That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I'm pretty confident of two things. First is that the Conservatives will respond to defeat by moving further to the right. Second is that it won't go well for them. Partly because votes gained on the right will be netted out by votes lost on the left. But also becuase, however right wing the Conservatives go, the proper populists will always be able to go a bit further.
My concern is just how right wing Labour are willing to go. The new austerity of SKSs "fiscal rules" will mean another lost generation, another decade or more of the sick man of Europe, and more pandering to bigotry as a sop for declining standards of living. If SKS continues in his current path, I could see the next Labour government being to the right of the Coalition government. If that becomes the "new centre" then the Tories will be allowed to move further rightwards, and the papers and news media will launder that as acceptable as well. There will come a point where Labour lose popularity, and because of FPTP most people will only ever consider the Tories as the second party of government. So I'm not so optimistic that a rightward drift will consign the Tories to unelectablility...
If Starmer moves further to the right, the Lib Dem will fill the gap on the left (ie the centre) with pragmatic non ideological policies and treat the electorate as adults.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I hope you're right. It will doom the Tories for a generation. Under PFTP, an ultra right wing Tory party minus sensible centrist Tories stands no chance of being in government.
Depends on the economy. People thought Thatcher was unelectable against Wilson and Callaghan initially until the strikes and high inflation of the late 1970s saw her win in 1979
Thatcher had a wide appeal. She wasn't ultra right wing.
An ultra right wing Tory party, led by Braverman, would only appeal to the aggrieved working class who want to stop immigrants and all this modern stuff. They will lose sensible one-nation Tories. Tney are a fairly small minority, and under FPTP, will not achieve power.
A Steve Barclay led Tory party though? Barclay more likely to get to the final 2 amongst Tory MPs than Braverman and then beat Mordaunt or Tugendhat with members
The catch is that you need 1/3 of Conservative MPs to get through to the members ballot. It's easy to see one sensible Conservative doing that, harder to see two sensibles both managing it.
And if the last nutter standing (Braverman presumably) can gather support of 1/3 of Conservative MPs, they get onto the final ballot and then they win with the membership.
Why won't that happen?
Looking at current polling, who is the most experienced, safe seat Tory MP? I saw one model over the weekend that put the Cons behind the LDs, so in that scenario I imagine not many, but in the more realistic cases?
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I'm pretty confident of two things. First is that the Conservatives will respond to defeat by moving further to the right. Second is that it won't go well for them. Partly because votes gained on the right will be netted out by votes lost on the left. But also becuase, however right wing the Conservatives go, the proper populists will always be able to go a bit further.
My concern is just how right wing Labour are willing to go. The new austerity of SKSs "fiscal rules" will mean another lost generation, another decade or more of the sick man of Europe, and more pandering to bigotry as a sop for declining standards of living. If SKS continues in his current path, I could see the next Labour government being to the right of the Coalition government. If that becomes the "new centre" then the Tories will be allowed to move further rightwards, and the papers and news media will launder that as acceptable as well. There will come a point where Labour lose popularity, and because of FPTP most people will only ever consider the Tories as the second party of government. So I'm not so optimistic that a rightward drift will consign the Tories to unelectablility...
If Starmer moves further to the right, the Lib Dem will fill the gap on the left (ie the centre) with pragmatic non ideological policies and treat the electorate as adults.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I hope you're right. It will doom the Tories for a generation. Under PFTP, an ultra right wing Tory party minus sensible centrist Tories stands no chance of being in government.
Depends on the economy. People thought Thatcher was unelectable against Wilson and Callaghan initially until the strikes and high inflation of the late 1970s saw her win in 1979
Thatcher had a wide appeal. She wasn't ultra right wing.
An ultra right wing Tory party, led by Braverman, would only appeal to the aggrieved working class who want to stop immigrants and all this modern stuff. They will lose sensible one-nation Tories. Tney are a fairly small minority, and under FPTP, will not achieve power.
A Steve Barclay led Tory party though? Barclay more likely to get to the final 2 amongst Tory MPs than Braverman and then beat Mordaunt or Tugendhat with members
I got on him a while back due to your punditry. Now much shorter and have closed out my stake to leave a win v flat. Smug city situation, so thanks. Feel privileged to have an inside man in the deep dark guts of the Tory Party. I could not risk going in there myself.
Sub Brief 20260626 OceanGate Titan Submersible Conclusion The wreckage of the Titan submersible has been located by a French ROV, the Victor-6000. At least one of the two titanium endcaps have been found and identified by the U.S. Coast Guard's Unified Team. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PaPbAxVBVaQ
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
Something something, acronym acronym, Tesla. I'm not pathetic. It's really shiny. Vrooom! It's shinier than yours. I like talking with other men who like a nice shiny car, acronym acronym. No idea where I'm going, but my God I spent a lot on the ticket to get there, acronym acronym. And I sit in such a comfortable seat, and I can control the watts per cubic millimetre of my fart expulsion tech. Elon Musk, not as cool as he thinks. Not as cool as me. Imagine if I were him. I'd do things even better than he does. I don't project. Don't talk about vicarious. What do you mean, "surface" and "infantile" and "boring as f*ck"? Vrooooom! Acronym!
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I'm pretty confident of two things. First is that the Conservatives will respond to defeat by moving further to the right. Second is that it won't go well for them. Partly because votes gained on the right will be netted out by votes lost on the left. But also becuase, however right wing the Conservatives go, the proper populists will always be able to go a bit further.
My concern is just how right wing Labour are willing to go. The new austerity of SKSs "fiscal rules" will mean another lost generation, another decade or more of the sick man of Europe, and more pandering to bigotry as a sop for declining standards of living. If SKS continues in his current path, I could see the next Labour government being to the right of the Coalition government. If that becomes the "new centre" then the Tories will be allowed to move further rightwards, and the papers and news media will launder that as acceptable as well. There will come a point where Labour lose popularity, and because of FPTP most people will only ever consider the Tories as the second party of government. So I'm not so optimistic that a rightward drift will consign the Tories to unelectablility...
If Starmer moves further to the right, the Lib Dem will fill the gap on the left (ie the centre) with pragmatic non ideological policies and treat the electorate as adults.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I hope you're right. It will doom the Tories for a generation. Under PFTP, an ultra right wing Tory party minus sensible centrist Tories stands no chance of being in government.
Depends on the economy. People thought Thatcher was unelectable against Wilson and Callaghan initially until the strikes and high inflation of the late 1970s saw her win in 1979
Thatcher had a wide appeal. She wasn't ultra right wing.
An ultra right wing Tory party, led by Braverman, would only appeal to the aggrieved working class who want to stop immigrants and all this modern stuff. They will lose sensible one-nation Tories. Tney are a fairly small minority, and under FPTP, will not achieve power.
A Steve Barclay led Tory party though? Barclay more likely to get to the final 2 amongst Tory MPs than Braverman and then beat Mordaunt or Tugendhat with members
I am sorry to be rude but you really have lost the plot since you fell in love with the Lying Clown. If you think Barclay is the answer to Conservative Party woes you are completely myopic.
Depends what Milfy Mordaunt is wearing though. Pop a big weapon in her hands and the gig's as good as won.
Scene from the 2024 tory leadership debate.
Venue: Billingham Forum. Free entry if your blood pressure is over 140/90.
Was thinking Ursula Creed, but acceot that even for here, that's a deep cut.
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
I suspect he may lose his seat. Wycombe is not safe Blue these days and has been trending Labourwards for a while. On the current national swing, it changes hands.
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
Doesn't Steve Baker's majority (4,000 or so) mean he's likely to be unavailable next time?
As for Steve Barclay, it is faintly absurd, and being Health Secretary ought to rule him out (c'mon: even if things go well, they're going to go badly in the NHS). But someone has to do it, and once you eliminate the impossible...
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
I suspect he may lose his seat. Wycombe is not safe Blue these days and has been trending Labourwards for a while. On the current national swing, it changes hands.
A thread header on how the Swingometer culls leadership and potential leadership in the Tory party would be of value.
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
Presumably, given that he would be a decent choice, is sensible, pragmatic etc... You've done the only sensible thing and bet against him as leader?
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
I suspect he may lose his seat. Wycombe is not safe Blue these days and has been trending Labourwards for a while. On the current national swing, it changes hands.
A thread header on how the Swingometer culls leadership and potential leadership in the Tory party would be of value.
Rather obvious don'tcha think ? The fewer Tory Mps the fewer potential challengers....
It’s really boring on here this morning. No Russian trolls to wind up in their own logical ineptitude.
What if they were never Russian trolls but actually Chinese trolls stirring it up? Try to cause arguments and criticise the west but also make the Russians look stupid.
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
He’s a Cambridge educated lawyer, misunderestimate him at your own risk.
Suella Braverman is also a Cambridge educated lawyer.
The next Tory leadership election could herald a golden age for the Tory party and the country if Braverman and Barclay make it to the final two.
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
I suspect he may lose his seat. Wycombe is not safe Blue these days and has been trending Labourwards for a while. On the current national swing, it changes hands.
A thread header on how the Swingometer culls leadership and potential leadership in the Tory party would be of value.
Rather obvious don'tcha think ? The fewer Tory Mps the fewer potential challengers....
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
I suspect he may lose his seat. Wycombe is not safe Blue these days and has been trending Labourwards for a while. On the current national swing, it changes hands.
A thread header on how the Swingometer culls leadership and potential leadership in the Tory party would be of value.
Rather obvious don'tcha think ? The fewer Tory Mps the fewer potential challengers....
But who will be left standing at various levels of wipeout, will be informative for betting purposes.
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
Presumably, given that he would be a decent choice, is sensible, pragmatic etc... You've done the only sensible thing and bet against him as leader?
ha! sounds like the good burghers of Wycombe will see him away regardless of my cash handicapping him to start with.
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
I suspect he may lose his seat. Wycombe is not safe Blue these days and has been trending Labourwards for a while. On the current national swing, it changes hands.
A thread header on how the Swingometer culls leadership and potential leadership in the Tory party would be of value.
Rather obvious don'tcha think ? The fewer Tory Mps the fewer potential challengers....
But who will be left standing at various levels of wipeout, will be informative for betting purposes.
Yeah, like if this is the worst case scenario - who would be leader:
Putin finding distraction from domestic events by bombing cat sanctuaries in Syria.
A provisional balance: - 20 kittens died from the impact of the rockets. -10 kittens with bad epilepsy attack from the shock . - 8 cats with splinters in various parts of the body (including eyes). This balance can changed dramatically in the next hours . https://twitter.com/theAleppoCatmen/status/1672946998008315906
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
He’s a Cambridge educated lawyer, misunderestimate him at your own risk.
Suella Braverman is also a Cambridge educated lawyer.
The next Tory leadership election could herald a golden age for the Tory party and the country if Braverman and Barclay make it to the final two.
He's a Cambridge educated historian, who then trained as a lawyer.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I'm pretty confident of two things. First is that the Conservatives will respond to defeat by moving further to the right. Second is that it won't go well for them. Partly because votes gained on the right will be netted out by votes lost on the left. But also becuase, however right wing the Conservatives go, the proper populists will always be able to go a bit further.
