Someone better check that Meghan Markle doesn’t control a private mercenary company. Children’s’ author and illustrator - tick. Public criticism of ruling elite she used to be part of - tick. “Exile” to country speaking a similar language - tick. Nobody knows what bombshell is coming next - tick.
Did she used to run a catering business?
Didn't the Middletons have an 'events' business ?
Which went bankrupt leaving many suppliers and HMRC out of pocket ?
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off swing voters he rallied the Left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right as well as the centrist swing voters
If your party wasn't corrupt, incompetent and dishonest it would have a better chance to keep the right voting Conservative. Instead you have Refuk saying they have to run to ensure a conservative option is on the ballot, and on the other side your voters jumping ship in large numbers to parties seen as less shit.
Johnson is the problem, not the solution. That you can't see this but millions of your former voters can is profoundly funny.
We're going to read an awful lot about the terror now being felt in the hearts of millions who are on paper quite affluent. Nice house, daft car on the drive. But they are indebted up to the eyeballs, and the spikes in interest rates mean they could lose the lot.
In reality many will not. But the realisation that they are not only sailing that close to disaster but also utterly powerless will be saluatory. Especially when they see the party they kept voting for not only doing nothing, but blaming THEM for the mess they are in. With a sneer.
I think it will be worse than that. To the point of systemic effects. The car loans business could go sides ways in a big way, for example. And given how profitable it has been, guess who will have been investing in *that*, eh?
The other big one is the commercial property sector - especially the scale of owning chunks of high streets. Under “proper management”, this is leveraged until the pips squeak. If you think housing costs are nuts, meet some shop keepers who will tell you about their rent increases.
The new car business is totally screwed. Just as the pandemic supply chains get back to something approaching normal, there’s going to be a massive drop in demand from those who have become addicted to leasing a new car every three years when interest rates were on the floor. Add to the legislative changes that now push people towards electric cars, and you have a perfect storm of falling demand, especially for the luxury brands.
I was looking at the Mercedes range yesterday to try and get my head around what their strategy is. There is no doubt that they see electrification as a great opportunity to premiumise - e.g. the EQA starts at £52k, the GLA it is the electric version of starts at £37k.
This creates a gulf in the market which all of the new Chinese brands will happily step into. MG have already shown the way (and remember that MG is owned by the Chinese government via SIAC), others like BYD are coming.
I've recorded a video for Tesla's 20th birthday next Saturday, speculating about how the car market will look on their 40th birthday. And my conclusion is that many of the brands we know today will have disappeared, out-maneuvered by Chinese companies who make the cars people want and can afford. The remaining premium brands will have consolidated and retreated into one big blog making only the top end. A Swatch group for cars if you like.
Yes, the Chinese car brands are starting to arrive where I am. Coming in at 2/3 of the price of Korean brands, close to half the price of the Japanese brands. The European brands are nowhere by comparison, except to be seen as luxury goods. It’s going to be a masssive shift, and electrification is going to accelerate that change.
My Volvo S90 was chinese owned and built. My Tesla Model Y is American owned and chinese built. My brother's MG is chinese owned and built. The perception remains that China isn't luxury and won't be able to compete with western monoliths. This is wrong at a base level, and any of the big car company bosses surrounded by yes men saying that are in trouble.
The other major issue is this: legacy car makers are cynical about EVs. They build EVs converted from their existing products (e.g. EQA from GLA), built in the same manner with a gazillion parts arranged in the way their factories are set up to build. So you get an overly-complex but poorly packaged EV which they then charge a large premium for. So many of the new Chinese brands are ground up EVs, built with far fewer parts (copying the Tesla revolution) and thus cheaper and more profitable whilst being better packaged.
The old marques are in trouble.
An old friend who worked for Tata, for a while, said that being involved in the Tesla tear downs was fascinating. Not just for the insights into Tesla, but also into the ICE automotive mindset faced with EVs.
He is an IT guy, but knows his electronics. He found the ICE trained engineers incredibly dismissive and not interested in electric power train engineering - “Battery and a motor, how hard can that be?”
Sounds like they only understood the positive bits.
'HM Revenue and Customs handed out fines to 184,000 people paid less than £12,500 a year – the level under which people were then not subject to income tax – in the 2020-21 financial year (the latest for which full figures are available) for failing to complete a self-assessment tax form on time.
Many of these people, already in severe financial difficulties, misunderstood the initial fine and were then subjected to further fines and interest. Some people were left facing fines of thousands of pounds, which would take them many years to pay.'
I suppose they have to make up for all those IHT allowances to well-off Tory voters. But really? Almost 20K people?
I wish I could fine them for their tardiness. It took them almost seven months to repay £5,000 they should *not* have taken from my father even I had drawn their attention to the matter with some vigour.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
It's fine, with SKS you're going to have right wingers in government forming strong opposition to a Labour government...
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I'm pretty confident of two things. First is that the Conservatives will respond to defeat by moving further to the right. Second is that it won't go well for them. Partly because votes gained on the right will be netted out by votes lost on the left. But also becuase, however right wing the Conservatives go, the proper populists will always be able to go a bit further.
Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest Brexit tracker poll in partnership with UK in a Changing Europe finds 61% of Britons say they would now vote to join the EU, unchanged from our previous polls in April and in February and the joint-largest number ever to say they would vote to join the EU in our Brexit tracker poll.
Altogether, if a referendum on re-joining the European Union were to take place tomorrow, 61% (–) say they would vote for the UK to join the EU, while 39% (–) say they would vote for the UK to stay out of the EU.
He has done an awful lot of reporting from outside of Westminster over the decades, from almost everywhere. And he reports that exhaustion and political hopelessness has seeped into the shires and market towns in a way it hadn't done before.
Fundamentally there is no way back for this government, and as their own sense of hopelessness sets in, watch for the schism that has wrecked the parliamentary Tory party have one final attempt to make a terrible situation worse.
Having tried and failed to exorcise voters with "yebbut Starmer doesn't know what a woman is", the only defence is "he will do all the things we're doing but refuse to admit like an open door immigration policy" and "he's a bit crap and doesn't have all the answers".
Which points to a big crash in turnout, which will hit Tories more than any other party, a Labour majority but in sane rather than silly territory, and hopefully a cross-party realisation that absolutism is the mess we are in and consensus facing into the Big Issues needs to happen.
Interesting but not engaging. He notably avoids any suggestion about how to move forward out of the political hopelessness he identifies. So his article joins the long queue of similar ones startlingly short of options.
Sure - there are no obvious and simple options. Nor as a political observer is he supposed to be proposing any. Politically though he highlights something which will have a profound effect on the next election. Ignore it if you prefer, but it is there.
Political observers/journalists propose futures all the time, and also evaluate options proposed by others. What Harris has to say about small town feeling is true but not original, and tells readers nothing they didn't already know. From a PB point of view it consolidates the view that another government is going to take over in 2024, but easily the most important real question is how they should and will govern in relation to the difficult issues.
We already know that they will blame the last lot for several years (Tories still do it about Labour after 13 years), but again that doesn't tell us anything important.
BTW the HoL proposal from Labour is not very brilliant, even though reform is needed.
I traded out my lay of Labour for a tiny profit a few days back.
I'm in swing area and we've seen lots of Labour activity, but virtually nothing from Con (one postal 'survey' only). Was speaking to a Lab canvasser a few days ago - I promised my certain vote and got to chatting about prospects, they seemed genuinely to feel there was a good chance, could well be wrong, but I don't think they were just talking things up as they expressed surprise to be in with a shout. Veteran of a few campagins and said they didn't think they'd really have much chance when the by election was called.
I'm not calling this for Lab as I still think it's a big ask. I've not backed Lab (and I don't think they're great value at odds this morning) but I have sold out of my anti-Lab position. My opinion has been changed as the Conservatives seem in disarray with few boots on the ground (not just in my area, also talking to those in others) and because the LDs, who could have bene potential spoilers splitting the anti-Tory vote, have ben completely invisible. There are still plenty of Tories here and the Tories could well win the seat, but apathy among Con voters and a fired up anti-Tory vote could swing it. I no longer have any confidence in calling it either way.
Thanks.
It takes guts to not have an opinion.
More posts like this, please, pbers.
Those are my [lack of] opinions, and if you don't like them... well I have no others
We're going to read an awful lot about the terror now being felt in the hearts of millions who are on paper quite affluent. Nice house, daft car on the drive. But they are indebted up to the eyeballs, and the spikes in interest rates mean they could lose the lot.
In reality many will not. But the realisation that they are not only sailing that close to disaster but also utterly powerless will be saluatory. Especially when they see the party they kept voting for not only doing nothing, but blaming THEM for the mess they are in. With a sneer.
I think it will be worse than that. To the point of systemic effects. The car loans business could go sides ways in a big way, for example. And given how profitable it has been, guess who will have been investing in *that*, eh?
The other big one is the commercial property sector - especially the scale of owning chunks of high streets. Under “proper management”, this is leveraged until the pips squeak. If you think housing costs are nuts, meet some shop keepers who will tell you about their rent increases.
The new car business is totally screwed. Just as the pandemic supply chains get back to something approaching normal, there’s going to be a massive drop in demand from those who have become addicted to leasing a new car every three years when interest rates were on the floor. Add to the legislative changes that now push people towards electric cars, and you have a perfect storm of falling demand, especially for the luxury brands.
I was looking at the Mercedes range yesterday to try and get my head around what their strategy is. There is no doubt that they see electrification as a great opportunity to premiumise - e.g. the EQA starts at £52k, the GLA it is the electric version of starts at £37k.
This creates a gulf in the market which all of the new Chinese brands will happily step into. MG have already shown the way (and remember that MG is owned by the Chinese government via SIAC), others like BYD are coming.
I've recorded a video for Tesla's 20th birthday next Saturday, speculating about how the car market will look on their 40th birthday. And my conclusion is that many of the brands we know today will have disappeared, out-maneuvered by Chinese companies who make the cars people want and can afford. The remaining premium brands will have consolidated and retreated into one big blog making only the top end. A Swatch group for cars if you like.
Yes, the Chinese car brands are starting to arrive where I am. Coming in at 2/3 of the price of Korean brands, close to half the price of the Japanese brands. The European brands are nowhere by comparison, except to be seen as luxury goods. It’s going to be a masssive shift, and electrification is going to accelerate that change.
My Volvo S90 was chinese owned and built. My Tesla Model Y is American owned and chinese built. My brother's MG is chinese owned and built. The perception remains that China isn't luxury and won't be able to compete with western monoliths. This is wrong at a base level, and any of the big car company bosses surrounded by yes men saying that are in trouble.
The other major issue is this: legacy car makers are cynical about EVs. They build EVs converted from their existing products (e.g. EQA from GLA), built in the same manner with a gazillion parts arranged in the way their factories are set up to build. So you get an overly-complex but poorly packaged EV which they then charge a large premium for. So many of the new Chinese brands are ground up EVs, built with far fewer parts (copying the Tesla revolution) and thus cheaper and more profitable whilst being better packaged.
The old marques are in trouble.
An old friend who worked for Tata, for a while, said that being involved in the Tesla tear downs was fascinating. Not just for the insights into Tesla, but also into the ICE automotive mindset faced with EVs.
He is an IT guy, but knows his electronics. He found the ICE trained engineers incredibly dismissive and not interested in electric power train engineering - “Battery and a motor, how hard can that be?”
I went back to the founder's ethos when they started Tesla. A "car manufacturer which is also a technology company". Born out of frustration that a now long-dead company wasn't interested in scaling their new EV sportscar, Eberhard founded Tesla. And then with Elon Musk on board they set off licensing, refining, and then surpassing the AC Propulsion tech which inspired them.
Now it isn't just that their motor and drivetrain package is leading edge, the way it is packaged and assembled is genuinely industry-changing. Everyone else was building mechanical cars the old way - lots of parts packaged to suit the way the engine needs to be stacked. Tesla's small packaging and now the gigacasting process means they can build a highly efficient (in both energy and space usage) powertrain and use minimal parts. Which means big profits. With new chinese manufacturers copying.
One of the great things about PB is that you can always learn something new about the world.
I can now confidently talk about new developments in car manufacturing to people who know nothing about car manufacturing.
We're going to read an awful lot about the terror now being felt in the hearts of millions who are on paper quite affluent. Nice house, daft car on the drive. But they are indebted up to the eyeballs, and the spikes in interest rates mean they could lose the lot.
In reality many will not. But the realisation that they are not only sailing that close to disaster but also utterly powerless will be saluatory. Especially when they see the party they kept voting for not only doing nothing, but blaming THEM for the mess they are in. With a sneer.
I think it will be worse than that. To the point of systemic effects. The car loans business could go sides ways in a big way, for example. And given how profitable it has been, guess who will have been investing in *that*, eh?
The other big one is the commercial property sector - especially the scale of owning chunks of high streets. Under “proper management”, this is leveraged until the pips squeak. If you think housing costs are nuts, meet some shop keepers who will tell you about their rent increases.
The new car business is totally screwed. Just as the pandemic supply chains get back to something approaching normal, there’s going to be a massive drop in demand from those who have become addicted to leasing a new car every three years when interest rates were on the floor. Add to the legislative changes that now push people towards electric cars, and you have a perfect storm of falling demand, especially for the luxury brands.
I was looking at the Mercedes range yesterday to try and get my head around what their strategy is. There is no doubt that they see electrification as a great opportunity to premiumise - e.g. the EQA starts at £52k, the GLA it is the electric version of starts at £37k.
This creates a gulf in the market which all of the new Chinese brands will happily step into. MG have already shown the way (and remember that MG is owned by the Chinese government via SIAC), others like BYD are coming.
I've recorded a video for Tesla's 20th birthday next Saturday, speculating about how the car market will look on their 40th birthday. And my conclusion is that many of the brands we know today will have disappeared, out-maneuvered by Chinese companies who make the cars people want and can afford. The remaining premium brands will have consolidated and retreated into one big blog making only the top end. A Swatch group for cars if you like.
Yes, the Chinese car brands are starting to arrive where I am. Coming in at 2/3 of the price of Korean brands, close to half the price of the Japanese brands. The European brands are nowhere by comparison, except to be seen as luxury goods. It’s going to be a masssive shift, and electrification is going to accelerate that change.
Back in the 70s, the Japanese brands were a joke; the same for the Koreans. It doesn't take all that long to become a respected brand if the quality is there.
Someone better check that Meghan Markle doesn’t control a private mercenary company. Children’s’ author and illustrator - tick. Public criticism of ruling elite she used to be part of - tick. “Exile” to country speaking a similar language - tick. Nobody knows what bombshell is coming next - tick.
Did she used to run a catering business?
Didn't the Middletons have an 'events' business ?
Which went bankrupt leaving many suppliers and HMRC out of pocket ?
I think they made party hats, banners, balloons, things like that.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I'm pretty confident of two things. First is that the Conservatives will respond to defeat by moving further to the right. Second is that it won't go well for them. Partly because votes gained on the right will be netted out by votes lost on the left. But also becuase, however right wing the Conservatives go, the proper populists will always be able to go a bit further.
Of course. Farage doesn't need workable policies, just crayon pictures of SOMETHING MUST BE DONE responses to events. The Tories have tried to compete - the illegal Illegal Migration Bill is 100% crayon. And yet Farage is still having them for lunch because his crayons have more read in the finished picture than even someone as mendacious as Braverman can dare to use.
We are where we are. What we can focus on instead is fixing the economy and finding ways to bring hope and pride and investment back to people's communities. Which will mean at least complete alignment with the EEA and CU. But focus on the future, not the past.
Nah
We need truth and reconciliation first, other wise the fukwits that led us here will still have a voice in the debate.
There is another article in The Times today by another Brexit devotee explaining why it's not his fault the magic beans he sold us have failed to produce the promised beanstalk.
Talking of which, stumbled across this at the weekend. Whilst you can make any two bits of history rhyme if you try hard enough, the parallels are intriging;
An annual thread on Brexit
TLDR: Brexit is similar to US Prohibition (which lasted 13 years). Brexit won’t end soon but won’t last forever, so take a 10+ year view.
Tweeting on it once a year gives me time to think. This is #slowtwitter 1/19
'HM Revenue and Customs handed out fines to 184,000 people paid less than £12,500 a year – the level under which people were then not subject to income tax – in the 2020-21 financial year (the latest for which full figures are available) for failing to complete a self-assessment tax form on time.
Many of these people, already in severe financial difficulties, misunderstood the initial fine and were then subjected to further fines and interest. Some people were left facing fines of thousands of pounds, which would take them many years to pay.'
I suppose they have to make up for all those IHT allowances to well-off Tory voters. But really? Almost 20K people?
HMRC used to observe a simple common sense rule that nobody should receive a fine higher than what they owed in late tax payments. A useful way of making sure that people who owed no tax weren't fined simply for being disorganised. That rule was jettisoned in 2011, according to the article, another nasty example of Osborne-era shitting on the poor.
We're going to read an awful lot about the terror now being felt in the hearts of millions who are on paper quite affluent. Nice house, daft car on the drive. But they are indebted up to the eyeballs, and the spikes in interest rates mean they could lose the lot.
In reality many will not. But the realisation that they are not only sailing that close to disaster but also utterly powerless will be saluatory. Especially when they see the party they kept voting for not only doing nothing, but blaming THEM for the mess they are in. With a sneer.
I think it will be worse than that. To the point of systemic effects. The car loans business could go sides ways in a big way, for example. And given how profitable it has been, guess who will have been investing in *that*, eh?
The other big one is the commercial property sector - especially the scale of owning chunks of high streets. Under “proper management”, this is leveraged until the pips squeak. If you think housing costs are nuts, meet some shop keepers who will tell you about their rent increases.
The new car business is totally screwed. Just as the pandemic supply chains get back to something approaching normal, there’s going to be a massive drop in demand from those who have become addicted to leasing a new car every three years when interest rates were on the floor. Add to the legislative changes that now push people towards electric cars, and you have a perfect storm of falling demand, especially for the luxury brands.
I was looking at the Mercedes range yesterday to try and get my head around what their strategy is. There is no doubt that they see electrification as a great opportunity to premiumise - e.g. the EQA starts at £52k, the GLA it is the electric version of starts at £37k.
This creates a gulf in the market which all of the new Chinese brands will happily step into. MG have already shown the way (and remember that MG is owned by the Chinese government via SIAC), others like BYD are coming.
I've recorded a video for Tesla's 20th birthday next Saturday, speculating about how the car market will look on their 40th birthday. And my conclusion is that many of the brands we know today will have disappeared, out-maneuvered by Chinese companies who make the cars people want and can afford. The remaining premium brands will have consolidated and retreated into one big blog making only the top end. A Swatch group for cars if you like.
Yes, the Chinese car brands are starting to arrive where I am. Coming in at 2/3 of the price of Korean brands, close to half the price of the Japanese brands. The European brands are nowhere by comparison, except to be seen as luxury goods. It’s going to be a masssive shift, and electrification is going to accelerate that change.
Back in the 70s, the Japanese brands were a joke; the same for the Koreans. It doesn't take all that long to become a respected brand if the quality is there.
Didn't 1970s Japanese cars have good engines and bad bodies ?
As opposed to British cars which had bad engines and bad bodies.
Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest Brexit tracker poll in partnership with UK in a Changing Europe finds 61% of Britons say they would now vote to join the EU, unchanged from our previous polls in April and in February and the joint-largest number ever to say they would vote to join the EU in our Brexit tracker poll.
Altogether, if a referendum on re-joining the European Union were to take place tomorrow, 61% (–) say they would vote for the UK to join the EU, while 39% (–) say they would vote for the UK to stay out of the EU.
Yes, the idea that Rejoin is not going to be a serious political issue is just not tenable. Brexit is being blamed for a lot of the national malaise, and sooner or later politicians will have to take note of what voters want.
We're going to read an awful lot about the terror now being felt in the hearts of millions who are on paper quite affluent. Nice house, daft car on the drive. But they are indebted up to the eyeballs, and the spikes in interest rates mean they could lose the lot.
In reality many will not. But the realisation that they are not only sailing that close to disaster but also utterly powerless will be saluatory. Especially when they see the party they kept voting for not only doing nothing, but blaming THEM for the mess they are in. With a sneer.
I think it will be worse than that. To the point of systemic effects. The car loans business could go sides ways in a big way, for example. And given how profitable it has been, guess who will have been investing in *that*, eh?
The other big one is the commercial property sector - especially the scale of owning chunks of high streets. Under “proper management”, this is leveraged until the pips squeak. If you think housing costs are nuts, meet some shop keepers who will tell you about their rent increases.
The new car business is totally screwed. Just as the pandemic supply chains get back to something approaching normal, there’s going to be a massive drop in demand from those who have become addicted to leasing a new car every three years when interest rates were on the floor. Add to the legislative changes that now push people towards electric cars, and you have a perfect storm of falling demand, especially for the luxury brands.
I was looking at the Mercedes range yesterday to try and get my head around what their strategy is. There is no doubt that they see electrification as a great opportunity to premiumise - e.g. the EQA starts at £52k, the GLA it is the electric version of starts at £37k.
This creates a gulf in the market which all of the new Chinese brands will happily step into. MG have already shown the way (and remember that MG is owned by the Chinese government via SIAC), others like BYD are coming.
I've recorded a video for Tesla's 20th birthday next Saturday, speculating about how the car market will look on their 40th birthday. And my conclusion is that many of the brands we know today will have disappeared, out-maneuvered by Chinese companies who make the cars people want and can afford. The remaining premium brands will have consolidated and retreated into one big blog making only the top end. A Swatch group for cars if you like.
Yes, the Chinese car brands are starting to arrive where I am. Coming in at 2/3 of the price of Korean brands, close to half the price of the Japanese brands. The European brands are nowhere by comparison, except to be seen as luxury goods. It’s going to be a masssive shift, and electrification is going to accelerate that change.
My Volvo S90 was chinese owned and built. My Tesla Model Y is American owned and chinese built. My brother's MG is chinese owned and built. The perception remains that China isn't luxury and won't be able to compete with western monoliths. This is wrong at a base level, and any of the big car company bosses surrounded by yes men saying that are in trouble.
The other major issue is this: legacy car makers are cynical about EVs. They build EVs converted from their existing products (e.g. EQA from GLA), built in the same manner with a gazillion parts arranged in the way their factories are set up to build. So you get an overly-complex but poorly packaged EV which they then charge a large premium for. So many of the new Chinese brands are ground up EVs, built with far fewer parts (copying the Tesla revolution) and thus cheaper and more profitable whilst being better packaged.
The old marques are in trouble.
Not those (like VW) with deep enough pockets. They are building completely new factories and completely new platforms on precisely the same basis.
The number and scale if new production facilities being built in both Europe and the US is astonishing. Not so much here.
We're going to read an awful lot about the terror now being felt in the hearts of millions who are on paper quite affluent. Nice house, daft car on the drive. But they are indebted up to the eyeballs, and the spikes in interest rates mean they could lose the lot.
In reality many will not. But the realisation that they are not only sailing that close to disaster but also utterly powerless will be saluatory. Especially when they see the party they kept voting for not only doing nothing, but blaming THEM for the mess they are in. With a sneer.
I think it will be worse than that. To the point of systemic effects. The car loans business could go sides ways in a big way, for example. And given how profitable it has been, guess who will have been investing in *that*, eh?
The other big one is the commercial property sector - especially the scale of owning chunks of high streets. Under “proper management”, this is leveraged until the pips squeak. If you think housing costs are nuts, meet some shop keepers who will tell you about their rent increases.
The new car business is totally screwed. Just as the pandemic supply chains get back to something approaching normal, there’s going to be a massive drop in demand from those who have become addicted to leasing a new car every three years when interest rates were on the floor. Add to the legislative changes that now push people towards electric cars, and you have a perfect storm of falling demand, especially for the luxury brands.
I was looking at the Mercedes range yesterday to try and get my head around what their strategy is. There is no doubt that they see electrification as a great opportunity to premiumise - e.g. the EQA starts at £52k, the GLA it is the electric version of starts at £37k.
This creates a gulf in the market which all of the new Chinese brands will happily step into. MG have already shown the way (and remember that MG is owned by the Chinese government via SIAC), others like BYD are coming.
I've recorded a video for Tesla's 20th birthday next Saturday, speculating about how the car market will look on their 40th birthday. And my conclusion is that many of the brands we know today will have disappeared, out-maneuvered by Chinese companies who make the cars people want and can afford. The remaining premium brands will have consolidated and retreated into one big blog making only the top end. A Swatch group for cars if you like.
Yes, the Chinese car brands are starting to arrive where I am. Coming in at 2/3 of the price of Korean brands, close to half the price of the Japanese brands. The European brands are nowhere by comparison, except to be seen as luxury goods. It’s going to be a masssive shift, and electrification is going to accelerate that change.
My Volvo S90 was chinese owned and built. My Tesla Model Y is American owned and chinese built. My brother's MG is chinese owned and built. The perception remains that China isn't luxury and won't be able to compete with western monoliths. This is wrong at a base level, and any of the big car company bosses surrounded by yes men saying that are in trouble.
The other major issue is this: legacy car makers are cynical about EVs. They build EVs converted from their existing products (e.g. EQA from GLA), built in the same manner with a gazillion parts arranged in the way their factories are set up to build. So you get an overly-complex but poorly packaged EV which they then charge a large premium for. So many of the new Chinese brands are ground up EVs, built with far fewer parts (copying the Tesla revolution) and thus cheaper and more profitable whilst being better packaged.
The old marques are in trouble.
An old friend who worked for Tata, for a while, said that being involved in the Tesla tear downs was fascinating. Not just for the insights into Tesla, but also into the ICE automotive mindset faced with EVs.
He is an IT guy, but knows his electronics. He found the ICE trained engineers incredibly dismissive and not interested in electric power train engineering - “Battery and a motor, how hard can that be?”
Sounds like they only understood the positive bits.
We're going to read an awful lot about the terror now being felt in the hearts of millions who are on paper quite affluent. Nice house, daft car on the drive. But they are indebted up to the eyeballs, and the spikes in interest rates mean they could lose the lot.
In reality many will not. But the realisation that they are not only sailing that close to disaster but also utterly powerless will be saluatory. Especially when they see the party they kept voting for not only doing nothing, but blaming THEM for the mess they are in. With a sneer.
I think it will be worse than that. To the point of systemic effects. The car loans business could go sides ways in a big way, for example. And given how profitable it has been, guess who will have been investing in *that*, eh?
The other big one is the commercial property sector - especially the scale of owning chunks of high streets. Under “proper management”, this is leveraged until the pips squeak. If you think housing costs are nuts, meet some shop keepers who will tell you about their rent increases.
The new car business is totally screwed. Just as the pandemic supply chains get back to something approaching normal, there’s going to be a massive drop in demand from those who have become addicted to leasing a new car every three years when interest rates were on the floor. Add to the legislative changes that now push people towards electric cars, and you have a perfect storm of falling demand, especially for the luxury brands.
I was looking at the Mercedes range yesterday to try and get my head around what their strategy is. There is no doubt that they see electrification as a great opportunity to premiumise - e.g. the EQA starts at £52k, the GLA it is the electric version of starts at £37k.
This creates a gulf in the market which all of the new Chinese brands will happily step into. MG have already shown the way (and remember that MG is owned by the Chinese government via SIAC), others like BYD are coming.
I've recorded a video for Tesla's 20th birthday next Saturday, speculating about how the car market will look on their 40th birthday. And my conclusion is that many of the brands we know today will have disappeared, out-maneuvered by Chinese companies who make the cars people want and can afford. The remaining premium brands will have consolidated and retreated into one big blog making only the top end. A Swatch group for cars if you like.
Yes, the Chinese car brands are starting to arrive where I am. Coming in at 2/3 of the price of Korean brands, close to half the price of the Japanese brands. The European brands are nowhere by comparison, except to be seen as luxury goods. It’s going to be a masssive shift, and electrification is going to accelerate that change.
