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How BoJo can still go on hurting the Tories – politicalbetting.com
How BoJo can still go on hurting the Tories – politicalbetting.com
Channel 4 is broadcasting the above documentary tomorrow and my guess is this has the potential to cause embarrassment for the Tories even though the leader and PM at the time, Johnson has moved on and is no longer an MP
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Might this be followed by "Joe Biden as (Woke) Alien Invader?" Or maybe "Joe Biden as (Trans) Demon Lover"?
Please get it right.
The hoped for rage in his new column in the Mail turned out to be mid range Jeremy Clarkson.
The only thing left is to see if he manages to cross over with the leader of Alba in Scottish polling.
Which is a combination of “expected” and “another one?”
I really hope one of them is called Leonidas.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LE2xXQwbWQ
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/25/britain-crises-hopelessness-market-towns-suburbs
He has done an awful lot of reporting from outside of Westminster over the decades, from almost everywhere. And he reports that exhaustion and political hopelessness has seeped into the shires and market towns in a way it hadn't done before.
Fundamentally there is no way back for this government, and as their own sense of hopelessness sets in, watch for the schism that has wrecked the parliamentary Tory party have one final attempt to make a terrible situation worse.
Having tried and failed to exorcise voters with "yebbut Starmer doesn't know what a woman is", the only defence is "he will do all the things we're doing but refuse to admit like an open door immigration policy" and "he's a bit crap and doesn't have all the answers".
Which points to a big crash in turnout, which will hit Tories more than any other party, a Labour majority but in sane rather than silly territory, and hopefully a cross-party realisation that absolutism is the mess we are in and consensus facing into the Big Issues needs to happen.
In reality many will not. But the realisation that they are not only sailing that close to disaster but also utterly powerless will be saluatory. Especially when they see the party they kept voting for not only doing nothing, but blaming THEM for the mess they are in. With a sneer.
Oh, for a Paxman interview with him on this.
This story is not new, and while it may excite some political obsessives, it is what is happening to their own budgets with the continuing cost of living crisis plus this mortgage crisis that will really upset those on the Clapham Bus
The conservatives will pay the price but the hard decisions Sunak and Hunt are taking will be passed over to Starmer who will face exactly the same insoluble problems which are likely to be ever present in his first administration
It seems that at least labour get it, but the lib dems have lost all economic sense with their idiotic £300 per month gift to mortgage holders confirming just how economically illiterate they are
They are simply protest notes proffered at blue wall Tories to stoke their anger. Like a Daily Mail front page about curries. Only less fascist.
The other big one is the commercial property sector - especially the scale of owning chunks of high streets. Under “proper management”, this is leveraged until the pips squeak. If you think housing costs are nuts, meet some shop keepers who will tell you about their rent increases.
I agree with every word.
A few comments, which I shared with a few friends yesterday.
Needed explanations: "Vory", the thieves,- the current regime, VVP- Vladimir Vladimirovitch Putin, EVP,- Evgeny Viktorovitch Prigrozhin.
This was a sort of fake coup. The column may not have left Rostov but somebody shot down the helos and the SIGINT plane.
1) a lot less to Wagner than conventional wisdom has believed. Prigrozhin is a sock puppet. This was not Putin v Prigrozhin, this was one part of the inner circle of the Vory attacking another using Prigrozhin as a proxy. Putin was forced to make a choice, but his delay nearly created a terminal crisis, and the inner circle of the Vory will take note. PM Mistushin is in trouble and obviously those who took discreet holidays in the last 48 hours. The meeting of the security council this week will include a major reshuffle of the government. What is wrong with VVP? He seems totally listless. I think the mooted meeting of the Security Council this week might even see an open challenge, and it is not certain that he can hang on. Could it be that he really is ill?
Clearly the Vory are close to breaking themselves. Navalny might be on the plane to Moscow within a week at this rate.
2) The real is that Shoigu and Gerasimov are now out. The “uprising” was over the moment that deal was done.