My concern is just how right wing Labour are willing to go. The new austerity of SKSs "fiscal rules" will mean another lost generation, another decade or more of the sick man of Europe, and more pandering to bigotry as a sop for declining standards of living. If SKS continues in his current path, I could see the next Labour government being to the right of the Coalition government. If that becomes the "new centre" then the Tories will be allowed to move further rightwards, and the papers and news media will launder that as acceptable as well. There will come a point where Labour lose popularity, and because of FPTP most people will only ever consider the Tories as the second party of government. So I'm not so optimistic that a rightward drift will consign the Tories to unelectablility...
If Starmer moves further to the right, the Lib Dem will fill the gap on the left (ie the centre) with pragmatic non ideological policies and treat the electorate as adults.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I hope you're right. It will doom the Tories for a generation. Under PFTP, an ultra right wing Tory party minus sensible centrist Tories stands no chance of being in government.
Depends on the economy. People thought Thatcher was unelectable against Wilson and Callaghan initially until the strikes and high inflation of the late 1970s saw her win in 1979
Thatcher had a wide appeal. She wasn't ultra right wing.
An ultra right wing Tory party, led by Braverman, would only appeal to the aggrieved working class who want to stop immigrants and all this modern stuff. They will lose sensible one-nation Tories. Tney are a fairly small minority, and under FPTP, will not achieve power.
A Steve Barclay led Tory party though? Barclay more likely to get to the final 2 amongst Tory MPs than Braverman and then beat Mordaunt or Tugendhat with members
The catch is that you need 1/3 of Conservative MPs to get through to the members ballot. It's easy to see one sensible Conservative doing that, harder to see two sensibles both managing it.
And if the last nutter standing (Braverman presumably) can gather support of 1/3 of Conservative MPs, they get onto the final ballot and then they win with the membership.
Why won't that happen?
Braverman only got 27 Con MPs votes when eliminated last summer, she has no chance.
Of the final 3 last summer if Sunak resigns after election defeat, I suspect most of the remaining Sunak supporting MPs to back Barclay, most Truss supporters to go to Tugendhat in the end or Badenoch and Mordaunt to keep her MPs who did not lose their seats
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
He’s a Cambridge educated lawyer, misunderestimate him at your own risk.
Suella Braverman is also a Cambridge educated lawyer.
The next Tory leadership election could herald a golden age for the Tory party and the country if Braverman and Barclay make it to the final two.
Not that I want to trigger you or anything but was just reading up on Lord Rosebery.
Between 1880-1902 all PMs went to (Eton then) Christ Church, Oxford.
It’s really boring on here this morning. No Russian trolls to wind up in their own logical ineptitude.
What if they were never Russian trolls but actually Chinese trolls stirring it up? Try to cause arguments and criticise the west but also make the Russians look stupid.
An awful lot of Chinese students in the UK. We have a few doing self funded PhDs. Would not amaze if some were working on the side for the state...
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
He’s a Cambridge educated lawyer, misunderestimate him at your own risk.
Suella Braverman is also a Cambridge educated lawyer.
The next Tory leadership election could herald a golden age for the Tory party and the country if Braverman and Barclay make it to the final two.
He's a Cambridge educated historian, who then trained as a lawyer.
So Suella it is.
Portillo was also a Cambridge educated historian, Ken Clarke and Michael Howard Cambridge educated lawyers too.
Cambridge educated politicians tend to do law or history at university (Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting was history too on the Labour side from Cambridge), whereas Oxford politicians Tory or Labour or LD are almost all PPE
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
He’s a Cambridge educated lawyer, misunderestimate him at your own risk.
Suella Braverman is also a Cambridge educated lawyer.
The next Tory leadership election could herald a golden age for the Tory party and the country if Braverman and Barclay make it to the final two.
Not that I want to trigger you or anything but was just reading up on Lord Rosebery.
Between 1880-1902 all PMs went to (Eton then) Christ Church, Oxford.
"Sir! you have disappointed us! We had intended you to be The next Prime Minister but three: The stocks were sold; the Press was squared: The Middle Class was quite prepared. But as it is! . . . My language fails! Go out and govern New South Wales!"
It’s really boring on here this morning. No Russian trolls to wind up in their own logical ineptitude.
What if they were never Russian trolls but actually Chinese trolls stirring it up? Try to cause arguments and criticise the west but also make the Russians look stupid.
An awful lot of Chinese students in the UK. We have a few doing self funded PhDs. Would not amaze if some were working on the side for the state...
A Chinese colleague at work tells me that it is quite common to have at least one Chinese student in a year at uni, in the U.K., working for the Chinese government. Keeping an eye on their fellow classmates etc.
Some are quite open about it - warning off their fellow students from getting involved in anything “anti-Chinese”.
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
He’s a Cambridge educated lawyer, misunderestimate him at your own risk.
Suella Braverman is also a Cambridge educated lawyer.
The next Tory leadership election could herald a golden age for the Tory party and the country if Braverman and Barclay make it to the final two.
He's a Cambridge educated historian, who then trained as a lawyer.
So Suella it is.
Portillo was also a Cambridge educated historian, Ken Clarke and Michael Howard Cambridge educated lawyers too.
Cambridge educated politicians tend to do law or history at university (Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting was history too on the Labour side from Cambridge), whereas Oxford politicians Tory or Labour or LD are almost all PPE
Richard Burgon read English.
Which says an awful lot, and not in a good way, about their English Literature degree.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I'm pretty confident of two things. First is that the Conservatives will respond to defeat by moving further to the right. Second is that it won't go well for them. Partly because votes gained on the right will be netted out by votes lost on the left. But also becuase, however right wing the Conservatives go, the proper populists will always be able to go a bit further.
My concern is just how right wing Labour are willing to go. The new austerity of SKSs "fiscal rules" will mean another lost generation, another decade or more of the sick man of Europe, and more pandering to bigotry as a sop for declining standards of living. If SKS continues in his current path, I could see the next Labour government being to the right of the Coalition government. If that becomes the "new centre" then the Tories will be allowed to move further rightwards, and the papers and news media will launder that as acceptable as well. There will come a point where Labour lose popularity, and because of FPTP most people will only ever consider the Tories as the second party of government. So I'm not so optimistic that a rightward drift will consign the Tories to unelectablility...
If Starmer moves further to the right, the Lib Dem will fill the gap on the left (ie the centre) with pragmatic non ideological policies and treat the electorate as adults.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I hope you're right. It will doom the Tories for a generation. Under PFTP, an ultra right wing Tory party minus sensible centrist Tories stands no chance of being in government.
Depends on the economy. People thought Thatcher was unelectable against Wilson and Callaghan initially until the strikes and high inflation of the late 1970s saw her win in 1979
Thatcher had a wide appeal. She wasn't ultra right wing.
An ultra right wing Tory party, led by Braverman, would only appeal to the aggrieved working class who want to stop immigrants and all this modern stuff. They will lose sensible one-nation Tories. Tney are a fairly small minority, and under FPTP, will not achieve power.
A Steve Barclay led Tory party though? Barclay more likely to get to the final 2 amongst Tory MPs than Braverman and then beat Mordaunt or Tugendhat with members
The catch is that you need 1/3 of Conservative MPs to get through to the members ballot. It's easy to see one sensible Conservative doing that, harder to see two sensibles both managing it.
And if the last nutter standing (Braverman presumably) can gather support of 1/3 of Conservative MPs, they get onto the final ballot and then they win with the membership.
Why won't that happen?
Braverman only got 27 Con MPs votes when eliminated last summer, she has no chance.
Of the final 3 last summer if Sunak resigns after election defeat, I suspect most of the remaining Sunak supporting MPs to back Barclay, most Truss supporters to go to Tugendhat in the end or Badenoch and Mordaunt to keep her MPs who did not lose their seats
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I'm pretty confident of two things. First is that the Conservatives will respond to defeat by moving further to the right. Second is that it won't go well for them. Partly because votes gained on the right will be netted out by votes lost on the left. But also becuase, however right wing the Conservatives go, the proper populists will always be able to go a bit further.
My concern is just how right wing Labour are willing to go. The new austerity of SKSs "fiscal rules" will mean another lost generation, another decade or more of the sick man of Europe, and more pandering to bigotry as a sop for declining standards of living. If SKS continues in his current path, I could see the next Labour government being to the right of the Coalition government. If that becomes the "new centre" then the Tories will be allowed to move further rightwards, and the papers and news media will launder that as acceptable as well. There will come a point where Labour lose popularity, and because of FPTP most people will only ever consider the Tories as the second party of government. So I'm not so optimistic that a rightward drift will consign the Tories to unelectablility...
If Starmer moves further to the right, the Lib Dem will fill the gap on the left (ie the centre) with pragmatic non ideological policies and treat the electorate as adults.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I hope you're right. It will doom the Tories for a generation. Under PFTP, an ultra right wing Tory party minus sensible centrist Tories stands no chance of being in government.
Depends on the economy. People thought Thatcher was unelectable against Wilson and Callaghan initially until the strikes and high inflation of the late 1970s saw her win in 1979
Thatcher had a wide appeal. She wasn't ultra right wing.
An ultra right wing Tory party, led by Braverman, would only appeal to the aggrieved working class who want to stop immigrants and all this modern stuff. They will lose sensible one-nation Tories. Tney are a fairly small minority, and under FPTP, will not achieve power.
A Steve Barclay led Tory party though? Barclay more likely to get to the final 2 amongst Tory MPs than Braverman and then beat Mordaunt or Tugendhat with members
The catch is that you need 1/3 of Conservative MPs to get through to the members ballot. It's easy to see one sensible Conservative doing that, harder to see two sensibles both managing it.
And if the last nutter standing (Braverman presumably) can gather support of 1/3 of Conservative MPs, they get onto the final ballot and then they win with the membership.
Why won't that happen?
Braverman only got 27 Con MPs votes when eliminated last summer, she has no chance.
Of the final 3 last summer if Sunak resigns after election defeat, I suspect most of the remaining Sunak supporting MPs to back Barclay, most Truss supporters to go to Tugendhat in the end or Badenoch and Mordaunt to keep her MPs who did not lose their seats
Priti Patel will also likely stand for Conservative Leader in Opposition and will take ERG votes from Braverman and Badenoch
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
He’s a Cambridge educated lawyer, misunderestimate him at your own risk.
Suella Braverman is also a Cambridge educated lawyer.
The next Tory leadership election could herald a golden age for the Tory party and the country if Braverman and Barclay make it to the final two.
He's a Cambridge educated historian, who then trained as a lawyer.
So Suella it is.
Portillo was also a Cambridge educated historian, Ken Clarke and Michael Howard Cambridge educated lawyers too.
Cambridge educated politicians tend to do law or history at university (Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting was history too on the Labour side from Cambridge), whereas Oxford politicians Tory or Labour or LD are almost all PPE
Shame most of them don't do useful stuff like Engineering, Physics, Mathematics which require logical thinking.
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
He’s a Cambridge educated lawyer, misunderestimate him at your own risk.
Suella Braverman is also a Cambridge educated lawyer.
The next Tory leadership election could herald a golden age for the Tory party and the country if Braverman and Barclay make it to the final two.