My Volvo S90 was chinese owned and built. My Tesla Model Y is American owned and chinese built. My brother's MG is chinese owned and built. The perception remains that China isn't luxury and won't be able to compete with western monoliths. This is wrong at a base level, and any of the big car company bosses surrounded by yes men saying that are in trouble.
The other major issue is this: legacy car makers are cynical about EVs. They build EVs converted from their existing products (e.g. EQA from GLA), built in the same manner with a gazillion parts arranged in the way their factories are set up to build. So you get an overly-complex but poorly packaged EV which they then charge a large premium for. So many of the new Chinese brands are ground up EVs, built with far fewer parts (copying the Tesla revolution) and thus cheaper and more profitable whilst being better packaged.
The old marques are in trouble.
An old friend who worked for Tata, for a while, said that being involved in the Tesla tear downs was fascinating. Not just for the insights into Tesla, but also into the ICE automotive mindset faced with EVs.
He is an IT guy, but knows his electronics. He found the ICE trained engineers incredibly dismissive and not interested in electric power train engineering - “Battery and a motor, how hard can that be?”
I went back to the founder's ethos when they started Tesla. A "car manufacturer which is also a technology company". Born out of frustration that a now long-dead company wasn't interested in scaling their new EV sportscar, Eberhard founded Tesla. And then with Elon Musk on board they set off licensing, refining, and then surpassing the AC Propulsion tech which inspired them.
Now it isn't just that their motor and drivetrain package is leading edge, the way it is packaged and assembled is genuinely industry-changing. Everyone else was building mechanical cars the old way - lots of parts packaged to suit the way the engine needs to be stacked. Tesla's small packaging and now the gigacasting process means they can build a highly efficient (in both energy and space usage) powertrain and use minimal parts. Which means big profits. With new chinese manufacturers copying.
One of the great things about PB is that you can always learn something new about the world.
I can now confidently talk about new developments in car manufacturing to people who know nothing about car manufacturing.
Tesla gets endlessly attacked for various reasons. Musk is mad/bad. EVs are crap and will need a £500k battery swap after 3 years. Teslas are terribly built and are Bad Cars.
Easy talking points for people who need string opinions, regardless of facts. Meanwhile Tesla get on with a genuine revolution in how to design and build cars. Whilst their valuation at multiples of the next biggest car manufacturer is probably overblown, the existential threat to VAG, GM, Mercedes etc is real and growing.
Tesla's Model 3/Y is the 21st century equivalent of the Model T Ford. The car which revolutionised the industry. And however bonkers Musk is, its the blank sheet of paper innovations which drive his businesses. Why do I have to package a car like that? Why do I have to use 150 parts when I can use 5? Why can't we use stainless steel for rockets? Why is the idea of launching a swarm of mini satellites impossibly expensive?
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off swing voters he rallied the Left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right as well as the centrist swing voters
If your party wasn't corrupt, incompetent and dishonest it would have a better chance to keep the right voting Conservative. Instead you have Refuk saying they have to run to ensure a conservative option is on the ballot, and on the other side your voters jumping ship in large numbers to parties seen as less shit.
Johnson is the problem, not the solution. That you can't see this but millions of your former voters can is profoundly funny.
I would argue that Johnson is a symptom, not the cause. The Tory party knew who he was and he was still allowed to be in charge because they thought (correctly for a time) that he was a winner. The Tory Party since Cameron have really been a balancing act of preserving the Tory coalition of "moderate sensibles", pensioners and culture war zealots. The coalition allowed Cameron to blame everything "wet" on the LDs with the zealots and claim victory for it with the "sensibles" so more typical centrist voters gave him a majority when he probably would have been fine with another coalition. Since then party cohesion and power has always been the priority over governing. The referendum, May, May's early election, the deal with the DUP, Johnson and Truss - each step looking madder than the last until we get here, all to appease hard liners who will never be satisfied because what they really want to roll back is the half of modernity that doesn't line their pockets.
The fact that people like HYUFD here has, over the last few weeks, essentially said if you're not a god fearing Christian who believes marriage is only between a man and a woman and have the same social and economic attitudes of a Victorian aristocrat you're not a "true Conservative" shows you how mad they've gone. Everyone is a secret lefty Marxist - even Johnson was too lefty for some with his willingness to say he wanted to increase spending on infrastructure; the horror!
We're going to read an awful lot about the terror now being felt in the hearts of millions who are on paper quite affluent. Nice house, daft car on the drive. But they are indebted up to the eyeballs, and the spikes in interest rates mean they could lose the lot.
In reality many will not. But the realisation that they are not only sailing that close to disaster but also utterly powerless will be saluatory. Especially when they see the party they kept voting for not only doing nothing, but blaming THEM for the mess they are in. With a sneer.
I think it will be worse than that. To the point of systemic effects. The car loans business could go sides ways in a big way, for example. And given how profitable it has been, guess who will have been investing in *that*, eh?
The other big one is the commercial property sector - especially the scale of owning chunks of high streets. Under “proper management”, this is leveraged until the pips squeak. If you think housing costs are nuts, meet some shop keepers who will tell you about their rent increases.
The new car business is totally screwed. Just as the pandemic supply chains get back to something approaching normal, there’s going to be a massive drop in demand from those who have become addicted to leasing a new car every three years when interest rates were on the floor. Add to the legislative changes that now push people towards electric cars, and you have a perfect storm of falling demand, especially for the luxury brands.
I was looking at the Mercedes range yesterday to try and get my head around what their strategy is. There is no doubt that they see electrification as a great opportunity to premiumise - e.g. the EQA starts at £52k, the GLA it is the electric version of starts at £37k.
This creates a gulf in the market which all of the new Chinese brands will happily step into. MG have already shown the way (and remember that MG is owned by the Chinese government via SIAC), others like BYD are coming.
I've recorded a video for Tesla's 20th birthday next Saturday, speculating about how the car market will look on their 40th birthday. And my conclusion is that many of the brands we know today will have disappeared, out-maneuvered by Chinese companies who make the cars people want and can afford. The remaining premium brands will have consolidated and retreated into one big blog making only the top end. A Swatch group for cars if you like.
Yes, the Chinese car brands are starting to arrive where I am. Coming in at 2/3 of the price of Korean brands, close to half the price of the Japanese brands. The European brands are nowhere by comparison, except to be seen as luxury goods. It’s going to be a masssive shift, and electrification is going to accelerate that change.
My Volvo S90 was chinese owned and built. My Tesla Model Y is American owned and chinese built. My brother's MG is chinese owned and built. The perception remains that China isn't luxury and won't be able to compete with western monoliths. This is wrong at a base level, and any of the big car company bosses surrounded by yes men saying that are in trouble.
The other major issue is this: legacy car makers are cynical about EVs. They build EVs converted from their existing products (e.g. EQA from GLA), built in the same manner with a gazillion parts arranged in the way their factories are set up to build. So you get an overly-complex but poorly packaged EV which they then charge a large premium for. So many of the new Chinese brands are ground up EVs, built with far fewer parts (copying the Tesla revolution) and thus cheaper and more profitable whilst being better packaged.
The old marques are in trouble.
An old friend who worked for Tata, for a while, said that being involved in the Tesla tear downs was fascinating. Not just for the insights into Tesla, but also into the ICE automotive mindset faced with EVs.
He is an IT guy, but knows his electronics. He found the ICE trained engineers incredibly dismissive and not interested in electric power train engineering - “Battery and a motor, how hard can that be?”
Sounds like they only understood the positive bits.
Yes, they only even *notice* half the problem.
It could be terminal.
No charge.
PB: The best place to keep up with current affairs.
The other major issue is this: legacy car makers are cynical about EVs. They build EVs converted from their existing products (e.g. EQA from GLA),
That's just MB wringing the last euro out of the MFA2 platform. Their premium products (EQE, EQS) are built on dedicated EV platforms (EVA).
All of the other tier one OEMs now have dedicated EV platforms (BMW: Neue Klasse, VAG: MEB, I can't remember what the Ford and GM ones are called but they exist).
The problem the legacy OEMs don't have is an association between their brand and a degenerate fucc boi.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I hope you're right. It will doom the Tories for a generation. Under PFTP, an ultra right wing Tory party minus sensible centrist Tories stands no chance of being in government.
We're going to read an awful lot about the terror now being felt in the hearts of millions who are on paper quite affluent. Nice house, daft car on the drive. But they are indebted up to the eyeballs, and the spikes in interest rates mean they could lose the lot.
In reality many will not. But the realisation that they are not only sailing that close to disaster but also utterly powerless will be saluatory. Especially when they see the party they kept voting for not only doing nothing, but blaming THEM for the mess they are in. With a sneer.
I think it will be worse than that. To the point of systemic effects. The car loans business could go sides ways in a big way, for example. And given how profitable it has been, guess who will have been investing in *that*, eh?
The other big one is the commercial property sector - especially the scale of owning chunks of high streets. Under “proper management”, this is leveraged until the pips squeak. If you think housing costs are nuts, meet some shop keepers who will tell you about their rent increases.
The new car business is totally screwed. Just as the pandemic supply chains get back to something approaching normal, there’s going to be a massive drop in demand from those who have become addicted to leasing a new car every three years when interest rates were on the floor. Add to the legislative changes that now push people towards electric cars, and you have a perfect storm of falling demand, especially for the luxury brands.
I was looking at the Mercedes range yesterday to try and get my head around what their strategy is. There is no doubt that they see electrification as a great opportunity to premiumise - e.g. the EQA starts at £52k, the GLA it is the electric version of starts at £37k.
This creates a gulf in the market which all of the new Chinese brands will happily step into. MG have already shown the way (and remember that MG is owned by the Chinese government via SIAC), others like BYD are coming.
I've recorded a video for Tesla's 20th birthday next Saturday, speculating about how the car market will look on their 40th birthday. And my conclusion is that many of the brands we know today will have disappeared, out-maneuvered by Chinese companies who make the cars people want and can afford. The remaining premium brands will have consolidated and retreated into one big blog making only the top end. A Swatch group for cars if you like.
Yes, the Chinese car brands are starting to arrive where I am. Coming in at 2/3 of the price of Korean brands, close to half the price of the Japanese brands. The European brands are nowhere by comparison, except to be seen as luxury goods. It’s going to be a masssive shift, and electrification is going to accelerate that change.
My Volvo S90 was chinese owned and built. My Tesla Model Y is American owned and chinese built. My brother's MG is chinese owned and built. The perception remains that China isn't luxury and won't be able to compete with western monoliths. This is wrong at a base level, and any of the big car company bosses surrounded by yes men saying that are in trouble.
The other major issue is this: legacy car makers are cynical about EVs. They build EVs converted from their existing products (e.g. EQA from GLA), built in the same manner with a gazillion parts arranged in the way their factories are set up to build. So you get an overly-complex but poorly packaged EV which they then charge a large premium for. So many of the new Chinese brands are ground up EVs, built with far fewer parts (copying the Tesla revolution) and thus cheaper and more profitable whilst being better packaged.
The old marques are in trouble.
An old friend who worked for Tata, for a while, said that being involved in the Tesla tear downs was fascinating. Not just for the insights into Tesla, but also into the ICE automotive mindset faced with EVs.
He is an IT guy, but knows his electronics. He found the ICE trained engineers incredibly dismissive and not interested in electric power train engineering - “Battery and a motor, how hard can that be?”
Sounds like they only understood the positive bits.
Yes, they only even *notice* half the problem.
It could be terminal.
No charge.
PB: The best place to keep up with current affairs.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I'm pretty confident of two things. First is that the Conservatives will respond to defeat by moving further to the right. Second is that it won't go well for them. Partly because votes gained on the right will be netted out by votes lost on the left. But also becuase, however right wing the Conservatives go, the proper populists will always be able to go a bit further.
My concern is just how right wing Labour are willing to go. The new austerity of SKSs "fiscal rules" will mean another lost generation, another decade or more of the sick man of Europe, and more pandering to bigotry as a sop for declining standards of living. If SKS continues in his current path, I could see the next Labour government being to the right of the Coalition government. If that becomes the "new centre" then the Tories will be allowed to move further rightwards, and the papers and news media will launder that as acceptable as well. There will come a point where Labour lose popularity, and because of FPTP most people will only ever consider the Tories as the second party of government. So I'm not so optimistic that a rightward drift will consign the Tories to unelectablility...
The other major issue is this: legacy car makers are cynical about EVs. They build EVs converted from their existing products (e.g. EQA from GLA),
That's just MB wringing the last euro out of the MFA2 platform. Their premium products (EQE, EQS) are built on dedicated EV platforms (EVA).
All of the other tier one OEMs now have dedicated EV platforms (BMW: Neue Klasse, VAG: MEB, I can't remember what the Ford and GM ones are called but they exist).
The problem the legacy OEMs don't have is an association between their brand and a degenerate fucc boi.
The other problem the legacy OEMs have is China has timed their entry into the global markets at the time the market is going through a major transition...
We're going to read an awful lot about the terror now being felt in the hearts of millions who are on paper quite affluent. Nice house, daft car on the drive. But they are indebted up to the eyeballs, and the spikes in interest rates mean they could lose the lot.
In reality many will not. But the realisation that they are not only sailing that close to disaster but also utterly powerless will be saluatory. Especially when they see the party they kept voting for not only doing nothing, but blaming THEM for the mess they are in. With a sneer.
I think it will be worse than that. To the point of systemic effects. The car loans business could go sides ways in a big way, for example. And given how profitable it has been, guess who will have been investing in *that*, eh?
The other big one is the commercial property sector - especially the scale of owning chunks of high streets. Under “proper management”, this is leveraged until the pips squeak. If you think housing costs are nuts, meet some shop keepers who will tell you about their rent increases.
The new car business is totally screwed. Just as the pandemic supply chains get back to something approaching normal, there’s going to be a massive drop in demand from those who have become addicted to leasing a new car every three years when interest rates were on the floor. Add to the legislative changes that now push people towards electric cars, and you have a perfect storm of falling demand, especially for the luxury brands.
I was looking at the Mercedes range yesterday to try and get my head around what their strategy is. There is no doubt that they see electrification as a great opportunity to premiumise - e.g. the EQA starts at £52k, the GLA it is the electric version of starts at £37k.
This creates a gulf in the market which all of the new Chinese brands will happily step into. MG have already shown the way (and remember that MG is owned by the Chinese government via SIAC), others like BYD are coming.
I've recorded a video for Tesla's 20th birthday next Saturday, speculating about how the car market will look on their 40th birthday. And my conclusion is that many of the brands we know today will have disappeared, out-maneuvered by Chinese companies who make the cars people want and can afford. The remaining premium brands will have consolidated and retreated into one big blog making only the top end. A Swatch group for cars if you like.
Yes, the Chinese car brands are starting to arrive where I am. Coming in at 2/3 of the price of Korean brands, close to half the price of the Japanese brands. The European brands are nowhere by comparison, except to be seen as luxury goods. It’s going to be a masssive shift, and electrification is going to accelerate that change.
My Volvo S90 was chinese owned and built. My Tesla Model Y is American owned and chinese built. My brother's MG is chinese owned and built. The perception remains that China isn't luxury and won't be able to compete with western monoliths. This is wrong at a base level, and any of the big car company bosses surrounded by yes men saying that are in trouble.
The other major issue is this: legacy car makers are cynical about EVs. They build EVs converted from their existing products (e.g. EQA from GLA), built in the same manner with a gazillion parts arranged in the way their factories are set up to build. So you get an overly-complex but poorly packaged EV which they then charge a large premium for. So many of the new Chinese brands are ground up EVs, built with far fewer parts (copying the Tesla revolution) and thus cheaper and more profitable whilst being better packaged.
The old marques are in trouble.
Not those (like VW) with deep enough pockets. They are building completely new factories and completely new platforms on precisely the same basis.
The number and scale if new production facilities being built in both Europe and the US is astonishing. Not so much here.
VAG are a way off, and spewing out vehicles in the wrong direction. They use a platform called MEB, which still uses the traditional engine under bonnet configuration - which in an EV is a motor / invertor stack. Can't compete on space with the new manufacturers not hobbled by that design ethos.
Perhaps their next platform will try and catch-up. But how far behind will they be, and how much cash will they be spending on changing the entire way they build cars? And thus how successful will they be hawking what is standard kit elsewhere as extras and a pointless service plan?
Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest Brexit tracker poll in partnership with UK in a Changing Europe finds 61% of Britons say they would now vote to join the EU, unchanged from our previous polls in April and in February and the joint-largest number ever to say they would vote to join the EU in our Brexit tracker poll.
Altogether, if a referendum on re-joining the European Union were to take place tomorrow, 61% (–) say they would vote for the UK to join the EU, while 39% (–) say they would vote for the UK to stay out of the EU.
Yes, the idea that Rejoin is not going to be a serious political issue is just not tenable. Brexit is being blamed for a lot of the national malaise, and sooner or later politicians will have to take note of what voters want.
Yes, but not yet. Think of it like a pan of water on a stove. As the temperature rises, not much visibly happens until a critical threshold is passed. Then it boils.
Forty percent united around a "Brexit is in peril- only we will defend it" campaign is a voter slice to fear/covet. Hence the silence. Thirty percent, rather less so. But unless Brexit shocks us all by actually making people's lives better, the polling trend seems likely to continue.
We're going to read an awful lot about the terror now being felt in the hearts of millions who are on paper quite affluent. Nice house, daft car on the drive. But they are indebted up to the eyeballs, and the spikes in interest rates mean they could lose the lot.
In reality many will not. But the realisation that they are not only sailing that close to disaster but also utterly powerless will be saluatory. Especially when they see the party they kept voting for not only doing nothing, but blaming THEM for the mess they are in. With a sneer.
I think it will be worse than that. To the point of systemic effects. The car loans business could go sides ways in a big way, for example. And given how profitable it has been, guess who will have been investing in *that*, eh?
The other big one is the commercial property sector - especially the scale of owning chunks of high streets. Under “proper management”, this is leveraged until the pips squeak. If you think housing costs are nuts, meet some shop keepers who will tell you about their rent increases.
The new car business is totally screwed. Just as the pandemic supply chains get back to something approaching normal, there’s going to be a massive drop in demand from those who have become addicted to leasing a new car every three years when interest rates were on the floor. Add to the legislative changes that now push people towards electric cars, and you have a perfect storm of falling demand, especially for the luxury brands.
I was looking at the Mercedes range yesterday to try and get my head around what their strategy is. There is no doubt that they see electrification as a great opportunity to premiumise - e.g. the EQA starts at £52k, the GLA it is the electric version of starts at £37k.
This creates a gulf in the market which all of the new Chinese brands will happily step into. MG have already shown the way (and remember that MG is owned by the Chinese government via SIAC), others like BYD are coming.
I've recorded a video for Tesla's 20th birthday next Saturday, speculating about how the car market will look on their 40th birthday. And my conclusion is that many of the brands we know today will have disappeared, out-maneuvered by Chinese companies who make the cars people want and can afford. The remaining premium brands will have consolidated and retreated into one big blog making only the top end. A Swatch group for cars if you like.
Yes, the Chinese car brands are starting to arrive where I am. Coming in at 2/3 of the price of Korean brands, close to half the price of the Japanese brands. The European brands are nowhere by comparison, except to be seen as luxury goods. It’s going to be a masssive shift, and electrification is going to accelerate that change.
My Volvo S90 was chinese owned and built. My Tesla Model Y is American owned and chinese built. My brother's MG is chinese owned and built. The perception remains that China isn't luxury and won't be able to compete with western monoliths. This is wrong at a base level, and any of the big car company bosses surrounded by yes men saying that are in trouble.
The other major issue is this: legacy car makers are cynical about EVs. They build EVs converted from their existing products (e.g. EQA from GLA), built in the same manner with a gazillion parts arranged in the way their factories are set up to build. So you get an overly-complex but poorly packaged EV which they then charge a large premium for. So many of the new Chinese brands are ground up EVs, built with far fewer parts (copying the Tesla revolution) and thus cheaper and more profitable whilst being better packaged.
The old marques are in trouble.
An old friend who worked for Tata, for a while, said that being involved in the Tesla tear downs was fascinating. Not just for the insights into Tesla, but also into the ICE automotive mindset faced with EVs.
He is an IT guy, but knows his electronics. He found the ICE trained engineers incredibly dismissive and not interested in electric power train engineering - “Battery and a motor, how hard can that be?”
Sounds like they only understood the positive bits.
Yes, they only even *notice* half the problem.
It could be terminal.
No charge.
PB: The best place to keep up with current affairs.
We're going to read an awful lot about the terror now being felt in the hearts of millions who are on paper quite affluent. Nice house, daft car on the drive. But they are indebted up to the eyeballs, and the spikes in interest rates mean they could lose the lot.
In reality many will not. But the realisation that they are not only sailing that close to disaster but also utterly powerless will be saluatory. Especially when they see the party they kept voting for not only doing nothing, but blaming THEM for the mess they are in. With a sneer.
I think it will be worse than that. To the point of systemic effects. The car loans business could go sides ways in a big way, for example. And given how profitable it has been, guess who will have been investing in *that*, eh?
The other big one is the commercial property sector - especially the scale of owning chunks of high streets. Under “proper management”, this is leveraged until the pips squeak. If you think housing costs are nuts, meet some shop keepers who will tell you about their rent increases.
The new car business is totally screwed. Just as the pandemic supply chains get back to something approaching normal, there’s going to be a massive drop in demand from those who have become addicted to leasing a new car every three years when interest rates were on the floor. Add to the legislative changes that now push people towards electric cars, and you have a perfect storm of falling demand, especially for the luxury brands.
I was looking at the Mercedes range yesterday to try and get my head around what their strategy is. There is no doubt that they see electrification as a great opportunity to premiumise - e.g. the EQA starts at £52k, the GLA it is the electric version of starts at £37k.
This creates a gulf in the market which all of the new Chinese brands will happily step into. MG have already shown the way (and remember that MG is owned by the Chinese government via SIAC), others like BYD are coming.
I've recorded a video for Tesla's 20th birthday next Saturday, speculating about how the car market will look on their 40th birthday. And my conclusion is that many of the brands we know today will have disappeared, out-maneuvered by Chinese companies who make the cars people want and can afford. The remaining premium brands will have consolidated and retreated into one big blog making only the top end. A Swatch group for cars if you like.
Yes, the Chinese car brands are starting to arrive where I am. Coming in at 2/3 of the price of Korean brands, close to half the price of the Japanese brands. The European brands are nowhere by comparison, except to be seen as luxury goods. It’s going to be a masssive shift, and electrification is going to accelerate that change.
My Volvo S90 was chinese owned and built. My Tesla Model Y is American owned and chinese built. My brother's MG is chinese owned and built. The perception remains that China isn't luxury and won't be able to compete with western monoliths. This is wrong at a base level, and any of the big car company bosses surrounded by yes men saying that are in trouble.
The other major issue is this: legacy car makers are cynical about EVs. They build EVs converted from their existing products (e.g. EQA from GLA), built in the same manner with a gazillion parts arranged in the way their factories are set up to build. So you get an overly-complex but poorly packaged EV which they then charge a large premium for. So many of the new Chinese brands are ground up EVs, built with far fewer parts (copying the Tesla revolution) and thus cheaper and more profitable whilst being better packaged.
The old marques are in trouble.
An old friend who worked for Tata, for a while, said that being involved in the Tesla tear downs was fascinating. Not just for the insights into Tesla, but also into the ICE automotive mindset faced with EVs.
He is an IT guy, but knows his electronics. He found the ICE trained engineers incredibly dismissive and not interested in electric power train engineering - “Battery and a motor, how hard can that be?”
I went back to the founder's ethos when they started Tesla. A "car manufacturer which is also a technology company". Born out of frustration that a now long-dead company wasn't interested in scaling their new EV sportscar, Eberhard founded Tesla. And then with Elon Musk on board they set off licensing, refining, and then surpassing the AC Propulsion tech which inspired them.
Now it isn't just that their motor and drivetrain package is leading edge, the way it is packaged and assembled is genuinely industry-changing. Everyone else was building mechanical cars the old way - lots of parts packaged to suit the way the engine needs to be stacked. Tesla's small packaging and now the gigacasting process means they can build a highly efficient (in both energy and space usage) powertrain and use minimal parts. Which means big profits. With new chinese manufacturers copying.
One of the great things about PB is that you can always learn something new about the world.
I can now confidently talk about new developments in car manufacturing to people who know nothing about car manufacturing.
Tesla gets endlessly attacked for various reasons. Musk is mad/bad. EVs are crap and will need a £500k battery swap after 3 years. Teslas are terribly built and are Bad Cars.
Easy talking points for people who need string opinions, regardless of facts. Meanwhile Tesla get on with a genuine revolution in how to design and build cars. Whilst their valuation at multiples of the next biggest car manufacturer is probably overblown, the existential threat to VAG, GM, Mercedes etc is real and growing.
Tesla's Model 3/Y is the 21st century equivalent of the Model T Ford. The car which revolutionised the industry. And however bonkers Musk is, its the blank sheet of paper innovations which drive his businesses. Why do I have to package a car like that? Why do I have to use 150 parts when I can use 5? Why can't we use stainless steel for rockets? Why is the idea of launching a swarm of mini satellites impossibly expensive?
"its the blank sheet of paper innovations which drive his businesses. "
I'd argue that it's constant lying that drives his business. He promises so much stuff, way head of time, that does not materialise. He hypes, and the share price goes up. When he does not deliver, the share price starts trickling down. Then he does more hype and he share price shoots up again. Remember the hundreds of thousands of robotaxis that were going to be on the road in 2020, where the owners would earn more from having them as taxis than the car cost? He's hyping them again now, when his 'autopilot' isn't even the best such system on the market.
So much of Tesla's share price is supported by hype: hype over undeliverable 'autopilot'; hype over robotics; hype over ai. They have down well in delivering basic cars; these 'extensions' to their businesses are worryingly cr@p.
I know this will upset some of the Musk fanbois and the Tesla zealots, but it's not 'Musk-time' - it's lies.
The other major issue is this: legacy car makers are cynical about EVs. They build EVs converted from their existing products (e.g. EQA from GLA),
That's just MB wringing the last euro out of the MFA2 platform. Their premium products (EQE, EQS) are built on dedicated EV platforms (EVA).
All of the other tier one OEMs now have dedicated EV platforms (BMW: Neue Klasse, VAG: MEB, I can't remember what the Ford and GM ones are called but they exist).
The problem the legacy OEMs don't have is an association between their brand and a degenerate fucc boi.
Mercedes will build the superluxury stuff on an EV-only platform. Mass market will use a new platform which is "electric first" but still allows a mechanical drivetrain. Which means space for an engine and gearbox and gas tank etc etc. No different to what they have now.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I hope you're right. It will doom the Tories for a generation. Under PFTP, an ultra right wing Tory party minus sensible centrist Tories stands no chance of being in government.
Depends on the economy. People thought Thatcher was unelectable against Wilson and Callaghan initially until the strikes and high inflation of the late 1970s saw her win in 1979
We're going to read an awful lot about the terror now being felt in the hearts of millions who are on paper quite affluent. Nice house, daft car on the drive. But they are indebted up to the eyeballs, and the spikes in interest rates mean they could lose the lot.
In reality many will not. But the realisation that they are not only sailing that close to disaster but also utterly powerless will be saluatory. Especially when they see the party they kept voting for not only doing nothing, but blaming THEM for the mess they are in. With a sneer.
I think it will be worse than that. To the point of systemic effects. The car loans business could go sides ways in a big way, for example. And given how profitable it has been, guess who will have been investing in *that*, eh?
The other big one is the commercial property sector - especially the scale of owning chunks of high streets. Under “proper management”, this is leveraged until the pips squeak. If you think housing costs are nuts, meet some shop keepers who will tell you about their rent increases.
