice, tightly packaged product where they can schedule highlights shows, block off days so demand finishing times as part of the contract. Then they will cry when nobody watches their “product” when there is no result due to weather. The restrictions on daily finishing times are currently very dependent on tv contracts.
They should have the flex to push forward each day to 9am starts or late finishes based on weather forecasts but because Hugo in commissioning doesn’t give an F about cricket so never watches he doesn’t get the intricacies.
MPs jumping on NIMBY bandwagons is just a symptom of course. They have no ability to impact a decision, and opposers will be much louder, so it almost always makes sense for them to come out against - if it gets approved they can always blame the local council or an inspector. Being in favour has equally no impact on the decision, and pleases fewer people.
MPs do have the ability to affect things, they set the f***ing law.
MPs could and should strip NIMBYs of the right to interfere or have any say at all in what other people do with their own land. As has already been done by MPs in Japan to great success.
We need Parliament to change the law. Only MPs can do that.
Japan has much tougher immigration laws than we do, it is extremely difficult to get permanent residence in Japan. Combined with their low birthrate they thus need less new housing
Empty homes aren't a problem they're a good thing. It means that supply exceeds demand which allows buyers (and renters) the strength to say no to dilapidated or bad homes, or expensive homes, and get good quality affordable ones instead.
How is that remotely a bad thing? Unless you are looking for a guaranteed income to sweat your asset and live off someone else's rent and you don't think they should have a right to say "not interested in paying you rent thank you".
Not to forget of course location, location, location. Tokyo has seen it's population rise significantly while other locations have seen population falls. Empty homes in locations people have no desire to live in don't help Tokyo's housing market.
The interesting added extra in Japan is earthquake resilience. If that report is correct a lot of the vacant houses aren't any great shakes in that respect, so to speak, being distinctly sub par [edit] by modern standards. I can't imagine it is a very cheap or easy retrofit, either. But IANAE.
Christie surging there as is Scott. Trump down even more than DeSantis
I think Christie could be the dark horse in this race, if the Trump and DeSantis campaigns manage to eat each other.
Christie is attacking Trump and DeSantis on the issues and what they have done. He's not getting involved in culture wars "Parents should be making these decisions". It's helping his figures, so he could end up as the major Republican challenger to Trump, where he loses 2:1.
This is a sobering report about climate change action or inaction and especially the last paragraph (The whole article is in the Guardian)
G20 countries fail to reach agreement on cutting fossil fuels
Fossil fuel-producing members dispute goal of tripling renewable capacity by 2030
The G20 bloc of wealthy economies meeting in India failed to reach a consensus on phasing down fossil fuels on Saturday after objections by some producer nations.
Scientists and campaigners are exasperated by international bodies’ foot-dragging on action to curb global heating even as extreme weather across the northern hemisphere underlined the climate crisis facing the world.
The G20 member countries together account for more than three-quarters of global emissions and gross domestic product, so a cumulative effort by the group to decarbonise is crucial in the global fight against climate breakdown.
However, disagreements including the intended tripling of renewable energy capacities by 2030 resulted in officials issuing an outcome statement and a chair summary instead of a joint communique at the end of their four-day meeting in Panaji, the capital of the Indian coastal state of Goa.
Fossil fuel use became a lightning rod in daylong discussions, but officials failed to reach consensus over curbing “unabated” use and argued over the language to describe the pathway to cut emissions, two sources familiar with the matter said. However, the chair statement released on Saturday evening included concerns from some member nations that were missing in the Friday draft, saying “others had different views on the matter that abatement and removal technologies will address such concerns”.
Singh, in a press briefing after the conference, said some countries wanted to use carbon capture instead of a phase-down of fossil fuels. He did not name the countries.
Saudi Arabia, Russia, China, South Africa and Indonesia are all known to oppose the goal of tripling renewable energy capacity this decade.
@Miklosvar has a point on Rhodes. This does not sound “normal”
“Greece mounted its largest-ever island evacuation this weekend, moving close to 19,000 people on Rhodes to escape wildfires that have prompted some tour operators to cancel flights to the popular destination.”
Which is why we need policies that aren’t regressive taxation. Note that the climate change levy on energy bills isn’t a problem because it is *equal*. Well, kinda. The rich have the best insulated homes, of course.
Green New Deal funded by Wealth Tax then. Done.
You seem to think only the rich will pay a wealth tax. Clue they wont
Renters will have the wealth tax added to their rent People who have paid off 10% of a 400,000 pound house will be paying wealth tax on the full 400k noth the 40k they actually own. Poor pensioners that live on nothing more than a state pension but in the 40 years since they paid off their house that has now increased to an incredible price will suddenly find the wealth tax eating half their pension, fuel prices stealing the other half and food inflation swallowing another 20%
The rich will find ways around the wealth tax
Well we were looking at non-regressive ways to fund important things like saving the planet. What taxes would you rather use?
“Wealth taxes” will end up trying to tax people’s houses. Since this is based on an artificial shortage of houses, this will fuck up things more, rather than less. And probably not raise much money - unless you want to try the politics of forcing people to sell to richer people.
There aren’t that many mega properties in the U.K. - any tax on property that raises the kind of money that makes a difference will include suburban semis.