He's a Cambridge educated historian, who then trained as a lawyer.
So Suella it is.
Portillo was also a Cambridge educated historian, Ken Clarke and Michael Howard Cambridge educated lawyers too.
Cambridge educated politicians tend to do law or history at university (Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting was history too on the Labour side from Cambridge), whereas Oxford politicians Tory or Labour or LD are almost all PPE
Shame most of them don't do useful stuff like Engineering, Physics, Mathematics which require logical thinking.
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
He’s a Cambridge educated lawyer, misunderestimate him at your own risk.
Suella Braverman is also a Cambridge educated lawyer.
The next Tory leadership election could herald a golden age for the Tory party and the country if Braverman and Barclay make it to the final two.
He's a Cambridge educated historian, who then trained as a lawyer.
So Suella it is.
All the best Cambridge people have a keen interest and knowledge in both law and history.
Good morning to all, the Chinese comments in the Global Times on Russia aren't too favourable. They sound vaguely as if they're saying Putin can no longer be trusted to be the security option, from what I can see.
"Current developments weaken political security in Russia and are taking things in the direction the West would like".
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
He’s a Cambridge educated lawyer, misunderestimate him at your own risk.
Suella Braverman is also a Cambridge educated lawyer.
The next Tory leadership election could herald a golden age for the Tory party and the country if Braverman and Barclay make it to the final two.
He's a Cambridge educated historian, who then trained as a lawyer.
So Suella it is.
Portillo was also a Cambridge educated historian, Ken Clarke and Michael Howard Cambridge educated lawyers too.
Cambridge educated politicians tend to do law or history at university (Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting was history too on the Labour side from Cambridge), whereas Oxford politicians Tory or Labour or LD are almost all PPE
Shame most of them don't do useful stuff like Engineering, Physics, Mathematics which require logical thinking.
Ducks as historians and lawyers here react.
Why? If they wanted to be engineers or physicists or mathematicians or accountants or work in industry those might be more relevant but law and history are more relevant for lawmaking and government policy. Albeit Thatcher did Chemistry of course but then did a law course as well after
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
He’s a Cambridge educated lawyer, misunderestimate him at your own risk.
Suella Braverman is also a Cambridge educated lawyer.
The next Tory leadership election could herald a golden age for the Tory party and the country if Braverman and Barclay make it to the final two.
He's a Cambridge educated historian, who then trained as a lawyer.
So Suella it is.
Portillo was also a Cambridge educated historian, Ken Clarke and Michael Howard Cambridge educated lawyers too.
Cambridge educated politicians tend to do law or history at university (Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting was history too on the Labour side from Cambridge), whereas Oxford politicians Tory or Labour or LD are almost all PPE
Shame most of them don't do useful stuff like Engineering, Physics, Mathematics which require logical thinking.
Ducks as historians and lawyers here react.
What about historians of engineering?
Asking for a friend...
I am politely going to avoid answering (just like a politician), but that reminds me of a bug bear I have which is on TV quizes where they have a science question and ask something like when was Newton born, or where is he buried. That is NOT science that IS history.
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
He’s a Cambridge educated lawyer, misunderestimate him at your own risk.
Suella Braverman is also a Cambridge educated lawyer.
The next Tory leadership election could herald a golden age for the Tory party and the country if Braverman and Barclay make it to the final two.
He's a Cambridge educated historian, who then trained as a lawyer.
So Suella it is.
All the best Cambridge people have a keen interest and knowledge in both law and history.
As, on the evidence of those two, do some of less impressive alumni.
4 new polls out today for the Spanish GE. 3 shows slight narrowing and one the other way. The broad picture remains that the PP/VOX combo on line for a tiny plurality. The final 3 week campaign starts next week.
It’s really boring on here this morning. No Russian trolls to wind up in their own logical ineptitude.
What if they were never Russian trolls but actually Chinese trolls stirring it up? Try to cause arguments and criticise the west but also make the Russians look stupid.
An awful lot of Chinese students in the UK. We have a few doing self funded PhDs. Would not amaze if some were working on the side for the state...
A Chinese colleague at work tells me that it is quite common to have at least one Chinese student in a year at uni, in the U.K., working for the Chinese government. Keeping an eye on their fellow classmates etc.
Some are quite open about it - warning off their fellow students from getting involved in anything “anti-Chinese”.
At least one of 'our' PhD students from China is so poor its either a brilliant act or she is just terrible. Possibly the worst first year viva I've ever done...
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
He’s a Cambridge educated lawyer, misunderestimate him at your own risk.
Suella Braverman is also a Cambridge educated lawyer.
The next Tory leadership election could herald a golden age for the Tory party and the country if Braverman and Barclay make it to the final two.
The only figures that I can think of who have managed to serve navigate the choppy waters of recent Tory internal politics pretty well are:
Gove Barclay Baker Shapps
I suspect one of these will end up as next leader if there is we're still in power.
After the likely ballot box pummelling we'll get, I expect someone without the baggage. Badenoch will be frontrunner, but we know what happens to frontrunners in PCP elections....
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
He’s a Cambridge educated lawyer, misunderestimate him at your own risk.
Suella Braverman is also a Cambridge educated lawyer.
The next Tory leadership election could herald a golden age for the Tory party and the country if Braverman and Barclay make it to the final two.
The only figures that I can think of who have managed to serve navigate the choppy waters of recent Tory internal politics pretty well are:
Gove Barclay Baker Shapps
I suspect one of these will end up as next leader if there is we're still in power.
After the likely ballot box pummelling we'll get, I expect someone without the baggage. Badenoch will be frontrunner, but we know what happens to frontrunners in PCP elections....
I reckon it will be between Badenoch and Braverman based on the cull of cabinet ministers at the next election.
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
He’s a Cambridge educated lawyer, misunderestimate him at your own risk.
Suella Braverman is also a Cambridge educated lawyer.
The next Tory leadership election could herald a golden age for the Tory party and the country if Braverman and Barclay make it to the final two.
He's a Cambridge educated historian, who then trained as a lawyer.
So Suella it is.
Portillo was also a Cambridge educated historian, Ken Clarke and Michael Howard Cambridge educated lawyers too.
Cambridge educated politicians tend to do law or history at university (Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting was history too on the Labour side from Cambridge), whereas Oxford politicians Tory or Labour or LD are almost all PPE
Shame most of them don't do useful stuff like Engineering, Physics, Mathematics which require logical thinking.
Ducks as historians and lawyers here react.
Why? If they wanted to be engineers or physicists or mathematicians or accountants or work in industry those might be more relevant but law and history are more relevant for lawmaking and government policy. Albeit Thatcher did Chemistry of course but then did a law course as well after
The Conservative Party shows an awareness of law and of history? That's huge news to me, given the evidence of the last seven years,.
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
He’s a Cambridge educated lawyer, misunderestimate him at your own risk.
Suella Braverman is also a Cambridge educated lawyer.
The next Tory leadership election could herald a golden age for the Tory party and the country if Braverman and Barclay make it to the final two.
He's a Cambridge educated historian, who then trained as a lawyer.
So Suella it is.
Portillo was also a Cambridge educated historian, Ken Clarke and Michael Howard Cambridge educated lawyers too.
Cambridge educated politicians tend to do law or history at university (Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting was history too on the Labour side from Cambridge), whereas Oxford politicians Tory or Labour or LD are almost all PPE
Shame most of them don't do useful stuff like Engineering, Physics, Mathematics which require logical thinking.
Ducks as historians and lawyers here react.
What about historians of engineering?
Asking for a friend...
Perfectly useful, esp. with some social and economic awareness. Look at DfT.
It’s really boring on here this morning. No Russian trolls to wind up in their own logical ineptitude.
What if they were never Russian trolls but actually Chinese trolls stirring it up? Try to cause arguments and criticise the west but also make the Russians look stupid.
An awful lot of Chinese students in the UK. We have a few doing self funded PhDs. Would not amaze if some were working on the side for the state...
A Chinese colleague at work tells me that it is quite common to have at least one Chinese student in a year at uni, in the U.K., working for the Chinese government. Keeping an eye on their fellow classmates etc.
Some are quite open about it - warning off their fellow students from getting involved in anything “anti-Chinese”.
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
He’s a Cambridge educated lawyer, misunderestimate him at your own risk.
Suella Braverman is also a Cambridge educated lawyer.
The next Tory leadership election could herald a golden age for the Tory party and the country if Braverman and Barclay make it to the final two.
He's a Cambridge educated historian, who then trained as a lawyer.
So Suella it is.
Portillo was also a Cambridge educated historian, Ken Clarke and Michael Howard Cambridge educated lawyers too.
Cambridge educated politicians tend to do law or history at university (Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting was history too on the Labour side from Cambridge), whereas Oxford politicians Tory or Labour or LD are almost all PPE
Shame most of them don't do useful stuff like Engineering, Physics, Mathematics which require logical thinking.
Ducks as historians and lawyers here react.
Why? If they wanted to be engineers or physicists or mathematicians or accountants or work in industry those might be more relevant but law and history are more relevant for lawmaking and government policy. Albeit Thatcher did Chemistry of course but then did a law course as well after
Well my comment was just to get a reaction, and just to add to the wind up, is it possible that the reason they did not do, say Physics or Maths was because they lacked the ability to do it (that is my experience). I doubt most people did their specific degrees because they wanted a career in it (with the exception of vocations eg medical degrees). They did them because of a talent in that area or an interest.
It’s really boring on here this morning. No Russian trolls to wind up in their own logical ineptitude.
What if they were never Russian trolls but actually Chinese trolls stirring it up? Try to cause arguments and criticise the west but also make the Russians look stupid.
An awful lot of Chinese students in the UK. We have a few doing self funded PhDs. Would not amaze if some were working on the side for the state...
A Chinese colleague at work tells me that it is quite common to have at least one Chinese student in a year at uni, in the U.K., working for the Chinese government. Keeping an eye on their fellow classmates etc.
Some are quite open about it - warning off their fellow students from getting involved in anything “anti-Chinese”.
At least one of 'our' PhD students from China is so poor its either a brilliant act or she is just terrible. Possibly the worst first year viva I've ever done...
Parents paid for her to get this far?
Apparently, the method the Chinese Secret Police use, is that they offer a poorer student a stipend/and or clearing social credit for them and their family.
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
He’s a Cambridge educated lawyer, misunderestimate him at your own risk.
Suella Braverman is also a Cambridge educated lawyer.
The next Tory leadership election could herald a golden age for the Tory party and the country if Braverman and Barclay make it to the final two.
The only figures that I can think of who have managed to serve navigate the choppy waters of recent Tory internal politics pretty well are:
Gove Barclay Baker Shapps
I suspect one of these will end up as next leader if there is we're still in power.
After the likely ballot box pummelling we'll get, I expect someone without the baggage. Badenoch will be frontrunner, but we know what happens to frontrunners in PCP elections....
I reckon it will be between Badenoch and Braverman based on the cull of cabinet ministers at the next election.
I mean Penny loses her seat on current polling.