The new car business is totally screwed. Just as the pandemic supply chains get back to something approaching normal, there’s going to be a massive drop in demand from those who have become addicted to leasing a new car every three years when interest rates were on the floor. Add to the legislative changes that now push people towards electric cars, and you have a perfect storm of falling demand, especially for the luxury brands.
I was looking at the Mercedes range yesterday to try and get my head around what their strategy is. There is no doubt that they see electrification as a great opportunity to premiumise - e.g. the EQA starts at £52k, the GLA it is the electric version of starts at £37k.
This creates a gulf in the market which all of the new Chinese brands will happily step into. MG have already shown the way (and remember that MG is owned by the Chinese government via SIAC), others like BYD are coming.
I've recorded a video for Tesla's 20th birthday next Saturday, speculating about how the car market will look on their 40th birthday. And my conclusion is that many of the brands we know today will have disappeared, out-maneuvered by Chinese companies who make the cars people want and can afford. The remaining premium brands will have consolidated and retreated into one big blog making only the top end. A Swatch group for cars if you like.
Yes, the Chinese car brands are starting to arrive where I am. Coming in at 2/3 of the price of Korean brands, close to half the price of the Japanese brands. The European brands are nowhere by comparison, except to be seen as luxury goods. It’s going to be a masssive shift, and electrification is going to accelerate that change.
My Volvo S90 was chinese owned and built. My Tesla Model Y is American owned and chinese built. My brother's MG is chinese owned and built. The perception remains that China isn't luxury and won't be able to compete with western monoliths. This is wrong at a base level, and any of the big car company bosses surrounded by yes men saying that are in trouble.
The other major issue is this: legacy car makers are cynical about EVs. They build EVs converted from their existing products (e.g. EQA from GLA), built in the same manner with a gazillion parts arranged in the way their factories are set up to build. So you get an overly-complex but poorly packaged EV which they then charge a large premium for. So many of the new Chinese brands are ground up EVs, built with far fewer parts (copying the Tesla revolution) and thus cheaper and more profitable whilst being better packaged.
The old marques are in trouble.
An old friend who worked for Tata, for a while, said that being involved in the Tesla tear downs was fascinating. Not just for the insights into Tesla, but also into the ICE automotive mindset faced with EVs.
He is an IT guy, but knows his electronics. He found the ICE trained engineers incredibly dismissive and not interested in electric power train engineering - “Battery and a motor, how hard can that be?”
I went back to the founder's ethos when they started Tesla. A "car manufacturer which is also a technology company". Born out of frustration that a now long-dead company wasn't interested in scaling their new EV sportscar, Eberhard founded Tesla. And then with Elon Musk on board they set off licensing, refining, and then surpassing the AC Propulsion tech which inspired them.
Now it isn't just that their motor and drivetrain package is leading edge, the way it is packaged and assembled is genuinely industry-changing. Everyone else was building mechanical cars the old way - lots of parts packaged to suit the way the engine needs to be stacked. Tesla's small packaging and now the gigacasting process means they can build a highly efficient (in both energy and space usage) powertrain and use minimal parts. Which means big profits. With new chinese manufacturers copying.
One of the great things about PB is that you can always learn something new about the world.
I can now confidently talk about new developments in car manufacturing to people who know nothing about car manufacturing.
Tesla gets endlessly attacked for various reasons. Musk is mad/bad. EVs are crap and will need a £500k battery swap after 3 years. Teslas are terribly built and are Bad Cars.
Easy talking points for people who need string opinions, regardless of facts. Meanwhile Tesla get on with a genuine revolution in how to design and build cars. Whilst their valuation at multiples of the next biggest car manufacturer is probably overblown, the existential threat to VAG, GM, Mercedes etc is real and growing.
Tesla's Model 3/Y is the 21st century equivalent of the Model T Ford. The car which revolutionised the industry. And however bonkers Musk is, its the blank sheet of paper innovations which drive his businesses. Why do I have to package a car like that? Why do I have to use 150 parts when I can use 5? Why can't we use stainless steel for rockets? Why is the idea of launching a swarm of mini satellites impossibly expensive?
Mate, just want to congratulate you on the YouTube channel. EVs aren't really my thing, but as we don't watch broadcast TV, we tend to just try random content on YouTube, then follow where it leads, and your content is interesting and informative, and well put together (although my son, who edits various YouTubers' content for a living thinks it's "ok", but you ain't no Peter Mckinnon!) I really found the Tesla left hand drive one interesting, and do wonder if other brands might follow suit.
Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest Brexit tracker poll in partnership with UK in a Changing Europe finds 61% of Britons say they would now vote to join the EU, unchanged from our previous polls in April and in February and the joint-largest number ever to say they would vote to join the EU in our Brexit tracker poll.
Altogether, if a referendum on re-joining the European Union were to take place tomorrow, 61% (–) say they would vote for the UK to join the EU, while 39% (–) say they would vote for the UK to stay out of the EU.
Yes, the idea that Rejoin is not going to be a serious political issue is just not tenable. Brexit is being blamed for a lot of the national malaise, and sooner or later politicians will have to take note of what voters want.
Yes, but not yet. Think of it like a pan of water on a stove. As the temperature rises, not much visibly happens until a critical threshold is passed. Then it boils.
Forty percent united around a "Brexit is in peril- only we will defend it" campaign is a voter slice to fear/covet. Hence the silence. Thirty percent, rather less so. But unless Brexit shocks us all by actually making people's lives better, the polling trend seems likely to continue.
Which is why we need a serious conversation about skills, labour markets and immigration. Get that sorted and the last major political block to rejoin goes away.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off swing voters he rallied the Left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right as well as the centrist swing voters
If your party wasn't corrupt, incompetent and dishonest it would have a better chance to keep the right voting Conservative. Instead you have Refuk saying they have to run to ensure a conservative option is on the ballot, and on the other side your voters jumping ship in large numbers to parties seen as less shit.
Johnson is the problem, not the solution. That you can't see this but millions of your former voters can is profoundly funny.
I would argue that Johnson is a symptom, not the cause. The Tory party knew who he was and he was still allowed to be in charge because they thought (correctly for a time) that he was a winner. The Tory Party since Cameron have really been a balancing act of preserving the Tory coalition of "moderate sensibles", pensioners and culture war zealots. The coalition allowed Cameron to blame everything "wet" on the LDs with the zealots and claim victory for it with the "sensibles" so more typical centrist voters gave him a majority when he probably would have been fine with another coalition. Since then party cohesion and power has always been the priority over governing. The referendum, May, May's early election, the deal with the DUP, Johnson and Truss - each step looking madder than the last until we get here, all to appease hard liners who will never be satisfied because what they really want to roll back is the half of modernity that doesn't line their pockets.
The fact that people like HYUFD here has, over the last few weeks, essentially said if you're not a god fearing Christian who believes marriage is only between a man and a woman and have the same social and economic attitudes of a Victorian aristocrat you're not a "true Conservative" shows you how mad they've gone. Everyone is a secret lefty Marxist - even Johnson was too lefty for some with his willingness to say he wanted to increase spending on infrastructure; the horror!
Nah, HYUFD is not a Conservative (and I am not kidding) in the true sense. He has thrown his lot in with the Johnson populists. It is a cult, a political mirror to Corbynism. It isn't about policy, or even ideology it is about the cult of personality, just as it is with Trump. I am not quite sure how HY manages to square his religious conviction with supporting the most amoral person ever to have been in Downing street, but I have to sadly conclude, that as with so many of Johnson's apologists he is really not very bright, which is why the Johnson cult will be seen in retrospect as a Conservative aberration.
I am sure most Tory haters on here hope that this is the final implosion of the Conservative Party. I think they will be disappointed. If SKS turns out to be a Great Disappointment as PM then a Conservative Party under someone more charismatic such as Kemi or Penny Mordaunt could easily reinvent and be back in power, and SKS will be a one-term wonder.
Cue howls of outrage from those who so don't want this to be so, but know it is a real possibility.
The other major issue is this: legacy car makers are cynical about EVs. They build EVs converted from their existing products (e.g. EQA from GLA),
That's just MB wringing the last euro out of the MFA2 platform. Their premium products (EQE, EQS) are built on dedicated EV platforms (EVA).
All of the other tier one OEMs now have dedicated EV platforms (BMW: Neue Klasse, VAG: MEB, I can't remember what the Ford and GM ones are called but they exist).
The problem the legacy OEMs don't have is an association between their brand and a degenerate fucc boi.
The other problem the legacy OEMs have is China has timed their entry into the global markets at the time the market is going through a major transition...
It would be closer to £15k in the UK, because of taxes and dealer markups, but this is what we are now dealing with from China.
I assume that there will be a reason found for it to be non-compliant with European safety regulations, to prevent them being sold in the West, but there’s one hell of a trade war coming over Chinese cars.
We're going to read an awful lot about the terror now being felt in the hearts of millions who are on paper quite affluent. Nice house, daft car on the drive. But they are indebted up to the eyeballs, and the spikes in interest rates mean they could lose the lot.
In reality many will not. But the realisation that they are not only sailing that close to disaster but also utterly powerless will be saluatory. Especially when they see the party they kept voting for not only doing nothing, but blaming THEM for the mess they are in. With a sneer.
I think it will be worse than that. To the point of systemic effects. The car loans business could go sides ways in a big way, for example. And given how profitable it has been, guess who will have been investing in *that*, eh?
The other big one is the commercial property sector - especially the scale of owning chunks of high streets. Under “proper management”, this is leveraged until the pips squeak. If you think housing costs are nuts, meet some shop keepers who will tell you about their rent increases.
The new car business is totally screwed. Just as the pandemic supply chains get back to something approaching normal, there’s going to be a massive drop in demand from those who have become addicted to leasing a new car every three years when interest rates were on the floor. Add to the legislative changes that now push people towards electric cars, and you have a perfect storm of falling demand, especially for the luxury brands.
I was looking at the Mercedes range yesterday to try and get my head around what their strategy is. There is no doubt that they see electrification as a great opportunity to premiumise - e.g. the EQA starts at £52k, the GLA it is the electric version of starts at £37k.
This creates a gulf in the market which all of the new Chinese brands will happily step into. MG have already shown the way (and remember that MG is owned by the Chinese government via SIAC), others like BYD are coming.
I've recorded a video for Tesla's 20th birthday next Saturday, speculating about how the car market will look on their 40th birthday. And my conclusion is that many of the brands we know today will have disappeared, out-maneuvered by Chinese companies who make the cars people want and can afford. The remaining premium brands will have consolidated and retreated into one big blog making only the top end. A Swatch group for cars if you like.
Yes, the Chinese car brands are starting to arrive where I am. Coming in at 2/3 of the price of Korean brands, close to half the price of the Japanese brands. The European brands are nowhere by comparison, except to be seen as luxury goods. It’s going to be a masssive shift, and electrification is going to accelerate that change.
My Volvo S90 was chinese owned and built. My Tesla Model Y is American owned and chinese built. My brother's MG is chinese owned and built. The perception remains that China isn't luxury and won't be able to compete with western monoliths. This is wrong at a base level, and any of the big car company bosses surrounded by yes men saying that are in trouble.
The other major issue is this: legacy car makers are cynical about EVs. They build EVs converted from their existing products (e.g. EQA from GLA), built in the same manner with a gazillion parts arranged in the way their factories are set up to build. So you get an overly-complex but poorly packaged EV which they then charge a large premium for. So many of the new Chinese brands are ground up EVs, built with far fewer parts (copying the Tesla revolution) and thus cheaper and more profitable whilst being better packaged.
The old marques are in trouble.
Not those (like VW) with deep enough pockets. They are building completely new factories and completely new platforms on precisely the same basis.
The number and scale if new production facilities being built in both Europe and the US is astonishing. Not so much here.
VAG are a way off, and spewing out vehicles in the wrong direction. They use a platform called MEB, which still uses the traditional engine under bonnet configuration - which in an EV is a motor / invertor stack. Can't compete on space with the new manufacturers not hobbled by that design ethos.
Perhaps their next platform will try and catch-up. But how far behind will they be, and how much cash will they be spending on changing the entire way they build cars? And thus how successful will they be hawking what is standard kit elsewhere as extras and a pointless service plan?
My own view, based on nothing more than a WAG: current EVs are just an intermediate step in the disruption of the new car industry. Current EVs are imperfect - notably in terms of range, charge times and cost - and within five years there will be another step-change. Whether that's new battery chemistries with better energy densities / charge times; hydrogen (I know...); or something else, I don't know. But the current EVs are far from being a 'perfect' solution, except for the well-off.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off swing voters he rallied the Left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right as well as the centrist swing voters
If your party wasn't corrupt, incompetent and dishonest it would have a better chance to keep the right voting Conservative. Instead you have Refuk saying they have to run to ensure a conservative option is on the ballot, and on the other side your voters jumping ship in large numbers to parties seen as less shit.
Johnson is the problem, not the solution. That you can't see this but millions of your former voters can is profoundly funny.
I would argue that Johnson is a symptom, not the cause. The Tory party knew who he was and he was still allowed to be in charge because they thought (correctly for a time) that he was a winner. The Tory Party since Cameron have really been a balancing act of preserving the Tory coalition of "moderate sensibles", pensioners and culture war zealots. The coalition allowed Cameron to blame everything "wet" on the LDs with the zealots and claim victory for it with the "sensibles" so more typical centrist voters gave him a majority when he probably would have been fine with another coalition. Since then party cohesion and power has always been the priority over governing. The referendum, May, May's early election, the deal with the DUP, Johnson and Truss - each step looking madder than the last until we get here, all to appease hard liners who will never be satisfied because what they really want to roll back is the half of modernity that doesn't line their pockets.
The fact that people like HYUFD here has, over the last few weeks, essentially said if you're not a god fearing Christian who believes marriage is only between a man and a woman and have the same social and economic attitudes of a Victorian aristocrat you're not a "true Conservative" shows you how mad they've gone. Everyone is a secret lefty Marxist - even Johnson was too lefty for some with his willingness to say he wanted to increase spending on infrastructure; the horror!
I am not opposed to homosexual marriage in civil law, nor is the Conservative Party now
We're going to read an awful lot about the terror now being felt in the hearts of millions who are on paper quite affluent. Nice house, daft car on the drive. But they are indebted up to the eyeballs, and the spikes in interest rates mean they could lose the lot.
In reality many will not. But the realisation that they are not only sailing that close to disaster but also utterly powerless will be saluatory. Especially when they see the party they kept voting for not only doing nothing, but blaming THEM for the mess they are in. With a sneer.
I think it will be worse than that. To the point of systemic effects. The car loans business could go sides ways in a big way, for example. And given how profitable it has been, guess who will have been investing in *that*, eh?
The other big one is the commercial property sector - especially the scale of owning chunks of high streets. Under “proper management”, this is leveraged until the pips squeak. If you think housing costs are nuts, meet some shop keepers who will tell you about their rent increases.
The new car business is totally screwed. Just as the pandemic supply chains get back to something approaching normal, there’s going to be a massive drop in demand from those who have become addicted to leasing a new car every three years when interest rates were on the floor. Add to the legislative changes that now push people towards electric cars, and you have a perfect storm of falling demand, especially for the luxury brands.
I was looking at the Mercedes range yesterday to try and get my head around what their strategy is. There is no doubt that they see electrification as a great opportunity to premiumise - e.g. the EQA starts at £52k, the GLA it is the electric version of starts at £37k.
This creates a gulf in the market which all of the new Chinese brands will happily step into. MG have already shown the way (and remember that MG is owned by the Chinese government via SIAC), others like BYD are coming.
I've recorded a video for Tesla's 20th birthday next Saturday, speculating about how the car market will look on their 40th birthday. And my conclusion is that many of the brands we know today will have disappeared, out-maneuvered by Chinese companies who make the cars people want and can afford. The remaining premium brands will have consolidated and retreated into one big blog making only the top end. A Swatch group for cars if you like.
Yes, the Chinese car brands are starting to arrive where I am. Coming in at 2/3 of the price of Korean brands, close to half the price of the Japanese brands. The European brands are nowhere by comparison, except to be seen as luxury goods. It’s going to be a masssive shift, and electrification is going to accelerate that change.
My Volvo S90 was chinese owned and built. My Tesla Model Y is American owned and chinese built. My brother's MG is chinese owned and built. The perception remains that China isn't luxury and won't be able to compete with western monoliths. This is wrong at a base level, and any of the big car company bosses surrounded by yes men saying that are in trouble.
The other major issue is this: legacy car makers are cynical about EVs. They build EVs converted from their existing products (e.g. EQA from GLA), built in the same manner with a gazillion parts arranged in the way their factories are set up to build. So you get an overly-complex but poorly packaged EV which they then charge a large premium for. So many of the new Chinese brands are ground up EVs, built with far fewer parts (copying the Tesla revolution) and thus cheaper and more profitable whilst being better packaged.
The old marques are in trouble.
An old friend who worked for Tata, for a while, said that being involved in the Tesla tear downs was fascinating. Not just for the insights into Tesla, but also into the ICE automotive mindset faced with EVs.
He is an IT guy, but knows his electronics. He found the ICE trained engineers incredibly dismissive and not interested in electric power train engineering - “Battery and a motor, how hard can that be?”
I went back to the founder's ethos when they started Tesla. A "car manufacturer which is also a technology company". Born out of frustration that a now long-dead company wasn't interested in scaling their new EV sportscar, Eberhard founded Tesla. And then with Elon Musk on board they set off licensing, refining, and then surpassing the AC Propulsion tech which inspired them.
Now it isn't just that their motor and drivetrain package is leading edge, the way it is packaged and assembled is genuinely industry-changing. Everyone else was building mechanical cars the old way - lots of parts packaged to suit the way the engine needs to be stacked. Tesla's small packaging and now the gigacasting process means they can build a highly efficient (in both energy and space usage) powertrain and use minimal parts. Which means big profits. With new chinese manufacturers copying.
One of the great things about PB is that you can always learn something new about the world.
I can now confidently talk about new developments in car manufacturing to people who know nothing about car manufacturing.
Tesla gets endlessly attacked for various reasons. Musk is mad/bad. EVs are crap and will need a £500k battery swap after 3 years. Teslas are terribly built and are Bad Cars.
Easy talking points for people who need string opinions, regardless of facts. Meanwhile Tesla get on with a genuine revolution in how to design and build cars. Whilst their valuation at multiples of the next biggest car manufacturer is probably overblown, the existential threat to VAG, GM, Mercedes etc is real and growing.
Tesla's Model 3/Y is the 21st century equivalent of the Model T Ford. The car which revolutionised the industry. And however bonkers Musk is, its the blank sheet of paper innovations which drive his businesses. Why do I have to package a car like that? Why do I have to use 150 parts when I can use 5? Why can't we use stainless steel for rockets? Why is the idea of launching a swarm of mini satellites impossibly expensive?
"its the blank sheet of paper innovations which drive his businesses. "
I'd argue that it's constant lying that drives his business. He promises so much stuff, way head of time, that does not materialise. He hypes, and the share price goes up. When he does not deliver, the share price starts trickling down. Then he does more hype and he share price shoots up again. Remember the hundreds of thousands of robotaxis that were going to be on the road in 2020, where the owners would earn more from having them as taxis than the car cost? He's hyping them again now, when his 'autopilot' isn't even the best such system on the market.
So much of Tesla's share price is supported by hype: hype over undeliverable 'autopilot'; hype over robotics; hype over ai. They have down well in delivering basic cars; these 'extensions' to their businesses are worryingly cr@p.
I know this will upset some of the Musk fanbois and the Tesla zealots, but it's not 'Musk-time' - it's lies.
Fantasies, more than lies. They're struggling to get the AI platform to deliver full autonomy, but even if it could the authorities will ban it. We have this already enacted in Europe. "Full Self Driving" continues to make strides forward in the US. But is banned in Europe, so unless a regulatory change of direction occurs we're not getting it.
I have some genuine concerns about the way forward with autonomous vehicles anyway - I am more interested in making great cars that people can drive than one where it drives itself and becomes self-aware, setting off on a "kill all the humans" rampage.
So yes, hype / fantasies / lies drives the share price. You know what else drives the share price? Tesla's profits per vehicle compared to the legacy manufacturers. The blank sheet of paper approach means cars using gigacastings instead of individual parts make a lot more money. And as the best-selling car in the world is also mega-profitable, *that* is the real threat.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I'm pretty confident of two things. First is that the Conservatives will respond to defeat by moving further to the right. Second is that it won't go well for them. Partly because votes gained on the right will be netted out by votes lost on the left. But also becuase, however right wing the Conservatives go, the proper populists will always be able to go a bit further.
My concern is just how right wing Labour are willing to go. The new austerity of SKSs "fiscal rules" will mean another lost generation, another decade or more of the sick man of Europe, and more pandering to bigotry as a sop for declining standards of living. If SKS continues in his current path, I could see the next Labour government being to the right of the Coalition government. If that becomes the "new centre" then the Tories will be allowed to move further rightwards, and the papers and news media will launder that as acceptable as well. There will come a point where Labour lose popularity, and because of FPTP most people will only ever consider the Tories as the second party of government. So I'm not so optimistic that a rightward drift will consign the Tories to unelectablility...
If Starmer moves further to the right, the Lib Dems will fill the gap on his left i.e. the Centre, with pragmatic, non ideological policies.
The Tories are increasingly authoritarian. Labour have always treated electors as children. Only the Lib Dems treat electors as adults, and will appeal to the many people who want to be respected as individuals who can think for themselves.
We're going to read an awful lot about the terror now being felt in the hearts of millions who are on paper quite affluent. Nice house, daft car on the drive. But they are indebted up to the eyeballs, and the spikes in interest rates mean they could lose the lot.
In reality many will not. But the realisation that they are not only sailing that close to disaster but also utterly powerless will be saluatory. Especially when they see the party they kept voting for not only doing nothing, but blaming THEM for the mess they are in. With a sneer.
I think it will be worse than that. To the point of systemic effects. The car loans business could go sides ways in a big way, for example. And given how profitable it has been, guess who will have been investing in *that*, eh?
The other big one is the commercial property sector - especially the scale of owning chunks of high streets. Under “proper management”, this is leveraged until the pips squeak. If you think housing costs are nuts, meet some shop keepers who will tell you about their rent increases.
The new car business is totally screwed. Just as the pandemic supply chains get back to something approaching normal, there’s going to be a massive drop in demand from those who have become addicted to leasing a new car every three years when interest rates were on the floor. Add to the legislative changes that now push people towards electric cars, and you have a perfect storm of falling demand, especially for the luxury brands.
I was looking at the Mercedes range yesterday to try and get my head around what their strategy is. There is no doubt that they see electrification as a great opportunity to premiumise - e.g. the EQA starts at £52k, the GLA it is the electric version of starts at £37k.
This creates a gulf in the market which all of the new Chinese brands will happily step into. MG have already shown the way (and remember that MG is owned by the Chinese government via SIAC), others like BYD are coming.
I've recorded a video for Tesla's 20th birthday next Saturday, speculating about how the car market will look on their 40th birthday. And my conclusion is that many of the brands we know today will have disappeared, out-maneuvered by Chinese companies who make the cars people want and can afford. The remaining premium brands will have consolidated and retreated into one big blog making only the top end. A Swatch group for cars if you like.
Yes, the Chinese car brands are starting to arrive where I am. Coming in at 2/3 of the price of Korean brands, close to half the price of the Japanese brands. The European brands are nowhere by comparison, except to be seen as luxury goods. It’s going to be a masssive shift, and electrification is going to accelerate that change.
My Volvo S90 was chinese owned and built. My Tesla Model Y is American owned and chinese built. My brother's MG is chinese owned and built. The perception remains that China isn't luxury and won't be able to compete with western monoliths. This is wrong at a base level, and any of the big car company bosses surrounded by yes men saying that are in trouble.
The other major issue is this: legacy car makers are cynical about EVs. They build EVs converted from their existing products (e.g. EQA from GLA), built in the same manner with a gazillion parts arranged in the way their factories are set up to build. So you get an overly-complex but poorly packaged EV which they then charge a large premium for. So many of the new Chinese brands are ground up EVs, built with far fewer parts (copying the Tesla revolution) and thus cheaper and more profitable whilst being better packaged.
The old marques are in trouble.
An old friend who worked for Tata, for a while, said that being involved in the Tesla tear downs was fascinating. Not just for the insights into Tesla, but also into the ICE automotive mindset faced with EVs.
He is an IT guy, but knows his electronics. He found the ICE trained engineers incredibly dismissive and not interested in electric power train engineering - “Battery and a motor, how hard can that be?”
I went back to the founder's ethos when they started Tesla. A "car manufacturer which is also a technology company". Born out of frustration that a now long-dead company wasn't interested in scaling their new EV sportscar, Eberhard founded Tesla. And then with Elon Musk on board they set off licensing, refining, and then surpassing the AC Propulsion tech which inspired them.
Now it isn't just that their motor and drivetrain package is leading edge, the way it is packaged and assembled is genuinely industry-changing. Everyone else was building mechanical cars the old way - lots of parts packaged to suit the way the engine needs to be stacked. Tesla's small packaging and now the gigacasting process means they can build a highly efficient (in both energy and space usage) powertrain and use minimal parts. Which means big profits. With new chinese manufacturers copying.
One of the great things about PB is that you can always learn something new about the world.
I can now confidently talk about new developments in car manufacturing to people who know nothing about car manufacturing.
Tesla gets endlessly attacked for various reasons. Musk is mad/bad. EVs are crap and will need a £500k battery swap after 3 years. Teslas are terribly built and are Bad Cars.
Easy talking points for people who need string opinions, regardless of facts. Meanwhile Tesla get on with a genuine revolution in how to design and build cars. Whilst their valuation at multiples of the next biggest car manufacturer is probably overblown, the existential threat to VAG, GM, Mercedes etc is real and growing.
Tesla's Model 3/Y is the 21st century equivalent of the Model T Ford. The car which revolutionised the industry. And however bonkers Musk is, its the blank sheet of paper innovations which drive his businesses. Why do I have to package a car like that? Why do I have to use 150 parts when I can use 5? Why can't we use stainless steel for rockets? Why is the idea of launching a swarm of mini satellites impossibly expensive?
"its the blank sheet of paper innovations which drive his businesses. "
I'd argue that it's constant lying that drives his business. He promises so much stuff, way head of time, that does not materialise. He hypes, and the share price goes up. When he does not deliver, the share price starts trickling down. Then he does more hype and he share price shoots up again. Remember the hundreds of thousands of robotaxis that were going to be on the road in 2020, where the owners would earn more from having them as taxis than the car cost? He's hyping them again now, when his 'autopilot' isn't even the best such system on the market.
So much of Tesla's share price is supported by hype: hype over undeliverable 'autopilot'; hype over robotics; hype over ai. They have down well in delivering basic cars; these 'extensions' to their businesses are worryingly cr@p.
I know this will upset some of the Musk fanbois and the Tesla zealots, but it's not 'Musk-time' - it's lies.
He's repeatedly said Tesla's stock price is overvalued. It's not his fault noone listens to what he actually says.
We're going to read an awful lot about the terror now being felt in the hearts of millions who are on paper quite affluent. Nice house, daft car on the drive. But they are indebted up to the eyeballs, and the spikes in interest rates mean they could lose the lot.
In reality many will not. But the realisation that they are not only sailing that close to disaster but also utterly powerless will be saluatory. Especially when they see the party they kept voting for not only doing nothing, but blaming THEM for the mess they are in. With a sneer.
I think it will be worse than that. To the point of systemic effects. The car loans business could go sides ways in a big way, for example. And given how profitable it has been, guess who will have been investing in *that*, eh?
The other big one is the commercial property sector - especially the scale of owning chunks of high streets. Under “proper management”, this is leveraged until the pips squeak. If you think housing costs are nuts, meet some shop keepers who will tell you about their rent increases.
The new car business is totally screwed. Just as the pandemic supply chains get back to something approaching normal, there’s going to be a massive drop in demand from those who have become addicted to leasing a new car every three years when interest rates were on the floor. Add to the legislative changes that now push people towards electric cars, and you have a perfect storm of falling demand, especially for the luxury brands.