They’re singing the national anthem. There is music EVERYWHERE
I'm near Nessebar in Bulgaria, currently staying in a villa with a pool with a wide view over the Black Sea. I'm about 2 miles back in the hills overlooking it.
You couldn't move for Ukrainians in the local Aldi this morning - place was rammed. This is where many of the wealthy ones with means have escaped to.
What, to the extent you can tell, is attitude of Bulgarians, in the war in general, and specifically re: the Ukrainians now among them?
Agnostic, plenty are sympathetic to the Russians and suspicious of the USA, particularly the older one.
Remember: many Bulgarians believe the Russians to be "brothers" who helped liberate their country from Ottoman rule in the late 19th Century, whilst the West has never had much time for them - and bombed Sofia during the war - so they view things a little differently.
However, there is no hostility at all towards Ukrainians. They just shrug it all off a bit, I think.
Essentially, it’s a WW1 like stalemate. The Russians have got their act together - and of course it is easier to defend than attack. It’s literal trench warfare, a conflict of attrition - and Russia has more to attrit than Ukraine, tho Ukraine has more motivation to fight than Russia
I’ve spent the day marvelling at the bravery and endurance of the Ukrainians, but I fear they may have to accept an ugly armistice which divides Ukraine roughly where it is divided now. They can’t afford to kill all their young men, and that is the logical endpoint
If someone can show me an alternative and superior outcome for Ukraine that would be uplifting. I can’t see it
Some division always seemed likely. It is a question of backing their resistance so they dont feel pushed into that, which was the plan of Stop the West and fellow travellers. Hopefully they can push back closer to the 2014 lines at least.
I doubt they will get that. The counter offensive is failing. Russia has successfully dug in
Ukraine simply does not have the manpower to win a war of attrition like this. The alternative is the west provides them with huge super weapons. A seriously capable new air force. That’s not gonna happen
A Korean style armistice beckons
I'm not sure that's a great analogy.
This is an invasion. A large part of Ukraine is occupied with Russian troops.
Remember:: the invasion is usually the easy bit. Then there's the what next?
Because occupying countries is fucking tough: look at Afghanistan or Northern Ireland. It means that Russia is constantly sending money and young men out west, and for what?
Russia is Russifying the occupied territories very fast. Replacing Ukrainians with apparently loyal Russians or “new Russians”
That’s the plan
Of course in the long term this is disastrous for Russia as it will face an incredibly hostile Ukraine for generations. And a fifth column of Ukrainians inside Russia who could do anything
I reckon this ultimately ends with Putin being toppled because of this catastrophic error
However in the medium term, militarily, I don’t see how either side can win. And that means some sort of ceasefire, inevitably. It won’t be peace. It will be an armistice, a sort of truce: until next time
It took Ukraine three months to push the Russians out of Kherson.
Russia’s in a similar position to Germany after Kursk. The initiative has been lost, and they can only react to attacks. And they face an insurgency.
That’s a fairly absurd analogy. The USSR had almost limitless men, and by 1943 huge supplies from the USA and UK. Nazi Germany was also fighting on at least two other fronts - with the Royal Navy and US navy confronting it at sea, and the RAF and USAF bombing Germany itself to cinders
Ukraine is not the USSR of 1943; Russia is not the Third Reich in inevitable retreat in 1943
Korea is the better comparison
Just repeating something, doesn't make it so.
Russia is under enormous strain right now. They are begging their allies for any weapons they can, and who is stepping up? Hardly anyone.
By contrast, Ukraine gets better equipped by the day.
Don't forget, Russia's big advantage was artillery. But barrels don't last forever. Every time you fire there's a thermal expansion, contractions cycle, and that means they are running through their artillery pieces at a rate, even as the West continues to ship new (better) kit to Ukraine.
As Big G’s granddaughter’s cohort would say “this is so,like, Russia’s Afghanistan.”
I though that Afghanistan was Russia's Afghanistan! Well OK the Soviet Union's Afghanistan.
I’m ruing the fall that knocked out 4 of my ribs and forced me to cancel next week’s summer holiday to Georgia. It would have been a good opportunity to take the temperature on the ground in another of the post Soviet states that’s in danger of gradual annexation.
I’ll be there in October instead. It seems a chunk of the population want to get on with Russia and the rest detest them with a vengeance. But one momentary trip on the stairs 2 weeks ago has put paid to finding out until Autumn.
I agree with Casino on test matches and rain. Play until 5 days of full play have been possible, or until one side wins. Bloody frustrating today.
Re cricket it’s short termism by tv companies. They want a nice, tightly packaged product where they can schedule highlights shows, block off days so demand finishing times as part of the contract. Then they will cry when nobody watches their “product” when there is no result due to weather. The restrictions on daily finishing times are currently very dependent on tv contracts.
They should have the flex to push forward each day to 9am starts or late finishes based on weather forecasts but because Hugo in commissioning doesn’t give an F about cricket so never watches he doesn’t get the intricacies.
Interestingly when I lived in Australia, if there was time lost (eg from a previous day) then they would start the next day half an hour earlier. It's not all the way to 9am but it is something. And broadcast schedules have always started by 30 minutes earlier anyway.
I've never understood why in England finishing later (which is often denied by bad light anyway) is the only implemented solution rather than locking in an earlier start where you know light will be good.