Shapps also may lose Welwyn Hatfield, Gove could even lose Surrey Heath to the LDs and Hunt likely loses his Surrey seat to the LDs. Barclay's, Badenoch's, Patel's, Tugendhat's and Braverman's seats should be safe though
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
He’s a Cambridge educated lawyer, misunderestimate him at your own risk.
Suella Braverman is also a Cambridge educated lawyer.
The next Tory leadership election could herald a golden age for the Tory party and the country if Braverman and Barclay make it to the final two.
The only figures that I can think of who have managed to serve navigate the choppy waters of recent Tory internal politics pretty well are:
Gove Barclay Baker Shapps
I suspect one of these will end up as next leader if there is we're still in power.
After the likely ballot box pummelling we'll get, I expect someone without the baggage. Badenoch will be frontrunner, but we know what happens to frontrunners in PCP elections....
I reckon it will be between Badenoch and Braverman based on the cull of cabinet ministers at the next election.
I mean Penny loses her seat on current polling.
Given that no one recognises any politicians does actual recognition confer any advantage at the ballot box?
I mean Penny is well known. I don't think eg Baker is as well known, but he does have some recognition especially amongst Tories in his constituency - ie not just another faceless PPC.
Do we know if this helps/has helped at all.
I would be surprised, even with "current polling", if Penny loses her seat.
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
He’s a Cambridge educated lawyer, misunderestimate him at your own risk.
Suella Braverman is also a Cambridge educated lawyer.
The next Tory leadership election could herald a golden age for the Tory party and the country if Braverman and Barclay make it to the final two.
The only figures that I can think of who have managed to serve navigate the choppy waters of recent Tory internal politics pretty well are:
Gove Barclay Baker Shapps
I suspect one of these will end up as next leader if there is we're still in power.
After the likely ballot box pummelling we'll get, I expect someone without the baggage. Badenoch will be frontrunner, but we know what happens to frontrunners in PCP elections....
I reckon it will be between Badenoch and Braverman based on the cull of cabinet ministers at the next election.
I mean Penny loses her seat on current polling.
Priti Patel is also preparing a leadership bid if the Tories lose
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
He’s a Cambridge educated lawyer, misunderestimate him at your own risk.
Suella Braverman is also a Cambridge educated lawyer.
The next Tory leadership election could herald a golden age for the Tory party and the country if Braverman and Barclay make it to the final two.
He's a Cambridge educated historian, who then trained as a lawyer.
So Suella it is.
Portillo was also a Cambridge educated historian, Ken Clarke and Michael Howard Cambridge educated lawyers too.
Cambridge educated politicians tend to do law or history at university (Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting was history too on the Labour side from Cambridge), whereas Oxford politicians Tory or Labour or LD are almost all PPE
Shame most of them don't do useful stuff like Engineering, Physics, Mathematics which require logical thinking.
Ducks as historians and lawyers here react.
Why? If they wanted to be engineers or physicists or mathematicians or accountants or work in industry those might be more relevant but law and history are more relevant for lawmaking and government policy. Albeit Thatcher did Chemistry of course but then did a law course as well after
The Conservative Party shows an awareness of law and of history? That's huge news to me, given the evidence of the last seven years,.
You could have stopped at "The Conservative Party shows an awareness? " Frankly, I'm at the point where I don't care if an MP or PM was a shithouse cleaner or minor royalty before they got on the gravy train, I just want them to not be anything like the last 15 years or so. Competent would be enough.
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
He’s a Cambridge educated lawyer, misunderestimate him at your own risk.
Suella Braverman is also a Cambridge educated lawyer.
The next Tory leadership election could herald a golden age for the Tory party and the country if Braverman and Barclay make it to the final two.
He's a Cambridge educated historian, who then trained as a lawyer.
So Suella it is.
Portillo was also a Cambridge educated historian, Ken Clarke and Michael Howard Cambridge educated lawyers too.
Cambridge educated politicians tend to do law or history at university (Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting was history too on the Labour side from Cambridge), whereas Oxford politicians Tory or Labour or LD are almost all PPE
Shame most of them don't do useful stuff like Engineering, Physics, Mathematics which require logical thinking.
Ducks as historians and lawyers here react.
Why? If they wanted to be engineers or physicists or mathematicians or accountants or work in industry those might be more relevant but law and history are more relevant for lawmaking and government policy. Albeit Thatcher did Chemistry of course but then did a law course as well after
Well my comment was just to get a reaction, and just to add to the wind up, is it possible that the reason they did not do, say Physics or Maths was because they lacked the ability to do it (that is my experience). I doubt most people did their specific degrees because they wanted a career in it (with the exception of vocations eg medical degrees). They did them because of a talent in that area or an interest.
At A-Levels I studied Maths, Further Maths, Physics, and History.
I thought about doing a degree in Maths, Physics, or History.
Up to the age of 16 I thought I'd end up being a doctor.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I'm pretty confident of two things. First is that the Conservatives will respond to defeat by moving further to the right. Second is that it won't go well for them. Partly because votes gained on the right will be netted out by votes lost on the left. But also becuase, however right wing the Conservatives go, the proper populists will always be able to go a bit further.
My concern is just how right wing Labour are willing to go. The new austerity of SKSs "fiscal rules" will mean another lost generation, another decade or more of the sick man of Europe, and more pandering to bigotry as a sop for declining standards of living. If SKS continues in his current path, I could see the next Labour government being to the right of the Coalition government. If that becomes the "new centre" then the Tories will be allowed to move further rightwards, and the papers and news media will launder that as acceptable as well. There will come a point where Labour lose popularity, and because of FPTP most people will only ever consider the Tories as the second party of government. So I'm not so optimistic that a rightward drift will consign the Tories to unelectablility...
If Starmer moves further to the right, the Lib Dem will fill the gap on the left (ie the centre) with pragmatic non ideological policies and treat the electorate as adults.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I hope you're right. It will doom the Tories for a generation. Under PFTP, an ultra right wing Tory party minus sensible centrist Tories stands no chance of being in government.
Depends on the economy. People thought Thatcher was unelectable against Wilson and Callaghan initially until the strikes and high inflation of the late 1970s saw her win in 1979
Thatcher had a wide appeal. She wasn't ultra right wing.
An ultra right wing Tory party, led by Braverman, would only appeal to the aggrieved working class who want to stop immigrants and all this modern stuff. They will lose sensible one-nation Tories. Tney are a fairly small minority, and under FPTP, will not achieve power.
A Steve Barclay led Tory party though? Barclay more likely to get to the final 2 amongst Tory MPs than Braverman and then beat Mordaunt or Tugendhat with members
The catch is that you need 1/3 of Conservative MPs to get through to the members ballot. It's easy to see one sensible Conservative doing that, harder to see two sensibles both managing it.
And if the last nutter standing (Braverman presumably) can gather support of 1/3 of Conservative MPs, they get onto the final ballot and then they win with the membership.
Why won't that happen?
Braverman only got 27 Con MPs votes when eliminated last summer, she has no chance.
Of the final 3 last summer if Sunak resigns after election defeat, I suspect most of the remaining Sunak supporting MPs to back Barclay, most Truss supporters to go to Tugendhat in the end or Badenoch and Mordaunt to keep her MPs who did not lose their seats
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I'm pretty confident of two things. First is that the Conservatives will respond to defeat by moving further to the right. Second is that it won't go well for them. Partly because votes gained on the right will be netted out by votes lost on the left. But also becuase, however right wing the Conservatives go, the proper populists will always be able to go a bit further.
My concern is just how right wing Labour are willing to go. The new austerity of SKSs "fiscal rules" will mean another lost generation, another decade or more of the sick man of Europe, and more pandering to bigotry as a sop for declining standards of living. If SKS continues in his current path, I could see the next Labour government being to the right of the Coalition government. If that becomes the "new centre" then the Tories will be allowed to move further rightwards, and the papers and news media will launder that as acceptable as well. There will come a point where Labour lose popularity, and because of FPTP most people will only ever consider the Tories as the second party of government. So I'm not so optimistic that a rightward drift will consign the Tories to unelectablility...
If Starmer moves further to the right, the Lib Dem will fill the gap on the left (ie the centre) with pragmatic non ideological policies and treat the electorate as adults.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I hope you're right. It will doom the Tories for a generation. Under PFTP, an ultra right wing Tory party minus sensible centrist Tories stands no chance of being in government.
Depends on the economy. People thought Thatcher was unelectable against Wilson and Callaghan initially until the strikes and high inflation of the late 1970s saw her win in 1979
Thatcher had a wide appeal. She wasn't ultra right wing.
An ultra right wing Tory party, led by Braverman, would only appeal to the aggrieved working class who want to stop immigrants and all this modern stuff. They will lose sensible one-nation Tories. Tney are a fairly small minority, and under FPTP, will not achieve power.
A Steve Barclay led Tory party though? Barclay more likely to get to the final 2 amongst Tory MPs than Braverman and then beat Mordaunt or Tugendhat with members
The catch is that you need 1/3 of Conservative MPs to get through to the members ballot. It's easy to see one sensible Conservative doing that, harder to see two sensibles both managing it.
And if the last nutter standing (Braverman presumably) can gather support of 1/3 of Conservative MPs, they get onto the final ballot and then they win with the membership.
Why won't that happen?
Braverman only got 27 Con MPs votes when eliminated last summer, she has no chance.
Of the final 3 last summer if Sunak resigns after election defeat, I suspect most of the remaining Sunak supporting MPs to back Barclay, most Truss supporters to go to Tugendhat in the end or Badenoch and Mordaunt to keep her MPs who did not lose their seats
Priti Patel will also likely stand for Conservative Leader in Opposition and will take ERG votes from Braverman and Badenoch
True, though the structure of the election means that whoever of the three Right Wing Ladies survives the early stages will be confident of picking up most of the votes of those who are forced out.
The lanes for the next Conservative leadership look like being "make peace with the 21st century" (Mordaunt, maybe Tugendhat), "steady as she sinks" (Barclay? Cleverley?) and "this means culture war" (Braverman, Badenoch, Patel, Truss?). What's not so clear is which two lanes get someone into the final ballot (my hunch is 2 and 3) and who emerges as the champion of each section.
It’s really boring on here this morning. No Russian trolls to wind up in their own logical ineptitude.
What if they were never Russian trolls but actually Chinese trolls stirring it up? Try to cause arguments and criticise the west but also make the Russians look stupid.
An awful lot of Chinese students in the UK. We have a few doing self funded PhDs. Would not amaze if some were working on the side for the state...
A Chinese colleague at work tells me that it is quite common to have at least one Chinese student in a year at uni, in the U.K., working for the Chinese government. Keeping an eye on their fellow classmates etc.
Some are quite open about it - warning off their fellow students from getting involved in anything “anti-Chinese”.
At least one of 'our' PhD students from China is so poor its either a brilliant act or she is just terrible. Possibly the worst first year viva I've ever done...
Parents paid for her to get this far?
Apparently, the method the Chinese Secret Police use, is that they offer a poorer student a stipend/and or clearing social credit for them and their family.
We assume (hope?) its wealthy parents. Big problem will be the final viva, and I am very keen NOT to be the internal examiner...