I was looking at the Mercedes range yesterday to try and get my head around what their strategy is. There is no doubt that they see electrification as a great opportunity to premiumise - e.g. the EQA starts at £52k, the GLA it is the electric version of starts at £37k.
This creates a gulf in the market which all of the new Chinese brands will happily step into. MG have already shown the way (and remember that MG is owned by the Chinese government via SIAC), others like BYD are coming.
I've recorded a video for Tesla's 20th birthday next Saturday, speculating about how the car market will look on their 40th birthday. And my conclusion is that many of the brands we know today will have disappeared, out-maneuvered by Chinese companies who make the cars people want and can afford. The remaining premium brands will have consolidated and retreated into one big blog making only the top end. A Swatch group for cars if you like.
Yes, the Chinese car brands are starting to arrive where I am. Coming in at 2/3 of the price of Korean brands, close to half the price of the Japanese brands. The European brands are nowhere by comparison, except to be seen as luxury goods. It’s going to be a masssive shift, and electrification is going to accelerate that change.
My Volvo S90 was chinese owned and built. My Tesla Model Y is American owned and chinese built. My brother's MG is chinese owned and built. The perception remains that China isn't luxury and won't be able to compete with western monoliths. This is wrong at a base level, and any of the big car company bosses surrounded by yes men saying that are in trouble.
The other major issue is this: legacy car makers are cynical about EVs. They build EVs converted from their existing products (e.g. EQA from GLA), built in the same manner with a gazillion parts arranged in the way their factories are set up to build. So you get an overly-complex but poorly packaged EV which they then charge a large premium for. So many of the new Chinese brands are ground up EVs, built with far fewer parts (copying the Tesla revolution) and thus cheaper and more profitable whilst being better packaged.
The old marques are in trouble.
An old friend who worked for Tata, for a while, said that being involved in the Tesla tear downs was fascinating. Not just for the insights into Tesla, but also into the ICE automotive mindset faced with EVs.
He is an IT guy, but knows his electronics. He found the ICE trained engineers incredibly dismissive and not interested in electric power train engineering - “Battery and a motor, how hard can that be?”
I went back to the founder's ethos when they started Tesla. A "car manufacturer which is also a technology company". Born out of frustration that a now long-dead company wasn't interested in scaling their new EV sportscar, Eberhard founded Tesla. And then with Elon Musk on board they set off licensing, refining, and then surpassing the AC Propulsion tech which inspired them.
Now it isn't just that their motor and drivetrain package is leading edge, the way it is packaged and assembled is genuinely industry-changing. Everyone else was building mechanical cars the old way - lots of parts packaged to suit the way the engine needs to be stacked. Tesla's small packaging and now the gigacasting process means they can build a highly efficient (in both energy and space usage) powertrain and use minimal parts. Which means big profits. With new chinese manufacturers copying.
One of the great things about PB is that you can always learn something new about the world.
I can now confidently talk about new developments in car manufacturing to people who know nothing about car manufacturing.
Tesla gets endlessly attacked for various reasons. Musk is mad/bad. EVs are crap and will need a £500k battery swap after 3 years. Teslas are terribly built and are Bad Cars.
Easy talking points for people who need string opinions, regardless of facts. Meanwhile Tesla get on with a genuine revolution in how to design and build cars. Whilst their valuation at multiples of the next biggest car manufacturer is probably overblown, the existential threat to VAG, GM, Mercedes etc is real and growing.
Tesla's Model 3/Y is the 21st century equivalent of the Model T Ford. The car which revolutionised the industry. And however bonkers Musk is, its the blank sheet of paper innovations which drive his businesses. Why do I have to package a car like that? Why do I have to use 150 parts when I can use 5? Why can't we use stainless steel for rockets? Why is the idea of launching a swarm of mini satellites impossibly expensive?
Mate, just want to congratulate you on the YouTube channel. EVs aren't really my thing, but as we don't watch broadcast TV, we tend to just try random content on YouTube, then follow where it leads, and your content is interesting and informative, and well put together (although my son, who edits various YouTubers' content for a living thinks it's "ok", but you ain't no Peter Mckinnon!) I really found the Tesla left hand drive one interesting, and do wonder if other brands might follow suit.
Thanks! I could improve a lot about my videos. More time and more money for better production kit would help! Have found that some of the stuff that I think works best was literally "ooh thats an idea", shot very quickly with minimal edits, upload and go. Like that video you mention. Better than weeks stuck in editing hell as some of them have been. Am currently producing and uploading a bank of content to cover July as I will have zero time for YouTube. Shot 5 in a day yesterday, all different...
We're going to read an awful lot about the terror now being felt in the hearts of millions who are on paper quite affluent. Nice house, daft car on the drive. But they are indebted up to the eyeballs, and the spikes in interest rates mean they could lose the lot.
In reality many will not. But the realisation that they are not only sailing that close to disaster but also utterly powerless will be saluatory. Especially when they see the party they kept voting for not only doing nothing, but blaming THEM for the mess they are in. With a sneer.
I think it will be worse than that. To the point of systemic effects. The car loans business could go sides ways in a big way, for example. And given how profitable it has been, guess who will have been investing in *that*, eh?
The other big one is the commercial property sector - especially the scale of owning chunks of high streets. Under “proper management”, this is leveraged until the pips squeak. If you think housing costs are nuts, meet some shop keepers who will tell you about their rent increases.
The new car business is totally screwed. Just as the pandemic supply chains get back to something approaching normal, there’s going to be a massive drop in demand from those who have become addicted to leasing a new car every three years when interest rates were on the floor. Add to the legislative changes that now push people towards electric cars, and you have a perfect storm of falling demand, especially for the luxury brands.
I was looking at the Mercedes range yesterday to try and get my head around what their strategy is. There is no doubt that they see electrification as a great opportunity to premiumise - e.g. the EQA starts at £52k, the GLA it is the electric version of starts at £37k.
This creates a gulf in the market which all of the new Chinese brands will happily step into. MG have already shown the way (and remember that MG is owned by the Chinese government via SIAC), others like BYD are coming.
I've recorded a video for Tesla's 20th birthday next Saturday, speculating about how the car market will look on their 40th birthday. And my conclusion is that many of the brands we know today will have disappeared, out-maneuvered by Chinese companies who make the cars people want and can afford. The remaining premium brands will have consolidated and retreated into one big blog making only the top end. A Swatch group for cars if you like.
Yes, the Chinese car brands are starting to arrive where I am. Coming in at 2/3 of the price of Korean brands, close to half the price of the Japanese brands. The European brands are nowhere by comparison, except to be seen as luxury goods. It’s going to be a masssive shift, and electrification is going to accelerate that change.
My Volvo S90 was chinese owned and built. My Tesla Model Y is American owned and chinese built. My brother's MG is chinese owned and built. The perception remains that China isn't luxury and won't be able to compete with western monoliths. This is wrong at a base level, and any of the big car company bosses surrounded by yes men saying that are in trouble.
The other major issue is this: legacy car makers are cynical about EVs. They build EVs converted from their existing products (e.g. EQA from GLA), built in the same manner with a gazillion parts arranged in the way their factories are set up to build. So you get an overly-complex but poorly packaged EV which they then charge a large premium for. So many of the new Chinese brands are ground up EVs, built with far fewer parts (copying the Tesla revolution) and thus cheaper and more profitable whilst being better packaged.
The old marques are in trouble.
An old friend who worked for Tata, for a while, said that being involved in the Tesla tear downs was fascinating. Not just for the insights into Tesla, but also into the ICE automotive mindset faced with EVs.
He is an IT guy, but knows his electronics. He found the ICE trained engineers incredibly dismissive and not interested in electric power train engineering - “Battery and a motor, how hard can that be?”
I went back to the founder's ethos when they started Tesla. A "car manufacturer which is also a technology company". Born out of frustration that a now long-dead company wasn't interested in scaling their new EV sportscar, Eberhard founded Tesla. And then with Elon Musk on board they set off licensing, refining, and then surpassing the AC Propulsion tech which inspired them.
Now it isn't just that their motor and drivetrain package is leading edge, the way it is packaged and assembled is genuinely industry-changing. Everyone else was building mechanical cars the old way - lots of parts packaged to suit the way the engine needs to be stacked. Tesla's small packaging and now the gigacasting process means they can build a highly efficient (in both energy and space usage) powertrain and use minimal parts. Which means big profits. With new chinese manufacturers copying.
One of the great things about PB is that you can always learn something new about the world.
I can now confidently talk about new developments in car manufacturing to people who know nothing about car manufacturing.
Tesla gets endlessly attacked for various reasons. Musk is mad/bad. EVs are crap and will need a £500k battery swap after 3 years. Teslas are terribly built and are Bad Cars.
Easy talking points for people who need string opinions, regardless of facts. Meanwhile Tesla get on with a genuine revolution in how to design and build cars. Whilst their valuation at multiples of the next biggest car manufacturer is probably overblown, the existential threat to VAG, GM, Mercedes etc is real and growing.
Tesla's Model 3/Y is the 21st century equivalent of the Model T Ford. The car which revolutionised the industry. And however bonkers Musk is, its the blank sheet of paper innovations which drive his businesses. Why do I have to package a car like that? Why do I have to use 150 parts when I can use 5? Why can't we use stainless steel for rockets? Why is the idea of launching a swarm of mini satellites impossibly expensive?
"its the blank sheet of paper innovations which drive his businesses. "
I'd argue that it's constant lying that drives his business. He promises so much stuff, way head of time, that does not materialise. He hypes, and the share price goes up. When he does not deliver, the share price starts trickling down. Then he does more hype and he share price shoots up again. Remember the hundreds of thousands of robotaxis that were going to be on the road in 2020, where the owners would earn more from having them as taxis than the car cost? He's hyping them again now, when his 'autopilot' isn't even the best such system on the market.
So much of Tesla's share price is supported by hype: hype over undeliverable 'autopilot'; hype over robotics; hype over ai. They have down well in delivering basic cars; these 'extensions' to their businesses are worryingly cr@p.
I know this will upset some of the Musk fanbois and the Tesla zealots, but it's not 'Musk-time' - it's lies.
Fantasies, more than lies. They're struggling to get the AI platform to deliver full autonomy, but even if it could the authorities will ban it. We have this already enacted in Europe. "Full Self Driving" continues to make strides forward in the US. But is banned in Europe, so unless a regulatory change of direction occurs we're not getting it.
I have some genuine concerns about the way forward with autonomous vehicles anyway - I am more interested in making great cars that people can drive than one where it drives itself and becomes self-aware, setting off on a "kill all the humans" rampage.
So yes, hype / fantasies / lies drives the share price. You know what else drives the share price? Tesla's profits per vehicle compared to the legacy manufacturers. The blank sheet of paper approach means cars using gigacastings instead of individual parts make a lot more money. And as the best-selling car in the world is also mega-profitable, *that* is the real threat.
One feeds into the other.
And it's not just autpilot; it's the AI and robotics stuff. Although not Tesla, the Hyperloop stuff (allegedly only done to try to stop US high-speed rail). The Boring Company. Starship and SuperHeavy. Of those, only SS/SH stands a chance of coming anywhere near his promises - and that includes Autopilot. I'm becoming increasingly bearish about SS/SH as well...
Musk lies. And he's becoming increasingly involved in politics as well. I don't see him - or his companies - in any positive light. Even SpaceX is becoming tarnished.
We're going to read an awful lot about the terror now being felt in the hearts of millions who are on paper quite affluent. Nice house, daft car on the drive. But they are indebted up to the eyeballs, and the spikes in interest rates mean they could lose the lot.
In reality many will not. But the realisation that they are not only sailing that close to disaster but also utterly powerless will be saluatory. Especially when they see the party they kept voting for not only doing nothing, but blaming THEM for the mess they are in. With a sneer.
I think it will be worse than that. To the point of systemic effects. The car loans business could go sides ways in a big way, for example. And given how profitable it has been, guess who will have been investing in *that*, eh?
The other big one is the commercial property sector - especially the scale of owning chunks of high streets. Under “proper management”, this is leveraged until the pips squeak. If you think housing costs are nuts, meet some shop keepers who will tell you about their rent increases.
The new car business is totally screwed. Just as the pandemic supply chains get back to something approaching normal, there’s going to be a massive drop in demand from those who have become addicted to leasing a new car every three years when interest rates were on the floor. Add to the legislative changes that now push people towards electric cars, and you have a perfect storm of falling demand, especially for the luxury brands.
I was looking at the Mercedes range yesterday to try and get my head around what their strategy is. There is no doubt that they see electrification as a great opportunity to premiumise - e.g. the EQA starts at £52k, the GLA it is the electric version of starts at £37k.
This creates a gulf in the market which all of the new Chinese brands will happily step into. MG have already shown the way (and remember that MG is owned by the Chinese government via SIAC), others like BYD are coming.
I've recorded a video for Tesla's 20th birthday next Saturday, speculating about how the car market will look on their 40th birthday. And my conclusion is that many of the brands we know today will have disappeared, out-maneuvered by Chinese companies who make the cars people want and can afford. The remaining premium brands will have consolidated and retreated into one big blog making only the top end. A Swatch group for cars if you like.
Yes, the Chinese car brands are starting to arrive where I am. Coming in at 2/3 of the price of Korean brands, close to half the price of the Japanese brands. The European brands are nowhere by comparison, except to be seen as luxury goods. It’s going to be a masssive shift, and electrification is going to accelerate that change.
My Volvo S90 was chinese owned and built. My Tesla Model Y is American owned and chinese built. My brother's MG is chinese owned and built. The perception remains that China isn't luxury and won't be able to compete with western monoliths. This is wrong at a base level, and any of the big car company bosses surrounded by yes men saying that are in trouble.
The other major issue is this: legacy car makers are cynical about EVs. They build EVs converted from their existing products (e.g. EQA from GLA), built in the same manner with a gazillion parts arranged in the way their factories are set up to build. So you get an overly-complex but poorly packaged EV which they then charge a large premium for. So many of the new Chinese brands are ground up EVs, built with far fewer parts (copying the Tesla revolution) and thus cheaper and more profitable whilst being better packaged.
The old marques are in trouble.
An old friend who worked for Tata, for a while, said that being involved in the Tesla tear downs was fascinating. Not just for the insights into Tesla, but also into the ICE automotive mindset faced with EVs.
He is an IT guy, but knows his electronics. He found the ICE trained engineers incredibly dismissive and not interested in electric power train engineering - “Battery and a motor, how hard can that be?”
I went back to the founder's ethos when they started Tesla. A "car manufacturer which is also a technology company". Born out of frustration that a now long-dead company wasn't interested in scaling their new EV sportscar, Eberhard founded Tesla. And then with Elon Musk on board they set off licensing, refining, and then surpassing the AC Propulsion tech which inspired them.
Now it isn't just that their motor and drivetrain package is leading edge, the way it is packaged and assembled is genuinely industry-changing. Everyone else was building mechanical cars the old way - lots of parts packaged to suit the way the engine needs to be stacked. Tesla's small packaging and now the gigacasting process means they can build a highly efficient (in both energy and space usage) powertrain and use minimal parts. Which means big profits. With new chinese manufacturers copying.
One of the great things about PB is that you can always learn something new about the world.
I can now confidently talk about new developments in car manufacturing to people who know nothing about car manufacturing.
Tesla gets endlessly attacked for various reasons. Musk is mad/bad. EVs are crap and will need a £500k battery swap after 3 years. Teslas are terribly built and are Bad Cars.
Easy talking points for people who need string opinions, regardless of facts. Meanwhile Tesla get on with a genuine revolution in how to design and build cars. Whilst their valuation at multiples of the next biggest car manufacturer is probably overblown, the existential threat to VAG, GM, Mercedes etc is real and growing.
Tesla's Model 3/Y is the 21st century equivalent of the Model T Ford. The car which revolutionised the industry. And however bonkers Musk is, its the blank sheet of paper innovations which drive his businesses. Why do I have to package a car like that? Why do I have to use 150 parts when I can use 5? Why can't we use stainless steel for rockets? Why is the idea of launching a swarm of mini satellites impossibly expensive?
"its the blank sheet of paper innovations which drive his businesses. "
I'd argue that it's constant lying that drives his business. He promises so much stuff, way head of time, that does not materialise. He hypes, and the share price goes up. When he does not deliver, the share price starts trickling down. Then he does more hype and he share price shoots up again. Remember the hundreds of thousands of robotaxis that were going to be on the road in 2020, where the owners would earn more from having them as taxis than the car cost? He's hyping them again now, when his 'autopilot' isn't even the best such system on the market.
So much of Tesla's share price is supported by hype: hype over undeliverable 'autopilot'; hype over robotics; hype over ai. They have down well in delivering basic cars; these 'extensions' to their businesses are worryingly cr@p.
I know this will upset some of the Musk fanbois and the Tesla zealots, but it's not 'Musk-time' - it's lies.
I think Musk is a complete twat, so much so that it did put me off getting a Tesla, but get one I did. It is one of the most amazing innovations ever. I have had numerous BMWs, Mercs, and even one very bad Rangerover. None of them are as exciting as the Tesla, because they are all just cars, however sexy. The Tesla is an amazing piece of tech and it accelerates like shit off a shovel, sticks to the road like any supercar and saves me a shedload of tax.
Sorry Tesla haters, you are talking out of your late-adopter arses.
A few comments, which I shared with a few friends yesterday.
Needed explanations: "Vory", the thieves,- the current regime, VVP- Vladimir Vladimirovitch Putin, EVP,- Evgeny Viktorovitch Prigrozhin.
This was a sort of fake coup. The column may not have left Rostov but somebody shot down the helos and the SIGINT plane.
1) a lot less to Wagner than conventional wisdom has believed. Prigrozhin is a sock puppet. This was not Putin v Prigrozhin, this was one part of the inner circle of the Vory attacking another using Prigrozhin as a proxy. Putin was forced to make a choice, but his delay nearly created a terminal crisis, and the inner circle of the Vory will take note. PM Mistushin is in trouble and obviously those who took discreet holidays in the last 48 hours. The meeting of the security council this week will include a major reshuffle of the government. What is wrong with VVP? He seems totally listless. I think the mooted meeting of the Security Council this week might even see an open challenge, and it is not certain that he can hang on. Could it be that he really is ill?
Clearly the Vory are close to breaking themselves. Navalny might be on the plane to Moscow within a week at this rate.
2) The real is that Shoigu and Gerasimov are now out. The “uprising” was over the moment that deal was done.
Cui Bono? Surovikin and the FSB. Who loses? Draw your own conclusions, but a negative round for VVP.
Reveals that the fake Union Presidency does have a purpose in the real world- reversion to a higher authority when the Vory are deadlocked. However Luko did not do the deal, The inner circle, possibly led by Patrushev, did.
Some respect from the Vory, for bravery of EVP which is why, so far, they let him live, even though Prigrozhin was not inside the inner circle of the Vory, the code still covers him, and the inner circle realized that he (EVP) had dealt with too much in Bakhmut, had cracked and it was time to get him out.
3) Ukraine needs more help to win this war, and Enerhodar is in terrible danger. Beijing may have lost Mistushin (it remains to be seen if he can stay in place, I´m guessing no), but Luko has really come good for them. I think China may be calling at least some of the shots here, which is a bit reassuring, since they have already spoken openly against any Russian nuclear options.
The risks are indeed terrifying. As I understand it, the threat of NATO full on retaliation for any nuclear move includes radiological attacks (i.e. Enerhodar) as well as any use of n-weapons, but I think it would be well to convey this by any means possible. They question now is… to whom? Minister of Defence under house arrest, Chief of Defence Staff missing in action, President´s whereabouts unknown. Meanwhile 6 nuclear reactors are under the control of drunken morons who enjoy playing with matches.
I certainly am praying.
I don't think Prigozhin is a sock puppet. He is a mercenary. He will cause trouble as long as he can find someone to pay him, and may cause trouble if they don't.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off swing voters he rallied the Left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right as well as the centrist swing voters
If your party wasn't corrupt, incompetent and dishonest it would have a better chance to keep the right voting Conservative. Instead you have Refuk saying they have to run to ensure a conservative option is on the ballot, and on the other side your voters jumping ship in large numbers to parties seen as less shit.
Johnson is the problem, not the solution. That you can't see this but millions of your former voters can is profoundly funny.
I would argue that Johnson is a symptom, not the cause. The Tory party knew who he was and he was still allowed to be in charge because they thought (correctly for a time) that he was a winner. The Tory Party since Cameron have really been a balancing act of preserving the Tory coalition of "moderate sensibles", pensioners and culture war zealots. The coalition allowed Cameron to blame everything "wet" on the LDs with the zealots and claim victory for it with the "sensibles" so more typical centrist voters gave him a majority when he probably would have been fine with another coalition. Since then party cohesion and power has always been the priority over governing. The referendum, May, May's early election, the deal with the DUP, Johnson and Truss - each step looking madder than the last until we get here, all to appease hard liners who will never be satisfied because what they really want to roll back is the half of modernity that doesn't line their pockets.
The fact that people like HYUFD here has, over the last few weeks, essentially said if you're not a god fearing Christian who believes marriage is only between a man and a woman and have the same social and economic attitudes of a Victorian aristocrat you're not a "true Conservative" shows you how mad they've gone. Everyone is a secret lefty Marxist - even Johnson was too lefty for some with his willingness to say he wanted to increase spending on infrastructure; the horror!
I am not opposed to homosexual marriage in civil law, nor is the Conservative Party now
Oh, I am sure all "homosexuals" are so very relieved.
Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest Brexit tracker poll in partnership with UK in a Changing Europe finds 61% of Britons say they would now vote to join the EU, unchanged from our previous polls in April and in February and the joint-largest number ever to say they would vote to join the EU in our Brexit tracker poll.
Altogether, if a referendum on re-joining the European Union were to take place tomorrow, 61% (–) say they would vote for the UK to join the EU, while 39% (–) say they would vote for the UK to stay out of the EU.
Yes, the idea that Rejoin is not going to be a serious political issue is just not tenable. Brexit is being blamed for a lot of the national malaise, and sooner or later politicians will have to take note of what voters want.
Yes, but not yet. Think of it like a pan of water on a stove. As the temperature rises, not much visibly happens until a critical threshold is passed. Then it boils.
Forty percent united around a "Brexit is in peril- only we will defend it" campaign is a voter slice to fear/covet. Hence the silence. Thirty percent, rather less so. But unless Brexit shocks us all by actually making people's lives better, the polling trend seems likely to continue.
Which is why we need a serious conversation about skills, labour markets and immigration. Get that sorted and the last major political block to rejoin goes away.
i don't know whether it's by accident or design, but in making planning reform and nibbling at the green belt a key plan, Starmer has probably put the right key in the right door.
A lot (not all, but a lot) of the resistance to immigration is about a nation scrabbling over scarce resources, of which housing is one and prosperity is another. Fix those, and we don't have the same dynamic of "keep them out to leave more for me", which doesn't really work anyway.
Besides, it's probably another decade before the UK can convincingly say "Brexit was all down to that scruffy bloke who was PM for a while. Sorry about that, but he's gone now. How about a chat?" So the UK might as well do something useful in the meantime.
We're going to read an awful lot about the terror now being felt in the hearts of millions who are on paper quite affluent. Nice house, daft car on the drive. But they are indebted up to the eyeballs, and the spikes in interest rates mean they could lose the lot.
In reality many will not. But the realisation that they are not only sailing that close to disaster but also utterly powerless will be saluatory. Especially when they see the party they kept voting for not only doing nothing, but blaming THEM for the mess they are in. With a sneer.
I think it will be worse than that. To the point of systemic effects. The car loans business could go sides ways in a big way, for example. And given how profitable it has been, guess who will have been investing in *that*, eh?
The other big one is the commercial property sector - especially the scale of owning chunks of high streets. Under “proper management”, this is leveraged until the pips squeak. If you think housing costs are nuts, meet some shop keepers who will tell you about their rent increases.
The new car business is totally screwed. Just as the pandemic supply chains get back to something approaching normal, there’s going to be a massive drop in demand from those who have become addicted to leasing a new car every three years when interest rates were on the floor. Add to the legislative changes that now push people towards electric cars, and you have a perfect storm of falling demand, especially for the luxury brands.
I was looking at the Mercedes range yesterday to try and get my head around what their strategy is. There is no doubt that they see electrification as a great opportunity to premiumise - e.g. the EQA starts at £52k, the GLA it is the electric version of starts at £37k.
This creates a gulf in the market which all of the new Chinese brands will happily step into. MG have already shown the way (and remember that MG is owned by the Chinese government via SIAC), others like BYD are coming.
I've recorded a video for Tesla's 20th birthday next Saturday, speculating about how the car market will look on their 40th birthday. And my conclusion is that many of the brands we know today will have disappeared, out-maneuvered by Chinese companies who make the cars people want and can afford. The remaining premium brands will have consolidated and retreated into one big blog making only the top end. A Swatch group for cars if you like.
I don't really understand who is buying these cars, or even leasing them. I'm pretty comfortably off - not top 1%, certainly, but probably top 10% - and I'd never pay more than £20k for a car; and if it wasn't for me having three kids my maximum would be rather lower.
I will grant you that a £50k car is a nicer place to be than a £20k car. But that's, what, £400 a month? I could do a lot with£400 a month that's more fun or memorable than sitting in a nice car. And I like driving. But driving on an empty winding road through pleasant scenery with agreeable music playing is only about 5% more enjoyable in a new £50k car than in a ten year old car worth less than £5k.
I know I hustle £55k EVs on YouTube. But there is something deeply satisfying about driving the £2k 14 year old Hyundai I bought as a second car. Its a dinosaur, but its engaging because everything is so analogue. And as several panels are already pre-dented, I don't worry about it parked next to Other People as I do the Tesla.
I drive a Ford Focus Mk 1 in electric blue that I bought for £500. Its 21 years old and still drives great. I love it.
We're going to read an awful lot about the terror now being felt in the hearts of millions who are on paper quite affluent. Nice house, daft car on the drive. But they are indebted up to the eyeballs, and the spikes in interest rates mean they could lose the lot.
In reality many will not. But the realisation that they are not only sailing that close to disaster but also utterly powerless will be saluatory. Especially when they see the party they kept voting for not only doing nothing, but blaming THEM for the mess they are in. With a sneer.
I think it will be worse than that. To the point of systemic effects. The car loans business could go sides ways in a big way, for example. And given how profitable it has been, guess who will have been investing in *that*, eh?
The other big one is the commercial property sector - especially the scale of owning chunks of high streets. Under “proper management”, this is leveraged until the pips squeak. If you think housing costs are nuts, meet some shop keepers who will tell you about their rent increases.
The new car business is totally screwed. Just as the pandemic supply chains get back to something approaching normal, there’s going to be a massive drop in demand from those who have become addicted to leasing a new car every three years when interest rates were on the floor. Add to the legislative changes that now push people towards electric cars, and you have a perfect storm of falling demand, especially for the luxury brands.
I was looking at the Mercedes range yesterday to try and get my head around what their strategy is. There is no doubt that they see electrification as a great opportunity to premiumise - e.g. the EQA starts at £52k, the GLA it is the electric version of starts at £37k.
This creates a gulf in the market which all of the new Chinese brands will happily step into. MG have already shown the way (and remember that MG is owned by the Chinese government via SIAC), others like BYD are coming.
I've recorded a video for Tesla's 20th birthday next Saturday, speculating about how the car market will look on their 40th birthday. And my conclusion is that many of the brands we know today will have disappeared, out-maneuvered by Chinese companies who make the cars people want and can afford. The remaining premium brands will have consolidated and retreated into one big blog making only the top end. A Swatch group for cars if you like.
Yes, the Chinese car brands are starting to arrive where I am. Coming in at 2/3 of the price of Korean brands, close to half the price of the Japanese brands. The European brands are nowhere by comparison, except to be seen as luxury goods. It’s going to be a masssive shift, and electrification is going to accelerate that change.