Cui Bono? Surovikin and the FSB. Who loses? Draw your own conclusions, but a negative round for VVP.
Reveals that the fake Union Presidency does have a purpose in the real world- reversion to a higher authority when the Vory are deadlocked. However Luko did not do the deal, The inner circle, possibly led by Patrushev, did.
Some respect from the Vory, for bravery of EVP which is why, so far, they let him live, even though Prigrozhin was not inside the inner circle of the Vory, the code still covers him, and the inner circle realized that he (EVP) had dealt with too much in Bakhmut, had cracked and it was time to get him out.
3) Ukraine needs more help to win this war, and Enerhodar is in terrible danger. Beijing may have lost Mistushin (it remains to be seen if he can stay in place, I´m guessing no), but Luko has really come good for them. I think China may be calling at least some of the shots here, which is a bit reassuring, since they have already spoken openly against any Russian nuclear options.
The risks are indeed terrifying. As I understand it, the threat of NATO full on retaliation for any nuclear move includes radiological attacks (i.e. Enerhodar) as well as any use of n-weapons, but I think it would be well to convey this by any means possible. They question now is… to whom? Minister of Defence under house arrest, Chief of Defence Staff missing in action, President´s whereabouts unknown. Meanwhile 6 nuclear reactors are under the control of drunken morons who enjoy playing with matches.
I certainly am praying.
The whole thing stinks, the ennoblement, the Italian bunga bunga parties, the donations, the Conservative friends of Russia. Absolutely all of it, it stinks to high heaven. And it always did.
Yet our media chose to look away until it was convenient not to.
What did MI6 know?
“All the politicians said….”
This is why oppositions need to oppose.
This stuff, like promoting NIMBYism, makes you a part of the problem.
I think the spark for it is this - Ukraine is making steady, but slow progress, breaking through the Russian defence lines.
These lines are more about minefields than anything. These are there to slow down and canalise any attacks. The defenders are there, as much to protect the minefields as they are to shoot at the attackers. An undefended minefield is not much of an obstacle.
The Ukrainians have a number of modern, Western, minefield breaching vehicles. These work slowly and only create lanes through the minefields. This makes the progress slow and very dangerous.
However, the advance is continuing.
It will be evident to those in Moscow, that it is a matter of time before the Ukrainians reach the last serious defence lines. More are being prepared, but there is a shortage of everything.
And completely agree with Energodar. Russia has to be told very loudly that any accidents there will result in consequences.
This creates a gulf in the market which all of the new Chinese brands will happily step into. MG have already shown the way (and remember that MG is owned by the Chinese government via SIAC), others like BYD are coming.
I've recorded a video for Tesla's 20th birthday next Saturday, speculating about how the car market will look on their 40th birthday. And my conclusion is that many of the brands we know today will have disappeared, out-maneuvered by Chinese companies who make the cars people want and can afford. The remaining premium brands will have consolidated and retreated into one big blog making only the top end. A Swatch group for cars if you like.
https://twitter.com/DylanBurns1776/status/1673130698826293250
Any large 6 cylinder diesel that's not in an SUV is now going for crack money. That market is dead.
In the new market there is a lot of shitbox inventory and subsequent carnage for new prices. If you want a Corsa (and have been duly lobotomised to enable that decision) then now is the time bargain hard for one.
On the whole, the car market isn't in secular decline but there are very ominous signs. My advice is don't lease a McLaren Artura.
The inflation of rents is hardly somerthing the average small business can have forese3en, for instance, or the buggeration of their EU trade thanks to Brexit.
It is not just Boris that has had questionable relationships with and in Russia.
It is matter of public record that Dominic Cummings lived there for several years and that Somerset Capital Management (Prop. J. Rees Mogg) previously had important investments with and in Russian companies.
It is also a matter of public record that at least £4 million was donated to the Conservative Party by dual Russian/British citizens.
No suggestion of illegal activity in any case, but I believe that there are questions to answer.
The price of decades cultivating civil apathy.