MPs jumping on NIMBY bandwagons is just a symptom of course. They have no ability to impact a decision, and opposers will be much louder, so it almost always makes sense for them to come out against - if it gets approved they can always blame the local council or an inspector. Being in favour has equally no impact on the decision, and pleases fewer people.
MPs do have the ability to affect things, they set the f***ing law.
MPs could and should strip NIMBYs of the right to interfere or have any say at all in what other people do with their own land. As has already been done by MPs in Japan to great success.
We need Parliament to change the law. Only MPs can do that.
Japan has much tougher immigration laws than we do, it is extremely difficult to get permanent residence in Japan. Combined with their low birthrate they thus need less new housing
Empty homes aren't a problem they're a good thing. It means that supply exceeds demand which allows buyers (and renters) the strength to say no to dilapidated or bad homes, or expensive homes, and get good quality affordable ones instead.
How is that remotely a bad thing? Unless you are looking for a guaranteed income to sweat your asset and live off someone else's rent and you don't think they should have a right to say "not interested in paying you rent thank you".
Not to forget of course location, location, location. Tokyo has seen it's population rise significantly while other locations have seen population falls. Empty homes in locations people have no desire to live in don't help Tokyo's housing market.
The interesting added extra in Japan is earthquake resilience. If that report is correct a lot of the vacant houses aren't any great shakes in that respect, so to speak, being distinctly sub par [edit] by modern standards. I can't imagine it is a very cheap or easy retrofit, either. But IANAE.
IIRC most of them are being bought by young couples leaving the city, with the existing house knocked down and rebuilt.
Re the voting data for the GE in Spain. The figures do not include the postal votes which will be higher this time as the election is taking place in the middle of the main Spanish holiday season. It may be notable however that currently Catalonia is ove 8 points lower than last time. Possibly worse news for the left than the right as PP/VOX get far fewer votes in the Communidad.
When will we start to get results, are they counting overnight?
Exit poll at 8pm when the polls close. Counting is very quick as it's the D'Hondt method. As it could be very close it may be a while before we know which Coalition, if any, is viable, but the broad picture is likely to be apparent within a couple of hours.
So what is/are "bellweather" area(s) for Spanish GEs, if there are any?
Large Communities and some cities but there aren't constituencies in the UK sense. The biggest in Andalucia which PP took 2/3 years ago on an unprecedented landslide. Without a big recovery there Sanchez will struggle to be largets party. Then we have Catalunia and Madrid both big the former with a significant nationalist vote althjough their turnout figures look very low today. Finally, Galicia - Feijjo's great PP stronghold. However, the polls have been somewhat unclear, and it's not clear who will end up winning overall.
My understanding is that Aragon has been described as "the Ohio of Spain"?
We know vaguely where it is, but can't name anywhere that's there, you mean?
@Miklosvar has a point on Rhodes. This does not sound “normal”
“Greece mounted its largest-ever island evacuation this weekend, moving close to 19,000 people on Rhodes to escape wildfires that have prompted some tour operators to cancel flights to the popular destination.”
Which is why we need policies that aren’t regressive taxation. Note that the climate change levy on energy bills isn’t a problem because it is *equal*. Well, kinda. The rich have the best insulated homes, of course.
Green New Deal funded by Wealth Tax then. Done.
You seem to think only the rich will pay a wealth tax. Clue they wont
Renters will have the wealth tax added to their rent People who have paid off 10% of a 400,000 pound house will be paying wealth tax on the full 400k noth the 40k they actually own. Poor pensioners that live on nothing more than a state pension but in the 40 years since they paid off their house that has now increased to an incredible price will suddenly find the wealth tax eating half their pension, fuel prices stealing the other half and food inflation swallowing another 20%
The rich will find ways around the wealth tax
Well we were looking at non-regressive ways to fund important things like saving the planet. What taxes would you rather use?
“Wealth taxes” will end up trying to tax people’s houses. Since this is based on an artificial shortage of houses, this will fuck up things more, rather than less. And probably not raise much money - unless you want to try the politics of forcing people to sell to richer people.
There aren’t that many mega properties in the U.K. - any tax on property that raises the kind of money that makes a difference will include suburban semis.
Even worse is that, as with escalating stamp duty rates, it incentivises the Treasury to want to keep house prices high.
I’m ruing the fall that knocked out 4 of my ribs and forced me to cancel next week’s summer holiday to Georgia. It would have been a good opportunity to take the temperature on the ground in another of the post Soviet states that’s in danger of gradual annexation.
I’ll be there in October instead. It seems a chunk of the population want to get on with Russia and the rest detest them with a vengeance. But one momentary trip on the stairs 2 weeks ago has put paid to finding out until Autumn.
I agree with Casino on test matches and rain. Play until 5 days of full play have been possible, or until one side wins. Bloody frustrating today.
Re cricket it’s short termism by tv companies. They want a nice, tightly packaged product where they can schedule highlights shows, block off days so demand finishing times as part of the contract. Then they will cry when nobody watches their “product” when there is no result due to weather. The restrictions on daily finishing times are currently very dependent on tv contracts.
They should have the flex to push forward each day to 9am starts or late finishes based on weather forecasts but because Hugo in commissioning doesn’t give an F about cricket so never watches he doesn’t get the intricacies.
Interestingly when I lived in Australia, if there was time lost (eg from a previous day) then they would start the next day half an hour earlier. It's not all the way to 9am but it is something. And broadcast schedules have always started by 30 minutes earlier anyway.