My Volvo S90 was chinese owned and built. My Tesla Model Y is American owned and chinese built. My brother's MG is chinese owned and built. The perception remains that China isn't luxury and won't be able to compete with western monoliths. This is wrong at a base level, and any of the big car company bosses surrounded by yes men saying that are in trouble.
The other major issue is this: legacy car makers are cynical about EVs. They build EVs converted from their existing products (e.g. EQA from GLA), built in the same manner with a gazillion parts arranged in the way their factories are set up to build. So you get an overly-complex but poorly packaged EV which they then charge a large premium for. So many of the new Chinese brands are ground up EVs, built with far fewer parts (copying the Tesla revolution) and thus cheaper and more profitable whilst being better packaged.
The old marques are in trouble.
An old friend who worked for Tata, for a while, said that being involved in the Tesla tear downs was fascinating. Not just for the insights into Tesla, but also into the ICE automotive mindset faced with EVs.
He is an IT guy, but knows his electronics. He found the ICE trained engineers incredibly dismissive and not interested in electric power train engineering - “Battery and a motor, how hard can that be?”
I went back to the founder's ethos when they started Tesla. A "car manufacturer which is also a technology company". Born out of frustration that a now long-dead company wasn't interested in scaling their new EV sportscar, Eberhard founded Tesla. And then with Elon Musk on board they set off licensing, refining, and then surpassing the AC Propulsion tech which inspired them.
Now it isn't just that their motor and drivetrain package is leading edge, the way it is packaged and assembled is genuinely industry-changing. Everyone else was building mechanical cars the old way - lots of parts packaged to suit the way the engine needs to be stacked. Tesla's small packaging and now the gigacasting process means they can build a highly efficient (in both energy and space usage) powertrain and use minimal parts. Which means big profits. With new chinese manufacturers copying.
One of the great things about PB is that you can always learn something new about the world.
I can now confidently talk about new developments in car manufacturing to people who know nothing about car manufacturing.
Tesla gets endlessly attacked for various reasons. Musk is mad/bad. EVs are crap and will need a £500k battery swap after 3 years. Teslas are terribly built and are Bad Cars.
Easy talking points for people who need string opinions, regardless of facts. Meanwhile Tesla get on with a genuine revolution in how to design and build cars. Whilst their valuation at multiples of the next biggest car manufacturer is probably overblown, the existential threat to VAG, GM, Mercedes etc is real and growing.
Tesla's Model 3/Y is the 21st century equivalent of the Model T Ford. The car which revolutionised the industry. And however bonkers Musk is, its the blank sheet of paper innovations which drive his businesses. Why do I have to package a car like that? Why do I have to use 150 parts when I can use 5? Why can't we use stainless steel for rockets? Why is the idea of launching a swarm of mini satellites impossibly expensive?
Mate, just want to congratulate you on the YouTube channel. EVs aren't really my thing, but as we don't watch broadcast TV, we tend to just try random content on YouTube, then follow where it leads, and your content is interesting and informative, and well put together (although my son, who edits various YouTubers' content for a living thinks it's "ok", but you ain't no Peter Mckinnon!) I really found the Tesla left hand drive one interesting, and do wonder if other brands might follow suit.
Thanks! I could improve a lot about my videos. More time and more money for better production kit would help! Have found that some of the stuff that I think works best was literally "ooh thats an idea", shot very quickly with minimal edits, upload and go. Like that video you mention. Better than weeks stuck in editing hell as some of them have been. Am currently producing and uploading a bank of content to cover July as I will have zero time for YouTube. Shot 5 in a day yesterday, all different...
We're going to read an awful lot about the terror now being felt in the hearts of millions who are on paper quite affluent. Nice house, daft car on the drive. But they are indebted up to the eyeballs, and the spikes in interest rates mean they could lose the lot.
In reality many will not. But the realisation that they are not only sailing that close to disaster but also utterly powerless will be saluatory. Especially when they see the party they kept voting for not only doing nothing, but blaming THEM for the mess they are in. With a sneer.
I think it will be worse than that. To the point of systemic effects. The car loans business could go sides ways in a big way, for example. And given how profitable it has been, guess who will have been investing in *that*, eh?
The other big one is the commercial property sector - especially the scale of owning chunks of high streets. Under “proper management”, this is leveraged until the pips squeak. If you think housing costs are nuts, meet some shop keepers who will tell you about their rent increases.
The new car business is totally screwed. Just as the pandemic supply chains get back to something approaching normal, there’s going to be a massive drop in demand from those who have become addicted to leasing a new car every three years when interest rates were on the floor. Add to the legislative changes that now push people towards electric cars, and you have a perfect storm of falling demand, especially for the luxury brands.
I was looking at the Mercedes range yesterday to try and get my head around what their strategy is. There is no doubt that they see electrification as a great opportunity to premiumise - e.g. the EQA starts at £52k, the GLA it is the electric version of starts at £37k.
This creates a gulf in the market which all of the new Chinese brands will happily step into. MG have already shown the way (and remember that MG is owned by the Chinese government via SIAC), others like BYD are coming.
I've recorded a video for Tesla's 20th birthday next Saturday, speculating about how the car market will look on their 40th birthday. And my conclusion is that many of the brands we know today will have disappeared, out-maneuvered by Chinese companies who make the cars people want and can afford. The remaining premium brands will have consolidated and retreated into one big blog making only the top end. A Swatch group for cars if you like.
Perhaps it would help if you had a YouTube channel with a memorable name, and then added a link
The other major issue is this: legacy car makers are cynical about EVs. They build EVs converted from their existing products (e.g. EQA from GLA),
That's just MB wringing the last euro out of the MFA2 platform. Their premium products (EQE, EQS) are built on dedicated EV platforms (EVA).
All of the other tier one OEMs now have dedicated EV platforms (BMW: Neue Klasse, VAG: MEB, I can't remember what the Ford and GM ones are called but they exist).
The problem the legacy OEMs don't have is an association between their brand and a degenerate fucc boi.
The other problem the legacy OEMs have is China has timed their entry into the global markets at the time the market is going through a major transition...
The fucking interior looks like children made it because they did.
Still. Ten grand. Luvvly jubbly.
I had a state of the Chinese art Lynk & Co hybrid SUV as one of my hire cars in Germany recently. It generated negative downforce at over 180km/h (you could tell from how the rear dampers just stopped working). At 229km/h I was convinced the rear wheels were actually off the ground. If I didn't have thousands of hours of high speed driving in a 2CV under my belt I'd be dead.
My second hire car was a Peugeot 508GT which confounded expectations by being really good. If I were in the market for a 'car' car I'd be tempted.
We're going to read an awful lot about the terror now being felt in the hearts of millions who are on paper quite affluent. Nice house, daft car on the drive. But they are indebted up to the eyeballs, and the spikes in interest rates mean they could lose the lot.
In reality many will not. But the realisation that they are not only sailing that close to disaster but also utterly powerless will be saluatory. Especially when they see the party they kept voting for not only doing nothing, but blaming THEM for the mess they are in. With a sneer.
I think it will be worse than that. To the point of systemic effects. The car loans business could go sides ways in a big way, for example. And given how profitable it has been, guess who will have been investing in *that*, eh?
The other big one is the commercial property sector - especially the scale of owning chunks of high streets. Under “proper management”, this is leveraged until the pips squeak. If you think housing costs are nuts, meet some shop keepers who will tell you about their rent increases.
The new car business is totally screwed. Just as the pandemic supply chains get back to something approaching normal, there’s going to be a massive drop in demand from those who have become addicted to leasing a new car every three years when interest rates were on the floor. Add to the legislative changes that now push people towards electric cars, and you have a perfect storm of falling demand, especially for the luxury brands.
I was looking at the Mercedes range yesterday to try and get my head around what their strategy is. There is no doubt that they see electrification as a great opportunity to premiumise - e.g. the EQA starts at £52k, the GLA it is the electric version of starts at £37k.
This creates a gulf in the market which all of the new Chinese brands will happily step into. MG have already shown the way (and remember that MG is owned by the Chinese government via SIAC), others like BYD are coming.
I've recorded a video for Tesla's 20th birthday next Saturday, speculating about how the car market will look on their 40th birthday. And my conclusion is that many of the brands we know today will have disappeared, out-maneuvered by Chinese companies who make the cars people want and can afford. The remaining premium brands will have consolidated and retreated into one big blog making only the top end. A Swatch group for cars if you like.
Yes, the Chinese car brands are starting to arrive where I am. Coming in at 2/3 of the price of Korean brands, close to half the price of the Japanese brands. The European brands are nowhere by comparison, except to be seen as luxury goods. It’s going to be a masssive shift, and electrification is going to accelerate that change.
My Volvo S90 was chinese owned and built. My Tesla Model Y is American owned and chinese built. My brother's MG is chinese owned and built. The perception remains that China isn't luxury and won't be able to compete with western monoliths. This is wrong at a base level, and any of the big car company bosses surrounded by yes men saying that are in trouble.
The other major issue is this: legacy car makers are cynical about EVs. They build EVs converted from their existing products (e.g. EQA from GLA), built in the same manner with a gazillion parts arranged in the way their factories are set up to build. So you get an overly-complex but poorly packaged EV which they then charge a large premium for. So many of the new Chinese brands are ground up EVs, built with far fewer parts (copying the Tesla revolution) and thus cheaper and more profitable whilst being better packaged.
The old marques are in trouble.
An old friend who worked for Tata, for a while, said that being involved in the Tesla tear downs was fascinating. Not just for the insights into Tesla, but also into the ICE automotive mindset faced with EVs.
He is an IT guy, but knows his electronics. He found the ICE trained engineers incredibly dismissive and not interested in electric power train engineering - “Battery and a motor, how hard can that be?”
I went back to the founder's ethos when they started Tesla. A "car manufacturer which is also a technology company". Born out of frustration that a now long-dead company wasn't interested in scaling their new EV sportscar, Eberhard founded Tesla. And then with Elon Musk on board they set off licensing, refining, and then surpassing the AC Propulsion tech which inspired them.
Now it isn't just that their motor and drivetrain package is leading edge, the way it is packaged and assembled is genuinely industry-changing. Everyone else was building mechanical cars the old way - lots of parts packaged to suit the way the engine needs to be stacked. Tesla's small packaging and now the gigacasting process means they can build a highly efficient (in both energy and space usage) powertrain and use minimal parts. Which means big profits. With new chinese manufacturers copying.
One of the great things about PB is that you can always learn something new about the world.
I can now confidently talk about new developments in car manufacturing to people who know nothing about car manufacturing.
Tesla gets endlessly attacked for various reasons. Musk is mad/bad. EVs are crap and will need a £500k battery swap after 3 years. Teslas are terribly built and are Bad Cars.
Easy talking points for people who need string opinions, regardless of facts. Meanwhile Tesla get on with a genuine revolution in how to design and build cars. Whilst their valuation at multiples of the next biggest car manufacturer is probably overblown, the existential threat to VAG, GM, Mercedes etc is real and growing.
Tesla's Model 3/Y is the 21st century equivalent of the Model T Ford. The car which revolutionised the industry. And however bonkers Musk is, its the blank sheet of paper innovations which drive his businesses. Why do I have to package a car like that? Why do I have to use 150 parts when I can use 5? Why can't we use stainless steel for rockets? Why is the idea of launching a swarm of mini satellites impossibly expensive?
"its the blank sheet of paper innovations which drive his businesses. "
I'd argue that it's constant lying that drives his business. He promises so much stuff, way head of time, that does not materialise. He hypes, and the share price goes up. When he does not deliver, the share price starts trickling down. Then he does more hype and he share price shoots up again. Remember the hundreds of thousands of robotaxis that were going to be on the road in 2020, where the owners would earn more from having them as taxis than the car cost? He's hyping them again now, when his 'autopilot' isn't even the best such system on the market.
So much of Tesla's share price is supported by hype: hype over undeliverable 'autopilot'; hype over robotics; hype over ai. They have down well in delivering basic cars; these 'extensions' to their businesses are worryingly cr@p.
I know this will upset some of the Musk fanbois and the Tesla zealots, but it's not 'Musk-time' - it's lies.
He's repeatedly said Tesla's stock price is overvalued. It's not his fault noone listens to what he actually says.
The thing is that he has over promised, but actually delivered more than the legacy people.
The latest news from the US is that all the other car makers have given up trying to push the non-Tesla standard plug for charging and are queuing up to join the Tesla network.
Why? Well, legacy had regulatory backing, they had Congress, Senate, Whitehouse, the unions… what they didn’t have enough of was actual fucking charging stations. They were going to spend “billions” on that Real Soon Now.
Same horseshit that the legacy automakers have been pushing on ZEVs for decades. “We will change over when the time is right. And when ZEVs are ready. And when our bums don’t look big in an ZEV. And the stars are right. Oh, and someone else needs to pay for the charging/hydrogen delivery.”
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I'm pretty confident of two things. First is that the Conservatives will respond to defeat by moving further to the right. Second is that it won't go well for them. Partly because votes gained on the right will be netted out by votes lost on the left. But also becuase, however right wing the Conservatives go, the proper populists will always be able to go a bit further.
My concern is just how right wing Labour are willing to go. The new austerity of SKSs "fiscal rules" will mean another lost generation, another decade or more of the sick man of Europe, and more pandering to bigotry as a sop for declining standards of living. If SKS continues in his current path, I could see the next Labour government being to the right of the Coalition government. If that becomes the "new centre" then the Tories will be allowed to move further rightwards, and the papers and news media will launder that as acceptable as well. There will come a point where Labour lose popularity, and because of FPTP most people will only ever consider the Tories as the second party of government. So I'm not so optimistic that a rightward drift will consign the Tories to unelectablility...
If Starmer moves further to the right, the Lib Dem will fill the gap on the left (ie the centre) with pragmatic non ideological policies and treat the electorate as adults.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I hope you're right. It will doom the Tories for a generation. Under PFTP, an ultra right wing Tory party minus sensible centrist Tories stands no chance of being in government.
Depends on the economy. People thought Thatcher was unelectable against Wilson and Callaghan initially until the strikes and high inflation of the late 1970s saw her win in 1979
Thatcher had a wide appeal. She wasn't ultra right wing.
An ultra right wing Tory party, led by Braverman, would only appeal to the aggrieved working class who want to stop immigrants and all this modern stuff. They will lose sensible one-nation Tories. Tney are a fairly small minority, and under FPTP, will not achieve power.
We're going to read an awful lot about the terror now being felt in the hearts of millions who are on paper quite affluent. Nice house, daft car on the drive. But they are indebted up to the eyeballs, and the spikes in interest rates mean they could lose the lot.
In reality many will not. But the realisation that they are not only sailing that close to disaster but also utterly powerless will be saluatory. Especially when they see the party they kept voting for not only doing nothing, but blaming THEM for the mess they are in. With a sneer.
I think it will be worse than that. To the point of systemic effects. The car loans business could go sides ways in a big way, for example. And given how profitable it has been, guess who will have been investing in *that*, eh?
The other big one is the commercial property sector - especially the scale of owning chunks of high streets. Under “proper management”, this is leveraged until the pips squeak. If you think housing costs are nuts, meet some shop keepers who will tell you about their rent increases.
The new car business is totally screwed. Just as the pandemic supply chains get back to something approaching normal, there’s going to be a massive drop in demand from those who have become addicted to leasing a new car every three years when interest rates were on the floor. Add to the legislative changes that now push people towards electric cars, and you have a perfect storm of falling demand, especially for the luxury brands.
I was looking at the Mercedes range yesterday to try and get my head around what their strategy is. There is no doubt that they see electrification as a great opportunity to premiumise - e.g. the EQA starts at £52k, the GLA it is the electric version of starts at £37k.
This creates a gulf in the market which all of the new Chinese brands will happily step into. MG have already shown the way (and remember that MG is owned by the Chinese government via SIAC), others like BYD are coming.
I've recorded a video for Tesla's 20th birthday next Saturday, speculating about how the car market will look on their 40th birthday. And my conclusion is that many of the brands we know today will have disappeared, out-maneuvered by Chinese companies who make the cars people want and can afford. The remaining premium brands will have consolidated and retreated into one big blog making only the top end. A Swatch group for cars if you like.
Yes, the Chinese car brands are starting to arrive where I am. Coming in at 2/3 of the price of Korean brands, close to half the price of the Japanese brands. The European brands are nowhere by comparison, except to be seen as luxury goods. It’s going to be a masssive shift, and electrification is going to accelerate that change.
My Volvo S90 was chinese owned and built. My Tesla Model Y is American owned and chinese built. My brother's MG is chinese owned and built. The perception remains that China isn't luxury and won't be able to compete with western monoliths. This is wrong at a base level, and any of the big car company bosses surrounded by yes men saying that are in trouble.
The other major issue is this: legacy car makers are cynical about EVs. They build EVs converted from their existing products (e.g. EQA from GLA), built in the same manner with a gazillion parts arranged in the way their factories are set up to build. So you get an overly-complex but poorly packaged EV which they then charge a large premium for. So many of the new Chinese brands are ground up EVs, built with far fewer parts (copying the Tesla revolution) and thus cheaper and more profitable whilst being better packaged.
The old marques are in trouble.
An old friend who worked for Tata, for a while, said that being involved in the Tesla tear downs was fascinating. Not just for the insights into Tesla, but also into the ICE automotive mindset faced with EVs.
He is an IT guy, but knows his electronics. He found the ICE trained engineers incredibly dismissive and not interested in electric power train engineering - “Battery and a motor, how hard can that be?”
I went back to the founder's ethos when they started Tesla. A "car manufacturer which is also a technology company". Born out of frustration that a now long-dead company wasn't interested in scaling their new EV sportscar, Eberhard founded Tesla. And then with Elon Musk on board they set off licensing, refining, and then surpassing the AC Propulsion tech which inspired them.
Now it isn't just that their motor and drivetrain package is leading edge, the way it is packaged and assembled is genuinely industry-changing. Everyone else was building mechanical cars the old way - lots of parts packaged to suit the way the engine needs to be stacked. Tesla's small packaging and now the gigacasting process means they can build a highly efficient (in both energy and space usage) powertrain and use minimal parts. Which means big profits. With new chinese manufacturers copying.
One of the great things about PB is that you can always learn something new about the world.
I can now confidently talk about new developments in car manufacturing to people who know nothing about car manufacturing.
Tesla gets endlessly attacked for various reasons. Musk is mad/bad. EVs are crap and will need a £500k battery swap after 3 years. Teslas are terribly built and are Bad Cars.
Easy talking points for people who need string opinions, regardless of facts. Meanwhile Tesla get on with a genuine revolution in how to design and build cars. Whilst their valuation at multiples of the next biggest car manufacturer is probably overblown, the existential threat to VAG, GM, Mercedes etc is real and growing.
Tesla's Model 3/Y is the 21st century equivalent of the Model T Ford. The car which revolutionised the industry. And however bonkers Musk is, its the blank sheet of paper innovations which drive his businesses. Why do I have to package a car like that? Why do I have to use 150 parts when I can use 5? Why can't we use stainless steel for rockets? Why is the idea of launching a swarm of mini satellites impossibly expensive?
"its the blank sheet of paper innovations which drive his businesses. "
I'd argue that it's constant lying that drives his business. He promises so much stuff, way head of time, that does not materialise. He hypes, and the share price goes up. When he does not deliver, the share price starts trickling down. Then he does more hype and he share price shoots up again. Remember the hundreds of thousands of robotaxis that were going to be on the road in 2020, where the owners would earn more from having them as taxis than the car cost? He's hyping them again now, when his 'autopilot' isn't even the best such system on the market.
So much of Tesla's share price is supported by hype: hype over undeliverable 'autopilot'; hype over robotics; hype over ai. They have down well in delivering basic cars; these 'extensions' to their businesses are worryingly cr@p.
I know this will upset some of the Musk fanbois and the Tesla zealots, but it's not 'Musk-time' - it's lies.
I think Musk is a complete twat, so much so that it did put me off getting a Tesla, but get one I did. It is one of the most amazing innovations ever. I have had numerous BMWs, Mercs, and even one very bad Rangerover. None of them are as exciting as the Tesla, because they are all just cars, however sexy. The Tesla is an amazing piece of tech and it accelerates like shit off a shovel, sticks to the road like any supercar and saves me a shedload of tax.
Sorry Tesla haters, you are talking out of your late-adopter arses.
"Tesla haters" Nope. But I am very sceptical about some of the stuff they do, and the way Musk manipulates the share price. I don't see those as positives.
"late-adopter arses" I think you mean: the plebs who cannot afford one. You know, the vast majority of people.
"one of the most amazing innovations ever" You're writing this on the Internet, and you think an electric car is one of the 'most amazing innovations ever' ?
We're going to read an awful lot about the terror now being felt in the hearts of millions who are on paper quite affluent. Nice house, daft car on the drive. But they are indebted up to the eyeballs, and the spikes in interest rates mean they could lose the lot.
In reality many will not. But the realisation that they are not only sailing that close to disaster but also utterly powerless will be saluatory. Especially when they see the party they kept voting for not only doing nothing, but blaming THEM for the mess they are in. With a sneer.
I think it will be worse than that. To the point of systemic effects. The car loans business could go sides ways in a big way, for example. And given how profitable it has been, guess who will have been investing in *that*, eh?
The other big one is the commercial property sector - especially the scale of owning chunks of high streets. Under “proper management”, this is leveraged until the pips squeak. If you think housing costs are nuts, meet some shop keepers who will tell you about their rent increases.
The new car business is totally screwed. Just as the pandemic supply chains get back to something approaching normal, there’s going to be a massive drop in demand from those who have become addicted to leasing a new car every three years when interest rates were on the floor. Add to the legislative changes that now push people towards electric cars, and you have a perfect storm of falling demand, especially for the luxury brands.
I was looking at the Mercedes range yesterday to try and get my head around what their strategy is. There is no doubt that they see electrification as a great opportunity to premiumise - e.g. the EQA starts at £52k, the GLA it is the electric version of starts at £37k.
This creates a gulf in the market which all of the new Chinese brands will happily step into. MG have already shown the way (and remember that MG is owned by the Chinese government via SIAC), others like BYD are coming.
I've recorded a video for Tesla's 20th birthday next Saturday, speculating about how the car market will look on their 40th birthday. And my conclusion is that many of the brands we know today will have disappeared, out-maneuvered by Chinese companies who make the cars people want and can afford. The remaining premium brands will have consolidated and retreated into one big blog making only the top end. A Swatch group for cars if you like.
Yes, the Chinese car brands are starting to arrive where I am. Coming in at 2/3 of the price of Korean brands, close to half the price of the Japanese brands. The European brands are nowhere by comparison, except to be seen as luxury goods. It’s going to be a masssive shift, and electrification is going to accelerate that change.
My Volvo S90 was chinese owned and built. My Tesla Model Y is American owned and chinese built. My brother's MG is chinese owned and built. The perception remains that China isn't luxury and won't be able to compete with western monoliths. This is wrong at a base level, and any of the big car company bosses surrounded by yes men saying that are in trouble.
The other major issue is this: legacy car makers are cynical about EVs. They build EVs converted from their existing products (e.g. EQA from GLA), built in the same manner with a gazillion parts arranged in the way their factories are set up to build. So you get an overly-complex but poorly packaged EV which they then charge a large premium for. So many of the new Chinese brands are ground up EVs, built with far fewer parts (copying the Tesla revolution) and thus cheaper and more profitable whilst being better packaged.
The old marques are in trouble.
An old friend who worked for Tata, for a while, said that being involved in the Tesla tear downs was fascinating. Not just for the insights into Tesla, but also into the ICE automotive mindset faced with EVs.
He is an IT guy, but knows his electronics. He found the ICE trained engineers incredibly dismissive and not interested in electric power train engineering - “Battery and a motor, how hard can that be?”
I went back to the founder's ethos when they started Tesla. A "car manufacturer which is also a technology company". Born out of frustration that a now long-dead company wasn't interested in scaling their new EV sportscar, Eberhard founded Tesla. And then with Elon Musk on board they set off licensing, refining, and then surpassing the AC Propulsion tech which inspired them.
Now it isn't just that their motor and drivetrain package is leading edge, the way it is packaged and assembled is genuinely industry-changing. Everyone else was building mechanical cars the old way - lots of parts packaged to suit the way the engine needs to be stacked. Tesla's small packaging and now the gigacasting process means they can build a highly efficient (in both energy and space usage) powertrain and use minimal parts. Which means big profits. With new chinese manufacturers copying.
One of the great things about PB is that you can always learn something new about the world.
I can now confidently talk about new developments in car manufacturing to people who know nothing about car manufacturing.
Tesla gets endlessly attacked for various reasons. Musk is mad/bad. EVs are crap and will need a £500k battery swap after 3 years. Teslas are terribly built and are Bad Cars.
Easy talking points for people who need string opinions, regardless of facts. Meanwhile Tesla get on with a genuine revolution in how to design and build cars. Whilst their valuation at multiples of the next biggest car manufacturer is probably overblown, the existential threat to VAG, GM, Mercedes etc is real and growing.
Tesla's Model 3/Y is the 21st century equivalent of the Model T Ford. The car which revolutionised the industry. And however bonkers Musk is, its the blank sheet of paper innovations which drive his businesses. Why do I have to package a car like that? Why do I have to use 150 parts when I can use 5? Why can't we use stainless steel for rockets? Why is the idea of launching a swarm of mini satellites impossibly expensive?
Musk himself is a polarising character. He strikes me as the absolute worst sort of tech-bro, in love with his own personality cult - and why not, I guess? It has made him very wealthy.
And the Model T comparison is valid - not just from the innovation POV. While more successful than Musk (broadly speaking). Henry Ford also had some quite troubling niche views, which like Musk he sought to foist upon the world. Both are unusual people whose flaws and virtues have been massively magnified by their success.
The other major issue is this: legacy car makers are cynical about EVs. They build EVs converted from their existing products (e.g. EQA from GLA),
That's just MB wringing the last euro out of the MFA2 platform. Their premium products (EQE, EQS) are built on dedicated EV platforms (EVA).
All of the other tier one OEMs now have dedicated EV platforms (BMW: Neue Klasse, VAG: MEB, I can't remember what the Ford and GM ones are called but they exist).
The problem the legacy OEMs don't have is an association between their brand and a degenerate fucc boi.
The other problem the legacy OEMs have is China has timed their entry into the global markets at the time the market is going through a major transition...
It would be closer to £15k in the UK, because of taxes and dealer markups, but this is what we are now dealing with from China.
I assume that there will be a reason found for it to be non-compliant with European safety regulations, to prevent them being sold in the West, but there’s one hell of a trade war coming over Chinese cars.
The remaining premium brands will have consolidated and retreated into one big blog making only the top end. A Swatch group for cars if you like.
Mercedes are an ancient and storied marque with incredible brand equity. Even if the products were broadly similar most punters would prefer a Merc over a BY-fucking-D and will pay a hefty premium for it over MG, BYD, etc. I could see technology co-operation (see Ford/GM on transmissions) but there isn't going to be a single premium car brand warehouse.
I do think the groups with a plethora of brands (VAG, Stellantis) will have to rationalise in the same way that the US OEMs had to by shedding brands. Although VAG's strategy at the moment appears to be to create new brands (Rimac, Cupra).
The proper nouns and acronyms I recognise in that post are “Mercedes”, “Ford”, “GM” and (possibly) “MG”. The rest could have been in code.
What we see on here are well-off people who can afford current electric cars calling others things like: "late-adopter arses" and looking down on them.
Cars are often the second-most expensive purchase anyone will buy, after a house. Therefore the choice of car reflects on the owner. When I had a Land Rover 110, it suited my character (big, noisy, and often broke down). Mrs J's first car purchase was a Hyundai i20 (small, nimble and nice to drive).
Sadly, Tesla drivers are becoming synonymous with over-entitled w@nkers - think BMW and Audi drivers combined with Cockney Barrow-boys.