Apropos yesterday’s discussion about commercial real estate - one of London’s biggest office blocks is about to be vacated by HSBC: 8 Canada Sq, Canary Wharf.
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
He’s a Cambridge educated lawyer, misunderestimate him at your own risk.
Suella Braverman is also a Cambridge educated lawyer.
The next Tory leadership election could herald a golden age for the Tory party and the country if Braverman and Barclay make it to the final two.
He's a Cambridge educated historian, who then trained as a lawyer.
So Suella it is.
Portillo was also a Cambridge educated historian, Ken Clarke and Michael Howard Cambridge educated lawyers too.
Cambridge educated politicians tend to do law or history at university (Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting was history too on the Labour side from Cambridge), whereas Oxford politicians Tory or Labour or LD are almost all PPE
Shame most of them don't do useful stuff like Engineering, Physics, Mathematics which require logical thinking.
Ducks as historians and lawyers here react.
Why? If they wanted to be engineers or physicists or mathematicians or accountants or work in industry those might be more relevant but law and history are more relevant for lawmaking and government policy. Albeit Thatcher did Chemistry of course but then did a law course as well after
Well my comment was just to get a reaction, and just to add to the wind up, is it possible that the reason they did not do, say Physics or Maths was because they lacked the ability to do it (that is my experience). I doubt most people did their specific degrees because they wanted a career in it (with the exception of vocations eg medical degrees). They did them because of a talent in that area or an interest.
That too. Just because you are good at History or Law does not mean you would be good at Science, Maths or Engineering.
The same in reverse, you are good at Science and Maths but less so at History and English.
Only a few people at school tend to get top A grades and near 100% in every subject all the time and they tend to be quite nerdy
Apropos yesterday’s disccion about commercial real estate - one of London’s biggest office blocks is about to be vacated by HSBC: 8 Canada Sq, Canary Wharf.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I'm pretty confident of two things. First is that the Conservatives will respond to defeat by moving further to the right. Second is that it won't go well for them. Partly because votes gained on the right will be netted out by votes lost on the left. But also becuase, however right wing the Conservatives go, the proper populists will always be able to go a bit further.
My concern is just how right wing Labour are willing to go. The new austerity of SKSs "fiscal rules" will mean another lost generation, another decade or more of the sick man of Europe, and more pandering to bigotry as a sop for declining standards of living. If SKS continues in his current path, I could see the next Labour government being to the right of the Coalition government. If that becomes the "new centre" then the Tories will be allowed to move further rightwards, and the papers and news media will launder that as acceptable as well. There will come a point where Labour lose popularity, and because of FPTP most people will only ever consider the Tories as the second party of government. So I'm not so optimistic that a rightward drift will consign the Tories to unelectablility...
If Starmer moves further to the right, the Lib Dem will fill the gap on the left (ie the centre) with pragmatic non ideological policies and treat the electorate as adults.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I hope you're right. It will doom the Tories for a generation. Under PFTP, an ultra right wing Tory party minus sensible centrist Tories stands no chance of being in government.
Depends on the economy. People thought Thatcher was unelectable against Wilson and Callaghan initially until the strikes and high inflation of the late 1970s saw her win in 1979
Thatcher had a wide appeal. She wasn't ultra right wing.
An ultra right wing Tory party, led by Braverman, would only appeal to the aggrieved working class who want to stop immigrants and all this modern stuff. They will lose sensible one-nation Tories. Tney are a fairly small minority, and under FPTP, will not achieve power.
A Steve Barclay led Tory party though? Barclay more likely to get to the final 2 amongst Tory MPs than Braverman and then beat Mordaunt or Tugendhat with members
The catch is that you need 1/3 of Conservative MPs to get through to the members ballot. It's easy to see one sensible Conservative doing that, harder to see two sensibles both managing it.
And if the last nutter standing (Braverman presumably) can gather support of 1/3 of Conservative MPs, they get onto the final ballot and then they win with the membership.
Why won't that happen?
Braverman only got 27 Con MPs votes when eliminated last summer, she has no chance.
Of the final 3 last summer if Sunak resigns after election defeat, I suspect most of the remaining Sunak supporting MPs to back Barclay, most Truss supporters to go to Tugendhat in the end or Badenoch and Mordaunt to keep her MPs who did not lose their seats
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I'm pretty confident of two things. First is that the Conservatives will respond to defeat by moving further to the right. Second is that it won't go well for them. Partly because votes gained on the right will be netted out by votes lost on the left. But also becuase, however right wing the Conservatives go, the proper populists will always be able to go a bit further.
My concern is just how right wing Labour are willing to go. The new austerity of SKSs "fiscal rules" will mean another lost generation, another decade or more of the sick man of Europe, and more pandering to bigotry as a sop for declining standards of living. If SKS continues in his current path, I could see the next Labour government being to the right of the Coalition government. If that becomes the "new centre" then the Tories will be allowed to move further rightwards, and the papers and news media will launder that as acceptable as well. There will come a point where Labour lose popularity, and because of FPTP most people will only ever consider the Tories as the second party of government. So I'm not so optimistic that a rightward drift will consign the Tories to unelectablility...
If Starmer moves further to the right, the Lib Dem will fill the gap on the left (ie the centre) with pragmatic non ideological policies and treat the electorate as adults.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I hope you're right. It will doom the Tories for a generation. Under PFTP, an ultra right wing Tory party minus sensible centrist Tories stands no chance of being in government.
Depends on the economy. People thought Thatcher was unelectable against Wilson and Callaghan initially until the strikes and high inflation of the late 1970s saw her win in 1979
Thatcher had a wide appeal. She wasn't ultra right wing.
An ultra right wing Tory party, led by Braverman, would only appeal to the aggrieved working class who want to stop immigrants and all this modern stuff. They will lose sensible one-nation Tories. Tney are a fairly small minority, and under FPTP, will not achieve power.
A Steve Barclay led Tory party though? Barclay more likely to get to the final 2 amongst Tory MPs than Braverman and then beat Mordaunt or Tugendhat with members
The catch is that you need 1/3 of Conservative MPs to get through to the members ballot. It's easy to see one sensible Conservative doing that, harder to see two sensibles both managing it.
And if the last nutter standing (Braverman presumably) can gather support of 1/3 of Conservative MPs, they get onto the final ballot and then they win with the membership.
Why won't that happen?
Braverman only got 27 Con MPs votes when eliminated last summer, she has no chance.
Of the final 3 last summer if Sunak resigns after election defeat, I suspect most of the remaining Sunak supporting MPs to back Barclay, most Truss supporters to go to Tugendhat in the end or Badenoch and Mordaunt to keep her MPs who did not lose their seats
Priti Patel will also likely stand for Conservative Leader in Opposition and will take ERG votes from Braverman and Badenoch
True, though the structure of the election means that whoever of the three Right Wing Ladies survives the early stages will be confident of picking up most of the votes of those who are forced out.
The lanes for the next Conservative leadership look like being "make peace with the 21st century" (Mordaunt, maybe Tugendhat), "steady as she sinks" (Barclay? Cleverley?) and "this means culture war" (Braverman, Badenoch, Patel, Truss?). What's not so clear is which two lanes get someone into the final ballot (my hunch is 2 and 3) and who emerges as the champion of each section.
If Truss is so self unaware she stands again I doubt she would get enough MPs even to nominate her, the ERG would back Patel, Braverman or Badenoch next time
Apropos yesterday’s disccion about commercial real estate - one of London’s biggest office blocks is about to be vacated by HSBC: 8 Canada Sq, Canary Wharf.
It’s really boring on here this morning. No Russian trolls to wind up in their own logical ineptitude.
What if they were never Russian trolls but actually Chinese trolls stirring it up? Try to cause arguments and criticise the west but also make the Russians look stupid.
An awful lot of Chinese students in the UK. We have a few doing self funded PhDs. Would not amaze if some were working on the side for the state...
A Chinese colleague at work tells me that it is quite common to have at least one Chinese student in a year at uni, in the U.K., working for the Chinese government. Keeping an eye on their fellow classmates etc.
Some are quite open about it - warning off their fellow students from getting involved in anything “anti-Chinese”.
At least one of 'our' PhD students from China is so poor its either a brilliant act or she is just terrible. Possibly the worst first year viva I've ever done...
Parents paid for her to get this far?
Apparently, the method the Chinese Secret Police use, is that they offer a poorer student a stipend/and or clearing social credit for them and their family.
We assume (hope?) its wealthy parents. Big problem will be the final viva, and I am very keen NOT to be the internal examiner...
As a matter of interest, do foreign students get counted in the stats for completed/uncompleted PhD degrees? The ones the Gmt likes to use to beat academics about the head, or used to before unis tightened up.
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
He’s a Cambridge educated lawyer, misunderestimate him at your own risk.
Suella Braverman is also a Cambridge educated lawyer.
The next Tory leadership election could herald a golden age for the Tory party and the country if Braverman and Barclay make it to the final two.
The only figures that I can think of who have managed to serve navigate the choppy waters of recent Tory internal politics pretty well are:
Gove Barclay Baker Shapps
I suspect one of these will end up as next leader if there is we're still in power.
After the likely ballot box pummelling we'll get, I expect someone without the baggage. Badenoch will be frontrunner, but we know what happens to frontrunners in PCP elections....
I reckon it will be between Badenoch and Braverman based on the cull of cabinet ministers at the next election.
I mean Penny loses her seat on current polling.
Given that no one recognises any politicians does actual recognition confer any advantage at the ballot box?
I mean Penny is well known. I don't think eg Baker is as well known, but he does have some recognition especially amongst Tories in his constituency - ie not just another faceless PPC.
Do we know if this helps/has helped at all.
I would be surprised, even with "current polling", if Penny loses her seat.
And yes Portillo and Patten.
There was some polling back in 2012/13 which said only 80% of the public could correctly identify George Osborne as Chancellor, apart from Dave and Nick who were higher, most other cabinet ministers were somewhere in the 30% to 60% range.
Apropos yesterday’s disccion about commercial real estate - one of London’s biggest office blocks is about to be vacated by HSBC: 8 Canada Sq, Canary Wharf.
Apropos yesterday’s discussion about commercial real estate - one of London’s biggest office blocks is about to be vacated by HSBC: 8 Canada Sq, Canary Wharf.
WFH has pushed a lot of re-assessment of office usage.
Even before the pandemic, a lot of offices had big empty spaces. Quite a few people working from home already - all the banks have gone to VMs, long ago.
This will be also part of the usual cycle of moving to a new shinier office.
Apropos yesterday’s discussion about commercial real estate - one of London’s biggest office blocks is about to be vacated by HSBC: 8 Canada Sq, Canary Wharf.
I've worked in Canary Wharf since autumn 2019 (admittedly, I haven't spent a lot of time in the office!), but there's been plenty of new towers go up in that time, although I guess some are residential.
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
He’s a Cambridge educated lawyer, misunderestimate him at your own risk.
Suella Braverman is also a Cambridge educated lawyer.
The next Tory leadership election could herald a golden age for the Tory party and the country if Braverman and Barclay make it to the final two.
The only figures that I can think of who have managed to serve navigate the choppy waters of recent Tory internal politics pretty well are:
Gove Barclay Baker Shapps
I suspect one of these will end up as next leader if there is we're still in power.