I've never understood why in England finishing later (which is often denied by bad light anyway) is the only implemented solution rather than locking in an earlier start where you know light will be good.
They can also get rid of tea if time lost before - just get them those protein bars run on at drinks breaks if necessary.
MPs jumping on NIMBY bandwagons is just a symptom of course. They have no ability to impact a decision, and opposers will be much louder, so it almost always makes sense for them to come out against - if it gets approved they can always blame the local council or an inspector. Being in favour has equally no impact on the decision, and pleases fewer people.
MPs do have the ability to affect things, they set the f***ing law.
MPs could and should strip NIMBYs of the right to interfere or have any say at all in what other people do with their own land. As has already been done by MPs in Japan to great success.
We need Parliament to change the law. Only MPs can do that.
Japan has much tougher immigration laws than we do, it is extremely difficult to get permanent residence in Japan. Combined with their low birthrate they thus need less new housing
Empty homes aren't a problem they're a good thing. It means that supply exceeds demand which allows buyers (and renters) the strength to say no to dilapidated or bad homes, or expensive homes, and get good quality affordable ones instead.
How is that remotely a bad thing? Unless you are looking for a guaranteed income to sweat your asset and live off someone else's rent and you don't think they should have a right to say "not interested in paying you rent thank you".
Not to forget of course location, location, location. Tokyo has seen it's population rise significantly while other locations have seen population falls. Empty homes in locations people have no desire to live in don't help Tokyo's housing market.
The interesting added extra in Japan is earthquake resilience. If that report is correct a lot of the vacant houses aren't any great shakes in that respect, so to speak, being distinctly sub par [edit] by modern standards. I can't imagine it is a very cheap or easy retrofit, either. But IANAE.
Indeed that's the equivalent of dilapidated that I mentioned. Substandard homes don't have people living in them, as people can choose non-substandard homes to live in instead.
I’m ruing the fall that knocked out 4 of my ribs and forced me to cancel next week’s summer holiday to Georgia. It would have been a good opportunity to take the temperature on the ground in another of the post Soviet states that’s in danger of gradual annexation.
I’ll be there in October instead. It seems a chunk of the population want to get on with Russia and the rest detest them with a vengeance. But one momentary trip on the stairs 2 weeks ago has put paid to finding out until Autumn.
I agree with Casino on test matches and rain. Play until 5 days of full play have been possible, or until one side wins. Bloody frustrating today.
Re cricket it’s short termism by tv companies. They want a nice, tightly packaged product where they can schedule highlights shows, block off days so demand finishing times as part of the contract. Then they will cry when nobody watches their “product” when there is no result due to weather. The restrictions on daily finishing times are currently very dependent on tv contracts.
They should have the flex to push forward each day to 9am starts or late finishes based on weather forecasts but because Hugo in commissioning doesn’t give an F about cricket so never watches he doesn’t get the intricacies.
Interestingly when I lived in Australia, if there was time lost (eg from a previous day) then they would start the next day half an hour earlier. It's not all the way to 9am but it is something. And broadcast schedules have always started by 30 minutes earlier anyway.
I've never understood why in England finishing later (which is often denied by bad light anyway) is the only implemented solution rather than locking in an earlier start where you know light will be good.
With the forecast as it was, the least they could have done was insist on 90 or even 98 overs for the first couple of days.
If anyone wants to get an understanding of where the US Republican primaries start next January, the Indycar race from Iowa is just about to start.
They’ve just had prayers, the national anthem, and the flypast, and they’ll be starting their engines shortly. British singer Ed Sheeran will will wave the green flag, and play the concert afterwards.
I’m ruing the fall that knocked out 4 of my ribs and forced me to cancel next week’s summer holiday to Georgia. It would have been a good opportunity to take the temperature on the ground in another of the post Soviet states that’s in danger of gradual annexation.
I’ll be there in October instead. It seems a chunk of the population want to get on with Russia and the rest detest them with a vengeance. But one momentary trip on the stairs 2 weeks ago has put paid to finding out until Autumn.
I agree with Casino on test matches and rain. Play until 5 days of full play have been possible, or until one side wins. Bloody frustrating today.
Re cricket it’s short termism by tv companies. They want a nice, tightly packaged product where they can schedule highlights shows, block off days so demand finishing times as part of the contract. Then they will cry when nobody watches their “product” when there is no result due to weather. The restrictions on daily finishing times are currently very dependent on tv contracts.
They should have the flex to push forward each day to 9am starts or late finishes based on weather forecasts but because Hugo in commissioning doesn’t give an F about cricket so never watches he doesn’t get the intricacies.
Interestingly when I lived in Australia, if there was time lost (eg from a previous day) then they would start the next day half an hour earlier. It's not all the way to 9am but it is something. And broadcast schedules have always started by 30 minutes earlier anyway.
I've never understood why in England finishing later (which is often denied by bad light anyway) is the only implemented solution rather than locking in an earlier start where you know light will be good.
With the forecast as it was, the least they could have done was insist on 90 or even 98 overs for the first couple of days.
They have an opportunity to fix it with the Oval test as the forecast isn’t great so if they want test cricket to survive then they have a few days to come up with a solution.