We're going to read an awful lot about the terror now being felt in the hearts of millions who are on paper quite affluent. Nice house, daft car on the drive. But they are indebted up to the eyeballs, and the spikes in interest rates mean they could lose the lot.
In reality many will not. But the realisation that they are not only sailing that close to disaster but also utterly powerless will be saluatory. Especially when they see the party they kept voting for not only doing nothing, but blaming THEM for the mess they are in. With a sneer.
I think it will be worse than that. To the point of systemic effects. The car loans business could go sides ways in a big way, for example. And given how profitable it has been, guess who will have been investing in *that*, eh?
The other big one is the commercial property sector - especially the scale of owning chunks of high streets. Under “proper management”, this is leveraged until the pips squeak. If you think housing costs are nuts, meet some shop keepers who will tell you about their rent increases.
The new car business is totally screwed. Just as the pandemic supply chains get back to something approaching normal, there’s going to be a massive drop in demand from those who have become addicted to leasing a new car every three years when interest rates were on the floor. Add to the legislative changes that now push people towards electric cars, and you have a perfect storm of falling demand, especially for the luxury brands.
I was looking at the Mercedes range yesterday to try and get my head around what their strategy is. There is no doubt that they see electrification as a great opportunity to premiumise - e.g. the EQA starts at £52k, the GLA it is the electric version of starts at £37k.
This creates a gulf in the market which all of the new Chinese brands will happily step into. MG have already shown the way (and remember that MG is owned by the Chinese government via SIAC), others like BYD are coming.
I've recorded a video for Tesla's 20th birthday next Saturday, speculating about how the car market will look on their 40th birthday. And my conclusion is that many of the brands we know today will have disappeared, out-maneuvered by Chinese companies who make the cars people want and can afford. The remaining premium brands will have consolidated and retreated into one big blog making only the top end. A Swatch group for cars if you like.
Yes, the Chinese car brands are starting to arrive where I am. Coming in at 2/3 of the price of Korean brands, close to half the price of the Japanese brands. The European brands are nowhere by comparison, except to be seen as luxury goods. It’s going to be a masssive shift, and electrification is going to accelerate that change.
My Volvo S90 was chinese owned and built. My Tesla Model Y is American owned and chinese built. My brother's MG is chinese owned and built. The perception remains that China isn't luxury and won't be able to compete with western monoliths. This is wrong at a base level, and any of the big car company bosses surrounded by yes men saying that are in trouble.
The other major issue is this: legacy car makers are cynical about EVs. They build EVs converted from their existing products (e.g. EQA from GLA), built in the same manner with a gazillion parts arranged in the way their factories are set up to build. So you get an overly-complex but poorly packaged EV which they then charge a large premium for. So many of the new Chinese brands are ground up EVs, built with far fewer parts (copying the Tesla revolution) and thus cheaper and more profitable whilst being better packaged.
The old marques are in trouble.
An old friend who worked for Tata, for a while, said that being involved in the Tesla tear downs was fascinating. Not just for the insights into Tesla, but also into the ICE automotive mindset faced with EVs.
He is an IT guy, but knows his electronics. He found the ICE trained engineers incredibly dismissive and not interested in electric power train engineering - “Battery and a motor, how hard can that be?”
I went back to the founder's ethos when they started Tesla. A "car manufacturer which is also a technology company". Born out of frustration that a now long-dead company wasn't interested in scaling their new EV sportscar, Eberhard founded Tesla. And then with Elon Musk on board they set off licensing, refining, and then surpassing the AC Propulsion tech which inspired them.
Now it isn't just that their motor and drivetrain package is leading edge, the way it is packaged and assembled is genuinely industry-changing. Everyone else was building mechanical cars the old way - lots of parts packaged to suit the way the engine needs to be stacked. Tesla's small packaging and now the gigacasting process means they can build a highly efficient (in both energy and space usage) powertrain and use minimal parts. Which means big profits. With new chinese manufacturers copying.
One of the great things about PB is that you can always learn something new about the world.
I can now confidently talk about new developments in car manufacturing to people who know nothing about car manufacturing.
Tesla gets endlessly attacked for various reasons. Musk is mad/bad. EVs are crap and will need a £500k battery swap after 3 years. Teslas are terribly built and are Bad Cars.
Easy talking points for people who need string opinions, regardless of facts. Meanwhile Tesla get on with a genuine revolution in how to design and build cars. Whilst their valuation at multiples of the next biggest car manufacturer is probably overblown, the existential threat to VAG, GM, Mercedes etc is real and growing.
Tesla's Model 3/Y is the 21st century equivalent of the Model T Ford. The car which revolutionised the industry. And however bonkers Musk is, its the blank sheet of paper innovations which drive his businesses. Why do I have to package a car like that? Why do I have to use 150 parts when I can use 5? Why can't we use stainless steel for rockets? Why is the idea of launching a swarm of mini satellites impossibly expensive?
Mate, just want to congratulate you on the YouTube channel. EVs aren't really my thing, but as we don't watch broadcast TV, we tend to just try random content on YouTube, then follow where it leads, and your content is interesting and informative, and well put together (although my son, who edits various YouTubers' content for a living thinks it's "ok", but you ain't no Peter Mckinnon!) I really found the Tesla left hand drive one interesting, and do wonder if other brands might follow suit.
Thanks! I could improve a lot about my videos. More time and more money for better production kit would help! Have found that some of the stuff that I think works best was literally "ooh thats an idea", shot very quickly with minimal edits, upload and go. Like that video you mention. Better than weeks stuck in editing hell as some of them have been. Am currently producing and uploading a bank of content to cover July as I will have zero time for YouTube. Shot 5 in a day yesterday, all different...
My lad hates YouTube work, especially as its so randomly shot and put together, but it pays too well for him to stop doing it. His passion is music videos, but a lot of YouTubers get to a point where they're too busy or too lazy to do the editing, so are prepared to farm it out.
The other major issue is this: legacy car makers are cynical about EVs. They build EVs converted from their existing products (e.g. EQA from GLA),
That's just MB wringing the last euro out of the MFA2 platform. Their premium products (EQE, EQS) are built on dedicated EV platforms (EVA).
All of the other tier one OEMs now have dedicated EV platforms (BMW: Neue Klasse, VAG: MEB, I can't remember what the Ford and GM ones are called but they exist).
The problem the legacy OEMs don't have is an association between their brand and a degenerate fucc boi.
The other problem the legacy OEMs have is China has timed their entry into the global markets at the time the market is going through a major transition...
It would be closer to £15k in the UK, because of taxes and dealer markups, but this is what we are now dealing with from China.
I assume that there will be a reason found for it to be non-compliant with European safety regulations, to prevent them being sold in the West, but there’s one hell of a trade war coming over Chinese cars.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I'm pretty confident of two things. First is that the Conservatives will respond to defeat by moving further to the right. Second is that it won't go well for them. Partly because votes gained on the right will be netted out by votes lost on the left. But also becuase, however right wing the Conservatives go, the proper populists will always be able to go a bit further.
My concern is just how right wing Labour are willing to go. The new austerity of SKSs "fiscal rules" will mean another lost generation, another decade or more of the sick man of Europe, and more pandering to bigotry as a sop for declining standards of living. If SKS continues in his current path, I could see the next Labour government being to the right of the Coalition government. If that becomes the "new centre" then the Tories will be allowed to move further rightwards, and the papers and news media will launder that as acceptable as well. There will come a point where Labour lose popularity, and because of FPTP most people will only ever consider the Tories as the second party of government. So I'm not so optimistic that a rightward drift will consign the Tories to unelectablility...
If Starmer moves further to the right, the Lib Dem will fill the gap on the left (ie the centre) with pragmatic non ideological policies and treat the electorate as adults.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I hope you're right. It will doom the Tories for a generation. Under PFTP, an ultra right wing Tory party minus sensible centrist Tories stands no chance of being in government.
Depends on the economy. People thought Thatcher was unelectable against Wilson and Callaghan initially until the strikes and high inflation of the late 1970s saw her win in 1979
Thatcher had a wide appeal. She wasn't ultra right wing.
An ultra right wing Tory party, led by Braverman, would only appeal to the aggrieved working class who want to stop immigrants and all this modern stuff. They will lose sensible one-nation Tories. Tney are a fairly small minority, and under FPTP, will not achieve power.
The LDs current voter coalition ie mainly rich Remainers nationally and NIMBYs in the South locally is a different one from the Blair years when it was mainly anti Iraq war, anti student fees leftwingers.
So only the Greens are able to outflank Starmer Labour from the left now UK wide, the LDs voters are right of even Starmer Labour now
We're going to read an awful lot about the terror now being felt in the hearts of millions who are on paper quite affluent. Nice house, daft car on the drive. But they are indebted up to the eyeballs, and the spikes in interest rates mean they could lose the lot.
In reality many will not. But the realisation that they are not only sailing that close to disaster but also utterly powerless will be saluatory. Especially when they see the party they kept voting for not only doing nothing, but blaming THEM for the mess they are in. With a sneer.
I think it will be worse than that. To the point of systemic effects. The car loans business could go sides ways in a big way, for example. And given how profitable it has been, guess who will have been investing in *that*, eh?
The other big one is the commercial property sector - especially the scale of owning chunks of high streets. Under “proper management”, this is leveraged until the pips squeak. If you think housing costs are nuts, meet some shop keepers who will tell you about their rent increases.
The new car business is totally screwed. Just as the pandemic supply chains get back to something approaching normal, there’s going to be a massive drop in demand from those who have become addicted to leasing a new car every three years when interest rates were on the floor. Add to the legislative changes that now push people towards electric cars, and you have a perfect storm of falling demand, especially for the luxury brands.
I was looking at the Mercedes range yesterday to try and get my head around what their strategy is. There is no doubt that they see electrification as a great opportunity to premiumise - e.g. the EQA starts at £52k, the GLA it is the electric version of starts at £37k.
This creates a gulf in the market which all of the new Chinese brands will happily step into. MG have already shown the way (and remember that MG is owned by the Chinese government via SIAC), others like BYD are coming.
I've recorded a video for Tesla's 20th birthday next Saturday, speculating about how the car market will look on their 40th birthday. And my conclusion is that many of the brands we know today will have disappeared, out-maneuvered by Chinese companies who make the cars people want and can afford. The remaining premium brands will have consolidated and retreated into one big blog making only the top end. A Swatch group for cars if you like.
Yes, the Chinese car brands are starting to arrive where I am. Coming in at 2/3 of the price of Korean brands, close to half the price of the Japanese brands. The European brands are nowhere by comparison, except to be seen as luxury goods. It’s going to be a masssive shift, and electrification is going to accelerate that change.
My Volvo S90 was chinese owned and built. My Tesla Model Y is American owned and chinese built. My brother's MG is chinese owned and built. The perception remains that China isn't luxury and won't be able to compete with western monoliths. This is wrong at a base level, and any of the big car company bosses surrounded by yes men saying that are in trouble.
The other major issue is this: legacy car makers are cynical about EVs. They build EVs converted from their existing products (e.g. EQA from GLA), built in the same manner with a gazillion parts arranged in the way their factories are set up to build. So you get an overly-complex but poorly packaged EV which they then charge a large premium for. So many of the new Chinese brands are ground up EVs, built with far fewer parts (copying the Tesla revolution) and thus cheaper and more profitable whilst being better packaged.
The old marques are in trouble.
An old friend who worked for Tata, for a while, said that being involved in the Tesla tear downs was fascinating. Not just for the insights into Tesla, but also into the ICE automotive mindset faced with EVs.
He is an IT guy, but knows his electronics. He found the ICE trained engineers incredibly dismissive and not interested in electric power train engineering - “Battery and a motor, how hard can that be?”
I went back to the founder's ethos when they started Tesla. A "car manufacturer which is also a technology company". Born out of frustration that a now long-dead company wasn't interested in scaling their new EV sportscar, Eberhard founded Tesla. And then with Elon Musk on board they set off licensing, refining, and then surpassing the AC Propulsion tech which inspired them.
Now it isn't just that their motor and drivetrain package is leading edge, the way it is packaged and assembled is genuinely industry-changing. Everyone else was building mechanical cars the old way - lots of parts packaged to suit the way the engine needs to be stacked. Tesla's small packaging and now the gigacasting process means they can build a highly efficient (in both energy and space usage) powertrain and use minimal parts. Which means big profits. With new chinese manufacturers copying.
One of the great things about PB is that you can always learn something new about the world.
I can now confidently talk about new developments in car manufacturing to people who know nothing about car manufacturing.
Tesla gets endlessly attacked for various reasons. Musk is mad/bad. EVs are crap and will need a £500k battery swap after 3 years. Teslas are terribly built and are Bad Cars.
Easy talking points for people who need string opinions, regardless of facts. Meanwhile Tesla get on with a genuine revolution in how to design and build cars. Whilst their valuation at multiples of the next biggest car manufacturer is probably overblown, the existential threat to VAG, GM, Mercedes etc is real and growing.
Tesla's Model 3/Y is the 21st century equivalent of the Model T Ford. The car which revolutionised the industry. And however bonkers Musk is, its the blank sheet of paper innovations which drive his businesses. Why do I have to package a car like that? Why do I have to use 150 parts when I can use 5? Why can't we use stainless steel for rockets? Why is the idea of launching a swarm of mini satellites impossibly expensive?
"its the blank sheet of paper innovations which drive his businesses. "
I'd argue that it's constant lying that drives his business. He promises so much stuff, way head of time, that does not materialise. He hypes, and the share price goes up. When he does not deliver, the share price starts trickling down. Then he does more hype and he share price shoots up again. Remember the hundreds of thousands of robotaxis that were going to be on the road in 2020, where the owners would earn more from having them as taxis than the car cost? He's hyping them again now, when his 'autopilot' isn't even the best such system on the market.
So much of Tesla's share price is supported by hype: hype over undeliverable 'autopilot'; hype over robotics; hype over ai. They have down well in delivering basic cars; these 'extensions' to their businesses are worryingly cr@p.
I know this will upset some of the Musk fanbois and the Tesla zealots, but it's not 'Musk-time' - it's lies.
I think Musk is a complete twat, so much so that it did put me off getting a Tesla, but get one I did. It is one of the most amazing innovations ever. I have had numerous BMWs, Mercs, and even one very bad Rangerover. None of them are as exciting as the Tesla, because they are all just cars, however sexy. The Tesla is an amazing piece of tech and it accelerates like shit off a shovel, sticks to the road like any supercar and saves me a shedload of tax.
Sorry Tesla haters, you are talking out of your late-adopter arses.
"Tesla haters" Nope. But I am very sceptical about some of the stuff they do, and the way Musk manipulates the share price. I don't see those as positives.
"late-adopter arses" I think you mean: the plebs who cannot afford one. You know, the vast majority of people.
"one of the most amazing innovations ever" You're writing this on the Internet, and you think an electric car is one of the 'most amazing innovations ever' ?
I’ve seen a similar enthusiasm from some other Tesla owners. After ICE, it’s the minimalist thing that hits them - the charging just working.
Another thing I’ve noticed - that a lot of Tesla owners don’t have their phones stuck to the windscreen to do the navigation - the onboard system is actually usable and useful…
If course, if they get hit by the build quality issues (especially true of the older models) that goes away.
EV prices are coming down, quite rapidly. Look at some of the Chinese offerings to see what is coming. Just because legacy auto is trying to get the customers to pay for the changeover + a big profit, doesn’t mean that everyone will. In the Chinese case, they are investing in market share, Amazon style.
Ultimately the price of EVs is driven by battery prices. And they have a long way to fall, just with existing tech.
We're going to read an awful lot about the terror now being felt in the hearts of millions who are on paper quite affluent. Nice house, daft car on the drive. But they are indebted up to the eyeballs, and the spikes in interest rates mean they could lose the lot.
In reality many will not. But the realisation that they are not only sailing that close to disaster but also utterly powerless will be saluatory. Especially when they see the party they kept voting for not only doing nothing, but blaming THEM for the mess they are in. With a sneer.
I think it will be worse than that. To the point of systemic effects. The car loans business could go sides ways in a big way, for example. And given how profitable it has been, guess who will have been investing in *that*, eh?
The other big one is the commercial property sector - especially the scale of owning chunks of high streets. Under “proper management”, this is leveraged until the pips squeak. If you think housing costs are nuts, meet some shop keepers who will tell you about their rent increases.
The new car business is totally screwed. Just as the pandemic supply chains get back to something approaching normal, there’s going to be a massive drop in demand from those who have become addicted to leasing a new car every three years when interest rates were on the floor. Add to the legislative changes that now push people towards electric cars, and you have a perfect storm of falling demand, especially for the luxury brands.
I was looking at the Mercedes range yesterday to try and get my head around what their strategy is. There is no doubt that they see electrification as a great opportunity to premiumise - e.g. the EQA starts at £52k, the GLA it is the electric version of starts at £37k.
This creates a gulf in the market which all of the new Chinese brands will happily step into. MG have already shown the way (and remember that MG is owned by the Chinese government via SIAC), others like BYD are coming.
I've recorded a video for Tesla's 20th birthday next Saturday, speculating about how the car market will look on their 40th birthday. And my conclusion is that many of the brands we know today will have disappeared, out-maneuvered by Chinese companies who make the cars people want and can afford. The remaining premium brands will have consolidated and retreated into one big blog making only the top end. A Swatch group for cars if you like.
Yes, the Chinese car brands are starting to arrive where I am. Coming in at 2/3 of the price of Korean brands, close to half the price of the Japanese brands. The European brands are nowhere by comparison, except to be seen as luxury goods. It’s going to be a masssive shift, and electrification is going to accelerate that change.
My Volvo S90 was chinese owned and built. My Tesla Model Y is American owned and chinese built. My brother's MG is chinese owned and built. The perception remains that China isn't luxury and won't be able to compete with western monoliths. This is wrong at a base level, and any of the big car company bosses surrounded by yes men saying that are in trouble.
The other major issue is this: legacy car makers are cynical about EVs. They build EVs converted from their existing products (e.g. EQA from GLA), built in the same manner with a gazillion parts arranged in the way their factories are set up to build. So you get an overly-complex but poorly packaged EV which they then charge a large premium for. So many of the new Chinese brands are ground up EVs, built with far fewer parts (copying the Tesla revolution) and thus cheaper and more profitable whilst being better packaged.
The old marques are in trouble.
An old friend who worked for Tata, for a while, said that being involved in the Tesla tear downs was fascinating. Not just for the insights into Tesla, but also into the ICE automotive mindset faced with EVs.
He is an IT guy, but knows his electronics. He found the ICE trained engineers incredibly dismissive and not interested in electric power train engineering - “Battery and a motor, how hard can that be?”
Sounds like they only understood the positive bits.
Yes, they only even *notice* half the problem.
It could be terminal.
No charge.
PB: The best place to keep up with current affairs.
We're going to read an awful lot about the terror now being felt in the hearts of millions who are on paper quite affluent. Nice house, daft car on the drive. But they are indebted up to the eyeballs, and the spikes in interest rates mean they could lose the lot.
In reality many will not. But the realisation that they are not only sailing that close to disaster but also utterly powerless will be saluatory. Especially when they see the party they kept voting for not only doing nothing, but blaming THEM for the mess they are in. With a sneer.
I think it will be worse than that. To the point of systemic effects. The car loans business could go sides ways in a big way, for example. And given how profitable it has been, guess who will have been investing in *that*, eh?
The other big one is the commercial property sector - especially the scale of owning chunks of high streets. Under “proper management”, this is leveraged until the pips squeak. If you think housing costs are nuts, meet some shop keepers who will tell you about their rent increases.
The new car business is totally screwed. Just as the pandemic supply chains get back to something approaching normal, there’s going to be a massive drop in demand from those who have become addicted to leasing a new car every three years when interest rates were on the floor. Add to the legislative changes that now push people towards electric cars, and you have a perfect storm of falling demand, especially for the luxury brands.
I was looking at the Mercedes range yesterday to try and get my head around what their strategy is. There is no doubt that they see electrification as a great opportunity to premiumise - e.g. the EQA starts at £52k, the GLA it is the electric version of starts at £37k.
This creates a gulf in the market which all of the new Chinese brands will happily step into. MG have already shown the way (and remember that MG is owned by the Chinese government via SIAC), others like BYD are coming.
I've recorded a video for Tesla's 20th birthday next Saturday, speculating about how the car market will look on their 40th birthday. And my conclusion is that many of the brands we know today will have disappeared, out-maneuvered by Chinese companies who make the cars people want and can afford. The remaining premium brands will have consolidated and retreated into one big blog making only the top end. A Swatch group for cars if you like.
Yes, the Chinese car brands are starting to arrive where I am. Coming in at 2/3 of the price of Korean brands, close to half the price of the Japanese brands. The European brands are nowhere by comparison, except to be seen as luxury goods. It’s going to be a masssive shift, and electrification is going to accelerate that change.
My Volvo S90 was chinese owned and built. My Tesla Model Y is American owned and chinese built. My brother's MG is chinese owned and built. The perception remains that China isn't luxury and won't be able to compete with western monoliths. This is wrong at a base level, and any of the big car company bosses surrounded by yes men saying that are in trouble.
The other major issue is this: legacy car makers are cynical about EVs. They build EVs converted from their existing products (e.g. EQA from GLA), built in the same manner with a gazillion parts arranged in the way their factories are set up to build. So you get an overly-complex but poorly packaged EV which they then charge a large premium for. So many of the new Chinese brands are ground up EVs, built with far fewer parts (copying the Tesla revolution) and thus cheaper and more profitable whilst being better packaged.
The old marques are in trouble.
An old friend who worked for Tata, for a while, said that being involved in the Tesla tear downs was fascinating. Not just for the insights into Tesla, but also into the ICE automotive mindset faced with EVs.
He is an IT guy, but knows his electronics. He found the ICE trained engineers incredibly dismissive and not interested in electric power train engineering - “Battery and a motor, how hard can that be?”
Sounds like they only understood the positive bits.
Yes, they only even *notice* half the problem.
It could be terminal.
No charge.
PB: The best place to keep up with current affairs.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I'm pretty confident of two things. First is that the Conservatives will respond to defeat by moving further to the right. Second is that it won't go well for them. Partly because votes gained on the right will be netted out by votes lost on the left. But also becuase, however right wing the Conservatives go, the proper populists will always be able to go a bit further.
My concern is just how right wing Labour are willing to go. The new austerity of SKSs "fiscal rules" will mean another lost generation, another decade or more of the sick man of Europe, and more pandering to bigotry as a sop for declining standards of living. If SKS continues in his current path, I could see the next Labour government being to the right of the Coalition government. If that becomes the "new centre" then the Tories will be allowed to move further rightwards, and the papers and news media will launder that as acceptable as well. There will come a point where Labour lose popularity, and because of FPTP most people will only ever consider the Tories as the second party of government. So I'm not so optimistic that a rightward drift will consign the Tories to unelectablility...
If Starmer moves further to the right, the Lib Dem will fill the gap on the left (ie the centre) with pragmatic non ideological policies and treat the electorate as adults.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I hope you're right. It will doom the Tories for a generation. Under PFTP, an ultra right wing Tory party minus sensible centrist Tories stands no chance of being in government.
Depends on the economy. People thought Thatcher was unelectable against Wilson and Callaghan initially until the strikes and high inflation of the late 1970s saw her win in 1979
Thatcher had a wide appeal. She wasn't ultra right wing.
An ultra right wing Tory party, led by Braverman, would only appeal to the aggrieved working class who want to stop immigrants and all this modern stuff. They will lose sensible one-nation Tories. Tney are a fairly small minority, and under FPTP, will not achieve power.
A Steve Barclay led Tory party though? Barclay more likely to get to the final 2 amongst Tory MPs than Braverman and then beat Mordaunt or Tugendhat with members
He’s saying (and doing) some quite smart things, William.
"My Father’s house has many rooms; if that were not so, would I have told you that I am going there to prepare a place for you? And if I go and prepare a place for you, I will come back and take you to be with me my father"?
ETA: But yes, if he's committed to it and can contribute to making it happen then good for him.
We're going to read an awful lot about the terror now being felt in the hearts of millions who are on paper quite affluent. Nice house, daft car on the drive. But they are indebted up to the eyeballs, and the spikes in interest rates mean they could lose the lot.
In reality many will not. But the realisation that they are not only sailing that close to disaster but also utterly powerless will be saluatory. Especially when they see the party they kept voting for not only doing nothing, but blaming THEM for the mess they are in. With a sneer.
I think it will be worse than that. To the point of systemic effects. The car loans business could go sides ways in a big way, for example. And given how profitable it has been, guess who will have been investing in *that*, eh?
The other big one is the commercial property sector - especially the scale of owning chunks of high streets. Under “proper management”, this is leveraged until the pips squeak. If you think housing costs are nuts, meet some shop keepers who will tell you about their rent increases.
The new car business is totally screwed. Just as the pandemic supply chains get back to something approaching normal, there’s going to be a massive drop in demand from those who have become addicted to leasing a new car every three years when interest rates were on the floor. Add to the legislative changes that now push people towards electric cars, and you have a perfect storm of falling demand, especially for the luxury brands.
I was looking at the Mercedes range yesterday to try and get my head around what their strategy is. There is no doubt that they see electrification as a great opportunity to premiumise - e.g. the EQA starts at £52k, the GLA it is the electric version of starts at £37k.
This creates a gulf in the market which all of the new Chinese brands will happily step into. MG have already shown the way (and remember that MG is owned by the Chinese government via SIAC), others like BYD are coming.
I've recorded a video for Tesla's 20th birthday next Saturday, speculating about how the car market will look on their 40th birthday. And my conclusion is that many of the brands we know today will have disappeared, out-maneuvered by Chinese companies who make the cars people want and can afford. The remaining premium brands will have consolidated and retreated into one big blog making only the top end. A Swatch group for cars if you like.
Yes, the Chinese car brands are starting to arrive where I am. Coming in at 2/3 of the price of Korean brands, close to half the price of the Japanese brands. The European brands are nowhere by comparison, except to be seen as luxury goods. It’s going to be a masssive shift, and electrification is going to accelerate that change.
My Volvo S90 was chinese owned and built. My Tesla Model Y is American owned and chinese built. My brother's MG is chinese owned and built. The perception remains that China isn't luxury and won't be able to compete with western monoliths. This is wrong at a base level, and any of the big car company bosses surrounded by yes men saying that are in trouble.
The other major issue is this: legacy car makers are cynical about EVs. They build EVs converted from their existing products (e.g. EQA from GLA), built in the same manner with a gazillion parts arranged in the way their factories are set up to build. So you get an overly-complex but poorly packaged EV which they then charge a large premium for. So many of the new Chinese brands are ground up EVs, built with far fewer parts (copying the Tesla revolution) and thus cheaper and more profitable whilst being better packaged.
The old marques are in trouble.
An old friend who worked for Tata, for a while, said that being involved in the Tesla tear downs was fascinating. Not just for the insights into Tesla, but also into the ICE automotive mindset faced with EVs.
He is an IT guy, but knows his electronics. He found the ICE trained engineers incredibly dismissive and not interested in electric power train engineering - “Battery and a motor, how hard can that be?”
I went back to the founder's ethos when they started Tesla. A "car manufacturer which is also a technology company". Born out of frustration that a now long-dead company wasn't interested in scaling their new EV sportscar, Eberhard founded Tesla. And then with Elon Musk on board they set off licensing, refining, and then surpassing the AC Propulsion tech which inspired them.
Now it isn't just that their motor and drivetrain package is leading edge, the way it is packaged and assembled is genuinely industry-changing. Everyone else was building mechanical cars the old way - lots of parts packaged to suit the way the engine needs to be stacked. Tesla's small packaging and now the gigacasting process means they can build a highly efficient (in both energy and space usage) powertrain and use minimal parts. Which means big profits. With new chinese manufacturers copying.