After the likely ballot box pummelling we'll get, I expect someone without the baggage. Badenoch will be frontrunner, but we know what happens to frontrunners in PCP elections....
I reckon it will be between Badenoch and Braverman based on the cull of cabinet ministers at the next election.
I mean Penny loses her seat on current polling.
Given that no one recognises any politicians does actual recognition confer any advantage at the ballot box?
I mean Penny is well known. I don't think eg Baker is as well known, but he does have some recognition especially amongst Tories in his constituency - ie not just another faceless PPC.
Do we know if this helps/has helped at all.
I would be surprised, even with "current polling", if Penny loses her seat.
And yes Portillo and Patten.
Would I right in saying the orthodoxy is that seniority doesn't add much, the only game in town is first time incumbency bonus, which goes for the most junior to the most senior and can apply from the best to the worst not absolutely blatantly woeful constituency MP.
It feels like a subset of good MPs can work their constituencies safer over several election cycles, and sometimes MPs going for senior positions have that in the bag.
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
He’s a Cambridge educated lawyer, misunderestimate him at your own risk.
Suella Braverman is also a Cambridge educated lawyer.
The next Tory leadership election could herald a golden age for the Tory party and the country if Braverman and Barclay make it to the final two.
The only figures that I can think of who have managed to serve navigate the choppy waters of recent Tory internal politics pretty well are:
Gove Barclay Baker Shapps
I suspect one of these will end up as next leader if there is we're still in power.
After the likely ballot box pummelling we'll get, I expect someone without the baggage. Badenoch will be frontrunner, but we know what happens to frontrunners in PCP elections....
I reckon it will be between Badenoch and Braverman based on the cull of cabinet ministers at the next election.
I mean Penny loses her seat on current polling.
Given that no one recognises any politicians does actual recognition confer any advantage at the ballot box?
I mean Penny is well known. I don't think eg Baker is as well known, but he does have some recognition especially amongst Tories in his constituency - ie not just another faceless PPC.
Do we know if this helps/has helped at all.
I would be surprised, even with "current polling", if Penny loses her seat.
And yes Portillo and Patten.
There was some polling back in 2012/13 which said only 80% of the public could correctly identify George Osborne as Chancellor, apart from Dave and Nick who were higher, most other cabinet ministers were somewhere in the 30% to 60% range.
I would say around 40m people would recognise Penny. With or without her sword of truth (or whatever it was).
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
He’s a Cambridge educated lawyer, misunderestimate him at your own risk.
Suella Braverman is also a Cambridge educated lawyer.
The next Tory leadership election could herald a golden age for the Tory party and the country if Braverman and Barclay make it to the final two.
The only figures that I can think of who have managed to serve navigate the choppy waters of recent Tory internal politics pretty well are:
Gove Barclay Baker Shapps
I suspect one of these will end up as next leader if there is we're still in power.
After the likely ballot box pummelling we'll get, I expect someone without the baggage. Badenoch will be frontrunner, but we know what happens to frontrunners in PCP elections....
I reckon it will be between Badenoch and Braverman based on the cull of cabinet ministers at the next election.
I mean Penny loses her seat on current polling.
Given that no one recognises any politicians does actual recognition confer any advantage at the ballot box?
I mean Penny is well known. I don't think eg Baker is as well known, but he does have some recognition especially amongst Tories in his constituency - ie not just another faceless PPC.
Do we know if this helps/has helped at all.
I would be surprised, even with "current polling", if Penny loses her seat.
And yes Portillo and Patten.
There was some polling back in 2012/13 which said only 80% of the public could correctly identify George Osborne as Chancellor, apart from Dave and Nick who were higher, most other cabinet ministers were somewhere in the 30% to 60% range.
I stand by my theory that in a poll taken after a German invasion in 1940, a non-trivial number of people would have replied that they didn’t know a war was happening.
Apropos yesterday’s disccion about commercial real estate - one of London’s biggest office blocks is about to be vacated by HSBC: 8 Canada Sq, Canary Wharf.
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
He’s a Cambridge educated lawyer, misunderestimate him at your own risk.
Suella Braverman is also a Cambridge educated lawyer.
The next Tory leadership election could herald a golden age for the Tory party and the country if Braverman and Barclay make it to the final two.
The only figures that I can think of who have managed to serve navigate the choppy waters of recent Tory internal politics pretty well are:
Gove Barclay Baker Shapps
I suspect one of these will end up as next leader if there is we're still in power.
After the likely ballot box pummelling we'll get, I expect someone without the baggage. Badenoch will be frontrunner, but we know what happens to frontrunners in PCP elections....
I reckon it will be between Badenoch and Braverman based on the cull of cabinet ministers at the next election.
I mean Penny loses her seat on current polling.
Priti Patel is also preparing a leadership bid if when the Tories lose
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
He’s a Cambridge educated lawyer, misunderestimate him at your own risk.
Suella Braverman is also a Cambridge educated lawyer.
The next Tory leadership election could herald a golden age for the Tory party and the country if Braverman and Barclay make it to the final two.
He's a Cambridge educated historian, who then trained as a lawyer.
So Suella it is.
Portillo was also a Cambridge educated historian, Ken Clarke and Michael Howard Cambridge educated lawyers too.
Cambridge educated politicians tend to do law or history at university (Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting was history too on the Labour side from Cambridge), whereas Oxford politicians Tory or Labour or LD are almost all PPE
Shame most of them don't do useful stuff like Engineering, Physics, Mathematics which require logical thinking.
Ducks as historians and lawyers here react.
Why? If they wanted to be engineers or physicists or mathematicians or accountants or work in industry those might be more relevant but law and history are more relevant for lawmaking and government policy. Albeit Thatcher did Chemistry of course but then did a law course as well after
Well my comment was just to get a reaction, and just to add to the wind up, is it possible that the reason they did not do, say Physics or Maths was because they lacked the ability to do it (that is my experience). I doubt most people did their specific degrees because they wanted a career in it (with the exception of vocations eg medical degrees). They did them because of a talent in that area or an interest.
Bit of a fail as a wind up, is it not? you must think to some extent about history and the law, by virtue of being on here, and if you have thought about them and concluded that they can be practised without the exercise of logical thinking you are not going to win any awards for general intellectual prowess.
Apropos yesterday’s discussion about commercial real estate - one of London’s biggest office blocks is about to be vacated by HSBC: 8 Canada Sq, Canary Wharf.
WFH has pushed a lot of re-assessment of office usage.
Even before the pandemic, a lot of offices had big empty spaces. Quite a few people working from home already - all the banks have gone to VMs, long ago.
This will be also part of the usual cycle of moving to a new shinier office.
Gas prices in the last 18 months also has had an impact on office usage.
I mean the hope is that we don't see energy price increases again but you can never tell with Mr Putin.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I'm pretty confident of two things. First is that the Conservatives will respond to defeat by moving further to the right. Second is that it won't go well for them. Partly because votes gained on the right will be netted out by votes lost on the left. But also becuase, however right wing the Conservatives go, the proper populists will always be able to go a bit further.
My concern is just how right wing Labour are willing to go. The new austerity of SKSs "fiscal rules" will mean another lost generation, another decade or more of the sick man of Europe, and more pandering to bigotry as a sop for declining standards of living. If SKS continues in his current path, I could see the next Labour government being to the right of the Coalition government. If that becomes the "new centre" then the Tories will be allowed to move further rightwards, and the papers and news media will launder that as acceptable as well. There will come a point where Labour lose popularity, and because of FPTP most people will only ever consider the Tories as the second party of government. So I'm not so optimistic that a rightward drift will consign the Tories to unelectablility...
If Starmer moves further to the right, the Lib Dem will fill the gap on the left (ie the centre) with pragmatic non ideological policies and treat the electorate as adults.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I hope you're right. It will doom the Tories for a generation. Under PFTP, an ultra right wing Tory party minus sensible centrist Tories stands no chance of being in government.
Depends on the economy. People thought Thatcher was unelectable against Wilson and Callaghan initially until the strikes and high inflation of the late 1970s saw her win in 1979
Thatcher had a wide appeal. She wasn't ultra right wing.
An ultra right wing Tory party, led by Braverman, would only appeal to the aggrieved working class who want to stop immigrants and all this modern stuff. They will lose sensible one-nation Tories. Tney are a fairly small minority, and under FPTP, will not achieve power.
A Steve Barclay led Tory party though? Barclay more likely to get to the final 2 amongst Tory MPs than Braverman and then beat Mordaunt or Tugendhat with members
The catch is that you need 1/3 of Conservative MPs to get through to the members ballot. It's easy to see one sensible Conservative doing that, harder to see two sensibles both managing it.
And if the last nutter standing (Braverman presumably) can gather support of 1/3 of Conservative MPs, they get onto the final ballot and then they win with the membership.
Why won't that happen?
Braverman only got 27 Con MPs votes when eliminated last summer, she has no chance.
Of the final 3 last summer if Sunak resigns after election defeat, I suspect most of the remaining Sunak supporting MPs to back Barclay, most Truss supporters to go to Tugendhat in the end or Badenoch and Mordaunt to keep her MPs who did not lose their seats
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I'm pretty confident of two things. First is that the Conservatives will respond to defeat by moving further to the right. Second is that it won't go well for them. Partly because votes gained on the right will be netted out by votes lost on the left. But also becuase, however right wing the Conservatives go, the proper populists will always be able to go a bit further.
My concern is just how right wing Labour are willing to go. The new austerity of SKSs "fiscal rules" will mean another lost generation, another decade or more of the sick man of Europe, and more pandering to bigotry as a sop for declining standards of living. If SKS continues in his current path, I could see the next Labour government being to the right of the Coalition government. If that becomes the "new centre" then the Tories will be allowed to move further rightwards, and the papers and news media will launder that as acceptable as well. There will come a point where Labour lose popularity, and because of FPTP most people will only ever consider the Tories as the second party of government. So I'm not so optimistic that a rightward drift will consign the Tories to unelectablility...
If Starmer moves further to the right, the Lib Dem will fill the gap on the left (ie the centre) with pragmatic non ideological policies and treat the electorate as adults.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I hope you're right. It will doom the Tories for a generation. Under PFTP, an ultra right wing Tory party minus sensible centrist Tories stands no chance of being in government.
Depends on the economy. People thought Thatcher was unelectable against Wilson and Callaghan initially until the strikes and high inflation of the late 1970s saw her win in 1979
Thatcher had a wide appeal. She wasn't ultra right wing.
An ultra right wing Tory party, led by Braverman, would only appeal to the aggrieved working class who want to stop immigrants and all this modern stuff. They will lose sensible one-nation Tories. Tney are a fairly small minority, and under FPTP, will not achieve power.
A Steve Barclay led Tory party though? Barclay more likely to get to the final 2 amongst Tory MPs than Braverman and then beat Mordaunt or Tugendhat with members
The catch is that you need 1/3 of Conservative MPs to get through to the members ballot. It's easy to see one sensible Conservative doing that, harder to see two sensibles both managing it.