Andy, you do know that trans people existed before 1995, yes? Also that David Bowie famously "dated" a trans woman in his 1970s Berlin days?
I know PB has no memory, but still this place is sometimes so ahistorical it's weird. I keep thinking I have to remind people that James Callaghan existed and was Prime Minister. MoonRabbit's view of unions is so warped it's scary
PB has the memory of the people it contains. Which always looks weird from a different timescale. For some, a decade ago is before they were interested in the world around them…
A simple example -
When I told people of a time when carpets were fitted (at relatively high expense) by a number of British workmen, it was met with incredulity. And that was 1998. Globalisation has collapsed costs and wages.
But to many here, a new carpet for a flat has always been a few hundred quid and fitted by a lone Bosnian* guy in a tearing hurry to get to his next job.
*Recent job I had done. He drank double espressos as fast I could make them. By the end of the job he was The Flash.
I believe you. Things change and nobody ever seems to remember things were different. I'm reading thru "Duty of Care" by David Hennessey ( I got depressed after reading Goodwin's VV&V book and thought I'd cheer myself up), and the first half was devoted to the 45to79 Butskellian consensus, when the Government thought it had a duty to do things FOR the British people instead of TO them. It's a whole different world.
I’m ruing the fall that knocked out 4 of my ribs and forced me to cancel next week’s summer holiday to Georgia. It would have been a good opportunity to take the temperature on the ground in another of the post Soviet states that’s in danger of gradual annexation.
I’ll be there in October instead. It seems a chunk of the population want to get on with Russia and the rest detest them with a vengeance. But one momentary trip on the stairs 2 weeks ago has put paid to finding out until Autumn.
I agree with Casino on test matches and rain. Play until 5 days of full play have been possible, or until one side wins. Bloody frustrating today.
Re cricket it’s short termism by tv companies. They want a nice, tightly packaged product where they can schedule highlights shows, block off days so demand finishing times as part of the contract. Then they will cry when nobody watches their “product” when there is no result due to weather. The restrictions on daily finishing times are currently very dependent on tv contracts.
They should have the flex to push forward each day to 9am starts or late finishes based on weather forecasts but because Hugo in commissioning doesn’t give an F about cricket so never watches he doesn’t get the intricacies.
Interestingly when I lived in Australia, if there was time lost (eg from a previous day) then they would start the next day half an hour earlier. It's not all the way to 9am but it is something. And broadcast schedules have always started by 30 minutes earlier anyway.
I've never understood why in England finishing later (which is often denied by bad light anyway) is the only implemented solution rather than locking in an earlier start where you know light will be good.
With the forecast as it was, the least they could have done was insist on 90 or even 98 overs for the first couple of days.
The way teams bowl thesedays 98 overs would probably see them going until 9pm.
If anyone wants to get an understanding of where the US Republican primaries start next January, the Indycar race from Iowa is just about to start.
They’ve just had prayers, the national anthem, and the flypast, and they’ll be starting their engines shortly. British singer Ed Sheeran will will wave the green flag, and play the concert afterwards.
Pedant alert.
Isn't New Hampshire traditionally the first "primary"?
I’m ruing the fall that knocked out 4 of my ribs and forced me to cancel next week’s summer holiday to Georgia. It would have been a good opportunity to take the temperature on the ground in another of the post Soviet states that’s in danger of gradual annexation.
I’ll be there in October instead. It seems a chunk of the population want to get on with Russia and the rest detest them with a vengeance. But one momentary trip on the stairs 2 weeks ago has put paid to finding out until Autumn.
I agree with Casino on test matches and rain. Play until 5 days of full play have been possible, or until one side wins. Bloody frustrating today.
Re cricket it’s short termism by tv companies. They want a nice, tightly packaged product where they can schedule highlights shows, block off days so demand finishing times as part of the contract. Then they will cry when nobody watches their “product” when there is no result due to weather. The restrictions on daily finishing times are currently very dependent on tv contracts.
They should have the flex to push forward each day to 9am starts or late finishes based on weather forecasts but because Hugo in commissioning doesn’t give an F about cricket so never watches he doesn’t get the intricacies.
Interestingly when I lived in Australia, if there was time lost (eg from a previous day) then they would start the next day half an hour earlier. It's not all the way to 9am but it is something. And broadcast schedules have always started by 30 minutes earlier anyway.
I've never understood why in England finishing later (which is often denied by bad light anyway) is the only implemented solution rather than locking in an earlier start where you know light will be good.
Or they could just play 10 overs a side - apparently that's what everyone really wants according to the blazered ones
If anyone wants to get an understanding of where the US Republican primaries start next January, the Indycar race from Iowa is just about to start.
They’ve just had prayers, the national anthem, and the flypast, and they’ll be starting their engines shortly. British singer Ed Sheeran will will wave the green flag, and play the concert afterwards.
Pedant alert.
Isn't New Hampshire traditionally the first "primary"?
They’re singing the national anthem. There is music EVERYWHERE
I'm near Nessebar in Bulgaria, currently staying in a villa with a pool with a wide view over the Black Sea. I'm about 2 miles back in the hills overlooking it.
You couldn't move for Ukrainians in the local Aldi this morning - place was rammed. This is where many of the wealthy ones with means have escaped to.
What, to the extent you can tell, is attitude of Bulgarians, in the war in general, and specifically re: the Ukrainians now among them?