As some of the Turkey expert community has pointed out, the reaction when a faction of the TSK sought to oust Erdogan on 2016 was vastly different. People blocked tanks with their bodies. Who was willing to die for Putin?
https://twitter.com/DrJMankoff/status/1673123274597838848
Considering how hard you ramped the Daily Heil's Currygate thing, you can't really object to my lot doing its own piece of propagandising. Or was the Heil's attempt - cheered on by you - to keep the Tories in office not "playing politics with people's lives?"
They need to go. Voters aren't stupid, they know the LibDems will be nowhere near office after the election. The Tories could be, yet their own economically illiterate policies apparently are ok for people to support because Starmer doesn't know what a woman is etc.
I do think the groups with a plethora of brands (VAG, Stellantis) will have to rationalise in the same way that the US OEMs had to by shedding brands. Although VAG's strategy at the moment appears to be to create new brands (Rimac, Cupra).
I'd like *all* parties to be much clearer and cleaner when it comes to funding. Sadly, this is probably impossible without public funding of political parties, and all the mess that creates.
(Incidentally, when it comes to dodgy peerages, how on earth was Mandelson allowed to enter the HoL? Someone who was forced to resign twice for dodgy dealings.
The problem is that having been all in on the siren songs, any notes of it drifting through the air still catch their attention. Which is why Starmer very sensibly gives it a wide berth for now.
Brexit is done. We aren't going to rejoin any time soon, and as people have been so gaslit as to believe the EEA is the EU or the CU is the EU, saying we would look to even align with either of them is a risk as well.
We are where we are. What we can focus on instead is fixing the economy and finding ways to bring hope and pride and investment back to people's communities. Which will mean at least complete alignment with the EEA and CU. But focus on the future, not the past.
Wagner Head Prigozhin’s Past Life as a Children’s Author and Illustrator
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/01/wagner-head-prigozhins-past-life-as-a-childrens-author-and-illustrator-a81358
I mean, Prigozhin may be a loathsome Tristram Hunt but to compare his cooking to Macdonald's 'food' is going way, waaaaaay too far.
If Mercedes etc continue to push this huge increase in prices for electric, and western governments continue the rapid electrification targets, it won't matter whether people would prefer a Merc, they won't be able to buy one.
(Having said that, there is still a chance that Brexit works out in the medium and long term. I wouldn't bet on it, though.)
'HM Revenue and Customs handed out fines to 184,000 people paid less than £12,500 a year – the level under which people were then not subject to income tax – in the 2020-21 financial year (the latest for which full figures are available) for failing to complete a self-assessment tax form on time.
Many of these people, already in severe financial difficulties, misunderstood the initial fine and were then subjected to further fines and interest. Some people were left facing fines of thousands of pounds, which would take them many years to pay.'
I suppose they have to make up for all those IHT allowances to well-off Tory voters. But really? Almost 20K people?
With DA as his chauffeur...
So if the Tories try and reject Johnson further they will just see further leakage to Farage and Tice's party
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2023/06/24/voting-intention-con-22-lab-47-20-21-jun-2023
But the writing is terrible, and the acting is worse (I guess Americans don't know who Matthew Macfadyen is, so his appalling accent is perhaps not so grating). There is absolutely no depth to any of the characters and I've got better things to do with my life.
The Faragist right wing have always been more willing to argue for spending money "for real British people" because a) they don't worry about getting into power and b) it allows them to argue that resources are currently misspent on the "other". Whilst "getting Brexit done" was important for those who voted Johnson I think his willingness to turn on the funding tap (or at least pay lip service to the idea) had more to do with his popularity - especially in the Red Wall. Sunak doing an Osbourne replay (and SKS joining in) leaves lots of those voters with feelings that neither of the big two support and the only alternative presented by the media, as always, is the populist right party.
Sadly, the government response was to pass a law, very rapidly, to make government legally immune to such remedies.
Another good thing that John Major did, by the way, was to crack down on late paying by government. I recall howls about the idea that government depts. having to settle their bills within 6 months…
I've only got to the end of season 2 so far. Still hoping that he pulls a Gaius Baltar and reveals his true accent in a moment of weakness...