And if the last nutter standing (Braverman presumably) can gather support of 1/3 of Conservative MPs, they get onto the final ballot and then they win with the membership.
Why won't that happen?
Braverman only got 27 Con MPs votes when eliminated last summer, she has no chance.
Of the final 3 last summer if Sunak resigns after election defeat, I suspect most of the remaining Sunak supporting MPs to back Barclay, most Truss supporters to go to Tugendhat in the end or Badenoch and Mordaunt to keep her MPs who did not lose their seats
Priti Patel will also likely stand for Conservative Leader in Opposition and will take ERG votes from Braverman and Badenoch
True, though the structure of the election means that whoever of the three Right Wing Ladies survives the early stages will be confident of picking up most of the votes of those who are forced out.
The lanes for the next Conservative leadership look like being "make peace with the 21st century" (Mordaunt, maybe Tugendhat), "steady as she sinks" (Barclay? Cleverley?) and "this means culture war" (Braverman, Badenoch, Patel, Truss?). What's not so clear is which two lanes get someone into the final ballot (my hunch is 2 and 3) and who emerges as the champion of each section.
If Truss is so self unaware she stands again I doubt she would get enough MPs even to nominate her, the ERG would back Patel, Braverman or Badenoch next time
What does the selectorate look like at 200/150/100 MPs? Most of these results obliterate the red wall 2019 Boris wing entrants, and then increasingly bits of the shires, leaving veteran ERGers and surviving shire type Tories, I guess. Possibly feeling confident that the 2029 cycle will be better for them. How relevant is the size of the rump selectorate to the result?
Apropos yesterday’s disccion about commercial real estate - one of London’s biggest office blocks is about to be vacated by HSBC: 8 Canada Sq, Canary Wharf.
Is there someone on here who could remind me, what were the circumstances when Sunak deputised for the Party Leader (Cameron?) in one of the TV debates? I seem to recall it was the first time i (and probably anyone else) had ever heard of him, but when was it? 2010 or 2015?
(I have tried a bit of idle Googling, but I get deluged in things to do with the Sunak/Truss fiasco.)
Is there someone on here who could remind me, what were the circumstances when Sunak deputised for the Party Leader (Cameron?) in one of the TV debates? I seem to recall it was the first time i (and probably anyone else) had ever heard of him, but when was it? 2010 or 2015?
(I have tried a bit of idle Googling, but I get deluged in things to do with the Sunak/Truss fiasco.)
Apropos yesterday’s disccion about commercial real estate - one of London’s biggest office blocks is about to be vacated by HSBC: 8 Canada Sq, Canary Wharf.
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
He’s a Cambridge educated lawyer, misunderestimate him at your own risk.
Suella Braverman is also a Cambridge educated lawyer.
The next Tory leadership election could herald a golden age for the Tory party and the country if Braverman and Barclay make it to the final two.
The only figures that I can think of who have managed to serve navigate the choppy waters of recent Tory internal politics pretty well are:
Gove Barclay Baker Shapps
I suspect one of these will end up as next leader if there is we're still in power.
After the likely ballot box pummelling we'll get, I expect someone without the baggage. Badenoch will be frontrunner, but we know what happens to frontrunners in PCP elections....
I reckon it will be between Badenoch and Braverman based on the cull of cabinet ministers at the next election.
I mean Penny loses her seat on current polling.
Yep, she isn't a serious proposition.
Ironically, Liz T's majority means she is in a good position. Paging @DougSeal
Is there someone on here who could remind me, what were the circumstances when Sunak deputised for the Party Leader (Cameron?) in one of the TV debates? I seem to recall it was the first time i (and probably anyone else) had ever heard of him, but when was it? 2010 or 2015?
(I have tried a bit of idle Googling, but I get deluged in things to do with the Sunak/Truss fiasco.)
Well it must have been 2017 or 2019 - he wasn't an MP until the 2015 election (replacing Hague in Richmond(Yorks).
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
He’s a Cambridge educated lawyer, misunderestimate him at your own risk.
Suella Braverman is also a Cambridge educated lawyer.
The next Tory leadership election could herald a golden age for the Tory party and the country if Braverman and Barclay make it to the final two.
He's a Cambridge educated historian, who then trained as a lawyer.
So Suella it is.
Portillo was also a Cambridge educated historian, Ken Clarke and Michael Howard Cambridge educated lawyers too.
Cambridge educated politicians tend to do law or history at university (Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting was history too on the Labour side from Cambridge), whereas Oxford politicians Tory or Labour or LD are almost all PPE
Shame most of them don't do useful stuff like Engineering, Physics, Mathematics which require logical thinking.
Ducks as historians and lawyers here react.
Why? If they wanted to be engineers or physicists or mathematicians or accountants or work in industry those might be more relevant but law and history are more relevant for lawmaking and government policy. Albeit Thatcher did Chemistry of course but then did a law course as well after
Well my comment was just to get a reaction, and just to add to the wind up, is it possible that the reason they did not do, say Physics or Maths was because they lacked the ability to do it (that is my experience). I doubt most people did their specific degrees because they wanted a career in it (with the exception of vocations eg medical degrees). They did them because of a talent in that area or an interest.
That too. Just because you are good at History or Law does not mean you would be good at Science, Maths or Engineering.
The same in reverse, you are good at Science and Maths but less so at History and English.
Only a few people at school tend to get top A grades and near 100% in every subject all the time and they tend to be quite nerdy
Re the middle para, that is not my experience. Most students who are good at the sciences are also good at other topics as well but are drawn to the sciences because they can do stuff others can't. I certainly could have picked history or geography for instance (my teachers wanted me to). Even when you drill down in to the sciences you tend to get that focus with the more mathematically able focusing down on the more mathematical subjects and not because they can't do the other stuff, but because they can do stuff others can't.
One thing that is noticeable with Doctors (who tend to be very good across the sciences, but not focused down on the more mathematical stuff) is they often have a very broad spectrum of ability across non science subjects and they are not usually nerdy either.
So assuming scientists and mathematicians do science because they are less good at History and English I believe is wrong. They do it because they can do stuff others can't do.
Is there someone on here who could remind me, what were the circumstances when Sunak deputised for the Party Leader (Cameron?) in one of the TV debates? I seem to recall it was the first time i (and probably anyone else) had ever heard of him, but when was it? 2010 or 2015?
(I have tried a bit of idle Googling, but I get deluged in things to do with the Sunak/Truss fiasco.)
Well it must have been 2017 or 2019 - he wasn't an MP until the 2015 election (replacing Hague in Richmond(Yorks).
Good point, thank you! (My knowledge of British politics 1974 - 2010 is encyclopaedic, but after that it's just a blur.)
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I'm pretty confident of two things. First is that the Conservatives will respond to defeat by moving further to the right. Second is that it won't go well for them. Partly because votes gained on the right will be netted out by votes lost on the left. But also becuase, however right wing the Conservatives go, the proper populists will always be able to go a bit further.
My concern is just how right wing Labour are willing to go. The new austerity of SKSs "fiscal rules" will mean another lost generation, another decade or more of the sick man of Europe, and more pandering to bigotry as a sop for declining standards of living. If SKS continues in his current path, I could see the next Labour government being to the right of the Coalition government. If that becomes the "new centre" then the Tories will be allowed to move further rightwards, and the papers and news media will launder that as acceptable as well. There will come a point where Labour lose popularity, and because of FPTP most people will only ever consider the Tories as the second party of government. So I'm not so optimistic that a rightward drift will consign the Tories to unelectablility...
If Starmer moves further to the right, the Lib Dem will fill the gap on the left (ie the centre) with pragmatic non ideological policies and treat the electorate as adults.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I hope you're right. It will doom the Tories for a generation. Under PFTP, an ultra right wing Tory party minus sensible centrist Tories stands no chance of being in government.
Depends on the economy. People thought Thatcher was unelectable against Wilson and Callaghan initially until the strikes and high inflation of the late 1970s saw her win in 1979
Thatcher had a wide appeal. She wasn't ultra right wing.
An ultra right wing Tory party, led by Braverman, would only appeal to the aggrieved working class who want to stop immigrants and all this modern stuff. They will lose sensible one-nation Tories. Tney are a fairly small minority, and under FPTP, will not achieve power.
A Steve Barclay led Tory party though? Barclay more likely to get to the final 2 amongst Tory MPs than Braverman and then beat Mordaunt or Tugendhat with members
The catch is that you need 1/3 of Conservative MPs to get through to the members ballot. It's easy to see one sensible Conservative doing that, harder to see two sensibles both managing it.
And if the last nutter standing (Braverman presumably) can gather support of 1/3 of Conservative MPs, they get onto the final ballot and then they win with the membership.
Why won't that happen?
Braverman only got 27 Con MPs votes when eliminated last summer, she has no chance.
Of the final 3 last summer if Sunak resigns after election defeat, I suspect most of the remaining Sunak supporting MPs to back Barclay, most Truss supporters to go to Tugendhat in the end or Badenoch and Mordaunt to keep her MPs who did not lose their seats
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I'm pretty confident of two things. First is that the Conservatives will respond to defeat by moving further to the right. Second is that it won't go well for them. Partly because votes gained on the right will be netted out by votes lost on the left. But also becuase, however right wing the Conservatives go, the proper populists will always be able to go a bit further.
My concern is just how right wing Labour are willing to go. The new austerity of SKSs "fiscal rules" will mean another lost generation, another decade or more of the sick man of Europe, and more pandering to bigotry as a sop for declining standards of living. If SKS continues in his current path, I could see the next Labour government being to the right of the Coalition government. If that becomes the "new centre" then the Tories will be allowed to move further rightwards, and the papers and news media will launder that as acceptable as well. There will come a point where Labour lose popularity, and because of FPTP most people will only ever consider the Tories as the second party of government. So I'm not so optimistic that a rightward drift will consign the Tories to unelectablility...
If Starmer moves further to the right, the Lib Dem will fill the gap on the left (ie the centre) with pragmatic non ideological policies and treat the electorate as adults.
That's probably a good thing for the Tory party in the long run. I know it loses you the next election but you're going to lose it anyway.
The party needs to be rid of the right wing Corbynistas in order to return to true Conservatism and attract back all the departed members and supporters.
Sunak needs to do a Starmer, but he lacks the courage. Who will do it? My money is on Penny after the next election.
Under FPTP it isn't. You need rightwingers in Opposition to form a strong opposition to a Labour government.
Say what you like about Corbyn but he got 32% in 2017 and 39% in 2019, even if he turned off centrist swing voters he rallied the left behind him.
Now Sunak's Tories are polling under 30% having lost much of the right to Reform UK as well as the centrist swing voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs.
The idea the Tories are going to move even more to the centre if Sunak and Hunt lose is absurd, they will be seen as having lost precisely because they were too wet and centrist and the party will move further right in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform UK. Mordaunt is too woke for the members
I hope you're right. It will doom the Tories for a generation. Under PFTP, an ultra right wing Tory party minus sensible centrist Tories stands no chance of being in government.
Depends on the economy. People thought Thatcher was unelectable against Wilson and Callaghan initially until the strikes and high inflation of the late 1970s saw her win in 1979
Thatcher had a wide appeal. She wasn't ultra right wing.