Agnostic, plenty are sympathetic to the Russians and suspicious of the USA, particularly the older one.
Remember: many Bulgarians believe the Russians to be "brothers" who helped liberate their country from Ottoman rule in the late 19th Century, whilst the West has never had much time for them - and bombed Sofia during the war - so they view things a little differently.
However, there is no hostility at all towards Ukrainians. They just shrug it all off a bit, I think.
Bulgaria was only German ally in Europe, that did NOT declare war on USSR.
A favor that Soviets in turn returned . . . until September 1944 . . .
Ok so links below for one of the hotter election days I've followed (Canada Jan 2006 probably the coldest), lots of fans being waved and water bottles in the polling stations.
Polls close on the mainland at 7pm BST and results should be released from 8pm BST once the Canary Islands have finished voting.
Votes will be counted at polling stations (as in most countries) and with Spain being one of the fastest-counting larger countries, the whole country should be pretty much counted quicker than it took Uxbridge to get to recount stage on Thursday night.
Spain has a closed-list PR system using d'Hondt, with a 3% threshold, but the 50 provinces are the constituencies, so in the smaller ones that elect 3 or 4 MPs, the key will be who wins the 3rd and 4th seats, as only in the larger provinces such as Madrid or Barcelona are the results more proportional.
For tonight, my gut feeling is that PP + Vox will just get over the 176-seat majority line and Feijoo to be next PM, with PP finishing a few points ahead of the PSOE, and the leftwing grouping Sumar finishing in fourth. However it could be close, and if neither PP/Vox or PSOE/Sumar have a majority, it will depend on how the various nationalist/regionalist parties go with their support for a government. If PP+Vox is a majority, will it be confidence and supply, or a full coalition?
Finally, Thursday night was a lot of fun, an interesting set of results, really enjoyed the updates and banter, and thanks again to HYUFD for his Uxbridge insight which translated into a winning bet for me.
Muchas gracias,
Alfombra Doble
Thanks DC. Always rely on you turning up on election day, wherever it is.
If anyone wants to get an understanding of where the US Republican primaries start next January, the Indycar race from Iowa is just about to start.
They’ve just had prayers, the national anthem, and the flypast, and they’ll be starting their engines shortly. British singer Ed Sheeran will will wave the green flag, and play the concert afterwards.
Pedant alert.
Isn't New Hampshire traditionally the first "primary"?
Comments
Russia’s in a similar position to Germany after Kursk. The initiative has been lost, and they can only react to attacks. And they face an insurgency.
Ukraine is not the USSR of 1943; Russia is not the Third Reich in inevitable retreat in 1943
Korea is the better comparison
Will be posting links within the hour.
Who back in the day (exactly which day depending on whose censuses you believe) comprised majority, or at least plurality, of the city's population. In contrast to most of it's hinterland, which was (mostly) predominately Ukrainian (or close enough).
Perhaps THE biggest factor in 20th-century Polish-Ukrainian conflict.
For example
Ukraine has largely converted to western 155mm tube artillery. While there are some issue with supply of ammo, more and more capacity is coming on line. Barrels need to be replaced frequently - they are getting replacements from around the world.
Russia is relying on stocks of 152mm - production is low and not increasing due to sanctions hitting. Barrel replacement is problematic - so you are seeing some vehicles being cannibalised for the barrels. And their equipment parks are stripped out already, of reserve self propelled artillery and towed. The older tanks being brought up are being used as ersatz self propelled artillery.
In some areas of the front, Ukraine is believed, by observers, to have more artillery capability than the Russians now.
Note that there was trend among Jewish people to adopt Polish language and to assimilate according, at least to some degree. Similar to adoption/assimilation of Hungarian Jews in Budapest, etc. to Magyar language and culture.
Without it, England would have won and we'd have an amazing nail-biting final match to decide the 2-2 draw, one that could have gone down in history. Now, the best we'll get is a draw of the series. Which no-one cares about.
Please amend the rules of test cricket so we get a game if it's rained off - play should be deferred until it's dry again, not cancelled.
Triggering a financial crash in the west as Iran did in 1987 would be one thing. And on the physical battlefield?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cOeFhSzoTuc
You couldn't move for Ukrainians in the local Aldi this morning - place was rammed. This is where many of the wealthy ones with means have escaped to.
(Leastways when you're NOT preoccupied watching bears!)
The young officer playing the part of Goering was asked why he was apparently sabotaging the German side. He explained that he was play Goering as trying to win.. at the Game of Nazi Hierarchy, since defeating the U.K. wasn’t as option.
Putin’s primary goal is remaining alive. The primary goal of those around him is the same.
Triggering a financial crash? How? Russian oil and gas trades at a vast negative premium, now. Supply from the US and elsewhere is growing.
On the battlefield, Russia is not receiving much support from its allies. And what they are receiving is telling - a few trainloads of shells from North Korea and a few ships loads of arms from South Africa.
Meanwhile, the US military industrial base is having a high old time - get rid of stocks of the old, push new into service and ramp up munitions production. Across Europe the same.
But are you sure this is the whole story?
Renters will have the wealth tax added to their rent
People who have paid off 10% of a 400,000 pound house will be paying wealth tax on the full 400k noth the 40k they actually own.