When I visited Hamburg a few weeks back, about a quarter of the taxis were Tesla Model 3.
In Germany, the taxis *were* always big old Mercedes, off the conveyer belt of last years models being sold off Mercedes employees, buying a new one super cheap from their employer.
To see a non German brand that deep into the market…
But HMRC practice hitherto in general has been to ignore fines where there is no tax owing, or it has been overpaid. Indeed, in my experience it has been very difficult to get them to send tax return forms if they think things are correct fromk their estimates, but I know it is not correct.
So this is quite a difference in practice, and very confusing indeed. .
I will grant you that a £50k car is a nicer place to be than a £20k car. But that's, what, £400 a month? I could do a lot with£400 a month that's more fun or memorable than sitting in a nice car.
And I like driving. But driving on an empty winding road through pleasant scenery with agreeable music playing is only about 5% more enjoyable in a new £50k car than in a ten year old car worth less than £5k.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
I traded out my lay of Labour for a tiny profit a few days back.
I'm in swing area and we've seen lots of Labour activity, but virtually nothing from Con (one postal 'survey' only). Was speaking to a Lab canvasser a few days ago - I promised my certain vote and got to chatting about prospects, they seemed genuinely to feel there was a good chance, could well be wrong, but I don't think they were just talking things up as they expressed surprise to be in with a shout. Veteran of a few campagins and said they didn't think they'd really have much chance when the by election was called.
I'm not calling this for Lab as I still think it's a big ask. I've not backed Lab (and I don't think they're great value at odds this morning) but I have sold out of my anti-Lab position. My opinion has been changed as the Conservatives seem in disarray with few boots on the ground (not just in my area, also talking to those in others) and because the LDs, who could have bene potential spoilers splitting the anti-Tory vote, have ben completely invisible. There are still plenty of Tories here and the Tories could well win the seat, but apathy among Con voters and a fired up anti-Tory vote could swing it. I no longer have any confidence in calling it either way.
The other major issue is this: legacy car makers are cynical about EVs. They build EVs converted from their existing products (e.g. EQA from GLA), built in the same manner with a gazillion parts arranged in the way their factories are set up to build. So you get an overly-complex but poorly packaged EV which they then charge a large premium for. So many of the new Chinese brands are ground up EVs, built with far fewer parts (copying the Tesla revolution) and thus cheaper and more profitable whilst being better packaged.
The old marques are in trouble.
We need truth and reconciliation first, other wise the fukwits that led us here will still have a voice in the debate.
There is another article in The Times today by another Brexit devotee explaining why it's not his fault the magic beans he sold us have failed to produce the promised beanstalk.
As I've remarked before, I think, it won't be long before the UK car industry is concentrated near Malvern in Worcestershire.
The Russian rumours that he'd fallen were probably to placate hardliners in Wagner.
That guy is tough. Must be the Aztec sacrificial daggers and samurai swords. (Paging @Leon - do you think he's got non-homo sapiens DNA? Por-Bazhyn was an alien base, obv.)
*) Count the letters.
He is an IT guy, but knows his electronics. He found the ICE trained engineers incredibly dismissive and not interested in electric power train engineering - “Battery and a motor, how hard can that be?”
It takes guts to not have an opinion.
More posts like this, please, pbers.
His New Democracy party (ND) won 40.5% of the national vote, almost 23 points ahead of Alexis Tsipras's Syriza party.
He beat Syriza in May, but called new elections in a bid to win a majority.
"ND is today the most powerful centre-right party in Europe," he told delighted supporters in Athens.'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65997486
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
Now it isn't just that their motor and drivetrain package is leading edge, the way it is packaged and assembled is genuinely industry-changing. Everyone else was building mechanical cars the old way - lots of parts packaged to suit the way the engine needs to be stacked. Tesla's small packaging and now the gigacasting process means they can build a highly efficient (in both energy and space usage) powertrain and use minimal parts. Which means big profits. With new chinese manufacturers copying.