One of the great things about PB is that you can always learn something new about the world.
I can now confidently talk about new developments in car manufacturing to people who know nothing about car manufacturing.
Tesla gets endlessly attacked for various reasons. Musk is mad/bad. EVs are crap and will need a £500k battery swap after 3 years. Teslas are terribly built and are Bad Cars.
Easy talking points for people who need string opinions, regardless of facts. Meanwhile Tesla get on with a genuine revolution in how to design and build cars. Whilst their valuation at multiples of the next biggest car manufacturer is probably overblown, the existential threat to VAG, GM, Mercedes etc is real and growing.
Tesla's Model 3/Y is the 21st century equivalent of the Model T Ford. The car which revolutionised the industry. And however bonkers Musk is, its the blank sheet of paper innovations which drive his businesses. Why do I have to package a car like that? Why do I have to use 150 parts when I can use 5? Why can't we use stainless steel for rockets? Why is the idea of launching a swarm of mini satellites impossibly expensive?
"its the blank sheet of paper innovations which drive his businesses. "
I'd argue that it's constant lying that drives his business. He promises so much stuff, way head of time, that does not materialise. He hypes, and the share price goes up. When he does not deliver, the share price starts trickling down. Then he does more hype and he share price shoots up again. Remember the hundreds of thousands of robotaxis that were going to be on the road in 2020, where the owners would earn more from having them as taxis than the car cost? He's hyping them again now, when his 'autopilot' isn't even the best such system on the market.
So much of Tesla's share price is supported by hype: hype over undeliverable 'autopilot'; hype over robotics; hype over ai. They have down well in delivering basic cars; these 'extensions' to their businesses are worryingly cr@p.
I know this will upset some of the Musk fanbois and the Tesla zealots, but it's not 'Musk-time' - it's lies.
I think Musk is a complete twat, so much so that it did put me off getting a Tesla, but get one I did. It is one of the most amazing innovations ever. I have had numerous BMWs, Mercs, and even one very bad Rangerover. None of them are as exciting as the Tesla, because they are all just cars, however sexy. The Tesla is an amazing piece of tech and it accelerates like shit off a shovel, sticks to the road like any supercar and saves me a shedload of tax.
Sorry Tesla haters, you are talking out of your late-adopter arses.
"Tesla haters" Nope. But I am very sceptical about some of the stuff they do, and the way Musk manipulates the share price. I don't see those as positives.
"late-adopter arses" I think you mean: the plebs who cannot afford one. You know, the vast majority of people.
"one of the most amazing innovations ever" You're writing this on the Internet, and you think an electric car is one of the 'most amazing innovations ever' ?
1) I have mentioned my view of Musk
2) Yawn. Chippy inverted snobbery don't impress me much. There are loads of things that the vast majority of people sadly can't afford, but it doesn't stop us admiring them or valuing them. Besides, Tesla will soon launch a car which will be pretty competitive - a family hatchback, roughly same cost as a Ford Focus.
3)Please note "one of". And yes. If anyone had said even 10 years ago that there would, in ten years time, be an electric car that can go for over 300 miles on a single charge, do 0-60 in three seconds and have a semi-autonomous driving mode that can decide on lane changing and still have one of the highest safety records on the roads AND will be made by a company that has only just recently come into existence AND has one of the highest performing sales of one of its models in Europe against all the pre-exiting car manufacturers.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I'm pretty confident of two things. First is that the Conservatives will respond to defeat by moving further to the right. Second is that it won't go well for them. Partly because votes gained on the right will be netted out by votes lost on the left. But also becuase, however right wing the Conservatives go, the proper populists will always be able to go a bit further.
My concern is just how right wing Labour are willing to go. The new austerity of SKSs "fiscal rules" will mean another lost generation, another decade or more of the sick man of Europe, and more pandering to bigotry as a sop for declining standards of living. If SKS continues in his current path, I could see the next Labour government being to the right of the Coalition government. If that becomes the "new centre" then the Tories will be allowed to move further rightwards, and the papers and news media will launder that as acceptable as well. There will come a point where Labour lose popularity, and because of FPTP most people will only ever consider the Tories as the second party of government. So I'm not so optimistic that a rightward drift will consign the Tories to unelectablility...
If Starmer moves further to the right, the Lib Dem will fill the gap on the left (ie the centre) with pragmatic non ideological policies and treat the electorate as adults.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I hope you're right. It will doom the Tories for a generation. Under PFTP, an ultra right wing Tory party minus sensible centrist Tories stands no chance of being in government.
Depends on the economy. People thought Thatcher was unelectable against Wilson and Callaghan initially until the strikes and high inflation of the late 1970s saw her win in 1979
Thatcher had a wide appeal. She wasn't ultra right wing.
An ultra right wing Tory party, led by Braverman, would only appeal to the aggrieved working class who want to stop immigrants and all this modern stuff. They will lose sensible one-nation Tories. Tney are a fairly small minority, and under FPTP, will not achieve power.
A Steve Barclay led Tory party though? Barclay more likely to get to the final 2 amongst Tory MPs than Braverman and then beat Mordaunt or Tugendhat with members
Yes, he could come through the middle - his bluff style may not inspire enthusiasm but he has all the middling qualities: sensible, measured, reliable, … lalala, in short, sound.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I'm pretty confident of two things. First is that the Conservatives will respond to defeat by moving further to the right. Second is that it won't go well for them. Partly because votes gained on the right will be netted out by votes lost on the left. But also becuase, however right wing the Conservatives go, the proper populists will always be able to go a bit further.
My concern is just how right wing Labour are willing to go. The new austerity of SKSs "fiscal rules" will mean another lost generation, another decade or more of the sick man of Europe, and more pandering to bigotry as a sop for declining standards of living. If SKS continues in his current path, I could see the next Labour government being to the right of the Coalition government. If that becomes the "new centre" then the Tories will be allowed to move further rightwards, and the papers and news media will launder that as acceptable as well. There will come a point where Labour lose popularity, and because of FPTP most people will only ever consider the Tories as the second party of government. So I'm not so optimistic that a rightward drift will consign the Tories to unelectablility...
If Starmer moves further to the right, the Lib Dem will fill the gap on the left (ie the centre) with pragmatic non ideological policies and treat the electorate as adults.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I hope you're right. It will doom the Tories for a generation. Under PFTP, an ultra right wing Tory party minus sensible centrist Tories stands no chance of being in government.
Depends on the economy. People thought Thatcher was unelectable against Wilson and Callaghan initially until the strikes and high inflation of the late 1970s saw her win in 1979
Thatcher had a wide appeal. She wasn't ultra right wing.
An ultra right wing Tory party, led by Braverman, would only appeal to the aggrieved working class who want to stop immigrants and all this modern stuff. They will lose sensible one-nation Tories. Tney are a fairly small minority, and under FPTP, will not achieve power.
The LDs current voter coalition ie mainly rich Remainers nationally and NIMBYs in the South locally is a different one from the Blair years when it was mainly anti Iraq war, anti student fees leftwingers.
So only the Greens are able to outflank Starmer Labour from the left now UK wide, the LDs voters are right of even Starmer Labour now
In many cases LD voters like Starmer more than Labour voters
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I'm pretty confident of two things. First is that the Conservatives will respond to defeat by moving further to the right. Second is that it won't go well for them. Partly because votes gained on the right will be netted out by votes lost on the left. But also becuase, however right wing the Conservatives go, the proper populists will always be able to go a bit further.
My concern is just how right wing Labour are willing to go. The new austerity of SKSs "fiscal rules" will mean another lost generation, another decade or more of the sick man of Europe, and more pandering to bigotry as a sop for declining standards of living. If SKS continues in his current path, I could see the next Labour government being to the right of the Coalition government. If that becomes the "new centre" then the Tories will be allowed to move further rightwards, and the papers and news media will launder that as acceptable as well. There will come a point where Labour lose popularity, and because of FPTP most people will only ever consider the Tories as the second party of government. So I'm not so optimistic that a rightward drift will consign the Tories to unelectablility...
If Starmer moves further to the right, the Lib Dem will fill the gap on the left (ie the centre) with pragmatic non ideological policies and treat the electorate as adults.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I hope you're right. It will doom the Tories for a generation. Under PFTP, an ultra right wing Tory party minus sensible centrist Tories stands no chance of being in government.
Depends on the economy. People thought Thatcher was unelectable against Wilson and Callaghan initially until the strikes and high inflation of the late 1970s saw her win in 1979
Thatcher had a wide appeal. She wasn't ultra right wing.
An ultra right wing Tory party, led by Braverman, would only appeal to the aggrieved working class who want to stop immigrants and all this modern stuff. They will lose sensible one-nation Tories. Tney are a fairly small minority, and under FPTP, will not achieve power.
The LDs current voter coalition ie mainly rich Remainers nationally and NIMBYs in the South locally is a different one from the Blair years when it was mainly anti Iraq war, anti student fees leftwingers.
So only the Greens are able to outflank Starmer Labour from the left now UK wide, the LDs voters are right of even Starmer Labour now
In many cases LD voters like Starmer more than Labour voters
We're going to read an awful lot about the terror now being felt in the hearts of millions who are on paper quite affluent. Nice house, daft car on the drive. But they are indebted up to the eyeballs, and the spikes in interest rates mean they could lose the lot.
In reality many will not. But the realisation that they are not only sailing that close to disaster but also utterly powerless will be saluatory. Especially when they see the party they kept voting for not only doing nothing, but blaming THEM for the mess they are in. With a sneer.
I think it will be worse than that. To the point of systemic effects. The car loans business could go sides ways in a big way, for example. And given how profitable it has been, guess who will have been investing in *that*, eh?
The other big one is the commercial property sector - especially the scale of owning chunks of high streets. Under “proper management”, this is leveraged until the pips squeak. If you think housing costs are nuts, meet some shop keepers who will tell you about their rent increases.
The new car business is totally screwed. Just as the pandemic supply chains get back to something approaching normal, there’s going to be a massive drop in demand from those who have become addicted to leasing a new car every three years when interest rates were on the floor. Add to the legislative changes that now push people towards electric cars, and you have a perfect storm of falling demand, especially for the luxury brands.
I was looking at the Mercedes range yesterday to try and get my head around what their strategy is. There is no doubt that they see electrification as a great opportunity to premiumise - e.g. the EQA starts at £52k, the GLA it is the electric version of starts at £37k.
This creates a gulf in the market which all of the new Chinese brands will happily step into. MG have already shown the way (and remember that MG is owned by the Chinese government via SIAC), others like BYD are coming.
I've recorded a video for Tesla's 20th birthday next Saturday, speculating about how the car market will look on their 40th birthday. And my conclusion is that many of the brands we know today will have disappeared, out-maneuvered by Chinese companies who make the cars people want and can afford. The remaining premium brands will have consolidated and retreated into one big blog making only the top end. A Swatch group for cars if you like.
Yes, the Chinese car brands are starting to arrive where I am. Coming in at 2/3 of the price of Korean brands, close to half the price of the Japanese brands. The European brands are nowhere by comparison, except to be seen as luxury goods. It’s going to be a masssive shift, and electrification is going to accelerate that change.
My Volvo S90 was chinese owned and built. My Tesla Model Y is American owned and chinese built. My brother's MG is chinese owned and built. The perception remains that China isn't luxury and won't be able to compete with western monoliths. This is wrong at a base level, and any of the big car company bosses surrounded by yes men saying that are in trouble.
The other major issue is this: legacy car makers are cynical about EVs. They build EVs converted from their existing products (e.g. EQA from GLA), built in the same manner with a gazillion parts arranged in the way their factories are set up to build. So you get an overly-complex but poorly packaged EV which they then charge a large premium for. So many of the new Chinese brands are ground up EVs, built with far fewer parts (copying the Tesla revolution) and thus cheaper and more profitable whilst being better packaged.
The old marques are in trouble.
Not those (like VW) with deep enough pockets. They are building completely new factories and completely new platforms on precisely the same basis.
The number and scale if new production facilities being built in both Europe and the US is astonishing. Not so much here.
VAG are a way off, and spewing out vehicles in the wrong direction. They use a platform called MEB, which still uses the traditional engine under bonnet configuration - which in an EV is a motor / invertor stack. Can't compete on space with the new manufacturers not hobbled by that design ethos.
Perhaps their next platform will try and catch-up. But how far behind will they be, and how much cash will they be spending on changing the entire way they build cars? And thus how successful will they be hawking what is standard kit elsewhere as extras and a pointless service plan?
We'll see. The new platform - SSP, which unlike the current two platforms will provide for every vehicle in the range - is due in three years' time, presumably to coincide with the new factories coming on stream. Point is no one yet has anywhere near sufficient capacity to provide, even in recession, for the global car market. It's all still up for grabs, and what rolls out from the factories now building (both battery and vehicle) will decide who survives.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I'm pretty confident of two things. First is that the Conservatives will respond to defeat by moving further to the right. Second is that it won't go well for them. Partly because votes gained on the right will be netted out by votes lost on the left. But also becuase, however right wing the Conservatives go, the proper populists will always be able to go a bit further.
My concern is just how right wing Labour are willing to go. The new austerity of SKSs "fiscal rules" will mean another lost generation, another decade or more of the sick man of Europe, and more pandering to bigotry as a sop for declining standards of living. If SKS continues in his current path, I could see the next Labour government being to the right of the Coalition government. If that becomes the "new centre" then the Tories will be allowed to move further rightwards, and the papers and news media will launder that as acceptable as well. There will come a point where Labour lose popularity, and because of FPTP most people will only ever consider the Tories as the second party of government. So I'm not so optimistic that a rightward drift will consign the Tories to unelectablility...
If Starmer moves further to the right, the Lib Dem will fill the gap on the left (ie the centre) with pragmatic non ideological policies and treat the electorate as adults.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I hope you're right. It will doom the Tories for a generation. Under PFTP, an ultra right wing Tory party minus sensible centrist Tories stands no chance of being in government.
Depends on the economy. People thought Thatcher was unelectable against Wilson and Callaghan initially until the strikes and high inflation of the late 1970s saw her win in 1979
Thatcher had a wide appeal. She wasn't ultra right wing.
An ultra right wing Tory party, led by Braverman, would only appeal to the aggrieved working class who want to stop immigrants and all this modern stuff. They will lose sensible one-nation Tories. Tney are a fairly small minority, and under FPTP, will not achieve power.
A Steve Barclay led Tory party though? Barclay more likely to get to the final 2 amongst Tory MPs than Braverman and then beat Mordaunt or Tugendhat with members
I am sorry to be rude but you really have lost the plot since you fell in love with the Lying Clown. If you think Barclay is the answer to Conservative Party woes you are completely myopic.
I note the Doctors have dropped from an initial ludicrous 35% to an implied 8% (35% over 4 years is 8% annualised). The Gov't is now at 6% - so it strikes me they're all rather closer than has been the case and is presented on the news.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I'm pretty confident of two things. First is that the Conservatives will respond to defeat by moving further to the right. Second is that it won't go well for them. Partly because votes gained on the right will be netted out by votes lost on the left. But also becuase, however right wing the Conservatives go, the proper populists will always be able to go a bit further.
My concern is just how right wing Labour are willing to go. The new austerity of SKSs "fiscal rules" will mean another lost generation, another decade or more of the sick man of Europe, and more pandering to bigotry as a sop for declining standards of living. If SKS continues in his current path, I could see the next Labour government being to the right of the Coalition government. If that becomes the "new centre" then the Tories will be allowed to move further rightwards, and the papers and news media will launder that as acceptable as well. There will come a point where Labour lose popularity, and because of FPTP most people will only ever consider the Tories as the second party of government. So I'm not so optimistic that a rightward drift will consign the Tories to unelectablility...
If Starmer moves further to the right, the Lib Dem will fill the gap on the left (ie the centre) with pragmatic non ideological policies and treat the electorate as adults.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I hope you're right. It will doom the Tories for a generation. Under PFTP, an ultra right wing Tory party minus sensible centrist Tories stands no chance of being in government.
Depends on the economy. People thought Thatcher was unelectable against Wilson and Callaghan initially until the strikes and high inflation of the late 1970s saw her win in 1979
Thatcher had a wide appeal. She wasn't ultra right wing.
An ultra right wing Tory party, led by Braverman, would only appeal to the aggrieved working class who want to stop immigrants and all this modern stuff. They will lose sensible one-nation Tories. Tney are a fairly small minority, and under FPTP, will not achieve power.
A Steve Barclay led Tory party though? Barclay more likely to get to the final 2 amongst Tory MPs than Braverman and then beat Mordaunt or Tugendhat with members
I am sorry to be rude but you really have lost the plot since you fell in love with the Lying Clown. If you think Barclay is the answer to Conservative Party woes you are completely myopic.
Depends what Milfy Mordaunt is wearing though. Pop a big weapon in her hands and the gig's as good as won.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I'm pretty confident of two things. First is that the Conservatives will respond to defeat by moving further to the right. Second is that it won't go well for them. Partly because votes gained on the right will be netted out by votes lost on the left. But also becuase, however right wing the Conservatives go, the proper populists will always be able to go a bit further.
My concern is just how right wing Labour are willing to go. The new austerity of SKSs "fiscal rules" will mean another lost generation, another decade or more of the sick man of Europe, and more pandering to bigotry as a sop for declining standards of living. If SKS continues in his current path, I could see the next Labour government being to the right of the Coalition government. If that becomes the "new centre" then the Tories will be allowed to move further rightwards, and the papers and news media will launder that as acceptable as well. There will come a point where Labour lose popularity, and because of FPTP most people will only ever consider the Tories as the second party of government. So I'm not so optimistic that a rightward drift will consign the Tories to unelectablility...
If Starmer moves further to the right, the Lib Dem will fill the gap on the left (ie the centre) with pragmatic non ideological policies and treat the electorate as adults.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I hope you're right. It will doom the Tories for a generation. Under PFTP, an ultra right wing Tory party minus sensible centrist Tories stands no chance of being in government.
Depends on the economy. People thought Thatcher was unelectable against Wilson and Callaghan initially until the strikes and high inflation of the late 1970s saw her win in 1979
Thatcher had a wide appeal. She wasn't ultra right wing.
An ultra right wing Tory party, led by Braverman, would only appeal to the aggrieved working class who want to stop immigrants and all this modern stuff. They will lose sensible one-nation Tories. Tney are a fairly small minority, and under FPTP, will not achieve power.
The LDs current voter coalition ie mainly rich Remainers nationally and NIMBYs in the South locally is a different one from the Blair years when it was mainly anti Iraq war, anti student fees leftwingers.
So only the Greens are able to outflank Starmer Labour from the left now UK wide, the LDs voters are right of even Starmer Labour now
In many cases LD voters like Starmer more than Labour voters
Labour members, certainly.
I mean, looking at many of the Yougov trackers he outperforms amongst LDs compared to Lab - more LDs think he should stay on as leader of the Labour party than Lab do:
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I'm pretty confident of two things. First is that the Conservatives will respond to defeat by moving further to the right. Second is that it won't go well for them. Partly because votes gained on the right will be netted out by votes lost on the left. But also becuase, however right wing the Conservatives go, the proper populists will always be able to go a bit further.
My concern is just how right wing Labour are willing to go. The new austerity of SKSs "fiscal rules" will mean another lost generation, another decade or more of the sick man of Europe, and more pandering to bigotry as a sop for declining standards of living. If SKS continues in his current path, I could see the next Labour government being to the right of the Coalition government. If that becomes the "new centre" then the Tories will be allowed to move further rightwards, and the papers and news media will launder that as acceptable as well. There will come a point where Labour lose popularity, and because of FPTP most people will only ever consider the Tories as the second party of government. So I'm not so optimistic that a rightward drift will consign the Tories to unelectablility...
If Starmer moves further to the right, the Lib Dem will fill the gap on the left (ie the centre) with pragmatic non ideological policies and treat the electorate as adults.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I hope you're right. It will doom the Tories for a generation. Under PFTP, an ultra right wing Tory party minus sensible centrist Tories stands no chance of being in government.
Depends on the economy. People thought Thatcher was unelectable against Wilson and Callaghan initially until the strikes and high inflation of the late 1970s saw her win in 1979
Thatcher had a wide appeal. She wasn't ultra right wing.
An ultra right wing Tory party, led by Braverman, would only appeal to the aggrieved working class who want to stop immigrants and all this modern stuff. They will lose sensible one-nation Tories. Tney are a fairly small minority, and under FPTP, will not achieve power.
A Steve Barclay led Tory party though? Barclay more likely to get to the final 2 amongst Tory MPs than Braverman and then beat Mordaunt or Tugendhat with members
The catch is that you need 1/3 of Conservative MPs to get through to the members ballot. It's easy to see one sensible Conservative doing that, harder to see two sensibles both managing it.
And if the last nutter standing (Braverman presumably) can gather support of 1/3 of Conservative MPs, they get onto the final ballot and then they win with the membership.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I'm pretty confident of two things. First is that the Conservatives will respond to defeat by moving further to the right. Second is that it won't go well for them. Partly because votes gained on the right will be netted out by votes lost on the left. But also becuase, however right wing the Conservatives go, the proper populists will always be able to go a bit further.
My concern is just how right wing Labour are willing to go. The new austerity of SKSs "fiscal rules" will mean another lost generation, another decade or more of the sick man of Europe, and more pandering to bigotry as a sop for declining standards of living. If SKS continues in his current path, I could see the next Labour government being to the right of the Coalition government. If that becomes the "new centre" then the Tories will be allowed to move further rightwards, and the papers and news media will launder that as acceptable as well. There will come a point where Labour lose popularity, and because of FPTP most people will only ever consider the Tories as the second party of government. So I'm not so optimistic that a rightward drift will consign the Tories to unelectablility...
If Starmer moves further to the right, the Lib Dem will fill the gap on the left (ie the centre) with pragmatic non ideological policies and treat the electorate as adults.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I hope you're right. It will doom the Tories for a generation. Under PFTP, an ultra right wing Tory party minus sensible centrist Tories stands no chance of being in government.
Depends on the economy. People thought Thatcher was unelectable against Wilson and Callaghan initially until the strikes and high inflation of the late 1970s saw her win in 1979
Thatcher had a wide appeal. She wasn't ultra right wing.
An ultra right wing Tory party, led by Braverman, would only appeal to the aggrieved working class who want to stop immigrants and all this modern stuff. They will lose sensible one-nation Tories. Tney are a fairly small minority, and under FPTP, will not achieve power.
A Steve Barclay led Tory party though? Barclay more likely to get to the final 2 amongst Tory MPs than Braverman and then beat Mordaunt or TugendhBat with members
Yes, he could come through the middle - his bluff style may not inspire enthusiasm but he has all the middling qualities: sensible, measured, reliable, … lalala, in short, sound.
Barclay is like Rorschach from Watchmen. You can look into his face and see anything you want.
I see doomed, middle aged photocopier sales rep but others can see potential Prime Minister.
A few comments, which I shared with a few friends yesterday.
Needed explanations: "Vory", the thieves,- the current regime, VVP- Vladimir Vladimirovitch Putin, EVP,- Evgeny Viktorovitch Prigrozhin.
This was a sort of fake coup. The column may not have left Rostov but somebody shot down the helos and the SIGINT plane.
1) a lot less to Wagner than conventional wisdom has believed. Prigrozhin is a sock puppet. This was not Putin v Prigrozhin, this was one part of the inner circle of the Vory attacking another using Prigrozhin as a proxy. Putin was forced to make a choice, but his delay nearly created a terminal crisis, and the inner circle of the Vory will take note. PM Mistushin is in trouble and obviously those who took discreet holidays in the last 48 hours. The meeting of the security council this week will include a major reshuffle of the government. What is wrong with VVP? He seems totally listless. I think the mooted meeting of the Security Council this week might even see an open challenge, and it is not certain that he can hang on. Could it be that he really is ill?
Clearly the Vory are close to breaking themselves. Navalny might be on the plane to Moscow within a week at this rate.
2) The real is that Shoigu and Gerasimov are now out. The “uprising” was over the moment that deal was done.
Cui Bono? Surovikin and the FSB. Who loses? Draw your own conclusions, but a negative round for VVP.
Reveals that the fake Union Presidency does have a purpose in the real world- reversion to a higher authority when the Vory are deadlocked. However Luko did not do the deal, The inner circle, possibly led by Patrushev, did.
Some respect from the Vory, for bravery of EVP which is why, so far, they let him live, even though Prigrozhin was not inside the inner circle of the Vory, the code still covers him, and the inner circle realized that he (EVP) had dealt with too much in Bakhmut, had cracked and it was time to get him out.
3) Ukraine needs more help to win this war, and Enerhodar is in terrible danger. Beijing may have lost Mistushin (it remains to be seen if he can stay in place, I´m guessing no), but Luko has really come good for them. I think China may be calling at least some of the shots here, which is a bit reassuring, since they have already spoken openly against any Russian nuclear options.
The risks are indeed terrifying. As I understand it, the threat of NATO full on retaliation for any nuclear move includes radiological attacks (i.e. Enerhodar) as well as any use of n-weapons, but I think it would be well to convey this by any means possible. They question now is… to whom? Minister of Defence under house arrest, Chief of Defence Staff missing in action, President´s whereabouts unknown. Meanwhile 6 nuclear reactors are under the control of drunken morons who enjoy playing with matches.
I certainly am praying.
If Shoigu and Gerasimov really are out, which they don't seem to be at all, then the Prigozhin rebellion succeeded.
As for taking discreet holidays, you think having all the siloviks saying stuff while Prigozhin was on the move would have been a sign of strength?
This "code" crap. You're still covered by a thieves' code if you blow your mates' gate up and threaten to bulldoze his house down? Must be quite some code. What a shame for Bugsy Siegel that Meyer Lansky didn't keep to a "code".
The rumours about Shoigu were spread by pro-government guys and it's likely that the target market was Wagner, in particular hardliners who were open to the idea that Prigozhin was selling them down the river.
It's possible Shoigu will be retired within a week or so, but at the moment I think it's highly unlikely.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I'm pretty confident of two things. First is that the Conservatives will respond to defeat by moving further to the right. Second is that it won't go well for them. Partly because votes gained on the right will be netted out by votes lost on the left. But also becuase, however right wing the Conservatives go, the proper populists will always be able to go a bit further.
My concern is just how right wing Labour are willing to go. The new austerity of SKSs "fiscal rules" will mean another lost generation, another decade or more of the sick man of Europe, and more pandering to bigotry as a sop for declining standards of living. If SKS continues in his current path, I could see the next Labour government being to the right of the Coalition government. If that becomes the "new centre" then the Tories will be allowed to move further rightwards, and the papers and news media will launder that as acceptable as well. There will come a point where Labour lose popularity, and because of FPTP most people will only ever consider the Tories as the second party of government. So I'm not so optimistic that a rightward drift will consign the Tories to unelectablility...
If Starmer moves further to the right, the Lib Dem will fill the gap on the left (ie the centre) with pragmatic non ideological policies and treat the electorate as adults.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I hope you're right. It will doom the Tories for a generation. Under PFTP, an ultra right wing Tory party minus sensible centrist Tories stands no chance of being in government.
Depends on the economy. People thought Thatcher was unelectable against Wilson and Callaghan initially until the strikes and high inflation of the late 1970s saw her win in 1979
Thatcher had a wide appeal. She wasn't ultra right wing.
An ultra right wing Tory party, led by Braverman, would only appeal to the aggrieved working class who want to stop immigrants and all this modern stuff. They will lose sensible one-nation Tories. Tney are a fairly small minority, and under FPTP, will not achieve power.
A Steve Barclay led Tory party though? Barclay more likely to get to the final 2 amongst Tory MPs than Braverman and then beat Mordaunt or Tugendhat with members
I am sorry to be rude but you really have lost the plot since you fell in love with the Lying Clown. If you think Barclay is the answer to Conservative Party woes you are completely myopic.