Poor pensioners that live on nothing more than a state pension but in the 40 years since they paid off their house that has now increased to an incredible price will suddenly find the wealth tax eating half their pension, fuel prices stealing the other half and food inflation swallowing another 20%
The rich will find ways around the wealth tax
Ukraine's glory and freedom will have not yet perished,
Still upon us, young brothers, fate shall smile.
Our enemies shall vanish, like dew in the sun.
We too shall rule, brothers, in our country.
But how does it sound when sung in the open, @Leon?
'Turns out it really was heart trouble,' said one protestor near Nazareth. 'That's really surprising. All these years and it's the first evidence the bastard actually has one.'
Protests have been paused while people consider the implications of this news, but the Palestinian Authority said it was clearly a conspiracy to cover up the fact Netanyahu has swallowed the poison he usually spouts.
(Incidentally - that's a rough paraphrase of an Israeli friend of mine who works at Yad Vashem, but with fewer c bombs.)
Israel judicial reform: Netanyahu in hospital ahead of key vote
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-66281968
Ok so links below for one of the hotter election days I've followed (Canada Jan 2006 probably the coldest), lots of fans being waved and water bottles in the polling stations.
Polls close on the mainland at 7pm BST and results should be released from 8pm BST once the Canary Islands have finished voting.
Votes will be counted at polling stations (as in most countries) and with Spain being one of the fastest-counting larger countries, the whole country should be pretty much counted quicker than it took Uxbridge to get to recount stage on Thursday night.
Spain has a closed-list PR system using d'Hondt, with a 3% threshold, but the 50 provinces are the constituencies, so in the smaller ones that elect 3 or 4 MPs, the key will be who wins the 3rd and 4th seats, as only in the larger provinces such as Madrid or Barcelona are the results more proportional.
The November 2019 results map is here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_breakdown_of_the_November_2019_Spanish_general_election_(Congress)#Summary - note the low number of blue provinces (only 21% nationwide for the PP), with other notable results being Vox finishing top in Murcia and the north African enclave of Ceuta, while Teruel Exists finished top in Teruel.
For tonight, my gut feeling is that PP + Vox will just get over the 176-seat majority line and Feijoo to be next PM, with PP finishing a few points ahead of the PSOE, and the leftwing grouping Sumar finishing in fourth. However it could be close, and if neither PP/Vox or PSOE/Sumar have a majority, it will depend on how the various nationalist/regionalist parties go with their support for a government. If PP+Vox is a majority, will it be confidence and supply, or a full coalition?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5PZfDL99xo
https://resultados.generales23j.es/es/inicio/0
https://www.rtve.es/play/videos/directo/canales-rtve/24h/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Spanish_general_election
https://elpais.com/
https://www.elmundo.es/
Finally, Thursday night was a lot of fun, an interesting set of results, really enjoyed the updates and banter, and thanks again to HYUFD for his Uxbridge insight which translated into a winning bet for me.
Muchas gracias,
Alfombra Doble
Andy, you do know that trans people existed before 1995, yes? Also that David Bowie famously "dated" a trans woman in his 1970s Berlin days?
I know PB has no memory, but still this place is sometimes so ahistorical it's weird. I keep thinking I have to remind people that James Callaghan existed and was Prime Minister. MoonRabbit's view of unions is so warped it's scary
If the offensive doesn't work, the next best solution may be to just water down the conflict so it is bogged down along the current lines, but keep on testing the Russian defences, so they have to spend loads of energy defending their line in Ukraine. And at the same time look at ways of testing out the Russians on other fronts, so Ukraine becomes more and more of a problem for them. A realistic endgame is something like the current occupied lands being a demilitarised buffer zone.
Russia is under enormous strain right now. They are begging their allies for any weapons they can, and who is stepping up? Hardly anyone.
By contrast, Ukraine gets better equipped by the day.
Don't forget, Russia's big advantage was artillery. But barrels don't last forever. Every time you fire there's a thermal expansion, contractions cycle, and that means they are running through their artillery pieces at a rate, even as the West continues to ship new (better) kit to Ukraine.
Their opening though, will be that there’s a 5km buffer zone entirely on the Russian side of the pre-war border, so that Russia actually loses territory for the invasion
A simple example -
When I told people of a time when carpets were fitted (at relatively high expense) by a number of British workmen, it was met with incredulity. And that was 1998. Globalisation has collapsed costs and wages.
But to many here, a new carpet for a flat has always been a few hundred quid and fitted by a lone Bosnian* guy in a tearing hurry to get to his next job.
*Recent job I had done. He drank double espressos as fast I could make them. By the end of the job he was The Flash.
They'll just get soaked up by bureaucrats, as always.
Incentivise technology to solve climate change, and it will be done.
In that discussion group @LostPassword made some good points about attriting (yes, it's a word) the Russians: although I agree with him he thinks it'll take months and I think it'll take over a year. The war is following a similar structure to WW1: a war of manoeuvre expected to last month's becomes congested due to new weapons, movement ceases, trenches are laid, artillery uses up shells in their millions, there is a Shell Crisis as prewar stocks are used up and production must ramp up to keep the sides supplied.
In the discussion group I gave links to three or four videos discussing the situation. The total watch time is about 3hrs so you would be forgiven for not watching them but they explain the supply and attrition issue in much greater depth.