An ultra right wing Tory party, led by Braverman, would only appeal to the aggrieved working class who want to stop immigrants and all this modern stuff. They will lose sensible one-nation Tories. Tney are a fairly small minority, and under FPTP, will not achieve power.
A Steve Barclay led Tory party though? Barclay more likely to get to the final 2 amongst Tory MPs than Braverman and then beat Mordaunt or Tugendhat with members
The catch is that you need 1/3 of Conservative MPs to get through to the members ballot. It's easy to see one sensible Conservative doing that, harder to see two sensibles both managing it.
And if the last nutter standing (Braverman presumably) can gather support of 1/3 of Conservative MPs, they get onto the final ballot and then they win with the membership.
Why won't that happen?
Braverman only got 27 Con MPs votes when eliminated last summer, she has no chance.
Of the final 3 last summer if Sunak resigns after election defeat, I suspect most of the remaining Sunak supporting MPs to back Barclay, most Truss supporters to go to Tugendhat in the end or Badenoch and Mordaunt to keep her MPs who did not lose their seats
Priti Patel will also likely stand for Conservative Leader in Opposition and will take ERG votes from Braverman and Badenoch
True, though the structure of the election means that whoever of the three Right Wing Ladies survives the early stages will be confident of picking up most of the votes of those who are forced out.
The lanes for the next Conservative leadership look like being "make peace with the 21st century" (Mordaunt, maybe Tugendhat), "steady as she sinks" (Barclay? Cleverley?) and "this means culture war" (Braverman, Badenoch, Patel, Truss?). What's not so clear is which two lanes get someone into the final ballot (my hunch is 2 and 3) and who emerges as the champion of each section.
If Truss is so self unaware she stands again I doubt she would get enough MPs even to nominate her, the ERG would back Patel, Braverman or Badenoch next time
What does the selectorate look like at 200/150/100 MPs? Most of these results obliterate the red wall 2019 Boris wing entrants, and then increasingly bits of the shires, leaving veteran ERGers and surviving shire type Tories, I guess. Possibly feeling confident that the 2029 cycle will be better for them. How relevant is the size of the rump selectorate to the result?
Yes the remaining Tory MPs will mainly be from Leave areas of the Home Counties and Southern and Eastern England and rural areas elsewhere in the UK, given current polls suggest a 1997 style landslide defeat if not worse.
Redwall MPs almost all likely gone even if Sunak narrows the gap
Apropos yesterday’s disccion about commercial real estate - one of London’s biggest office blocks is about to be vacated by HSBC: 8 Canada Sq, Canary Wharf.
Is it good or bad that I, as a former Cons member and Cameroonite Tory had to google Steve Barclay?
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
He’s a Cambridge educated lawyer, misunderestimate him at your own risk.
Suella Braverman is also a Cambridge educated lawyer.
The next Tory leadership election could herald a golden age for the Tory party and the country if Braverman and Barclay make it to the final two.
He's a Cambridge educated historian, who then trained as a lawyer.
So Suella it is.
Portillo was also a Cambridge educated historian, Ken Clarke and Michael Howard Cambridge educated lawyers too.
Cambridge educated politicians tend to do law or history at university (Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting was history too on the Labour side from Cambridge), whereas Oxford politicians Tory or Labour or LD are almost all PPE
Shame most of them don't do useful stuff like Engineering, Physics, Mathematics which require logical thinking.
Ducks as historians and lawyers here react.
Why? If they wanted to be engineers or physicists or mathematicians or accountants or work in industry those might be more relevant but law and history are more relevant for lawmaking and government policy. Albeit Thatcher did Chemistry of course but then did a law course as well after
Well my comment was just to get a reaction, and just to add to the wind up, is it possible that the reason they did not do, say Physics or Maths was because they lacked the ability to do it (that is my experience). I doubt most people did their specific degrees because they wanted a career in it (with the exception of vocations eg medical degrees). They did them because of a talent in that area or an interest.
That too. Just because you are good at History or Law does not mean you would be good at Science, Maths or Engineering.
The same in reverse, you are good at Science and Maths but less so at History and English.
Only a few people at school tend to get top A grades and near 100% in every subject all the time and they tend to be quite nerdy
Re the middle para, that is not my experience. Most students who are good at the sciences are also good at other topics as well but are drawn to the sciences because they can do stuff others can't. I certainly could have picked history or geography for instance (my teachers wanted me to). Even when you drill down in to the sciences you tend to get that focus with the more mathematically able focusing down on the more mathematical subjects and not because they can't do the other stuff, but because they can do stuff others can't.
One thing that is noticeable with Doctors (who tend to be very good across the sciences, but not focused down on the more mathematical stuff) is they often have a very broad spectrum of ability across non science subjects and they are not usually nerdy either.
So assuming scientists and mathematicians do science because they are less good at History and English I believe is wrong. They do it because they can do stuff others can't do.
Are you a schoolmaster? If you aren't this all sounds increasingly desperate.
Comments
Sub Brief 20260626 OceanGate Titan Submersible Conclusion
The wreckage of the Titan submersible has been located by a French ROV, the Victor-6000. At least one of the two titanium endcaps have been found and identified by the U.S. Coast Guard's Unified Team.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PaPbAxVBVaQ
Meanwhile if we're talking about Steves I still think that Baker could be the right one to be party leader. V sensible bloke, disagree with him 100% on Brexit but he seems to be smart enough to be pragmatic now that we're here.
I've bet accordingly.
As for Steve Barclay, it is faintly absurd, and being Health Secretary ought to rule him out (c'mon: even if things go well, they're going to go badly in the NHS). But someone has to do it, and once you eliminate the impossible...
Led the domestic preparations for Brexit...
Looks like the result of a failed genetic experiment involving Justin Webb and Prince Andrew.
SDMO
https://twitter.com/darthputinkgb/status/1673064133002969091?s=46&t=BXfRXqZ4RcCOdvlSgUjZSg
challengers....
Suella Braverman is also a Cambridge educated lawyer.
The next Tory leadership election could herald a golden age for the Tory party and the country if Braverman and Barclay make it to the final two.
Have I missed much or can I still leave the Do Not Disturb setting on my phone on for the next few days?
https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1672876418198552576?s=20
A provisional balance:
- 20 kittens died from the impact of the rockets.
-10 kittens with bad epilepsy attack from the shock .
- 8 cats with splinters in various parts of the body (including eyes).
This balance can changed dramatically in the next hours .
https://twitter.com/theAleppoCatmen/status/1672946998008315906
So Suella it is.
Mr. Eagles, in Russia, a cook's activities caused a little diarrhoea and a headache for Putin, but it only lasted a day or so.
Of the final 3 last summer if Sunak resigns after election defeat, I suspect most of the remaining Sunak supporting MPs to back Barclay, most Truss supporters to go to Tugendhat in the end or Badenoch and Mordaunt to keep her MPs who did not lose their seats
Between 1880-1902 all PMs went to (Eton then) Christ Church, Oxford.
Cambridge educated politicians tend to do law or history at university (Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting was history too on the Labour side from Cambridge), whereas Oxford politicians Tory or Labour or LD are almost all PPE
"Sir! you have disappointed us!
We had intended you to be
The next Prime Minister but three:
The stocks were sold; the Press was squared:
The Middle Class was quite prepared.
But as it is! . . . My language fails!
Go out and govern New South Wales!"
Only in Russia.
Some are quite open about it - warning off their fellow students from getting involved in anything “anti-Chinese”.
Which says an awful lot, and not in a good way, about their English Literature degree.
Ducks as historians and lawyers here react.
Asking for a friend...
"Current developments weaken political security in Russia and are taking things in the direction the West would like".
Gove
Barclay
Baker
Shapps
I suspect one of these will end up as next leader if there is we're still in power.
After the likely ballot box pummelling we'll get, I expect someone without the baggage. Badenoch will be frontrunner, but we know what happens to frontrunners in PCP elections....
I mean Penny loses her seat on current polling.
Apparently, the method the Chinese Secret Police use, is that they offer a poorer student a stipend/and or clearing social credit for them and their family.
I mean Penny is well known. I don't think eg Baker is as well known, but he does have some recognition especially amongst Tories in his constituency - ie not just another faceless PPC.
Do we know if this helps/has helped at all.
I would be surprised, even with "current polling", if Penny loses her seat.
And yes Portillo and Patten.
Frankly, I'm at the point where I don't care if an MP or PM was a shithouse cleaner or minor royalty before they got on the gravy train, I just want them to not be anything like the last 15 years or so. Competent would be enough.
I thought about doing a degree in Maths, Physics, or History.
Up to the age of 16 I thought I'd end up being a doctor.
The lanes for the next Conservative leadership look like being "make peace with the 21st century" (Mordaunt, maybe Tugendhat), "steady as she sinks" (Barclay? Cleverley?) and "this means culture war" (Braverman, Badenoch, Patel, Truss?). What's not so clear is which two lanes get someone into the final ballot (my hunch is 2 and 3) and who emerges as the champion of each section.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/06/26/canary-wharf-hsbc-new-headquarters-st-pauls/
The same in reverse, you are good at Science and Maths but less so at History and English.
Only a few people at school tend to get top A grades and near 100% in every subject all the time and they tend to be quite nerdy
The number of staff returning to its office has not recovered to its pre-pandemic peak of around 8,000 people.
The Bank is shrinking its office space by around 40pc after it previously told its staff it was leaving its Canary Wharf tower to cut energy costs.'
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/06/26/canary-wharf-hsbc-new-headquarters-st-pauls/
Canada Square is on the Isle of Dogs.
It is a place I frequently visit for work, so don't reply with how well you know the area.
Even before the pandemic, a lot of offices had big empty spaces. Quite a few people working from home already - all the banks have gone to VMs, long ago.
This will be also part of the usual cycle of moving to a new shinier office.
It feels like a subset of good MPs can work their constituencies safer over several election cycles, and sometimes MPs going for senior positions have that in the bag.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Square
Feel sorry for York and Sussex, who have to deal with misbehaving royals.
I mean the hope is that we don't see energy price increases again but you can never tell with Mr Putin.
Is there someone on here who could remind me, what were the circumstances when Sunak deputised for the Party Leader (Cameron?) in one of the TV debates? I seem to recall it was the first time i (and probably anyone else) had ever heard of him, but when was it? 2010 or 2015?
(I have tried a bit of idle Googling, but I get deluged in things to do with the Sunak/Truss fiasco.)
Pre COVID, there was a lot of spare space in many banks.
Ironically, Liz T's majority means she is in a good position. Paging @DougSeal
One thing that is noticeable with Doctors (who tend to be very good across the sciences, but not focused down on the more mathematical stuff) is they often have a very broad spectrum of ability across non science subjects and they are not usually nerdy either.
So assuming scientists and mathematicians do science because they are less good at History and English I believe is wrong. They do it because they can do stuff others can't do.
Redwall MPs almost all likely gone even if Sunak narrows the gap
They were also bankers for Mexican drug cartels.
When they couldn't cope with the sheer volume of cash being deposited they made wider grilles in their branches.
The only analogy that HSBC should be used for is that they are the UK's Deutsche Bank.