Barclay would be poor choice, but you do need to remember that the Tory electorate has form at that. Worth a punt for next leader IMO.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I'm pretty confident of two things. First is that the Conservatives will respond to defeat by moving further to the right. Second is that it won't go well for them. Partly because votes gained on the right will be netted out by votes lost on the left. But also becuase, however right wing the Conservatives go, the proper populists will always be able to go a bit further.
My concern is just how right wing Labour are willing to go. The new austerity of SKSs "fiscal rules" will mean another lost generation, another decade or more of the sick man of Europe, and more pandering to bigotry as a sop for declining standards of living. If SKS continues in his current path, I could see the next Labour government being to the right of the Coalition government. If that becomes the "new centre" then the Tories will be allowed to move further rightwards, and the papers and news media will launder that as acceptable as well. There will come a point where Labour lose popularity, and because of FPTP most people will only ever consider the Tories as the second party of government. So I'm not so optimistic that a rightward drift will consign the Tories to unelectablility...
If Starmer moves further to the right, the Lib Dem will fill the gap on the left (ie the centre) with pragmatic non ideological policies and treat the electorate as adults.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I hope you're right. It will doom the Tories for a generation. Under PFTP, an ultra right wing Tory party minus sensible centrist Tories stands no chance of being in government.
Depends on the economy. People thought Thatcher was unelectable against Wilson and Callaghan initially until the strikes and high inflation of the late 1970s saw her win in 1979
Thatcher had a wide appeal. She wasn't ultra right wing.
An ultra right wing Tory party, led by Braverman, would only appeal to the aggrieved working class who want to stop immigrants and all this modern stuff. They will lose sensible one-nation Tories. Tney are a fairly small minority, and under FPTP, will not achieve power.
A Steve Barclay led Tory party though? Barclay more likely to get to the final 2 amongst Tory MPs than Braverman and then beat Mordaunt or TugendhBat with members
Yes, he could come through the middle - his bluff style may not inspire enthusiasm but he has all the middling qualities: sensible, measured, reliable, … lalala, in short, sound.
Barclay is like Rorschach from Watchmen. You can look into his face and see anything you want.
I see doomed, middle aged photocopier sales rep but others can see potential Prime Minister.
If he is anything like Rorschach from Watchmen then we would be in for a wild ride, with him leading a major political party…
He’s saying (and doing) some quite smart things, William.
I imagine if it was a) Meghan Markle; or b) Emma Thompson doing the same thing there would be a different reaction.
Proving what I'm not sure but there would be.
It's not complicated. How people react to what public figures say is based on their assessment of their performance in life so far. A Boris plan to end corruption in public life, or a Jezza plan to create a trillion pound Apple type company would meet with some scepticism.
No-one thinks William and co can literally end homelessness, but people may think he actually cares about the matter and intends a long term effort to make a difference.
A few comments, which I shared with a few friends yesterday.
Needed explanations: "Vory", the thieves,- the current regime, VVP- Vladimir Vladimirovitch Putin, EVP,- Evgeny Viktorovitch Prigrozhin.
This was a sort of fake coup. The column may not have left Rostov but somebody shot down the helos and the SIGINT plane.
1) a lot less to Wagner than conventional wisdom has believed. Prigrozhin is a sock puppet. This was not Putin v Prigrozhin, this was one part of the inner circle of the Vory attacking another using Prigrozhin as a proxy. Putin was forced to make a choice, but his delay nearly created a terminal crisis, and the inner circle of the Vory will take note. PM Mistushin is in trouble and obviously those who took discreet holidays in the last 48 hours. The meeting of the security council this week will include a major reshuffle of the government. What is wrong with VVP? He seems totally listless. I think the mooted meeting of the Security Council this week might even see an open challenge, and it is not certain that he can hang on. Could it be that he really is ill?
Clearly the Vory are close to breaking themselves. Navalny might be on the plane to Moscow within a week at this rate.
2) The real is that Shoigu and Gerasimov are now out. The “uprising” was over the moment that deal was done.
Cui Bono? Surovikin and the FSB. Who loses? Draw your own conclusions, but a negative round for VVP.
Reveals that the fake Union Presidency does have a purpose in the real world- reversion to a higher authority when the Vory are deadlocked. However Luko did not do the deal, The inner circle, possibly led by Patrushev, did.
Some respect from the Vory, for bravery of EVP which is why, so far, they let him live, even though Prigrozhin was not inside the inner circle of the Vory, the code still covers him, and the inner circle realized that he (EVP) had dealt with too much in Bakhmut, had cracked and it was time to get him out.
3) Ukraine needs more help to win this war, and Enerhodar is in terrible danger. Beijing may have lost Mistushin (it remains to be seen if he can stay in place, I´m guessing no), but Luko has really come good for them. I think China may be calling at least some of the shots here, which is a bit reassuring, since they have already spoken openly against any Russian nuclear options.
The risks are indeed terrifying. As I understand it, the threat of NATO full on retaliation for any nuclear move includes radiological attacks (i.e. Enerhodar) as well as any use of n-weapons, but I think it would be well to convey this by any means possible. They question now is… to whom? Minister of Defence under house arrest, Chief of Defence Staff missing in action, President´s whereabouts unknown. Meanwhile 6 nuclear reactors are under the control of drunken morons who enjoy playing with matches.
I certainly am praying.
If Shoigu and Gerasimov really are out, which they don't seem to be at all, then the Prigozhin rebellion succeeded.
As for taking discreet holidays, you think having all the siloviks saying stuff while Prigozhin was on the move would have been a sign of strength?
This "code" crap. You're still covered by a thieves' code if you blow your mates' gate up and threaten to bulldoze his house down? Must be quite some code. What a shame for Bugsy Siegel that Meyer Lansky didn't keep to a "code".
Point of order - Meyer Lansky and chums *did* keep to the mob code over Bugsy Siegel.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I'm pretty confident of two things. First is that the Conservatives will respond to defeat by moving further to the right. Second is that it won't go well for them. Partly because votes gained on the right will be netted out by votes lost on the left. But also becuase, however right wing the Conservatives go, the proper populists will always be able to go a bit further.
My concern is just how right wing Labour are willing to go. The new austerity of SKSs "fiscal rules" will mean another lost generation, another decade or more of the sick man of Europe, and more pandering to bigotry as a sop for declining standards of living. If SKS continues in his current path, I could see the next Labour government being to the right of the Coalition government. If that becomes the "new centre" then the Tories will be allowed to move further rightwards, and the papers and news media will launder that as acceptable as well. There will come a point where Labour lose popularity, and because of FPTP most people will only ever consider the Tories as the second party of government. So I'm not so optimistic that a rightward drift will consign the Tories to unelectablility...
If Starmer moves further to the right, the Lib Dem will fill the gap on the left (ie the centre) with pragmatic non ideological policies and treat the electorate as adults.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I hope you're right. It will doom the Tories for a generation. Under PFTP, an ultra right wing Tory party minus sensible centrist Tories stands no chance of being in government.
Depends on the economy. People thought Thatcher was unelectable against Wilson and Callaghan initially until the strikes and high inflation of the late 1970s saw her win in 1979
Thatcher had a wide appeal. She wasn't ultra right wing.
An ultra right wing Tory party, led by Braverman, would only appeal to the aggrieved working class who want to stop immigrants and all this modern stuff. They will lose sensible one-nation Tories. Tney are a fairly small minority, and under FPTP, will not achieve power.
A Steve Barclay led Tory party though? Barclay more likely to get to the final 2 amongst Tory MPs than Braverman and then beat Mordaunt or TugendhBat with members
Yes, he could come through the middle - his bluff style may not inspire enthusiasm but he has all the middling qualities: sensible, measured, reliable, … lalala, in short, sound.
Barclay is like Rorschach from Watchmen. You can look into his face and see anything you want.
I see doomed, middle aged photocopier sales rep but others can see potential Prime Minister.
If he is anything like Rorschach from Watchmen then we would be in for a wild ride, with him leading a major political party…
Hustings should be fun.
...Moore stated that Rorschach was created as a way of exploring what an archetypical Batman-type character—a driven, vengeance-fueled vigilante—would be like in the real world. He concluded that the short answer was "a nutcase". Moore also stated that the tone of Rorschach's diary was inspired by the Son of Sam letters David Berkowitz sent to the newspapers, and that his speech patterns were based on Herbie the Fat Fury...
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I'm pretty confident of two things. First is that the Conservatives will respond to defeat by moving further to the right. Second is that it won't go well for them. Partly because votes gained on the right will be netted out by votes lost on the left. But also becuase, however right wing the Conservatives go, the proper populists will always be able to go a bit further.
My concern is just how right wing Labour are willing to go. The new austerity of SKSs "fiscal rules" will mean another lost generation, another decade or more of the sick man of Europe, and more pandering to bigotry as a sop for declining standards of living. If SKS continues in his current path, I could see the next Labour government being to the right of the Coalition government. If that becomes the "new centre" then the Tories will be allowed to move further rightwards, and the papers and news media will launder that as acceptable as well. There will come a point where Labour lose popularity, and because of FPTP most people will only ever consider the Tories as the second party of government. So I'm not so optimistic that a rightward drift will consign the Tories to unelectablility...
If Starmer moves further to the right, the Lib Dem will fill the gap on the left (ie the centre) with pragmatic non ideological policies and treat the electorate as adults.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I hope you're right. It will doom the Tories for a generation. Under PFTP, an ultra right wing Tory party minus sensible centrist Tories stands no chance of being in government.
Depends on the economy. People thought Thatcher was unelectable against Wilson and Callaghan initially until the strikes and high inflation of the late 1970s saw her win in 1979
Thatcher had a wide appeal. She wasn't ultra right wing.
An ultra right wing Tory party, led by Braverman, would only appeal to the aggrieved working class who want to stop immigrants and all this modern stuff. They will lose sensible one-nation Tories. Tney are a fairly small minority, and under FPTP, will not achieve power.
A Steve Barclay led Tory party though? Barclay more likely to get to the final 2 amongst Tory MPs than Braverman and then beat Mordaunt or Tugendhat with members
I am sorry to be rude but you really have lost the plot since you fell in love with the Lying Clown. If you think Barclay is the answer to Conservative Party woes you are completely myopic.
Barclay would be poor choice, but you do need to remember that the Tory electorate has form at that. Worth a punt for next leader IMO.
Genuinely intrigued by who the 'good choice' here would be.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I'm pretty confident of two things. First is that the Conservatives will respond to defeat by moving further to the right. Second is that it won't go well for them. Partly because votes gained on the right will be netted out by votes lost on the left. But also becuase, however right wing the Conservatives go, the proper populists will always be able to go a bit further.
My concern is just how right wing Labour are willing to go. The new austerity of SKSs "fiscal rules" will mean another lost generation, another decade or more of the sick man of Europe, and more pandering to bigotry as a sop for declining standards of living. If SKS continues in his current path, I could see the next Labour government being to the right of the Coalition government. If that becomes the "new centre" then the Tories will be allowed to move further rightwards, and the papers and news media will launder that as acceptable as well. There will come a point where Labour lose popularity, and because of FPTP most people will only ever consider the Tories as the second party of government. So I'm not so optimistic that a rightward drift will consign the Tories to unelectablility...
If Starmer moves further to the right, the Lib Dem will fill the gap on the left (ie the centre) with pragmatic non ideological policies and treat the electorate as adults.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I hope you're right. It will doom the Tories for a generation. Under PFTP, an ultra right wing Tory party minus sensible centrist Tories stands no chance of being in government.
Depends on the economy. People thought Thatcher was unelectable against Wilson and Callaghan initially until the strikes and high inflation of the late 1970s saw her win in 1979
Thatcher had a wide appeal. She wasn't ultra right wing.
An ultra right wing Tory party, led by Braverman, would only appeal to the aggrieved working class who want to stop immigrants and all this modern stuff. They will lose sensible one-nation Tories. Tney are a fairly small minority, and under FPTP, will not achieve power.
A Steve Barclay led Tory party though? Barclay more likely to get to the final 2 amongst Tory MPs than Braverman and then beat Mordaunt or Tugendhat with members
I am sorry to be rude but you really have lost the plot since you fell in love with the Lying Clown. If you think Barclay is the answer to Conservative Party woes you are completely myopic.
Depends what Milfy Mordaunt is wearing though. Pop a big weapon in her hands and the gig's as good as won.
Scene from the 2024 tory leadership debate.
Venue: Billingham Forum. Free entry if your blood pressure is over 140/90.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I'm pretty confident of two things. First is that the Conservatives will respond to defeat by moving further to the right. Second is that it won't go well for them. Partly because votes gained on the right will be netted out by votes lost on the left. But also becuase, however right wing the Conservatives go, the proper populists will always be able to go a bit further.
My concern is just how right wing Labour are willing to go. The new austerity of SKSs "fiscal rules" will mean another lost generation, another decade or more of the sick man of Europe, and more pandering to bigotry as a sop for declining standards of living. If SKS continues in his current path, I could see the next Labour government being to the right of the Coalition government. If that becomes the "new centre" then the Tories will be allowed to move further rightwards, and the papers and news media will launder that as acceptable as well. There will come a point where Labour lose popularity, and because of FPTP most people will only ever consider the Tories as the second party of government. So I'm not so optimistic that a rightward drift will consign the Tories to unelectablility...
If Starmer moves further to the right, the Lib Dem will fill the gap on the left (ie the centre) with pragmatic non ideological policies and treat the electorate as adults.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I hope you're right. It will doom the Tories for a generation. Under PFTP, an ultra right wing Tory party minus sensible centrist Tories stands no chance of being in government.
Depends on the economy. People thought Thatcher was unelectable against Wilson and Callaghan initially until the strikes and high inflation of the late 1970s saw her win in 1979
Thatcher had a wide appeal. She wasn't ultra right wing.
An ultra right wing Tory party, led by Braverman, would only appeal to the aggrieved working class who want to stop immigrants and all this modern stuff. They will lose sensible one-nation Tories. Tney are a fairly small minority, and under FPTP, will not achieve power.
A Steve Barclay led Tory party though? Barclay more likely to get to the final 2 amongst Tory MPs than Braverman and then beat Mordaunt or TugendhBat with members
Yes, he could come through the middle - his bluff style may not inspire enthusiasm but he has all the middling qualities: sensible, measured, reliable, … lalala, in short, sound.
Barclay is like Rorschach from Watchmen. You can look into his face and see anything you want.
I see doomed, middle aged photocopier sales rep but others can see potential Prime Minister.
If he is anything like Rorschach from Watchmen then we would be in for a wild ride, with him leading a major political party…
Hustings should be fun.
...Moore stated that Rorschach was created as a way of exploring what an archetypical Batman-type character—a driven, vengeance-fueled vigilante—would be like in the real world. He concluded that the short answer was "a nutcase". Moore also stated that the tone of Rorschach's diary was inspired by the Son of Sam letters David Berkowitz sent to the newspapers, and that his speech patterns were based on Herbie the Fat Fury...
He’s saying (and doing) some quite smart things, William.
I imagine if it was a) Meghan Markle; or b) Emma Thompson doing the same thing there would be a different reaction.
Proving what I'm not sure but there would be.
It's not complicated. How people react to what public figures say is based on their assessment of their performance in life so far. A Boris plan to end corruption in public life, or a Jezza plan to create a trillion pound Apple type company would meet with some scepticism.
No-one thinks William and co can literally end homelessness, but people may think he actually cares about the matter and intends a long term effort to make a difference.
ARE YOU SAYING EMMA THOMPSON IS NOT COMMITTED TO SAVING THE WORLD AND ENDING HOMELESSNESS?
Comments
Which went bankrupt leaving many suppliers and HMRC out of pocket ?
Johnson is the problem, not the solution. That you can't see this but millions of your former voters can is profoundly funny.
That's quick.
Altogether, if a referendum on re-joining the European Union were to take place tomorrow, 61% (–) say they would vote for the UK to join the EU, while 39% (–) say they would vote for the UK to stay out of the EU.
We already know that they will blame the last lot for several years (Tories still do it about Labour after 13 years), but again that doesn't tell us anything important.
BTW the HoL proposal from Labour is not very brilliant, even though reform is needed.
I can now confidently talk about new developments in car manufacturing to people who know nothing about car manufacturing.
It doesn't take all that long to become a respected brand if the quality is there.
An annual thread on Brexit
TLDR: Brexit is similar to US Prohibition (which lasted 13 years). Brexit won’t end soon but won’t last forever, so take a 10+ year view.
Tweeting on it once a year gives me time to think. This is #slowtwitter 1/19
https://twitter.com/aidan_courtney/status/1606365094790672384
As opposed to British cars which had bad engines and bad bodies.
They are building completely new factories and completely new platforms on precisely the same basis.
The number and scale if new production facilities being built in both Europe and the US is astonishing.
Not so much here.
No charge.
Easy talking points for people who need string opinions, regardless of facts. Meanwhile Tesla get on with a genuine revolution in how to design and build cars. Whilst their valuation at multiples of the next biggest car manufacturer is probably overblown, the existential threat to VAG, GM, Mercedes etc is real and growing.
Tesla's Model 3/Y is the 21st century equivalent of the Model T Ford. The car which revolutionised the industry. And however bonkers Musk is, its the blank sheet of paper innovations which drive his businesses. Why do I have to package a car like that? Why do I have to use 150 parts when I can use 5? Why can't we use stainless steel for rockets? Why is the idea of launching a swarm of mini satellites impossibly expensive?
The fact that people like HYUFD here has, over the last few weeks, essentially said if you're not a god fearing Christian who believes marriage is only between a man and a woman and have the same social and economic attitudes of a Victorian aristocrat you're not a "true Conservative" shows you how mad they've gone. Everyone is a secret lefty Marxist - even Johnson was too lefty for some with his willingness to say he wanted to increase spending on infrastructure; the horror!
All of the other tier one OEMs now have dedicated EV platforms (BMW: Neue Klasse, VAG: MEB, I can't remember what the Ford and GM ones are called but they exist).
The problem the legacy OEMs don't have is an association between their brand and a degenerate fucc boi.
Perhaps their next platform will try and catch-up. But how far behind will they be, and how much cash will they be spending on changing the entire way they build cars? And thus how successful will they be hawking what is standard kit elsewhere as extras and a pointless service plan?
Forty percent united around a "Brexit is in peril- only we will defend it" campaign is a voter slice to fear/covet. Hence the silence. Thirty percent, rather less so. But unless Brexit shocks us all by actually making people's lives better, the polling trend seems likely to continue.
I'd argue that it's constant lying that drives his business. He promises so much stuff, way head of time, that does not materialise. He hypes, and the share price goes up. When he does not deliver, the share price starts trickling down. Then he does more hype and he share price shoots up again. Remember the hundreds of thousands of robotaxis that were going to be on the road in 2020, where the owners would earn more from having them as taxis than the car cost? He's hyping them again now, when his 'autopilot' isn't even the best such system on the market.
So much of Tesla's share price is supported by hype: hype over undeliverable 'autopilot'; hype over robotics; hype over ai. They have down well in delivering basic cars; these 'extensions' to their businesses are worryingly cr@p.
I know this will upset some of the Musk fanbois and the Tesla zealots, but it's not 'Musk-time' - it's lies.
I am sure most Tory haters on here hope that this is the final implosion of the Conservative Party. I think they will be disappointed. If SKS turns out to be a Great Disappointment as PM then a Conservative Party under someone more charismatic such as Kemi or Penny Mordaunt could easily reinvent and be back in power, and SKS will be a one-term wonder.
Cue howls of outrage from those who so don't want this to be so, but know it is a real possibility.
Here is a Chinese SUV crossover thingy, on sale in my part of the world for £10k.
https://dubai.dubizzle.com/motors/used-cars/baic/x35/2023/5/1/brand-new-baic-x35-model-2023-gcc-price-in-2-933---da58b479335f41ecb2c2fe34d2069aac/
It would be closer to £15k in the UK, because of taxes and dealer markups, but this is what we are now dealing with from China.
I assume that there will be a reason found for it to be non-compliant with European safety regulations, to prevent them being sold in the West, but there’s one hell of a trade war coming over Chinese cars.
I have some genuine concerns about the way forward with autonomous vehicles anyway - I am more interested in making great cars that people can drive than one where it drives itself and becomes self-aware, setting off on a "kill all the humans" rampage.
So yes, hype / fantasies / lies drives the share price. You know what else drives the share price? Tesla's profits per vehicle compared to the legacy manufacturers. The blank sheet of paper approach means cars using gigacastings instead of individual parts make a lot more money. And as the best-selling car in the world is also mega-profitable, *that* is the real threat.
https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/1673212640913420290?s=20
The Tories are increasingly authoritarian. Labour have always treated electors as children. Only the Lib Dems treat electors as adults, and will appeal to the many people who want to be respected as individuals who can think for themselves.
And it's not just autpilot; it's the AI and robotics stuff. Although not Tesla, the Hyperloop stuff (allegedly only done to try to stop US high-speed rail). The Boring Company. Starship and SuperHeavy. Of those, only SS/SH stands a chance of coming anywhere near his promises - and that includes Autopilot. I'm becoming increasingly bearish about SS/SH as well...
Musk lies. And he's becoming increasingly involved in politics as well. I don't see him - or his companies - in any positive light. Even SpaceX is becoming tarnished.
Sorry Tesla haters, you are talking out of your late-adopter arses.
A lot (not all, but a lot) of the resistance to immigration is about a nation scrabbling over scarce resources, of which housing is one and prosperity is another. Fix those, and we don't have the same dynamic of "keep them out to leave more for me", which doesn't really work anyway.
Besides, it's probably another decade before the UK can convincingly say "Brexit was all down to that scruffy bloke who was PM for a while. Sorry about that, but he's gone now. How about a chat?" So the UK might as well do something useful in the meantime.
Still. Ten grand. Luvvly jubbly.
I had a state of the Chinese art Lynk & Co hybrid SUV as one of my hire cars in Germany recently. It generated negative downforce at over 180km/h (you could tell from how the rear dampers just stopped working). At 229km/h I was convinced the rear wheels were actually off the ground. If I didn't have thousands of hours of high speed driving in a 2CV under my belt I'd be dead.
My second hire car was a Peugeot 508GT which confounded expectations by being really good. If I were in the market for a 'car' car I'd be tempted.
The latest news from the US is that all the other car makers have given up trying to push the non-Tesla standard plug for charging and are queuing up to join the Tesla network.
Why? Well, legacy had regulatory backing, they had Congress, Senate, Whitehouse, the unions… what they didn’t have enough of was actual fucking charging stations. They were going to spend “billions” on that Real Soon Now.
Same horseshit that the legacy automakers have been pushing on ZEVs for decades. “We will change over when the time is right. And when ZEVs are ready. And when our bums don’t look big in an ZEV. And the stars are right. Oh, and someone else needs to pay for the charging/hydrogen delivery.”
https://www.sportsmanor.com/the-fight-has-been-cancelled-elon-musks-mother-pulls-the-plug-on-dana-whites-ufc-plan-for-her-son-and-mark-zuckerberg/
An ultra right wing Tory party, led by Braverman, would only appeal to the aggrieved working class who want to stop immigrants and all this modern stuff. They will lose sensible one-nation Tories. Tney are a fairly small minority, and under FPTP, will not achieve power.
Nope. But I am very sceptical about some of the stuff they do, and the way Musk manipulates the share price. I don't see those as positives.
"late-adopter arses"
I think you mean: the plebs who cannot afford one. You know, the vast majority of people.
"one of the most amazing innovations ever"
You're writing this on the Internet, and you think an electric car is one of the 'most amazing innovations ever' ?
And the Model T comparison is valid - not just from the innovation POV. While more successful than Musk (broadly speaking). Henry Ford also had some quite troubling niche views, which like Musk he sought to foist upon the world. Both are unusual people whose flaws and virtues have been massively magnified by their success.
Cars are often the second-most expensive purchase anyone will buy, after a house. Therefore the choice of car reflects on the owner. When I had a Land Rover 110, it suited my character (big, noisy, and often broke down). Mrs J's first car purchase was a Hyundai i20 (small, nimble and nice to drive).
Sadly, Tesla drivers are becoming synonymous with over-entitled w@nkers - think BMW and Audi drivers combined with Cockney Barrow-boys.
So only the Greens are able to outflank Starmer Labour from the left now UK wide, the LDs voters are right of even Starmer Labour now
Another thing I’ve noticed - that a lot of Tesla owners don’t have their phones stuck to the windscreen to do the navigation - the onboard system is actually usable and useful…
If course, if they get hit by the build quality issues (especially true of the older models) that goes away.
EV prices are coming down, quite rapidly. Look at some of the Chinese offerings to see what is coming. Just because legacy auto is trying to get the customers to pay for the changeover + a big profit, doesn’t mean that everyone will. In the Chinese case, they are investing in market share, Amazon style.
Ultimately the price of EVs is driven by battery prices. And they have a long way to fall, just with existing tech.
https://twitter.com/sensiblehuman96/status/1673229447728693249?s=20
GT3 RS lateral G: 2.0
So, no.
He’s saying (and doing) some quite smart things, William.
ETA: But yes, if he's committed to it and can contribute to making it happen then good for him.
2) Yawn. Chippy inverted snobbery don't impress me much. There are loads of things that the vast majority of people sadly can't afford, but it doesn't stop us admiring them or valuing them. Besides, Tesla will soon launch a car which will be pretty competitive - a family hatchback, roughly same cost as a Ford Focus.
3)Please note "one of". And yes. If anyone had said even 10 years ago that there would, in ten years time, be an electric car that can go for over 300 miles on a single charge, do 0-60 in three seconds and have a semi-autonomous driving mode that can decide on lane changing and still have one of the highest safety records on the roads AND will be made by a company that has only just recently come into existence AND has one of the highest performing sales of one of its models in Europe against all the pre-exiting car manufacturers.
But you @JosiasJessop, are not impressed. Lol.
PS it is also the only car I know of that has a "fart" mode. Now that is impressive.
Proving what I'm not sure but there would be.
The new platform - SSP, which unlike the current two platforms will provide for every vehicle in the range - is due in three years' time, presumably to coincide with the new factories coming on stream.
Point is no one yet has anywhere near sufficient capacity to provide, even in recession, for the global car market. It's all still up for grabs, and what rolls out from the factories now building (both battery and vehicle) will decide who survives.
Yes, I can see it.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Keir_Starmer?content=trackers
And if the last nutter standing (Braverman presumably) can gather support of 1/3 of Conservative MPs, they get onto the final ballot and then they win with the membership.
Why won't that happen?
I see doomed, middle aged photocopier sales rep but others can see potential Prime Minister.
As for taking discreet holidays, you think having all the siloviks saying stuff while Prigozhin was on the move would have been a sign of strength?
This "code" crap. You're still covered by a thieves' code if you blow your mates' gate up and threaten to bulldoze his house down? Must be quite some code. What a shame for Bugsy Siegel that Meyer Lansky didn't keep to a "code".
The rumours about Shoigu were spread by pro-government guys and it's likely that the target market was Wagner, in particular hardliners who were open to the idea that Prigozhin was selling them down the river.
It's possible Shoigu will be retired within a week or so, but at the moment I think it's highly unlikely.
No-one thinks William and co can literally end homelessness, but people may think he actually cares about the matter and intends a long term effort to make a difference.
Steal from the mob (too much) and they kill you.
...Moore stated that Rorschach was created as a way of exploring what an archetypical Batman-type character—a driven, vengeance-fueled vigilante—would be like in the real world. He concluded that the short answer was "a nutcase". Moore also stated that the tone of Rorschach's diary was inspired by the Son of Sam letters David Berkowitz sent to the newspapers, and that his speech patterns were based on Herbie the Fat Fury...
Venue: Billingham Forum. Free entry if your blood pressure is over 140/90.
Stridsfordon 9040C IFV, delivered from 🇸🇪#Sweden, reportedly near #Bakhmut, #Donetsk oblast.
Sweden has delivered at least 50 of these IFVs to Ukraine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combat_Vehicle_90#Variants