(Ps @rcs1000 do you want to join in? I'm on the tablet so I don't know how to add you)
(PPS it takes a long time to burn up millions of men. Ukraine has a while to go yet)
This avoids tax addiction by the government - see cigarettes* - in addition to tax goes away when the problem ends.
*in a number of countries the tax on cigarettes is such that you are buying a pack of cigarettes from the government and giving a small tip to the tobacco companies. Which leads to the government actually not being *that* keen on reductions in smoking.
How is that remotely a bad thing? Unless you are looking for a guaranteed income to sweat your asset and live off someone else's rent and you don't think they should have a right to say "not interested in paying you rent thank you".
Not to forget of course location, location, location. Tokyo has seen it's population rise significantly while other locations have seen population falls. Empty homes in locations people have no desire to live in don't help Tokyo's housing market.
PP. 150
PSOE. 112
VOX. 31
SUMAR 27
If this is right Sanchez es una tostada,!
(Slava Ukraini)
I’ll be there in October instead. It seems a chunk of the population want to get on with Russia and the rest detest them with a vengeance. But one momentary trip on the stairs 2 weeks ago has put paid to finding out until Autumn.
I agree with Casino on test matches and rain. Play until 5 days of full play have been possible, or until one side wins. Bloody frustrating today.
https://imgur.com/a/5nq3cqf
An example of the barrel of the gun from a BMP. That would make Maudslay or Whitworth start to swear…
We don't need to save the planet either. Whatever happens the planet will still be here even if there are no humans. What you mean is save humans. Sorry too late it ain't going to happen. Rich countries in the west will find mitigation measures poor countries will be left to hang. There is nothing that can be done unless we get a global dictatorship that bans all private transportation, all meat etc. That won't happen so accept it.
They should have the flex to push forward each day to 9am starts or late finishes based on weather forecasts but because Hugo in commissioning doesn’t give an F about cricket so never watches he doesn’t get the intricacies.
PP 145-150
PSOE 113-118
Sumar 28-31
Vox 24-27
ERC 9
Junts 9
Bildu 6
PNV 5
BNG 1-2
CUP 1
CC 1
Teruel Existe 0-1
So PP+Vox is 169-177 (176 needed)
GAD3 for Mediaset:
150 PP
112 PSOE
31 Vox
27 Sumar
PP+Vox = 181
Sociometrica final poll:
PP 134-140
PSOE 109-115
VOX 35-39
Sumar 32-35
PP+Vox = 169-179
He's not getting involved in culture wars "Parents should be making these decisions".
It's helping his figures, so he could end up as the major Republican challenger to Trump, where he loses 2:1.
G20 countries fail to reach agreement on cutting fossil fuels
Fossil fuel-producing members dispute goal of tripling renewable capacity by 2030
The G20 bloc of wealthy economies meeting in India failed to reach a consensus on phasing down fossil fuels on Saturday after objections by some producer nations.
Scientists and campaigners are exasperated by international bodies’ foot-dragging on action to curb global heating even as extreme weather across the northern hemisphere underlined the climate crisis facing the world.
The G20 member countries together account for more than three-quarters of global emissions and gross domestic product, so a cumulative effort by the group to decarbonise is crucial in the global fight against climate breakdown.
However, disagreements including the intended tripling of renewable energy capacities by 2030 resulted in officials issuing an outcome statement and a chair summary instead of a joint communique at the end of their four-day meeting in Panaji, the capital of the Indian coastal state of Goa.
Fossil fuel use became a lightning rod in daylong discussions, but officials failed to reach consensus over curbing “unabated” use and argued over the language to describe the pathway to cut emissions, two sources familiar with the matter said. However, the chair statement released on Saturday evening included concerns from some member nations that were missing in the Friday draft, saying “others had different views on the matter that abatement and removal technologies will address such concerns”.
Singh, in a press briefing after the conference, said some countries wanted to use carbon capture instead of a phase-down of fossil fuels. He did not name the countries.
Saudi Arabia, Russia, China, South Africa and Indonesia are all known to oppose the goal of tripling renewable energy capacity this decade.
There aren’t that many mega properties in the U.K. - any tax on property that raises the kind of money that makes a difference will include suburban semis.
Remember: many Bulgarians believe the Russians to be "brothers" who helped liberate their country from Ottoman rule in the late 19th Century, whilst the West has never had much time for them - and bombed Sofia during the war - so they view things a little differently.
However, there is no hostility at all towards Ukrainians. They just shrug it all off a bit, I think.
Well OK the Soviet Union's Afghanistan.
I've never understood why in England finishing later (which is often denied by bad light anyway) is the only implemented solution rather than locking in an earlier start where you know light will be good.
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/nov/16/japan-reusable-housing-revolution
And that's a "problem" how exactly?
They’ve just had prayers, the national anthem, and the flypast, and they’ll be starting their engines shortly. British singer Ed Sheeran will will wave the green flag, and play the concert afterwards.
However, your actual point is totally correct!
Likely to be do-or-die (root-hog-or-die if you prefer) for Ron DeSantis.
Isn't New Hampshire traditionally the first "primary"?
If PP and Vox combined has a majority then that is the likeliest government, if not a PP and PSOE grand coalition comes into play
A favor that Soviets in turn returned . . . until September 1944 . . .
Iowa is first every four years.
New Hampshire is first primary though.